{
  "text": "經濟啊。所以接下來習近平真的是可以救川普耶。中國可以救川普耶。好,但到時候買的力道多少呢?好,來接下來還有點時間,我要交給鳳馨姐了。因為大家都很關注喔。美國的十年公債,到了百分之五。其實很多人都說,啊這是一個壓力關卡。所以很多人很怕,我撲百分之五感覺美國會崩盤。但其實好像不是這樣看的。我們先來看,勞心宅宅覺得他可以救美國的貝森特。之前很多招都已經失領了。接下來怎麼辦呢?怪東怪西。\n就是最好的解方\n所以他現在怪給全世界\n他說我們這個\n美債殖利率之時候會上升\n我告訴你\n這是一個全球性的問題\n這不是我們美國的問題\n這就跟川普講的一樣\n柴油會漲\n我跟你說\n這絕對跟我們打\n美一戰爭沒有關係\n那都是俄物戰爭的問題\n所以現在美國就是大甩鍋\n所以美國的債務市場\n他說就是全球表現最好的\n所以我們現在財政部\n繼續保持美國公債市場的\n穩健與深度\n但問題是現在大家\n投资人就没信心嘛\n要不然你美国公在十年期\n怎么会突破百分之五呢\n好那再来联准会也预期\n9月17号凌晨两点钟\n他应该会公布就是利率的\n到底有没有要涨\n还是维持元跌\n还是跟川普讲的一样会降呢\n好但是FedWatch\n我们来看市场的预测\n他认为可能会升息一码的几率\n是非常高\n目前来到百分之九十二点五\n那再来我们看到\n十二月还预期也有可能升息\n一月是不是有可能\n这后面可能太久了\n我们就先来讲\n即将在眼前的\n会升息吗\n升多少\n凤金姐你怎么看\n我先讲这个美在的问题\n贝森特呢\n其实他已经不是怪东怪西\n因为他已经找不到理由了\n他也找不到方法\n他其实就是潜移巨穷\n他当初去美日共同干预\n日元的会市\n他现在就很老实的说\n我因为要救美在\n因为我不能够让美国\n不能让日本央行\n日本政府去卖美债\n所以我只好共同来干预日元的会市\n那因为他已经没有办法\n借由日本跟美国共同来干预会市\n他只好施压日本政府\n要求日本央行升息升息再升息\n所以呢\n今天是星期三\n到了后天\n日本央行一定升息\n但是已经不是他升不升息的问题\n而是他会升息的速度跟幅度到底有多大\n因為他在2024年開始\n從這個負的0.1的\n這個基準利率\n開始已經有5度的升息\n2024年升息兩次\n2025年升息兩次\n今年的6月再升息\n他其實本來是維持著\n大概6個月升息一次的\n這樣的一個步調\n可是呢\n從6月到現在9月\n其實短短的3個月的時間\n他就再升息\n所以未來他是不是就可能\n縮短成為每一個季度都要升息\n因为他就算这一次升息\n到了31年来的高点\n可是他也只有升到1.25%\n其实在全世界来讲\n还是非常偏低的\n所以贝森特现在\n唯一的方法就是\n你不要再用这个\n就是干预会式的方式了\n你就用快速升息的方式\n让你的日元可以回升\n所以今天要观察的是日元\n那么日本央行\n到底升息的速度会有多快\n幅度会有多大\n那可是光是控制了\n日本不去卖公债\n就能够解决\n美国公债的问题吗\n就是没办法\n因为现在不是只有日本\n他不买美国公债了\n现在连挪威主权基金\n他们都说\n我们现在买的债券当中\n美国公债市场\n我们要尽可能的少买\n我们要去买别的债券\n他就更加的凸显出来\n就是他的买家越来越少\n可是美国的财政的问题\n越来越严重\n所以买家越来越少\n但是他需要的资金\n还是在增加当中\n那跟他去抢资金的\n又非常多的美国的这些AI巨头\n他们不断的发公私债\n请问一下\n美国的11级公债\n是5%的利率\n好像蛮高的\n可是如果阿发贝发了公私债\n也是10年期的\n是6.5%\n请问一下想要买阿发贝\n还是买美国公债\n对不对\n宏廷就会告诉你答案说\n当然是买阿发贝\n而且还有CB可以买\n可转任公私债\n可转币就可转要更好了\n对对对\n就有其他更好的可以投资\n对对对\n就是说合币就一定要买美帅\n你美国已经\n第一你美国已经不是无风险的公债\n因为你的债务问题越来越严重\n然后第二跟你竞争的\n美国的这一些AI巨头\n可能比你信用更加良好\n而他们的利率更高\n然后同时他们还有很多的\n刚刚这个宏廷讲的可转债\n就是指说\n我如果当你的股票\n涨到一定程度的时候\n我就可以转换成为\n变成你的股票\n所以我在你股票不好的时候\n赚你的利息\n在你股票好的时候\n我去赚你的股票差价\n这个就是可转载\n所以CB\n这个基本上是一个\n比较复杂的一个投资工具\n只有像徐鸿廷这样的人\n他买得动\n我们是基本上\n比较难去操作的\n所以贝森特\n他固然非常熟悉华尔街\n但对不起\n他手上的子弹非常的有限\n所以他潜力拒求\n他只能够不断的用喊话的方式\n但美国到底生不生息\n当然因为明天凌晨两点\n他就公布了\n我认为他生息的几率\n确实非常非常非常高\n90%以上的几率他会生息\n但我也不能排除说\n他最后关头不生息\n但我要跟各位说的是\n不生息就等于利多吗\n答案是错\n不生息是利空\n为什么\n因为不升息\n那意味着\n它再也不是具有独立性格的央行\n那它被政治所操控\n任何被认为没有独立性的央行\n它的货币跟它的债券都会被抛售\n所以它就会导致它的美债殖利率上升得更快\n因为它的债券会被抛售得更严重\n那它如果升息一马\n那重点不是升息一马\n那我觉得升息一马\n这个大概90%以上的几率\n他如果升息一码\n大家还会再去看\n那但是你会不会连续升息\n还是你就升了一码之后就停了\n这才是重点\n就如果你是升一码之后就停了\n这个对金融市场来讲最欢迎\n因为市场已经\n已经是这个已经是\n就已经定价是在你升息一码的状况了\n但已经预期了\n但如果你连续升息\n那市场就影响非常大\n所以你的这张表当中\n其实就重点来了\n10月\n你要看12月\n对\n12月的数字\n12月的数字当中\n那个400到425\n意思是说4%到4.25%\n表示说到年底之前\n49.6%的几率会升息两码\n对\n可是\n可是,我指喔,認為會升息三碼的機率是28.6%。\n換句話說,認為會升息兩碼或三碼的機率,其實已經接近八成了。\n那这件事情的重要性在哪里\n你要知道我们从现在\n最现在的会议到年底\n一共只有三次会议\n如果三次会议会升息两码或三码\n那就意味着几乎每一次都要升\n然后你再来看这张表当中的\n明年的7月28号\n我们看时隔一年之后\n认为会升息一个百分点\n的几率是30%\n如果再加上升息\n5码18%\n升息6码\n5.9%加总起来\n升息一个百分点以上\n加总起来的几率超过50%\n所以现在市场是\n高度压住\n连续升息\n而且日本人看着都快哭了\n说你\n对日本人\n不是要救我吗\n洪廷说的重点来这边\n他就说如果你要那么快速的升息\n那我怎么办\n我要不就是放任我的日元贬值\n可是贝森特又会压迫我\n那我如果要开速升息的话\n我告诉你日本政府受不了\n日本企业也受不了\n所以现在美日都是困境\n这个困境随着油价一直涨上去\n真的是变成无解\n所以贝森特只能说\n这是全球性的问题\n現在平說在這場美疫戰爭的前半段\n好不好\n當時候其實蠻多人\n把錢拿去投美股的\n美股的這個國際資金\n以12個月移動平均價來算\n相當於美國GDP的2.8%\n高於美債2%\n前半就是說今年6月的\n今年6月的一年之內\n就是前半段\n大家對美債還算有信心\n美股應該說\n大家對美股是有信心的\n然後再來\n现在大家就在看了\n华尔街的钱会流到哪里去呢\n被来的欧洲 中东 非洲\n全球固定收益的主管职严\n他说政府公债\n已经不再像过去那样\n被视为无风险的资产\n刚凤馨姐已经讲了\n以前觉得你美国政府\n绝对不会倒\n你低一点也没关系\n你稳稳的嘛\n现在发现\n好像不是这样\n美国十年期公债\n突破5%就是一大警讯\n30年期的殖利率\n今年也有4.83%\n升到5.32%了\n现在很多分析师是认为\n他说这叫做\n美国资产市场的巨变\n反映民间资产负债蓬勃成长\n公共部门却持续恶化\n尤其是很多人都说\n川普都在炒股啊\n川普完成的交易\n比国会全体议员加起来\n都还要更多\n最赚的就是他\n宏廷哥\n我觉得这是\n美国自己\n整个国家制度的问题\n美國其實是相信民主的國家\n所以他的一個態勢很清楚\n就是說你做什麼選擇\n都讓老百姓們來決定對與錯\n那以前大家都認為揭露這件事情\n可以造成什麼政府的這個\n他們講說accountable\n所以我可以檢視\n我可以檢驗\n我可以檢視這個政治人物\n但遇到川普這件事情完全就沒了\n所以你看美國\n不管是他的這個政治獻金的制度\n游說的制度\n他的意思就是說\n不管你做了再怎麼下災難的事情\n你只要有揭露\n就一切讓民眾來決定你的未來\n這就是真的民主的\n這樣的一個大的真諦\n但遇到川普這種人\n他的臉皮厚到一個程度\n然後民眾居然也覺得\n在他任期裡面\n他如果完全不care\n這面子的問題\n他做這些選擇\n所以你可以看到\n其實認真檢視他的交易\n他的交易裡面\n有非常多利益衝突的問題\n對\n那這樣的一個利益衝突的問題\n司法有在介入嗎\n我個人目前暫時打一個問號\n那他下來之後會怎麼處理\n我還是在打一個問號\n那民眾怎麼看這件事情\n你會發現好像川普現在慢慢的\n把政府對民眾的這種\n忍受程度越拉越開\n越拉越開\n所以這個是一個大問題\n那回過頭來講就是說\n好 那大家都覺得\n我們現在已經進入一個\n前所未有的時代了\n那為什麼大家買進美股的規模\n又比買進美債的多\n我認為現在市場\n有一個非常不好的投機的性格\n就是龐氏騙局\n這個泡泡越吹越大\n越吹越大\n吹到\n吹到有點像一部電影的名字\n叫大到不能倒\n那如果是大到不能倒\n那很多人就相信一件事情\n就是我如果在一個\n大到不能倒的結構裡面\n我就不要去care風險的事了\n我就讀更大\n是 对\n所以你看他为什么去买美股\n因为好啊\n因为美债\n因为他相信一件事\n就是美债不会出问题\n哪怕美债的结构\n美债的finance structure\n大家看了以后觉得说\n哇 这个利息\n如果还升息\n美债现在这个结构\n如果还能升到五码\n我跟你讲\n那真的是前所未有的\n就是全世界来看说\n哇 这如果是个公司\n他怎么可能还有股仅\n他的资产负债表是很高的\n那太可怕了\n就是产到一个程度了\n但凤心姐一开始就讲了\n超配合是美国印的\n是 所以這也就是為什麼\n大家認為就是說\n好 那國家不會倒\n如果國家不會倒的話\n美債這個狀況\n要解決美債的狀況\n只能創造無限的\nInflation印鈔票\n那印鈔票的時候\n資產價格就會被拉高\n那很多人就在\n偷這一件事情\n就是說好啦\n如果不可能出現\nPerfect Stone\n那我就買美股吧\n因為美股\n只要印鈔票\n美股水一打開\n因為美股就繼續漲\n然後大家就是一直\n風漲 風漲 風漲 風漲\n然後所有人就當作市場負擔表不重要\n基本面不重要\n那這樣子\n只是這個盛宴到底\n到底會走成什麼樣子\n我認為沒有人知道\n因為08年的金融海嘯\n還有一點脈絡可循\n現在這個脈絡\n配合川普的這樣子的\n川普所主導的經濟幕僚\n然後再加上\n現在的這個態勢\n我真的很難預測\n我必須講我真的很難預測\n但是說老實話\n你稍微有一點經濟概念的人\n所有的基本面\n跟所有經濟的專家\n都會告訴你說\n超級危險\n對\n可是股票還是跟你在這邊\n現在就是變成\n只要有一點有消息\n大家就會發現\n股市就在漲了\n好 接下來\n如果剛剛鳳鑫姐講的\n我比較擔心的就是\n跟日本的連動\n因為日本這個國家\n是沒有辦法承受\n這種狀況的\n那其實也有很多國家\n也沒辦法承受\n說老實話\n美國自己\n有沒有辦法承受\n這麼大的通貨膨脹\n我也認為不可能\n所以整个经济结构\n极度不稳定\n所以还是保守一点会好一点\n是啊\n但对川普来说\n他说我才不管你日本\n我管我有没有赚钱\n他每一天的交易是多少\n你知道吗\n交易日的话\n他每一天有80笔的交易\n那当然白宫也出来帮他讲话\n他说没有\n他这都是第三方帮他操作的\n他都是用这个电脑量化的模型\n白宫强调呢\n这个跟他本人家族成员\n什么干预\n跟他做中统都没有关系\n你信吗\n我就问你信吗\n来我们来看一些小脉络\n凤馨姐最后时间交给你\n今年前三个月\n川普的账户先买了138万美元\n美国外送平台叫Doordash的股票\n然后到了四月份\n他先买嘛\n然后还没涨嘛\n到了四月突然间\n川普叫外送点了麦当劳\n然后还公开给人家小费\n他还穿着他的制服来\n这不是打广告是什么\n然后那股票马上就开始涨了\n你说这有没有炒股呢\n那再来是四月十号的时候\n川普在美股交易时间也发文\n他这个Planteer\n他说他们有正\n然後還公開給人家小費。他還穿著他的制服來。這不是打廣告是什麼。然後那股票馬上就開始漲了。你說這有沒有炒股呢?那再來是4月10號的時候川普在美股交易時間也發文啊。他這個Plantier他說他們有那個很出色的作戰能力跟裝備。只要問問我們的敵人就好了。被他點名的直接股票就漲。他也不是第一次啦。他也曾經直接把那股票代號直接寫在他那個X上面。然後還說沒有那個不是代號。那個是什麼硬凹。所以大家都說川普就是\n史上最爱炒股\n最会炒股\n也鼓励所有国会议员\n一起来炒股的总统\n其实他这样的案例\n真的是多不胜数\n比如说像英特尔\n他这个入股英特尔之前\n就政府入股英特尔之前\n他先入股\n那比如说像是NVIDIA\n每一次都是他\n比如说他特别讲说\n回答是多么的一个\n优秀的一个公司\n然后跟黄仁星在白宫见面\n还打电话给他说\n我现在要去中国了\n你可不可以过来啊\n然后跟着我一起去中国大陆\n你太过英\n对\n這一次開擴音\n你開擴音\n然後等到事後所公布的\n就每一個季度所公布的\n這一個資料顯示\n結果原來他之前買了NVIDIA的股票\n所以那一次的案例\n其實非常非常多\n那麼這還是只是川普\n如果你再加上川普的家族\n比如說小川普\n就是他的兩個兒子們的這些投資\n包括了加密貨幣的相關的投資\n穩定幣的相關的投資\n其實這一類的案例是多不可勝數的\n那我覺得關鍵點在於\n就是川普是非常有可能在他卸任之前\n然后下一道赦免令特色令\n要求在他卸任了之后\n不准去调查川普家族\n在他任内的时候所有的交易行为\n他是会做这件事情的\n那第二个部分是\n那问题的关键点是\n那美国民众对这件事情\n为什么都不愤怒\n你知道前一阵子这个川普的儿子\n他们不是在阿尔巴尼亚\n有一个这个饭店投资案\n后来引起的是阿尔巴尼亚的\n这一个地方的居民\n然后抗议啊\n时间拉得非常非常的长\n但美国媒体几乎没有报道\n对\n因为对他们来说就觉得\n所以我就\n我就其实那个时候很多人就提到说\n美国真的是沉沦了\n他们为什么对于他们的政治人物\n所涉及的这些道德利益的\n这些回避问题\n他们完全都不在乎\n美国媒体\n你不要讲说\n支持川普的媒体不报道\n今天纽约时报\n或者是CNN\n他们也都不报道\n所以在台湾\n其实知道的很少\n因为这里面有牵涉到\n利益输送的一些问题\n我当时期跟这位学者\n我就讲了一句话\n我说如果你觉得\n川普做这些事情\n很不应该\n我同意\n他是明目张胆\n然后赤裸裸的\n在做这些事情\n可是各位\n可能没有注意到的是\n美国历任的重要政治人物\n美国的卸任的这些总统\n他们离开了之后\n都会成立基金会\n或者会进入重要的私募基金\n对不起\n都在国际上面\n从此lobby的工作\n有利益回避吗\n只是五十步校百步而已\n所以美国不利益回避这件事情\n反而是传统\n大家好 我是主播李嘉元\n生活压力大\n失眠且棉视现代人常见的烦恼\n太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌\n现在进一步推出晚安加强版\n添加水染嘎巴\n色胺酸 茶胺酸 香蜂草\n四大天然草本\n选择太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌\n做好日常保养 身体轻松无负担\n每日克菲尔时刻美好\nGood feel feel good\n请上快点购为健康下单\n输入推荐码 有额外折扣\n太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌\n基础版 晚安加强版\n新包装改版内容不便\n抽取更方便\n要吃就吃最好的",
