{ "text": "今天我們來講美聯儲加息。2026年1月,美國總統川普說,他要選一位會降息的人來當美聯儲主席。5月,凱文沃時上任。結果呢,這位被川普選來降息的美聯儲主席,8月底首次重大政策演講的時候,他說啊,如果通脹不回落,我們就有工作要做了。那市長聽懂了,他說的是加息。請注意這三件事情。第一,一個被總統選來降息的人,再考慮加息。第二呢,\n他要对付的那个物价涨幅超过三分之一来自油价\n而加息对油价几乎没有办法\n第三呢 剔除食物和能源\n年核心通胀率只有2.4%\n其实还在往下走\n数字明明在改善\n他却仍然要动手\n这三件事情放在一处是处处矛盾\n但是这三个矛盾\n恰恰是看懂美联储的一次好机会\n今天我们就把美联储这道机制\n从头到尾讲透彻\n美联储是什么\n利率怎么运作\n加不加息这个决定怎么做出来\n为什么一百年来美联储每隔一段时间\n总会在同样的地方跌倒一次\n看完之后\n在有关美联储加息还是降息的新闻\n你就不需要任何分析师\n自己就能读得懂\n老规矩\n我们先打基础\n这位卧食的矛盾之处\n我们先往后放一放\n影片的后半段再回来说它\n先来看第一个问题\n美联储到底是谁的美联储\n对于美联储的误解大致分为两派\n一派认为它是美国政府的一个部门\n听总统的\n另一派认为它是华尔街的代言人\n听资本家的\n这里要进行第一个误解的修正\n两派都不对\n美联储全名联邦储备系统\n台湾叫联准会\n1913年由国会立法成立\n是美国的中央银行\n虽然是美国的中央银行\n但是它并非政府部门\n总统不能对它下命令\n它也不是华尔街的傀儡\n但为什么会有这两个误解呢\n这都来自他独特的两层结构\n我们看一眼就明白了\n两层结构的上面一层在华盛顿叫理事会\n七名理事由总统提名参议院通过\n任期14年\n注意这个14年比总统的任期还长呢\n长得多\n可能三任总统都换完了\n一位理事还没有到期\n这会带来一个什么结果呢\n结果是这种制度可以保证理事的独立性\n由总统提名\n但是可以不听总统的\n那么这七位理事中\n会产生一位主席\n一位副主席\n主席任期四年\n可以连任\n开头讲的那位卧石\n就是这七人理事之一\n同时担任主席\n这是两层结构的上面一层\n那么下面一层呢\n是12家地区联邦储备银行\n分布在纽约芝加哥旧金山的12个城市\n私人银行傀儡论\n就是从这里诞生出来的\n这12家地区联邦储备银行\n在法律形式上确实是由各地的商业银行入股组成\n但是这些股份不能买卖\n商业银行也没有任何的决策权\n纯粹是1913年那个立法留下来的历史形式\n这12家地区联储银行平时都干嘛呢\n做上层理事会的执行机构\n其中纽约联储银行最为重要\n因为美联储所有在市场上的操作\n都由它来执行\n好 结构搞清楚了\n那么美联储要做什么呢\n国会给他的法定任务只有两条\n稳定物价最大就业\n稳定物价操作上就是年通胀率维持在20%左右\n这是2012年正式写下来的\n最大就业没有一个固定数字\n一般失业率在4%上下\n就算是全球都公认的接近全民就业的这个指标\n那才两条任务听起来很简单吧\n不简单\n因为这两条任务是互相打架的\n稳定物价 那么通胀就必须要压住 不让物价飞涨\n那么要压住通胀的手段呢 就是加息 让经济降温\n但是经济一降温 公司不扩张 不请人了 失业率就容易上来\n最大就业就没了 那么反过来呢 保就业就要降息 让经济升温\n而升温通常也会抬高物价\n所以呢 美联储每一个决定 本质上都是在这两个任务之间呢\n要取一个中间的平衡位置\n记住这个此消彼长\n它是后面所有故事的引擎\n包括100年来美联储的每一次翻车都翻车在这里\n这两个法庭任务既然都要靠同一个工具\n就是那个利率\n那么下一个问题自然就来了\n各式各样的利率这么的多\n美联储加利率或者降利率动的都是哪个利率呢\n先给大家动的不是别的\n只是联邦基金利率这一个利率\n准确的说呢\n它是一个目标区间\n宽0.25个百分点\n2026年9月一席会议之前\n这个区间是在3.5到3.75之间\n新闻里面常常说的那个加息一码\n指的就是把整个利率区间\n往上移0.25个百分点加息一码\n那么这笔联邦基金又是一笔什么钱呢\n按照美国法律\n每家商业银行在美联储都必须有一个账户\n账户里面都必须有一笔钱\n叫做准备金\n为什么要有准备金呢\n最初的设计是为了应付客户的大额提现或者是支付\n必须要有一笔足够多的钱\n保底能给不能把所有的钱都让银行放贷给放出去了\n以前但凡开银行都必须要在美联储存这么一笔钱\n那么多商业银行都往美联储存这么一笔钱\n美联储账上就有了一大笔钱\n这笔各个商业银行存在这里的钱就叫做联邦基金\n时代发展之后\n越来越多的人就不再取现金\n搬现金给现金了\n而是转账\n买个东西也好\n交笔费用也好\n钱直接从纽约的A银行的账户\n转到西雅图B银行的账户就搞定了\n可是这样一来\n大量的跨行交易就产生了\n如果你是银行\n你还真从纽约运一笔钱去西雅图吗\n那肯定不能这么干\n那怎么办呢\n银行一看\n咱们在美联储不都有个准备金账户吗\n直接咱们都在那里结算\n不就行了\n于是呢\nA银行在美联储的准备金账户就减一笔钱\nB银行就加一笔钱\n就改两个数字\n实际上钱一张没动\n结算就完成了\n好\n既然每天都有海量的转账\n在这些账户之间进进出出\n那每天结算下来\n必然会出现一个情况\n有的银行今天净流入\n账户里的钱多了\n有的银行呢\n净流出账户里的钱\n低于必须存在美联储的准备金的这个金额了\n那怎么办呢\n好吧\n钱少的银行呢\n就去找钱多的银行去借\n注意\n银行之间互相借的是比什么钱呢\n正是他们放在美联储的那一笔钱\n那笔准备金\n也就是刚才说的联邦基金\n那借多久呢\n就借一晚上\n第二天上午开业的时候\n就还回去\n这叫隔夜借贷\n另外银行之间借钱也得付利息\n这个银行之间隔夜借贷的利率\n就叫做联邦基金利率\n美联储要加息降级\n动的那个利率呢\n就是这笔银行之间隔夜借贷的这个利率\n就是联邦基金利率\n你不想要不要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不\n美联储已经把法定的准备金率\n注意是这个比率降到了零\n到今天都还是零\n也就是说法律已经不要求各个商业银行\n在美联储的账户里面存一分钱了\n既然法律不要求\n那银行还存吗\n存而且存的比以前要多得多\n为什么呢\n三个原因\n第一是清算需要\n刚才讲了\n各家银行都有大量的跨行转账\n要清算结算\n必须要用美联储的账户\n所以账户里面不能没有钱\n第二呢\n2008年金融危机之后\n监管要求大银行手上都必须要\n持有足够多的高品质流动资产\n准备金是最合格的那一种\n第三也是最直接的\n美联储从2008年10月开始\n也会给各个商业银行存在美联储的准备金付利息了\n钱放在美联储那里\n零风险还有钱赚\n那银行何乐而不为呢\n换句话说\n以前银行存准备金是法律逼着他们存\n今天银行往美联储的账上存准备金\n是因为他们自己想存\n银行们这个态度\n就让美联储发现了一个特别好用的关窍\n什么关窍呢\n前面说过\n美联储这100多年来任务就两条\n保持物价平稳和最大化就业\n手段就是通过加息和降息\n怎么加息和降息呢\n就是要让这个纽约联储银行去市场上\n卖掉几亿的美元国债\n然后把买进美元国债的商业银行\n账户里的那部分准备金部分的给收走\n一收走之后商业银行们就感觉到缺钱了\n彼此拆借的那个隔夜利率呢\n就会往上走\n加息就是这么加上去的\n而反过来要降息的时候呢\n美联储会把这个国债买进来\n把钱呢放出去\n放到各个商业银行的准备金的账户上\n银行们一看哎钱多了\n那么隔夜利率就是那个拆借的利率呢\n就会往下走\n美联储这个动作就叫做公开市场操作\n这么操作有个前提\n就是全美国商业银行存在美联储那里的准备金的总量比较少\n也就是几百亿美元的规模\n所以几亿美元国债的这个买卖它就能奏效\n但是2018年之后这套做法失效了\n原因还是金融危机\n金融危机以来市场上到处缺钱\n美联储就买进几万亿的证券\n包括美国国债公司债等\n洒出了大量的美元现金\n这些钱全部变成了各家商业银行\n在美联储账户里面的准备金\n于是这个准备金规模\n就从几百亿短短几个月\n暴涨到了几万亿的额度\n这就出现了一个新问题\n美联储如果还想用买卖几亿国债的\n这种传统的方法\n来推动这个利率上升或者下降\n已经没用了\n因为准备金总量变成了几万亿\n那么几亿的那个买卖\n那就是万分之一的波动\n完全可以忽略不计\n自然这个利率也就推不动了\n那怎么办呢\n这就是刚才我们讲的那个关窍的妙用了\n2008年10月开始\n美联储给准备金付利息\n当初这么做只是危机里面的应急措施\n结果美联储发现\n它付出去的这个利息本身\n就是一个全新的很好用的工具\n道理很简单\n各个商业银行的准备金放在美联储账上\n利率4% 零风险\n那么接下来会发生什么呢\n就是各商业银行\n对于低于4%的借款利率就看不上了\n因为躺在美联储的准备金的账上就有4%\n干嘛还冒着风险去赚那个低于4%的利息的这笔钱呢\n这样一来美联储付的这个利率就变成了整个市场的一个地板利率\n这个地板利率有个名字叫做准备金余额利率\n美联储要是想加息就不用再辛辛苦苦\n让这个纽约联储银行去卖国债抽钱了\n他只要动动嘴宣布\n从明天开始我付4.25%\n也就是加息0.25\n那么全市场的利率一看\n也就会跟着上来了\n方便吧\n方便\n但是这块地板也不是万无一失的\n地板边上还有一道缝\n什么缝呢\n因为能在美联储开准备金账户的\n只有个商业银行\n可是市场上还有一大批手握巨款的非银行机构\n最典型的就是货币市场基金\n他们开不了那个准备金账户\n踩不到这块地板\n拿不到准备金余额利率\n而他们的钱呢\n也得找地方过业\n所以银行就会摸准\n他们别无选择就加价\n说反正你也拿不到4%\n我出3.7%\n那你借给我吧\n这样一来市场上的利率呢\n就比美联储想要的那个\n地板价的利率又要低了\n这就是那道链锋\n那怎么办呢\n于是呢\n美联储在这个地板底下\n又垫了一层防漏垫\n就是让这些非银行机构\n也能把钱放进美联储过一晚拿利息\n当然这个利率就设计的比地板价\n也就是它给到银行的那个准备金余额利率要略低一点\n有了这层房漏电\n货币基金的腰杆也硬了\n抵御这个数我还不如放美联储呢\n那这样一来\n美联储想要的那个最低利率\n它就漏不下去了\n这个比地板要低的房漏电子\n有一个名字叫做隔夜逆回购利率\n好\n这样一来利率下限就有两层防护\n那么利率的上限呢\n美联储手里面还有一件老工具叫贴线\n任何银行缺钱都可以直接找美联储借\n利率是明码标价的\n比这个准备金余额利率这个地板价要高一节\n这就是天花板利率\n为什么又要设这个利率天花板呢\n美联储防的就是市场上那些\n趁着缺钱之际漫天叫价去抬高利率的这种行径\n高于这个利率\n那么缺钱的银行机构就可以直接找美联储去了\n美联储自己就可以印出钱来给他们无限量\n于是高利率的上限也就被锁死了\n上下这么一家\n银行之间那个联邦基金利率\n就乖乖的呆在美联储指定的这个区间里面\n而这三个数字全部是美联储自己单方面说了算\n不用再去买卖什么国债了\n也不用动任何银行的账户\n只要动动嘴改三个数字\n加息就完成了\n这就是2008年之后加息的新玩法\n一句话总结这个新旧之别\n那以前加息呢\n美联储还要去靠买卖国债来抽各商业银行\n存在他那里的那个准备金账户里面的钱\n现在不用了\n加息就靠改这三个区间数字就完工\n可是这三个区间数字指的是隔夜利率\n也就只有银行和基金才能碰得到\n它是怎么一路跑到我们的房贷股票月供上的呢\n但是这个影响啊\n它是一站一站的传导过来的\n第一站先影响到银行的资金成本\n前面讲过\n银行放在美联储能拿到的利息变高了\n还无风险\n所以呢\n它对外放款的最低要求也就会跟着变高\n美联储一旦提高0.25\n那么银行放贷出去的利率呢\n至少也就会提高0.25\n第二站\n影响就影响到了最优惠利率\n美国商业银行给最优质的企业客户的贷款利率\n惯例是在刚才讲的那个目标区间\n上线再加三个百分点\n美联储要是移动\n银行当天或者隔天\n就会把这个最优惠利率跟着往上调\n信用卡车贷房屋净值信用额度\n这类的浮动利率的贷款\n大多是挂在它上面的\n所以几天之内也会跟着动\n第三影响就传导到了企业端\n企业的借鉴成本上升了\n投资决策就要重新算\n同时股票估值也会受影响\n最后一战影响到了总需求\n企业也好 居民也好 借钱变贵了 存钱变得更值钱了\n那要多久才会见效呢\n从美联储动手加息到物价上涨泛慢\n通胀缓解\n通常要12个月到18个月\n记住这个时间差后面还会用到\n好\n到这里我们就把加息是怎么加的\n加了之后会怎么影响这个发生机制传导链条给讲清楚了\n现在再回头补上一点\n谁来决定加息减息\n是美联储主席一个人说了算吗\n直接给答案\n不是他一个人拍板的\n是一个12人委员会\n叫做联邦公开市场委员会\n开会来投票决定的\n总共12票\n那是哪12票呢\n前面说过\n美联储最上面一层\n理事会七位理事\n一人一票\n加上执行层里面\n最重要的那位\n纽约联储银行主席\n8票\n这是固定票\n那么其他11家地区银行的主席\n来分剩下的4张票\n也不用抢\n轮流有\n一年一轮\n那没有轮到的七位呢\n照常出席会议\n照常发言只是不投票\n是什么样的会议呢\n会议叫议席会\n一个会议的过程是这样子的\n会前一两周幕僚就会发两套材料\n第一套叫Tierbook\nA策是经济预测\nB策是几种政策选项和各自的后果\n这一套是不对外公开的\n这是第一套\n第二套叫贺皮书\n是12家地区联储银行收集的\n本地的企业银行劳动市场的一线情况\n这一套可以对外公开\n那么同一时间\n联储主席比如现任的卧时\n他就会和每一位委员单独谈话\n这一步在公开流程里面看不到\n但是共识大部分在这个时候就形成了\n好 这是会前\n那么到了正式开会是开两天\n第二天大家得轮流表态\n到底是加是捡还是不动\n惯例上呢\n主席最后发言提出建议\n然后投票\n一人一票出结果\n美东时间下午两点发声明\n两点半主席开记者会\n和传媒直接沟通\n为什么要这么决定\n那这个时间呢\n恰好是台北香港的凌晨两三点钟\n那具体投票的时候\n主席有几票呢\n一票\n跟其他11个人一样\n这里就要进行第三个误解的修整\n加不加息\n不是主席一个人定的\n那美联储主席\n不就和其他的理事委员一样了吗\n不\n他的权力很大\n是大在投票之外的\n另外其他四个地方\n第一呢\n那份会后声明\n他的初稿呢\n是主席团队写的\n其他人最多是在搞字上改\n很少推翻重来\n第二\n议程和发言的顺序\n由主席安排\n讨论什么\n往哪个方向讨论\n由主席来定\n第三\n会前那一轮一对一的沟通\n好的联储主席在开会之前\n就会知道每个人的立场\n有分歧\n这个时候就处理掉了\n会上不会出意外\n第四\n记者会是主席的个人舞台\n12个人投票决定结果\n但是只有主席一个人\n面对全世界来解释这个结果\n他用哪些词\n又用一种什么样的态度讲出来\n很大程度上就可以影响到市场\n怎么理解这个决定\n所以在历史上\n主席的立场被委员会否决的情况几乎没有\n而且反对票通常也就一到两票\n三票都算多的\n超过三票会被视为这个委员会开始分裂了\n好 流程讲完了\n听到这里你也只会说\n那不挺简单的吗\n考试选择题还有四个选项呢\n美联储这么大张旗鼓全球瞩目\n没想到就两个动作\n加息减息\n这么说不全面\n因为除了加息减息之外\n不加不解也就是不动\n也是一个动作\n为什么不动也是一个动作呢\n难道不动也能达成美联储\n稳定物价充分就业\n这两个法定任务吗\n听着有点反直觉对吧\n其实这个背后是有坚实逻辑的\n我们来看一下\n逻辑是这么起效的\n任何金融资产\n今天的价格其实并不完全\n就是当下的价格\n那是什么呢\n是吧\n未来的希望用预期的这杆秤\n折算成今天的金粮\n听起来晕了吗\n举个例子\n假设你手里面有一张面额1万美元\n每年固定派4%利息的10年期美国国债\n那接下来遇到了两种情况\n情况A\n如果大家预期未来利率一成不变\n那就还是稳稳的在4%\n那么这张债券\n今天的价格\n明天的价格就还是在1万美元\n没有变化\n再看情况B\n如果今天中午突然公布了\n一份超强的就业数据\n比如失业率都降到2.5%了\n全民就业了\n人人有工作\n那说明经济非常好\n下一步就有可能过热\n听了前面你就会知道\n美联储很有可能\n要去加息保物价稳定了\n当市场瞬间产生了这个预期\n就是未来几年\n美联储会把利率一路往上升\n甚至升到6%\n这个时候\n这张债券今天的价格\n就会发生变化\n会怎么发生变化呢\n请注意\n它未来的现金流\n没有任何改变\n未来十年仍然是每年给你400美元的回报\n但是投资人会想\n既然未来的市场利率预期会到6%\n那么这张4%的债券那就不够看了\n要卖也不会有人按照1万美元的面值来买了\n除非他打折卖\n这个要求债券打折卖的动作就说明\n折现率改变了\n怎么变的呢\n必须要折算到新的价格\n能够补足未来那2%的预期利差\n这张债券才能卖掉\n注意啊\n这个折算是在预期改变的同时就会发生\n债券今天就在跌\n股票估值呢\n今天就会下调\n银行今天就会把新的贷款利率往上提\n哪怕此时此刻\n真实的利率并没有变\n还是4%\n但是市场已经跟着预期反映起来了\n这就是价格取决于未来预期\n预期一变\n价格就会跟着变\n而不会慢吞吞的等到那个决定\n真正执行的时候\n价格才变\n那理解了这个我们就能知道\n美联储的每一次议席会\n市场其实都提前压住了一个预期\n如果加息市场早就预料到了\n那么在预期形成的那一刻\n加息就已经开始影响价格了\n就已经在加了\n到正式宣布加息那天\n反而会波澜不惊\n那一天的注意力就不在这个加息本身\n而是在美联储主席的声明\n还有记者会里面的措辞态度\n还有没有还会在家的这个暗示\n那解息呢\n这个过程也一样\n在预期形成的那一刻\n解息就已经在减\n已经在影响价格了\n等到美联储正式宣布的那一天\n市场也不看解息本身\n而是去看声明提到的背景\n比如到底是通胀回落之后的\n从容调整呢\n还是经济出事之后的紧急救火呢\n如果是前者那就是好消息\n后者呢就是坏消息\n是去判断这个\n而不再是解息本身了\n所以你看\n加息也好\n解息也好\n市场的反应都不在动作本身\n而是在动作透露出的下一步\n也就是那个新的预期\n那不动呢\n不动预示出的东西往往更多\n市场立刻就会追问\n说好的加息呢\n是美联储看到了还没有公开的坏数据吗\n还是内部炒翻了\n达不成共识\n还是总统的压力起到了作用\n你看每一种猜测都会直接变成价格波动\n而且呢\n不加不减这个不动\n它的含义还得要看环境\n要是通胀往下走时不动\n那叫耐心\n要是通胀往上走时还不动\n那就叫放任\n市场一旦把不动\n独成了不敢动\n它就会自己动手\n怎么动手呢\n就要求更高的长期利率来补偿\n它认为美联储央行\n不会去管的那部分通胀\n好 再来复习一遍\n市场买卖的从来都不是美联储的动作\n而是美联储的下一步\n既然预期才是真正的标的\n下一个问题自然就会冒出来了\n美联储\n你不想要去做什麼?\n你不想要去做什麼?\n你不想要去做什麼?\n你不想要去做什麼?\n你不想要去做什麼?\n你不想要去做什麼?\n你不想要去做什麼?\n所谓前瞻之影 意思就是美联储公开告诉市场自己未来大概率会怎么做\n那么这么一个能直接管理预期的工具是怎么出现的呢\n还是要到2008年 金融危机之后 美联储接连降息来提振经济\n最后都降到接近零了 没办法再降了 但是经济还需要刺激 怎么办\n当时的美联储主席伯南克 他后来有句谜言叫\n叫货币政策98%靠嘴巴\n2%才靠行动\n什么意思呢\n就是直接告诉市场\n美联储接下来一段时间将要干什么\n那用什么办法告诉市场呢\n很直接\n在2008年底\n那次一席会议后的利率决议声明中\n布南克第一次把承诺常规化了\n声明说利率会在很长一段时间内保持极低\n三个月之后\n他觉得力道还不够\n又升级了这句话\n叫集体的利率还会保持更长时间\n到2012年\n钱瞻指引这个工具\n又多添了一个零件\n叫点正图\n从名字就能知道个大概\n那19个委员会的成员\n每人匿名画一个点\n点在哪呢\n点在自己认为今年年底\n明年年底利率该在什么位置的那个地方\n比如应该是在4.5呢\n还是应该提高到5呢\n又或是应该回到4呢\n那么这19个点\n印在一张图上对外公布\n你想想这意味着什么\n这等于是美联储把自己未来一到两年的打算\n直接画成了图给市场看\n市场连猜都不用猜了\n照着这个点阵图的中位数去定价就行\n那有没有效果呢\n有效果\n从2008年到2015年\n长期利率被成功压低了\n全球债券价格迎来了一波史诗级的暴涨\n进入危机时\n跌到低位的股市上演了一波世纪大牛市\n资产价格也翻倍了\n而最奇特的变化出现在人们的心理层面\n人们出现了一种奇特的认知扭曲\n扭曲是什么了\n扭曲成坏消息就是好消息\n那有些朋友听到这里应该是会心一笑了\n对\n就比如每当美国公布很差劲的经济数据的时候\n市场非但不怕\n反而是极力欢呼\n因为市场预期经济这么差\n美联储就绝对不敢升息\n甚至还会继续量化宽松继续发钱\n这就叫预期回过头来绑架了现实\n美联储被绑架了吗\n被绑架了\n就比如2021年下半年\n美国的通胀明显抬头\n从数据看应该加息了\n但是美联储之前已经公开给过一张时间表\n那按照这张时间表的规划\n加息时点还没到\n那到底是听这个真实通胀数据的\n还是听时间表的呢\n美联储选择了\n听时间表的\n时任主席鲍威尔拖到2022年3月才加息\n结果呢三个月之后2022年6月通胀率来到了9.1%\n是40年来的最高\n这就是预期绑架了现实反噬了所有人\n那被反噬之后美联储就开始反思\n我们啊是不是话说的太多承诺给的太满了\n是不是应该换个新主席\n就是那种少说预期少画点正图不做承诺的人\n来保留调控利率的主动权呢\n2026年这种风格的新主席上任了\n就是今天影片的主角沃什\n凯文沃什2026年是56岁\n摩根斯坦利出生\n56岁在金融圈还算是很年轻的\n但他已经是美联储的老人了\n2006年他还美满36岁的时候\n就曾经担任过美联储的理事\n是史上最年轻的联储局的理事\n2008年金融危机期间\n他还是伯南克的核心副手\n直接参与救世\n但是他和当时的美联储主流之间\n一直有一道裂缝\n等到2010年11月\n联储局搞第二轮量化宽松的时候\n他虽然投了支持票\n但是几天后还是在华尔街日报上发文章\n质疑这个量化宽松政策\n几个月之后卧室离任\n此后十几年呢\n他一直都在批评当时美联储的那种风格\n就是说话太多承诺太满\n被市场牵着走\n到了2025年\n他又公开主张\nAI能大幅提高生产力\n让物价压力变小\n所以利率可以更低\n也许是这句话被川普听见了\n2026年沃时被川普提名为\n新任的美联储主席人学\n五月就任\n一上任\n沃时就对此前的那种风格下手了\n议席会议之后的声明\n压缩到了短短132个字\n所有关于未来路径的措辞\n全部删掉\n那个利率预测的点证图\n虽然还是照发\n但是他自己那个点呢\n他不交\n因此呢\n历史性的只出现了18个点\n而不是往常的19个点\n他还成立了五个工作小组\n其中一个专门检讨\n此前那种说话太多的沟通方式\n卧市的态度那再清楚不过了\n不给时间表\n不做承诺\n加息减息\n我们说了算\n态度虽然很清晰\n但是市场却普遍认为\n它身上还是有三层矛盾\n具体又是什么矛盾呢\n第一层矛盾是它的理念\n市场听到了它此前说过\nAI让利率可以更低\n这一类的理念\n可是落在行动上却是加息\n前后只隔了一年\n卧市同志就变结了吗\n不完全是\n他的完整观点一直是两方面的\n从长期看供给面的进步\n的确能让利率压得更低\n但是在短期内通胀必须先压回去\n两方面并不矛盾\n只是时间尺度不同\n第二次矛盾是他的立场和独立性\n川普提名了卧石\n为什么提名他呢\n2026年1月川普说过\n答应这样子的一段话\n说这些人面试的时候\n说的全是我想听的\n一上任就变成我们加一点息吧\n你看川普这两句话现在都应验了\n到2026年9月\n白宫只好说加息总统不会高兴的\n但是总统会捍卫美联储的独立性\n但川普的态度也很明确\n美国利率就应该是全世界最低的\n那接下来卧石会怎么做呢\n未来还能保持它的独立性吗\n市场仍然需要去继续观察它\n这是第二次矛盾\n第三次矛盾\n是它的方法本身\n卧石是明确反对前瞻之影的\n但他又说了\n通胀要是下不来 我们就有工作要做\n这句话本身不就是前瞻之影吗\n你看 敏感的市场它就会这么解读\n所以卧石自己特意补了一句\n不要把这叫做前瞻之影\n那市场认为的这个矛盾成立吗\n我觉得卧石反对的只是时间表而不是原则\n有工作要做 没说时间 没说幅度\n只是给了一个反应逻辑\n通胀下不来 咱们就行动这个逻辑\n这种风格的美联储主席\n简单总结成一句话\n那就是他宁可让市场多承受那种不确定性\n也要换取每次议席会按数据重新做决定的自由\n这种风格好处是灵活\n代价是波动会更大\n长期利率里的风险补偿会更高\n那么像卧食这种风格的美联储主席是特例吗\n答案很明确不是特例\n美联储100年来的历史其实就只有一句话\n松过头了然后紧过头\n紧过头之后呢\n然后又松过头\n我们重点看两个人\n第一位伯恩斯\n1970年代的主席\n算是反面教材\n他的问题不是不加息\n是加的不痛不痒\n通胀一上来他就加一点\n失业一上升\n白宫一施压他就马上又放手\n那么几次下来市场就看穿了\n这个人不会动真格\n那市场看穿之后就会发生什么\n工会谈工资\n直接按照明年物价会上涨8%去谈\n企业定价也是直接按\n成本要涨8%去定\n所有人都按照高通账去行动\n高通账就真的来了\n这就是预期失准\n这一摊子的,他算是个正面教材\n他做的事情只有一届\n就是让市场重新相信美联储能说到做到\n虽然代价极高\n1981年联邦基金利率\n咱们前面提到过的那个\n一度提到接近20%\n这么高的利率带来了两次衰退\n失业率超过了10%\n甚至农民开着拖拉机到美联储门口去抗议\n但是铁腕之下\n通胀的确是压回去了\n更重要的是\n美联储说到做到的信用重新建起来了\n这笔重新建立起来的信用\n让之后40年每一任美联储主席都从中受益\n格林斯潘长期低利率和大繁荣靠他\n伯南克金融危机的时候敢于把准备金从几百亿放大到几万亿\n市场还是相信美联储能控得住场靠的也还是他\n等到鲍威尔在疫情期间无限量化宽松靠的还是他\n那你会问 为什么美联储100年来总在这个松紧之间来回摆\n好好的固定在中间 不行吗\n不是不想 是做不到\n三个原因前面都讲过了 这里快速复习一下\n第一 美联储两条法定任务是天生打架的\n压通胀必然就会伤就业 保就业必然会带来通胀\n政策只能在两端之间摆\n第二 利率这根传导的链条一般要12个月到18个月的实质\n就是时差\n等看到效果往往已经做过头了\n只好反向再来一遍\n第三\n政治永远只会偏向一边\n当经济好的时候\n没人想要踩刹车\n所以呢\n刹车总是会踩晚\n而踩晚呢\n就得踩中\n那么踩中了呢\n又得去补放松\n那2026年\n美国经济的情况\n像历史上的哪一段呢\n这里有个好消息\n那就是谁都不想\n卧室面对的\n只是供给侧的冲击\n也就是石油稳定供应出了问题\n原因大家也清楚\n中东战火纷飞\n一时看不到停下来的迹象\n好在美国的就业还算稳\n核心通胀还在往下走\n所以卧室面对的不是超级难题\n虽然他要对付那个通胀靠加息治不了\n但他要治的也不是油价\n而是要恢复大家相信美联储能够把通胀\n维持在2%左右的这个信心\n而且正如他自己所说\n美国持续65个月的高通胀\n责任完全在央行就是美联储\n也应当由美联储来承担\n所以哪怕核心通帐率再改善\n它仍然要选择动手\n好 讲了这么多\n那这一切对我们普通人的钱包意味着什么呢\n我们以后又该怎么去解读这一些市场消息呢\n赵丽娅我们给一个清单\n对北美的观众\n30年固定的房贷看的是10年期国债利率\n不是联邦基金利率\n所以与其去追加息新闻\n不如直接去看10年期收益率有没有变化\n而信用卡车贷房屋净值信用额度\n是挂在这个最优惠利率上的\n美联储一动几天之内\n这个也就会跟着动\n不过呢储蓄账户和货币基金的利率呢\n也会跟着涨\n如果存款多那就更有利\n香港的观众\n港元和美元是联系汇率\n香港金管局的基本利率是跟着美联储波动的\n香港大多数房贷是浮动利率\n美联储的决定会直接反映在接下来一段时间的月供上\n台湾的观众\n这个影响会通过三条路径传导进来\n一是汇率\n美元的利率一高\n台币通常就要承压\n二是出口\n加息影响了美国的需求变化\n从而影响台湾的订单\n第三是售协业\n台湾的售协公司持有大量的美国的长债\n长期利率一波动\n那么资产的价值变动就会比较大\n一句话\n加息之后借钱的受损\n存钱的受益\n吃长债的就要去看长端利率\n那么以后每次议席会议的消息如何解读呢\n有六条方法供大家参考\n第一条最简洁就是看决定\n到底是加是结还是不动\n第二呢看票数\n更要看反对票的票数和方向\n反对票要是有三票以上\n那就说明委员会是分裂的\n就要看反对者反对的是什么\n是嫌这个结果不够呢\n还是嫌结果过头了\n看懂这个咱们就能知道\n这个12人委员会的重心在朝什么方向移动\n就是那个方向\n第三 看声明的数字和措辞\n有没有进一步额外持续\n等这一类暗示下一步的词\n要是字数突然还变少了\n通常是卧时这位主席在收回引导\n第四 看那个点证图\n后续还会不会继续发这个点证图\n每一次那个中位数呢有没有动\n包括卧时这位主席还交不交他的判断点\n那看这个是看什么呢\n是看卧石对自己的风格路径有没有信心\n好 第五呢 看记者会\n当这个卧石被问到下一步的时候\n是给时间表还是给原则\n要是还给时间表\n那咱们就可以照着定价\n要是给原则呢\n那就说明美联储不跟市场交底了\n不给预期了\n美联储就会去看数据\n咱们自己也就要去看数据了\n第六也是最重要的\n看十年期和三十年期的国债收益率\n在议席会声明发布之后的方向\n什么意思呢\n就是在加息之后长端利率下降\n那就说明市场相信美联储在认真做事\n这是一次成功的加息\n要是加息之后长端利率反而是上升的\n那就说明市场觉得美联储做的还不够\n或者就是不信美联储\n那么这是加息\n如果接下来美联储做出不加不减\n不动的这个决定之后\n这个长端利率再上升\n那就说明市场就把这个不动\n解读成了美联储不敢动\n那这些指标都挺复杂的\n咱们就都慢慢来慢慢看慢慢学\n好今天就是这么一些\n如果这一期对你有帮助呢\n欢迎您订阅转发\n如果大家支持我\n请您加入会员频道\n会员频道每个月有1到3期的专属节目\n我们下期再见", "language": "zh", "duration": 2255.841813, "segments": [ { "start": 0.0, "end": 29.9, "text": "今天我們來講美聯儲加息。2026年1月,美國總統川普說,他要選一位會降息的人來當美聯儲主席。5月,凱文沃時上任。結果呢,這位被川普選來降息的美聯儲主席,8月底首次重大政策演講的時候,他說啊,如果通脹不回落,我們就有工作要做了。那市長聽懂了,他說的是加息。請注意這三件事情。第一,一個被總統選來降息的人,再考慮加息。第二呢,", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11207387321873714, "no_speech_prob": 8.294098047256782e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4082278481012658 }, { "start": 30.0, "end": 34.62, "text": "他要对付的那个物价涨幅超过三分之一来自油价", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 34.62, "end": 37.48, "text": "而加息对油价几乎没有办法", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 37.48, "end": 39.78, "text": "第三呢 剔除食物和能源", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 39.78, "end": 42.66, "text": "年核心通胀率只有2.4%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 42.66, "end": 44.4, "text": "其实还在往下走", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 44.4, "end": 46.04, "text": "数字明明在改善", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 46.04, "end": 47.48, "text": "他却仍然要动手", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 47.48, "end": 50.1, "text": "这三件事情放在一处是处处矛盾", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 50.1, "end": 52.08, "text": "但是这三个矛盾", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 52.08, "end": 54.72, "text": "恰恰是看懂美联储的一次好机会", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 54.72, "end": 57.4, "text": "今天我们就把美联储这道机制", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 57.4, "end": 58.84, "text": "从头到尾讲透彻", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10330519539969309, "no_speech_prob": 2.2198000382278593e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2532467532467533 }, { "start": 58.84, "end": 60.16, "text": "美联储是什么", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 60.16, "end": 61.84, "text": "利率怎么运作", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 61.84, "end": 64.1, "text": "加不加息这个决定怎么做出来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 64.1, "end": 67.06, "text": "为什么一百年来美联储每隔一段时间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 67.06, "end": 69.32, "text": "总会在同样的地方跌倒一次", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 69.32, "end": 70.3, "text": "看完之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 70.3, "end": 73.22, "text": "在有关美联储加息还是降息的新闻", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 73.22, "end": 74.74, "text": "你就不需要任何分析师", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 74.74, "end": 75.96, "text": "自己就能读得懂", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 75.96, "end": 76.74, "text": "老规矩", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 76.74, "end": 78.44, "text": "我们先打基础", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 78.44, "end": 80.36, "text": "这位卧食的矛盾之处", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 