{
  "text": "貝森特這句話意思就是說\n你不准賣美債,你只能升息。高市早苗如果他要升息的話\n那他就要面臨可能比日元貶值更大的衝擊。\n你救美國,美國感謝你嗎?\n你要救日本,日本有25萬家殭屍企業\n因為他的銀行貸款的利息還很低。\n如果他的利息提高的話,那這些殭屍企業的銀行利率\n让他们破产\n25万的僵尸企业\n这样一破产下去\n日本会造成一个重大的经济危机\n今天有关于这一场美日之间要救\n日元的这一场大战\n我们持续来看到\n日本是不是又被逼到墙角了呢\n我们稍微回顾一下\n一个月前当时美国跟日本\n一起来集体要救日元\n上演了一场罕见的日元保卫战\n当时日本是砸下了\n15兆日元要来救会\n创下了这个一个月内的一个最新记录\n才一个月的时间\n但是我们要来看到的是\n不只是日本救\n当时美国也要救日元\n所以他就跟着跟进\n卖了日元来买日元\n结果发生了什么事\n才一个月的时间\n日元再度的跌破了160关卡了\n眼看这样子救日元还是没有效的\n最新消息我们要来看到\n美国财长贝森特这一次不演了\n干脆就直接跟日本放话了\n说在G团体上面点名日本\n你赶快升息吧\n现在市场也压住说\n在贝森特讲了这些话之后\n日盈下一次的升息\n几率高达超过了七成的几率\n重点是日本央行的利率政策\n竟然是轮到美国来指指点点\n美国来指导\n现在大家也在说\n是连高斯早苗自己都不敢去指导\n要求自己的央行总裁\n直田河南升级了\n那美国凭什么呢\n好我们又来看到\n那美国担心的点是什么呢\n就是因为日本是美国非常重要的\n这个美债持有国\n现在持有的规模\n大概是达到了1.1兆美元的规模\n要救日元的话\n可能他就会透过抛售美债\n买进日元来支撑他的汇率\n但是这也是美国同时最害怕的事情\n因为美国自己的国债问题\n这么的严重啊\n现在公债已经超过了40兆美元的大关\n10年期的公债殖利率更是冲过了\n4.78%已经逼近5%这么危险的一个数字了\n贝森特的逻辑非常的清楚\n他这一次不想要就是靠美元来\n卖美元买日元来救日元了\n而是要靠日本自己升息来缩小\n每日之间的这个利差\n而这样子的话出来之后\n大家也在回顾说\n会不会当时1985年的广场协议\n又再度的发酵了呢\n让日本再次经历下一次的失落20年吗\n先来请教谢大使怎么看\n当然了 贝森特这句话\n反面的意思就是说\n你不准卖美债\n我告诉你 你只能怎么样\n你只能生息\n你两个选择 你只能生息\n这个其实在日本内部是有争论的\n高市長 因為他這個執政\n就主政的經驗不足\n然後他也是意識形態\n意識形態建國的治國\n意識形態建國的都是有一個\n就是說都有一個特色\n就是經濟要為政治服務\n不是政治為經濟服務\n有意識形態的國家\n政府都是這樣\n意識形態是最高價值\n用花錢去\n花钱去达到那个意识形态的目标\n那高斯藻苗就是这一种\n所以高斯藻苗这一点就和日本的\n这个自民党的造王者\n麻生太郎有严重的冲突\n听说有一次就是说这个\n就是说日元这个暴跌的问题\n麻生太郎去见这个高斯藻苗\n谈了不到一个小时\n麻生出来面色非常难看\n出来就搞他的派系在开会议\n好像想把高市找没有弄下来\n其实他们最大的真正点\n就是在怎么样来救\n喋喋不休的日元\n麻生太郎他们这一派的看法是什么\n不能生息只能卖美债\n你就卖美债\n上一次卖了700多亿\n这一次又花了一两百亿\n因为有美国出手\n也没有在美国手上的美债\n不到10%\n不到10%\n不到一成\n那你手上这个工具\n你拿着美债干嘛\n你死爆着美\n你救美国\n美国感谢你\n你要救日本\n你现在这次先卖1000亿\n看看救不救得了\n事实上是可能\n1000亿不足\n1500亿下去\n日本现在的美债\n是一兆1000多亿\n你抓那么多美债干嘛\n你是在撑美元\n成美元你自己要先撑得住\n所以这个麻生他们是这样的看法\n可是你如果卖掉\n你现在卖掉500亿\n卖掉1000亿美债的话\n那美国就不高兴了\n你这个是什么\n你这个是釜底\n你知道吗\n你这个背后插刀\n所以贝生特一听\n你们这个日币守不住\n第一个讲就是说\n你不你要\n你就是你只有一条路\n就是什么\n生息\n那为什么麻省他们反对升息\n日本现在的利息是非常的低\n可是日本有两大问题\n第一个你升息以后\n日本的国债\n你这个利息就会吃掉日本国债\n国债的利息\n国债这个日本政府\n每年要负担的利息就很重\n你再升息利息更重\n那会怎么样\n排挤很多社会福利的这些开支\n还是政府的必要的开支\n因为日本的国债\n它是目前它的GDP的2.6倍\n如果以4兆来算日本的GDP的话\n那大概就是10.4兆美元的国债\n日本这么小一个国家\n对不对\n它的国债是美国国债的四分之\n这个好四分之一\n日本也不过\n美国才不过40兆\n它就10兆了\n对\n可是问题国债第一个\n你如果升息的话\n第一个日本政府的负担会更重\n第二个问题是什么\n第二个问题\n日本有25万家僵尸企业\n这些僵尸企业还撑住的话\n就是因为它的银行贷款的利息还很低\n如果它的利息提高的话\n那这些僵尸企业的银行利率\n会把这些僵尸企业都怎么样\n让他们破产\n25万的僵尸企业\n这样一破产下去\n日本会造成一个重大的经济危机\n那最主要是大量的失业人口\n这是很严重的政治问题\n所以我们就看吧\n高市早苗如果他要生息的话\n那他就要面临日本的经济的一个\n可能比日元贬值更大的冲击\n可是他敢去卖美债吗\n他一切都要靠美国了\n他现在不管搞军国主义\n搞一大堆美国人还没坑气\n美国人要坑气了\n他路就走不通了\n所以他现在不敢得罪美国\n所以我看他最后可能还是怎么样\n就是升息\n升息的话就看\n那大家日本人就自己\n自己看这般了\n好 所以一边我们现在看起来\n这个日本现在被市场预估\n有七成的可能\n接下来就可能升息\n来一方面也解决现在\n美日之间很严重的\n美日利差的问题\n但是現在有一個問題是說,你一直升息一直升息,到底升得夠不夠呢?\n因為這個美日利差的問題始終就會長期的存在。\n那對於日本來說也是一個致命的陷阱。\n再來就是三大痛苦會在升息之後立即引爆。\n包括了大使剛剛幫我們特別提到的\n就是日本政府自己的GDP的部分\n尤其是日債現在已經超過GDP的260%\n這是對於日本政府自己的衝擊\n對於日本的企業的衝擊\n包括了剛剛提到的25萬家的殭屍企業\n恐怕因為無法支付利息\n他們有可能引爆的是倒閉潮\n再來就是日本有非常多人在背房貸\n接下來這個房貸族也會被夾殺\n伴隨著包括現在日本面對的是食品\n電費 汽油全部都在漲\n那对于老百姓来说\n可能压力又会更大了\n这个会是致命的毒药吗\n贝森特给的这一批帖子\n上次哥怎么看\n好 这次呢\n我们看到这个贝森特\n直接点名日本\n你要升息\n我要知道其实过去\n过去其他的国家\n对于另外的国家\n你这个干预人家的会议\n这件事情\n你公开讲已经很夸张了\n而且你提出干预的方法\n其实这个日币的部分\n升息有很多方法\n他直接点名\n升息 還不是別的\n所以說我剛剛大使講得非常清楚\n他其實在意的沒有別的\n就是說你不能抛售美債\n維陽貴在我的節目當中\n在節目當中我曾經有說過\n其實美債為什麼在手上\n首先你要干預匯率\n日幣這件事情\n其實在早前 前兩年這兩波當中\n日本已經拿出超過一兆美元\n超過超過\n一兆美元來干預日幣了\n干預這個美元的負責狀況\n可是沒有用\n其實都被稀釋掉了\n所以通常汇率的干预是透过美元\n但是任何一个外国政府\n你不可能手上有一大堆的美元在手上\n不可能\n所以你一定有美债\n那你美债主要是因为在全世界当中\n你说卖就卖\n它的流通性的变通性\n马上可以变成美元\n可是他被Sentate告诉你\n它的底线就是你不能卖美债\n因为美债不能对美国本身的\n这个本身的包括他自己美债本身\n以及国际的发生的震动太大\n但他还是丢出来说\n其实有关于说你一定要升息\n其实众所皆知\n日本央行本来就预计在9月\n市场上都认为9月它该升息了\n所以它不是一个意外\n所以现在其实贝森特丢出来的部分\n只是让这个东西似乎更鲜明 更直接\n就你不要拖到9月底\n9月赶快升吧\n因为现在其实日币的影响\n已经不只是日币 日本本身\n它影响到亚洲货币\n韩元跟东南亚的很多货币\n都连带的贬值\n卡在那里 其实大家都受影响\n所以国际性的货币\n如果对美元贬值\n其实是也是让美国感觉比较失控的\n而且我们都知道\n日本本身的它的这个利差\n还是看得出来\n它的这个贬值的话\n大家都拿日本来赚钱\n所以整件事情其实是表面上\n就是告诉你说有方法\n你就是生喜罢\n然而其实你说\n贝森特就只是表面上没有\n其实贝森特其实还需要潜在的意思\n什么意思呢\n首先我觉得贝森特认为\n过去长久以来\n包括现在高市早苗\n尊奉的安倍经济学\n已经告一段落了\n因為過去安倍經濟學就是貨幣寬鬆\n日幣當中貶值寬鬆\n所以你刺激整個經濟\n但是這麼多年下來\n你結果你在貶成這個失控的狀況\n你應該要結束了\n而且背後表示說日本有兩個東西\n第一個 你的貨幣政策\n到你的日本央行\n看著它這樣貶成一塌糊塗\n你到底貨幣是政策什麼\n怎麼會到現在失控呢\n貨幣政策背後就是產業政策\n你日本產業政策當中始終是中出口\n因為你中汽車業\n製造業你只要貶值\n在國際上賺很多錢\n但你國內的東西雖然升值你覺得你可控\n那到底你的產業政策是什麼\n你不能就這樣放任過去\n總之日本政府\n我覺得倍生的起來就是\n日本政府你要把所有政策弄清楚\n不能只認令\n然後包括現在日元貶值的時候\n你就一直到處在挪錢\n拿美元再拿美債\n所以我覺得就這樣講\n日本本身基本上是非常非常兩難的\n因為債務高的時候\n他們付出太大的利息\n日本國債現在已經超過200%的\n本身的這個債務的部分狀況\n但是如果你說升值經濟真的是很難刺激了\n你說貝森特自己還不是一樣\n他希望日本升值解決問題\n可是日本日元升值的時候\n華爾街股市的日本的錢全部都回去\n你說對美股沒有震動嗎\n大家都矛盾\n好 那另外一方面我們也持續看到說\n一方面是貝森特要求的這個事情\n現在日本可能9月份升息\n但是現在持續的就是受到弱勢日元的影響\n让日本的小老百姓的生活越来越辛苦了\n而且现在已经有实际的数字去证实说\n在今年尤其是9月份\n甚至一整年这个食品跟饮料的价格\n真的是狂飙\n我们就看9月份就好了\n这一次确定涨价会有195家的\n主要食品跟饮料业者\n涨价项目高达4900项\n是去年同期的三倍\n如果是说我们从今年一整年\n到现在来看的话\n包括了涨价的食品跟饮料\n达到了19000多个项目\n主要的原因就是我们刚刚提到的\n第一个是日元皮卵\n第二个是石油价格飙涨\n当然会影响到包括整体在日本的运输成本\n塑胶袋这些都会变贵\n再来就是有关于物流成本\n跟人力燃料成本全部都在增加\n也让这个超市的标价也一起暴涨\n那么有一位网猴他就证实说\n他去美国在当地的机场\n当时他只是拿了架上的一罐水\n跟一包饼干\n结果他就吓到了\n原来这个弱势的日元\n在国外这么的难用\n因为他当时买的这个水\n跟饼干的价格高达了15美元\n换算就要2400日元\n他感叹说\n现在真的是鬼通膨\n日元结束了\n这是来自于这网红的说法\n同时也反映了很多日本民间\n小老百姓的心声\n将军怎么看\n我认为日本它出两个问题\n第一个它货币政策出了问题\n经济政策也出了问题\n它这个经济政策\n我们可以看出来\n这两个加在一起\n就是双低跟双高\n哪个双低呢\n它的经济成长率低\n今年2026年经济成长率就1.1%\n就是一经济成长率\n你看它这么低的经济成长率\n那你的所得的增加相当有限\n每个人都要过苦日子\n因为只成长1%\n另外一低呢\n就是我们讲利率\n现在日币的利率就1%\n那我干嘛要存钱\n我存美金好了\n美金还3.5%\n我这边1%\n我去抛售日年买美金\n我每一个月赚3.5%\n3.5%减这个1%\n我还赚2.5%\n我根本都不要去做事\n我去借钱好了\n就存过去\n1%而已\n我就存3.5%\n不是就2.5%\n利率那么低\n那大家你就知道\n钱就在扁\n你经济成长率低\n你没办法\n没有动能\n那你哪个是双高呢\n第一个我认为通货膨胀高\n你通货膨胀\n今年2020年\n当然还在走\n已经到达目前是通货膨胀1.9%\n你经济成长率才1.1\n我现在通货膨胀1.9\n换句话你物价越来越高\n你物价100块的话\n你每个增加的就将近就1.9\n那就是双高\n通货膨胀高\n通货膨胀压过经济成长率\n你经济成长通货膨胀吃光光\n你怎么办\n对不对\n那再来就是我们讲的利差大\n你利差大\n大家就要走货币投资\n投机\n货币投机 利差大\n我刚讲过\n这个美元是3.5%\n你只有一%\n那我就是做这个\n大家做投机\n货币投机\n那货币投机\n金融投机\n你经济没有成长\n所以出了这个问题\n出来之变\n货币真的跟经济出了问题\n那还有一个\n不要忘了\n国际大环境\n国际大环境\n伊朗战争\n可能通膨让你受不了\n为什么\n因为日本都在进口石油\n那你就是石油\n天然气都在涨价\n你日本要想到\n你这个状况要持续\n第二个\n美国保护主义\n美國對日本一直瞌睡啊\n你保護主義你日本還東西想賣到美國去嗎?\n從1985年9月22號的廣場協議到現在為止。\n都一直限制你啊。他就拿這個小岩高牆關稅幫你擋住。\n所以日本想要再賣美國來賺錢,困難度也是增加。\n最后一个就是讲的中国大陆\n因为他们两个关系搞不好\n中国大陆一直限制\n稀土不卖给你\n我看你能够做多少东西\n对不对\n然后电动车我一直\n中国大陆电动车一直攻占\n这些其他国家市场\n压缩了日本的汽车工业\n所以你看看\n那像日本面临这些种种的因素\n他当然小老百姓也哭呆了乐趣\n那我认为因为日本的GDP\n是38000块美金\n每一个人\n所以我认为他有忍受度\n但是要过苦日子\n今天有关于这场的美债美元危机\n我们要来看到是美国的公债\n正式的突破了40兆美元大关了\n而且现在看到殖利率的部分\n冲破了5.3%\n现在贝森特说他要扩大回购\n还被骂是在玩火\n会不会演变成下一个\n来自专家说的美元危机呢\n刚刚我们提到了有关于日本的部分\n过去在广场协议之后\n日本失落了20年\n现在日本会不会为了救美国\n再失落另外的20年\n最后第三个火线话题\n我们会看到有关于美国老百姓\n这场危机烧到了美国老百姓去了\n房贷利率跟沃尔玛\n都已经出现了一些问题\n尤其是房贷现在来到了一个新高数字\n川普会不会在这种选举的各种压力下\n现在看到的这些压力成为他的经济炸弹呢\n今天就这些议题\n我们会请来宾来深度剖析\n好 来看到的是最新消息\n美债破了40兆之后\n包括了7月份单月的预算赤字\n也突破了4000多亿美元\n这个数字什么意思\n其实已经是5年来最高的单月记录了\n而目前看到的赤字缺口\n已经来到了1.8兆美元的数字\n贝森特可及了\n现在他也出来放话了\n他先说认为赤字极有可能\n现在已经见顶了\n要大家不要过度的担心\n或过度的解读\n他说现在美国政府\n有想出一些方法来救经济\n这经济的救法\n有三个面向来看到\n他第一个说\n首先他们会靠经济的成长\n关税更多的支出\n还有削减政府支出\n减税等等\n把美国的债务从泥澳里面拉出来\n另外他也说了\n要扩大长天期美债的回购\n从20亿美元一口气提高到\n40亿美元来支撑\n长债的价格来压低美债的殖利率\n真的有效吗\n我们最新看到事实上\n消息就是市场完全不买单\n来看到最新美国的公债殖利率\n出现现在是公债的一个抛售潮\n所以30年级的国债殖利率\n已经冲破了5%\n一度是接近了5.3%的历史新高档\n恐怕接下来专家说的\n就会引爆下一波是美元的信用危机\n会不会出现货币贬值呢\n再来看到几个专家怎么做的分析\n第一个我们来看到\n桥水基金创办人说\n最快有可能在这种赤字问题之下\n美债一年内甚至最晚五年内\n就会立刻引爆债务的危机\n再来看到也有人说\n即使现在美债在川普政府\n要求国内金融机构购买之下\n但是四分之一的美债\n还是海外的买家\n他说美国现在在缺乏信用的\n一个危机之下\n恐怕找不到买家\n都非常不利美债的一个发展\n那么包括了这个会市的部分\n美元我们刚刚说了\n恐怕引爆美元的危机\n是因为也有一个消息支撑\n上个礼拜五\n纽约会市对美元的主要货币\n下跌了0.1%\n来到98\n已经是三个月来的一个低点了\n所以今天节目一开始\n先请教委员怎么看\n贝森特说的\n赤字已经见顶了\n接下来他有用一些经济上面的成长\n关税削减支出\n要来救美债\n注意了这个30年期的美债殖利率\n已经冲破了5.3%\n是不是如市场所说的\n现在贝森特是在玩火呢\n进一步会不会从美债引爆美元危机\n委员怎么看\n贝森特根本就是在鬼扯\n那么当然你说要鬼扯也不是不行\n但是总是要讲的稍微专业跟漂亮一点\n你才能够让市场买单\n但是现在市场又不笨\n贝森特说现在的赤字已经见顶了\n各位知道現在赤字缺口\n剛才這個施明告訴大家已經1.8兆了\n40兆 1.8兆\n照這個持續規模下去的話\n大概再過一年就要快準備要逼近44兆 45兆了\n那麼這樣快速膨脹這個政府財政赤字的速度\n這是前所未有的事情\n那麼你說當然這個貝斯特可以畫一個大餅\n他說要經濟成長\n美國的經濟成長不會一下變成20%\n所以他的經濟成長再高也就是多一兩個百分點\n你说靠经济成长就可以把这个债务弥补起来吗\n太难了\n关税收入\n到现在为止美国的关税收进来了多少\n到底有没有实质的帮助\n制造业到底有没有回流\n大家都心知肚明\n就是美国在干这件对等关税的事情\n是一件完全是竹篮打水一场空的一个行动\n所以你说靠关税收入能够收进多少钱\n这又是另外一个问号\n那你还别讲消减支出\n现在还在打仗了\n接下来美国还要去补充它\n所有短缺的军事装备\n那也是一笔钱\n那不是天上掉下来的\n所以这些钱难道不要花吗\n所以美国跟中国大陆最大的差别是什么\n中国大陆举债在做基础建设\n改善人民生活\n美国举债是买炸弹去打仗用的\n所以这是两个国家\n为什么在这几年的发展过程当中\n会有这么大的一个落差的\n一个最主要的原因\n好 现在美债的状况的确很糟\n殖利率一直不断的往上攀升\n我们看到的几个数据都非常的不好\n刚才施敏说\n这个30年期长天期的美债的殖利率\n飙到了5.33以上了\n我看到最高到5.34\n现在稍微回挡起来\n但是也在5.25 5.27左右\n所以它其实这个殖利率实在太高了\n那殖利率高代表什么\n代表第一\n美国要跟大家借钱\n它要付比较高的利息\n那为什么要付比较高的利息呢\n因为大家都不想借钱给美国\n那大家对美国有债性的危机\n觉得你这个债务可能会违约\n本来就已经觉得你会违约了\n你川普还来补一枪\n说我要用美军来互盘\n那这代表什么你知道吗\n大家现在最担心美债的\n就是川普这一招\n川普去年就已经放话了\n说跟美国友好的国家\n这个30年的公债\n要不要延长到100年\n然后利息要不要打个折\n这摆明就是明抢了\n所以当川普讲了这个话之后\n市场就更恐慌了\n想说不得了了\n我借你30年期\n这个借给你美国这个钱\n然后呢\n搞不好一瞬之间\n你就来给我来个利息打折\n虽然你没有完全的债务违约\n但是这是另外一种形式的债务违约了\n所以因此30年期的公债在攀升\n就算了\n10年期公债也在攀升\n前两天我看到的数字是殖利率到了4.7\n大家预估到今年底要破5\n各位\n10年期的美元的这个公债的殖利率\n要到破5了\n然后这是一个多么令人惊讶的事情\n过去十年期的职率率不会这么高\n为什么\n因为十年期算是短天期的\n虽然不是一年两年\n可是相对来说比较短\n就是美国跟你借钱借十年\n这十年它总不至于有什么太大的变动\n所以它不用付你太高的利息\n可是现在连十年的\n美国的公债利率都要到5%了\n这是一个很严重的问题\n关键在哪里\n债性问题\n大家就是怕你耍赖\n怕你债务违约\n然后第二个关键问题是什么呢\n供需失衡\n就是美国现在\n還是你乾脆去買Anthorpic\n或者是SpaceX的股票比較划算呢\n所以在這種供需強烈失衡的情況之下\n日本又在盜美債\n英國在賣美債\n中國大陸也在避險賣美債\n大家都在賣\n市場上一手的美債\n大家知道當供需失衡的結果是什麼\n就是美國必須用更高的利息\n才能夠讓市場過度的供給的美債\n能夠平息下來\n所以你看到\n這個貝森特講的那些話都是鬼扯\n他说他要回购美债\n你怎么回购美债\n美债你40亿的金额\n就杯水车薪\n光日本卖美债去互盘日盈\n一个月丢出来的美债都不止40亿了\n你这40亿能够救得了谁\n更蠢的一件事情是\n背身上干的这件事情\n会打乱了美国整个美元的体系\n因为他等于是在跟联准会对干的了\n你回购美债\n你就是要把美元丢到市场上来\n所谓回购40亿\n他就是拿40亿的美金去买美债\n市场上忽然间就多了40亿的美元\n可是联组会准备要升息\n准备要打压通膨\n他要用升息的方式\n就是要把美元收回银行体系\n所以你今天是在跟美元系统对坐\n在这种情况之下\n你当然会让大家笑掉大门牙\n好 那如果说我们看到贝森特\n他现在做的这个回购\n是一个杯水车型\n那是不是美国会不会找日本来帮忙呢\n也就是说这个稳住日元\n来避免美债持续的\n被日本给抛售下去\n重点是这一次\n日本会再次成为\n美国的牺牲品吗\n因为我们知道\n先前的广场协议\n日本已经因此\n因为这个日元的升值\n最后付出了\n失落20年的代价\n难道日本可能\n再次的付出代价\n再次失落另外一个20年吗\n那杨老师又怎么看\n当初广场协议的时候\n其实是美国认为\n美日之间的贸易力差太大\n那关键因素\n他认为日元应该\n反映它正当的价值\n所以它要求日元升值\n其实同时它也要求\n德国的马克升值\n这个答应之后\n倒不是单纯直接\n就是因为签了广场协议\n马上就造成日元的整个问题\n然后财政问题\n然后最后造成日本的不景气\n其实我觉得当初日本的银行\n尤其就是日本银行\n它的中央银行叫日本银行\n采取了这个极度的宽松政策\n后来就造成整个泡沫\n房地产 股市连续泡沫\n然后呢就开到开始出现\n那有人说叫做资产负债表的\n这个就是说亏损\n因此这个时候呢\n预言造成的变化\n长期的不景气\n那日本就用\n就是公共支出的方式\n来去希望能够增加刺激消费甚至通膨\n可是你就可以看到日元现在面临到的贬值\n关键的因素其实是它跟美元之间的利率差别\n我们叫Carry Trade\n这种汇率差的差别使得一些国际上的资金\n就是借日元然后买美元\n你就看到这样的情况就是有这样操作的空间\n那然后呢\n当然再加上日本本身的经济\n也是情况看起来OK\n然后它的出口也要扩张\n它同时也没有能力去\n这个升息太多\n因为它现在是1%\n美国大概是3.6%\nOK 这个是日元的问题\n但我觉得这整个现在问题\n关键还是美元\n以及美债\n还有呢 美国的经济\n刚才大前委员讲到\n连续两次\n第一次是贝森特来救日元\n第二次是贝森特救他自己的美债\n他救日元一周效果\n他救美债\n40亿救美债\n一天效果\n马上就回来\n今天日元比美元是多少\n159\n他那个时候是160\n掉到了155\n然后一周效果就回到了158 59\n现在一直在停留在这个情况\n然后呢\n为什么美国要去救日元\n因为他怕日本卖美债\n日本现在拥有1.14兆的美债\n那过去三个月\n他卖了1000亿美债\n贝斯特曾经骂他过\n所以现在如果说\n以美债的这个情况\n如果日本抛售这个\n不管是长期短期的这个债\n美国的国债的话呢\n马上会造成市场的效益\n所以呢\n他不准他卖美债\n那就是说我们来组成一个\n美日货币联盟\n我来帮助你\n但事实上\n它是卖欧元就日元\n贝森特真的是\n我觉得我现在有怀疑\n他当初这种\n就是说市场操守的能力\n也就是说\n他那个时候帮索罗斯\n做超盘手的时候\n第一个\n你怎么卖欧元就日元\n那表示你对你美元没信心\n第二个\n你为什么去\n拿40亿去救美债\n就表示你对美债\n你的未来不具信心\n现在整个问题都不是钱的问题\n而是一个信心的问题\n大家现在对美元的整个债务结构\n是没有信心\n因为你现在极度的膨胀你的国债\n然后你自己又极度膨胀\n你的赤字预算\n这几年之内你造成美债突破40兆\n所以这个时候你不准日本卖美债\n然后自己又在对美债做\n不具信心的操作\n那讲到日本会不会有什么情况呢\n我觉得日本现在跟在86年的时候不一样了\n因为基本上企业都还算是在赚钱\n那就业也OK\n只不过是呢\n他的日元真的是贬到\n不知道怎么去救他\n那缓慢的他会升息的情况之下呢\n大概就维持这样一个情况一段时间\n但是未来如果美国真的自己美在\n持续的这个出现问题的时候\n我觉得日本还是为了自救\n某种程度还是会继续抛售美债的\n最后的问题呈现的\n还是美国的整个债务跟财政的问题\n好 所以到头来\n美国的国债问题\n还是得要自己好好的去解决\n包括眼前的债务\n还有它的严重的赤字问题\n那其实现在看起来\n这个美债跟美元的问题\n也直接影响到了\n美国的一般的小老百姓的家庭当中\n也就是美国的家庭了\n我们从几个层面\n几个数据来特别看\n首先是关乎小老百姓\n最直接的就是房贷了\n房贷利率现在来到了一个新高\n30年期的部分\n现在来到了6.65%\n这个数字是高于去年同期的\n6.58%的\n那当然了\n因为你这个没钱买房子的话\n也会影响到你的消费力道\n霍尔玛我们来看到零售企业\n最新第一季美国铜电销售成长\n只剩下2.6%\n创下6年最慢的成长速度\n再来看到美国的油价\n在这个伊朗的战事爆发之后\n一口气上涨了四成\n现在来到美加伦\n大约落在4.11美元\n柴油价格来到了新高\n美加伦5.58美元\n高于拜登执政时期\n高盛是这样讲的\n他认为现在美国的市场\n弥漫着停滞性通膨的一个味道\n而且最新民调来看到\n过去共和党主打的都是经济牌\n结果现在民调显示\n民主党在经济议题上\n首度的领先了共和党\n代表说这些有关于民生财政的问题\n都已经成为川普在其中选举上\n非常严重的\n我們先看到有關於GDP的部分。GDP的話,我們看到美國的第一季,它其實GDP是2.1,可是第二季的部分呢,現在所看到的數據到達1.5%,\n那也就是它不断的向下降\n那第二个有关于失业率的部分\n那我们可以慢慢的\n从这个有关于现在的这个\n房价利率的不断高涨\n以及Walmart的这一个消费降温\n我们慢慢就会看出结果\n那有关于通膨的问题\n我们看到6月的美国的通膨是在3.5%\n那7月的话到达3.4%\n其实也维持在一个平均水准上面\n我们刚刚谈的三个数据\n也就是经济成长\n以及失业率\n以及高通膨的部分\n其实这个都反映出\n现在美国进入了停滞性通膨的时代\n那进入这个时代\n那如果我们反推回去看\n美国的国债\n现在突破了40兆的部分\n40兆是什么样的一个概念\n也就是它的债务利息来讲的话\n那大概也就是每年是9000亿到一兆的部分\n也就是这一兆它通通要拿来还款\n那这一个一兆对于美国的影响是什么\n其实我们看到\n写过文明以及帝国\n这很多著作的历史学家\n我们叫做佛格森\n那他其实在今年的5月7号\n他提出了一个佛格森定律\n那这个定律里面讲的是什么呢\n也就是这一个霸权的国家\n支付债务的利息\n如果超过他的国防预算的话\n也就是他无法因应这个国防预算的话\n他的霸权地位难以维持\n这个不是说我们现在这样子唱衰美国\n而是从历史上来讲\n我们刚刚讲弗格森他是历史学家\n他指出当初的威尼斯帝国\n荷兰帝国 法莱斯帝国 奥匈帝国\n以及一战二战才结束的大英帝国\n通通都有这个特色\n所以其实美国现在\n有关于贝森特他要挡这个美债\n被人家笑说这是拿纸巾挡海啸\n在这个枪桑上面贴OK棒\n一点也不为过\n美债危机我们要赶快来看到\n已经不是未来可能发生\n而是已经快速的逼近到一个新的历史关卡了\n大家还记得吗\n我们稍微回顾一下\n在今年三月份的时候\n当时我们不是谈吗\n说美债已经突破了\n39兆美元大关\n那么这个速度\n没有想到短短的半年之间\n快速的增加\n原本市场预估说\n至少要到大概\n40兆美元大关\n要到今年的10月份吧\n没有想到\n现在来自于专家\n特别去做了一个估算\n可能接下来几天之内\n美债就可能突破了\n40兆美元大关了\n甚至还有一个市场人士\n几个市场人士做了预估说\n美国的国债到2029年\n恐怕上看将近50兆美元\n这是一个最新的数字\n在强力的美债的卖压之下\n我们要来赶快看到的是美债殖利率了\n尤其是长天期的受到了非常大的影响\n30年期的国债殖利率正式的冲破了5.3%\n创下19年新高\n注意了这个数字是金融海啸之后的\n最新高的一个数字\n美国现在压力非常大的原因\n是因为它光是一年\n每年要还的利息支出\n就上看1.5兆美元\n成为现在联邦政府\n最大的支出项目之一\n所以今天节目一开始\n我们先请教大使怎么看了\n美债40兆\n现在可以说已经正式的进入倒数了\n殖利率突破了5.3%\n现在再看说30年期的美债殖利率\n有没有可能甚至往5.5%\n甚至6%来发展\n如果发生的话\n会不会迎来一场大型的债务危机\n美国到底是如何走到今天这一步的\n大师怎么看\n对 美国事实上的话\n它的债就是最近十年差不多\n就快速增长\n本来大概差不多五兆多\n现在变成四十兆\n这里面当然有战争的因素\n也有新冠那段时间\n政府举债很多\n还有就是这一阵子\n新冠结束以后\n这些战争\n从恶务战争到美伊战争\n就让美国政府的债务快速往上增加\n所以这个是一个短期的\n可是美债它一般来讲\n它有三座大山\n三座大山\n第一个就是长置性\n美国政府的强制性支出越来越多\n这些强制性主要是社会福利的\n这些支出\n医疗保健的支出\n因为这是全世界的现象\n美国社会也面向高龄化\n高龄化的社会就变成这种强制支出\n在这个社保跟医疗上面支出\n它也是增长得非常的快\n美国政府在这方面它不能够裁减\n所以它这种是所谓的\n自动驾驶模式的支出\n它一定要支出\n所以政府的支出在不断的扩大\n第二个就是说利息成本也爆炸\n美国现在这个所谓债务的利息\n一年大概就是一兆美金以上\n今年有人估计到1.5兆\n那么因为今年过了一半了\n还没有到全部出来\n那如果说这个债务的利息\n就上兆美金的话\n那那个政府的支出\n政府的这个债务\n那就很难解决\n第三个就是美国的政府的收入\n它的增长不如它的开支\n它的增长事实上在停滞\n尤其共和党的政府\n大概讲的都是减税\n很少去征税\n即使民主党的政府\n也不敢轻言征税\n所以美国的\n基本上的政府的财政收入\n长期的趋势就是不断的下降\n所以在支出畅生\n这个收入下降\n然后再加上有一些特殊的状况\n战争的状况\n瘟疫的状况之下\n还有他这个人口老化\n政府要负担的基本经费\n不断增加税\n所以它的债务就演变\n累积的非常的快\n非常非常的快\n那当然现在这个贝森特\n他有一个政策\n他也很具体\n他叫一个333政策\n他要控制这个债\n他第一个三\n是希望美国的GDP的成长在3%\n对 他希望达到这个\n第二个三呢\n是美国的财政\n政府的财政赤字\n这要控制在GDP的3%之内\nGDP的3%之内\n第三个三呢\n川普很喜欢用的一件事\n就每天石油的产量能够大达300万桶\n所以他这个三个三\n增加石油是怎么样\n就是增加收入\n那另外一方面控制这个赤字\n然后他希望经济能够成长\n那这个三个三看起来都不容易\n那不过现在美国基本上就是说\n它的国债的这个基本上的持有\n是国内的持有率越来越高\n国外的持有率这个降低\n不过这个比例的话\n我们会认为国外的比例很高\n其实国外的持有美国美债比例\n大概只占有多少\n不到十分之一\n不到四分之一\n大概就是9.3兆\n而外國的政府持有的也不過3.9兆\n那外國的私人銀行私人持有的大概是5.4兆\n那其他美債40兆 将近40兆\n31.4兆\n还是美国国内持有的\n那大家说有的民众\n有美国的什么\n还有这些各种基金\n包括退休基金\n还有什么呢\n共同基金 也是持有大批美債\n所以你要说美債完全失控的话\n可是美国国内的这个持有率\n还是占了比较居高的情况之下\n我个人倒不是那么悲观\n不是那麼悲觀\n好 這邊我們是看到是幾個統計的數字\n可以看到美國的國債很快的\n就會正式的突破了40兆美元大關\n剛剛大使也清楚的解析了為什麼的原因\n那現在我們也來看到一些比較具體的數字\n就是說到底現在美國赤字到底有多高\n現在最新的數字是達到了2.1兆\n比去年增加了2000億美元\n那我們剛剛也提到債息的支出\n一年的利息是1.5兆美元\n等於說每一個月就要燒千億美元\n現在更危險的事情是政府的支出\n遠大於收入\n而且是達到兩倍以上\n那剛剛大使也特別提到了\n有關於國債的持有\n也就是國外的持有國債的國家\n其實我們看到兩個國家\n現在也正在大幅的賣壓美債\n那包括很重要的持有國\n日本跟中國大陸\n首先看到日本\n一口氣減持了264億美元\n是主要的减持国家\n尤其现在也有专家解读说\n日本你现在是不是在背刺美国呢\n就是因为你的日元现在强\n非常的弱\n一直在贬值\n所以你是不是要抛售美债\n来救你的日元呢\n中国大陆的部分减持幅度\n也有259亿美元\n那目前持有的美债\n是6000多亿美元\n创下2008年金融海啸以来最低了\n年减幅是超过13%\n先来看到有关于日本的部分\n為了救日元是在被刺美國嗎\n如果這樣的話\n會不會把接下來的美債殖利率\n推得越來越高\n會不會爆發美國的財政問題呢\n上次哥有怎麼看\n好 首先我們可以看得出來\n先前美國介入日元\n那麼所謂這個介入是意思\n因為100億\n那麼日本當時都準備了700多億美金\n所以它就是一個動作\n主要是嚇阻一下這些\n在外面的這些投資基金\n所以它也不是真正的什麼救美元\n而且賺個人情嘛\n給告示著瞄\n他最大的意義主要還是說\n這個市場投機太多\n一旦萬一日元的貶值真的大崩潰\n日元貶值崩潰會對美國整體來說\n就是一個比較難搞\n我認為其實不是會太大影響\n什麼意思呢\n就是說比如說\n比如說剛剛講\n現在以美債的問題\n債務的連動性\n然後另外美股的部分\n現在是AI 經濟動能\n如果現在這個泡沫\n一旦有比較大的一個\n國際變數的時候比較難處理\n再加上還有戰爭的因素\n所以美国对于日元的态度\n其实还是就是你知道\n就是玉皇大帝看人间\n没有真正很认真\n就是说稍微处理一下\n当然美债\n我想其实大家对美债当中\n既然会看到这些吓人的数字\n特别是今年一定会破40兆美金\n40兆\n这个东西很可怕\n但是如果你真正的懂\n这个国际货币跟国际资本\n到国际的金融的时候\n你要理解\n其实我不能说不严重\n它之所以现在都觉得很严重\n因为过去没有发生过\n比如说以美债来说\n过去没有到这样子的规模\n过去所谓的30年的殖利率\n过去认为大概3.8%\n也就是说你知道我们美元存钱有利息\n美债买美债会利息\n过去觉得3.8%就是个安全可控的时候\n破4 甚至4.2%\n会得到危险表示波动大了\n然后现在到5了\n所以因为没有经历过\n所以大家很惊吓\n然而我们要告诉大家\n其实这个东西并不是让他想象中的\n為什麼這樣講呢\n就是說這並不是美國會破\n政府會破產\n美國會倒了\n不可能啦\n而且我們現在看美元現在的強勢的狀態\n相較於其他全世界的貨幣\n人民幣英鎊\n包括等等\n日元不要說了\n誰會\n每個人都要美元\n也就是說美元現在強勢跟穩定\n甚至可能比美債好\n美國現在就是一個政府裡頭\n手上有很多很多的金融工具\n而且那麼多猶太人\n美國對於法律跟金融\n那麼多的人才\n創造出遊戲規則\n現在觀眾朋友大家買的ETF\n你看過去沒有 為什麼生出來\n就猶太人又發明了一個\n可以刺激投資的很多工具\n所以美國其實是\n我們都有能力處理\n那現在就是這個東西\n是過去沒有經歷過的\n大家注意為什麼美債\n我說大家不要想像中很驚嚇\n因為有FED\nFED當然是對於美元\n然後同時控制美債\n它有一個特別這樣的機構\n全世界的央行沒有辦法跟FED比\n因為FED控制的是美元跟美債\n在這個世界的絕對值\n我們知道陽光空氣水\n這裡到底哪個最重要\n其實就是空氣\n因為呼吸一秒鐘沒的就死了\n我覺得美元包括美元系統\n包括美債\n它現在全世界從貨幣資本金融的呼吸空氣\n所以你要說完全就是不能呼吸了\n不是美國死了\n是全世界都死了\n而且現在大家要注意狀況\n美元就流動性\n大家都有美元賣來賣去\n所以那個流動性在這裡\n好 美債是FED來固定美元資產\n什麼意思呢\n我有 你有房子 我有股票\n然後他有台幣\n可是如果在國際投資當中\n你要怎麼轉換\n你這個很難換\n也就是說流動性這個方便性\n第一個當然是美元\n所以全世界任何時刻\n包括這次戰爭\n為什麼美元沒有貶值\n因為美元流動性還是最重要\n而且在股市 全球股市那麼大\n第二個部分 美債\n它雖然是美債\n但是美債你只要丟出去了\n你就要換手了\n包括我們剛剛講\n中國大陸跟日本拋售美債\n馬上就有人接\n因為它變現性很好\n變現金不是你我士金小民\n我們都要現金\n國家政府需要變現\n像中國政府他算要拋售美債\n你以為他在拋光嗎\n中國在國際上\n包括採購還有很多的東西\n各種的東西\n他還是要有美元交易\n中國政府不是說\n大家都在認為人民幣交易\n都不要美元交易的\n沒有\n所以中國大陸拋售美債的時候\n是換取美元\n然後做一些部分的\n這種國際的現金流通\n這一般沒有思考的\n所以這裡頭不是說美債\n所以美債殖利率高\n那问题在哪里呢\n主要就是说\n因为不是他们要\n而是说大家觉得信用\n本质的信用\n有很多其他东西\n于是殖利率不是华尔街要挟的\n是自然市场产生的\n因为大家就觉得\n我有更多的投资工具\n美债长期利率30年\n30年后才能兑现\n所以它要一直推高\n利息就会高了\n可是美债的殖利率高的时候\n就表示什么意思呢\n我什么都不要动\n我作为风险性最低的收市买美债\n我每年就有5点多%的利率\n比现在我们拿台币去存得还好高\n所以我觉得最后大家要特别注意的部分\n我们对美债危机是一个美国政府管理\n它不会是整个全球的金融货币系统崩溃\n除非有新的部分\n目前无论人民没有任何的货币\n都没有办法成为阳光空气水的空气\n目前美元或美债系统才是\n好 所以我们看到美债危机到底\n我们谈了这么久会不会立刻的爆发\n现在还要打上一个问号一个大问号\n但是呢 現在要來看到是美國內部的信用危機\n卻是非常急迫的\n我們要來看到一些具體的數字\n因為它的債務問題一路的已經衍生到\n從政府到了企業金融 甚至是一般家庭\n首先我們來看到有關於私募貸款的部分\n現在正式的來到了2兆美元大關\n市場說現在面臨的是10年來最大的考驗\n尤其是國際信評機構會議發布的最新報告\n它一共這一次是追蹤了1000多家的企業\n裡面得到的結果是\n美国的私募信贷借款人违约率\n有7月攀升到了一个新高的记录\n而且非常\n这个是已经深的有违约的\n90天的一个比例\n已经来到了12.8%\n远高于2022年当时的7.6%\n信用卡平均年率率\n也已经来到了第一季\n最高达到了24%\n代表说因为呢\n现在美国生活成本真的是非常的高\n而且还有通膨的问题等到\n美国人用信用卡来去度日\n已经变成了一个非常\n这个已经变成了一个常态\n所以接下来美国的这个经济\n还有财政问题\n张将军又怎么看\n我认为美国现在这个状况\n一般来讲\n虽然是不理想\n这个美下预矿\n但是我认为它撑得过去\n我们看\n我们从几个指标来看\n第一个美国现在经济是成长\n它今年的预估经济成长率\n是1.9%\n它成长\n它没有衰退\n没有说我现在也开始富的了\n比去年差\n去年的经济成长2025\n美国是2.5%\n那今年是1.9%\n它还是成长\n那既然是成长型\n它的所得是增加的\n第二个我们看美国\n美国现在的全国总生产\n是29兆美元\n但有人有另外有算法\n但是我们拿29兆美元来看\n以这个102兆对它来看\n一来比\n占比就小了\n因为我体量大\n你这个小数目\n就相对的被我稀释\n那这个意思在什么\n美国对信用危机的忍受度是高的\n因为我有钱\n我没有钱我马上破产\n我不行了 我受不了\n现在美国的每一个人均所得\n是8万9千块美金\n所以你这个钱来看\n对我来讲是相对稀释的\n现在美国人每一个人的\n信用贷款的额度\n是每一个人平均欠了\n超值的透值7886块美金\n还不到1万\n但是我的手的收入\n我全年大家平均\n我是8.9万 8万9千块\n够不够\n我这个信用的人数是够的\n因为我赚的多\n当然我花的更多\n但是那比例一摊就小了\n另外我们来看\n就是我们知道的经济成长率\n我们现在看通货膨胀\n美国的通货膨胀\n今年年增率\n平均年增率\n因为现在才8月还没有结束\n2026年\n大概是2.5%\n那2%换句话说\n美元我是在贬值\n因为通货膨胀\n钱就是要贬\n现在我们讲最高的年增率\n你刚才有说过就是\n我们30年期美债的年增率是\n这个利息是5.3\n你5.3减掉2.5\n因为你要贬2.5\n我刚才讲 平均来看\n你也只有2.8\n高不高\n而且30年美国国债是比较高的\n最高是\n你两年期 五年期 十年期\n就相对于30年期要来的低\n所以我认为从总统迹象来看\n通膨经济市场的个人的\n这个评手来看\n美国的这种信用危机 信贷危机\n还不至于像我们想象的那么严重",
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    {
      "start": 0.0,
      "end": 2.24,
      "text": "貝森特這句話意思就是說",
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      "end": 8.0,
      "text": "你不准賣美債,你只能升息。高市早苗如果他要升息的話",
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      "text": "那他就要面臨可能比日元貶值更大的衝擊。",
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      "start": 12.0,
      "end": 14.0,
      "text": "你救美國,美國感謝你嗎?",
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      "start": 14.0,
      "end": 19.0,
      "text": "你要救日本,日本有25萬家殭屍企業",
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      "end": 22.0,
      "text": "因為他的銀行貸款的利息還很低。",
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      "start": 22.0,
      "end": 28.0,
      "text": "如果他的利息提高的話,那這些殭屍企業的銀行利率",
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      "start": 28.0,
      "end": 28.84,
      "text": "让他们破产",
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      "end": 31.0,
      "text": "25万的僵尸企业",
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      "end": 32.74,
      "text": "这样一破产下去",
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      "end": 35.74,
      "text": "日本会造成一个重大的经济危机",
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      "end": 39.78,
      "text": "今天有关于这一场美日之间要救",
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      "start": 39.78,
      "end": 41.54,
      "text": "日元的这一场大战",
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      "start": 41.54,
      "end": 42.68,
      "text": "我们持续来看到",
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      "end": 46.38,
      "text": "日本是不是又被逼到墙角了呢",
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      "start": 46.38,
      "end": 47.52,
      "text": "我们稍微回顾一下",
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      "end": 49.86,
      "text": "一个月前当时美国跟日本",
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      "start": 49.86,
      "end": 52.06,
      "text": "一起来集体要救日元",
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      "start": 52.06,
      "end": 54.6,
      "text": "上演了一场罕见的日元保卫战",
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      "text": "当时日本是砸下了",
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      "start": 56.56,
      "end": 58.22,
      "text": "15兆日元要来救会",
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    {
      "start": 58.22,
      "end": 61.92,
      "text": "创下了这个一个月内的一个最新记录",
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    {
      "start": 61.92,
      "end": 63.08,
      "text": "才一个月的时间",
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      "start": 63.08,
      "end": 64.7,
      "text": "但是我们要来看到的是",
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      "start": 64.7,
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      "text": "不只是日本救",
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      "start": 66.14,
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      "text": "当时美国也要救日元",
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      "text": "所以他就跟着跟进",
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      "text": "卖了日元来买日元",
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      "start": 71.92,
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      "text": "结果发生了什么事",
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    {
      "start": 73.36,
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      "text": "才一个月的时间",
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      "text": "日元再度的跌破了160关卡了",
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      "text": "眼看这样子救日元还是没有效的",
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      "start": 81.56,
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      "text": "最新消息我们要来看到",
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      "start": 83.36,
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      "text": "美国财长贝森特这一次不演了",
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      "text": "干脆就直接跟日本放话了",
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      "start": 88.92,
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      "start": 91.92,
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      "text": "你赶快升息吧",
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      "start": 93.34,
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      "text": "现在市场也压住说",
