{ "text": "最近幾十年,他都在低利率零利率的狀況之下,大家都借日元然後去投資美股,然後投資美債,美股欣欣向榮。\n可是現在反向操作的時候,就變成什麼樣子?就變成日元的利率上升,大家就回頭要去買日元了。\n為什麼美國去救日元反而是拋歐元?因為他不能拋美元。\n他一抛美元美国不值钱\n然后美债的殖利率更高\n更没人要\n他们现在最担心的日元\n最后变成压垮骆驼的\n最后一根稻草的时候\n变成美元回贬\n没人救得起美国的一个债务\n我们看到日本\n接下来如果升级的话\n不管是对政府\n对于企业\n甚至对一般老百姓\n都会造成相当程度的压力\n但是由于现在的通膨问题\n还有要救日元\n日本政府看起来是不得不升息了\n那如果升息的话\n接下来的影响就是说\n我们知道美日之间的套利空间缩小了\n这些国际的资金可能一口气\n就会从美股美债等等测出来\n接下来如果美债的部分\n再次的资金测出来\n会不会导致它的殖利率\n再继续的往上飙升呢\n那接下来对于美国霸权的影响\n是不是压力又更大了\n吕政长怎么看\n我们看到今年6月的时候\n川普总统进入G7峰会的会场\n他说什么\nI am the boss\n我才是你们的老板\n最近这句话又出现了\n可是是类似的\n是谁讲的\n是倍生特讲\n也就是美国的财政部长\n他直接告诉日本的财务大臣说\n我才是庄家\n意思是什么\n有关于利率汇率以及美债的问题\n我做主\n这个就是一个霸权的思维\n但是这个霸权的思维\n还能撑得下去\n还能撑得下去吗\n我们来看一下\n这张图我们上面看到的是\n美债的十年\n十年期的一个殖利率\n下面的是三十年期的\n可是我们看到这是什么\n它不断的\n这是十年\n就是不断的往上攀升\n往上攀升的意思是什么\n也就是美债不值钱\n美债为什么不值钱\n因为大家都在卖\n这个是我们看到30年期的\n30年期的更夸张\n它已经到达了5.37的一个殖利率\n其实这个殖利率非常接近2007年的\n金融海啸的时候的这个水准\n意思是什么\n大家都不想要持有\n这个相对的也就是我们前一段时间看的\n大家持有黄金\n也就是这是一种对向操作\n我卖了绝对不会\n就是以现金\n在现金的部位上\n而是直接的去投资另外一个商品\n那个就是黄金\n我们看到这个状况\n其实也就告诉我们\n大家都不看好美债\n大家都不看好美债\n偏偏你日本现在要升息\n你当然是迫于无奈\n但是从贝森特的角度来讲\n我是庄家\n那我是庄家\n我为什么要当这个庄家\n因为你日元的利率\n只要上升的话\n那对不起\n刚刚主持人讲到的\n这个套利的空间就不见了\n为什么\n因为刚刚杨老师特别讲到\n日本最近几年\n其实可能不是最近几年\n最近几十年\n他都在低利率零利率的状况之下\n大家都借日元\n然后去投资美股\n然后投资美债\n那在这种状况之下\n那当然我们看到美股欣欣向荣\n美债它的殖利率低\n可是现在反向操作的时候\n就变成什么样子\n就变成你日元的利率上升\n大家就回头要去买日元了\n那在这种状况之下就糟了\n也就是我们前一段时间看到\n为什么美国去救日元\n反而是抛欧元\n因为他不能抛美元\n他一抛美元美国不值钱\n然后美债的殖利率更高\n更没人要\n所以我们现在看到的\n其实是美国的一个\n整体的债务泥落\n这个债务泥落\n其实美国一直想要回购美债\n拉抬这个美债的价格\n来挽救\n可能如果AI出现了一个转折\n实际上他们财政是拉不赢的\n但是问题是\n他们现在最担心的\n日元最后变成压垮骆驼的\n最后一根稻草的时候\n变成美元回贬\n没人救得起美国的一个债务\n今天有关于这一场金融炸弹\n要来看到的是\n日本才在一个月内\n而且是单日我们看到\n日本为了救贿砸下了\n大约是高达了900亿日元要来救日元\n那当时我们看到在它的拯救之下\n我们看到如今美元对上日元是已经来到了153\n确实它有在升值\n一边是在升值\n但是日本的内部现在出现了一个很奇怪的景象\n就是散户为什么还是在持续的放空呢\n难道是对于日本政府没有信心吗\n而且放空的金额是非常非常高的\n散户在近期的净空日元部位\n高达了3.61兆的日元这么高的一个部位\n换句话说市场还有一大群人正在压住\n日元还会继续的跌下去\n这波日元反攻也同时是日本政府要救日元\n也被形容对于美国来说像是金融版的珍珠港2.0\n有点像是一个突袭事件\n等一下我们也会持续的解读\n那另外一方面其实要持续关心的\n就是因为日本的央行了\n9月份如果一旦真的升息的话\n现在看起来不断放空的这些散户\n会不会面临危机呢\n我们刚刚说了金额非常的高\n高达3.61兆\n会不会成为下一颗金融炸弹\n因为到时候他们如果再继续空下去的话\n就要开始做回补了\n那引爆的就会是日元空投的一场大屠杀\n这个是来自于专家所做的一个市井\n好一边是日元可能会面临大屠杀\n另外一边日本的债市要来看到\n十年其国债殖利率已经冲破了3%\n也是数十年最高的一个数字\n现在日本的债务成本已经越来越高了\n超过目前所编列的31兆日元大关\n好 今天节目一开始\n我们要先请教杨老师了\n首先是日元暴冲153字头\n但是散户还在持续的放空\n会不会引爆\n接下来一旦日本升息了\n出现日本的日元空投大屠杀呢\n散户为什么要持续的放空\n是表示对于政府没有信心吗\n再来就是有关于日本的\n这个日在殖利率\n不断的狂飙到现在3%了\n接下来对于企业跟政府来说\n是不是等于在融资成本上\n把他们推向另外一个\n财政上的悬崖呢\n那杨老师怎么看\n现在大家都变成国际金融专家\n如果没有成为专家\n至少这个是重要议题\n大家都会很想知道\n我先不讲就是\n这个散户\n它会不会成为一把柴火\n造成整个日元\n跟日本的财政的问题\n以及散户如果说持续放空\n然后升息之后\n会不会有严重的冲击\n我们先讲\n接下来\n我們先講,接下來這一個月好了,因為講長了,其實不準。到底日園會升還是扁?\n我個人認為,升的機會比扁的機會要低得多。\n因为现在是153.63\n那大概现在从153到155\n我觉得这段期间\n在就是9月18号之前\n这很可能会出现\n也就是继续会贬下去\n那到155甚至到156\n为什么\n因为大家预期现在\n日本银行的鹰派讲话声音非常重\n也就是它会升息\n你一旦升息的时候\n其实日元走贬\n这是比较有可能的\n那接下来的问题是\n那到了9月18号的时候的\n左右同一个时间吧\n美国会不会升息\n现在看起来\n美国升息跟降息都存在\n但升息的空间其实比较高\n为什么\n国际油价现在来到101块布兰特原油\n所以对于通膨的压力越来越大\n除非在未来这几天\n它能够快速的下降到85块\n但我觉得可能性不高\n所以美国的通膨的因素\n会使得美国的升息的机会\n越来越高了\n虽然有人说放话\n要看八月的一些经济的指数\n但是这种温哥派的声音\n现在又消失了\n所以美国升息\n日本升息\n这什么意思\n那就是说\n日元的贬值一个当初最大的原因\n就是美元跟日元\n在汇率上的那个差别\n那种利差带来的\n就是说Carrie Trade\n利差贸易的这个效益\n我去借个一千万的日元\n我换成美元\n先不管汇率怎么样\n因为利率差别很大\n所以汇率如果维持在一个\n可接受不动的范围\n我然后去投资\n比较高报酬的一些标的\n比如说辉达的股票\n那我就赚这个东西\n这个就是现在我们讲的散户\n散户有一个称呼\n叫做渡边太太\n渡边太太是一个\n经济学上的说法\n这是经济学人发明的\n也就是说\n现在拥有3.61兆日元的\n日本的散户\n因为最早最早在做这些操作的\n其实是一些家庭主妇\n其实我很怀疑\n日本家庭主妇哪有那么厉害\n不管怎么样\n这个是经济学人发明的\n渡边太太\n也就是日本的散户\n现在基本上其实看到\n美国跟日本的利率的差别\n所以如果他两个都升息\n那什么差别\n那日元就继续扁\n但是日元扁会有一个禁区\n扁了如果扁到160以上的话\n那双方的政府就跟上次一样\n都会进来这个操盘\n因为你到了一定的压力的时候\n日本就被迫可能要卖更多的美债\n在过去的三个礼拜\n日本就卖了将近900亿的美债\n这个使得贝森特非常不高兴\n所以在这样的一个空间范围之内\n它的利差会持续\n除非今天日元\n如果日元不升息\n我给你那贬得更严重\n因为大家就更不看好\n日元未来的这种情况\n因此这样子的情况\n如果这个利差继续存在\n日元持续贬\n或者在这个范围的\n就是说不会升的这种情况\n会持续一段时间\n但是它不会贬到160以下\n那可是应该讲160以上\n可是现在最大的问题\n其实就是日本债市\n现在已经它的国债的殖利率\n冲破3%\n将来可能日元的海外的资产\n必须要处理而回到日本来\n来维持个平衡\n所以将来我们会看\n它会在这个范围之内\n持续的摆动\n好 这个是第一颗金融炸弹\n我们说一边是日元现在升值\n那这个日元出现了\n未来会不会出现这种很严重的空单\n因为散户还是在狂空日元\n那会不会引爆另外一颗金融杀单\n这是第一个问题\n那第二个问题\n等一下也会请丽将军带我们看\n就是刚刚杨老师也特别提到\n9月份嘛\n也许接下来美国跟日本都会升息\n如果升息的话代表说\n这个美日利差\n已经没有什么获利空间可讲了\n那现在这个全球的日元套利交易规模\n是360亿日元\n一旦资金从美方这边撤出的话\n对于美债恐怕是更不利的\n那会造成什么样的影响\n等一下我们持续请丽将军看\n那这边呢\n美国确实贝森特真的要担心\n因为美国呢\n美债先是说破了40兆之外\n这些长天期短天期的\n这个美债殖利率也都不断的在创高\n首先呢我们看到贝森特\n他已经回购了60亿日元\n针对10年期跟20年期的美债\n就是要来救美债\n那这次的规模呢\n20年期的部分更是前一次\n20亿美元的三倍\n但是重点来了\n市场现在看起来是完全不买单的\n我们来看到10年期的美债殖利率\n已经冲到了4.8%\n创下30年的新高\n30年期更扯了\n已经突破了5.3%\n这两个数字要注意了\n其实都已经几乎是来到警戒线了\n所以现在最新是两位经济学家\n都已经开始做出了市井\n第一位他是布鲁金斯学会的资深研究员\n他说长期的这种殖利率\n已经进入到各方要全面应战的局面了\n那再来就是第二位专家\n他是洛克菲勒国际董事\n他也分析美债突破了40兆美元\n如果十年期的殖利率突破了5%\n刚刚我们说已经来到4.8%了\n那么将类似过去的网路泡沫的悲剧\n这一次会破裂的就是现在最夯的AI泡沫了\n接下来对于美债\n还有长天期的殖利率\n真的压得住吗\n蓝老师怎么看\n我觉得目前对美国来说\n是很困难的\n因为我们也看到多在市井\n殖利率为什么会高\n尤其长天期的殖利率\n例如说10年的殖利率\n30年的殖利率\n殖利率高意思也就是\n我对你的公债不信任\n因为我不信任\n你要我买你的公债\n那你要给我更好的一个保障\n那这个保障\n其实就是指利率就这样翻身上来\n所以各位想想\n我们在台湾经济很热很热的时候\n那时候资金到处缺乏\n资金到处缺乏\n也就是说各个企业家银行都需要抢钱\n都需要抢钱\n再用更高利率的贷款\n贷给中小企业\n在那段时间内\n银行的利率都高\n高达7%\n高达7%的那个美好的时代\n在我们台湾的那段时间里面\n所有的只要手上有闲钱的\n你想想看你一百万\n你一年就赚7% 就7万块\n那这个利息是很高的\n本金 然后银行是\n低风险的一个地方\n可是你每一年就是7万块的收入\n那就是很高的\n那但是为什么银行愿意\n拿那么高的利率\n就是因为企业需要钱\n那企业愿意用更高的贷款的利息\n来支付这个银行\n所以银行要从我们市场上\n来拿这个利息\n可是现在的问题是\n现在殖利率一直升高\n这个钱是给谁\n是给美国政府花\n所以等于是美国政府\n要用更高的钱来去买这个\n卖掉他们的政府的公债\n来付这个利息\n可是问题是在于\n美国政府的债务是越来越大了\n他债务大到一个程度\n他的政府的税收支付不了的时候\n就是美国政府破产的时候\n美国政府一旦破产\n他就没有钱再去还这个利息\n再去还这个本金\n那这样的情形下\n你手上有美国政府公债的人\n他可能血本无归\n他可能会面临很大的问题\n而对美国政府来说\n买美国政府公债的\n最大的客户是国内的企业\n国内的银行金融机构\n是美国政府最大的\n可是另外一部分是外国政府\n可是外国政府他通常有规定\n也就是外国像我们台湾来讲\n就有这么一个规定\n如果美国的性质不是三个A的话\n我们就必须要抛售\n美国政府的公债\n我们一定要是三个A\n因为那是人民的钱\n人民的退休的基金\n还有邮政储金等等的这些\n都是政府的\n都是人民的钱\n所以我们必须要有\n最好的一个保障\n一定要三个A\n那美国政府\n如果你的政府的公债越来越大\n你的政府的收入\n财政收入不够\n你在支付上有问题的时候\n你的平等被评为\n两个A 或是一个A\n那很多国家就被破\n他必须要抛售美国政府的公债\n当他一旦抛售美国政府的公债\n那你对美国来说的话\n你就必须要拿出更多的钱\n给人家数回来\n那数回来的情形下\n您看到对美国的政府破产的速度\n就会加快\n现在的情况是\n所有的分析家\n甚至连巴菲特都在预警了\n说要破产了\n大家要小心\n你拿美元的人要小心\n你买美国政府公债人要小心\n连拿美元的人都要小心\n那也就是说\n你以后你美元也是不值钱的东西\n不值钱的货币那怎么办\n所以我们可以看到很多的国家\n都在开始做避险\n那在做避险里面\n有人国家是把黄金搬走了\n最强而有力的\n就是最显著的\n就是上个礼拜\n荷兰已经把他的黄金又搬走了\n搬走了这个70几公顿\n他就搬走了\n我们也看到大陆已经把黄金\n都一直在陆续撤离美国\n另外一个部分里面\n就是不断的在减持美国政府的公债\n那你想如果日本政府\n在今年的9月\n就刚刚有民凶所评估的\n如果美国政府的\n如果日本政府他最后他认为\n风险才太大了\n他如果真的升息\n他的房地产怎么办\n日本政府的财政的收入\n跟支出的平衡的问题该怎么办\n那如果他真的到最后\n他做了一个决定就是\n不生息是用卖美国政府的公债\n那这个情形像\n对美国政府来讲\n那就是一个更大的一个隐忧\n所以他现在要用政治的压力\n来压日本政府只能自产\n不能自救\n可是问题就在\n当我活不下去的时候\n我就不得不自救了\n那这个时候对美国来说\n都是一个危险\n好 一旦美国政府\n如果真的出现财政破产的情形下\n坦白说\n这个就是AI泡沫时代的来历\n所以我觉得投资在AI的\n美国的投资家来说的话\n他们的风险也随着美国政府\n很有可能破产\n而一直在升高\n其实这个部分里面\n就会让大家感受到说\n如果美国的贝森特\n还是继续这么无能的话\n那他会给美国\n给全世界带来一场大灾难\n好 所以确实\n现在美债所受到的承押也表现出了\n也显示了现在国际资金对于美债的不信任度\n刚刚特别提到\n第一个包括说大家现在开始多国开始卖美债\n然后改买黄金来做避险\n第二个是美国希望透过押注日本来救救它的美债\n但是日本会不会想要自救呢\n答案是非常有可能的\n所以我们接下来也会看到说\n9月份如果说日本央行一旦升息的话\n每日利差的交易\n这个获利就会被终结\n那大家就会从这个\n不管是美国买美国商品的\n这些资产里面测出\n不管是美元啊美债\n或者是高资产的这一些资本的收益\n都会从这当中来抽出\n而且这一笔金额非常的高\n高达了360兆日元\n如果抽出了\n接下来对于美债还有美元的冲击\n又会再扩大有多严重\n立将军又怎么看\n我想说这件事情\n太多的经济专业的术语\n很多我们一般的民众可能听不懂\n我假设我是渡边太太\n就是日本的散户角度\n来看这次日元的框标\n原来我要花160日元\n才可以去买1块钱美金\n我现在153块我就可以买到\n你认为说是日元现在对美元\n对这些渡边太太来讲的话\n是不是甜甜价\n我是甜甜价\n我当然就赶快去买\n因为但是后果是什么\n如果说后续\n如果日元又回贬到160\n那我是不是就赚到了\n我赚到汇率\n我本来我现在153块\n每日元买的\n我到时候160块\n我的美金\n这个卖一块钱美金\n我就可以获利7块的日元\n我就赚到了\n这叫汇\n另外利息来讲还没算进去\n现在来讲我换了美金以后\n我存在美国的利率里面\n有3%甚至于4%\n我跟日本银行界\n我现在只有一%\n我还有3%的利率\n所以对杜边太太\n对这些散户来讲的话\n他等于赚两样东西\n一个是利息 一个是汇率\n双赚\n所以说何乐而不为\n除了杜边太太之外\n有一些外国企业\n国际企业来讲\n他就不是只是赚这个利差而已\n他会去做更杠杆的操作\n譬如说是我去借了日元\n去换了美金\n去买美国的股票\nNVIDIA股票\n去买台积电的股票\n但是有一天\n如果说万一这次日元升值\n日元如果说是后续来讲\n真的升值超过150块\n这些三国会想说\n那这样不行\n我已经亏了利息\n就算我赚到利息\n我亏了汇率\n那这些国际企业来讲说\n我虽然说这个股票\n我赚到2%的利息\n可是汇率我亏了\n这时候他们会做什么\n他宁可赔钱他还把股票卖掉\n就算是NVIDIA股价再好\n后市再看好\n他把它卖掉\n卖掉以后赶快去还日本的\n跟他当初日本人所借的钱\n因为你毕竟是借的钱\n你一定要还利息\n所以我觉得这种一来一往之间\n对日元来讲这叫放空\n放空对美国影响有多大\n我们从贝胜特讲的话\n除了刚刚赖老师所分析的\n日本如果说是继续升息\n会影响到他\n如果说日元继续在贬值\n如果在这种状况下去的话\n对美债他就只有卖美债\n来救日元\n对美国来讲影响有多大\n我们就看到贝森特\n大大大的主动讲什么话\n贝森特他前面讲说\n他说我自己掌握了\n这个不对称的资讯\n你们敢跟我对赌吗\n而且我现在是庄家\n你们这些想要杜边太太\n或者企业\n想要跟我对赌的就放马过来\n但是我觉得贝森特越是讲这种话\n越是看出来美国\n在金融方面的焦虑跟不安\n日本现在为了要救日元\n是开始抛售了美债\n所以贝森特急坏了又非常的生气\n他说我才是庄家\n好另外升值的部分\n现在反而成了救命符\n360兆逃命股市也崩盘了\n而且现在日本要面对的是\n里头有25万家的僵尸企业\n恐怕很快会断气\n会不会重演失落的30年的日本呢\n今天就这些议题我们会做深度剖析\n好现在看到的是日本的金融炸弹\n随时要再度的引爆\n原因就是日本为了要救\n原因就是日本為了要救日園,開始在大規模上個月豪雜了15兆日圓,大舉的賣美元買日圓,創下日本史上最大規模的是單月份的外匯干預。\n所以我们来看到他单月直接卖了796亿美元\n现在总额是来到了大概是1.2兆美元附近\n而且我们看到包括的外币资产\n也这个水位快速的下降至9900多亿\n单月更是报减了800多亿的美元\n那有没有效呢\n确实我们来看到日元的部分有被救起来\n7月底的时候毕竟164\n现在一度是回升到153附近来做徘徊了\n确实我们现在看到日本救日元\n稍微救起来了\n但救起来的话靠的是卖美债\n这时候美国可紧张了\n因为日本持有大量的美债\n高达了1.1兆美元左右\n如果再继续的卖美债的话\n那代表美债的价格会下降\n到时候值率狂飙\n那影响的就是包括了美国的企业\n跟美国政府他们的借贷成本\n会跟着飙升了\n这时候最紧张最紧张的\n就是美国财长贝森特了\n贝森特就跟日本讲好了\n那我们自己想想办法\n拜托你不要再卖美债到公开市场去了\n所以他们最新想好的一个转还的方法\n就是把目光转向联准会最新的\n这个FEMA的回购机制\n所以基本上这个回购机制\n就是要求日本说\n那不然这样好了\n你把你手上的美债抵押给我\n那么我在联准会我借给你美元\n你就可以去买日元\n来有助于日本汇率继续升值\n但是现在有一个关键点\n每一天在市场上的交易金额\n最多就是600亿美元\n这个要影响到日本的汇市\n干预程度或许只是杯水车薪\n所以市场就开始质疑了\n说美国你根本就没有办法\n真的有能力去救日元\n贝森特听了这些话更气了\n他就是这样讲的\n他说不管怎么样\n我现在就是庄家\n好这句话就是直接落狠话出来了\n今天节目一开始\n先请教汉婷怎么看\n贝森特这时候\n连FEMA的回购机制都出来了\n还嗆瞎\n我就是庄家\n真的是有把握吗\n还是在吹哨壮胆呢\n那日元会不会\n如果再度的失守的话\n接下来还是得做一样的方法吗\n靠卖美债吗\n汉婷怎么看\n现在因为日元贬太多\n那日本财务省就要买日元\n卖美元把汇率拉回来\n但是日本要卖美元\n首先要有美元\n可是日本的财务\n大部分是美国国债\n如果直接拿到市场上去拍卖\n美国国债的价格跌个稀巴烂\n美国会不高兴\n所以为了解决这个尴尬\nFEMA机制就派上用场了\nFEMA就像美国联准会开的一家VIP当铺\n日本不用把美债卖掉\n只是拿去当铺抵押借出现金\n那因为美债没有真的流到市面上\n所以不会砸坏美债的行情\n那这笔钱的限期又很短\n日本只要付点利息\n之后还可以把美债赎回来\n所以他又能够拿到美元\n去卖了美元\n然后去买日元\n让日元升值\n也不会把美债的价格砸烂\n可是呢\n市场上在看空美元的人\n仍然很多\n所以贝森特要亲自出来讲话\n说我是庄家\n要对赌请便\n为什么他要讲这个话\n第一个\n他要直接对全球对冲基金\n心理战威慑\n华尔街的空投\n最喜欢盯着弱者咬\n先前日元一路狂扁\n投机客每天去借超低利息的日元\n转去买高利息的美元\n去做套利\n所以贝森特跳出来呛\n我是庄家\n就告诉所有的空投\n日本不是一个人在战斗\n我美国爸爸背后在操盘\n游戏规则是我定的\n你们如果继续做空日元\n我就让你们断头\n而第二\n这也是在帮日本争取时间\n8月日本为了要救汇率\n单月就砸了986亿元\n创下历史记录\n市场都心知肚明\n你又砸了很多钱\n甚至外国证券都砸进去\n一大部分就是美国的国债\n如果日本每个月都被迫\n倒卖几千亿的美债自救\n美债市场就崩盘了\n美债美国自己的各种利率\n就会飙上天\n所以贝森特也必须亲自出来说明\n大家担心的美债狂蝶这件事情\n不会发生\n再来第三\n他也要对外展现自己的掌控力\n替执政团队立威\n作为美方核心的理财金融操盘手\n他要对市场展示\n我们美国的财政部\n美国的联准会\n跟日本央行都搞得非常清楚\n没有什么不对称的资讯\n我们什么时候要进场干预\n什么时候要砸多少钱\n日本央行哪一天要做什么事\n我们都有剧本了\n所以你们外面不要乱搞\n那他到底有什么武器\n其实就是美日联手进场\n过去在处理日元的事情\n都是日本单打独斗\n那华尔街的这些金融巨厄\n或者是世界上的空头\n根本都不怕\n那等到美国亲自下场\n那当然就不一样\n因为美国背后力量比较大\n而且是有FEMA的抵押机制\n再加上美国自己\n长期的回购 长债\n自然就能够阻止日本抛售美债\n那美国自己\n他也能够去做一些宏观的调控\n但是这些套路真的很稳吗\n不一定 为啥\n因为FEMA它只是短期给美元\n它也不会让日元自动的升值\n如果未来美国又有了通膨\n联准会不会降息\n美元仍然很强\n那么日元最后还是会被压\n好 所以我们现在看到\n是日本的动作已经开始出手\n要去救日元了\n但是确实现在日本一边是救日元\n一边他还要面对的就是\n日本自己国内非常严重的通膨问题\n所以现在针对于日本9月份升息的可能性\n已经高达至少7成8成以上\n都认为日本在9月份一定会升息\n那接下来我们要来看几个剧本\n就是日本一旦升息\n接下来对于日本经济有哪几个重大的影响\n现在列出来一共是三大点\n第一个会影响到的就是\n日元套利的空间会立刻消失\n那恐怕的是资金撤离全球股市震荡\n第二个就是对于日本企业获利的影响\n跟第三个日本债券的影响\n我们先来看到具体第一个\n也就是说因为日本跟美国\n现在存在很大的日元套利的一个机会\n所以现在的这个规模\n就是跨境玩这个利差交易的规模\n已经达到了360兆日元\n九和新台币2.35兆美元\n要知道如果这个套利的机会\n这样子的一个交易方式\n如果未来没有了\n就是随着日本升息\n没有的话\n接下来国际资金就可能会撤出日本\n到时候就会引发国际的股市的动荡\n也就是回复到当年2024年\n曾经发生过的一次全球股市动荡\n就是类似的事情所造成的\n第二个受害的就是日本的企业的出口获利\n随着日元升值\n丰田就估算了\n如果汇率一旦来到153附近的话\n这个汇差就可能导致数千亿日元获利\n立刻就消失\n第三个事情就是日本的债势了\n10年期的公債殖利率\n9月初一度升破3%\n已经创下了30年的新高了\n接下来还要再升职吗\n这些都是非常大的问题\n干哥怎么看\n开什么玩笑\n你怎么可以让我们日元升职到那个地步\n对不对\n日本有多少人在玩日元套利亚\n几百万人在玩\n而且你绝对不相信\n很多散户在玩\n为什么\n很简单\n就是日元它一向都是很低的\n对不对\n它就在很低的时候\n那这些日本的散户\n他们就在你逢低的时候\n他就买进\n那他就一直都很低\n为什么\n他就去买\n日本央行根本不敢好吗\n他们一向对于\n就是说日本的一般的老百姓\n或是银行的话\n都不敢升这样的利息\n所以说你现在突然升两码\n那我看日本就不要玩了\n360兆日元的市场\n也许我们对日元比较没有概念\n那直接换算2.35兆美元\n那有多少家庭会陷入其中\n还有股市怎么办\n你有沒有想過這個問題\n所以然後還更好笑\n豐田 豐田\n豐田是不用講\n全球第一品牌\n豐田說\n我們已經估計到\n每升值一日元\n那我們從海外賺的錢\n匯回來了\n直接損失500億日元\n差這麼多\n那我們整年季度的財報\n都不用寫了\n對不對\n還得了嗎\n所以你升息\n你光升息一日元就这样了\n所以如果九月升息一马\n他说日本央行应该升息两马\n他说光升息一马\n日本就会经济动荡了\n为什么\n因为长期以来\n就是日本经济的泡沫\n它是其来有致的\n他们讲了一个笑话\n1989年37年前\n他说日本的\n就是即将达到泡沫最高点的时候\n外面市场就在讲\n在东京的那个黄居\n皇帝住的那个皇居\n那个房地产会超过\n加州整个房地产加起来的总格\n因为泡沫到这种地步\n结果泡沫终于吹破了\n对不对\n就那个时候的谣言\n会让大家恐慌到\n你心里害怕的事情\n全部都成真的\n所以还没有讲到\n最后讲到什么\n在市\n十年级公债利率\n那殖利率一度升\n标破3%\n那日本的银行\n保险公司\n他们都持有大量的日本国债\n对不对\n那损失的风险就更高\n我觉得高市长没有不敢这样做\n你真的要升息的话\n你暂时是稳住了\n可是我可以跟你讲\n日元只要再升破150\n他现在说153\n已经到顶了\n不要再升了\n再升下去的话完蛋了\n他说没有\n现在投资人他准备升破140\n下大柱\n然后日本的散户\n反过头来做\n我跟你讲\n这个双方之间的冲撞\n有戏可看\n可是我可以告诉你\n对日本的经济\n会有更大更强烈的影响\n到时候一定是失业的人更多\n经济指数更难看\n好 那另外一方面\n因为刚刚也帮我们提到了\n当时在1989年\n这个时候有一个大泡沫\n其实大泡沫当时的背景\n就是因为日本他当时升息了\n那升息之后就接连爆出了\n各种银行的坏账\n那也就引发了\n后续我们看到这过去几十年来\n日本的失落现象\n那这一次现在来到了现在\n路透社最新报道是日本的僵尸企业\n大概达到了25万家\n他们都是靠低率的\n如果一旦升息了\n接下来政府又不救他们的话\n是否引爆一系列的危机\n也就是过去30年的失落日本\n是否再次在今天重新上演\n那运老师又怎么看\n日元跟美元之间的套利现象\n我稍微解释一下什么叫套利\n就是从日元到日本银行是零利息\n甚至还有一段时间是负利息\n然后美国的利息节节升高\n现在到达5%\n至少也有4.5%\n所以说贝尊德这边吹牛\n我是market maker\n他做梦\n我跟你讲\n你这个日本和美国的经济\n都是自由经济\n这个如果说是你\n我说句良心话\n你在大陆的这种经济政策的话\n有market maker我相信\n那大陆的人民银行\n他绝对是market maker\n因为他本身来讲\n就是没有这个外汇这样进来\n你现在炒会\n我先跟大家解释一下\n就是说这个套利已经到什么现象\n就是有一个名词\n叫做这个\n叫做渡边夫人\n就是说日本的很多的赚的钱\n都管钱的人\n日本女人很多人不上班\n在家管钱\n这些管钱人话一听\n不得了\n这个你只要从银行中借书钱来\n送到美国银行\n你出门都不用打个电话就换\n我现在借这个一日元\n然后全部\n马上就买成美元\n然后你等着时间的话\n就光吃利息\n你要了解\n做生意的话\n固定白赚5%\n是很不简单的\n对不对\n你不赔就好了\n所以说产生这种套利的现象\n这现象搞了多久\n一直到最后\n大家才发觉\n原来日本跟美国之间的\n银行之间产生的感觉\n我刚刚还跟我们干哥\n在聊了一下\n在计算的过程当中\n就不懂这个道理的人\n就像我们自己个傻子\n对不对\n大部分人\n哪个人不懂这个道理呢\n对不对\n你拿到日元\n借日元出来也不用钱\n然后一换\n巴菲特都在搞这一套\n对不对\n所以你在这个长期下来的话\n那日本为什么出现这种问题\n你刚刚讲到\n为什么有25万家僵尸企业\n我告诉你一个非常简单的问题\n因为日本有这种问题\n日本不是没有财经人才\n而是日本这个国家\n长期对自己老百姓非常好\n日本对老百姓好的方式的话\n就是说你会看到\n日本人最害怕失业\n让这些企业不要失业\n不要失业情况下\n薪水要能够发得出来\n就是不失业\n不失业发得出来的话\n如果说老板本身的\n这个借这个钱的成本\n很低很低\n甚至是富的情况下来讲\n那对他来讲的话\n这个企业就可以维持生存\n对不对\n那现在这个套利的现象\n搞得这么严重\n我觉得他日本是\n接着三方面的问题\n首先第一个问题就是说\n是这个套利现象很严重\n然后第二个问题的话\n就是日本本身对老百姓\n好到简直没有立场\n所以说日本本身\n为什么自己发行的内战\n是他们的GDP的百分之二百六\n2.6倍\n那这根本没办法升息\n一升息的话要还的债非常多\n然后第三点的话\n美国真的是提了油来揪火\n因为美国本身来讲的话\n只有一个要求\n你绝对不可以给我卖美债\n就像刚刚和你讲\n你除了这一点以外\n其他随便你搞\n那日本讲说\n我根本就是货币在贬值\n到根本就情况\n你要知道\n现在整个机器当中生活垫底的\n日本现在的话\n他们自己的平均收入\n只有33843块美元\n这是里面最低的国家\n你要了解\n相对于这种情况来讲\n美国的话都高达8万多美元\n所以你在这种情况之下\n这个汇率当中\n使得日本的生活当中\n面对了非常大的压力\n现在是加息也不是\n那么这个减息也不可能\n所以说出现了这种结果\n那这个情况下来讲的话\n没有人知道日本的经济要怎么救\n日本自己都不知道\n今天有关于这一场\n美日之间要救日元的这一场大战\n我们持续来看到\n日本是不是又被逼到墙角了呢\n我们稍微回顾一下\n一个月前\n当时美国跟日本一起来集体要救日元\n上演了一场罕见的日元保卫战\n当时日本是砸下了15兆日元要来救会\n创下了一个月内的最新记录\n才一个月的时间\n但是我们要来看到的是\n不只是日本救\n当时美国也要救日元\n所以他就跟着跟进\n卖了日元来买日元\n结果发生了什么事\n才一个月的时间\n日元再度的跌破了160关卡了\n眼看这样子旧日元还是没有效的\n最新消息有没有来看到\n美国财长贝森特这一次不演了\n干脆就直接跟日本放话了\n说在G团体上面点名日本\n你赶快升息吧\n现在市场也压住说\n在贝森特讲了这些话之后\n日盈下一次的升息\n几率高达超过了七成的几率\n重点是日本央行的利益\n重點是,日本央行的利率政策竟然是輪到美國來指指點點,美國來指導。\n現在大家也在說,是連高斯早苗自己都不敢去指導,\n要求自己的央行總裁直填河南升息了。\n那美国凭什么呢?\n好,我们又来看到\n那美国担心的点是什么呢?\n就是因为日本是美国\n非常重要的美债持有国\n现在持有的规模\n大概是达到了1.1兆美元的规模\n要就日元的话\n可能他就会透过抛售美债\n买进日元来支撑他的汇率\n但是这也是美国同时最害怕的事情\n因为美国自己的国债问题\n这么的严重啊\n现在公债已经超过了\n40兆美元的大关\n十年期的公债殖利率\n更是冲过了\n4.78%\n已经逼近5%\n这么危险的一个数字了\n贝森特的逻辑非常的清楚\n他这一次不想要\n就是靠美元来\n卖美元\n买日元来救日元了\n而是要靠日本自己升息\n来缩小每日之间的这个利差\n而这样子的话出来之后\n大家也在回顾说\n会不会当时1985年的\n广场协议\n又再度的发酵了呢\n让日本再次经历下一次的失落20年吗\n先来请教谢大使怎么看\n当然了\n贝森特这句话反面的意思就是说\n你不准卖美债\n我告诉你\n你只能怎么样\n你只能生息\n你两个选择你只能生息\n这个其实在日本内部是有争论的\n高市长因为他这个执政\n就主政的经验不足\n然后他也是很意识形态\n意识形态建国的治国\n意识形态建国的都是有一个\n就是说都有一个特色\n就是经济要为政治服务\n不是政治为经济服务\n有意识形态的国家\n政府都是这样\n意识形态是最高价值\n用花钱去\n花钱去达到意识形态的目标\n高市早苗就是这一种\n所以高市早苗这一点\n就和日本的自民党的造王者\n麻生太郎有严重的冲突\n听说有一次\n就是说日元暴跌的问题\n麻生太郎去见高石澡苗\n谈了不到一个小时\n麻生出来面色非常难看\n出来就搞他的派系在开会议\n好像是想把高石澡苗弄下来\n其实他们最大的真正点\n就是在怎么样来救\n跌跌不休的日元\n麻生太郎他们这一派的看法是什么\n不能生息\n只能卖美债\n你就卖美债\n上一次卖了700多亿\n这一次又花了一两百亿\n因为有美国出手\n也没有在美国手上的美债\n不到10%\n不到10%\n不到一成\n那你手上这个工具\n你拿着美债干嘛\n你死抱着美债\n你救美国 美国感谢你\n你要救日本\n你现在这次先卖1000亿\n看看救不救得了\n事实上是可能\n1000亿不足\n1500亿下去\n日本现在的美债是一兆1000多亿\n你抓那么多美债干嘛\n你是在撑美元\n撑美元你自己要先撑得住\n所以这个麻生他们是这样看法\n可是你如果卖掉\n你现在卖掉500亿\n卖掉1000亿美债的话\n那美国就不高兴了\n你这个是什么\n你这个是\n你这个背后插刀\n所以贝森特一听\n你们这个日币守不住\n第一个讲就是说\n你不你要\n你就是你只有一条路\n就是什么\n生息\n那为什么麻生他们反对生息\n日本现在的利息是非常的低\n可是日本有两大问题\n第一个你升息以后\n日本的国债\n你这个利息就会吃掉\n日本国债的利息\n国债这个日本政府\n每年要负担的利息就很重\n你再升息利息更重\n那会怎么样\n排挤很多社会福利的这些开支\n很多政府的必要的开支\n那因为日本的国债\n它是目前它的GDP的\n这个2.6倍\n如果以4兆来算日本的GDP的话\n那大概就是10.4兆美元的国债\n日本这么小一个国家\n对不对\n他的国债是美国国债的四分之\n这个好四分之一\n日本也不过\n美国才不过40兆\n他就10兆了\n对\n可是问题国债\n第一个\n你如果升息的话\n那第一个\n美国日本政府的负担会更重\n第二个问题是什么\n第二个问题\n日本有25万家僵尸企业\n这些僵尸企业还撑住的话\n就是因为他的银行贷款的利息还很低\n如果他的利息提高的话\n那这些僵尸企业的银行利率\n会把这些僵尸企业都怎么样\n让他们破产\n25万的僵尸企业\n这样一破产下去\n日本会造成一个重大的经济危机\n那最主要是大量的失业人口\n这是很严重的政治问题\n所以我们就看\n高市早苗如果他要升息的话\n他就要面临日本的经济的\n一个可能比日元贬值更大的冲击\n可是他敢去卖美债吗\n他一切都要靠美国了\n他现在不管搞军国主义\n搞一大堆美国人还没坑气\n美国人要坑气\n他路就走不通\n所以他现在不敢得罪美国\n所以我看他最后可能还是怎么样\n就是升息\n那升息的话就看\n那大家日本人就自己\n自己看这般了\n支持我們製作高品質的影片\n點擊下方的加入鍵\n一起成為戰友吧\n我們會員頻道見", "language": "zh", "duration": 2783.468875, "segments": [ { "start": 0.0, "end": 10.5, "text": "最近幾十年,他都在低利率零利率的狀況之下,大家都借日元然後去投資美股,然後投資美債,美股欣欣向榮。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16853977234895565, "no_speech_prob": 7.893054265739607e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3508064516129032 }, { "start": 10.5, "end": 22.4, "text": "可是現在反向操作的時候,就變成什麼樣子?就變成日元的利率上升,大家就回頭要去買日元了。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16853977234895565, "no_speech_prob": 7.893054265739607e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3508064516129032 }, { "start": 22.4, "end": 29.2, "text": "為什麼美國去救日元反而是拋歐元?因為他不能拋美元。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16853977234895565, "no_speech_prob": 7.893054265739607e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3508064516129032 }, { "start": 29.2, "end": 31.08, "text": "他一抛美元美国不值钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 31.08, "end": 33.42, "text": "然后美债的殖利率更高", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 33.42, "end": 34.42, "text": "更没人要", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 34.42, "end": 36.9, "text": "他们现在最担心的日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 36.9, "end": 39.78, "text": "最后变成压垮骆驼的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 39.78, "end": 41.26, "text": "最后一根稻草的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 41.26, "end": 43.28, "text": "变成美元回贬", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 43.28, "end": 46.88, "text": "没人救得起美国的一个债务", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 46.88, "end": 47.86, "text": "我们看到日本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 47.86, "end": 49.86, "text": "接下来如果升级的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 49.86, "end": 50.96, "text": "不管是对政府", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 50.96, "end": 51.84, "text": "对于企业", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 51.84, "end": 52.9, "text": "甚至对一般老百姓", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 52.9, "end": 56.04, "text": "都会造成相当程度的压力", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 56.04, "end": 58.28, "text": "但是由于现在的通膨问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11181138753890991, "no_speech_prob": 1.842300964560728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.325088339222615 }, { "start": 58.28, "end": 59.26, "text": "还有要救日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 59.26, "end": 61.6, "text": "日本政府看起来是不得不升息了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 61.6, "end": 62.94, "text": "那如果升息的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 62.94, "end": 64.18, "text": "接下来的影响就是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 64.18, "end": 67.7, "text": "我们知道美日之间的套利空间缩小了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 67.7, "end": 69.54, "text": "这些国际的资金可能一口气", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 69.54, "end": 72.12, "text": "就会从美股美债等等测出来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 72.12, "end": 75.02, "text": "接下来如果美债的部分", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 75.02, "end": 76.48, "text": "再次的资金测出来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 76.48, "end": 77.68, "text": "会不会导致它的殖利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 77.68, "end": 79.74, "text": "再继续的往上飙升呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 79.74, "end": 81.68, "text": "那接下来对于美国霸权的影响", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 81.68, "end": 83.08, "text": "是不是压力又更大了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 83.08, "end": 83.96, "text": "吕政长怎么看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 83.96, "end": 86.88, "text": "我们看到今年6月的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0868745845752758, "no_speech_prob": 1.3444710622589895e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4231974921630095 }, { "start": 86.88, "end": 89.8, "text": "川普总统进入G7峰会的会场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 89.8, "end": 90.44, "text": "他说什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 90.44, "end": 91.84, "text": "I am the boss", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 91.84, "end": 93.84, "text": "我才是你们的老板", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 93.84, "end": 97.36, "text": "最近这句话又出现了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 97.36, "end": 98.64, "text": "可是是类似的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 98.64, "end": 99.64, "text": "是谁讲的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 99.64, "end": 100.74, "text": "是倍生特讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 100.74, "end": 104.18, "text": "也就是美国的财政部长", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 104.18, "end": 108.06, "text": "他直接告诉日本的财务大臣说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 108.06, "end": 109.9, "text": "我才是庄家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 109.9, "end": 111.06, "text": "意思是什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 111.06, "end": 115.4, "text": "有关于利率汇率以及美债的问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 115.4, "end": 116.68, "text": "我做主", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14901138074470288, "no_speech_prob": 1.2304363257442663e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.176923076923077 }, { "start": 116.68, "end": 119.0, "text": "这个就是一个霸权的思维", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 