{ "text": "假如有這麼一個人,常年欠錢,欠的還比自己賺得多,還天天見心還救,就是不肯把欠債還清。你覺得他會怎麼樣?常識不外乎是,銀行會把他列入黑名單,因為怕再借給他,本金就要血本無歸。債主也會天天盯著他還錢,生怕他哪天突然崩盤跑路。但是在國際金融市場,有這麼一個借款人,完全打破了這種常識。\n美国政府的欠债也是早就超过一年的GDP了\n欠债的绝对金额更是全球第一\n还天天借金还旧\n就是不把欠债还清\n可神奇的是没有人催他还钱\n而且想借给他的钱比他想要借的还要多得多\n全世界最聪明最有钱的人\n甚至排着队要把钱借给他\n这还不是一次两次\n几十年都是这样\n这又是个什么逻辑呢\n每次听到美国负债\n几十万亿又创新高的这种新闻的时候\n你是不是都有一种困惑不解的感觉\n新闻里面还经常说美债危险了危险了\n但是从来没有见谁催美国还钱\n美国凭什么就能欠那么多债呢\n借来的钱花哪去了\n就这么一直借就没有个上限的吗\n真要这么一直借到最后它会怎么样\n今天我们就做一件事情\n从最底层开始\n把美债这种东西一层一层拆开来\n彻底讲清楚\n看完之后你不但能完整入门\n而且呢再看到任何美债危机\n美元崩溃的这一类的新闻\n你自己就能判断\n它是真问题还是骗点击\n我们从第一层开始\n美国国债到底是个什么东西\n绝大多数谈美债的内容啊\n它会跳过这一步\n直接开始巴拉巴拉讲\n结果呢观众听了半天\n其实始终不明白自己在听什么\n我们今天就从这个最基本的问题开始\n任何一个国家每年都会有收入\n主要是税收\n每年也都会有支出\n比如军费 社会保障 医疗等等\n美国也这样\n而且长期以来\n美国每年都是支出大于收入\n那东间这个差额怎么补呢\n由财政部发债向市场借钱\n那有些人心里会想\n干嘛还发债借钱呢\n直接印钱不更快吗\n别笑\n美国最早就是这么干的\n1775年美国独立战争开打\n当时美国这边还是大陆议会在画市\n但是他刚成立没有税收\n打仗又很花钱\n于是大陆议会就选了一个最直接的办法\n印钞票\n一种叫做大陆币的纸币\n结果呢\n钞票越印越多\n能买到的东西却没变多\n大陆币购买力还一路下跌\n几年之内就变成了废纸\n当时美国人留下了一句骂人的话\n叫连一张大陆币都不值\n这就是美国的第一个财政实验\n结论是印钱这条路走不通\n财政试验虽然失败了\n但独立战争还是打赢了\n美国站稳脚关之后换了一条路\n第二条路\n第一任财政部长哈密尔顿\n在1790年做了个决定\n联邦政府把各州打仗\n欠下来的债全部接手过来\n并且按照借条上的原始金额\n一分不少的全额承认\n按时付利息\n当时很多人就反对\n因为全额还债的负担很重\n但是哈密尔顿的理由是\n一个国家新成立\n最值钱的东西是借钱必还的这个信用\n有了信用以后才能永远借到钱\n而且借的还便宜\n看到没有\n美国建国之初就试了两条路\n一条路呢印钱印成了废纸\n另一条路还债还还出了信用\n之后两百多年\n美国基本上就沿着这第二条路走的\n就是借钱还钱还债\n记住这个对比\n后面我们还会讲到\n那么美国联邦政府的债券具体是个什么呢\n其实就是一份标准化的借条\n上面写了三样东西\n第一是面额债主借出多少钱\n第二就是到期日\n就是美国政府什么时候把这个本金还给你\n第三就是利率\n在这个期间每年付给债主多少利息\n这种借据借条按时间长短分为三类\n一年以内的叫国库券\n两年到十年的叫票据\n二十年到三十年的叫长期债券\n那么这些债券是怎么卖出去的呢\n公开拍卖\n每个星期都在进行\n全世界的银行基金政府都可以出价\n出价的方式是报利率\n谁报的利率低\n就等于他收的利息少\n债券就优先卖给他\n债主买到这个债券之后\n就按期收利息\n到期了就收本金\n那债主要是没到期\n中毒想退出了\n可以吗\n可以随时债券都可以转卖\n市场上每一天的交易量\n以千亿美元计算\n随时都能转手卖掉\n但是注意\n债主中途转手卖的这个价格\n可能就不一定是买入时候的价格了\n打个比方\n比如你花100块钱买了一张债券\n每年利息美国给你两块\n但是过了一年市场变了\n政府发了一批新的债券\n同样是100块\n每年付利息4块\n这个时候\n你要想把手里面的旧债券卖掉\n问题就来了\n谁会用同样的100块\n去买一张每年只给2块钱利息的旧债券呢\n没有人买\n那怎么办\n只能打折卖\n打折到什么程度\n打折到买这张旧债券的人\n算下来的回报和买现在的新债券\n差不多才会有人接手\n这就是债券市场上的一条铁律\n市场利率要是上升了\n已经发行的低利率的旧债券就会跌价\n反过来也成立\n政府发的新债券\n一年给不到两块钱的利息\n只能给到一块五了\n那么你原来买的那张两块钱利息的旧债券\n它就值钱了 涨价了\n这就是市场利率下降\n原本高利率的旧债券就涨价了\n方向永远是相反的\n这一条很重要\n要记住 一会儿我们也会用到它\n好 讲到这里\n就可以修正美债的第一个流行误解了\n一般人认为美债签40兆40万亿\n只是一笔借款\n只有一个债主\n一张借条 一个还款日\n不对\n其实它是几万期债券的总和\n每一期都有自己的面额利率和到期日\n就是每个星期都有旧债到期新债发出\n这像什么呢\n想象一个画面就像一条流动的河\n美债就像一条水量充沛滔滔不绝的河\n请你记住这个画面\n有了这个印象\n后面的很多事就能很快理解了\n那么下一个问题来了\n这个几万期的债券都在谁的手里呢\n也就是债主都有谁呢\n来看这个结构\n大约两成在美国政府自己的内部账户里\n主要是社会安全信托基金\n直白的说就是美国人的退休金体系\n依法把节余的钱买成了国债\n这部分占两成\n另外一成在美国的中央银行\n也就是联准会或者叫美联储手里\n另外四成五左右\n在美国国内的共同基金退休基金\n银行保险公司手里面\n那么把这美国国内这三块加起来\n美债的七成以上\n债主是美国自己的体系\n剩下不到四分之一\n才是外国持有\n哪些外国呢\n到2026年8月\n持债最多的第一是日本\n第二是英国\n然后才是中国\n而且呢\n中国的持仓已经降到美债的总量的1.6%左右\n是十几年来的最低点\n另外\n台湾畏惧全球前十大债主\n香港紧随前后\n所以很多人第一印象\n美国的债主要是欠中国的\n现在要修正了\n十几年前的2013年可以这么说\n那么今天的名单已经不是这样了\n如果是旧债到期了 美国政府立刻就会发一笔新债\n用新借来的钱来还旧债的欠款\n通俗的说就是发新债还旧债\n你看这个设计 欠款还了吗 还了\n钱怎么来的呢 借来的\n旧债还掉的同时背上了新债\n欠债一分没少 从上一期债券滚动到下一期债券\n就像永远在这个河里面流动 永远不需要上岸\n那政府一分钱都不用掏吗 也不是 是要付利息的\n旧债的本金虽然可以用新债来替上\n但是这个利息是要付出去的\n而且利息每年都要付\n新债产生了滚动下去\n但利息要是也不想付呢\n也可以\n那就把本金利息算在一块\n再发一笔新债\n听起来像骗局对吧\n但是全世界所有的国家都是这套标准的玩法\n英国的国债从200年前\n拿破仑战争时期\n一路滚动到今天\n还在照常运行\n日本 德国 法国全都如此\n美债当然也一样\n全世界没有任何一个主要经济体在还清国债\n也没有任何债主要求他们还清\n是不是听着听着突然一种心动的感觉\n我是不是也可以这么玩\n一直借薪还救这多好啊\n讲多了 普通人做不到\n为什么普通人做不到 政府却可以呢\n这里有三个结构性的差异\n第一是寿命\n人哪怕再长寿也是会死的\n所以银行给个人的房贷\n必须在个人有生之年还清\n其他贷款也这样\n但是政府是没有说明的\n今年有税收 明年有税收\n一百年后还有税收\n债主面对的是一个理论上永远存在的收入来源\n所以债务是可以永远的滚动下去的\n只要利息付得出来\n第二个结构性差异 收入\n个人的薪水是老板定的\n不能自己给自己加薪\n但政府有正税权\n他想要增加收入\n只要法律上通得过\n就可以自己加税\n债主借钱给个人\n是看他现在的收入还不还得起\n但借钱给政府呢\n看的是整个国家现在和未来的征税能力\n第三个结构性的区别也是最关键的\n美国国债是由美元计价的\n而美元由美国自己发行\n也就是美国能自己印钱来还美债\n但个人欠银行欠债主的钱\n你个人可印不出钱来\n这就意味着在技术层面上\n美国永远不会拿不出钱\n但是请注意\n付不付得出来这笔钱\n和付出来的这笔钱还值多少钱\n是两回事\n后面你会看得更清楚一些\n那既然美国能自己印美元\n为什么不一把印出来全部还清呢\n还记得我们前面说过吗\n印钱太多钱就变成废纸了\n那欠债就一直不还清吗\n没错就是一直不还清\n他从一开始就没想着要还清\n还是哈密尔顿他在设计这套体系的时候\n第一天就说的很直白\n一笔规模适度的国债\n对国家来说不是负担是好处\n因为它给了全国的资金一个安全的去处\n也让政府和市场紧紧的绑在一起\n不还清不是这套体系200年之后堕落了\n而是出厂设定它就是这么设定的\n那有观众会说那不行\n我处女座强迫症不还清我不舒服\n没问题\n美国历史上也有这样的总统\n还真的把国债就还清了\n1835年东方还是大清皇上还是道光\n美国这边的总统是杰克逊总统\n一把他就把国债给归零了\n这个无债一身轻的状态维持了大约一年\n很快美国就陷入了严重的金融危机和经济萧条\n政府收入锐减债务很快又回来了\n不过要说一句\n是不是因为还清国债导致了这个萧条\n这个原因更复杂\n以后有机会我们再详细展开讲\n但是有一个事实是确定的\n国债清零这件事情\n美国历史上总共只存在了一年左右\n而美国建国250年除了这一年左右之后\n再也没有人把还清国债当成美国自己的目标\n好 既然美国一直欠扯那么多债\n全世界为什么还心甘情愿几十年如一日的买这个债券呢\n不借钱给美国不买美国国债不行吗\n好问题 不买还真不行\n但这个不行不是谁下的命令\n也不是哪条法律规定的\n而是历史发展到这一步走出来的一个必然结果\n1944年第二次世界大战终于快打完了\n40多个国家派了代表到美国开会\n开什么会呢\n讨论战后全球货币秩序的会\n为什么要讨论全球货币秩序呢\n因为在过去几十年\n世界各国不但用坦克飞机大炮互相打仗\n在经济上也是互相打\n怎么互相打的呢\n要么是防守\n互相对别国疯狂的加关税\n让别国货物进不来本国\n这就是贸易保护主义\n要么就是进攻\n让本国货币疯狂的贬值\n为什么本国货币贬值是进攻呢\n比如我们举个例子\n英国把英镑贬值了10%\n那么这一下子英国商品卖到法国去就变便宜了\n法国一看这么多英国货杀到我法国来了\n他也就有样学样\n把法郎贬值20%\n那么法国货又杀回英国去\n大家就这样互相伤害\n结果是什么呢\n是谁也不敢持有对方的货币\n因为睡一觉醒来\n很可能就贬值了10% 20%甚至贬成废纸了\n那么最后大家都意识到不能再这样下去了\n那怎么办呢\n既然信不过英镑也信不过法郎\n就必须要找一个大家都信得过\n而且绝对不会随便贬值的东西往那儿一定\n就像个毛一样\n毛定了大家好参考\n这时候是1944年\n欧洲已经被打得稀巴烂\n亚洲和北非那也是战火纷飞\n只有美国最安全\n因为它离战场最远\n他还趁机卖粮食卖军火卖物资给各国\n直收黄金\n所以呢全球大约70%到80%的黄金都到了美国\n藏在美国的金库里\n美国就说啊既然这样\n我美元就来做这个你们参照的这个毛\n你们各国货币全部给我美元挂钩\n而我的美元呢\n直接跟我们美国金库里面的黄金死死绑定\n每35美元就等于1盎司黄金\n任何人只要拿着35美元来\n就随时兑换给你一盎司黄金\n各国讨论来讨论去\n讨论了20多天最后发现\n能找到的最好的办法也就是这样了\n于是就都同意\n这就是历史上著名的美元挂钩黄金\n各国货币又去挂钩美元这个制度\n因为开会的地点叫布雷顿森林\n所以这一套新制度就叫做布雷顿森林体系\n台湾翻译叫布雷顿森林体系\n这个制度很快带来了一连串的连锁反应\n二战打完之后\n全球贸易恢复了\n各国又开始互相做进口生意\n做出口生意做买卖\n做着做着就发现\n虽然我英镑法兰日元\n还有巴西的雷亚尔都跟美元挂钩了\n但是到了结算的时候\n还是得用美元结算\n因为对方只收美元\n因为美元是直接挂钩黄金的\n那轮到我来收钱的时候\n我当然也只收美元\n一来二去市场上绝大部分货币\n它都是美元了\n各国口袋里的美元也越来越多\n就这么过了十几二十年\n有一个金鸣\n而且多疑的人意识到了不对劲\n他发现美国在全世界发行的美元数量\n已经超过了美国金库黄金的总价值\n这个人是谁呢\n是当时法国的总统戴高乐\n戴高乐就对美国说\n我法国不要美元了\n我们要对回黄金\n那這件事情到底是戴高樂的猜測還是真相就如此呢?答案是後者。\n美國1960年代對外呢大越戰,對內呢大撒幣大搞福利,花錢花超了,\n只好偷偷的开动机器印钱 白嫖大家的黄金白银\n这种事只要一个人知道 等于全世界都知道了\n结果呢 你对黄金 我也对黄金几年下来\n就把美国的黄金都快对没了\n也看这个挂钩黄金的布雷顿森林体系要完\n美国人也是眼疾手快 立刻又盯上了另一样好东西\n是什么呢 石油\n1974年 美国和全球最大的石油出口国沙特 沙乌地阿拉伯\n阿乌地阿拉伯秘密谈成了协议\n美国出武器出军队保护沙特阿拉伯\n而这个沙特阿拉伯的所有的石油呢\n必须用美元结算\n沙特立刻就答应了\n他一答应\n整个石油输出国组织就纷纷跟着答应\n从此呢\n全世界任何一个国家\n只要想开工厂\n开汽车\n发电\n你就必须得买石油\n而买石油就必须用美元来结算\n结果呢\n全球贸易还得继续用美元结算\n而且呢\n出口强的国家比如东亚这几个收进来的美元比付出去的美元多\n美元就年复一年趴在这个国家的银行的账上\n这笔积累起来的美元就叫做外汇储备\n那你可能会问为什么一定要储备美元呢\n生意一结束就把美元换成我自己的货币那不是更好吗\n行倒是行\n但是一个国家的全球生意哪里有结束的时候呢\n又有哪个国家可以全部出口不进口任何一点东西呢\n一旦生意结束的时候要是换回自己的货币\n那么下一单生意的时候岂不是又得换回来\n还要两笔手续费\n所以任何一个国家只要有进口站上就必须要储备美元\n而国际贸易做得越大的国家外汇储备必然就越多\n外汇储备它就是一种保证进口确保收支结算的工具\n美元还有第二个功能保卫汇率\n当一个国家的货币被市场大量抛售\n对外价值急速下跌的时候\n这个国家唯一能做的事情就是动用它的外汇储备\n在市场上把自己的货币给买回来\n那么市场经济的规律就是\n卖的多价格就便宜\n买的多呢价格就回来了就高\n关键时刻用这个外汇储备\n也就是美元买回自家的货币\n就能撑住自家货币的价格\n这个美元储备有多少\n就决定着这条防线有多深\n好看到这里你知道了\n外汇储备果然很重要\n也是全国人民辛辛苦苦出口赚来的\n那咱们就好好锁在自己国家的银行金库里面\n要用的时候就拿\n这不是最安全最省事吗\n为什么非得要拿去买美国的国债呢\n锁在自己银行的金库里面行倒是行\n可是这样一来呢\n这样大的一笔外汇就没有利息了\n哪怕有吃的也是自家的利息\n而且别忘了还有个通货膨胀\n假设全球每一年平均的通货膨胀是3%\n那么1000亿美元的外汇\n如果锁在自家的银行不动\n美国一年它的实质购买力\n就会凭空的蒸发掉30亿美元\n那这样肯定不行\n我得存到别国银行去\n去吃他家的利息\n你这样想别的国家也这么想\n那么多国家那么多外汇\n于是都想存到某一个银行去\n去吃他家的利息\n可是世界上哪一家银行\n装得下这么多美元的外汇储备呢\n看来看去最后发现\n只有美债市场这条河\n它能装得下\n还记得我们前面说的\n河这个比喻吗\n只有这条不断流动的河\n它能装得下\n第一 美债市场规模足够大\n截止到2026年\n美国的国债市场的规模高达40万亿美元\n全世界的储备加起来\n也才十几万亿的量级\n所以美债市场这条大河装得下\n第二 随时能变现\n金融危机以来是一小时计算的\n资产必须能立刻卖掉变成现金\n而且一次卖几百亿\n价格还不能崩\n前面说过 美债市场的规模大\n就像一条大河水量充足\n每天的交易量是千亿级的\n你哪怕连续几天抽走个几百亿上千亿\n也就是1%到2的这个量级\n它的价格不会剧烈变化\n第三是法律上可靠\n放在美债市场里面的钱\n不会被冻结\n不会被限制转出\n第四呢\n还能给你吃利息\n那么全世界其他选项呢\n我们一个一个来看\n看看有没有达到美债这么好使这个量级的\n先看德国国债\n信用虽然是一流的\n但是德国政府借钱太节制了\n发的债太少\n整个市场的规模是装不下全球的储备的\n再看欧元区整体\n欧元区没有统一的财政部\n各国债券的信用呢\n参差不齐\n希腊前些年爆发了债务危机\n他就证明了\n用欧元计价不等于一样安全\n第三\n看人民币资产\n中国对资金的进出境呢\n是有管制的\n要审批\n万一危机时刻\n不能自由的取出来\n那岂不是灭顶之灾吗\n第四看黄金\n黄金没有利息\n而且呢\n市场装不下这么大的量\n几千亿美元级别\n买入黄金或者卖出黄金会直接把这个金价推出剧烈波动\n就会变成买的时候贵\n卖的时候价格崩\n不好搞\n第五再来看瑞士法拉昂或者日月\n货币本身可靠\n但是市场规模也太小了\n比美债小一到两个数量级\n看来看去美债就成了唯一的选项\n那么这个唯一选项唯一到了什么程度呢\n有一个最极端的实测\n2008年全球爆发金融危机\n美国房贷市场和美国的银行搞出了这个问题\n美国是这场危机的源头\n那叫常理\n全世界的资金应该赶紧逃离美国才对\n但是实际情况恰恰相反\n美国资金恐慌性的卖掉手里面的各种资产\n换成的东西是什么呢\n恰恰是美债\n美债价格不跌反而涨了\n危机是美国引起的\n避难的资金却涌向美国政府的债券\n你看就是在这么极端的时刻\n全世界唯一信任的还是美债\n找不到第二个地方可以去\n所以这里来修正第三个普遍的误解\n一般人以为各国买美债\n是因为看好美国信任美国\n不对\n实际上主要动机是各国的储备\n它需要一个存放的地方\n而全世界找不到第二个比美债更适合的选项了\n这就造成了很多国家一边公开批评美国\n一边继续买美国国债\n这么一个奇特景象\n不是各国虚伪\n是没有更好的选项了\n那把这个逻辑推到底\n会得到一个听起来很刺耳的结论\n全球金融体系的真实困境\n从来不是因为美债太多\n而是够安全的资产太少\n这句话听起来像是在替美国辩护\n所以要补充一个很少人知道的事实\n20多年前\n美国政府连续几年财政有盈余\n又一次想要还清美债\n还着还着发现不对劲\n于是就找了经济学家\n认真研究了国债清零会怎样\n结果发现清零之后会引发系统新的风险\n这一期我专门讲过\n有兴趣你看完本片再去我频道找来详细看\n好到这里你会发现\n美债这个体系看起来还挺好啊\n本金一直在滚利息也一直在付\n买家呢也是自己的真实需求离不开\n很完美对不对\n确实一度很完美\n尤其是美债借来的钱\n花对地方能钱生钱的时候\n哪怕付掉再多的利息\n家底还是会越来越厚\n但是呢万一美债借来的钱\n花的地方不能够钱生钱了\n事情就会走向反面\n你肯定就会问\n那美债借来的钱都花到哪去了呢\n花在哪的钱才能钱生钱\n花去哪有没有这个效果呢\n我們來看看美國200年的借債花錢史。19世紀,聯邦和各州政府開始大筆借錢。\n原來幹嘛呢?修運河、修鐵路。這些基礎設施建成之後,貿易擴大了,經濟成長了,\n税收大幅增加了\n轻而易举的就消化掉了债务本金加利息\n美国家底越来越厚\n二战之后呢\n联邦政府又继续借钱\n这一次是干嘛呢\n修洲际公路系统\n最后公路网遍布全国\n运输成本大幅下降\n制造业也飞快的成长\n再次轻而易举的覆盖了债务本金加利息\n这一次又赢了\n到了冷战时期\n美国联邦政府又大量借钱\n干嘛呢\n这次是投入军事科研\n后来的互联网啊太空卫星啊GPS啊\n都是那时候预算的副产品\n这些产业有多赚钱大家都清楚了\n发现没有这类的建债花的钱花的地方\n它有个共同点\n它们都能让未来能收到的税变多\n等于是借钱让自己变强了\n债越借还债的能力反而越强\n那后来呢后来情况变了\n最近15年美国新增的债务\n主要留下了另外三个地方\n第一 社会保障和医疗支出\n美国人口逐步老化\n领退休金和用医疗保险的人逐年增多\n政府就要支付更多的钱\n第二 花在两次危机救助上\n2008年的金融危机和2020年的疫情\n两轮大规模的财政投放\n而比涨此消的是第三\n收入端反而变小了\n因为几轮减税之后\n美国政府税收占经济的比例下降了\n你会说 可是这三类支出都非常必要\n没错\n不仅非常必要还很正当\n救助避免了大萧条重演\n养老和医疗是社会对老人的承诺\n减税可以促进经济增长\n但是他们在财务上都有个共同特征\n他们不直接产生未来的税收\n而且这种支出结构里面还有个重要特征\n什么特征\n就是一旦结构化\n它就是刚性的很难逆转\n痛楚的来说就是掉不了头了\n什么意思呢\n美国联邦政府的支出它分两类\n一类是每年需要国会投票批准的\n比如国防教育科研\n另一类是按照法律自动执行\n不需要任何人投票都会花出去的\n是哪一些呢\n就是刚才说的社保医保加上利息\n这一部分的支出到底有多大呢\n到了2026年8月\n自动执行的支出部分\n已经占到联邦总支出的六成以上\n而且随着人口老化\n以后还会肉眼可见的上升\n这就是所谓的结构刚性\n它意味着就算今天打破头的两党\n明天突然达成共识要削解开支\n那能削解的部分就只剩下那个不到四成的那部分\n就是国防教育科研\n而把那不到四成都砍光\n都填不平每年的赤字\n但是这部分能砍吗\n能砍多少\n想想都不太现实\n所以到这里就要进行第四个误解误读的修正了\n有人说美国借钱是发展经济\n也有人说美国借钱是挥霍\n这两种说法都不够准确\n准确的描述是\n美国借来的钱就是国债\n它流向的地方\n在过去几十年里\n从能扩大税级的项目\n逐渐转移到了维持现状的项目上\n这会带来一个什么后果呢\n后果就是\n美国还债能力的增长\n追不上债务成本的增长了\n那么顺理成章的\n下一个问题就来了\n美债这么搞下去\n它的上限到底在哪里呢\n有些朋友立刻会问\n美国不是有个债务上限吗\n新闻里面过段时间\n就会报道一次\n两党因为这个债务上限吵架了\n政府快没钱了\n要违约了\n全球都很紧张\n但是到最后一刻都会达成协议\n上限提高接大欢喜\n要澄清一下\n这个法定的债务上限\n它是美国国会在1939年的时候\n给自己立的一项规矩\n规定财政部借债的总额\n不能超过某个数字\n听起来很严格对吧\n但是你看实际实行\n从1960年到今天\n这个债务上限它被调高暂停修改了\n多少次呢\n大约80次\n平均下来一年都不止一次\n一个每次碰到就会往上调的天花板\n你说它算不算那个固定的刚性的天花板呢\n所以到这里进行第五个误解误读的修正\n美国政治新闻里面的债务上限危机\n本质上它不是财务危机\n而是政治博弈\n两党都知道上限最后一定会提高\n因为不提高后果谁也承担不起\n那他们吵什么呢\n吵的是在这个提高过程中\n能从对方那里换到什么条件\n这出戏演了几十年了\n剧本都没怎么变过\n注意 说它是戏\n不等于说它完全没有后果\n2011年那次债务危机\n两党僵持到最后几天才达成协议\n结果标准普尔历史上\n第一次调低了美国的信用评级\n2023年又是一次争吵\n惠玉也降低了美国评级\n2025年穆迪也降低了美国的信用评级\n三大评级机构\n全部都不再给美国最高评级了\n在那之后虽然天没有塌下来\n美债照样卖得出去\n但这些降级就像是体检报告上\n一次次出现的异常指标\n还没有发展到疾病\n但是异常已经记录在案了\n那么真正的上限又是什么呢\n真正的上限它不是一个具体数字\n很多人以为存在某条线\n比如债务达到GDP的100%\n150% 200%\n一过线就会炸\n但现实不支持这个说法\n截止2026年9月\n美国债务约占GDP的125%\n超过了二战结束时候的106的历史高峰\n没有报\n再看日本债务占到了GDP的超过200%\n是美国的将近两倍\n也没有报\n日本的国债利率还长期是全世界最低的之一\n反过来历史上有些国家\n债务只占GDP的40%50%就报了\n比如一些拉美国家\n所以决定这个生死的\n不是债务数字本身比例本身\n那是什么\n是三个条件\n我们一个一个来看\n第一个条件\n这个债啊\n它是不是用自己发行的货币计价的\n日本欠的是日元\n美国欠的是美元\n都是自己能发行的货币\n技术上永远付得出来\n而爆掉的那些国家呢\n欠的往往是美元\n本国货币一贬值\n债务负担立刻就翻倍\n这才是死穴\n这是第一个条件\n第二个条件\n每年付利息的钱\n占政府收入的比例\n这是核心指标\n你想啊债务本金可以永远的滚动\n永远不用还清\n但利息不行\n利息是每年真金白银要付出去的\n只要利息付得起\n那这条河就能一直留\n利息要是付不起呢\n游戏就会真正结束\n那美国现在的利息负担是个什么水平呢\n这里有一个标志性的变化\n就发生在2026年\n美国联邦政府一年要付的利息\n已经达到一兆\n也就是一万亿美元的这个量级\n历史上第一次超过了它的国防开支\n要知道美国的国防开支是全球第一的\n比后面好几个国家加起来都还多\n而现在光是付这个国债的利息就超过了它\n为什么利息会涨得这么快呢\n两个原因叠加\n一 债务总量在增加\n这很好理解\n第二呢 是利率在涨\n每债每一周都在借薪还救\n这意味着什么\n意味着以前那种低利率时代借的旧债\n到期之后呢\n要用现在的高利率的新债去替换\n美国联邦债务的平均利率\n前几年还在1.5%左右\n截至2026年8月\n已经升到了3%以上\n同样的债务总量\n利息成本就直接翻倍了\n都在对美国的信用进行一次投票\n要是买家很多出价很踊跃\n那么利率自然就会被压得很低\n说明信任还在很稳固\n买家要是兴趣下降了\n压力就来到美国财政部这边了\n那怎么办呢\n财政部就必须提高利率\n才能把这个债给卖出去\n这意味着什么呢\n就意味着全世界在对美国财政部说\n我钱还可以继续借给你\n但是你得多付给我利息\n因为我没有以前那么放心了\n所以把这三个条件加起来\n答案就出来了\n美债真正的上线在哪里\n它不是一个数字\n而是一条动态的边界\n它是由利息占收入的比例\n还有买家的意愿\n共同决定的\n而且每个星期\n都在被重新测量这个边界\n这个边界虽然是动态的\n但是趋势却是明显的\n因为利息负担在加重\n那么最后的问题来了\n也是所有人最想问的\n这么一直借下去\n最后到底会怎么样呢\n先说结论\n可能会让一些\n期待大场面的观众失望\n最后的结局不是爆炸\n而是稀释\n为什么这么说呢\n我们先把其他可能的结局\n一个一个的推演一遍\n第一种可能的结局\n美国正面违约\n就是美国公开宣布债我不还了\n这种可能性接近于零\n为什么呢\n不是因为美国讲道德\n是因为完全没必要\n前面多次讲过\n美债是以美元计价的\n美国永远印得出美元\n一个永远印得出钱的人\n为什么还要赖账呢\n赖账的代价是哈密尔顿\n攒了200多年的信用瞬间归零\n而收益也是零\n没有人会做这种代价无穷大\n而收益为零的事情\n第二种可能\n靠经济成长把债务消化掉\n这是最理想的结果\n而且美国历史上还真的走通过一次\n二战结束的时候\n美国债务占GDP高达106%\n但是到了1974年\n这个比例居然降到了23%\n怎么做到呢\n1945年到1974年\n这个30年里面\n经济高速成长\n税收也跟着涨\n债务数字呢\n虽然也在涨\n但相对于整个经济而言\n它的涨幅就变得微不足道了\n这就是我们前面讲的逻辑\n借来的钱花在能前升钱的地方\n债务就不是问题\n但是也正如前面所讲的\n今天美国的支出结构已经变了\n六成以上是自动执行给养老医疗和利息的钱\n那有人会说\n最近几年人工智能不是成长得特别快吗\n支撑起了美国经济一路走强吗\n虽然我对此也是一定程度上的审视乐观\n但是光靠人工智能能不能让美国再次走通这条路\n重演我们前文所说的二战之后\n经济高速成长之路\n我们这里的不做预测\n只是展示这种可能性交给时间来验证\n这是第二种可能\n第三种可能\n也是历史上大国处理债务\n最常用也是最隐蔽的一条路\n是什么呢\n是用通货膨胀来稀释债务\n这条路的逻辑是这样子的\n债务是明目金额\n借的时候写多少\n还的时候就还多少\n一分不少\n但是如果这期间物价涨了\n钱的购买力跌了呢\n举个例子\n30年前借你100块\n30年后如注奉还100块\n本金利息一分钱不差\n账面上清清白白了\n但是30年前的100块能买的东西\n和今天100块能买的东西\n是一回事吗\n差得远了\n债主拿回了全部的钱\n却拿不回全部的购买力\n差额去哪里了呢\n被通胀悄悄转移给了这个接款人\n前面说过\n付不付得出来钱和付出来的钱值多少钱\n是两回事\n说的就是这个道理\n二战之后\n美国那次成功的消化债务\n靠的其实是两条路\n一条路前面讲过了经济成长\n另外一条路呢\n就是温和的通胀加上人为压低利率\n让债主拿到的利息追不上物价\n在学术上这叫金融意志\n说白了\n就是让全体债主每年默默承受一点小损失\n几十年下来\n债整体上就轻了\n注意啊\n这条路的关键词是温和\n每年2%、3%的通货膨胀\n这个债主呢\n虽然吃亏\n但吃亏吃的不多\n也就忍了\n因为他们没有更好的地方\n可以去消化他们的这个储备\n但如果通货膨胀失控了呢\n就回到本篇开头的大陆币那个故事\n印钱印成了废纸\n所以美国走这条路啊\n走的就是一条钢丝绳\n稀释要是稀释的太慢了\n债务问题解决不了\n可是如果稀释的太快了\n债主是会集体跑掉的\n200年的信用就崩塌了\n那么第四种可能\n债主真的会跑掉吗\n这里就要修正第七个误解\n也是流量新闻最爱做的文章\n是什么呢\n某某国家抛售美债\n美元霸权崩溃在即\n是不是这样呢\n我们来看事实\n中国从2013年的最高点\n开始减持美债\n到今天已经减了一半以上\n占美债总量的比例\n已经从最高点的8%降到1.6%左右\n十几年美债崩了吗\n没有\n为什么呢\n回到前面我们所讲的那条河的那个画面\n美债市场上一天的交易量\n就是千亿美元的这个级别\n任何一个国家的减持\n摊到十几年里面\n也就是像从大河里面摇水\n河面\n连个水位变化都看不出来\n而且前面还讲过\n卖掉美债的钱\n它总得有地方去\n去哪了呢\n全世界仍然找不到第二个\n可以装得下那么多钱的地方\n所以真实世界正在发生的不是抛售\n而是另外一个慢得多\n但是更值得注意的过程\n就是全球其他国家的央行\n在逐年的增加黄金储备\n美元在全球外汇储备中的这个占比\n从20年前的7成以上\n缓慢降到了6成以下\n注意这个词\n缓慢但是持续\n这不是崩塌\n这是慢慢的侵蚀\n好\n我们把这四种可能性放在一起\n就能看清楚最后的景象了\n正面违约美国不会发生\n成长消化对美国来说有可能部分有效\n通胀息事这个债务正在进行\n每天都在进行\n而在这个过程中\n美债作为最安全的资产\n作为最大的储备\n它确实是在逐渐的被侵蚀\n这个过程也是在缓慢推进的\n所以回答美债最后会怎样\n答案大概率不会像很多人等着看的那种崩盘\n更大概率的剧本应该是这样\n利息占美国联邦的支出比例一年年上升\n会挤压国防教育科研\n这些能动的开支\n而美元的购买力呢\n一年年被稀释\n全世界的债主呢\n一边抱怨一边继续持有\n同时一点点的增加黄金和其他资产\n美国的建债成本\n美國的建債成本一年年的抬高,直到某一天,政治上不得不做出今天不願意去做的那個選擇就是加稅或者是宣解福利。要么呢,只能去接受更高的從長。\n这是一场漫长的所有人共同分担成本的消耗\n谁在分担这些成本呢\n是这些人\n第一呢持有美元的人分摊购买力的损失\n第二呢持有美债的人\n却分摊这个利息和通货膨胀的差额损失\n第三呢美国的纳税人分摊越来越重的利息支出\n你看这场全世界最大的债务游戏\n最后的买单方式不是某一方血本无归\n而是所有的参与方每年都被切走那薄薄的一片\n好 讲到这里关于美债的具体内容讲完了\n未来一段时间关于美债的新闻肯定还有很多\n那么我们怎么样来看待这个新闻\n让自己看得更明白呢\n有一套简单的过滤器叫三看三不看\n请注意这里的看的意思是特别关注的意思\n先说三个不用特别关注的\n三个不用看的\n第一 美债总额在创新高\n不用看\n这是一个永远在滚动增长的数字\n每个月都是历史新高\n真要看呢\n就看它和GDP的比例\n看利息和税收的比例\n比例才有信息量\n但是绝对数字并没有\n第二不用看的是\n债务上线又要谈判了\n美国要违约了\n不用紧张\n前面讲过\n这出戏呢\n从1960年代演到今天\n已经演了80次了\n结果全部都一样\n第三个不用看的是\n某国抛售美债\n也不用慌\n先去看一看\n它在美债总量里面的比例是多少\n再想想那条河的这个画面\n你就知道一般情况下是翻不起多大浪花的\n而三个真要看就是重点要关注的是什么呢\n第一看拍卖也就是美国国债的发行\n如果哪一天美国国债的这种发行出现明显的需求不足\n需要大幅提高利率才能勉强卖完甚至流标\n这就是真的信号\n因为这就意味着全世界每周一次的信任投票投出了不信任票\n第二要看美债的长期利率和通货膨胀的差是多少\n如果长期美债利率持续大幅高于通货膨胀和成长\n能解释的水平\n说明债主们开始要求不信任溢价了\n他们在用价格让美国来多出成本\n第三个要看的是看美债的利息\n占美国财政收入的比例\n这个数字每年都会公布\n要看它是稳定还是加速上升\n直接反映美债这条河的水位离警戒线还有多远\n这三个信号都有一个共同点\n它们都不是观点\n是价格和数据骗不了人\n新闻的标题可以夸张\n但是拍卖的结果它不会说谎\n好 这就是美债的完整故事了\n看懂了它\n你就看懂了现代国家信用的底层逻辑\n就再也不会被任何一条美债要崩\n某国的国债要崩\n这种标题牵着走了\n好 如果这期节目对你有帮助\n欢迎你订阅和转发\n如果大家支持我\n请你加入会员频道\n每个月有1到3期的会员专属节目\n我们下期再见", "language": "zh", "duration": 2425.579688, "segments": [ { "start": 0.0, "end": 26.4, "text": "假如有這麼一個人,常年欠錢,欠的還比自己賺得多,還天天見心還救,就是不肯把欠債還清。你覺得他會怎麼樣?常識不外乎是,銀行會把他列入黑名單,因為怕再借給他,本金就要血本無歸。債主也會天天盯著他還錢,生怕他哪天突然崩盤跑路。但是在國際金融市場,有這麼一個借款人,完全打破了這種常識。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1528202866854733, "no_speech_prob": 9.546425282225268e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3166666666666667, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 26.4, "end": 30.76, "text": "美国政府的欠债也是早就超过一年的GDP了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 30.76, "end": 33.06, "text": "欠债的绝对金额更是全球第一", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 33.06, "end": 35.1, "text": "还天天借金还旧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 35.1, "end": 36.92, "text": "就是不把欠债还清", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 36.92, "end": 39.6, "text": "可神奇的是没有人催他还钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 39.6, "end": 44.28, "text": "而且想借给他的钱比他想要借的还要多得多", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 44.28, "end": 46.1, "text": "全世界最聪明最有钱的人", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 46.1, "end": 47.96, "text": "甚至排着队要把钱借给他", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 47.96, "end": 49.68, "text": "这还不是一次两次", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 49.68, "end": 51.3, "text": "几十年都是这样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 51.3, "end": 52.92, "text": "这又是个什么逻辑呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 52.92, "end": 54.58, "text": "每次听到美国负债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11088443826312668, "no_speech_prob": 1.8485648775601327e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3505154639175259, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 54.58, "end": 57.92, "text": "几十万亿又创新高的这种新闻的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 57.92, "end": 60.6, "text": "你是不是都有一种困惑不解的感觉", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 60.6, "end": 63.86, "text": "新闻里面还经常说美债危险了危险了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 63.86, "end": 66.52, "text": "但是从来没有见谁催美国还钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 66.52, "end": 69.06, "text": "美国凭什么就能欠那么多债呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 69.06, "end": 70.76, "text": "借来的钱花哪去了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 70.76, "end": 73.72, "text": "就这么一直借就没有个上限的吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 73.72, "end": 76.38, "text": "真要这么一直借到最后它会怎么样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 76.38, "end": 78.54, "text": "今天我们就做一件事情", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 78.54, "end": 80.26, "text": "从最底层开始", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 80.26, "end": 83.34, "text": "把美债这种东西一层一层拆开来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 83.34, "end": 84.34, "text": "彻底讲清楚", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09043459306683457, "no_speech_prob": 1.4445463922263535e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4123376623376624, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 84.34, "end": 87.06, "text": "看完之后你不但能完整入门", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 87.06, "end": 89.98, "text": "而且呢再看到任何美债危机", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 89.98, "end": 91.88, "text": "美元崩溃的这一类的新闻", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 91.88, "end": 93.26, "text": "你自己就能判断", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 93.26, "end": 95.42, "text": "它是真问题还是骗点击", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 