80.36, "end": 81.78, "text": "我们先往后放一放", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 81.78, "end": 83.94, "text": "影片的后半段再回来说它", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 83.94, "end": 85.32, "text": "先来看第一个问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 85.32, "end": 88.02, "text": "美联储到底是谁的美联储", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11143853234463051, "no_speech_prob": 1.798070373149052e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 88.02, "end": 90.84, "text": "对于美联储的误解大致分为两派", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 90.84, "end": 93.22, "text": "一派认为它是美国政府的一个部门", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 93.22, "end": 94.18, "text": "听总统的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 94.18, "end": 96.94, "text": "另一派认为它是华尔街的代言人", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 96.94, "end": 98.42, "text": "听资本家的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 98.42, "end": 100.2, "text": "这里要进行第一个误解的修正", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 100.2, "end": 101.5, "text": "两派都不对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 101.5, "end": 104.62, "text": "美联储全名联邦储备系统", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 104.62, "end": 106.02, "text": "台湾叫联准会", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 106.02, "end": 108.76, "text": "1913年由国会立法成立", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 108.76, "end": 110.16, "text": "是美国的中央银行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 110.16, "end": 112.3, "text": "虽然是美国的中央银行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 112.3, "end": 114.04, "text": "但是它并非政府部门", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 114.04, "end": 115.92, "text": "总统不能对它下命令", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 115.92, "end": 117.88, "text": "它也不是华尔街的傀儡", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08055908092554065, "no_speech_prob": 1.6362184176998973e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5088339222614842 }, { "start": 117.88, "end": 120.28, "text": "但为什么会有这两个误解呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 120.28, "end": 122.6, "text": "这都来自他独特的两层结构", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 122.6, "end": 124.04, "text": "我们看一眼就明白了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 124.04, "end": 128.04, "text": "两层结构的上面一层在华盛顿叫理事会", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 128.04, "end": 131.46, "text": "七名理事由总统提名参议院通过", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 131.46, "end": 132.92, "text": "任期14年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 132.92, "end": 136.36, "text": "注意这个14年比总统的任期还长呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 136.36, "end": 136.94, "text": "长得多", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 136.94, "end": 139.36, "text": "可能三任总统都换完了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 139.36, "end": 140.86, "text": "一位理事还没有到期", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 140.86, "end": 142.94, "text": "这会带来一个什么结果呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 142.94, "end": 146.64, "text": "结果是这种制度可以保证理事的独立性", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10628644769841974, "no_speech_prob": 2.117268860235555e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3832752613240418 }, { "start": 146.64, "end": 147.94, "text": "由总统提名", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 147.94, "end": 149.3, "text": "但是可以不听总统的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 149.3, "end": 150.82, "text": "那么这七位理事中", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 150.82, "end": 152.16, "text": "会产生一位主席", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 152.16, "end": 152.9, "text": "一位副主席", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 152.9, "end": 154.32, "text": "主席任期四年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 154.32, "end": 155.16, "text": "可以连任", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 155.16, "end": 157.0, "text": "开头讲的那位卧石", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 157.0, "end": 158.98, "text": "就是这七人理事之一", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 158.98, "end": 160.42, "text": "同时担任主席", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 160.42, "end": 163.22, "text": "这是两层结构的上面一层", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 163.22, "end": 164.5, "text": "那么下面一层呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 164.5, "end": 167.48, "text": "是12家地区联邦储备银行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 167.48, "end": 170.84, "text": "分布在纽约芝加哥旧金山的12个城市", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 170.84, "end": 172.68, "text": "私人银行傀儡论", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 172.68, "end": 174.62, "text": "就是从这里诞生出来的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 174.62, "end": 176.3, "text": "这12家地区联邦储备银行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09914039273567388, "no_speech_prob": 1.72236808149151e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734982332155477 }, { "start": 176.3, "end": 181.16, "text": "在法律形式上确实是由各地的商业银行入股组成", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 181.16, "end": 183.26, "text": "但是这些股份不能买卖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 183.26, "end": 185.62, "text": "商业银行也没有任何的决策权", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 185.62, "end": 189.64, "text": "纯粹是1913年那个立法留下来的历史形式", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 189.64, "end": 192.7, "text": "这12家地区联储银行平时都干嘛呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 192.7, "end": 195.2, "text": "做上层理事会的执行机构", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 195.2, "end": 197.6, "text": "其中纽约联储银行最为重要", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 197.6, "end": 200.3, "text": "因为美联储所有在市场上的操作", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 200.3, "end": 202.12, "text": "都由它来执行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 202.12, "end": 203.72, "text": "好 结构搞清楚了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 203.72, "end": 205.3, "text": "那么美联储要做什么呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08534435431162517, "no_speech_prob": 1.2698167170532848e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.340983606557377 }, { "start": 205.3, "end": 208.06, "text": "国会给他的法定任务只有两条", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 208.06, "end": 210.5, "text": "稳定物价最大就业", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 210.5, "end": 214.92, "text": "稳定物价操作上就是年通胀率维持在20%左右", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 214.92, "end": 217.58, "text": "这是2012年正式写下来的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 217.58, "end": 219.9, "text": "最大就业没有一个固定数字", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 219.9, "end": 222.38, "text": "一般失业率在4%上下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 222.38, "end": 226.52, "text": "就算是全球都公认的接近全民就业的这个指标", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 226.52, "end": 229.36, "text": "那才两条任务听起来很简单吧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 229.36, "end": 230.22, "text": "不简单", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 230.22, "end": 233.02, "text": "因为这两条任务是互相打架的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10645169849637189, "no_speech_prob": 1.3207496728229184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3432835820895523 }, { "start": 233.02, "end": 237.82, "text": "稳定物价 那么通胀就必须要压住 不让物价飞涨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 237.82, "end": 242.3, "text": "那么要压住通胀的手段呢 就是加息 让经济降温", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 242.3, "end": 246.96, "text": "但是经济一降温 公司不扩张 不请人了 失业率就容易上来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 246.96, "end": 252.56, "text": "最大就业就没了 那么反过来呢 保就业就要降息 让经济升温", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 252.56, "end": 255.26, "text": "而升温通常也会抬高物价", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 255.26, "end": 259.78, "text": "所以呢 美联储每一个决定 本质上都是在这两个任务之间呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 259.78, "end": 261.82, "text": "要取一个中间的平衡位置", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09753744029466001, "no_speech_prob": 1.6968043289877777e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4383561643835616 }, { "start": 261.82, "end": 263.5, "text": "记住这个此消彼长", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 263.5, "end": 265.54, "text": "它是后面所有故事的引擎", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 265.54, "end": 269.54, "text": "包括100年来美联储的每一次翻车都翻车在这里", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 269.54, "end": 272.96, "text": "这两个法庭任务既然都要靠同一个工具", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 272.96, "end": 273.82, "text": "就是那个利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 273.82, "end": 275.42, "text": "那么下一个问题自然就来了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 275.42, "end": 277.68, "text": "各式各样的利率这么的多", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 277.68, "end": 282.64, "text": "美联储加利率或者降利率动的都是哪个利率呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 282.64, "end": 285.24, "text": "先给大家动的不是别的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 285.24, "end": 288.32, "text": "只是联邦基金利率这一个利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 288.32, "end": 289.72, "text": "准确的说呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 289.72, "end": 291.4, "text": "它是一个目标区间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10898036378802675, "no_speech_prob": 2.1507585643010252e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4242424242424243 }, { "start": 291.4, "end": 293.2, "text": "宽0.25个百分点", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 293.2, "end": 295.44, "text": "2026年9月一席会议之前", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 295.44, "end": 299.24, "text": "这个区间是在3.5到3.75之间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 299.24, "end": 301.98, "text": "新闻里面常常说的那个加息一码", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 301.98, "end": 304.54, "text": "指的就是把整个利率区间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 304.54, "end": 307.98, "text": "往上移0.25个百分点加息一码", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 307.98, "end": 311.56, "text": "那么这笔联邦基金又是一笔什么钱呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 311.56, "end": 312.64, "text": "按照美国法律", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 312.64, "end": 315.96, "text": "每家商业银行在美联储都必须有一个账户", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 315.96, "end": 317.5, "text": "账户里面都必须有一笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 317.5, "end": 318.82, "text": "叫做准备金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 318.82, "end": 320.4, "text": "为什么要有准备金呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08206657741380774, "no_speech_prob": 2.236718449344366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3745583038869258 }, { "start": 320.4, "end": 324.94, "text": "最初的设计是为了应付客户的大额提现或者是支付", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 324.94, "end": 326.96, "text": "必须要有一笔足够多的钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 326.96, "end": 331.36, "text": "保底能给不能把所有的钱都让银行放贷给放出去了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 331.36, "end": 335.8, "text": "以前但凡开银行都必须要在美联储存这么一笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 335.8, "end": 339.38, "text": "那么多商业银行都往美联储存这么一笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 339.38, "end": 341.48, "text": "美联储账上就有了一大笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 341.48, "end": 346.42, "text": "这笔各个商业银行存在这里的钱就叫做联邦基金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07033657165895026, "no_speech_prob": 1.508710691100479e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 346.42, "end": 347.84, "text": "时代发展之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 347.84, "end": 350.06, "text": "越来越多的人就不再取现金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 350.06, "end": 351.42, "text": "搬现金给现金了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 351.42, "end": 352.34, "text": "而是转账", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 352.34, "end": 353.58, "text": "买个东西也好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 353.58, "end": 354.54, "text": "交笔费用也好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 354.54, "end": 356.92, "text": "钱直接从纽约的A银行的账户", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 356.92, "end": 359.92, "text": "转到西雅图B银行的账户就搞定了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 359.92, "end": 361.16, "text": "可是这样一来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 361.16, "end": 363.64, "text": "大量的跨行交易就产生了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 363.64, "end": 365.1, "text": "如果你是银行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 365.1, "end": 368.02, "text": "你还真从纽约运一笔钱去西雅图吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 368.02, "end": 369.2, "text": "那肯定不能这么干", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 369.2, "end": 370.16, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 370.16, "end": 370.96, "text": "银行一看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 370.96, "end": 374.26, "text": "咱们在美联储不都有个准备金账户吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 374.26, "end": 376.4, "text": "直接咱们都在那里结算", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09100263728651889, "no_speech_prob": 1.637524144060265e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4113924050632911 }, { "start": 376.4, "end": 377.08, "text": "不就行了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 377.08, "end": 378.08, "text": "于是呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 378.08, "end": 381.54, "text": "A银行在美联储的准备金账户就减一笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 381.54, "end": 383.64, "text": "B银行就加一笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 383.64, "end": 384.8, "text": "就改两个数字", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 384.8, "end": 386.86, "text": "实际上钱一张没动", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 386.86, "end": 388.28, "text": "结算就完成了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 388.28, "end": 388.94, "text": "好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 388.94, "end": 391.26, "text": "既然每天都有海量的转账", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 391.26, "end": 393.38, "text": "在这些账户之间进进出出", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 393.38, "end": 394.9, "text": "那每天结算下来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 394.9, "end": 396.36, "text": "必然会出现一个情况", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 396.36, "end": 398.52, "text": "有的银行今天净流入", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 398.52, "end": 400.04, "text": "账户里的钱多了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 400.04, "end": 401.06, "text": "有的银行呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 401.06, "end": 402.86, "text": "净流出账户里的钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 402.86, "end": 406.06, "text": "低于必须存在美联储的准备金的这个金额了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11270296807382621, "no_speech_prob": 2.13529870868312e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.469964664310954 }, { "start": 406.06, "end": 407.22, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 407.22, "end": 407.58, "text": "好吧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 407.58, "end": 408.98, "text": "钱少的银行呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 408.98, "end": 411.14, "text": "就去找钱多的银行去借", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 411.14, "end": 411.98, "text": "注意", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 411.98, "end": 414.34, "text": "银行之间互相借的是比什么钱呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 414.34, "end": 417.06, "text": "正是他们放在美联储的那一笔钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 417.06, "end": 417.84, "text": "那笔准备金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 417.84, "end": 420.16, "text": "也就是刚才说的联邦基金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 420.16, "end": 421.58, "text": "那借多久呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 421.58, "end": 422.54, "text": "就借一晚上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 422.54, "end": 424.12, "text": "第二天上午开业的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 424.12, "end": 425.36, "text": "就还回去", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 425.36, "end": 426.92, "text": "这叫隔夜借贷", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 426.92, "end": 430.2, "text": "另外银行之间借钱也得付利息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 430.2, "end": 433.34, "text": "这个银行之间隔夜借贷的利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 433.34, "end": 435.56, "text": "就叫做联邦基金利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10669667884786294, "no_speech_prob": 1.4414402831064432e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4779411764705883 }, { "start": 435.56, "end": 437.7, "text": "美联储要加息降级", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13802719967705862, "no_speech_prob": 8.686973015925581e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0434782608695652 }, { "start": 437.7, "end": 438.72, "text": "动的那个利率呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13802719967705862, "no_speech_prob": 8.686973015925581e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0434782608695652 }, { "start": 438.72, "end": 442.54, "text": "就是这笔银行之间隔夜借贷的这个利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13802719967705862, "no_speech_prob": 8.686973015925581e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0434782608695652 }, { "start": 442.54, "end": 444.06, "text": "就是联邦基金利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13802719967705862, "no_speech_prob": 8.686973015925581e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0434782608695652 }, { "start": 444.46, "end": 459.46, "text": "你不想要不要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不想要翻譯成英文。