{ "text": "大家好\n欢迎来到《文昭谈古论今》\n开头先提一个问题\n您知道现在世界上各个国家\n一共欠了多少债吗\n根据国际金融协会的一份报告\n截至到2026年3月底\n全球的负债总额\n已经达到了353万亿美元\n也就是353这个数字后面跟12个0\n数字已经大到了失去了意义是不是啊\n换算一下您就有感觉了\n如果把这笔债\n平摊到全球每个人头上\n不管是刚出生的婴儿\n还是临终的老人\n每个人都能摊到4万多美元\n再接下来又来了一系列问题\n那是不是要从你我的兜里\n掏出4万多美元来还债呢\n还有全球负债最多的国家\n是不是一定就会破产呢\n又有没有国家\n从这场游戏里赚到钱呢\n以及万一国家破产了你我怎么办呢\n这些问题普通人平常想不到\n但是一想起来\n就让人后脊梁骨冒汗\n那今天就让我们来一一拆解这些问题\n让我们先从日本东京发生的一起故事说起\n2025年5月20日\n日本财务省照例举行了一场\n20年期国债的拍卖会\n这种拍卖会其实每个月都会有\n它没什么新闻价值\n但是这一次它成了新闻\n因为这一次投标的倍数跌到了2.5倍\n是2012年以来最低的一次\n换成白话说就是\n这一次日本政府想借的钱\n没那么多人抢着给他借了\n消息一出20年期日债的收益率\n立刻飙升到了2000年以来的最高水平\n债券的收益率上升和价格下跌\n其实是同一件事\n连带着30年和40年期\n日债的收益率也一起飙升\n三天之后日本最大的寿险公司\n日本生命保险公布了一组数字\n光是他们手上持有的日本国债\n帐面浮亏就达到了3.6万亿日元\n相当于250多亿美元\n几乎是上年同期的两倍\n那么一场几乎没有人在意的政府拍卖会\n怎么会让一家寿险公司\n一口气就凭空“亏掉”了250多亿美元呢\n原因很简单\n那张你以为只是政府打出来的欠条\n其实早已经躺在了千千万万人的保单\n银行存款和退休金里\n国债跌 它不只是政府一家的事\n而是整个链条上的所有人\n都跟着跌\n那这条链子是怎么样一环接一环扣上的呢\n我们就先从最上游\n政府怎么把钱借出来的 这事说起\n说到欠债您的印象可能是\n全球欠债最凶的国家是美国\n的确没错\n2026年美国的债务总规模\n已经超过了40万亿美元\n比中国和日本加起来都还要多\n但是如果比的不是总金额\n而是债务规模占这个国家GDP的比例呢\n全球冠军就不是美国了\n是谁呢 是日本\n日本的存量债务余额\n已经是它GDP的两倍多了\n这也是为什么刚刚讲的那场拍卖会\n全世界都在看\n所以欠最多的和欠债最重的\n其实是两个不同的国家\n全世界欠下的这353万亿美元的债\n其实拆分开来是由三部分组成的\n政府是欠债的最大头\n它欠了106.7万亿美元\n企业欠了100.6万亿\n家庭欠64.6万亿\n其实还有第四部分\n就是金融机构彼此之间的负债\n还没有算进来\n那咱们今天重点说政府\n它是怎么样欠下一屁股债的呢\n说穿了很简单\n就是政府钱不够花\n又不想加税惹人抱怨\n于是就向公众和国际投资者发行国债\n这个国债是怎么卖出去的呢\n政府会定期开拍卖会\n在市场上有一批被称之为\n“一级交易商”的买家\n主要是有资格参与政府拍卖的大银行\n他们会第一手把国债给买下来\n大银行买到手的国债\n会在转手卖到下一层\n比如像日本生命保险公司\n这样的寿险公司\n还有退休基金各国的央行\n以及我们后面要谈到的各国主权基金\n一层一层转下去\n国债的持有人就会越来越分散\n所以掰开了揉碎了\n你看这些退休基金和保险公司\n他们所持有的底层资产\n其实很大一部分都是国债\n那么在接下来\n这些机构们用来买国债的钱\n归根到底又是来自于哪里呢\n其实就是来自于你我\n是你交的保费 是你的退休金\n和银行里的存款\n这个链条一环扣一环\n没有一块钱是凭空生出来的\n但是到这里就出现了一个关键的岔路口\n就是所有国家都走这条路\n政府都发债\n那为什么有的国家一路平稳\n而另一些国家就半路爆雷了呢\n俗话说“虱子多了不咬债多了不愁”\n债多了真的不愁吗\n当然不会嘛\n是债就会愁 除非不用还\n可是不用还了也不叫债了 对不对\n只是这个愁有人急有人不急\n那就要看你欠的是“谁的货币”\n我们举一个负债率还不算夸张的例子\n阿根廷\n阿根廷在2019年\n它政府欠债占到GDP的比例是90%出头\n比起日本来是轻松一大截\n可是阿根廷却是全球主权违约\n最多的国家之一\n迄今外债违约九次\n2001年那一次\n一口气违约了950多亿美元\n是当时主权债务违约的世界冠军\n阿根廷政府债务占到GDP比例90%\n就垮了\n可是日本是两倍多都还没事\n那差距怎么就这么悬殊呢\n差距就在于你欠的是“谁的货币”\n阿根廷常年出口农产品和原材料\n进口制成品\n它的外贸是常年逆差的\n就只好跑到国际市场上\n不断去借美元计价的外债\n从2016年到2018年两年间\n阿根廷的外债急剧膨胀了70%\n占到了GDP的60%\n那么当阿根廷比索贬值的时候\n你该还的美元是一分钱不少啊\n要换算成比索 于是瞬间膨胀\n你手里的本币再多没用 人家不认啊\n你借的是美元还的也得是美元\n所以照样是还不出来\nUh-oh\n咱们老说阿根廷哭泣\n其实阿根廷还不是最惨的\n至少在国际市场上它还借得着钱\n真正的地狱模式是委内瑞拉\n委内瑞拉是世界上石油储量最丰富的国家\n也曾经躺在石油上富得流油\n但是2014年起风云突变\n国际油价暴跌\n那政府\n已经有大量的福利开支填补不上\n就开始疯狂印钞 填补财政的窟窿\n2018年委内瑞拉全国的通货膨胀率\n达到了惊人的170万%\n你听听是170万%\n你今天存在银行里的钱\n转眼间就只值一个零头了\n阿根廷和委内瑞拉 他们的共同点是\n当政府发生财政危机想印钱的时候\n手里没有一台被世界认可的印钞机\n委内瑞拉也是\n它印再多的玻利瓦尔\n相对于美元债务\n那是一点都没有减少啊\n而日本政府欠的是什么债呢\n是日元债 是自己的本币\n缺钱的时候央行可以直接印\n这就是差距\n老话说：有粮在手 心中不慌\n换成现在金融术语就是\n“有机在手 心中不慌”\n这个“机”就是印钞机\n还真的是会下金蛋的母鸡\n这也是为什么开头说的那场\n日本国债拍卖会\n它所造成的只是“浮亏”\n不是真的“违约”\n在美国这边那就更是这样了\n更加是“有机在手”\n美国政府欠下的那40好几万亿美元的\n天量债务 也是美元债\n也是自己的钱嘛\n而且呢美国经济更加是\n底盘扎实 韧性强大\n所以非但美国没有崩\n反而是世界公认的最安全的债务国\n这里还有一个区别\n不算小小的区别也得强调一下\n就是日本发行的国债\n90%是日本国民自己在买\n而美国欠的债呢\n有相当一部分是外国政府和国际买家在买\n毕竟美元是国际储备货币嘛\n中国台湾和日本都是美债的大买家\n所以同样是自己印钱\n所造成的这个通货膨胀的后果呢\n是日本人自己在扛\n美国则是把相当一部分风险\n分散给了全世界\n美国经济体量又大\nGDP是日本的7.3倍\n所以美国又远比日本要安全\n这里还有一个误解要澄清\n就是“能通过印钞来还债”\n听起来很美好\n就像天上掉馅饼\n可是真相真的是这样吗\n当然不是\n因为债务而拉动的这部分新增货币\n它摊薄了购买力 是什么呀\n那就是通货膨胀嘛\n日本并不是没有付出代价\n它那个超低利率\n再加上薪资停滞延续了几十年\n只不过这个代价是在几十年时间里面\n分摊到了全体国民头上\n后果安静得多\n就不像委内瑞拉这么夯\n通过170万%的通货膨胀\n一次性引爆\n2026年100日元在日本国内的购买力\n比起10年以前2016年\n其实只相当于10年以前的86到87日元\n老百姓是在不知不觉为政府债务买了单\n这也解释了\n为什么世界上几乎每个国家的政府\n都不愿意把债务真的降下来\n因为比起加税和削减福利\n走通货膨胀这条路要安静得多\n比较不容易引起老百姓的直接反弹\n但是很多经济学家已经挑明了真相\n通货膨胀其实就相当于变相加税\n只是把责任给掩盖了起来\n整个系统其实是一套\n谁都不愿意先认输的赌局\n银行手里是攥着国债和退休基金\n保险公司手里又攥着银行的股票\n你的存款和保单呢又流入了整个链条\n就像开头讲的日本生命保险公司\n每一个人同时既负债又是别人的债主\n整个链条一环扣一环\n不知道大家有没有玩过这样一种游戏\n就是两个人\n脸对脸 瞪着眼睛彼此看\n就看谁先撑不住眨眼\n或者先把视线移开\n那这个人就输了\n那放到债务的世界里\n这句话的意思就是说\n当所有的人 包括各国政府\n各国央行商业银行还有投资机构\n他们彼此之间既是债务人\n又是债主关系的时候呢\n其实就进入了一种\n谁也不敢轻举妄动的僵局\n有点像“恐怖的平衡”\n举例说如果中国政府要清仓\n要大举抛售美债\n那么美债的价格会下跌\n收益率会上扬\n美国政府未来的借债成本会上升\n美国一定会痛 那是没跑的\n但是中国政府手上剩下的美债资产\n也会跟着贬值\n外汇储备会价值缩水\n那么人民币汇率就有下跌的压力\n这是一种相互的挟持\n我攥着你的命根子 你捏着我的小辫子\n谁先采取激进的举动\n不管是违约抛售还是紧急收缩\n他要承受的反噬往往比对手还要大\n政府如果真的违约的话\n那会让整个链条上的银行\n还有养老基金全部都垮掉\n如果是老百姓先恐慌了hold不住了\n纷纷把钱从银行里取出来\n变现成东西\n那么银行体系也会垮\n银行一垮整个经济体系都会陷入萧条\n所以所有人就只好默默地承受\n被通货膨胀剥削这个现实\n因此金融的真相一层层深扒下去\n你会发现这真是一个邪性的世界呀\n除了上面讲的政府处理债务的两种模式\n一种是靠通胀慢慢“蚕食”掉债务\n另一种呢是政府直接违约摆烂\n除此之外还有第三种欠钱的方式\n就是欠帐欠的让人算不清楚\n债主都被绕迷糊了\n那当然欠钱的人说多少就是多少了\n那这第三种模式可能有朋友想到了\n就是中国模式\n中国政府的债务总量居世界第二\n但是官方公布的那个负债率数字\n不算夸张\n但是请注意这只是官方公布的\n地方政府才是真正欠债的大头\n市级县级政府所欠的那个城投债\n所谓地方融资平台的债务\n那是不进官方报表的\n国际货币基金组织IMF多次提醒\n中国的这块“隐形政府债务”\n实际规模远超官方公布的数字\n可能达到了百万亿元之巨\n那么这条隐形线索呢\n我们之前多期节目分析过\n这里就不再重复了\n好前面说了全世界哪些国家在欠债\n谁欠的比较重\n那么政府里面有没有赚钱的呢\n当然是有的\n他们赚钱的途径是先存钱\n然后所有这些钱都流进了一个东西\n叫做“主权财富基金”\n再通过这个基金来赚钱\n简单的说主权财富基金\n就是一个国家的政府\n拿自己赚到的钱\n开设的一个巨大的投资帐户\n是在为全体国民的未来理财\n但是这里有个门槛\n就是能够玩这种游戏的政府\n它必须手上得有自己能够支配的“闲钱”\n它可以是来自于政府历年的财政盈余\n也可以是来自于贸易顺差\n也可以是外汇存底当中\n超出了日常维持汇率稳定\n还有经常性贸易结算的那部分\n比较空闲的钱\n但是都有一个共同的性质\n就是他们必须是“赚来的钱”\n不能是借来的钱\n在这些赚钱的政府里最有代表性的\n就是人口六百万的小国新加坡\n新加坡是把它历年攒下来的家底\n分成了三个帐户管理\n一个是负责保命的\n一个是负责稳健增长的\n还有一个是负责赌一把的\n咱们一个一个来拆解啊\n负责保命的这个\n叫做新加坡金融管理局\n缩写是MAS\n它所管理的是新加坡的外汇存底\n目标也只有一个\n就是守住新加坡元的汇率 不要乱动\n所以它的投资风格极为保守\n它手上的钱 必须流动性很高\n随时可以拿出来变现\n能够干预外汇市场的\n所以它所投资的九成都是债券\n宁可少赚 也要保住不出事\n负责稳健增长的这个帐号\n叫做新加坡政府投资公司\n缩写是GIC\n它已经是全球第七大主权基金了\n就光这一家公司所管理的钱\n就已经达到了新加坡一年GDP的一倍多\n新加坡2025年的GDP是5480亿美元\n而GIC就管理着多达9300多亿美元\n它的资产配置也非常乏味教科书式\n有股票债券房地产私募股权\n差不多平均分配\n过去20年它的平均年回报率是3.9%\n不惊艳 但是也是求的一个稳\n而负责玩一把的这个帐号呢\n就叫淡马锡\n淡马锡的脾气和前两家完全不一样\n它从来不碰债券这种很保守的东西\n而是专攻股权私募还有创新公司\n什么心跳玩什么\n它所管理的资金大约是3080亿美元\n风格野 也承担更大的风险\n博取更高的收益\n那是三个帐户三种性格凑在一起\n才是新加坡政府所管理的钱\n但新加坡真正厉害之处\n还不在于这三支基金是怎么样分工\n怎么样赚钱的\n真正厉害之处是在于这三个帐户\n是怎么样和政府财政挂钩的\n是怎么样反哺财政的\n新加坡有一个机制 缩写叫NIRC\n就是这三支基金赚的钱\n会有一半直接划拨给政府财政\n变成当年的财政收入\n另外一半是留下来继续滚雪球\n那在2024年光三支基金划拨给政府的\n这部分赚到的钱就有235亿新元\n那么大家猜一猜这笔钱占到了\n当年政府财政收入的多少呢\n多达五分之一\n比企业税和个人所得税\n所占的比重还要大\n所以新加坡政府的钱包\n有很大一块其实是\n这些基金给它赚出来的钱\n所以新加坡的税收水平\n才能保持比较低嘛\n老百姓才能够轻徭薄赋\n过得比较滋润\n听到这您可能会想\n这么好的模式 别的国家不能学吗\n答案是大部分国家连学的资格都没有\n它有两条门槛\n第一是你政府手上得有“闲钱”\n第二呢就是管理得足够透明\n毕竟你管理的是全体国民的财富嘛\n世界上会赚钱的国家不止新加坡\n中东产油国也很能赚\n当今世界上最大的主权基金\n当属挪威\n挪威主权基金的全称叫做\n“挪威政府全球养老基金”\n截止到2026年8月\n它所管理的资金规模\n达到了2.35万亿美元\n它不只是规模大\n而且它管理的透明度\n在全球主权基金里面也是数一数二的\n它的官网的更新频率达到了一秒13次\n任何人都可以查到\n基金到底买了哪一支股票\n现在全球欠债最多的政府\n美国政府也想加入这场游戏了\n2025年2月 川普总统签署了行政令\n要求美国政府也成立自己的主权基金\n要对标挪威和新加坡\n但问题也来了\n人家的政府手上是有盈余的\n是有可以支配的活钱的\n投入主权基金的钱\n要不然是靠卖石油赚来的\n要不然是靠历年的贸易顺差存下来的\n而美国政府是啥状况\n是财政赤字贸易赤字\n两头空空是没钱的\n你拿什么投入这个“主权基金”呢\n那肯定是不能够再发债的\n所以到现在为止\n美国政府这个主权基金\n钱从何来问题仍然无解\n但是也许啊\n靠川普那个匪夷所思的脑子\n能够琢磨出别人想像不到的财路吧\n那中国呢\n中国有历年外贸顺差所积存下来的\n巨额外汇存底\n也算是能攒钱的\n但是透明度就说不上了\n你可能会觉得有点意外\n一个连自己政府负债率\n都没有办法透明的国家\n居然也是培养出了两支主权基金\n分别是中投和外管局旗下的投资公司\n加起来所管理的资产规模也非常的巨大\n达到了2万亿美元\n但是和美国政府同样的问题\n中国政府也是欠了一屁股债\n特别是地方政府债务\n怎么会还有钱\n拿到海外去搞主权基金呢\n因为这是两本不同的帐\n中国政府欠的钱是什么钱\n是人民币债务\n主要的债主是国内银行和老百姓\n是左口袋换右口袋\n关键是这些债主吧\n政治上非常弱势\n就横眉冷眼不还你债了\n你能怎么样啊 老百姓也没辙\n然而进入主权基金的钱是美元\n它和国内的人民币债务\n压根就不是一个钱包\n中国靠着多年的外贸顺差\n所存下来的美元\n主要的一部分是去了央行\n变成了外汇存底\n另外一部分\n则是去了中投和外管局旗下的\n这些主权基金\n只不过去到主权基金的钱\n投资了哪些项目\n到底是赚了还是亏了呢\n这个资料外界就拿不到了\n同样是靠国家攒下来的钱去投资\n有的国家查得到 有的国家查不到\n而这就是我们接下来要强调的一个风险\n信息差\n在查得到帐的国家\n政府是增加了债务\n那代价就是在相当长时间内\n全民通过通货膨胀去买单\n你说公平不公平呢\n它肯定不公平\n但是它是慢性的 不致命\n而且呢有一个好处就是信息透明\n你只要足够肯动脑子\n也关注《文昭谈古论今》\n搞清楚事情的来龙去脉\n觉察到了问题\n你就能够琢磨出对应之策\n可是在帐本藏起来的国家\n这些钱去了哪你都不知道\n是赚是赔 你也不知道\n在这种情况下一旦出了问题\n就非常突发\n你也无从准备起\n所以在帐本藏起来的国家\n它所造成的信息差\n就等于是斩杀线\n在当今这个世界\n只要是有积蓄和投资的人\n可以说人人都是\n被动地卷入了这场金融游戏\n其实我也是\n那么普通人应该如何自处呢\n今天节目的末尾\n向大家介绍一位朋友\n也是咱们这个频道的金融智囊\n大家看到的很多观点呢\n其实是我向他请教以后\n我自己理解 再转述给大家的\n就是 Jim 张\nJim 你好\n文昭老师 你好\n这里介绍一下\nJim之前是加拿大最大的银行\n皇家银行的私人银行经理\n也就是管理高净值客户的投资经理人\n当然我并不算什么高净值客户\n但是好在通过这个自媒体\n能够结识很多朋友\n现在Jim是在美国\n做酒店的投资收购和管理\n他旗下的酒店集团\n叫做Matlin酒店集团\n一共管理着三家酒店\n一亿多美元的资产\n那Jim就是今天我们节目的嘉宾\n我想请他谈一谈专业的看法\nJim 就是现在世界各国\n其实都是通过\n悄悄的通胀的方式来稀释债务\n说白了\n就是把还债的责任摊在每一个国民头上\n那么普通人面对这种局势\n有什么样的博弈手段吗\n是的\n文昭刚才你提到呢说\n这个这个通货膨胀\n在普通的老百姓身上是悄悄的\n发生的变化 它不是一蹴而就的\n所以呢作为我们普通人\n是有一些方式和方法 来对抗通胀的\n第一条就是不要把自己的大部分资产\n放在这个银行的存款(定存）\n美国叫CD 加拿大叫GIC\n还有短期国债这种投资上\n这是不值得的这是第一个\n第二个呢就是\n你需要投资那些优秀的企业\n因为这些企业它是抗通胀的\n当这个通货膨胀发生的时候\n它通过它的产品\n就能够转嫁到消费者身上\n那最有典型的那我们就\n经常会提到说美国的标普500\n和纳斯达克100\n那就是ETF的VOO\n和纳斯达克的这个100叫QQQ\n那这个长期投资一直是跑赢大盘的\n巴菲特就就特别推荐\n说他不在的时候呢\n他的家人会90% 投资这个VOO\n10%投这个短期国债的\n这是第二种\n还有第三种呢\n这个最近这个Ray Dalio\n就是桥水基金的创始人\n他建议呢这个40万亿\n美国国债之后呢就建议减持国债\n增加黄金的比例\n适合在10%到15%\n当然也适当的\n少量的配置这个数字货币\n像比特币\n对美债难道说美债也有违约的可能吗\n他是这个是这样说的 那个文昭\n作为桥水基金的创始人\n他是说呢\n这个美国国债到了这个程度的时候\n其实是无解的\n而且呢这个未来\n发生这个金融危机的可能性\n会在一到五年会出现\n当然他是这么说\n并不一定金融危机一定会出现\n最初的时候Dalio前几年\n是一直是反对比特币的\n这次呢就是因为\n黄金和比特币的稀缺性\n它不能被重复印出来\n所以呢这个Dalio就是建议增持黄金\n10%到15% 而且增持比特币的\n文昭\n那Jim你是从银行出来\n然后专门去做酒店\n这种实物资产投资的\n是不是也看重了它的抗通胀属性呢\n它是是这样的\n它有两个特别好的属性\n首先我提到说 大型的房地产\n像写字楼 像居民楼这些\n那同时呢酒店这个行业\n这种长住酒店\n尤其是在疫情之后呢\n它的这个高现金流、高入住率\n这个和长期资本增值的这几个优良的属性\n使得长期投资有最好的收益\n和这个长期的资本增值\n这也是非常优良的\n抗通胀的这个投资的选项\n文昭\n那我有一个问题就是说\n代表观众朋友提啊\n就是这种实物资产投资的机会\n它是不是通常 是只适合机构投资人\n或者非常有钱的人\n那普通人有没有可能参与呢\n像酒店这类投资呢\n因为它是门槛相对较高\n通常是几千万美金的这个\n一个标的的收购\n历史上通常是机构投资者多\n那么我们\n尤其我自己从银行出来之后呢\n和一些投资者一起 寻找像万豪\n和这个希尔顿的优质资产\n那我们这个投资也是吸纳投资者的\n投资者也可以参与 文昭\n哦对 就是那种私募的方式\n就是一个酒店标的虽然上千万美元\n但是就像买房子一样\n它有一个首付down payment\n剩下的找银行贷款\n你down payment的可能是几百万\n然后这几百万再\n找几个私募股权投资者\n一个人出一部分 认购一部分股权\n这样是吧\n完全是这样的\n对 这个标的买下来\n是的\n那也就是说这样的投资\n它仍然是有一定门槛的\n但是说对于普通人来讲的话\n它还是起点比较高的对吧\n其实有很多人其实也是可以达得到的\n如果你有兴趣的话\n可以到我的网站\nMatlinHotels来看一下\n也可以到我的频道上\n我有很多次介绍了\n这个酒店投资的细节\n那好谢谢 Jim\n因为实物投资有一定门槛\n它不一定对所有人都合适\n所以咱们这里只是介绍一个知识\n如果有些朋友是有在这些方面\n进一步了解的兴趣呢\n是可以看一下Jim的YouTube频道\n叫做《东岳看台》\n或者是访问现在屏幕上的这个网站\nmatlinhotels.com\n进入其中的联系方式\n那么可以和Jim做更深入的沟通\nJim作为咱们这个频道的智囊\n我以后仍然会\n不时地请他出现在我们的节目当中\n和观众朋友们分享一下\n投资理财方面的专业知识\n那么好 今天这期节目就到这\n谢谢大家 咱们下回接着再聊", "language": "zh", "duration": 1561.0, "segments": [ { "id": 0, "start": 0.05, "end": 0.63, "text": "大家好", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 1, "start": 0.65, "end": 2.99, "text": "欢迎来到《文昭谈古论今》", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 2, "start": 3.01, "end": 4.23, "text": "开头先提一个问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 3, "start": 4.25, "end": 6.43, "text": "您知道现在世界上各个国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 4, "start": 6.45, "end": 7.99, "text": "一共欠了多少债吗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 5, "start": 8.12, "end": 10.74, "text": "根据国际金融协会的一份报告", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 6, "start": 10.76, "end": 12.66, "text": "截至到2026年3月底", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 7, "start": 12.68, "end": 14.22, "text": "全球的负债总额", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 8, "start": 14.24, "end": 17.58, "text": "已经达到了353万亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 9, "start": 17.69, "end": 21.03, "text": "也就是353这个数字后面跟12个0", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 10, "start": 21.18, "end": 24.0, "text": "数字已经大到了失去了意义是不是啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 11, "start": 24.02, "end": 25.92, "text": "换算一下您就有感觉了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 12, "start": 25.94, "end": 27.12, "text": "如果把这笔债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 13, "start": 27.14, "end": 29.32, "text": "平摊到全球每个人头上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 14, "start": 29.34, "end": 30.72, "text": "不管是刚出生的婴儿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 15, "start": 30.74, "end": 31.92, "text": "还是临终的老人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 16, "start": 31.94, "end": 34.32, "text": "每个人都能摊到4万多美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 