{
  "text": "9月16號下午2點\n美國金融圈拋下了一顆重磅炸彈\n美聯儲公布最新的利率決議\n全票通過加息25個基點\n至3.75%到4%\n這是美聯儲時隔3年零2個月以來\n第一次決定加息\n之前大家都在賭它會降息\n或者是按兵不動\n但是美聯儲不按套路出牌\n按下了升息鍵\n馬上白宮就坐不住了\n川普在自己的社交媒體平臺上\n連發了好幾條帖子破口大駡他説\n美國的利率應該降到1%\n甚至是更低\n美聯儲這群人\n根本就是一群敵對我的政客\n他們正在做極其錯誤的事情\n他甚至給這次加息起了一個名字\n叫針對川普的加息\n言下之意\n這幫人加息\n純粹就是為了搞我\n你看\n這又出現了一個非常戲劇性的畫面\n一邊是掌控貨幣權的美聯儲\n全票通過強行加息\n一邊是掌控行政權的總統\n拍案而起\n指名道姓的大罵\n這是怎麼回事\n今天的25分鐘\n我們就來聊聊大夥最關心的幾個懸念\n美聯儲為什麼在這個時候\n頂著總統的壓力\n也要加息\n他真的是在跟白宮賭氣嗎\n而川普又為什麼這麼的惱火\n他說的1%的低利率\n是出於什麼樣的角度\n美聯儲能按他說的辦嗎\n最後\n美元加息\n總統和美聯儲由來已久的矛盾\n會如何影響\n你手中的股票\n房貸和錢包\n我們先從一個很多人都沒有注意到的\n技術細節講起\n這一輪貨幣政策\n是一個在現代央行史上\n極其罕見的軌跡\n你可以想像一條山路\n2022年3月\n面對疫情後放水的後遺症\n斷裂的供應鏈和俄烏衝突\n美國的CPI一度逼近10%\n於是美聯儲開始拼命爬坡\n連續11次加息\n把利率從接近零的水平\n一路拉到了5.25%到5.5%\n創下20年新高\n爬到山頂之後\n是整整一年的高位平臺期\n這一年的口號叫做\nHigher for Longer\n就是將高利率維持更長的時間\n等高利率把通脹壓回2%\n同時防止太早降息\n讓通脹捲土重來\n然後\n到了2024年9月\n眼看著通脹降溫\n就業放緩\n美聯儲於是啟動降息\n而且是以50個基點的大動作開場\n從那個時候一直到2025年的12月\n連砍6刀\n把利率降到了3.5%到3.75%\n那個時候美聯儲的態度非常明確\n通脹仗打贏了\n接下來要保經濟的軟著陸\n然而\n進入到今年\n關稅滲漏\n地緣衝突把油價重新抬高\n通脹開始死灰復燃\n今年的前5次議息會議\n美聯儲踩住剎車\n按兵不動\n但是時間越久\n他這心裡就越打鼓\n之前的6刀\n是不是砍急了\n終於\n昨天美聯儲做出了一個\n震驚全球市場的決定\n全票通過\n調頭加息\n把這條路線連起來看\n那就是連續加息\n高位懸停\n再連續降息\n停住觀望\n再重新加息\n這不是普通的週期\n這是金融學裡\n令人聞風喪膽的\n雙峰型週期\n也就是降完息之後\n再重新加息\n這有多麼罕見\n在過去40年的現代央行史上\n美聯儲只要開啟了降息大門\n基本都是一路降到底\n因為對於一家中央銀行來說\n降完再加\n是成本最高\n代價最重的一件事\n你想想看\n央行手裡最值錢的東西是什麼\n不是錢\n是他的信用\n是市場相信\n你說什麼就是什麼\n當美聯儲在2024年9月\n啟動降息的時候\n它等於向全世界發出了信號\n通脹的仗我打贏了\n接下來我要往寬鬆的方向走了\n所有人買房的\n發債的\n做企業投資決策的\n都是按照這個信號\n去安排未來幾年的錢\n現在他掉頭了\n等於公開承認\n對不起\n那個仗我可能還沒打完\n這一記耳光\n是響亮地打在它自己\n美聯儲的臉上\n而歷史上\n只有一個真正可比的先例\n那就是1980年的時候\n當時的美聯儲主席沃爾克\n面對兩位數的通脹\n先是把利率加到了接近20%\n他把利率往死裡加\n經濟立刻掉進衰退\n於是到當年的5月到7月\n他被迫大幅降息\n三個月之內猛降了850個基點\n可是通脹還在12%以上\n沃爾克被迫在當年\n二次重啟加息\n把利率推到創紀錄的21.5%\n那次的雙峰\n代價是美國經濟在三年內\n連續兩次掉進衰退\n失業率衝破10%\n這就是經濟學教科書裡\n那一個著名的雙底衰退\n所以當今天美聯儲\n再次走出這一個危險雙峰的形狀\n它內部的邏輯往往只有一條\n那就是第一輪我沒打乾淨\n通脹的根還在\n而這一次已經沒有退路了\n必須加息\n那麼一個疑問就出來了\n什麼樣的信號\n讓美聯儲寧可賭上信用\n也要強行打出這一記\n回馬槍呢\n通脹的指標是一個方面\n但是還有一個非常直觀的導火索\n那就是在剛剛過去的\n7月和8月發生的一件事情\n這件事情在中文報道裡並不多\n但是它是這一次加息\n真正的導火索\n我們把鏡頭拉回到8月13號\n那一天美國財政部\n是進行了一場例行的美債發售\n政府缺錢\n發債\n找市場借錢\n這本來是每個月都在發生的常規操作\n那一天美國要賣的\n是250億美元的\n30年期超長國債\n結果\n開標的那一刻\n華爾街是全場震顫了\n因為中標收益率\n中標收益率飆到了5.2%\n5.2%是什麼概念\n這是自2001年以來\n整整25年間\n美國政府為了借錢付出的\n最高代價\n創下了四分之一個世紀的新高\n而這更難看的細節\n還在幕後\n發售現場還出現了\n極其罕見的\n尾部利差\n什麼叫做尾部利差\n假設\n有一套二手房\n在拍賣\n中介估算\n這套房子應該能賣出100萬\n但是在當天\n買家們稀稀拉拉\n根本就沒有人願意出100萬\n拍賣官只得一路降價\n直到90萬\n才有人肯買\n這估算出來的100萬\n和最終撿漏成交的90萬之間的差距\n在金融圈裡\n就叫做尾部\n美國政府賣國債\n規則是荷蘭式拍賣\n那就是誰要求的利息低\n就先賣給誰\n如果沒人買\n政府就必須抬高這個利息\n直到把這批國債全部賣光為止\n所以尾部利差\n通俗的話來說\n就是美國政府在賣債的時候\n買家根本不買賬\n他們集體要求要更高的利息才入手\n政府為了籌到這筆錢\n把這批國債賣完\n不得不答應給買家支付更高的利息\n未來承諾用更多的錢來還\n那買家\n為什麼會集體要求更高的利息呢\n當然就是他們覺得\n風險在增大\n不看好這國債未來的收益\n5天之後\n果然出事了\n這一天30年期\n美債收益率直接失控\n狂飆到了5.334%\n衝破了2007年金融危機前的紀錄\n10年期美債收益率\n也被拉到了4.75%\n這裡\n我要先停下來\n用一分鐘的時間\n給朋友們解釋一個核心的原理\n因為不弄懂這一個\n接下來的問題\n可能會聽不明白\n而且也根本沒有辦法感覺到\n美聯儲當時\n得有多慌\n美債的價格和收益率\n就像是蹺蹺板的兩端\n價格越低\n收益率就越高\n你可以這麼理解\n假設你的手裡有一張債券\n面值100塊\n每年固定給你4塊錢的利息\n那你的年化收益率就是4%\n但是\n當所有人都在恐慌的拋售這樣的債券\n那它的價格就會暴跌\n然後一路跌到了80塊\n那新買進的人\n只需要花80塊就可以買入\n但是他依然能夠領到4塊錢的利息\n那他的實際回報率\n就從4%變成了5%\n所以記住\n收益率飆升\n本質上就是價格在暴跌\n是資金在奪路而逃\n而逃的可不是什麼小市場\n美國國債是全世界公認的無風險資產\n是整個國際金融體系的地基\n是所有資產定價的錨\n這個市場\n要出現恐慌性拋售\n相當於一棟大樓的承重牆\n開始出現裂縫了\n那麼是誰在暗中砸盤\n買家們又在害怕什麼呢\n其實財政部比誰都清楚出了大事\n8月19號的時候\n美國財政部坐不住了\n緊急拋出了兩份重磅數據\n第一份數據\n直接把這個遮羞布給撕了\n截至8月18日\n美國聯邦政府債務總額\n首次衝破了40萬億美元的大關\n朋友們\n對40萬億可能沒有什麼直觀的概念\n我給你幾個參照\n今年3月這個數字才剛剛突破39萬億\n所以就是不到5個月\n1萬億沒了\n過去一年\n美國國債平均每天\n會增加大約79億美元\n換算下來\n每一秒鐘\n美國國債會增加9.1萬美元\n更加要命的是另外兩個數字\n2026財年的前10個月\n政府赤字就已經達到了1.8萬億美元\n比去年一整年還要多\n而光是給這些債務還利息\n今年就要掏掉接近1.2萬億美元\n這比美國的國防預算還要高\n而這只是美國政府\n純粹為了去還舊賬的利息\n而付出去的錢\n為了救市\n財政部當天就宣布了第二件事\n開啟國債回購\n也就是政府自己下場\n掏錢去買回自己發出去的債\n充當買家給市場托底\n財政部長貝森特甚至暗示\n只要需要回購規模還可以擴大\n結果\n只撐了兩天\n8月21日\n30年期美債收益率再次失控\n重新飆到5.28%\n到了9月9日\n也就是美聯儲開會前一個星期\n30年期收益率再次升破5.30%\n財政部按照擴大之後的計劃\n第一次操作就要買入最多60億美元的長債\n而這個規模\n是它最初對外公布的20億的三倍\n用三倍的回購規模\n每天掃貨去買長債\n但是收益率還是紋絲不動\n這說明買家還在瘋狂跑路\n這到底是怎麼回事\n美債為什麼會出事\n為什麼這次財政部都按不住呢\n這幾個問題我們會一個一個拆解\n但是先暫時把目光從美國的賬本\n拉回到咱們自己的生活\n每到過節身邊總是有朋友問我\n送爸媽什麼好\n送衣服又怕不合身\n送紅包爸媽也不收\n送吃的又怕放著浪費他們不喜歡\n送禮這件事難的從來都不是花錢\n是送到心坎上\n正好我們的贊助廠商\nLucent Living藍莓優品\n推薦了中秋好禮紅海參養生膠\n給您一個參考\n我小的時候膝蓋是受過傷的\n平常沒什麼事\n但是上下樓多了\n偶爾就會有隱隱的不舒服的感覺\n所以我一直是比較注重保養我的膝蓋\n這一款產品我吃到現在已經差不多一盒了\n最近發現下樓的時候\n以前那種隱隱的不舒服的感覺\n確實是少了\n我查了一下\n這一款紅海參養生膠\n含有多鏈硫酸軟骨素和小分子膠原肽\n的確有助於維持關節的潤滑和軟骨的健康\n不過要提醒您\n這一款產品是營養品不是藥\n所以朋友該看醫生還是得看醫生\n吃之前也最好問一下您的醫生\n還有一個好消息\n現在是有中秋優惠活動的\n三款指定的中秋組合產品\n輸入我的優惠碼\n【zhenfei】就可以先享受到85折\n折後還可以再減25\n最後還會附贈超級實用的禮物\n一次性您就可以享受到三重優惠\n所以千萬不要錯過\n第一次嘗試或者是自己吃\n可以買團圓養生組優惠節省了125塊\n如果是給長輩的話\n就建議選這一個組合\n多50來塊\n但是紅海參從30支變成了這樣的大包裝60支\n差一倍的量\n中秋送禮也更拿得出手\n活動到9月30日結束\n組合的數量有限哦\n朋友們建議您早點下手\n鏈接就在節目下面的說明欄\n我們再說回來\n為什麼這次美債會出這樣的事\n而財政部壓都壓不住\n因為這次美債是被三把重錘給砸到起不來\n第一是通脹從外部復活了\n中東的戰火升級\n油價一路往上頂\n布倫特原油重新站上了每桶100元的位置\n9月中旬一度逼近110美元\n光這一項就貢獻了當月整體\n通脹漲幅的三分之一以上\n更狠的在柴油\n8月柴油價格環比暴漲了9.6%\n同比漲幅高達44%\n根據美國汽車協會的數據\n全美柴油均價較一年前漲了超過60%\n你要知道\n柴油可是整個美國物流和交通的工業血液\n我們在超市裡買的每一樣東西\n都是柴油車拉過去的\n柴油漲了60%\n意味著物流成本大漲\n意味著企業要提價對衝\n就意味著通脹會像水滲進海綿一樣滲進整條經濟鍊\n這就體現在8月的CPI上\n3.4%距離美聯儲2%的目標還差得遠\n第二在發債的競爭者\n一邊是政府為了填補1.8萬億的年度赤字\n需要不停的大規模的往市場上倒新債來借錢\n另外還有一個新的體量驚人的競爭者出現了\n那就是AI\n今年到目前為止\n美國的科技巨頭為了搞AI基礎設施建設\n已經發行了將近2200億美元的公司債\n而2025年一整年這個數字大約是1080億\n就說一年的時間他翻了一倍還有多\n而公司債給的利息比國債要高得多\n華爾街的買家們一看\nAI給的利息更香\n誰還去買美國政府的國債啊\n所以AI的融資狂潮\n就把原本屬於美國國債的買家給挖走了\n第三是需求端的老買家跑路了\n根據6月份最新的數據\n日本的美國國債減持了264億\n中國減持了259億\n英國減持了87億\n外國投資者短短幾個月\n是拋售了近1900億的美債\n但是黃金儲備卻在登頂\n到今年4月\n全球央行手裡的黃金儲備\n總價值達到了將近4萬億美元\n在人類歷史上\n是第一次超趕了美債\n成為全球第一大儲備資產\n所以就是通脹在漲\n發債在爆\n買家在跑\n這導致了一個讓美聯儲絕望和窒息的畫面\n朋友們注意聽下面這一組關鍵的數據\n從2024年9月到2025年底\n美聯儲連續降息6次\n一共降了175個基點\n但是這同一時期\n10年期的美債收益率\n卻只下行了36個基點\n而到了今天\n美聯儲的政策利率\n比降息之前低了150個基點\n可是10年期美債的收益率\n卻比降息前\n反而還高出了87個基點\n這就是美聯儲把降息的左轉方向盤\n猛打了175度\n結果車頭只偏了36度\n打到今天\n這車子不僅沒往左轉\n反而還往右邊跑了\n是不是\n很搞笑啊\n但是不但不搞笑\n對於業內人士來說\n反而很恐怖\n為什麼呢\n美聯儲能決定的是隔夜利率\n就是銀行之間借一天錢的價格\n但是真正決定老百姓房貸利率\n企業融資成本\n政府發新債成本的\n是10年期和30年期的國債收益率\n也就是說\n短端是美聯儲說了算的\n長端是市場說了算的\n美聯儲降息\n就好比中央水廠\n宣布下調自來水的出廠價格\n按照常理\n出廠價格一降\n終端農貿市場的菜價自然就跟著跌了\n美聯儲把官方的利率砍下來\n房貸和企業貸款成本也該跟著降\n但是在這過去一年裡\n我們剛剛說的兩組數字\n就是兩個荒謬的一幕\n第一階段\n就是往左轉\n它往右去了\n官方降息了\n市場的反應極其冷淡\n大家根本就不跟\n實際貸款成本幾乎沒怎麼降\n說明市場已經不買賬了\n第二階段\n就是官方降息150點\n這收益率不降\n反飆升了87點\n這就是最荒謬的地方了\n美聯儲明明在降息寬鬆\n但是居民買房的房貸利率\n企業貸款成本\n反而更貴了\n這說明什麼\n市場覺得\n我今天把錢借給你10年\n等你10年之後還我錢的時候\n這錢可能大幅縮水\n因為我不信沒有通脹\n所以不行\n我必須要收更高的利息\n來抵消未來的通脹風險\n這就是為什麼財政部發美債\n現在要用更高的利息去買\n這就是這場美債風暴真正的含義\n它並不是一次普通的市場波動\n它是債券市場\n對美聯儲的一次公開脅迫\n用金融市場的語言來說\n就是你不加\n我替你加\n那川普為什麼要一直嚷嚷著降息呢\n他又是什麼樣的角度呢\n前面我們說\n美國現在背著40萬億美元的債務\n今年光是要支付的債務利息\n就是1.2萬億美元\n這筆錢比一年的國防預算還要高\n而且隨著舊債到期換新債\n利息的雪球還在越滾越大\n川普的角度很好理解\n我這邊拼命給你拉投資\n搞關稅\n經濟確實增長了\n你美聯儲憑什麼把這利率開的這麼高\n你這不是在稀釋我的經濟增長嗎\n因為利息高了\n就沖抵了部分經濟的增長\n要是能夠把這利率降到1%\n刺激股市和實體經濟不說\n政府還可以一年省下幾千億的利息\n用這個經濟增長\n來逐漸的把債務稀釋掉\n不好嗎\n這個聽起來非常有道理\n朋友們\n您覺得川普說的有道理嗎\n覺得有道理的\n點個讚告訴我\n你可能會想\n川普關注的是赤字問題\n美聯儲考慮的更多是通脹問題\n赤字和通脹\n哪個更重要呢\n哪個重要解決哪個不就行了嗎\n哪個問題\n更加緊迫\n更危險\n它們的區別\n在於這個病理的屬性不同\n赤字是高血壓一樣的慢性病\n它拖久了確實會要命\n但是它留了時間窗口\n解決它可能花上個幾年\n甚至幾十年\n靠提升經濟增速\n改革稅制\n削減政府開支\n都可以慢慢調理\n更何況\n治這個病\n是需要國會立法的\n美聯儲根本沒有這個手術刀\n而通脹\n則是心梗發作一樣的急性病\n一旦發生\n它可能會在短短幾個月內\n就擊穿貨幣信用\n摧毀老百姓的購買力\n美聯儲手裡的工具箱\n就是爲救急用的\n所以這兩個的深層病理屬性不同\n那還有更深的邏輯在於\n如果放任這個急性病發作\n慢性病可能會無藥可救\n為什麼\n一旦市場認定通脹失控\n全球投資者就會要求更高的風險溢價\n所以收益率\n10年期30年期的收益率\n一定會水漲船高\n到時候\n所有新發行的國債\n都得按照更高的利率去定價\n這就意味著\n政府未來要償還的利息會更高\n赤字就會被不斷沉重的利息\n越推越高\n經濟增速也會被高昂的借貸成本拖垮\n所以這兩件事的順序\n就得是要先守住這個物價\n才有可能去談低利率\n但是話又說回來\n川普強調的赤字危機\n確實是美聯儲\n乃至美國政府\n避不開的房間裡的大象\n站在美聯儲的視角\n沒有物價的穩定\n這個低利率\n不過是沙灘上的城堡\n可是赤字危機\n卻是懸在美國頭頂的達摩克利斯之劍\n那接下來\n會怎麼走\n有三個觀察窗口\n第一個窗口是12月份\n昨天公布的美聯儲點陣圖顯示\n美聯儲18位官員裡\n有12位預計今年還會再加息25個基點\n4位預計會加兩次\n只有兩位認為會點到為止\n同時\n官員們對明年和後年的利率預測中值\n都上調了50個基點\n市場那邊\n有交易員已經在押注\n到明年年中還會有三次加息\n所以這很有可能不是最後一次\n而且這個可能性非常大\n第二個窗口是油價和中東\n如果中東局勢惡化\n柴油和汽油繼續往上頂\n那麼我們很有可能\n就會面對一個更長更痛的緊縮周期\n第三也是最重要的一個\n那就是30年期美債收益率\n這個是檢驗美聯儲這次行動\n是否成功的真正指標\n如果這次加息之後\n長端的收益率開始回落了\n說明市場相信了美聯儲的抗通脹決心\n願意降低通脹的溢價了\n那也說明這步美聯儲是走對了\n但是如果加息之後\n長端的收益率依然頑固不動\n甚至還在繼續往上\n那就說明美聯儲還會再加息\n而且到後來恐怕就不是貨幣政策的問題了\n而是一個得由華盛頓通過控制發債和財政預算\n才可以真正解決的問題了\n從2022年的暴烈加息\n到2024年的急忙降息\n再到今天2026年的被逼急剎重加息\n美聯儲走出了這一條罕見的雙峰曲線\n折射出的\n是我們身處的這一個充滿未知和巨變的時代\n赤字是懸在頭頂的劍\n通脹是踩在腳下的火\n白宮想要不痛不癢的低利率\n華爾街想要只漲不跌的資產泡沫\n而美聯儲只能夠在大家信任的邊緣走鋼絲\n這場高空走鋼絲的結局\n很快就會順著利率和匯率\n傳導到我們每一個人的資產賬本上\n聊到這裡\n我想把問題留給屏幕前的朋友們\n你覺得美聯儲這次狠下心調頭加息\n到底能不能壓住這逐漸死灰復燃的通脹\n面對接下來可能更長更痛的高利率時代\n您覺得普通人最該守的是現金\n黃金還是核心資產\n您會選哪一個\n在評論區留言告訴我\n也歡迎一起啟發大家\n節目的最後\n想跟老朋友們分享兩個旅遊行程\n想去日本又怕大團行程太趕\n體力吃不消的話\n現在希望之旅的這個日本關東關西溫泉之旅\n是只有10個人的小團\n從10月14日到21日8天7夜\n帶您慢遊富士山\n東京和京都\n還安排了兩天晚上的溫泉幫您放鬆身心\n人少有伴\n彼此也好照應\n如果11月比較方便的話\n可以考慮他們11月16日出發的\n台灣環島行8天7夜\n從台北到台南、再到阿里山\n吃住都很好適應\n台灣是一個好地方\n有台灣的朋友\n在這裡也歡迎在評論區跟我們的朋友互動一下\n日本團現在還有幾個名額\n9月20日截止\n想去的老朋友請把握這幾天來報名\n台灣團時間還早\n也歡迎先了解\n諮詢報名請致電1-855-955-5227\n或發短信至961961\n詳細的行程請點擊描述欄的網站\n好啦 我們今天就聊到這裡\n感謝朋友們的觀看\n離開之前如果還沒有給我點贊的話\n請給我點個贊吧\n新朋友歡迎您訂閱真觀點\n也歡迎點擊那個粉絲hype\n那個hype的熱推功能\n幫我的視頻傳播的更廣更遠\n最後也請朋友們把我的視頻\n轉發分享給更多的朋友\n幫助更多的人了解現在的經濟狀況\n好啦 那我們今天就聊到這裡\n感謝朋友們的觀看啦\n我們週六同一時間又在真觀點\n不見不散囉 拜拜",
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      "text": "叫針對川普的加息",
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      "start": 44.11,
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      "text": "言下之意",
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      "text": "這幫人加息",
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      "text": "純粹就是為了搞我",
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      "start": 47.947,
      "end": 48.248,
      "text": "你看",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 25,
      "start": 48.248,
      "end": 51.051,
      "text": "這又出現了一個非常戲劇性的畫面",
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      "id": 26,
      "start": 51.051,
      "end": 53.453,
      "text": "一邊是掌控貨幣權的美聯儲",
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      "id": 27,
      "start": 53.453,
      "end": 55.855,
      "text": "全票通過強行加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 28,
      "start": 55.855,
      "end": 58.358,
      "text": "一邊是掌控行政權的總統",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 29,
      "start": 58.358,
      "end": 59.259,
      "text": "拍案而起",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 30,
      "start": 59.259,
      "end": 61.428,
      "text": "指名道姓的大罵",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 31,
      "start": 61.428,
      "end": 62.662,
      "text": "這是怎麼回事",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 32,
      "start": 62.662,
      "end": 63.73,
      "text": "今天的25分鐘",
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    },
    {
      "id": 33,
      "start": 63.73,
      "end": 66.166,
      "text": "我們就來聊聊大夥最關心的幾個懸念",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    {
      "id": 34,
      "start": 66.166,
      "end": 67.934,
      "text": "美聯儲為什麼在這個時候",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 35,
      "start": 67.934,
      "end": 69.269,
      "text": "頂著總統的壓力",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
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      "start": 69.269,
      "end": 70.403,
      "text": "也要加息",
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    },
    {
      "id": 37,
      "start": 70.403,
      "end": 73.072,
      "text": "他真的是在跟白宮賭氣嗎",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 38,
      "start": 73.072,
      "end": 75.775,
      "text": "而川普又為什麼這麼的惱火",
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    },
    {
      "id": 39,
      "start": 75.775,
      "end": 78.011,
      "text": "他說的1%的低利率",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 40,
      "start": 78.011,
      "end": 79.546,
      "text": "是出於什麼樣的角度",
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      "start": 79.546,
      "end": 81.815,
      "text": "美聯儲能按他說的辦嗎",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 42,
      "start": 81.815,
      "end": 82.449,
      "text": "最後",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 43,
      "start": 82.449,
      "end": 83.616,
      "text": "美元加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 44,
      "start": 83.616,
      "end": 86.085,
      "text": "總統和美聯儲由來已久的矛盾",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 45,
      "start": 86.085,
      "end": 87.287,
      "text": "會如何影響",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
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      "start": 87.287,
      "end": 88.555,
      "text": "你手中的股票",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 47,
      "start": 88.555,
      "end": 90.69,
      "text": "房貸和錢包",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 48,
      "start": 90.69,
      "end": 92.792,
      "text": "我們先從一個很多人都沒有注意到的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 49,
      "start": 92.792,
      "end": 93.993,
      "text": "技術細節講起",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 50,
      "start": 93.993,
      "end": 95.228,
      "text": "這一輪貨幣政策",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 51,
      "start": 95.228,
      "end": 97.397,
      "text": "是一個在現代央行史上",
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    {
      "id": 52,
      "start": 97.397,
      "end": 98.798,
      "text": "極其罕見的軌跡",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 53,
      "start": 98.798,
      "end": 100.366,
      "text": "你可以想像一條山路",
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    {
      "id": 54,
      "start": 100.366,
      "end": 101.668,
