{
  "text": "貝森特其實他已經不是怪東怪西\n因為他已經找不到理由了\n他也找不到方法\n他其實就是潛移祭求\n他當初去美日共同干預日圓的會試\n他現在就很老實的說\n我因為要救美債\n因為我不能夠讓美國\n不能讓日本央行\n日本政府去賣美債\n所以我只好共同來干預日圓的會試\n那因為他已經沒有辦法\n藉由日本跟美國共同來干預會試\n他只好施壓日本政府\n要求日本央行升息 升息再升息\n所以今天是星期三\n到了後天 日本央行一定升息\n但是已經不是他升不升息的問題\n而是他會升息的速度跟幅度\n到底有多大\n因為他在二零二四年開始\n從這個負的零點一的這個基準利率\n開始已經有五度的升息\n二零二四年升息兩次\n二零二五年升息兩次\n今年的六月再升息\n他其實本來是維持著\n大概六個月升息一次的\n這樣的一個步調\n可是從六月到現在九月\n其實短短的三個月的時間\n他就再升息\n所以未來他是不是就可能縮短成為\n每一個季度都要升息\n因為他就算這一次升息\n到了三十一年來的高點\n可是他也只有升到百分之一點二五\n其實在全世界來講\n還是非常偏低的\n所以貝斯森特\n現在唯一的方法就是\n你不要再用這個\n就是干預會式的方式了\n你就用快速升息的方式\n讓你的日圓可以回升\n所以今天要觀察的是日圓\n那麼日本央行到底升息的速度\n會有多快\n幅度會有多大\n那可是光是控制了日本\n不去賣公債\n就能夠解決美國公債的問題嗎\n就是沒辦法\n因為現在不是只有日本\n他不買美國公債了\n現在連挪威主權基金\n他们都说我们现在买的债券当中\n美国公债市场我们要尽可能的少买\n我们要去买别的债券\n他就更加的凸显出来\n就是他的买家越来越少\n可是美国的财政的问题越来越严重\n所以买家越来越少\n但是他需要的资金还是在增加当中\n那跟他去抢资金的\n又非常多的美国的这些AI巨头\n他们不断的发公私债\n请问一下美国的十一级公债\n是5%的利率\n好像蠻高的\n可是如果阿發貝\n發了公私債\n也是十年期的\n是6.5%\n請問想想要買阿發貝\n還是買公債\n對不對\n宏廷就會告訴你答案說\n當然是買阿發貝\n而且還有CB可以買\n可轉任公私債\n可轉任公私債\n就有其他更好的可以投資\n對\n其他的可能\n就是你美國已經\n第一你美國已經不是\n無風險的公債\n因為你的債務問題越來越嚴重\n然後第二跟你競爭的\n美國的這一些AI巨頭\n可能比你信用更加良好\n而他們的利率更高\n然後同時他們還有很多的\n剛剛這個宏廷講的可轉載\n就是指說\n我如果當你的股票\n漲到一定程度的時候\n我就可以轉換成為\n變成你的股票\n所以我在你股票不好的時候\n賺你的利息\n在你股票好的時候\n我去賺你的股票差價\n這個就是可轉載\n所以CB\n这个基本上是一个\n比较复杂的一个投资工具\n只有像徐鸿廷这样的人\n他摆得懂\n我们是基本上比较难去操作的\n所以贝森特\n他固然非常熟悉华尔街\n但对不起\n他手上的子弹非常的有限\n所以他潜力巨球\n他只能够不断地用喊话的方式\n但美国到底生不生息\n当然\n因为明天凌晨两点\n他就公布了\n我认为他生息的几率\n确实非常非常非常高\n90%以上的几率\n他会升息\n但我也不能排除说\n他最后关头不升息\n但我要跟各位说的是\n不升息就等于利多吗\n答案是错\n不升息是利空\n为什么\n因为不升息\n那意味着\n他再也不是具有独立性格的央行\n那他被政治所操控\n任何被认为没有独立性的央行\n他的貨幣跟他的債券都會被拋售\n所以他就會導致他的美債值利率上升的更快\n因為他的債券會被拋售的更嚴重\n那他如果升息一碼\n那重點不是升息一碼\n那我覺得升息一碼\n這個大概90%以上的機率\n他如果升息一碼\n大家還會再去看\n那但是你會不會連續升息\n還是你就升了一碼之後就停了\n這才是重點\n就如果你是升一碼之后就停了\n这个对金融市场来讲最欢迎\n因为市场已经\n已经是这个已经是\n就已经定价是在你升息一碼的状况了\n但如果你连续升息\n那市场就影响非常大\n所以你的这张表当中\n其实就重点来了\n10月\n你要看12月\n12月的数字\n12月的数字当中\n那个400到425\n意思是說4%到4.25%\n表示說到年底之前\n49.6%的機率會升息兩碼\n可是不止\n認為會升息三碼的機率\n是28.6%\n換句話說\n認為會升息兩碼或三碼的機率\n其實已經接近八成了\n對\n那這件事情的重要性在哪裡\n你要知道我們從現在\n最现在的会议到年底\n一共只有三次会议\n如果三次会议会升息两码或三码\n那就意味着几乎每一次都要升\n然后你再来看这张表当中的\n明年的7月28号\n这里\n我们看时隔一年之后\n认为会升息一个百分点的几率是30%\n如果再加上升息五码18%\n升息6% 5.9%\n加總起來升息一個百分點以上\n加總起來的機率超過50%\n所以現在市場是高度壓住\n連續升息\n對 而且日本人看著都快哭了\n說你對 日本人\n不是要救我嗎\n洪廷說的重點在這邊\n力差越來越大\n不是 他就說\n如果你要那麼快速的升息\n那我怎麼辦\n我要不就是放任我的日圓貶值\n可是貝森特又會壓迫我\n那我如果要開速升息的話\n我告訴你日本政府受不了\n日本企業也受不了\n所以現在每日都是困境\n這個困境隨著油價一直漲上去\n真的是變成無解\n所以 貝森特只能說\n這是全球性的問題\n美國自己整個國家制度的問題\n美國其實是相信民主的國家\n所以他的一個態勢很清楚\n就是說你做什麼選擇\n都讓老百姓們來決定對與錯\n那以前大家都認為揭露這件事情\n可以造成什麼 政府的這個\n他們講說accountable\n對 透明\n所以我可以檢視 我可以檢驗\n我可以檢視這個政治人物\n但遇到川普這件事情完全就沒了\n所以你看美國\n不管是他的這個政治現金的制度\n遊說的制度\n他的意思就是說\n不管你做了再怎麼下災難的事情\n你只要有揭露\n就一切讓民眾來決定你的未來\n這就是真的民主的\n這樣的一個大大的真諦\n但遇到川普眾人\n他的臉皮厚到一個程度\n然後民眾居然也覺得\n在他任期裡面\n他如果完全不care\n這面子問題\n他做這些選擇\n所以你可以要\n其實認真檢視他的交易\n他的交易裡面有非常多利益衝突的問題\n對 那這樣的一個利益衝突的問題\n司法有在介入嗎\n我個人目前暫時打一個問號\n那他下來之後會怎麼處理\n我也還是在打一個問號\n那民眾怎麼看這件事情\n你會發現好像川普現在慢慢的把政府\n對民眾的這種忍受程度\n越拉越開 越拉越開\n所以這個是一個大問題\n那回過頭來講就是說好\n那大家都覺得我們現在已經進入\n一個前所未有的時代了\n那為什麼大家買進美股的規模\n又比買進美債的多\n我認為現在市場\n有一個非常不好的投機的性格\n就是龐氏騙局的這個泡泡越吹\n越大 越吹 越大 吹到\n吹到有點像一部電影的名字\n叫大刀不能倒\n那如果是大到不能倒\n那很多人就相信一件事情\n就是我如果在一個大到不能倒的結構裡面\n我就不要去care風險的事了\n我就讀更大\n是對\n所以你看為什麼去買美股\n因為好啊\n因為美債\n因為他相信一件事\n就是美債不會出問題\n哪怕美債的結構\n美債的finance structure\n大家看了以後都覺得說\n這個利息如果還升息\n美債現在這個結構\n如果還能升到五碼\n我跟你講這是前所未有的\n就是全世界在看說\n這如果是個公司\n他怎麼可能還有股票\n他的資產負債表是很高的\n就是慘到一個程度了\n但鳳馨姐一開始就講\n鈔票是美國印的\n是 所以這也就是為什麼\n大家認為就是說\n好 那國家不會倒\n如果國家不會倒的話\n美債這個狀況\n要解決美債的狀況\n只能創造無限的\nInflation印鈔票\n那印鈔票的時候\n資產價格就會被拉高\n那很多人就在偷這件事情\n就是說好啦\n如果不可能出現perfect stone\n那我就買美股吧\n因為美股只要印鈔票\n美股水一打開\n因為美股就繼續漲\n然後大家就是一直瘋漲\n瘋漲瘋漲\n然後所有人就當作資產負責表不重要\n基本面不重要\n那這樣子\n只是這個盛宴到底\n到底會走成什麼樣子\n我認為沒有人知道\n因為08年的金融海嘯\n還有一點脈絡可循\n現在這個脈絡配合川普的這樣子的\n川普所主導的經濟幕僚\n然後再加上現在的這個態勢\n我真的很難預測\n我必須講 我真的很難預測\n但是說老實話\n你稍微有一點經濟概念的人\n所有的基本面跟所有經濟的專家\n都會告訴你說超級危險\n對 可是股票還是跟你在這邊\n現在就是變成只要有一點有消息\n大家就會發現股市就在漲了\n但是如果剛剛鳳京姐講的東西\n我比較擔心的就是跟日本的聯動\n因為日本這個國家\n是沒有辦法承受這種狀況的\n那其實也有很多國家也沒辦法承受\n說老實話 美國自己\n有沒有辦法承受這麼大的通貨膨脹\n我也認為不可能\n所以整個經濟結構極度不穩定\n所以還是保守一點會好一點\n添加水染嘎巴\n色胺酸 茶胺酸 香蜂草\n四大天然草本\n选择太阳新全校克菲尔一身菌\n做好日常保养 身体轻松无负担\n每日克菲尔时刻美好\nGood feel feel good\n请上快点购为健康下单\n输入推荐码 有额外折扣\n太阳新全校克菲尔一身菌\n基础版 晚安加强版\n新包装改版内容不便\n抽取更方便\n要吃就吃最好的",
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      "end": 3.4,
      "text": "貝森特其實他已經不是怪東怪西",
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      "text": "因為他已經找不到理由了",
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      "text": "他其實就是潛移祭求",
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      "end": 12.34,
      "text": "他當初去美日共同干預日圓的會試",
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      "start": 12.34,
      "end": 13.76,
      "text": "他現在就很老實的說",
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      "text": "我因為要救美債",
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      "text": "因為我不能夠讓美國",
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      "text": "不能讓日本央行",
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      "text": "日本政府去賣美債",
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      "text": "所以我只好共同來干預日圓的會試",
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      "text": "要求日本央行升息 升息再升息",
