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      "text": "自動的相信要升息了",
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      "text": "聯準會在升息的結果",
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      "start": 185.272,
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      "text": "就平靜無波",
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      "text": "一切都在金融市場的",
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    },
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      "text": "Price in（已反映)",
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      "start": 190.981,
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      "text": "已經把這個事情計算進來",
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      "id": 63,
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      "text": "我們對照一下2015年的時候",
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      "id": 67,
      "start": 202.335,
      "end": 203.656,
      "text": "要升息的時候",
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      "id": 68,
      "start": 203.656,
      "end": 206.299,
      "text": "那個時候大家無所適從",
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      "id": 69,
      "start": 206.299,
      "end": 207.841,
      "text": "沒有辦法應對",
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      "start": 207.841,
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      "text": "不知道該怎麼辦",
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      "id": 74,
      "start": 215.229,
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      "text": "8月份整個你去看8月份",
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      "text": "摔得一塌糊塗 金融市場慌亂",
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      "start": 221.138,
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      "text": "然後聯準會第三號人物",
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      "id": 77,
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      "text": "紐約聯邦銀行總裁出來講",
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    },
    {
      "id": 78,
      "start": 225.592,
      "end": 227.177,
      "text": "既然這樣大家還沒準備好",
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      "start": 227.177,
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      "text": "那我們9月不升息好了 延後",
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    {
      "id": 80,
      "start": 230.284,
      "end": 232.006,
      "text": "所以第一次升息大家去看紀錄",
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    },
    {
      "id": 81,
      "start": 232.006,
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      "text": "是2015年的12月",
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      "start": 234.109,
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      "text": "那一次利率會議上第一次升息",
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    },
    {
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      "start": 237.073,
      "end": 238.935,
      "text": "結束零利率跟量化寬鬆的",
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    },
    {
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      "start": 238.935,
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      "text": "第一次升息",
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      "id": 85,
      "start": 240.297,
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      "text": "本來是9月份要升了",
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      "id": 86,
      "start": 242.039,
      "end": 245.043,
      "text": "結果大家全球股災啦",
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      "id": 87,
      "start": 245.043,
      "end": 248.247,
      "text": "大家金融市場出現不穩定",
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    },
    {
      "id": 88,
      "start": 248.247,
      "end": 251.311,
      "text": "這一次的升息你看看",
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    },
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      "start": 251.311,
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      "text": "本來在降息對不對",
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      "start": 252.332,
      "end": 253.774,
      "text": "降息不但不降了",
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      "text": "反而升息對不對",
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      "text": "你看這一次的升息沒有恐慌",
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      "text": "所以其實是聯準會引導成功",
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      "start": 260.102,
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      "text": "現在在講說升息的",
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    {
      "id": 95,
      "start": 262.305,
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      "text": "真正的基礎在哪裡",
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      "start": 264.769,
      "end": 265.69,
      "text": "不過這個基礎",
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      "start": 265.69,
      "end": 268.173,
      "text": "毫無疑問就是對抗通膨啦",
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      "start": 268.173,
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      "text": "簡單講今天升息",
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      "start": 270.076,
      "end": 273.06,
      "text": "展現聯準會對通膨問題的重視",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 100,
      "start": 273.06,
      "end": 274.742,
      "text": "展現聯準會對通膨的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 101,
      "start": 274.742,
      "end": 276.564,
      "text": "強硬立場 強硬態度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 102,
      "start": 276.564,
      "end": 278.767,
      "text": "這樣子才能夠為以後的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 103,
      "start": 278.767,
      "end": 281.171,
      "text": "降息創造條件",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 104,
      "start": 281.171,
      "end": 282.633,
      "text": "到時候川普就會滿意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 105,
      "start": 282.633,
      "end": 284.656,
      "text": "因為到時候才有降息的空間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 106,
      "start": 284.656,
      "end": 286.298,
      "text": "不過老師目前看起來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 107,
      "start": 286.298,
      "end": 287.5,
      "text": "還是說年底有可能",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 108,
      "start": 287.5,
      "end": 289.123,
      "text": "或者甚至有人說10月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 109,
      "start": 289.123,
      "end": 291.868,
      "text": "或者12月可能再升一碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 110,
      "start": 291.868,
      "end": 292.93,
      "text": "所以您覺得他還是在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 111,
      "start": 292.93,
      "end": 294.613,
      "text": "為後面的降息做準備",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 112,
      "start": 294.613,
      "end": 299.862,
      "text": "對 今年會升息一碼甚至於兩碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 113,
      "start": 299.862,
      "end": 301.726,
      "text": "明年還會再升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 114,
      "start": 301.726,
      "end": 303.529,
      "text": "你要我預測的話我就告訴你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 115,
      "start": 303.529,
      "end": 306.194,
      "text": "至少升息應該是兩次到三次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 116,
      "start": 306.194,
      "end": 307.842,
      "text": "不會少於兩次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "start": 307.842,
      "end": 310.315,
      "text": "將來利率會從本來的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "start": 310.315,
      "end": 311.501,
      "text": "3.5到3.75%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "start": 311.501,
      "end": 315.169,
      "text": "現在先升到3.75到4.0%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "start": 315.169,
      "end": 316.648,
      "text": "接下來將來會落在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "start": 316.648,
      "end": 318.642,
      "text": "4.25到4.5%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 122,
      "start": 318.642,
      "end": 321.27,
      "text": "就是4.5%上下的一碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 123,
      "start": 321.27,
      "end": 324.004,
      "text": "也可能4.5到4.75%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 124,
      "start": 324.004,
      "end": 326.068,
      "text": "對之前升息之前來講",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 125,
      "start": 326.068,
      "end": 330.618,
      "text": "整個升四碼 一個百分點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 126,
      "start": 330.618,
      "end": 333.524,
      "text": "所以你要我預測升息路徑",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 127,
      "start": 333.524,
      "end": 334.546,
      "text": "不然我先講完",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 128,
      "start": 334.546,
      "end": 335.568,
      "text": "為什麼他升息的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 129,
      "start": 335.568,
      "end": 336.912,
      "text": "我就直接告訴你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 130,
      "start": 336.912,
      "end": 338.153,
      "text": "還有 後面還有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 131,
      "start": 338.153,
      "end": 339.578,
      "text": "升息不會只是一次性動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 132,
      "start": 339.578,
      "end": 340.999,
      "text": "升完就說沒事了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 133,
      "start": 340.999,
      "end": 341.741,
      "text": "不是的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 134,
      "start": 341.741,
      "end": 344.72,
      "text": "一旦升息就是一個升息循環",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 135,
      "start": 344.72,
      "end": 347.043,
      "text": "連續好幾次升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 136,
      "start": 347.043,
      "end": 349.706,
      "text": "兩次是最起碼 不會只有一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 137,
      "start": 349.706,
      "end": 350.667,
      "text": "兩次是最起碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 138,
      "start": 350.667,
      "end": 353.15,
      "text": "說不定是三次 甚至於四次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 139,
      "start": 353.15,
      "end": 355.073,
      "text": "看看通膨接下來的進展",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 140,
      "start": 355.073,
      "end": 356.795,
      "text": "是不是能夠如預期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 141,
      "start": 356.795,
      "end": 359.098,
      "text": "所以關於升息的動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 142,
      "start": 359.098,
      "end": 361.16,
      "text": "我們就直接跳到這裡來講一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "start": 361.16,
      "end": 364.084,
      "text": "現在要了解為什麼他升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "start": 364.084,
      "end": 367.048,
      "text": "升息的話還有一個是操作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "start": 367.048,
      "end": 368.65,
      "text": "理論上當然是因為要對抗通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "start": 368.65,
      "end": 370.172,
      "text": "這個很簡單",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "start": 370.172,
      "end": 371.574,
      "text": "在操作上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "start": 371.574,
      "end": 374.606,
      "text": "他早就釋放升息的訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 149,
      "start": 374.606,
      "end": 377.129,
      "text": "總共有六個訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 150,
      "start": 377.129,
      "end": 378.892,
      "text": "第一個訊號7月29號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 151,
      "start": 378.892,
      "end": 381.134,
      "text": "上一次利率會議",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 152,
      "start": 381.134,
      "end": 383.578,
      "text": "有三個官員投反對票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 153,
      "start": 383.578,
      "end": 386.381,
      "text": "他們是全部贊成要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 154,
      "start": 386.381,
      "end": 387.202,
      "text": "是這樣的反對票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 155,
      "start": 387.202,
      "end": 390.487,
      "text": "上一次是利率維持不動",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 156,
      "start": 390.487,
      "end": 393.15,
      "text": "然後有三個官員說是投反對票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 157,
      "start": 393.15,
      "end": 395.373,
      "text": "聯準會裡面的投票紀錄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "start": 395.373,
      "end": 396.815,
      "text": "如果有反對的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 159,
      "start": 396.815,
      "end": 398.257,
      "text": "像這一次沒有人反對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 160,
      "start": 398.257,
      "end": 400.64,
      "text": "是全票通過嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 161,
      "start": 400.64,
      "end": 402.763,
      "text": "也不見得說沒有反對意見",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 162,
      "start": 402.763,
      "end": 404.137,
      "text": "不同意見",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 163,
      "start": 404.137,
      "end": 405.8,
      "text": "如果有的話通常是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 164,
      "start": 405.8,
      "end": 407.744,
      "text": "一票反對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 165,
      "start": 407.744,
      "end": 412.413,
      "text": "其他的人全部採取主流的意見",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 166,
      "start": 412.413,
      "end": 413.495,
      "text": "有一票反對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 167,
      "start": 413.495,
      "end": 416.621,
      "text": "但是通常這一票只是象徵性的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 168,
      "start": 416.621,
      "end": 418.885,
      "text": "實際上可能兩個 三個 四個反對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 169,
      "start": 418.885,
      "end": 421.029,
      "text": "但是最後推一個人出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 170,
      "start": 421.029,
      "end": 422.832,
      "text": "來表達說我們內部",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 171,
      "start": 422.832,
      "end": 426.157,
      "text": "的確有不同意見這樣子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 172,
      "start": 426.157,
      "end": 427.66,
      "text": "如果真的呈現出來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 173,
      "start": 427.66,
      "end": 429.543,
      "text": "我們有三票 四票 五票反對的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 174,
      "start": 429.543,
      "end": 432.427,
      "text": "雖然我們還是少數沒有過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 175,
      "start": 432.427,
      "end": 434.771,
      "text": "主流意見還是比較多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 176,
      "start": 434.771,
      "end": 435.712,
      "text": "可是這樣的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 177,
      "start": 435.712,
      "end": 438.056,
      "text": "會讓人家覺得聯準會分歧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 178,
      "start": 438.056,
      "end": 439.478,
      "text": "甚至於分裂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 179,
      "start": 439.478,
      "end": 441.18,
      "text": "所以到最後所有不同意見",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 180,
      "start": 441.18,
      "end": 443.182,
      "text": "濃縮成一張反對票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 181,
      "start": 443.182,
      "end": 444.764,
      "text": "就表示說我們這一次有不同意見",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 182,
      "start": 444.764,
      "end": 446.966,
      "text": "內部有不同意見 就這樣而已",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 183,
      "start": 446.966,
      "end": 449.529,
      "text": "可是上一次居然是三票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 184,
      "start": 449.529,
      "end": 450.771,
      "text": "這個非同小可",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 185,
      "start": 450.771,
      "end": 452.673,
      "text": "因為在聯準會的歷史裡面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 186,
      "start": 452.673,
      "end": 455.677,
      "text": "沒有說反對票達到三票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 187,
      "start": 455.677,
      "end": 457.459,
      "text": "所以那一次已經是非常強烈的訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 188,
      "start": 457.459,
      "end": 460.722,
      "text": "你如果在金融圈打滾的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 189,
      "start": 460.722,
      "end": 461.043,
      "text": "就知道故意反對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 190,
      "start": 461.043,
      "end": 463.486,
      "text": "釋放反對票三票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 191,
      "start": 463.486,
      "end": 465.528,
      "text": "這已經在預告下一次要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 192,
      "start": 465.528,
      "end": 466.991,
      "text": "否則的話他完全可以",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 193,
      "start": 466.991,
      "end": 467.953,
      "text": "內部協商好以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 194,
      "start": 467.953,
      "end": 470.478,
      "text": "推一個人出來一張反對票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 195,
      "start": 470.478,
      "end": 471.6,
      "text": "表示有反對意見",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 196,
      "start": 471.6,
      "end": 472.722,
      "text": "不同意見就夠了嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 197,
      "start": 472.722,
      "end": 474.706,
      "text": "為什麼要讓三票出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 198,
      "start": 474.706,
      "end": 475.748,
      "text": "為什麼是三票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 199,
      "start": 475.748,
      "end": 478.273,
      "text": "這樣的三票的數字已經預告說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 200,
      "start": 478.273,
      "end": 480.237,
      "text": "就是在對華爾街發信號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 201,
      "start": 480.237,
      "end": 482.963,
      "text": "華爾街已經早就心知肚明了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 202,
      "start": 482.963,
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      "text": "這是第一個訊號 早期訊號",
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      "id": 203,
      "start": 485.307,
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      "text": "第二個早期訊號",
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      "id": 204,
      "start": 487.955,
      "end": 493.362,
      "text": "就是8月28號全球央行會議",
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    },