95.42, "end": 97.14, "text": "我们从第一层开始", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 97.14, "end": 99.74, "text": "美国国债到底是个什么东西", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 99.74, "end": 101.86, "text": "绝大多数谈美债的内容啊", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 101.86, "end": 103.0, "text": "它会跳过这一步", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 103.0, "end": 104.22, "text": "直接开始巴拉巴拉讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 104.22, "end": 105.86, "text": "结果呢观众听了半天", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 105.86, "end": 107.98, "text": "其实始终不明白自己在听什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 107.98, "end": 110.56, "text": "我们今天就从这个最基本的问题开始", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 110.56, "end": 113.1, "text": "任何一个国家每年都会有收入", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 113.1, "end": 114.16, "text": "主要是税收", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09512161549942269, "no_speech_prob": 1.3994901591762865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3880597014925373, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 114.16, "end": 115.86, "text": "每年也都会有支出", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 115.86, "end": 118.36, "text": "比如军费 社会保障 医疗等等", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 118.36, "end": 119.48, "text": "美国也这样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 119.48, "end": 120.68, "text": "而且长期以来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 120.68, "end": 123.66, "text": "美国每年都是支出大于收入", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 123.66, "end": 125.76, "text": "那东间这个差额怎么补呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 125.76, "end": 128.96, "text": "由财政部发债向市场借钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 128.96, "end": 130.62, "text": "那有些人心里会想", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 130.62, "end": 132.72, "text": "干嘛还发债借钱呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 132.72, "end": 134.28, "text": "直接印钱不更快吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 134.28, "end": 134.9, "text": "别笑", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 134.9, "end": 137.5, "text": "美国最早就是这么干的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 137.5, "end": 140.12, "text": "1775年美国独立战争开打", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 140.12, "end": 143.48, "text": "当时美国这边还是大陆议会在画市", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.138936591870857, "no_speech_prob": 1.7642429184228092e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.287162162162162, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 143.48, "end": 145.68, "text": "但是他刚成立没有税收", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 145.68, "end": 147.24, "text": "打仗又很花钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 147.24, "end": 150.6, "text": "于是大陆议会就选了一个最直接的办法", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 150.6, "end": 151.56, "text": "印钞票", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 151.56, "end": 153.46, "text": "一种叫做大陆币的纸币", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 153.46, "end": 154.52, "text": "结果呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 154.52, "end": 156.0, "text": "钞票越印越多", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 156.0, "end": 157.8, "text": "能买到的东西却没变多", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 157.8, "end": 160.42, "text": "大陆币购买力还一路下跌", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 160.42, "end": 162.32, "text": "几年之内就变成了废纸", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 162.32, "end": 164.44, "text": "当时美国人留下了一句骂人的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 164.44, "end": 166.68, "text": "叫连一张大陆币都不值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 166.68, "end": 169.02, "text": "这就是美国的第一个财政实验", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 169.02, "end": 171.52, "text": "结论是印钱这条路走不通", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09179670160466974, "no_speech_prob": 1.6185630960507957e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3535353535353536, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 171.52, "end": 173.74, "text": "财政试验虽然失败了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 173.74, "end": 175.46, "text": "但独立战争还是打赢了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 175.46, "end": 178.22, "text": "美国站稳脚关之后换了一条路", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 178.22, "end": 179.0, "text": "第二条路", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 179.0, "end": 180.74, "text": "第一任财政部长哈密尔顿", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 180.74, "end": 182.68, "text": "在1790年做了个决定", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 182.68, "end": 185.1, "text": "联邦政府把各州打仗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 185.1, "end": 187.82, "text": "欠下来的债全部接手过来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 187.82, "end": 190.32, "text": "并且按照借条上的原始金额", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 190.32, "end": 192.28, "text": "一分不少的全额承认", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 192.28, "end": 193.86, "text": "按时付利息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 193.86, "end": 195.64, "text": "当时很多人就反对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 195.64, "end": 197.8, "text": "因为全额还债的负担很重", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 197.8, "end": 199.48, "text": "但是哈密尔顿的理由是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 199.48, "end": 200.86, "text": "一个国家新成立", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11358124447852067, "no_speech_prob": 1.3204383766951544e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3037974683544304, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 200.86, "end": 204.06, "text": "最值钱的东西是借钱必还的这个信用", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 204.06, "end": 206.74, "text": "有了信用以后才能永远借到钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 206.74, "end": 208.98, "text": "而且借的还便宜", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 208.98, "end": 209.4, "text": "看到没有", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 209.4, "end": 211.86, "text": "美国建国之初就试了两条路", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 211.86, "end": 214.18, "text": "一条路呢印钱印成了废纸", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 214.18, "end": 217.04, "text": "另一条路还债还还出了信用", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 217.04, "end": 218.2, "text": "之后两百多年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 218.2, "end": 220.2, "text": "美国基本上就沿着这第二条路走的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 220.2, "end": 222.34, "text": "就是借钱还钱还债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 222.34, "end": 223.58, "text": "记住这个对比", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 223.58, "end": 225.32, "text": "后面我们还会讲到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 225.32, "end": 229.04, "text": "那么美国联邦政府的债券具体是个什么呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11893315542311896, "no_speech_prob": 1.5779356987710713e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 229.04, "end": 231.62, "text": "其实就是一份标准化的借条", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 231.62, "end": 233.04, "text": "上面写了三样东西", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 233.04, "end": 236.08, "text": "第一是面额债主借出多少钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 236.08, "end": 237.5, "text": "第二就是到期日", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 237.5, "end": 239.72, "text": "就是美国政府什么时候把这个本金还给你", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 239.72, "end": 241.22, "text": "第三就是利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 241.22, "end": 244.3, "text": "在这个期间每年付给债主多少利息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 244.3, "end": 248.34, "text": "这种借据借条按时间长短分为三类", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 248.34, "end": 250.46, "text": "一年以内的叫国库券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 250.46, "end": 252.92, "text": "两年到十年的叫票据", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 252.92, "end": 256.14, "text": "二十年到三十年的叫长期债券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 256.14, "end": 259.02, "text": "那么这些债券是怎么卖出去的呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0965110392658257, "no_speech_prob": 1.3829007383669989e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4577464788732395, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 259.02, "end": 260.04, "text": "公开拍卖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 260.04, "end": 261.64, "text": "每个星期都在进行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 261.64, "end": 264.56, "text": "全世界的银行基金政府都可以出价", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 264.56, "end": 266.42, "text": "出价的方式是报利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 266.42, "end": 268.1, "text": "谁报的利率低", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 268.1, "end": 269.66, "text": "就等于他收的利息少", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 269.66, "end": 271.46, "text": "债券就优先卖给他", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 271.46, "end": 273.0, "text": "债主买到这个债券之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 273.0, "end": 274.46, "text": "就按期收利息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 274.46, "end": 276.04, "text": "到期了就收本金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 276.04, "end": 278.14, "text": "那债主要是没到期", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 278.14, "end": 279.46, "text": "中毒想退出了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 279.46, "end": 280.0, "text": "可以吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 280.0, "end": 282.72, "text": "可以随时债券都可以转卖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 282.72, "end": 284.46, "text": "市场上每一天的交易量", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 284.46, "end": 285.72, "text": "以千亿美元计算", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 285.72, "end": 287.46, "text": "随时都能转手卖掉", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 287.46, "end": 288.42, "text": "但是注意", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10789192159762558, "no_speech_prob": 1.3903789577995873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.42320819112628, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 288.42, "end": 291.44, "text": "债主中途转手卖的这个价格", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 291.44, "end": 294.44, "text": "可能就不一定是买入时候的价格了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 294.44, "end": 295.4, "text": "打个比方", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 295.4, "end": 297.58, "text": "比如你花100块钱买了一张债券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 297.58, "end": 299.6, "text": "每年利息美国给你两块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 299.6, "end": 301.42, "text": "但是过了一年市场变了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 301.42, "end": 303.24, "text": "政府发了一批新的债券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 303.24, "end": 304.32, "text": "同样是100块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 304.32, "end": 306.06, "text": "每年付利息4块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 306.06, "end": 307.08, "text": "这个时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 307.08, "end": 310.02, "text": "你要想把手里面的旧债券卖掉", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 310.02, "end": 310.68, "text": "问题就来了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 310.68, "end": 312.48, "text": "谁会用同样的100块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 312.48, "end": 316.38, "text": "去买一张每年只给2块钱利息的旧债券呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 316.38, "end": 317.48, "text": "没有人买", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 317.48, "end": 318.0, "text": "那怎么办", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08850357468063767, "no_speech_prob": 1.1933120290519295e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4452054794520548, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 318.0, "end": 319.34, "text": "只能打折卖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 319.34, "end": 320.62, "text": "打折到什么程度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 320.62, "end": 323.46, "text": "打折到买这张旧债券的人", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 323.46, "end": 326.36, "text": "算下来的回报和买现在的新债券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 326.36, "end": 327.86, "text": "差不多才会有人接手", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 327.86, "end": 330.82, "text": "这就是债券市场上的一条铁律", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 330.82, "end": 333.22, "text": "市场利率要是上升了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 333.22, "end": 336.48, "text": "已经发行的低利率的旧债券就会跌价", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 336.48, "end": 337.66, "text": "反过来也成立", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 337.66, "end": 339.1, "text": "政府发的新债券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 339.1, "end": 341.16, "text": "一年给不到两块钱的利息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 341.16, "end": 342.5, "text": "只能给到一块五了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 342.5, "end": 346.1, "text": "那么你原来买的那张两块钱利息的旧债券", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07944735516323133, "no_speech_prob": 1.5079798521000498e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4833948339483394, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 346.1, "end": 347.9, "text": "它就值钱了 涨价了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 347.9, "end": 350.08, "text": "这就是市场利率下降", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 350.08, "end": 353.34, "text": "原本高利率的旧债券就涨价了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 353.34, "end": 355.16, "text": "方向永远是相反的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 355.16, "end": 356.34, "text": "这一条很重要", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 356.34, "end": 358.22, "text": "要记住 一会儿我们也会用到它", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 358.22, "end": 359.88, "text": "好 讲到这里", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 359.88, "end": 362.24, "text": "就可以修正美债的第一个流行误解了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 362.24, "end": 365.56, "text": "一般人认为美债签40兆40万亿", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 365.56, "end": 366.72, "text": "只是一笔借款", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 366.72, "end": 367.92, "text": "只有一个债主", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 367.92, "end": 369.9, "text": "一张借条 一个还款日", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 369.9, "end": 370.52, "text": "不对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 370.52, "end": 374.1, "text": "其实它是几万期债券的总和", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14394599869406435, "no_speech_prob": 2.0860067145855865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3194444444444444, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 374.1, "end": 377.3, "text": "每一期都有自己的面额利率和到期日", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 377.3, "end": 381.04, "text": "就是每个星期都有旧债到期新债发出", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 381.04, "end": 382.16, "text": "这像什么呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 382.16, "end": 385.0, "text": "想象一个画面就像一条流动的河", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 385.0, "end": 388.5, "text": "美债就像一条水量充沛滔滔不绝的河", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 388.5, "end": 389.8, "text": "请你记住这个画面", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 389.8, "end": 391.08, "text": "有了这个印象", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 391.08, "end": 393.24, "text": "后面的很多事就能很快理解了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 393.24, "end": 394.7, "text": "那么下一个问题来了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 394.7, "end": 397.66, "text": "这个几万期的债券都在谁的手里呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 397.66, "end": 399.64, "text": "也就是债主都有谁呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 399.64, "end": 400.98, "text": "来看这个结构", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11338910516702903, "no_speech_prob": 1.4558156763433416e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.450909090909091, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 400.98, "end": 404.88, "text": "大约两成在美国政府自己的内部账户里", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 404.88, "end": 407.1, "text": "主要是社会安全信托基金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 407.1, "end": 409.64, "text": "直白的说就是美国人的退休金体系", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 409.64, "end": 412.88, "text": "依法把节余的钱买成了国债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 412.88, "end": 414.76, "text": "这部分占两成", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 414.76, "end": 416.76, "text": "另外一成在美国的中央银行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 416.76, "end": 419.34, "text": "也就是联准会或者叫美联储手里", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 419.34, "end": 420.54, "text": "另外四成五左右", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 420.54, "end": 423.14, "text": "在美国国内的共同基金退休基金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 423.14, "end": 425.16, "text": "银行保险公司手里面", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 425.16, "end": 427.98, "text": "那么把这美国国内这三块加起来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 427.98, "end": 429.36, "text": "美债的七成以上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09119637622389683, "no_speech_prob": 1.1935307776822501e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4425087108013936, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 429.36, "end": 431.42, "text": "债主是美国自己的体系", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 