17, "start": 34.65, "end": 36.79, "text": "再接下来又来了一系列问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 18, "start": 36.81, "end": 38.51, "text": "那是不是要从你我的兜里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 19, "start": 38.53, "end": 40.83, "text": "掏出4万多美元来还债呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 20, "start": 40.85, "end": 43.27, "text": "还有全球负债最多的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 21, "start": 43.29, "end": 45.07, "text": "是不是一定就会破产呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 22, "start": 45.09, "end": 46.55, "text": "又有没有国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 23, "start": 46.66, "end": 48.92, "text": "从这场游戏里赚到钱呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 24, "start": 48.94, "end": 52.44, "text": "以及万一国家破产了你我怎么办呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 25, "start": 52.46, "end": 54.68, "text": "这些问题普通人平常想不到", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 26, "start": 54.7, "end": 55.88, "text": "但是一想起来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 27, "start": 55.9, "end": 57.76, "text": "就让人后脊梁骨冒汗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 28, "start": 57.87, "end": 61.77, "text": "那今天就让我们来一一拆解这些问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 29, "start": 62.93, "end": 66.19, "text": "让我们先从日本东京发生的一起故事说起", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 30, "start": 66.21, "end": 67.75, "text": "2025年5月20日", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 31, "start": 67.77, "end": 70.23, "text": "日本财务省照例举行了一场", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 32, "start": 70.25, "end": 72.67, "text": "20年期国债的拍卖会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 33, "start": 72.69, "end": 74.87, "text": "这种拍卖会其实每个月都会有", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 34, "start": 74.89, "end": 76.39, "text": "它没什么新闻价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 35, "start": 76.41, "end": 77.91, "text": "但是这一次它成了新闻", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 36, "start": 78.16, "end": 81.94, "text": "因为这一次投标的倍数跌到了2.5倍", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 37, "start": 81.96, "end": 84.42, "text": "是2012年以来最低的一次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 38, "start": 84.44, "end": 85.9, "text": "换成白话说就是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 39, "start": 85.92, "end": 88.22, "text": "这一次日本政府想借的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 40, "start": 88.24, "end": 90.66, "text": "没那么多人抢着给他借了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 41, "start": 90.68, "end": 93.2, "text": "消息一出20年期日债的收益率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 42, "start": 93.22, "end": 96.68, "text": "立刻飙升到了2000年以来的最高水平", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 43, "start": 96.89, "end": 99.35, "text": "债券的收益率上升和价格下跌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 44, "start": 99.37, "end": 100.87, "text": "其实是同一件事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 45, "start": 100.89, "end": 102.91, "text": "连带着30年和40年期", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 46, "start": 102.93, "end": 105.23, "text": "日债的收益率也一起飙升", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 47, "start": 105.25, "end": 107.83, "text": "三天之后日本最大的寿险公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 48, "start": 107.85, "end": 109.95, "text": "日本生命保险公布了一组数字", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 49, "start": 109.97, "end": 112.0, "text": "光是他们手上持有的日本国债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 50, "start": 112.01, "end": 115.5, "text": "帐面浮亏就达到了3.6万亿日元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 51, "start": 115.52, "end": 117.54, "text": "相当于250多亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 52, "start": 117.56, "end": 119.78, "text": "几乎是上年同期的两倍", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 53, "start": 119.8, "end": 122.7, "text": "那么一场几乎没有人在意的政府拍卖会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 54, "start": 122.72, "end": 124.62, "text": "怎么会让一家寿险公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 55, "start": 124.64, "end": 128.32, "text": "一口气就凭空“亏掉”了250多亿美元呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 56, "start": 128.34, "end": 129.4, "text": "原因很简单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 57, "start": 129.42, "end": 132.28, "text": "那张你以为只是政府打出来的欠条", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 58, "start": 132.3, "end": 135.56, "text": "其实早已经躺在了千千万万人的保单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 59, "start": 135.58, "end": 137.24, "text": "银行存款和退休金里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 60, "start": 137.26, "end": 140.04, "text": "国债跌 它不只是政府一家的事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 61, "start": 140.06, "end": 142.26, "text": "而是整个链条上的所有人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 62, "start": 142.28, "end": 143.46, "text": "都跟着跌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 63, "start": 143.48, "end": 146.86, "text": "那这条链子是怎么样一环接一环扣上的呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 64, "start": 146.88, "end": 148.5, "text": "我们就先从最上游", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 65, "start": 148.52, "end": 151.74, "text": "政府怎么把钱借出来的 这事说起", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 66, "start": 151.97, "end": 154.07, "text": "说到欠债您的印象可能是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 67, "start": 154.09, "end": 156.63, "text": "全球欠债最凶的国家是美国", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 68, "start": 156.65, "end": 157.55, "text": "的确没错", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 69, "start": 157.57, "end": 160.03, "text": "2026年美国的债务总规模", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 70, "start": 160.05, "end": 162.15, "text": "已经超过了40万亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 71, "start": 162.17, "end": 164.75, "text": "比中国和日本加起来都还要多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 72, "start": 164.96, "end": 167.06, "text": "但是如果比的不是总金额", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 73, "start": 167.08, "end": 170.5, "text": "而是债务规模占这个国家GDP的比例呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 74, "start": 170.52, "end": 172.18, "text": "全球冠军就不是美国了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 75, "start": 172.2, "end": 173.62, "text": "是谁呢 是日本", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 76, "start": 173.86, "end": 175.56, "text": "日本的存量债务余额", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 77, "start": 175.58, "end": 177.8, "text": "已经是它GDP的两倍多了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 78, "start": 177.82, "end": 180.12, "text": "这也是为什么刚刚讲的那场拍卖会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 79, "start": 180.14, "end": 181.4, "text": "全世界都在看", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 80, "start": 181.52, "end": 184.14, "text": "所以欠最多的和欠债最重的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 81, "start": 184.16, "end": 186.18, "text": "其实是两个不同的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 82, "start": 186.28, "end": 189.62, "text": "全世界欠下的这353万亿美元的债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 83, "start": 189.64, "end": 192.5, "text": "其实拆分开来是由三部分组成的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 84, "start": 192.64, "end": 194.51, "text": "政府是欠债的最大头", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 85, "start": 194.52, "end": 197.14, "text": "它欠了106.7万亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 86, "start": 197.26, "end": 199.2, "text": "企业欠了100.6万亿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 87, "start": 199.22, "end": 201.6, "text": "家庭欠64.6万亿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 88, "start": 201.7, "end": 203.12, "text": "其实还有第四部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 89, "start": 203.14, "end": 205.28, "text": "就是金融机构彼此之间的负债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 90, "start": 205.3, "end": 206.4, "text": "还没有算进来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 91, "start": 206.42, "end": 208.37, "text": "那咱们今天重点说政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 92, "start": 208.38, "end": 211.0, "text": "它是怎么样欠下一屁股债的呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 93, "start": 211.41, "end": 212.71, "text": "说穿了很简单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 94, "start": 212.73, "end": 214.31, "text": "就是政府钱不够花", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 95, "start": 214.33, "end": 216.11, "text": "又不想加税惹人抱怨", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 96, "start": 216.13, "end": 219.55, "text": "于是就向公众和国际投资者发行国债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 97, "start": 219.57, "end": 221.55, "text": "这个国债是怎么卖出去的呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 98, "start": 221.57, "end": 223.39, "text": "政府会定期开拍卖会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 99, "start": 223.41, "end": 225.48, "text": "在市场上有一批被称之为", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 100, "start": 225.49, "end": 226.98, "text": "“一级交易商”的买家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 101, "start": 227.0, "end": 230.22, "text": "主要是有资格参与政府拍卖的大银行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 102, "start": 230.24, "end": 233.02, "text": "他们会第一手把国债给买下来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 103, "start": 233.51, "end": 235.21, "text": "大银行买到手的国债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 104, "start": 235.23, "end": 237.01, "text": "会在转手卖到下一层", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 105, "start": 237.03, "end": 239.01, "text": "比如像日本生命保险公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 106, "start": 239.03, "end": 240.29, "text": "这样的寿险公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 107, "start": 240.31, "end": 242.65, "text": "还有退休基金各国的央行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 108, "start": 242.67, "end": 245.69, "text": "以及我们后面要谈到的各国主权基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 109, "start": 245.71, "end": 247.37, "text": "一层一层转下去", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 110, "start": 247.39, "end": 250.04, "text": "国债的持有人就会越来越分散", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 111, "start": 250.06, "end": 251.56, "text": "所以掰开了揉碎了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 112, "start": 251.58, "end": 254.08, "text": "你看这些退休基金和保险公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 113, "start": 254.1, "end": 256.0, "text": "他们所持有的底层资产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 114, "start": 256.02, "end": 258.44, "text": "其实很大一部分都是国债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 115, "start": 258.46, "end": 259.84, "text": "那么在接下来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 116, "start": 259.96, "end": 262.66, "text": "这些机构们用来买国债的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 