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      "id": 205,
      "start": 493.362,
      "end": 495.664,
      "text": "在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)召開",
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    },
    {
      "id": 206,
      "start": 495.664,
      "end": 497.747,
      "text": "主席華許的演講裡面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 207,
      "start": 497.747,
      "end": 501.812,
      "text": "已經強調聯準會對通膨問題的重視",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 208,
      "start": 501.812,
      "end": 503.434,
      "text": "認為這樣的通膨情勢",
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    },
    {
      "id": 209,
      "start": 503.434,
      "end": 505.517,
      "text": "還沒有達到滿意的程度",
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    },
    {
      "id": 210,
      "start": 505.517,
      "end": 507.479,
      "text": "我們還有未完成的工作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 211,
      "start": 507.479,
      "end": 509.161,
      "text": "這個弦外之音的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 212,
      "start": 509.161,
      "end": 511.464,
      "text": "已經在明確暗示要升息了",
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    },
    {
      "id": 213,
      "start": 511.464,
      "end": 514.107,
      "text": "這是第二個早期訊號",
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    },
    {
      "id": 214,
      "start": 514.107,
      "end": 516.404,
      "text": "進入9月 9月4號",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 215,
      "start": 516.404,
      "end": 521.223,
      "text": "勞工部發表就業市場報告",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 216,
      "start": 521.223,
      "end": 523.612,
      "text": "這裡面提到一件事情",
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    },
    {
      "id": 217,
      "start": 523.612,
      "end": 526.459,
      "text": "新增就業人數是16.2萬人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 218,
      "start": 526.459,
      "end": 529.461,
      "text": "比預期的5.6萬人超出很多",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 219,
      "start": 529.461,
      "end": 531.53,
      "text": "這表示就業市場強勁",
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    },
    {
      "id": 220,
      "start": 531.53,
      "end": 533.518,
      "text": "就業市場不是像原先",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 221,
      "start": 533.518,
      "end": 535.305,
      "text": "以為的那麼弱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 222,
      "start": 535.305,
      "end": 537.93,
      "text": "聯準會如果升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 223,
      "start": 537.93,
      "end": 540.736,
      "text": "他最大的擔心是傷到實體經濟",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 224,
      "start": 540.736,
      "end": 542.419,
      "text": "也就是傷到就業市場",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 225,
      "start": 542.419,
      "end": 544.363,
      "text": "現在就業市場如此強勁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 226,
      "start": 544.363,
      "end": 547.93,
      "text": "聯準會升息已經沒有後顧之憂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 227,
      "start": 547.93,
      "end": 550.359,
      "text": "這是第三個訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 228,
      "start": 550.359,
      "end": 552.842,
      "text": "第四個訊號9月4號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 229,
      "start": 552.842,
      "end": 555.406,
      "text": "川普大嘴巴 說你們給我降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 230,
      "start": 555.406,
      "end": 556.367,
      "text": "你們不降息的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 231,
      "start": 556.367,
      "end": 559.572,
      "text": "我就要把對美國有貿易順差的國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 232,
      "start": 559.572,
      "end": 560.873,
      "text": "不再貿易往來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 233,
      "start": 560.873,
      "end": 562.235,
      "text": "當時有這麼一個報導",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 234,
      "start": 562.235,
      "end": 563.517,
      "text": "當然這個是荒唐啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 235,
      "start": 563.517,
      "end": 565.139,
      "text": "從來沒有說什麼貨幣政策",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 236,
      "start": 565.139,
      "end": 566.181,
      "text": "去跟貿易問題掛鉤的啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 237,
      "start": 566.181,
      "end": 567.823,
      "text": "當然大家也知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 238,
      "start": 567.823,
      "end": 570.466,
      "text": "他在發神經亂講話一通",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 239,
      "start": 570.466,
      "end": 574.389,
      "text": "可是這個弦外之音是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 240,
      "start": 574.389,
      "end": 576.131,
      "text": "川普這樣子對聯準會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 241,
      "start": 576.131,
      "end": 578.813,
      "text": "指點江山施加壓力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 242,
      "start": 578.813,
      "end": 582.997,
      "text": "保證聯準會一定升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 243,
      "start": 582.997,
      "end": 586.341,
      "text": "他說要降息 聯準會一定升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 244,
      "start": 586.341,
      "end": 589.344,
      "text": "所以川普那個講話幾乎已經確定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 245,
      "start": 589.344,
      "end": 591.926,
      "text": "這裡補充說明一下為什麼會這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 246,
      "start": 591.926,
      "end": 595.069,
      "text": "任何政治壓力 政治考量",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 247,
      "start": 595.069,
      "end": 598.132,
      "text": "絕對不能讓他進入貨幣決策",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 248,
      "start": 598.132,
      "end": 600.214,
      "text": "貨幣政策的決策過程",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 249,
      "start": 600.214,
      "end": 601.035,
      "text": "為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 250,
      "start": 601.035,
      "end": 603.94,
      "text": "因為如果白宮施加壓力管用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 251,
      "start": 603.94,
      "end": 607.505,
      "text": "請問你作為監督白宮的國會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 252,
      "start": 607.505,
      "end": 609.368,
      "text": "參議院金融委員會主席",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 253,
      "start": 609.368,
      "end": 611.111,
      "text": "眾議院金融委員會主席",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 254,
      "start": 611.111,
      "end": 612.954,
      "text": "還是大牌的參議員",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 255,
      "start": 612.954,
      "end": 615.198,
      "text": "還是多數黨 少數黨領袖講話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 256,
      "start": 615.198,
      "end": 617.401,
      "text": "你聯準會是不是也要看人家臉色",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 257,
      "start": 617.401,
      "end": 619.805,
      "text": "你以為只有白宮可以施加壓力啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 258,
      "start": 619.805,
      "end": 621.468,
      "text": "白宮是行政部門",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 259,
      "start": 621.468,
      "end": 623.732,
      "text": "行政部門是不是被國會來監督的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 260,
      "start": 623.732,
      "end": 625.555,
      "text": "那國會也可以表示意見啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 261,
      "start": 625.555,
      "end": 627.839,
      "text": "那到時候聯準會怎麼辦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 262,
      "start": 627.839,
      "end": 628.982,
      "text": "到時候華爾街",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 263,
      "start": 628.982,
      "end": 630.545,
      "text": "不會再聽聯準會的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 264,
      "start": 630.545,
      "end": 632.108,
      "text": "而是去問聯準會後面的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 265,
      "start": 632.108,
      "end": 633.912,
      "text": "老大哥們怎麼說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 266,
      "start": 633.912,
      "end": 635.074,
      "text": "那他怎麼聽",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 267,
      "start": 635.074,
      "end": 637.88,
      "text": "華爾街當然是展開遊說啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 268,
      "start": 637.88,
      "end": 639.704,
      "text": "你知道各個行業都可以",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 269,
      "start": 639.704,
      "end": 642.682,
      "text": "對國會有遊說活動嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 270,
      "start": 642.682,
      "end": 644.303,
      "text": "他可以透過政治公關公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 271,
      "start": 644.303,
      "end": 647.606,
      "text": "安排跟某某參議員 眾議員見面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 272,
      "start": 647.606,
      "end": 649.428,
      "text": "來講你的訴求主張",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 273,
      "start": 649.428,
      "end": 652.791,
      "text": "所謂的合法的合規的遊說活動嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 274,
      "start": 652.791,
      "end": 654.853,
      "text": "所以華爾街與其整天在那邊做功課",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 275,
      "start": 654.853,
      "end": 656.495,
      "text": "去了解分析聯準會要怎麼做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 276,
      "start": 656.495,
      "end": 659.117,
      "text": "那就不如直接對聯準會後面的老大哥們",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 277,
      "start": 659.117,
      "end": 661.879,
      "text": "展開遊說工作了嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 278,
      "start": 661.879,
      "end": 663.301,
      "text": "那貨幣政策崩潰嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 279,
      "start": 663.301,
      "end": 665.282,
      "text": "貨幣政策無法去運行嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 280,
      "start": 665.282,
      "end": 666.443,
      "text": "所以無論如何",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 281,
      "start": 666.443,
      "end": 667.885,
      "text": "聯準會的貨幣政策",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 282,
      "start": 667.885,
      "end": 669.606,
      "text": "絕對要抗拒政治壓力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 283,
      "start": 669.606,
      "end": 671.668,
      "text": "所以如果川普要他降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 284,
      "start": 671.668,
      "end": 674.914,
      "text": "他一定升息 表示對著幹",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 285,
      "start": 674.914,
      "end": 677.098,
      "text": "向金融市場發出一個訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 286,
      "start": 677.098,
      "end": 680.004,
      "text": "我有央行獨立性你們放心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 287,
      "start": 680.004,
      "end": 681.888,
      "text": "所以川普9月4號講那個話出來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 288,
      "start": 681.888,
      "end": 683.672,
      "text": "我說哈哈那一定升息了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 289,
      "start": 683.672,
      "end": 685.857,
      "text": "9月4號講一定升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 290,
      "start": 685.857,
      "end": 690.161,
      "text": "這再來9月11號通膨數據出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 291,
      "start": 690.161,
      "end": 694.41,
      "text": "通膨數據出來8月份的數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 292,
      "start": 694.41,
      "end": 695.343,
      "text": "因為消費者物價指數(CPI)先出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 293,
      "start": 695.343,
      "end": 696.743,
      "text": "個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 294,
      "start": 696.743,
      "end": 697.745,
      "text": "在月底才會出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 295,
      "start": 697.745,
      "end": 701.759,
      "text": "所以我們先拿 消費者物價指數(CPI)的數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 296,
      "start": 701.759,
      "end": 704.199,
      "text": "來開始討論 消費者物價指數(CPI)的數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 297,
      "start": 704.199,
      "end": 708.258,
      "text": "8月份還是3.4%的整體通膨率啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 298,
      "start": 708.258,
      "end": 710.842,
      "text": "但是問題出在核心的消費者物價指數(CPI)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 299,
      "start": 710.842,
      "end": 713.145,
      "text": "所謂核心的數據是指",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 300,
      "start": 713.145,
      "end": 715.527,
      "text": "把波動性高的能源跟食物",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 301,
      "start": 715.527,
      "end": 716.909,
      "text": "這兩項剔除",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 302,
      "start": 716.909,
      "end": 719.432,
      "text": "這兩項當然就是老百姓最有感覺的啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 303,
      "start": 719.432,
      "end": 720.434,
      "text": "因為它波動性高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 304,
      "start": 720.434,
      "end": 722.516,
      "text": "貨幣政策不可能整天被它牽著走",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 305,
      "start": 722.516,
      "end": 724.979,
      "text": "所以它把這個波動性高的拉掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 306,
      "start": 724.979,
      "end": 727.102,
      "text": "去看那些剩下比較有持續性的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 307,
      "start": 727.102,
      "end": 730.146,
      "text": "比較穩的那些驅動因素",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 308,
      "start": 730.146,
      "end": 734.392,
      "text": "這個核心的部分是0.4%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 309,
      "start": 734.392,
      "end": 738.38,
      "text": "這個比預期的0.2%超過很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 310,
      "start": 738.38,
      "end": 740.624,
      "text": "就是比預期的高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 311,
      "start": 740.624,
      "end": 741.626,
      "text": "這樣的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 312,
      "start": 741.626,
      "end": 743.169,
      "text": "華爾街一看到這個數據以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 313,
      "start": 743.169,
      "end": 743.79,
      "text": "心知肚明啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 314,
      "start": 743.79,
      "end": 745.913,
      "text": "這個通膨的情況",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 315,
      "start": 745.913,
      "end": 749.238,
      "text": "必須要採取緊縮了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 316,
      "start": 751.483,
      "end": 756.352,
      "text": "所以這是一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 317,
      "start": 756.352,
      "end": 758.336,
      "text": "然後我們看到這些情況",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 318,
      "start": 758.336,
      "end": 762.306,
      "text": "已經足夠支持這一次的升息了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 319,
      "start": 762.306,
      "end": 765.011,
      "text": "所以這個通膨數據一出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 320,
      "start": 765.011,
      "end": 769.218,
      "text": "華爾街原來叫做聯準會觀測工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 321,
      "start": 769.218,
      "end": 772.363,
      "text": "市場對升息或不升息的預期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 322,
      "start": 772.363,
      "end": 774.126,
      "text": "馬上從升息可能只有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 323,
      "start": 774.126,
      "end": 776.93,
      "text": "50%多 60%這個水準",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 324,
      "start": 776.93,
      "end": 779.054,
      "text": "直接衝到90%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 325,
      "start": 779.054,
      "end": 782.18,
      "text": "市場已經相信了 升息升定了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 326,
      "start": 782.18,
      "end": 785.386,
      "text": "果然聯準會這個時候就",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 327,
      "start": 785.386,
      "end": 787.73,
      "text": "就是你們都覺得這樣可以了 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 328,
      "start": 787.73,
      "end": 788.712,
      "text": "那就升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 329,
      "start": 788.712,
      "end": 790.075,
      "text": "因為我們以前講過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 330,
      "start": 790.075,
      "end": 791.898,
      "text": "70%是重要門檻",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 331,
      "start": 791.898,
      "end": 792.96,
      "text": "這個預期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 332,
      "start": 792.96,
      "end": 796.066,
      "text": "如果市場的預期超過70%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 333,
      "start": 796.066,
      "end": 798.371,
      "text": "而你聯準會不照做的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 334,
      "start": 798.371,
      "end": 799.653,
      "text": "那麼市場會有一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 335,
      "start": 799.653,
      "end": 801.335,
      "text": "特殊的反應就是說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 336,
      "start": 801.335,
      "end": 802.676,
      "text": "是不是聯準會看到一些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 337,
      "start": 802.676,
      "end": 804.779,
      "text": "我們沒看到的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 338,
      "start": 804.779,
      "end": 806.141,
      "text": "這就會表示說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 339,
      "start": 806.141,
      "end": 808.804,
      "text": "現在市場的不確定性暴增",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 340,
      "start": 808.804,
      "end": 810.166,
      "text": "市場的不確定性暴增",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 341,
      "start": 810.166,
      "end": 811.327,
      "text": "就是一定我們有什麼事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 342,
      "start": 811.327,
      "end": 812.849,
      "text": "我們沒有搞清楚嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 343,
      "start": 812.849,
      "end": 813.69,
      "text": "我們沒有看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 344,
      "start": 813.69,
      "end": 815.252,
      "text": "聯準會看到嘛對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 345,
      "start": 815.252,
      "end": 815.914,
      "text": "所以他才跟我們不一樣嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 346,
      "start": 815.914,
      "end": 819.217,
      "text": "那這個表示說不確定性暴增表示什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 347,
      "start": 819.217,
      "end": 822.041,
      "text": "市場會爆發避險情緒",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 348,