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      "start": 94.88,
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      "text": "在贝森特讲了这些话之后",
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      "start": 96.86,
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      "text": "日盈下一次的升息",
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    {
      "start": 98.36,
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      "text": "几率高达超过了七成的几率",
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      "start": 101.14,
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      "text": "重点是日本央行的利率政策",
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    {
      "start": 104.76,
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      "text": "竟然是轮到美国来指指点点",
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      "start": 107.84,
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      "text": "美国来指导",
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      "start": 108.92,
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      "text": "现在大家也在说",
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      "start": 110.18,
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      "text": "是连高斯早苗自己都不敢去指导",
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      "start": 112.86,
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      "text": "要求自己的央行总裁",
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    {
      "start": 114.68,
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      "text": "直田河南升级了",
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      "start": 116.24,
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      "text": "那美国凭什么呢",
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      "start": 117.68,
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      "text": "好我们又来看到",
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      "text": "那美国担心的点是什么呢",
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      "text": "就是因为日本是美国非常重要的",
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      "start": 123.56,
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      "text": "这个美债持有国",
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      "start": 124.74,
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      "text": "现在持有的规模",
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      "start": 127.16,
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      "text": "大概是达到了1.1兆美元的规模",
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      "start": 129.98,
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      "text": "要救日元的话",
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      "text": "可能他就会透过抛售美债",
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      "text": "买进日元来支撑他的汇率",
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      "text": "但是这也是美国同时最害怕的事情",
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      "start": 139.58,
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      "start": 141.34,
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      "text": "这么的严重啊",
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      "start": 142.4,
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      "text": "现在公债已经超过了40兆美元的大关",
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      "start": 145.72,
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      "text": "10年期的公债殖利率更是冲过了",
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    {
      "start": 148.62,
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      "text": "4.78%已经逼近5%这么危险的一个数字了",
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    {
      "start": 153.24,
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      "text": "贝森特的逻辑非常的清楚",
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      "start": 155.66,
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      "text": "他这一次不想要就是靠美元来",
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      "start": 159.04,
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      "text": "卖美元买日元来救日元了",
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      "text": "而是要靠日本自己升息来缩小",
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      "start": 164.62,
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      "text": "每日之间的这个利差",
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      "start": 166.34,
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      "text": "而这样子的话出来之后",
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    {
      "start": 168.28,
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      "text": "大家也在回顾说",
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    {
      "start": 169.44,
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      "text": "会不会当时1985年的广场协议",
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      "start": 172.44,
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      "text": "又再度的发酵了呢",
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      "start": 174.78,
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      "text": "让日本再次经历下一次的失落20年吗",
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    {
      "start": 178.32,
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      "text": "先来请教谢大使怎么看",
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      "start": 180.08,
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      "text": "当然了 贝森特这句话",
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      "start": 182.86,
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      "text": "反面的意思就是说",
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      "text": "你不准卖美债",
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      "start": 186.12,
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      "text": "我告诉你 你只能怎么样",
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      "start": 188.84,
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      "text": "你只能生息",
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      "text": "你两个选择 你只能生息",
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      "text": "这个其实在日本内部是有争论的",
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      "start": 196.44,
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      "text": "高市長 因為他這個執政",
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      "text": "就主政的經驗不足",
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      "start": 201.64,
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      "text": "然後他也是意識形態",
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      "start": 205.24,
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      "text": "意識形態建國的治國",
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      "text": "意識形態建國的都是有一個",
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      "start": 210.14,
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      "text": "就是說都有一個特色",
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    {
      "start": 212.24,
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      "text": "就是經濟要為政治服務",
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      "text": "不是政治為經濟服務",
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      "text": "有意識形態的國家",
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      "text": "政府都是這樣",
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      "start": 222.04,
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      "text": "用花錢去",
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      "text": "花钱去达到那个意识形态的目标",
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      "text": "那高斯藻苗就是这一种",
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      "start": 232.18,
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      "text": "这个自民党的造王者",
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      "text": "听说有一次就是说这个",
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      "start": 253.88,
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      "text": "好像想把高市找没有弄下来",
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      "text": "就是在怎么样来救",
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      "text": "喋喋不休的日元",
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      "text": "不能生息只能卖美债",
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      "text": "上一次卖了700多亿",
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      "text": "因为有美国出手",
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      "text": "不到10%",
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      "text": "不到10%",
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      "start": 283.08,
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      "text": "不到一成",
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      "text": "那你手上这个工具",
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      "text": "你拿着美债干嘛",
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      "text": "你死爆着美",
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      "text": "你救美国",
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      "text": "美国感谢你",
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      "text": "你要救日本",
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      "text": "你现在这次先卖1000亿",
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      "start": 294.22,
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      "text": "看看救不救得了",
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      "start": 296.34,
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      "text": "1000亿不足",
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      "start": 297.68,
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      "text": "1500亿下去",
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      "text": "日本现在的美债",
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    {
      "start": 302.1,
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      "text": "是一兆1000多亿",
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      "text": "你是在撑美元",
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    {
      "start": 310.8,
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      "text": "所以这个麻生他们是这样的看法",
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    {
      "start": 314.18,
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      "text": "你现在卖掉500亿",
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      "text": "卖掉1000亿美债的话",
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      "text": "那美国就不高兴了",
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      "text": "你这个是什么",
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      "text": "你这个是釜底",
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      "text": "你知道吗",
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      "text": "你这个背后插刀",
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      "start": 327.38,
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      "text": "所以贝生特一听",
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      "text": "你们这个日币守不住",
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      "text": "第一个讲就是说",
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      "text": "你不你要",
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      "text": "生息",
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      "text": "你这个利息就会吃掉日本国债",
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      "text": "国债的利息",
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      "start": 355.64,
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      "text": "国债这个日本政府",
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      "start": 357.32,
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      "text": "每年要负担的利息就很重",
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      "start": 359.3,
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      "text": "你再升息利息更重",
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      "text": "那会怎么样",
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      "start": 362.58,
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      "text": "排挤很多社会福利的这些开支",
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      "text": "还是政府的必要的开支",
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      "text": "因为日本的国债",
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      "start": 370.0,
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      "text": "它是目前它的GDP的2.6倍",
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      "start": 373.96,
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      "text": "如果以4兆来算日本的GDP的话",
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      "text": "那大概就是10.4兆美元的国债",
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      "start": 381.14,
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      "text": "日本这么小一个国家",
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    {
      "start": 382.88,
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      "text": "对不对",
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    {
      "start": 383.88,
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      "text": "它的国债是美国国债的四分之",
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      "start": 387.78,
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      "text": "这个好四分之一",
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      "text": "日本也不过",
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      "start": 390.56,
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      "text": "美国才不过40兆",
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      "start": 391.86,
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      "text": "它就10兆了",
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      "start": 392.92,
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      "text": "对",
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      "start": 393.6,
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      "text": "可是问题国债第一个",
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      "start": 396.0,
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      "text": "你如果升息的话",
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      "start": 397.66,
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      "text": "第一个日本政府的负担会更重",
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      "start": 401.6,
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      "text": "第二个问题是什么",
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      "start": 403.72,
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      "text": "第二个问题",
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      "text": "日本有25万家僵尸企业",
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      "start": 407.96,
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      "text": "这些僵尸企业还撑住的话",
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      "start": 410.92,
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      "text": "就是因为它的银行贷款的利息还很低",
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      "start": 414.1,
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      "text": "如果它的利息提高的话",
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      "start": 420.02,
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      "text": "会把这些僵尸企业都怎么样",
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    {
      "start": 421.76,
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      "text": "让他们破产",
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      "start": 422.56,
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      "text": "25万的僵尸企业",
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      "start": 424.84,
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      "text": "这样一破产下去",
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      "start": 426.4,
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      "text": "日本会造成一个重大的经济危机",
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      "start": 429.62,
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      "text": "那最主要是大量的失业人口",
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      "start": 432.56,
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      "text": "这是很严重的政治问题",
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      "start": 434.52,
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      "text": "所以我们就看吧",
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      "start": 436.52,
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      "text": "高市早苗如果他要生息的话",
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      "text": "那他就要面临日本的经济的一个",
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    {
      "start": 443.08,
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      "text": "可能比日元贬值更大的冲击",
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      "start": 445.56,
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      "text": "可是他敢去卖美债吗",
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      "start": 448.64,
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      "text": "他一切都要靠美国了",
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      "start": 450.42,
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      "text": "他现在不管搞军国主义",
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    {
      "start": 452.4,
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      "text": "搞一大堆美国人还没坑气",
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      "start": 454.66,
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      "text": "美国人要坑气了",
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      "start": 455.92,
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      "text": "他路就走不通了",
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      "start": 457.02,
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      "text": "所以他现在不敢得罪美国",
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      "start": 458.96,
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      "text": "所以我看他最后可能还是怎么样",
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      "start": 461.38,
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      "text": "就是升息",
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      "start": 462.78,
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      "text": "升息的话就看",
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      "start": 464.36,
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      "text": "那大家日本人就自己",
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      "start": 465.82,
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      "text": "自己看这般了",
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    {
      "start": 468.64,
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      "text": "好 所以一边我们现在看起来",
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      "start": 470.82,
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      "text": "这个日本现在被市场预估",
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    {
      "start": 472.88,
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      "text": "有七成的可能",
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    {
      "start": 474.02,
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      "text": "接下来就可能升息",
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    {
      "start": 475.4,
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      "text": "来一方面也解决现在",
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    {
      "start": 477.52,
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      "text": "美日之间很严重的",
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    {
      "start": 479.1,
      "end": 480.0,
      "text": "美日利差的问题",
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      "start": 480.0,
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      "text": "但是現在有一個問題是說,你一直升息一直升息,到底升得夠不夠呢?",
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      "start": 484.0,
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      "text": "因為這個美日利差的問題始終就會長期的存在。",
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      "start": 487.0,
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      "text": "那對於日本來說也是一個致命的陷阱。",
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      "start": 490.0,
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      "text": "再來就是三大痛苦會在升息之後立即引爆。",
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      "start": 493.0,
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      "text": "包括了大使剛剛幫我們特別提到的",
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      "text": "就是日本政府自己的GDP的部分",
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      "start": 498.24,
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      "text": "尤其是日債現在已經超過GDP的260%",
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      "start": 501.6,
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      "text": "這是對於日本政府自己的衝擊",
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    {
      "start": 504.44,
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      "text": "對於日本的企業的衝擊",
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      "start": 505.84,
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      "text": "包括了剛剛提到的25萬家的殭屍企業",
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    {
      "start": 508.94,
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      "text": "恐怕因為無法支付利息",
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      "start": 510.46,
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      "text": "他們有可能引爆的是倒閉潮",
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      "text": "再來就是日本有非常多人在背房貸",
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      "start": 515.18,
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      "text": "接下來這個房貸族也會被夾殺",
