{ "text": "微软刚刚做了一件可能让\n模型公司很不舒服的事\n它把Openai Anthropic自研模型\n甚至其他开放模型\n全都放进同一个候选池\n再让copilot自己决定该用谁\n用户以后可能连模型名字都不用看\n可一旦模型可以随时更换\nAI产业里最值钱的部分\n究竟还会不会是模型\n2026年9月25日\n微软发布新版copilot\n增加home code和autopilot三个入口\nhome把聊天Cowork和\noffice应用放到一起\ncode让普通员工也能\n搭建自己的工具\nautopilot则是一名可以持续工作并\n主动推进任务的长期智能体\n它运行在云端\n用户关掉电脑\n甚至去睡觉\n它仍然能继续处理工作\n萨蒂亚纳德拉随后接受采访\n给这次更新补上了\n一层更重要的解释\n微软判断AI竞争正在离开\n单纯比拼模型能力的阶段\n下一轮胜负会落在产品上\n谁能把模型接近真实工作\n谁能管住权限成本和风险\n谁才有机会成为企业默认的AI入口\n这个判断直接碰到了过去\n三年最流行的一套叙事\n大模型公司不断刷新榜单\n每次发布都强调推理分数\n编码能力和上下文长度\n公众也习惯把AI战争\n理解成一场模型排名赛\n今天这家领先\n几周后另一家反超\n微软现在准备把这\n张排行榜藏到后台\n新版copilot里有一个叫auto的路由系统\n用户提交任务之后\nauto会同时考虑\n准确率响应速度和成本\n再选择最合适的模型\n简单摘要不必调用\n最昂贵的前沿模型\n复杂分析可以自动升级\n一个任务如果需要多个子代理协作\n系统还能够跨越不同模型家族\n让每个模型处理自己擅长的部分\n纳德拉甚至说\n他已经很久没有亲自选择模型了\n负责路由的系统正在\n成为用户实际面对的模型\n用户选择的是一个\n可以调度模型和工具\n还能连接数据的工作环境\n任务决定后台使用谁\n代理决定怎么分工\n个人只需要关心最后有没有完成\n这一步看起来只是\n省掉一个下拉菜单\n下面却压着一场权力转移\n过去模型品牌直接面对用户\nChatGPT Claude和Gemini的\n名字本身就是入口\n微软希望把这些模型装进copilot\n让他们在后台为每一项任务竞标\n一旦用户习惯由copilot自动选择\n模型公司就会失去一部分直接关系\n微软已经在这样做\n纳德拉提到copilot体系里\n既有微软自己的Mai模型\n也有Openai的Anthropic模型和Grok\nAzure AI foundry还提供\n大量开放权重模型\n企业可以把自己的模型接入copilot\n微软不要求客户永远\n绑定某一家供应商\n路由器会根据政策和\n任务决定调用对象\n现阶段Openai仍然占据重要位置\n纳德拉承认\n微软API侧的绝对用量仍由Openai主导\nAstra也获得了很强的采用\n可他同样强调\n所有模型都要在copilot\n系统里竞争任务\n今天领先的模型\n明天仍要证明它在质量\n速度和价格之间保持优势\n模型厂商因此会面对一个陌生局面\n能力差距足够大时\n最强模型拥有定价权\n能力逐渐接近以后\n路由系统会把普通\n任务分给更便宜的选择\n只把少数高难度任务交给旗舰模型\n模型每提升一点分数\n未必还能换来同等比例的调用量\n只要另一款模型便宜的多\n又能达到可接受结果\n企业就有理由切换\n路由权还会重新\n定义模型厂商的客户\n过去开发者会主动比较模型\n再把选中的名字写进产品\nauto接管选择之后\n模型厂商首先要\n说服微软的评估系统\n它需要在微软设定的\n任务集里证明成功率\n也要接受延迟价格和\n安全策略的联合排序\n模型面对的就不再只是最终用户\n还包括一个掌握分发的算法采购员\n这种变化会压缩品牌溢价\n一个模型即使拥有很高知名度\n只要在常见任务上\n没有拉开结果差距\n路由器路由器就可能把\n流量交给成本更低的竞争者\n旗舰品牌仍能吸引高难度任务\n但大量普通调用会被\n更便宜的模型分走\n大模型行业过去习惯\n用发布会塑造领先感\n进入自动路由时代以后\n真正决定收入的会是\n后台持续发生的任务胜率\n企业也会获得新的谈判筹码\n同一种工作能够在\n多个模型之间迁移\n采购部门便可以要求供应商降价\n或者把调用量转移给替代者\n模型接口越标准\n切换阻力越小\n溢价能力越靠近掌握工作流的平台\n微软此时既是云服务商\n也是裁判和流量分配者\n这个位置的商业价值可能\n高于单独拥有一款冠军模型\n问题随之而来\n路由标准如果缺少透明度\n客户很难判断一次选择\n究竟服务于任务质量\n还是服务于微软自己的利润\n自研may模型与外部模型\n同时进入候选池后\n潜在利益冲突会更加明显\n企业需要系统会自动选择的承诺\n也需要可查证的模型\n调用记录和成本变化\n失败重试与策略\n命中同样要留下依据\n开放模型在这里尤其危险\n纳德拉说\n开放权重模型目前在微软\n平台上的绝对规模仍然较小\n增长速度却很快\n企业拿到权重后\n可以按照内部数据进行微调\n也能部署在自己控制的环境里\n对于强调数据主权\n成本和可控性的公司\n这种自由度很有吸引力\n中国模型也没有被\n排除在整个体系之外\n微软的foundry可以托管来自\n不同地区的开放权重模型\n不过在copilot的核心产品中\n目前主力仍然是美国闭源模型\n这里存在明显的双层策略\n微软对模型来源保持开放\n对进入企业核心工作流的模型则\n保留更严格的安全和合规门槛\n模型路由只是第一层\n微软更大的筹码来自office和Windows\n也包括teams Github以及企业身份系统\n模型负责生成答案\n企业工作却需要知道\n谁能读取哪份文件\n谁有权发送邮件\n哪项操作必须获得批准\n出了错误又该由谁回滚\n模型能力越强\n这些看起来沉闷的基础设施越重要\nautopilot正好把问题推到台前\n它与传统聊天机器人最大的差别是\n可以长期运行并完成整段业务流程\n用户给出目标\n它能够打开应用和读取资料\n再调用工具把结果交回来\n它还拥有自己的身份\n不必一直借用用户\n当前会话完成每一步\n长期代理听起来很诱人\n让他整理销售线索和更新表格\n同时追踪供应链\n员工第二天回来直接检查成果\n可他一旦拿到账号和文件\n还能控制软件\n错误的代价会立刻增加\n聊天机器人答错一句话\n通常只需要重新询问\nautopilot点错一个按钮\n可能改变真实订单\n客户记录或财务状态\n纳德拉把信任称为\n企业采用最大的障碍\n企业不会因为模型在某项测试\n领先就允许它进入核心系统\n管理员需要观察代理做过什么\n限制他可以访问的资源\n为不同部门设置政策\n并在异常发生时切断权限\n每一个动作都必须留下审计记录\nagent365承担的就是这层工作\n它管理代理身份\n设置安全政策\n提供可观察性和治理能力\n微软把它放在新版copilot旁边\n要提供的远不止一个管理页面\nautopilot越能独立工作\nagent 365越接近企业\n必须购买的控制层\n这也暴露出微软真正的护城河\n模型可能被超越\n企业身份和权限体系\n不会在一夜之间搬走\n一家公司已经把邮件\n与会议放进微软365\n文档和员工账号也在里面\n在启用autopilot时\n最省事的方案自然是\n继续使用微软的治理工具\n竞争对手即使做出更聪明的代理\n也得重新解决权限映射\n以及审计和合规问题\nOpenai和Anthropic当然不会\n甘心只做模型供应商\n两家公司都在向企业产品推进\n开始提供代码代理办公\n连接器和长期任务能力\n纳德拉承认竞争会非常激烈\n也承认Openclaw一类产品启发\n了行业对autopilot的想象\n微软没有假装一切都由自己发明\n他的回应是把消费级代理\n的体验装进企业治理框架\n这场竞争的焦点会越来越具体\nOpenai能不能在企业权限上追上微软\nAnthropic能不能让Claude\n接触更多工作数据\n同时维持安全边界\nGoogle能不能利用Workspace和\nAndroid形成自己的闭环\n模型表现仍然重要\n但它已经只是整套产品的一部分\n新版copilot的三个入口也反映\n出微软对未来工作的划分\nhome负责了解情况\nChat和COWORK在这里汇合\nword Excel和Powerpoint直接嵌入\ncode负责让员工构建工具\nautopilot负责持续执行\n人类先理解\n再创建规则\n最后把一部分重复\n工作交给代理运行\n微软没有把autopilot描述成\n完全替代员工的系统\n纳德拉强调\n人应该同时留在任务的入口和出口\n人来决定目标\n也负责验收结果\n代理可以处理中间的大量步骤\n可授权和最终判断仍然不能消失\n这套边界很重要\n因为长期代理容易制造一种错觉\n它能够自己运行\n看上去像拥有完整责任\n实际上模型不知道公司的隐性约束\n也不会承担法律和财务后果\n企业如果只把任务扔进去\n等最后再看结果\n就可能在很早的步骤出错\n却让错误连续扩散几个小时\n真正可靠的流程需要检查点\n代理完成资料收集后先确认范围\n准备对外发送信息时再次请求批准\n涉及付款和删除时强制停下\n权限变化也一样\n微软说的人类在环不能\n只是一句发布会口号\n它必须变成产品里\n的暂停键和批准门\n还要留下回滚记录\n成本会成为第二道门槛\n纳德拉说的很直白\nTOKEN存在边际成本\n行业不可能永远靠补贴维持使用量\n今天很多AI产品用低价\n甚至免费吸引用户\n背后的训练推理和云端\n运行费用仍然有人承担\n补贴减少后\n客户会开始计算每一次\n代理任务到底值多少钱\n微软因此把copilot拆\n成两种计费逻辑\n日常问答和初稿适合固定订阅\n总结与普通分析也包括在内\nCO work code和autopilot需要持续调用工具\n也可能使用更昂贵的前沿模型\n这些能力采用按量计费\n管理员还能限制不同\n团队可以调用的模型家族\n查看积分消耗和剩余额度\n这套设计承认了一个现实\n一次聊天和一个运行\n8小时的代理任务\n成本根本不在同一水平\n把两者塞进统一订阅\n重度用户会大量消耗算力\n轻度用户则替别人买单\n按量收费能让价格更接近实际使用\n也会让AI价值接受更\n严格的财务审查\n企业以后不会只比较\n每百万TOKEN的单价\n他们会看一个任务\n通过验收花了多少钱\n便宜模型如果连续返工三次\n总成本可能更高\n昂贵模型一次完成\n也许反而划算\nauto路由器的价值就在这里\n它试图把模型价格成功率和\n任务难度放进同一套决策\n这也解释了微软\n为什么加入finops for AI\n传统云计算已经形成成本治理\n团队会追踪存储网路和算力使用\nAI代理带来的账单更难预测\n因为一次任务可能临时\n调用多个模型和工具\n还会因为失败重试继续消耗\n没有预算政策\n代理很容易变成\n一台自动烧钱的机器\n成本治理会决定\nautopilot能不能走出试点\n部门主管需要看到\n它究竟缩短了多少时间\n减少了多少人工步骤\n错误率有没有下降\n微软给出的理想案例是把\n过去需要12个月的复杂\n供应链项目压缩到3个月\n只有这种差距真正出现在业务里\n按量收费才容易被接受\n用户习惯也会变化\n过去员工主动打开软件完成任务\ncopilot时代\n员工可能先描述目标\n再监督系统调用不同软件\n软件界面不再是工作的中心\n任务和权限才是中心\nword Excel和teams仍然存在\n但它们越来越像代理使用的工具\n而不是员工必须逐个操作的目的地\n这会影响软件公司的位置\n过去企业软件靠\n界面和功能留住用户\n代理能够跨应用操作以后\n界面价值可能下降\n稳定接口和数据质量会变得更重要\n哪款软件能被代理可靠调用\n哪款软件就更容易留在工作流程中\n只靠复杂操作制造使用粘性的产品\n反而可能被代理绕过\n微软拥有一个天然优势\n它既控制大量办公应用\n也控制调用这些应用的代理入口\ncopilot可以理解teams里的讨论\n读取Sharepoint文件\n再把结果写进Excel\n其他模型公司需要\n一个个申请连接权限\n微软已经站在数据和操作之间\n这个优势同样会引发平台权力问题\nauto t企业选择模型\n选择标准由谁制定\n微软自己的Mai模型\n会不会得到更多机会\n某个模型成本更低\n但质量略差\n系统会不会为了利润优先调用\n企业管理员可以限制模型范围\n却未必能看清\n每一次路由的全部依据\n微软需要证明auto带来\n的便利不会变成黑箱\n客户至少应当知道哪些\n任务调用了哪个模型\n为什么升级到更昂贵的选择\n以及输出是否经过其他模型复合\n路由系统掌握的越多\n透明度越不能只停留\n在一张总费用报表\n开放模型也可能\n迫使微软提高透明度\n企业自己部署模型时\n能够掌握权重数据位置和运行成本\n闭源模型如果价格更高\n决策过程又不透明\n就必须用明显更好的结果证明价值\nauto会让这种比较每天发生\n而不是一年做一次采购评估\n纳德拉对开放与闭源\n没有给出单一答案\n他认为两者都会存在\n闭源模型适合追求最强\n能力和快速更新的客户\n开放模型适合需要微调\n控制和数据主权的场景\n企业任务足够多样\n市场很难被一种模式全部占据\n更值得注意的是微软\n对AI基础设施的判断\n市场一直担心数据中心建设过度\n科技公司投入巨额资本\n电力和芯片订单不断增加\n可AI收入能否跟上仍有争议\n纳德拉没有简单选择过剩或不足\n他把判断标准放在技术扩散上\n算力只有进入真实业务\n才能形成可持续回报\n企业用TOKEN完成工作\n生产效率最终反映到经济产出\n数据中心才有收入基础\n如果算力长期集中在少数\n热门应用和模型训练中\n大量基础设施就缺少\n足够的推理需求支撑\n纳德拉给出了一句很有分量的判断\n长期来看\n推理必须占据主导\n训练类似研发投入\n推理才接近收入\n公司可以在一段时间内用\n融资和现金流扩大训练\n但财务规律不会消失\n收入必须来自用户\n持续调用模型解决问题\n否则训练规模再大\n也只是不断增加研发账单\n这个判断会把压力传回产品层\n模型跑分无法直接\n偿还数据中心投资\ncopilot autopilot和各种行业代理\n才有机会把算力变成收入\n微软越强调产品\n越说明整个AI产业\n需要尽快证明需求\n基础设施已经提前建起来\n接下来必须有人持续购买推理\n数据中心还要面对当地社区\n微软取消部分项目中的保密协议\n试图更早公开电力和用水情况\n也说明经济影响\n纳德拉说\n公司必须获得社区允许\n不能把数据中心建好以后就离开\n微软拿华盛顿州昆西作为例子\n声称当地税收在长期内增长约12倍\n并带来学校与医院建设\n也增加了就业\n这些数字属于微软的陈述\n不能直接替代独立评估\n数据中心能增加税基\n也可能推高电网和水资源压力\n真正的账要看谁承担基础设施升级\n居民电价是否变化\n以及长期岗位数量\n能不能匹配最初承诺\n取消保密协议只是开始\n项目运行后的公开数据更重要\n监管问题也被放进同一条逻辑\n纳德拉支持建立新的AI规则\n不希望等事故出现后再补救\n他提到行业可以引入\n更广泛的嵌入式评估者\n让不同背景的人参与模型测试\n而不是只由微软和Openai\n内部决定什么能够发布\n他还希望美国与中国围绕AI\n扩散和安全建立共同规范\n两个国家都想让技术\n为本国公民创造价值\n也都不愿面对失控系统造成的后果\n竞争不会因此停止\n可最低限度的测试和\n风险边界仍有协商空间\n这部分发言带有明显的现实考量\n模型跨境流动\n开放权重可以被下载和修改\n单个公司的安全政策\n无法覆盖整个市场\n如果各国规则差异过大\n企业会把高风险研发移\n向监管更宽松的地区\n共同底线很难谈\n却比事故发生后互相指责更有价值\n采访最后回到人类控制\n纳德拉认为不服务于人类或者\n脱离人类控制的系统没有发布价值\n前沿模型进入世界之前\n企业需要投入更多测试时间\n能力增长不能自动成为上线理由\n产品团队还得证明\n系统能够被监督被停止\n也能在错误发生后恢复\n这句话听起来像原则声明\n真正考验会出现在商业压力上\n竞争对手率先发布新能力\n微软愿不愿意继续测试\n客户要求代理拥有更多权限\n公司会不会放宽限制\n季度增长需要新收入时\n安全检查能不能抵抗产品进度\n控制原则只有在这些时刻\n仍然有效才算真实边界\n新版copilot把这些矛盾\n集中到一个产品里\n它想让代理持续工作\n又必须保留人类批准\n他允许多个模型竞争\n又掌握路由权\n他承诺提高效率\n同时把TOKEN成本直接带进企业预算\n他依赖更多数据中心\n也要取得社区同意\n所以这次发布的重要性来自\n微软正在搭建的AI企业操作层\n模型可以替换\n任务留在copilot\n应用可以变化\n身份和权限留在agent\n365 价格可以调整\n成本治理仍由微软掌握\n每一层都在减少客户\n离开微软体系的理由\nOpenai和Anthropic接下来会\n被迫回答一个问题\n他们要继续做最强模型\n还是建立完整的企业工作平台\n前一条路需要不断\n投入更昂贵的训练\n并接受模型被其他平台路由\n后一条路会直接进入\n微软最熟悉的战场\n面对几十年积累的\n客户关系权限系统和办公数据\nGoogle也会成为关键变量\n它拥有Workspace cloud和Android\n具备复制这套结构的基础\n若Google把Gemini\n办公数据和设备入口真正连起来\n微软就不能只靠现有分发取胜\n企业会比较哪一套代理更懂工作\n也会比较哪一套系统更容易治理\n模型战争不会结束\n位置却会改变\n最强模型仍然推动能力上限\n可多数企业任务不需要\n每次都调用世界第一\n可靠便宜可审计的模型组合往往\n比一款昂贵冠军更有商业价值\n微软要做的就是把\n这种组合变成默认产品\n开头的问题现在可以回答了\n如果模型随时可以更换\nAI产业最值钱的部分\n会逐渐向任务入口数据权限\n路由系统和执行记录移动\n模型仍然重要\n却不再独占价值\n谁掌握用户目标\n谁决定调用顺序\n谁能证明每一步安全\n谁就能从每一次推理中持续收费\n纳德拉押注的正是这个位置\n微软不必在每一次\n模型发布中都拿第一\n只要copilot成为企业\n交代任务的第一站\n最强模型就会主动进入它的系统\n争夺调用\n竞争规则由此改变\n过去大家争的是谁能\n造出最聪明的大脑\n下一轮争的是谁能让所有\n大脑在自己的产品里工作\n这场产品战争才刚刚开始\nautopilot能否稳定完成长任务\nauto能否公平选择模型\nagent 365能否挡住权限\n和提示注入风险\n都需要真实部署验证\n微软已经把路线画得很清楚\n接下来要证明的是这套庞大\n系统能够创造的业务价值\n确实高于它消耗的算力和信任", "language": "zh", "duration": 1410.0, "segments": [ { "id": 0, "start": 0.166, "end": 1.866, "text": "微软刚刚做了一件可能让", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 1, "start": 1.866, "end": 3.733, "text": "模型公司很不舒服的事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 2, "start": 3.9, "end": 7.4, "text": "它把Openai Anthropic自研模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 3, "start": 7.5, "end": 9.133, "text": "甚至其他开放模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 4, "start": 9.3, "end": 11.266, "text": "全都放进同一个候选池", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 5, "start": 11.466, "end": 13.933, "text": "再让copilot自己决定该用谁", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 6, "start": 14.166, "end": 16.766, "text": "用户以后可能连模型名字都不用看", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 7, "start": 16.8, "end": 19.133, "text": "可一旦模型可以随时更换", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 8, "start": 19.4, "end": 21.766, "text": "AI产业里最值钱的部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 9, "start": 21.766, "end": 23.533, "text": "究竟还会不会是模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 10, "start": 23.7, "end": 25.733, "text": "2026年9月25日", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 11, "start": 26.066, "end": 27.8, "text": "微软发布新版copilot", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 12, "start": 28.166, "end": 31.966, "text": "增加home code和autopilot三个入口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 13, "start": 32.133, "end": 34.066, "text": "home把聊天Cowork和", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 14, "start": 34.066, "end": 35.7, "text": "office应用放到一起", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 15, "start": 36.066, "end": 37.533, "text": "code让普通员工也能", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 