      "start": 822.041,
      "end": 824.885,
      "text": "市場爆發避險情緒以後會怎麼樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 349,
      "start": 824.885,
      "end": 828.739,
      "text": "拋售風險資產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 350,
      "start": 828.739,
      "end": 830.12,
      "text": "那如果降息的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 351,
      "start": 830.12,
      "end": 832.244,
      "text": "如果是降息的話 他也會拋這麼做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 352,
      "start": 832.244,
      "end": 833.466,
      "text": "不是 大家認為應該升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 353,
      "start": 833.466,
      "end": 835.529,
      "text": "你還降息那更嚴重",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 354,
      "start": 835.529,
      "end": 837.532,
      "text": "一定是什麼嚴重的情況",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 355,
      "start": 837.532,
      "end": 838.674,
      "text": "你才要這樣搞",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 356,
      "start": 838.674,
      "end": 839.956,
      "text": "市場整個就倒掉了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 357,
      "start": 839.956,
      "end": 842.36,
      "text": "市場就只好恐慌性拋售了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 358,
      "start": 842.36,
      "end": 844.384,
      "text": "一定是出了狀況了嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 359,
      "start": 844.384,
      "end": 846.387,
      "text": "所以聯準會沒有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 360,
      "start": 846.387,
      "end": 848.39,
      "text": "當市場的預期超過七成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 361,
      "start": 848.39,
      "end": 850.574,
      "text": "表示市場的預期達到了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 362,
      "start": 850.574,
      "end": 851.576,
      "text": "所謂高度一致性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 363,
      "start": 851.576,
      "end": 852.778,
      "text": "一致性夠高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 364,
      "start": 852.778,
      "end": 854.681,
      "text": "一致性夠高的話 你沒有去採行的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 365,
      "start": 854.681,
      "end": 857.006,
      "text": "表示聯準會明明知道而不採行的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 366,
      "start": 857.006,
      "end": 858.407,
      "text": "那市場只好解讀嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 367,
      "start": 858.407,
      "end": 859.649,
      "text": "一定是聯準會看到一些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 368,
      "start": 859.649,
      "end": 860.532,
      "text": "我們沒看到的東西嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 369,
      "start": 860.532,
      "end": 862.234,
      "text": "那這什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 370,
      "start": 862.234,
      "end": 864.779,
      "text": "市場不確定性突然間增加",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 371,
      "start": 864.779,
      "end": 866.181,
      "text": "那怎麼辦 避險情緒暴增嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 372,
      "start": 866.181,
      "end": 868.145,
      "text": "那怎麼辦 拋售風險資產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 373,
      "start": 868.145,
      "end": 871.509,
      "text": "那叫什麼意思 股災嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 374,
      "start": 871.509,
      "end": 872.891,
      "text": "金融市場出現不穩定嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 375,
      "start": 872.891,
      "end": 875.876,
      "text": "聯準會樂見嗎 不樂見嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 376,
      "start": 875.876,
      "end": 876.637,
      "text": "所以老師您不覺得",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 377,
      "start": 876.637,
      "end": 878.5,
      "text": "有些觀察家認為是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 378,
      "start": 878.5,
      "end": 881.444,
      "text": "市場的預期去逼宮到了聯準會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 379,
      "start": 881.444,
      "end": 882.906,
      "text": "去配合市場",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 380,
      "start": 882.906,
      "end": 883.207,
      "text": "但是您會覺得說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 381,
      "start": 883.207,
      "end": 886.152,
      "text": "其實聯準會其實也在準備這個過程",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 382,
      "start": 886.152,
      "end": 889.175,
      "text": "不是 從數據的發布",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 383,
      "start": 889.175,
      "end": 892.339,
      "text": "到一些官員的談話演講",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 384,
      "start": 892.339,
      "end": 899.429,
      "text": "華爾街金融市場已經收集到這些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 385,
      "start": 899.429,
      "end": 901.733,
      "text": "最新的數據跟訊息嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 386,
      "start": 901.733,
      "end": 903.896,
      "text": "包括主席華許",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 387,
      "start": 903.896,
      "end": 905.778,
      "text": "在全球央行會議的演講",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 388,
      "start": 905.778,
      "end": 907.721,
      "text": "他們也聽出端倪了嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 389,
      "start": 907.721,
      "end": 908.923,
      "text": "在這種情況下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 390,
      "start": 908.923,
      "end": 911.307,
      "text": "華爾街覺得也有道理嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 391,
      "start": 911.307,
      "end": 913.47,
      "text": "所以也知道應該升息嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 392,
      "start": 913.47,
      "end": 916.014,
      "text": "所以他們等同於已經認同",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 393,
      "start": 916.014,
      "end": 919.84,
      "text": "聯準會給出來的暗號 暗示或訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 394,
      "start": 919.84,
      "end": 921.563,
      "text": "所以他們已經可以接受了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 395,
      "start": 921.563,
      "end": 923.986,
      "text": "這個時候聯準會如果反而不去做的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 396,
      "start": 923.986,
      "end": 925.068,
      "text": "那會出事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 397,
      "start": 925.068,
      "end": 927.311,
      "text": "所以聯準會一定是在預期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 398,
      "start": 927.311,
      "end": 929.473,
      "text": "超過70%的情況下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 399,
      "start": 929.473,
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      "text": "也就是說市場的預期",
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    },
    {
      "id": 400,
      "start": 931.015,
      "end": 933.058,
      "text": "已經有高度一致性的情況下",
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    },
    {
      "id": 401,
      "start": 933.058,
      "end": 935.581,
      "text": "他就順勢而為 這叫順勢而為",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 402,
      "start": 935.581,
      "end": 937.924,
      "text": "所以聯準會先做的動作",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 403,
      "start": 937.924,
      "end": 942.61,
      "text": "是去引導市場往他期待的方向去走",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 404,
      "start": 942.61,
      "end": 944.272,
      "text": "一旦這個說服成功了",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 405,
      "start": 944.272,
      "end": 945.593,
      "text": "市場接受了對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 406,
      "start": 945.593,
      "end": 948.797,
      "text": "聯準會就假裝說我被你們逼宮",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 407,
      "start": 948.797,
      "end": 949.318,
      "text": "是這樣來的",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 408,
      "start": 949.318,
      "end": 953.123,
      "text": "聯準會先去引導市場的預期",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 409,
      "start": 953.123,
      "end": 955.606,
      "text": "包括數據的發布 包括演講",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 410,
      "start": 955.606,
      "end": 958.41,
      "text": "包括比如說出席國會聽證會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 411,
      "start": 958.41,
      "end": 960.813,
      "text": "還是被媒體採訪",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 412,
      "start": 960.813,
      "end": 963.857,
      "text": "還是參加什麼論壇 發表什麼論文等等",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 413,
      "start": 963.857,
      "end": 966.06,
      "text": "透過各種途徑來發表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 414,
      "start": 966.06,
      "end": 968.343,
      "text": "對經濟通膨等等的看法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 415,
      "start": 968.343,
      "end": 969.805,
      "text": "這些都叫做前瞻指引",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 416,
      "start": 969.805,
      "end": 972.549,
      "text": "但是現在華許比較想要",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 417,
      "start": 972.549,
      "end": 974.211,
      "text": "降低這個前瞻指引",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 418,
      "start": 974.211,
      "end": 975.913,
      "text": "這當然是另外一個話題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 419,
      "start": 975.913,
      "end": 977.235,
      "text": "我是說這一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 420,
      "start": 977.235,
      "end": 981.44,
      "text": "有這麼多的所謂的早期訊號",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 421,
      "start": 981.44,
      "end": 982.681,
      "text": "出來的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 422,
      "start": 982.681,
      "end": 983.903,
      "text": "金融市場已經被說服",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 423,
      "start": 983.903,
      "end": 985.925,
      "text": "認為確實應該升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 424,
      "start": 985.925,
      "end": 986.846,
      "text": "接下來的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 425,
      "start": 986.846,
      "end": 988.268,
      "text": "升息的指引裡面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 426,
      "start": 988.268,
      "end": 992.834,
      "text": "聯準會發布的他們對經濟前景的看法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 427,
      "start": 992.834,
      "end": 995.897,
      "text": "裡面包括經濟增長率稍微上修",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 428,
      "start": 995.897,
      "end": 999.982,
      "text": "通膨保持原來的估計",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 429,
      "start": 999.982,
      "end": 1001.584,
      "text": "好像還是增高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 430,
      "start": 1001.584,
      "end": 1004.668,
      "text": "然後失業的情況也",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 431,
      "start": 1004.668,
      "end": 1007.311,
      "text": "目前的失業狀況也OK",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 432,
      "start": 1007.311,
      "end": 1008.533,
      "text": "4.1%的失業率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 433,
      "start": 1008.533,
      "end": 1010.756,
      "text": "所以就業市場強勁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 434,
      "start": 1010.756,
      "end": 1013.399,
      "text": "通膨蠢蠢欲動有走高的可能",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 435,
      "start": 1013.399,
      "end": 1015.823,
      "text": "然後經濟增長還在比預期的好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 436,
      "start": 1015.823,
      "end": 1019.928,
      "text": "這個表示經濟有可能會出現叫做過熱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 437,
      "start": 1019.928,
      "end": 1021.33,
      "text": "所以聯準會升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 438,
      "start": 1021.33,
      "end": 1024.694,
      "text": "就是在預防經濟過熱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 439,
      "start": 1024.694,
      "end": 1028.76,
      "text": "這裡面再聯繫到風險資產市場是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 440,
      "start": 1028.76,
      "end": 1030.875,
      "text": "在經濟歷史上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 441,
      "start": 1030.875,
      "end": 1034.96,
      "text": "聯準會一旦進入升息循環",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 442,
      "start": 1034.96,
      "end": 1037.043,
      "text": "記住他不是升息的單一動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 443,
      "start": 1037.043,
      "end": 1039.246,
      "text": "說我升一次息 後面就沒事了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 444,
      "start": 1039.246,
      "end": 1040.428,
      "text": "完全不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 445,
      "start": 1040.428,
      "end": 1041.789,
      "text": "升息循環表示",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 446,
      "start": 1041.789,
      "end": 1043.952,
      "text": "一連串的升息週期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 447,
      "start": 1043.952,
      "end": 1045.675,
      "text": "升息的動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 448,
      "start": 1045.675,
      "end": 1047.757,
      "text": "進入升息循環之後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 449,
      "start": 1047.757,
      "end": 1049.059,
      "text": "我們先講一下背景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 450,
      "start": 1049.059,
      "end": 1052.984,
      "text": "就是說如果企業的獲利能力不變",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 451,
      "start": 1052.984,
      "end": 1054.727,
      "text": "但是利率上升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 452,
      "start": 1054.727,
      "end": 1056.609,
      "text": "這個時候股價是下跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 453,
      "start": 1056.609,
      "end": 1060.076,
      "text": "因為用利率去折現未來的現金流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 454,
      "start": 1060.076,
      "end": 1062.4,
      "text": "利率提高當然折現值會下降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 455,
      "start": 1062.4,
      "end": 1063.582,
      "text": "股價會下跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 456,
      "start": 1063.582,
      "end": 1065.286,
      "text": "這個是傳統的財務理論",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 457,
      "start": 1065.286,
      "end": 1066.889,
      "text": "利率升 股價跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 458,
      "start": 1066.889,
      "end": 1067.81,
      "text": "所以大家就會想說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 459,
      "start": 1067.81,
      "end": 1070.375,
      "text": "升息的話股價應該跌對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 460,
      "start": 1070.375,
      "end": 1072.961,
      "text": "可是為什麼沒有 是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 461,
      "start": 1072.961,
      "end": 1075.124,
      "text": "剛剛這個說法有一個前提",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 462,
      "start": 1075.124,
      "end": 1078.089,
      "text": "叫做假設獲利能力不變",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 463,
      "start": 1078.089,
      "end": 1081.414,
      "text": "然後用利率來貼現 算貼現值嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 464,
      "start": 1081.414,
      "end": 1083.877,
      "text": "利率升高當然貼現值就下降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 465,
      "start": 1083.877,
      "end": 1085.46,
      "text": "股價應該降嘛 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 466,
      "start": 1085.46,
      "end": 1086.782,
      "text": "但是請大家注意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 467,
      "start": 1086.782,
      "end": 1088.744,
      "text": "這裡有一個重要的命題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 468,
      "start": 1088.744,
      "end": 1092.089,
      "text": "聯準會會不會在經濟前景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 469,
      "start": 1092.089,
      "end": 1094.898,
      "text": "不看好的情況下去升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 470,
      "start": 1094.898,
      "end": 1095.619,
      "text": "不會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 471,
      "start": 1095.619,
      "end": 1097.882,
      "text": "聯準會敢升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 472,
      "start": 1097.882,
      "end": 1100.265,
      "text": "一定是看好未來經濟前景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 473,
      "start": 1100.265,
      "end": 1104.27,
      "text": "他在預防景氣過熱 他才敢升息嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 474,
      "start": 1104.27,
      "end": 1107.114,
      "text": "所以歷來的歷史紀錄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 475,
      "start": 1107.114,
      "end": 1111.04,
      "text": "聯準會一旦進入升息循環",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 476,
      "start": 1111.04,
      "end": 1114.584,
      "text": "股票市場是走上升趨勢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 477,
      "start": 1114.584,
      "end": 1116.847,
      "text": "你不升息還好 你一升息的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 478,
      "start": 1116.847,
      "end": 1119.711,
      "text": "華爾街全部清楚了 行情就是漲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 479,
      "start": 1119.711,
      "end": 1121.053,
      "text": "很多人告訴你升息的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 480,
      "start": 1121.053,
      "end": 1123.012,
      "text": "股價要跌對吧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 481,
      "start": 1123.012,
      "end": 1124.474,
      "text": "沒有啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 482,
      "start": 1124.474,
      "end": 1126.857,
      "text": "但是這次美股下跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 483,
      "start": 1126.857,
      "end": 1128.419,
      "text": "大家都說是因為升息的因素",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 484,
      "start": 1128.419,
      "end": 1130.221,
      "text": "不是不是 你聽我講",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 485,
      "start": 1130.221,
      "end": 1132.584,
      "text": "升息的前一兩天會跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 486,
      "start": 1132.584,
      "end": 1134.627,
      "text": "然後之後一路漲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 487,
      "start": 1134.627,
      "end": 1136.389,
      "text": "所以你說有沒有跌 好像有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 488,
      "start": 1136.389,
      "end": 1140.234,
      "text": "可是你去看看整個升息循環的歷史",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 489,
      "start": 1140.234,
      "end": 1143.098,
      "text": "你把每一次每一波的升息循環找出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 490,
      "start": 1143.098,
      "end": 1145.861,
      "text": "然後你對應上股票指數嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 491,
      "start": 1145.861,
      "end": 1148.444,