      "text": "2022年3月",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 55,
      "start": 101.668,
      "end": 103.67,
      "text": "面對疫情後放水的後遺症",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 56,
      "start": 103.67,
      "end": 105.472,
      "text": "斷裂的供應鏈和俄烏衝突",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 57,
      "start": 105.472,
      "end": 108.108,
      "text": "美國的CPI一度逼近10%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 58,
      "start": 108.108,
      "end": 110.577,
      "text": "於是美聯儲開始拼命爬坡",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 59,
      "start": 110.577,
      "end": 112.212,
      "text": "連續11次加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 60,
      "start": 112.212,
      "end": 114.38,
      "text": "把利率從接近零的水平",
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    },
    {
      "id": 61,
      "start": 114.38,
      "end": 117.217,
      "text": "一路拉到了5.25%到5.5%",
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    },
    {
      "id": 62,
      "start": 117.217,
      "end": 118.751,
      "text": "創下20年新高",
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    },
    {
      "id": 63,
      "start": 118.751,
      "end": 120.353,
      "text": "爬到山頂之後",
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    },
    {
      "id": 64,
      "start": 120.353,
      "end": 122.989,
      "text": "是整整一年的高位平臺期",
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    },
    {
      "id": 65,
      "start": 122.989,
      "end": 124.491,
      "text": "這一年的口號叫做",
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    },
    {
      "id": 66,
      "start": 124.491,
      "end": 125.592,
      "text": "Higher for Longer",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 67,
      "start": 125.592,
      "end": 128.294,
      "text": "就是將高利率維持更長的時間",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 68,
      "start": 128.294,
      "end": 131.397,
      "text": "等高利率把通脹壓回2%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 69,
      "start": 131.397,
      "end": 133.433,
      "text": "同時防止太早降息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 70,
      "start": 133.433,
      "end": 135.134,
      "text": "讓通脹捲土重來",
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    },
    {
      "id": 71,
      "start": 135.134,
      "end": 135.869,
      "text": "然後",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 72,
      "start": 135.869,
      "end": 137.537,
      "text": "到了2024年9月",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 73,
      "start": 137.537,
      "end": 139.539,
      "text": "眼看著通脹降溫",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 74,
      "start": 139.539,
      "end": 140.807,
      "text": "就業放緩",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 75,
      "start": 140.807,
      "end": 143.076,
      "text": "美聯儲於是啟動降息",
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    },
    {
      "id": 76,
      "start": 143.076,
      "end": 146.179,
      "text": "而且是以50個基點的大動作開場",
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    },
    {
      "id": 77,
      "start": 146.179,
      "end": 148.815,
      "text": "從那個時候一直到2025年的12月",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 78,
      "start": 148.815,
      "end": 149.983,
      "text": "連砍6刀",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 79,
      "start": 149.983,
      "end": 153.653,
      "text": "把利率降到了3.5%到3.75%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 80,
      "start": 153.653,
      "end": 156.089,
      "text": "那個時候美聯儲的態度非常明確",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 81,
      "start": 156.089,
      "end": 158.191,
      "text": "通脹仗打贏了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 82,
      "start": 158.191,
      "end": 161.06,
      "text": "接下來要保經濟的軟著陸",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 83,
      "start": 161.06,
      "end": 161.661,
      "text": "然而",
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    },
    {
      "id": 84,
      "start": 161.661,
      "end": 162.795,
      "text": "進入到今年",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 85,
      "start": 162.795,
      "end": 163.796,
      "text": "關稅滲漏",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 86,
      "start": 163.796,
      "end": 166.165,
      "text": "地緣衝突把油價重新抬高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 87,
      "start": 166.165,
      "end": 168.268,
      "text": "通脹開始死灰復燃",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 88,
      "start": 168.268,
      "end": 170.336,
      "text": "今年的前5次議息會議",
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    },
    {
      "id": 89,
      "start": 170.336,
      "end": 171.971,
      "text": "美聯儲踩住剎車",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 90,
      "start": 171.971,
      "end": 172.772,
      "text": "按兵不動",
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    },
    {
      "id": 91,
      "start": 172.772,
      "end": 174.14,
      "text": "但是時間越久",
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    },
    {
      "id": 92,
      "start": 174.14,
      "end": 176.042,
      "text": "他這心裡就越打鼓",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 93,
      "start": 176.042,
      "end": 177.21,
      "text": "之前的6刀",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 94,
      "start": 177.21,
      "end": 178.711,
      "text": "是不是砍急了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 95,
      "start": 178.711,
      "end": 179.379,
      "text": "終於",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 96,
      "start": 179.379,
      "end": 180.98,
      "text": "昨天美聯儲做出了一個",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 97,
      "start": 180.98,
      "end": 182.749,
      "text": "震驚全球市場的決定",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 98,
      "start": 182.749,
      "end": 184.083,
      "text": "全票通過",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 99,
      "start": 184.083,
      "end": 185.318,
      "text": "調頭加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 100,
      "start": 185.318,
      "end": 187.22,
      "text": "把這條路線連起來看",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 101,
      "start": 187.22,
      "end": 188.955,
      "text": "那就是連續加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 102,
      "start": 188.955,
      "end": 190.156,
      "text": "高位懸停",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 103,
      "start": 190.156,
      "end": 191.491,
      "text": "再連續降息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 104,
      "start": 191.491,
      "end": 192.859,
      "text": "停住觀望",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 105,
      "start": 192.859,
      "end": 194.594,
      "text": "再重新加息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 106,
      "start": 194.594,
      "end": 195.929,
      "text": "這不是普通的週期",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 107,
      "start": 195.929,
      "end": 197.197,
      "text": "這是金融學裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 108,
      "start": 197.197,
      "end": 198.932,
      "text": "令人聞風喪膽的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 109,
      "start": 198.932,
      "end": 200.099,
      "text": "雙峰型週期",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 110,
      "start": 200.099,
      "end": 201.668,
      "text": "也就是降完息之後",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 111,
      "start": 201.668,
      "end": 202.936,
      "text": "再重新加息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 112,
      "start": 202.936,
      "end": 204.17,
      "text": "這有多麼罕見",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 113,
      "start": 204.17,
      "end": 207.04,
      "text": "在過去40年的現代央行史上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 114,
      "start": 207.04,
      "end": 209.242,
      "text": "美聯儲只要開啟了降息大門",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 115,
      "start": 209.242,
      "end": 211.01,
      "text": "基本都是一路降到底",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 116,
      "start": 211.01,
      "end": 213.012,
      "text": "因為對於一家中央銀行來說",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "start": 213.012,
      "end": 214.38,
      "text": "降完再加",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "start": 214.38,
      "end": 215.748,
      "text": "是成本最高",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "start": 215.748,
      "end": 217.55,
      "text": "代價最重的一件事",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "start": 217.55,
      "end": 218.251,
      "text": "你想想看",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "start": 218.251,
      "end": 220.353,
      "text": "央行手裡最值錢的東西是什麼",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 122,
      "start": 220.353,
      "end": 221.287,
      "text": "不是錢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 123,
      "start": 221.287,
      "end": 222.488,
      "text": "是他的信用",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 124,
      "start": 222.488,
      "end": 223.69,
      "text": "是市場相信",
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    },
    {
      "id": 125,
      "start": 223.69,
      "end": 225.224,
      "text": "你說什麼就是什麼",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 126,
      "start": 225.224,
      "end": 227.293,
      "text": "當美聯儲在2024年9月",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 127,
      "start": 227.293,
      "end": 228.528,
      "text": "啟動降息的時候",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 128,
      "start": 228.528,
      "end": 230.93,
      "text": "它等於向全世界發出了信號",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 129,
      "start": 230.93,
      "end": 232.832,
      "text": "通脹的仗我打贏了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 130,
      "start": 232.832,
      "end": 235.368,
      "text": "接下來我要往寬鬆的方向走了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 131,
      "start": 235.368,
      "end": 236.836,
      "text": "所有人買房的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 132,
      "start": 236.836,
      "end": 237.537,
      "text": "發債的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 133,
      "start": 237.537,
      "end": 238.938,
      "text": "做企業投資決策的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 134,
      "start": 238.938,
      "end": 240.173,
      "text": "都是按照這個信號",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 135,
      "start": 240.173,
      "end": 241.774,
      "text": "去安排未來幾年的錢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 136,
      "start": 241.774,
      "end": 243.776,
      "text": "現在他掉頭了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 137,
      "start": 243.776,
      "end": 244.944,
      "text": "等於公開承認",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 138,
      "start": 244.944,
      "end": 245.545,
      "text": "對不起",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 139,
      "start": 245.545,
      "end": 247.48,
      "text": "那個仗我可能還沒打完",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 140,
      "start": 247.48,
      "end": 248.915,
      "text": "這一記耳光",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 141,
      "start": 248.915,
      "end": 250.783,
      "text": "是響亮地打在它自己",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 142,
      "start": 250.783,
      "end": 252.418,
      "text": "美聯儲的臉上",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "start": 252.418,
      "end": 253.186,
      "text": "而歷史上",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "start": 253.186,
      "end": 255.321,
      "text": "只有一個真正可比的先例",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "start": 255.321,
      "end": 257.323,
      "text": "那就是1980年的時候",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "start": 257.323,
      "end": 259.192,
      "text": "當時的美聯儲主席沃爾克",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "start": 259.192,
      "end": 260.593,
      "text": "面對兩位數的通脹",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "start": 260.593,
      "end": 263.129,
      "text": "先是把利率加到了接近20%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 149,
      "start": 263.129,
      "end": 265.031,
      "text": "他把利率往死裡加",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 150,
      "start": 265.031,
      "end": 267.066,
      "text": "經濟立刻掉進衰退",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 151,
      "start": 267.066,
      "end": 268.768,
      "text": "於是到當年的5月到7月",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 152,
      "start": 268.768,
      "end": 270.67,
      "text": "他被迫大幅降息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 153,
      "start": 270.67,
      "end": 273.64,
      "text": "三個月之內猛降了850個基點",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 154,
      "start": 273.64,
