1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:29,980
經濟啊。所以接下來習近平真的是可以救川普耶。中國可以救川普耶。好,但到時候買的力道多少呢?好,來接下來還有點時間,我要交給鳳馨姐了。因為大家都很關注喔。美國的十年公債,到了百分之五。其實很多人都說,啊這是一個壓力關卡。所以很多人很怕,我撲百分之五感覺美國會崩盤。但其實好像不是這樣看的。我們先來看,勞心宅宅覺得他可以救美國的貝森特。之前很多招都已經失領了。接下來怎麼辦呢?怪東怪西。

2
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:31,300
就是最好的解方

3
00:00:31,300 --> 00:00:32,740
所以他現在怪給全世界

4
00:00:32,740 --> 00:00:34,180
他說我們這個

5
00:00:34,180 --> 00:00:35,700
美債殖利率之時候會上升

6
00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:36,140
我告訴你

7
00:00:36,140 --> 00:00:37,600
這是一個全球性的問題

8
00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:39,000
這不是我們美國的問題

9
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:40,620
這就跟川普講的一樣

10
00:00:40,620 --> 00:00:41,780
柴油會漲

11
00:00:41,780 --> 00:00:42,320
我跟你說

12
00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:43,380
這絕對跟我們打

13
00:00:43,380 --> 00:00:44,420
美一戰爭沒有關係

14
00:00:44,420 --> 00:00:46,020
那都是俄物戰爭的問題

15
00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:48,080
所以現在美國就是大甩鍋

16
00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,620
所以美國的債務市場

17
00:00:50,620 --> 00:00:52,820
他說就是全球表現最好的

18
00:00:52,820 --> 00:00:54,260
所以我們現在財政部

19
00:00:54,260 --> 00:00:56,300
繼續保持美國公債市場的

20
00:00:56,300 --> 00:00:57,760
穩健與深度

21
00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,300
但問題是現在大家

22
00:00:59,300 --> 00:01:00,840
投资人就没信心嘛

23
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,560
要不然你美国公在十年期

24
00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,440
怎么会突破百分之五呢

25
00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,740
好那再来联准会也预期

26
00:01:06,740 --> 00:01:09,080
9月17号凌晨两点钟

27
00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,560
他应该会公布就是利率的

28
00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:12,600
到底有没有要涨

29
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:13,480
还是维持元跌

30
00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,660
还是跟川普讲的一样会降呢

31
00:01:15,660 --> 00:01:16,840
好但是FedWatch

32
00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,380
我们来看市场的预测

33
00:01:18,380 --> 00:01:21,100
他认为可能会升息一码的几率

34
00:01:21,100 --> 00:01:21,880
是非常高

35
00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,840
目前来到百分之九十二点五

36
00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:26,820
那再来我们看到

37
00:01:26,820 --> 00:01:29,060
十二月还预期也有可能升息

38
00:01:29,060 --> 00:01:30,440
一月是不是有可能

39
00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:32,060
这后面可能太久了

40
00:01:32,060 --> 00:01:33,080
我们就先来讲

41
00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:34,660
即将在眼前的

42
00:01:34,660 --> 00:01:35,820
会升息吗

43
00:01:35,820 --> 00:01:36,440
升多少

44
00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:37,340
凤金姐你怎么看

45
00:01:37,340 --> 00:01:40,340
我先讲这个美在的问题

46
00:01:40,340 --> 00:01:41,580
贝森特呢

47
00:01:41,580 --> 00:01:43,820
其实他已经不是怪东怪西

48
00:01:43,820 --> 00:01:45,340
因为他已经找不到理由了

49
00:01:45,340 --> 00:01:46,640
他也找不到方法

50
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,720
他其实就是潜移巨穷

51
00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,660
他当初去美日共同干预

52
00:01:51,660 --> 00:01:52,640
日元的会市

53
00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,200
他现在就很老实的说

54
00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:55,320
我因为要救美在

55
00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:56,980
因为我不能够让美国

56
00:01:56,980 --> 00:01:59,000
不能让日本央行

57
00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,180
日本政府去卖美债

58
00:02:01,180 --> 00:02:04,760
所以我只好共同来干预日元的会市

59
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,460
那因为他已经没有办法

60
00:02:07,460 --> 00:02:10,460
借由日本跟美国共同来干预会市

61
00:02:10,460 --> 00:02:12,380
他只好施压日本政府

62
00:02:12,380 --> 00:02:15,180
要求日本央行升息升息再升息

63
00:02:15,180 --> 00:02:15,980
所以呢

64
00:02:15,980 --> 00:02:17,640
今天是星期三

65
00:02:17,640 --> 00:02:19,020
到了后天

66
00:02:19,020 --> 00:02:21,220
日本央行一定升息

67
00:02:21,220 --> 00:02:23,920
但是已经不是他升不升息的问题

68
00:02:23,920 --> 00:02:27,940
而是他会升息的速度跟幅度到底有多大

69
00:02:27,940 --> 00:02:31,380
因為他在2024年開始

70
00:02:31,380 --> 00:02:34,120
從這個負的0.1的

71
00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:35,040
這個基準利率

72
00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,200
開始已經有5度的升息

73
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,240
2024年升息兩次

74
00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:40,700
2025年升息兩次

75
00:02:40,700 --> 00:02:42,320
今年的6月再升息

76
00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:43,880
他其實本來是維持著

77
00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,080
大概6個月升息一次的

78
00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:46,980
這樣的一個步調

79
00:02:46,980 --> 00:02:47,820
可是呢

80
00:02:47,820 --> 00:02:49,180
從6月到現在9月

81
00:02:49,180 --> 00:02:51,620
其實短短的3個月的時間

82
00:02:51,620 --> 00:02:53,000
他就再升息

83
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,120
所以未來他是不是就可能

84
00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,320
縮短成為每一個季度都要升息

85
00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,320
因为他就算这一次升息

86
00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,240
到了31年来的高点

87
00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,420
可是他也只有升到1.25%

88
00:03:03,420 --> 00:03:04,440
其实在全世界来讲

89
00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:05,640
还是非常偏低的

90
00:03:05,640 --> 00:03:07,080
所以贝森特现在

91
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:08,080
唯一的方法就是

92
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,980
你不要再用这个

93
00:03:09,980 --> 00:03:11,940
就是干预会式的方式了

94
00:03:11,940 --> 00:03:14,000
你就用快速升息的方式