      "text": "你會發現當然指數不會說一路漲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 492,
      "start": 1148.444,
      "end": 1150.326,
      "text": "總是漲多跌少啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 493,
      "start": 1150.326,
      "end": 1151.488,
      "text": "就是走一個上升趨勢啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 494,
      "start": 1151.488,
      "end": 1154.571,
      "text": "那為什麼 就是很簡單嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 495,
      "start": 1154.571,
      "end": 1157.014,
      "text": "聯準會怎麼可能在經濟前景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 496,
      "start": 1157.014,
      "end": 1158.675,
      "text": "不看好的情況下去升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 497,
      "start": 1158.675,
      "end": 1159.356,
      "text": "當然不是嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 498,
      "start": 1159.356,
      "end": 1161.098,
      "text": "他是因為看好經濟前景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 499,
      "start": 1161.098,
      "end": 1162.94,
      "text": "擔心景氣過熱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 500,
      "start": 1162.94,
      "end": 1165.302,
      "text": "用現在的話講叫做對付通膨嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 501,
      "start": 1165.302,
      "end": 1167.385,
      "text": "通膨就是表示過熱嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 502,
      "start": 1167.385,
      "end": 1168.666,
      "text": "所以他要升息嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 503,
      "start": 1168.666,
      "end": 1172.43,
      "text": "來調控經濟增長的速度嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 504,
      "start": 1172.43,
      "end": 1174.768,
      "text": "不要衝得太快嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 505,
      "start": 1174.768,
      "end": 1177.335,
      "text": "所以只要聯準會敢升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 506,
      "start": 1177.335,
      "end": 1179.902,
      "text": "後面一開始大家可能擔心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 507,
      "start": 1179.902,
      "end": 1181.085,
      "text": "可是後面看到什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 508,
      "start": 1181.085,
      "end": 1183.351,
      "text": "看到獲利能力在上升嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 509,
      "start": 1183.351,
      "end": 1184.477,
      "text": "獲利能力上升的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 510,
      "start": 1184.477,
      "end": 1186.159,
      "text": "超過他上升的速度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 511,
      "start": 1186.159,
      "end": 1187.903,
      "text": "超過利率上升的速度嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 512,
      "start": 1187.903,
      "end": 1191.765,
      "text": "你回去看一下30年前的那個IT革命",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 513,
      "start": 1191.765,
      "end": 1193.862,
      "text": "當時聯準會利率一路升欸",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 514,
      "start": 1193.862,
      "end": 1197.431,
      "text": "升到最後那個網路泡沫破掉前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 515,
      "start": 1197.431,
      "end": 1203.18,
      "text": "從6%升到6.5%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 516,
      "start": 1203.18,
      "end": 1204.443,
      "text": "泡沫破掉前是6%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 517,
      "start": 1204.443,
      "end": 1207.149,
      "text": "泡沫破掉之後 3月10號到最高點對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 518,
      "start": 1207.149,
      "end": 1209.234,
      "text": "3月一直摔下來摔到4月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 519,
      "start": 1209.234,
      "end": 1211.86,
      "text": "到5月初的時候利率會議",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 520,
      "start": 1211.86,
      "end": 1213.063,
      "text": "泡沫已經破了喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 521,
      "start": 1213.063,
      "end": 1217.739,
      "text": "他把利率從6%升到6.5% 升兩碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 522,
      "start": 1217.739,
      "end": 1219.891,
      "text": "泡沫破掉還升息升兩碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 523,
      "start": 1219.891,
      "end": 1221.901,
      "text": "現在當然知道那個是錯誤啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 524,
      "start": 1221.901,
      "end": 1223.891,
      "text": "可是當時葛林斯潘怎麼說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 525,
      "start": 1223.891,
      "end": 1226.382,
      "text": "他說這不是泡沫破掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 526,
      "start": 1226.382,
      "end": 1228.311,
      "text": "It is not crash 它不是泡沫破掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 527,
      "start": 1228.311,
      "end": 1229.054,
      "text": "那是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 528,
      "start": 1229.054,
      "end": 1233.76,
      "text": "那是一個修正Correction",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 529,
      "start": 1233.76,
      "end": 1234.741,
      "text": "漲多之後的修正 他這樣認為",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 530,
      "start": 1234.741,
      "end": 1235.582,
      "text": "所以他說照樣升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 531,
      "start": 1235.582,
      "end": 1237.365,
      "text": "當然現在誰都知道嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 532,
      "start": 1237.365,
      "end": 1240.13,
      "text": "泡沫破掉應該趕快降息嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 533,
      "start": 1240.13,
      "end": 1243.716,
      "text": "可是他當時在泡沫已經在3月10號破掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 534,
      "start": 1243.716,
      "end": 1244.999,
      "text": "他在5月初的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 535,
      "start": 1244.999,
      "end": 1247.944,
      "text": "已經摔了一個多月了喔 快兩個月了喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 536,
      "start": 1247.944,
      "end": 1248.565,
      "text": "他照樣升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 537,
      "start": 1248.565,
      "end": 1250.808,
      "text": "當然現在知道那個是犯錯嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 538,
      "start": 1250.808,
      "end": 1252.511,
      "text": "所以現在告訴你的是說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 539,
      "start": 1252.511,
      "end": 1255.415,
      "text": "當你看到聯準會升息的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 540,
      "start": 1255.415,
      "end": 1257.437,
      "text": "預告著一連串的升息動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 541,
      "start": 1257.437,
      "end": 1258.878,
      "text": "叫做升息循環",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 542,
      "start": 1258.878,
      "end": 1260.961,
      "text": "在這個升息循環的過程中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 543,
      "start": 1260.961,
      "end": 1262.522,
      "text": "因為經濟前景看好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 544,
      "start": 1262.522,
      "end": 1264.925,
      "text": "最後反映在企業的獲利能力上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 545,
      "start": 1264.925,
      "end": 1267.548,
      "text": "於是升息只是升這麼一點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 546,
      "start": 1267.548,
      "end": 1269.851,
      "text": "獲利能力上升的更多更大",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 547,
      "start": 1269.851,
      "end": 1272.914,
      "text": "所以股價是走上升趨勢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 548,
      "start": 1272.914,
      "end": 1274.756,
      "text": "可是剛剛宣布的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 549,
      "start": 1274.756,
      "end": 1277.701,
      "text": "獲利能力還沒有上漲啊對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 550,
      "start": 1277.701,
      "end": 1278.603,
      "text": "然後股價先跌啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 551,
      "start": 1278.603,
      "end": 1280.127,
      "text": "短期內先跌一下下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 552,
      "start": 1280.127,
      "end": 1282.514,
      "text": "隨後大家發現其實獲利能力一直好消息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 553,
      "start": 1282.514,
      "end": 1282.975,
      "text": "一直進來嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 554,
      "start": 1282.975,
      "end": 1285.983,
      "text": "為什麼 產業革命嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 555,
      "start": 1285.983,
      "end": 1287.227,
      "text": "當時叫IT革命嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 556,
      "start": 1287.227,
      "end": 1289.526,
      "text": "資訊通訊產業革命",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 557,
      "start": 1289.526,
      "end": 1291.358,
      "text": "我們現在是什麼 AI革命嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 558,
      "start": 1291.358,
      "end": 1292.461,
      "text": "AI革命的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 559,
      "start": 1292.461,
      "end": 1294.448,
      "text": "技術創新提高了勞動生產力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 560,
      "start": 1294.448,
      "end": 1296.214,
      "text": "也提高了資本報酬率嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 561,
      "start": 1296.214,
      "end": 1299.265,
      "text": "資本報酬率可能到15%到20%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 562,
      "start": 1299.265,
      "end": 1301.132,
      "text": "他管你升息一碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 563,
      "start": 1301.132,
      "end": 1301.854,
      "text": "我告訴你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 564,
      "start": 1301.854,
      "end": 1303.299,
      "text": "你升息四碼 一個百分點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 565,
      "start": 1303.299,
      "end": 1304.84,
      "text": "他都沒在怕",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 566,
      "start": 1304.84,
      "end": 1306.002,
      "text": "他的資本報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 567,
      "start": 1306.002,
      "end": 1307.323,
      "text": "超過你那個利率那麼多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 568,
      "start": 1307.323,
      "end": 1308.965,
      "text": "他怕你 不怕啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 569,
      "start": 1308.965,
      "end": 1311.007,
      "text": "所以利率會一直升 升到什麼地方",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 570,
      "start": 1311.007,
      "end": 1313.209,
      "text": "升到泡沫破掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 571,
      "start": 1313.209,
      "end": 1316.853,
      "text": "泡沫沒有破 產業革命不會停",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 572,
      "start": 1316.853,
      "end": 1318.515,
      "text": "所以我簡單講利用這個機會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 573,
      "start": 1318.515,
      "end": 1319.356,
      "text": "跟大家講一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 574,
      "start": 1319.356,
      "end": 1321.218,
      "text": "技術創新推動了產業革命",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 575,
      "start": 1321.218,
      "end": 1325.142,
      "text": "最後一定搞到市場過熱 過度投資",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 576,
      "start": 1325.142,
      "end": 1327.164,
      "text": "資產泡沫化 最後泡沫破掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 577,
      "start": 1327.164,
      "end": 1329.487,
      "text": "泡沫沒有破掉 產業革命不會停",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 578,
      "start": 1329.487,
      "end": 1330.07,
      "text": "我想請問一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 579,
      "start": 1330.07,
      "end": 1331.637,
      "text": "因為您剛剛提到說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 580,
      "start": 1331.637,
      "end": 1334.791,
      "text": "現在的升息是為之後的降息做準備",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 581,
      "start": 1334.791,
      "end": 1336.897,
      "text": "但是AI的產業這次革命",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 582,
      "start": 1336.897,
      "end": 1339.139,
      "text": "看起來短期間不會下降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 583,
      "start": 1339.139,
      "end": 1341.242,
      "text": "應該是一直往上走的趨勢嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 584,
      "start": 1341.242,
      "end": 1342.043,
      "text": "那這樣的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 585,
      "start": 1342.043,
      "end": 1343.384,
      "text": "難道就一直升息上去嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 586,
      "start": 1343.384,
      "end": 1347.729,
      "text": "對 現在聯準會已經錯過升息的最佳窗口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 587,
      "start": 1347.729,
      "end": 1350.693,
      "text": "現在說不定找不到降息的空間了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 588,
      "start": 1350.693,
      "end": 1352.214,
      "text": "他失去降息的空間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 589,
      "start": 1352.214,
      "end": 1354.697,
      "text": "去年下半年應該降息 鮑爾應該降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 590,
      "start": 1354.697,
      "end": 1357.1,
      "text": "您剛講說失去去年降息的窗口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 591,
      "start": 1357.1,
      "end": 1358.562,
      "text": "對 降息的窗口越來越窄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 592,
      "start": 1358.562,
      "end": 1359.262,
      "text": "為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 593,
      "start": 1359.262,
      "end": 1361.326,
      "text": "去年下半年川普吵著要降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 594,
      "start": 1361.326,
      "end": 1362.969,
      "text": "其實鮑爾應該降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 595,
      "start": 1362.969,
      "end": 1365.314,
      "text": "他沒有這個判斷 他是律師",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 596,
      "start": 1365.314,
      "end": 1366.877,
      "text": "他的背景是律師",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 597,
      "start": 1366.877,
      "end": 1368.881,
      "text": "然後今年上半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 598,
      "start": 1368.881,
      "end": 1370.424,
      "text": "川普又吵著要降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 599,
      "start": 1370.424,
      "end": 1371.406,
      "text": "其實應該降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 600,
      "start": 1371.406,
      "end": 1374.606,
      "text": "因為華許是6月才接任",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 601,
      "start": 1378.411,
      "end": 1380.595,
      "text": "在這個之前還是鮑爾當主席",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 602,
      "start": 1380.595,
      "end": 1382.517,
      "text": "鮑爾去年下半年應該降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 603,
      "start": 1382.517,
      "end": 1384.62,
      "text": "今年上半年應該降息 他沒有降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 604,
      "start": 1384.62,
      "end": 1389.447,
      "text": "他很可能讓聯準會錯過降息的窗口了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 605,
      "start": 1389.447,
      "end": 1392.371,
      "text": "接下來的話你找不到 我講給你聽",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 606,
      "start": 1392.371,
      "end": 1394.595,
      "text": "如果經過現在打通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 607,
      "start": 1394.595,
      "end": 1396.337,
      "text": "假定通膨真的降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 608,
      "start": 1396.337,
      "end": 1398.62,
      "text": "也包括年底的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 609,
      "start": 1398.62,
      "end": 1402.445,
      "text": "伊朗戰爭預定要結束",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 610,
      "start": 1402.445,
      "end": 1403.907,
      "text": "然後油價會下來對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 611,
      "start": 1403.907,
      "end": 1407.171,
      "text": "假設這些條件都具備 果然通膨降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 612,
      "start": 1407.171,
      "end": 1408.292,
      "text": "通膨降下來的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 613,
      "start": 1408.292,
      "end": 1410.916,
      "text": "聯準會才有降息的正當性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 614,
      "start": 1410.916,
      "end": 1413.199,
      "text": "所以現在之所以升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 615,
      "start": 1413.199,
      "end": 1415.462,
      "text": "他是要打壓通膨預期心理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 616,
      "start": 1415.462,
      "end": 1418.628,
      "text": "還不是通膨數據喔 是通膨預期心理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 617,
      "start": 1418.628,
      "end": 1419.851,
      "text": "這個打壓下來之後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 618,
      "start": 1419.851,
      "end": 1422.236,
      "text": "影響到企業的定價行為",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 619,
      "start": 1422.236,
      "end": 1426.165,
      "text": "企業可能就覺得不用再跟風去漲價",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 620,
      "start": 1426.165,
      "end": 1428.19,
      "text": "企業的定價行為改變以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 621,
      "start": 1428.19,
      "end": 1430.034,
      "text": "最後反映在通膨數據上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 622,
      "start": 1430.034,
      "end": 1432.259,
      "text": "然後最後你發現通膨數據跌破3%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 623,
      "start": 1432.259,
      "end": 1435.821,
      "text": "變成2.7% 2.5% 2.3%對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 624,
      "start": 1435.821,
      "end": 1437.166,
      "text": "通膨數據降下來對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 625,
      "start": 1437.166,
      "end": 1441.38,
      "text": "大家通膨終於解除這個壓力了 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 626,
      "start": 1441.38,
      "end": 1443.367,
      "text": "正常化嘛 通膨開始正常",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 627,
      "start": 1443.367,
      "end": 1445.113,
      "text": "然後聯準會就有降息空間嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 628,
      "start": 1445.113,
      "end": 1447.801,
      "text": "這個時間會非常短",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 629,
      "start": 1447.801,
      "end": 1450.871,
      "text": "因為現在我們已經開始看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 630,
      "start": 1450.871,
      "end": 1456.049,
      "text": "企業的所謂AI的基礎設施投資正在展開嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 631,
      "start": 1456.049,
      "end": 1458.477,
      "text": "所以很多的東西缺貨嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 632,
      "start": 1458.477,
      "end": 1461.687,
      "text": "包括記憶體缺貨 包括被動元件缺貨嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 633,
      "start": 1461.687,
      "end": 1464.637,
      "text": "很多的那個原物料的這些東西都缺貨嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 634,
      "start": 1464.637,