119.0, "end": 120.82, "text": "但是这个霸权的思维", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 120.82, "end": 122.12, "text": "还能撑得下去", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 122.12, "end": 124.28, "text": "还能撑得下去吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 124.28, "end": 125.4, "text": "我们来看一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 125.4, "end": 127.88, "text": "这张图我们上面看到的是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 127.88, "end": 129.96, "text": "美债的十年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 129.96, "end": 132.56, "text": "十年期的一个殖利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 132.56, "end": 134.62, "text": "下面的是三十年期的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 134.62, "end": 136.22, "text": "可是我们看到这是什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 136.22, "end": 137.76, "text": "它不断的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 137.76, "end": 138.86, "text": "这是十年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 138.86, "end": 140.96, "text": "就是不断的往上攀升", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 140.96, "end": 142.88, "text": "往上攀升的意思是什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 142.88, "end": 144.58, "text": "也就是美债不值钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 144.58, "end": 146.18, "text": "美债为什么不值钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09903238915108345, "no_speech_prob": 1.0966639922560528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.7419354838709677 }, { "start": 146.18, "end": 147.98, "text": "因为大家都在卖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 147.98, "end": 151.2, "text": "这个是我们看到30年期的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 151.2, "end": 152.92, "text": "30年期的更夸张", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 152.92, "end": 157.36, "text": "它已经到达了5.37的一个殖利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 157.36, "end": 161.4, "text": "其实这个殖利率非常接近2007年的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 161.4, "end": 165.3, "text": "金融海啸的时候的这个水准", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 165.3, "end": 166.32, "text": "意思是什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 166.32, "end": 168.1, "text": "大家都不想要持有", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 168.1, "end": 171.18, "text": "这个相对的也就是我们前一段时间看的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 171.18, "end": 172.78, "text": "大家持有黄金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156121860850941, "no_speech_prob": 7.380705421833333e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3215859030837005 }, { "start": 172.78, "end": 176.3, "text": "也就是这是一种对向操作", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 176.3, "end": 178.16, "text": "我卖了绝对不会", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 178.16, "end": 181.34, "text": "就是以现金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 181.34, "end": 184.5, "text": "在现金的部位上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 184.5, "end": 187.76, "text": "而是直接的去投资另外一个商品", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 187.76, "end": 188.94, "text": "那个就是黄金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 188.94, "end": 190.78, "text": "我们看到这个状况", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 190.78, "end": 193.08, "text": "其实也就告诉我们", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 193.08, "end": 195.18, "text": "大家都不看好美债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 195.18, "end": 197.34, "text": "大家都不看好美债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 197.34, "end": 199.9, "text": "偏偏你日本现在要升息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 199.9, "end": 201.46, "text": "你当然是迫于无奈", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13399221979338546, "no_speech_prob": 6.9825651337340755e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3392857142857142 }, { "start": 201.46, "end": 203.94, "text": "但是从贝森特的角度来讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 203.94, "end": 205.08, "text": "我是庄家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 205.08, "end": 206.22, "text": "那我是庄家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 206.22, "end": 207.66, "text": "我为什么要当这个庄家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 207.66, "end": 210.82, "text": "因为你日元的利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 210.82, "end": 212.08, "text": "只要上升的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 212.08, "end": 212.88, "text": "那对不起", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 212.88, "end": 214.84, "text": "刚刚主持人讲到的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 214.84, "end": 216.9, "text": "这个套利的空间就不见了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 216.9, "end": 217.2, "text": "为什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 217.2, "end": 219.24, "text": "因为刚刚杨老师特别讲到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 219.24, "end": 220.74, "text": "日本最近几年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 220.74, "end": 222.82, "text": "其实可能不是最近几年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 222.82, "end": 223.98, "text": "最近几十年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 223.98, "end": 226.62, "text": "他都在低利率零利率的状况之下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 226.62, "end": 228.42, "text": "大家都借日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 228.42, "end": 230.58, "text": "然后去投资美股", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09595199755042981, "no_speech_prob": 1.1183651227320013e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440298507462686 }, { "start": 230.58, "end": 231.82, "text": "然后投资美债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 231.82, "end": 234.04, "text": "那在这种状况之下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 234.04, "end": 236.92, "text": "那当然我们看到美股欣欣向荣", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 236.92, "end": 239.9, "text": "美债它的殖利率低", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 239.9, "end": 242.4, "text": "可是现在反向操作的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 242.4, "end": 243.72, "text": "就变成什么样子", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 243.72, "end": 247.42, "text": "就变成你日元的利率上升", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 247.42, "end": 252.12, "text": "大家就回头要去买日元了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 252.12, "end": 254.64, "text": "那在这种状况之下就糟了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 254.64, "end": 257.24, "text": "也就是我们前一段时间看到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1219904899597168, "no_speech_prob": 1.0885673439042787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3548387096774193 }, { "start": 257.24, "end": 260.82, "text": "为什么美国去救日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 260.82, "end": 262.82, "text": "反而是抛欧元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 262.82, "end": 264.84, "text": "因为他不能抛美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 264.84, "end": 267.04, "text": "他一抛美元美国不值钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 267.04, "end": 269.36, "text": "然后美债的殖利率更高", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 269.36, "end": 270.34, "text": "更没人要", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 270.34, "end": 272.12, "text": "所以我们现在看到的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 272.12, "end": 274.2, "text": "其实是美国的一个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 274.2, "end": 277.7, "text": "整体的债务泥落", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 277.7, "end": 279.2, "text": "这个债务泥落", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 279.2, "end": 282.84, "text": "其实美国一直想要回购美债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 282.84, "end": 284.7, "text": "拉抬这个美债的价格", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 284.7, "end": 286.02, "text": "来挽救", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11037123019878681, "no_speech_prob": 7.712334243459296e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3772727272727272 }, { "start": 286.02, "end": 288.98, "text": "可能如果AI出现了一个转折", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 288.98, "end": 292.2, "text": "实际上他们财政是拉不赢的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 292.2, "end": 293.3, "text": "但是问题是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 293.3, "end": 295.0, "text": "他们现在最担心的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 295.0, "end": 298.78, "text": "日元最后变成压垮骆驼的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 298.78, "end": 300.26, "text": "最后一根稻草的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 300.26, "end": 302.48, "text": "变成美元回贬", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 302.48, "end": 306.0, "text": "没人救得起美国的一个债务", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 306.0, "end": 308.72, "text": "今天有关于这一场金融炸弹", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 308.72, "end": 309.88, "text": "要来看到的是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 309.88, "end": 311.9, "text": "日本才在一个月内", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 311.9, "end": 313.14, "text": "而且是单日我们看到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 313.14, "end": 315.1, "text": "日本为了救贿砸下了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1154731544288429, "no_speech_prob": 1.0760739521664675e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304029304029304 }, { "start": 315.1, "end": 319.4, "text": "大约是高达了900亿日元要来救日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 319.4, "end": 322.82, "text": "那当时我们看到在它的拯救之下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 322.82, "end": 326.7, "text": "我们看到如今美元对上日元是已经来到了153", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 326.7, "end": 328.86, "text": "确实它有在升值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 328.86, "end": 330.26, "text": "一边是在升值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 330.26, "end": 333.9, "text": "但是日本的内部现在出现了一个很奇怪的景象", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 333.9, "end": 337.7, "text": "就是散户为什么还是在持续的放空呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 337.7, "end": 340.12, "text": "难道是对于日本政府没有信心吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 340.12, "end": 342.58, "text": "而且放空的金额是非常非常高的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266258470939868, "no_speech_prob": 1.2176276480146964e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3440860215053763 }, { "start": 342.58, "end": 345.28, "text": "散户在近期的净空日元部位", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 345.28, "end": 349.74, "text": "高达了3.61兆的日元这么高的一个部位", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 349.74, "end": 352.82, "text": "换句话说市场还有一大群人正在压住", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 352.82, "end": 356.28, "text": "日元还会继续的跌下去", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 356.28, "end": 360.4, "text": "这波日元反攻也同时是日本政府要救日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 360.4, "end": 365.46, "text": "也被形容对于美国来说像是金融版的珍珠港2.0", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 365.46, "end": 367.38, "text": "有点像是一个突袭事件", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 367.38, "end": 369.36, "text": "等一下我们也会持续的解读", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 369.36, "end": 371.6, "text": "那另外一方面其实要持续关心的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07735396950108231, "no_speech_prob": 1.3597930073605546e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3230240549828178 }, { "start": 371.6, "end": 373.18, "text": "就是因为日本的央行了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 373.18, "end": 376.48, "text": "9月份如果一旦真的升息的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 376.48, "end": 379.1, "text": "现在看起来不断放空的这些散户", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 379.1, "end": 380.74, "text": "会不会面临危机呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 380.74, "end": 382.38, "text": "我们刚刚说了金额非常的高", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 382.38, "end": 384.18, "text": "高达3.61兆", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 384.18, "end": 386.62, "text": "会不会成为下一颗金融炸弹", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 386.62, "end": 388.98, "text": "因为到时候他们如果再继续空下去的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 388.98, "end": 390.54, "text": "就要开始做回补了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 390.54, "end": 394.62, "text": "那引爆的就会是日元空投的一场大屠杀", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 394.62, "end": 398.06, "text": "这个是来自于专家所做的一个市井", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 398.06, "end": 401.38, "text": "好一边是日元可能会面临大屠杀", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0929193719785813, "no_speech_prob": 1.5161630631532752e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3510971786833856 }, { "start": 401.38, "end": 403.28, "text": "另外一边日本的债市要来看到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 403.28, "end": 407.16, "text": "十年其国债殖利率已经冲破了3%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 407.16, "end": 410.38, "text": "也是数十年最高的一个数字", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 410.38, "end": 413.02, "text": "现在日本的债务成本已经越来越高了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 413.02, "end": 416.86, "text": "超过目前所编列的31兆日元大关", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 416.86, "end": 418.04, "text": "好 今天节目一开始", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 418.04, "end": 419.4, "text": "我们要先请教杨老师了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 419.4, "end": 422.74, "text": "首先是日元暴冲153字头", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 422.74, "end": 425.38, "text": "但是散户还在持续的放空", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 425.38, "end": 426.2, "text": "会不会引爆", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 426.2, "end": 427.96, "text": "接下来一旦日本升息了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0812750700357798, "no_speech_prob": 1.4666613409874962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2912280701754386 }, { "start": 427.96, "end": 432.08, "text": "出现日本的日元空投大屠杀呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 432.08, "end": 433.96, "text": "散户为什么要持续的放空", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 433.96, "end": 436.42, "text": "是表示对于政府没有信心吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 436.42, "end": 438.52, "text": "再来就是有关于日本的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 438.52, "end": 439.66, "text": "这个日在殖利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 439.66, "end": 441.82, "text": "不断的狂飙到现在3%了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 441.82, "end": 444.16, "text": "接下来对于企业跟政府来说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 444.16, "end": 446.6, "text": "是不是等于在融资成本上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 446.6, "end": 448.28, "text": "把他们推向另外一个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 448.28, "end": 449.92, "text": "财政上的悬崖呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 449.92, "end": 451.1, "text": "那杨老师怎么看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 451.1, "end": 453.66, "text": "现在大家都变成国际金融专家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 453.66, "end": 455.7, "text": "如果没有成为专家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 455.7, "end": 457.44, "text": "至少这个是重要议题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08750933585082285, "no_speech_prob": 9.876009732234792e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 457.44, "end": 458.94, "text": "大家都会很想知道", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 458.94, "end": 461.02, "text": "我先不讲就是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 461.02, "end": 462.04, "text": "这个散户", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 462.04, "end": 465.54, "text": "它会不会成为一把柴火", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 465.54, "end": 467.34, "text": "造成整个日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 467.34, "end": 469.54, "text": "跟日本的财政的问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 469.54, "end": 472.96, "text": "以及散户如果说持续放空", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 472.96, "end": 474.04, "text": "然后升息之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 474.04, "end": 475.68, "text": "会不会有严重的冲击", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 475.68, "end": 476.86, "text": "我们先讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 476.86, "end": 477.98, "text": "接下来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14345631996790567, "no_speech_prob": 1.3813832890063882e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.163265306122449 }, { "start": 478.382, "end": 485.882, "text": "我們先講,接下來這一個月好了,因為講長了,其實不準。到底日園會升還是扁?", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19845949928715545, "no_speech_prob": 8.875033520594489e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.248995983935743 }, { "start": 485.882, "end": 490.882, "text": "我個人認為,升的機會比扁的機會要低得多。", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19845949928715545, "no_speech_prob": 8.875033520594489e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.248995983935743 }, { "start": 490.882, "end": 493.742, "text": "因为现在是153.63", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 493.742, "end": 497.062, "text": "那大概现在从153到155", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 497.062, "end": 498.422, "text": "我觉得这段期间", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 498.422, "end": 502.562, "text": "在就是9月18号之前", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 502.562, "end": 504.142, "text": "这很可能会出现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 504.142, "end": 505.622, "text": "也就是继续会贬下去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 505.622, "end": 508.182, "text": "那到155甚至到156", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 508.182, "end": 508.802, "text": "为什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 508.802, "end": 510.362, "text": "因为大家预期现在", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 510.362, "end": 514.042, "text": "日本银行的鹰派讲话声音非常重", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 514.042, "end": 515.082, "text": "也就是它会升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 515.082, "end": 516.842, "text": "你一旦升息的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 516.842, "end": 518.442, "text": "其实日元走贬", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 518.442, "end": 520.082, "text": "这是比较有可能的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1454887968121153, "no_speech_prob": 1.0257008783987054e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2755905511811023 }, { "start": 520.082, "end": 522.382, "text": "那接下来的问题是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 522.382, "end": 526.662, "text": "那到了9月18号的时候的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 526.662, "end": 528.822, "text": "左右同一个时间吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 528.822, "end": 531.082, "text": "美国会不会升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 531.082, "end": 532.662, "text": "现在看起来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 532.662, "end": 535.482, "text": "美国升息跟降息都存在", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 535.482, "end": 537.962, "text": "但升息的空间其实比较高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 537.962, "end": 538.762, "text": "为什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 538.762, "end": 542.622, "text": "国际油价现在来到101块布兰特原油", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 542.622, "end": 545.562, "text": "所以对于通膨的压力越来越大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 545.562, "end": 547.122, "text": "除非在未来这几天", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13724785015500826, "no_speech_prob": 1.0775922688888162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2199170124481329 }, { "start": 547.122, "end": 550.282, "text": "它能够快速的下降到85块", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 550.282, "end": 551.802, "text": "但我觉得可能性不高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 551.802, "end": 553.982, "text": "所以美国的通膨的因素", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 553.982, "end": 556.462, "text": "会使得美国的升息的机会", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 556.462, "end": 557.582, "text": "越来越高了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 557.582, "end": 558.782, "text": "虽然有人说放话", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 558.782, "end": 561.302, "text": "要看八月的一些经济的指数", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 561.302, "end": 563.662, "text": "但是这种温哥派的声音", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 