117, "start": 262.68, "end": 265.06, "text": "归根到底又是来自于哪里呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 118, "start": 265.97, "end": 267.83, "text": "其实就是来自于你我", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 119, "start": 267.85, "end": 270.03, "text": "是你交的保费 是你的退休金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 120, "start": 270.05, "end": 271.67, "text": "和银行里的存款", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 121, "start": 271.69, "end": 273.59, "text": "这个链条一环扣一环", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 122, "start": 273.61, "end": 275.99, "text": "没有一块钱是凭空生出来的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 123, "start": 276.01, "end": 279.11, "text": "但是到这里就出现了一个关键的岔路口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 124, "start": 279.13, "end": 280.83, "text": "就是所有国家都走这条路", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 125, "start": 281.04, "end": 282.02, "text": "政府都发债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 126, "start": 282.04, "end": 284.3, "text": "那为什么有的国家一路平稳", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 127, "start": 284.32, "end": 287.46, "text": "而另一些国家就半路爆雷了呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 128, "start": 291.74, "end": 294.48, "text": "俗话说“虱子多了不咬债多了不愁”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 129, "start": 294.5, "end": 296.04, "text": "债多了真的不愁吗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 130, "start": 296.06, "end": 297.0, "text": "当然不会嘛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 131, "start": 297.02, "end": 299.48, "text": "是债就会愁 除非不用还", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 132, "start": 299.5, "end": 301.8, "text": "可是不用还了也不叫债了 对不对", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 133, "start": 301.91, "end": 304.37, "text": "只是这个愁有人急有人不急", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 134, "start": 304.39, "end": 306.69, "text": "那就要看你欠的是“谁的货币”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 135, "start": 307.3, "end": 309.96, "text": "我们举一个负债率还不算夸张的例子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 136, "start": 309.98, "end": 310.84, "text": "阿根廷", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 137, "start": 311.11, "end": 312.86, "text": "阿根廷在2019年", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 138, "start": 312.87, "end": 316.81, "text": "它政府欠债占到GDP的比例是90%出头", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 139, "start": 316.83, "end": 319.09, "text": "比起日本来是轻松一大截", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 140, "start": 319.11, "end": 321.65, "text": "可是阿根廷却是全球主权违约", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 141, "start": 321.67, "end": 323.05, "text": "最多的国家之一", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 142, "start": 323.07, "end": 324.81, "text": "迄今外债违约九次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 143, "start": 324.83, "end": 326.13, "text": "2001年那一次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 144, "start": 326.24, "end": 328.7, "text": "一口气违约了950多亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 145, "start": 328.72, "end": 331.78, "text": "是当时主权债务违约的世界冠军", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 146, "start": 332.44, "end": 335.78, "text": "阿根廷政府债务占到GDP比例90%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 147, "start": 335.8, "end": 336.54, "text": "就垮了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 148, "start": 336.56, "end": 338.54, "text": "可是日本是两倍多都还没事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 149, "start": 338.56, "end": 340.82, "text": "那差距怎么就这么悬殊呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 150, "start": 341.61, "end": 343.95, "text": "差距就在于你欠的是“谁的货币”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 151, "start": 343.97, "end": 347.11, "text": "阿根廷常年出口农产品和原材料", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 152, "start": 347.13, "end": 348.39, "text": "进口制成品", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 153, "start": 348.41, "end": 350.55, "text": "它的外贸是常年逆差的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 154, "start": 350.57, "end": 352.23, "text": "就只好跑到国际市场上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 155, "start": 352.25, "end": 354.47, "text": "不断去借美元计价的外债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 156, "start": 354.57, "end": 356.87, "text": "从2016年到2018年两年间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 157, "start": 356.89, "end": 360.07, "text": "阿根廷的外债急剧膨胀了70%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 158, "start": 360.09, "end": 362.31, "text": "占到了GDP的60%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 159, "start": 362.46, "end": 364.68, "text": "那么当阿根廷比索贬值的时候", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 160, "start": 364.7, "end": 367.44, "text": "你该还的美元是一分钱不少啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 161, "start": 367.46, "end": 370.08, "text": "要换算成比索 于是瞬间膨胀", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 162, "start": 370.1, "end": 372.6, "text": "你手里的本币再多没用 人家不认啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 163, "start": 372.82, "end": 375.16, "text": "你借的是美元还的也得是美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 164, "start": 375.18, "end": 376.97, "text": "所以照样是还不出来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 165, "start": 376.98, "end": 378.24, "text": "Uh-oh", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 166, "start": 378.77, "end": 380.47, "text": "咱们老说阿根廷哭泣", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 167, "start": 380.49, "end": 382.39, "text": "其实阿根廷还不是最惨的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 168, "start": 382.41, "end": 385.15, "text": "至少在国际市场上它还借得着钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 169, "start": 385.17, "end": 387.71, "text": "真正的地狱模式是委内瑞拉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 170, "start": 388.17, "end": 391.31, "text": "委内瑞拉是世界上石油储量最丰富的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 171, "start": 391.33, "end": 394.07, "text": "也曾经躺在石油上富得流油", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 172, "start": 394.09, "end": 396.51, "text": "但是2014年起风云突变", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 173, "start": 396.53, "end": 397.83, "text": "国际油价暴跌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 174, "start": 397.85, "end": 398.71, "text": "那政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 175, "start": 398.73, "end": 401.63, "text": "已经有大量的福利开支填补不上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 176, "start": 401.65, "end": 404.78, "text": "就开始疯狂印钞 填补财政的窟窿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 177, "start": 404.8, "end": 407.66, "text": "2018年委内瑞拉全国的通货膨胀率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 178, "start": 407.68, "end": 410.66, "text": "达到了惊人的170万%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 179, "start": 410.92, "end": 412.82, "text": "你听听是170万%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 180, "start": 412.84, "end": 414.98, "text": "你今天存在银行里的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 181, "start": 415.0, "end": 417.26, "text": "转眼间就只值一个零头了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 182, "start": 417.28, "end": 419.8, "text": "阿根廷和委内瑞拉 他们的共同点是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 183, "start": 419.82, "end": 422.72, "text": "当政府发生财政危机想印钱的时候", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 184, "start": 422.74, "end": 426.04, "text": "手里没有一台被世界认可的印钞机", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 185, "start": 426.06, "end": 427.05, "text": "委内瑞拉也是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 186, "start": 427.18, "end": 428.92, "text": "它印再多的玻利瓦尔", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 187, "start": 428.94, "end": 430.44, "text": "相对于美元债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 188, "start": 430.46, "end": 432.08, "text": "那是一点都没有减少啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 189, "start": 432.1, "end": 434.22, "text": "而日本政府欠的是什么债呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 190, "start": 434.24, "end": 436.42, "text": "是日元债 是自己的本币", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 191, "start": 436.44, "end": 439.06, "text": "缺钱的时候央行可以直接印", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 192, "start": 439.08, "end": 440.18, "text": "这就是差距", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 193, "start": 440.2, "end": 443.22, "text": "老话说：有粮在手 心中不慌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 194, "start": 443.24, "end": 445.07, "text": "换成现在金融术语就是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 195, "start": 445.08, "end": 446.98, "text": "“有机在手 心中不慌”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 196, "start": 447.0, "end": 448.54, "text": "这个“机”就是印钞机", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 197, "start": 448.56, "end": 450.82, "text": "还真的是会下金蛋的母鸡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 198, "start": 450.84, "end": 452.74, "text": "这也是为什么开头说的那场", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 199, "start": 452.76, "end": 454.14, "text": "日本国债拍卖会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 200, "start": 454.16, "end": 455.9, "text": "它所造成的只是“浮亏”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 201, "start": 455.92, "end": 457.1, "text": "不是真的“违约”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 202, "start": 457.12, "end": 459.02, "text": "在美国这边那就更是这样了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 203, "start": 459.04, "end": 460.86, "text": "更加是“有机在手”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 204, "start": 461.02, "end": 464.36, "text": "美国政府欠下的那40好几万亿美元的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 205, "start": 464.38, "end": 465.92, "text": "天量债务 也是美元债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 206, "start": 465.94, "end": 467.2, "text": "也是自己的钱嘛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 207, "start": 467.22, "end": 469.08, "text": "而且呢美国经济更加是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 208, "start": 469.1, "end": 471.08, "text": "底盘扎实 韧性强大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 209, "start": 471.1, "end": 472.84, "text": "所以非但美国没有崩", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 210, "start": 472.86, "end": 475.96, "text": "反而是世界公认的最安全的债务国", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 211, "start": 479.31, "end": 480.53, "text": "这里还有一个区别", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 212, "start": 480.55, "end": 482.81, "text": "不算小小的区别也得强调一下", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 213, "start": 482.83, "end": 484.65, "text": "就是日本发行的国债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 214, "start": 484.67, "end": 487.13, "text": "90%是日本国民自己在买", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 215, "start": 487.15, "end": 