      "end": 1467.482,
      "text": "所以現在有AI帶來的通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 635,
      "start": 1467.482,
      "end": 1470.312,
      "text": "等到基礎設施都完成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 636,
      "start": 1470.312,
      "end": 1471.898,
      "text": "這個平台出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 637,
      "start": 1471.898,
      "end": 1475.049,
      "text": "各行各業開始來使用這些新的技術平台",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 638,
      "start": 1475.049,
      "end": 1478.0,
      "text": "在他們的領域展開各種商業應用對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 639,
      "start": 1478.0,
      "end": 1481.956,
      "text": "那個時候可能就會像華許期待的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 640,
      "start": 1481.956,
      "end": 1484.36,
      "text": "就看到生產力的提高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 641,
      "start": 1484.36,
      "end": 1487.486,
      "text": "生產力分成勞動生產力跟資本報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 642,
      "start": 1487.486,
      "end": 1490.07,
      "text": "那如果資本報酬率提高的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 643,
      "start": 1490.07,
      "end": 1490.891,
      "text": "你想想看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 644,
      "start": 1490.891,
      "end": 1492.935,
      "text": "如果你是在債券的投資人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 645,
      "start": 1492.935,
      "end": 1496.601,
      "text": "你當然會要求比較高的債券的報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 646,
      "start": 1496.601,
      "end": 1498.405,
      "text": "簡單講就是債券價格要走低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 647,
      "start": 1498.405,
      "end": 1499.747,
      "text": "報酬率要走高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 648,
      "start": 1499.747,
      "end": 1501.571,
      "text": "因為股票的報酬率這麼高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 649,
      "start": 1501.571,
      "end": 1503.856,
      "text": "那我乾脆播一些錢去追逐股票嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 650,
      "start": 1503.856,
      "end": 1505.179,
      "text": "股票的報酬那麼高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 651,
      "start": 1505.179,
      "end": 1508.046,
      "text": "就算打一些折的話 也比債券高嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 652,
      "start": 1508.046,
      "end": 1510.09,
      "text": "所以當生產力提高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 653,
      "start": 1510.09,
      "end": 1511.774,
      "text": "當資本報酬率提高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 654,
      "start": 1511.774,
      "end": 1514.681,
      "text": "那麼聯準會的利率必須跟上來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 655,
      "start": 1514.681,
      "end": 1519.129,
      "text": "否則的話會提早讓景氣過熱跟泡沫化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 656,
      "start": 1519.129,
      "end": 1520.291,
      "text": "那後面更慘",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 657,
      "start": 1520.291,
      "end": 1521.813,
      "text": "所以聯準會到最後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 658,
      "start": 1521.813,
      "end": 1524.277,
      "text": "會因為產業革命的關係",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 659,
      "start": 1524.277,
      "end": 1528.926,
      "text": "必須把利率跟上資本報酬率的提高而升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 660,
      "start": 1528.926,
      "end": 1531.109,
      "text": "升息是為了符合這個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 661,
      "start": 1531.109,
      "end": 1534.255,
      "text": "資本報酬率提高這個趨勢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 662,
      "start": 1534.255,
      "end": 1536.759,
      "text": "在這種情況下 你沒有降息空間嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 663,
      "start": 1536.759,
      "end": 1539.504,
      "text": "所以到時候會變成沒有通膨之下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 664,
      "start": 1539.504,
      "end": 1542.851,
      "text": "實質報酬率的走高 資本報酬率的走高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 665,
      "start": 1542.851,
      "end": 1547.221,
      "text": "讓聯準會的基準利率必須跟著走高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 666,
      "start": 1547.221,
      "end": 1551.129,
      "text": "所以聯準會回過頭來應對經濟情勢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 667,
      "start": 1551.129,
      "end": 1553.595,
      "text": "在沒有通膨的情況下他升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 668,
      "start": 1553.595,
      "end": 1555.699,
      "text": "現在是因為有通膨他升息 不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 669,
      "start": 1555.699,
      "end": 1558.463,
      "text": "隨著AI產業革命的展開",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 670,
      "start": 1558.463,
      "end": 1560.848,
      "text": "將來即使沒有通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 671,
      "start": 1560.848,
      "end": 1563.013,
      "text": "如果有通膨當然升息啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 672,
      "start": 1563.013,
      "end": 1564.236,
      "text": "就算沒有通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 673,
      "start": 1564.236,
      "end": 1566.061,
      "text": "但是因為勞動生產力提高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 674,
      "start": 1566.061,
      "end": 1567.604,
      "text": "資本報酬率提高的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 675,
      "start": 1567.604,
      "end": 1571.248,
      "text": "經濟增長率比預期的好 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 676,
      "start": 1571.248,
      "end": 1573.03,
      "text": "這個時候聯準會必須升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 677,
      "start": 1573.03,
      "end": 1575.955,
      "text": "所以他就會失去降息的空間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 678,
      "start": 1575.955,
      "end": 1578.258,
      "text": "所以降息的時間窗口很窄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 679,
      "start": 1578.258,
      "end": 1581.202,
      "text": "聯準會盡快把通膨打下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 680,
      "start": 1581.202,
      "end": 1582.524,
      "text": "打下來以後有正當性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 681,
      "start": 1582.524,
      "end": 1584.367,
      "text": "立刻降息 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 682,
      "start": 1584.367,
      "end": 1586.29,
      "text": "當然川普也會高興嘛對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 683,
      "start": 1586.29,
      "end": 1589.354,
      "text": "可是這個降息的時間可能會很短暫",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 684,
      "start": 1589.354,
      "end": 1591.858,
      "text": "因為隨後可能就不得不升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 685,
      "start": 1591.858,
      "end": 1592.88,
      "text": "因為產業革命的關係",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 686,
      "start": 1592.88,
      "end": 1594.283,
      "text": "好 感謝我們休息一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 687,
      "start": 1594.283,
      "end": 1594.865,
      "text": "等一下回來看看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 688,
      "start": 1594.865,
      "end": 1598.074,
      "text": "美國接下來後續還有沒有降息的空間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 689,
      "start": 1598.074,
      "end": 1600.28,
      "text": "不然的話川普他到底在想什麼呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 690,
      "start": 1600.28,
      "end": 1602.506,
      "text": "另外的話 對於中國來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 691,
      "start": 1602.506,
      "end": 1604.411,
      "text": "美國的升息對他來說意味著什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 692,
      "start": 1604.411,
      "end": 1606.116,
      "text": "休息一下 馬上回來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 693,
      "start": 1606.116,
      "end": 1606.634,
      "text": "歡迎回到新聞大破解",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 694,
      "start": 1606.634,
      "end": 1608.034,
      "text": "美國聯準會(Fed)呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 695,
      "start": 1608.034,
      "end": 1609.886,
      "text": "睽違3年首次升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 696,
      "start": 1609.886,
      "end": 1611.871,
      "text": "剛吳老師在觀察說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 697,
      "start": 1611.871,
      "end": 1612.774,
      "text": "現在降息的窗口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 698,
      "start": 1612.774,
      "end": 1613.776,
      "text": "可能已經錯過了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 699,
      "start": 1613.776,
      "end": 1614.458,
      "text": "接下來可能因為",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 700,
      "start": 1614.458,
      "end": 1615.581,
      "text": "產業的影響呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 701,
      "start": 1615.581,
      "end": 1617.285,
      "text": "可能會持續地往上升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 702,
      "start": 1617.285,
      "end": 1618.287,
      "text": "那後續還有沒有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 703,
      "start": 1618.287,
      "end": 1618.969,
      "text": "機會降息呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 704,
      "start": 1618.969,
      "end": 1620.012,
      "text": "我們先來談一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 705,
      "start": 1620.012,
      "end": 1621.495,
      "text": "老師我們先有一個問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 706,
      "start": 1621.495,
      "end": 1623.019,
      "text": "在談地緣政治影響之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 707,
      "start": 1623.019,
      "end": 1625.094,
      "text": "先談到就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 708,
      "start": 1625.094,
      "end": 1625.995,
      "text": "美國的期中選舉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 709,
      "start": 1625.995,
      "end": 1626.656,
      "text": "是11月份喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 710,
      "start": 1626.656,
      "end": 1628.059,
      "text": "現在它之前就有人說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 711,
      "start": 1628.059,
      "end": 1630.182,
      "text": "9月這次應該不會升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 712,
      "start": 1630.182,
      "end": 1631.224,
      "text": "因為選舉前嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 713,
      "start": 1631.224,
      "end": 1632.105,
      "text": "那有人說了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 714,
      "start": 1632.105,
      "end": 1632.806,
      "text": "10月也有可能",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 715,
      "start": 1632.806,
      "end": 1634.209,
      "text": "再升息一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 716,
      "start": 1634.209,
      "end": 1635.691,
      "text": "但選舉前可能不會做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 717,
      "start": 1635.691,
      "end": 1637.674,
      "text": "您怎麼看呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 718,
      "start": 1637.674,
      "end": 1639.918,
      "text": "這裡說有人提到說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 719,
      "start": 1639.918,
      "end": 1641.28,
      "text": "面對期中選舉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 720,
      "start": 1641.28,
      "end": 1643.003,
      "text": "在11月初來投票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 721,
      "start": 1643.003,
      "end": 1644.565,
      "text": "那聯準會(Fed)可能不會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 722,
      "start": 1644.565,
      "end": 1646.949,
      "text": "在9月的這一次利率會議來做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 723,
      "start": 1646.949,
      "end": 1648.972,
      "text": "升息的這個動作了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 724,
      "start": 1648.972,
      "end": 1650.774,
      "text": "10月底那一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 725,
      "start": 1650.774,
      "end": 1652.857,
      "text": "因為離11月初太近",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 726,
      "start": 1652.857,
      "end": 1655.1,
      "text": "任何動作等於沒有效果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 727,
      "start": 1655.1,
      "end": 1657.724,
      "text": "因為離那個投票時間太近",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 728,
      "start": 1657.724,
      "end": 1659.306,
      "text": "所以要起到效果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 729,
      "start": 1659.306,
      "end": 1660.427,
      "text": "應該是9月這一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 730,
      "start": 1660.427,
      "end": 1662.39,
      "text": "是最後一次的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 731,
      "start": 1662.39,
      "end": 1663.832,
      "text": "投票前的最後一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 732,
      "start": 1663.832,
      "end": 1665.334,
      "text": "重要的利率會議",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 733,
      "start": 1665.334,
      "end": 1666.496,
      "text": "10月底那一次的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 734,
      "start": 1666.496,
      "end": 1668.018,
      "text": "因為離那個投票太近",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 735,
      "start": 1668.018,
      "end": 1668.739,
      "text": "等於沒有用啦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 736,
      "start": 1668.739,
      "end": 1669.42,
      "text": "是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 737,
      "start": 1669.42,
      "end": 1671.062,
      "text": "所以我們講9月這一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 738,
      "start": 1671.062,
      "end": 1672.163,
      "text": "為什麼聯準會(Fed)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 739,
      "start": 1672.163,
      "end": 1675.488,
      "text": "不會把期中選舉納入考慮",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 740,
      "start": 1675.488,
      "end": 1676.83,
      "text": "因為那不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 741,
      "start": 1676.83,
      "end": 1679.432,
      "text": "貨幣當局的工作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 742,
      "start": 1679.432,
      "end": 1681.816,
      "text": "貨幣當局的不承擔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 743,
      "start": 1681.816,
      "end": 1683.679,
      "text": "選舉輸贏的責任",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 744,
      "start": 1683.679,
      "end": 1686.022,
      "text": "跟我們這邊想的不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 745,
      "start": 1686.022,
      "end": 1686.944,
      "text": "很簡單",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 746,
      "start": 1686.944,
      "end": 1690.149,
      "text": "聯準會(Fed)如果把政治考慮引進",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 747,
      "start": 1690.149,
      "end": 1692.092,
      "text": "貨幣決策過程的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 748,
      "start": 1692.092,
      "end": 1693.794,
      "text": "它是給自己找麻煩",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 749,
      "start": 1693.794,
      "end": 1694.596,
      "text": "為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 750,
      "start": 1694.596,
      "end": 1695.597,
      "text": "你既然考慮政治",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 751,
      "start": 1695.597,
      "end": 1696.298,
      "text": "那好了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 752,
      "start": 1696.298,
      "end": 1697.623,
      "text": "政治壓力來了嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 753,
      "start": 1697.623,
      "end": 1699.585,
      "text": "你既然考慮選舉 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 754,
      "start": 1699.585,
      "end": 1701.567,
      "text": "那你希望這個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 755,
      "start": 1701.567,
      "end": 1703.329,
      "text": "某一黨比較獲利",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 756,
      "start": 1703.329,
      "end": 1705.071,
      "text": "比較有佔便宜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 757,
      "start": 1705.071,
      "end": 1707.213,
      "text": "那另一黨當然會來杯葛你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 758,
      "start": 1707.213,
      "end": 1708.855,
      "text": "你只要把政治考慮",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 759,
      "start": 1708.855,
      "end": 1710.977,
      "text": "納入貨幣決策過程",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 760,
      "start": 1710.977,
      "end": 1712.238,
      "text": "你就會面對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 761,
      "start": 1712.238,
      "end": 1714.761,
      "text": "排山倒海而來的政治壓力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 762,
      "start": 1714.761,
      "end": 1715.742,
      "text": "請問你作為一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 763,
      "start": 1715.742,
      "end": 1718.245,
      "text": "中性的貨幣決策機構",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 764,
      "start": 1718.245,
      "end": 1721.588,
      "text": "你希望整天在政策政治壓力中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 765,
      "start": 1721.588,
      "end": 1723.408,
      "text": "來打滾嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 766,
      "start": 1723.408,
      "end": 1725.075,
      "text": "聯準會(Fed)本身的職責",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 767,
      "start": 1725.075,
      "end": 1726.922,
      "text": "就是維持央行獨立性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 768,
      "start": 1726.922,
      "end": 1728.729,
      "text": "抗拒任何政治壓力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 769,
      "start": 1728.729,
      "end": 1730.056,
      "text": "所以川普講要降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 770,
      "start": 1730.056,
      "end": 1731.93,
      "text": "它一定升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 771,
      "start": 1731.93,
      "end": 1733.312,
      "text": "這下子整個金融市場",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 772,
      "start": 1733.312,
      "end": 1734.433,
      "text": "才會懂了這個信號嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 773,
      "start": 1734.433,
      "end": 1736.015,
      "text": "現在大家不是承認嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 774,
      "start": 1736.015,
      "end": 1737.237,
      "text": "你央行有獨立性嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 775,
      "start": 1737.237,
      "end": 1738.499,
      "text": "大家尊重",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 776,
      "start": 1738.499,
      "end": 1741.443,
      "text": "所以它現在不可能把",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 777,
      "start": 1741.443,
      "end": 1743.265,
      "text": "什麼期中選舉的考慮",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 778,
      "start": 1743.265,