95
00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:15,640
让你的日元可以回升

96
00:03:15,640 --> 00:03:18,160
所以今天要观察的是日元

97
00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:19,660
那么日本央行

98
00:03:19,660 --> 00:03:21,840
到底升息的速度会有多快

99
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,020
幅度会有多大

100
00:03:23,020 --> 00:03:26,020
那可是光是控制了

101
00:03:26,020 --> 00:03:27,500
日本不去卖公债

102
00:03:27,500 --> 00:03:28,640
就能够解决

103
00:03:28,640 --> 00:03:30,020
美国公债的问题吗

104
00:03:30,020 --> 00:03:31,060
就是没办法

105
00:03:31,060 --> 00:03:33,260
因为现在不是只有日本

106
00:03:33,260 --> 00:03:34,960
他不买美国公债了

107
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,800
现在连挪威主权基金

108
00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:37,420
他们都说

109
00:03:37,420 --> 00:03:39,680
我们现在买的债券当中

110
00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:40,880
美国公债市场

111
00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,140
我们要尽可能的少买

112
00:03:42,140 --> 00:03:43,580
我们要去买别的债券

113
00:03:43,580 --> 00:03:45,720
他就更加的凸显出来

114
00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:47,700
就是他的买家越来越少

115
00:03:47,700 --> 00:03:49,500
可是美国的财政的问题

116
00:03:49,500 --> 00:03:50,440
越来越严重

117
00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,160
所以买家越来越少

118
00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,400
但是他需要的资金

119
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,140
还是在增加当中

120
00:03:57,140 --> 00:03:59,060
那跟他去抢资金的

121
00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:01,760
又非常多的美国的这些AI巨头

122
00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,480
他们不断的发公私债

123
00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:04,620
请问一下

124
00:04:04,620 --> 00:04:06,680
美国的11级公债

125
00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,180
是5%的利率

126
00:04:08,180 --> 00:04:10,220
好像蛮高的

127
00:04:10,220 --> 00:04:12,140
可是如果阿发贝发了公私债

128
00:04:12,140 --> 00:04:13,340
也是10年期的

129
00:04:13,340 --> 00:04:14,600
是6.5%

130
00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:15,840
请问一下想要买阿发贝

131
00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,020
还是买美国公债

132
00:04:17,020 --> 00:04:17,980
对不对

133
00:04:17,980 --> 00:04:19,500
宏廷就会告诉你答案说

134
00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:20,520
当然是买阿发贝

135
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,320
而且还有CB可以买

136
00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,400
可转任公私债

137
00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,120
可转币就可转要更好了

138
00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:26,560
对对对

139
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,160
就有其他更好的可以投资

140
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:28,700
对对对

141
00:04:28,700 --> 00:04:31,560
就是说合币就一定要买美帅

142
00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:32,580
你美国已经

143
00:04:32,580 --> 00:04:35,700
第一你美国已经不是无风险的公债

144
00:04:35,700 --> 00:04:38,780
因为你的债务问题越来越严重

145
00:04:38,780 --> 00:04:40,720
然后第二跟你竞争的

146
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,100
美国的这一些AI巨头

147
00:04:43,100 --> 00:04:45,180
可能比你信用更加良好

148
00:04:45,180 --> 00:04:46,960
而他们的利率更高

149
00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,860
然后同时他们还有很多的

150
00:04:48,860 --> 00:04:51,140
刚刚这个宏廷讲的可转债

151
00:04:51,140 --> 00:04:52,040
就是指说

152
00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:53,760
我如果当你的股票

153
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,000
涨到一定程度的时候

154
00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:55,920
我就可以转换成为

155
00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:56,840
变成你的股票

156
00:04:56,840 --> 00:04:59,880
所以我在你股票不好的时候

157
00:04:59,880 --> 00:05:00,840
赚你的利息

158
00:05:00,840 --> 00:05:02,180
在你股票好的时候

159
00:05:02,180 --> 00:05:03,680
我去赚你的股票差价

160
00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:05,220
这个就是可转载

161
00:05:05,220 --> 00:05:06,040
所以CB

162
00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:07,980
这个基本上是一个

163
00:05:07,980 --> 00:05:10,140
比较复杂的一个投资工具

164
00:05:10,140 --> 00:05:12,020
只有像徐鸿廷这样的人

165
00:05:12,020 --> 00:05:12,700
他买得动

166
00:05:12,700 --> 00:05:13,800
我们是基本上

167
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:14,900
比较难去操作的

168
00:05:14,900 --> 00:05:17,920
所以贝森特

169
00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,100
他固然非常熟悉华尔街

170
00:05:20,100 --> 00:05:20,820
但对不起

171
00:05:20,820 --> 00:05:22,500
他手上的子弹非常的有限

172
00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:23,920
所以他潜力拒求

173
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,160
他只能够不断的用喊话的方式

174
00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,000
但美国到底生不生息

175
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,820
当然因为明天凌晨两点

176
00:05:31,820 --> 00:05:32,600
他就公布了

177
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,040
我认为他生息的几率

178
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:36,380
确实非常非常非常高

179
00:05:36,380 --> 00:05:39,600
90%以上的几率他会生息

180
00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,420
但我也不能排除说

181
00:05:41,420 --> 00:05:42,880
他最后关头不生息

182
00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:44,560
但我要跟各位说的是

183
00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,780
不生息就等于利多吗

184
00:05:46,780 --> 00:05:47,880
答案是错

185
00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:49,360
不生息是利空

186
00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:50,540
为什么

187
00:05:50,540 --> 00:05:52,300
因为不升息

188
00:05:52,300 --> 00:05:53,080
那意味着

189
00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:57,420
它再也不是具有独立性格的央行