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      "text": "經濟啊。所以接下來習近平真的是可以救川普耶。中國可以救川普耶。好,但到時候買的力道多少呢?好,來接下來還有點時間,我要交給鳳馨姐了。因為大家都很關注喔。美國的十年公債,到了百分之五。其實很多人都說,啊這是一個壓力關卡。所以很多人很怕,我撲百分之五感覺美國會崩盤。但其實好像不是這樣看的。我們先來看,勞心宅宅覺得他可以救美國的貝森特。之前很多招都已經失領了。接下來怎麼辦呢?怪東怪西。",
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      "start": 30.0,
      "end": 31.3,
      "text": "就是最好的解方",
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      "end": 32.74,
      "text": "所以他現在怪給全世界",
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      "start": 32.74,
      "end": 34.18,
      "text": "他說我們這個",
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      "start": 34.18,
      "end": 35.7,
      "text": "美債殖利率之時候會上升",
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      "start": 35.7,
      "end": 36.14,
      "text": "我告訴你",
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      "end": 37.6,
      "text": "這是一個全球性的問題",
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      "end": 39.0,
      "text": "這不是我們美國的問題",
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      "end": 40.62,
      "text": "這就跟川普講的一樣",
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      "start": 40.62,
      "end": 41.78,
      "text": "柴油會漲",
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      "start": 41.78,
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      "text": "我跟你說",
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      "start": 42.32,
      "end": 43.38,
      "text": "這絕對跟我們打",
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      "start": 43.38,
      "end": 44.42,
      "text": "美一戰爭沒有關係",
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      "text": "那都是俄物戰爭的問題",
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      "end": 48.08,
      "text": "所以現在美國就是大甩鍋",
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      "start": 48.08,
      "end": 50.62,
      "text": "所以美國的債務市場",
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      "start": 50.62,
      "end": 52.82,
      "text": "他說就是全球表現最好的",
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      "start": 52.82,
      "end": 54.26,
      "text": "所以我們現在財政部",
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    {
      "start": 54.26,
      "end": 56.3,
      "text": "繼續保持美國公債市場的",
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    {
      "start": 56.3,
      "end": 57.76,
      "text": "穩健與深度",
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    {
      "start": 57.76,
      "end": 59.3,
      "text": "但問題是現在大家",
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      "start": 59.3,
      "end": 60.84,
      "text": "投资人就没信心嘛",
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      "start": 60.84,
      "end": 62.56,
      "text": "要不然你美国公在十年期",
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    {
      "start": 62.56,
      "end": 64.44,
      "text": "怎么会突破百分之五呢",
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    {
      "start": 64.44,
      "end": 66.74,
      "text": "好那再来联准会也预期",
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    {
      "start": 66.74,
      "end": 69.08,
      "text": "9月17号凌晨两点钟",
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    {
      "start": 69.08,
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      "text": "他应该会公布就是利率的",
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      "text": "到底有没有要涨",
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      "start": 72.6,
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      "text": "还是维持元跌",
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    {
      "start": 73.48,
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      "text": "还是跟川普讲的一样会降呢",
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      "start": 75.66,
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      "text": "好但是FedWatch",
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    {
      "start": 76.84,
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      "text": "我们来看市场的预测",
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      "start": 78.38,
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      "text": "他认为可能会升息一码的几率",
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      "start": 81.1,
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      "text": "是非常高",
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    {
      "start": 81.88,
      "end": 84.84,
      "text": "目前来到百分之九十二点五",
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    {
      "start": 84.84,
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      "text": "那再来我们看到",
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      "start": 86.82,
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      "text": "十二月还预期也有可能升息",
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    {
      "start": 89.06,
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      "text": "一月是不是有可能",
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    {
      "start": 90.44,
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      "text": "这后面可能太久了",
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      "start": 92.06,
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      "text": "我们就先来讲",
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    {
      "start": 93.08,
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      "text": "即将在眼前的",
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      "start": 94.66,
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      "text": "会升息吗",
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      "start": 95.82,
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      "text": "升多少",
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      "start": 96.44,
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      "text": "凤金姐你怎么看",
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      "text": "我先讲这个美在的问题",
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      "start": 100.34,
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      "text": "贝森特呢",
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      "text": "其实他已经不是怪东怪西",
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      "start": 103.82,
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      "text": "因为他已经找不到理由了",
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      "start": 105.34,
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      "text": "他也找不到方法",
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      "start": 106.64,
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      "text": "他其实就是潜移巨穷",
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      "text": "他当初去美日共同干预",
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      "text": "日元的会市",
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      "text": "他现在就很老实的说",
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      "text": "我因为要救美在",
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      "start": 115.32,