      "end": 1743.726,
      "text": "納進去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 779,
      "start": 1743.726,
      "end": 1746.63,
      "text": "它要不要升息因為離期中選舉太近",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 780,
      "start": 1746.63,
      "end": 1748.372,
      "text": "我9月份就不升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 781,
      "start": 1748.372,
      "end": 1748.933,
      "text": "不會嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 782,
      "start": 1748.933,
      "end": 1749.814,
      "text": "它這種想法的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 783,
      "start": 1749.814,
      "end": 1751.216,
      "text": "是本身是錯誤的嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 784,
      "start": 1751.216,
      "end": 1751.957,
      "text": "他沒有了解",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 785,
      "start": 1751.957,
      "end": 1752.94,
      "text": "聯準會(Fed)的心理嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 786,
      "start": 1752.94,
      "end": 1754.36,
      "text": "那老師我們接著來談",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 787,
      "start": 1754.36,
      "end": 1755.863,
      "text": "就是說地緣政治的影響",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 788,
      "start": 1755.863,
      "end": 1757.205,
      "text": "例如說可能接下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 789,
      "start": 1757.205,
      "end": 1758.788,
      "text": "因為現在是全球央行週",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 790,
      "start": 1758.788,
      "end": 1760.03,
      "text": "例如說我們現在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 791,
      "start": 1760.03,
      "end": 1760.711,
      "text": "大家關注的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 792,
      "start": 1760.711,
      "end": 1762.414,
      "text": "像日本央行跟中國央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 793,
      "start": 1762.414,
      "end": 1763.576,
      "text": "可能會怎麼動",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 794,
      "start": 1763.576,
      "end": 1764.317,
      "text": "你剛才有問",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 795,
      "start": 1764.317,
      "end": 1765.599,
      "text": "但是我還沒有回答",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 796,
      "start": 1765.599,
      "end": 1766.36,
      "text": "我先把這個講完",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 797,
      "start": 1766.36,
      "end": 1767.742,
      "text": "再來講地緣政治影響",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 798,
      "start": 1767.742,
      "end": 1770.607,
      "text": "就是為什麼我說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 799,
      "start": 1770.607,
      "end": 1773.376,
      "text": "降息的窗口越來越窄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 800,
      "start": 1773.376,
      "end": 1774.319,
      "text": "是這樣子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 801,
      "start": 1774.319,
      "end": 1776.226,
      "text": "因為現在必須把",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 802,
      "start": 1776.226,
      "end": 1777.851,
      "text": "通膨(Inflation)打下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 803,
      "start": 1777.851,
      "end": 1779.176,
      "text": "讓通膨數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 804,
      "start": 1779.176,
      "end": 1780.299,
      "text": "先把通膨預期心理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 805,
      "start": 1780.299,
      "end": 1780.721,
      "text": "打下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 806,
      "start": 1780.721,
      "end": 1781.845,
      "text": "讓通膨數據能夠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 807,
      "start": 1781.845,
      "end": 1783.129,
      "text": "降到3%以下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 808,
      "start": 1783.129,
      "end": 1785.913,
      "text": "甚至要到2.5%以下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 809,
      "start": 1785.913,
      "end": 1786.815,
      "text": "這樣的話聯準會(Fed)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 810,
      "start": 1786.815,
      "end": 1788.76,
      "text": "就有降息的正當性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 811,
      "start": 1788.76,
      "end": 1790.866,
      "text": "就是說利率不需要這麼高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 812,
      "start": 1790.866,
      "end": 1792.41,
      "text": "因為通膨已經降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 813,
      "start": 1792.41,
      "end": 1793.072,
      "text": "利率不需要再",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 814,
      "start": 1793.072,
      "end": 1794.114,
      "text": "維持那麼高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 815,
      "start": 1794.114,
      "end": 1795.377,
      "text": "但是現在利率在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 816,
      "start": 1795.377,
      "end": 1797.523,
      "text": "通膨率3%以上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 817,
      "start": 1797.523,
      "end": 1799.036,
      "text": "中間一度到4%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 818,
      "start": 1799.036,
      "end": 1801.837,
      "text": "現在降下來還在3.4%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 819,
      "start": 1801.837,
      "end": 1802.799,
      "text": "大家注意喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 820,
      "start": 1802.799,
      "end": 1806.105,
      "text": "通膨有相當的黏著性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 821,
      "start": 1806.105,
      "end": 1807.969,
      "text": "就是物價上漲以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 822,
      "start": 1807.969,
      "end": 1808.81,
      "text": "有僵固性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 823,
      "start": 1808.81,
      "end": 1810.013,
      "text": "不容易降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 824,
      "start": 1810.013,
      "end": 1811.556,
      "text": "然後呢一些行業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 825,
      "start": 1811.556,
      "end": 1813.019,
      "text": "先漲價以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 826,
      "start": 1813.019,
      "end": 1814.181,
      "text": "後面會陸陸續續有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 827,
      "start": 1814.181,
      "end": 1816.912,
      "text": "其他行業的落後補漲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 828,
      "start": 1816.912,
      "end": 1819.638,
      "text": "所以呢 通膨會維持一陣子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 829,
      "start": 1819.638,
      "end": 1820.7,
      "text": "不會馬上降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 830,
      "start": 1820.7,
      "end": 1822.103,
      "text": "雖然你升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 831,
      "start": 1822.103,
      "end": 1823.546,
      "text": "所以因為這個原因",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 832,
      "start": 1823.546,
      "end": 1824.829,
      "text": "如果不早一點升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 833,
      "start": 1824.829,
      "end": 1826.773,
      "text": "早一點把通膨打下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 834,
      "start": 1826.773,
      "end": 1828.437,
      "text": "那麼通膨居高不下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 835,
      "start": 1828.437,
      "end": 1830.582,
      "text": "利率就會居高不下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 836,
      "start": 1830.582,
      "end": 1832.045,
      "text": "這樣的話 你怎麼降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 837,
      "start": 1832.045,
      "end": 1834.15,
      "text": "所以呢必須儘快透過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 838,
      "start": 1834.15,
      "end": 1836.954,
      "text": "強力的打通膨的動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 839,
      "start": 1836.954,
      "end": 1838.556,
      "text": "把通膨預期心理打下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 840,
      "start": 1838.556,
      "end": 1839.978,
      "text": "把通膨數據打下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 841,
      "start": 1839.978,
      "end": 1840.799,
      "text": "這樣才有一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 842,
      "start": 1840.799,
      "end": 1842.962,
      "text": "降息的正當性跟空間 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 843,
      "start": 1842.962,
      "end": 1844.705,
      "text": "可是呢我們現在處在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 844,
      "start": 1844.705,
      "end": 1846.928,
      "text": "一個產業革命的年代",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 845,
      "start": 1846.928,
      "end": 1849.191,
      "text": "產業革命透過技術創新",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 846,
      "start": 1849.191,
      "end": 1850.753,
      "text": "它會提高勞動生產力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 847,
      "start": 1850.753,
      "end": 1852.815,
      "text": "還有提高資本的報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 848,
      "start": 1852.815,
      "end": 1854.778,
      "text": "資本的報酬率一提高以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 849,
      "start": 1854.778,
      "end": 1856.12,
      "text": "債券這邊的投資人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 850,
      "start": 1856.12,
      "end": 1856.882,
      "text": "就會要求一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 851,
      "start": 1856.882,
      "end": 1857.982,
      "text": "類似提高的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 852,
      "start": 1857.982,
      "end": 1859.324,
      "text": "比較高的報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 853,
      "start": 1859.324,
      "end": 1860.426,
      "text": "否則的話我去買債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 854,
      "start": 1860.426,
      "end": 1861.868,
      "text": "買股票就不買你債券了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 855,
      "start": 1861.868,
      "end": 1864.492,
      "text": "那債券的報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 856,
      "start": 1864.492,
      "end": 1866.054,
      "text": "或殖利率(Yield)提高的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 857,
      "start": 1866.054,
      "end": 1868.318,
      "text": "聯準會(Fed)只好升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 858,
      "start": 1868.318,
      "end": 1869.5,
      "text": "所以在這種情況下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 859,
      "start": 1869.5,
      "end": 1871.724,
      "text": "能降息的空間非常窄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 860,
      "start": 1871.724,
      "end": 1873.587,
      "text": "就是說通膨數據一降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 861,
      "start": 1873.587,
      "end": 1874.909,
      "text": "它就要趕快降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 862,
      "start": 1874.909,
      "end": 1877.113,
      "text": "所以實際上去年下半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 863,
      "start": 1877.113,
      "end": 1878.595,
      "text": "鮑爾應該降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 864,
      "start": 1878.595,
      "end": 1879.577,
      "text": "今年上半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 865,
      "start": 1879.577,
      "end": 1880.879,
      "text": "鮑爾也應該降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 866,
      "start": 1880.879,
      "end": 1882.201,
      "text": "因為這個新主席華許",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 867,
      "start": 1882.201,
      "end": 1883.383,
      "text": "是6月才接任的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 868,
      "start": 1883.383,
      "end": 1885.587,
      "text": "過去那個兩個半年裡面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 869,
      "start": 1885.587,
      "end": 1887.531,
      "text": "都沒有降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 870,
      "start": 1887.531,
      "end": 1889.313,
      "text": "它非常可能聯準會(Fed)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 871,
      "start": 1889.313,
      "end": 1892.258,
      "text": "已經錯過降息的最佳時間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 872,
      "start": 1892.258,
      "end": 1893.351,
      "text": "現在降息的窗口很窄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 873,
      "start": 1893.351,
      "end": 1894.151,
      "text": "因為你利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 874,
      "start": 1894.151,
      "end": 1895.964,
      "text": "因為通膨要降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 875,
      "start": 1895.964,
      "end": 1897.867,
      "text": "才能降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 876,
      "start": 1897.867,
      "end": 1899.15,
      "text": "可是通膨一降下來不久之後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 877,
      "start": 1899.15,
      "end": 1900.773,
      "text": "AI通膨馬上來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 878,
      "start": 1900.773,
      "end": 1902.733,
      "text": "AI的基礎設施",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 879,
      "start": 1902.733,
      "end": 1904.714,
      "text": "鋪天蓋地展開的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 880,
      "start": 1904.714,
      "end": 1906.849,
      "text": "AI的通膨馬上來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 881,
      "start": 1906.849,
      "end": 1909.367,
      "text": "然後呢 AI的帶來的資本報酬率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 882,
      "start": 1909.367,
      "end": 1910.796,
      "text": "隨後跟上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 883,
      "start": 1910.796,
      "end": 1912.284,
      "text": "後面都是升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 884,
      "start": 1912.284,
      "end": 1914.025,
      "text": "好 老師繼續談這個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 885,
      "start": 1914.025,
      "end": 1914.726,
      "text": "關於地緣政治",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 886,
      "start": 1914.726,
      "end": 1916.208,
      "text": "地緣政治這樣喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 887,
      "start": 1916.208,
      "end": 1917.671,
      "text": "首先明天就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 888,
      "start": 1917.671,
      "end": 1919.293,
      "text": "日本央行開會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 889,
      "start": 1919.293,
      "end": 1920.635,
      "text": "日本央行早就得到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 890,
      "start": 1920.635,
      "end": 1923.139,
      "text": "美國這邊的暗示或明示",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 891,
      "start": 1923.139,
      "end": 1925.162,
      "text": "就是說日本必須解決",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 892,
      "start": 1925.162,
      "end": 1926.203,
      "text": "跨國利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 893,
      "start": 1926.203,
      "end": 1927.745,
      "text": "美日利差這個因素",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 894,
      "start": 1927.745,
      "end": 1928.967,
      "text": "因為只要有這個利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 895,
      "start": 1928.967,
      "end": 1930.089,
      "text": "日本利率偏低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 896,
      "start": 1930.089,
      "end": 1931.491,
      "text": "美國利率偏高的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 897,
      "start": 1931.491,
      "end": 1932.793,
      "text": "只要存在這個利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 898,
      "start": 1932.793,
      "end": 1934.856,
      "text": "就會出現套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 899,
      "start": 1934.856,
      "end": 1937.019,
      "text": "我在日本借便宜的資金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 900,
      "start": 1937.019,
      "end": 1938.081,
      "text": "然後呢換成美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 901,
      "start": 1938.081,
      "end": 1939.182,
      "text": "到美國去運用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 902,
      "start": 1939.182,
      "end": 1940.504,
      "text": "到其他地方去運用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 903,
      "start": 1940.504,
      "end": 1941.366,
      "text": "這叫套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 904,
      "start": 1941.366,
      "end": 1942.768,
      "text": "那套利交易的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 905,
      "start": 1942.768,
      "end": 1944.051,
      "text": "主要風險是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 906,
      "start": 1944.051,
      "end": 1945.154,
      "text": "是匯兌風險",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 907,
      "start": 1945.154,
      "end": 1947.199,
      "text": "就是說我賺利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 908,
      "start": 1947.199,
      "end": 1949.063,
      "text": "然後呢我資金流出日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 909,
      "start": 1949.063,
      "end": 1950.987,
      "text": "日本貶值 日圓貶值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 910,
      "start": 1950.987,
      "end": 1951.929,
      "text": "我資金流入美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 911,
      "start": 1951.929,
      "end": 1953.673,
      "text": "美元會升值 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 912,
      "start": 1953.673,
      "end": 1955.979,
      "text": "美元會升值到升過頭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 913,
      "start": 1955.979,
      "end": 1957.903,
      "text": "讓大家擔心它會貶值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 914,
      "start": 1957.903,
      "end": 1959.405,
      "text": "那麼你的美元資產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 915,
      "start": 1959.405,
      "end": 1960.947,
      "text": "就會有貶值的風險 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 916,
      "start": 1960.947,
      "end": 1962.649,
      "text": "換算成日圓的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 917,
      "start": 1962.649,
      "end": 1964.211,
      "text": "美元對日圓要貶值了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 918,
      "start": 1964.211,
      "end": 1965.973,
      "text": "就漲過頭可能拉回",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 919,
      "start": 1965.973,
      "end": 1966.914,
      "text": "可能貶值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 920,
      "start": 1966.914,
      "end": 1968.536,
      "text": "這個貶值的風險",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 921,
      "start": 1968.536,
      "end": 1969.998,
      "text": "比如說我現在利差是3%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 922,
      "start": 1969.998,
      "end": 1971.801,
      "text": "可是我貶值的風險",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 923,
      "start": 1971.801,
      "end": 1972.501,
      "text": "也是3%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 924,
