無視川普施壓 Fed突升息1碼順應三大變化!貝森特救美債慘碰壁 殖利率越救越高衝破5%|【全球大視野】精華版 @全球大視野Global_Vision

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0:00.000–0:00.800
enThe market was
0:00.800–0:02.667
enoriginally expecting a rate cut,
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enbut the Federal Reserve
0:04.000–0:05.267
enultimately decided to
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enresume rate hikes instead,
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enbecause they have now
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endecided not to heed Trump.
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enOn September 16,
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enthe Fed announced a rate hike of one notch,
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enwhich is 25 basis points,
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enbringing the interest
0:15.400–0:17.000
enrate to between 3.75% and 4%.
0:17.000–0:17.600
enOf course,
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enthis time,
0:18.200–0:19.467
enFed Chair Walsh stated
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enthat the rate hike is
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enbased on an assessment
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enof the current economy,
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enemployment,
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enand economic strength,
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enand is not market-driven.
0:30.560–0:33.520
zh而川普也提出了更多的期待在最后期的年代
0:35.760–0:40.800
zh在这个决定,川普总是否认为川普总是否认为川普总是
0:40.800–0:45.760
zh川普总是川普总是川普总是川普总是一种高的,
0:45.760–0:47.600
zh而川普总是川普总是最高的
0:47.600–0:51.180
zh但是,除了中共的股票,
0:51.180–0:53.740
zh川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
0:53.740–0:56.820
zh川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
0:56.820–1:01.160
zh在股票上升级了其他股票上升级,
1:01.160–1:05.260
zh但估计,川普总统的股票上升级5%,
1:05.260–1:07.900
zh上升级最高的位置在2007,
1:07.900–1:10.240
zh所以川普总统是在股票上升级,
1:10.240–1:13.040
zh但它可能是股票上升级现在。
1:13.040–1:14.400
zh请我问一下,总统的总统?
1:14.400–1:15.935
enonce you raise interest
1:15.935–1:17.394
enrates money flows back
1:17.394–1:19.620
enbecause interest rates are higher
1:19.620–1:20.759
ennaturally the stock
1:20.759–1:21.966
enmarket will cool down
1:21.966–1:23.440
enbecause the money has left
1:23.440–1:25.373
enfleeing the stock market
1:25.373–1:27.030
enonce the stock market
1:27.030–1:29.240
encools down as everyone knows
1:29.240–1:30.520
eneveryone's personal
1:30.520–1:31.871
eninflation what we call
1:31.871–1:33.720
enit will decrease although that
1:33.720–1:35.187
enpressure doesn't usually
1:35.187–1:36.653
enpass through immediately
1:36.653–1:37.920
enmy salary isn't rising
1:37.920–1:39.320
enas fast as prices so i
1:39.320–1:41.960
enfeel like the money i earn is just
1:41.960–1:42.560
ennotenough
1:42.560–1:43.720
enthat's how it is
1:43.720–1:45.492
enyour overall government
1:45.492–1:46.841
enapproval rating is
1:46.841–1:48.360
enrelatively affected
1:48.360–1:50.360
enso these things are interconnected
1:50.360–1:51.227
enif you cut rates
1:51.227–1:52.093
enmoney flows out
1:52.093–1:53.627
enheating up the stock market
1:53.627–1:54.493
enwith more money
1:54.493–1:56.227
enreal estate becomes expensive
1:56.227–1:57.493
enand prices go up as well
1:57.493–1:58.493
enonce they are high
1:58.493–2:00.360
eneveryone suffers from inflation
2:00.360–2:02.760
enespecially the middle and working classes
2:02.760–2:05.160
enblue collar and white collar workers alike
2:05.160–2:06.827
eneveryone finds it unbearable
2:06.827–2:08.093
enand if your government
2:08.093–2:09.560
enis approaching elections
2:09.560–2:11.160
enyou have to consider all this
2:11.160–2:12.293
ennow regarding the u.
2:12.293–2:12.793
ens.
2:12.793–2:13.593
ennational debt
2:13.593–2:15.660
enit has already surpassed 40 trillion
2:15.660–2:17.660
enso you need to offer treasury yields
2:17.660–2:18.260
enotherwise
2:18.260–2:19.793
eneveryone will dump US bonds
2:19.793–2:21.193
ento keep them from selling
2:21.193–2:22.193
enI have to raise the
2:22.193–2:23.527
eninterest rates on these
2:23.527–2:24.793
enbonds just a little bit
2:24.793–2:26.260
enbut you have to pay for that
2:26.260–2:27.527
enand you need to realize
2:27.527–2:29.593
enif the 10-year treasury yield is at 5%
2:29.593–2:31.327
enand you have 40 trillion in debt
2:31.327–2:33.527
enjust think about multiplying that by 5%
2:33.527–2:35.060
enyou'd have to pay 2 trillion
2:35.060–2:36.393
enjust for the interest on
2:36.393–2:38.393
enthe national debt every single year
2:38.393–2:40.527
enit's just like what we said about japan
2:40.527–2:42.727
enjapan's national debt is also very high
2:42.727–2:44.860
eneveryone calculates it differently,
2:44.860–2:46.060
enbut my figure is 220%.
2:46.060–2:46.860
enSome say 260%,
2:46.860–2:48.327
ensaying it's not that high,
2:48.327–2:50.668
enbut 220% is 220% of your entire GDP,
2:50.668–2:53.631
enso you have to see if that's sustainable.
2:53.631–2:55.200
enJapan is the highest,
2:55.460–2:58.464
enwhile the US hasn't reached over 200% yet.
2:58.464–2:59.494
enThe US is only,
2:59.494–3:00.181
enit seems,
3:00.181–3:01.640
enjust a bit over 100%.
3:01.640–3:03.694
enIt's not even half of Japan's level.
3:03.694–3:04.789
enBut the problem is,
3:04.789–3:06.500
enif everyone decides to dump US
3:06.500–3:11.660
zh现在,你会知道,中国的印象,原来,中国的1.1 trillion,
3:12.200–3:15.460
zh他们是保持美国的美国,现在他们只有一些钱,
3:15.460–3:18.620
zh他们只有一半半的钱,因为, well,为什么?
3:18.760–3:19.940
zh因为,因为,大家是在负责的,
3:19.940–3:21.140
enSome might be selling
3:21.140–3:22.473
enbonds to invest in other
3:22.473–3:24.473
eninfrastructure projects instead.
3:24.473–3:26.873
enWhy would I definitely have to buy US bonds?
3:26.873–3:28.740
enSecondly, buying gold is better.
3:28.740–3:30.873
enIf you default on the US dollar one day,
3:30.873–3:32.540
enwho am I supposed to ask for it?
3:32.540–3:33.873
enThat situation exists.
3:33.873–3:35.673
enLook at the Russia-Ukraine war.
3:35.673–3:37.807
enRussia's assets were frozen by the US.
3:37.807–3:39.607
enSo why should I buy your dollars?
3:39.607–3:41.207
enSo there are interconnected
3:41.207–3:42.407
enrelationships here.
3:44.040–3:45.173
enI think about the Fed
3:45.173–3:46.440
ennow wanting to buy back
3:46.440–3:47.240
enits own bonds,
3:47.240–3:48.307
enmuch like a company
3:48.307–3:49.773
enbuying back its own stock,
3:49.773–3:51.440
enwhich we call treasury stock.
3:51.500–3:52.700
enYou're using your own
3:52.700–3:54.167
enmoney to buy your own debt.
3:54.167–3:55.300
enIt's the same thing.
3:57.360–3:57.860
enHmm.
3:58.260–3:59.460
enSo, I don't think that
3:59.460–4:00.927
enwill solve the root cause,
4:00.927–4:01.427