563.662, "end": 565.062, "text": "现在又消失了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 565.062, "end": 566.202, "text": "所以美国升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 566.202, "end": 567.262, "text": "日本升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 567.262, "end": 567.962, "text": "这什么意思", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 567.962, "end": 568.882, "text": "那就是说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 568.882, "end": 572.162, "text": "日元的贬值一个当初最大的原因", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 572.162, "end": 574.202, "text": "就是美元跟日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 574.202, "end": 576.642, "text": "在汇率上的那个差别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0972277323404948, "no_speech_prob": 1.1345069848844869e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.332191780821918 }, { "start": 576.642, "end": 578.402, "text": "那种利差带来的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 578.402, "end": 579.702, "text": "就是说Carrie Trade", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 579.702, "end": 581.862, "text": "利差贸易的这个效益", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 581.862, "end": 584.762, "text": "我去借个一千万的日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 584.762, "end": 586.382, "text": "我换成美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 586.382, "end": 588.602, "text": "先不管汇率怎么样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 588.602, "end": 590.442, "text": "因为利率差别很大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 590.442, "end": 592.862, "text": "所以汇率如果维持在一个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 592.862, "end": 594.262, "text": "可接受不动的范围", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 594.262, "end": 595.542, "text": "我然后去投资", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 595.542, "end": 597.482, "text": "比较高报酬的一些标的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 597.482, "end": 598.802, "text": "比如说辉达的股票", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 598.802, "end": 600.402, "text": "那我就赚这个东西", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 600.402, "end": 602.722, "text": "这个就是现在我们讲的散户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 602.722, "end": 603.922, "text": "散户有一个称呼", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 603.922, "end": 605.122, "text": "叫做渡边太太", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10795040357680548, "no_speech_prob": 1.150783981995751e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2745098039215685 }, { "start": 605.122, "end": 606.802, "text": "渡边太太是一个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 606.802, "end": 608.522, "text": "经济学上的说法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 608.522, "end": 610.222, "text": "这是经济学人发明的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 610.222, "end": 611.142, "text": "也就是说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 611.142, "end": 614.082, "text": "现在拥有3.61兆日元的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 614.082, "end": 615.002, "text": "日本的散户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 615.002, "end": 617.662, "text": "因为最早最早在做这些操作的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 617.662, "end": 619.042, "text": "其实是一些家庭主妇", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 619.042, "end": 621.802, "text": "其实我很怀疑", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 621.802, "end": 623.262, "text": "日本家庭主妇哪有那么厉害", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 623.262, "end": 624.142, "text": "不管怎么样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 624.142, "end": 626.602, "text": "这个是经济学人发明的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 626.602, "end": 627.222, "text": "渡边太太", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 627.222, "end": 628.602, "text": "也就是日本的散户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 628.602, "end": 630.542, "text": "现在基本上其实看到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 630.542, "end": 634.082, "text": "美国跟日本的利率的差别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12369061708450317, "no_speech_prob": 1.2372179669650762e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5338645418326693 }, { "start": 634.082, "end": 635.642, "text": "所以如果他两个都升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 635.642, "end": 637.062, "text": "那什么差别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 637.062, "end": 638.302, "text": "那日元就继续扁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 638.302, "end": 640.642, "text": "但是日元扁会有一个禁区", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 640.642, "end": 644.902, "text": "扁了如果扁到160以上的话", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 644.902, "end": 648.462, "text": "那双方的政府就跟上次一样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 648.462, "end": 650.502, "text": "都会进来这个操盘", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 650.502, "end": 653.102, "text": "因为你到了一定的压力的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 653.102, "end": 655.782, "text": "日本就被迫可能要卖更多的美债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 655.782, "end": 657.662, "text": "在过去的三个礼拜", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 657.662, "end": 660.962, "text": "日本就卖了将近900亿的美债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 660.962, "end": 663.402, "text": "这个使得贝森特非常不高兴", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11341827594681292, "no_speech_prob": 1.1500848016987586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 663.402, "end": 666.382, "text": "所以在这样的一个空间范围之内", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 666.382, "end": 668.742, "text": "它的利差会持续", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 668.742, "end": 671.122, "text": "除非今天日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 671.122, "end": 673.362, "text": "如果日元不升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 673.362, "end": 675.122, "text": "我给你那贬得更严重", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 675.122, "end": 677.822, "text": "因为大家就更不看好", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 677.822, "end": 679.282, "text": "日元未来的这种情况", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 679.282, "end": 681.182, "text": "因此这样子的情况", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 681.182, "end": 683.282, "text": "如果这个利差继续存在", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 683.282, "end": 685.062, "text": "日元持续贬", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 685.062, "end": 686.782, "text": "或者在这个范围的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 686.782, "end": 689.242, "text": "就是说不会升的这种情况", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 689.242, "end": 690.622, "text": "会持续一段时间", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12948691389942898, "no_speech_prob": 1.0452586712839107e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 690.622, "end": 693.462, "text": "但是它不会贬到160以下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 693.462, "end": 696.222, "text": "那可是应该讲160以上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 696.222, "end": 697.842, "text": "可是现在最大的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 697.842, "end": 699.462, "text": "其实就是日本债市", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 699.462, "end": 702.722, "text": "现在已经它的国债的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 702.722, "end": 703.742, "text": "冲破3%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 703.742, "end": 706.202, "text": "将来可能日元的海外的资产", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 706.202, "end": 709.002, "text": "必须要处理而回到日本来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 709.002, "end": 710.062, "text": "来维持个平衡", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 710.062, "end": 711.042, "text": "所以将来我们会看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 711.042, "end": 712.722, "text": "它会在这个范围之内", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 712.722, "end": 714.722, "text": "持续的摆动", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 714.722, "end": 716.942, "text": "好 这个是第一颗金融炸弹", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 716.942, "end": 719.542, "text": "我们说一边是日元现在升值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13316186892440895, "no_speech_prob": 1.2015054749736631e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3066202090592334 }, { "start": 719.542, "end": 721.482, "text": "那这个日元出现了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 721.482, "end": 723.582, "text": "未来会不会出现这种很严重的空单", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 723.582, "end": 726.182, "text": "因为散户还是在狂空日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 726.182, "end": 728.022, "text": "那会不会引爆另外一颗金融杀单", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 728.022, "end": 728.762, "text": "这是第一个问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 728.762, "end": 729.422, "text": "那第二个问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 729.422, "end": 731.202, "text": "等一下也会请丽将军带我们看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 731.202, "end": 732.722, "text": "就是刚刚杨老师也特别提到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 732.722, "end": 733.422, "text": "9月份嘛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 733.422, "end": 736.062, "text": "也许接下来美国跟日本都会升息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 736.062, "end": 737.642, "text": "如果升息的话代表说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 737.642, "end": 738.502, "text": "这个美日利差", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 738.502, "end": 740.862, "text": "已经没有什么获利空间可讲了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 740.862, "end": 743.842, "text": "那现在这个全球的日元套利交易规模", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 743.842, "end": 745.242, "text": "是360亿日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 745.242, "end": 747.362, "text": "一旦资金从美方这边撤出的话", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08307410761253121, "no_speech_prob": 1.8184436595403142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.373961218836565 }, { "start": 747.362, "end": 749.582, "text": "对于美债恐怕是更不利的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 749.582, "end": 750.922, "text": "那会造成什么样的影响", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 750.922, "end": 752.682, "text": "等一下我们持续请丽将军看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 752.682, "end": 753.762, "text": "那这边呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 753.762, "end": 756.062, "text": "美国确实贝森特真的要担心", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 756.062, "end": 757.302, "text": "因为美国呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 757.302, "end": 759.942, "text": "美债先是说破了40兆之外", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 759.942, "end": 761.962, "text": "这些长天期短天期的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 761.962, "end": 764.422, "text": "这个美债殖利率也都不断的在创高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 764.422, "end": 766.582, "text": "首先呢我们看到贝森特", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 766.582, "end": 769.162, "text": "他已经回购了60亿日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 769.162, "end": 772.022, "text": "针对10年期跟20年期的美债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 772.022, "end": 773.082, "text": "就是要来救美债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 773.082, "end": 774.462, "text": "那这次的规模呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 774.462, "end": 776.602, "text": "20年期的部分更是前一次", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08848333358764648, "no_speech_prob": 1.8522648692620436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3789808917197452 }, { "start": 776.602, "end": 778.782, "text": "20亿美元的三倍", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 778.782, "end": 780.362, "text": "但是重点来了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 780.362, "end": 782.982, "text": "市场现在看起来是完全不买单的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 782.982, "end": 785.122, "text": "我们来看到10年期的美债殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 785.122, "end": 787.582, "text": "已经冲到了4.8%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 787.582, "end": 789.982, "text": "创下30年的新高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 789.982, "end": 792.102, "text": "30年期更扯了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 792.102, "end": 794.002, "text": "已经突破了5.3%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 794.002, "end": 795.662, "text": "这两个数字要注意了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 795.662, "end": 798.182, "text": "其实都已经几乎是来到警戒线了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 798.182, "end": 800.682, "text": "所以现在最新是两位经济学家", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 800.682, "end": 802.282, "text": "都已经开始做出了市井", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 802.282, "end": 806.002, "text": "第一位他是布鲁金斯学会的资深研究员", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08575534224510192, "no_speech_prob": 1.3627864461907002e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2919463087248322 }, { "start": 806.002, "end": 808.402, "text": "他说长期的这种殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 808.402, "end": 813.022, "text": "已经进入到各方要全面应战的局面了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 813.022, "end": 815.042, "text": "那再来就是第二位专家", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 815.042, "end": 817.502, "text": "他是洛克菲勒国际董事", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 817.502, "end": 820.602, "text": "他也分析美债突破了40兆美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 820.602, "end": 824.122, "text": "如果十年期的殖利率突破了5%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 824.122, "end": 826.302, "text": "刚刚我们说已经来到4.8%了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 826.302, "end": 829.002, "text": "那么将类似过去的网路泡沫的悲剧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 829.002, "end": 833.162, "text": "这一次会破裂的就是现在最夯的AI泡沫了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08096787787431123, "no_speech_prob": 1.2860850405471691e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2536231884057971 }, { "start": 833.162, "end": 834.762, "text": "接下来对于美债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 834.762, "end": 836.442, "text": "还有长天期的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 836.442, "end": 837.722, "text": "真的压得住吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 837.722, "end": 838.722, "text": "蓝老师怎么看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 838.722, "end": 841.762, "text": "我觉得目前对美国来说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 841.762, "end": 843.282, "text": "是很困难的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 843.282, "end": 846.262, "text": "因为我们也看到多在市井", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 846.262, "end": 848.522, "text": "殖利率为什么会高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 848.522, "end": 850.262, "text": "尤其长天期的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 850.262, "end": 852.522, "text": "例如说10年的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 852.522, "end": 854.002, "text": "30年的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 854.002, "end": 855.702, "text": "殖利率高意思也就是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 855.702, "end": 857.942, "text": "我对你的公债不信任", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 857.942, "end": 860.102, "text": "因为我不信任", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 860.102, "end": 861.642, "text": "你要我买你的公债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13939042886098227, "no_speech_prob": 8.764618371348565e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319 }, { "start": 861.642, "end": 863.522, "text": "那你要给我更好的一个保障", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 863.522, "end": 864.662, "text": "那这个保障", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 864.662, "end": 867.082, "text": "其实就是指利率就这样翻身上来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 867.082, "end": 869.042, "text": "所以各位想想", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 869.042, "end": 872.702, "text": "我们在台湾经济很热很热的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 872.702, "end": 874.862, "text": "那时候资金到处缺乏", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 874.862, "end": 876.602, "text": "资金到处缺乏", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 876.602, "end": 879.702, "text": "也就是说各个企业家银行都需要抢钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 879.702, "end": 880.902, "text": "都需要抢钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 880.902, "end": 883.302, "text": "再用更高利率的贷款", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 883.302, "end": 884.922, "text": "贷给中小企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 884.922, "end": 886.842, "text": "在那段时间内", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 886.842, "end": 888.622, "text": "银行的利率都高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 888.622, "end": 890.542, "text": "高达7%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10967261881767949, "no_speech_prob": 1.0202765715616735e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.37890625 }, { "start": 890.542, "end": 892.742, "text": "高达7%的那个美好的时代", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 892.742, "end": 895.242, "text": "在我们台湾的那段时间里面", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 895.242, "end": 897.782, "text": "所有的只要手上有闲钱的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 897.782, "end": 898.882, "text": "你想想看你一百万", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 898.882, "end": 902.322, "text": "你一年就赚7% 就7万块", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 902.322, "end": 904.722, "text": "那这个利息是很高的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 904.722, "end": 906.922, "text": "本金 然后银行是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 906.922, "end": 908.202, "text": "低风险的一个地方", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 908.202, "end": 910.962, "text": "可是你每一年就是7万块的收入", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 910.962, "end": 912.402, "text": "那就是很高的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 912.402, "end": 913.702, "text": "那但是为什么银行愿意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 913.702, "end": 914.702, "text": "拿那么高的利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 914.702, "end": 917.102, "text": "就是因为企业需要钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 917.102, "end": 919.602, "text": "那企业愿意用更高的贷款的利息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17953438036369554, "no_speech_prob": 9.569122404184949e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4225352112676057 }, { "start": 919.602, "end": 921.162, "text": "来支付这个银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 921.162, "end": 923.582, "text": "所以银行要从我们市场上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 923.582, "end": 924.682, "text": "来拿这个利息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 924.682, "end": 926.582, "text": "可是现在的问题是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 926.582, "end": 929.502, "text": "现在殖利率一直升高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 929.502, "end": 930.462, "text": "这个钱是给谁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 930.462, "end": 931.782, "text": "是给美国政府花", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 931.782, "end": 933.542, "text": "所以等于是美国政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 933.542, "end": 936.222, "text": "要用更高的钱来去买这个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 936.222, "end": 938.382, "text": "卖掉他们的政府的公债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 938.382, "end": 939.302, "text": "来付这个利息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12320132438953106, "no_speech_prob": 1.79483910373035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.40625 }, { "start": 940.142, "end": 941.682, "text": "可是问题是在于", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525235312325614, "no_speech_prob": 8.147444524597702e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.6212765957446809 }, { "start": 941.682, "end": 944.922, "text": "美国政府的债务是越来越大了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525235312325614, "no_speech_prob": 8.147444524597702e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.6212765957446809 }, { "start": 944.922, "end": 946.762, "text": "他债务大到一个程度", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525235312325614, "no_speech_prob": 8.147444524597702e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.6212765957446809 }, { "start": 946.762, "end": 