      "end": 276.309,
      "text": "可是通脹還在12%以上",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 155,
      "start": 276.309,
      "end": 278.177,
      "text": "沃爾克被迫在當年",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 156,
      "start": 278.177,
      "end": 279.879,
      "text": "二次重啟加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 157,
      "start": 279.879,
      "end": 283.316,
      "text": "把利率推到創紀錄的21.5%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "start": 283.316,
      "end": 284.317,
      "text": "那次的雙峰",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 159,
      "start": 284.317,
      "end": 286.686,
      "text": "代價是美國經濟在三年內",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 160,
      "start": 286.686,
      "end": 288.588,
      "text": "連續兩次掉進衰退",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 161,
      "start": 288.588,
      "end": 290.29,
      "text": "失業率衝破10%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 162,
      "start": 290.29,
      "end": 292.659,
      "text": "這就是經濟學教科書裡",
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    },
    {
      "id": 163,
      "start": 292.659,
      "end": 294.994,
      "text": "那一個著名的雙底衰退",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 164,
      "start": 294.994,
      "end": 296.496,
      "text": "所以當今天美聯儲",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 165,
      "start": 296.496,
      "end": 298.998,
      "text": "再次走出這一個危險雙峰的形狀",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 166,
      "start": 298.998,
      "end": 300.933,
      "text": "它內部的邏輯往往只有一條",
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    },
    {
      "id": 167,
      "start": 300.933,
      "end": 303.069,
      "text": "那就是第一輪我沒打乾淨",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 168,
      "start": 303.069,
      "end": 304.671,
      "text": "通脹的根還在",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 169,
      "start": 304.671,
      "end": 307.607,
      "text": "而這一次已經沒有退路了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 170,
      "start": 307.607,
      "end": 308.508,
      "text": "必須加息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 171,
      "start": 308.508,
      "end": 310.91,
      "text": "那麼一個疑問就出來了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 172,
      "start": 310.91,
      "end": 312.312,
      "text": "什麼樣的信號",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 173,
      "start": 312.312,
      "end": 314.647,
      "text": "讓美聯儲寧可賭上信用",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 174,
      "start": 314.647,
      "end": 316.549,
      "text": "也要強行打出這一記",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 175,
      "start": 316.549,
      "end": 317.684,
      "text": "回馬槍呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 176,
      "start": 317.684,
      "end": 319.218,
      "text": "通脹的指標是一個方面",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 177,
      "start": 319.218,
      "end": 322.355,
      "text": "但是還有一個非常直觀的導火索",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 178,
      "start": 322.355,
      "end": 324.09,
      "text": "那就是在剛剛過去的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 179,
      "start": 324.09,
      "end": 326.459,
      "text": "7月和8月發生的一件事情",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 180,
      "start": 326.459,
      "end": 328.861,
      "text": "這件事情在中文報道裡並不多",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 181,
      "start": 328.861,
      "end": 330.43,
      "text": "但是它是這一次加息",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 182,
      "start": 330.43,
      "end": 331.531,
      "text": "真正的導火索",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 183,
      "start": 331.531,
      "end": 333.933,
      "text": "我們把鏡頭拉回到8月13號",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 184,
      "start": 333.933,
      "end": 335.368,
      "text": "那一天美國財政部",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 185,
      "start": 335.368,
      "end": 338.071,
      "text": "是進行了一場例行的美債發售",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 186,
      "start": 338.071,
      "end": 339.172,
      "text": "政府缺錢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 187,
      "start": 339.172,
      "end": 339.839,
      "text": "發債",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 188,
      "start": 339.839,
      "end": 340.94,
      "text": "找市場借錢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 189,
      "start": 340.94,
      "end": 344.11,
      "text": "這本來是每個月都在發生的常規操作",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 190,
      "start": 344.11,
      "end": 345.878,
      "text": "那一天美國要賣的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 191,
      "start": 345.878,
      "end": 347.747,
      "text": "是250億美元的",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 192,
      "start": 347.747,
      "end": 349.749,
      "text": "30年期超長國債",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 193,
      "start": 349.749,
      "end": 350.516,
      "text": "結果",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 194,
      "start": 350.516,
      "end": 351.951,
      "text": "開標的那一刻",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 195,
      "start": 351.951,
      "end": 354.654,
      "text": "華爾街是全場震顫了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 196,
      "start": 354.654,
      "end": 355.955,
      "text": "因為中標收益率",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 197,
      "start": 355.955,
      "end": 357.924,
      "text": "中標收益率飆到了5.2%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 198,
      "start": 357.924,
      "end": 359.892,
      "text": "5.2%是什麼概念",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 199,
      "start": 359.892,
      "end": 361.627,
      "text": "這是自2001年以來",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 200,
      "start": 361.627,
      "end": 363.096,
      "text": "整整25年間",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 201,
      "start": 363.096,
      "end": 365.598,
      "text": "美國政府為了借錢付出的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 202,
      "start": 365.598,
      "end": 366.933,
      "text": "最高代價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 203,
      "start": 366.933,
      "end": 369.802,
      "text": "創下了四分之一個世紀的新高",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 204,
      "start": 369.802,
      "end": 371.304,
      "text": "而這更難看的細節",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 205,
      "start": 371.304,
      "end": 372.372,
      "text": "還在幕後",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 206,
      "start": 372.372,
      "end": 373.84,
      "text": "發售現場還出現了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 207,
      "start": 373.84,
      "end": 374.741,
      "text": "極其罕見的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 208,
      "start": 374.741,
      "end": 375.541,
      "text": "尾部利差",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 209,
      "start": 375.541,
      "end": 377.143,
      "text": "什麼叫做尾部利差",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 210,
      "start": 377.143,
      "end": 377.777,
      "text": "假設",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 211,
      "start": 377.777,
      "end": 379.045,
      "text": "有一套二手房",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 212,
      "start": 379.045,
      "end": 379.879,
      "text": "在拍賣",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 213,
      "start": 379.879,
      "end": 380.78,
      "text": "中介估算",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 214,
      "start": 380.78,
      "end": 383.082,
      "text": "這套房子應該能賣出100萬",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 215,
      "start": 383.082,
      "end": 384.417,
      "text": "但是在當天",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 216,
      "start": 384.417,
      "end": 386.018,
      "text": "買家們稀稀拉拉",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 217,
      "start": 386.018,
      "end": 388.054,
      "text": "根本就沒有人願意出100萬",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 218,
      "start": 388.054,
      "end": 389.989,
      "text": "拍賣官只得一路降價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 219,
      "start": 389.989,
      "end": 390.923,
      "text": "直到90萬",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 220,
      "start": 390.923,
      "end": 392.225,
      "text": "才有人肯買",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 221,
      "start": 392.225,
      "end": 393.893,
      "text": "這估算出來的100萬",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 222,
      "start": 393.893,
      "end": 396.963,
      "text": "和最終撿漏成交的90萬之間的差距",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 223,
      "start": 396.963,
      "end": 398.164,
      "text": "在金融圈裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 224,
      "start": 398.164,
      "end": 399.399,
      "text": "就叫做尾部",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 225,
      "start": 399.399,
      "end": 401.3,
      "text": "美國政府賣國債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 226,
      "start": 401.3,
      "end": 403.202,
      "text": "規則是荷蘭式拍賣",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 227,
      "start": 403.202,
      "end": 405.004,
      "text": "那就是誰要求的利息低",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 228,
      "start": 405.004,
      "end": 406.339,
      "text": "就先賣給誰",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 229,
      "start": 406.339,
      "end": 407.24,
      "text": "如果沒人買",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 230,
      "start": 407.24,
      "end": 409.142,
      "text": "政府就必須抬高這個利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 231,
      "start": 409.142,
      "end": 412.111,
      "text": "直到把這批國債全部賣光為止",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 232,
      "start": 412.111,
      "end": 413.546,
      "text": "所以尾部利差",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 233,
      "start": 413.546,
      "end": 414.58,
      "text": "通俗的話來說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 234,
      "start": 414.58,
      "end": 416.983,
      "text": "就是美國政府在賣債的時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 235,
      "start": 416.983,
      "end": 418.751,
      "text": "買家根本不買賬",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 236,
      "start": 418.751,
      "end": 421.654,
      "text": "他們集體要求要更高的利息才入手",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 237,
      "start": 421.654,
      "end": 423.456,
      "text": "政府為了籌到這筆錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 238,
      "start": 423.456,
      "end": 425.158,
      "text": "把這批國債賣完",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 239,
      "start": 425.158,
      "end": 427.96,
      "text": "不得不答應給買家支付更高的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 240,
      "start": 427.96,
      "end": 431.03,
      "text": "未來承諾用更多的錢來還",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 241,
      "start": 431.03,
      "end": 431.764,
      "text": "那買家",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 242,
      "start": 431.764,
      "end": 434.634,
      "text": "為什麼會集體要求更高的利息呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 243,
      "start": 434.634,
      "end": 435.902,
      "text": "當然就是他們覺得",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 244,
      "start": 435.902,
      "end": 437.336,
      "text": "風險在增大",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 245,
      "start": 437.336,
      "end": 440.54,
      "text": "不看好這國債未來的收益",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 246,
      "start": 440.54,
      "end": 441.407,
      "text": "5天之後",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 247,
      "start": 441.407,
      "end": 443.109,
      "text": "果然出事了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 248,
      "start": 443.109,
      "end": 444.577,
      "text": "這一天30年期",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 249,
      "start": 444.577,
      "end": 446.245,
      "text": "美債收益率直接失控",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 250,
      "start": 446.245,
      "end": 448.447,
      "text": "狂飆到了5.334%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 251,
      "start": 448.447,
      "end": 451.117,
      "text": "衝破了2007年金融危機前的紀錄",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 252,
      "start": 451.117,
      "end": 452.552,
      "text": "10年期美債收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 253,
      "start": 452.552,
      "end": 454.821,
      "text": "也被拉到了4.75%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 254,
      "start": 454.821,
      "end": 455.555,
      "text": "這裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 255,