431.42, "end": 433.38, "text": "剩下不到四分之一", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 433.38, "end": 434.68, "text": "才是外国持有", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 434.68, "end": 435.9, "text": "哪些外国呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 435.9, "end": 437.24, "text": "到2026年8月", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 437.24, "end": 438.7, "text": "持债最多的第一是日本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 438.7, "end": 439.82, "text": "第二是英国", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 439.82, "end": 441.46, "text": "然后才是中国", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 441.46, "end": 442.34, "text": "而且呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 442.34, "end": 446.08, "text": "中国的持仓已经降到美债的总量的1.6%左右", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 446.08, "end": 448.0, "text": "是十几年来的最低点", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 448.0, "end": 448.74, "text": "另外", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 448.74, "end": 451.78, "text": "台湾畏惧全球前十大债主", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 451.78, "end": 453.18, "text": "香港紧随前后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 453.18, "end": 454.58, "text": "所以很多人第一印象", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 454.58, "end": 456.42, "text": "美国的债主要是欠中国的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 456.42, "end": 457.64, "text": "现在要修正了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13882312660445711, "no_speech_prob": 1.6495953908401972e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3402061855670102, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 457.64, "end": 460.18, "text": "十几年前的2013年可以这么说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1326712171236674, "no_speech_prob": 9.294437615381401e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9080459770114943, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 460.18, "end": 462.4, "text": "那么今天的名单已经不是这样了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1326712171236674, "no_speech_prob": 9.294437615381401e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9080459770114943, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 477.673, "end": 480.993, "text": "如果是旧债到期了 美国政府立刻就会发一笔新债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 480.993, "end": 484.833, "text": "用新借来的钱来还旧债的欠款", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 484.833, "end": 488.033, "text": "通俗的说就是发新债还旧债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 488.033, "end": 490.733, "text": "你看这个设计 欠款还了吗 还了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 490.733, "end": 492.513, "text": "钱怎么来的呢 借来的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 492.513, "end": 494.833, "text": "旧债还掉的同时背上了新债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 494.833, "end": 499.433, "text": "欠债一分没少 从上一期债券滚动到下一期债券", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 499.433, "end": 503.393, "text": "就像永远在这个河里面流动 永远不需要上岸", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 503.393, "end": 507.113, "text": "那政府一分钱都不用掏吗 也不是 是要付利息的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1515432615537901, "no_speech_prob": 3.603257969775342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4705882352941178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 507.113, "end": 509.933, "text": "旧债的本金虽然可以用新债来替上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 509.933, "end": 511.973, "text": "但是这个利息是要付出去的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 511.973, "end": 513.513, "text": "而且利息每年都要付", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 514.033, "end": 516.073, "text": "新债产生了滚动下去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 516.073, "end": 518.113, "text": "但利息要是也不想付呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 518.373, "end": 518.893, "text": "也可以", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 518.893, "end": 520.433, "text": "那就把本金利息算在一块", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 520.673, "end": 521.713, "text": "再发一笔新债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 522.473, "end": 523.493, "text": "听起来像骗局对吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 523.753, "end": 526.833, "text": "但是全世界所有的国家都是这套标准的玩法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 527.073, "end": 528.873, "text": "英国的国债从200年前", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 529.133, "end": 530.153, "text": "拿破仑战争时期", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 530.413, "end": 531.693, "text": "一路滚动到今天", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 531.953, "end": 532.713, "text": "还在照常运行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 533.233, "end": 535.013, "text": "日本 德国 法国全都如此", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 535.273, "end": 536.553, "text": "美债当然也一样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11711771347943474, "no_speech_prob": 1.9141422821777887e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3808049535603715, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 536.553, "end": 539.633, "text": "全世界没有任何一个主要经济体在还清国债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 539.633, "end": 541.933, "text": "也没有任何债主要求他们还清", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 541.933, "end": 544.993, "text": "是不是听着听着突然一种心动的感觉", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 544.993, "end": 546.793, "text": "我是不是也可以这么玩", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 546.793, "end": 549.093, "text": "一直借薪还救这多好啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 549.093, "end": 551.153, "text": "讲多了 普通人做不到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 551.153, "end": 553.713, "text": "为什么普通人做不到 政府却可以呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 553.713, "end": 555.753, "text": "这里有三个结构性的差异", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 555.753, "end": 557.033, "text": "第一是寿命", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 557.033, "end": 559.593, "text": "人哪怕再长寿也是会死的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 559.593, "end": 561.633, "text": "所以银行给个人的房贷", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 561.633, "end": 564.193, "text": "必须在个人有生之年还清", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 564.193, "end": 565.473, "text": "其他贷款也这样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1348911239987328, "no_speech_prob": 2.1767736918532066e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.429032258064516, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 565.473, "end": 567.393, "text": "但是政府是没有说明的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 567.393, "end": 569.153, "text": "今年有税收 明年有税收", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 569.153, "end": 570.553, "text": "一百年后还有税收", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 570.553, "end": 574.753, "text": "债主面对的是一个理论上永远存在的收入来源", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 574.753, "end": 577.933, "text": "所以债务是可以永远的滚动下去的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 577.933, "end": 579.353, "text": "只要利息付得出来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 579.353, "end": 581.673, "text": "第二个结构性差异 收入", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 581.673, "end": 583.793, "text": "个人的薪水是老板定的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 583.793, "end": 585.273, "text": "不能自己给自己加薪", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 585.273, "end": 587.673, "text": "但政府有正税权", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 587.673, "end": 589.073, "text": "他想要增加收入", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 589.073, "end": 590.253, "text": "只要法律上通得过", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 590.253, "end": 591.813, "text": "就可以自己加税", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 591.813, "end": 593.833, "text": "债主借钱给个人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12082280551686006, "no_speech_prob": 1.9676274498614532e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4539007092198581, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 593.833, "end": 595.873, "text": "是看他现在的收入还不还得起", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 595.873, "end": 597.473, "text": "但借钱给政府呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 597.473, "end": 600.873, "text": "看的是整个国家现在和未来的征税能力", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 600.873, "end": 603.733, "text": "第三个结构性的区别也是最关键的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 603.733, "end": 605.933, "text": "美国国债是由美元计价的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 605.933, "end": 608.133, "text": "而美元由美国自己发行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 608.133, "end": 611.193, "text": "也就是美国能自己印钱来还美债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 611.193, "end": 613.493, "text": "但个人欠银行欠债主的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 613.493, "end": 615.173, "text": "你个人可印不出钱来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 615.173, "end": 617.473, "text": "这就意味着在技术层面上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 617.473, "end": 619.493, "text": "美国永远不会拿不出钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 619.493, "end": 620.733, "text": "但是请注意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 620.733, "end": 622.273, "text": "付不付得出来这笔钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17002278908915902, "no_speech_prob": 1.791303910758657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4440677966101696, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 622.273, "end": 624.673, "text": "和付出来的这笔钱还值多少钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 624.973, "end": 625.673, "text": "是两回事", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 626.073, "end": 627.613, "text": "后面你会看得更清楚一些", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 628.273, "end": 629.973, "text": "那既然美国能自己印美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 630.073, "end": 632.313, "text": "为什么不一把印出来全部还清呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 632.673, "end": 633.873, "text": "还记得我们前面说过吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 633.933, "end": 636.033, "text": "印钱太多钱就变成废纸了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 636.373, "end": 638.573, "text": "那欠债就一直不还清吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 638.913, "end": 641.033, "text": "没错就是一直不还清", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 641.313, "end": 643.413, "text": "他从一开始就没想着要还清", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 643.733, "end": 646.473, "text": "还是哈密尔顿他在设计这套体系的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 646.533, "end": 648.173, "text": "第一天就说的很直白", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 648.573, "end": 650.573, "text": "一笔规模适度的国债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1868401151714903, "no_speech_prob": 2.0358969718414777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3504823151125402, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 650.573, "end": 652.533, "text": "对国家来说不是负担是好处", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 652.533, "end": 655.653, "text": "因为它给了全国的资金一个安全的去处", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 655.653, "end": 658.253, "text": "也让政府和市场紧紧的绑在一起", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 658.253, "end": 662.093, "text": "不还清不是这套体系200年之后堕落了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 662.093, "end": 664.813, "text": "而是出厂设定它就是这么设定的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 664.813, "end": 666.613, "text": "那有观众会说那不行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 666.613, "end": 669.333, "text": "我处女座强迫症不还清我不舒服", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 669.333, "end": 670.293, "text": "没问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 670.293, "end": 672.333, "text": "美国历史上也有这样的总统", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 672.333, "end": 674.573, "text": "还真的把国债就还清了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 674.573, "end": 678.733, "text": "1835年东方还是大清皇上还是道光", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19688613156238235, "no_speech_prob": 1.9671866566262075e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326797385620915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 678.733, "end": 681.353, "text": "美国这边的总统是杰克逊总统", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 681.353, "end": 683.673, "text": "一把他就把国债给归零了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 683.673, "end": 687.533, "text": "这个无债一身轻的状态维持了大约一年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 687.533, "end": 691.113, "text": "很快美国就陷入了严重的金融危机和经济萧条", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 691.113, "end": 694.633, "text": "政府收入锐减债务很快又回来了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 694.633, "end": 695.753, "text": "不过要说一句", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 695.753, "end": 698.873, "text": "是不是因为还清国债导致了这个萧条", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 698.873, "end": 700.113, "text": "这个原因更复杂", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 700.113, "end": 701.933, "text": "以后有机会我们再详细展开讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 701.933, "end": 703.853, "text": "但是有一个事实是确定的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 703.853, "end": 705.373, "text": "国债清零这件事情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 705.373, "end": 707.973, "text": "美国历史上总共只存在了一年左右", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0962986167596311, "no_speech_prob": 2.3257784587116248e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3981481481481481, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 707.973, "end": 712.193, "text": "而美国建国250年除了这一年左右之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 712.193, "end": 715.733, "text": "再也没有人把还清国债当成美国自己的目标", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 715.733, "end": 718.713, "text": "好 既然美国一直欠扯那么多债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 718.713, "end": 723.413, "text": "全世界为什么还心甘情愿几十年如一日的买这个债券呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 723.413, "end": 726.473, "text": "不借钱给美国不买美国国债不行吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 726.473, "end": 728.973, "text": "好问题 不买还真不行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 728.973, "end": 731.833, "text": "但这个不行不是谁下的命令", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 731.833, "end": 733.813, "text": "也不是哪条法律规定的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 733.813, "end": 737.693, "text": "而是历史发展到这一步走出来的一个必然结果", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10555930137634277, "no_speech_prob": 1.7554234107985955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3462783171521036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 737.693, "end": 741.593, "text": "1944年第二次世界大战终于快打完了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 741.593, "end": 744.233, "text": "40多个国家派了代表到美国开会", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 744.233, "end": 745.133, "text": "开什么会呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 745.133, "end": 747.873, "text": "讨论战后全球货币秩序的会", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 747.873, "end": 750.053, "text": "为什么要讨论全球货币秩序呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 750.053, "end": 751.313, "text": "因为在过去几十年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 751.313, "end": 754.293, "text": "世界各国不但用坦克飞机大炮互相打仗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 754.293, "end": 756.233, "text": "在经济上也是互相打", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 756.233, "end": 757.373, "text": "怎么互相打的呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 757.373, "end": 758.833, "text": "要么是防守", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 758.833, "end": 761.293, "text": "互相对别国疯狂的加关税", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 761.293, "end": 763.473, "text": "让别国货物进不来本国", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 763.473, "end": 764.793, "text": "这就是贸易保护主义", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 764.793, "end": 766.033, "text": "要么就是进攻", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07025594661890534, "no_speech_prob": 1.490688995853251e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400662251655629, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 766.033, "end": 767.953, "text": "让本国货币疯狂的贬值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 767.953, "end": 770.573, "text": "为什么本国货币贬值是进攻呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 770.573, "end": 772.053, "text": "比如我们举个例子", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 772.053, "end": 773.973, "text": "英国把英镑贬值了10%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 773.973, "end": 777.733, "text": "那么这一下子英国商品卖到法国去就变便宜了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 777.733, "end": 780.753, "text": "法国一看这么多英国货杀到我法国来了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 780.753, "end": 782.093, "text": "他也就有样学样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 782.093, "end": 784.173, "text": "把法郎贬值20%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 784.173, "end": 786.793, "text": "那么法国货又杀回英国去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 786.793, "end": 788.533, "text": "大家就这样互相伤害", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 788.533, "end": 789.853, "text": "结果是什么呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 789.853, "end": 792.353, "text": "是谁也不敢持有对方的货币", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 792.353, "end": 793.573, "text": "因为睡一觉醒来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11782461946660822, "no_speech_prob": 1.631656615375121e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.411149825783972, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 