949.722, "text": "他的政府的税收支付不了的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525235312325614, "no_speech_prob": 8.147444524597702e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.6212765957446809 }, { "start": 949.722, "end": 952.522, "text": "就是美国政府破产的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525235312325614, "no_speech_prob": 8.147444524597702e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.6212765957446809 }, { "start": 952.522, "end": 953.922, "text": "美国政府一旦破产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525235312325614, "no_speech_prob": 8.147444524597702e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.6212765957446809 }, { "start": 953.922, "end": 957.062, "text": "他就没有钱再去还这个利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 957.062, "end": 958.602, "text": "再去还这个本金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 958.602, "end": 960.122, "text": "那这样的情形下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 960.122, "end": 962.862, "text": "你手上有美国政府公债的人", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 962.862, "end": 964.302, "text": "他可能血本无归", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 964.302, "end": 966.602, "text": "他可能会面临很大的问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 966.602, "end": 967.962, "text": "而对美国政府来说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 967.962, "end": 970.042, "text": "买美国政府公债的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 970.042, "end": 972.402, "text": "最大的客户是国内的企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 972.402, "end": 974.182, "text": "国内的银行金融机构", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 974.182, "end": 975.742, "text": "是美国政府最大的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 975.742, "end": 978.142, "text": "可是另外一部分是外国政府", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 978.142, "end": 980.782, "text": "可是外国政府他通常有规定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 980.782, "end": 982.722, "text": "也就是外国像我们台湾来讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1467078263592568, "no_speech_prob": 1.0807686343095035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5632183908045978 }, { "start": 982.722, "end": 984.222, "text": "就有这么一个规定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 984.222, "end": 986.602, "text": "如果美国的性质不是三个A的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 986.602, "end": 987.862, "text": "我们就必须要抛售", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 987.862, "end": 989.302, "text": "美国政府的公债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 989.302, "end": 990.822, "text": "我们一定要是三个A", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 990.822, "end": 993.302, "text": "因为那是人民的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 993.302, "end": 995.662, "text": "人民的退休的基金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 995.662, "end": 998.002, "text": "还有邮政储金等等的这些", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 998.002, "end": 998.842, "text": "都是政府的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 998.842, "end": 1000.142, "text": "都是人民的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1000.142, "end": 1001.242, "text": "所以我们必须要有", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1001.242, "end": 1002.382, "text": "最好的一个保障", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1002.382, "end": 1003.342, "text": "一定要三个A", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1003.342, "end": 1004.242, "text": "那美国政府", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1004.242, "end": 1006.282, "text": "如果你的政府的公债越来越大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1006.282, "end": 1007.442, "text": "你的政府的收入", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1007.442, "end": 1008.722, "text": "财政收入不够", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1008.722, "end": 1010.682, "text": "你在支付上有问题的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1010.682, "end": 1011.922, "text": "你的平等被评为", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1844585329987282, "no_speech_prob": 1.2741701790885962e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6285714285714286 }, { "start": 1011.922, "end": 1013.422, "text": "两个A 或是一个A", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1013.422, "end": 1015.262, "text": "那很多国家就被破", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1015.262, "end": 1017.762, "text": "他必须要抛售美国政府的公债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1017.762, "end": 1019.562, "text": "当他一旦抛售美国政府的公债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1019.562, "end": 1022.502, "text": "那你对美国来说的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1022.502, "end": 1024.462, "text": "你就必须要拿出更多的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1024.462, "end": 1025.842, "text": "给人家数回来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1025.842, "end": 1027.402, "text": "那数回来的情形下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1027.402, "end": 1030.402, "text": "您看到对美国的政府破产的速度", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1030.402, "end": 1031.982, "text": "就会加快", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1031.982, "end": 1033.342, "text": "现在的情况是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1033.342, "end": 1034.582, "text": "所有的分析家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1034.582, "end": 1037.142, "text": "甚至连巴菲特都在预警了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1037.142, "end": 1038.622, "text": "说要破产了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1038.622, "end": 1039.982, "text": "大家要小心", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1039.982, "end": 1041.922, "text": "你拿美元的人要小心", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17756447511560777, "no_speech_prob": 1.1173314010126667e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4727272727272727 }, { "start": 1041.922, "end": 1044.482, "text": "你买美国政府公债人要小心", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1044.482, "end": 1046.522, "text": "连拿美元的人都要小心", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1046.522, "end": 1047.322, "text": "那也就是说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1047.322, "end": 1050.522, "text": "你以后你美元也是不值钱的东西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1050.522, "end": 1052.662, "text": "不值钱的货币那怎么办", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1052.662, "end": 1055.162, "text": "所以我们可以看到很多的国家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1055.162, "end": 1057.062, "text": "都在开始做避险", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1057.062, "end": 1058.262, "text": "那在做避险里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1058.262, "end": 1060.882, "text": "有人国家是把黄金搬走了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1060.882, "end": 1062.582, "text": "最强而有力的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1062.582, "end": 1063.982, "text": "就是最显著的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1063.982, "end": 1065.482, "text": "就是上个礼拜", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1065.482, "end": 1068.482, "text": "荷兰已经把他的黄金又搬走了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1068.482, "end": 1071.482, "text": "搬走了这个70几公顿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16622477311354417, "no_speech_prob": 9.588237322166737e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.413919413919414 }, { "start": 1071.482, "end": 1072.422, "text": "他就搬走了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1072.422, "end": 1074.082, "text": "我们也看到大陆已经把黄金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1074.082, "end": 1076.222, "text": "都一直在陆续撤离美国", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1076.222, "end": 1077.582, "text": "另外一个部分里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1077.582, "end": 1080.582, "text": "就是不断的在减持美国政府的公债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1080.582, "end": 1084.062, "text": "那你想如果日本政府", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1084.062, "end": 1086.162, "text": "在今年的9月", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1086.162, "end": 1088.462, "text": "就刚刚有民凶所评估的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1088.462, "end": 1090.362, "text": "如果美国政府的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1090.362, "end": 1093.042, "text": "如果日本政府他最后他认为", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1093.042, "end": 1094.802, "text": "风险才太大了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1094.802, "end": 1096.402, "text": "他如果真的升息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1096.402, "end": 1098.042, "text": "他的房地产怎么办", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1098.042, "end": 1101.042, "text": "日本政府的财政的收入", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19733831327255458, "no_speech_prob": 8.721160078828394e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3866171003717471 }, { "start": 1101.042, "end": 1104.182, "text": "跟支出的平衡的问题该怎么办", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1104.182, "end": 1106.442, "text": "那如果他真的到最后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1106.442, "end": 1108.042, "text": "他做了一个决定就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1108.042, "end": 1110.382, "text": "不生息是用卖美国政府的公债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1110.382, "end": 1111.682, "text": "那这个情形像", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1111.682, "end": 1112.782, "text": "对美国政府来讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1112.782, "end": 1115.222, "text": "那就是一个更大的一个隐忧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1115.222, "end": 1117.082, "text": "所以他现在要用政治的压力", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1117.082, "end": 1119.202, "text": "来压日本政府只能自产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1119.202, "end": 1120.322, "text": "不能自救", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1120.322, "end": 1121.222, "text": "可是问题就在", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1121.222, "end": 1122.262, "text": "当我活不下去的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1122.262, "end": 1123.962, "text": "我就不得不自救了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1123.962, "end": 1126.042, "text": "那这个时候对美国来说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1126.042, "end": 1127.062, "text": "都是一个危险", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1127.062, "end": 1129.042, "text": "好 一旦美国政府", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23026639987260866, "no_speech_prob": 1.0739799674586159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722222222222223 }, { "start": 1129.042, "end": 1131.982, "text": "如果真的出现财政破产的情形下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1131.982, "end": 1133.322, "text": "坦白说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1133.322, "end": 1136.142, "text": "这个就是AI泡沫时代的来历", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1136.142, "end": 1138.282, "text": "所以我觉得投资在AI的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1138.282, "end": 1140.222, "text": "美国的投资家来说的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1140.222, "end": 1142.282, "text": "他们的风险也随着美国政府", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1142.282, "end": 1143.462, "text": "很有可能破产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1143.462, "end": 1144.822, "text": "而一直在升高", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1144.822, "end": 1146.222, "text": "其实这个部分里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1146.222, "end": 1148.502, "text": "就会让大家感受到说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1148.502, "end": 1150.902, "text": "如果美国的贝森特", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1150.902, "end": 1152.902, "text": "还是继续这么无能的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1152.902, "end": 1154.402, "text": "那他会给美国", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1154.402, "end": 1156.862, "text": "给全世界带来一场大灾难", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1156.862, "end": 1157.902, "text": "好 所以确实", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17980119984620696, "no_speech_prob": 8.606942415723129e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3097643097643097 }, { "start": 1157.902, "end": 1161.002, "text": "现在美债所受到的承押也表现出了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1161.002, "end": 1164.922, "text": "也显示了现在国际资金对于美债的不信任度", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1164.922, "end": 1165.682, "text": "刚刚特别提到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1165.682, "end": 1169.442, "text": "第一个包括说大家现在开始多国开始卖美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1169.442, "end": 1171.462, "text": "然后改买黄金来做避险", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1171.462, "end": 1176.262, "text": "第二个是美国希望透过押注日本来救救它的美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1176.262, "end": 1178.382, "text": "但是日本会不会想要自救呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1178.382, "end": 1179.782, "text": "答案是非常有可能的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1179.782, "end": 1181.102, "text": "所以我们接下来也会看到说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1181.102, "end": 1183.922, "text": "9月份如果说日本央行一旦升息的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07726762821147969, "no_speech_prob": 2.0413316870193654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3651315789473684 }, { "start": 1183.922, "end": 1185.402, "text": "每日利差的交易", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1185.402, "end": 1188.362, "text": "这个获利就会被终结", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1188.362, "end": 1189.622, "text": "那大家就会从这个", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1189.622, "end": 1191.682, "text": "不管是美国买美国商品的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1191.682, "end": 1192.802, "text": "这些资产里面测出", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1192.802, "end": 1194.122, "text": "不管是美元啊美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1194.122, "end": 1197.582, "text": "或者是高资产的这一些资本的收益", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1197.582, "end": 1199.202, "text": "都会从这当中来抽出", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1199.202, "end": 1201.002, "text": "而且这一笔金额非常的高", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1201.002, "end": 1203.242, "text": "高达了360兆日元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1203.242, "end": 1204.502, "text": "如果抽出了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1204.502, "end": 1207.482, "text": "接下来对于美债还有美元的冲击", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1207.482, "end": 1210.162, "text": "又会再扩大有多严重", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1210.162, "end": 1211.042, "text": "立将军又怎么看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1211.042, "end": 1212.442, "text": "我想说这件事情", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384874904856962, "no_speech_prob": 1.1638942414016196e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3869863013698631 }, { "start": 1212.442, "end": 1215.142, "text": "太多的经济专业的术语", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1215.142, "end": 1218.442, "text": "很多我们一般的民众可能听不懂", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1218.442, "end": 1221.142, "text": "我假设我是渡边太太", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1221.142, "end": 1222.642, "text": "就是日本的散户角度", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1222.642, "end": 1224.802, "text": "来看这次日元的框标", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1224.802, "end": 1228.762, "text": "原来我要花160日元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1228.762, "end": 1230.422, "text": "才可以去买1块钱美金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1230.422, "end": 1232.962, "text": "我现在153块我就可以买到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1232.962, "end": 1235.442, "text": "你认为说是日元现在对美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1235.442, "end": 1237.202, "text": "对这些渡边太太来讲的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1237.202, "end": 1238.302, "text": "是不是甜甜价", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1238.302, "end": 1239.422, "text": "我是甜甜价", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1239.422, "end": 1240.462, "text": "我当然就赶快去买", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1240.462, "end": 1242.342, "text": "因为但是后果是什么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13949255617508977, "no_speech_prob": 9.917784475621527e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3914590747330962 }, { "start": 1242.342, "end": 1244.282, "text": "如果说后续", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1244.282, "end": 1246.442, "text": "如果日元又回贬到160", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1246.442, "end": 1247.842, "text": "那我是不是就赚到了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1247.842, "end": 1249.182, "text": "我赚到汇率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1249.182, "end": 1250.782, "text": "我本来我现在153块", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1250.782, "end": 1251.682, "text": "每日元买的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1251.682, "end": 1253.082, "text": "我到时候160块", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1253.082, "end": 1254.682, "text": "我的美金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1254.682, "end": 1256.162, "text": "这个卖一块钱美金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1256.162, "end": 1258.722, "text": "我就可以获利7块的日元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1258.722, "end": 1259.462, "text": "我就赚到了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1259.462, "end": 1260.622, "text": "这叫汇", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1260.622, "end": 1262.762, "text": "另外利息来讲还没算进去", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1262.762, "end": 1264.362, "text": "现在来讲我换了美金以后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1264.362, "end": 1266.062, "text": "我存在美国的利率里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1266.062, "end": 1268.142, "text": "有3%甚至于4%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1268.142, "end": 1269.602, "text": "我跟日本银行界", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1269.602, "end": 1271.002, "text": "我现在只有一%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2399993804563959, "no_speech_prob": 7.396977128037996e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3714285714285714 }, { "start": 1271.002, "end": 1272.442, "text": "我还有3%的利率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1272.442, "end": 1273.702, "text": "所以对杜边太太", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1273.702, "end": 1275.802, "text": "对这些散户来讲的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1275.802, "end": 1277.302, "text": "他等于赚两样东西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1277.302, "end": 1279.602, "text": "一个是利息 一个是汇率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1279.602, "end": 1280.442, "text": "双赚", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1280.442, "end": 1282.042, "text": "所以说何乐而不为", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1282.042, "end": 1283.942, "text": "除了杜边太太之外", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1283.942, "end": 1285.442, "text": "有一些外国企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1285.442, "end": 1286.542, "text": "国际企业来讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1286.542, "end": 1288.962, "text": "他就不是只是赚这个利差而已", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1288.962, "end": 1291.362, "text": "他会去做更杠杆的操作", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1291.362, "end": 1293.162, "text": "譬如说是我去借了日元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1293.162, "end": 1294.122, "text": "去换了美金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1294.122, "end": 1295.602, "text": "去买美国的股票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1295.602, "end": 1296.862, "text": "NVIDIA股票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1296.862, "end": 1299.002, "text": "去买台积电的股票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1299.002, "end": 1300.102, "text": "但是有一天", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18674189521667153, "no_speech_prob": 7.91891986012816e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3444816053511706 }, { "start": 1300.102, "end": 1303.702, "text": "如果说万一这次日元升值", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1303.702, "end": 1305.602, "text": "日元如果说是后续来讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1305.602, "end": 1307.842, "text": "真的升值超过150块", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1307.842, "end": 