16, "start": 37.533, "end": 38.733, "text": "搭建自己的工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 17, "start": 39.066, "end": 41.733, "text": "autopilot则是一名可以持续工作并", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 18, "start": 41.733, "end": 44.266, "text": "主动推进任务的长期智能体", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 19, "start": 44.533, "end": 45.8, "text": "它运行在云端", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 20, "start": 45.866, "end": 46.966, "text": "用户关掉电脑", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 21, "start": 46.966, "end": 48.066, "text": "甚至去睡觉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 22, "start": 48.066, "end": 49.933, "text": "它仍然能继续处理工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 23, "start": 50.1, "end": 52.266, "text": "萨蒂亚纳德拉随后接受采访", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 24, "start": 52.4, "end": 53.9, "text": "给这次更新补上了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 25, "start": 53.9, "end": 55.4, "text": "一层更重要的解释", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 26, "start": 56.0, "end": 58.2, "text": "微软判断AI竞争正在离开", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 27, "start": 58.2, "end": 60.466, "text": "单纯比拼模型能力的阶段", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 28, "start": 60.666, "end": 63.266, "text": "下一轮胜负会落在产品上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 29, "start": 63.666, "end": 65.966, "text": "谁能把模型接近真实工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 30, "start": 66.166, "end": 68.966, "text": "谁能管住权限成本和风险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 31, "start": 69.166, "end": 72.2, "text": "谁才有机会成为企业默认的AI入口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 32, "start": 72.2, "end": 74.066, "text": "这个判断直接碰到了过去", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 33, "start": 74.066, "end": 76.0, "text": "三年最流行的一套叙事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 34, "start": 76.366, "end": 78.733, "text": "大模型公司不断刷新榜单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 35, "start": 78.966, "end": 81.266, "text": "每次发布都强调推理分数", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 36, "start": 81.3, "end": 83.466, "text": "编码能力和上下文长度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 37, "start": 83.8, "end": 85.566, "text": "公众也习惯把AI战争", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 38, "start": 85.566, "end": 87.7, "text": "理解成一场模型排名赛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 39, "start": 87.9, "end": 88.966, "text": "今天这家领先", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 40, "start": 88.966, "end": 90.933, "text": "几周后另一家反超", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 41, "start": 91.3, "end": 92.866, "text": "微软现在准备把这", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 42, "start": 92.866, "end": 94.7, "text": "张排行榜藏到后台", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 43, "start": 94.8, "end": 97.9, "text": "新版copilot里有一个叫auto的路由系统", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 44, "start": 98.533, "end": 100.2, "text": "用户提交任务之后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 45, "start": 100.533, "end": 101.933, "text": "auto会同时考虑", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 46, "start": 101.933, "end": 104.533, "text": "准确率响应速度和成本", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 47, "start": 104.9, "end": 106.766, "text": "再选择最合适的模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 48, "start": 107.0, "end": 108.7, "text": "简单摘要不必调用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 49, "start": 108.7, "end": 110.333, "text": "最昂贵的前沿模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 50, "start": 110.666, "end": 112.7, "text": "复杂分析可以自动升级", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 51, "start": 112.8, "end": 115.7, "text": "一个任务如果需要多个子代理协作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 52, "start": 116.066, "end": 118.6, "text": "系统还能够跨越不同模型家族", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 53, "start": 118.8, "end": 121.533, "text": "让每个模型处理自己擅长的部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 54, "start": 121.766, "end": 123.1, "text": "纳德拉甚至说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 55, "start": 123.133, "end": 125.766, "text": "他已经很久没有亲自选择模型了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 56, "start": 126.133, "end": 127.666, "text": "负责路由的系统正在", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 57, "start": 127.666, "end": 129.8, "text": "成为用户实际面对的模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 58, "start": 130.066, "end": 131.3, "text": "用户选择的是一个", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 59, "start": 131.3, "end": 133.133, "text": "可以调度模型和工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 60, "start": 133.2, "end": 135.333, "text": "还能连接数据的工作环境", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 61, "start": 135.7, "end": 137.5, "text": "任务决定后台使用谁", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 62, "start": 137.566, "end": 139.2, "text": "代理决定怎么分工", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 63, "start": 139.4, "end": 142.166, "text": "个人只需要关心最后有没有完成", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 64, "start": 142.266, "end": 143.5, "text": "这一步看起来只是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 65, "start": 143.5, "end": 145.0, "text": "省掉一个下拉菜单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 66, "start": 145.166, "end": 147.2, "text": "下面却压着一场权力转移", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 67, "start": 147.566, "end": 150.333, "text": "过去模型品牌直接面对用户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 68, "start": 150.6, "end": 153.2, "text": "ChatGPT Claude和Gemini的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 69, "start": 153.2, "end": 154.766, "text": "名字本身就是入口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 70, "start": 154.966, "end": 157.666, "text": "微软希望把这些模型装进copilot", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 71, "start": 158.166, "end": 160.7, "text": "让他们在后台为每一项任务竞标", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 72, "start": 160.9, "end": 164.1, "text": "一旦用户习惯由copilot自动选择", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 73, "start": 164.366, "end": 167.266, "text": "模型公司就会失去一部分直接关系", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 74, "start": 167.533, "end": 169.333, "text": "微软已经在这样做", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 75, "start": 169.666, "end": 171.7, "text": "纳德拉提到copilot体系里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 76, "start": 171.7, "end": 173.966, "text": "既有微软自己的Mai模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 77, "start": 174.1, "end": 177.8, "text": "也有Openai的Anthropic模型和Grok", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 78, "start": 178.266, "end": 180.666, "text": "Azure AI foundry还提供", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 79, "start": 180.666, "end": 182.5, "text": "大量开放权重模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 80, "start": 182.9, "end": 185.533, "text": "企业可以把自己的模型接入copilot", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 81, "start": 185.7, "end": 187.466, "text": "微软不要求客户永远", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 82, "start": 187.466, "end": 188.9, "text": "绑定某一家供应商", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 83, "start": 189.366, "end": 190.9, "text": "路由器会根据政策和", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 84, "start": 190.9, "end": 192.666, "text": "任务决定调用对象", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 85, "start": 192.8, "end": 196.3, "text": "现阶段Openai仍然占据重要位置", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 86, "start": 196.533, "end": 197.6, "text": "纳德拉承认", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 87, "start": 197.666, "end": 201.4, "text": "微软API侧的绝对用量仍由Openai主导", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 88, "start": 201.733, "end": 203.933, "text": "Astra也获得了很强的采用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 89, "start": 203.933, "end": 205.2, "text": "可他同样强调", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 90, "start": 205.7, "end": 207.6, "text": "所有模型都要在copilot", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 91, "start": 207.6, "end": 209.0, "text": "系统里竞争任务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 92, "start": 209.1, "end": 210.466, "text": "今天领先的模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 93, "start": 210.533, "end": 212.566, "text": "明天仍要证明它在质量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 94, "start": 212.8, "end": 215.066, "text": "速度和价格之间保持优势", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 95, "start": 215.266, "end": 218.133, "text": "模型厂商因此会面对一个陌生局面", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 96, "start": 218.766, "end": 220.4, "text": "能力差距足够大时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 97, "start": 220.4, "end": 222.4, "text": "最强模型拥有定价权", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 98, "start": 222.566, "end": 224.333, "text": "能力逐渐接近以后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 99, "start": 224.566, "end": 226.066, "text": "路由系统会把普通", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 100, "start": 226.066, "end": 228.2, "text": "任务分给更便宜的选择", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 101, "start": 228.766, "end": 231.933, "text": "只把少数高难度任务交给旗舰模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 102, "start": 232.2, "end": 233.9, "text": "模型每提升一点分数", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 103, "start": 233.9, "end": 236.6, "text": "未必还能换来同等比例的调用量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 104, "start": 236.733, "end": 