793.573, "end": 796.653, "text": "很可能就贬值了10% 20%甚至贬成废纸了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 796.653, "end": 799.653, "text": "那么最后大家都意识到不能再这样下去了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 799.653, "end": 800.653, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 800.653, "end": 802.933, "text": "既然信不过英镑也信不过法郎", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 802.933, "end": 805.293, "text": "就必须要找一个大家都信得过", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 805.293, "end": 808.593, "text": "而且绝对不会随便贬值的东西往那儿一定", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 808.593, "end": 809.993, "text": "就像个毛一样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 809.993, "end": 811.653, "text": "毛定了大家好参考", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 811.653, "end": 813.953, "text": "这时候是1944年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 813.953, "end": 815.673, "text": "欧洲已经被打得稀巴烂", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 815.673, "end": 818.193, "text": "亚洲和北非那也是战火纷飞", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 818.193, "end": 819.453, "text": "只有美国最安全", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 819.453, "end": 821.473, "text": "因为它离战场最远", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1126488591894249, "no_speech_prob": 3.07027701873519e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3024691358024691, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 821.473, "end": 824.673, "text": "他还趁机卖粮食卖军火卖物资给各国", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 824.673, "end": 825.453, "text": "直收黄金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 825.453, "end": 829.573, "text": "所以呢全球大约70%到80%的黄金都到了美国", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 829.573, "end": 831.113, "text": "藏在美国的金库里", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 831.113, "end": 832.853, "text": "美国就说啊既然这样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 832.853, "end": 836.193, "text": "我美元就来做这个你们参照的这个毛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 836.193, "end": 839.633, "text": "你们各国货币全部给我美元挂钩", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 839.633, "end": 841.193, "text": "而我的美元呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 841.193, "end": 844.373, "text": "直接跟我们美国金库里面的黄金死死绑定", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 844.373, "end": 847.193, "text": "每35美元就等于1盎司黄金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 847.193, "end": 849.753, "text": "任何人只要拿着35美元来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1211716470542861, "no_speech_prob": 2.535770725342612e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3900709219858156, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 849.753, "end": 851.853, "text": "就随时兑换给你一盎司黄金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 851.853, "end": 853.893, "text": "各国讨论来讨论去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 853.893, "end": 855.333, "text": "讨论了20多天最后发现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 855.333, "end": 857.873, "text": "能找到的最好的办法也就是这样了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 857.873, "end": 858.973, "text": "于是就都同意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 858.973, "end": 862.173, "text": "这就是历史上著名的美元挂钩黄金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 862.173, "end": 865.093, "text": "各国货币又去挂钩美元这个制度", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 865.093, "end": 867.633, "text": "因为开会的地点叫布雷顿森林", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 867.633, "end": 870.653, "text": "所以这一套新制度就叫做布雷顿森林体系", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 870.653, "end": 872.933, "text": "台湾翻译叫布雷顿森林体系", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 872.933, "end": 876.713, "text": "这个制度很快带来了一连串的连锁反应", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 876.713, "end": 877.573, "text": "二战打完之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 877.573, "end": 879.113, "text": "全球贸易恢复了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07906165350051153, "no_speech_prob": 2.1606518657568685e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4679487179487178, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 879.113, "end": 881.393, "text": "各国又开始互相做进口生意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 881.393, "end": 882.573, "text": "做出口生意做买卖", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 882.573, "end": 883.953, "text": "做着做着就发现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 883.953, "end": 885.973, "text": "虽然我英镑法兰日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 885.973, "end": 888.813, "text": "还有巴西的雷亚尔都跟美元挂钩了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 888.813, "end": 890.113, "text": "但是到了结算的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 890.113, "end": 891.633, "text": "还是得用美元结算", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 891.633, "end": 893.633, "text": "因为对方只收美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 893.633, "end": 896.373, "text": "因为美元是直接挂钩黄金的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 896.373, "end": 897.973, "text": "那轮到我来收钱的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 897.973, "end": 899.273, "text": "我当然也只收美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 899.273, "end": 902.013, "text": "一来二去市场上绝大部分货币", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 902.013, "end": 903.033, "text": "它都是美元了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 903.033, "end": 905.373, "text": "各国口袋里的美元也越来越多", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 905.373, "end": 907.273, "text": "就这么过了十几二十年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 907.273, "end": 908.733, "text": "有一个金鸣", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10650238861908784, "no_speech_prob": 1.7164868484909057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.457142857142857, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 908.733, "end": 910.913, "text": "而且多疑的人意识到了不对劲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 910.913, "end": 914.453, "text": "他发现美国在全世界发行的美元数量", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 914.453, "end": 918.053, "text": "已经超过了美国金库黄金的总价值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 918.053, "end": 919.573, "text": "这个人是谁呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 919.573, "end": 921.673, "text": "是当时法国的总统戴高乐", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 921.673, "end": 923.173, "text": "戴高乐就对美国说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 923.173, "end": 924.673, "text": "我法国不要美元了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 924.673, "end": 926.033, "text": "我们要对回黄金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359915733337402, "no_speech_prob": 1.6688211576521006e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.305699481865285, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 926.505, "end": 932.505, "text": "那這件事情到底是戴高樂的猜測還是真相就如此呢?答案是後者。", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14790714650914288, "no_speech_prob": 9.009098154988404e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3456375838926173, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 932.505, "end": 938.505, "text": "美國1960年代對外呢大越戰,對內呢大撒幣大搞福利,花錢花超了,", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14790714650914288, "no_speech_prob": 9.009098154988404e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3456375838926173, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 938.505, "end": 943.005, "text": "只好偷偷的开动机器印钱 白嫖大家的黄金白银", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 943.005, "end": 946.505, "text": "这种事只要一个人知道 等于全世界都知道了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 946.505, "end": 949.505, "text": "结果呢 你对黄金 我也对黄金几年下来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 949.505, "end": 951.505, "text": "就把美国的黄金都快对没了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 951.505, "end": 955.505, "text": "也看这个挂钩黄金的布雷顿森林体系要完", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 955.505, "end": 959.505, "text": "美国人也是眼疾手快 立刻又盯上了另一样好东西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 959.505, "end": 961.505, "text": "是什么呢 石油", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 961.505, "end": 966.505, "text": "1974年 美国和全球最大的石油出口国沙特 沙乌地阿拉伯", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1122364860049562, "no_speech_prob": 3.632127237862548e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 966.505, "end": 968.665, "text": "阿乌地阿拉伯秘密谈成了协议", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 968.665, "end": 972.645, "text": "美国出武器出军队保护沙特阿拉伯", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 972.645, "end": 975.045, "text": "而这个沙特阿拉伯的所有的石油呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 975.045, "end": 976.785, "text": "必须用美元结算", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 976.785, "end": 978.825, "text": "沙特立刻就答应了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 978.825, "end": 979.905, "text": "他一答应", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 979.905, "end": 982.785, "text": "整个石油输出国组织就纷纷跟着答应", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 982.785, "end": 983.585, "text": "从此呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 983.585, "end": 985.125, "text": "全世界任何一个国家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 985.125, "end": 986.305, "text": "只要想开工厂", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 986.305, "end": 987.145, "text": "开汽车", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 987.145, "end": 987.785, "text": "发电", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 987.785, "end": 989.505, "text": "你就必须得买石油", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 989.505, "end": 991.705, "text": "而买石油就必须用美元来结算", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 991.705, "end": 992.725, "text": "结果呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 992.725, "end": 995.425, "text": "全球贸易还得继续用美元结算", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 995.425, "end": 996.225, "text": "而且呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12658508377845842, "no_speech_prob": 5.323406992996382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4894366197183098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 996.225, "end": 1001.025, "text": "出口强的国家比如东亚这几个收进来的美元比付出去的美元多", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1001.025, "end": 1004.785, "text": "美元就年复一年趴在这个国家的银行的账上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1004.785, "end": 1007.945, "text": "这笔积累起来的美元就叫做外汇储备", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1007.945, "end": 1011.205, "text": "那你可能会问为什么一定要储备美元呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1011.205, "end": 1014.805, "text": "生意一结束就把美元换成我自己的货币那不是更好吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1014.805, "end": 1016.105, "text": "行倒是行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1016.105, "end": 1019.205, "text": "但是一个国家的全球生意哪里有结束的时候呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1019.205, "end": 1022.885, "text": "又有哪个国家可以全部出口不进口任何一点东西呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1022.885, "end": 1025.785, "text": "一旦生意结束的时候要是换回自己的货币", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08842046968229525, "no_speech_prob": 1.736267553342774e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5660377358490567, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1025.785, "end": 1028.465, "text": "那么下一单生意的时候岂不是又得换回来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1028.465, "end": 1030.085, "text": "还要两笔手续费", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1030.085, "end": 1034.485, "text": "所以任何一个国家只要有进口站上就必须要储备美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1034.485, "end": 1038.785, "text": "而国际贸易做得越大的国家外汇储备必然就越多", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1038.785, "end": 1043.865, "text": "外汇储备它就是一种保证进口确保收支结算的工具", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1043.865, "end": 1046.765, "text": "美元还有第二个功能保卫汇率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1046.765, "end": 1049.525, "text": "当一个国家的货币被市场大量抛售", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1049.525, "end": 1051.465, "text": "对外价值急速下跌的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1051.465, "end": 1054.765, "text": "这个国家唯一能做的事情就是动用它的外汇储备", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08148099045727135, "no_speech_prob": 1.5860866439676435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4472843450479234, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1054.765, "end": 1057.445, "text": "在市场上把自己的货币给买回来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1057.445, "end": 1059.205, "text": "那么市场经济的规律就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1059.205, "end": 1061.145, "text": "卖的多价格就便宜", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1061.145, "end": 1063.285, "text": "买的多呢价格就回来了就高", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1063.285, "end": 1065.465, "text": "关键时刻用这个外汇储备", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1065.465, "end": 1067.885, "text": "也就是美元买回自家的货币", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1067.885, "end": 1069.965, "text": "就能撑住自家货币的价格", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1069.965, "end": 1071.705, "text": "这个美元储备有多少", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1071.705, "end": 1073.885, "text": "就决定着这条防线有多深", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1073.885, "end": 1075.985, "text": "好看到这里你知道了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1075.985, "end": 1077.365, "text": "外汇储备果然很重要", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1077.365, "end": 1080.385, "text": "也是全国人民辛辛苦苦出口赚来的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1080.385, "end": 1083.185, "text": "那咱们就好好锁在自己国家的银行金库里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1083.185, "end": 1084.365, "text": "要用的时候就拿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09999471635960822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4972880574282144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.48125, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1084.365, "end": 1086.125, "text": "这不是最安全最省事吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1086.125, "end": 1088.945, "text": "为什么非得要拿去买美国的国债呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1088.945, "end": 1091.965, "text": "锁在自己银行的金库里面行倒是行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1091.965, "end": 1093.005, "text": "可是这样一来呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1093.005, "end": 1095.805, "text": "这样大的一笔外汇就没有利息了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1095.805, "end": 1098.305, "text": "哪怕有吃的也是自家的利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1098.305, "end": 1100.425, "text": "而且别忘了还有个通货膨胀", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1100.425, "end": 1103.765, "text": "假设全球每一年平均的通货膨胀是3%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1103.765, "end": 1105.645, "text": "那么1000亿美元的外汇", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1105.645, "end": 1107.705, "text": "如果锁在自家的银行不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1107.705, "end": 1110.125, "text": "美国一年它的实质购买力", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1110.125, "end": 1113.045, "text": "就会凭空的蒸发掉30亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1030487355606332, "no_speech_prob": 2.2214622502625403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1113.045, "end": 1114.645, "text": "那这样肯定不行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1114.645, "end": 1116.685, "text": "我得存到别国银行去", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1116.685, "end": 1118.025, "text": "去吃他家的利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1118.025, "end": 1120.465, "text": "你这样想别的国家也这么想", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1120.465, "end": 1122.245, "text": "那么多国家那么多外汇", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1122.245, "end": 1124.985, "text": "于是都想存到某一个银行去", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1124.985, "end": 1126.505, "text": "去吃他家的利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1126.505, "end": 1128.685, "text": "可是世界上哪一家银行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1128.685, "end": 1131.205, "text": "装得下这么多美元的外汇储备呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1131.205, "end": 1132.905, "text": "看来看去最后发现", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1132.905, "end": 1135.285, "text": "只有美债市场这条河", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1135.285, "end": 1136.345, "text": "它能装得下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1136.345, "end": 1137.805, "text": "还记得我们前面说的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1137.805, "end": 1138.785, "text": "河这个比喻吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1138.785, "end": 1140.925, "text": "只有这条不断流动的河", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1140.925, "end": 1142.005, "text": "它能装得下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09986116621229384, "no_speech_prob": 1.456925378950924e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5384615384615385, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1142.005, "end": 1144.885, "text": "第一 美债市场规模足够大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1144.885, "end": 1146.365, "text": "截止到2026年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1146.365, "end": 1149.685, "text": "美国的国债市场的规模高达40万亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1149.685, "end": 1151.525, "text": "全世界的储备加起来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1151.525, "end": 1153.325, "text": "也才十几万亿的量级", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1153.325, "end": 1155.765, "text": "所以美债市场这条大河装得下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1155.765, "end": 