190
00:05:57,420 --> 00:05:59,900
那它被政治所操控

191
00:05:59,900 --> 00:06:03,540
任何被认为没有独立性的央行

192
00:06:03,540 --> 00:06:06,220
它的货币跟它的债券都会被抛售

193
00:06:06,220 --> 00:06:09,640
所以它就会导致它的美债殖利率上升得更快

194
00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,980
因为它的债券会被抛售得更严重

195
00:06:11,980 --> 00:06:14,460
那它如果升息一马

196
00:06:14,460 --> 00:06:16,760
那重点不是升息一马

197
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,300
那我觉得升息一马

198
00:06:18,300 --> 00:06:20,360
这个大概90%以上的几率

199
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:21,920
他如果升息一码

200
00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:23,360
大家还会再去看

201
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,980
那但是你会不会连续升息

202
00:06:25,980 --> 00:06:29,180
还是你就升了一码之后就停了

203
00:06:29,180 --> 00:06:30,760
这才是重点

204
00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,160
就如果你是升一码之后就停了

205
00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,180
这个对金融市场来讲最欢迎

206
00:06:36,180 --> 00:06:37,740
因为市场已经

207
00:06:37,740 --> 00:06:40,320
已经是这个已经是

208
00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,400
就已经定价是在你升息一码的状况了

209
00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:44,320
但已经预期了

210
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:45,980
但如果你连续升息

211
00:06:45,980 --> 00:06:48,160
那市场就影响非常大

212
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,020
所以你的这张表当中

213
00:06:50,020 --> 00:06:51,440
其实就重点来了

214
00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:51,900
10月

215
00:06:51,900 --> 00:06:53,580
你要看12月

216
00:06:53,580 --> 00:06:54,060
对

217
00:06:54,060 --> 00:06:55,520
12月的数字

218
00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:57,340
12月的数字当中

219
00:06:57,340 --> 00:06:59,760
那个400到425

220
00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,300
意思是说4%到4.25%

221
00:07:02,300 --> 00:07:05,040
表示说到年底之前

222
00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,020
49.6%的几率会升息两码

223
00:07:09,020 --> 00:07:09,260
对

224
00:07:09,260 --> 00:07:09,820
可是

225
00:07:10,297 --> 00:07:15,157
可是,我指喔,認為會升息三碼的機率是28.6%。

226
00:07:15,577 --> 00:07:22,357
換句話說,認為會升息兩碼或三碼的機率,其實已經接近八成了。

227
00:07:22,357 --> 00:07:26,157
那这件事情的重要性在哪里

228
00:07:26,157 --> 00:07:28,217
你要知道我们从现在

229
00:07:28,217 --> 00:07:31,337
最现在的会议到年底

230
00:07:31,337 --> 00:07:32,817
一共只有三次会议

231
00:07:32,817 --> 00:07:35,857
如果三次会议会升息两码或三码

232
00:07:35,857 --> 00:07:39,257
那就意味着几乎每一次都要升

233
00:07:39,257 --> 00:07:42,577
然后你再来看这张表当中的

234
00:07:42,577 --> 00:07:45,097
明年的7月28号

235
00:07:45,097 --> 00:07:48,237
我们看时隔一年之后

236
00:07:48,237 --> 00:07:51,917
认为会升息一个百分点

237
00:07:51,917 --> 00:07:53,777
的几率是30%

238
00:07:53,777 --> 00:07:56,437
如果再加上升息

239
00:07:56,437 --> 00:07:58,357
5码18%

240
00:07:58,357 --> 00:08:00,057
升息6码

241
00:08:00,057 --> 00:08:02,057
5.9%加总起来

242
00:08:02,057 --> 00:08:04,257
升息一个百分点以上

243
00:08:04,257 --> 00:08:06,297
加总起来的几率超过50%

244
00:08:06,297 --> 00:08:08,217
所以现在市场是

245
00:08:08,217 --> 00:08:09,557
高度压住

246
00:08:09,557 --> 00:08:11,977
连续升息

247
00:08:11,977 --> 00:08:14,357
而且日本人看着都快哭了

248
00:08:14,357 --> 00:08:15,217
说你

249
00:08:15,217 --> 00:08:16,577
对日本人

250
00:08:16,577 --> 00:08:18,457
不是要救我吗

251
00:08:18,457 --> 00:08:20,357
洪廷说的重点来这边

252
00:08:20,357 --> 00:08:24,137
他就说如果你要那么快速的升息

253
00:08:24,137 --> 00:08:25,557
那我怎么办

254
00:08:25,557 --> 00:08:28,457
我要不就是放任我的日元贬值

255
00:08:28,457 --> 00:08:30,417
可是贝森特又会压迫我

256
00:08:30,417 --> 00:08:32,657
那我如果要开速升息的话

257
00:08:32,657 --> 00:08:34,257
我告诉你日本政府受不了

258
00:08:34,257 --> 00:08:35,477
日本企业也受不了

259
00:08:35,477 --> 00:08:38,577
所以现在美日都是困境

260