238.7, "text": "只要另一款模型便宜的多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 105, "start": 238.7, "end": 240.566, "text": "又能达到可接受结果", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 106, "start": 240.733, "end": 242.3, "text": "企业就有理由切换", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 107, "start": 242.566, "end": 243.8, "text": "路由权还会重新", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 108, "start": 243.8, "end": 245.933, "text": "定义模型厂商的客户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 109, "start": 246.566, "end": 249.0, "text": "过去开发者会主动比较模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 110, "start": 249.0, "end": 251.2, "text": "再把选中的名字写进产品", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 111, "start": 251.766, "end": 253.366, "text": "auto接管选择之后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 112, "start": 253.366, "end": 254.966, "text": "模型厂商首先要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 113, "start": 254.966, "end": 256.766, "text": "说服微软的评估系统", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 114, "start": 256.9, "end": 258.366, "text": "它需要在微软设定的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 115, "start": 258.366, "end": 260.166, "text": "任务集里证明成功率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 116, "start": 260.5, "end": 262.566, "text": "也要接受延迟价格和", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 117, "start": 262.566, "end": 264.266, "text": "安全策略的联合排序", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 118, "start": 264.7, "end": 267.166, "text": "模型面对的就不再只是最终用户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 119, "start": 267.333, "end": 270.266, "text": "还包括一个掌握分发的算法采购员", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 120, "start": 270.333, "end": 272.666, "text": "这种变化会压缩品牌溢价", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 121, "start": 272.8, "end": 275.5, "text": "一个模型即使拥有很高知名度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 122, "start": 275.7, "end": 277.2, "text": "只要在常见任务上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 123, "start": 277.2, "end": 278.866, "text": "没有拉开结果差距", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 124, "start": 279.3, "end": 280.4, "text": "路由器路由器就可能把", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 125, "start": 280.4, "end": 282.933, "text": "流量交给成本更低的竞争者", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 126, "start": 283.1, "end": 285.4, "text": "旗舰品牌仍能吸引高难度任务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 127, "start": 285.5, "end": 287.266, "text": "但大量普通调用会被", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 128, "start": 287.266, "end": 288.866, "text": "更便宜的模型分走", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 129, "start": 288.9, "end": 290.566, "text": "大模型行业过去习惯", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 130, "start": 290.566, "end": 292.566, "text": "用发布会塑造领先感", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 131, "start": 292.7, "end": 294.766, "text": "进入自动路由时代以后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 132, "start": 294.866, "end": 296.566, "text": "真正决定收入的会是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 133, "start": 296.566, "end": 298.8, "text": "后台持续发生的任务胜率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 134, "start": 299.133, "end": 301.5, "text": "企业也会获得新的谈判筹码", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 135, "start": 301.666, "end": 302.9, "text": "同一种工作能够在", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 136, "start": 302.9, "end": 304.4, "text": "多个模型之间迁移", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 137, "start": 304.766, "end": 307.3, "text": "采购部门便可以要求供应商降价", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 138, "start": 307.366, "end": 309.733, "text": "或者把调用量转移给替代者", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 139, "start": 310.166, "end": 311.766, "text": "模型接口越标准", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 140, "start": 311.866, "end": 313.333, "text": "切换阻力越小", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 141, "start": 313.533, "end": 316.566, "text": "溢价能力越靠近掌握工作流的平台", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 142, "start": 316.8, "end": 318.866, "text": "微软此时既是云服务商", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 143, "start": 318.866, "end": 320.9, "text": "也是裁判和流量分配者", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 144, "start": 321.066, "end": 322.866, "text": "这个位置的商业价值可能", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 145, "start": 322.866, "end": 325.4, "text": "高于单独拥有一款冠军模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 146, "start": 325.533, "end": 326.933, "text": "问题随之而来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 147, "start": 327.466, "end": 329.466, "text": "路由标准如果缺少透明度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 148, "start": 329.5, "end": 331.366, "text": "客户很难判断一次选择", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 149, "start": 331.366, "end": 333.133, "text": "究竟服务于任务质量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 150, "start": 333.266, "end": 335.466, "text": "还是服务于微软自己的利润", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 151, "start": 335.7, "end": 337.8, "text": "自研may模型与外部模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 152, "start": 337.8, "end": 339.666, "text": "同时进入候选池后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 153, "start": 339.9, "end": 342.066, "text": "潜在利益冲突会更加明显", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 154, "start": 342.2, "end": 344.966, "text": "企业需要系统会自动选择的承诺", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 155, "start": 345.733, "end": 347.366, "text": "也需要可查证的模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 156, "start": 347.366, "end": 349.466, "text": "调用记录和成本变化", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 157, "start": 350.066, "end": 351.566, "text": "失败重试与策略", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 158, "start": 351.566, "end": 353.466, "text": "命中同样要留下依据", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 159, "start": 353.666, "end": 355.8, "text": "开放模型在这里尤其危险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 160, "start": 356.1, "end": 357.166, "text": "纳德拉说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 161, "start": 357.266, "end": 359.6, "text": "开放权重模型目前在微软", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 162, "start": 359.6, "end": 362.066, "text": "平台上的绝对规模仍然较小", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 163, "start": 362.133, "end": 363.733, "text": "增长速度却很快", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 164, "start": 364.066, "end": 365.566, "text": "企业拿到权重后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 165, "start": 365.6, "end": 368.166, "text": "可以按照内部数据进行微调", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 166, "start": 368.366, "end": 371.0, "text": "也能部署在自己控制的环境里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 167, "start": 371.266, "end": 372.9, "text": "对于强调数据主权", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 168, "start": 373.0, "end": 375.0, "text": "成本和可控性的公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 169, "start": 375.166, "end": 377.133, "text": "这种自由度很有吸引力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 170, "start": 377.3, "end": 378.6, "text": "中国模型也没有被", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 171, "start": 378.6, "end": 380.466, "text": "排除在整个体系之外", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 172, "start": 380.6, "end": 382.533, "text": "微软的foundry可以托管来自", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 173, "start": 382.533, "end": 384.733, "text": "不同地区的开放权重模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 174, "start": 385.133, "end": 387.533, "text": "不过在copilot的核心产品中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 175, "start": 387.6, "end": 390.3, "text": "目前主力仍然是美国闭源模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 176, "start": 390.366, "end": 392.466, "text": "这里存在明显的双层策略", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 177, "start": 392.666, "end": 395.166, "text": "微软对模型来源保持开放", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 178, "start": 395.6, "end": 398.666, "text": "对进入企业核心工作流的模型则", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 179, "start": 398.666, "end": 401.5, "text": "保留更严格的安全和合规门槛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 180, "start": 401.733, "end": 403.366, "text": "模型路由只是第一层", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 181, "start": 404.133, "end": 406.466, "text": "微软更大的筹码来自office和Windows", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 182, "start": 406.8, "end": 410.666, "text": "也包括teams Github以及企业身份系统", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 183, "start": 410.8, "end": 412.4, "text": "模型负责生成答案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 184, "start": 412.6, "end": 414.2, "text": "企业工作却需要知道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 185, "start": 414.2, "end": 415.933, "text": "谁能读取哪份文件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 186, "start": 416.133, "end": 417.733, "text": "谁有权发送邮件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 187, "start": 418.1, "end": 420.066, "text": "哪项操作必须获得批准", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 188, "start": 420.266, "end": 422.333, "text": "出了错误又该由谁回滚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 189, "start": 422.566, "end": 424.0, "text": "模型能力越强", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 190, "start": 424.133, "end": 427.3, "text": "这些看起来沉闷的基础设施越重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 191, "start": 427.533, "end": 430.266, "text": "autopilot正好把问题推到台前", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 192, "start": 