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      "start": 517.6,
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      "text": "伴隨著包括現在日本面對的是食品",
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      "start": 520.5,
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      "text": "電費 汽油全部都在漲",
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      "start": 523.0,
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      "text": "那对于老百姓来说",
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      "start": 524.5,
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      "text": "可能压力又会更大了",
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    {
      "start": 525.8,
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      "text": "这个会是致命的毒药吗",
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    {
      "start": 527.62,
      "end": 530.04,
      "text": "贝森特给的这一批帖子",
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    {
      "start": 530.04,
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      "text": "上次哥怎么看",
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    {
      "start": 530.92,
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      "text": "好 这次呢",
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      "start": 532.34,
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      "text": "我们看到这个贝森特",
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      "start": 533.46,
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      "text": "直接点名日本",
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      "start": 534.84,
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      "text": "你要升息",
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      "text": "我要知道其实过去",
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      "start": 537.4,
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      "text": "过去其他的国家",
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    {
      "start": 539.0,
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      "text": "对于另外的国家",
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      "start": 541.04,
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      "text": "你这个干预人家的会议",
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    {
      "start": 542.92,
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      "text": "这件事情",
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      "start": 543.48,
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      "text": "你公开讲已经很夸张了",
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      "text": "而且你提出干预的方法",
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      "text": "其实这个日币的部分",
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      "text": "升息有很多方法",
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      "text": "他直接点名",
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      "text": "升息 還不是別的",
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      "text": "所以說我剛剛大使講得非常清楚",
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      "start": 557.0,
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      "text": "他其實在意的沒有別的",
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      "text": "就是說你不能抛售美債",
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    {
      "start": 559.94,
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      "text": "維陽貴在我的節目當中",
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      "start": 561.52,
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      "text": "在節目當中我曾經有說過",
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      "text": "其實美債為什麼在手上",
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      "text": "首先你要干預匯率",
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    {
      "start": 566.92,
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      "text": "日幣這件事情",
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    {
      "start": 567.88,
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      "text": "其實在早前 前兩年這兩波當中",
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      "text": "日本已經拿出超過一兆美元",
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    {
      "start": 573.32,
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      "text": "超過超過",
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      "start": 574.24,
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      "text": "一兆美元來干預日幣了",
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    {
      "start": 577.0,
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      "text": "干預這個美元的負責狀況",
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      "start": 578.48,
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      "text": "可是沒有用",
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      "text": "其實都被稀釋掉了",
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      "text": "所以通常汇率的干预是透过美元",
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    {
      "start": 583.24,
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      "text": "但是任何一个外国政府",
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      "text": "你不可能手上有一大堆的美元在手上",
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      "start": 587.86,
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      "text": "不可能",
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      "start": 588.28,
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      "text": "所以你一定有美债",
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      "text": "那你美债主要是因为在全世界当中",
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    {
      "start": 592.06,
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      "text": "你说卖就卖",
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    {
      "start": 593.18,
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      "text": "它的流通性的变通性",
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      "start": 594.9,
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      "text": "马上可以变成美元",
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    {
      "start": 596.22,
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      "text": "可是他被Sentate告诉你",
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      "text": "它的底线就是你不能卖美债",
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      "start": 599.24,
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      "text": "因为美债不能对美国本身的",
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      "start": 601.16,
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      "text": "这个本身的包括他自己美债本身",
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    {
      "start": 604.16,
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      "text": "以及国际的发生的震动太大",
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      "start": 606.2,
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      "text": "但他还是丢出来说",
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      "start": 607.6,
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      "text": "其实有关于说你一定要升息",
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      "start": 609.6,
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      "text": "其实众所皆知",
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      "start": 610.74,
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      "text": "日本央行本来就预计在9月",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09205479196982809,
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    {
      "start": 613.14,
      "end": 615.3,
      "text": "市场上都认为9月它该升息了",
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    {
      "start": 615.3,
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      "text": "所以它不是一个意外",
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    {
      "start": 616.42,
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      "text": "所以现在其实贝森特丢出来的部分",
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    {
      "start": 619.06,
      "end": 622.34,
      "text": "只是让这个东西似乎更鲜明 更直接",
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    {
      "start": 622.34,
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      "text": "就你不要拖到9月底",
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    {
      "start": 623.82,
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      "text": "9月赶快升吧",
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    {
      "start": 624.98,
      "end": 626.64,
      "text": "因为现在其实日币的影响",
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    {
      "start": 626.64,
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      "text": "已经不只是日币 日本本身",
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    {
      "start": 628.66,
      "end": 630.16,
      "text": "它影响到亚洲货币",
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    {
      "start": 630.16,
      "end": 632.12,
      "text": "韩元跟东南亚的很多货币",
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    {
      "start": 632.12,
      "end": 633.66,
      "text": "都连带的贬值",
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    {
      "start": 633.66,
      "end": 635.8,
      "text": "卡在那里 其实大家都受影响",
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    {
      "start": 635.8,
      "end": 637.42,
      "text": "所以国际性的货币",
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    {
      "start": 637.42,
      "end": 638.86,
      "text": "如果对美元贬值",
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    {
      "start": 638.86,
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      "text": "其实是也是让美国感觉比较失控的",
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    {
      "start": 642.14,
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      "text": "而且我们都知道",
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      "text": "日本本身的它的这个利差",
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    {
      "start": 644.96,
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      "text": "还是看得出来",
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    {
      "start": 646.8,
      "end": 648.02,
      "text": "它的这个贬值的话",
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    {
      "start": 648.02,
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      "text": "大家都拿日本来赚钱",
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    {
      "start": 649.36,
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      "text": "所以整件事情其实是表面上",
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    {
      "start": 651.98,
      "end": 653.64,
      "text": "就是告诉你说有方法",
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    {
      "start": 653.64,
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      "text": "你就是生喜罢",
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    {
      "start": 654.92,
      "end": 656.1,
      "text": "然而其实你说",
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    {
      "start": 656.1,
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      "text": "贝森特就只是表面上没有",
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    {
      "start": 657.64,
      "end": 659.76,
      "text": "其实贝森特其实还需要潜在的意思",
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    {
      "start": 659.76,
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      "text": "什么意思呢",
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    {
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      "text": "首先我觉得贝森特认为",
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    {
      "start": 662.46,
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      "text": "过去长久以来",
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    {
      "start": 663.52,
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      "text": "包括现在高市早苗",
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    {
      "start": 664.7,
      "end": 667.22,
      "text": "尊奉的安倍经济学",
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    {
      "start": 667.22,
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      "text": "已经告一段落了",
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    {
      "start": 668.74,
      "end": 670.98,
      "text": "因為過去安倍經濟學就是貨幣寬鬆",
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    {
      "start": 670.98,
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      "text": "日幣當中貶值寬鬆",
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    {
      "start": 672.58,
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      "text": "所以你刺激整個經濟",
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    {
      "start": 674.5,
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      "text": "但是這麼多年下來",
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    {
      "start": 675.78,
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      "text": "你結果你在貶成這個失控的狀況",
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    {
      "start": 678.5,
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      "text": "你應該要結束了",
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    {
      "start": 679.78,
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      "text": "而且背後表示說日本有兩個東西",
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    {
      "start": 681.7,
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      "text": "第一個 你的貨幣政策",
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    {
      "start": 683.54,
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      "text": "到你的日本央行",
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    {
      "start": 684.82,
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      "text": "看著它這樣貶成一塌糊塗",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.4358581124372947e-11,
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    {
      "start": 686.58,
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      "text": "你到底貨幣是政策什麼",
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    {
      "start": 687.86,
      "end": 689.3,
      "text": "怎麼會到現在失控呢",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 689.3,
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      "text": "貨幣政策背後就是產業政策",
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    {
      "start": 691.46,
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      "text": "你日本產業政策當中始終是中出口",
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    {
      "start": 694.26,
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      "text": "因為你中汽車業",
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    {
      "start": 695.7,
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      "text": "製造業你只要貶值",
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    {
      "start": 697.14,
      "end": 698.66,
      "text": "在國際上賺很多錢",
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    {
      "start": 698.66,
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      "text": "但你國內的東西雖然升值你覺得你可控",
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    {
      "start": 701.42,
      "end": 702.9,
      "text": "那到底你的產業政策是什麼",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 702.9,
      "end": 704.66,
      "text": "你不能就這樣放任過去",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 704.66,
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      "text": "總之日本政府",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 705.54,
      "end": 706.54,
      "text": "我覺得倍生的起來就是",
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    {
      "start": 706.54,
      "end": 708.98,
      "text": "日本政府你要把所有政策弄清楚",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 708.98,
      "end": 710.02,
      "text": "不能只認令",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4469914040114613
    },
    {
      "start": 710.02,
      "end": 711.82,
      "text": "然後包括現在日元貶值的時候",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 711.82,
      "end": 713.54,
      "text": "你就一直到處在挪錢",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 713.54,
      "end": 715.62,
      "text": "拿美元再拿美債",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 715.62,
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      "text": "所以我覺得就這樣講",
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 716.66,
      "end": 719.78,
      "text": "日本本身基本上是非常非常兩難的",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
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    {
      "start": 719.78,
      "end": 721.02,
      "text": "因為債務高的時候",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
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    {
      "start": 721.02,
      "end": 722.82,
      "text": "他們付出太大的利息",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4469914040114613
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    {
      "start": 722.82,
      "end": 725.14,
      "text": "日本國債現在已經超過200%的",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4469914040114613
    },
    {
      "start": 725.14,
      "end": 726.98,
      "text": "本身的這個債務的部分狀況",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2350562546781437,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.581971524946326e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4469914040114613
    },
    {
      "start": 726.98,
      "end": 730.28,
      "text": "但是如果你說升值經濟真的是很難刺激了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896
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    {
      "start": 730.28,
      "end": 731.78,
      "text": "你說貝森特自己還不是一樣",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 731.78,
      "end": 734.78,
      "text": "他希望日本升值解決問題",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896
    },
    {
      "start": 734.78,
      "end": 736.88,
      "text": "可是日本日元升值的時候",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896
    },
    {
      "start": 736.88,
      "end": 739.88,
      "text": "華爾街股市的日本的錢全部都回去",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 739.88,
      "end": 741.78,
      "text": "你說對美股沒有震動嗎",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 741.78,
      "end": 743.08,
      "text": "大家都矛盾",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 743.08,
      "end": 745.58,
      "text": "好 那另外一方面我們也持續看到說",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896
    },
    {
      "start": 745.58,
      "end": 748.08,
      "text": "一方面是貝森特要求的這個事情",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 748.08,
      "end": 750.08,
      "text": "現在日本可能9月份升息",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 750.08,
      "end": 753.68,
      "text": "但是現在持續的就是受到弱勢日元的影響",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17222388474257677,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.332998551290988e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896
    },
    {
      "start": 753.68,
      "end": 757.6,
      "text": "让日本的小老百姓的生活越来越辛苦了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 757.6,
      "end": 760.76,
      "text": "而且现在已经有实际的数字去证实说",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 760.76,
      "end": 762.92,
      "text": "在今年尤其是9月份",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 762.92,
      "end": 765.38,
      "text": "甚至一整年这个食品跟饮料的价格",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 765.38,
      "end": 766.3,
      "text": "真的是狂飙",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 766.3,
      "end": 768.12,
      "text": "我们就看9月份就好了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 768.12,
      "end": 771.36,
      "text": "这一次确定涨价会有195家的",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 771.36,
      "end": 772.86,
      "text": "主要食品跟饮料业者",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 772.86,
      "end": 775.46,
      "text": "涨价项目高达4900项",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 775.46,
      "end": 777.46,
      "text": "是去年同期的三倍",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 777.46,
      "end": 779.78,
      "text": "如果是说我们从今年一整年",
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 779.78,
      "end": 780.84,
      "text": "到现在来看的话",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 780.84,
      "end": 782.96,
      "text": "包括了涨价的食品跟饮料",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07227613214860883,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.46308121068617e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.38
    },
    {
      "start": 782.96,
      "end": 785.4,
      "text": "达到了19000多个项目",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.31875
    },
    {
      "start": 785.4,
      "end": 787.9,
      "text": "主要的原因就是我们刚刚提到的",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 787.9,
      "end": 789.18,
      "text": "第一个是日元皮卵",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 789.18,
      "end": 790.98,
      "text": "第二个是石油价格飙涨",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.31875
    },
    {
      "start": 790.98,
      "end": 793.92,
      "text": "当然会影响到包括整体在日本的运输成本",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 793.92,
      "end": 795.9,
      "text": "塑胶袋这些都会变贵",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.31875
    },
    {
      "start": 795.9,
      "end": 798.26,
      "text": "再来就是有关于物流成本",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 798.26,
      "end": 801.7,
      "text": "跟人力燃料成本全部都在增加",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.31875
    },
    {
      "start": 801.7,
      "end": 804.58,
      "text": "也让这个超市的标价也一起暴涨",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.31875
    },
    {
      "start": 804.58,
      "end": 806.92,
      "text": "那么有一位网猴他就证实说",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 806.92,
      "end": 809.1,
      "text": "他去美国在当地的机场",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 809.1,
      "end": 812.02,