488.93, "text": "而美国欠的债呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 216, "start": 489.04, "end": 492.38, "text": "有相当一部分是外国政府和国际买家在买", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 217, "start": 492.4, "end": 494.78, "text": "毕竟美元是国际储备货币嘛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 218, "start": 494.8, "end": 497.5, "text": "中国台湾和日本都是美债的大买家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 219, "start": 497.52, "end": 499.26, "text": "所以同样是自己印钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 220, "start": 499.28, "end": 501.78, "text": "所造成的这个通货膨胀的后果呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 221, "start": 501.8, "end": 503.62, "text": "是日本人自己在扛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 222, "start": 503.64, "end": 505.74, "text": "美国则是把相当一部分风险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 223, "start": 505.76, "end": 507.02, "text": "分散给了全世界", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 224, "start": 507.04, "end": 508.54, "text": "美国经济体量又大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 225, "start": 508.72, "end": 510.9, "text": "GDP是日本的7.3倍", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 226, "start": 510.92, "end": 513.82, "text": "所以美国又远比日本要安全", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 227, "start": 514.0, "end": 516.06, "text": "这里还有一个误解要澄清", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 228, "start": 516.2, "end": 518.14, "text": "就是“能通过印钞来还债”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 229, "start": 518.16, "end": 519.22, "text": "听起来很美好", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 230, "start": 519.24, "end": 520.9, "text": "就像天上掉馅饼", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 231, "start": 520.92, "end": 522.98, "text": "可是真相真的是这样吗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 232, "start": 523.0, "end": 523.94, "text": "当然不是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 233, "start": 524.09, "end": 527.19, "text": "因为债务而拉动的这部分新增货币", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 234, "start": 527.21, "end": 529.11, "text": "它摊薄了购买力 是什么呀", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 235, "start": 529.13, "end": 530.63, "text": "那就是通货膨胀嘛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 236, "start": 530.65, "end": 532.52, "text": "日本并不是没有付出代价", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 237, "start": 532.53, "end": 534.03, "text": "它那个超低利率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 238, "start": 534.05, "end": 536.55, "text": "再加上薪资停滞延续了几十年", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 239, "start": 536.57, "end": 539.15, "text": "只不过这个代价是在几十年时间里面", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 240, "start": 539.24, "end": 541.42, "text": "分摊到了全体国民头上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 241, "start": 541.44, "end": 542.86, "text": "后果安静得多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 242, "start": 542.88, "end": 544.78, "text": "就不像委内瑞拉这么夯", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 243, "start": 544.8, "end": 547.54, "text": "通过170万%的通货膨胀", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 244, "start": 547.56, "end": 548.7, "text": "一次性引爆", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 245, "start": 548.72, "end": 551.86, "text": "2026年100日元在日本国内的购买力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 246, "start": 551.88, "end": 554.02, "text": "比起10年以前2016年", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 247, "start": 554.1, "end": 557.6, "text": "其实只相当于10年以前的86到87日元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 248, "start": 557.62, "end": 561.0, "text": "老百姓是在不知不觉为政府债务买了单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 249, "start": 562.79, "end": 563.61, "text": "这也解释了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 250, "start": 563.63, "end": 566.13, "text": "为什么世界上几乎每个国家的政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 251, "start": 566.15, "end": 568.57, "text": "都不愿意把债务真的降下来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 252, "start": 568.7, "end": 570.92, "text": "因为比起加税和削减福利", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 253, "start": 570.94, "end": 573.32, "text": "走通货膨胀这条路要安静得多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 254, "start": 573.34, "end": 576.2, "text": "比较不容易引起老百姓的直接反弹", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 255, "start": 576.22, "end": 579.08, "text": "但是很多经济学家已经挑明了真相", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 256, "start": 579.18, "end": 582.44, "text": "通货膨胀其实就相当于变相加税", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 257, "start": 582.46, "end": 584.72, "text": "只是把责任给掩盖了起来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 258, "start": 590.53, "end": 592.35, "text": "整个系统其实是一套", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 259, "start": 592.37, "end": 594.47, "text": "谁都不愿意先认输的赌局", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 260, "start": 594.49, "end": 597.23, "text": "银行手里是攥着国债和退休基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 261, "start": 597.25, "end": 599.71, "text": "保险公司手里又攥着银行的股票", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 262, "start": 599.73, "end": 602.95, "text": "你的存款和保单呢又流入了整个链条", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 263, "start": 602.97, "end": 605.47, "text": "就像开头讲的日本生命保险公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 264, "start": 605.6, "end": 609.3, "text": "每一个人同时既负债又是别人的债主", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 265, "start": 609.39, "end": 611.33, "text": "整个链条一环扣一环", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 266, "start": 611.47, "end": 613.77, "text": "不知道大家有没有玩过这样一种游戏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 267, "start": 614.07, "end": 615.09, "text": "就是两个人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 268, "start": 615.42, "end": 617.76, "text": "脸对脸 瞪着眼睛彼此看", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 269, "start": 617.78, "end": 619.6, "text": "就看谁先撑不住眨眼", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 270, "start": 619.62, "end": 621.08, "text": "或者先把视线移开", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 271, "start": 621.1, "end": 622.48, "text": "那这个人就输了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 272, "start": 622.5, "end": 624.04, "text": "那放到债务的世界里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 273, "start": 624.06, "end": 625.36, "text": "这句话的意思就是说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 274, "start": 625.38, "end": 627.48, "text": "当所有的人 包括各国政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 275, "start": 627.5, "end": 630.08, "text": "各国央行商业银行还有投资机构", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 276, "start": 630.1, "end": 632.15, "text": "他们彼此之间既是债务人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 277, "start": 632.17, "end": 633.91, "text": "又是债主关系的时候呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 278, "start": 633.93, "end": 635.51, "text": "其实就进入了一种", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 279, "start": 635.53, "end": 637.79, "text": "谁也不敢轻举妄动的僵局", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 280, "start": 638.09, "end": 640.03, "text": "有点像“恐怖的平衡”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 281, "start": 640.05, "end": 642.43, "text": "举例说如果中国政府要清仓", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 282, "start": 642.45, "end": 643.99, "text": "要大举抛售美债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 283, "start": 644.01, "end": 645.89, "text": "那么美债的价格会下跌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 284, "start": 645.91, "end": 647.29, "text": "收益率会上扬", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 285, "start": 647.31, "end": 649.85, "text": "美国政府未来的借债成本会上升", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 286, "start": 649.87, "end": 652.69, "text": "美国一定会痛 那是没跑的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 287, "start": 652.71, "end": 655.69, "text": "但是中国政府手上剩下的美债资产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 288, "start": 655.71, "end": 656.97, "text": "也会跟着贬值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 289, "start": 656.99, "end": 659.21, "text": "外汇储备会价值缩水", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 290, "start": 659.23, "end": 661.99, "text": "那么人民币汇率就有下跌的压力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 291, "start": 663.25, "end": 664.79, "text": "这是一种相互的挟持", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 292, "start": 664.81, "end": 667.51, "text": "我攥着你的命根子 你捏着我的小辫子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 293, "start": 667.53, "end": 669.47, "text": "谁先采取激进的举动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 294, "start": 669.49, "end": 672.15, "text": "不管是违约抛售还是紧急收缩", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 295, "start": 672.17, "end": 675.31, "text": "他要承受的反噬往往比对手还要大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 296, "start": 675.33, "end": 676.91, "text": "政府如果真的违约的话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 297, "start": 676.93, "end": 679.18, "text": "那会让整个链条上的银行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 298, "start": 679.2, "end": 681.5, "text": "还有养老基金全部都垮掉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 299, "start": 681.52, "end": 683.98, "text": "如果是老百姓先恐慌了hold不住了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 300, "start": 684.0, "end": 686.1, "text": "纷纷把钱从银行里取出来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 301, "start": 686.12, "end": 687.14, "text": "变现成东西", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 302, "start": 687.16, "end": 689.02, "text": "那么银行体系也会垮", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 303, "start": 689.04, "end": 692.62, "text": "银行一垮整个经济体系都会陷入萧条", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 304, "start": 692.64, "end": 695.08, "text": "所以所有人就只好默默地承受", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 305, "start": 695.1, "end": 697.88, "text": "被通货膨胀剥削这个现实", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 306, "start": 697.9, "end": 700.68, "text": "因此金融的真相一层层深扒下去", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 307, "start": 700.7, "end": 703.96, "text": "你会发现这真是一个邪性的世界呀", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 308, "start": 704.37, "end": 707.55, "text": "除了上面讲的政府处理债务的两种模式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 309, "start": 707.57, "end": 710.51, "text": "一种是靠通胀慢慢“蚕食”掉债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 310, "start": 710.53, "end": 713.03, "text": "另一种呢是政府直接违约摆烂", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 311, "start": 713.05, "end": 715.71, "text": "除此之外还有第三种欠钱的方式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 312, "start": 715.84, "end": 718.74, "text": "就是欠帐欠的让人算不清楚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 313, "start": 718.76, "end": 720.18, "text": "债主都被绕迷糊了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 