430.566, "end": 433.5, "text": "它与传统聊天机器人最大的差别是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 193, "start": 433.5, "end": 436.6, "text": "可以长期运行并完成整段业务流程", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 194, "start": 436.766, "end": 438.066, "text": "用户给出目标", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 195, "start": 438.2, "end": 440.333, "text": "它能够打开应用和读取资料", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 196, "start": 440.366, "end": 442.8, "text": "再调用工具把结果交回来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 197, "start": 442.9, "end": 444.366, "text": "它还拥有自己的身份", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 198, "start": 444.4, "end": 445.7, "text": "不必一直借用用户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 199, "start": 445.7, "end": 447.566, "text": "当前会话完成每一步", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 200, "start": 447.766, "end": 449.8, "text": "长期代理听起来很诱人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 201, "start": 450.366, "end": 453.266, "text": "让他整理销售线索和更新表格", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 202, "start": 453.6, "end": 455.166, "text": "同时追踪供应链", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 203, "start": 455.4, "end": 458.1, "text": "员工第二天回来直接检查成果", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 204, "start": 458.133, "end": 460.133, "text": "可他一旦拿到账号和文件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 205, "start": 460.133, "end": 461.533, "text": "还能控制软件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 206, "start": 461.8, "end": 463.866, "text": "错误的代价会立刻增加", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 207, "start": 463.966, "end": 465.966, "text": "聊天机器人答错一句话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 208, "start": 466.133, "end": 468.3, "text": "通常只需要重新询问", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 209, "start": 468.9, "end": 470.766, "text": "autopilot点错一个按钮", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 210, "start": 470.9, "end": 472.733, "text": "可能改变真实订单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 211, "start": 472.866, "end": 474.766, "text": "客户记录或财务状态", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 212, "start": 475.0, "end": 476.8, "text": "纳德拉把信任称为", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 213, "start": 476.8, "end": 478.7, "text": "企业采用最大的障碍", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 214, "start": 479.533, "end": 481.9, "text": "企业不会因为模型在某项测试", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 215, "start": 481.9, "end": 484.533, "text": "领先就允许它进入核心系统", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 216, "start": 484.733, "end": 487.066, "text": "管理员需要观察代理做过什么", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 217, "start": 487.566, "end": 489.4, "text": "限制他可以访问的资源", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 218, "start": 489.733, "end": 491.666, "text": "为不同部门设置政策", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 219, "start": 491.666, "end": 494.1, "text": "并在异常发生时切断权限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 220, "start": 494.266, "end": 496.966, "text": "每一个动作都必须留下审计记录", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 221, "start": 497.166, "end": 500.533, "text": "agent365承担的就是这层工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 222, "start": 500.666, "end": 502.3, "text": "它管理代理身份", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 223, "start": 502.333, "end": 503.666, "text": "设置安全政策", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 224, "start": 503.666, "end": 505.933, "text": "提供可观察性和治理能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 225, "start": 506.166, "end": 508.666, "text": "微软把它放在新版copilot旁边", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 226, "start": 508.666, "end": 511.2, "text": "要提供的远不止一个管理页面", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 227, "start": 511.333, "end": 513.266, "text": "autopilot越能独立工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 228, "start": 513.5, "end": 515.866, "text": "agent 365越接近企业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 229, "start": 515.866, "end": 517.3, "text": "必须购买的控制层", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 230, "start": 517.4, "end": 519.966, "text": "这也暴露出微软真正的护城河", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 231, "start": 520.866, "end": 522.333, "text": "模型可能被超越", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 232, "start": 522.8, "end": 524.4, "text": "企业身份和权限体系", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 233, "start": 524.4, "end": 526.133, "text": "不会在一夜之间搬走", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 234, "start": 526.166, "end": 527.733, "text": "一家公司已经把邮件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 235, "start": 527.733, "end": 530.1, "text": "与会议放进微软365", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 236, "start": 530.333, "end": 532.666, "text": "文档和员工账号也在里面", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 237, "start": 532.966, "end": 534.766, "text": "在启用autopilot时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 238, "start": 534.8, "end": 536.566, "text": "最省事的方案自然是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 239, "start": 536.566, "end": 538.733, "text": "继续使用微软的治理工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 240, "start": 538.966, "end": 541.533, "text": "竞争对手即使做出更聪明的代理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 241, "start": 541.566, "end": 543.966, "text": "也得重新解决权限映射", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 242, "start": 544.066, "end": 546.133, "text": "以及审计和合规问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 243, "start": 546.4, "end": 548.8, "text": "Openai和Anthropic当然不会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 244, "start": 548.8, "end": 550.766, "text": "甘心只做模型供应商", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 245, "start": 550.933, "end": 553.566, "text": "两家公司都在向企业产品推进", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 246, "start": 553.6, "end": 555.766, "text": "开始提供代码代理办公", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 247, "start": 555.766, "end": 558.066, "text": "连接器和长期任务能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 248, "start": 558.333, "end": 560.566, "text": "纳德拉承认竞争会非常激烈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 249, "start": 560.7, "end": 563.266, "text": "也承认Openclaw一类产品启发", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 250, "start": 563.266, "end": 565.4, "text": "了行业对autopilot的想象", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 251, "start": 565.6, "end": 567.8, "text": "微软没有假装一切都由自己发明", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 252, "start": 568.1, "end": 570.2, "text": "他的回应是把消费级代理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 253, "start": 570.2, "end": 572.466, "text": "的体验装进企业治理框架", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 254, "start": 572.5, "end": 575.066, "text": "这场竞争的焦点会越来越具体", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 255, "start": 575.566, "end": 578.866, "text": "Openai能不能在企业权限上追上微软", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 256, "start": 579.333, "end": 581.1, "text": "Anthropic能不能让Claude", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 257, "start": 581.166, "end": 582.933, "text": "接触更多工作数据", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 258, "start": 583.0, "end": 584.933, "text": "同时维持安全边界", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 259, "start": 585.4, "end": 587.666, "text": "Google能不能利用Workspace和", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 260, "start": 587.666, "end": 589.733, "text": "Android形成自己的闭环", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 261, "start": 590.066, "end": 591.766, "text": "模型表现仍然重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 262, "start": 591.9, "end": 594.466, "text": "但它已经只是整套产品的一部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 263, "start": 594.6, "end": 597.1, "text": "新版copilot的三个入口也反映", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 264, "start": 597.1, "end": 599.133, "text": "出微软对未来工作的划分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 265, "start": 599.533, "end": 601.1, "text": "home负责了解情况", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 266, "start": 601.266, "end": 603.333, "text": "Chat和COWORK在这里汇合", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 267, "start": 603.733, "end": 606.733, "text": "word Excel和Powerpoint直接嵌入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 268, "start": 607.1, "end": 609.133, "text": "code负责让员工构建工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 269, "start": 609.366, "end": 611.5, "text": "autopilot负责持续执行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 270, "start": 611.566, "end": 612.733, "text": "人类先理解", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 271, "start": 612.733, "end": 613.966, "text": "再创建规则", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 272, "start": 614.133, "end": 615.533, "text": "最后把一部分重复", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 273, "start": 615.533, "end": 617.366, "text": "工作交给代理运行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 274, "start": 617.566, "end": 619.966, "text": "微软没有把autopilot描述成", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 275, "start": 619.966, "end": 621.766, "text": "完全替代员工的系统", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 276, "start": 622.133, "end": 623.166, "text": "纳德拉强调", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 277, "start": 623.3, "end": 626.166, "text": "人应该同时留在任务的入口和出口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 278, "start": 626.166, "end": 627.533, "text": "人来决定目标", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 