1157.525, "text": "第二 随时能变现", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1157.525, "end": 1159.825, "text": "金融危机以来是一小时计算的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1159.825, "end": 1161.985, "text": "资产必须能立刻卖掉变成现金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1161.985, "end": 1163.685, "text": "而且一次卖几百亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1163.685, "end": 1164.685, "text": "价格还不能崩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1164.685, "end": 1167.125, "text": "前面说过 美债市场的规模大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1167.125, "end": 1168.945, "text": "就像一条大河水量充足", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1168.945, "end": 1171.705, "text": "每天的交易量是千亿级的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10436380256726904, "no_speech_prob": 1.6118642878759637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1171.705, "end": 1174.945, "text": "你哪怕连续几天抽走个几百亿上千亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1174.945, "end": 1177.245, "text": "也就是1%到2的这个量级", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1177.245, "end": 1179.085, "text": "它的价格不会剧烈变化", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1179.085, "end": 1180.725, "text": "第三是法律上可靠", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1180.725, "end": 1182.585, "text": "放在美债市场里面的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1182.585, "end": 1183.445, "text": "不会被冻结", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1183.445, "end": 1185.245, "text": "不会被限制转出", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1185.245, "end": 1186.205, "text": "第四呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1186.205, "end": 1187.745, "text": "还能给你吃利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1187.745, "end": 1190.145, "text": "那么全世界其他选项呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1190.145, "end": 1191.245, "text": "我们一个一个来看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1191.245, "end": 1194.585, "text": "看看有没有达到美债这么好使这个量级的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1194.585, "end": 1195.925, "text": "先看德国国债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1195.925, "end": 1197.245, "text": "信用虽然是一流的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1197.245, "end": 1199.385, "text": "但是德国政府借钱太节制了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1199.385, "end": 1200.445, "text": "发的债太少", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10381658615604523, "no_speech_prob": 1.706748457841467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3322981366459627, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1200.445, "end": 1203.345, "text": "整个市场的规模是装不下全球的储备的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1203.345, "end": 1205.025, "text": "再看欧元区整体", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1205.025, "end": 1206.805, "text": "欧元区没有统一的财政部", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1206.805, "end": 1208.165, "text": "各国债券的信用呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1208.165, "end": 1208.805, "text": "参差不齐", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1208.805, "end": 1211.065, "text": "希腊前些年爆发了债务危机", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1211.065, "end": 1211.745, "text": "他就证明了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1211.745, "end": 1213.985, "text": "用欧元计价不等于一样安全", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1213.985, "end": 1214.825, "text": "第三", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1214.825, "end": 1215.745, "text": "看人民币资产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1215.745, "end": 1217.825, "text": "中国对资金的进出境呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1217.825, "end": 1218.485, "text": "是有管制的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1218.485, "end": 1219.025, "text": "要审批", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1219.025, "end": 1220.305, "text": "万一危机时刻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1220.305, "end": 1221.545, "text": "不能自由的取出来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1221.545, "end": 1223.025, "text": "那岂不是灭顶之灾吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1223.025, "end": 1224.425, "text": "第四看黄金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1224.425, "end": 1225.585, "text": "黄金没有利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1225.585, "end": 1226.125, "text": "而且呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1226.125, "end": 1227.785, "text": "市场装不下这么大的量", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1227.785, "end": 1229.525, "text": "几千亿美元级别", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.111670592440618, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268804871657274e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3724340175953078, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1229.525, "end": 1234.425, "text": "买入黄金或者卖出黄金会直接把这个金价推出剧烈波动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1234.425, "end": 1236.285, "text": "就会变成买的时候贵", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1236.285, "end": 1237.905, "text": "卖的时候价格崩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1237.905, "end": 1238.745, "text": "不好搞", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1238.745, "end": 1241.165, "text": "第五再来看瑞士法拉昂或者日月", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1241.165, "end": 1242.625, "text": "货币本身可靠", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1242.625, "end": 1244.325, "text": "但是市场规模也太小了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1244.325, "end": 1246.485, "text": "比美债小一到两个数量级", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1246.485, "end": 1249.225, "text": "看来看去美债就成了唯一的选项", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1249.225, "end": 1252.345, "text": "那么这个唯一选项唯一到了什么程度呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1252.345, "end": 1253.865, "text": "有一个最极端的实测", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1253.865, "end": 1256.405, "text": "2008年全球爆发金融危机", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09828144478398329, "no_speech_prob": 2.575726611164786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3388704318936877, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1256.405, "end": 1259.505, "text": "美国房贷市场和美国的银行搞出了这个问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1259.505, "end": 1261.365, "text": "美国是这场危机的源头", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1261.365, "end": 1262.325, "text": "那叫常理", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1262.325, "end": 1265.145, "text": "全世界的资金应该赶紧逃离美国才对", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1265.145, "end": 1267.905, "text": "但是实际情况恰恰相反", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1267.905, "end": 1270.965, "text": "美国资金恐慌性的卖掉手里面的各种资产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1270.965, "end": 1272.785, "text": "换成的东西是什么呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1272.785, "end": 1273.745, "text": "恰恰是美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1273.745, "end": 1276.625, "text": "美债价格不跌反而涨了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1276.625, "end": 1278.385, "text": "危机是美国引起的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1278.385, "end": 1281.305, "text": "避难的资金却涌向美国政府的债券", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1281.305, "end": 1284.005, "text": "你看就是在这么极端的时刻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1284.005, "end": 1286.325, "text": "全世界唯一信任的还是美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10333233650284585, "no_speech_prob": 2.1936216731965885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.427652733118971, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1286.325, "end": 1288.065, "text": "找不到第二个地方可以去", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1288.065, "end": 1290.825, "text": "所以这里来修正第三个普遍的误解", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1290.825, "end": 1292.725, "text": "一般人以为各国买美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1292.725, "end": 1294.985, "text": "是因为看好美国信任美国", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1294.985, "end": 1295.705, "text": "不对", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1295.705, "end": 1298.285, "text": "实际上主要动机是各国的储备", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1298.285, "end": 1300.025, "text": "它需要一个存放的地方", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1300.025, "end": 1303.445, "text": "而全世界找不到第二个比美债更适合的选项了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1303.445, "end": 1306.645, "text": "这就造成了很多国家一边公开批评美国", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1306.645, "end": 1308.705, "text": "一边继续买美国国债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1308.705, "end": 1309.885, "text": "这么一个奇特景象", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1309.885, "end": 1311.285, "text": "不是各国虚伪", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1311.285, "end": 1312.825, "text": "是没有更好的选项了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1312.825, "end": 1314.665, "text": "那把这个逻辑推到底", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09206969961935645, "no_speech_prob": 1.2893011311354563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4610389610389611, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1314.665, "end": 1316.645, "text": "会得到一个听起来很刺耳的结论", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1316.645, "end": 1318.885, "text": "全球金融体系的真实困境", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1318.885, "end": 1320.665, "text": "从来不是因为美债太多", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1320.665, "end": 1323.165, "text": "而是够安全的资产太少", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1323.165, "end": 1325.645, "text": "这句话听起来像是在替美国辩护", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1325.645, "end": 1327.785, "text": "所以要补充一个很少人知道的事实", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1327.785, "end": 1328.885, "text": "20多年前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1328.885, "end": 1331.425, "text": "美国政府连续几年财政有盈余", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1331.425, "end": 1333.565, "text": "又一次想要还清美债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1333.565, "end": 1335.405, "text": "还着还着发现不对劲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1335.405, "end": 1336.665, "text": "于是就找了经济学家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1336.665, "end": 1339.145, "text": "认真研究了国债清零会怎样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1339.145, "end": 1342.505, "text": "结果发现清零之后会引发系统新的风险", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1342.505, "end": 1344.465, "text": "这一期我专门讲过", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08475584196812898, "no_speech_prob": 4.996196859008428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3527696793002915, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1344.465, "end": 1347.425, "text": "有兴趣你看完本片再去我频道找来详细看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1347.425, "end": 1349.665, "text": "好到这里你会发现", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1349.665, "end": 1352.265, "text": "美债这个体系看起来还挺好啊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1352.265, "end": 1354.645, "text": "本金一直在滚利息也一直在付", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1354.645, "end": 1357.605, "text": "买家呢也是自己的真实需求离不开", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1357.605, "end": 1358.985, "text": "很完美对不对", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1358.985, "end": 1361.005, "text": "确实一度很完美", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1361.005, "end": 1362.585, "text": "尤其是美债借来的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1362.585, "end": 1364.825, "text": "花对地方能钱生钱的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1364.825, "end": 1366.745, "text": "哪怕付掉再多的利息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1366.745, "end": 1368.585, "text": "家底还是会越来越厚", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1368.585, "end": 1371.245, "text": "但是呢万一美债借来的钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1371.245, "end": 1373.125, "text": "花的地方不能够钱生钱了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156066826411656, "no_speech_prob": 1.5752378568212322e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1373.125, "end": 1374.905, "text": "事情就会走向反面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.153763496269614, "no_speech_prob": 1.3110660994353207e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0808823529411764, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1374.905, "end": 1376.145, "text": "你肯定就会问", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.153763496269614, "no_speech_prob": 1.3110660994353207e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0808823529411764, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1376.145, "end": 1379.045, "text": "那美债借来的钱都花到哪去了呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.153763496269614, "no_speech_prob": 1.3110660994353207e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0808823529411764, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1379.045, "end": 1381.645, "text": "花在哪的钱才能钱生钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.153763496269614, "no_speech_prob": 1.3110660994353207e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0808823529411764, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1381.645, "end": 1384.045, "text": "花去哪有没有这个效果呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.153763496269614, "no_speech_prob": 1.3110660994353207e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0808823529411764, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1384.418, "end": 1391.818, "text": "我們來看看美國200年的借債花錢史。19世紀,聯邦和各州政府開始大筆借錢。", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13798780861140797, "no_speech_prob": 9.007065926436297e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3269230769230769, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1391.818, "end": 1398.418, "text": "原來幹嘛呢?修運河、修鐵路。這些基礎設施建成之後,貿易擴大了,經濟成長了,", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13798780861140797, "no_speech_prob": 9.007065926436297e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3269230769230769, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1398.418, "end": 1400.418, "text": "税收大幅增加了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1400.418, "end": 1403.818, "text": "轻而易举的就消化掉了债务本金加利息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1403.818, "end": 1406.018, "text": "美国家底越来越厚", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1406.018, "end": 1406.918, "text": "二战之后呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1406.918, "end": 1408.818, "text": "联邦政府又继续借钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1408.818, "end": 1410.018, "text": "这一次是干嘛呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1410.018, "end": 1411.518, "text": "修洲际公路系统", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1411.518, "end": 1413.818, "text": "最后公路网遍布全国", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1413.818, "end": 1415.518, "text": "运输成本大幅下降", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1415.518, "end": 1417.218, "text": "制造业也飞快的成长", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1417.218, "end": 1420.218, "text": "再次轻而易举的覆盖了债务本金加利息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1420.218, "end": 1421.718, "text": "这一次又赢了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1421.718, "end": 1423.018, "text": "到了冷战时期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1423.018, "end": 1425.318, "text": "美国联邦政府又大量借钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1425.318, "end": 1426.118, "text": "干嘛呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1426.118, "end": 1427.618, "text": "这次是投入军事科研", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072537515677657, "no_speech_prob": 1.707482419344153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4475524475524475, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1427.618, "end": 1430.518, "text": "后来的互联网啊太空卫星啊GPS啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1430.518, "end": 1432.558, "text": "都是那时候预算的副产品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1432.558, "end": 1435.058, "text": "这些产业有多赚钱大家都清楚了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1435.058, "end": 1438.318, "text": "发现没有这类的建债花的钱花的地方", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1438.318, "end": 1439.198, "text": "它有个共同点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1439.198, "end": 1442.598, "text": "它们都能让未来能收到的税变多", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1442.598, "end": 1445.958, "text": "等于是借钱让自己变强了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1445.958, "end": 1448.718, "text": "债越借还债的能力反而越强", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1448.718, "end": 1451.158, "text": "那后来呢后来情况变了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1451.158, "end": 1453.658, "text": "最近15年美国新增的债务", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1453.658, "end": 1455.838, "text": "主要留下了另外三个地方", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14384342375255765, "no_speech_prob": 1.592169972253199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3010033444816054, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1455.838, "end": 1458.158, "text": "第一 社会保障和医疗支出", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1458.158, "end": 1459.778, "text": "美国人口逐步老化", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1459.778, "end": 1462.858, "text": "领退休金和用医疗保险的人逐年增多", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1462.858, "end": 1465.058, "text": "政府就要支付更多的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1465.058, "end": 1467.798, "text": "第二 