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      "text": "所以今天是星期三",
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      "end": 40.88,
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      "end": 43.44,
      "text": "但是已經不是他升不升息的問題",
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      "end": 46.32,
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      "start": 46.32,
      "end": 48.32,
      "text": "到底有多大",
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      "end": 51.12,
      "text": "因為他在二零二四年開始",
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      "start": 51.12,
      "end": 54.56,
      "text": "從這個負的零點一的這個基準利率",
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      "text": "宏廷就會告訴你答案說",
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      "text": "當然是買阿發貝",
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      "start": 277.8,
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      "text": "這個大概90%以上的機率",
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      "start": 279.86,
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      "text": "他如果升息一碼",
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    {
      "start": 281.4,
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      "text": "大家還會再去看",
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      "start": 282.84,
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      "text": "那但是你會不會連續升息",
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      "start": 285.48,
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      "text": "還是你就升了一碼之後就停了",
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      "start": 288.68,
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      "text": "這才是重點",
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      "start": 290.26,
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      "text": "就如果你是升一碼之后就停了",
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      "start": 293.46,
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      "text": "这个对金融市场来讲最欢迎",
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      "text": "因为市场已经",
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      "start": 297.24,
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      "text": "已经是这个已经是",
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      "start": 299.82,
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      "text": "就已经定价是在你升息一碼的状况了",
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      "text": "但如果你连续升息",
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      "text": "那市场就影响非常大",
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      "text": "所以你的这张表当中",
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      "start": 309.5,
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      "text": "其实就重点来了",
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    {
      "start": 310.94,
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      "text": "10月",
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      "text": "你要看12月",
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    {
      "start": 313.06,
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      "text": "12月的数字",
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      "start": 315.02,
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      "text": "12月的数字当中",
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      "start": 316.84,
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      "text": "那个400到425",
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      "start": 319.24,
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      "text": "意思是說4%到4.25%",
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      "start": 321.9,
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      "text": "表示說到年底之前",
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    {
      "start": 325.08,
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      "text": "49.6%的機率會升息兩碼",
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      "start": 328.88,
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      "text": "可是不止",
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    {
      "start": 330.92,
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      "text": "認為會升息三碼的機率",
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      "start": 333.18,
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      "text": "是28.6%",
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    {
      "start": 335.26,
      "end": 336.72,
      "text": "換句話說",
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    {
      "start": 336.72,
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      "text": "認為會升息兩碼或三碼的機率",
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    {
      "start": 340.16,
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      "text": "其實已經接近八成了",