279, "start": 627.666, "end": 629.266, "text": "也负责验收结果", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 280, "start": 629.5, "end": 631.766, "text": "代理可以处理中间的大量步骤", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 281, "start": 632.133, "end": 635.1, "text": "可授权和最终判断仍然不能消失", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 282, "start": 635.3, "end": 636.933, "text": "这套边界很重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 283, "start": 637.0, "end": 639.9, "text": "因为长期代理容易制造一种错觉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 284, "start": 640.1, "end": 641.566, "text": "它能够自己运行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 285, "start": 641.666, "end": 643.733, "text": "看上去像拥有完整责任", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 286, "start": 644.066, "end": 647.066, "text": "实际上模型不知道公司的隐性约束", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 287, "start": 647.2, "end": 649.866, "text": "也不会承担法律和财务后果", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 288, "start": 650.066, "end": 652.333, "text": "企业如果只把任务扔进去", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 289, "start": 652.4, "end": 653.966, "text": "等最后再看结果", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 290, "start": 654.0, "end": 656.1, "text": "就可能在很早的步骤出错", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 291, "start": 656.133, "end": 658.533, "text": "却让错误连续扩散几个小时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 292, "start": 658.666, "end": 660.933, "text": "真正可靠的流程需要检查点", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 293, "start": 661.5, "end": 664.0, "text": "代理完成资料收集后先确认范围", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 294, "start": 664.066, "end": 667.0, "text": "准备对外发送信息时再次请求批准", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 295, "start": 667.566, "end": 670.166, "text": "涉及付款和删除时强制停下", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 296, "start": 670.3, "end": 671.733, "text": "权限变化也一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 297, "start": 671.866, "end": 673.733, "text": "微软说的人类在环不能", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 298, "start": 673.733, "end": 675.533, "text": "只是一句发布会口号", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 299, "start": 675.9, "end": 677.266, "text": "它必须变成产品里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 300, "start": 677.266, "end": 678.966, "text": "的暂停键和批准门", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 301, "start": 679.1, "end": 680.8, "text": "还要留下回滚记录", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 302, "start": 681.0, "end": 682.8, "text": "成本会成为第二道门槛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 303, "start": 683.733, "end": 685.266, "text": "纳德拉说的很直白", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 304, "start": 685.733, "end": 687.533, "text": "TOKEN存在边际成本", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 305, "start": 687.8, "end": 691.0, "text": "行业不可能永远靠补贴维持使用量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 306, "start": 691.166, "end": 693.366, "text": "今天很多AI产品用低价", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 307, "start": 693.366, "end": 694.933, "text": "甚至免费吸引用户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 308, "start": 694.933, "end": 697.2, "text": "背后的训练推理和云端", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 309, "start": 697.2, "end": 699.333, "text": "运行费用仍然有人承担", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 310, "start": 700.0, "end": 700.966, "text": "补贴减少后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 311, "start": 700.966, "end": 702.766, "text": "客户会开始计算每一次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 312, "start": 702.766, "end": 704.733, "text": "代理任务到底值多少钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 313, "start": 704.9, "end": 707.166, "text": "微软因此把copilot拆", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 314, "start": 707.166, "end": 708.766, "text": "成两种计费逻辑", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 315, "start": 709.2, "end": 711.966, "text": "日常问答和初稿适合固定订阅", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 316, "start": 712.3, "end": 714.966, "text": "总结与普通分析也包括在内", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 317, "start": 715.2, "end": 719.566, "text": "CO work code和autopilot需要持续调用工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 318, "start": 719.6, "end": 722.1, "text": "也可能使用更昂贵的前沿模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 319, "start": 722.266, "end": 724.4, "text": "这些能力采用按量计费", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 320, "start": 724.7, "end": 726.066, "text": "管理员还能限制不同", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 321, "start": 726.066, "end": 728.2, "text": "团队可以调用的模型家族", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 322, "start": 728.366, "end": 730.766, "text": "查看积分消耗和剩余额度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 323, "start": 730.8, "end": 732.933, "text": "这套设计承认了一个现实", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 324, "start": 733.566, "end": 735.166, "text": "一次聊天和一个运行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 325, "start": 735.166, "end": 736.766, "text": "8小时的代理任务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 326, "start": 737.266, "end": 739.2, "text": "成本根本不在同一水平", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 327, "start": 739.333, "end": 741.3, "text": "把两者塞进统一订阅", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 328, "start": 741.7, "end": 744.1, "text": "重度用户会大量消耗算力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 329, "start": 744.4, "end": 746.4, "text": "轻度用户则替别人买单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 330, "start": 746.533, "end": 749.933, "text": "按量收费能让价格更接近实际使用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 331, "start": 750.333, "end": 752.133, "text": "也会让AI价值接受更", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 332, "start": 752.133, "end": 753.566, "text": "严格的财务审查", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 333, "start": 753.966, "end": 755.566, "text": "企业以后不会只比较", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 334, "start": 755.566, "end": 757.366, "text": "每百万TOKEN的单价", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 335, "start": 757.6, "end": 758.9, "text": "他们会看一个任务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 336, "start": 758.9, "end": 760.8, "text": "通过验收花了多少钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 337, "start": 761.0, "end": 763.533, "text": "便宜模型如果连续返工三次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 338, "start": 763.533, "end": 765.2, "text": "总成本可能更高", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 339, "start": 765.466, "end": 767.066, "text": "昂贵模型一次完成", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 340, "start": 767.133, "end": 768.5, "text": "也许反而划算", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 341, "start": 768.966, "end": 771.1, "text": "auto路由器的价值就在这里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 342, "start": 771.3, "end": 773.966, "text": "它试图把模型价格成功率和", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 343, "start": 773.966, "end": 776.133, "text": "任务难度放进同一套决策", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 344, "start": 776.533, "end": 777.9, "text": "这也解释了微软", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 345, "start": 777.9, "end": 780.0, "text": "为什么加入finops for AI", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 346, "start": 780.2, "end": 783.3, "text": "传统云计算已经形成成本治理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 347, "start": 783.466, "end": 787.3, "text": "团队会追踪存储网路和算力使用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 348, "start": 787.566, "end": 790.0, "text": "AI代理带来的账单更难预测", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 349, "start": 790.2, "end": 791.866, "text": "因为一次任务可能临时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 350, "start": 791.866, "end": 793.666, "text": "调用多个模型和工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 351, "start": 793.766, "end": 796.4, "text": "还会因为失败重试继续消耗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 352, "start": 796.666, "end": 797.9, "text": "没有预算政策", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 353, "start": 798.1, "end": 799.133, "text": "代理很容易变成", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 354, "start": 799.133, "end": 800.9, "text": "一台自动烧钱的机器", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 355, "start": 801.1, "end": 802.7, "text": "成本治理会决定", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 356, "start": 802.7, "end": 805.4, "text": "autopilot能不能走出试点", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 357, "start": 806.0, "end": 807.466, "text": "部门主管需要看到", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 358, "start": 807.666, "end": 809.733, "text": "它究竟缩短了多少时间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 359, "start": 809.933, "end": 811.733, "text": "减少了多少人工步骤", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 360, "start": 811.966, "end": 813.566, "text": "错误率有没有下降", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 361, "start": 813.966, "end": 816.533, "text": "微软给出的理想案例是把", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 362, "start": 816.533, "end": 818.6, "text": "过去需要12个月的复杂", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 363, "start": 818.6, "end": 820.766, "text": "供应链项目压缩到3个月", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 364, "start": 821.0, "end": 823.6, "text": "只有这种差距真正出现在业务里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 365, "start": 823.866, "end": 826.2, "text": "按量收费才容易被接受", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 366, "start": 