花在两次危机救助上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1467.798, "end": 1470.458, "text": "2008年的金融危机和2020年的疫情", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1470.458, "end": 1472.938, "text": "两轮大规模的财政投放", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1472.938, "end": 1474.998, "text": "而比涨此消的是第三", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1474.998, "end": 1477.258, "text": "收入端反而变小了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1477.258, "end": 1479.278, "text": "因为几轮减税之后", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1479.278, "end": 1482.838, "text": "美国政府税收占经济的比例下降了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1483.178, "end": 1485.778, "text": "你会说 可是这三类支出都非常必要", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913636159088652, "no_speech_prob": 1.4286571058119701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2961783439490446, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1485.778, "end": 1486.498, "text": "没错", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1486.498, "end": 1488.458, "text": "不仅非常必要还很正当", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1488.458, "end": 1490.398, "text": "救助避免了大萧条重演", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1490.398, "end": 1493.118, "text": "养老和医疗是社会对老人的承诺", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1493.118, "end": 1495.318, "text": "减税可以促进经济增长", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1495.318, "end": 1497.938, "text": "但是他们在财务上都有个共同特征", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1497.938, "end": 1500.898, "text": "他们不直接产生未来的税收", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1500.898, "end": 1503.698, "text": "而且这种支出结构里面还有个重要特征", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1503.698, "end": 1504.318, "text": "什么特征", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1504.318, "end": 1506.538, "text": "就是一旦结构化", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1506.538, "end": 1508.658, "text": "它就是刚性的很难逆转", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1508.658, "end": 1510.958, "text": "痛楚的来说就是掉不了头了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1510.958, "end": 1511.858, "text": "什么意思呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1511.858, "end": 1514.058, "text": "美国联邦政府的支出它分两类", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156443606366168, "no_speech_prob": 1.741432692492495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.330188679245283, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1514.058, "end": 1517.218, "text": "一类是每年需要国会投票批准的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1517.218, "end": 1519.218, "text": "比如国防教育科研", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1519.218, "end": 1521.398, "text": "另一类是按照法律自动执行", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1521.398, "end": 1523.838, "text": "不需要任何人投票都会花出去的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1523.838, "end": 1524.818, "text": "是哪一些呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1524.818, "end": 1527.898, "text": "就是刚才说的社保医保加上利息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1527.898, "end": 1530.418, "text": "这一部分的支出到底有多大呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1530.418, "end": 1531.818, "text": "到了2026年8月", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1531.818, "end": 1533.598, "text": "自动执行的支出部分", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1533.598, "end": 1536.618, "text": "已经占到联邦总支出的六成以上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1536.618, "end": 1538.698, "text": "而且随着人口老化", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1538.698, "end": 1540.698, "text": "以后还会肉眼可见的上升", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1540.698, "end": 1543.138, "text": "这就是所谓的结构刚性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10595541733961839, "no_speech_prob": 1.502440880041256e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.363036303630363, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1543.138, "end": 1546.198, "text": "它意味着就算今天打破头的两党", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1546.198, "end": 1548.358, "text": "明天突然达成共识要削解开支", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1548.358, "end": 1552.178, "text": "那能削解的部分就只剩下那个不到四成的那部分", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1552.178, "end": 1553.918, "text": "就是国防教育科研", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1553.918, "end": 1556.438, "text": "而把那不到四成都砍光", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1556.438, "end": 1558.078, "text": "都填不平每年的赤字", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1558.078, "end": 1559.618, "text": "但是这部分能砍吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1559.618, "end": 1560.378, "text": "能砍多少", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1560.378, "end": 1562.198, "text": "想想都不太现实", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1562.198, "end": 1566.578, "text": "所以到这里就要进行第四个误解误读的修正了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1566.578, "end": 1568.778, "text": "有人说美国借钱是发展经济", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1568.778, "end": 1570.758, "text": "也有人说美国借钱是挥霍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1570.758, "end": 1572.758, "text": "这两种说法都不够准确", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09229498167295713, "no_speech_prob": 2.0063757946719996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1572.758, "end": 1573.818, "text": "准确的描述是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1573.818, "end": 1575.358, "text": "美国借来的钱就是国债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1575.358, "end": 1576.138, "text": "它流向的地方", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1576.138, "end": 1577.618, "text": "在过去几十年里", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1577.618, "end": 1579.098, "text": "从能扩大税级的项目", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1579.098, "end": 1582.458, "text": "逐渐转移到了维持现状的项目上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1582.458, "end": 1584.538, "text": "这会带来一个什么后果呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1584.538, "end": 1585.338, "text": "后果就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1585.338, "end": 1587.358, "text": "美国还债能力的增长", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1587.358, "end": 1589.618, "text": "追不上债务成本的增长了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1589.618, "end": 1590.998, "text": "那么顺理成章的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1590.998, "end": 1591.938, "text": "下一个问题就来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1591.938, "end": 1593.638, "text": "美债这么搞下去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1593.638, "end": 1595.738, "text": "它的上限到底在哪里呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1595.738, "end": 1597.418, "text": "有些朋友立刻会问", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1597.418, "end": 1599.178, "text": "美国不是有个债务上限吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1599.178, "end": 1600.358, "text": "新闻里面过段时间", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1600.358, "end": 1601.578, "text": "就会报道一次", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10981936501984549, "no_speech_prob": 1.6233769536966314e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4205607476635513, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1601.578, "end": 1604.118, "text": "两党因为这个债务上限吵架了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1604.118, "end": 1604.958, "text": "政府快没钱了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1604.958, "end": 1605.638, "text": "要违约了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1605.638, "end": 1606.758, "text": "全球都很紧张", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1606.758, "end": 1609.018, "text": "但是到最后一刻都会达成协议", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1609.018, "end": 1610.898, "text": "上限提高接大欢喜", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1610.898, "end": 1612.198, "text": "要澄清一下", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1612.198, "end": 1614.498, "text": "这个法定的债务上限", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1614.498, "end": 1616.778, "text": "它是美国国会在1939年的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1616.778, "end": 1618.798, "text": "给自己立的一项规矩", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1618.798, "end": 1620.718, "text": "规定财政部借债的总额", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1620.718, "end": 1622.218, "text": "不能超过某个数字", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1622.218, "end": 1623.758, "text": "听起来很严格对吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1623.758, "end": 1624.998, "text": "但是你看实际实行", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1624.998, "end": 1627.238, "text": "从1960年到今天", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1627.238, "end": 1630.558, "text": "这个债务上限它被调高暂停修改了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1630.558, "end": 1631.338, "text": "多少次呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10196323685234573, "no_speech_prob": 1.958392996381786e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3072289156626506, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1631.338, "end": 1632.718, "text": "大约80次", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1632.718, "end": 1634.778, "text": "平均下来一年都不止一次", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1634.778, "end": 1638.098, "text": "一个每次碰到就会往上调的天花板", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1638.098, "end": 1641.158, "text": "你说它算不算那个固定的刚性的天花板呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1641.158, "end": 1644.358, "text": "所以到这里进行第五个误解误读的修正", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1644.358, "end": 1647.258, "text": "美国政治新闻里面的债务上限危机", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1647.258, "end": 1649.338, "text": "本质上它不是财务危机", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1649.338, "end": 1650.958, "text": "而是政治博弈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1650.958, "end": 1653.898, "text": "两党都知道上限最后一定会提高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1653.898, "end": 1656.638, "text": "因为不提高后果谁也承担不起", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1656.638, "end": 1658.358, "text": "那他们吵什么呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1658.358, "end": 1659.798, "text": "吵的是在这个提高过程中", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09141991304796795, "no_speech_prob": 2.0135598050030623e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1659.798, "end": 1662.358, "text": "能从对方那里换到什么条件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1662.358, "end": 1664.418, "text": "这出戏演了几十年了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1664.418, "end": 1665.918, "text": "剧本都没怎么变过", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1665.918, "end": 1667.458, "text": "注意 说它是戏", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1667.458, "end": 1669.598, "text": "不等于说它完全没有后果", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1669.598, "end": 1671.518, "text": "2011年那次债务危机", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1671.518, "end": 1674.278, "text": "两党僵持到最后几天才达成协议", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1674.278, "end": 1675.878, "text": "结果标准普尔历史上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1675.878, "end": 1677.818, "text": "第一次调低了美国的信用评级", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1677.818, "end": 1680.098, "text": "2023年又是一次争吵", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1680.098, "end": 1682.058, "text": "惠玉也降低了美国评级", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1682.058, "end": 1685.778, "text": "2025年穆迪也降低了美国的信用评级", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1685.778, "end": 1687.258, "text": "三大评级机构", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11036103837033535, "no_speech_prob": 1.7304033206322345e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.367132867132867, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1687.258, "end": 1689.858, "text": "全部都不再给美国最高评级了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1689.858, "end": 1692.498, "text": "在那之后虽然天没有塌下来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1692.498, "end": 1693.978, "text": "美债照样卖得出去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1693.978, "end": 1696.898, "text": "但这些降级就像是体检报告上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1696.898, "end": 1698.498, "text": "一次次出现的异常指标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1698.498, "end": 1700.018, "text": "还没有发展到疾病", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1700.018, "end": 1702.438, "text": "但是异常已经记录在案了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1702.438, "end": 1705.258, "text": "那么真正的上限又是什么呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1705.258, "end": 1707.518, "text": "真正的上限它不是一个具体数字", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1707.518, "end": 1709.678, "text": "很多人以为存在某条线", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1709.678, "end": 1712.238, "text": "比如债务达到GDP的100%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1712.238, "end": 1713.538, "text": "150% 200%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1713.538, "end": 1714.758, "text": "一过线就会炸", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1714.758, "end": 1716.458, "text": "但现实不支持这个说法", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12423559501346222, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130518795676174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2705167173252279, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1716.458, "end": 1717.818, "text": "截止2026年9月", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1717.818, "end": 1720.238, "text": "美国债务约占GDP的125%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1720.238, "end": 1723.598, "text": "超过了二战结束时候的106的历史高峰", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1723.598, "end": 1724.398, "text": "没有报", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1724.398, "end": 1727.618, "text": "再看日本债务占到了GDP的超过200%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1727.618, "end": 1729.078, "text": "是美国的将近两倍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1729.078, "end": 1730.038, "text": "也没有报", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1730.038, "end": 1733.618, "text": "日本的国债利率还长期是全世界最低的之一", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1733.618, "end": 1735.378, "text": "反过来历史上有些国家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1735.378, "end": 1738.358, "text": "债务只占GDP的40%50%就报了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1738.358, "end": 1739.598, "text": "比如一些拉美国家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1739.598, "end": 1742.038, "text": "所以决定这个生死的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1742.038, "end": 1744.318, "text": "不是债务数字本身比例本身", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1744.318, "end": 1745.278, "text": "那是什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11878472231747059, "no_speech_prob": 1.2896924847516367e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342281879194631, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1745.278, "end": 1746.498, "text": "是三个条件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1746.498, "end": 1747.698, "text": "我们一个一个来看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1747.698, "end": 1748.758, "text": "第一个条件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1748.758, "end": 1749.778, "text": "这个债啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1749.778, "end": 1752.478, "text": "它是不是用自己发行的货币计价的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1752.478, "end": 1754.118, "text": "日本欠的是日元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1754.118, "end": 1755.698, "text": "美国欠的是美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1755.698, "end": 1757.678, "text": "都是自己能发行的货币", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1757.678, "end": 1759.538, "text": "技术上永远付得出来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1759.538, "end": 1761.758, "text": "而爆掉的那些国家呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1761.758, "end": 1762.918, "text": "欠的往往是美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1762.918, "end": 1764.678, "text": "本国货币一贬值", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1764.678, "end": 1766.718, "text": "债务负担立刻就翻倍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1766.718, "end": 1767.758, "text": "这才是死穴", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1767.758, "end": 1769.118, "text": "这是第一个条件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1769.118, "end": 1770.058, "text": "第二个条件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1770.058, "end": 1771.658, "text": "每年付利息的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1771.658, "end": 1773.258, "text": "占政府收入的比例", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1773.258, "end": 1774.578, "text": "这是核心指标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13516195527799837, "no_speech_prob": 1.496577167747759e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.516245487364621, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1774.578, "end": 1777.558, "text": "你想啊债务本金可以永远的滚动", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1777.558, "end": 1778.438, "text": "永远不用还清", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1778.438, "end": 1779.338, "text": "但利息不行", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1779.338, "end": 1782.418, "text": "利息是每年真金白银要付出去的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1782.418, "end": 1783.778, "text": "只要利息付得起", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1783.778, "end": 1785.518, "text": "那这条河就能一直留", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1785.518, "end": 