314, "start": 720.2, "end": 723.06, "text": "那当然欠钱的人说多少就是多少了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 315, "start": 723.4, "end": 726.22, "text": "那这第三种模式可能有朋友想到了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 316, "start": 726.24, "end": 727.74, "text": "就是中国模式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 317, "start": 729.21, "end": 731.67, "text": "中国政府的债务总量居世界第二", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 318, "start": 731.69, "end": 734.23, "text": "但是官方公布的那个负债率数字", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 319, "start": 734.25, "end": 735.19, "text": "不算夸张", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 320, "start": 735.21, "end": 737.39, "text": "但是请注意这只是官方公布的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 321, "start": 737.41, "end": 740.39, "text": "地方政府才是真正欠债的大头", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 322, "start": 740.41, "end": 744.37, "text": "市级县级政府所欠的那个城投债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 323, "start": 744.39, "end": 746.25, "text": "所谓地方融资平台的债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 324, "start": 746.27, "end": 748.17, "text": "那是不进官方报表的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 325, "start": 748.32, "end": 751.22, "text": "国际货币基金组织IMF多次提醒", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 326, "start": 751.37, "end": 753.31, "text": "中国的这块“隐形政府债务”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 327, "start": 753.33, "end": 755.99, "text": "实际规模远超官方公布的数字", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 328, "start": 756.01, "end": 758.43, "text": "可能达到了百万亿元之巨", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 329, "start": 758.45, "end": 760.07, "text": "那么这条隐形线索呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 330, "start": 760.09, "end": 762.15, "text": "我们之前多期节目分析过", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 331, "start": 762.17, "end": 763.43, "text": "这里就不再重复了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 332, "start": 763.59, "end": 766.25, "text": "好前面说了全世界哪些国家在欠债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 333, "start": 766.27, "end": 767.45, "text": "谁欠的比较重", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 334, "start": 767.47, "end": 770.17, "text": "那么政府里面有没有赚钱的呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 335, "start": 770.19, "end": 770.89, "text": "当然是有的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 336, "start": 770.91, "end": 773.41, "text": "他们赚钱的途径是先存钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 337, "start": 773.43, "end": 775.89, "text": "然后所有这些钱都流进了一个东西", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 338, "start": 775.91, "end": 777.73, "text": "叫做“主权财富基金”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 339, "start": 777.84, "end": 779.94, "text": "再通过这个基金来赚钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 340, "start": 784.86, "end": 786.68, "text": "简单的说主权财富基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 341, "start": 786.7, "end": 788.08, "text": "就是一个国家的政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 342, "start": 788.1, "end": 789.44, "text": "拿自己赚到的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 343, "start": 789.46, "end": 791.72, "text": "开设的一个巨大的投资帐户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 344, "start": 791.74, "end": 794.44, "text": "是在为全体国民的未来理财", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 345, "start": 794.46, "end": 795.92, "text": "但是这里有个门槛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 346, "start": 795.94, "end": 798.33, "text": "就是能够玩这种游戏的政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 347, "start": 798.34, "end": 801.63, "text": "它必须手上得有自己能够支配的“闲钱”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 348, "start": 801.65, "end": 804.63, "text": "它可以是来自于政府历年的财政盈余", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 349, "start": 804.65, "end": 806.87, "text": "也可以是来自于贸易顺差", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 350, "start": 806.89, "end": 808.83, "text": "也可以是外汇存底当中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 351, "start": 808.85, "end": 811.31, "text": "超出了日常维持汇率稳定", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 352, "start": 811.33, "end": 813.95, "text": "还有经常性贸易结算的那部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 353, "start": 813.97, "end": 815.41, "text": "比较空闲的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 354, "start": 815.43, "end": 817.33, "text": "但是都有一个共同的性质", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 355, "start": 817.35, "end": 819.73, "text": "就是他们必须是“赚来的钱”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 356, "start": 819.75, "end": 821.45, "text": "不能是借来的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 357, "start": 823.05, "end": 825.83, "text": "在这些赚钱的政府里最有代表性的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 358, "start": 825.85, "end": 828.55, "text": "就是人口六百万的小国新加坡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 359, "start": 828.57, "end": 831.03, "text": "新加坡是把它历年攒下来的家底", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 360, "start": 831.05, "end": 832.63, "text": "分成了三个帐户管理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 361, "start": 832.65, "end": 834.15, "text": "一个是负责保命的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 362, "start": 834.25, "end": 835.95, "text": "一个是负责稳健增长的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 363, "start": 835.97, "end": 838.15, "text": "还有一个是负责赌一把的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 364, "start": 838.17, "end": 839.75, "text": "咱们一个一个来拆解啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 365, "start": 840.05, "end": 841.31, "text": "负责保命的这个", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 366, "start": 841.33, "end": 843.35, "text": "叫做新加坡金融管理局", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 367, "start": 843.37, "end": 844.64, "text": "缩写是MAS", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 368, "start": 844.65, "end": 847.47, "text": "它所管理的是新加坡的外汇存底", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 369, "start": 847.49, "end": 848.75, "text": "目标也只有一个", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 370, "start": 848.77, "end": 851.75, "text": "就是守住新加坡元的汇率 不要乱动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 371, "start": 851.77, "end": 854.08, "text": "所以它的投资风格极为保守", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 372, "start": 854.09, "end": 857.02, "text": "它手上的钱 必须流动性很高", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 373, "start": 857.04, "end": 858.54, "text": "随时可以拿出来变现", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 374, "start": 858.56, "end": 860.26, "text": "能够干预外汇市场的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 375, "start": 860.28, "end": 862.9, "text": "所以它所投资的九成都是债券", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 376, "start": 862.92, "end": 865.14, "text": "宁可少赚 也要保住不出事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 377, "start": 865.16, "end": 867.34, "text": "负责稳健增长的这个帐号", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 378, "start": 867.36, "end": 869.94, "text": "叫做新加坡政府投资公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 379, "start": 870.06, "end": 871.2, "text": "缩写是GIC", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 380, "start": 871.22, "end": 874.0, "text": "它已经是全球第七大主权基金了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 381, "start": 874.02, "end": 876.36, "text": "就光这一家公司所管理的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 382, "start": 876.38, "end": 880.2, "text": "就已经达到了新加坡一年GDP的一倍多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 383, "start": 880.37, "end": 884.03, "text": "新加坡2025年的GDP是5480亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 384, "start": 884.05, "end": 887.76, "text": "而GIC就管理着多达9300多亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 385, "start": 887.77, "end": 891.1, "text": "它的资产配置也非常乏味教科书式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 386, "start": 891.12, "end": 893.98, "text": "有股票债券房地产私募股权", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 387, "start": 894.0, "end": 895.34, "text": "差不多平均分配", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 388, "start": 895.36, "end": 899.54, "text": "过去20年它的平均年回报率是3.9%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 389, "start": 899.56, "end": 901.78, "text": "不惊艳 但是也是求的一个稳", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 390, "start": 901.88, "end": 904.14, "text": "而负责玩一把的这个帐号呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 391, "start": 904.16, "end": 905.34, "text": "就叫淡马锡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 392, "start": 905.36, "end": 907.83, "text": "淡马锡的脾气和前两家完全不一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 393, "start": 907.84, "end": 910.42, "text": "它从来不碰债券这种很保守的东西", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 394, "start": 910.44, "end": 913.3, "text": "而是专攻股权私募还有创新公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 395, "start": 913.32, "end": 914.87, "text": "什么心跳玩什么", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 396, "start": 914.88, "end": 918.3, "text": "它所管理的资金大约是3080亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 397, "start": 918.32, "end": 920.98, "text": "风格野 也承担更大的风险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 398, "start": 921.0, "end": 922.14, "text": "博取更高的收益", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 399, "start": 922.16, "end": 924.94, "text": "那是三个帐户三种性格凑在一起", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 400, "start": 924.96, "end": 927.82, "text": "才是新加坡政府所管理的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 401, "start": 928.25, "end": 930.23, "text": "但新加坡真正厉害之处", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 402, "start": 930.25, "end": 932.83, "text": "还不在于这三支基金是怎么样分工", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 403, "start": 932.85, "end": 933.99, "text": "怎么样赚钱的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 404, "start": 934.01, "end": 936.51, "text": "真正厉害之处是在于这三个帐户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 405, "start": 936.53, "end": 938.91, "text": "是怎么样和政府财政挂钩的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 406, "start": 938.93, "end": 940.71, "text": "是怎么样反哺财政的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 407, "start": 940.9, "end": 943.56, "text": "新加坡有一个机制 缩写叫NIRC", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 408, "start": 943.58, "end": 945.2, "text": "就是这三支基金赚的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 409, "start": 945.22, "end": 947.92, "text": "会有一半直接划拨给政府财政", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 410, "start": 947.94, "end": 949.68, "text": "变成当年的财政收入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 411, "start": 949.7, "end": 952.2, "text": "另外一半是留下来继续滚雪球", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 412, "start": 