      "start": 455.555,
      "end": 456.622,
      "text": "我要先停下來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 256,
      "start": 456.622,
      "end": 457.657,
      "text": "用一分鐘的時間",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 257,
      "start": 457.657,
      "end": 459.659,
      "text": "給朋友們解釋一個核心的原理",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 258,
      "start": 459.659,
      "end": 460.893,
      "text": "因為不弄懂這一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 259,
      "start": 460.893,
      "end": 462.261,
      "text": "接下來的問題",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 260,
      "start": 462.261,
      "end": 463.463,
      "text": "可能會聽不明白",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 261,
      "start": 463.463,
      "end": 465.464,
      "text": "而且也根本沒有辦法感覺到",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 262,
      "start": 465.464,
      "end": 466.466,
      "text": "美聯儲當時",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 263,
      "start": 466.466,
      "end": 467.633,
      "text": "得有多慌",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 264,
      "start": 467.633,
      "end": 469.535,
      "text": "美債的價格和收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 265,
      "start": 469.535,
      "end": 471.304,
      "text": "就像是蹺蹺板的兩端",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 266,
      "start": 471.304,
      "end": 472.338,
      "text": "價格越低",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 267,
      "start": 472.338,
      "end": 473.606,
      "text": "收益率就越高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 268,
      "start": 473.606,
      "end": 474.64,
      "text": "你可以這麼理解",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 269,
      "start": 474.64,
      "end": 476.943,
      "text": "假設你的手裡有一張債券",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 270,
      "start": 476.943,
      "end": 477.877,
      "text": "面值100塊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 271,
      "start": 477.877,
      "end": 480.146,
      "text": "每年固定給你4塊錢的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 272,
      "start": 480.146,
      "end": 482.281,
      "text": "那你的年化收益率就是4%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 273,
      "start": 482.281,
      "end": 482.915,
      "text": "但是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 274,
      "start": 482.915,
      "end": 486.252,
      "text": "當所有人都在恐慌的拋售這樣的債券",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 275,
      "start": 486.252,
      "end": 487.687,
      "text": "那它的價格就會暴跌",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 276,
      "start": 487.687,
      "end": 489.822,
      "text": "然後一路跌到了80塊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 277,
      "start": 489.822,
      "end": 491.157,
      "text": "那新買進的人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 278,
      "start": 491.157,
      "end": 493.426,
      "text": "只需要花80塊就可以買入",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 279,
      "start": 493.426,
      "end": 495.895,
      "text": "但是他依然能夠領到4塊錢的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 280,
      "start": 495.895,
      "end": 497.63,
      "text": "那他的實際回報率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 281,
      "start": 497.63,
      "end": 500.733,
      "text": "就從4%變成了5%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 282,
      "start": 500.733,
      "end": 501.334,
      "text": "所以記住",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 283,
      "start": 501.334,
      "end": 502.869,
      "text": "收益率飆升",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 284,
      "start": 502.869,
      "end": 505.471,
      "text": "本質上就是價格在暴跌",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 285,
      "start": 505.471,
      "end": 508.14,
      "text": "是資金在奪路而逃",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 286,
      "start": 508.14,
      "end": 510.509,
      "text": "而逃的可不是什麼小市場",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 287,
      "start": 510.509,
      "end": 513.946,
      "text": "美國國債是全世界公認的無風險資產",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 288,
      "start": 513.946,
      "end": 516.249,
      "text": "是整個國際金融體系的地基",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 289,
      "start": 516.249,
      "end": 518.417,
      "text": "是所有資產定價的錨",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 290,
      "start": 518.417,
      "end": 519.685,
      "text": "這個市場",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 291,
      "start": 519.685,
      "end": 521.52,
      "text": "要出現恐慌性拋售",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 292,
      "start": 521.52,
      "end": 524.156,
      "text": "相當於一棟大樓的承重牆",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 293,
      "start": 524.156,
      "end": 525.524,
      "text": "開始出現裂縫了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 294,
      "start": 525.524,
      "end": 528.461,
      "text": "那麼是誰在暗中砸盤",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 295,
      "start": 528.461,
      "end": 531.53,
      "text": "買家們又在害怕什麼呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 296,
      "start": 531.53,
      "end": 534.4,
      "text": "其實財政部比誰都清楚出了大事",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 297,
      "start": 534.4,
      "end": 535.601,
      "text": "8月19號的時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 298,
      "start": 535.601,
      "end": 537.003,
      "text": "美國財政部坐不住了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 299,
      "start": 537.003,
      "end": 538.871,
      "text": "緊急拋出了兩份重磅數據",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 300,
      "start": 538.871,
      "end": 539.672,
      "text": "第一份數據",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 301,
      "start": 539.672,
      "end": 541.707,
      "text": "直接把這個遮羞布給撕了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 302,
      "start": 541.707,
      "end": 542.875,
      "text": "截至8月18日",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 303,
      "start": 542.875,
      "end": 544.81,
      "text": "美國聯邦政府債務總額",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 304,
      "start": 544.81,
      "end": 547.647,
      "text": "首次衝破了40萬億美元的大關",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 305,
      "start": 547.647,
      "end": 548.447,
      "text": "朋友們",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 306,
      "start": 548.447,
      "end": 550.85,
      "text": "對40萬億可能沒有什麼直觀的概念",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 307,
      "start": 550.85,
      "end": 552.184,
      "text": "我給你幾個參照",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 308,
      "start": 552.184,
      "end": 555.755,
      "text": "今年3月這個數字才剛剛突破39萬億",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 309,
      "start": 555.755,
      "end": 557.223,
      "text": "所以就是不到5個月",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 310,
      "start": 557.223,
      "end": 558.324,
      "text": "1萬億沒了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 311,
      "start": 558.324,
      "end": 559.425,
      "text": "過去一年",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 312,
      "start": 559.425,
      "end": 561.761,
      "text": "美國國債平均每天",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 313,
      "start": 561.761,
      "end": 564.03,
      "text": "會增加大約79億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 314,
      "start": 564.03,
      "end": 564.864,
      "text": "換算下來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 315,
      "start": 564.864,
      "end": 566.265,
      "text": "每一秒鐘",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 316,
      "start": 566.265,
      "end": 569.335,
      "text": "美國國債會增加9.1萬美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 317,
      "start": 569.335,
      "end": 571.504,
      "text": "更加要命的是另外兩個數字",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 318,
      "start": 571.504,
      "end": 573.239,
      "text": "2026財年的前10個月",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 319,
      "start": 573.239,
      "end": 576.142,
      "text": "政府赤字就已經達到了1.8萬億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 320,
      "start": 576.142,
      "end": 578.044,
      "text": "比去年一整年還要多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 321,
      "start": 578.044,
      "end": 580.379,
      "text": "而光是給這些債務還利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 322,
      "start": 580.379,
      "end": 583.482,
      "text": "今年就要掏掉接近1.2萬億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 323,
      "start": 583.482,
      "end": 586.218,
      "text": "這比美國的國防預算還要高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 324,
      "start": 586.218,
      "end": 587.687,
      "text": "而這只是美國政府",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 325,
      "start": 587.687,
      "end": 590.389,
      "text": "純粹為了去還舊賬的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 326,
      "start": 590.389,
      "end": 591.424,
      "text": "而付出去的錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 327,
      "start": 591.424,
      "end": 592.391,
      "text": "為了救市",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 328,
      "start": 592.391,
      "end": 594.66,
      "text": "財政部當天就宣布了第二件事",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 329,
      "start": 594.66,
      "end": 596.162,
      "text": "開啟國債回購",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 330,
      "start": 596.162,
      "end": 597.697,
      "text": "也就是政府自己下場",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 331,
      "start": 597.697,
      "end": 600.232,
      "text": "掏錢去買回自己發出去的債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 332,
      "start": 600.232,
      "end": 602.234,
      "text": "充當買家給市場托底",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 333,
      "start": 602.234,
      "end": 604.337,
      "text": "財政部長貝森特甚至暗示",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 334,
      "start": 604.337,
      "end": 606.939,
      "text": "只要需要回購規模還可以擴大",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 335,
      "start": 606.939,
      "end": 608.24,
      "text": "結果",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 336,
      "start": 608.24,
      "end": 609.675,
      "text": "只撐了兩天",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 337,
      "start": 609.675,
      "end": 610.576,
      "text": "8月21日",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 338,
      "start": 610.576,
      "end": 612.812,
      "text": "30年期美債收益率再次失控",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 339,
      "start": 612.812,
      "end": 614.78,
      "text": "重新飆到5.28%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 340,
      "start": 614.78,
      "end": 615.815,
      "text": "到了9月9日",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 341,
      "start": 615.815,
      "end": 618.017,
      "text": "也就是美聯儲開會前一個星期",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 342,
      "start": 618.017,
      "end": 621.32,
      "text": "30年期收益率再次升破5.30%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 343,
      "start": 621.32,
      "end": 623.489,
      "text": "財政部按照擴大之後的計劃",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 344,
      "start": 623.489,
      "end": 627.093,
      "text": "第一次操作就要買入最多60億美元的長債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 345,
      "start": 627.093,
      "end": 628.094,
      "text": "而這個規模",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 346,
      "start": 628.094,
      "end": 631.397,
      "text": "是它最初對外公布的20億的三倍",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 347,
      "start": 631.397,
      "end": 633.599,
      "text": "用三倍的回購規模",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 348,
      "start": 633.599,
      "end": 635.634,
      "text": "每天掃貨去買長債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 349,
      "start": 635.634,
      "end": 638.604,
      "text": "但是收益率還是紋絲不動",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 350,
      "start": 638.604,
      "end": 641.874,
      "text": "這說明買家還在瘋狂跑路",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 351,
      "start": 641.874,
      "end": 643.376,
      "text": "這到底是怎麼回事",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 352,
      "start": 643.376,
      "end": 645.111,
      "text": "美債為什麼會出事",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 353,
      "start": 645.111,
      "end": 648.18,
      "text": "為什麼這次財政部都按不住呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 354,
      "start": 648.18,
      "end": 650.85,
      "text": "這幾個問題我們會一個一個拆解",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 355,
      "start": 650.85,