1309.442, "text": "这些三国会想说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1309.442, "end": 1310.442, "text": "那这样不行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1310.442, "end": 1311.642, "text": "我已经亏了利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1311.642, "end": 1314.182, "text": "就算我赚到利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1314.182, "end": 1316.382, "text": "我亏了汇率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1316.382, "end": 1318.222, "text": "那这些国际企业来讲说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1318.222, "end": 1320.222, "text": "我虽然说这个股票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1320.222, "end": 1321.662, "text": "我赚到2%的利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1321.662, "end": 1323.022, "text": "可是汇率我亏了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1323.022, "end": 1324.222, "text": "这时候他们会做什么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1324.222, "end": 1326.562, "text": "他宁可赔钱他还把股票卖掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1326.562, "end": 1329.602, "text": "就算是NVIDIA股价再好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2119091545663229, "no_speech_prob": 8.069412325839576e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3419117647058822 }, { "start": 1329.602, "end": 1330.642, "text": "后市再看好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1330.642, "end": 1331.562, "text": "他把它卖掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1331.562, "end": 1333.502, "text": "卖掉以后赶快去还日本的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1333.502, "end": 1336.382, "text": "跟他当初日本人所借的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1336.382, "end": 1337.682, "text": "因为你毕竟是借的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1337.682, "end": 1339.082, "text": "你一定要还利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1339.082, "end": 1341.082, "text": "所以我觉得这种一来一往之间", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1341.082, "end": 1343.082, "text": "对日元来讲这叫放空", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1343.082, "end": 1345.222, "text": "放空对美国影响有多大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1345.222, "end": 1346.982, "text": "我们从贝胜特讲的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1346.982, "end": 1348.862, "text": "除了刚刚赖老师所分析的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1348.862, "end": 1350.622, "text": "日本如果说是继续升息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1350.622, "end": 1351.722, "text": "会影响到他", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1351.722, "end": 1355.262, "text": "如果说日元继续在贬值", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1355.262, "end": 1357.202, "text": "如果在这种状况下去的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1357.202, "end": 1359.222, "text": "对美债他就只有卖美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21183756123418393, "no_speech_prob": 1.1058902057992093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4360655737704917 }, { "start": 1359.222, "end": 1360.222, "text": "来救日元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1360.222, "end": 1361.822, "text": "对美国来讲影响有多大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1361.822, "end": 1362.862, "text": "我们就看到贝森特", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1362.862, "end": 1364.562, "text": "大大大的主动讲什么话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1364.562, "end": 1366.102, "text": "贝森特他前面讲说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1366.102, "end": 1367.822, "text": "他说我自己掌握了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1367.822, "end": 1369.262, "text": "这个不对称的资讯", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1369.262, "end": 1370.522, "text": "你们敢跟我对赌吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1370.522, "end": 1372.562, "text": "而且我现在是庄家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1372.562, "end": 1374.362, "text": "你们这些想要杜边太太", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1374.362, "end": 1374.922, "text": "或者企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1374.922, "end": 1377.262, "text": "想要跟我对赌的就放马过来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1377.262, "end": 1379.362, "text": "但是我觉得贝森特越是讲这种话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1379.362, "end": 1380.722, "text": "越是看出来美国", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1380.722, "end": 1384.042, "text": "在金融方面的焦虑跟不安", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1384.042, "end": 1386.482, "text": "日本现在为了要救日元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1386.482, "end": 1388.082, "text": "是开始抛售了美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528359479445187, "no_speech_prob": 1.629903850774994e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4322580645161291 }, { "start": 1388.082, "end": 1390.922, "text": "所以贝森特急坏了又非常的生气", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1390.922, "end": 1394.042, "text": "他说我才是庄家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1394.042, "end": 1396.282, "text": "好另外升值的部分", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1396.282, "end": 1398.042, "text": "现在反而成了救命符", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1398.042, "end": 1401.902, "text": "360兆逃命股市也崩盘了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1401.902, "end": 1403.302, "text": "而且现在日本要面对的是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1403.302, "end": 1406.222, "text": "里头有25万家的僵尸企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1406.222, "end": 1407.522, "text": "恐怕很快会断气", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1407.522, "end": 1410.962, "text": "会不会重演失落的30年的日本呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1410.962, "end": 1413.182, "text": "今天就这些议题我们会做深度剖析", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1413.182, "end": 1416.262, "text": "好现在看到的是日本的金融炸弹", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1416.262, "end": 1417.862, "text": "随时要再度的引爆", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07179063444684265, "no_speech_prob": 1.3143383950642296e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2649006622516556 }, { "start": 1417.862, "end": 1419.802, "text": "原因就是日本为了要救", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24000420570373535, "no_speech_prob": 1.265084825091689e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.7317073170731707 }, { "start": 1419.802, "end": 1432.802, "text": "原因就是日本為了要救日園,開始在大規模上個月豪雜了15兆日圓,大舉的賣美元買日圓,創下日本史上最大規模的是單月份的外匯干預。", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20367883092207875, "no_speech_prob": 8.691050483455864e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2857142857142858 }, { "start": 1432.802, "end": 1437.562, "text": "所以我们来看到他单月直接卖了796亿美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1437.562, "end": 1441.162, "text": "现在总额是来到了大概是1.2兆美元附近", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1441.162, "end": 1443.202, "text": "而且我们看到包括的外币资产", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1443.202, "end": 1448.042, "text": "也这个水位快速的下降至9900多亿", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1448.042, "end": 1451.262, "text": "单月更是报减了800多亿的美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1451.262, "end": 1452.322, "text": "那有没有效呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1452.322, "end": 1454.582, "text": "确实我们来看到日元的部分有被救起来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1454.582, "end": 1456.682, "text": "7月底的时候毕竟164", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1456.682, "end": 1460.882, "text": "现在一度是回升到153附近来做徘徊了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10096667872534858, "no_speech_prob": 1.405879145738309e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3003533568904593 }, { "start": 1460.882, "end": 1463.322, "text": "确实我们现在看到日本救日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1463.322, "end": 1464.522, "text": "稍微救起来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1464.522, "end": 1466.722, "text": "但救起来的话靠的是卖美债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1466.722, "end": 1468.622, "text": "这时候美国可紧张了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1468.622, "end": 1470.622, "text": "因为日本持有大量的美债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1470.622, "end": 1472.822, "text": "高达了1.1兆美元左右", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1472.822, "end": 1475.302, "text": "如果再继续的卖美债的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1475.302, "end": 1477.662, "text": "那代表美债的价格会下降", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1477.662, "end": 1479.602, "text": "到时候值率狂飙", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1479.602, "end": 1482.102, "text": "那影响的就是包括了美国的企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1482.102, "end": 1485.042, "text": "跟美国政府他们的借贷成本", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1485.042, "end": 1486.302, "text": "会跟着飙升了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1486.302, "end": 1488.122, "text": "这时候最紧张最紧张的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1488.122, "end": 1490.642, "text": "就是美国财长贝森特了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08774573538038466, "no_speech_prob": 1.4940999826240642e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4586206896551723 }, { "start": 1490.642, "end": 1492.202, "text": "贝森特就跟日本讲好了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1492.202, "end": 1493.562, "text": "那我们自己想想办法", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1493.562, "end": 1496.702, "text": "拜托你不要再卖美债到公开市场去了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1496.702, "end": 1499.542, "text": "所以他们最新想好的一个转还的方法", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1499.542, "end": 1502.802, "text": "就是把目光转向联准会最新的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1502.802, "end": 1504.902, "text": "这个FEMA的回购机制", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1504.902, "end": 1507.462, "text": "所以基本上这个回购机制", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1507.462, "end": 1508.742, "text": "就是要求日本说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1508.742, "end": 1509.762, "text": "那不然这样好了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1509.762, "end": 1512.022, "text": "你把你手上的美债抵押给我", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1512.022, "end": 1514.822, "text": "那么我在联准会我借给你美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1514.822, "end": 1516.142, "text": "你就可以去买日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1516.142, "end": 1519.022, "text": "来有助于日本汇率继续升值", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08145560413958078, "no_speech_prob": 1.7906188684579938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046052631578947 }, { "start": 1519.022, "end": 1520.742, "text": "但是现在有一个关键点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1520.742, "end": 1522.622, "text": "每一天在市场上的交易金额", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1522.622, "end": 1524.062, "text": "最多就是600亿美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1524.062, "end": 1526.382, "text": "这个要影响到日本的汇市", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1526.382, "end": 1529.262, "text": "干预程度或许只是杯水车薪", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1529.262, "end": 1531.202, "text": "所以市场就开始质疑了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1531.202, "end": 1532.802, "text": "说美国你根本就没有办法", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1532.802, "end": 1534.562, "text": "真的有能力去救日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1534.562, "end": 1536.982, "text": "贝森特听了这些话更气了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1536.982, "end": 1538.422, "text": "他就是这样讲的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1538.422, "end": 1539.322, "text": "他说不管怎么样", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1539.322, "end": 1541.282, "text": "我现在就是庄家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1541.282, "end": 1543.802, "text": "好这句话就是直接落狠话出来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1543.802, "end": 1544.962, "text": "今天节目一开始", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1544.962, "end": 1546.062, "text": "先请教汉婷怎么看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1546.062, "end": 1547.222, "text": "贝森特这时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09356765962589932, "no_speech_prob": 1.6552781714751497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3636363636363635 }, { "start": 1547.222, "end": 1549.522, "text": "连FEMA的回购机制都出来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1549.522, "end": 1550.222, "text": "还嗆瞎", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1550.222, "end": 1551.782, "text": "我就是庄家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1551.782, "end": 1553.202, "text": "真的是有把握吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1553.202, "end": 1555.562, "text": "还是在吹哨壮胆呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1555.562, "end": 1556.762, "text": "那日元会不会", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1556.762, "end": 1558.122, "text": "如果再度的失守的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1558.122, "end": 1560.162, "text": "接下来还是得做一样的方法吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1560.162, "end": 1561.422, "text": "靠卖美债吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1561.422, "end": 1562.222, "text": "汉婷怎么看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1562.222, "end": 1564.702, "text": "现在因为日元贬太多", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1564.702, "end": 1567.442, "text": "那日本财务省就要买日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1567.442, "end": 1569.922, "text": "卖美元把汇率拉回来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1569.922, "end": 1571.602, "text": "但是日本要卖美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1571.602, "end": 1573.182, "text": "首先要有美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1573.182, "end": 1574.622, "text": "可是日本的财务", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1574.622, "end": 1576.262, "text": "大部分是美国国债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12317978708367598, "no_speech_prob": 1.507364025266078e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867 }, { "start": 1576.262, "end": 1578.642, "text": "如果直接拿到市场上去拍卖", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1578.642, "end": 1581.182, "text": "美国国债的价格跌个稀巴烂", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1581.182, "end": 1582.482, "text": "美国会不高兴", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1582.482, "end": 1584.722, "text": "所以为了解决这个尴尬", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1584.722, "end": 1586.762, "text": "FEMA机制就派上用场了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1586.762, "end": 1590.962, "text": "FEMA就像美国联准会开的一家VIP当铺", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1590.962, "end": 1593.482, "text": "日本不用把美债卖掉", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1593.482, "end": 1596.902, "text": "只是拿去当铺抵押借出现金", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1596.902, "end": 1599.782, "text": "那因为美债没有真的流到市面上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1599.782, "end": 1602.222, "text": "所以不会砸坏美债的行情", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1602.222, "end": 1604.682, "text": "那这笔钱的限期又很短", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749796475369506, "no_speech_prob": 1.318154613239031e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113 }, { "start": 1604.682, "end": 1606.242, "text": "日本只要付点利息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1606.242, "end": 1608.502, "text": "之后还可以把美债赎回来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1608.502, "end": 1610.782, "text": "所以他又能够拿到美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1610.782, "end": 1611.802, "text": "去卖了美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1611.802, "end": 1612.742, "text": "然后去买日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1612.742, "end": 1613.862, "text": "让日元升值", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1613.862, "end": 1615.922, "text": "也不会把美债的价格砸烂", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1615.922, "end": 1617.342, "text": "可是呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1617.342, "end": 1619.822, "text": "市场上在看空美元的人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1619.822, "end": 1620.882, "text": "仍然很多", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1620.882, "end": 1623.962, "text": "所以贝森特要亲自出来讲话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1623.962, "end": 1625.222, "text": "说我是庄家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1625.222, "end": 1626.442, "text": "要对赌请便", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1626.442, "end": 1628.542, "text": "为什么他要讲这个话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1628.542, "end": 1629.202, "text": "第一个", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1629.202, "end": 1632.262, "text": "他要直接对全球对冲基金", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1632.262, "end": 1634.022, "text": "心理战威慑", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0951565730420849, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441244215399827e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818 }, { "start": 1634.022, "end": 1635.702, "text": "华尔街的空投", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1635.702, "end": 1637.562, "text": "最喜欢盯着弱者咬", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1637.562, "end": 1639.922, "text": "先前日元一路狂扁", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1639.922, "end": 1643.882, "text": "投机客每天去借超低利息的日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1643.882, "end": 1646.582, "text": "转去买高利息的美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1646.582, "end": 1647.702, "text": "去做套利", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1647.702, "end": 1649.782, "text": "所以贝森特跳出来呛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1649.782, "end": 1650.602, "text": "我是庄家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1650.602, "end": 1652.822, "text": "就告诉所有的空投", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1652.822, "end": 1654.802, "text": "日本不是一个人在战斗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1654.802, "end": 1657.642, "text": "我美国爸爸背后在操盘", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1657.642, "end": 1659.702, "text": "游戏规则是我定的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1659.702, "end": 1661.302, "text": "你们如果继续做空日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1661.302, "end": 1662.582, "text": "我就让你们断头", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1662.582, "end": 1663.542, "text": "而第二", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08897969107957757, "no_speech_prob": 1.2849896494082635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159851301115242 }, { "start": 1663.542, "end": 1666.342, "text": "这也是在帮日本争取时间", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1666.342, "end": 1668.722, "text": "8月日本为了要救汇率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1668.722, "end": 1671.822, "text": "单月就砸了986亿元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1671.822, "end": 1673.922, "text": "创下历史记录", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1673.922, "end": 1675.542, "text": "市场都心知肚明", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1675.542, "end": 1677.142, "text": "你又砸了很多钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1677.142, "end": 1679.022, "text": "甚至外国证券都砸进去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1679.022, "end": 1681.342, "text": "一大部分就是美国的国债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1681.342, "end": 1684.062, "text": "如果日本每个月都被迫", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1684.062, "end": 1686.262, "text": "倒卖几千亿的美债自救", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1686.262, "end": 1687.962, "text": "美债市场就崩盘了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1687.962, "end": 1690.402, "text": "美债美国自己的各种利率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1690.402, "end": 1691.402, "text": "就会飙上天", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09143523805460353, "no_speech_prob": 1.0800299890534326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2927756653992395 }, { "start": 1691.402, "end": 1694.082, "text": "所以贝森特也必须亲自出来说明", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1694.082, "end": 1696.522, "text": "大家担心的美债狂蝶这件事情", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1696.522, "end": 1697.922, "text": "不会发生", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1697.922, "end": 1698.502, "text": "再来第三", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1698.502, "end": 1701.402, "text": "他也要对外展现自己的掌控力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1701.402, "end": 