你不", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16858840942382813, "no_speech_prob": 8.275483596997812e-12, "compression_ratio": 11.547169811320755 }, { "start": 459.46, "end": 461.86, "text": "美联储已经把法定的准备金率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 461.86, "end": 464.02, "text": "注意是这个比率降到了零", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 464.02, "end": 465.34, "text": "到今天都还是零", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 465.34, "end": 468.68, "text": "也就是说法律已经不要求各个商业银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 468.68, "end": 471.66, "text": "在美联储的账户里面存一分钱了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 471.66, "end": 473.7, "text": "既然法律不要求", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 473.7, "end": 474.94, "text": "那银行还存吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 474.94, "end": 477.62, "text": "存而且存的比以前要多得多", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 477.62, "end": 478.7, "text": "为什么呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 478.7, "end": 479.5, "text": "三个原因", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 479.5, "end": 481.12, "text": "第一是清算需要", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 481.12, "end": 482.1, "text": "刚才讲了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 482.1, "end": 485.02, "text": "各家银行都有大量的跨行转账", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 485.02, "end": 486.84, "text": "要清算结算", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 486.84, "end": 488.5, "text": "必须要用美联储的账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14239965785633435, "no_speech_prob": 4.378223478207488e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4154929577464788 }, { "start": 488.5, "end": 490.5, "text": "所以账户里面不能没有钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 490.5, "end": 491.52, "text": "第二呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 491.52, "end": 493.0, "text": "2008年金融危机之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 493.0, "end": 495.32, "text": "监管要求大银行手上都必须要", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 495.32, "end": 498.02, "text": "持有足够多的高品质流动资产", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 498.02, "end": 500.2, "text": "准备金是最合格的那一种", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 500.2, "end": 502.04, "text": "第三也是最直接的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 502.04, "end": 504.12, "text": "美联储从2008年10月开始", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 504.12, "end": 508.28, "text": "也会给各个商业银行存在美联储的准备金付利息了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 508.28, "end": 510.28, "text": "钱放在美联储那里", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 510.28, "end": 511.62, "text": "零风险还有钱赚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 511.62, "end": 513.52, "text": "那银行何乐而不为呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 513.52, "end": 514.5, "text": "换句话说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 514.5, "end": 517.8, "text": "以前银行存准备金是法律逼着他们存", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09347136497497559, "no_speech_prob": 1.8338792290295558e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3650793650793651 }, { "start": 517.8, "end": 520.52, "text": "今天银行往美联储的账上存准备金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 520.52, "end": 522.26, "text": "是因为他们自己想存", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 522.26, "end": 523.94, "text": "银行们这个态度", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 523.94, "end": 527.38, "text": "就让美联储发现了一个特别好用的关窍", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 527.38, "end": 528.6, "text": "什么关窍呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 528.6, "end": 529.52, "text": "前面说过", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 529.52, "end": 532.0, "text": "美联储这100多年来任务就两条", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 532.0, "end": 534.54, "text": "保持物价平稳和最大化就业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 534.54, "end": 537.08, "text": "手段就是通过加息和降息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 537.08, "end": 538.9, "text": "怎么加息和降息呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 538.9, "end": 542.74, "text": "就是要让这个纽约联储银行去市场上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 542.74, "end": 544.9, "text": "卖掉几亿的美元国债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09941998650045956, "no_speech_prob": 1.4438997740506831e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3795620437956204 }, { "start": 544.9, "end": 547.84, "text": "然后把买进美元国债的商业银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 547.84, "end": 551.2, "text": "账户里的那部分准备金部分的给收走", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 551.2, "end": 554.82, "text": "一收走之后商业银行们就感觉到缺钱了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 554.82, "end": 557.22, "text": "彼此拆借的那个隔夜利率呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 557.22, "end": 558.34, "text": "就会往上走", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 558.34, "end": 560.2, "text": "加息就是这么加上去的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 560.2, "end": 562.6, "text": "而反过来要降息的时候呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 562.6, "end": 565.04, "text": "美联储会把这个国债买进来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 565.04, "end": 566.54, "text": "把钱呢放出去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 566.54, "end": 569.28, "text": "放到各个商业银行的准备金的账户上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 569.28, "end": 571.12, "text": "银行们一看哎钱多了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 571.12, "end": 573.88, "text": "那么隔夜利率就是那个拆借的利率呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 573.88, "end": 574.86, "text": "就会往下走", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10337963882757693, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113920539764568e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5574912891986064 }, { "start": 574.86, "end": 578.06, "text": "美联储这个动作就叫做公开市场操作", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 578.06, "end": 579.46, "text": "这么操作有个前提", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 579.46, "end": 584.28, "text": "就是全美国商业银行存在美联储那里的准备金的总量比较少", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 584.28, "end": 586.02, "text": "也就是几百亿美元的规模", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 586.02, "end": 589.88, "text": "所以几亿美元国债的这个买卖它就能奏效", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 589.88, "end": 592.86, "text": "但是2018年之后这套做法失效了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 592.86, "end": 594.28, "text": "原因还是金融危机", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 594.28, "end": 596.72, "text": "金融危机以来市场上到处缺钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 596.72, "end": 598.68, "text": "美联储就买进几万亿的证券", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 598.68, "end": 600.32, "text": "包括美国国债公司债等", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 600.32, "end": 602.48, "text": "洒出了大量的美元现金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07330355048179626, "no_speech_prob": 1.8111743008142334e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4248366013071896 }, { "start": 602.48, "end": 604.86, "text": "这些钱全部变成了各家商业银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 604.86, "end": 606.74, "text": "在美联储账户里面的准备金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 606.74, "end": 608.48, "text": "于是这个准备金规模", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 608.48, "end": 610.38, "text": "就从几百亿短短几个月", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 610.38, "end": 612.68, "text": "暴涨到了几万亿的额度", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 612.68, "end": 614.38, "text": "这就出现了一个新问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 614.38, "end": 618.2, "text": "美联储如果还想用买卖几亿国债的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 618.2, "end": 619.34, "text": "这种传统的方法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 619.34, "end": 621.84, "text": "来推动这个利率上升或者下降", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 621.84, "end": 622.6, "text": "已经没用了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 622.6, "end": 625.92, "text": "因为准备金总量变成了几万亿", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 625.92, "end": 627.42, "text": "那么几亿的那个买卖", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 627.42, "end": 629.16, "text": "那就是万分之一的波动", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 629.16, "end": 630.62, "text": "完全可以忽略不计", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0665753775951909, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509540270657428e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.389776357827476 }, { "start": 630.62, "end": 632.6, "text": "自然这个利率也就推不动了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 632.6, "end": 634.02, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 634.02, "end": 636.74, "text": "这就是刚才我们讲的那个关窍的妙用了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 636.74, "end": 638.18, "text": "2008年10月开始", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 638.18, "end": 639.84, "text": "美联储给准备金付利息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 639.84, "end": 642.78, "text": "当初这么做只是危机里面的应急措施", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 642.78, "end": 644.22, "text": "结果美联储发现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 644.22, "end": 646.34, "text": "它付出去的这个利息本身", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 646.34, "end": 648.86, "text": "就是一个全新的很好用的工具", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 648.86, "end": 650.14, "text": "道理很简单", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 650.14, "end": 652.86, "text": "各个商业银行的准备金放在美联储账上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 652.86, "end": 654.5, "text": "利率4% 零风险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 654.5, "end": 656.38, "text": "那么接下来会发生什么呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 656.38, "end": 657.66, "text": "就是各商业银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111247021219005, "no_speech_prob": 1.7571437360697217e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3662420382165605 }, { "start": 657.66, "end": 661.72, "text": "对于低于4%的借款利率就看不上了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 661.72, "end": 664.78, "text": "因为躺在美联储的准备金的账上就有4%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 664.78, "end": 669.48, "text": "干嘛还冒着风险去赚那个低于4%的利息的这笔钱呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 669.48, "end": 675.32, "text": "这样一来美联储付的这个利率就变成了整个市场的一个地板利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 675.32, "end": 679.88, "text": "这个地板利率有个名字叫做准备金余额利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 679.88, "end": 683.24, "text": "美联储要是想加息就不用再辛辛苦苦", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 683.24, "end": 685.92, "text": "让这个纽约联储银行去卖国债抽钱了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 685.92, "end": 687.32, "text": "他只要动动嘴宣布", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08878758956825798, "no_speech_prob": 1.7076676878113872e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.453287197231834 }, { "start": 687.32, "end": 689.56, "text": "从明天开始我付4.25%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 689.56, "end": 691.42, "text": "也就是加息0.25", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 691.42, "end": 693.42, "text": "那么全市场的利率一看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 693.42, "end": 695.32, "text": "也就会跟着上来了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 695.32, "end": 696.28, "text": "方便吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 696.28, "end": 696.96, "text": "方便", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 696.96, "end": 700.0, "text": "但是这块地板也不是万无一失的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 700.0, "end": 701.62, "text": "地板边上还有一道缝", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 701.62, "end": 702.62, "text": "什么缝呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 702.62, "end": 705.5, "text": "因为能在美联储开准备金账户的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 705.5, "end": 707.16, "text": "只有个商业银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 707.16, "end": 711.14, "text": "可是市场上还有一大批手握巨款的非银行机构", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 711.14, "end": 713.6, "text": "最典型的就是货币市场基金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 713.6, "end": 716.24, "text": "他们开不了那个准备金账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12376744248146235, "no_speech_prob": 1.3152084456236057e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3494809688581315 }, { "start": 716.24, "end": 717.6, "text": "踩不到这块地板", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 717.6, "end": 719.64, "text": "拿不到准备金余额利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 719.64, "end": 721.04, "text": "而他们的钱呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 721.04, "end": 722.4, "text": "也得找地方过业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 722.4, "end": 724.16, "text": "所以银行就会摸准", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 724.16, "end": 725.82, "text": "他们别无选择就加价", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 725.82, "end": 727.78, "text": "说反正你也拿不到4%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 727.78, "end": 729.04, "text": "我出3.7%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 729.04, "end": 730.1, "text": "那你借给我吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 730.1, "end": 732.1, "text": "这样一来市场上的利率呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 732.1, "end": 734.0, "text": "就比美联储想要的那个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 734.0, "end": 735.94, "text": "地板价的利率又要低了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 