00:08:38,577 --> 00:08:42,177
这个困境随着油价一直涨上去

261
00:08:42,177 --> 00:08:43,977
真的是变成无解

262
00:08:43,977 --> 00:08:46,857
所以贝森特只能说

263
00:08:46,857 --> 00:08:48,077
这是全球性的问题

264
00:08:48,077 --> 00:08:51,817
現在平說在這場美疫戰爭的前半段

265
00:08:51,817 --> 00:08:52,317
好不好

266
00:08:52,317 --> 00:08:54,517
當時候其實蠻多人

267
00:08:54,517 --> 00:08:55,977
把錢拿去投美股的

268
00:08:55,977 --> 00:08:57,357
美股的這個國際資金

269
00:08:57,357 --> 00:08:59,217
以12個月移動平均價來算

270
00:08:59,217 --> 00:09:01,357
相當於美國GDP的2.8%

271
00:09:01,357 --> 00:09:03,257
高於美債2%

272
00:09:03,257 --> 00:09:06,937
前半就是說今年6月的

273
00:09:06,937 --> 00:09:08,937
今年6月的一年之內

274
00:09:08,937 --> 00:09:10,597
就是前半段

275
00:09:10,597 --> 00:09:12,837
大家對美債還算有信心

276
00:09:12,837 --> 00:09:14,537
美股應該說

277
00:09:14,537 --> 00:09:16,037
大家對美股是有信心的

278
00:09:16,037 --> 00:09:17,397
然後再來

279
00:09:17,397 --> 00:09:18,597
现在大家就在看了

280
00:09:18,597 --> 00:09:20,497
华尔街的钱会流到哪里去呢

281
00:09:20,497 --> 00:09:22,677
被来的欧洲 中东 非洲

282
00:09:22,677 --> 00:09:25,517
全球固定收益的主管职严

283
00:09:25,517 --> 00:09:26,477
他说政府公债

284
00:09:26,477 --> 00:09:27,697
已经不再像过去那样

285
00:09:27,697 --> 00:09:29,317
被视为无风险的资产

286
00:09:29,317 --> 00:09:30,757
刚凤馨姐已经讲了

287
00:09:30,757 --> 00:09:32,117
以前觉得你美国政府

288
00:09:32,117 --> 00:09:32,797
绝对不会倒

289
00:09:32,797 --> 00:09:34,037
你低一点也没关系

290
00:09:34,037 --> 00:09:34,917
你稳稳的嘛

291
00:09:34,917 --> 00:09:35,577
现在发现

292
00:09:35,577 --> 00:09:37,157
好像不是这样

293
00:09:37,157 --> 00:09:38,717
美国十年期公债

294
00:09:38,717 --> 00:09:40,797
突破5%就是一大警讯

295
00:09:40,797 --> 00:09:42,537
30年期的殖利率

296
00:09:42,537 --> 00:09:44,217
今年也有4.83%

297
00:09:44,217 --> 00:09:46,137
升到5.32%了

298
00:09:46,137 --> 00:09:47,977
现在很多分析师是认为

299
00:09:47,977 --> 00:09:48,897
他说这叫做

300
00:09:48,897 --> 00:09:51,737
美国资产市场的巨变

301
00:09:51,737 --> 00:09:54,597
反映民间资产负债蓬勃成长

302
00:09:54,597 --> 00:09:56,897
公共部门却持续恶化

303
00:09:56,897 --> 00:09:58,157
尤其是很多人都说

304
00:09:58,157 --> 00:09:59,497
川普都在炒股啊

305
00:09:59,497 --> 00:10:01,157
川普完成的交易

306
00:10:01,157 --> 00:10:03,817
比国会全体议员加起来

307
00:10:03,817 --> 00:10:04,877
都还要更多

308
00:10:04,877 --> 00:10:07,197
最赚的就是他

309
00:10:07,197 --> 00:10:08,357
宏廷哥

310
00:10:08,357 --> 00:10:09,277
我觉得这是

311
00:10:09,277 --> 00:10:10,917
美国自己

312
00:10:10,917 --> 00:10:13,737
整个国家制度的问题

313
00:10:13,737 --> 00:10:16,957
美國其實是相信民主的國家

314
00:10:16,957 --> 00:10:19,397
所以他的一個態勢很清楚

315
00:10:19,397 --> 00:10:22,037
就是說你做什麼選擇

316
00:10:22,037 --> 00:10:24,477
都讓老百姓們來決定對與錯

317
00:10:24,477 --> 00:10:27,317
那以前大家都認為揭露這件事情

318
00:10:27,317 --> 00:10:29,457
可以造成什麼政府的這個

319
00:10:29,457 --> 00:10:31,197
他們講說accountable

320
00:10:31,197 --> 00:10:33,477
所以我可以檢視

321
00:10:33,477 --> 00:10:34,417
我可以檢驗

322
00:10:34,417 --> 00:10:36,977
我可以檢視這個政治人物

323
00:10:36,977 --> 00:10:39,517
但遇到川普這件事情完全就沒了

324
00:10:39,517 --> 00:10:40,617
所以你看美國

325
00:10:40,617 --> 00:10:43,137
不管是他的這個政治獻金的制度

326
00:10:43,137 --> 00:10:44,817
游說的制度

327
00:10:44,817 --> 00:10:45,637
他的意思就是說

328
00:10:45,637 --> 00:10:47,897
不管你做了再怎麼下災難的事情

329
00:10:47,897 --> 00:10:49,197
你只要有揭露

330
00:10:49,197 --> 00:10:51,777
就一切讓民眾來決定你的未來

331
00:10:51,777 --> 00:10:53,797
這就是真的民主的

332
00:10:53,797 --> 00:10:55,177
這樣的一個大的真諦

333
00:10:55,177 --> 00:10:56,817
但遇到川普這種人

334
00:10:56,817 --> 00:10:58,717
他的臉皮厚到一個程度

335
00:10:58,717 --> 00:11:00,817
然後民眾居然也覺得

336
00:11:00,817 --> 00:11:02,177
在他任期裡面

337
00:11:02,177 --> 00:11:03,857
他如果完全不care

338
00:11:03,857 --> 00:11:04,557
這面子的問題

339
00:11:04,557 --> 00:11:05,497
他做這些選擇

340
00:11:05,497 --> 00:11:06,537
所以你可以看到

341
00:11:06,537 --> 00:11:08,337
其實認真檢視他的交易