1703.282, "text": "替执政团队立威", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1703.282, "end": 1706.822, "text": "作为美方核心的理财金融操盘手", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1706.822, "end": 1708.162, "text": "他要对市场展示", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1708.162, "end": 1709.622, "text": "我们美国的财政部", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1709.622, "end": 1710.762, "text": "美国的联准会", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1710.762, "end": 1712.922, "text": "跟日本央行都搞得非常清楚", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1712.922, "end": 1714.722, "text": "没有什么不对称的资讯", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1714.722, "end": 1716.422, "text": "我们什么时候要进场干预", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1716.422, "end": 1717.742, "text": "什么时候要砸多少钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1717.742, "end": 1719.622, "text": "日本央行哪一天要做什么事", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08664164700350918, "no_speech_prob": 1.4668948347673627e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3801916932907348 }, { "start": 1719.622, "end": 1721.542, "text": "我们都有剧本了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1721.542, "end": 1723.262, "text": "所以你们外面不要乱搞", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1723.262, "end": 1724.942, "text": "那他到底有什么武器", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1724.942, "end": 1726.982, "text": "其实就是美日联手进场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1726.982, "end": 1729.442, "text": "过去在处理日元的事情", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1729.442, "end": 1731.262, "text": "都是日本单打独斗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1731.262, "end": 1733.402, "text": "那华尔街的这些金融巨厄", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1733.402, "end": 1735.262, "text": "或者是世界上的空头", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1735.262, "end": 1735.922, "text": "根本都不怕", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1735.922, "end": 1737.822, "text": "那等到美国亲自下场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1737.822, "end": 1739.242, "text": "那当然就不一样", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1739.242, "end": 1741.142, "text": "因为美国背后力量比较大", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1741.142, "end": 1743.942, "text": "而且是有FEMA的抵押机制", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1743.942, "end": 1745.522, "text": "再加上美国自己", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1745.522, "end": 1747.662, "text": "长期的回购 长债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10302286972234279, "no_speech_prob": 1.441605081836661e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2604501607717042 }, { "start": 1747.662, "end": 1750.642, "text": "自然就能够阻止日本抛售美债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1750.642, "end": 1751.902, "text": "那美国自己", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1751.902, "end": 1754.282, "text": "他也能够去做一些宏观的调控", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1754.282, "end": 1757.062, "text": "但是这些套路真的很稳吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1757.062, "end": 1758.002, "text": "不一定 为啥", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1758.002, "end": 1760.042, "text": "因为FEMA它只是短期给美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1760.042, "end": 1762.602, "text": "它也不会让日元自动的升值", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1762.602, "end": 1764.842, "text": "如果未来美国又有了通膨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1764.842, "end": 1766.282, "text": "联准会不会降息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1766.282, "end": 1767.382, "text": "美元仍然很强", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1767.382, "end": 1769.402, "text": "那么日元最后还是会被压", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1769.402, "end": 1770.862, "text": "好 所以我们现在看到", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1770.862, "end": 1773.042, "text": "是日本的动作已经开始出手", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1773.042, "end": 1774.202, "text": "要去救日元了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1774.202, "end": 1777.022, "text": "但是确实现在日本一边是救日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08189397602412053, "no_speech_prob": 1.4040243793977947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611111111111112 }, { "start": 1777.022, "end": 1778.682, "text": "一边他还要面对的就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1778.682, "end": 1781.842, "text": "日本自己国内非常严重的通膨问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1781.842, "end": 1785.442, "text": "所以现在针对于日本9月份升息的可能性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1785.442, "end": 1787.822, "text": "已经高达至少7成8成以上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1787.822, "end": 1790.142, "text": "都认为日本在9月份一定会升息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1790.142, "end": 1792.302, "text": "那接下来我们要来看几个剧本", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1792.302, "end": 1793.902, "text": "就是日本一旦升息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1793.902, "end": 1796.882, "text": "接下来对于日本经济有哪几个重大的影响", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1796.882, "end": 1798.642, "text": "现在列出来一共是三大点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1798.642, "end": 1800.462, "text": "第一个会影响到的就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1800.462, "end": 1803.762, "text": "日元套利的空间会立刻消失", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1803.762, "end": 1806.462, "text": "那恐怕的是资金撤离全球股市震荡", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06829641106423368, "no_speech_prob": 1.2728273296458426e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4420062695924765 }, { "start": 1806.462, "end": 1808.722, "text": "第二个就是对于日本企业获利的影响", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1808.722, "end": 1810.322, "text": "跟第三个日本债券的影响", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1810.322, "end": 1812.062, "text": "我们先来看到具体第一个", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1812.062, "end": 1814.382, "text": "也就是说因为日本跟美国", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1814.382, "end": 1817.842, "text": "现在存在很大的日元套利的一个机会", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1817.842, "end": 1820.042, "text": "所以现在的这个规模", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1820.042, "end": 1822.682, "text": "就是跨境玩这个利差交易的规模", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1822.682, "end": 1824.562, "text": "已经达到了360兆日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1824.562, "end": 1827.602, "text": "九和新台币2.35兆美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1827.602, "end": 1830.522, "text": "要知道如果这个套利的机会", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1830.522, "end": 1832.922, "text": "这样子的一个交易方式", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1832.922, "end": 1833.922, "text": "如果未来没有了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1833.922, "end": 1835.062, "text": "就是随着日本升息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1835.062, "end": 1835.722, "text": "没有的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788739678318515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1749928287285716e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4882154882154883 }, { "start": 1835.722, "end": 1838.042, "text": "接下来国际资金就可能会撤出日本", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1838.042, "end": 1841.502, "text": "到时候就会引发国际的股市的动荡", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1841.502, "end": 1843.802, "text": "也就是回复到当年2024年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1843.802, "end": 1846.062, "text": "曾经发生过的一次全球股市动荡", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1846.062, "end": 1848.422, "text": "就是类似的事情所造成的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1848.422, "end": 1851.222, "text": "第二个受害的就是日本的企业的出口获利", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1851.222, "end": 1852.422, "text": "随着日元升值", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1852.422, "end": 1853.782, "text": "丰田就估算了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1853.782, "end": 1857.182, "text": "如果汇率一旦来到153附近的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1857.182, "end": 1860.522, "text": "这个汇差就可能导致数千亿日元获利", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1860.522, "end": 1861.822, "text": "立刻就消失", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1861.822, "end": 1864.382, "text": "第三个事情就是日本的债势了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07136302287352152, "no_speech_prob": 1.132278125426378e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3863636363636365 }, { "start": 1864.382, "end": 1865.742, "text": "10年期的公債殖利率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1865.742, "end": 1867.462, "text": "9月初一度升破3%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1867.462, "end": 1870.102, "text": "已经创下了30年的新高了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1870.102, "end": 1872.082, "text": "接下来还要再升职吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1872.082, "end": 1873.762, "text": "这些都是非常大的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1873.762, "end": 1874.562, "text": "干哥怎么看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1874.562, "end": 1875.562, "text": "开什么玩笑", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1875.562, "end": 1878.002, "text": "你怎么可以让我们日元升职到那个地步", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1878.002, "end": 1878.402, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1878.402, "end": 1881.902, "text": "日本有多少人在玩日元套利亚", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1881.902, "end": 1883.962, "text": "几百万人在玩", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1883.962, "end": 1886.522, "text": "而且你绝对不相信", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1886.522, "end": 1887.882, "text": "很多散户在玩", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1887.882, "end": 1888.322, "text": "为什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1888.322, "end": 1889.122, "text": "很简单", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1889.122, "end": 1891.642, "text": "就是日元它一向都是很低的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1891.642, "end": 1892.022, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1892.022, "end": 1893.482, "text": "它就在很低的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13723452018968987, "no_speech_prob": 1.499747201427759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3733333333333333 }, { "start": 1893.482, "end": 1896.002, "text": "那这些日本的散户", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788873831431071, "no_speech_prob": 8.636472613454682e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0673076923076923 }, { "start": 1896.002, "end": 1897.982, "text": "他们就在你逢低的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788873831431071, "no_speech_prob": 8.636472613454682e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0673076923076923 }, { "start": 1897.982, "end": 1898.722, "text": "他就买进", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788873831431071, "no_speech_prob": 8.636472613454682e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0673076923076923 }, { "start": 1898.722, "end": 1900.902, "text": "那他就一直都很低", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788873831431071, "no_speech_prob": 8.636472613454682e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0673076923076923 }, { "start": 1900.902, "end": 1901.702, "text": "为什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788873831431071, "no_speech_prob": 8.636472613454682e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0673076923076923 }, { "start": 1901.702, "end": 1902.882, "text": "他就去买", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10788873831431071, "no_speech_prob": 8.636472613454682e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0673076923076923 }, { "start": 1915.928, "end": 1919.068, "text": "日本央行根本不敢好吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1919.068, "end": 1921.388, "text": "他们一向对于", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1921.388, "end": 1924.028, "text": "就是说日本的一般的老百姓", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1924.028, "end": 1925.268, "text": "或是银行的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1925.268, "end": 1927.708, "text": "都不敢升这样的利息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1927.708, "end": 1929.728, "text": "所以说你现在突然升两码", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1929.728, "end": 1931.488, "text": "那我看日本就不要玩了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1931.488, "end": 1934.168, "text": "360兆日元的市场", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1934.168, "end": 1936.568, "text": "也许我们对日元比较没有概念", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1936.568, "end": 1939.648, "text": "那直接换算2.35兆美元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1939.648, "end": 1943.488, "text": "那有多少家庭会陷入其中", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1943.488, "end": 1945.168, "text": "还有股市怎么办", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018685941342954, "no_speech_prob": 9.711620396757326e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361 }, { "start": 1945.168, "end": 1946.808, "text": "你有沒有想過這個問題", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1946.808, "end": 1949.208, "text": "所以然後還更好笑", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1949.208, "end": 1950.708, "text": "豐田 豐田", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1950.708, "end": 1952.688, "text": "豐田是不用講", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1952.688, "end": 1953.728, "text": "全球第一品牌", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1953.728, "end": 1954.788, "text": "豐田說", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1954.788, "end": 1956.908, "text": "我們已經估計到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1956.908, "end": 1959.088, "text": "每升值一日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1959.088, "end": 1962.028, "text": "那我們從海外賺的錢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1962.028, "end": 1963.268, "text": "匯回來了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1963.268, "end": 1965.888, "text": "直接損失500億日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1965.888, "end": 1967.148, "text": "差這麼多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1967.148, "end": 1970.948, "text": "那我們整年季度的財報", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1970.948, "end": 1971.708, "text": "都不用寫了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1971.708, "end": 1972.228, "text": "對不對", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1972.228, "end": 1973.568, "text": "還得了嗎", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1973.568, "end": 1974.868, "text": "所以你升息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20283561119666466, "no_speech_prob": 1.0482382323262485e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633744855967077 }, { "start": 1974.868, "end": 1977.948, "text": "你光升息一日元就这样了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1977.948, "end": 1980.028, "text": "所以如果九月升息一马", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1980.028, "end": 1983.308, "text": "他说日本央行应该升息两马", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1983.308, "end": 1985.148, "text": "他说光升息一马", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1985.148, "end": 1986.968, "text": "日本就会经济动荡了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1986.968, "end": 1987.388, "text": "为什么", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1987.388, "end": 1988.888, "text": "因为长期以来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1988.888, "end": 1991.588, "text": "就是日本经济的泡沫", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1991.588, "end": 1993.228, "text": "它是其来有致的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1993.228, "end": 1994.748, "text": "他们讲了一个笑话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1994.748, "end": 1996.908, "text": "1989年37年前", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1996.908, "end": 1998.588, "text": "他说日本的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1998.588, "end": 2001.248, "text": "就是即将达到泡沫最高点的时候", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 2001.248, "end": 2002.648, "text": "外面市场就在讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 2002.648, "end": 2004.768, "text": "在东京的那个黄居", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17278976698179502, "no_speech_prob": 1.3119037974018699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 2004.768, "end": 2006.788, "text": "皇帝住的那个皇居", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2006.788, "end": 2009.408, "text": "那个房地产会超过", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2009.408, "end": 2012.228, "text": "加州整个房地产加起来的总格", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2012.228, "end": 2013.688, "text": "因为泡沫到这种地步", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2013.688, "end": 2015.388, "text": "结果泡沫终于吹破了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2015.388, "end": 2016.168, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2016.168, "end": 2018.828, "text": "就那个时候的谣言", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2018.828, "end": 2020.628, "text": "会让大家恐慌到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2020.628, "end": 2022.508, "text": "你心里害怕的事情", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2022.508, "end": 2023.948, "text": "全部都成真的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2023.948, "end": 2025.968, "text": "所以还没有讲到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2025.968, "end": 2026.608, "text": "最后讲到什么", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2026.608, "end": 2026.988, "text": "在市", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2026.988, "end": 2028.508, "text": "十年级公债利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2028.508, "end": 2030.348, "text": "那殖利率一度升", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2030.348, "end": 2031.688, "text": "标破3%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2031.688, "end": 2033.228, "text": "那日本的银行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2033.228, "end": 2034.468, "text": "保险公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942807284268466, "no_speech_prob": 1.3244566034187333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2882562277580072 }, { "start": 2034.468, "end": 2037.668, "text": "他们都持有大量的日本国债", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2037.668, "end": 2038.228, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2038.228, "end": 2040.368, "text": "那损失的风险就更高", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2040.368, "end": 2043.388, "text": "我觉得高市长没有不敢这样做", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2043.388, "end": 2045.628, "text": "你真的要升息的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2045.628, "end": 2047.208, "text": "你暂时是稳住了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2047.208, "end": 2048.388, "text": "可是我可以跟你讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2048.388, "end": 2051.808, "text": "日元只要再升破150", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2051.808, "end": 2053.328, "text": "他现在说153", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2053.328, "end": 2054.668, "text": "已经到顶了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2054.668, "end": 2055.308, "text": "不要再升了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2055.308, "end": 2056.708, "text": "再升下去的话完蛋了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2056.708, "end": 2057.628, "text": "他说没有", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2057.628, "end": 2061.548, "text": "现在投资人他准备升破140", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2061.548, "end": 2062.588, "text": "下大柱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2062.588, "end": 2063.988, "text": "然后日本的散户", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16380823575533354, "no_speech_prob": 1.1552043176210613e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.304832713754647 }, { "start": 2063.988, "end": 2065.188, "text": "反过头来做", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2065.188, "end": 2065.928, "text": "我跟你讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2065.928, "end": 2068.688, "text": "这个双方之间的冲撞", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2068.688, "end": 2070.448, "text": "有戏可看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2070.448, "end": 2071.908, "text": "可是我可以告诉你", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2071.908, "end": 