952.89, "end": 956.07, "text": "那在2024年光三支基金划拨给政府的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 413, "start": 956.09, "end": 959.51, "text": "这部分赚到的钱就有235亿新元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 414, "start": 959.65, "end": 962.11, "text": "那么大家猜一猜这笔钱占到了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 415, "start": 962.13, "end": 964.71, "text": "当年政府财政收入的多少呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 416, "start": 964.73, "end": 965.95, "text": "多达五分之一", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 417, "start": 965.97, "end": 968.07, "text": "比企业税和个人所得税", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 418, "start": 968.09, "end": 969.59, "text": "所占的比重还要大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 419, "start": 969.61, "end": 971.47, "text": "所以新加坡政府的钱包", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 420, "start": 971.49, "end": 973.11, "text": "有很大一块其实是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 421, "start": 973.13, "end": 975.13, "text": "这些基金给它赚出来的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 422, "start": 975.15, "end": 976.97, "text": "所以新加坡的税收水平", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 423, "start": 976.99, "end": 978.49, "text": "才能保持比较低嘛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 424, "start": 978.51, "end": 980.93, "text": "老百姓才能够轻徭薄赋", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 425, "start": 980.95, "end": 982.25, "text": "过得比较滋润", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 426, "start": 983.91, "end": 985.17, "text": "听到这您可能会想", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 427, "start": 985.19, "end": 987.57, "text": "这么好的模式 别的国家不能学吗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 428, "start": 987.83, "end": 990.7, "text": "答案是大部分国家连学的资格都没有", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 429, "start": 990.71, "end": 991.97, "text": "它有两条门槛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 430, "start": 991.99, "end": 994.49, "text": "第一是你政府手上得有“闲钱”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 431, "start": 994.61, "end": 997.19, "text": "第二呢就是管理得足够透明", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 432, "start": 997.44, "end": 1000.02, "text": "毕竟你管理的是全体国民的财富嘛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 433, "start": 1000.12, "end": 1002.74, "text": "世界上会赚钱的国家不止新加坡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 434, "start": 1002.76, "end": 1004.62, "text": "中东产油国也很能赚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 435, "start": 1004.76, "end": 1007.14, "text": "当今世界上最大的主权基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 436, "start": 1007.16, "end": 1008.26, "text": "当属挪威", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 437, "start": 1008.75, "end": 1010.7, "text": "挪威主权基金的全称叫做", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 438, "start": 1010.71, "end": 1012.93, "text": "“挪威政府全球养老基金”", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 439, "start": 1012.95, "end": 1014.62, "text": "截止到2026年8月", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 440, "start": 1014.63, "end": 1016.25, "text": "它所管理的资金规模", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 441, "start": 1016.27, "end": 1019.05, "text": "达到了2.35万亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 442, "start": 1019.24, "end": 1020.46, "text": "它不只是规模大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 443, "start": 1020.48, "end": 1021.98, "text": "而且它管理的透明度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 444, "start": 1022.0, "end": 1024.66, "text": "在全球主权基金里面也是数一数二的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 445, "start": 1024.68, "end": 1028.18, "text": "它的官网的更新频率达到了一秒13次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 446, "start": 1028.2, "end": 1029.7, "text": "任何人都可以查到", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 447, "start": 1029.72, "end": 1031.86, "text": "基金到底买了哪一支股票", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 448, "start": 1032.6, "end": 1034.7, "text": "现在全球欠债最多的政府", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 449, "start": 1034.72, "end": 1037.26, "text": "美国政府也想加入这场游戏了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 450, "start": 1037.28, "end": 1040.26, "text": "2025年2月 川普总统签署了行政令", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 451, "start": 1040.28, "end": 1043.38, "text": "要求美国政府也成立自己的主权基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 452, "start": 1043.4, "end": 1045.46, "text": "要对标挪威和新加坡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 453, "start": 1045.48, "end": 1046.54, "text": "但问题也来了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 454, "start": 1046.56, "end": 1048.61, "text": "人家的政府手上是有盈余的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 455, "start": 1048.63, "end": 1050.69, "text": "是有可以支配的活钱的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 456, "start": 1050.71, "end": 1052.01, "text": "投入主权基金的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 457, "start": 1052.03, "end": 1053.81, "text": "要不然是靠卖石油赚来的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 458, "start": 1053.83, "end": 1056.73, "text": "要不然是靠历年的贸易顺差存下来的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 459, "start": 1056.75, "end": 1058.45, "text": "而美国政府是啥状况", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 460, "start": 1058.75, "end": 1060.41, "text": "是财政赤字贸易赤字", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 461, "start": 1060.43, "end": 1062.49, "text": "两头空空是没钱的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 462, "start": 1062.62, "end": 1064.48, "text": "你拿什么投入这个“主权基金”呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 463, "start": 1064.5, "end": 1066.44, "text": "那肯定是不能够再发债的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 464, "start": 1066.46, "end": 1067.92, "text": "所以到现在为止", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 465, "start": 1067.94, "end": 1070.09, "text": "美国政府这个主权基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 466, "start": 1070.1, "end": 1072.2, "text": "钱从何来问题仍然无解", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 467, "start": 1072.38, "end": 1073.6, "text": "但是也许啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 468, "start": 1073.62, "end": 1075.76, "text": "靠川普那个匪夷所思的脑子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 469, "start": 1075.78, "end": 1078.7, "text": "能够琢磨出别人想像不到的财路吧", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 470, "start": 1079.44, "end": 1080.34, "text": "那中国呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 471, "start": 1080.36, "end": 1083.22, "text": "中国有历年外贸顺差所积存下来的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 472, "start": 1083.24, "end": 1084.54, "text": "巨额外汇存底", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 473, "start": 1084.56, "end": 1085.98, "text": "也算是能攒钱的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 474, "start": 1086.0, "end": 1087.78, "text": "但是透明度就说不上了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 475, "start": 1087.96, "end": 1089.7, "text": "你可能会觉得有点意外", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 476, "start": 1089.72, "end": 1091.7, "text": "一个连自己政府负债率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 477, "start": 1091.72, "end": 1093.42, "text": "都没有办法透明的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 478, "start": 1093.44, "end": 1096.66, "text": "居然也是培养出了两支主权基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 479, "start": 1096.68, "end": 1100.34, "text": "分别是中投和外管局旗下的投资公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 480, "start": 1100.36, "end": 1103.42, "text": "加起来所管理的资产规模也非常的巨大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 481, "start": 1103.44, "end": 1105.18, "text": "达到了2万亿美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 482, "start": 1105.2, "end": 1107.14, "text": "但是和美国政府同样的问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 483, "start": 1107.16, "end": 1109.02, "text": "中国政府也是欠了一屁股债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 484, "start": 1109.24, "end": 1111.06, "text": "特别是地方政府债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 485, "start": 1111.08, "end": 1112.42, "text": "怎么会还有钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 486, "start": 1112.44, "end": 1114.58, "text": "拿到海外去搞主权基金呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 487, "start": 1114.71, "end": 1116.61, "text": "因为这是两本不同的帐", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 488, "start": 1116.63, "end": 1118.33, "text": "中国政府欠的钱是什么钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 489, "start": 1118.35, "end": 1119.73, "text": "是人民币债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 490, "start": 1119.75, "end": 1122.13, "text": "主要的债主是国内银行和老百姓", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 491, "start": 1122.15, "end": 1124.01, "text": "是左口袋换右口袋", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 492, "start": 1124.11, "end": 1125.41, "text": "关键是这些债主吧", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 493, "start": 1125.43, "end": 1126.85, "text": "政治上非常弱势", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 494, "start": 1126.87, "end": 1128.49, "text": "就横眉冷眼不还你债了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 495, "start": 1128.51, "end": 1130.73, "text": "你能怎么样啊 老百姓也没辙", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 496, "start": 1130.75, "end": 1133.33, "text": "然而进入主权基金的钱是美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 497, "start": 1133.35, "end": 1134.93, "text": "它和国内的人民币债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 498, "start": 1134.95, "end": 1137.21, "text": "压根就不是一个钱包", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 499, "start": 1137.23, "end": 1139.33, "text": "中国靠着多年的外贸顺差", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 500, "start": 1139.35, "end": 1141.01, "text": "所存下来的美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 501, "start": 1141.03, "end": 1143.13, "text": "主要的一部分是去了央行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 502, "start": 1143.15, "end": 1144.37, "text": "变成了外汇存底", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 503, "start": 1144.39, "end": 1145.45, "text": "另外一部分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 504, "start": 1145.47, "end": 1148.05, "text": "则是去了中投和外管局旗下的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 505, "start": 1148.07, "end": 1149.33, "text": "这些主权基金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 506, "start": 1149.35, "end": 1151.61, "text": "只不过去到主权基金的钱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 507, "start": 1151.63, "end": 1153.01, "text": "投资了哪些项目", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 508, "start": 1153.03, "end": 1154.91, "text": "到底是赚了还是亏了呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 509, "start": 1154.93, "end": 1156.95, "text": "这个资料外界就拿不到了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 510, "start": 