      "end": 654.153,
      "text": "但是先暫時把目光從美國的賬本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 356,
      "start": 654.153,
      "end": 656.555,
      "text": "拉回到咱們自己的生活",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 357,
      "start": 656.555,
      "end": 659.158,
      "text": "每到過節身邊總是有朋友問我",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 358,
      "start": 659.158,
      "end": 660.793,
      "text": "送爸媽什麼好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 359,
      "start": 660.793,
      "end": 662.328,
      "text": "送衣服又怕不合身",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 360,
      "start": 662.328,
      "end": 663.763,
      "text": "送紅包爸媽也不收",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 361,
      "start": 663.763,
      "end": 666.799,
      "text": "送吃的又怕放著浪費他們不喜歡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 362,
      "start": 666.799,
      "end": 670.236,
      "text": "送禮這件事難的從來都不是花錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 363,
      "start": 670.236,
      "end": 672.004,
      "text": "是送到心坎上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 364,
      "start": 672.004,
      "end": 673.973,
      "text": "正好我們的贊助廠商",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 365,
      "start": 673.973,
      "end": 675.341,
      "text": "Lucent Living藍莓優品",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 366,
      "start": 675.341,
      "end": 678.444,
      "text": "推薦了中秋好禮紅海參養生膠",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 367,
      "start": 678.444,
      "end": 679.512,
      "text": "給您一個參考",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 368,
      "start": 679.512,
      "end": 681.681,
      "text": "我小的時候膝蓋是受過傷的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 369,
      "start": 681.681,
      "end": 682.648,
      "text": "平常沒什麼事",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 370,
      "start": 682.648,
      "end": 684.083,
      "text": "但是上下樓多了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 371,
      "start": 684.083,
      "end": 686.185,
      "text": "偶爾就會有隱隱的不舒服的感覺",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 372,
      "start": 686.185,
      "end": 689.422,
      "text": "所以我一直是比較注重保養我的膝蓋",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 373,
      "start": 689.422,
      "end": 692.825,
      "text": "這一款產品我吃到現在已經差不多一盒了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 374,
      "start": 692.825,
      "end": 694.693,
      "text": "最近發現下樓的時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 375,
      "start": 694.693,
      "end": 697.697,
      "text": "以前那種隱隱的不舒服的感覺",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 376,
      "start": 697.697,
      "end": 698.798,
      "text": "確實是少了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 377,
      "start": 698.798,
      "end": 699.698,
      "text": "我查了一下",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 378,
      "start": 699.698,
      "end": 701.5,
      "text": "這一款紅海參養生膠",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 379,
      "start": 701.5,
      "end": 704.904,
      "text": "含有多鏈硫酸軟骨素和小分子膠原肽",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 380,
      "start": 704.904,
      "end": 708.374,
      "text": "的確有助於維持關節的潤滑和軟骨的健康",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 381,
      "start": 708.374,
      "end": 709.875,
      "text": "不過要提醒您",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 382,
      "start": 709.875,
      "end": 711.944,
      "text": "這一款產品是營養品不是藥",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 383,
      "start": 711.944,
      "end": 714.413,
      "text": "所以朋友該看醫生還是得看醫生",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 384,
      "start": 714.413,
      "end": 716.816,
      "text": "吃之前也最好問一下您的醫生",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 385,
      "start": 716.816,
      "end": 717.883,
      "text": "還有一個好消息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 386,
      "start": 717.883,
      "end": 719.819,
      "text": "現在是有中秋優惠活動的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 387,
      "start": 719.819,
      "end": 721.987,
      "text": "三款指定的中秋組合產品",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 388,
      "start": 721.987,
      "end": 722.955,
      "text": "輸入我的優惠碼",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 389,
      "start": 722.955,
      "end": 725.558,
      "text": "【zhenfei】就可以先享受到85折",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 390,
      "start": 725.558,
      "end": 727.593,
      "text": "折後還可以再減25",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 391,
      "start": 727.593,
      "end": 730.196,
      "text": "最後還會附贈超級實用的禮物",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 392,
      "start": 730.196,
      "end": 732.998,
      "text": "一次性您就可以享受到三重優惠",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 393,
      "start": 732.998,
      "end": 734.6,
      "text": "所以千萬不要錯過",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 394,
      "start": 734.6,
      "end": 736.535,
      "text": "第一次嘗試或者是自己吃",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 395,
      "start": 736.535,
      "end": 740.106,
      "text": "可以買團圓養生組優惠節省了125塊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 396,
      "start": 740.106,
      "end": 741.507,
      "text": "如果是給長輩的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 397,
      "start": 741.507,
      "end": 743.375,
      "text": "就建議選這一個組合",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 398,
      "start": 743.375,
      "end": 744.343,
      "text": "多50來塊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 399,
      "start": 744.343,
      "end": 748.414,
      "text": "但是紅海參從30支變成了這樣的大包裝60支",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 400,
      "start": 748.414,
      "end": 749.448,
      "text": "差一倍的量",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 401,
      "start": 749.448,
      "end": 751.45,
      "text": "中秋送禮也更拿得出手",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 402,
      "start": 751.45,
      "end": 753.018,
      "text": "活動到9月30日結束",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 403,
      "start": 753.018,
      "end": 754.453,
      "text": "組合的數量有限哦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 404,
      "start": 754.453,
      "end": 756.422,
      "text": "朋友們建議您早點下手",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 405,
      "start": 756.422,
      "end": 758.457,
      "text": "鏈接就在節目下面的說明欄",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 406,
      "start": 758.457,
      "end": 759.725,
      "text": "我們再說回來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 407,
      "start": 759.725,
      "end": 762.394,
      "text": "為什麼這次美債會出這樣的事",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 408,
      "start": 762.394,
      "end": 764.263,
      "text": "而財政部壓都壓不住",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 409,
      "start": 764.263,
      "end": 768.701,
      "text": "因為這次美債是被三把重錘給砸到起不來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 410,
      "start": 768.701,
      "end": 771.871,
      "text": "第一是通脹從外部復活了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 411,
      "start": 771.871,
      "end": 773.005,
      "text": "中東的戰火升級",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 412,
      "start": 773.005,
      "end": 774.874,
      "text": "油價一路往上頂",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 413,
      "start": 774.874,
      "end": 777.977,
      "text": "布倫特原油重新站上了每桶100元的位置",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 414,
      "start": 777.977,
      "end": 780.446,
      "text": "9月中旬一度逼近110美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 415,
      "start": 780.446,
      "end": 783.415,
      "text": "光這一項就貢獻了當月整體",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 416,
      "start": 783.415,
      "end": 785.251,
      "text": "通脹漲幅的三分之一以上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 417,
      "start": 785.251,
      "end": 786.819,
      "text": "更狠的在柴油",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 418,
      "start": 786.819,
      "end": 789.955,
      "text": "8月柴油價格環比暴漲了9.6%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 419,
      "start": 789.955,
      "end": 792.024,
      "text": "同比漲幅高達44%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 420,
      "start": 792.024,
      "end": 793.793,
      "text": "根據美國汽車協會的數據",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 421,
      "start": 793.793,
      "end": 798.197,
      "text": "全美柴油均價較一年前漲了超過60%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 422,
      "start": 798.197,
      "end": 798.697,
      "text": "你要知道",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 423,
      "start": 798.697,
      "end": 802.468,
      "text": "柴油可是整個美國物流和交通的工業血液",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 424,
      "start": 802.468,
      "end": 804.703,
      "text": "我們在超市裡買的每一樣東西",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 425,
      "start": 804.703,
      "end": 806.438,
      "text": "都是柴油車拉過去的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 426,
      "start": 806.438,
      "end": 808.073,
      "text": "柴油漲了60%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 427,
      "start": 808.073,
      "end": 809.942,
      "text": "意味著物流成本大漲",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 428,
      "start": 809.942,
      "end": 812.411,
      "text": "意味著企業要提價對衝",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 429,
      "start": 812.411,
      "end": 817.75,
      "text": "就意味著通脹會像水滲進海綿一樣滲進整條經濟鍊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 430,
      "start": 817.75,
      "end": 820.019,
      "text": "這就體現在8月的CPI上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 431,
      "start": 820.019,
      "end": 825.124,
      "text": "3.4%距離美聯儲2%的目標還差得遠",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 432,
      "start": 825.124,
      "end": 827.626,
      "text": "第二在發債的競爭者",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 433,
      "start": 827.626,
      "end": 830.996,
      "text": "一邊是政府為了填補1.8萬億的年度赤字",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 434,
      "start": 830.996,
      "end": 834.7,
      "text": "需要不停的大規模的往市場上倒新債來借錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 435,
      "start": 834.7,
      "end": 838.837,
      "text": "另外還有一個新的體量驚人的競爭者出現了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 436,
      "start": 838.837,
      "end": 839.805,
      "text": "那就是AI",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 437,
      "start": 839.805,
      "end": 841.34,
      "text": "今年到目前為止",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 438,
      "start": 841.34,
      "end": 843.676,
      "text": "美國的科技巨頭為了搞AI基礎設施建設",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 439,
      "start": 843.676,
      "end": 847.479,
      "text": "已經發行了將近2200億美元的公司債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 440,
      "start": 847.479,
      "end": 851.984,
      "text": "而2025年一整年這個數字大約是1080億",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 441,
      "start": 851.984,
      "end": 854.92,
      "text": "就說一年的時間他翻了一倍還有多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 442,
      "start": 854.92,
      "end": 858.49,
      "text": "而公司債給的利息比國債要高得多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 443,
      "start": 858.49,
      "end": 859.859,
      "text": "華爾街的買家們一看",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 444,
      "start": 859.859,
      "end": 861.694,
      "text": "AI給的利息更香",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 445,
      "start": 861.694,
      "end": 864.129,
      "text": "誰還去買美國政府的國債啊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 446,
      "start": 864.129,
      "end": 865.865,
      "text": "所以AI的融資狂潮",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 447,
      "start": 865.865,
      "end": 870.002,
      "text": "就把原本屬於美國國債的買家給挖走了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 448,
      "start": 870.002,
      "end": 873.038,
      "text": "第三是需求端的老買家跑路了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 449,
      "start": 873.038,
      "end": 874.84,
      "text": "根據6月份最新的數據",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 450,
      "start": 874.84,
      "end": 877.042,
      "text": "日本的美國國債減持了264億",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 451,
      "start": 877.042,
      "end": 878.477,
      "text": "中國減持了259億",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 452,
      "start": 878.477,
      "end": 880.012,
      "text": "英國減持了87億",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 453,
      "start": 880.012,
      "end": 881.814,