enwill it?
4:01.520–4:03.563
enI think it's just a temporary fix,
4:03.563–4:04.220
ennot a cure.
4:04.560–4:06.160
enIt only treats the symptoms.
4:06.160–4:07.093
enTo truly cure it,
4:07.093–4:08.960
enyou have to get the economy right.
4:09.020–4:09.520
enHmm.
4:09.540–4:11.540
enCurrently, the economy is not good,
4:11.620–4:13.887
enand there's a persistent trade deficit,
4:13.887–4:15.487
enconstantly buying too much,
4:15.487–4:17.420
enmeaning your money is flowing out.
4:17.420–4:18.487
enIf that's the case,
4:18.487–4:20.687
enthe entire job market will be affected,
4:20.687–4:22.953
enbecause I keep buying things from abroad
4:22.953–4:24.287
enso my domestic industry
4:24.287–4:25.620
endoesn't need to produce
4:25.620–4:27.287
enbecause everything is bought
4:27.287–4:28.687
enimported goods are cheap
4:28.687–4:30.887
enwhile your own production is expensive
4:30.887–4:33.087
enif you look at the industrial structure
4:33.087–4:34.487
enAmerican workers' wages
4:34.487–4:35.753
enare 6 times higher than
4:35.753–4:37.087
enthose in mainland China
4:37.087–4:38.553
en$10,000 in mainland China
4:38.553–4:40.220
enwhile the US is $60,000 a month
4:40.220–4:41.287
enthe ratio is 6 times
4:41.287–4:41.887
en5 to 6 times
4:41.887–4:42.387
enum
4:42.387–4:43.053
enin that case
4:43.053–4:44.987
enyour costs are naturally very high
4:44.987–4:46.587
enbecause you have labor costs
4:46.587–4:47.500
enmaterial costs
4:47.500–4:49.367
enand then the costs for facilities
5:19.180–5:22.180
zh沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入。
5:23.180–5:26.180
zh並且有5萬人入了10分鐘,
5:27.180–5:32.180
zh與10分的評價超過12.3萬人超過500萬人的評價。
5:33.180–5:37.180
zh所以,《People's Daily》給了一讚並且指定了三個提供,
5:38.180–5:41.180
zh指出這演出的創作為了一種感情的感情,
5:42.180–5:43.180
zh成為了一種感情,
5:44.180–5:45.180
zh成為了一種感情,
5:45.180–5:46.513
enwilling to contribute,
5:46.513–5:47.913
enand a responsibility for
5:47.913–5:49.713
encarrying on the cultural torch.
5:49.860–5:50.360
enRight,
5:50.360–5:52.227
enbut let me introduce this person,
5:52.227–5:52.760
enDao Leng,
5:52.760–5:53.493
ento everyone.
5:54.640–5:55.441
enBack in 2023,
5:55.441–5:56.751
enhe had a song that took
5:56.751–5:58.134
enthe internet by storm,
5:58.134–6:00.900
enand Dao Leng's popularity surged once again.
6:01.860–6:02.993
enHe held many meet and
6:02.993–6:04.927
engreet tours and sat down with fans,
6:04.927–6:05.727
enbut in the end,
6:05.727–6:08.060
enhe didn't choose to stay in the spotlight.
6:08.060–6:12.780
zh他一旦的一群人在山上的城市中的群人
6:12.780–6:15.300
zh在海外的群人中的歌曲
6:15.300–6:17.980
zh在海外的群人中的歌曲
6:19.780–6:23.500
zh所以,这一场演唱会很大多人
6:23.500–6:24.580
zh问 Jun
6:25.940–6:28.540
zh我说,这些人在中国的东西
6:28.540–6:31.100
zh我们说的,像《Black Myth》
6:31.100–6:32.420
en《Wukong Asterisk》
6:32.420–6:33.540
zh或者其他人的电影
6:33.540–6:36.700
zh我们看,包括韩国电影
6:36.700–6:37.700
zh日本人的劇情
6:37.700–6:40.220
zh不忘了那些中国人的劇情
6:40.220–6:42.180
zh而且因为
6:42.180–6:43.780
zh因为他们都有一个文化
6:43.780–6:45.660
zh大家是熟悉的
6:45.660–6:46.160
zh我说
6:46.160–6:48.020
zh我没看《Journey to the West》
6:48.020–6:49.300
zh如果您没看过
6:49.300–6:50.180
zh你听到它
6:50.180–6:53.020
zh大家喜欢《Journey to the West》
6:53.020–6:54.100
zh都在《Demons》
6:54.100–6:54.860
en《Monsters》
6:54.860–6:55.860
en《Zubaji》
6:55.860–6:57.220
zh大家已经有了
6:57.220–6:59.100
zh所以很容易追求
6:59.100–7:01.420
zh但如果一旅人看过
7:01.420–7:02.460
zh他们会问
7:02.460–7:04.100
zh为什么会有这么大
7:04.100–7:08.820
zh或是,那些人的戒指是,你必须解解一下
7:08.820–7:13.060
zh他们不可能是沙烏军,或是沙烏军的戒指
7:27.551–7:28.778
enif you pay attention
7:28.778–7:29.861
enyou'll see why the
7:29.861–7:31.233
ensettings in dramas are
7:31.233–7:32.244
enso vivid like 10,
7:32.244–7:33.471
en000 horses charging
7:33.471–7:34.832
enpart of it is AI and
7:34.832–7:36.465
enpart is animation you
7:36.465–7:38.007
encan tell you can tell
7:38.007–7:39.731
enbut a large part of it is
7:39.731–7:40.835
enactually real life
7:40.835–7:42.077
enlocations it's not an
7:42.077–7:43.457
enanimated backdrop it's
7:43.457–7:45.251
enreal scenery and that's what's
7:45.251–7:46.652
enattractive because if
7:46.652–7:48.127
enthey need the forbidden
7:48.127–7:49.307
encity they have it if
7:49.307–7:51.151
enthey need a moat they have it if
7:51.151–7:52.399
enthey need a city gate
7:52.399–7:53.794
entower they have it they
7:53.794–7:54.675
enhave all those
7:54.675–7:56.217
enbackground resources to
7:56.217–7:56.951
enuse both the
7:56.951–8:26.931
zh中文字幕的文字幕
8:26.951–8:31.831
zh所以,因为我们分享这种语言,你会有这些三个组合的,
8:31.831–8:33.391
zh为了为了大家是这样的
8:33.391–8:34.724
enplus they are aiming for
8:34.724–8:36.058
encultural export so they
8:36.058–8:37.391
enaren't selling tickets
8:37.391–8:38.724
enthey don't take tips and
8:38.724–8:40.058
enthey don't insert ads in
8:40.058–8:41.058
enthat way it's even
8:41.058–8:42.258
enbetter we used to talk
8:42.258–8:44.058
enabout user pays but here the user
8:44.058–8:45.124
endoesn't have to pay
8:45.124–8:46.191
enwhich makes it more
8:46.191–8:47.591
enaccessible and they gain
8:47.591–8:49.458
entraffic instead they profit from
8:49.458–8:50.791
entraffic they don't need
8:50.791–8:51.991
enyour money because ad
8:51.991–8:53.191
enrevenue is enough for
8:53.191–8:54.511
enthem yeah it's not that
8:54.511–8:55.666
enthey're doing it at a
8:55.666–8:56.889
enloss but that i have ad
8:56.889–8:58.044
enrevenue i don't need
8:58.044–8:59.471
enyour money i earn from the
8:59.471–9:02.351
zh它是像我们买一批的
9:02.351–9:04.711
zh它是很便宜的
9:04.711–9:05.551
zh但它是很便宜的
9:05.551–9:08.071
zh它是费用的
9:08.071–9:08.571
zh它是费用的
9:08.571–9:09.711
zh它是费用的
9:09.711–9:10.871
zh你不能买的
9:10.871–9:12.431
zh因为它不会印刷
9:12.431–9:12.991
zh它是不刷的
9:12.991–9:13.871
zh它是费用的
9:13.871–9:14.551
zh如果费用的
9:14.551–9:15.071
zh它是费用的
9:15.071–9:15.711
zh它是费用的
9:15.711–9:16.711
zh它是费用的
9:16.711–9:17.511
zh它是费用的
9:17.511–9:18.711
zh所以它是费用的
9:18.711–9:19.871
zh所以你必须费
9:19.871–9:20.591
zh他们费用的
9:20.591–9:21.591
zh然后他们费用的
9:21.591–9:22.391
zh费用的
9:22.391–9:23.071
zh那是他们费用的
9:23.071–9:24.271
zh费用的
9:24.271–9:24.771
zh费用的
9:24.771–9:25.271
zh大家好
9:25.271–9:26.151
zh我设计
9:26.151–9:27.151
zh我设计
9:27.151–9:28.684
enwith the pressures of life,
9:28.684–9:30.084
eninsomnia and light sleep
9:30.084–9:31.351
enare common worries for
9:31.351–9:32.218
enmodern people.
9:32.218–9:34.151
enSunshine Kefir Probiotics has now
9:34.151–9:35.351
enlaunched an advanced
9:35.351–9:36.484
engood night version,
9:36.484–9:37.684
enadding ashwagandha,
9:37.684–9:38.418
entryptophan,
9:38.418–9:39.018
entheanine,
9:39.018–9:39.884
enand lemon balm,
9:39.884–9:41.018
enfour natural herbs.
9:41.018–9:42.284
enChoose Sunshine Kefir
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enProbiotics for your
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endaily maintenance,
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enkeeping your body