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      "start": 341.86,
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      "text": "對",
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    {
      "start": 343.24,
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      "text": "那這件事情的重要性在哪裡",
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    {
      "start": 345.8,
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      "text": "你要知道我們從現在",
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      "start": 348.0,
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      "text": "最现在的会议到年底",
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      "start": 350.84,
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      "text": "一共只有三次会议",
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      "start": 352.3,
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      "text": "如果三次会议会升息两码或三码",
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      "start": 355.36,
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      "text": "那就意味着几乎每一次都要升",
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    {
      "start": 358.78,
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      "text": "然后你再来看这张表当中的",
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      "start": 362.06,
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      "text": "明年的7月28号",
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      "start": 364.6,
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      "text": "这里",
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    {
      "start": 365.02,
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      "text": "我们看时隔一年之后",
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      "start": 367.76,
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      "text": "认为会升息一个百分点的几率是30%",
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      "start": 373.28,
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      "text": "如果再加上升息五码18%",
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      "start": 377.76,
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      "text": "升息6% 5.9%",
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    {
      "start": 380.72,
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      "text": "加總起來升息一個百分點以上",
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      "start": 383.92,
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      "text": "加總起來的機率超過50%",
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    {
      "start": 386.66,
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      "text": "所以現在市場是高度壓住",
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    {
      "start": 389.52,
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      "text": "連續升息",
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    {
      "start": 391.64,
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      "text": "對 而且日本人看著都快哭了",
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      "start": 394.0,
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      "text": "說你對 日本人",
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    {
      "start": 396.56,
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      "text": "不是要救我嗎",
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    {
      "start": 398.06,
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      "text": "洪廷說的重點在這邊",
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    {
      "start": 400.06,
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      "text": "力差越來越大",
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    {
      "start": 400.56,
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      "text": "不是 他就說",
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      "start": 401.74,
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      "text": "如果你要那麼快速的升息",
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    {
      "start": 404.0,
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      "text": "那我怎麼辦",
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      "start": 405.6,
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      "text": "我要不就是放任我的日圓貶值",
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      "start": 408.14,
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      "text": "可是貝森特又會壓迫我",
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      "start": 410.18,
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      "text": "那我如果要開速升息的話",
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      "start": 412.46,
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      "text": "我告訴你日本政府受不了",
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      "start": 413.86,
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      "text": "可以造成什麼 政府的這個",
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      "start": 492.338,