735.94, "end": 737.68, "text": "这就是那道链锋", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 737.68, "end": 739.1, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 739.1, "end": 739.84, "text": "于是呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 739.84, "end": 741.24, "text": "美联储在这个地板底下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 741.24, "end": 742.72, "text": "又垫了一层防漏垫", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 742.72, "end": 745.14, "text": "就是让这些非银行机构", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12215813811944455, "no_speech_prob": 2.1525297169699975e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3762376237623761 }, { "start": 745.14, "end": 748.44, "text": "也能把钱放进美联储过一晚拿利息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 748.44, "end": 751.34, "text": "当然这个利率就设计的比地板价", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 751.34, "end": 755.7, "text": "也就是它给到银行的那个准备金余额利率要略低一点", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 755.7, "end": 757.54, "text": "有了这层房漏电", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 757.54, "end": 759.32, "text": "货币基金的腰杆也硬了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 759.32, "end": 761.36, "text": "抵御这个数我还不如放美联储呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 761.36, "end": 762.4, "text": "那这样一来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 762.4, "end": 764.82, "text": "美联储想要的那个最低利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 764.82, "end": 766.1, "text": "它就漏不下去了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 766.1, "end": 768.68, "text": "这个比地板要低的房漏电子", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 768.68, "end": 771.4, "text": "有一个名字叫做隔夜逆回购利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 771.4, "end": 772.24, "text": "好", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10694858614958865, "no_speech_prob": 1.996121670733153e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4055944055944056 }, { "start": 772.24, "end": 775.38, "text": "这样一来利率下限就有两层防护", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 775.38, "end": 777.14, "text": "那么利率的上限呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 777.14, "end": 780.5, "text": "美联储手里面还有一件老工具叫贴线", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 780.5, "end": 783.36, "text": "任何银行缺钱都可以直接找美联储借", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 783.36, "end": 785.14, "text": "利率是明码标价的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 785.14, "end": 789.12, "text": "比这个准备金余额利率这个地板价要高一节", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 789.12, "end": 790.52, "text": "这就是天花板利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 790.52, "end": 793.1, "text": "为什么又要设这个利率天花板呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 793.1, "end": 795.44, "text": "美联储防的就是市场上那些", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 795.44, "end": 799.9, "text": "趁着缺钱之际漫天叫价去抬高利率的这种行径", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 799.9, "end": 801.08, "text": "高于这个利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10458401271275111, "no_speech_prob": 1.841245385325596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.479020979020979 }, { "start": 801.08, "end": 803.74, "text": "那么缺钱的银行机构就可以直接找美联储去了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 803.74, "end": 806.6, "text": "美联储自己就可以印出钱来给他们无限量", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 806.6, "end": 810.4, "text": "于是高利率的上限也就被锁死了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 810.4, "end": 812.14, "text": "上下这么一家", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 812.14, "end": 814.88, "text": "银行之间那个联邦基金利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 814.88, "end": 818.86, "text": "就乖乖的呆在美联储指定的这个区间里面", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 818.86, "end": 822.34, "text": "而这三个数字全部是美联储自己单方面说了算", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 822.34, "end": 824.38, "text": "不用再去买卖什么国债了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 824.38, "end": 826.7, "text": "也不用动任何银行的账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 826.7, "end": 828.32, "text": "只要动动嘴改三个数字", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 828.32, "end": 830.08, "text": "加息就完成了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09936268064710829, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966556631858865e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4503311258278146 }, { "start": 830.08, "end": 833.16, "text": "这就是2008年之后加息的新玩法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 833.16, "end": 835.64, "text": "一句话总结这个新旧之别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 835.64, "end": 837.2, "text": "那以前加息呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 837.2, "end": 841.16, "text": "美联储还要去靠买卖国债来抽各商业银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 841.16, "end": 844.18, "text": "存在他那里的那个准备金账户里面的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 844.18, "end": 845.24, "text": "现在不用了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 845.24, "end": 848.14, "text": "加息就靠改这三个区间数字就完工", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 848.14, "end": 852.12, "text": "可是这三个区间数字指的是隔夜利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 852.12, "end": 855.08, "text": "也就只有银行和基金才能碰得到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 855.08, "end": 858.94, "text": "它是怎么一路跑到我们的房贷股票月供上的呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09656436540927106, "no_speech_prob": 1.7358116680132873e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3181818181818181 }, { "start": 858.94, "end": 860.82, "text": "但是这个影响啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 860.82, "end": 863.42, "text": "它是一站一站的传导过来的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 863.42, "end": 866.0, "text": "第一站先影响到银行的资金成本", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 866.0, "end": 866.86, "text": "前面讲过", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 866.86, "end": 869.48, "text": "银行放在美联储能拿到的利息变高了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 869.48, "end": 870.14, "text": "还无风险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 870.14, "end": 870.6, "text": "所以呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 870.6, "end": 874.2, "text": "它对外放款的最低要求也就会跟着变高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 874.2, "end": 876.22, "text": "美联储一旦提高0.25", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 876.22, "end": 878.32, "text": "那么银行放贷出去的利率呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 878.32, "end": 880.12, "text": "至少也就会提高0.25", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 880.12, "end": 881.18, "text": "第二站", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 881.18, "end": 883.78, "text": "影响就影响到了最优惠利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 883.78, "end": 886.84, "text": "美国商业银行给最优质的企业客户的贷款利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09928547252308238, "no_speech_prob": 1.6829026019959947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4305084745762713 }, { "start": 886.84, "end": 889.62, "text": "惯例是在刚才讲的那个目标区间", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 889.62, "end": 891.78, "text": "上线再加三个百分点", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 891.78, "end": 893.08, "text": "美联储要是移动", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 893.08, "end": 894.6, "text": "银行当天或者隔天", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 894.6, "end": 897.74, "text": "就会把这个最优惠利率跟着往上调", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 897.74, "end": 900.7, "text": "信用卡车贷房屋净值信用额度", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 900.7, "end": 902.9, "text": "这类的浮动利率的贷款", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 902.9, "end": 904.72, "text": "大多是挂在它上面的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 904.72, "end": 906.76, "text": "所以几天之内也会跟着动", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 906.76, "end": 909.9, "text": "第三影响就传导到了企业端", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 909.9, "end": 912.36, "text": "企业的借鉴成本上升了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 912.36, "end": 913.92, "text": "投资决策就要重新算", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 913.92, "end": 916.48, "text": "同时股票估值也会受影响", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08743305398960306, "no_speech_prob": 1.379158072467579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3142857142857143 }, { "start": 916.48, "end": 919.24, "text": "最后一战影响到了总需求", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1479737957318624, "no_speech_prob": 1.47400702754652e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0206185567010309 }, { "start": 919.24, "end": 924.38, "text": "企业也好 居民也好 借钱变贵了 存钱变得更值钱了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1479737957318624, "no_speech_prob": 1.47400702754652e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0206185567010309 }, { "start": 939.46, "end": 941.0, "text": "那要多久才会见效呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 941.5, "end": 944.96, "text": "从美联储动手加息到物价上涨泛慢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 945.34, "end": 946.5, "text": "通胀缓解", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 946.88, "end": 948.68, "text": "通常要12个月到18个月", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 949.18, "end": 951.1, "text": "记住这个时间差后面还会用到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 951.5, "end": 952.0, "text": "好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 952.26, "end": 954.82, "text": "到这里我们就把加息是怎么加的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 955.08, "end": 959.42, "text": "加了之后会怎么影响这个发生机制传导链条给讲清楚了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 959.94, "end": 960.96, "text": "现在再回头补上一点", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 961.22, "end": 963.26, "text": "谁来决定加息减息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 963.52, "end": 965.58, "text": "是美联储主席一个人说了算吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 965.82, "end": 966.6, "text": "直接给答案", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 966.86, "end": 968.14, "text": "不是他一个人拍板的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15573907185749836, "no_speech_prob": 1.641237493132941e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3201320132013201 }, { "start": 968.14, "end": 969.84, "text": "是一个12人委员会", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 969.84, "end": 972.2, "text": "叫做联邦公开市场委员会", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 972.2, "end": 974.16, "text": "开会来投票决定的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 974.16, "end": 975.26, "text": "总共12票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 975.26, "end": 977.2, "text": "那是哪12票呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 977.2, "end": 978.16, "text": "前面说过", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 978.16, "end": 979.36, "text": "美联储最上面一层", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 979.36, "end": 980.42, "text": "理事会七位理事", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 980.42, "end": 981.1, "text": "一人一票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 981.1, "end": 982.5, "text": "加上执行层里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 982.5, "end": 983.26, "text": "最重要的那位", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 983.26, "end": 985.0, "text": "纽约联储银行主席", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 985.0, "end": 985.72, "text": "8票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 985.72, "end": 986.74, "text": "这是固定票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 986.74, "end": 989.62, "text": "那么其他11家地区银行的主席", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 989.62, "end": 991.48, "text": "来分剩下的4张票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 991.48, "end": 992.4, "text": "也不用抢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 992.4, "end": 993.36, "text": "轮流有", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 993.36, "end": 994.28, "text": "一年一轮", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 994.28, "end": 996.08, "text": "那没有轮到的七位呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 996.08, "end": 997.4, "text": "照常出席会议", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10949242055712648, "no_speech_prob": 1.490548483251697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3595890410958904 }, { "start": 997.4, "end": 999.46, "text": "照常发言只是不投票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 999.46, "end": 1001.34, "text": "是什么样的会议呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1001.34, "end": 1002.98, "text": "会议叫议席会", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1002.98, "end": 1005.28, "text": "一个会议的过程是这样子的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1005.28, "end": 1008.12, "text": "会前一两周幕僚就会发两套材料", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1008.12, "end": 1009.66, "text": "第一套叫Tierbook", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1009.66, "end": 1011.68, "text": "A策是经济预测", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1011.68, "end": 1015.1, "text": "B策是几种政策选项和各自的后果", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1015.1, "end": 1016.98, "text": "这一套是不对外公开的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1016.98, "end": 1018.28, "text": "这是第一套", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1018.28, "end": 1019.9, "text": "第二套叫贺皮书", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1019.9, "end": 1022.78, "text": "是12家地区联储银行收集的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1022.78, "end": 1025.7, "text": "本地的企业银行劳动市场的一线情况", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1025.7, "end": 1027.3, "text": "这一套可以对外公开", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12250696551737361, "no_speech_prob": 1.592386465743001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.354515050167224 }, { "start": 1027.3, "end": 1028.42, "text": "那么同一时间", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1028.42, "end": 1030.2, "text": "联储主席比如现任的卧时", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1030.2, "end": 1032.9, "text": "他就会和每一位委员单独谈话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1032.9, "end": 1034.94, "text": "这一步在公开流程里面看不到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1034.94, "end": 1037.98, "text": "但是共识大部分在这个时候就形成了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1037.98, "end": 1039.2, "text": "好 这是会前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1039.2, "end": 1041.7, "text": "那么到了正式开会是开两天", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1041.7, "end": 1044.04, "text": "第二天大家得轮流表态", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1044.04, "end": 1046.04, "text": "到底是加是捡还是不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1046.04, "end": 1047.14, "text": "惯例上呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1047.14, "end": 1048.9, "text": "主席最后发言提出建议", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1048.9, "end": 1050.14, "text": "然后投票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1050.14, "end": 1051.84, "text": "一人一票出结果", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1051.84, "end": 1054.24, "text": "美东时间下午两点发声明", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1054.24, "end": 1056.24, "text": "两点半主席开记者会", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13850854163946108, "no_speech_prob": 1.7552599998471585e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460317460317461 }, { "start": 1056.24, "end": 1057.86, "text": "和传媒直接沟通", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1057.86, "end": 1058.88, "text": "为什么要这么决定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1058.88, "end": 1060.28, "text": "那这个时间呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1060.28, "end": 1063.3, "text": "恰好是台北香港的凌晨两三点钟", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1063.3, "end": 