1787.078, "text": "利息要是付不起呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1787.078, "end": 1788.658, "text": "游戏就会真正结束", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1788.658, "end": 1791.678, "text": "那美国现在的利息负担是个什么水平呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1791.678, "end": 1793.358, "text": "这里有一个标志性的变化", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1793.358, "end": 1795.018, "text": "就发生在2026年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1795.018, "end": 1797.098, "text": "美国联邦政府一年要付的利息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1797.098, "end": 1798.518, "text": "已经达到一兆", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1798.518, "end": 1800.258, "text": "也就是一万亿美元的这个量级", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1800.258, "end": 1802.918, "text": "历史上第一次超过了它的国防开支", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12374999675344914, "no_speech_prob": 2.0128527317142542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3806646525679758, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1802.918, "end": 1806.058, "text": "要知道美国的国防开支是全球第一的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1806.058, "end": 1808.158, "text": "比后面好几个国家加起来都还多", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1808.158, "end": 1811.558, "text": "而现在光是付这个国债的利息就超过了它", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1811.558, "end": 1813.498, "text": "为什么利息会涨得这么快呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1813.498, "end": 1814.578, "text": "两个原因叠加", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1814.578, "end": 1816.898, "text": "一 债务总量在增加", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1816.898, "end": 1818.018, "text": "这很好理解", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1818.018, "end": 1820.378, "text": "第二呢 是利率在涨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1820.378, "end": 1822.858, "text": "每债每一周都在借薪还救", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1822.858, "end": 1823.598, "text": "这意味着什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1823.598, "end": 1826.698, "text": "意味着以前那种低利率时代借的旧债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1826.698, "end": 1827.538, "text": "到期之后呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1827.538, "end": 1830.358, "text": "要用现在的高利率的新债去替换", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1830.358, "end": 1832.658, "text": "美国联邦债务的平均利率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1073631487394634, "no_speech_prob": 1.3146833448274275e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3950617283950617, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1832.658, "end": 1834.578, "text": "前几年还在1.5%左右", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09547768698798285, "no_speech_prob": 1.0852609609590669e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.928, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1834.578, "end": 1836.158, "text": "截至2026年8月", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09547768698798285, "no_speech_prob": 1.0852609609590669e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.928, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1836.158, "end": 1838.058, "text": "已经升到了3%以上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09547768698798285, "no_speech_prob": 1.0852609609590669e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.928, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1838.058, "end": 1839.978, "text": "同样的债务总量", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09547768698798285, "no_speech_prob": 1.0852609609590669e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.928, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1839.978, "end": 1841.938, "text": "利息成本就直接翻倍了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09547768698798285, "no_speech_prob": 1.0852609609590669e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.928, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1857.32, "end": 1860.26, "text": "都在对美国的信用进行一次投票", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1860.26, "end": 1862.84, "text": "要是买家很多出价很踊跃", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1862.84, "end": 1865.1, "text": "那么利率自然就会被压得很低", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1865.1, "end": 1866.84, "text": "说明信任还在很稳固", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1866.84, "end": 1868.8, "text": "买家要是兴趣下降了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1868.8, "end": 1870.64, "text": "压力就来到美国财政部这边了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1870.64, "end": 1871.46, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1871.46, "end": 1873.58, "text": "财政部就必须提高利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1873.58, "end": 1875.34, "text": "才能把这个债给卖出去", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1875.34, "end": 1876.58, "text": "这意味着什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1876.58, "end": 1878.76, "text": "就意味着全世界在对美国财政部说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1878.76, "end": 1880.76, "text": "我钱还可以继续借给你", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1880.76, "end": 1882.38, "text": "但是你得多付给我利息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1882.38, "end": 1884.4, "text": "因为我没有以前那么放心了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1884.4, "end": 1886.7, "text": "所以把这三个条件加起来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07753070772003015, "no_speech_prob": 1.798536493347047e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154302670623145, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1886.7, "end": 1887.36, "text": "答案就出来了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1887.36, "end": 1889.28, "text": "美债真正的上线在哪里", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1889.28, "end": 1890.46, "text": "它不是一个数字", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1890.46, "end": 1892.4, "text": "而是一条动态的边界", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1892.4, "end": 1894.64, "text": "它是由利息占收入的比例", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1894.64, "end": 1895.82, "text": "还有买家的意愿", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1895.82, "end": 1896.74, "text": "共同决定的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1896.74, "end": 1898.32, "text": "而且每个星期", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1898.32, "end": 1900.38, "text": "都在被重新测量这个边界", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1900.38, "end": 1902.4, "text": "这个边界虽然是动态的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1902.4, "end": 1904.12, "text": "但是趋势却是明显的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1904.12, "end": 1905.82, "text": "因为利息负担在加重", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1905.82, "end": 1907.34, "text": "那么最后的问题来了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1907.34, "end": 1909.12, "text": "也是所有人最想问的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1909.12, "end": 1910.24, "text": "这么一直借下去", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1910.24, "end": 1911.9, "text": "最后到底会怎么样呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1911.9, "end": 1913.04, "text": "先说结论", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1913.04, "end": 1913.86, "text": "可能会让一些", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1913.86, "end": 1915.68, "text": "期待大场面的观众失望", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11886009495919912, "no_speech_prob": 2.4967318143498396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1915.68, "end": 1917.82, "text": "最后的结局不是爆炸", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1917.82, "end": 1919.02, "text": "而是稀释", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1919.02, "end": 1920.44, "text": "为什么这么说呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1920.44, "end": 1922.3, "text": "我们先把其他可能的结局", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1922.3, "end": 1924.04, "text": "一个一个的推演一遍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1924.04, "end": 1925.26, "text": "第一种可能的结局", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1925.26, "end": 1926.5, "text": "美国正面违约", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1926.5, "end": 1928.88, "text": "就是美国公开宣布债我不还了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1928.88, "end": 1930.5, "text": "这种可能性接近于零", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1930.5, "end": 1931.38, "text": "为什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1931.38, "end": 1932.96, "text": "不是因为美国讲道德", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1932.96, "end": 1934.56, "text": "是因为完全没必要", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1934.56, "end": 1935.66, "text": "前面多次讲过", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1935.66, "end": 1937.7, "text": "美债是以美元计价的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1937.7, "end": 1939.46, "text": "美国永远印得出美元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1939.46, "end": 1941.56, "text": "一个永远印得出钱的人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1941.56, "end": 1942.96, "text": "为什么还要赖账呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1942.96, "end": 1944.72, "text": "赖账的代价是哈密尔顿", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13368809809450244, "no_speech_prob": 1.6028716548488475e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5360824742268042, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1944.72, "end": 1947.06, "text": "攒了200多年的信用瞬间归零", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1947.06, "end": 1948.4, "text": "而收益也是零", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1948.4, "end": 1951.24, "text": "没有人会做这种代价无穷大", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1951.24, "end": 1952.42, "text": "而收益为零的事情", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1952.42, "end": 1953.54, "text": "第二种可能", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1953.54, "end": 1955.64, "text": "靠经济成长把债务消化掉", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1955.64, "end": 1957.24, "text": "这是最理想的结果", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1957.24, "end": 1959.78, "text": "而且美国历史上还真的走通过一次", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1959.78, "end": 1961.06, "text": "二战结束的时候", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1961.06, "end": 1963.78, "text": "美国债务占GDP高达106%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1963.78, "end": 1965.78, "text": "但是到了1974年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1965.78, "end": 1967.86, "text": "这个比例居然降到了23%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1967.86, "end": 1969.0, "text": "怎么做到呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1969.0, "end": 1971.02, "text": "1945年到1974年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1971.02, "end": 1972.08, "text": "这个30年里面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1972.08, "end": 1973.6, "text": "经济高速成长", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1108894023028287, "no_speech_prob": 1.574497650314033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2611464968152866, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1973.6, "end": 1974.88, "text": "税收也跟着涨", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1974.88, "end": 1975.94, "text": "债务数字呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1975.94, "end": 1977.08, "text": "虽然也在涨", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1977.08, "end": 1978.7, "text": "但相对于整个经济而言", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1978.7, "end": 1980.8, "text": "它的涨幅就变得微不足道了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1980.8, "end": 1982.82, "text": "这就是我们前面讲的逻辑", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1982.82, "end": 1985.5, "text": "借来的钱花在能前升钱的地方", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1985.5, "end": 1986.62, "text": "债务就不是问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1986.62, "end": 1989.08, "text": "但是也正如前面所讲的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1989.08, "end": 1991.78, "text": "今天美国的支出结构已经变了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1991.78, "end": 1995.76, "text": "六成以上是自动执行给养老医疗和利息的钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1995.76, "end": 1996.96, "text": "那有人会说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1996.96, "end": 1999.32, "text": "最近几年人工智能不是成长得特别快吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 1999.32, "end": 2001.32, "text": "支撑起了美国经济一路走强吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10777431064181858, "no_speech_prob": 2.2115833470115476e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3394495412844036, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2001.32, "end": 2004.08, "text": "虽然我对此也是一定程度上的审视乐观", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2004.08, "end": 2008.48, "text": "但是光靠人工智能能不能让美国再次走通这条路", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2008.48, "end": 2010.6, "text": "重演我们前文所说的二战之后", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2010.6, "end": 2012.38, "text": "经济高速成长之路", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2012.38, "end": 2014.1, "text": "我们这里的不做预测", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2014.1, "end": 2017.1, "text": "只是展示这种可能性交给时间来验证", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2017.1, "end": 2018.76, "text": "这是第二种可能", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2018.76, "end": 2019.6, "text": "第三种可能", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2019.6, "end": 2022.0, "text": "也是历史上大国处理债务", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2022.0, "end": 2024.26, "text": "最常用也是最隐蔽的一条路", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2024.26, "end": 2025.34, "text": "是什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2025.34, "end": 2028.36, "text": "是用通货膨胀来稀释债务", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2028.36, "end": 2030.04, "text": "这条路的逻辑是这样子的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09854021551888749, "no_speech_prob": 1.4734454975573463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2030.04, "end": 2031.54, "text": "债务是明目金额", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2031.54, "end": 2032.62, "text": "借的时候写多少", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2032.62, "end": 2034.16, "text": "还的时候就还多少", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2034.16, "end": 2035.02, "text": "一分不少", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2035.02, "end": 2037.42, "text": "但是如果这期间物价涨了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2037.42, "end": 2039.3, "text": "钱的购买力跌了呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2039.3, "end": 2040.18, "text": "举个例子", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2040.18, "end": 2041.88, "text": "30年前借你100块", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2041.88, "end": 2044.28, "text": "30年后如注奉还100块", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2044.28, "end": 2045.7, "text": "本金利息一分钱不差", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2045.7, "end": 2047.18, "text": "账面上清清白白了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2047.18, "end": 2049.72, "text": "但是30年前的100块能买的东西", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2049.72, "end": 2051.34, "text": "和今天100块能买的东西", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2051.34, "end": 2052.14, "text": "是一回事吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2052.14, "end": 2052.96, "text": "差得远了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2052.96, "end": 2054.96, "text": "债主拿回了全部的钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2054.96, "end": 2056.88, "text": "却拿不回全部的购买力", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2056.88, "end": 2058.56, "text": "差额去哪里了呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13057913831485216, "no_speech_prob": 2.119643349729472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2058.56, "end": 2062.04, "text": "被通胀悄悄转移给了这个接款人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2062.04, "end": 2063.32, "text": "前面说过", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2063.32, "end": 2066.46, "text": "付不付得出来钱和付出来的钱值多少钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2066.46, "end": 2067.38, "text": "是两回事", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2067.38, "end": 2069.4, "text": "说的就是这个道理", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2069.4, "end": 2070.24, "text": "二战之后", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2070.24, "end": 2071.86, "text": "美国那次成功的消化债务", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2071.86, "end": 2073.56, "text": "靠的其实是两条路", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2073.56, "end": 2075.86, "text": "一条路前面讲过了经济成长", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2075.86, "end": 2076.98, "text": "另外一条路呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2076.98, "end": 2080.56, "text": "就是温和的通胀加上人为压低利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2080.56, "end": 2083.38, "text": "让债主拿到的利息追不上物价", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2083.38, "end": 2085.84, "text": "在学术上这叫金融意志", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2085.84, "end": 2086.46, "text": "说白了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1107057925469861, "no_speech_prob": 1.3905394197211152e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.34375, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2086.46, "end": 2090.34, "text": "就是让全体债主每年默默承受一点小损失", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2090.34, "end": 2091.84, "text": "几十年下来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2091.84, "end": 2093.7, "text": "债整体上就轻了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2093.7, "end": 2094.7, "text": "注意啊", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2094.7, "end": 