826.5, "end": 828.333, "text": "用户习惯也会变化", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 367, "start": 828.533, "end": 831.933, "text": "过去员工主动打开软件完成任务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 368, "start": 832.166, "end": 833.766, "text": "copilot时代", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 369, "start": 833.9, "end": 835.8, "text": "员工可能先描述目标", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 370, "start": 835.933, "end": 838.5, "text": "再监督系统调用不同软件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 371, "start": 838.666, "end": 840.9, "text": "软件界面不再是工作的中心", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 372, "start": 841.2, "end": 843.166, "text": "任务和权限才是中心", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 373, "start": 843.9, "end": 847.066, "text": "word Excel和teams仍然存在", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 374, "start": 847.1, "end": 849.766, "text": "但它们越来越像代理使用的工具", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 375, "start": 849.866, "end": 852.8, "text": "而不是员工必须逐个操作的目的地", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 376, "start": 852.866, "end": 855.066, "text": "这会影响软件公司的位置", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 377, "start": 855.2, "end": 856.7, "text": "过去企业软件靠", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 378, "start": 856.7, "end": 858.466, "text": "界面和功能留住用户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 379, "start": 858.8, "end": 860.933, "text": "代理能够跨应用操作以后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 380, "start": 861.133, "end": 862.766, "text": "界面价值可能下降", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 381, "start": 862.966, "end": 865.9, "text": "稳定接口和数据质量会变得更重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 382, "start": 866.333, "end": 869.1, "text": "哪款软件能被代理可靠调用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 383, "start": 869.4, "end": 872.5, "text": "哪款软件就更容易留在工作流程中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 384, "start": 872.566, "end": 876.166, "text": "只靠复杂操作制造使用粘性的产品", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 385, "start": 876.366, "end": 878.333, "text": "反而可能被代理绕过", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 386, "start": 878.5, "end": 880.533, "text": "微软拥有一个天然优势", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 387, "start": 880.7, "end": 882.866, "text": "它既控制大量办公应用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 388, "start": 883.333, "end": 886.133, "text": "也控制调用这些应用的代理入口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 389, "start": 886.8, "end": 889.6, "text": "copilot可以理解teams里的讨论", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 390, "start": 890.066, "end": 891.733, "text": "读取Sharepoint文件", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 391, "start": 891.766, "end": 893.566, "text": "再把结果写进Excel", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 392, "start": 893.766, "end": 895.166, "text": "其他模型公司需要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 393, "start": 895.166, "end": 897.2, "text": "一个个申请连接权限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 394, "start": 897.733, "end": 900.566, "text": "微软已经站在数据和操作之间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 395, "start": 900.7, "end": 903.533, "text": "这个优势同样会引发平台权力问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 396, "start": 903.766, "end": 905.7, "text": "auto t企业选择模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 397, "start": 906.1, "end": 907.766, "text": "选择标准由谁制定", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 398, "start": 908.0, "end": 909.866, "text": "微软自己的Mai模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 399, "start": 909.866, "end": 911.5, "text": "会不会得到更多机会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 400, "start": 911.666, "end": 913.066, "text": "某个模型成本更低", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 401, "start": 913.066, "end": 914.266, "text": "但质量略差", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 402, "start": 914.4, "end": 916.766, "text": "系统会不会为了利润优先调用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 403, "start": 916.966, "end": 919.3, "text": "企业管理员可以限制模型范围", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 404, "start": 919.366, "end": 920.5, "text": "却未必能看清", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 405, "start": 920.5, "end": 922.166, "text": "每一次路由的全部依据", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 406, "start": 922.566, "end": 924.7, "text": "微软需要证明auto带来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 407, "start": 924.7, "end": 926.4, "text": "的便利不会变成黑箱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 408, "start": 926.666, "end": 928.5, "text": "客户至少应当知道哪些", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 409, "start": 928.5, "end": 930.3, "text": "任务调用了哪个模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 410, "start": 930.933, "end": 933.166, "text": "为什么升级到更昂贵的选择", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 411, "start": 933.466, "end": 936.333, "text": "以及输出是否经过其他模型复合", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 412, "start": 936.6, "end": 938.4, "text": "路由系统掌握的越多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 413, "start": 938.4, "end": 939.933, "text": "透明度越不能只停留", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 414, "start": 939.933, "end": 941.766, "text": "在一张总费用报表", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 415, "start": 941.9, "end": 943.2, "text": "开放模型也可能", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 416, "start": 943.2, "end": 945.133, "text": "迫使微软提高透明度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 417, "start": 945.4, "end": 947.133, "text": "企业自己部署模型时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 418, "start": 947.266, "end": 950.766, "text": "能够掌握权重数据位置和运行成本", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 419, "start": 950.9, "end": 952.9, "text": "闭源模型如果价格更高", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 420, "start": 953.066, "end": 954.6, "text": "决策过程又不透明", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 421, "start": 954.6, "end": 957.533, "text": "就必须用明显更好的结果证明价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 422, "start": 957.933, "end": 960.366, "text": "auto会让这种比较每天发生", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 423, "start": 960.5, "end": 962.933, "text": "而不是一年做一次采购评估", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 424, "start": 963.1, "end": 964.766, "text": "纳德拉对开放与闭源", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 425, "start": 964.766, "end": 966.2, "text": "没有给出单一答案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 426, "start": 966.4, "end": 968.2, "text": "他认为两者都会存在", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 427, "start": 968.566, "end": 970.533, "text": "闭源模型适合追求最强", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 428, "start": 970.533, "end": 972.666, "text": "能力和快速更新的客户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 429, "start": 972.8, "end": 975.0, "text": "开放模型适合需要微调", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 430, "start": 975.166, "end": 977.333, "text": "控制和数据主权的场景", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 431, "start": 977.533, "end": 979.2, "text": "企业任务足够多样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 432, "start": 979.3, "end": 981.733, "text": "市场很难被一种模式全部占据", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 433, "start": 981.933, "end": 983.333, "text": "更值得注意的是微软", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 434, "start": 983.333, "end": 985.2, "text": "对AI基础设施的判断", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 435, "start": 985.8, "end": 988.533, "text": "市场一直担心数据中心建设过度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 436, "start": 988.9, "end": 990.766, "text": "科技公司投入巨额资本", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 437, "start": 990.766, "end": 993.3, "text": "电力和芯片订单不断增加", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 438, "start": 993.466, "end": 996.1, "text": "可AI收入能否跟上仍有争议", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 439, "start": 996.3, "end": 999.166, "text": "纳德拉没有简单选择过剩或不足", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 440, "start": 999.7, "end": 1002.366, "text": "他把判断标准放在技术扩散上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 441, "start": 1002.6, "end": 1004.533, "text": "算力只有进入真实业务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 442, "start": 1004.533, "end": 1006.366, "text": "才能形成可持续回报", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 443, "start": 1007.0, "end": 1008.933, "text": "企业用TOKEN完成工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 444, "start": 1009.0, "end": 1011.666, "text": "生产效率最终反映到经济产出", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 445, "start": 1011.866, "end": 1013.8, "text": "数据中心才有收入基础", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 446, "start": 1013.933, "end": 1016.266, "text": "如果算力长期集中在少数", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 447, "start": 1016.266, "end": 1018.533, "text": "热门应用和模型训练中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 448, "start": 1018.566, "end": 1020.566, "text": "大量基础设施就缺少", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 449, "start": 1020.566, "end": 1022.366, "text": "足够的推理需求支撑", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 450, "start": 1022.733, "end": 1025.133, "text": "纳德拉给出了一句很有分量的判断", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 451, "start": 1025.3, "end": 1026.333, "text": "长期来看", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 452, "start": 1026.4, "end": 1028.066, "text": "推理必须占据主导", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 453, "start": 1028.366, "end": 