1064.8, "text": "那具体投票的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1064.8, "end": 1065.74, "text": "主席有几票呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1065.74, "end": 1066.3, "text": "一票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1066.3, "end": 1068.08, "text": "跟其他11个人一样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1068.08, "end": 1070.4, "text": "这里就要进行第三个误解的修整", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1070.4, "end": 1071.24, "text": "加不加息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1071.24, "end": 1072.74, "text": "不是主席一个人定的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1072.74, "end": 1074.0, "text": "那美联储主席", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1074.0, "end": 1075.96, "text": "不就和其他的理事委员一样了吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1075.96, "end": 1076.46, "text": "不", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1076.46, "end": 1077.98, "text": "他的权力很大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1077.98, "end": 1079.98, "text": "是大在投票之外的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1079.98, "end": 1081.36, "text": "另外其他四个地方", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1081.36, "end": 1082.52, "text": "第一呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1082.52, "end": 1083.86, "text": "那份会后声明", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1083.86, "end": 1084.74, "text": "他的初稿呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1084.74, "end": 1086.2, "text": "是主席团队写的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12491807114654387, "no_speech_prob": 1.8744176349949626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4075235109717867 }, { "start": 1086.2, "end": 1088.44, "text": "其他人最多是在搞字上改", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1088.44, "end": 1089.9, "text": "很少推翻重来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1089.9, "end": 1090.64, "text": "第二", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1090.64, "end": 1092.72, "text": "议程和发言的顺序", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1092.72, "end": 1093.6, "text": "由主席安排", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1093.6, "end": 1094.58, "text": "讨论什么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1094.58, "end": 1095.72, "text": "往哪个方向讨论", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1095.72, "end": 1096.64, "text": "由主席来定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1096.64, "end": 1097.56, "text": "第三", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1097.56, "end": 1099.56, "text": "会前那一轮一对一的沟通", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1099.56, "end": 1101.62, "text": "好的联储主席在开会之前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1101.62, "end": 1103.08, "text": "就会知道每个人的立场", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1103.08, "end": 1103.86, "text": "有分歧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1103.86, "end": 1105.3, "text": "这个时候就处理掉了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1105.3, "end": 1107.04, "text": "会上不会出意外", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1107.04, "end": 1107.38, "text": "第四", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1107.38, "end": 1109.86, "text": "记者会是主席的个人舞台", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1109.86, "end": 1111.94, "text": "12个人投票决定结果", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1111.94, "end": 1113.7, "text": "但是只有主席一个人", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1113.7, "end": 1115.96, "text": "面对全世界来解释这个结果", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10223724444707234, "no_speech_prob": 1.5499393435369768e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3814102564102564 }, { "start": 1115.96, "end": 1117.3, "text": "他用哪些词", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1117.3, "end": 1119.26, "text": "又用一种什么样的态度讲出来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1119.26, "end": 1121.56, "text": "很大程度上就可以影响到市场", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1121.56, "end": 1123.16, "text": "怎么理解这个决定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1123.16, "end": 1124.64, "text": "所以在历史上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1124.64, "end": 1127.84, "text": "主席的立场被委员会否决的情况几乎没有", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1127.84, "end": 1130.72, "text": "而且反对票通常也就一到两票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1130.72, "end": 1132.34, "text": "三票都算多的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1132.34, "end": 1135.56, "text": "超过三票会被视为这个委员会开始分裂了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1135.56, "end": 1137.5, "text": "好 流程讲完了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1137.5, "end": 1139.02, "text": "听到这里你也只会说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1139.02, "end": 1140.2, "text": "那不挺简单的吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1140.2, "end": 1142.48, "text": "考试选择题还有四个选项呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1142.48, "end": 1144.48, "text": "美联储这么大张旗鼓全球瞩目", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1144.48, "end": 1145.66, "text": "没想到就两个动作", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09948553427671775, "no_speech_prob": 1.7839861532475965e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.339080459770115 }, { "start": 1145.66, "end": 1146.6, "text": "加息减息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1146.6, "end": 1148.24, "text": "这么说不全面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1148.24, "end": 1150.52, "text": "因为除了加息减息之外", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1150.52, "end": 1152.4, "text": "不加不解也就是不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1152.4, "end": 1153.76, "text": "也是一个动作", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1153.76, "end": 1155.46, "text": "为什么不动也是一个动作呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1155.46, "end": 1157.68, "text": "难道不动也能达成美联储", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1157.68, "end": 1159.52, "text": "稳定物价充分就业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1159.52, "end": 1161.02, "text": "这两个法定任务吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1161.02, "end": 1162.82, "text": "听着有点反直觉对吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1162.82, "end": 1165.04, "text": "其实这个背后是有坚实逻辑的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1165.04, "end": 1165.8, "text": "我们来看一下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1165.8, "end": 1167.52, "text": "逻辑是这么起效的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1167.52, "end": 1169.12, "text": "任何金融资产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1169.12, "end": 1170.82, "text": "今天的价格其实并不完全", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1170.82, "end": 1172.36, "text": "就是当下的价格", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1172.36, "end": 1173.56, "text": "那是什么呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1173.56, "end": 1173.92, "text": "是吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12541309548489873, "no_speech_prob": 1.7484352507479706e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.46875 }, { "start": 1173.92, "end": 1176.36, "text": "未来的希望用预期的这杆秤", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1176.36, "end": 1178.14, "text": "折算成今天的金粮", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1178.14, "end": 1179.54, "text": "听起来晕了吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1179.54, "end": 1180.28, "text": "举个例子", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1180.28, "end": 1183.52, "text": "假设你手里面有一张面额1万美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1183.52, "end": 1187.64, "text": "每年固定派4%利息的10年期美国国债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1187.64, "end": 1189.98, "text": "那接下来遇到了两种情况", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1189.98, "end": 1190.66, "text": "情况A", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1190.66, "end": 1193.0, "text": "如果大家预期未来利率一成不变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1193.0, "end": 1195.36, "text": "那就还是稳稳的在4%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1195.36, "end": 1196.74, "text": "那么这张债券", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1196.74, "end": 1197.64, "text": "今天的价格", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1197.64, "end": 1199.9, "text": "明天的价格就还是在1万美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1199.9, "end": 1200.62, "text": "没有变化", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1200.62, "end": 1201.84, "text": "再看情况B", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1201.84, "end": 1203.84, "text": "如果今天中午突然公布了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12526903205743714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8779429400428427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3562091503267975 }, { "start": 1203.84, "end": 1205.14, "text": "一份超强的就业数据", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1205.14, "end": 1207.16, "text": "比如失业率都降到2.5%了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1207.16, "end": 1208.44, "text": "全民就业了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1208.44, "end": 1209.2, "text": "人人有工作", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1209.2, "end": 1210.58, "text": "那说明经济非常好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1210.58, "end": 1212.36, "text": "下一步就有可能过热", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1212.36, "end": 1213.76, "text": "听了前面你就会知道", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1213.76, "end": 1215.58, "text": "美联储很有可能", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1215.58, "end": 1218.1, "text": "要去加息保物价稳定了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1218.1, "end": 1220.24, "text": "当市场瞬间产生了这个预期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1220.24, "end": 1221.46, "text": "就是未来几年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1221.46, "end": 1223.54, "text": "美联储会把利率一路往上升", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1223.54, "end": 1224.52, "text": "甚至升到6%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1224.52, "end": 1225.5, "text": "这个时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1225.5, "end": 1227.18, "text": "这张债券今天的价格", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1227.18, "end": 1228.16, "text": "就会发生变化", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1228.16, "end": 1229.76, "text": "会怎么发生变化呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1229.76, "end": 1230.34, "text": "请注意", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1230.34, "end": 1231.68, "text": "它未来的现金流", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1231.68, "end": 1232.58, "text": "没有任何改变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11706417710033816, "no_speech_prob": 3.687865637869159e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3274336283185841 }, { "start": 1232.58, "end": 1236.16, "text": "未来十年仍然是每年给你400美元的回报", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1236.16, "end": 1237.72, "text": "但是投资人会想", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1237.72, "end": 1241.18, "text": "既然未来的市场利率预期会到6%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1241.18, "end": 1244.4, "text": "那么这张4%的债券那就不够看了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1244.4, "end": 1248.8, "text": "要卖也不会有人按照1万美元的面值来买了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1248.8, "end": 1249.9, "text": "除非他打折卖", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1249.9, "end": 1253.92, "text": "这个要求债券打折卖的动作就说明", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1253.92, "end": 1255.42, "text": "折现率改变了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1255.42, "end": 1256.52, "text": "怎么变的呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1256.52, "end": 1258.98, "text": "必须要折算到新的价格", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1258.98, "end": 1262.32, "text": "能够补足未来那2%的预期利差", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10532625516255696, "no_speech_prob": 1.2166593253704061e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3180212014134276 }, { "start": 1262.32, "end": 1264.18, "text": "这张债券才能卖掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1264.18, "end": 1265.16, "text": "注意啊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1265.16, "end": 1268.5, "text": "这个折算是在预期改变的同时就会发生", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1268.5, "end": 1270.22, "text": "债券今天就在跌", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1270.22, "end": 1271.24, "text": "股票估值呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1271.24, "end": 1272.28, "text": "今天就会下调", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1272.28, "end": 1275.98, "text": "银行今天就会把新的贷款利率往上提", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1275.98, "end": 1277.46, "text": "哪怕此时此刻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1277.46, "end": 1278.86, "text": "真实的利率并没有变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1278.86, "end": 1279.92, "text": "还是4%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1279.92, "end": 1283.2, "text": "但是市场已经跟着预期反映起来了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1283.2, "end": 1286.26, "text": "这就是价格取决于未来预期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1286.26, "end": 1287.38, "text": "预期一变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1287.38, "end": 1288.78, "text": "价格就会跟着变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1288.78, "end": 1290.88, "text": "而不会慢吞吞的等到那个决定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1290.88, "end": 1291.9, "text": "真正执行的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09044731424209919, "no_speech_prob": 2.1527309448932108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3585526315789473 }, { "start": 1291.9, "end": 1293.32, "text": "价格才变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1293.32, "end": 1295.16, "text": "那理解了这个我们就能知道", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1295.16, "end": 1296.92, "text": "美联储的每一次议席会", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1296.92, "end": 1299.92, "text": "市场其实都提前压住了一个预期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1299.92, "end": 1302.42, "text": "如果加息市场早就预料到了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1302.42, "end": 1304.68, "text": "那么在预期形成的那一刻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1304.68, "end": 1307.44, "text": "加息就已经开始影响价格了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1307.44, "end": 1308.98, "text": "就已经在加了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1308.98, "end": 1310.84, "text": "到正式宣布加息那天", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1310.84, "end": 1312.24, "text": "反而会波澜不惊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1312.24, "end": 1315.66, "text": "那一天的注意力就不在这个加息本身", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1315.66, "end": 1317.84, "text": "而是在美联储主席的声明", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1317.84, "end": 1319.52, "text": "还有记者会里面的措辞态度", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.112402063257554, "no_speech_prob": 3.4525139691599094e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028 }, { "start": 1319.52, "end": 1322.24, "text": "还有没有还会在家的这个暗示", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1322.24, "end": 1323.72, "text": "那解息呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1323.72, "end": 1324.58, "text": "这个过程也一样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1324.58, "end": 1326.26, "text": "在预期形成的那一刻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1326.26, "end": 1328.04, "text": "解息就已经在减", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1328.04, "end": 1329.6, "text": "已经在影响价格了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1329.6, "end": 