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enburden-free and making
9:46.884–9:48.618
enevery kefir moment a great one.
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enGood felt, feel good.
9:49.818–9:51.084
enPlease visit WhoIDN to
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enorder for your health
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enand enter the referral
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encode for an extra discount.
9:57.151–9:58.292
enSunshine Kefir
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enProbiotics Basic Version
10:00.223–10:01.891
enand Goodnight Version
10:01.891–10:03.046
enNewly redesigned
10:03.046–10:04.587
enpackaging with the same
10:04.587–10:05.511
engreat formula
0:00.000–0:00.800
The market was
0:00.800–0:02.667
originally expecting a rate cut,
0:02.667–0:04.000
but the Federal Reserve
0:04.000–0:05.267
ultimately decided to
0:05.267–0:06.800
resume rate hikes instead,
0:06.800–0:08.000
because they have now
0:08.000–0:09.467
decided not to heed Trump.
0:09.467–0:10.400
On September 16,
0:10.400–0:12.733
the Fed announced a rate hike of one notch,
0:12.733–0:14.133
which is 25 basis points,
0:14.133–0:15.400
bringing the interest
0:15.400–0:17.000
rate to between 3.75% and 4%.
0:17.000–0:17.600
Of course,
0:17.600–0:18.200
this time,
0:18.200–0:19.467
Fed Chair Walsh stated
0:19.467–0:20.600
that the rate hike is
0:20.600–0:21.867
based on an assessment
0:21.867–0:23.200
of the current economy,
0:23.200–0:23.933
employment,
0:23.933–0:25.267
and economic strength,
0:25.267–0:26.733
and is not market-driven.
0:30.560–0:33.520
而川普也提出了更多的期待在最后期的年代
0:35.760–0:40.800
在这个决定,川普总是否认为川普总是否认为川普总是
0:40.800–0:45.760
川普总是川普总是川普总是川普总是一种高的,
0:45.760–0:47.600
而川普总是川普总是最高的
0:47.600–0:51.180
但是,除了中共的股票,
0:51.180–0:53.740
川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
0:53.740–0:56.820
川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
0:56.820–1:01.160
在股票上升级了其他股票上升级,
1:01.160–1:05.260
但估计,川普总统的股票上升级5%,
1:05.260–1:07.900
上升级最高的位置在2007,
1:07.900–1:10.240
所以川普总统是在股票上升级,
1:10.240–1:13.040
但它可能是股票上升级现在。
1:13.040–1:14.400
请我问一下,总统的总统?
1:14.400–1:15.935
once you raise interest
1:15.935–1:17.394
rates money flows back
1:17.394–1:19.620
because interest rates are higher
1:19.620–1:20.759
naturally the stock
1:20.759–1:21.966
market will cool down
1:21.966–1:23.440
because the money has left
1:23.440–1:25.373
fleeing the stock market
1:25.373–1:27.030
once the stock market
1:27.030–1:29.240
cools down as everyone knows
1:29.240–1:30.520
everyone's personal
1:30.520–1:31.871
inflation what we call
1:31.871–1:33.720
it will decrease although that
1:33.720–1:35.187
pressure doesn't usually
1:35.187–1:36.653
pass through immediately
1:36.653–1:37.920
my salary isn't rising
1:37.920–1:39.320
as fast as prices so i
1:39.320–1:41.960
feel like the money i earn is just
1:41.960–1:42.560
notenough
1:42.560–1:43.720
that's how it is
1:43.720–1:45.492
your overall government
1:45.492–1:46.841
approval rating is
1:46.841–1:48.360
relatively affected
1:48.360–1:50.360
so these things are interconnected
1:50.360–1:51.227
if you cut rates
1:51.227–1:52.093
money flows out
1:52.093–1:53.627
heating up the stock market
1:53.627–1:54.493
with more money
1:54.493–1:56.227
real estate becomes expensive
1:56.227–1:57.493
and prices go up as well
1:57.493–1:58.493
once they are high
1:58.493–2:00.360
everyone suffers from inflation
2:00.360–2:02.760
especially the middle and working classes
2:02.760–2:05.160
blue collar and white collar workers alike
2:05.160–2:06.827
everyone finds it unbearable
2:06.827–2:08.093
and if your government
2:08.093–2:09.560
is approaching elections
2:09.560–2:11.160
you have to consider all this
2:11.160–2:12.293
now regarding the u.
2:12.293–2:12.793
s.
2:12.793–2:13.593
national debt
2:13.593–2:15.660
it has already surpassed 40 trillion
2:15.660–2:17.660
so you need to offer treasury yields
2:17.660–2:18.260
otherwise
2:18.260–2:19.793
everyone will dump US bonds
2:19.793–2:21.193
to keep them from selling
2:21.193–2:22.193
I have to raise the
2:22.193–2:23.527
interest rates on these
2:23.527–2:24.793
bonds just a little bit
2:24.793–2:26.260
but you have to pay for that
2:26.260–2:27.527
and you need to realize
2:27.527–2:29.593
if the 10-year treasury yield is at 5%
2:29.593–2:31.327
and you have 40 trillion in debt
2:31.327–2:33.527
just think about multiplying that by 5%
2:33.527–2:35.060
you'd have to pay 2 trillion
2:35.060–2:36.393
just for the interest on
2:36.393–2:38.393
the national debt every single year
2:38.393–2:40.527
it's just like what we said about japan
2:40.527–2:42.727
japan's national debt is also very high
2:42.727–2:44.860
everyone calculates it differently,
2:44.860–2:46.060
but my figure is 220%.
2:46.060–2:46.860
Some say 260%,
2:46.860–2:48.327
saying it's not that high,
2:48.327–2:50.668
but 220% is 220% of your entire GDP,
2:50.668–2:53.631
so you have to see if that's sustainable.
2:53.631–2:55.200
Japan is the highest,
2:55.460–2:58.464
while the US hasn't reached over 200% yet.
2:58.464–2:59.494
The US is only,
2:59.494–3:00.181
it seems,
3:00.181–3:01.640
just a bit over 100%.
3:01.640–3:03.694
It's not even half of Japan's level.
3:03.694–3:04.789
But the problem is,
3:04.789–3:06.500
if everyone decides to dump US
3:06.500–3:11.660
现在,你会知道,中国的印象,原来,中国的1.1 trillion,
3:12.200–3:15.460
他们是保持美国的美国,现在他们只有一些钱,
3:15.460–3:18.620
他们只有一半半的钱,因为, well,为什么?
3:18.760–3:19.940
因为,因为,大家是在负责的,
3:19.940–3:21.140
Some might be selling
3:21.140–3:22.473
bonds to invest in other
3:22.473–3:24.473
infrastructure projects instead.
3:24.473–3:26.873
Why would I definitely have to buy US bonds?
3:26.873–3:28.740
Secondly, buying gold is better.
3:28.740–3:30.873
If you default on the US dollar one day,
3:30.873–3:32.540
who am I supposed to ask for it?
3:32.540–3:33.873
That situation exists.
3:33.873–3:35.673
Look at the Russia-Ukraine war.
3:35.673–3:37.807
Russia's assets were frozen by the US.
3:37.807–3:39.607
So why should I buy your dollars?
3:39.607–3:41.207
So there are interconnected
3:41.207–3:42.407
relationships here.
3:44.040–3:45.173
I think about the Fed
3:45.173–3:46.440
now wanting to buy back
3:46.440–3:47.240
its own bonds,
3:47.240–3:48.307
much like a company
3:48.307–3:49.773
buying back its own stock,
3:49.773–3:51.440
which we call treasury stock.
3:51.500–3:52.700
You're using your own
3:52.700–3:54.167
money to buy your own debt.
3:54.167–3:55.300
It's the same thing.
3:57.360–3:57.860
Hmm.
3:58.260–3:59.460
So, I don't think that
3:59.460–4:00.927
will solve the root cause,
4:00.927–4:01.427
will it?
4:01.520–4:03.563
I think it's just a temporary fix,
4:03.563–4:04.220
not a cure.
4:04.560–4:06.160
It only treats the symptoms.
4:06.160–4:07.093
To truly cure it,
4:07.093–4:08.960