2073.328, "text": "对日本的经济", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2073.328, "end": 2075.668, "text": "会有更大更强烈的影响", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2075.668, "end": 2077.848, "text": "到时候一定是失业的人更多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2077.848, "end": 2079.468, "text": "经济指数更难看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2079.468, "end": 2080.848, "text": "好 那另外一方面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2080.848, "end": 2082.048, "text": "因为刚刚也帮我们提到了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2082.048, "end": 2083.408, "text": "当时在1989年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2083.408, "end": 2084.668, "text": "这个时候有一个大泡沫", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2084.668, "end": 2085.928, "text": "其实大泡沫当时的背景", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2085.928, "end": 2088.008, "text": "就是因为日本他当时升息了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2088.008, "end": 2090.568, "text": "那升息之后就接连爆出了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2090.568, "end": 2091.748, "text": "各种银行的坏账", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2091.748, "end": 2092.748, "text": "那也就引发了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09232566369831233, "no_speech_prob": 1.2902429992467379e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3647798742138364 }, { "start": 2092.748, "end": 2094.808, "text": "后续我们看到这过去几十年来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2094.808, "end": 2096.148, "text": "日本的失落现象", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2096.148, "end": 2098.468, "text": "那这一次现在来到了现在", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2098.468, "end": 2101.348, "text": "路透社最新报道是日本的僵尸企业", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2101.348, "end": 2102.888, "text": "大概达到了25万家", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2102.888, "end": 2104.208, "text": "他们都是靠低率的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2104.208, "end": 2105.428, "text": "如果一旦升息了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2105.428, "end": 2107.148, "text": "接下来政府又不救他们的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2107.148, "end": 2109.148, "text": "是否引爆一系列的危机", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2109.148, "end": 2111.688, "text": "也就是过去30年的失落日本", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2111.688, "end": 2114.648, "text": "是否再次在今天重新上演", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2114.648, "end": 2115.868, "text": "那运老师又怎么看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2115.868, "end": 2119.328, "text": "日元跟美元之间的套利现象", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2119.328, "end": 2121.148, "text": "我稍微解释一下什么叫套利", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10513421713587749, "no_speech_prob": 1.560496350194729e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3753943217665616 }, { "start": 2121.148, "end": 2124.248, "text": "就是从日元到日本银行是零利息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2124.248, "end": 2126.028, "text": "甚至还有一段时间是负利息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2126.028, "end": 2128.468, "text": "然后美国的利息节节升高", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2128.468, "end": 2129.608, "text": "现在到达5%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2129.608, "end": 2131.248, "text": "至少也有4.5%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2131.248, "end": 2132.628, "text": "所以说贝尊德这边吹牛", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2132.628, "end": 2134.068, "text": "我是market maker", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2134.068, "end": 2135.048, "text": "他做梦", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2135.048, "end": 2135.708, "text": "我跟你讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2135.708, "end": 2137.608, "text": "你这个日本和美国的经济", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2137.608, "end": 2138.868, "text": "都是自由经济", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2138.868, "end": 2140.408, "text": "这个如果说是你", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2140.408, "end": 2141.488, "text": "我说句良心话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2141.488, "end": 2143.528, "text": "你在大陆的这种经济政策的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2143.528, "end": 2144.908, "text": "有market maker我相信", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2144.908, "end": 2146.288, "text": "那大陆的人民银行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2146.288, "end": 2147.548, "text": "他绝对是market maker", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2147.548, "end": 2148.628, "text": "因为他本身来讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12130609070513881, "no_speech_prob": 1.3975856930081854e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3416149068322982 }, { "start": 2148.628, "end": 2151.248, "text": "就是没有这个外汇这样进来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2151.248, "end": 2152.188, "text": "你现在炒会", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2152.188, "end": 2153.508, "text": "我先跟大家解释一下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2153.508, "end": 2156.268, "text": "就是说这个套利已经到什么现象", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2156.268, "end": 2157.768, "text": "就是有一个名词", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2157.768, "end": 2159.148, "text": "叫做这个", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2159.148, "end": 2163.108, "text": "叫做渡边夫人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2163.108, "end": 2165.668, "text": "就是说日本的很多的赚的钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2165.668, "end": 2166.448, "text": "都管钱的人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2166.448, "end": 2167.848, "text": "日本女人很多人不上班", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2167.848, "end": 2168.588, "text": "在家管钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2168.588, "end": 2170.128, "text": "这些管钱人话一听", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2170.128, "end": 2170.768, "text": "不得了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2170.768, "end": 2173.408, "text": "这个你只要从银行中借书钱来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2173.408, "end": 2174.888, "text": "送到美国银行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2174.888, "end": 2176.928, "text": "你出门都不用打个电话就换", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1475346027276455, "no_speech_prob": 1.489110917907155e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4028776978417266 }, { "start": 2176.928, "end": 2178.688, "text": "我现在借这个一日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2178.688, "end": 2179.148, "text": "然后全部", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2179.148, "end": 2180.368, "text": "马上就买成美元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2180.368, "end": 2181.868, "text": "然后你等着时间的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2181.868, "end": 2182.788, "text": "就光吃利息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2182.788, "end": 2183.628, "text": "你要了解", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2183.628, "end": 2184.548, "text": "做生意的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2184.548, "end": 2186.268, "text": "固定白赚5%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2186.268, "end": 2187.128, "text": "是很不简单的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2187.128, "end": 2187.828, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2187.828, "end": 2189.368, "text": "你不赔就好了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2189.368, "end": 2191.728, "text": "所以说产生这种套利的现象", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2191.728, "end": 2192.908, "text": "这现象搞了多久", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2192.908, "end": 2193.808, "text": "一直到最后", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2193.808, "end": 2194.568, "text": "大家才发觉", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2194.568, "end": 2196.068, "text": "原来日本跟美国之间的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2196.068, "end": 2197.408, "text": "银行之间产生的感觉", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2197.408, "end": 2198.768, "text": "我刚刚还跟我们干哥", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2198.768, "end": 2199.328, "text": "在聊了一下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2199.328, "end": 2200.548, "text": "在计算的过程当中", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2200.548, "end": 2201.848, "text": "就不懂这个道理的人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2201.848, "end": 2203.088, "text": "就像我们自己个傻子", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2203.088, "end": 2203.728, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2203.728, "end": 2204.568, "text": "大部分人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2204.568, "end": 2206.008, "text": "哪个人不懂这个道理呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2206.008, "end": 2206.428, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1272074650151069, "no_speech_prob": 2.2352918127577226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4382022471910112 }, { "start": 2206.428, "end": 2207.068, "text": "你拿到日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2207.068, "end": 2208.368, "text": "借日元出来也不用钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2208.368, "end": 2209.288, "text": "然后一换", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2209.288, "end": 2210.588, "text": "巴菲特都在搞这一套", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2210.588, "end": 2211.268, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2211.268, "end": 2212.928, "text": "所以你在这个长期下来的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2212.928, "end": 2214.508, "text": "那日本为什么出现这种问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2214.508, "end": 2215.388, "text": "你刚刚讲到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2215.388, "end": 2217.228, "text": "为什么有25万家僵尸企业", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2217.228, "end": 2218.808, "text": "我告诉你一个非常简单的问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2218.808, "end": 2220.328, "text": "因为日本有这种问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2220.328, "end": 2221.848, "text": "日本不是没有财经人才", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2221.848, "end": 2223.488, "text": "而是日本这个国家", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2223.488, "end": 2225.108, "text": "长期对自己老百姓非常好", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2225.108, "end": 2226.908, "text": "日本对老百姓好的方式的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2226.908, "end": 2228.188, "text": "就是说你会看到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2228.188, "end": 2229.908, "text": "日本人最害怕失业", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2229.908, "end": 2231.648, "text": "让这些企业不要失业", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2231.648, "end": 2232.488, "text": "不要失业情况下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2232.488, "end": 2233.688, "text": "薪水要能够发得出来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2233.688, "end": 2234.588, "text": "就是不失业", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2234.588, "end": 2236.068, "text": "不失业发得出来的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10216100450972436, "no_speech_prob": 2.63326929705876e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5774647887323943 }, { "start": 2236.068, "end": 2238.048, "text": "如果说老板本身的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2238.048, "end": 2239.888, "text": "这个借这个钱的成本", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2239.888, "end": 2240.848, "text": "很低很低", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2240.848, "end": 2242.508, "text": "甚至是富的情况下来讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2242.508, "end": 2243.548, "text": "那对他来讲的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2243.548, "end": 2245.668, "text": "这个企业就可以维持生存", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2245.668, "end": 2246.328, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2246.328, "end": 2248.108, "text": "那现在这个套利的现象", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2248.108, "end": 2248.868, "text": "搞得这么严重", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2248.868, "end": 2250.148, "text": "我觉得他日本是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2250.148, "end": 2251.348, "text": "接着三方面的问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2251.348, "end": 2253.068, "text": "首先第一个问题就是说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2253.068, "end": 2254.308, "text": "是这个套利现象很严重", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2254.308, "end": 2255.588, "text": "然后第二个问题的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2255.588, "end": 2257.288, "text": "就是日本本身对老百姓", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2257.288, "end": 2258.508, "text": "好到简直没有立场", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2258.508, "end": 2259.668, "text": "所以说日本本身", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2259.668, "end": 2261.068, "text": "为什么自己发行的内战", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2261.068, "end": 2264.508, "text": "是他们的GDP的百分之二百六", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11443966085260565, "no_speech_prob": 1.222022830149605e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4676923076923076 }, { "start": 2264.508, "end": 2266.348, "text": "2.6倍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2266.348, "end": 2268.008, "text": "那这根本没办法升息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2268.008, "end": 2269.868, "text": "一升息的话要还的债非常多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2269.868, "end": 2270.868, "text": "然后第三点的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2270.868, "end": 2272.848, "text": "美国真的是提了油来揪火", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2272.848, "end": 2274.408, "text": "因为美国本身来讲的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2274.408, "end": 2275.248, "text": "只有一个要求", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2275.248, "end": 2276.928, "text": "你绝对不可以给我卖美债", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2276.928, "end": 2278.408, "text": "就像刚刚和你讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2278.408, "end": 2279.508, "text": "你除了这一点以外", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2279.508, "end": 2280.288, "text": "其他随便你搞", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2280.288, "end": 2281.228, "text": "那日本讲说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2281.228, "end": 2282.768, "text": "我根本就是货币在贬值", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2282.768, "end": 2283.668, "text": "到根本就情况", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2283.668, "end": 2284.648, "text": "你要知道", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2284.648, "end": 2287.008, "text": "现在整个机器当中生活垫底的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2287.008, "end": 2288.248, "text": "日本现在的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2288.248, "end": 2289.848, "text": "他们自己的平均收入", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2289.848, "end": 2291.988, "text": "只有33843块美元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2291.988, "end": 2293.668, "text": "这是里面最低的国家", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11924414763579498, "no_speech_prob": 1.7766824469966913e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375 }, { "start": 2293.668, "end": 2294.908, "text": "你要了解", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2294.908, "end": 2296.568, "text": "相对于这种情况来讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2296.568, "end": 2298.348, "text": "美国的话都高达8万多美元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2298.348, "end": 2299.968, "text": "所以你在这种情况之下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2299.968, "end": 2300.728, "text": "这个汇率当中", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2300.728, "end": 2302.128, "text": "使得日本的生活当中", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2302.128, "end": 2303.548, "text": "面对了非常大的压力", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2303.548, "end": 2304.948, "text": "现在是加息也不是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2304.948, "end": 2307.768, "text": "那么这个减息也不可能", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2307.768, "end": 2309.388, "text": "所以说出现了这种结果", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2309.388, "end": 2310.928, "text": "那这个情况下来讲的话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2310.928, "end": 2313.248, "text": "没有人知道日本的经济要怎么救", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2313.248, "end": 2314.528, "text": "日本自己都不知道", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2314.528, "end": 2316.368, "text": "今天有关于这一场", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2316.368, "end": 2320.688, "text": "美日之间要救日元的这一场大战", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2320.688, "end": 2321.768, "text": "我们持续来看到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10406015481159187, "no_speech_prob": 1.3822453598377749e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4635761589403973 }, { "start": 2321.768, "end": 2325.088, "text": "日本是不是又被逼到墙角了呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2325.088, "end": 2326.608, "text": "我们稍微回顾一下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2326.608, "end": 2327.468, "text": "一个月前", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2327.468, "end": 2330.928, "text": "当时美国跟日本一起来集体要救日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2330.928, "end": 2333.528, "text": "上演了一场罕见的日元保卫战", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2333.528, "end": 2337.468, "text": "当时日本是砸下了15兆日元要来救会", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2337.468, "end": 2341.188, "text": "创下了一个月内的最新记录", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2341.188, "end": 2342.348, "text": "才一个月的时间", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2342.348, "end": 2343.968, "text": "但是我们要来看到的是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2343.968, "end": 2345.388, "text": "不只是日本救", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2345.388, "end": 2347.268, "text": "当时美国也要救日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2347.268, "end": 2349.228, "text": "所以他就跟着跟进", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2349.228, "end": 2351.188, "text": "卖了日元来买日元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08102191121954667, "no_speech_prob": 1.155556726695206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479087452471483 }, { "start": 2351.188, "end": 2352.608, "text": "结果发生了什么事", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2352.608, "end": 2353.808, "text": "才一个月的时间", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2353.808, "end": 2357.708, "text": "日元再度的跌破了160关卡了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2357.708, "end": 2360.808, "text": "眼看这样子旧日元还是没有效的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2360.808, "end": 2362.608, "text": "最新消息有没有来看到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2362.608, "end": 2365.528, "text": "美国财长贝森特这一次不演了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2365.528, "end": 2368.188, "text": "干脆就直接跟日本放话了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2368.188, "end": 2371.188, "text": "说在G团体上面点名日本", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2371.188, "end": 2372.588, "text": "你赶快升息吧", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2372.588, "end": 2374.148, "text": "现在市场也压住说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2374.148, "end": 2376.128, "text": "在贝森特讲了这些话之后", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2376.128, "end": 2377.608, "text": "日盈下一次的升息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2377.608, "end": 2380.388, "text": "几率高达超过了七成的几率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10763974459666126, "no_speech_prob": 1.2903568838429358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3033333333333332 }, { "start": 2380.388, "end": 2383.328, "text": "重点是日本央行的利益", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3339731012071882, "no_speech_prob": 2.58516420076349e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.7317073170731707 }, { "start": 2383.328, "end": 2388.408, "text": "重點是,日本央行的利率政策竟然是輪到美國來指指點點,美國來指導。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2170334377804318, "no_speech_prob": 7.340095545260716e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.328719723183391 }, { "start": 2388.408, "end": 2392.328, "text": "現在大家也在說,是連高斯早苗自己都不敢去指導,", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2170334377804318, "no_speech_prob": 7.340095545260716e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.328719723183391 }, { "start": 2392.328, "end": 2395.728, "text": "要求自己的央行總裁直填河南升息了。