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      "text": "司法有在介入嗎",
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      "text": "越拉越開 越拉越開",
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      "start": 523.038,
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      "start": 524.978,
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      "text": "吹到有點像一部電影的名字",
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      "start": 540.138,
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      "start": 543.318,
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      "start": 545.858,
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      "text": "所以你看為什麼去買美股",
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      "text": "因為美債",
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      "start": 551.578,
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      "text": "因為他相信一件事",
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      "start": 554.698,
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      "text": "哪怕美債的結構",
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    {
      "start": 556.398,
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      "text": "美債的finance structure",
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    {
      "start": 557.818,
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      "text": "大家看了以後都覺得說",
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    {
      "start": 559.318,
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      "text": "這個利息如果還升息",
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      "start": 561.138,
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      "text": "美債現在這個結構",
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      "start": 562.178,
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      "start": 563.738,
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      "text": "我跟你講這是前所未有的",
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      "text": "就是全世界在看說",
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      "text": "這如果是個公司",
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      "text": "他怎麼可能還有股票",
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      "start": 569.738,
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      "text": "他的資產負債表是很高的",
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      "text": "就是慘到一個程度了",
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      "text": "但鳳馨姐一開始就講",
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      "start": 575.458,
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      "text": "是 所以這也就是為什麼",
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      "start": 582.198,
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      "start": 585.838,
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    {
      "start": 587.138,
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      "text": "只能創造無限的",
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    {
      "start": 588.798,
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      "text": "Inflation印鈔票",
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      "start": 591.198,
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      "text": "資產價格就會被拉高",
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      "start": 593.738,
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      "text": "就是說好啦",
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    {
      "start": 596.938,
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      "text": "如果不可能出現perfect stone",
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      "text": "那我就買美股吧",
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      "start": 600.138,
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      "text": "因為美股只要印鈔票",
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      "start": 601.638,
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      "text": "美股水一打開",
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      "text": "因為美股就繼續漲",
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    {
      "start": 603.638,
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      "text": "然後大家就是一直瘋漲",
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    {
      "start": 606.438,
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      "text": "然後所有人就當作資產負責表不重要",
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    {
      "start": 608.738,
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      "text": "基本面不重要",
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      "text": "那這樣子",
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    {
      "start": 611.338,
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      "text": "只是這個盛宴到底",
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      "start": 613.438,