      "text": "当时他只是拿了架上的一罐水",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08114942095496437,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7788114731187576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.31875
    },
    {
      "start": 812.02,
      "end": 813.04,
      "text": "跟一包饼干",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
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    {
      "start": 813.04,
      "end": 814.22,
      "text": "结果他就吓到了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 814.22,
      "end": 815.88,
      "text": "原来这个弱势的日元",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 815.88,
      "end": 817.3,
      "text": "在国外这么的难用",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 817.3,
      "end": 819.22,
      "text": "因为他当时买的这个水",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 819.22,
      "end": 821.34,
      "text": "跟饼干的价格高达了15美元",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 821.34,
      "end": 823.42,
      "text": "换算就要2400日元",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 823.42,
      "end": 824.34,
      "text": "他感叹说",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 824.34,
      "end": 826.4,
      "text": "现在真的是鬼通膨",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 826.4,
      "end": 827.84,
      "text": "日元结束了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 827.84,
      "end": 829.44,
      "text": "这是来自于这网红的说法",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 829.44,
      "end": 831.36,
      "text": "同时也反映了很多日本民间",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 831.36,
      "end": 832.72,
      "text": "小老百姓的心声",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 832.72,
      "end": 833.62,
      "text": "将军怎么看",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 833.62,
      "end": 835.96,
      "text": "我认为日本它出两个问题",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 835.96,
      "end": 837.84,
      "text": "第一个它货币政策出了问题",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 837.84,
      "end": 839.86,
      "text": "经济政策也出了问题",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 839.86,
      "end": 841.28,
      "text": "它这个经济政策",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09650224478133602,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2852381445503944e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4056603773584906
    },
    {
      "start": 841.28,
      "end": 842.04,
      "text": "我们可以看出来",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 842.04,
      "end": 842.9,
      "text": "这两个加在一起",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 842.9,
      "end": 844.54,
      "text": "就是双低跟双高",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 844.54,
      "end": 846.52,
      "text": "哪个双低呢",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 846.52,
      "end": 849.28,
      "text": "它的经济成长率低",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 849.28,
      "end": 852.18,
      "text": "今年2026年经济成长率就1.1%",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 852.18,
      "end": 853.82,
      "text": "就是一经济成长率",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 853.82,
      "end": 855.32,
      "text": "你看它这么低的经济成长率",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1707326352239369,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
    },
    {
      "start": 855.32,
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      "text": "那你的所得的增加相当有限",
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
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    {
      "start": 858.1,
      "end": 859.26,
      "text": "每个人都要过苦日子",
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    {
      "start": 859.26,
      "end": 860.38,
      "text": "因为只成长1%",
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    {
      "start": 860.38,
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      "text": "另外一低呢",
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    {
      "start": 862.52,
      "end": 863.54,
      "text": "就是我们讲利率",
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    {
      "start": 863.54,
      "end": 865.2,
      "text": "现在日币的利率就1%",
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.0424242986049066e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4166666666666667
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    {
      "start": 865.2,
      "end": 866.88,
      "text": "那我干嘛要存钱",
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    {
      "start": 866.88,
      "end": 868.3,
      "text": "我存美金好了",
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    {
      "start": 868.3,
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      "text": "美金还3.5%",
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    {
      "start": 869.4,
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      "text": "我这边1%",
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    {
      "start": 871.5,
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      "text": "我去抛售日年买美金",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17112360555658895,
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    {
      "start": 873.52,
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      "text": "我每一个月赚3.5%",
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    {
      "start": 875.16,
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      "text": "3.5%减这个1%",
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    {
      "start": 876.5,
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      "text": "我还赚2.5%",
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    {
      "start": 877.68,
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      "text": "我根本都不要去做事",
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    {
      "start": 879.04,
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      "text": "我去借钱好了",
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    {
      "start": 880.3,
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      "text": "就存过去",
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      "start": 881.0,
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      "text": "1%而已",
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    {
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      "text": "我就存3.5%",
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    {
      "start": 883.76,
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      "text": "不是就2.5%",
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    {
      "start": 885.54,
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      "text": "利率那么低",
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    {
      "start": 886.3,
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      "text": "那大家你就知道",
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    {
      "start": 888.0,
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      "text": "钱就在扁",
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    {
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      "text": "你经济成长率低",
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      "text": "你没办法",
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      "text": "没有动能",
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      "start": 892.22,
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      "text": "那你哪个是双高呢",
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      "start": 894.18,
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      "text": "第一个我认为通货膨胀高",
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      "text": "你通货膨胀",
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    {
      "start": 897.0,
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      "text": "今年2020年",
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    {
      "start": 898.08,
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      "text": "当然还在走",
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    {
      "start": 899.14,
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      "text": "已经到达目前是通货膨胀1.9%",
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      "text": "你经济成长率才1.1",
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      "start": 905.22,
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      "text": "我现在通货膨胀1.9",
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    {
      "start": 906.64,
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      "text": "换句话你物价越来越高",
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    {
      "start": 908.32,
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      "text": "你物价100块的话",
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    {
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      "text": "你每个增加的就将近就1.9",
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    {
      "start": 913.54,
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      "text": "那就是双高",
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    {
      "start": 914.68,
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      "text": "通货膨胀高",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20760631561279297,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.4557089001175925e-11,
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    {
      "start": 915.34,
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      "text": "通货膨胀压过经济成长率",
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    {
      "start": 917.82,
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      "text": "你经济成长通货膨胀吃光光",
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      "start": 919.8,
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      "text": "你怎么办",
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    {
      "start": 920.96,
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      "text": "对不对",
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    {
      "start": 921.86,
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      "text": "那再来就是我们讲的利差大",
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    {
      "start": 923.62,
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      "text": "你利差大",
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    {
      "start": 924.98,
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      "text": "大家就要走货币投资",
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    {
      "start": 927.12,
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      "text": "投机",
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    {
      "start": 928.02,
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      "text": "货币投机 利差大",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
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    {
      "start": 929.58,
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      "text": "我刚讲过",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 930.12,
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      "text": "这个美元是3.5%",
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    {
      "start": 932.74,
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      "text": "你只有一%",
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    {
      "start": 933.6,
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      "text": "那我就是做这个",
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    {
      "start": 934.64,
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      "text": "大家做投机",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
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    {
      "start": 935.82,
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      "text": "货币投机",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
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    {
      "start": 936.64,
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      "text": "那货币投机",
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    {
      "start": 938.06,
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      "text": "金融投机",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
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    {
      "start": 938.48,
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      "text": "你经济没有成长",
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    {
      "start": 939.36,
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      "text": "所以出了这个问题",
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    {
      "start": 940.78,
      "end": 941.36,
      "text": "出来之变",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 941.36,
      "end": 942.72,
      "text": "货币真的跟经济出了问题",
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    {
      "start": 942.72,
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      "text": "那还有一个",
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    {
      "start": 943.66,
      "end": 944.42,
      "text": "不要忘了",
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    {
      "start": 944.42,
      "end": 945.2,
      "text": "国际大环境",
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    {
      "start": 945.2,
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      "text": "国际大环境",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
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    {
      "start": 945.42,
      "end": 946.64,
      "text": "伊朗战争",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 946.64,
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      "text": "可能通膨让你受不了",
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    {
      "start": 947.94,
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      "text": "为什么",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 948.12,
      "end": 949.76,
      "text": "因为日本都在进口石油",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
    },
    {
      "start": 949.76,
      "end": 950.8,
      "text": "那你就是石油",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
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    {
      "start": 950.8,
      "end": 951.74,
      "text": "天然气都在涨价",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
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    {
      "start": 951.74,
      "end": 953.26,
      "text": "你日本要想到",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
    },
    {
      "start": 953.26,
      "end": 954.88,
      "text": "你这个状况要持续",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
    },
    {
      "start": 954.88,
      "end": 955.48,
      "text": "第二个",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
    },
    {
      "start": 955.48,
      "end": 956.24,
      "text": "美国保护主义",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19576363457573784,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.374588893572227e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4821428571428572
    },
    {
      "start": 956.24,
      "end": 957.88,
      "text": "美國對日本一直瞌睡啊",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.5051425153558905,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5873927172727065e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 0.7317073170731707
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    {
      "start": 958.098,
      "end": 960.698,
      "text": "你保護主義你日本還東西想賣到美國去嗎?",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2822721422333078,
      "no_speech_prob": 8.964986739079528e-12,
      "compression_ratio": 1.402116402116402
    },
    {
      "start": 960.698,
      "end": 964.098,
      "text": "從1985年9月22號的廣場協議到現在為止。",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2822721422333078,
      "no_speech_prob": 8.964986739079528e-12,
      "compression_ratio": 1.402116402116402
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    {
      "start": 964.098,
      "end": 968.298,
      "text": "都一直限制你啊。他就拿這個小岩高牆關稅幫你擋住。",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2822721422333078,
      "no_speech_prob": 8.964986739079528e-12,
      "compression_ratio": 1.402116402116402
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    {
      "start": 968.298,
      "end": 971.798,
      "text": "所以日本想要再賣美國來賺錢,困難度也是增加。",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2822721422333078,
      "no_speech_prob": 8.964986739079528e-12,
      "compression_ratio": 1.402116402116402
    },
    {
      "start": 971.798,
      "end": 973.998,
      "text": "最后一个就是讲的中国大陆",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
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    {
      "start": 973.998,
      "end": 975.238,
      "text": "因为他们两个关系搞不好",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
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    {
      "start": 975.238,
      "end": 976.298,
      "text": "中国大陆一直限制",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
    },
    {
      "start": 976.298,
      "end": 977.318,
      "text": "稀土不卖给你",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
    },
    {
      "start": 977.318,
      "end": 979.098,
      "text": "我看你能够做多少东西",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
    },
    {
      "start": 979.098,
      "end": 979.818,
      "text": "对不对",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
    },
    {
      "start": 979.818,
      "end": 980.818,
      "text": "然后电动车我一直",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6970287675110995e-10,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
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    {
      "start": 980.818,
      "end": 983.578,
      "text": "中国大陆电动车一直攻占",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.20492393933041558,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3975903614457832
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    {
      "start": 983.578,
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      "text": "这些其他国家市场",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 985.038,
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      "text": "压缩了日本的汽车工业",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 986.758,
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      "text": "所以你看看",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 988.118,
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      "text": "那像日本面临这些种种的因素",
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    {
      "start": 990.558,
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      "text": "他当然小老百姓也哭呆了乐趣",
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      "start": 992.898,
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      "text": "那我认为因为日本的GDP",
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    {
      "start": 994.778,
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      "text": "是38000块美金",
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    {
      "start": 996.558,
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      "text": "每一个人",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 997.638,
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      "text": "所以我认为他有忍受度",
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    {
      "start": 1000.198,
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      "text": "但是要过苦日子",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1001.638,
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      "text": "今天有关于这场的美债美元危机",
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    {
      "start": 1004.258,
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      "text": "我们要来看到是美国的公债",
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    {
      "start": 1006.478,
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      "text": "正式的突破了40兆美元大关了",
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    {
      "start": 1012.398,
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      "text": "而且现在看到殖利率的部分",
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    {
      "start": 1014.218,
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      "text": "冲破了5.3%",
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    },
    {
      "start": 1016.058,
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      "text": "现在贝森特说他要扩大回购",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.1401784858210426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1018.458,
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      "text": "还被骂是在玩火",
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    {
      "start": 1020.118,
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      "text": "会不会演变成下一个",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.08162991100589172,
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    {
      "start": 1021.758,
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      "text": "来自专家说的美元危机呢",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.08162991100589172,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.1401784858210426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1023.838,
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      "text": "刚刚我们提到了有关于日本的部分",
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    {
      "start": 1026.398,
      "end": 1028.478,
      "text": "过去在广场协议之后",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1028.478,
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      "text": "日本失落了20年",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.1401784858210426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1029.818,
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      "text": "现在日本会不会为了救美国",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
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    {
      "start": 1031.978,
      "end": 1033.778,
      "text": "再失落另外的20年",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
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    {