1331.48, "text": "等到美联储正式宣布的那一天", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1331.48, "end": 1333.16, "text": "市场也不看解息本身", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1333.16, "end": 1335.2, "text": "而是去看声明提到的背景", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1335.2, "end": 1337.12, "text": "比如到底是通胀回落之后的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1337.12, "end": 1337.92, "text": "从容调整呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1337.92, "end": 1340.16, "text": "还是经济出事之后的紧急救火呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1340.16, "end": 1342.1, "text": "如果是前者那就是好消息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1342.1, "end": 1343.54, "text": "后者呢就是坏消息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1343.54, "end": 1344.84, "text": "是去判断这个", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1344.84, "end": 1346.64, "text": "而不再是解息本身了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1346.64, "end": 1347.48, "text": "所以你看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1347.48, "end": 1348.36, "text": "加息也好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1348.36, "end": 1349.0, "text": "解息也好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10870282336918995, "no_speech_prob": 1.7639178312434112e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915 }, { "start": 1349.0, "end": 1351.04, "text": "市场的反应都不在动作本身", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1351.04, "end": 1353.74, "text": "而是在动作透露出的下一步", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1353.74, "end": 1355.2, "text": "也就是那个新的预期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1355.2, "end": 1356.54, "text": "那不动呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1356.54, "end": 1359.04, "text": "不动预示出的东西往往更多", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1359.04, "end": 1360.32, "text": "市场立刻就会追问", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1360.32, "end": 1361.48, "text": "说好的加息呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1361.48, "end": 1363.96, "text": "是美联储看到了还没有公开的坏数据吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1363.96, "end": 1365.56, "text": "还是内部炒翻了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1365.56, "end": 1366.34, "text": "达不成共识", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1366.34, "end": 1368.48, "text": "还是总统的压力起到了作用", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1368.48, "end": 1371.64, "text": "你看每一种猜测都会直接变成价格波动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1371.64, "end": 1372.68, "text": "而且呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1372.68, "end": 1373.82, "text": "不加不减这个不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1373.82, "end": 1375.46, "text": "它的含义还得要看环境", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1375.46, "end": 1377.8, "text": "要是通胀往下走时不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1377.8, "end": 1378.58, "text": "那叫耐心", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10151231765747071, "no_speech_prob": 1.6966095195414255e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4054054054054055 }, { "start": 1378.58, "end": 1380.7, "text": "要是通胀往上走时还不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1380.7, "end": 1381.54, "text": "那就叫放任", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1381.54, "end": 1383.08, "text": "市场一旦把不动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1383.08, "end": 1384.2, "text": "独成了不敢动", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1384.2, "end": 1385.4, "text": "它就会自己动手", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1385.4, "end": 1386.2, "text": "怎么动手呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1386.2, "end": 1389.12, "text": "就要求更高的长期利率来补偿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1389.12, "end": 1391.26, "text": "它认为美联储央行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1391.26, "end": 1393.14, "text": "不会去管的那部分通胀", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1393.14, "end": 1394.88, "text": "好 再来复习一遍", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1394.88, "end": 1397.38, "text": "市场买卖的从来都不是美联储的动作", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1397.38, "end": 1399.02, "text": "而是美联储的下一步", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1399.02, "end": 1401.92, "text": "既然预期才是真正的标的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1401.92, "end": 1403.6, "text": "下一个问题自然就会冒出来了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1403.6, "end": 1404.26, "text": "美联储", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10284071290091182, "no_speech_prob": 1.8263014364694463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4071428571428573 }, { "start": 1404.46, "end": 1405.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1405.46, "end": 1407.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1407.46, "end": 1409.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1409.46, "end": 1411.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1411.46, "end": 1413.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1413.46, "end": 1415.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1415.46, "end": 1417.46, "text": "你不想要去做什麼?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.46966001722547746, "no_speech_prob": 9.34150586745508e-12, "compression_ratio": 7.595744680851064 }, { "start": 1417.46, "end": 1424.46, "text": "所谓前瞻之影 意思就是美联储公开告诉市场自己未来大概率会怎么做", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111655202852626, "no_speech_prob": 3.180560675941635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2779661016949153 }, { "start": 1424.46, "end": 1428.46, "text": "那么这么一个能直接管理预期的工具是怎么出现的呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111655202852626, "no_speech_prob": 3.180560675941635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2779661016949153 }, { "start": 1428.46, "end": 1433.46, "text": "还是要到2008年 金融危机之后 美联储接连降息来提振经济", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111655202852626, "no_speech_prob": 3.180560675941635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2779661016949153 }, { "start": 1433.46, "end": 1439.46, "text": "最后都降到接近零了 没办法再降了 但是经济还需要刺激 怎么办", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111655202852626, "no_speech_prob": 3.180560675941635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2779661016949153 }, { "start": 1439.46, "end": 1443.46, "text": "当时的美联储主席伯南克 他后来有句谜言叫", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11111655202852626, "no_speech_prob": 3.180560675941635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2779661016949153 }, { "start": 1443.46, "end": 1446.1, "text": "叫货币政策98%靠嘴巴", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1446.1, "end": 1447.74, "text": "2%才靠行动", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1447.74, "end": 1448.64, "text": "什么意思呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1448.64, "end": 1450.08, "text": "就是直接告诉市场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1450.08, "end": 1452.66, "text": "美联储接下来一段时间将要干什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1452.66, "end": 1454.32, "text": "那用什么办法告诉市场呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1454.32, "end": 1454.94, "text": "很直接", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1454.94, "end": 1456.56, "text": "在2008年底", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1456.56, "end": 1459.42, "text": "那次一席会议后的利率决议声明中", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1459.42, "end": 1462.94, "text": "布南克第一次把承诺常规化了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1462.94, "end": 1467.12, "text": "声明说利率会在很长一段时间内保持极低", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1467.12, "end": 1468.36, "text": "三个月之后", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1468.36, "end": 1469.48, "text": "他觉得力道还不够", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1469.48, "end": 1470.6, "text": "又升级了这句话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11150214730239497, "no_speech_prob": 1.855172959697171e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2989690721649485 }, { "start": 1470.6, "end": 1474.32, "text": "叫集体的利率还会保持更长时间", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1474.32, "end": 1476.1, "text": "到2012年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1476.1, "end": 1477.66, "text": "钱瞻指引这个工具", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1477.66, "end": 1479.2, "text": "又多添了一个零件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1479.2, "end": 1480.68, "text": "叫点正图", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1480.68, "end": 1482.58, "text": "从名字就能知道个大概", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1482.58, "end": 1484.52, "text": "那19个委员会的成员", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1484.52, "end": 1486.48, "text": "每人匿名画一个点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1486.48, "end": 1487.56, "text": "点在哪呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1487.56, "end": 1489.38, "text": "点在自己认为今年年底", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1489.38, "end": 1492.84, "text": "明年年底利率该在什么位置的那个地方", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1492.84, "end": 1494.96, "text": "比如应该是在4.5呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1494.96, "end": 1496.5, "text": "还是应该提高到5呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1496.5, "end": 1498.18, "text": "又或是应该回到4呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1498.18, "end": 1500.02, "text": "那么这19个点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17795445368840143, "no_speech_prob": 1.7031197632744188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3192982456140352 }, { "start": 1500.02, "end": 1502.22, "text": "印在一张图上对外公布", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1502.22, "end": 1503.92, "text": "你想想这意味着什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1503.92, "end": 1507.36, "text": "这等于是美联储把自己未来一到两年的打算", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1507.36, "end": 1509.72, "text": "直接画成了图给市场看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1509.72, "end": 1511.44, "text": "市场连猜都不用猜了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1511.44, "end": 1514.68, "text": "照着这个点阵图的中位数去定价就行", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1514.68, "end": 1516.1, "text": "那有没有效果呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1516.1, "end": 1517.28, "text": "有效果", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1517.28, "end": 1518.84, "text": "从2008年到2015年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1518.84, "end": 1521.02, "text": "长期利率被成功压低了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1521.02, "end": 1523.94, "text": "全球债券价格迎来了一波史诗级的暴涨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1523.94, "end": 1525.12, "text": "进入危机时", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1525.12, "end": 1528.74, "text": "跌到低位的股市上演了一波世纪大牛市", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193555181918863, "no_speech_prob": 1.9758033750760795e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2879256965944272 }, { "start": 1528.74, "end": 1530.28, "text": "资产价格也翻倍了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1530.28, "end": 1533.34, "text": "而最奇特的变化出现在人们的心理层面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1533.34, "end": 1536.38, "text": "人们出现了一种奇特的认知扭曲", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1536.38, "end": 1537.7, "text": "扭曲是什么了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1537.7, "end": 1540.7, "text": "扭曲成坏消息就是好消息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1540.7, "end": 1542.84, "text": "那有些朋友听到这里应该是会心一笑了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1542.84, "end": 1543.22, "text": "对", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1543.22, "end": 1546.9, "text": "就比如每当美国公布很差劲的经济数据的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1546.9, "end": 1548.26, "text": "市场非但不怕", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1548.26, "end": 1549.54, "text": "反而是极力欢呼", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1549.54, "end": 1552.22, "text": "因为市场预期经济这么差", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1552.22, "end": 1553.86, "text": "美联储就绝对不敢升息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1553.86, "end": 1556.84, "text": "甚至还会继续量化宽松继续发钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1010611575582753, "no_speech_prob": 1.8486170927367596e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369774919614148 }, { "start": 1556.84, "end": 1560.52, "text": "这就叫预期回过头来绑架了现实", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1560.52, "end": 1561.92, "text": "美联储被绑架了吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1561.92, "end": 1562.92, "text": "被绑架了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1562.92, "end": 1564.68, "text": "就比如2021年下半年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1564.68, "end": 1566.66, "text": "美国的通胀明显抬头", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1566.66, "end": 1568.62, "text": "从数据看应该加息了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1568.62, "end": 1572.44, "text": "但是美联储之前已经公开给过一张时间表", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1572.44, "end": 1574.0, "text": "那按照这张时间表的规划", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1574.0, "end": 1575.84, "text": "加息时点还没到", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1575.84, "end": 1578.84, "text": "那到底是听这个真实通胀数据的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1578.84, "end": 1580.16, "text": "还是听时间表的呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1580.16, "end": 1581.54, "text": "美联储选择了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1581.54, "end": 1582.72, "text": "听时间表的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1582.72, "end": 1586.26, "text": "时任主席鲍威尔拖到2022年3月才加息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10157271354429183, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199707819822049e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4471830985915493 }, { "start": 1586.26, "end": 1591.32, "text": "结果呢三个月之后2022年6月通胀率来到了9.1%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1591.32, "end": 1592.84, "text": "是40年来的最高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1592.84, "end": 1597.3, "text": "这就是预期绑架了现实反噬了所有人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1597.3, "end": 1599.3, "text": "那被反噬之后美联储就开始反思", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1599.3, "end": 1602.78, "text": "我们啊是不是话说的太多承诺给的太满了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1602.78, "end": 1604.72, "text": "是不是应该换个新主席", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1604.72, "end": 1608.74, "text": "就是那种少说预期少画点正图不做承诺的人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1608.74, "end": 1611.7, "text": "来保留调控利率的主动权呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1611.7, "end": 1615.48, "text": "2026年这种风格的新主席上任了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10256003156120394, "no_speech_prob": 1.3954368910384929e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3195876288659794 }, { "start": 1615.48, "end": 1617.86, "text": "就是今天影片的主角沃什", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1617.86, "end": 1620.78, "text": "凯文沃什2026年是56岁", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1620.78, "end": 1621.98, "text": "摩根斯坦利出生", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1621.98, "end": 1624.56, "text": "56岁在金融圈还算是很年轻的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1624.56, "end": 1626.56, "text": "但他已经是美联储的老人了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1626.56, "end": 1629.14, "text": "2006年他还美满36岁的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1629.14, "end": 1631.2, "text": "就曾经担任过美联储的理事", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1631.2, "end": 1633.96, "text": "是史上最年轻的联储局的理事", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1633.96, "end": 