you have to get the economy right.
4:09.020–4:09.520
Hmm.
4:09.540–4:11.540
Currently, the economy is not good,
4:11.620–4:13.887
and there's a persistent trade deficit,
4:13.887–4:15.487
constantly buying too much,
4:15.487–4:17.420
meaning your money is flowing out.
4:17.420–4:18.487
If that's the case,
4:18.487–4:20.687
the entire job market will be affected,
4:20.687–4:22.953
because I keep buying things from abroad
4:22.953–4:24.287
so my domestic industry
4:24.287–4:25.620
doesn't need to produce
4:25.620–4:27.287
because everything is bought
4:27.287–4:28.687
imported goods are cheap
4:28.687–4:30.887
while your own production is expensive
4:30.887–4:33.087
if you look at the industrial structure
4:33.087–4:34.487
American workers' wages
4:34.487–4:35.753
are 6 times higher than
4:35.753–4:37.087
those in mainland China
4:37.087–4:38.553
$10,000 in mainland China
4:38.553–4:40.220
while the US is $60,000 a month
4:40.220–4:41.287
the ratio is 6 times
4:41.287–4:41.887
5 to 6 times
4:41.887–4:42.387
um
4:42.387–4:43.053
in that case
4:43.053–4:44.987
your costs are naturally very high
4:44.987–4:46.587
because you have labor costs
4:46.587–4:47.500
material costs
4:47.500–4:49.367
and then the costs for facilities
5:19.180–5:22.180
沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入。
5:23.180–5:26.180
並且有5萬人入了10分鐘,
5:27.180–5:32.180
與10分的評價超過12.3萬人超過500萬人的評價。
5:33.180–5:37.180
所以,《People's Daily》給了一讚並且指定了三個提供,
5:38.180–5:41.180
指出這演出的創作為了一種感情的感情,
5:42.180–5:43.180
成為了一種感情,
5:44.180–5:45.180
成為了一種感情,
5:45.180–5:46.513
willing to contribute,
5:46.513–5:47.913
and a responsibility for
5:47.913–5:49.713
carrying on the cultural torch.
5:49.860–5:50.360
Right,
5:50.360–5:52.227
but let me introduce this person,
5:52.227–5:52.760
Dao Leng,
5:52.760–5:53.493
to everyone.
5:54.640–5:55.441
Back in 2023,
5:55.441–5:56.751
he had a song that took
5:56.751–5:58.134
the internet by storm,
5:58.134–6:00.900
and Dao Leng's popularity surged once again.
6:01.860–6:02.993
He held many meet and
6:02.993–6:04.927
greet tours and sat down with fans,
6:04.927–6:05.727
but in the end,
6:05.727–6:08.060
he didn't choose to stay in the spotlight.
6:08.060–6:12.780
他一旦的一群人在山上的城市中的群人
6:12.780–6:15.300
在海外的群人中的歌曲
6:15.300–6:17.980
在海外的群人中的歌曲
6:19.780–6:23.500
所以,这一场演唱会很大多人
6:23.500–6:24.580
问 Jun
6:25.940–6:28.540
我说,这些人在中国的东西
6:28.540–6:31.100
我们说的,像《Black Myth》
6:31.100–6:32.420
《Wukong Asterisk》
6:32.420–6:33.540
或者其他人的电影
6:33.540–6:36.700
我们看,包括韩国电影
6:36.700–6:37.700
日本人的劇情
6:37.700–6:40.220
不忘了那些中国人的劇情
6:40.220–6:42.180
而且因为
6:42.180–6:43.780
因为他们都有一个文化
6:43.780–6:45.660
大家是熟悉的
6:45.660–6:46.160
我说
6:46.160–6:48.020
我没看《Journey to the West》
6:48.020–6:49.300
如果您没看过
6:49.300–6:50.180
你听到它
6:50.180–6:53.020
大家喜欢《Journey to the West》
6:53.020–6:54.100
都在《Demons》
6:54.100–6:54.860
《Monsters》
6:54.860–6:55.860
《Zubaji》
6:55.860–6:57.220
大家已经有了
6:57.220–6:59.100
所以很容易追求
6:59.100–7:01.420
但如果一旅人看过
7:01.420–7:02.460
他们会问
7:02.460–7:04.100
为什么会有这么大
7:04.100–7:08.820
或是,那些人的戒指是,你必须解解一下
7:08.820–7:13.060
他们不可能是沙烏军,或是沙烏军的戒指
7:27.551–7:28.778
if you pay attention
7:28.778–7:29.861
you'll see why the
7:29.861–7:31.233
settings in dramas are
7:31.233–7:32.244
so vivid like 10,
7:32.244–7:33.471
000 horses charging
7:33.471–7:34.832
part of it is AI and
7:34.832–7:36.465
part is animation you
7:36.465–7:38.007
can tell you can tell
7:38.007–7:39.731
but a large part of it is
7:39.731–7:40.835
actually real life
7:40.835–7:42.077
locations it's not an
7:42.077–7:43.457
animated backdrop it's
7:43.457–7:45.251
real scenery and that's what's
7:45.251–7:46.652
attractive because if
7:46.652–7:48.127
they need the forbidden
7:48.127–7:49.307
city they have it if
7:49.307–7:51.151
they need a moat they have it if
7:51.151–7:52.399
they need a city gate
7:52.399–7:53.794
tower they have it they
7:53.794–7:54.675
have all those
7:54.675–7:56.217
background resources to
7:56.217–7:56.951
use both the
7:56.951–8:26.931
中文字幕的文字幕
8:26.951–8:31.831
所以,因为我们分享这种语言,你会有这些三个组合的,
8:31.831–8:33.391
为了为了大家是这样的
8:33.391–8:34.724
plus they are aiming for
8:34.724–8:36.058
cultural export so they
8:36.058–8:37.391
aren't selling tickets
8:37.391–8:38.724
they don't take tips and
8:38.724–8:40.058
they don't insert ads in
8:40.058–8:41.058
that way it's even
8:41.058–8:42.258
better we used to talk
8:42.258–8:44.058
about user pays but here the user
8:44.058–8:45.124
doesn't have to pay
8:45.124–8:46.191
which makes it more
8:46.191–8:47.591
accessible and they gain
8:47.591–8:49.458
traffic instead they profit from
8:49.458–8:50.791
traffic they don't need
8:50.791–8:51.991
your money because ad
8:51.991–8:53.191
revenue is enough for
8:53.191–8:54.511
them yeah it's not that
8:54.511–8:55.666
they're doing it at a
8:55.666–8:56.889
loss but that i have ad
8:56.889–8:58.044
revenue i don't need
8:58.044–8:59.471
your money i earn from the
8:59.471–9:02.351
它是像我们买一批的
9:02.351–9:04.711
它是很便宜的
9:04.711–9:05.551
但它是很便宜的
9:05.551–9:08.071
它是费用的
9:08.071–9:08.571
它是费用的
9:08.571–9:09.711
它是费用的
9:09.711–9:10.871
你不能买的
9:10.871–9:12.431
因为它不会印刷
9:12.431–9:12.991
它是不刷的
9:12.991–9:13.871
它是费用的
9:13.871–9:14.551
如果费用的
9:14.551–9:15.071
它是费用的
9:15.071–9:15.711
它是费用的
9:15.711–9:16.711
它是费用的
9:16.711–9:17.511
它是费用的
9:17.511–9:18.711
所以它是费用的
9:18.711–9:19.871
所以你必须费
9:19.871–9:20.591
他们费用的
9:20.591–9:21.591
然后他们费用的
9:21.591–9:22.391
费用的
9:22.391–9:23.071
那是他们费用的
9:23.071–9:24.271
费用的
9:24.271–9:24.771
费用的
9:24.771–9:25.271
大家好
9:25.271–9:26.151
我设计
9:26.151–9:27.151
我设计
9:27.151–9:28.684
with the pressures of life,
9:28.684–9:30.084
insomnia and light sleep
9:30.084–9:31.351
are common worries for
9:31.351–9:32.218
modern people.
9:32.218–9:34.151
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9:39.884–9:41.018
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great formula
0:00.000–0:00.800
enThe market was
The market was
0:00.800–0:02.667
enoriginally expecting a rate cut,
originally expecting a rate cut,
0:02.667–0:04.000
enbut the Federal Reserve
but the Federal Reserve
0:04.000–0:05.267
enultimately decided to
ultimately decided to
0:05.267–0:06.800
enresume rate hikes instead,
resume rate hikes instead,
0:06.800–0:08.000
enbecause they have now
because they have now
0:08.000–0:09.467
endecided not to heed Trump.
decided not to heed Trump.
0:09.467–0:10.400
enOn September 16,
On September 16,
0:10.400–0:12.733
enthe Fed announced a rate hike of one notch,
the Fed announced a rate hike of one notch,
0:12.733–0:14.133
enwhich is 25 basis points,
which is 25 basis points,
0:14.133–0:15.400
enbringing the interest
bringing the interest
0:15.400–0:17.000
enrate to between 3.75% and 4%.
rate to between 3.75% and 4%.
0:17.000–0:17.600
enOf course,
Of course,
0:17.600–0:18.200
enthis time,
this time,
0:18.200–0:19.467