      "start": 1033.778,
      "end": 1035.698,
      "text": "最后第三个火线话题",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
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    {
      "start": 1035.698,
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      "text": "我们会看到有关于美国老百姓",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
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    {
      "start": 1037.878,
      "end": 1040.638,
      "text": "这场危机烧到了美国老百姓去了",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
    },
    {
      "start": 1040.638,
      "end": 1042.198,
      "text": "房贷利率跟沃尔玛",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1042.198,
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      "text": "都已经出现了一些问题",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1044.178,
      "end": 1047.338,
      "text": "尤其是房贷现在来到了一个新高数字",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
    },
    {
      "start": 1047.338,
      "end": 1051.518,
      "text": "川普会不会在这种选举的各种压力下",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1051.518,
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      "text": "现在看到的这些压力成为他的经济炸弹呢",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
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    {
      "start": 1054.638,
      "end": 1055.458,
      "text": "今天就这些议题",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
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    {
      "start": 1055.458,
      "end": 1057.938,
      "text": "我们会请来宾来深度剖析",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07107757386707124,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6695441903968877e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4214046822742474
    },
    {
      "start": 1057.938,
      "end": 1059.958,
      "text": "好 来看到的是最新消息",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1059.958,
      "end": 1061.978,
      "text": "美债破了40兆之后",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1061.978,
      "end": 1065.458,
      "text": "包括了7月份单月的预算赤字",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1065.458,
      "end": 1067.498,
      "text": "也突破了4000多亿美元",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1067.498,
      "end": 1068.878,
      "text": "这个数字什么意思",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1068.878,
      "end": 1073.178,
      "text": "其实已经是5年来最高的单月记录了",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1073.178,
      "end": 1075.078,
      "text": "而目前看到的赤字缺口",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08360138917580628,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1894532234157928e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333
    },
    {
      "start": 1075.078,
      "end": 1078.858,
      "text": "已经来到了1.8兆美元的数字",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "text": "贝森特可及了",
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      "text": "现在他也出来放话了",
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      "text": "他先说认为赤字极有可能",
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      "text": "现在已经见顶了",
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      "text": "要大家不要过度的担心",
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      "text": "或过度的解读",
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      "text": "他说现在美国政府",
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      "text": "有想出一些方法来救经济",
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      "text": "这经济的救法",
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      "text": "有三个面向来看到",
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      "text": "他第一个说",
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      "text": "首先他们会靠经济的成长",
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      "text": "关税更多的支出",
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      "text": "还有削减政府支出",
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      "start": 1101.938,
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      "text": "减税等等",
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    {
      "start": 1103.018,
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      "text": "把美国的债务从泥澳里面拉出来",
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      "text": "另外他也说了",
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      "text": "要扩大长天期美债的回购",
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    {
      "start": 1109.018,
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      "text": "从20亿美元一口气提高到",
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    {
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      "text": "40亿美元来支撑",
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    {
      "start": 1113.638,
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      "text": "长债的价格来压低美债的殖利率",
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    {
      "start": 1117.178,
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      "text": "真的有效吗",
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      "text": "我们最新看到事实上",
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    {
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      "text": "消息就是市场完全不买单",
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      "text": "来看到最新美国的公债殖利率",
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      "text": "出现现在是公债的一个抛售潮",
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    {
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      "text": "所以30年级的国债殖利率",
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    {
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      "text": "已经冲破了5%",
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      "text": "一度是接近了5.3%的历史新高档",
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      "text": "恐怕接下来专家说的",
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      "text": "就会引爆下一波是美元的信用危机",
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      "text": "会不会出现货币贬值呢",
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      "text": "再来看到几个专家怎么做的分析",
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      "text": "桥水基金创办人说",
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      "text": "最快有可能在这种赤字问题之下",
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      "text": "美债一年内甚至最晚五年内",
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      "text": "就会立刻引爆债务的危机",
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      "text": "再来看到也有人说",
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    {
      "start": 1157.218,
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      "text": "即使现在美债在川普政府",
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    {
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      "text": "要求国内金融机构购买之下",
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      "text": "但是四分之一的美债",
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      "text": "还是海外的买家",
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      "text": "他说美国现在在缺乏信用的",
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    {
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      "text": "一个危机之下",
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    {
      "start": 1169.558,
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      "text": "恐怕找不到买家",
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    {
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      "text": "都非常不利美债的一个发展",
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    {
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      "text": "那么包括了这个会市的部分",
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      "text": "美元我们刚刚说了",
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    {
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      "text": "恐怕引爆美元的危机",
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      "text": "是因为也有一个消息支撑",
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    {
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      "text": "上个礼拜五",
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    {
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      "text": "纽约会市对美元的主要货币",
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    {
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      "text": "下跌了0.1%",
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    {
      "start": 1188.298,
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      "text": "来到98",
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    {
      "start": 1189.358,
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      "text": "已经是三个月来的一个低点了",
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      "text": "所以今天节目一开始",
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    {
      "start": 1194.778,
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      "text": "先请教委员怎么看",
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      "text": "贝森特说的",
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    {
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      "text": "赤字已经见顶了",
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      "text": "接下来他有用一些经济上面的成长",
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    {
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      "text": "关税削减支出",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1203.178,
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      "text": "要来救美债",
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    {
      "start": 1204.198,
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      "text": "注意了这个30年期的美债殖利率",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.3361998099935555e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1206.878,
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      "text": "已经冲破了5.3%",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09022420323537496,
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    {
      "start": 1208.838,
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      "text": "是不是如市场所说的",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1210.658,
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      "text": "现在贝森特是在玩火呢",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1212.698,
      "end": 1216.158,
      "text": "进一步会不会从美债引爆美元危机",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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    {
      "start": 1216.158,
      "end": 1216.918,
      "text": "委员怎么看",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09022420323537496,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.3361998099935555e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1216.918,
      "end": 1219.418,
      "text": "贝森特根本就是在鬼扯",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1219.418,
      "end": 1222.238,
      "text": "那么当然你说要鬼扯也不是不行",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.3361998099935555e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1222.238,
      "end": 1225.578,
      "text": "但是总是要讲的稍微专业跟漂亮一点",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1225.578,
      "end": 1227.198,
      "text": "你才能够让市场买单",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1227.198,
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      "text": "但是现在市场又不笨",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1229.138,
      "end": 1231.878,
      "text": "贝森特说现在的赤字已经见顶了",
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    {
      "start": 1231.878,
      "end": 1233.318,
      "text": "各位知道現在赤字缺口",
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    {
      "start": 1233.318,
      "end": 1235.918,
      "text": "剛才這個施明告訴大家已經1.8兆了",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1235.918,
      "end": 1237.318,
      "text": "40兆 1.8兆",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.389347830173861e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1237.318,
      "end": 1239.518,
      "text": "照這個持續規模下去的話",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17446676890055338,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.389347830173861e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1239.518,
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      "text": "大概再過一年就要快準備要逼近44兆 45兆了",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17446676890055338,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.389347830173861e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1243.918,
      "end": 1248.558,
      "text": "那麼這樣快速膨脹這個政府財政赤字的速度",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.389347830173861e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1248.558,
      "end": 1250.998,
      "text": "這是前所未有的事情",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.17446676890055338,
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    {
      "start": 1250.998,
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      "text": "那麼你說當然這個貝斯特可以畫一個大餅",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1253.558,
      "end": 1255.158,
      "text": "他說要經濟成長",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1255.158,
      "end": 1258.398,
      "text": "美國的經濟成長不會一下變成20%",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1258.398,
      "end": 1261.478,
      "text": "所以他的經濟成長再高也就是多一兩個百分點",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1261.478,
      "end": 1264.698,
      "text": "你说靠经济成长就可以把这个债务弥补起来吗",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09850356423643214,
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    {
      "start": 1264.698,
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      "text": "太难了",
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    {
      "start": 1265.538,
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      "text": "关税收入",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09850356423643214,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0646089832497836e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1266.738,
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      "text": "到现在为止美国的关税收进来了多少",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.0646089832497836e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1269.778,
      "end": 1271.318,
      "text": "到底有没有实质的帮助",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09850356423643214,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.0646089832497836e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1271.318,
      "end": 1272.818,
      "text": "制造业到底有没有回流",
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    {
      "start": 1272.818,
      "end": 1273.958,
      "text": "大家都心知肚明",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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    {
      "start": 1273.958,
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      "text": "就是美国在干这件对等关税的事情",
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    {
      "start": 1277.438,
      "end": 1281.718,
      "text": "是一件完全是竹篮打水一场空的一个行动",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.0646089832497836e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1281.718,
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      "text": "所以你说靠关税收入能够收进多少钱",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1284.898,
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      "text": "这又是另外一个问号",
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    {
      "start": 1286.298,
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      "text": "那你还别讲消减支出",
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    {
      "start": 1288.198,
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      "text": "现在还在打仗了",
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    {
      "start": 1289.338,
      "end": 1291.418,
      "text": "接下来美国还要去补充它",
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    {
      "start": 1291.418,
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      "text": "所有短缺的军事装备",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07029276789881247,
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    {
      "start": 1293.958,
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      "text": "那也是一笔钱",
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    {
      "start": 1295.058,
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      "text": "那不是天上掉下来的",
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    {
      "start": 1296.778,
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      "text": "所以这些钱难道不要花吗",
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    {
      "start": 1298.798,
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      "text": "所以美国跟中国大陆最大的差别是什么",
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    {
      "start": 1301.558,
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      "text": "中国大陆举债在做基础建设",
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    {
      "start": 1304.218,
      "end": 1305.178,
      "text": "改善人民生活",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.2180101505453464e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1305.178,
      "end": 1308.498,
      "text": "美国举债是买炸弹去打仗用的",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07029276789881247,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2180101505453464e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1308.498,
      "end": 1309.998,
      "text": "所以这是两个国家",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1309.998,
      "end": 1312.878,
      "text": "为什么在这几年的发展过程当中",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.2180101505453464e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1312.878,
      "end": 1315.138,
      "text": "会有这么大的一个落差的",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.2180101505453464e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1315.138,
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      "text": "一个最主要的原因",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.2180101505453464e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4304207119741101
    },
    {
      "start": 1316.218,
      "end": 1318.658,
      "text": "好 现在美债的状况的确很糟",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.2180101505453464e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1318.658,
      "end": 1320.678,
      "text": "殖利率一直不断的往上攀升",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
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    {
      "start": 1320.678,
      "end": 1323.038,
      "text": "我们看到的几个数据都非常的不好",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
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    {
      "start": 1323.038,
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      "text": "刚才施敏说",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
    },
    {
      "start": 1324.698,
      "end": 1328.318,
      "text": "这个30年期长天期的美债的殖利率",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
    },
    {
      "start": 1328.318,
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      "text": "飙到了5.33以上了",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1330.218,
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      "text": "我看到最高到5.34",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
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    {
      "start": 1331.958,
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      "text": "现在稍微回挡起来",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
    },
    {
      "start": 1333.838,
      "end": 1336.358,
      "text": "但是也在5.25 5.27左右",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1336.358,
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      "text": "所以它其实这个殖利率实在太高了",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3817567567567568
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    {
      "start": 1339.278,
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      "text": "那殖利率高代表什么",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1341.038,
      "end": 1342.138,
      "text": "代表第一",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1342.138,
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      "text": "美国要跟大家借钱",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11148863747006371,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1383336114001441e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1344.278,
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      "text": "它要付比较高的利息",
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    {
      "start": 1345.598,
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      "text": "那为什么要付比较高的利息呢",
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      "text": "因为大家都不想借钱给美国",
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      "text": "那大家对美国有债性的危机",
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      "text": "觉得你这个债务可能会违约",
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      "text": "本来就已经觉得你会违约了",
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      "text": "你川普还来补一枪",
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      "text": "说我要用美军来互盘",
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      "text": "那这代表什么你知道吗",
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      "text": "大家现在最担心美债的",
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      "text": "就是川普这一招",
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      "text": "川普去年就已经放话了",
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      "text": "说跟美国友好的国家",
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      "text": "这个30年的公债",
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      "text": "要不要延长到100年",
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      "text": "然后利息要不要打个折",