1030.133, "text": "训练类似研发投入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 454, "start": 1030.266, "end": 1031.9, "text": "推理才接近收入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 455, "start": 1032.1, "end": 1033.9, "text": "公司可以在一段时间内用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 456, "start": 1033.9, "end": 1035.866, "text": "融资和现金流扩大训练", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 457, "start": 1035.933, "end": 1037.766, "text": "但财务规律不会消失", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 458, "start": 1038.0, "end": 1039.6, "text": "收入必须来自用户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 459, "start": 1039.6, "end": 1041.733, "text": "持续调用模型解决问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 460, "start": 1042.333, "end": 1043.7, "text": "否则训练规模再大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 461, "start": 1043.7, "end": 1046.0, "text": "也只是不断增加研发账单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 462, "start": 1046.133, "end": 1048.533, "text": "这个判断会把压力传回产品层", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 463, "start": 1048.933, "end": 1050.5, "text": "模型跑分无法直接", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 464, "start": 1050.5, "end": 1052.133, "text": "偿还数据中心投资", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 465, "start": 1052.5, "end": 1055.933, "text": "copilot autopilot和各种行业代理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 466, "start": 1055.933, "end": 1058.133, "text": "才有机会把算力变成收入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 467, "start": 1058.6, "end": 1060.1, "text": "微软越强调产品", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 468, "start": 1060.1, "end": 1061.8, "text": "越说明整个AI产业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 469, "start": 1061.8, "end": 1063.5, "text": "需要尽快证明需求", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 470, "start": 1063.7, "end": 1065.9, "text": "基础设施已经提前建起来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 471, "start": 1065.933, "end": 1068.6, "text": "接下来必须有人持续购买推理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 472, "start": 1068.733, "end": 1071.066, "text": "数据中心还要面对当地社区", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 473, "start": 1071.733, "end": 1074.5, "text": "微软取消部分项目中的保密协议", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 474, "start": 1074.9, "end": 1077.8, "text": "试图更早公开电力和用水情况", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 475, "start": 1078.0, "end": 1079.7, "text": "也说明经济影响", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 476, "start": 1079.933, "end": 1080.966, "text": "纳德拉说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 477, "start": 1080.966, "end": 1083.2, "text": "公司必须获得社区允许", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 478, "start": 1083.366, "end": 1086.3, "text": "不能把数据中心建好以后就离开", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 479, "start": 1086.466, "end": 1089.166, "text": "微软拿华盛顿州昆西作为例子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 480, "start": 1089.533, "end": 1092.866, "text": "声称当地税收在长期内增长约12倍", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 481, "start": 1092.933, "end": 1095.133, "text": "并带来学校与医院建设", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 482, "start": 1095.133, "end": 1096.5, "text": "也增加了就业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 483, "start": 1096.566, "end": 1098.666, "text": "这些数字属于微软的陈述", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 484, "start": 1098.666, "end": 1100.566, "text": "不能直接替代独立评估", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 485, "start": 1101.2, "end": 1103.166, "text": "数据中心能增加税基", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 486, "start": 1103.333, "end": 1106.066, "text": "也可能推高电网和水资源压力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 487, "start": 1106.2, "end": 1109.466, "text": "真正的账要看谁承担基础设施升级", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 488, "start": 1109.766, "end": 1111.666, "text": "居民电价是否变化", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 489, "start": 1111.766, "end": 1113.5, "text": "以及长期岗位数量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 490, "start": 1113.5, "end": 1115.266, "text": "能不能匹配最初承诺", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 491, "start": 1115.5, "end": 1117.666, "text": "取消保密协议只是开始", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 492, "start": 1118.133, "end": 1120.3, "text": "项目运行后的公开数据更重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 493, "start": 1120.533, "end": 1123.133, "text": "监管问题也被放进同一条逻辑", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 494, "start": 1123.933, "end": 1126.533, "text": "纳德拉支持建立新的AI规则", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 495, "start": 1126.6, "end": 1129.0, "text": "不希望等事故出现后再补救", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 496, "start": 1129.266, "end": 1130.8, "text": "他提到行业可以引入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 497, "start": 1130.8, "end": 1133.166, "text": "更广泛的嵌入式评估者", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 498, "start": 1133.7, "end": 1136.2, "text": "让不同背景的人参与模型测试", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 499, "start": 1136.533, "end": 1138.7, "text": "而不是只由微软和Openai", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 500, "start": 1138.7, "end": 1140.566, "text": "内部决定什么能够发布", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 501, "start": 1140.733, "end": 1143.333, "text": "他还希望美国与中国围绕AI", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 502, "start": 1143.333, "end": 1145.733, "text": "扩散和安全建立共同规范", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 503, "start": 1146.366, "end": 1147.966, "text": "两个国家都想让技术", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 504, "start": 1147.966, "end": 1149.933, "text": "为本国公民创造价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 505, "start": 1150.1, "end": 1153.0, "text": "也都不愿面对失控系统造成的后果", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 506, "start": 1153.4, "end": 1155.066, "text": "竞争不会因此停止", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 507, "start": 1155.166, "end": 1157.0, "text": "可最低限度的测试和", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 508, "start": 1157.0, "end": 1159.333, "text": "风险边界仍有协商空间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 509, "start": 1159.466, "end": 1162.333, "text": "这部分发言带有明显的现实考量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 510, "start": 1162.7, "end": 1163.966, "text": "模型跨境流动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 511, "start": 1164.066, "end": 1166.333, "text": "开放权重可以被下载和修改", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 512, "start": 1166.466, "end": 1168.0, "text": "单个公司的安全政策", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 513, "start": 1168.0, "end": 1169.533, "text": "无法覆盖整个市场", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 514, "start": 1169.7, "end": 1171.933, "text": "如果各国规则差异过大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 515, "start": 1172.0, "end": 1174.066, "text": "企业会把高风险研发移", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 516, "start": 1174.066, "end": 1176.0, "text": "向监管更宽松的地区", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 517, "start": 1176.2, "end": 1178.0, "text": "共同底线很难谈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 518, "start": 1178.4, "end": 1181.533, "text": "却比事故发生后互相指责更有价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 519, "start": 1181.666, "end": 1183.933, "text": "采访最后回到人类控制", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 520, "start": 1184.166, "end": 1186.7, "text": "纳德拉认为不服务于人类或者", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 521, "start": 1186.7, "end": 1189.566, "text": "脱离人类控制的系统没有发布价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 522, "start": 1189.9, "end": 1191.933, "text": "前沿模型进入世界之前", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 523, "start": 1192.333, "end": 1194.6, "text": "企业需要投入更多测试时间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 524, "start": 1194.733, "end": 1197.8, "text": "能力增长不能自动成为上线理由", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 525, "start": 1198.0, "end": 1199.533, "text": "产品团队还得证明", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 526, "start": 1199.533, "end": 1202.266, "text": "系统能够被监督被停止", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 527, "start": 1202.366, "end": 1204.6, "text": "也能在错误发生后恢复", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 528, "start": 1204.733, "end": 1206.933, "text": "这句话听起来像原则声明", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 529, "start": 1207.1, "end": 1209.866, "text": "真正考验会出现在商业压力上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 530, "start": 1210.133, "end": 1212.366, "text": "竞争对手率先发布新能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 531, "start": 1212.533, "end": 1214.4, "text": "微软愿不愿意继续测试", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 532, "start": 1214.8, "end": 1217.266, "text": "客户要求代理拥有更多权限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 533, "start": 1217.5, "end": 1219.366, "text": "公司会不会放宽限制", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 534, "start": 1219.566, "end": 1221.866, "text": "季度增长需要新收入时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 535, "start": 1222.0, "end": 1224.7, "text": "安全检查能不能抵抗产品进度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 536, "start": 1225.4, "end": 1227.733, "text": "控制原则只有在这些时刻", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 537, "start": 1227.733, "end": 1230.3, "text": "仍然有效才算真实边界", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 538, "start": 1230.466, "end": 1232.4, "text": "新版copilot把这些矛盾", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 539, "start": 1232.4, "end": 