1635.72, "text": "2008年金融危机期间", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1635.72, "end": 1637.74, "text": "他还是伯南克的核心副手", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1637.74, "end": 1639.12, "text": "直接参与救世", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1639.12, "end": 1642.16, "text": "但是他和当时的美联储主流之间", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1642.16, "end": 1643.38, "text": "一直有一道裂缝", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1643.38, "end": 1645.18, "text": "等到2010年11月", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10228353707901554, "no_speech_prob": 1.907437749415486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.386138613861386 }, { "start": 1645.18, "end": 1647.88, "text": "联储局搞第二轮量化宽松的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1647.88, "end": 1649.66, "text": "他虽然投了支持票", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1649.66, "end": 1652.5, "text": "但是几天后还是在华尔街日报上发文章", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1652.5, "end": 1654.84, "text": "质疑这个量化宽松政策", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1654.84, "end": 1656.08, "text": "几个月之后卧室离任", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1656.08, "end": 1657.42, "text": "此后十几年呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1657.42, "end": 1659.92, "text": "他一直都在批评当时美联储的那种风格", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1659.92, "end": 1661.64, "text": "就是说话太多承诺太满", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1661.64, "end": 1663.14, "text": "被市场牵着走", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1663.14, "end": 1664.7, "text": "到了2025年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1664.7, "end": 1665.52, "text": "他又公开主张", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1665.52, "end": 1667.66, "text": "AI能大幅提高生产力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1667.66, "end": 1669.16, "text": "让物价压力变小", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1669.16, "end": 1670.98, "text": "所以利率可以更低", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1670.98, "end": 1673.16, "text": "也许是这句话被川普听见了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10163060986265844, "no_speech_prob": 2.364385076614184e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2580645161290323 }, { "start": 1673.16, "end": 1675.66, "text": "2026年沃时被川普提名为", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1675.66, "end": 1677.46, "text": "新任的美联储主席人学", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1677.46, "end": 1678.48, "text": "五月就任", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1678.48, "end": 1679.44, "text": "一上任", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1679.44, "end": 1682.14, "text": "沃时就对此前的那种风格下手了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1682.14, "end": 1683.6, "text": "议席会议之后的声明", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1683.6, "end": 1685.78, "text": "压缩到了短短132个字", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1685.78, "end": 1688.16, "text": "所有关于未来路径的措辞", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1688.16, "end": 1688.98, "text": "全部删掉", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1688.98, "end": 1691.24, "text": "那个利率预测的点证图", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1691.24, "end": 1692.42, "text": "虽然还是照发", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1692.42, "end": 1693.9, "text": "但是他自己那个点呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1693.9, "end": 1694.48, "text": "他不交", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1694.48, "end": 1695.42, "text": "因此呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1695.42, "end": 1697.74, "text": "历史性的只出现了18个点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1697.74, "end": 1699.3, "text": "而不是往常的19个点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1699.3, "end": 1701.14, "text": "他还成立了五个工作小组", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1701.14, "end": 1702.98, "text": "其中一个专门检讨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12980795860290528, "no_speech_prob": 1.507430812119903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2981927710843373 }, { "start": 1702.98, "end": 1705.58, "text": "此前那种说话太多的沟通方式", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1705.58, "end": 1708.06, "text": "卧市的态度那再清楚不过了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1708.06, "end": 1709.06, "text": "不给时间表", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1709.06, "end": 1710.16, "text": "不做承诺", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1710.16, "end": 1711.28, "text": "加息减息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1711.28, "end": 1712.2, "text": "我们说了算", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1712.2, "end": 1714.12, "text": "态度虽然很清晰", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1714.12, "end": 1716.12, "text": "但是市场却普遍认为", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1716.12, "end": 1718.66, "text": "它身上还是有三层矛盾", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1718.66, "end": 1719.8, "text": "具体又是什么矛盾呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1719.8, "end": 1721.52, "text": "第一层矛盾是它的理念", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1721.52, "end": 1723.74, "text": "市场听到了它此前说过", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1723.74, "end": 1725.78, "text": "AI让利率可以更低", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1725.78, "end": 1726.76, "text": "这一类的理念", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1726.76, "end": 1729.02, "text": "可是落在行动上却是加息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1729.02, "end": 1730.6, "text": "前后只隔了一年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1730.6, "end": 1732.16, "text": "卧市同志就变结了吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13683844874144863, "no_speech_prob": 3.384422950225563e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3419354838709678 }, { "start": 1732.16, "end": 1733.18, "text": "不完全是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1733.18, "end": 1735.58, "text": "他的完整观点一直是两方面的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1735.58, "end": 1737.98, "text": "从长期看供给面的进步", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1737.98, "end": 1739.92, "text": "的确能让利率压得更低", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1739.92, "end": 1742.58, "text": "但是在短期内通胀必须先压回去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1742.58, "end": 1744.1, "text": "两方面并不矛盾", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1744.1, "end": 1746.1, "text": "只是时间尺度不同", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1746.1, "end": 1748.94, "text": "第二次矛盾是他的立场和独立性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1748.94, "end": 1750.48, "text": "川普提名了卧石", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1750.48, "end": 1751.64, "text": "为什么提名他呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1751.64, "end": 1753.5, "text": "2026年1月川普说过", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1753.5, "end": 1755.06, "text": "答应这样子的一段话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1755.06, "end": 1756.96, "text": "说这些人面试的时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1756.96, "end": 1758.76, "text": "说的全是我想听的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1758.76, "end": 1761.56, "text": "一上任就变成我们加一点息吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12874217340123584, "no_speech_prob": 2.687213992991211e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3312302839116719 }, { "start": 1761.56, "end": 1764.76, "text": "你看川普这两句话现在都应验了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1764.76, "end": 1766.1, "text": "到2026年9月", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1766.1, "end": 1769.1, "text": "白宫只好说加息总统不会高兴的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1769.1, "end": 1771.58, "text": "但是总统会捍卫美联储的独立性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1771.58, "end": 1773.22, "text": "但川普的态度也很明确", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1773.22, "end": 1775.88, "text": "美国利率就应该是全世界最低的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1775.88, "end": 1777.68, "text": "那接下来卧石会怎么做呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1777.68, "end": 1779.98, "text": "未来还能保持它的独立性吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1779.98, "end": 1782.32, "text": "市场仍然需要去继续观察它", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1782.32, "end": 1783.78, "text": "这是第二次矛盾", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1783.78, "end": 1784.82, "text": "第三次矛盾", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1784.82, "end": 1786.1, "text": "是它的方法本身", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1786.1, "end": 1788.72, "text": "卧石是明确反对前瞻之影的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1788.72, "end": 1789.68, "text": "但他又说了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14179763793945313, "no_speech_prob": 1.922615712468545e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3157894736842106 }, { "start": 1789.68, "end": 1792.1, "text": "通胀要是下不来 我们就有工作要做", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1792.1, "end": 1794.58, "text": "这句话本身不就是前瞻之影吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1794.58, "end": 1797.22, "text": "你看 敏感的市场它就会这么解读", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1797.22, "end": 1799.4, "text": "所以卧石自己特意补了一句", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1799.4, "end": 1801.3, "text": "不要把这叫做前瞻之影", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1801.3, "end": 1803.82, "text": "那市场认为的这个矛盾成立吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1803.82, "end": 1807.66, "text": "我觉得卧石反对的只是时间表而不是原则", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1807.66, "end": 1810.5, "text": "有工作要做 没说时间 没说幅度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1810.5, "end": 1812.1, "text": "只是给了一个反应逻辑", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1812.1, "end": 1814.62, "text": "通胀下不来 咱们就行动这个逻辑", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1814.62, "end": 1817.04, "text": "这种风格的美联储主席", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1817.04, "end": 1818.74, "text": "简单总结成一句话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10781519090807115, "no_speech_prob": 1.9602796816342583e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4353312302839116 }, { "start": 1818.74, "end": 1822.3, "text": "那就是他宁可让市场多承受那种不确定性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1822.3, "end": 1827.36, "text": "也要换取每次议席会按数据重新做决定的自由", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1827.36, "end": 1829.54, "text": "这种风格好处是灵活", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1829.54, "end": 1831.8, "text": "代价是波动会更大", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1831.8, "end": 1835.0, "text": "长期利率里的风险补偿会更高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1835.0, "end": 1839.2, "text": "那么像卧食这种风格的美联储主席是特例吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1839.2, "end": 1841.04, "text": "答案很明确不是特例", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1841.04, "end": 1844.56, "text": "美联储100年来的历史其实就只有一句话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1844.56, "end": 1846.78, "text": "松过头了然后紧过头", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1846.78, "end": 1847.78, "text": "紧过头之后呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10731986040126777, "no_speech_prob": 1.624881999784389e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1847.78, "end": 1848.78, "text": "然后又松过头", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1848.78, "end": 1850.46, "text": "我们重点看两个人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1850.46, "end": 1851.78, "text": "第一位伯恩斯", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1851.78, "end": 1853.66, "text": "1970年代的主席", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1853.66, "end": 1854.7, "text": "算是反面教材", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1854.7, "end": 1856.62, "text": "他的问题不是不加息", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1856.62, "end": 1858.38, "text": "是加的不痛不痒", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1858.38, "end": 1860.38, "text": "通胀一上来他就加一点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1860.38, "end": 1861.74, "text": "失业一上升", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1861.74, "end": 1863.9, "text": "白宫一施压他就马上又放手", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1863.9, "end": 1865.9, "text": "那么几次下来市场就看穿了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1865.9, "end": 1867.98, "text": "这个人不会动真格", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1867.98, "end": 1870.3, "text": "那市场看穿之后就会发生什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1870.3, "end": 1871.46, "text": "工会谈工资", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1871.46, "end": 1874.14, "text": "直接按照明年物价会上涨8%去谈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1874.14, "end": 1876.38, "text": "企业定价也是直接按", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24232911527826545, "no_speech_prob": 2.6559863683384144e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3246753246753247 }, { "start": 1876.38, "end": 1878.04, "text": "成本要涨8%去定", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08951043023003472, "no_speech_prob": 9.892448839254886e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9528301886792453 }, { "start": 1878.04, "end": 1880.74, "text": "所有人都按照高通账去行动", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08951043023003472, "no_speech_prob": 9.892448839254886e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9528301886792453 }, { "start": 1880.74, "end": 1882.48, "text": "高通账就真的来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08951043023003472, "no_speech_prob": 9.892448839254886e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9528301886792453 }, { "start": 1882.48, "end": 1884.44, "text": "这就是预期失准", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08951043023003472, "no_speech_prob": 9.892448839254886e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9528301886792453 }, { "start": 1899.46, "end": 1901.7, "text": "这一摊子的,他算是个正面教材", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1901.7, "end": 1903.46, "text": "他做的事情只有一届", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1903.46, "end": 1906.62, "text": "就是让市场重新相信美联储能说到做到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1906.62, "end": 1908.3, "text": "虽然代价极高", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1908.3, "end": 1910.68, "text": "1981年联邦基金利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1910.68, "end": 1912.0, "text": "咱们前面提到过的那个", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1912.0, "end": 1914.48, "text": "一度提到接近20%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1914.48, "end": 1917.24, "text": "这么高的利率带来了两次衰退", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1917.24, "end": 1919.06, "text": "失业率超过了10%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1919.06, "end": 1922.66, "text": "甚至农民开着拖拉机到美联储门口去抗议", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1922.66, "end": 1924.36, "text": "但是铁腕之下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1924.36, "end": 1926.22, "text": "通胀的确是压回去了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1926.22, "end": 1927.16, "text": "更重要的是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1483032920143821, "no_speech_prob": 4.2302484432044096e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.249190938511327 }, { "start": 1927.16, "end": 1930.5, "text": "美联储说到做到的信用重新建起来了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1930.5, "end": 1932.62, "text": "这笔重新建立起来的信用", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1932.62, "end": 1936.04, "text": "让之后40年每一任美联储主席都从中受益", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1936.04, "end": 1939.22, "text": "格林斯潘长期低利率和大繁荣靠他", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1939.22, "end": 