enFed Chair Walsh stated
Fed Chair Walsh stated
0:19.467–0:20.600
enthat the rate hike is
that the rate hike is
0:20.600–0:21.867
enbased on an assessment
based on an assessment
0:21.867–0:23.200
enof the current economy,
of the current economy,
0:23.200–0:23.933
enemployment,
employment,
0:23.933–0:25.267
enand economic strength,
and economic strength,
0:25.267–0:26.733
enand is not market-driven.
and is not market-driven.
0:30.560–0:33.520
zh而川普也提出了更多的期待在最后期的年代
而川普也提出了更多的期待在最后期的年代
0:35.760–0:40.800
zh在这个决定,川普总是否认为川普总是否认为川普总是
在这个决定,川普总是否认为川普总是否认为川普总是
0:40.800–0:45.760
zh川普总是川普总是川普总是川普总是一种高的,
川普总是川普总是川普总是川普总是一种高的,
0:45.760–0:47.600
zh而川普总是川普总是最高的
而川普总是川普总是最高的
0:47.600–0:51.180
zh但是,除了中共的股票,
但是,除了中共的股票,
0:51.180–0:53.740
zh川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
0:53.740–0:56.820
zh川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
川普总统的股票是在股票上升级,
0:56.820–1:01.160
zh在股票上升级了其他股票上升级,
在股票上升级了其他股票上升级,
1:01.160–1:05.260
zh但估计,川普总统的股票上升级5%,
但估计,川普总统的股票上升级5%,
1:05.260–1:07.900
zh上升级最高的位置在2007,
上升级最高的位置在2007,
1:07.900–1:10.240
zh所以川普总统是在股票上升级,
所以川普总统是在股票上升级,
1:10.240–1:13.040
zh但它可能是股票上升级现在。
但它可能是股票上升级现在。
1:13.040–1:14.400
zh请我问一下,总统的总统?
请我问一下,总统的总统?
1:14.400–1:15.935
enonce you raise interest
once you raise interest
1:15.935–1:17.394
enrates money flows back
rates money flows back
1:17.394–1:19.620
enbecause interest rates are higher
because interest rates are higher
1:19.620–1:20.759
ennaturally the stock
naturally the stock
1:20.759–1:21.966
enmarket will cool down
market will cool down
1:21.966–1:23.440
enbecause the money has left
because the money has left
1:23.440–1:25.373
enfleeing the stock market
fleeing the stock market
1:25.373–1:27.030
enonce the stock market
once the stock market
1:27.030–1:29.240
encools down as everyone knows
cools down as everyone knows
1:29.240–1:30.520
eneveryone's personal
everyone's personal
1:30.520–1:31.871
eninflation what we call
inflation what we call
1:31.871–1:33.720
enit will decrease although that
it will decrease although that
1:33.720–1:35.187
enpressure doesn't usually
pressure doesn't usually
1:35.187–1:36.653
enpass through immediately
pass through immediately
1:36.653–1:37.920
enmy salary isn't rising
my salary isn't rising
1:37.920–1:39.320
enas fast as prices so i
as fast as prices so i
1:39.320–1:41.960
enfeel like the money i earn is just
feel like the money i earn is just
1:41.960–1:42.560
ennotenough
notenough
1:42.560–1:43.720
enthat's how it is
that's how it is
1:43.720–1:45.492
enyour overall government
your overall government
1:45.492–1:46.841
enapproval rating is
approval rating is
1:46.841–1:48.360
enrelatively affected
relatively affected
1:48.360–1:50.360
enso these things are interconnected
so these things are interconnected
1:50.360–1:51.227
enif you cut rates
if you cut rates
1:51.227–1:52.093
enmoney flows out
money flows out
1:52.093–1:53.627
enheating up the stock market
heating up the stock market
1:53.627–1:54.493
enwith more money
with more money
1:54.493–1:56.227
enreal estate becomes expensive
real estate becomes expensive
1:56.227–1:57.493
enand prices go up as well
and prices go up as well
1:57.493–1:58.493
enonce they are high
once they are high
1:58.493–2:00.360
eneveryone suffers from inflation
everyone suffers from inflation
2:00.360–2:02.760
enespecially the middle and working classes
especially the middle and working classes
2:02.760–2:05.160
enblue collar and white collar workers alike
blue collar and white collar workers alike
2:05.160–2:06.827
eneveryone finds it unbearable
everyone finds it unbearable
2:06.827–2:08.093
enand if your government
and if your government
2:08.093–2:09.560
enis approaching elections
is approaching elections
2:09.560–2:11.160
enyou have to consider all this
you have to consider all this
2:11.160–2:12.293
ennow regarding the u.
now regarding the u.
2:12.293–2:12.793
ens.
s.
2:12.793–2:13.593
ennational debt
national debt
2:13.593–2:15.660
enit has already surpassed 40 trillion
it has already surpassed 40 trillion
2:15.660–2:17.660
enso you need to offer treasury yields
so you need to offer treasury yields
2:17.660–2:18.260
enotherwise
otherwise
2:18.260–2:19.793
eneveryone will dump US bonds
everyone will dump US bonds
2:19.793–2:21.193
ento keep them from selling
to keep them from selling
2:21.193–2:22.193
enI have to raise the
I have to raise the
2:22.193–2:23.527
eninterest rates on these
interest rates on these
2:23.527–2:24.793
enbonds just a little bit
bonds just a little bit
2:24.793–2:26.260
enbut you have to pay for that
but you have to pay for that
2:26.260–2:27.527
enand you need to realize
and you need to realize
2:27.527–2:29.593
enif the 10-year treasury yield is at 5%
if the 10-year treasury yield is at 5%
2:29.593–2:31.327
enand you have 40 trillion in debt
and you have 40 trillion in debt
2:31.327–2:33.527
enjust think about multiplying that by 5%
just think about multiplying that by 5%
2:33.527–2:35.060
enyou'd have to pay 2 trillion
you'd have to pay 2 trillion
2:35.060–2:36.393
enjust for the interest on
just for the interest on
2:36.393–2:38.393
enthe national debt every single year
the national debt every single year
2:38.393–2:40.527
enit's just like what we said about japan
it's just like what we said about japan
2:40.527–2:42.727
enjapan's national debt is also very high
japan's national debt is also very high
2:42.727–2:44.860
eneveryone calculates it differently,
everyone calculates it differently,
2:44.860–2:46.060
enbut my figure is 220%.
but my figure is 220%.
2:46.060–2:46.860
enSome say 260%,
Some say 260%,
2:46.860–2:48.327
ensaying it's not that high,
saying it's not that high,
2:48.327–2:50.668
enbut 220% is 220% of your entire GDP,
but 220% is 220% of your entire GDP,
2:50.668–2:53.631
enso you have to see if that's sustainable.
so you have to see if that's sustainable.
2:53.631–2:55.200
enJapan is the highest,
Japan is the highest,
2:55.460–2:58.464
enwhile the US hasn't reached over 200% yet.
while the US hasn't reached over 200% yet.
2:58.464–2:59.494
enThe US is only,
The US is only,
2:59.494–3:00.181
enit seems,
it seems,
3:00.181–3:01.640
enjust a bit over 100%.
just a bit over 100%.
3:01.640–3:03.694
enIt's not even half of Japan's level.
It's not even half of Japan's level.
3:03.694–3:04.789
enBut the problem is,
But the problem is,
3:04.789–3:06.500
enif everyone decides to dump US
if everyone decides to dump US
3:06.500–3:11.660
zh现在,你会知道,中国的印象,原来,中国的1.1 trillion,
现在,你会知道,中国的印象,原来,中国的1.1 trillion,
3:12.200–3:15.460
zh他们是保持美国的美国,现在他们只有一些钱,
他们是保持美国的美国,现在他们只有一些钱,
3:15.460–3:18.620
zh他们只有一半半的钱,因为, well,为什么?
他们只有一半半的钱,因为, well,为什么?
3:18.760–3:19.940
zh因为,因为,大家是在负责的,
因为,因为,大家是在负责的,
3:19.940–3:21.140
enSome might be selling
Some might be selling
3:21.140–3:22.473
enbonds to invest in other
bonds to invest in other