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      "text": "因为我不能够让美国",
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      "start": 116.98,
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      "text": "不能让日本央行",
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      "text": "日本政府去卖美债",
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      "text": "那因为他已经没有办法",
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      "text": "借由日本跟美国共同来干预会市",
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      "text": "他只好施压日本政府",
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      "text": "要求日本央行升息升息再升息",
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    {
      "start": 135.98,
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      "text": "今天是星期三",
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      "start": 137.64,
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      "text": "到了后天",
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      "text": "但是已经不是他升不升息的问题",
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      "start": 143.92,
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    {
      "start": 147.94,
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      "text": "因為他在2024年開始",
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    {
      "start": 151.38,
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      "text": "從這個負的0.1的",
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    {
      "start": 154.12,
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      "text": "這個基準利率",
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    {
      "start": 155.04,
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      "text": "開始已經有5度的升息",
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      "text": "2024年升息兩次",
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      "start": 159.24,
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      "start": 160.7,
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      "text": "今年的6月再升息",
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      "start": 162.32,
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      "text": "他其實本來是維持著",
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      "text": "大概6個月升息一次的",
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      "start": 166.08,
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      "text": "這樣的一個步調",
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      "text": "從6月到現在9月",
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    {
      "start": 169.18,
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      "text": "其實短短的3個月的時間",
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      "start": 171.62,
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      "text": "他就再升息",
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      "text": "所以未來他是不是就可能",
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      "start": 175.12,
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      "text": "縮短成為每一個季度都要升息",
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      "text": "因为他就算这一次升息",
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      "start": 179.32,
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      "text": "到了31年来的高点",
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    {
      "start": 181.24,
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      "text": "可是他也只有升到1.25%",
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      "start": 183.42,
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      "text": "其实在全世界来讲",
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      "start": 184.44,
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      "text": "还是非常偏低的",
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      "text": "唯一的方法就是",
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      "start": 188.08,
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      "text": "你不要再用这个",
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      "start": 189.98,
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      "text": "就是干预会式的方式了",
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      "text": "美国公债的问题吗",
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      "start": 307.98,
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      "text": "比较复杂的一个投资工具",
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      "start": 317.92,
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      "text": "但美国到底生不生息",
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      "start": 339.6,
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      "text": "但我也不能排除说",
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      "start": 342.88,
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      "text": "但我要跟各位说的是",
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      "text": "不生息就等于利多吗",
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      "text": "它再也不是具有独立性格的央行",
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      "text": "它的货币跟它的债券都会被抛售",
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      "text": "大家还会再去看",
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      "text": "这个对金融市场来讲最欢迎",
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      "text": "所以你的这张表当中",
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      "text": "那个400到425",
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      "text": "意思是说4%到4.25%",
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      "text": "表示说到年底之前",
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      "text": "49.6%的几率会升息两码",
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      "text": "可是,我指喔,認為會升息三碼的機率是28.6%。",
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      "text": "換句話說,認為會升息兩碼或三碼的機率,其實已經接近八成了。",
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      "text": "那这件事情的重要性在哪里",
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      "text": "你要知道我们从现在",
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      "text": "最现在的会议到年底",
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      "text": "一共只有三次会议",
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      "text": "如果三次会议会升息两码或三码",
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      "text": "那就意味着几乎每一次都要升",
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      "text": "然后你再来看这张表当中的",
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      "text": "明年的7月28号",
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      "text": "认为会升息一个百分点",
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      "text": "的几率是30%",
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      "text": "5码18%",
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      "text": "升息6码",
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      "text": "5.9%加总起来",