342
00:11:08,337 --> 00:11:08,937
他的交易裡面

343
00:11:08,937 --> 00:11:10,497
有非常多利益衝突的問題

344
00:11:10,497 --> 00:11:11,017
對

345
00:11:11,017 --> 00:11:13,377
那這樣的一個利益衝突的問題

346
00:11:13,377 --> 00:11:16,197
司法有在介入嗎

347
00:11:16,197 --> 00:11:18,557
我個人目前暫時打一個問號

348
00:11:18,557 --> 00:11:20,257
那他下來之後會怎麼處理

349
00:11:20,257 --> 00:11:21,797
我還是在打一個問號

350
00:11:21,797 --> 00:11:23,937
那民眾怎麼看這件事情

351
00:11:23,937 --> 00:11:26,457
你會發現好像川普現在慢慢的

352
00:11:26,457 --> 00:11:28,177
把政府對民眾的這種

353
00:11:28,177 --> 00:11:30,317
忍受程度越拉越開

354
00:11:30,317 --> 00:11:31,077
越拉越開

355
00:11:31,077 --> 00:11:33,357
所以這個是一個大問題

356
00:11:33,357 --> 00:11:34,877
那回過頭來講就是說

357
00:11:34,877 --> 00:11:36,857
好 那大家都覺得

358
00:11:36,857 --> 00:11:37,737
我們現在已經進入一個

359
00:11:37,737 --> 00:11:38,977
前所未有的時代了

360
00:11:38,977 --> 00:11:42,037
那為什麼大家買進美股的規模

361
00:11:42,037 --> 00:11:43,177
又比買進美債的多

362
00:11:43,177 --> 00:11:45,117
我認為現在市場

363
00:11:45,117 --> 00:11:47,037
有一個非常不好的投機的性格

364
00:11:47,037 --> 00:11:49,017
就是龐氏騙局

365
00:11:49,017 --> 00:11:50,117
這個泡泡越吹越大

366
00:11:50,117 --> 00:11:50,597
越吹越大

367
00:11:50,597 --> 00:11:51,657
吹到

368
00:11:51,657 --> 00:11:54,637
吹到有點像一部電影的名字

369
00:11:54,637 --> 00:11:55,817
叫大到不能倒

370
00:11:55,817 --> 00:11:59,637
那如果是大到不能倒

371
00:11:59,637 --> 00:12:02,177
那很多人就相信一件事情

372
00:12:02,177 --> 00:12:03,317
就是我如果在一個

373
00:12:03,317 --> 00:12:04,817
大到不能倒的結構裡面

374
00:12:04,817 --> 00:12:07,877
我就不要去care風險的事了

375
00:12:07,877 --> 00:12:08,757
我就讀更大

376
00:12:08,757 --> 00:12:09,397
是 对

377
00:12:09,397 --> 00:12:11,097
所以你看他为什么去买美股

378
00:12:11,097 --> 00:12:12,177
因为好啊

379
00:12:12,177 --> 00:12:13,397
因为美债

380
00:12:13,397 --> 00:12:14,597
因为他相信一件事

381
00:12:14,597 --> 00:12:15,957
就是美债不会出问题

382
00:12:15,957 --> 00:12:18,117
哪怕美债的结构

383
00:12:18,117 --> 00:12:19,857
美债的finance structure

384
00:12:19,857 --> 00:12:20,997
大家看了以后觉得说

385
00:12:20,997 --> 00:12:22,037
哇 这个利息

386
00:12:22,037 --> 00:12:23,057
如果还升息

387
00:12:23,057 --> 00:12:24,257
美债现在这个结构

388
00:12:24,257 --> 00:12:25,537
如果还能升到五码

389
00:12:25,537 --> 00:12:26,417
我跟你讲

390
00:12:26,417 --> 00:12:27,917
那真的是前所未有的

391
00:12:27,917 --> 00:12:29,417
就是全世界来看说

392
00:12:29,417 --> 00:12:30,697
哇 这如果是个公司

393
00:12:30,697 --> 00:12:31,837
他怎么可能还有股仅

394
00:12:31,837 --> 00:12:33,057
他的资产负债表是很高的

395
00:12:33,057 --> 00:12:33,697
那太可怕了

396
00:12:33,697 --> 00:12:35,717
就是产到一个程度了

397
00:12:35,717 --> 00:12:37,157
但凤心姐一开始就讲了

398
00:12:37,157 --> 00:12:38,597
超配合是美国印的

399
00:12:38,597 --> 00:12:40,777
是 所以這也就是為什麼

400
00:12:40,777 --> 00:12:41,697
大家認為就是說

401
00:12:41,697 --> 00:12:43,877
好 那國家不會倒

402
00:12:43,877 --> 00:12:46,777
如果國家不會倒的話

403
00:12:46,777 --> 00:12:47,897
美債這個狀況

404
00:12:47,897 --> 00:12:49,197
要解決美債的狀況

405
00:12:49,197 --> 00:12:50,597
只能創造無限的

406
00:12:50,597 --> 00:12:52,037
Inflation印鈔票

407
00:12:52,037 --> 00:12:53,277
那印鈔票的時候

408
00:12:53,277 --> 00:12:55,397
資產價格就會被拉高

409
00:12:55,397 --> 00:12:56,977
那很多人就在

410
00:12:56,977 --> 00:12:58,097
偷這一件事情

411
00:12:58,097 --> 00:12:58,857
就是說好啦

412
00:12:58,857 --> 00:13:00,397
如果不可能出現

413
00:13:00,397 --> 00:13:00,917
Perfect Stone

414
00:13:00,917 --> 00:13:02,377
那我就買美股吧

415
00:13:02,377 --> 00:13:02,917
因為美股

416
00:13:02,917 --> 00:13:03,757
只要印鈔票

417
00:13:03,757 --> 00:13:04,717
美股水一打開

418
00:13:04,717 --> 00:13:05,697
因為美股就繼續漲

419
00:13:05,697 --> 00:13:06,697
然後大家就是一直

420
00:13:06,697 --> 00:13:08,417
風漲 風漲 風漲 風漲

421
00:13:08,417 --> 00:13:10,737
然後所有人就當作市場負擔表不重要

422
00:13:10,737 --> 00:13:11,997
基本面不重要

423
00:13:11,997 --> 00:13:13,317
那這樣子

424