1944.56, "text": "伯南克金融危机的时候敢于把准备金从几百亿放大到几万亿", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1944.56, "end": 1948.6, "text": "市场还是相信美联储能控得住场靠的也还是他", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1948.6, "end": 1952.8, "text": "等到鲍威尔在疫情期间无限量化宽松靠的还是他", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08631153804499929, "no_speech_prob": 1.4852920976471395e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1952.8, "end": 1957.7, "text": "那你会问 为什么美联储100年来总在这个松紧之间来回摆", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1957.7, "end": 1960.38, "text": "好好的固定在中间 不行吗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1960.38, "end": 1962.12, "text": "不是不想 是做不到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1962.12, "end": 1964.84, "text": "三个原因前面都讲过了 这里快速复习一下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1964.84, "end": 1969.24, "text": "第一 美联储两条法定任务是天生打架的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1969.24, "end": 1973.54, "text": "压通胀必然就会伤就业 保就业必然会带来通胀", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1973.54, "end": 1975.72, "text": "政策只能在两端之间摆", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1975.72, "end": 1981.26, "text": "第二 利率这根传导的链条一般要12个月到18个月的实质", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10386989817899817, "no_speech_prob": 1.8916174182592727e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.301948051948052 }, { "start": 1981.26, "end": 1982.04, "text": "就是时差", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1982.04, "end": 1985.22, "text": "等看到效果往往已经做过头了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1985.22, "end": 1987.5, "text": "只好反向再来一遍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1987.5, "end": 1987.78, "text": "第三", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1987.78, "end": 1989.98, "text": "政治永远只会偏向一边", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1989.98, "end": 1990.96, "text": "当经济好的时候", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1990.96, "end": 1992.14, "text": "没人想要踩刹车", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1992.14, "end": 1992.82, "text": "所以呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1992.82, "end": 1994.32, "text": "刹车总是会踩晚", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1994.32, "end": 1995.38, "text": "而踩晚呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1995.38, "end": 1996.3, "text": "就得踩中", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1996.3, "end": 1997.48, "text": "那么踩中了呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1997.48, "end": 1999.14, "text": "又得去补放松", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 1999.14, "end": 2001.42, "text": "那2026年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2001.42, "end": 2002.34, "text": "美国经济的情况", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2002.34, "end": 2004.04, "text": "像历史上的哪一段呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2004.04, "end": 2005.58, "text": "这里有个好消息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2005.58, "end": 2007.2, "text": "那就是谁都不想", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2007.2, "end": 2008.58, "text": "卧室面对的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2008.58, "end": 2010.14, "text": "只是供给侧的冲击", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14253676339481655, "no_speech_prob": 1.4803498704640816e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2993197278911566 }, { "start": 2010.14, "end": 2012.58, "text": "也就是石油稳定供应出了问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2012.58, "end": 2013.78, "text": "原因大家也清楚", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2013.78, "end": 2014.88, "text": "中东战火纷飞", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2014.88, "end": 2016.72, "text": "一时看不到停下来的迹象", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2016.72, "end": 2019.44, "text": "好在美国的就业还算稳", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2019.44, "end": 2021.36, "text": "核心通胀还在往下走", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2021.36, "end": 2023.44, "text": "所以卧室面对的不是超级难题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2023.44, "end": 2026.8, "text": "虽然他要对付那个通胀靠加息治不了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2026.8, "end": 2028.8, "text": "但他要治的也不是油价", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2028.8, "end": 2032.38, "text": "而是要恢复大家相信美联储能够把通胀", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2032.38, "end": 2034.46, "text": "维持在2%左右的这个信心", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2034.46, "end": 2036.66, "text": "而且正如他自己所说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2036.66, "end": 2039.06, "text": "美国持续65个月的高通胀", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08757020096752526, "no_speech_prob": 1.468571098062199e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.334375 }, { "start": 2039.06, "end": 2041.06, "text": "责任完全在央行就是美联储", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2041.06, "end": 2043.02, "text": "也应当由美联储来承担", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2043.02, "end": 2046.18, "text": "所以哪怕核心通帐率再改善", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2046.18, "end": 2048.34, "text": "它仍然要选择动手", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2048.34, "end": 2049.48, "text": "好 讲了这么多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2049.48, "end": 2052.18, "text": "那这一切对我们普通人的钱包意味着什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2052.18, "end": 2056.16, "text": "我们以后又该怎么去解读这一些市场消息呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2056.16, "end": 2057.68, "text": "赵丽娅我们给一个清单", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2057.68, "end": 2058.8, "text": "对北美的观众", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2058.8, "end": 2061.84, "text": "30年固定的房贷看的是10年期国债利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2061.84, "end": 2063.44, "text": "不是联邦基金利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2063.44, "end": 2065.62, "text": "所以与其去追加息新闻", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2065.62, "end": 2068.94, "text": "不如直接去看10年期收益率有没有变化", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1007473872258113, "no_speech_prob": 1.8998382728119267e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3372093023255813 }, { "start": 2068.94, "end": 2071.98, "text": "而信用卡车贷房屋净值信用额度", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2071.98, "end": 2074.22, "text": "是挂在这个最优惠利率上的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2074.22, "end": 2075.96, "text": "美联储一动几天之内", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2075.96, "end": 2077.34, "text": "这个也就会跟着动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2077.34, "end": 2080.66, "text": "不过呢储蓄账户和货币基金的利率呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2080.66, "end": 2081.88, "text": "也会跟着涨", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2081.88, "end": 2083.8, "text": "如果存款多那就更有利", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2083.8, "end": 2084.98, "text": "香港的观众", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2084.98, "end": 2086.88, "text": "港元和美元是联系汇率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2086.88, "end": 2090.18, "text": "香港金管局的基本利率是跟着美联储波动的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2090.18, "end": 2093.02, "text": "香港大多数房贷是浮动利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2093.02, "end": 2096.48, "text": "美联储的决定会直接反映在接下来一段时间的月供上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2096.48, "end": 2097.5, "text": "台湾的观众", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09072001694422688, "no_speech_prob": 1.479851657881781e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.455737704918033 }, { "start": 2097.5, "end": 2101.2, "text": "这个影响会通过三条路径传导进来", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2101.2, "end": 2102.16, "text": "一是汇率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2102.16, "end": 2103.86, "text": "美元的利率一高", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2103.86, "end": 2106.28, "text": "台币通常就要承压", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2106.28, "end": 2107.0, "text": "二是出口", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2107.0, "end": 2109.32, "text": "加息影响了美国的需求变化", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2109.32, "end": 2111.12, "text": "从而影响台湾的订单", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2111.12, "end": 2112.46, "text": "第三是售协业", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2112.46, "end": 2115.26, "text": "台湾的售协公司持有大量的美国的长债", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2115.26, "end": 2116.94, "text": "长期利率一波动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2116.94, "end": 2119.84, "text": "那么资产的价值变动就会比较大", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2119.84, "end": 2120.64, "text": "一句话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2120.64, "end": 2122.76, "text": "加息之后借钱的受损", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2122.76, "end": 2123.84, "text": "存钱的受益", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2123.84, "end": 2126.5, "text": "吃长债的就要去看长端利率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1079328035053454, "no_speech_prob": 1.2609513259931315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4042553191489362 }, { "start": 2126.5, "end": 2130.34, "text": "那么以后每次议席会议的消息如何解读呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2130.34, "end": 2132.42, "text": "有六条方法供大家参考", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2132.42, "end": 2134.64, "text": "第一条最简洁就是看决定", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2134.64, "end": 2136.72, "text": "到底是加是结还是不动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2136.72, "end": 2138.66, "text": "第二呢看票数", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2138.66, "end": 2141.66, "text": "更要看反对票的票数和方向", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2141.66, "end": 2143.48, "text": "反对票要是有三票以上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2143.48, "end": 2145.32, "text": "那就说明委员会是分裂的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2145.32, "end": 2148.02, "text": "就要看反对者反对的是什么", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2148.02, "end": 2150.06, "text": "是嫌这个结果不够呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2150.06, "end": 2152.3, "text": "还是嫌结果过头了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2152.3, "end": 2153.98, "text": "看懂这个咱们就能知道", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09323298303704512, "no_speech_prob": 1.4177443073692952e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3754512635379061 }, { "start": 2153.98, "end": 2157.3, "text": "这个12人委员会的重心在朝什么方向移动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2157.3, "end": 2158.3, "text": "就是那个方向", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2158.3, "end": 2161.08, "text": "第三 看声明的数字和措辞", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2161.08, "end": 2163.16, "text": "有没有进一步额外持续", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2163.16, "end": 2165.32, "text": "等这一类暗示下一步的词", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2165.32, "end": 2168.0, "text": "要是字数突然还变少了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2168.0, "end": 2171.68, "text": "通常是卧时这位主席在收回引导", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2171.68, "end": 2174.26, "text": "第四 看那个点证图", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2174.26, "end": 2176.6, "text": "后续还会不会继续发这个点证图", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2176.6, "end": 2179.6, "text": "每一次那个中位数呢有没有动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2179.6, "end": 2182.82, "text": "包括卧时这位主席还交不交他的判断点", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12053257833697839, "no_speech_prob": 1.625698534124531e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3881118881118881 }, { "start": 2182.82, "end": 2184.46, "text": "那看这个是看什么呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2184.46, "end": 2188.18, "text": "是看卧石对自己的风格路径有没有信心", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2188.18, "end": 2189.94, "text": "好 第五呢 看记者会", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2189.94, "end": 2192.52, "text": "当这个卧石被问到下一步的时候", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2192.52, "end": 2194.32, "text": "是给时间表还是给原则", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2194.32, "end": 2195.88, "text": "要是还给时间表", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2195.88, "end": 2197.96, "text": "那咱们就可以照着定价", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2197.96, "end": 2199.16, "text": "要是给原则呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2199.16, "end": 2201.5, "text": "那就说明美联储不跟市场交底了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2201.5, "end": 2202.34, "text": "不给预期了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2202.34, "end": 2203.88, "text": "美联储就会去看数据", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2203.88, "end": 2205.98, "text": "咱们自己也就要去看数据了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2205.98, "end": 2207.68, "text": "第六也是最重要的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2207.68, "end": 2210.36, "text": "看十年期和三十年期的国债收益率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10546452348882501, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362715416084477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.451505016722408 }, { "start": 2210.36, "end": 2213.76, "text": "在议席会声明发布之后的方向", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2213.76, "end": 2214.86, "text": "什么意思呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2214.86, "end": 2217.22, "text": "就是在加息之后长端利率下降", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2217.22, "end": 2220.0, "text": "那就说明市场相信美联储在认真做事", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2220.0, "end": 2221.34, "text": "这是一次成功的加息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2221.34, "end": 2224.5, "text": "要是加息之后长端利率反而是上升的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2224.5, "end": 2226.8, "text": "那就说明市场觉得美联储做的还不够", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2226.8, "end": 2229.18, "text": "或者就是不信美联储", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2229.18, "end": 2230.0, "text": "那么这是加息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2230.0, "end": 2232.38, "text": "如果接下来美联储做出不加不减", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2232.38, "end": 2233.66, "text": "不动的这个决定之后", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2233.66, "end": 2235.44, "text": "这个长端利率再上升", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2235.44, "end": 2237.62, "text": "那就说明市场就把这个不动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2237.62, "end": 2239.58, "text": "解读成了美联储不敢动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08866497826954675, "no_speech_prob": 1.503309629558025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6881720430107527 }, { "start": 2239.58, "end": 2241.54, "text": "那这些指标都挺复杂的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2322274881516588 }, { "start": 2241.54, "end": 2243.88, "text": "咱们就都慢慢来慢慢看慢慢学", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2322274881516588 }, { "start": 2243.88, "end": 2245.78, "text": "好今天就是这么一些", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2322274881516588 }, { "start": 2245.78, "end": 2247.26, "text": "如果这一期对你有帮助呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2322274881516588 }, { "start": 2247.26, "end": 2248.88, "text": "欢迎您订阅转发", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2322274881516588 }, { "start": 2248.88, "end": 2250.18, "text": "如果大家支持我", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2322274881516588 }, { "start": 2250.18, "end": 2251.22, "text": "请您加入会员频道", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08663424161764291, "no_speech_prob": 1.2809730706719868e-11, 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