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      "text": "这摆明就是明抢了",
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      "text": "所以当川普讲了这个话之后",
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      "text": "市场就更恐慌了",
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      "text": "想说不得了了",
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      "text": "我借你30年期",
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      "text": "这个借给你美国这个钱",
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      "text": "然后呢",
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      "start": 1381.898,
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      "text": "搞不好一瞬之间",
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      "text": "你就来给我来个利息打折",
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      "text": "虽然你没有完全的债务违约",
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      "text": "但是这是另外一种形式的债务违约了",
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      "text": "所以因此30年期的公债在攀升",
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      "text": "就算了",
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      "text": "10年期公债也在攀升",
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      "text": "前两天我看到的数字是殖利率到了4.7",
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      "text": "大家预估到今年底要破5",
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    {
      "start": 1400.098,
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      "text": "各位",
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      "text": "10年期的美元的这个公债的殖利率",
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      "text": "要到破5了",
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      "text": "然后这是一个多么令人惊讶的事情",
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      "text": "过去十年期的职率率不会这么高",
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      "text": "为什么",
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      "text": "因为十年期算是短天期的",
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      "text": "虽然不是一年两年",
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      "text": "可是相对来说比较短",
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      "text": "就是美国跟你借钱借十年",
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      "text": "这十年它总不至于有什么太大的变动",
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      "text": "所以它不用付你太高的利息",
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      "text": "可是现在连十年的",
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      "text": "美国的公债利率都要到5%了",
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      "text": "这是一个很严重的问题",
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      "text": "关键在哪里",
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      "text": "债性问题",
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      "text": "大家就是怕你耍赖",
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      "text": "怕你债务违约",
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      "start": 1433.418,
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      "text": "然后第二个关键问题是什么呢",
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      "text": "供需失衡",
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      "text": "就是美国现在",
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      "text": "還是你乾脆去買Anthorpic",
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      "text": "所以在這種供需強烈失衡的情況之下",
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      "text": "日本又在盜美債",
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      "text": "英國在賣美債",
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      "text": "中國大陸也在避險賣美債",
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      "text": "大家都在賣",
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      "text": "市場上一手的美債",
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      "text": "大家知道當供需失衡的結果是什麼",
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      "text": "才能夠讓市場過度的供給的美債",
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      "text": "能夠平息下來",
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      "text": "所以你看到",
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    {
      "start": 1479.738,
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      "text": "這個貝森特講的那些話都是鬼扯",
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      "start": 1481.818,
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      "text": "他说他要回购美债",
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      "start": 1483.118,
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      "text": "你怎么回购美债",
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      "start": 1484.578,
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      "text": "美债你40亿的金额",
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    {
      "start": 1487.618,
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      "text": "就杯水车薪",
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      "text": "光日本卖美债去互盘日盈",
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      "start": 1493.158,
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      "text": "一个月丢出来的美债都不止40亿了",
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      "start": 1496.158,
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      "text": "你这40亿能够救得了谁",
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    {
      "start": 1498.158,
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      "text": "更蠢的一件事情是",
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    {
      "start": 1499.538,
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      "text": "背身上干的这件事情",
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    {
      "start": 1500.638,
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      "text": "会打乱了美国整个美元的体系",
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    {
      "start": 1503.878,
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      "text": "因为他等于是在跟联准会对干的了",
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      "start": 1506.938,
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      "text": "你回购美债",
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    {
      "start": 1508.178,
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      "text": "你就是要把美元丢到市场上来",
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    {
      "start": 1510.378,
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      "text": "所谓回购40亿",
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    {
      "start": 1511.378,
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      "text": "他就是拿40亿的美金去买美债",
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      "start": 1513.098,
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      "text": "市场上忽然间就多了40亿的美元",
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    {
      "start": 1515.398,
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      "text": "可是联组会准备要升息",
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    {
      "start": 1518.058,
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      "text": "准备要打压通膨",
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    {
      "start": 1519.158,
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      "text": "他要用升息的方式",
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      "text": "就是要把美元收回银行体系",
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      "start": 1522.438,
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      "text": "所以你今天是在跟美元系统对坐",
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    {
      "start": 1524.958,
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      "text": "在这种情况之下",
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    {
      "start": 1526.378,
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      "text": "你当然会让大家笑掉大门牙",
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    {
      "start": 1528.118,
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      "text": "好 那如果说我们看到贝森特",
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    {
      "start": 1530.658,
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      "text": "他现在做的这个回购",
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    {
      "start": 1531.978,
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      "text": "是一个杯水车型",
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      "start": 1533.238,
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      "text": "那是不是美国会不会找日本来帮忙呢",
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    {
      "start": 1536.498,
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      "text": "也就是说这个稳住日元",
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    {
      "start": 1539.018,
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      "text": "来避免美债持续的",
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      "text": "被日本给抛售下去",
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    {
      "start": 1541.858,
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      "text": "重点是这一次",
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      "text": "日本会再次成为",
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    {
      "start": 1544.378,
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      "text": "美国的牺牲品吗",
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    {
      "start": 1545.358,
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      "text": "因为我们知道",
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    {
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      "text": "先前的广场协议",
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    {
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      "text": "日本已经因此",
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    {
      "start": 1548.318,
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      "text": "因为这个日元的升值",
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    {
      "start": 1550.058,
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      "text": "最后付出了",
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    {
      "start": 1550.938,
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      "text": "失落20年的代价",
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      "start": 1552.118,
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      "text": "难道日本可能",
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    {
      "start": 1553.478,
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      "text": "再次的付出代价",
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    {
      "start": 1554.698,
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      "text": "再次失落另外一个20年吗",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1556.978,
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      "text": "那杨老师又怎么看",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1557.998,
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      "text": "当初广场协议的时候",
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    {
      "start": 1560.498,
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      "text": "其实是美国认为",
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    {
      "start": 1562.238,
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      "text": "美日之间的贸易力差太大",
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    {
      "start": 1564.318,
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      "text": "那关键因素",
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    {
      "start": 1565.978,
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      "text": "他认为日元应该",
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    {
      "start": 1568.318,
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      "text": "反映它正当的价值",
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    {
      "start": 1570.758,
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      "text": "所以它要求日元升值",
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    {
      "start": 1573.418,
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      "text": "其实同时它也要求",
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    {
      "start": 1575.178,
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      "text": "德国的马克升值",
      "chunk": 3,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12159816312118316,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.72957828614706e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1576.438,
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      "text": "这个答应之后",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1577.798,
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      "text": "倒不是单纯直接",
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    {
      "start": 1580.018,
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      "text": "就是因为签了广场协议",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12159816312118316,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.72957828614706e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1581.438,
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      "text": "马上就造成日元的整个问题",
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    {
      "start": 1585.018,
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      "text": "然后财政问题",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.72957828614706e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1586.038,
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      "text": "然后最后造成日本的不景气",
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    {
      "start": 1588.038,
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      "text": "其实我觉得当初日本的银行",
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    {
      "start": 1591.938,
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      "text": "尤其就是日本银行",
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    {
      "start": 1593.258,
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      "text": "它的中央银行叫日本银行",
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    {
      "start": 1595.278,
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      "text": "采取了这个极度的宽松政策",
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    {
      "start": 1599.438,
      "end": 1602.218,
      "text": "后来就造成整个泡沫",
      "chunk": 3,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.13948704302310944,
      "no_speech_prob": 9.056606159463243e-12,
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    {
      "start": 1602.218,
      "end": 1605.338,
      "text": "房地产 股市连续泡沫",
      "chunk": 3,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.13948704302310944,
      "no_speech_prob": 9.056606159463243e-12,
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    {
      "start": 1605.338,
      "end": 1607.658,
      "text": "然后呢就开到开始出现",
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    {
      "start": 1607.658,
      "end": 1611.138,
      "text": "那有人说叫做资产负债表的",
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    {
      "start": 1611.138,
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      "text": "这个就是说亏损",
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    {
      "start": 1613.398,
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      "text": "因此这个时候呢",
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    {
      "start": 1615.438,
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      "text": "预言造成的变化",
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    {
      "start": 1617.638,
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      "text": "长期的不景气",
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    {
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      "text": "那日本就用",
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    {
      "start": 1620.498,
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      "text": "就是公共支出的方式",
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    {
      "start": 1623.118,
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      "text": "来去希望能够增加刺激消费甚至通膨",
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      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.13337986348039013,
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    {
      "start": 1627.858,
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      "text": "可是你就可以看到日元现在面临到的贬值",
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    {
      "start": 1632.258,
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      "text": "关键的因素其实是它跟美元之间的利率差别",
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    {
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      "text": "我们叫Carry Trade",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.492807440162114e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.25
    },
    {
      "start": 1638.638,
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      "text": "这种汇率差的差别使得一些国际上的资金",
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    {
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      "text": "就是借日元然后买美元",
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    {
      "start": 1647.458,
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      "text": "你就看到这样的情况就是有这样操作的空间",
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    {
      "start": 1651.398,
      "end": 1652.558,
      "text": "那然后呢",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1652.558,
      "end": 1655.058,
      "text": "当然再加上日本本身的经济",
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    {
      "start": 1655.058,
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      "text": "也是情况看起来OK",
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    {
      "start": 1657.018,
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      "text": "然后它的出口也要扩张",
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      "start": 1660.338,
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      "text": "它同时也没有能力去",
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    {
      "start": 1662.038,
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      "text": "这个升息太多",
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      "text": "因为它现在是1%",
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    {
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      "text": "美国大概是3.6%",
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    {
      "start": 1666.818,
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      "text": "OK 这个是日元的问题",
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      "text": "但我觉得这整个现在问题",
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      "text": "关键还是美元",
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      "text": "以及美债",
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      "text": "还有呢 美国的经济",
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    {
      "start": 1676.078,
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      "text": "刚才大前委员讲到",
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    {
      "start": 1678.658,
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      "text": "连续两次",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
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      "text": "第一次是贝森特来救日元",
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      "text": "第二次是贝森特救他自己的美债",
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    {
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      "text": "他救日元一周效果",
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      "text": "他救美债",
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    {
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      "text": "40亿救美债",
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    {
      "start": 1693.098,
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      "text": "一天效果",
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    {
      "start": 1694.358,
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      "text": "马上就回来",
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      "text": "今天日元比美元是多少",
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      "text": "159",
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      "text": "他那个时候是160",
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    {
      "start": 1701.438,
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      "text": "掉到了155",
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    {
      "start": 1703.338,
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      "text": "然后一周效果就回到了158 59",
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    {
      "start": 1706.498,
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      "text": "现在一直在停留在这个情况",
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    {
      "start": 1709.018,
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      "text": "然后呢",
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    {
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      "text": "为什么美国要去救日元",
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    {
      "start": 1711.598,
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      "text": "因为他怕日本卖美债",
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      "text": "日本现在拥有1.14兆的美债",
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    {
      "start": 1717.558,
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      "text": "那过去三个月",
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    {
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      "text": "他卖了1000亿美债",
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    {
      "start": 1721.998,
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      "text": "贝斯特曾经骂他过",
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    {
      "start": 1724.078,
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      "text": "所以现在如果说",