1233.9, "text": "集中到一个产品里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 540, "start": 1234.066, "end": 1235.9, "text": "它想让代理持续工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 541, "start": 1235.933, "end": 1237.8, "text": "又必须保留人类批准", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 542, "start": 1238.133, "end": 1239.9, "text": "他允许多个模型竞争", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 543, "start": 1239.9, "end": 1241.466, "text": "又掌握路由权", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 544, "start": 1241.533, "end": 1242.933, "text": "他承诺提高效率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 545, "start": 1242.966, "end": 1246.1, "text": "同时把TOKEN成本直接带进企业预算", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 546, "start": 1246.366, "end": 1248.266, "text": "他依赖更多数据中心", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 547, "start": 1248.366, "end": 1250.0, "text": "也要取得社区同意", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 548, "start": 1250.466, "end": 1252.766, "text": "所以这次发布的重要性来自", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 549, "start": 1252.766, "end": 1255.733, "text": "微软正在搭建的AI企业操作层", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 550, "start": 1255.933, "end": 1257.1, "text": "模型可以替换", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 551, "start": 1257.266, "end": 1258.666, "text": "任务留在copilot", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 552, "start": 1258.866, "end": 1260.0, "text": "应用可以变化", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 553, "start": 1260.2, "end": 1262.0, "text": "身份和权限留在agent", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 554, "start": 1262.3, "end": 1264.6, "text": "365 价格可以调整", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 555, "start": 1264.933, "end": 1266.9, "text": "成本治理仍由微软掌握", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 556, "start": 1266.966, "end": 1268.4, "text": "每一层都在减少客户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 557, "start": 1268.4, "end": 1270.066, "text": "离开微软体系的理由", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 558, "start": 1270.3, "end": 1272.6, "text": "Openai和Anthropic接下来会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 559, "start": 1272.6, "end": 1274.1, "text": "被迫回答一个问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 560, "start": 1274.333, "end": 1276.466, "text": "他们要继续做最强模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 561, "start": 1276.666, "end": 1279.466, "text": "还是建立完整的企业工作平台", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 562, "start": 1279.6, "end": 1281.133, "text": "前一条路需要不断", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 563, "start": 1281.133, "end": 1282.733, "text": "投入更昂贵的训练", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 564, "start": 1283.4, "end": 1285.7, "text": "并接受模型被其他平台路由", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 565, "start": 1285.8, "end": 1287.4, "text": "后一条路会直接进入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 566, "start": 1287.4, "end": 1289.133, "text": "微软最熟悉的战场", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 567, "start": 1289.4, "end": 1290.866, "text": "面对几十年积累的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 568, "start": 1290.866, "end": 1293.933, "text": "客户关系权限系统和办公数据", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 569, "start": 1294.133, "end": 1296.066, "text": "Google也会成为关键变量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 570, "start": 1296.166, "end": 1299.133, "text": "它拥有Workspace cloud和Android", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 571, "start": 1299.666, "end": 1301.6, "text": "具备复制这套结构的基础", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 572, "start": 1301.733, "end": 1303.466, "text": "若Google把Gemini", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 573, "start": 1303.666, "end": 1307.1, "text": "办公数据和设备入口真正连起来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 574, "start": 1307.3, "end": 1310.1, "text": "微软就不能只靠现有分发取胜", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 575, "start": 1310.466, "end": 1313.566, "text": "企业会比较哪一套代理更懂工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 576, "start": 1313.666, "end": 1316.533, "text": "也会比较哪一套系统更容易治理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 577, "start": 1316.8, "end": 1318.5, "text": "模型战争不会结束", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 578, "start": 1318.6, "end": 1319.966, "text": "位置却会改变", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 579, "start": 1320.1, "end": 1322.666, "text": "最强模型仍然推动能力上限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 580, "start": 1322.966, "end": 1324.866, "text": "可多数企业任务不需要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 581, "start": 1324.866, "end": 1326.766, "text": "每次都调用世界第一", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 582, "start": 1326.9, "end": 1330.1, "text": "可靠便宜可审计的模型组合往往", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 583, "start": 1330.1, "end": 1332.6, "text": "比一款昂贵冠军更有商业价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 584, "start": 1333.2, "end": 1334.7, "text": "微软要做的就是把", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 585, "start": 1334.7, "end": 1336.766, "text": "这种组合变成默认产品", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 586, "start": 1336.933, "end": 1339.2, "text": "开头的问题现在可以回答了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 587, "start": 1339.533, "end": 1341.566, "text": "如果模型随时可以更换", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 588, "start": 1341.866, "end": 1343.766, "text": "AI产业最值钱的部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 589, "start": 1344.133, "end": 1347.3, "text": "会逐渐向任务入口数据权限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 590, "start": 1347.5, "end": 1349.966, "text": "路由系统和执行记录移动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 591, "start": 1350.166, "end": 1351.666, "text": "模型仍然重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 592, "start": 1351.666, "end": 1353.333, "text": "却不再独占价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 593, "start": 1353.466, "end": 1355.0, "text": "谁掌握用户目标", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 594, "start": 1355.2, "end": 1356.733, "text": "谁决定调用顺序", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 595, "start": 1356.966, "end": 1358.866, "text": "谁能证明每一步安全", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 596, "start": 1359.0, "end": 1361.733, "text": "谁就能从每一次推理中持续收费", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 597, "start": 1361.933, "end": 1363.933, "text": "纳德拉押注的正是这个位置", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 598, "start": 1364.266, "end": 1365.6, "text": "微软不必在每一次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 599, "start": 1365.6, "end": 1367.666, "text": "模型发布中都拿第一", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 600, "start": 1367.8, "end": 1369.666, "text": "只要copilot成为企业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 601, "start": 1369.666, "end": 1370.933, "text": "交代任务的第一站", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 602, "start": 1371.333, "end": 1373.933, "text": "最强模型就会主动进入它的系统", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 603, "start": 1373.933, "end": 1375.066, "text": "争夺调用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 604, "start": 1375.2, "end": 1377.0, "text": "竞争规则由此改变", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 605, "start": 1377.133, "end": 1378.9, "text": "过去大家争的是谁能", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 606, "start": 1378.9, "end": 1380.6, "text": "造出最聪明的大脑", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 607, "start": 1380.8, "end": 1383.4, "text": "下一轮争的是谁能让所有", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 608, "start": 1383.4, "end": 1385.533, "text": "大脑在自己的产品里工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 609, "start": 1385.8, "end": 1388.0, "text": "这场产品战争才刚刚开始", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 610, "start": 1388.3, "end": 1390.966, "text": "autopilot能否稳定完成长任务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 611, "start": 1391.2, "end": 1393.2, "text": "auto能否公平选择模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 612, "start": 1393.533, "end": 1395.733, "text": "agent 365能否挡住权限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 613, "start": 1395.733, "end": 1397.3, "text": "和提示注入风险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 614, "start": 1397.4, "end": 1399.366, "text": "都需要真实部署验证", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 615, "start": 1399.666, "end": 1401.933, "text": "微软已经把路线画得很清楚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 616, "start": 1402.133, "end": 1404.666, "text": "接下来要证明的是这套庞大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 617, "start": 1404.666, "end": 1406.766, "text": "系统能够创造的业务价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 618, "start": 1406.966, "end": 1409.666, "text": "确实高于它消耗的算力和信任", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" } ], "transcript_selection": { "schema": "videonote.transcript_selection.v1", "status": "SELECTED", "requested_language": "zh", "duration": 1410.0, "reference_path": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260927_231656__微软瘋了_微軟竟背叛_OpenAI_這招_AI_陽謀_將徹底終結大模型時代/reference_subtitle.vtt", "reference_kind": "manual", "reference_language": "zh", "selected_source": "video_source_subtitle", "source_caption_kind": "manual", "source_caption_processing": "verbatim_direct", "youtube_overlap_clamps": [], "general_high_confidence_repairs": [], "decision_reason": "complete_source_subtitle_fast_path_no_whisper", "whisper_rejected": false, "source_profile": { "segment_count": 619, "duration_coverage": 0.918266 } } }