3:22.473–3:24.473
eninfrastructure projects instead.
infrastructure projects instead.
3:24.473–3:26.873
enWhy would I definitely have to buy US bonds?
Why would I definitely have to buy US bonds?
3:26.873–3:28.740
enSecondly, buying gold is better.
Secondly, buying gold is better.
3:28.740–3:30.873
enIf you default on the US dollar one day,
If you default on the US dollar one day,
3:30.873–3:32.540
enwho am I supposed to ask for it?
who am I supposed to ask for it?
3:32.540–3:33.873
enThat situation exists.
That situation exists.
3:33.873–3:35.673
enLook at the Russia-Ukraine war.
Look at the Russia-Ukraine war.
3:35.673–3:37.807
enRussia's assets were frozen by the US.
Russia's assets were frozen by the US.
3:37.807–3:39.607
enSo why should I buy your dollars?
So why should I buy your dollars?
3:39.607–3:41.207
enSo there are interconnected
So there are interconnected
3:41.207–3:42.407
enrelationships here.
relationships here.
3:44.040–3:45.173
enI think about the Fed
I think about the Fed
3:45.173–3:46.440
ennow wanting to buy back
now wanting to buy back
3:46.440–3:47.240
enits own bonds,
its own bonds,
3:47.240–3:48.307
enmuch like a company
much like a company
3:48.307–3:49.773
enbuying back its own stock,
buying back its own stock,
3:49.773–3:51.440
enwhich we call treasury stock.
which we call treasury stock.
3:51.500–3:52.700
enYou're using your own
You're using your own
3:52.700–3:54.167
enmoney to buy your own debt.
money to buy your own debt.
3:54.167–3:55.300
enIt's the same thing.
It's the same thing.
3:57.360–3:57.860
enHmm.
Hmm.
3:58.260–3:59.460
enSo, I don't think that
So, I don't think that
3:59.460–4:00.927
enwill solve the root cause,
will solve the root cause,
4:00.927–4:01.427
enwill it?
will it?
4:01.520–4:03.563
enI think it's just a temporary fix,
I think it's just a temporary fix,
4:03.563–4:04.220
ennot a cure.
not a cure.
4:04.560–4:06.160
enIt only treats the symptoms.
It only treats the symptoms.
4:06.160–4:07.093
enTo truly cure it,
To truly cure it,
4:07.093–4:08.960
enyou have to get the economy right.
you have to get the economy right.
4:09.020–4:09.520
enHmm.
Hmm.
4:09.540–4:11.540
enCurrently, the economy is not good,
Currently, the economy is not good,
4:11.620–4:13.887
enand there's a persistent trade deficit,
and there's a persistent trade deficit,
4:13.887–4:15.487
enconstantly buying too much,
constantly buying too much,
4:15.487–4:17.420
enmeaning your money is flowing out.
meaning your money is flowing out.
4:17.420–4:18.487
enIf that's the case,
If that's the case,
4:18.487–4:20.687
enthe entire job market will be affected,
the entire job market will be affected,
4:20.687–4:22.953
enbecause I keep buying things from abroad
because I keep buying things from abroad
4:22.953–4:24.287
enso my domestic industry
so my domestic industry
4:24.287–4:25.620
endoesn't need to produce
doesn't need to produce
4:25.620–4:27.287
enbecause everything is bought
because everything is bought
4:27.287–4:28.687
enimported goods are cheap
imported goods are cheap
4:28.687–4:30.887
enwhile your own production is expensive
while your own production is expensive
4:30.887–4:33.087
enif you look at the industrial structure
if you look at the industrial structure
4:33.087–4:34.487
enAmerican workers' wages
American workers' wages
4:34.487–4:35.753
enare 6 times higher than
are 6 times higher than
4:35.753–4:37.087
enthose in mainland China
those in mainland China
4:37.087–4:38.553
en$10,000 in mainland China
$10,000 in mainland China
4:38.553–4:40.220
enwhile the US is $60,000 a month
while the US is $60,000 a month
4:40.220–4:41.287
enthe ratio is 6 times
the ratio is 6 times
4:41.287–4:41.887
en5 to 6 times
5 to 6 times
4:41.887–4:42.387
enum
um
4:42.387–4:43.053
enin that case
in that case
4:43.053–4:44.987
enyour costs are naturally very high
your costs are naturally very high
4:44.987–4:46.587
enbecause you have labor costs
because you have labor costs
4:46.587–4:47.500
enmaterial costs
material costs
4:47.500–4:49.367
enand then the costs for facilities
and then the costs for facilities
5:19.180–5:22.180
zh沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入。
沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入,沒有收入。
5:23.180–5:26.180
zh並且有5萬人入了10分鐘,
並且有5萬人入了10分鐘,
5:27.180–5:32.180
zh與10分的評價超過12.3萬人超過500萬人的評價。
與10分的評價超過12.3萬人超過500萬人的評價。
5:33.180–5:37.180
zh所以,《People's Daily》給了一讚並且指定了三個提供,
所以,《People's Daily》給了一讚並且指定了三個提供,
5:38.180–5:41.180
zh指出這演出的創作為了一種感情的感情,
指出這演出的創作為了一種感情的感情,
5:42.180–5:43.180
zh成為了一種感情,
成為了一種感情,
5:44.180–5:45.180
zh成為了一種感情,
成為了一種感情,
5:45.180–5:46.513
enwilling to contribute,
willing to contribute,
5:46.513–5:47.913
enand a responsibility for
and a responsibility for
5:47.913–5:49.713
encarrying on the cultural torch.
carrying on the cultural torch.
5:49.860–5:50.360
enRight,
Right,
5:50.360–5:52.227
enbut let me introduce this person,
but let me introduce this person,
5:52.227–5:52.760
enDao Leng,
Dao Leng,
5:52.760–5:53.493
ento everyone.
to everyone.
5:54.640–5:55.441
enBack in 2023,
Back in 2023,
5:55.441–5:56.751
enhe had a song that took
he had a song that took
5:56.751–5:58.134
enthe internet by storm,
the internet by storm,
5:58.134–6:00.900
enand Dao Leng's popularity surged once again.
and Dao Leng's popularity surged once again.
6:01.860–6:02.993
enHe held many meet and
He held many meet and
6:02.993–6:04.927
engreet tours and sat down with fans,
greet tours and sat down with fans,
6:04.927–6:05.727
enbut in the end,
but in the end,
6:05.727–6:08.060
enhe didn't choose to stay in the spotlight.
he didn't choose to stay in the spotlight.
6:08.060–6:12.780
zh他一旦的一群人在山上的城市中的群人
他一旦的一群人在山上的城市中的群人
6:12.780–6:15.300
zh在海外的群人中的歌曲
在海外的群人中的歌曲
6:15.300–6:17.980
zh在海外的群人中的歌曲
在海外的群人中的歌曲
6:19.780–6:23.500
zh所以,这一场演唱会很大多人
所以,这一场演唱会很大多人
6:23.500–6:24.580
zh问 Jun
问 Jun
6:25.940–6:28.540
zh我说,这些人在中国的东西
我说,这些人在中国的东西
6:28.540–6:31.100
zh我们说的,像《Black Myth》
我们说的,像《Black Myth》
6:31.100–6:32.420
en《Wukong Asterisk》
《Wukong Asterisk》
6:32.420–6:33.540
zh或者其他人的电影
或者其他人的电影
6:33.540–6:36.700
zh我们看,包括韩国电影
我们看,包括韩国电影
6:36.700–6:37.700
zh日本人的劇情
日本人的劇情
6:37.700–6:40.220
zh不忘了那些中国人的劇情
不忘了那些中国人的劇情
6:40.220–6:42.180
zh而且因为
而且因为
6:42.180–6:43.780
zh因为他们都有一个文化
因为他们都有一个文化
6:43.780–6:45.660
zh大家是熟悉的
大家是熟悉的
6:45.660–6:46.160
zh我说
我说
6:46.160–6:48.020
zh我没看《Journey to the West》
我没看《Journey to the West》
6:48.020–6:49.300
zh如果您没看过
如果您没看过
6:49.300–6:50.180
zh你听到它
你听到它
6:50.180–6:53.020
zh大家喜欢《Journey to the West》
大家喜欢《Journey to the West》
6:53.020–6:54.100
zh都在《Demons》
都在《Demons》
6:54.100–6:54.860
en《Monsters》
《Monsters》
6:54.860–6:55.860
en《Zubaji》
《Zubaji》
6:55.860–6:57.220
zh大家已经有了
大家已经有了
6:57.220–6:59.100
zh所以很容易追求
所以很容易追求
6:59.100–7:01.420
zh但如果一旅人看过
但如果一旅人看过
7:01.420–7:02.460
zh他们会问
他们会问
7:02.460–7:04.100
zh为什么会有这么大
为什么会有这么大
7:04.100–7:08.820