00:13:13,317 --> 00:13:14,957
只是這個盛宴到底

425
00:13:14,957 --> 00:13:17,917
到底會走成什麼樣子

426
00:13:17,917 --> 00:13:19,557
我認為沒有人知道

427
00:13:19,557 --> 00:13:21,637
因為08年的金融海嘯

428
00:13:21,637 --> 00:13:23,557
還有一點脈絡可循

429
00:13:23,557 --> 00:13:24,697
現在這個脈絡

430
00:13:24,697 --> 00:13:26,197
配合川普的這樣子的

431
00:13:26,197 --> 00:13:28,457
川普所主導的經濟幕僚

432
00:13:28,457 --> 00:13:29,717
然後再加上

433
00:13:29,717 --> 00:13:31,417
現在的這個態勢

434
00:13:31,417 --> 00:13:35,497
我真的很難預測

435
00:13:35,497 --> 00:13:36,857
我必須講我真的很難預測

436
00:13:36,857 --> 00:13:37,777
但是說老實話

437
00:13:37,777 --> 00:13:39,777
你稍微有一點經濟概念的人

438
00:13:39,777 --> 00:13:41,357
所有的基本面

439
00:13:41,357 --> 00:13:42,977
跟所有經濟的專家

440
00:13:42,977 --> 00:13:43,717
都會告訴你說

441
00:13:43,717 --> 00:13:45,297
超級危險

442
00:13:45,297 --> 00:13:45,697
對

443
00:13:45,697 --> 00:13:48,077
可是股票還是跟你在這邊

444
00:13:48,077 --> 00:13:49,097
現在就是變成

445
00:13:49,097 --> 00:13:50,437
只要有一點有消息

446
00:13:50,437 --> 00:13:51,197
大家就會發現

447
00:13:51,197 --> 00:13:52,357
股市就在漲了

448
00:13:52,357 --> 00:13:52,817
好 接下來

449
00:13:52,817 --> 00:13:54,117
如果剛剛鳳鑫姐講的

450
00:13:54,117 --> 00:13:55,417
我比較擔心的就是

451
00:13:55,417 --> 00:13:56,297
跟日本的連動

452
00:13:56,297 --> 00:13:58,197
因為日本這個國家

453
00:13:58,197 --> 00:13:59,437
是沒有辦法承受

454
00:13:59,437 --> 00:14:00,617
這種狀況的

455
00:14:00,617 --> 00:14:01,997
那其實也有很多國家

456
00:14:01,997 --> 00:14:02,677
也沒辦法承受

457
00:14:02,677 --> 00:14:03,137
說老實話

458
00:14:03,137 --> 00:14:03,977
美國自己

459
00:14:03,977 --> 00:14:04,957
有沒有辦法承受

460
00:14:04,957 --> 00:14:05,917
這麼大的通貨膨脹

461
00:14:05,917 --> 00:14:07,417
我也認為不可能

462
00:14:07,417 --> 00:14:09,057
所以整个经济结构

463
00:14:09,057 --> 00:14:10,217
极度不稳定

464
00:14:10,217 --> 00:14:11,997
所以还是保守一点会好一点

465
00:14:11,997 --> 00:14:12,417
是啊

466
00:14:12,417 --> 00:14:13,477
但对川普来说

467
00:14:13,477 --> 00:14:14,877
他说我才不管你日本

468
00:14:14,877 --> 00:14:16,277
我管我有没有赚钱

469
00:14:16,277 --> 00:14:17,617
他每一天的交易是多少

470
00:14:17,617 --> 00:14:18,137
你知道吗

471
00:14:18,137 --> 00:14:19,077
交易日的话

472
00:14:19,077 --> 00:14:21,117
他每一天有80笔的交易

473
00:14:21,117 --> 00:14:22,817
那当然白宫也出来帮他讲话

474
00:14:22,817 --> 00:14:23,257
他说没有

475
00:14:23,257 --> 00:14:25,537
他这都是第三方帮他操作的

476
00:14:25,537 --> 00:14:27,837
他都是用这个电脑量化的模型

477
00:14:27,837 --> 00:14:29,377
白宫强调呢

478
00:14:29,377 --> 00:14:32,217
这个跟他本人家族成员

479
00:14:32,217 --> 00:14:33,397
什么干预

480
00:14:33,397 --> 00:14:35,177
跟他做中统都没有关系

481
00:14:35,177 --> 00:14:36,117
你信吗

482
00:14:36,117 --> 00:14:37,397
我就问你信吗

483
00:14:37,397 --> 00:14:38,957
来我们来看一些小脉络

484
00:14:38,957 --> 00:14:40,497
凤馨姐最后时间交给你

485
00:14:40,497 --> 00:14:41,557
今年前三个月

486
00:14:41,557 --> 00:14:44,917
川普的账户先买了138万美元

487
00:14:44,917 --> 00:14:47,737
美国外送平台叫Doordash的股票

488
00:14:47,737 --> 00:14:48,977
然后到了四月份

489
00:14:48,977 --> 00:14:49,937
他先买嘛

490
00:14:49,937 --> 00:14:50,997
然后还没涨嘛

491
00:14:50,997 --> 00:14:52,297
到了四月突然间

492
00:14:52,297 --> 00:14:54,977
川普叫外送点了麦当劳

493
00:14:54,977 --> 00:14:56,757
然后还公开给人家小费

494
00:14:56,757 --> 00:14:58,157
他还穿着他的制服来

495
00:14:58,157 --> 00:14:59,457
这不是打广告是什么

496
00:14:59,457 --> 00:15:01,777
然后那股票马上就开始涨了

497
00:15:01,777 --> 00:15:03,437
你说这有没有炒股呢

498
00:15:03,437 --> 00:15:05,757
那再来是四月十号的时候

499
00:15:05,757 --> 00:15:07,677
川普在美股交易时间也发文

500
00:15:07,677 --> 00:15:08,897
他这个Planteer

501
00:15:08,897 --> 00:15:10,237
他说他们有正

502
00:15:10,297 --> 00:15:25,297
然後還公開給人家小費。他還穿著他的制服來。這不是打廣告是什麼。然後那股票馬上就開始漲了。你說這有沒有炒股呢?那再來是4月10號的時候川普在美股交易時間也發文啊。他這個Plantier他說他們有那個很出色的作戰能力跟裝備。只要問問我們的敵人就好了。被他點名的直接股票就漲。他也不是第一次啦。他也曾經直接把那股票代號直接寫在他那個X上面。然後還說沒有那個不是代號。那個是什麼硬凹。所以大家都說川普就是