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      "text": "升息一个百分点以上",
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      "text": "加总起来的几率超过50%",
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      "text": "所以现在市场是",
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    {
      "start": 488.217,
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      "text": "高度压住",
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      "text": "连续升息",
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      "text": "而且日本人看着都快哭了",
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      "start": 494.357,
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      "text": "说你",
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      "text": "对日本人",
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      "start": 496.577,
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      "text": "不是要救我吗",
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      "text": "洪廷说的重点来这边",
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      "text": "他就说如果你要那么快速的升息",
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      "text": "那我怎么办",
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      "text": "我要不就是放任我的日元贬值",
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      "text": "那我如果要开速升息的话",
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      "text": "我告诉你日本政府受不了",
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      "text": "所以现在美日都是困境",
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      "text": "这个困境随着油价一直涨上去",
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      "text": "真的是变成无解",
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      "text": "所以贝森特只能说",
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      "text": "这是全球性的问题",
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    {
      "start": 528.077,
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      "text": "現在平說在這場美疫戰爭的前半段",
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      "text": "把錢拿去投美股的",
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      "text": "美股的這個國際資金",
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      "text": "以12個月移動平均價來算",
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      "text": "相當於美國GDP的2.8%",
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      "text": "高於美債2%",
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      "text": "前半就是說今年6月的",
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      "text": "大家對美債還算有信心",
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      "text": "然後再來",
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      "text": "现在大家就在看了",
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    {
      "start": 558.597,
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      "text": "华尔街的钱会流到哪里去呢",
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    {
      "start": 560.497,
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      "text": "被来的欧洲 中东 非洲",
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    {
      "start": 562.677,
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      "text": "全球固定收益的主管职严",
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      "text": "他说政府公债",
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    {
      "start": 566.477,
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      "text": "已经不再像过去那样",
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    {
      "start": 567.697,
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      "text": "被视为无风险的资产",
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      "start": 569.317,
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      "text": "刚凤馨姐已经讲了",
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      "text": "以前觉得你美国政府",
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      "start": 572.117,
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      "text": "绝对不会倒",
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      "text": "你低一点也没关系",
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      "text": "你稳稳的嘛",
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      "text": "所以這個是一個大問題",
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      "text": "那回過頭來講就是說",
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      "text": "好 那大家都覺得",
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      "text": "我們現在已經進入一個",
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      "text": "前所未有的時代了",
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      "text": "那為什麼大家買進美股的規模",
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      "text": "又比買進美債的多",
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      "text": "我認為現在市場",
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      "text": "有一個非常不好的投機的性格",
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      "text": "就是龐氏騙局",
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      "text": "這個泡泡越吹越大",
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      "text": "越吹越大",
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      "text": "吹到",
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      "text": "吹到有點像一部電影的名字",
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      "text": "我就不要去care風險的事了",
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      "text": "我就讀更大",
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      "text": "是 对",
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      "text": "所以你看他为什么去买美股",
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      "text": "因为他相信一件事",
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      "text": "就是美债不会出问题",
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      "text": "哪怕美债的结构",
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      "text": "美债的finance structure",
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      "text": "大家看了以后觉得说",
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      "start": 740.997,
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      "text": "哇 这个利息",
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      "start": 742.037,
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      "text": "如果还升息",
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      "text": "美债现在这个结构",
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      "start": 744.257,
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      "text": "如果还能升到五码",
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      "start": 745.537,
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      "text": "我跟你讲",
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      "text": "那真的是前所未有的",
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      "text": "哇 这如果是个公司",
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      "text": "他怎么可能还有股仅",
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      "text": "他的资产负债表是很高的",
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      "text": "那太可怕了",