      "text": "外國投資者短短幾個月",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 454,
      "start": 881.814,
      "end": 884.316,
      "text": "是拋售了近1900億的美債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 455,
      "start": 884.316,
      "end": 887.219,
      "text": "但是黃金儲備卻在登頂",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 456,
      "start": 887.219,
      "end": 888.153,
      "text": "到今年4月",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 457,
      "start": 888.153,
      "end": 890.222,
      "text": "全球央行手裡的黃金儲備",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 458,
      "start": 890.222,
      "end": 892.958,
      "text": "總價值達到了將近4萬億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 459,
      "start": 892.958,
      "end": 894.059,
      "text": "在人類歷史上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 460,
      "start": 894.059,
      "end": 895.761,
      "text": "是第一次超趕了美債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 461,
      "start": 895.761,
      "end": 898.397,
      "text": "成為全球第一大儲備資產",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 462,
      "start": 898.397,
      "end": 900.599,
      "text": "所以就是通脹在漲",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 463,
      "start": 900.599,
      "end": 902.134,
      "text": "發債在爆",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 464,
      "start": 902.134,
      "end": 903.502,
      "text": "買家在跑",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 465,
      "start": 903.502,
      "end": 907.439,
      "text": "這導致了一個讓美聯儲絕望和窒息的畫面",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 466,
      "start": 907.439,
      "end": 911.043,
      "text": "朋友們注意聽下面這一組關鍵的數據",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 467,
      "start": 911.043,
      "end": 913.445,
      "text": "從2024年9月到2025年底",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 468,
      "start": 913.445,
      "end": 915.347,
      "text": "美聯儲連續降息6次",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 469,
      "start": 915.347,
      "end": 917.216,
      "text": "一共降了175個基點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 470,
      "start": 917.216,
      "end": 918.617,
      "text": "但是這同一時期",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 471,
      "start": 918.617,
      "end": 920.886,
      "text": "10年期的美債收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 472,
      "start": 920.886,
      "end": 923.522,
      "text": "卻只下行了36個基點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 473,
      "start": 923.522,
      "end": 924.556,
      "text": "而到了今天",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 474,
      "start": 924.556,
      "end": 925.958,
      "text": "美聯儲的政策利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 475,
      "start": 925.958,
      "end": 928.694,
      "text": "比降息之前低了150個基點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 476,
      "start": 928.694,
      "end": 931.063,
      "text": "可是10年期美債的收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 477,
      "start": 931.063,
      "end": 932.298,
      "text": "卻比降息前",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 478,
      "start": 932.298,
      "end": 935.234,
      "text": "反而還高出了87個基點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 479,
      "start": 935.234,
      "end": 938.637,
      "text": "這就是美聯儲把降息的左轉方向盤",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 480,
      "start": 938.637,
      "end": 940.239,
      "text": "猛打了175度",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 481,
      "start": 940.239,
      "end": 942.808,
      "text": "結果車頭只偏了36度",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 482,
      "start": 942.808,
      "end": 943.642,
      "text": "打到今天",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 483,
      "start": 943.642,
      "end": 945.711,
      "text": "這車子不僅沒往左轉",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 484,
      "start": 945.711,
      "end": 947.546,
      "text": "反而還往右邊跑了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 485,
      "start": 947.546,
      "end": 948.213,
      "text": "是不是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 486,
      "start": 948.213,
      "end": 950.049,
      "text": "很搞笑啊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 487,
      "start": 950.049,
      "end": 952.017,
      "text": "但是不但不搞笑",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 488,
      "start": 952.017,
      "end": 953.185,
      "text": "對於業內人士來說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 489,
      "start": 953.185,
      "end": 955.454,
      "text": "反而很恐怖",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 490,
      "start": 955.454,
      "end": 956.221,
      "text": "為什麼呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 491,
      "start": 956.221,
      "end": 958.624,
      "text": "美聯儲能決定的是隔夜利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 492,
      "start": 958.624,
      "end": 961.427,
      "text": "就是銀行之間借一天錢的價格",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 493,
      "start": 961.427,
      "end": 964.096,
      "text": "但是真正決定老百姓房貸利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 494,
      "start": 964.096,
      "end": 965.164,
      "text": "企業融資成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 495,
      "start": 965.164,
      "end": 967.099,
      "text": "政府發新債成本的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 496,
      "start": 967.099,
      "end": 970.369,
      "text": "是10年期和30年期的國債收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 497,
      "start": 970.369,
      "end": 970.936,
      "text": "也就是說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 498,
      "start": 970.936,
      "end": 973.439,
      "text": "短端是美聯儲說了算的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 499,
      "start": 973.439,
      "end": 975.941,
      "text": "長端是市場說了算的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 500,
      "start": 975.941,
      "end": 976.842,
      "text": "美聯儲降息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 501,
      "start": 976.842,
      "end": 978.21,
      "text": "就好比中央水廠",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 502,
      "start": 978.21,
      "end": 980.913,
      "text": "宣布下調自來水的出廠價格",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 503,
      "start": 980.913,
      "end": 981.747,
      "text": "按照常理",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 504,
      "start": 981.747,
      "end": 983.048,
      "text": "出廠價格一降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 505,
      "start": 983.048,
      "end": 986.185,
      "text": "終端農貿市場的菜價自然就跟著跌了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 506,
      "start": 986.185,
      "end": 988.554,
      "text": "美聯儲把官方的利率砍下來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 507,
      "start": 988.554,
      "end": 991.69,
      "text": "房貸和企業貸款成本也該跟著降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 508,
      "start": 991.69,
      "end": 993.726,
      "text": "但是在這過去一年裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 509,
      "start": 993.726,
      "end": 995.427,
      "text": "我們剛剛說的兩組數字",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 510,
      "start": 995.427,
      "end": 997.196,
      "text": "就是兩個荒謬的一幕",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 511,
      "start": 997.196,
      "end": 998.097,
      "text": "第一階段",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 512,
      "start": 998.097,
      "end": 999.398,
      "text": "就是往左轉",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 513,
      "start": 999.398,
      "end": 1000.733,
      "text": "它往右去了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 514,
      "start": 1000.733,
      "end": 1002.067,
      "text": "官方降息了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 515,
      "start": 1002.067,
      "end": 1003.469,
      "text": "市場的反應極其冷淡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 516,
      "start": 1003.469,
      "end": 1004.603,
      "text": "大家根本就不跟",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 517,
      "start": 1004.603,
      "end": 1006.939,
      "text": "實際貸款成本幾乎沒怎麼降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 518,
      "start": 1006.939,
      "end": 1009.174,
      "text": "說明市場已經不買賬了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 519,
      "start": 1009.174,
      "end": 1009.808,
      "text": "第二階段",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 520,
      "start": 1009.808,
      "end": 1011.91,
      "text": "就是官方降息150點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 521,
      "start": 1011.91,
      "end": 1013.579,
      "text": "這收益率不降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 522,
      "start": 1013.579,
      "end": 1015.18,
      "text": "反飆升了87點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 523,
      "start": 1015.18,
      "end": 1017.416,
      "text": "這就是最荒謬的地方了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 524,
      "start": 1017.416,
      "end": 1019.218,
      "text": "美聯儲明明在降息寬鬆",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 525,
      "start": 1019.218,
      "end": 1021.153,
      "text": "但是居民買房的房貸利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 526,
      "start": 1021.153,
      "end": 1022.354,
      "text": "企業貸款成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 527,
      "start": 1022.354,
      "end": 1023.822,
      "text": "反而更貴了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 528,
      "start": 1023.822,
      "end": 1024.59,
      "text": "這說明什麼",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 529,
      "start": 1024.59,
      "end": 1025.491,
      "text": "市場覺得",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 530,
      "start": 1025.491,
      "end": 1027.393,
      "text": "我今天把錢借給你10年",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 531,
      "start": 1027.393,
      "end": 1029.294,
      "text": "等你10年之後還我錢的時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 532,
      "start": 1029.294,
      "end": 1031.13,
      "text": "這錢可能大幅縮水",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 533,
      "start": 1031.13,
      "end": 1033.165,
      "text": "因為我不信沒有通脹",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 534,
      "start": 1033.165,
      "end": 1033.699,
      "text": "所以不行",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 535,
      "start": 1033.699,
      "end": 1035.567,
      "text": "我必須要收更高的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 536,
      "start": 1035.567,
      "end": 1037.836,
      "text": "來抵消未來的通脹風險",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 537,
      "start": 1037.836,
      "end": 1040.272,
      "text": "這就是為什麼財政部發美債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 538,
      "start": 1040.272,
      "end": 1042.307,
      "text": "現在要用更高的利息去買",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 539,
      "start": 1042.307,
      "end": 1045.21,
      "text": "這就是這場美債風暴真正的含義",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 540,
      "start": 1045.21,
      "end": 1047.479,
      "text": "它並不是一次普通的市場波動",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 541,
      "start": 1047.479,
      "end": 1048.747,
      "text": "它是債券市場",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 542,
      "start": 1048.747,
      "end": 1050.949,
      "text": "對美聯儲的一次公開脅迫",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 543,
      "start": 1050.949,
      "end": 1052.418,
      "text": "用金融市場的語言來說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 544,
      "start": 1052.418,
      "end": 1053.552,
      "text": "就是你不加",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 545,
      "start": 1053.552,
      "end": 1054.987,
      "text": "我替你加",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 546,
      "start": 1054.987,
      "end": 1058.39,
      "text": "那川普為什麼要一直嚷嚷著降息呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 547,
      "start": 1058.39,
      "end": 1060.459,
      "text": "他又是什麼樣的角度呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 548,
      "start": 1060.459,
      "end": 1061.226,
      "text": "前面我們說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 549,
      "start": 1061.226,
      "end": 1063.495,
      "text": "美國現在背著40萬億美元的債務",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 550,
      "start": 1063.495,
      "end": 1065.864,
      "text": "今年光是要支付的債務利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 551,
      "start": 1065.864,
      "end": 1067.533,
      "text": "就是1.2萬億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 552,
      "start": 1067.533,
      "end": 1070.569,
      "text": "這筆錢比一年的國防預算還要高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 553,
      "start": 1070.569,
      "end": 1073.305,
      "text": "而且隨著舊債到期換新債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 554,