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      "text": "到底會走成什麼樣子",
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      "text": "我認為沒有人知道",
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      "start": 617.338,
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      "text": "因為08年的金融海嘯",
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      "start": 619.438,
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      "text": "還有一點脈絡可循",
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      "start": 621.338,
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      "text": "現在這個脈絡配合川普的這樣子的",
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      "start": 624.098,
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      "text": "川普所主導的經濟幕僚",
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      "start": 626.458,
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      "text": "然後再加上現在的這個態勢",
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    {
      "start": 630.178,
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      "text": "我真的很難預測",
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      "text": "都會告訴你說超級危險",
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      "text": "對 可是股票還是跟你在這邊",
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      "text": "現在就是變成只要有一點有消息",
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      "start": 648.098,
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      "text": "大家就會發現股市就在漲了",
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      "start": 649.978,
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      "text": "但是如果剛剛鳳京姐講的東西",
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      "start": 652.178,
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      "text": "我比較擔心的就是跟日本的聯動",
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      "text": "因為日本這個國家",
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      "start": 656.178,
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      "text": "是沒有辦法承受這種狀況的",
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      "text": "那其實也有很多國家也沒辦法承受",
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      "start": 660.618,
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      "text": "說老實話 美國自己",
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      "start": 662.058,
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      "text": "有沒有辦法承受這麼大的通貨膨脹",
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      "start": 663.958,
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      "text": "我也認為不可能",
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    {
      "start": 665.798,
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      "text": "所以整個經濟結構極度不穩定",
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    {
      "start": 668.358,
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      "text": "所以還是保守一點會好一點",
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    {
      "start": 679.978,
      "end": 681.198,
      "text": "添加水染嘎巴",
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    {
      "start": 681.198,
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      "text": "色胺酸 茶胺酸 香蜂草",
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    {
      "start": 683.758,
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      "text": "四大天然草本",
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    {
      "start": 685.318,
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      "text": "选择太阳新全校克菲尔一身菌",
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    {
      "start": 687.458,
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      "text": "做好日常保养 身体轻松无负担",
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      "start": 690.298,
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      "text": "每日克菲尔时刻美好",
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      "text": "Good feel feel good",
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      "text": "请上快点购为健康下单",
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    {
      "start": 695.578,
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      "text": "输入推荐码 有额外折扣",
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    {
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      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "start": 700.158,
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      "text": "基础版 晚安加强版",
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    {
      "start": 701.858,
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      "text": "新包装改版内容不便",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 703.758,
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      "text": "抽取更方便",
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      "text": "要吃就吃最好的",
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