zh或是,那些人的戒指是,你必须解解一下
或是,那些人的戒指是,你必须解解一下
7:08.820–7:13.060
zh他们不可能是沙烏军,或是沙烏军的戒指
他们不可能是沙烏军,或是沙烏军的戒指
7:27.551–7:28.778
enif you pay attention
if you pay attention
7:28.778–7:29.861
enyou'll see why the
you'll see why the
7:29.861–7:31.233
ensettings in dramas are
settings in dramas are
7:31.233–7:32.244
enso vivid like 10,
so vivid like 10,
7:32.244–7:33.471
en000 horses charging
000 horses charging
7:33.471–7:34.832
enpart of it is AI and
part of it is AI and
7:34.832–7:36.465
enpart is animation you
part is animation you
7:36.465–7:38.007
encan tell you can tell
can tell you can tell
7:38.007–7:39.731
enbut a large part of it is
but a large part of it is
7:39.731–7:40.835
enactually real life
actually real life
7:40.835–7:42.077
enlocations it's not an
locations it's not an
7:42.077–7:43.457
enanimated backdrop it's
animated backdrop it's
7:43.457–7:45.251
enreal scenery and that's what's
real scenery and that's what's
7:45.251–7:46.652
enattractive because if
attractive because if
7:46.652–7:48.127
enthey need the forbidden
they need the forbidden
7:48.127–7:49.307
encity they have it if
city they have it if
7:49.307–7:51.151
enthey need a moat they have it if
they need a moat they have it if
7:51.151–7:52.399
enthey need a city gate
they need a city gate
7:52.399–7:53.794
entower they have it they
tower they have it they
7:53.794–7:54.675
enhave all those
have all those
7:54.675–7:56.217
enbackground resources to
background resources to
7:56.217–7:56.951
enuse both the
use both the
7:56.951–8:26.931
zh中文字幕的文字幕
中文字幕的文字幕
8:26.951–8:31.831
zh所以,因为我们分享这种语言,你会有这些三个组合的,
所以,因为我们分享这种语言,你会有这些三个组合的,
8:31.831–8:33.391
zh为了为了大家是这样的
为了为了大家是这样的
8:33.391–8:34.724
enplus they are aiming for
plus they are aiming for
8:34.724–8:36.058
encultural export so they
cultural export so they
8:36.058–8:37.391
enaren't selling tickets
aren't selling tickets
8:37.391–8:38.724
enthey don't take tips and
they don't take tips and
8:38.724–8:40.058
enthey don't insert ads in
they don't insert ads in
8:40.058–8:41.058
enthat way it's even
that way it's even
8:41.058–8:42.258
enbetter we used to talk
better we used to talk
8:42.258–8:44.058
enabout user pays but here the user
about user pays but here the user
8:44.058–8:45.124
endoesn't have to pay
doesn't have to pay
8:45.124–8:46.191
enwhich makes it more
which makes it more
8:46.191–8:47.591
enaccessible and they gain
accessible and they gain
8:47.591–8:49.458
entraffic instead they profit from
traffic instead they profit from
8:49.458–8:50.791
entraffic they don't need
traffic they don't need
8:50.791–8:51.991
enyour money because ad
your money because ad
8:51.991–8:53.191
enrevenue is enough for
revenue is enough for
8:53.191–8:54.511
enthem yeah it's not that
them yeah it's not that
8:54.511–8:55.666
enthey're doing it at a
they're doing it at a
8:55.666–8:56.889
enloss but that i have ad
loss but that i have ad
8:56.889–8:58.044
enrevenue i don't need
revenue i don't need
8:58.044–8:59.471
enyour money i earn from the
your money i earn from the
8:59.471–9:02.351
zh它是像我们买一批的
它是像我们买一批的
9:02.351–9:04.711
zh它是很便宜的
它是很便宜的
9:04.711–9:05.551
zh但它是很便宜的
但它是很便宜的
9:05.551–9:08.071
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:08.071–9:08.571
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:08.571–9:09.711
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:09.711–9:10.871
zh你不能买的
你不能买的
9:10.871–9:12.431
zh因为它不会印刷
因为它不会印刷
9:12.431–9:12.991
zh它是不刷的
它是不刷的
9:12.991–9:13.871
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:13.871–9:14.551
zh如果费用的
如果费用的
9:14.551–9:15.071
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:15.071–9:15.711
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:15.711–9:16.711
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:16.711–9:17.511
zh它是费用的
它是费用的
9:17.511–9:18.711
zh所以它是费用的
所以它是费用的
9:18.711–9:19.871
zh所以你必须费
所以你必须费
9:19.871–9:20.591
zh他们费用的
他们费用的
9:20.591–9:21.591
zh然后他们费用的
然后他们费用的
9:21.591–9:22.391
zh费用的
费用的
9:22.391–9:23.071
zh那是他们费用的
那是他们费用的
9:23.071–9:24.271
zh费用的
费用的
9:24.271–9:24.771
zh费用的
费用的
9:24.771–9:25.271
zh大家好
大家好
9:25.271–9:26.151
zh我设计
我设计
9:26.151–9:27.151
zh我设计
我设计
9:27.151–9:28.684
enwith the pressures of life,
with the pressures of life,
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eninsomnia and light sleep
insomnia and light sleep
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enare common worries for
are common worries for
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enmodern people.
modern people.
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enSunshine Kefir Probiotics has now
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enlaunched an advanced
launched an advanced
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engood night version,
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enadding ashwagandha,
adding ashwagandha,
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entryptophan,
tryptophan,
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entheanine,
theanine,
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enand lemon balm,
and lemon balm,
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enfour natural herbs.
four natural herbs.
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enChoose Sunshine Kefir
Choose Sunshine Kefir
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enProbiotics for your
Probiotics for your
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endaily maintenance,
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enkeeping your body
keeping your body
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enburden-free and making
burden-free and making
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enevery kefir moment a great one.
every kefir moment a great one.
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enGood felt, feel good.
Good felt, feel good.
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enPlease visit WhoIDN to
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enorder for your health
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enand enter the referral
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encode for an extra discount.
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enSunshine Kefir
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enProbiotics Basic Version
Probiotics Basic Version
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enand Goodnight Version
and Goodnight Version
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enNewly redesigned
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enpackaging with the same
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engreat formula
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影片筆記：無視川普施壓 Fed突升息1碼順應三大變化!貝森特救美債慘碰壁 殖利率越救越高衝破5%|【全球大視野】精華版 @全球大視野Global_Vision