503
00:15:25,297 --> 00:15:26,937
史上最爱炒股

504
00:15:26,937 --> 00:15:27,557
最会炒股

505
00:15:27,557 --> 00:15:28,717
也鼓励所有国会议员

506
00:15:28,717 --> 00:15:30,737
一起来炒股的总统

507
00:15:30,737 --> 00:15:32,257
其实他这样的案例

508
00:15:32,257 --> 00:15:33,457
真的是多不胜数

509
00:15:33,457 --> 00:15:34,677
比如说像英特尔

510
00:15:34,677 --> 00:15:36,697
他这个入股英特尔之前

511
00:15:36,697 --> 00:15:38,537
就政府入股英特尔之前

512
00:15:38,537 --> 00:15:39,457
他先入股

513
00:15:39,457 --> 00:15:41,997
那比如说像是NVIDIA

514
00:15:41,997 --> 00:15:43,197
每一次都是他

515
00:15:43,197 --> 00:15:44,377
比如说他特别讲说

516
00:15:44,377 --> 00:15:45,517
回答是多么的一个

517
00:15:45,517 --> 00:15:46,597
优秀的一个公司

518
00:15:46,597 --> 00:15:48,397
然后跟黄仁星在白宫见面

519
00:15:48,397 --> 00:15:49,557
还打电话给他说

520
00:15:49,557 --> 00:15:51,157
我现在要去中国了

521
00:15:51,157 --> 00:15:52,177
你可不可以过来啊

522
00:15:52,177 --> 00:15:53,537
然后跟着我一起去中国大陆

523
00:15:53,537 --> 00:15:54,337
你太过英

524
00:15:54,337 --> 00:15:54,537
对

525
00:15:54,537 --> 00:15:56,537
這一次開擴音

526
00:15:56,537 --> 00:15:57,257
你開擴音

527
00:15:57,257 --> 00:15:59,757
然後等到事後所公布的

528
00:15:59,757 --> 00:16:01,377
就每一個季度所公布的

529
00:16:01,377 --> 00:16:02,357
這一個資料顯示

530
00:16:02,357 --> 00:16:04,557
結果原來他之前買了NVIDIA的股票

531
00:16:04,557 --> 00:16:06,437
所以那一次的案例

532
00:16:06,437 --> 00:16:07,597
其實非常非常多

533
00:16:07,597 --> 00:16:09,297
那麼這還是只是川普

534
00:16:09,297 --> 00:16:11,817
如果你再加上川普的家族

535
00:16:11,817 --> 00:16:13,317
比如說小川普

536
00:16:13,317 --> 00:16:15,817
就是他的兩個兒子們的這些投資

537
00:16:15,817 --> 00:16:18,157
包括了加密貨幣的相關的投資

538
00:16:18,157 --> 00:16:19,757
穩定幣的相關的投資

539
00:16:19,757 --> 00:16:22,437
其實這一類的案例是多不可勝數的

540
00:16:22,437 --> 00:16:24,317
那我覺得關鍵點在於

541
00:16:24,317 --> 00:16:28,297
就是川普是非常有可能在他卸任之前

542
00:16:28,297 --> 00:16:31,797
然后下一道赦免令特色令

543
00:16:31,797 --> 00:16:35,457
要求在他卸任了之后

544
00:16:35,457 --> 00:16:37,237
不准去调查川普家族

545
00:16:37,237 --> 00:16:39,757
在他任内的时候所有的交易行为

546
00:16:39,757 --> 00:16:41,477
他是会做这件事情的

547
00:16:41,477 --> 00:16:43,617
那第二个部分是

548
00:16:43,617 --> 00:16:45,417
那问题的关键点是

549
00:16:45,417 --> 00:16:47,337
那美国民众对这件事情

550
00:16:47,337 --> 00:16:48,897
为什么都不愤怒

551
00:16:48,897 --> 00:16:52,737
你知道前一阵子这个川普的儿子

552
00:16:52,737 --> 00:16:54,217
他们不是在阿尔巴尼亚

553
00:16:54,217 --> 00:16:56,157
有一个这个饭店投资案

554
00:16:56,157 --> 00:16:58,097
后来引起的是阿尔巴尼亚的

555
00:16:58,097 --> 00:16:59,377
这一个地方的居民

556
00:16:59,377 --> 00:17:00,817
然后抗议啊

557
00:17:00,817 --> 00:17:02,717
时间拉得非常非常的长

558
00:17:02,717 --> 00:17:04,497
但美国媒体几乎没有报道

559
00:17:04,497 --> 00:17:04,877
对

560
00:17:04,877 --> 00:17:06,357
因为对他们来说就觉得

561
00:17:06,357 --> 00:17:08,017
所以我就

562
00:17:08,017 --> 00:17:10,177