1158.56, "end": 1161.42, "text": "同样是靠国家攒下来的钱去投资", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 511, "start": 1161.44, "end": 1164.3, "text": "有的国家查得到 有的国家查不到", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 512, "start": 1164.32, "end": 1167.1, "text": "而这就是我们接下来要强调的一个风险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 513, "start": 1167.12, "end": 1168.34, "text": "信息差", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 514, "start": 1169.39, "end": 1171.01, "text": "在查得到帐的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 515, "start": 1171.03, "end": 1172.45, "text": "政府是增加了债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 516, "start": 1172.47, "end": 1174.89, "text": "那代价就是在相当长时间内", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 517, "start": 1174.91, "end": 1177.45, "text": "全民通过通货膨胀去买单", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 518, "start": 1177.47, "end": 1178.98, "text": "你说公平不公平呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 519, "start": 1178.99, "end": 1180.13, "text": "它肯定不公平", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 520, "start": 1180.15, "end": 1182.29, "text": "但是它是慢性的 不致命", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 521, "start": 1182.31, "end": 1184.45, "text": "而且呢有一个好处就是信息透明", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 522, "start": 1184.94, "end": 1186.76, "text": "你只要足够肯动脑子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 523, "start": 1186.98, "end": 1188.52, "text": "也关注《文昭谈古论今》", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 524, "start": 1188.54, "end": 1190.24, "text": "搞清楚事情的来龙去脉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 525, "start": 1190.26, "end": 1191.4, "text": "觉察到了问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 526, "start": 1191.42, "end": 1193.92, "text": "你就能够琢磨出对应之策", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 527, "start": 1194.17, "end": 1196.07, "text": "可是在帐本藏起来的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 528, "start": 1196.09, "end": 1198.07, "text": "这些钱去了哪你都不知道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 529, "start": 1198.09, "end": 1199.91, "text": "是赚是赔 你也不知道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 530, "start": 1199.93, "end": 1202.43, "text": "在这种情况下一旦出了问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 531, "start": 1202.45, "end": 1203.47, "text": "就非常突发", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 532, "start": 1203.49, "end": 1205.59, "text": "你也无从准备起", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 533, "start": 1205.61, "end": 1207.55, "text": "所以在帐本藏起来的国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 534, "start": 1207.57, "end": 1209.15, "text": "它所造成的信息差", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 535, "start": 1209.32, "end": 1211.38, "text": "就等于是斩杀线", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 536, "start": 1216.22, "end": 1217.48, "text": "在当今这个世界", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 537, "start": 1217.5, "end": 1219.48, "text": "只要是有积蓄和投资的人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 538, "start": 1219.5, "end": 1220.56, "text": "可以说人人都是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 539, "start": 1220.58, "end": 1222.8, "text": "被动地卷入了这场金融游戏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 540, "start": 1222.82, "end": 1223.84, "text": "其实我也是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 541, "start": 1223.86, "end": 1226.56, "text": "那么普通人应该如何自处呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 542, "start": 1231.34, "end": 1232.6, "text": "今天节目的末尾", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 543, "start": 1232.62, "end": 1234.24, "text": "向大家介绍一位朋友", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 544, "start": 1234.59, "end": 1236.89, "text": "也是咱们这个频道的金融智囊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 545, "start": 1236.91, "end": 1238.57, "text": "大家看到的很多观点呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 546, "start": 1238.59, "end": 1240.61, "text": "其实是我向他请教以后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 547, "start": 1240.63, "end": 1243.05, "text": "我自己理解 再转述给大家的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 548, "start": 1243.07, "end": 1244.49, "text": "就是 Jim 张", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 549, "start": 1244.51, "end": 1245.69, "text": "Jim 你好", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 550, "start": 1246.69, "end": 1247.71, "text": "文昭老师 你好", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 551, "start": 1247.97, "end": 1248.83, "text": "这里介绍一下", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 552, "start": 1248.85, "end": 1251.15, "text": "Jim之前是加拿大最大的银行", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 553, "start": 1251.17, "end": 1254.11, "text": "皇家银行的私人银行经理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 554, "start": 1254.13, "end": 1256.99, "text": "也就是管理高净值客户的投资经理人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 555, "start": 1257.01, "end": 1259.23, "text": "当然我并不算什么高净值客户", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 556, "start": 1259.25, "end": 1261.19, "text": "但是好在通过这个自媒体", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 557, "start": 1261.21, "end": 1262.59, "text": "能够结识很多朋友", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 558, "start": 1262.61, "end": 1264.86, "text": "现在Jim是在美国", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 559, "start": 1264.97, "end": 1267.83, "text": "做酒店的投资收购和管理", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 560, "start": 1268.13, "end": 1269.51, "text": "他旗下的酒店集团", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 561, "start": 1269.53, "end": 1271.03, "text": "叫做Matlin酒店集团", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 562, "start": 1271.05, "end": 1272.64, "text": "一共管理着三家酒店", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 563, "start": 1272.89, "end": 1274.07, "text": "一亿多美元的资产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 564, "start": 1274.09, "end": 1276.63, "text": "那Jim就是今天我们节目的嘉宾", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 565, "start": 1276.65, "end": 1278.99, "text": "我想请他谈一谈专业的看法", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 566, "start": 1279.27, "end": 1281.21, "text": "Jim 就是现在世界各国", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 567, "start": 1281.23, "end": 1282.73, "text": "其实都是通过", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 568, "start": 1282.75, "end": 1285.57, "text": "悄悄的通胀的方式来稀释债务", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 569, "start": 1285.59, "end": 1286.13, "text": "说白了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 570, "start": 1286.15, "end": 1289.29, "text": "就是把还债的责任摊在每一个国民头上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 571, "start": 1289.31, "end": 1291.53, "text": "那么普通人面对这种局势", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 572, "start": 1291.55, "end": 1293.37, "text": "有什么样的博弈手段吗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 573, "start": 1294.33, "end": 1294.95, "text": "是的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 574, "start": 1295.25, "end": 1296.83, "text": "文昭刚才你提到呢说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 575, "start": 1296.97, "end": 1298.47, "text": "这个这个通货膨胀", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 576, "start": 1298.49, "end": 1300.75, "text": "在普通的老百姓身上是悄悄的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 577, "start": 1301.21, "end": 1303.35, "text": "发生的变化 它不是一蹴而就的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 578, "start": 1303.6, "end": 1305.18, "text": "所以呢作为我们普通人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 579, "start": 1305.2, "end": 1307.99, "text": "是有一些方式和方法 来对抗通胀的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 580, "start": 1308.01, "end": 1311.95, "text": "第一条就是不要把自己的大部分资产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 581, "start": 1312.23, "end": 1314.57, "text": "放在这个银行的存款(定存）", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 582, "start": 1315.13, "end": 1317.15, "text": "美国叫CD 加拿大叫GIC", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 583, "start": 1317.4, "end": 1319.1, "text": "还有短期国债这种投资上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 584, "start": 1319.12, "end": 1320.7, "text": "这是不值得的这是第一个", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 585, "start": 1320.93, "end": 1321.83, "text": "第二个呢就是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 586, "start": 1321.85, "end": 1324.07, "text": "你需要投资那些优秀的企业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 587, "start": 1324.15, "end": 1326.09, "text": "因为这些企业它是抗通胀的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 588, "start": 1326.19, "end": 1327.86, "text": "当这个通货膨胀发生的时候", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 589, "start": 1327.87, "end": 1329.15, "text": "它通过它的产品", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 590, "start": 1329.26, "end": 1331.0, "text": "就能够转嫁到消费者身上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 591, "start": 1331.3, "end": 1333.24, "text": "那最有典型的那我们就", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 592, "start": 1333.35, "end": 1335.61, "text": "经常会提到说美国的标普500", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 593, "start": 1335.69, "end": 1336.71, "text": "和纳斯达克100", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 594, "start": 1337.41, "end": 1339.63, "text": "那就是ETF的VOO", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 595, "start": 1339.65, "end": 1341.67, "text": "和纳斯达克的这个100叫QQQ", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 596, "start": 1341.79, "end": 1344.09, "text": "那这个长期投资一直是跑赢大盘的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 597, "start": 1344.11, "end": 1345.69, "text": "巴菲特就就特别推荐", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 598, "start": 1345.71, "end": 1346.89, "text": "说他不在的时候呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 599, "start": 1346.91, "end": 1350.09, "text": "他的家人会90% 投资这个VOO", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 600, "start": 1350.11, "end": 1352.17, "text": "10%投这个短期国债的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 601, "start": 1352.31, "end": 1353.09, "text": "这是第二种", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 602, "start": 1353.86, "end": 1354.64, "text": "还有第三种呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 603, "start": 1354.66, "end": 1356.12, "text": "这个最近这个Ray Dalio", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 604, "start": 1356.14, "end": 1357.56, "text": "就是桥水基金的创始人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 605, "start": 1357.75, "end": 1359.79, "text": "他建议呢这个40万亿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 606, "start": 1359.81, "end": 1362.47, "text": "美国国债之后呢就建议减持国债", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 607, "start": 1362.58, "end": 