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      "text": "就是产到一个程度了",
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      "start": 755.717,
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      "text": "但凤心姐一开始就讲了",
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      "text": "超配合是美国印的",
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      "text": "是 所以這也就是為什麼",
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      "text": "大家認為就是說",
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      "start": 761.697,
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      "text": "好 那國家不會倒",
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      "text": "如果國家不會倒的話",
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      "text": "美債這個狀況",
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    {
      "start": 767.897,
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      "start": 769.197,
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      "text": "只能創造無限的",
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    {
      "start": 770.597,
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      "text": "Inflation印鈔票",
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      "start": 773.277,
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      "text": "資產價格就會被拉高",
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      "text": "那很多人就在",
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      "start": 776.977,
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      "text": "偷這一件事情",
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      "text": "就是說好啦",
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      "start": 778.857,
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      "text": "如果不可能出現",
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    {
      "start": 780.397,
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      "text": "Perfect Stone",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 780.917,
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      "text": "那我就買美股吧",
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      "text": "因為美股",
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      "start": 782.917,
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      "text": "只要印鈔票",
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      "start": 783.757,
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      "text": "美股水一打開",
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      "text": "因為美股就繼續漲",
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      "text": "然後大家就是一直",
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      "start": 786.697,
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      "text": "風漲 風漲 風漲 風漲",
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      "start": 788.417,
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      "text": "然後所有人就當作市場負擔表不重要",
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      "start": 790.737,
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      "text": "基本面不重要",
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      "start": 791.997,
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      "text": "那這樣子",
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      "start": 793.317,
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      "text": "只是這個盛宴到底",
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    {
      "start": 794.957,
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      "text": "到底會走成什麼樣子",
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      "start": 797.917,
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      "text": "我認為沒有人知道",
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      "start": 799.557,
      "end": 801.637,
      "text": "因為08年的金融海嘯",
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    {
      "start": 801.637,
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      "text": "還有一點脈絡可循",
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    {
      "start": 803.557,
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      "text": "現在這個脈絡",
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    {
      "start": 804.697,
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      "text": "配合川普的這樣子的",
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    {
      "start": 806.197,
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      "text": "川普所主導的經濟幕僚",
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      "start": 808.457,
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      "text": "然後再加上",
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    {
      "start": 809.717,
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      "text": "現在的這個態勢",
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    {
      "start": 811.417,
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      "text": "我真的很難預測",
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      "start": 815.497,
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      "text": "我必須講我真的很難預測",
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      "start": 816.857,
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      "text": "但是說老實話",
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      "start": 817.777,
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      "text": "你稍微有一點經濟概念的人",
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      "start": 819.777,
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      "text": "所有的基本面",
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      "start": 821.357,
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      "text": "跟所有經濟的專家",
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      "start": 822.977,
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      "text": "都會告訴你說",
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    {
      "start": 823.717,
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      "text": "超級危險",
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      "start": 825.297,
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      "text": "對",
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    {
      "start": 825.697,
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      "text": "可是股票還是跟你在這邊",
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    {
      "start": 828.077,
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      "text": "現在就是變成",
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    {
      "start": 829.097,
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      "text": "只要有一點有消息",
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    {
      "start": 830.437,
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      "text": "大家就會發現",
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    {
      "start": 831.197,