      "start": 1073.305,
      "end": 1075.641,
      "text": "利息的雪球還在越滾越大",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 555,
      "start": 1075.641,
      "end": 1077.376,
      "text": "川普的角度很好理解",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 556,
      "start": 1077.376,
      "end": 1079.411,
      "text": "我這邊拼命給你拉投資",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 557,
      "start": 1079.411,
      "end": 1080.078,
      "text": "搞關稅",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 558,
      "start": 1080.078,
      "end": 1081.747,
      "text": "經濟確實增長了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 559,
      "start": 1081.747,
      "end": 1084.149,
      "text": "你美聯儲憑什麼把這利率開的這麼高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 560,
      "start": 1084.149,
      "end": 1086.652,
      "text": "你這不是在稀釋我的經濟增長嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 561,
      "start": 1086.652,
      "end": 1087.519,
      "text": "因為利息高了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 562,
      "start": 1087.519,
      "end": 1089.455,
      "text": "就沖抵了部分經濟的增長",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 563,
      "start": 1089.455,
      "end": 1092.09,
      "text": "要是能夠把這利率降到1%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 564,
      "start": 1092.09,
      "end": 1093.859,
      "text": "刺激股市和實體經濟不說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 565,
      "start": 1093.859,
      "end": 1096.328,
      "text": "政府還可以一年省下幾千億的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 566,
      "start": 1096.328,
      "end": 1097.729,
      "text": "用這個經濟增長",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 567,
      "start": 1097.729,
      "end": 1100.132,
      "text": "來逐漸的把債務稀釋掉",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 568,
      "start": 1100.132,
      "end": 1100.666,
      "text": "不好嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 569,
      "start": 1100.666,
      "end": 1102.634,
      "text": "這個聽起來非常有道理",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 570,
      "start": 1102.634,
      "end": 1103.135,
      "text": "朋友們",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 571,
      "start": 1103.135,
      "end": 1104.67,
      "text": "您覺得川普說的有道理嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 572,
      "start": 1104.67,
      "end": 1105.737,
      "text": "覺得有道理的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 573,
      "start": 1105.737,
      "end": 1107.539,
      "text": "點個讚告訴我",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 574,
      "start": 1107.539,
      "end": 1109.308,
      "text": "你可能會想",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 575,
      "start": 1109.308,
      "end": 1111.877,
      "text": "川普關注的是赤字問題",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 576,
      "start": 1111.877,
      "end": 1114.313,
      "text": "美聯儲考慮的更多是通脹問題",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 577,
      "start": 1114.313,
      "end": 1115.814,
      "text": "赤字和通脹",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 578,
      "start": 1115.814,
      "end": 1117.049,
      "text": "哪個更重要呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 579,
      "start": 1117.049,
      "end": 1119.418,
      "text": "哪個重要解決哪個不就行了嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 580,
      "start": 1119.418,
      "end": 1120.185,
      "text": "哪個問題",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 581,
      "start": 1120.185,
      "end": 1121.587,
      "text": "更加緊迫",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 582,
      "start": 1121.587,
      "end": 1122.454,
      "text": "更危險",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 583,
      "start": 1122.454,
      "end": 1123.589,
      "text": "它們的區別",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 584,
      "start": 1123.589,
      "end": 1125.824,
      "text": "在於這個病理的屬性不同",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 585,
      "start": 1125.824,
      "end": 1128.627,
      "text": "赤字是高血壓一樣的慢性病",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 586,
      "start": 1128.627,
      "end": 1130.195,
      "text": "它拖久了確實會要命",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 587,
      "start": 1130.195,
      "end": 1132.097,
      "text": "但是它留了時間窗口",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 588,
      "start": 1132.097,
      "end": 1133.999,
      "text": "解決它可能花上個幾年",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 589,
      "start": 1133.999,
      "end": 1135.033,
      "text": "甚至幾十年",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 590,
      "start": 1135.033,
      "end": 1136.368,
      "text": "靠提升經濟增速",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 591,
      "start": 1136.368,
      "end": 1137.436,
      "text": "改革稅制",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 592,
      "start": 1137.436,
      "end": 1138.637,
      "text": "削減政府開支",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 593,
      "start": 1138.637,
      "end": 1140.038,
      "text": "都可以慢慢調理",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 594,
      "start": 1140.038,
      "end": 1140.839,
      "text": "更何況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 595,
      "start": 1140.839,
      "end": 1141.673,
      "text": "治這個病",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 596,
      "start": 1141.673,
      "end": 1143.575,
      "text": "是需要國會立法的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 597,
      "start": 1143.575,
      "end": 1146.211,
      "text": "美聯儲根本沒有這個手術刀",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 598,
      "start": 1146.211,
      "end": 1147.012,
      "text": "而通脹",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 599,
      "start": 1147.012,
      "end": 1150.015,
      "text": "則是心梗發作一樣的急性病",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 600,
      "start": 1150.015,
      "end": 1151.216,
      "text": "一旦發生",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 601,
      "start": 1151.216,
      "end": 1153.018,
      "text": "它可能會在短短幾個月內",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 602,
      "start": 1153.018,
      "end": 1154.353,
      "text": "就擊穿貨幣信用",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 603,
      "start": 1154.353,
      "end": 1155.854,
      "text": "摧毀老百姓的購買力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 604,
      "start": 1155.854,
      "end": 1157.489,
      "text": "美聯儲手裡的工具箱",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 605,
      "start": 1157.489,
      "end": 1159.525,
      "text": "就是爲救急用的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 606,
      "start": 1159.525,
      "end": 1163.095,
      "text": "所以這兩個的深層病理屬性不同",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 607,
      "start": 1163.095,
      "end": 1165.397,
      "text": "那還有更深的邏輯在於",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 608,
      "start": 1165.397,
      "end": 1167.633,
      "text": "如果放任這個急性病發作",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 609,
      "start": 1167.633,
      "end": 1170.169,
      "text": "慢性病可能會無藥可救",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 610,
      "start": 1170.169,
      "end": 1170.903,
      "text": "為什麼",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 611,
      "start": 1170.903,
      "end": 1173.472,
      "text": "一旦市場認定通脹失控",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 612,
      "start": 1173.472,
      "end": 1176.575,
      "text": "全球投資者就會要求更高的風險溢價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 613,
      "start": 1176.575,
      "end": 1178.01,
      "text": "所以收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 614,
      "start": 1178.01,
      "end": 1179.912,
      "text": "10年期30年期的收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 615,
      "start": 1179.912,
      "end": 1181.346,
      "text": "一定會水漲船高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 616,
      "start": 1181.346,
      "end": 1181.98,
      "text": "到時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 617,
      "start": 1181.98,
      "end": 1183.815,
      "text": "所有新發行的國債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 618,
      "start": 1183.815,
      "end": 1186.285,
      "text": "都得按照更高的利率去定價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 619,
      "start": 1186.285,
      "end": 1187.219,
      "text": "這就意味著",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 620,
      "start": 1187.219,
      "end": 1189.955,
      "text": "政府未來要償還的利息會更高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 621,
      "start": 1189.955,
      "end": 1192.357,
      "text": "赤字就會被不斷沉重的利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 622,
      "start": 1192.357,
      "end": 1193.525,
      "text": "越推越高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 623,
      "start": 1193.525,
      "end": 1197.629,
      "text": "經濟增速也會被高昂的借貸成本拖垮",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 624,
      "start": 1197.629,
      "end": 1199.031,
      "text": "所以這兩件事的順序",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 625,
      "start": 1199.031,
      "end": 1201.4,
      "text": "就得是要先守住這個物價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 626,
      "start": 1201.4,
      "end": 1203.835,
      "text": "才有可能去談低利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 627,
      "start": 1203.835,
      "end": 1205.17,
      "text": "但是話又說回來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 628,
      "start": 1205.17,
      "end": 1207.072,
      "text": "川普強調的赤字危機",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 629,
      "start": 1207.072,
      "end": 1208.307,
      "text": "確實是美聯儲",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 630,
      "start": 1208.307,
      "end": 1209.508,
      "text": "乃至美國政府",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 631,
      "start": 1209.508,
      "end": 1211.41,
      "text": "避不開的房間裡的大象",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 632,
      "start": 1211.41,
      "end": 1213.011,
      "text": "站在美聯儲的視角",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 633,
      "start": 1213.011,
      "end": 1214.413,
      "text": "沒有物價的穩定",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 634,
      "start": 1214.413,
      "end": 1215.247,
      "text": "這個低利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 635,
      "start": 1215.247,
      "end": 1217.115,
      "text": "不過是沙灘上的城堡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 636,
      "start": 1217.115,
      "end": 1218.55,
      "text": "可是赤字危機",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 637,
      "start": 1218.55,
      "end": 1221.987,
      "text": "卻是懸在美國頭頂的達摩克利斯之劍",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 638,
      "start": 1221.987,
      "end": 1223.388,
      "text": "那接下來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 639,
      "start": 1223.388,
      "end": 1224.056,
      "text": "會怎麼走",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 640,
      "start": 1224.056,
      "end": 1225.591,
      "text": "有三個觀察窗口",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 641,
      "start": 1225.591,
      "end": 1227.626,
      "text": "第一個窗口是12月份",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 642,
      "start": 1227.626,
      "end": 1230.395,
      "text": "昨天公布的美聯儲點陣圖顯示",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 643,
      "start": 1230.395,
      "end": 1231.83,
      "text": "美聯儲18位官員裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 644,
      "start": 1231.83,
      "end": 1235.1,
      "text": "有12位預計今年還會再加息25個基點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 645,
      "start": 1235.1,
      "end": 1236.802,
      "text": "4位預計會加兩次",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 646,
      "start": 1236.802,
      "end": 1239.338,
      "text": "只有兩位認為會點到為止",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 647,
      "start": 1239.338,
      "end": 1240.172,
      "text": "同時",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 648,
      "start": 1240.172,
      "end": 1243.609,
      "text": "官員們對明年和後年的利率預測中值",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 649,
      "start": 1243.609,
      "end": 1245.11,
      "text": "都上調了50個基點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 650,
      "start": 1245.11,
      "end": 1246.278,
      "text": "市場那邊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 651,
      "start": 1246.278,
      "end": 1247.646,
      "text": "有交易員已經在押注",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 652,
      "start": 1247.646,
      "end": 1249.748,
      "text": "到明年年中還會有三次加息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 653,