1365.02, "text": "增加黄金的比例", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 608, "start": 1365.36, "end": 1367.18, "text": "适合在10%到15%", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 609, "start": 1367.29, "end": 1368.31, "text": "当然也适当的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 610, "start": 1368.33, "end": 1369.95, "text": "少量的配置这个数字货币", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 611, "start": 1369.97, "end": 1370.47, "text": "像比特币", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 612, "start": 1370.49, "end": 1373.51, "text": "对美债难道说美债也有违约的可能吗", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 613, "start": 1375.01, "end": 1377.03, "text": "他是这个是这样说的 那个文昭", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 614, "start": 1377.05, "end": 1378.79, "text": "作为桥水基金的创始人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 615, "start": 1378.81, "end": 1379.71, "text": "他是说呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 616, "start": 1379.82, "end": 1382.16, "text": "这个美国国债到了这个程度的时候", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 617, "start": 1382.18, "end": 1383.2, "text": "其实是无解的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 618, "start": 1383.86, "end": 1385.32, "text": "而且呢这个未来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 619, "start": 1385.34, "end": 1387.08, "text": "发生这个金融危机的可能性", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 620, "start": 1387.1, "end": 1388.72, "text": "会在一到五年会出现", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 621, "start": 1388.74, "end": 1390.09, "text": "当然他是这么说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 622, "start": 1390.11, "end": 1391.97, "text": "并不一定金融危机一定会出现", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 623, "start": 1392.12, "end": 1393.46, "text": "最初的时候Dalio前几年", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 624, "start": 1393.48, "end": 1394.9, "text": "是一直是反对比特币的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 625, "start": 1394.92, "end": 1396.16, "text": "这次呢就是因为", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 626, "start": 1396.18, "end": 1398.24, "text": "黄金和比特币的稀缺性", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 627, "start": 1398.33, "end": 1399.63, "text": "它不能被重复印出来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 628, "start": 1399.75, "end": 1402.13, "text": "所以呢这个Dalio就是建议增持黄金", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 629, "start": 1402.15, "end": 1404.3, "text": "10%到15% 而且增持比特币的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 630, "start": 1404.31, "end": 1404.42, "text": "文昭", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 631, "start": 1404.44, "end": 1406.22, "text": "那Jim你是从银行出来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 632, "start": 1406.24, "end": 1408.02, "text": "然后专门去做酒店", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 633, "start": 1408.04, "end": 1409.7, "text": "这种实物资产投资的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 634, "start": 1409.72, "end": 1412.82, "text": "是不是也看重了它的抗通胀属性呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 635, "start": 1413.41, "end": 1414.39, "text": "它是是这样的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 636, "start": 1414.41, "end": 1415.83, "text": "它有两个特别好的属性", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 637, "start": 1415.85, "end": 1418.17, "text": "首先我提到说 大型的房地产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 638, "start": 1418.29, "end": 1420.63, "text": "像写字楼 像居民楼这些", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 639, "start": 1420.75, "end": 1422.57, "text": "那同时呢酒店这个行业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 640, "start": 1422.65, "end": 1424.11, "text": "这种长住酒店", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 641, "start": 1424.47, "end": 1425.85, "text": "尤其是在疫情之后呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 642, "start": 1426.05, "end": 1428.47, "text": "它的这个高现金流、高入住率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 643, "start": 1428.67, "end": 1432.49, "text": "这个和长期资本增值的这几个优良的属性", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 644, "start": 1432.59, "end": 1435.79, "text": "使得长期投资有最好的收益", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 645, "start": 1435.81, "end": 1437.31, "text": "和这个长期的资本增值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 646, "start": 1437.33, "end": 1438.47, "text": "这也是非常优良的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 647, "start": 1438.49, "end": 1440.39, "text": "抗通胀的这个投资的选项", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 648, "start": 1440.41, "end": 1440.75, "text": "文昭", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 649, "start": 1442.22, "end": 1444.52, "text": "那我有一个问题就是说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 650, "start": 1444.7, "end": 1446.28, "text": "代表观众朋友提啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 651, "start": 1446.3, "end": 1449.2, "text": "就是这种实物资产投资的机会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 652, "start": 1449.22, "end": 1452.68, "text": "它是不是通常 是只适合机构投资人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 653, "start": 1452.7, "end": 1454.16, "text": "或者非常有钱的人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 654, "start": 1454.18, "end": 1457.68, "text": "那普通人有没有可能参与呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 655, "start": 1457.7, "end": 1458.88, "text": "像酒店这类投资呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 656, "start": 1458.9, "end": 1460.4, "text": "因为它是门槛相对较高", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 657, "start": 1460.42, "end": 1462.37, "text": "通常是几千万美金的这个", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 658, "start": 1462.39, "end": 1463.53, "text": "一个标的的收购", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 659, "start": 1463.63, "end": 1465.65, "text": "历史上通常是机构投资者多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 660, "start": 1465.67, "end": 1466.45, "text": "那么我们", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 661, "start": 1466.57, "end": 1468.31, "text": "尤其我自己从银行出来之后呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 662, "start": 1468.33, "end": 1471.26, "text": "和一些投资者一起 寻找像万豪", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 663, "start": 1471.35, "end": 1474.02, "text": "和这个希尔顿的优质资产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 664, "start": 1474.18, "end": 1476.28, "text": "那我们这个投资也是吸纳投资者的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 665, "start": 1476.3, "end": 1477.73, "text": "投资者也可以参与 文昭", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 666, "start": 1477.74, "end": 1480.6, "text": "哦对 就是那种私募的方式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 667, "start": 1480.62, "end": 1483.44, "text": "就是一个酒店标的虽然上千万美元", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 668, "start": 1483.46, "end": 1485.01, "text": "但是就像买房子一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 669, "start": 1485.02, "end": 1486.88, "text": "它有一个首付down payment", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 670, "start": 1486.9, "end": 1488.69, "text": "剩下的找银行贷款", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 671, "start": 1488.7, "end": 1490.58, "text": "你down payment的可能是几百万", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 672, "start": 1490.6, "end": 1492.06, "text": "然后这几百万再", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 673, "start": 1492.17, "end": 1494.11, "text": "找几个私募股权投资者", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 674, "start": 1494.13, "end": 1496.39, "text": "一个人出一部分 认购一部分股权", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 675, "start": 1496.41, "end": 1497.15, "text": "这样是吧", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 676, "start": 1497.17, "end": 1497.99, "text": "完全是这样的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 677, "start": 1498.01, "end": 1499.83, "text": "对 这个标的买下来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 678, "start": 1499.94, "end": 1500.6, "text": "是的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 679, "start": 1500.62, "end": 1503.08, "text": "那也就是说这样的投资", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 680, "start": 1503.1, "end": 1504.64, "text": "它仍然是有一定门槛的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 681, "start": 1504.66, "end": 1506.8, "text": "但是说对于普通人来讲的话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 682, "start": 1506.82, "end": 1508.8, "text": "它还是起点比较高的对吧", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 683, "start": 1509.78, "end": 1512.16, "text": "其实有很多人其实也是可以达得到的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 684, "start": 1512.93, "end": 1513.91, "text": "如果你有兴趣的话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 685, "start": 1513.93, "end": 1514.96, "text": "可以到我的网站", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 686, "start": 1514.97, "end": 1517.17, "text": "MatlinHotels来看一下", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 687, "start": 1517.19, "end": 1518.13, "text": "也可以到我的频道上", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 688, "start": 1518.15, "end": 1519.57, "text": "我有很多次介绍了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 689, "start": 1519.59, "end": 1520.93, "text": "这个酒店投资的细节", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 690, "start": 1521.3, "end": 1522.48, "text": "那好谢谢 Jim", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 691, "start": 1522.5, "end": 1524.37, "text": "因为实物投资有一定门槛", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 692, "start": 1524.38, "end": 1525.96, "text": "它不一定对所有人都合适", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 693, "start": 1525.98, "end": 1528.16, "text": "所以咱们这里只是介绍一个知识", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 694, "start": 1528.18, "end": 1531.04, "text": "如果有些朋友是有在这些方面", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 695, "start": 1531.06, "end": 1532.28, "text": "进一步了解的兴趣呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 696, "start": 1532.3, "end": 1535.57, "text": "是可以看一下Jim的YouTube频道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 697, "start": 1535.59, "end": 1537.29, "text": "叫做《东岳看台》", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 698, "start": 1538.14, "end": 1540.65, "text": "或者是访问现在屏幕上的这个网站", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 699, "start": 1540.66, "end": 1542.32, "text": "matlinhotels.com", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 700, "start": 1542.34, "end": 1543.92, "text": "进入其中的联系方式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 701, "start": 1543.94, "end": 1547.18, "text": "那么可以和Jim做更深入的沟通", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 702, "start": 1547.19, "end": 1549.44, "text": "Jim作为咱们这个频道的智囊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 703, "start": 1549.46, "end": 1550.48, "text": "我以后仍然会", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": 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