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      "text": "股市就在漲了",
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    {
      "start": 832.357,
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      "text": "好 接下來",
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    {
      "start": 832.817,
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      "text": "如果剛剛鳳鑫姐講的",
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    {
      "start": 834.117,
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      "text": "我比較擔心的就是",
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    {
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      "text": "跟日本的連動",
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    {
      "start": 836.297,
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      "text": "因為日本這個國家",
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    {
      "start": 838.197,
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      "text": "是沒有辦法承受",
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    {
      "start": 839.437,
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      "text": "這種狀況的",
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    {
      "start": 840.617,
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      "text": "那其實也有很多國家",
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    {
      "start": 841.997,
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      "text": "也沒辦法承受",
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    {
      "start": 842.677,
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      "text": "說老實話",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16353052948157826,
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    {
      "start": 843.137,
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      "text": "美國自己",
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    {
      "start": 843.977,
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      "text": "有沒有辦法承受",
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    {
      "start": 844.957,
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      "text": "這麼大的通貨膨脹",
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      "start": 845.917,
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      "text": "我也認為不可能",
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    {
      "start": 847.417,
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      "text": "所以整个经济结构",
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    {
      "start": 849.057,
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      "text": "极度不稳定",
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    {
      "start": 850.217,
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      "text": "所以还是保守一点会好一点",
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      "start": 851.997,
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      "text": "是啊",
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    {
      "start": 852.417,
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      "text": "但对川普来说",
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    {
      "start": 853.477,
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      "text": "他说我才不管你日本",
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    {
      "start": 854.877,
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      "text": "我管我有没有赚钱",
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    {
      "start": 856.277,
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      "text": "他每一天的交易是多少",
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    {
      "start": 857.617,
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      "text": "你知道吗",
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    {
      "start": 858.137,
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      "text": "交易日的话",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 859.077,
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      "text": "他每一天有80笔的交易",
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    {
      "start": 861.117,
      "end": 862.817,
      "text": "那当然白宫也出来帮他讲话",
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    {
      "start": 862.817,
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      "text": "他说没有",
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    {
      "start": 863.257,
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      "text": "他这都是第三方帮他操作的",
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    {
      "start": 865.537,
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      "text": "他都是用这个电脑量化的模型",
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      "start": 867.837,
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      "text": "白宫强调呢",
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    {
      "start": 869.377,
      "end": 872.217,
      "text": "这个跟他本人家族成员",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.9750928323403194e-11,
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    {
      "start": 872.217,
      "end": 873.397,
      "text": "什么干预",
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    {
      "start": 873.397,
      "end": 875.177,
      "text": "跟他做中统都没有关系",
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    {
      "start": 875.177,
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      "text": "你信吗",
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      "start": 876.117,
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      "text": "我就问你信吗",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4290030211480362
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    {
      "start": 877.397,
      "end": 878.957,
      "text": "来我们来看一些小脉络",
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    {
      "start": 878.957,
      "end": 880.497,
      "text": "凤馨姐最后时间交给你",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.965731223629863e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.327217125382263
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    {
      "start": 880.497,
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      "text": "今年前三个月",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11856834623548719,
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      "text": "川普的账户先买了138万美元",
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    {
      "start": 884.917,
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      "text": "美国外送平台叫Doordash的股票",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11856834623548719,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.965731223629863e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.327217125382263
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    {
      "start": 887.737,
      "end": 888.977,
      "text": "然后到了四月份",
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    {