我就其实那个时候很多人就提到说

563
00:17:10,177 --> 00:17:11,497
美国真的是沉沦了

564
00:17:11,497 --> 00:17:13,997
他们为什么对于他们的政治人物

565
00:17:13,997 --> 00:17:16,517
所涉及的这些道德利益的

566
00:17:16,517 --> 00:17:17,817
这些回避问题

567
00:17:17,817 --> 00:17:19,717
他们完全都不在乎

568
00:17:19,717 --> 00:17:20,957
美国媒体

569
00:17:20,957 --> 00:17:22,297
你不要讲说

570
00:17:22,297 --> 00:17:24,397
支持川普的媒体不报道

571
00:17:24,397 --> 00:17:25,757
今天纽约时报

572
00:17:25,757 --> 00:17:27,397
或者是CNN

573
00:17:27,397 --> 00:17:28,897
他们也都不报道

574
00:17:28,897 --> 00:17:29,917
所以在台湾

575
00:17:29,917 --> 00:17:31,377
其实知道的很少

576
00:17:31,377 --> 00:17:33,497
因为这里面有牵涉到

577
00:17:33,497 --> 00:17:35,177
利益输送的一些问题

578
00:17:35,177 --> 00:17:38,817
我当时期跟这位学者

579
00:17:38,817 --> 00:17:39,697
我就讲了一句话

580
00:17:39,697 --> 00:17:41,537
我说如果你觉得

581
00:17:41,537 --> 00:17:42,957
川普做这些事情

582
00:17:42,957 --> 00:17:43,877
很不应该

583
00:17:43,877 --> 00:17:44,617
我同意

584
00:17:44,617 --> 00:17:46,657
他是明目张胆

585
00:17:46,657 --> 00:17:47,817
然后赤裸裸的

586
00:17:47,817 --> 00:17:48,837
在做这些事情

587
00:17:48,837 --> 00:17:50,017
可是各位

588
00:17:50,017 --> 00:17:52,157
可能没有注意到的是

589
00:17:52,157 --> 00:17:55,817
美国历任的重要政治人物

590
00:17:55,817 --> 00:17:59,057
美国的卸任的这些总统

591
00:17:59,057 --> 00:18:00,717
他们离开了之后

592
00:18:00,717 --> 00:18:01,777
都会成立基金会

593
00:18:01,777 --> 00:18:04,417
或者会进入重要的私募基金

594
00:18:04,417 --> 00:18:04,917
对不起

595
00:18:04,917 --> 00:18:06,697
都在国际上面

596
00:18:06,697 --> 00:18:07,997
从此lobby的工作

597
00:18:07,997 --> 00:18:09,937
有利益回避吗

598
00:18:09,937 --> 00:18:12,117
只是五十步校百步而已

599
00:18:12,117 --> 00:18:14,457
所以美国不利益回避这件事情

600
00:18:14,457 --> 00:18:16,377
反而是传统

601
00:18:16,377 --> 00:18:18,257
大家好 我是主播李嘉元

602
00:18:18,257 --> 00:18:19,297
生活压力大

603
00:18:19,297 --> 00:18:21,957
失眠且棉视现代人常见的烦恼

604
00:18:21,957 --> 00:18:23,977
太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌

605
00:18:23,977 --> 00:18:26,437
现在进一步推出晚安加强版

606
00:18:26,437 --> 00:18:27,717
添加水染嘎巴

607
00:18:27,717 --> 00:18:30,277
色胺酸 茶胺酸 香蜂草

608
00:18:30,277 --> 00:18:31,857
四大天然草本

609
00:18:31,857 --> 00:18:33,977
选择太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌

610
00:18:33,977 --> 00:18:36,837
做好日常保养 身体轻松无负担

611
00:18:36,837 --> 00:18:38,697
每日克菲尔时刻美好

612
00:18:38,697 --> 00:18:39,877
Good feel feel good

613
00:18:39,877 --> 00:18:42,117
请上快点购为健康下单

614
00:18:42,117 --> 00:18:44,237
输入推荐码 有额外折扣

615
00:18:44,237 --> 00:18:46,677
太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌

616
00:18:46,677 --> 00:18:48,397
基础版 晚安加强版

617
00:18:48,397 --> 00:18:50,277
新包装改版内容不便

618
00:18:50,277 --> 00:18:51,637
抽取更方便

619
00:18:51,637 --> 00:18:53,657
要吃就吃最好的