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    {
      "start": 1726.198,
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      "text": "以美债的这个情况",
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    {
      "start": 1727.618,
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      "text": "如果日本抛售这个",
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      "text": "不管是长期短期的这个债",
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    {
      "start": 1731.298,
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      "text": "美国的国债的话呢",
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    {
      "start": 1732.758,
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      "text": "马上会造成市场的效益",
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      "start": 1734.338,
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      "text": "所以呢",
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      "text": "他不准他卖美债",
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    {
      "start": 1736.678,
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      "text": "那就是说我们来组成一个",
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    {
      "start": 1738.398,
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      "text": "美日货币联盟",
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    {
      "start": 1739.858,
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      "text": "我来帮助你",
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      "start": 1741.818,
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      "text": "但事实上",
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      "text": "它是卖欧元就日元",
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    {
      "start": 1744.778,
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      "text": "贝森特真的是",
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      "start": 1746.378,
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      "text": "我觉得我现在有怀疑",
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    {
      "start": 1748.018,
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      "text": "他当初这种",
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    {
      "start": 1749.298,
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      "text": "就是说市场操守的能力",
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    {
      "start": 1752.218,
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      "text": "也就是说",
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    {
      "start": 1753.298,
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      "text": "他那个时候帮索罗斯",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1754.738,
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      "text": "做超盘手的时候",
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    {
      "start": 1756.198,
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      "text": "第一个",
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    {
      "start": 1757.418,
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      "text": "你怎么卖欧元就日元",
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    {
      "start": 1759.198,
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      "text": "那表示你对你美元没信心",
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    {
      "start": 1761.058,
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      "text": "第二个",
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    {
      "start": 1762.218,
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      "text": "你为什么去",
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    {
      "start": 1763.158,
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      "text": "拿40亿去救美债",
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    {
      "start": 1766.658,
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      "text": "就表示你对美债",
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    {
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      "text": "你的未来不具信心",
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    {
      "start": 1769.438,
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      "text": "现在整个问题都不是钱的问题",
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    {
      "start": 1772.258,
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      "text": "而是一个信心的问题",
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    {
      "start": 1773.578,
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      "text": "大家现在对美元的整个债务结构",
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    {
      "start": 1777.418,
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      "text": "是没有信心",
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    {
      "start": 1778.238,
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      "text": "因为你现在极度的膨胀你的国债",
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    {
      "start": 1781.378,
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      "text": "然后你自己又极度膨胀",
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    {
      "start": 1784.118,
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      "text": "你的赤字预算",
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    {
      "start": 1785.458,
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      "text": "这几年之内你造成美债突破40兆",
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    {
      "start": 1788.878,
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      "text": "所以这个时候你不准日本卖美债",
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    {
      "start": 1793.558,
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      "text": "然后自己又在对美债做",
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    {
      "start": 1796.638,
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      "text": "不具信心的操作",
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      "start": 1798.278,
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      "text": "那讲到日本会不会有什么情况呢",
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      "text": "我觉得日本现在跟在86年的时候不一样了",
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    {
      "start": 1803.378,
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      "text": "因为基本上企业都还算是在赚钱",
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      "start": 1806.658,
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      "text": "那就业也OK",
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    {
      "start": 1807.878,
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      "text": "只不过是呢",
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      "start": 1809.098,
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      "text": "他的日元真的是贬到",
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      "start": 1811.018,
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      "text": "不知道怎么去救他",
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    {
      "start": 1812.578,
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      "text": "那缓慢的他会升息的情况之下呢",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1815.158,
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      "text": "大概就维持这样一个情况一段时间",
      "chunk": 3,
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    {
      "start": 1818.018,
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      "text": "但是未来如果美国真的自己美在",
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    {
      "start": 1821.538,
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      "text": "持续的这个出现问题的时候",
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      "text": "我觉得日本还是为了自救",
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    {
      "start": 1824.918,
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      "text": "某种程度还是会继续抛售美债的",
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    {
      "start": 1827.578,
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      "text": "最后的问题呈现的",
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    {
      "start": 1829.278,
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      "text": "还是美国的整个债务跟财政的问题",
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    {
      "start": 1832.858,
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      "text": "好 所以到头来",
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    {
      "start": 1834.678,
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      "text": "美国的国债问题",
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    {
      "start": 1835.818,
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      "text": "还是得要自己好好的去解决",
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      "start": 1837.878,
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      "text": "包括眼前的债务",
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    {
      "start": 1839.358,
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      "text": "还有它的严重的赤字问题",
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      "start": 1841.438,
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      "text": "那其实现在看起来",
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    {
      "start": 1843.118,
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      "text": "这个美债跟美元的问题",
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    {
      "start": 1844.598,
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      "text": "也直接影响到了",
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    {
      "start": 1845.978,
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      "text": "美国的一般的小老百姓的家庭当中",
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    {
      "start": 1848.498,
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      "text": "也就是美国的家庭了",
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    {
      "start": 1849.718,
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      "text": "我们从几个层面",
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    {
      "start": 1850.578,
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      "text": "几个数据来特别看",
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    {
      "start": 1851.838,
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      "text": "首先是关乎小老百姓",
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    {
      "start": 1853.738,
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      "text": "最直接的就是房贷了",
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    {
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      "text": "房贷利率现在来到了一个新高",
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    {
      "start": 1857.298,
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      "text": "30年期的部分",
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    {
      "start": 1858.738,
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      "text": "现在来到了6.65%",
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    {
      "start": 1860.998,
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      "text": "这个数字是高于去年同期的",
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    {
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      "text": "6.58%的",
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    {
      "start": 1864.738,
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      "text": "那当然了",
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    {
      "start": 1865.718,
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      "text": "因为你这个没钱买房子的话",
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    {
      "start": 1867.558,
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      "text": "也会影响到你的消费力道",
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      "start": 1869.258,
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      "text": "霍尔玛我们来看到零售企业",
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      "text": "最新第一季美国铜电销售成长",
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      "text": "只剩下2.6%",
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      "text": "创下6年最慢的成长速度",
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      "text": "再来看到美国的油价",
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      "text": "在这个伊朗的战事爆发之后",
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      "start": 1882.398,
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      "text": "一口气上涨了四成",
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      "text": "现在来到美加伦",
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      "start": 1885.318,
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      "text": "大约落在4.11美元",
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      "text": "柴油价格来到了新高",
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      "text": "美加伦5.58美元",
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      "start": 1891.958,
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      "text": "高于拜登执政时期",
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      "text": "高盛是这样讲的",
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      "text": "他认为现在美国的市场",
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      "text": "弥漫着停滞性通膨的一个味道",
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      "text": "而且最新民调来看到",
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      "text": "过去共和党主打的都是经济牌",
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      "text": "结果现在民调显示",
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      "text": "民主党在经济议题上",
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      "text": "首度的领先了共和党",
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      "start": 1911.038,
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      "text": "代表说这些有关于民生财政的问题",
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      "text": "都已经成为川普在其中选举上",
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      "text": "非常严重的",
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      "text": "我們先看到有關於GDP的部分。GDP的話,我們看到美國的第一季,它其實GDP是2.1,可是第二季的部分呢,現在所看到的數據到達1.5%,",
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      "text": "房价利率的不断高涨",
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      "text": "以及Walmart的这一个消费降温",
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      "text": "我们慢慢就会看出结果",
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      "text": "那有关于通膨的问题",
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      "text": "我们看到6月的美国的通膨是在3.5%",
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      "text": "那7月的话到达3.4%",
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      "text": "其实也维持在一个平均水准上面",
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      "text": "我们刚刚谈的三个数据",
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      "text": "也就是经济成长",
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      "text": "以及失业率",
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      "text": "以及高通膨的部分",
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      "text": "其实这个都反映出",
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      "text": "现在美国进入了停滞性通膨的时代",
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      "text": "那如果我们反推回去看",
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      "text": "美国的国债",
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      "text": "现在突破了40兆的部分",
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      "text": "40兆是什么样的一个概念",
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      "start": 1987.918,
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      "text": "也就是它的债务利息来讲的话",
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      "text": "那大概也就是每年是9000亿到一兆的部分",
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      "text": "也就是这一兆它通通要拿来还款",
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      "text": "那这一个一兆对于美国的影响是什么",
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      "text": "其实我们看到",
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      "text": "写过文明以及帝国",
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      "text": "这很多著作的历史学家",
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      "text": "我们叫做佛格森",
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      "start": 2009.758,
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      "text": "那他其实在今年的5月7号",
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      "text": "他提出了一个佛格森定律",
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      "text": "那这个定律里面讲的是什么呢",
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      "text": "也就是这一个霸权的国家",
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      "text": "支付债务的利息",
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      "text": "如果超过他的国防预算的话",
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      "text": "这个不是说我们现在这样子唱衰美国",
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      "text": "我们刚刚讲弗格森他是历史学家",
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      "text": "他指出当初的威尼斯帝国",
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      "text": "荷兰帝国 法莱斯帝国 奥匈帝国",
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    {
      "start": 2044.038,
      "end": 2048.638,
      "text": "以及一战二战才结束的大英帝国",
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      "start": 2048.638,
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      "text": "通通都有这个特色",
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      "start": 2049.858,
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      "text": "所以其实美国现在",
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      "start": 2052.338,
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      "text": "有关于贝森特他要挡这个美债",
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    {
      "start": 2055.878,
      "end": 2059.258,
      "text": "被人家笑说这是拿纸巾挡海啸",
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      "start": 2059.258,
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      "text": "在这个枪桑上面贴OK棒",
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      "start": 2062.658,
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      "text": "一点也不为过",
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      "text": "美债危机我们要赶快来看到",
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      "start": 2066.078,
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      "text": "已经不是未来可能发生",
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    {
      "start": 2068.298,
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      "text": "而是已经快速的逼近到一个新的历史关卡了",
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    {
      "start": 2072.598,
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      "text": "大家还记得吗",
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    {
      "start": 2073.798,
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      "text": "我们稍微回顾一下",
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      "start": 2074.718,
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      "text": "在今年三月份的时候",
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      "start": 2075.938,
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      "text": "当时我们不是谈吗",
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      "text": "说美债已经突破了",
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    {
      "start": 2078.578,
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      "text": "39兆美元大关",
      "chunk": 4,
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      "text": "那么这个速度",
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    {
      "start": 2081.558,
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      "text": "没有想到短短的半年之间",
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    {
      "start": 2083.238,
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      "text": "快速的增加",
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    {
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      "text": "原本市场预估说",
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    {
      "start": 2086.038,
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      "text": "至少要到大概",
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    {
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      "text": "40兆美元大关",
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    {
      "start": 2088.998,
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      "text": "要到今年的10月份吧",
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      "text": "没有想到",
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      "text": "现在来自于专家",
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      "text": "特别去做了一个估算",
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    {
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      "text": "可能接下来几天之内",
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      "text": "美债就可能突破了",
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      "text": "40兆美元大关了",
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    {
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      "text": "甚至还有一个市场人士",
      "chunk": 4,
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    {
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      "text": "几个市场人士做了预估说",
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    {
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      "text": "美国的国债到2029年",
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    {
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      "text": "恐怕上看将近50兆美元",
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    {
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      "text": "这是一个最新的数字",
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    {
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      "text": "在强力的美债的卖压之下",
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    {
      "start": 2114.578,