      "start": 888.977,
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      "text": "他先买嘛",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 889.937,
      "end": 890.997,
      "text": "然后还没涨嘛",
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    {
      "start": 890.997,
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      "text": "到了四月突然间",
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      "start": 892.297,
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      "text": "川普叫外送点了麦当劳",
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    {
      "start": 894.977,
      "end": 896.757,
      "text": "然后还公开给人家小费",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.965731223629863e-11,
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      "start": 896.757,
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      "text": "他还穿着他的制服来",
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    {
      "start": 898.157,
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      "text": "这不是打广告是什么",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.965731223629863e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.327217125382263
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    {
      "start": 899.457,
      "end": 901.777,
      "text": "然后那股票马上就开始涨了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11856834623548719,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.965731223629863e-11,
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    {
      "start": 901.777,
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      "text": "你说这有没有炒股呢",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.965731223629863e-11,
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    {
      "start": 903.437,
      "end": 905.757,
      "text": "那再来是四月十号的时候",
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      "text": "川普在美股交易时间也发文",
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    {
      "start": 907.677,
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      "text": "他这个Planteer",
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      "text": "他说他们有正",
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      "start": 910.297,
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      "text": "然後還公開給人家小費。他還穿著他的制服來。這不是打廣告是什麼。然後那股票馬上就開始漲了。你說這有沒有炒股呢?那再來是4月10號的時候川普在美股交易時間也發文啊。他這個Plantier他說他們有那個很出色的作戰能力跟裝備。只要問問我們的敵人就好了。被他點名的直接股票就漲。他也不是第一次啦。他也曾經直接把那股票代號直接寫在他那個X上面。然後還說沒有那個不是代號。那個是什麼硬凹。所以大家都說川普就是",
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      "text": "史上最爱炒股",
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      "text": "最会炒股",
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    {
      "start": 927.557,
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      "text": "也鼓励所有国会议员",
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      "text": "一起来炒股的总统",
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      "text": "其实他这样的案例",
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    {
      "start": 932.257,
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      "text": "真的是多不胜数",
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      "text": "比如说像英特尔",
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      "text": "他这个入股英特尔之前",
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      "text": "就政府入股英特尔之前",
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      "start": 938.537,
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      "text": "他先入股",
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      "text": "那比如说像是NVIDIA",
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      "text": "每一次都是他",
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      "text": "比如说他特别讲说",
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      "start": 944.377,
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      "text": "回答是多么的一个",
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    {
      "start": 945.517,
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      "text": "优秀的一个公司",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12103321919074425,
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    {
      "start": 946.597,
      "end": 948.397,
      "text": "然后跟黄仁星在白宫见面",
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      "start": 948.397,
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      "text": "还打电话给他说",
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      "start": 949.557,
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      "text": "我现在要去中国了",
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    {
      "start": 951.157,
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      "text": "你可不可以过来啊",
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      "start": 952.177,
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      "text": "然后跟着我一起去中国大陆",
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      "start": 953.537,
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      "text": "你太过英",
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      "start": 954.337,
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      "text": "对",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 954.537,
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      "text": "這一次開擴音",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "text": "你開擴音",
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    {
      "start": 957.257,
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      "text": "然後等到事後所公布的",
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    {
      "start": 959.757,
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      "text": "就每一個季度所公布的",
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    {
      "start": 961.377,
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      "text": "這一個資料顯示",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 962.357,
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      "text": "結果原來他之前買了NVIDIA的股票",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.842664992286359e-11,
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    {
      "start": 964.557,
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      "text": "所以那一次的案例",
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    {
      "start": 966.437,
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      "text": "其實非常非常多",
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    {
      "start": 967.597,
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      "text": "那麼這還是只是川普",
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    {
      "start": 969.297,
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      "text": "如果你再加上川普的家族",
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      "start": 971.817,
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      "text": "比如說小川普",
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    {