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2170334377804318, "no_speech_prob": 7.340095545260716e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.328719723183391 }, { "start": 2395.728, "end": 2396.908, "text": "那美国凭什么呢?", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2397.128, "end": 2397.828, "text": "好,我们又来看到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2397.828, "end": 2399.628, "text": "那美国担心的点是什么呢?", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2399.848, "end": 2401.708, "text": "就是因为日本是美国", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2401.708, "end": 2403.988, "text": "非常重要的美债持有国", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2403.988, "end": 2406.408, "text": "现在持有的规模", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2406.408, "end": 2409.228, "text": "大概是达到了1.1兆美元的规模", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2409.228, "end": 2410.608, "text": "要就日元的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2410.608, "end": 2412.988, "text": "可能他就会透过抛售美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2412.988, "end": 2416.028, "text": "买进日元来支撑他的汇率", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2416.028, "end": 2418.848, "text": "但是这也是美国同时最害怕的事情", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2418.848, "end": 2420.608, "text": "因为美国自己的国债问题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2420.608, "end": 2421.668, "text": "这么的严重啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2421.668, "end": 2423.268, "text": "现在公债已经超过了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2423.268, "end": 2424.988, "text": "40兆美元的大关", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11997833706083752, "no_speech_prob": 1.9654314634132142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4256756756756757 }, { "start": 2424.988, "end": 2426.788, "text": "十年期的公债殖利率", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2426.788, "end": 2427.888, "text": "更是冲过了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2427.888, "end": 2429.228, "text": "4.78%", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2429.228, "end": 2430.748, "text": "已经逼近5%", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2430.748, "end": 2432.508, "text": "这么危险的一个数字了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2432.508, "end": 2434.908, "text": "贝森特的逻辑非常的清楚", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2434.908, "end": 2436.668, "text": "他这一次不想要", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2436.668, "end": 2438.288, "text": "就是靠美元来", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2438.288, "end": 2439.288, "text": "卖美元", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2439.288, "end": 2440.968, "text": "买日元来救日元了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2440.968, "end": 2443.148, "text": "而是要靠日本自己升息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2443.148, "end": 2445.588, "text": "来缩小每日之间的这个利差", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2445.588, "end": 2447.528, "text": "而这样子的话出来之后", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2447.528, "end": 2448.708, "text": "大家也在回顾说", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2448.708, "end": 2450.808, "text": "会不会当时1985年的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2450.808, "end": 2451.708, "text": "广场协议", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2451.708, "end": 2454.028, "text": "又再度的发酵了呢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1266408631295869, "no_speech_prob": 1.1526252174931528e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25503355704698 }, { "start": 2454.028, "end": 2457.568, "text": "让日本再次经历下一次的失落20年吗", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2457.568, "end": 2459.328, "text": "先来请教谢大使怎么看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2459.328, "end": 2461.028, "text": "当然了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2461.028, "end": 2463.808, "text": "贝森特这句话反面的意思就是说", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2463.808, "end": 2465.368, "text": "你不准卖美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2465.368, "end": 2467.048, "text": "我告诉你", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2467.048, "end": 2468.108, "text": "你只能怎么样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2468.108, "end": 2469.208, "text": "你只能生息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2469.208, "end": 2471.768, "text": "你两个选择你只能生息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2471.768, "end": 2476.248, "text": "这个其实在日本内部是有争论的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2476.248, "end": 2478.768, "text": "高市长因为他这个执政", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2478.768, "end": 2480.808, "text": "就主政的经验不足", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16174226907583383, "no_speech_prob": 1.0851426528180053e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2834008097165992 }, { "start": 2480.808, "end": 2484.268, "text": "然后他也是很意识形态", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2484.268, "end": 2486.928, "text": "意识形态建国的治国", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2486.928, "end": 2489.148, "text": "意识形态建国的都是有一个", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2489.148, "end": 2491.168, "text": "就是说都有一个特色", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2491.168, "end": 2494.088, "text": "就是经济要为政治服务", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2494.088, "end": 2496.368, "text": "不是政治为经济服务", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2496.368, "end": 2497.728, "text": "有意识形态的国家", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2497.728, "end": 2498.828, "text": "政府都是这样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2498.828, "end": 2501.028, "text": "意识形态是最高价值", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2501.028, "end": 2502.688, "text": "用花钱去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2502.688, "end": 2505.828, "text": "花钱去达到意识形态的目标", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2505.828, "end": 2508.548, "text": "高市早苗就是这一种", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2508.548, "end": 2510.328, "text": "所以高市早苗这一点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15064747269089157, "no_speech_prob": 1.192371375247081e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6730769230769231 }, { "start": 2510.328, "end": 2513.568, "text": "就和日本的自民党的造王者", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2513.568, "end": 2516.188, "text": "麻生太郎有严重的冲突", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2516.188, "end": 2517.468, "text": "听说有一次", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2517.468, "end": 2521.648, "text": "就是说日元暴跌的问题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2521.648, "end": 2525.268, "text": "麻生太郎去见高石澡苗", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2525.268, "end": 2526.788, "text": "谈了不到一个小时", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2526.788, "end": 2529.688, "text": "麻生出来面色非常难看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2529.688, "end": 2533.128, "text": "出来就搞他的派系在开会议", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2533.128, "end": 2535.448, "text": "好像是想把高石澡苗弄下来", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2535.448, "end": 2537.108, "text": "其实他们最大的真正点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2537.108, "end": 2538.808, "text": "就是在怎么样来救", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17337735493977866, "no_speech_prob": 1.3403994060523505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.310204081632653 }, { "start": 2538.808, "end": 2541.888, "text": "跌跌不休的日元", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2541.888, "end": 2545.088, "text": "麻生太郎他们这一派的看法是什么", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2545.088, "end": 2547.748, "text": "不能生息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2547.748, "end": 2549.088, "text": "只能卖美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2549.088, "end": 2550.868, "text": "你就卖美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2550.868, "end": 2552.888, "text": "上一次卖了700多亿", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2552.888, "end": 2555.708, "text": "这一次又花了一两百亿", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2555.708, "end": 2556.908, "text": "因为有美国出手", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2556.908, "end": 2559.648, "text": "也没有在美国手上的美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2559.648, "end": 2560.848, "text": "不到10%", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2560.848, "end": 2562.328, "text": "不到10%", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2562.328, "end": 2563.308, "text": "不到一成", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2563.308, "end": 2565.188, "text": "那你手上这个工具", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2565.188, "end": 2566.388, "text": "你拿着美债干嘛", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2566.388, "end": 2567.388, "text": "你死抱着美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14777995871125366, "no_speech_prob": 1.3308074260642844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3612334801762114 }, { "start": 2567.388, "end": 2569.288, "text": "你救美国 美国感谢你", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2569.288, "end": 2571.488, "text": "你要救日本", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2571.488, "end": 2573.488, "text": "你现在这次先卖1000亿", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2573.488, "end": 2574.588, "text": "看看救不救得了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2574.588, "end": 2575.788, "text": "事实上是可能", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2575.788, "end": 2577.088, "text": "1000亿不足", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2577.088, "end": 2578.688, "text": "1500亿下去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2578.688, "end": 2583.488, "text": "日本现在的美债是一兆1000多亿", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2583.488, "end": 2586.188, "text": "你抓那么多美债干嘛", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2586.188, "end": 2588.288, "text": "你是在撑美元", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2588.288, "end": 2590.288, "text": "撑美元你自己要先撑得住", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2590.288, "end": 2593.288, "text": "所以这个麻生他们是这样看法", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2593.288, "end": 2595.088, "text": "可是你如果卖掉", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2595.088, "end": 2596.688, "text": "你现在卖掉500亿", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2699872746187098, "no_speech_prob": 9.162818073726875e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3786008230452675 }, { "start": 2596.688, "end": 2599.868, "text": "卖掉1000亿美债的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2599.868, "end": 2601.868, "text": "那美国就不高兴了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2601.868, "end": 2603.208, "text": "你这个是什么", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2603.208, "end": 2603.868, "text": "你这个是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2603.868, "end": 2606.628, "text": "你这个背后插刀", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2606.628, "end": 2608.328, "text": "所以贝森特一听", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2608.328, "end": 2609.588, "text": "你们这个日币守不住", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2609.588, "end": 2611.248, "text": "第一个讲就是说", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2611.248, "end": 2612.488, "text": "你不你要", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2612.488, "end": 2614.408, "text": "你就是你只有一条路", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2614.408, "end": 2615.408, "text": "就是什么", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2615.408, "end": 2616.108, "text": "生息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2616.108, "end": 2619.568, "text": "那为什么麻生他们反对生息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2619.568, "end": 2623.848, "text": "日本现在的利息是非常的低", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2623.848, "end": 2625.888, "text": "可是日本有两大问题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18528124593919323, "no_speech_prob": 1.5374838555071157e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3829787234042554 }, { "start": 2625.888, "end": 2628.568, "text": "第一个你升息以后", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2628.568, "end": 2630.068, "text": "日本的国债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2630.068, "end": 2632.848, "text": "你这个利息就会吃掉", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2632.848, "end": 2634.888, "text": "日本国债的利息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2634.888, "end": 2636.588, "text": "国债这个日本政府", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2636.588, "end": 2638.568, "text": "每年要负担的利息就很重", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2638.568, "end": 2640.868, "text": "你再升息利息更重", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2640.868, "end": 2641.848, "text": "那会怎么样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2641.848, "end": 2644.748, "text": "排挤很多社会福利的这些开支", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2644.748, "end": 2646.988, "text": "很多政府的必要的开支", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2646.988, "end": 2649.248, "text": "那因为日本的国债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2649.248, "end": 2651.628, "text": "它是目前它的GDP的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2651.628, "end": 2653.268, "text": "这个2.6倍", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14204229736328125, "no_speech_prob": 1.0848794952666996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4377880184331797 }, { "start": 2653.268, "end": 2657.168, "text": "如果以4兆来算日本的GDP的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2657.168, "end": 2660.388, "text": "那大概就是10.4兆美元的国债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2660.388, "end": 2662.128, "text": "日本这么小一个国家", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2662.128, "end": 2663.128, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2663.128, "end": 2667.008, "text": "他的国债是美国国债的四分之", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2667.008, "end": 2669.028, "text": "这个好四分之一", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2669.028, "end": 2669.828, "text": "日本也不过", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2669.828, "end": 2671.128, "text": "美国才不过40兆", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2671.128, "end": 2672.228, "text": "他就10兆了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2672.228, "end": 2672.888, "text": "对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2672.888, "end": 2674.768, "text": "可是问题国债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2674.768, "end": 2675.248, "text": "第一个", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2675.248, "end": 2676.908, "text": "你如果升息的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2676.908, "end": 2678.268, "text": "那第一个", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2678.268, "end": 2680.848, "text": "美国日本政府的负担会更重", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2680.848, "end": 2682.968, "text": "第二个问题是什么", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.178820858830991, "no_speech_prob": 9.400610498366824e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 2682.968, "end": 2684.188, "text": "第二个问题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2684.188, "end": 2687.208, "text": "日本有25万家僵尸企业", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2687.208, "end": 2690.188, "text": "这些僵尸企业还撑住的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2690.188, "end": 2693.368, "text": "就是因为他的银行贷款的利息还很低", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2693.368, "end": 2696.688, "text": "如果他的利息提高的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2696.688, "end": 2699.288, "text": "那这些僵尸企业的银行利率", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2699.288, "end": 2701.028, "text": "会把这些僵尸企业都怎么样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2701.028, "end": 2701.808, "text": "让他们破产", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2701.808, "end": 2704.088, "text": "25万的僵尸企业", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2704.088, "end": 2705.648, "text": "这样一破产下去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2705.648, "end": 2708.868, "text": "日本会造成一个重大的经济危机", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2708.868, "end": 2711.808, "text": "那最主要是大量的失业人口", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08156367967713554, "no_speech_prob": 1.119376379782322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.473469387755102 }, { "start": 2711.808, "end": 2713.768, "text": "这是很严重的政治问题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2713.768, "end": 2715.568, "text": "所以我们就看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2715.568, "end": 2719.448, "text": "高市早苗如果他要升息的话", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2719.448, "end": 2722.088, "text": "他就要面临日本的经济的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2722.088, "end": 2724.808, "text": "一个可能比日元贬值更大的冲击", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2724.808, "end": 2727.908, "text": "可是他敢去卖美债吗", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2727.908, "end": 2729.668, "text": "他一切都要靠美国了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2729.668, "end": 2731.668, "text": "他现在不管搞军国主义", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2731.668, "end": 2733.928, "text": "搞一大堆美国人还没坑气", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2733.928, "end": 2735.088, "text": "美国人要坑气", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2735.088, "end": 2736.048, "text": "他路就走不通", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2736.048, "end": 2738.228, "text": "所以他现在不敢得罪美国", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2738.228, "end": 2740.648, "text": "所以我看他最后可能还是怎么样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11045750818754498, "no_speech_prob": 1.0816748538533538e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4072727272727272 }, { "start": 2740.648, "end": 2742.048, "text": "就是升息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23073477580629545, "no_speech_prob": 2.0613030379812436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0263157894736843 }, { "start": 2742.048, "end": 2743.608, "text": "那升息的话就看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23073477580629545, "no_speech_prob": 2.0613030379812436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0263157894736843 }, { "start": 2743.608, "end": 2745.088, "text": "那大家日本人就自己", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23073477580629545, "no_speech_prob": 2.0613030379812436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0263157894736843 }, { "start": 2745.088, "end": 2747.908, "text": "自己看这般了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23073477580629545, "no_speech_prob": 2.0613030379812436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0263157894736843 }, { "start": 2770.648, "end": 2772.648, "text": "支持我們製作高品質的影片", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2626004219055176, "no_speech_prob": 1.9541580159598837e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9357798165137615 }, { "start": 2772.648, "end": 2774.648, "text": "點擊下方的加入鍵", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2626004219055176, "no_speech_prob": 1.9541580159598837e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9357798165137615 }, { "start": 2774.648, "end": 2776.648, "text": "一起成為戰友吧", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2626004219055176, "no_speech_prob": 1.9541580159598837e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9357798165137615 }, { "start": 2776.648, "end": 2778.648, "text": "我們會員頻道見", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2626004219055176, "no_speech_prob": 1.9541580159598837e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9357798165137615 } ], "segmented_transcription": { "status": "SEGMENTED_TRANSCRIPT_OK", "created_at": "2026-09-18T14:08:06", "manifest": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260918_140635__日本一升息華爾街就要斷糧_美國爽借30年_免費錢_全球套利資金恐開始大撤退_環球大戰線/segmented_work/chunk_manifest.json", "audio": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260918_140635__日本一升息華爾街就要斷糧_美國爽借30年_免費錢_全球套利資金恐開始大撤退_環球大戰線/audio_16k_mono.wav", 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