2096.5, "text": "这条路的关键词是温和", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2096.5, "end": 2098.88, "text": "每年2%、3%的通货膨胀", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2098.88, "end": 2099.88, "text": "这个债主呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2099.88, "end": 2100.48, "text": "虽然吃亏", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2100.48, "end": 2101.94, "text": "但吃亏吃的不多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2101.94, "end": 2102.76, "text": "也就忍了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2102.76, "end": 2104.72, "text": "因为他们没有更好的地方", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2104.72, "end": 2106.64, "text": "可以去消化他们的这个储备", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2106.64, "end": 2108.92, "text": "但如果通货膨胀失控了呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2108.92, "end": 2111.52, "text": "就回到本篇开头的大陆币那个故事", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2111.52, "end": 2112.82, "text": "印钱印成了废纸", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2112.82, "end": 2114.52, "text": "所以美国走这条路啊", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2114.52, "end": 2116.2, "text": "走的就是一条钢丝绳", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1191187858581543, "no_speech_prob": 1.71652986963311e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.342507645259939, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2116.2, "end": 2118.48, "text": "稀释要是稀释的太慢了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2118.48, "end": 2119.5, "text": "债务问题解决不了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2119.5, "end": 2121.12, "text": "可是如果稀释的太快了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2121.12, "end": 2123.26, "text": "债主是会集体跑掉的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2123.26, "end": 2125.08, "text": "200年的信用就崩塌了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2125.08, "end": 2126.6, "text": "那么第四种可能", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2126.6, "end": 2128.34, "text": "债主真的会跑掉吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2128.34, "end": 2130.46, "text": "这里就要修正第七个误解", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2130.46, "end": 2132.36, "text": "也是流量新闻最爱做的文章", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2132.36, "end": 2133.22, "text": "是什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2133.22, "end": 2134.68, "text": "某某国家抛售美债", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2134.68, "end": 2136.54, "text": "美元霸权崩溃在即", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2136.54, "end": 2137.96, "text": "是不是这样呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2137.96, "end": 2138.86, "text": "我们来看事实", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2138.86, "end": 2141.28, "text": "中国从2013年的最高点", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2141.28, "end": 2142.54, "text": "开始减持美债", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2142.54, "end": 2144.48, "text": "到今天已经减了一半以上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2144.48, "end": 2145.96, "text": "占美债总量的比例", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12528139172178326, "no_speech_prob": 1.3530716477805349e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3502994011976048, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2145.96, "end": 2149.62, "text": "已经从最高点的8%降到1.6%左右", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2149.62, "end": 2151.58, "text": "十几年美债崩了吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2151.58, "end": 2151.92, "text": "没有", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2151.92, "end": 2152.94, "text": "为什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2152.94, "end": 2155.6, "text": "回到前面我们所讲的那条河的那个画面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2155.6, "end": 2157.34, "text": "美债市场上一天的交易量", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2157.34, "end": 2158.92, "text": "就是千亿美元的这个级别", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2158.92, "end": 2160.72, "text": "任何一个国家的减持", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2160.72, "end": 2162.04, "text": "摊到十几年里面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2162.04, "end": 2164.28, "text": "也就是像从大河里面摇水", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2164.28, "end": 2164.8, "text": "河面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2164.8, "end": 2166.42, "text": "连个水位变化都看不出来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2166.42, "end": 2168.08, "text": "而且前面还讲过", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2168.08, "end": 2169.46, "text": "卖掉美债的钱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2169.46, "end": 2170.8, "text": "它总得有地方去", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2170.8, "end": 2171.9, "text": "去哪了呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2171.9, "end": 2173.96, "text": "全世界仍然找不到第二个", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2173.96, "end": 2175.44, "text": "可以装得下那么多钱的地方", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11155110690260181, "no_speech_prob": 2.1680221853892512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3304347826086957, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2175.44, "end": 2178.76, "text": "所以真实世界正在发生的不是抛售", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2178.76, "end": 2180.4, "text": "而是另外一个慢得多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2180.4, "end": 2181.76, "text": "但是更值得注意的过程", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2181.76, "end": 2183.58, "text": "就是全球其他国家的央行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2183.58, "end": 2185.68, "text": "在逐年的增加黄金储备", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2185.68, "end": 2188.58, "text": "美元在全球外汇储备中的这个占比", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2188.58, "end": 2190.48, "text": "从20年前的7成以上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2190.48, "end": 2192.72, "text": "缓慢降到了6成以下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2192.72, "end": 2193.74, "text": "注意这个词", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2193.74, "end": 2195.46, "text": "缓慢但是持续", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2195.46, "end": 2196.62, "text": "这不是崩塌", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2196.62, "end": 2197.88, "text": "这是慢慢的侵蚀", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2197.88, "end": 2198.48, "text": "好", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2198.48, "end": 2200.42, "text": "我们把这四种可能性放在一起", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2200.42, "end": 2202.46, "text": "就能看清楚最后的景象了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2202.46, "end": 2204.46, "text": "正面违约美国不会发生", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10305845067742166, "no_speech_prob": 1.6369563690665778e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3405572755417956, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2204.46, "end": 2207.8, "text": "成长消化对美国来说有可能部分有效", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2207.8, "end": 2210.76, "text": "通胀息事这个债务正在进行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2210.76, "end": 2211.94, "text": "每天都在进行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2211.94, "end": 2212.9, "text": "而在这个过程中", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2212.9, "end": 2214.28, "text": "美债作为最安全的资产", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2214.28, "end": 2215.5, "text": "作为最大的储备", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2215.5, "end": 2217.44, "text": "它确实是在逐渐的被侵蚀", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2217.44, "end": 2219.84, "text": "这个过程也是在缓慢推进的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2219.84, "end": 2222.38, "text": "所以回答美债最后会怎样", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2222.38, "end": 2226.02, "text": "答案大概率不会像很多人等着看的那种崩盘", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2226.02, "end": 2228.14, "text": "更大概率的剧本应该是这样", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2228.14, "end": 2231.48, "text": "利息占美国联邦的支出比例一年年上升", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2231.48, "end": 2233.68, "text": "会挤压国防教育科研", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0811411186500832, "no_speech_prob": 1.6637814390096928e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881987577639752, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2233.68, "end": 2234.98, "text": "这些能动的开支", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2234.98, "end": 2236.54, "text": "而美元的购买力呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2236.54, "end": 2237.76, "text": "一年年被稀释", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2237.76, "end": 2239.16, "text": "全世界的债主呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2239.16, "end": 2241.18, "text": "一边抱怨一边继续持有", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2241.18, "end": 2244.1, "text": "同时一点点的增加黄金和其他资产", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2244.1, "end": 2245.58, "text": "美国的建债成本", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10038077410529642, "no_speech_prob": 1.426043744895411e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2245.58, "end": 2255.92, "text": "美國的建債成本一年年的抬高,直到某一天,政治上不得不做出今天不願意去做的那個選擇就是加稅或者是宣解福利。要么呢,只能去接受更高的從長。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17787503261192172, "no_speech_prob": 9.574696938075e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3258785942492013, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2255.92, "end": 2260.02, "text": "这是一场漫长的所有人共同分担成本的消耗", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2260.02, "end": 2262.2, "text": "谁在分担这些成本呢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2262.2, "end": 2263.22, "text": "是这些人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2263.22, "end": 2266.76, "text": "第一呢持有美元的人分摊购买力的损失", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2266.76, "end": 2268.6, "text": "第二呢持有美债的人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2268.6, "end": 2271.84, "text": "却分摊这个利息和通货膨胀的差额损失", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2271.84, "end": 2276.14, "text": "第三呢美国的纳税人分摊越来越重的利息支出", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2276.14, "end": 2279.2, "text": "你看这场全世界最大的债务游戏", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2279.2, "end": 2282.46, "text": "最后的买单方式不是某一方血本无归", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08344104621983782, "no_speech_prob": 1.5325895066919948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4258555133079849, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2282.46, "end": 2286.36, "text": "而是所有的参与方每年都被切走那薄薄的一片", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2286.36, "end": 2290.0, "text": "好 讲到这里关于美债的具体内容讲完了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2290.0, "end": 2292.94, "text": "未来一段时间关于美债的新闻肯定还有很多", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2292.94, "end": 2295.72, "text": "那么我们怎么样来看待这个新闻", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2295.72, "end": 2297.12, "text": "让自己看得更明白呢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2297.12, "end": 2300.46, "text": "有一套简单的过滤器叫三看三不看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2300.46, "end": 2303.24, "text": "请注意这里的看的意思是特别关注的意思", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2303.24, "end": 2305.28, "text": "先说三个不用特别关注的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2305.28, "end": 2306.26, "text": "三个不用看的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2306.26, "end": 2308.74, "text": "第一 美债总额在创新高", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2308.74, "end": 2309.54, "text": "不用看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2309.54, "end": 2312.16, "text": "这是一个永远在滚动增长的数字", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08446691277321805, "no_speech_prob": 1.7034977595198342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779874213836477, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2312.16, "end": 2313.84, "text": "每个月都是历史新高", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2313.84, "end": 2314.86, "text": "真要看呢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2314.86, "end": 2316.56, "text": "就看它和GDP的比例", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2316.56, "end": 2318.56, "text": "看利息和税收的比例", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2318.56, "end": 2320.2, "text": "比例才有信息量", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2320.2, "end": 2321.76, "text": "但是绝对数字并没有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2321.76, "end": 2323.28, "text": "第二不用看的是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2323.28, "end": 2325.28, "text": "债务上线又要谈判了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2325.28, "end": 2326.36, "text": "美国要违约了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2326.36, "end": 2327.18, "text": "不用紧张", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2327.18, "end": 2327.86, "text": "前面讲过", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2327.86, "end": 2328.62, "text": "这出戏呢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2328.62, "end": 2330.82, "text": "从1960年代演到今天", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2330.82, "end": 2332.16, "text": "已经演了80次了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2332.16, "end": 2333.88, "text": "结果全部都一样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2333.88, "end": 2334.92, "text": "第三个不用看的是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2334.92, "end": 2336.48, "text": "某国抛售美债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2336.48, "end": 2337.4, "text": "也不用慌", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2337.4, "end": 2338.72, "text": "先去看一看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2338.72, "end": 2341.42, "text": "它在美债总量里面的比例是多少", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11649923273586335, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336539767845213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365384615384615, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2341.42, "end": 2343.9, "text": "再想想那条河的这个画面", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2343.9, "end": 2346.96, "text": "你就知道一般情况下是翻不起多大浪花的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2346.96, "end": 2351.18, "text": "而三个真要看就是重点要关注的是什么呢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2351.18, "end": 2353.6, "text": "第一看拍卖也就是美国国债的发行", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2353.6, "end": 2358.24, "text": "如果哪一天美国国债的这种发行出现明显的需求不足", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2358.24, "end": 2361.88, "text": "需要大幅提高利率才能勉强卖完甚至流标", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2361.88, "end": 2363.3, "text": "这就是真的信号", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2363.3, "end": 2367.58, "text": "因为这就意味着全世界每周一次的信任投票投出了不信任票", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08803511310268093, "no_speech_prob": 1.4009661486458214e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3691275167785235, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2367.58, "end": 2372.64, "text": "第二要看美债的长期利率和通货膨胀的差是多少", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2372.64, "end": 2377.0, "text": "如果长期美债利率持续大幅高于通货膨胀和成长", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2377.0, "end": 2378.36, "text": "能解释的水平", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2378.36, "end": 2381.46, "text": "说明债主们开始要求不信任溢价了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2381.46, "end": 2383.92, "text": "他们在用价格让美国来多出成本", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2383.92, "end": 2386.58, "text": "第三个要看的是看美债的利息", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2386.58, "end": 2387.98, "text": "占美国财政收入的比例", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2387.98, "end": 2389.8, "text": "这个数字每年都会公布", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2389.8, "end": 2392.28, "text": "要看它是稳定还是加速上升", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2392.28, "end": 2396.22, "text": "直接反映美债这条河的水位离警戒线还有多远", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07848167419433594, "no_speech_prob": 1.2750996439270246e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.392156862745098, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2396.22, "end": 2398.24, "text": "这三个信号都有一个共同点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2398.24, "end": 2399.46, "text": "它们都不是观点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2399.46, "end": 2401.72, "text": "是价格和数据骗不了人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2401.72, "end": 2403.24, "text": "新闻的标题可以夸张", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2403.24, "end": 2405.04, "text": "但是拍卖的结果它不会说谎", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2405.04, "end": 2407.74, "text": "好 这就是美债的完整故事了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2407.74, "end": 2408.72, "text": "看懂了它", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2408.72, "end": 2411.18, "text": "你就看懂了现代国家信用的底层逻辑", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2411.18, "end": 2413.94, "text": "就再也不会被任何一条美债要崩", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2413.94, "end": 2415.18, "text": "某国的国债要崩", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2415.18, "end": 2416.36, "text": "这种标题牵着走了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2416.36, "end": 2418.42, "text": "好 如果这期节目对你有帮助", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2418.42, "end": 2419.74, "text": "欢迎你订阅和转发", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08862234511465397, "no_speech_prob": 2.1951282805354744e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3899721448467968, "source": "whisper" }, { "start": 2419.74, "end": 2420.88, "text": "如果大家支持我", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": 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