      "start": 973.317,
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      "text": "就是他的兩個兒子們的這些投資",
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    {
      "start": 975.817,
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      "text": "包括了加密貨幣的相關的投資",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.842664992286359e-11,
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    {
      "start": 978.157,
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      "text": "穩定幣的相關的投資",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.842664992286359e-11,
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    {
      "start": 979.757,
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      "text": "其實這一類的案例是多不可勝數的",
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    {
      "start": 982.437,
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      "text": "那我覺得關鍵點在於",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.842664992286359e-11,
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    {
      "start": 984.317,
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      "text": "就是川普是非常有可能在他卸任之前",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.791310329235518e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3626373626373627
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    {
      "start": 988.297,
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      "text": "然后下一道赦免令特色令",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10026868184407552,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.791310329235518e-11,
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    {
      "start": 991.797,
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      "text": "要求在他卸任了之后",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3626373626373627
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    {
      "start": 995.457,
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      "text": "不准去调查川普家族",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10026868184407552,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.791310329235518e-11,
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    {
      "start": 997.237,
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      "text": "在他任内的时候所有的交易行为",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.791310329235518e-11,
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    {
      "start": 999.757,
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      "text": "他是会做这件事情的",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1001.477,
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      "text": "那第二个部分是",
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      "text": "那美国民众对这件事情",
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      "text": "你知道前一阵子这个川普的儿子",
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      "text": "但美国媒体几乎没有报道",
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      "text": "所涉及的这些道德利益的",
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      "text": "他们完全都不在乎",
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      "text": "你不要讲说",
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      "text": "今天纽约时报",
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      "text": "或者是CNN",
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      "text": "所以在台湾",
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      "text": "其实知道的很少",
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      "text": "利益输送的一些问题",
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      "text": "我当时期跟这位学者",
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      "text": "我就讲了一句话",
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      "text": "川普做这些事情",
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      "text": "很不应该",
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      "text": "他是明目张胆",
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      "text": "然后赤裸裸的",
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      "text": "在做这些事情",
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      "text": "可能没有注意到的是",
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      "text": "美国历任的重要政治人物",
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      "text": "他们离开了之后",
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      "text": "都会成立基金会",
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      "text": "或者会进入重要的私募基金",
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      "text": "对不起",
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      "text": "都在国际上面",
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      "text": "从此lobby的工作",
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      "text": "有利益回避吗",
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      "start": 1089.937,
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      "text": "只是五十步校百步而已",
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      "text": "反而是传统",
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      "text": "大家好 我是主播李嘉元",
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      "start": 1098.257,
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      "text": "生活压力大",
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    {
      "start": 1099.297,
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      "text": "失眠且棉视现代人常见的烦恼",
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    {
      "start": 1101.957,
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      "text": "太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌",
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    {
      "start": 1103.977,
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      "text": "现在进一步推出晚安加强版",
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    {
      "start": 1106.437,
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      "text": "添加水染嘎巴",
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    {
      "start": 1107.717,
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      "text": "色胺酸 茶胺酸 香蜂草",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.9043126450735137e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1110.277,
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      "text": "四大天然草本",
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      "text": "选择太阳星全校克菲尔医生菌",
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      "start": 1113.977,
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      "text": "做好日常保养 身体轻松无负担",
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      "text": "每日克菲尔时刻美好",
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    "global_repeat_text": "經濟啊。所以接下來習近平真的是可以救川普耶。中國可以救川普耶。好,但到時候買的力道多少呢?好,來接下來還有點時間,我要交給鳳馨姐了。因為大家都很關注喔。美國的十年公債,到了百分之五。其實很多人都說,啊這是一個壓力關卡。所以很多人很怕,我撲百分之五感覺美國會崩盤。但其實好像不是這樣看的。我們先來看,勞心宅宅覺得他可以救美國的貝森特。之前很多招都已經失領了。接下來怎麼辦呢?怪東怪西。",
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