      "start": 1972.501,
      "end": 1973.883,
      "text": "那我就在搞套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 925,
      "start": 1973.883,
      "end": 1974.784,
      "text": "就不合算",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 926,
      "start": 1974.784,
      "end": 1976.226,
      "text": "這樣才會停止套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 927,
      "start": 1976.226,
      "end": 1977.748,
      "text": "才會讓日圓的貶值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 928,
      "start": 1977.748,
      "end": 1978.889,
      "text": "終於告一段落",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 929,
      "start": 1978.889,
      "end": 1980.311,
      "text": "可是這樣代價太大",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 930,
      "start": 1980.311,
      "end": 1982.135,
      "text": "所以呢到最後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 931,
      "start": 1982.135,
      "end": 1984.857,
      "text": "你會看到的就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 932,
      "start": 1984.857,
      "end": 1986.179,
      "text": "套利交易要停下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 933,
      "start": 1986.179,
      "end": 1987.98,
      "text": "一定要縮短這個利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 934,
      "start": 1987.98,
      "end": 1989.021,
      "text": "縮小這個利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 935,
      "start": 1989.021,
      "end": 1990.543,
      "text": "那縮小這個利差的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 936,
      "start": 1990.543,
      "end": 1992.044,
      "text": "日本央行一定要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 937,
      "start": 1992.044,
      "end": 1993.225,
      "text": "那日本央行之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 938,
      "start": 1993.225,
      "end": 1994.226,
      "text": "所以不升息的原因",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 939,
      "start": 1994.226,
      "end": 1995.647,
      "text": "是因為他們認為",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 940,
      "start": 1995.647,
      "end": 1997.709,
      "text": "這個通縮雖然結束",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 941,
      "start": 1997.709,
      "end": 1999.19,
      "text": "日本的通貨緊縮狀態",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 942,
      "start": 1999.19,
      "end": 1999.831,
      "text": "雖然結束",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 943,
      "start": 1999.831,
      "end": 2002.553,
      "text": "通縮雖然結束",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 944,
      "start": 2002.553,
      "end": 2003.795,
      "text": "但是呢這個通膨是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 945,
      "start": 2003.795,
      "end": 2004.855,
      "text": "輸入性通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 946,
      "start": 2004.855,
      "end": 2006.397,
      "text": "是進口的東西變貴",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 947,
      "start": 2006.397,
      "end": 2007.618,
      "text": "成本推高的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 948,
      "start": 2007.618,
      "end": 2009.98,
      "text": "不是日本的國內需求夠強大",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 949,
      "start": 2009.98,
      "end": 2010.961,
      "text": "把通膨帶出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 950,
      "start": 2010.961,
      "end": 2013.104,
      "text": "不是需求帶動的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 951,
      "start": 2013.104,
      "end": 2014.507,
      "text": "是成本推高的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 952,
      "start": 2014.507,
      "end": 2016.371,
      "text": "所以日本央行不願意升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 953,
      "start": 2016.371,
      "end": 2017.353,
      "text": "怕升息打壓到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 954,
      "start": 2017.353,
      "end": 2019.277,
      "text": "日本的景氣國內需求",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 955,
      "start": 2019.277,
      "end": 2020.6,
      "text": "可是日本央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 956,
      "start": 2020.6,
      "end": 2021.842,
      "text": "不敢升息的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 957,
      "start": 2021.842,
      "end": 2023.866,
      "text": "被投機客看破手腳",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 958,
      "start": 2023.866,
      "end": 2025.61,
      "text": "於是他們就去打壓日圓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 959,
      "start": 2025.61,
      "end": 2026.352,
      "text": "做空日圓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 960,
      "start": 2026.352,
      "end": 2027.534,
      "text": "日圓只好貶值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 961,
      "start": 2027.534,
      "end": 2028.556,
      "text": "日圓一貶值的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 962,
      "start": 2028.556,
      "end": 2030.039,
      "text": "進口的東西變得更貴",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 963,
      "start": 2030.039,
      "end": 2030.62,
      "text": "變得更貴",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 964,
      "start": 2030.62,
      "end": 2031.883,
      "text": "你又更不敢升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 965,
      "start": 2031.883,
      "end": 2033.728,
      "text": "這陷入一個惡性循環",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 966,
      "start": 2033.728,
      "end": 2035.693,
      "text": "所以唯一的辦法就是升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 967,
      "start": 2035.693,
      "end": 2037.217,
      "text": "而且而且要連續升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 968,
      "start": 2037.217,
      "end": 2038.099,
      "text": "強力表態",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 969,
      "start": 2038.099,
      "end": 2039.383,
      "text": "這樣整個改變",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 970,
      "start": 2039.383,
      "end": 2040.407,
      "text": "金融市場預期心理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 971,
      "start": 2040.407,
      "end": 2042.15,
      "text": "那個借日圓出去的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 972,
      "start": 2042.15,
      "end": 2043.754,
      "text": "趕快要賣掉資產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 973,
      "start": 2043.754,
      "end": 2046.12,
      "text": "換成日圓來還掉日圓債務",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 974,
      "start": 2046.12,
      "end": 2047.343,
      "text": "所以這樣的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 975,
      "start": 2047.343,
      "end": 2049.328,
      "text": "日本央行一定升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 976,
      "start": 2049.328,
      "end": 2051.171,
      "text": "那現在分兩個情況",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 977,
      "start": 2051.171,
      "end": 2053.174,
      "text": "日本央行升息 美國升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 978,
      "start": 2053.174,
      "end": 2055.698,
      "text": "或者日本央行升息 美國不升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 979,
      "start": 2055.698,
      "end": 2056.7,
      "text": "如果美國不升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 980,
      "start": 2056.7,
      "end": 2057.521,
      "text": "日本央行升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 981,
      "start": 2057.521,
      "end": 2058.362,
      "text": "利差就縮短嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 982,
      "start": 2058.362,
      "end": 2060.265,
      "text": "現在美國升息嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 983,
      "start": 2060.265,
      "end": 2061.868,
      "text": "所以呢日本如果升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 984,
      "start": 2061.868,
      "end": 2062.429,
      "text": "利差還在啊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 985,
      "start": 2062.429,
      "end": 2064.091,
      "text": "維持原狀",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 986,
      "start": 2064.091,
      "end": 2065.814,
      "text": "所以日本必須承諾",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 987,
      "start": 2065.814,
      "end": 2067.577,
      "text": "將來會連續升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 988,
      "start": 2067.577,
      "end": 2068.879,
      "text": "然後呢 讓大家發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 989,
      "start": 2068.879,
      "end": 2070.341,
      "text": "將來的利差會縮小",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 990,
      "start": 2070.341,
      "end": 2072.445,
      "text": "這樣才有助於改善",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 991,
      "start": 2072.445,
      "end": 2075.21,
      "text": "日圓貶值的這個壓力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 992,
      "start": 2075.21,
      "end": 2078.636,
      "text": "所以呢日本央行不但要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 993,
      "start": 2078.636,
      "end": 2079.638,
      "text": "而且還要升得比",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 994,
      "start": 2079.638,
      "end": 2081.26,
      "text": "市場預期的還要超過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 995,
      "start": 2081.26,
      "end": 2082.843,
      "text": "說不定還要升2碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 996,
      "start": 2082.843,
      "end": 2083.925,
      "text": "美國升1碼你升2碼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 997,
      "start": 2083.925,
      "end": 2085.208,
      "text": "這樣才有縮短利差嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 998,
      "start": 2085.208,
      "end": 2087.336,
      "text": "那另外一個觀察利差的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 999,
      "start": 2087.336,
      "end": 2088.159,
      "text": "不是基準利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1000,
      "start": 2088.159,
      "end": 2090.589,
      "text": "是10年期國公債的殖利率(Yield)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1001,
      "start": 2090.589,
      "end": 2091.915,
      "text": "現在的話日本的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1002,
      "start": 2091.915,
      "end": 2093.12,
      "text": "10年期公債殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1003,
      "start": 2093.12,
      "end": 2095.091,
      "text": "已經上升到2.99%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1004,
      "start": 2095.091,
      "end": 2096.701,
      "text": "3.0%這個地步",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1005,
      "start": 2096.701,
      "end": 2098.007,
      "text": "那美國的10年期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1006,
      "start": 2098.007,
      "end": 2098.551,
      "text": "公債殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1007,
      "start": 2098.551,
      "end": 2100.938,
      "text": "現在在4.99% 5.0%這個地步",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1008,
      "start": 2100.938,
      "end": 2101.438,
      "text": "好高喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1009,
      "start": 2101.438,
      "end": 2102.254,
      "text": "然後中國在哪裡呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1010,
      "start": 2102.254,
      "end": 2103.06,
      "text": "中國的10年期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1011,
      "start": 2103.06,
      "end": 2103.684,
      "text": "公債殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1012,
      "start": 2103.684,
      "end": 2106.263,
      "text": "在1.688%這裡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1013,
      "start": 2106.263,
      "end": 2107.009,
      "text": "2%都不到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1014,
      "start": 2107.009,
      "end": 2108.461,
      "text": "所以現在是中國跟",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1015,
      "start": 2108.461,
      "end": 2110.115,
      "text": "美國有利差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1016,
      "start": 2110.115,
      "end": 2111.677,
      "text": "所以國際資金會來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1017,
      "start": 2111.677,
      "end": 2113.419,
      "text": "借人民幣搬出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1018,
      "start": 2113.419,
      "end": 2114.641,
      "text": "做套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1019,
      "start": 2114.641,
      "end": 2116.583,
      "text": "換成美元在其他地方使用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1020,
      "start": 2116.583,
      "end": 2120.008,
      "text": "以前是利用日圓來做套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1021,
      "start": 2120.008,
      "end": 2121.63,
      "text": "接下來非常可能用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1022,
      "start": 2121.63,
      "end": 2123.673,
      "text": "人民幣來當作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1023,
      "start": 2123.673,
      "end": 2124.754,
      "text": "套利交易的貨幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1024,
      "start": 2124.754,
      "end": 2126.276,
      "text": "去借中國的人民幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1025,
      "start": 2126.276,
      "end": 2127.938,
      "text": "然後換成美元到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1026,
      "start": 2127.938,
      "end": 2129.36,
      "text": "其他地方去投資運用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1027,
      "start": 2129.36,
      "end": 2131.703,
      "text": "就相當於原來日圓的角色",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1028,
      "start": 2131.703,
      "end": 2133.245,
      "text": "現在可能由人民幣來做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1029,
      "start": 2133.245,
      "end": 2134.086,
      "text": "那表示什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1030,
      "start": 2134.086,
      "end": 2137.014,
      "text": "表示中國資金更加外流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1031,
      "start": 2137.014,
      "end": 2139.346,
      "text": "然後呢 日本升息的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1032,
      "start": 2139.346,
      "end": 2140.25,
      "text": "資金回流日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1033,
      "start": 2140.25,
      "end": 2141.677,
      "text": "平倉交易對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1034,
      "start": 2141.677,
      "end": 2142.803,
      "text": "資金回流日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1035,
      "start": 2142.803,
      "end": 2144.608,
      "text": "然後資金流出中國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1036,
      "start": 2144.608,
      "end": 2146.992,
      "text": "所以呢 美國這一次的升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1037,
      "start": 2146.992,
      "end": 2148.815,
      "text": "等於在製造一場",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1038,
      "start": 2148.815,
      "end": 2152.06,
      "text": "金融領域的一個大國博弈",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1039,
      "start": 2152.06,
      "end": 2154.043,
      "text": "變成說資金回流日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1040,
      "start": 2154.043,
      "end": 2155.906,
      "text": "然後資金流出中國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1041,
      "start": 2155.906,
      "end": 2158.09,
      "text": "然後呢 美國會得到一些差額",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1042,
      "start": 2158.09,
      "end": 2160.694,
      "text": "就是現在許多大型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1043,
      "start": 2160.694,
      "end": 2162.557,
      "text": "中國的國有銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1044,
      "start": 2162.557,
      "end": 2164.119,
      "text": "國有銀行 大型的喔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1045,
      "start": 2164.119,
      "end": 2165.842,
      "text": "他們現在發現中國的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1046,
      "start": 2165.842,
      "end": 2166.944,
      "text": "10年期公債殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1047,
      "start": 2166.944,
      "end": 2168.979,
      "text": "是1.688%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1048,
      "start": 2168.979,
      "end": 2170.213,
      "text": "可是拿來買美國的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1049,
      "start": 2170.213,
      "end": 2172.165,
      "text": "將近5%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1050,
      "start": 2172.165,
      "end": 2174.69,
      "text": "這個生意是經濟邏輯使然",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1051,
      "start": 2174.69,
      "end": 2176.954,
      "text": "那不是對黨有沒有忠誠的問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1052,
      "start": 2176.954,
      "end": 2177.795,
      "text": "習近平要大家把",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1053,
      "start": 2177.795,
      "end": 2179.258,
      "text": "資金調回國內對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1054,
      "start": 2179.258,
      "end": 2180.84,
      "text": "可是你是大型國有銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1055,
      "start": 2180.84,
      "end": 2182.523,
      "text": "面對這個局面你怎麼做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1056,
      "start": 2182.523,
      "end": 2183.545,
      "text": "現在大型國有銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1057,
      "start": 2183.545,
      "end": 2185.91,
      "text": "把錢拿來買美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1058,
      "start": 2185.91,
      "end": 2188.214,
      "text": "那原來中國人民銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1059,
      "start": 2188.214,
      "end": 2190.918,
      "text": "是在拋售手上的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1060,
      "start": 2190.918,
      "end": 2192.301,
      "text": "美國公債的持有從",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1061,
      "start": 2192.301,
      "end": 2196.377,
      "text": "當初的1.2兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1062,
      "start": 2196.377,
      "end": 2199.317,
      "text": "現在降到不到7000億",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1063,
      "start": 2199.317,
      "end": 2201.119,
      "text": "大概6000多億而已",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1064,
      "start": 2201.119,
      "end": 2202.441,
      "text": "所以這樣人民銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1065,
      "start": 2202.441,
      "end": 2204.584,
      "text": "在拋售手上的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1066,
      "start": 2204.584,
      "end": 2206.186,
      "text": "可是大型國有銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1067,
      "start": 2206.186,
      "end": 2207.648,
      "text": "等於是外匯指定銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1068,
      "start": 2207.648,
      "end": 2210.052,
      "text": "他們在買美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1069,
      "start": 2210.052,
      "end": 2211.674,
      "text": "所以這樣的結果等於是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1070,