      "start": 1249.748,
      "end": 1252.718,
      "text": "所以這很有可能不是最後一次",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 654,
      "start": 1252.718,
      "end": 1254.853,
      "text": "而且這個可能性非常大",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 655,
      "start": 1254.853,
      "end": 1257.122,
      "text": "第二個窗口是油價和中東",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 656,
      "start": 1257.122,
      "end": 1258.657,
      "text": "如果中東局勢惡化",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 657,
      "start": 1258.657,
      "end": 1260.425,
      "text": "柴油和汽油繼續往上頂",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 658,
      "start": 1260.425,
      "end": 1261.526,
      "text": "那麼我們很有可能",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 659,
      "start": 1261.526,
      "end": 1265.197,
      "text": "就會面對一個更長更痛的緊縮周期",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 660,
      "start": 1265.197,
      "end": 1266.832,
      "text": "第三也是最重要的一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 661,
      "start": 1266.832,
      "end": 1270.068,
      "text": "那就是30年期美債收益率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 662,
      "start": 1270.068,
      "end": 1272.07,
      "text": "這個是檢驗美聯儲這次行動",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 663,
      "start": 1272.07,
      "end": 1273.905,
      "text": "是否成功的真正指標",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 664,
      "start": 1273.905,
      "end": 1275.674,
      "text": "如果這次加息之後",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 665,
      "start": 1275.674,
      "end": 1277.943,
      "text": "長端的收益率開始回落了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 666,
      "start": 1277.943,
      "end": 1281.346,
      "text": "說明市場相信了美聯儲的抗通脹決心",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 667,
      "start": 1281.346,
      "end": 1283.882,
      "text": "願意降低通脹的溢價了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 668,
      "start": 1283.882,
      "end": 1286.918,
      "text": "那也說明這步美聯儲是走對了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 669,
      "start": 1286.918,
      "end": 1288.453,
      "text": "但是如果加息之後",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 670,
      "start": 1288.453,
      "end": 1291.256,
      "text": "長端的收益率依然頑固不動",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 671,
      "start": 1291.256,
      "end": 1292.958,
      "text": "甚至還在繼續往上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 672,
      "start": 1292.958,
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      "text": "那就說明美聯儲還會再加息",
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      "id": 673,
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      "text": "而且到後來恐怕就不是貨幣政策的問題了",
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      "id": 674,
      "start": 1299.898,
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      "text": "而是一個得由華盛頓通過控制發債和財政預算",
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    {
      "id": 675,
      "start": 1304.269,
      "end": 1306.571,
      "text": "才可以真正解決的問題了",
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      "id": 676,
      "start": 1306.571,
      "end": 1309.207,
      "text": "從2022年的暴烈加息",
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    {
      "id": 677,
      "start": 1309.207,
      "end": 1311.076,
      "text": "到2024年的急忙降息",
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    {
      "id": 678,
      "start": 1311.076,
      "end": 1314.379,
      "text": "再到今天2026年的被逼急剎重加息",
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      "id": 679,
      "start": 1314.379,
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      "text": "美聯儲走出了這一條罕見的雙峰曲線",
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    },
    {
      "id": 680,
      "start": 1317.716,
      "end": 1318.517,
      "text": "折射出的",
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      "id": 681,
      "start": 1318.517,
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      "text": "是我們身處的這一個充滿未知和巨變的時代",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 682,
      "start": 1322.12,
      "end": 1324.489,
      "text": "赤字是懸在頭頂的劍",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 683,
      "start": 1324.489,
      "end": 1326.525,
      "text": "通脹是踩在腳下的火",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 684,
      "start": 1326.525,
      "end": 1328.794,
      "text": "白宮想要不痛不癢的低利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    {
      "id": 685,
      "start": 1328.794,
      "end": 1331.329,
      "text": "華爾街想要只漲不跌的資產泡沫",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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      "id": 686,
      "start": 1331.329,
      "end": 1335.167,
      "text": "而美聯儲只能夠在大家信任的邊緣走鋼絲",
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    {
      "id": 687,
      "start": 1335.167,
      "end": 1337.202,
      "text": "這場高空走鋼絲的結局",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 688,
      "start": 1337.202,
      "end": 1339.571,
      "text": "很快就會順著利率和匯率",
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    {
      "id": 689,
      "start": 1339.571,
      "end": 1342.307,
      "text": "傳導到我們每一個人的資產賬本上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    {
      "id": 690,
      "start": 1342.307,
      "end": 1342.874,
      "text": "聊到這裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 691,
      "start": 1342.874,
      "end": 1345.21,
      "text": "我想把問題留給屏幕前的朋友們",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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      "id": 692,
      "start": 1345.21,
      "end": 1348.146,
      "text": "你覺得美聯儲這次狠下心調頭加息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    },
    {
      "id": 693,
      "start": 1348.146,
      "end": 1351.783,
      "text": "到底能不能壓住這逐漸死灰復燃的通脹",
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    },
    {
      "id": 694,
      "start": 1351.783,
      "end": 1355.854,
      "text": "面對接下來可能更長更痛的高利率時代",
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    {
      "id": 695,
      "start": 1355.854,
      "end": 1358.59,
      "text": "您覺得普通人最該守的是現金",
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    {
      "id": 696,
      "start": 1358.59,
      "end": 1360.792,
      "text": "黃金還是核心資產",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    },
    {
      "id": 697,
      "start": 1360.792,
      "end": 1362.561,
      "text": "您會選哪一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 698,
      "start": 1362.561,
      "end": 1364.596,
      "text": "在評論區留言告訴我",
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    },
    {
      "id": 699,
      "start": 1364.596,
      "end": 1366.531,
      "text": "也歡迎一起啟發大家",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 700,
      "start": 1366.531,
      "end": 1367.466,
      "text": "節目的最後",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 701,
      "start": 1367.466,
      "end": 1370.035,
      "text": "想跟老朋友們分享兩個旅遊行程",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 702,
      "start": 1370.035,
      "end": 1372.938,
      "text": "想去日本又怕大團行程太趕",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 703,
      "start": 1372.938,
      "end": 1374.039,
      "text": "體力吃不消的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 704,
      "start": 1374.039,
      "end": 1378.009,
      "text": "現在希望之旅的這個日本關東關西溫泉之旅",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 705,
      "start": 1378.009,
      "end": 1379.511,
      "text": "是只有10個人的小團",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 706,
      "start": 1379.511,
      "end": 1382.247,
      "text": "從10月14日到21日8天7夜",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 707,
      "start": 1382.247,
      "end": 1384.049,
      "text": "帶您慢遊富士山",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 708,
      "start": 1384.049,
      "end": 1385.016,
      "text": "東京和京都",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    {
      "id": 709,
      "start": 1385.016,
      "end": 1388.253,
      "text": "還安排了兩天晚上的溫泉幫您放鬆身心",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 710,
      "start": 1388.253,
      "end": 1389.654,
      "text": "人少有伴",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 711,
      "start": 1389.654,
      "end": 1390.922,
      "text": "彼此也好照應",
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      "id": 712,
      "start": 1390.922,
      "end": 1392.758,
      "text": "如果11月比較方便的話",
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    {
      "id": 713,
      "start": 1392.758,
      "end": 1395.394,
      "text": "可以考慮他們11月16日出發的",
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    {
      "id": 714,
      "start": 1395.394,
      "end": 1397.529,
      "text": "台灣環島行8天7夜",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 715,
      "start": 1397.529,
      "end": 1400.132,
      "text": "從台北到台南、再到阿里山",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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    {
      "id": 716,
      "start": 1400.132,
      "end": 1401.767,
      "text": "吃住都很好適應",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 717,
      "start": 1401.767,
      "end": 1403.068,
      "text": "台灣是一個好地方",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 718,
      "start": 1403.068,
      "end": 1404.236,
      "text": "有台灣的朋友",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
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      "start": 1404.236,
      "end": 1407.172,
      "text": "在這裡也歡迎在評論區跟我們的朋友互動一下",
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    {
      "id": 720,
      "start": 1407.172,
      "end": 1408.907,
      "text": "日本團現在還有幾個名額",
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    {
      "id": 721,
      "start": 1408.907,
      "end": 1409.975,
      "text": "9月20日截止",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 722,
      "start": 1409.975,
      "end": 1412.411,
      "text": "想去的老朋友請把握這幾天來報名",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 723,
      "start": 1412.411,
      "end": 1413.712,
      "text": "台灣團時間還早",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 724,
      "start": 1413.712,
      "end": 1414.846,
      "text": "也歡迎先了解",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 725,
      "start": 1414.846,
      "end": 1418.116,
      "text": "諮詢報名請致電1-855-955-5227",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 726,
      "start": 1418.116,
      "end": 1421.186,
      "text": "或發短信至961961",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 727,
      "start": 1421.186,
      "end": 1424.122,
      "text": "詳細的行程請點擊描述欄的網站",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 728,
      "start": 1424.122,
      "end": 1425.824,
      "text": "好啦 我們今天就聊到這裡",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 729,
      "start": 1425.824,
      "end": 1426.858,
      "text": "感謝朋友們的觀看",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 730,
      "start": 1426.858,
      "end": 1428.727,
      "text": "離開之前如果還沒有給我點贊的話",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 731,
      "start": 1428.727,
      "end": 1429.995,
      "text": "請給我點個贊吧",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 732,
      "start": 1429.995,
      "end": 1431.396,
      "text": "新朋友歡迎您訂閱真觀點",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 733,
      "start": 1431.396,
      "end": 1433.598,
      "text": "也歡迎點擊那個粉絲hype",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 734,
      "start": 1433.598,
      "end": 1435.1,
      "text": "那個hype的熱推功能",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 735,
      "start": 1435.1,
      "end": 1436.868,
      "text": "幫我的視頻傳播的更廣更遠",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 736,
      "start": 1436.868,
      "end": 1438.837,
      "text": "最後也請朋友們把我的視頻",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 737,
      "start": 1438.837,
      "end": 1440.305,
      "text": "轉發分享給更多的朋友",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 738,
      "start": 1440.305,
      "end": 1443.241,
      "text": "幫助更多的人了解現在的經濟狀況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 739,
      "start": 1443.241,
      "end": 1444.643,
      "text": "好啦 那我們今天就聊到這裡",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 740,
      "start": 1444.643,
      "end": 1445.71,
      "text": "感謝朋友們的觀看啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 741,
      "start": 1445.71,
      "end": 1447.779,
      "text": "我們週六同一時間又在真觀點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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      "id": 742,
      "start": 1447.779,
      "end": 1448.947,
      "text": "不見不散囉 拜拜",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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