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一句話總結

聯準會（Fed）違背市場預期升息 25 個基點至 3.75%-4%，講者分析此舉基於經濟評估而非市場驅動，並深入探討美國 40 兆國債的利息危機、地緣政治對美債信任的影響，以及藝人 Dao Leng 結合 AI 與真實場景進行文化輸出的商業模式。

核心重點

  • Fed 升息決策：Fed 原定降息，最終決定升息 25 個基點，利率區間調整至 3.75%-4%。Fed 主席 Walsh 聲明此決定基於對經濟、就業與經濟強度的評估，而非市場驅動。
  • 利率與資產流動：升息導致資金回流，股市降溫；降息則導致資金流出，推高股市與房地產價格，加劇中產與勞工階層的通膨壓力。個人通膨感下降是因為薪資漲幅落後物價。
  • 美國國債危機：美國國債已超過 40 兆美元。若 10 年期國債殖利率為 5%，年利息支出達 2 兆美元。講者指出需提高國債殖利率以防拋售，但需承擔高昂利息成本。
  • 國際債務與地緣政治：日本國債/GDP 比率約 220%，美國未超過 200%（約 100% 多）。中國持有美國國債減少（從 1.1 兆美元減半）。俄羅斯資產被凍結案例影響各國購買美元/美國國債的意願，資金轉向基礎設施項目或黃金投資。
  • Fed 買回債券分析：類比公司買回自家股票，但講者認為僅治標不治本，無法解決根本問題（貿易逆差、國內產業結構）。美國工資為中國大陸的 5-6 倍（$60,000 vs $10,000），導致成本高漲。
  • 文化輸出案例：藝人 Dao Leng 在 2023 年走紅，作品結合 AI、動畫與真實場景（故宮、護城河、城門等），內容基於《西遊記》等熟悉文化元素。商業模式依靠流量與廣告營收，目標為文化輸出，降低觀眾門檻。

詳細大綱

一、聯準會（Fed）政策與利率調整

  • 預期與現實的落差：市場預期降息，但 Fed 最終決定升息 25 個基點（Basis Points）。
  • 利率區間調整：調整至 3.75% 至 4%。
  • 決策依據：Fed 主席 Walsh 聲明，基於經濟、就業與經濟強度的評估，非市場驅動。
  • 政治背景：提及川普（Trump）與 Fed 的關係及川普的期待。

二、利率變動對經濟與資產的影響

  • 升息效應：導致資金回流，股市降溫。
  • 降息效應：導致資金流出，推高股市與房地產價格，加劇中產與勞工階層的通膨壓力。
  • 個人通膨感：個人通膨感下降，原因是薪資漲幅落後物價。

三、美國國債與財政危機

  • 國債規模：美國國債已超過 40 兆美元。
  • 利息負擔：若 10 年期國債殖利率為 5%，年利息支出達 2 兆美元。
  • 殖利率悖論：需提高國債殖利率以防拋售，但需承擔高昂利息成本。

四、國際債務與地緣政治比較

  • 債務比率對比：日本國債/GDP 比率約 220%（講者數據），美國未超過 200%（約 100% 多）。
  • 中國持有美債變化：中國持有美國國債減少，從 1.1 兆美元減半。
  • 地緣政治影響：俄羅斯資產被凍結案例影響各國購買美元/美國國債的意願。
  • 資金流向：資金轉向基礎設施項目或黃金投資。

五、聯準會買回債券（Treasury Stock）分析

  • 類比概念：類比公司買回自家股票。
  • 講者觀點：僅治標不治本，無法解決根本問題（貿易逆差、國內產業結構）。
  • 成本結構問題：美國工資為中國大陸的 5-6 倍（$60,000 vs $10,000），導致成本高漲。

六、文化輸出與藝人 Dao Leng

  • 藝人背景：藝人 Dao Leng 在 2023 年走紅，舉辦見面會。
  • 作品特點：結合 AI、動畫與真實場景（故宮、護城河、城門等）。
  • 內容基礎：基於《西遊記》（Journey to the West）等熟悉文化元素。
  • 商業模式：不賣門票、不收小費、不插廣告，依靠流量與廣告營收（Ad revenue）。
  • 目標：文化輸出，降低觀眾門檻。

七、產品廣告

  • 產品名稱：Sunshine Kefir Probiotics（益生菌）。
  • 產品版本：推出「Good Night Version」（好眠版）。
  • 添加成分：南非醉伽（Ashwagandha）、色氨酸（Tryptophan）、茶氨酸（Theanine）、檸檬香蜂草（Lemon balm）。
  • 促銷資訊：透過 WhoIDN 訂購，輸入推薦碼享折扣。

工具 / 模型 / 名詞整理

  • Fed / Federal Reserve：聯準會
  • Trump：川普
  • Walsh：Fed 主席（講者稱呼）
  • US Bonds / Treasury Yields：美國國債 / 國債殖利率
  • Japan：日本（用於債務比率對比）
  • Russia-Ukraine war：俄烏戰爭（用於資產凍結案例）
  • Dao Leng：講者提及的藝人名字
  • 《Black Myth》：講者提及的作品名稱
  • 《Wukong Asterisk》：講者提及的作品名稱
  • 《Journey to the West》：《西遊記》
  • 《Demons》：講者提及的作品/概念
  • 《Monsters》：講者提及的作品/概念
  • 《Zubaji》：講者提及的作品/概念（疑為「豬八戒」之聽寫）
  • Sunshine Kefir Probiotics：產品名稱
  • Basic Version：基礎版
  • Good Night Version：好眠版
  • Ashwagandha：南非醉伽
  • Tryptophan：色氨酸
  • Theanine：茶氨酸
  • Lemon balm：檸檬香蜂草
  • WhoIDN：訂購平台/網站名稱

操作流程整理

  • Fed 政策評估流程：評估經濟、就業與經濟強度 -> 決定是否升息/降息 -> 調整利率區間 -> 影響資金流動與資產價格。
  • Dao Leng 內容創作流程：結合 AI 技術 -> 使用真實場景（故宮、護城河等） -> 改編《西遊記》等文化元素 -> 發布作品 -> 透過流量獲取廣告營收。
  • 益生菌產品訂購流程：前往 WhoIDN 平台 -> 選擇產品（基礎版或好眠版） -> 輸入推薦碼 -> 享受折扣。

值得注意的限制或風險

  • Fed 買回債券的局限性：講者認為 Fed 買回自家債券僅治標不治本，無法解決貿易逆差與國內產業結構等根本問題。
  • 美國工資成本高漲：美國工資為中國大陸的 5-6 倍，導致成本高漲，影響競爭力。
  • 地緣政治對美債信任的影響：俄羅斯資產被凍結案例可能影響各國購買美元/美國國債的意願，導致資金轉向基礎設施項目或黃金投資。
  • 國債利息負擔：若 10 年期國債殖利率維持在 5%，年利息支出達 2 兆美元，需承擔高昂利息成本。

逐字稿辨識疑點

  • 「川普总是否认为川普总是否认为川普总是...」：逐字稿中出現大量重複與語意不通的片段，疑似語音辨識錯誤或講者口誤重複。
  • 「川普总统的股票是在股票上升级」：語意不明，「股票上升级」非標準經濟術語，可能為「股價上漲」或「指數上漲」之誤聽。
  • 「总统的总统?」：語意不明，疑似口誤或辨識錯誤。
  • 「中国的印象,原来,中国的1.1 trillion...」：「印象」一詞在此處語意不通，可能為「持有」或「印象」之誤聽，結合上下文應指中國持有美國國債的金額。
  • 「5万人入了10分钟...」：此段文字與前後文經濟/文化主題斷裂，且「入了10分鐘」語意不明，疑似錯誤插入或辨識混亂。
  • 「《People's Daily》給了一讚並且指定了三個提供」：「指定了三個提供」語意不明，可能為「點評」或「推薦」之誤聽。
  • 「沙烏军,或是沙烏军的戒指」：「沙烏军」與「戒指」在《西遊記》角色對應上語意不明，可能為「沙悟淨」或相關角色名稱之誤聽。
  • 「它是像我们买一批的...它是费用的...」：廣告部分出現大量重複的「它是费用的」、「它是费用的」，疑似語音辨識重複或講者口誤。
  • 「Good felt, feel good.」：產品口號，可能為「Good feel, feel good」或類似變體。

可延伸追問

  • Fed 升息 25 個基點後，對美國國內通膨與就業市場的具體影響為何？
  • 中國減少持有美國國債的原因是否與地緣政治風險評估有關？
  • 日本 220% 的債務/GDP 比率是否真的比美國更安全？其背後的支撐機制為何？
  • Dao Leng 的 AI 結合真實場景創作模式，是否可複製到其他文化領域？
  • Sunshine Kefir Probiotics 的「好眠版」成分組合，其科學依據與市場接受度如何？

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