      "start": 2211.674,
      "end": 2214.558,
      "text": "把回來的美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1071,
      "start": 2214.558,
      "end": 2216.901,
      "text": "美國資金又送回美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1072,
      "start": 2216.901,
      "end": 2218.904,
      "text": "所以現在的結果變成說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1073,
      "start": 2218.904,
      "end": 2220.726,
      "text": "日本在資金回流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1074,
      "start": 2220.726,
      "end": 2222.528,
      "text": "然後中國在資金流出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1075,
      "start": 2222.528,
      "end": 2224.231,
      "text": "換句話說中國在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1076,
      "start": 2224.231,
      "end": 2226.614,
      "text": "進入通縮狀態",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1077,
      "start": 2226.614,
      "end": 2228.797,
      "text": "日本解除通縮狀態",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1078,
      "start": 2228.797,
      "end": 2230.96,
      "text": "然後換句話說中國將",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1079,
      "start": 2230.96,
      "end": 2232.823,
      "text": "回到30年前的那個日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1080,
      "start": 2232.823,
      "end": 2234.806,
      "text": "90年代初期那個日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1081,
      "start": 2234.806,
      "end": 2237.71,
      "text": "就是開始進入失落的30年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1082,
      "start": 2237.71,
      "end": 2240.194,
      "text": "而日本走出失落的30年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1083,
      "start": 2240.194,
      "end": 2241.355,
      "text": "這個失落的30年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1084,
      "start": 2241.355,
      "end": 2242.637,
      "text": "角色互換",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1085,
      "start": 2242.637,
      "end": 2244.4,
      "text": "關鍵就在10年期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1086,
      "start": 2244.4,
      "end": 2246.223,
      "text": "公債殖利率的交叉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1087,
      "start": 2246.223,
      "end": 2249.027,
      "text": "那這樣的結果印證了是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1088,
      "start": 2249.027,
      "end": 2251.19,
      "text": "國際資金流動決定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1089,
      "start": 2251.19,
      "end": 2252.712,
      "text": "大國之間的興衰",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1090,
      "start": 2252.712,
      "end": 2255.055,
      "text": "那當年日本被打",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1091,
      "start": 2255.055,
      "end": 2256.718,
      "text": "所以呢 失落30年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1092,
      "start": 2256.718,
      "end": 2258.447,
      "text": "現在輪到中國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1093,
      "start": 2258.447,
      "end": 2260.11,
      "text": "整個美國升息的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1094,
      "start": 2260.11,
      "end": 2262.354,
      "text": "地緣政治意義在這裡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1095,
      "start": 2262.354,
      "end": 2264.478,
      "text": "不過老師再回來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1096,
      "start": 2264.478,
      "end": 2265.88,
      "text": "另外一個議題是說",
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    },
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      "id": 1097,
      "start": 2265.88,
      "end": 2267.984,
      "text": "川普一直希望能夠降息",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1098,
      "start": 2267.984,
      "end": 2269.346,
      "text": "因為他覺得說這樣子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1099,
      "start": 2269.346,
      "end": 2270.388,
      "text": "不管國家的發展",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1100,
      "start": 2270.388,
      "end": 2272.191,
      "text": "或者國家的債務的問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1101,
      "start": 2272.191,
      "end": 2273.794,
      "text": "要付的利息問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1102,
      "start": 2273.794,
      "end": 2274.518,
      "text": "所以這部分的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1103,
      "start": 2274.518,
      "end": 2277.24,
      "text": "那您說錯失這個降息窗口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1104,
      "start": 2277.24,
      "end": 2278.402,
      "text": "還能怎麼做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1105,
      "start": 2278.402,
      "end": 2278.904,
      "text": "這個很簡單",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1106,
      "start": 2278.904,
      "end": 2280.827,
      "text": "他之所以會降息的原因",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1107,
      "start": 2280.827,
      "end": 2281.708,
      "text": "原因他有個算盤",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1108,
      "start": 2281.708,
      "end": 2283.714,
      "text": "讓油價回到川普1.0",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1109,
      "start": 2283.714,
      "end": 2285.048,
      "text": "的時候那個區間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1110,
      "start": 2285.048,
      "end": 2286.442,
      "text": "就是40到50美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1111,
      "start": 2286.442,
      "end": 2287.984,
      "text": "那怎麼做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1112,
      "start": 2287.984,
      "end": 2291.008,
      "text": "因為接下來伊朗戰爭結束以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1113,
      "start": 2291.008,
      "end": 2294.493,
      "text": "伊朗會恢復跟石油",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1114,
      "start": 2294.493,
      "end": 2297.076,
      "text": "生產出口相關那些投資",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1115,
      "start": 2297.076,
      "end": 2298.958,
      "text": "然後委內瑞拉也一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1116,
      "start": 2298.958,
      "end": 2300.721,
      "text": "然後必須美國政府介入",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1117,
      "start": 2300.721,
      "end": 2303.265,
      "text": "國際石油公司才有信心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1118,
      "start": 2303.265,
      "end": 2305.287,
      "text": "而不擔心被國有化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1119,
      "start": 2305.287,
      "end": 2306.969,
      "text": "所以這樣的結果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1120,
      "start": 2306.969,
      "end": 2309.232,
      "text": "將來石油供給會增加",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1121,
      "start": 2309.232,
      "end": 2310.213,
      "text": "然後呢 有些國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1122,
      "start": 2310.213,
      "end": 2311.653,
      "text": "還會脫離OPEC",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1123,
      "start": 2311.653,
      "end": 2313.942,
      "text": "不要被配額所限制",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1124,
      "start": 2313.942,
      "end": 2314.403,
      "text": "就像那個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1125,
      "start": 2314.403,
      "end": 2316.371,
      "text": "阿拉伯聯合大公國這樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1126,
      "start": 2316.371,
      "end": 2317.499,
      "text": "然後其他國家可能也會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1127,
      "start": 2317.499,
      "end": 2320.575,
      "text": "可能也會退出OPEC",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1128,
      "start": 2320.575,
      "end": 2322.661,
      "text": "OPEC的石油定價權會萎縮",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1129,
      "start": 2322.661,
      "end": 2324.605,
      "text": "美國想取而代之",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1130,
      "start": 2324.605,
      "end": 2325.588,
      "text": "所以到那個時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1131,
      "start": 2325.588,
      "end": 2327.514,
      "text": "由於委內瑞拉跟",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1132,
      "start": 2327.514,
      "end": 2329.436,
      "text": "那個伊朗的石油供應",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1133,
      "start": 2329.436,
      "end": 2330.94,
      "text": "將來恢復正常",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1134,
      "start": 2330.94,
      "end": 2332.444,
      "text": "那個時候油價一定跌下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1135,
      "start": 2332.444,
      "end": 2334.714,
      "text": "那油價跌下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1136,
      "start": 2334.714,
      "end": 2335.739,
      "text": "跌破50美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1137,
      "start": 2335.739,
      "end": 2337.649,
      "text": "進入40美元這個區間 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1138,
      "start": 2337.649,
      "end": 2338.574,
      "text": "這是川普要的嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1139,
      "start": 2338.574,
      "end": 2339.979,
      "text": "川普1.0的時候要的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1140,
      "start": 2339.979,
      "end": 2341.4,
      "text": "那個時候當然",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1141,
      "start": 2341.4,
      "end": 2342.802,
      "text": "通膨會降下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1142,
      "start": 2342.802,
      "end": 2344.064,
      "text": "當然聯準會(Fed)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1143,
      "start": 2344.064,
      "end": 2345.526,
      "text": "有降息的空間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1144,
      "start": 2345.526,
      "end": 2347.068,
      "text": "但是那個時候什麼時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1145,
      "start": 2347.068,
      "end": 2348.75,
      "text": "坦白講需要一個過程",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1146,
      "start": 2348.75,
      "end": 2350.172,
      "text": "而且你現在伊朗戰爭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1147,
      "start": 2350.172,
      "end": 2351.413,
      "text": "還沒有正式結束",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1148,
      "start": 2351.413,
      "end": 2352.495,
      "text": "然後委內瑞拉跟",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1149,
      "start": 2352.495,
      "end": 2354.037,
      "text": "伊朗的石油的生產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1150,
      "start": 2354.037,
      "end": 2355.519,
      "text": "跟出口還沒有完全",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1151,
      "start": 2355.519,
      "end": 2356.18,
      "text": "恢復正常",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1152,
      "start": 2356.18,
      "end": 2358.222,
      "text": "需要一個過程一個時間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1153,
      "start": 2358.222,
      "end": 2359.384,
      "text": "所以川普等於在預告",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1154,
      "start": 2359.384,
      "end": 2362.388,
      "text": "將來他希望油價跌得夠多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1155,
      "start": 2362.388,
      "end": 2364.091,
      "text": "把通膨數據帶下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1156,
      "start": 2364.091,
      "end": 2365.073,
      "text": "這樣聯準會(Fed)降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1157,
      "start": 2365.073,
      "end": 2365.754,
      "text": "才有正當性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1158,
      "start": 2365.754,
      "end": 2366.896,
      "text": "也必然有正當性嘛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1159,
      "start": 2366.896,
      "end": 2368.659,
      "text": "這是後面的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1160,
      "start": 2368.659,
      "end": 2370.964,
      "text": "只不過川普心急口快",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1161,
      "start": 2370.964,
      "end": 2371.905,
      "text": "把它講出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1162,
      "start": 2371.905,
      "end": 2373.608,
      "text": "就是川普知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1163,
      "start": 2373.608,
      "end": 2375.272,
      "text": "降不降息看的是通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1164,
      "start": 2375.272,
      "end": 2376.513,
      "text": "那通膨看的是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1165,
      "start": 2376.513,
      "end": 2378.557,
      "text": "當然現在毫無疑問是油價",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1166,
      "start": 2378.557,
      "end": 2379.438,
      "text": "可是呢 還有一個問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1167,
      "start": 2379.438,
      "end": 2381.618,
      "text": "就是AI產業革命",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1168,
      "start": 2381.618,
      "end": 2382.642,
      "text": "帶來的通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1169,
      "start": 2382.642,
      "end": 2383.987,
      "text": "這個在後面等著",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1170,
      "start": 2383.987,
      "end": 2385.954,
      "text": "所以呢 降息沒那麼容易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1171,
      "start": 2385.954,
      "end": 2388.082,
      "text": "但是川普當然希望降息 對不對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1172,
      "start": 2388.082,
      "end": 2388.865,
      "text": "那還有一個辦法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1173,
      "start": 2388.865,
      "end": 2389.869,
      "text": "最後達到降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1174,
      "start": 2389.869,
      "end": 2392.252,
      "text": "應該就是說降低公債殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1175,
      "start": 2392.252,
      "end": 2393.354,
      "text": "長期公債殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1176,
      "start": 2393.354,
      "end": 2394.736,
      "text": "什麼辦法知道嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1177,
      "start": 2394.736,
      "end": 2395.357,
      "text": "不知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1178,
      "start": 2395.357,
      "end": 2398.02,
      "text": "中國資金回流美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1179,
      "start": 2398.02,
      "end": 2400.003,
      "text": "現在美國把中國資金逼出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1180,
      "start": 2400.003,
      "end": 2401.405,
      "text": "中國的資金拿來買",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1181,
      "start": 2401.405,
      "end": 2402.326,
      "text": "美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1182,
      "start": 2402.326,
      "end": 2404.249,
      "text": "撐住美國公債價格走高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1183,
      "start": 2404.249,
      "end": 2405.05,
      "text": "殖利率走低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1184,
      "start": 2405.05,
      "end": 2407.032,
      "text": "現在只剩這一招",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1185,
      "start": 2407.032,
      "end": 2407.633,
      "text": "了解",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1186,
      "start": 2407.633,
      "end": 2408.134,
      "text": "好 感謝",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1187,
      "start": 2408.134,
      "end": 2409.748,
      "text": "我們休息一下馬上回來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1188,
      "start": 2409.748,
      "end": 2411.855,
      "text": "歡迎回到新聞大破解",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1189,
      "start": 2411.855,
      "end": 2415.027,
      "text": "川習會預計 9 月 24 日還要上場",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1190,
      "start": 2415.027,
      "end": 2416.632,
      "text": "美國財政部長貝森特",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1191,
      "start": 2416.632,
      "end": 2420.385,
      "text": "本週末就要跟中共副總理何立峰見面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1192,
      "start": 2420.385,
      "end": 2422.643,
      "text": "美中會談會談 AI 還有伊朗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1193,
      "start": 2422.643,
      "end": 2424.254,
      "text": "還有貝森特已經講了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1194,
      "start": 2424.254,
      "end": 2427.517,
      "text": "要談中共跟伊朗之間的金融連結",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1195,
      "start": 2427.517,
      "end": 2431.327,
      "text": "美國財政部 17 號表示旗下的金融犯罪",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1196,
      "start": 2431.327,
      "end": 2435.118,
      "text": "執法網絡已經召集了全球金融機構開會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1197,
      "start": 2435.118,
      "end": 2437.28,
      "text": "披露了伊朗影子銀行 中介人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1198,
      "start": 2437.28,
      "end": 2441.109,
      "text": "空殼公司 軍民兩用採購網絡的情報",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1199,
      "start": 2441.109,
      "end": 2443.417,
      "text": "提供各大銀行所需要的訊息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1200,
      "start": 2443.417,
      "end": 2444.961,
      "text": "要求這些主要銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1201,
      "start": 2444.961,
      "end": 2447.972,
      "text": "切斷跟德黑蘭 伊朗的聯繫",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1202,
      "start": 2447.972,
      "end": 2449.359,
      "text": "而且美國聯邦眾議院",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1203,
      "start": 2449.359,
      "end": 2454.18,
      "text": "也通過了針對俄羅斯的重大制裁跟關稅的法案",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1204,
      "start": 2454.18,
      "end": 2456.853,
      "text": "授權川普更大的權力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1205,
      "start": 2456.853,
      "end": 2461.577,
      "text": "可以針對向俄羅斯購買能源的前五大國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1206,
      "start": 2461.577,
      "end": 2464.603,
      "text": "當然就包括了像中共 印度等等",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1207,
      "start": 2464.603,
      "end": 2467.248,
      "text": "可以課徵最高百分百的關稅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1208,
      "start": 2467.248,
      "end": 2469.812,
      "text": "所以我請教老師他這個法案",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1209,
      "start": 2469.812,
      "end": 2472.156,
      "text": "同時其實也有針對伊朗的部分",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1210,
      "start": 2472.156,
      "end": 2474.179,
      "text": "所以你怎麼看說這樣子連續幾招",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1211,
      "start": 2474.179,
      "end": 2477.205,
      "text": "在川習會前通過這個後續可能走向呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1212,
      "start": 2477.205,
      "end": 2484.565,
      "text": "或是說他可能對美中的金融戰可能起到怎麼樣的作用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    }
  ]
}