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      "text": "我们要来赶快看到的是美债殖利率了",
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    {
      "start": 2117.038,
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      "text": "尤其是长天期的受到了非常大的影响",
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    {
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      "text": "30年期的国债殖利率正式的冲破了5.3%",
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    {
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      "text": "创下19年新高",
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    {
      "start": 2126.138,
      "end": 2128.998,
      "text": "注意了这个数字是金融海啸之后的",
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    {
      "start": 2128.998,
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      "text": "最新高的一个数字",
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    {
      "start": 2130.978,
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      "text": "美国现在压力非常大的原因",
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    {
      "start": 2132.878,
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      "text": "是因为它光是一年",
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    {
      "start": 2134.298,
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      "text": "每年要还的利息支出",
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    {
      "start": 2135.938,
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      "text": "就上看1.5兆美元",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.8987837344108804e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2138.918,
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      "text": "成为现在联邦政府",
      "chunk": 4,
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      "start": 2140.918,
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      "text": "最大的支出项目之一",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.8987837344108804e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2143.218,
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      "text": "所以今天节目一开始",
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    {
      "start": 2144.358,
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      "text": "我们先请教大使怎么看了",
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    {
      "start": 2145.798,
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      "text": "美债40兆",
      "chunk": 4,
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    {
      "start": 2146.898,
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      "text": "现在可以说已经正式的进入倒数了",
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    {
      "start": 2149.298,
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      "text": "殖利率突破了5.3%",
      "chunk": 4,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1021409649059085,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8987837344108804e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2151.658,
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      "text": "现在再看说30年期的美债殖利率",
      "chunk": 4,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1021409649059085,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8987837344108804e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2154.258,
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      "text": "有没有可能甚至往5.5%",
      "chunk": 4,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1021409649059085,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8987837344108804e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2156.758,
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      "text": "甚至6%来发展",
      "chunk": 4,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1021409649059085,
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    {
      "start": 2158.718,
      "end": 2160.198,
      "text": "如果发生的话",
      "chunk": 4,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1021409649059085,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8987837344108804e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3278145695364238
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    {
      "start": 2160.198,
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      "text": "会不会迎来一场大型的债务危机",
      "chunk": 4,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11147554715474446,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.185602744452341e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3210332103321034
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    {
      "start": 2163.118,
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      "text": "美国到底是如何走到今天这一步的",
      "chunk": 4,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11147554715474446,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.185602744452341e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2165.958,
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      "text": "大师怎么看",
      "chunk": 4,
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    {
      "start": 2166.698,
      "end": 2168.558,
      "text": "对 美国事实上的话",
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    {
      "start": 2168.558,
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      "text": "它的债就是最近十年差不多",
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      "text": "本来大概差不多五兆多",
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      "text": "现在变成四十兆",
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      "text": "这里面当然有战争的因素",
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      "text": "也有新冠那段时间",
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      "text": "政府举债很多",
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      "text": "还有就是这一阵子",
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      "text": "新冠结束以后",
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      "text": "这些战争",
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      "text": "从恶务战争到美伊战争",
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      "text": "就让美国政府的债务快速往上增加",
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      "text": "所以这个是一个短期的",
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      "text": "可是美债它一般来讲",
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      "text": "它有三座大山",
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      "text": "第一个就是长置性",
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      "text": "美国政府的强制性支出越来越多",
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      "text": "这些支出",
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      "text": "医疗保健的支出",
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      "text": "因为这是全世界的现象",
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      "text": "美国社会也面向高龄化",
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      "text": "它也是增长得非常的快",
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      "text": "美国政府在这方面它不能够裁减",
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      "text": "它一定要支出",
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      "text": "一年大概就是一兆美金以上",
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      "text": "今年有人估计到1.5兆",
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      "text": "那么因为今年过了一半了",
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      "text": "还没有到全部出来",
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      "text": "就上兆美金的话",
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      "text": "那那个政府的支出",
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      "text": "那就很难解决",
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      "text": "它的增长不如它的开支",
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      "text": "尤其共和党的政府",
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      "text": "大概讲的都是减税",
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      "text": "很少去征税",
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      "text": "即使民主党的政府",
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      "text": "也不敢轻言征税",
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      "text": "所以美国的",
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      "text": "基本上的政府的财政收入",
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      "text": "长期的趋势就是不断的下降",
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      "text": "所以在支出畅生",
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      "text": "然后再加上有一些特殊的状况",
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      "text": "战争的状况",
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      "text": "瘟疫的状况之下",
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      "text": "还有他这个人口老化",
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      "text": "政府要负担的基本经费",
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      "text": "不断增加税",
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      "text": "所以它的债务就演变",
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      "text": "累积的非常的快",
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      "text": "非常非常的快",
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      "text": "那当然现在这个贝森特",
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      "text": "他有一个政策",
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      "text": "他也很具体",
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    {
      "start": 2317.278,
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      "text": "他叫一个333政策",
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    {
      "start": 2319.618,
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      "text": "他要控制这个债",
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    {
      "start": 2321.378,
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      "text": "他第一个三",
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    {
      "start": 2322.698,
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      "text": "是希望美国的GDP的成长在3%",
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    {
      "start": 2326.418,
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      "text": "对 他希望达到这个",
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    {
      "start": 2328.338,
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      "text": "第二个三呢",
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    {
      "start": 2329.598,
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      "text": "是美国的财政",
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    {
      "start": 2331.658,
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      "text": "政府的财政赤字",
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    {
      "start": 2333.638,
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      "text": "这要控制在GDP的3%之内",
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      "start": 2337.158,
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      "text": "GDP的3%之内",
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    {
      "start": 2339.378,
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      "text": "第三个三呢",
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    {
      "start": 2340.978,
      "end": 2343.298,
      "text": "川普很喜欢用的一件事",
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    {
      "start": 2343.298,
      "end": 2350.258,
      "text": "就每天石油的产量能够大达300万桶",
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      "start": 2350.258,
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      "text": "所以他这个三个三",
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      "start": 2351.938,
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      "text": "增加石油是怎么样",
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      "start": 2353.878,
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      "text": "就是增加收入",
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      "start": 2355.298,
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      "text": "那另外一方面控制这个赤字",
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    {
      "start": 2358.498,
      "end": 2360.658,
      "text": "然后他希望经济能够成长",
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      "start": 2360.658,
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      "text": "那这个三个三看起来都不容易",
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      "start": 2362.998,
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      "text": "那不过现在美国基本上就是说",
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      "text": "它的国债的这个基本上的持有",
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      "text": "是国内的持有率越来越高",
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      "text": "国外的持有率这个降低",
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      "text": "不过这个比例的话",
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      "text": "我们会认为国外的比例很高",
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      "text": "其实国外的持有美国美债比例",
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      "text": "大概只占有多少",
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      "start": 2382.978,
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      "text": "不到十分之一",
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      "start": 2384.918,
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      "text": "不到四分之一",
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      "text": "大概就是9.3兆",
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      "text": "而外國的政府持有的也不過3.9兆",
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      "text": "那外國的私人銀行私人持有的大概是5.4兆",
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      "text": "那其他美債40兆 将近40兆",
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      "text": "还是美国国内持有的",
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      "start": 2404.249,
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      "text": "那大家说有的民众",
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      "start": 2407.629,
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      "text": "还有这些各种基金",
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      "text": "包括退休基金",
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      "start": 2411.469,
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      "text": "还有什么呢",
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      "start": 2412.349,
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      "text": "共同基金 也是持有大批美債",
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    {
      "start": 2414.889,
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      "text": "所以你要说美債完全失控的话",
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      "start": 2419.349,
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      "text": "可是美国国内的这个持有率",
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    {
      "start": 2421.289,
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      "text": "还是占了比较居高的情况之下",
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    {
      "start": 2424.089,
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      "text": "我个人倒不是那么悲观",
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    {
      "start": 2426.009,
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      "text": "不是那麼悲觀",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2428.169,
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      "text": "好 這邊我們是看到是幾個統計的數字",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2431.889,
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      "text": "可以看到美國的國債很快的",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2433.809,
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      "text": "就會正式的突破了40兆美元大關",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2436.249,
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      "text": "剛剛大使也清楚的解析了為什麼的原因",
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    {
      "start": 2439.389,
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      "text": "那現在我們也來看到一些比較具體的數字",
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    {
      "start": 2441.629,
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      "text": "就是說到底現在美國赤字到底有多高",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2444.269,
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      "text": "現在最新的數字是達到了2.1兆",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2446.369,
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      "text": "比去年增加了2000億美元",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2448.729,
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      "text": "那我們剛剛也提到債息的支出",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2451.309,
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      "text": "一年的利息是1.5兆美元",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.16586208983555736,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.2196683727160327e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4110032362459546
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    {
      "start": 2453.629,
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      "text": "等於說每一個月就要燒千億美元",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.15546580723353795,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.9495743561193102e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2456.769,
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      "text": "現在更危險的事情是政府的支出",
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    {
      "start": 2459.569,
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      "text": "遠大於收入",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.15546580723353795,
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    {
      "start": 2460.829,
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      "text": "而且是達到兩倍以上",
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      "start": 2462.869,
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      "text": "那剛剛大使也特別提到了",
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      "text": "有關於國債的持有",
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      "text": "也就是國外的持有國債的國家",
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      "start": 2469.209,
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      "text": "其實我們看到兩個國家",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.9495743561193102e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2470.389,
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      "text": "現在也正在大幅的賣壓美債",
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    {
      "start": 2473.649,
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      "text": "那包括很重要的持有國",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.9495743561193102e-11,
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      "text": "日本跟中國大陸",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
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      "text": "首先看到日本",
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      "text": "一口氣減持了264億美元",
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      "language": "zh",
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    {
      "start": 2482.729,
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      "text": "是主要的减持国家",
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    {
      "start": 2484.069,
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      "text": "尤其现在也有专家解读说",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12469962665012904,
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      "start": 2486.289,
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      "text": "日本你现在是不是在背刺美国呢",
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      "language": "zh",
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      "start": 2488.569,
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      "text": "就是因为你的日元现在强",
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    {
      "start": 2490.189,
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      "text": "非常的弱",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
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    {
      "start": 2491.289,
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      "text": "一直在贬值",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2492.569,
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      "text": "所以你是不是要抛售美债",
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    {
      "start": 2494.209,
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      "text": "来救你的日元呢",
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    {
      "start": 2496.529,
      "end": 2498.189,
      "text": "中国大陆的部分减持幅度",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2498.189,
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      "text": "也有259亿美元",
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    {
      "start": 2500.329,
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      "text": "那目前持有的美债",
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    {
      "start": 2501.949,
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      "text": "是6000多亿美元",
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    {
      "start": 2503.269,
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      "text": "创下2008年金融海啸以来最低了",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.6344884607176766e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2506.849,
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      "text": "年减幅是超过13%",
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    {
      "start": 2509.269,
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      "text": "先来看到有关于日本的部分",
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    {
      "start": 2511.549,
      "end": 2514.849,
      "text": "為了救日元是在被刺美國嗎",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2514.849,
      "end": 2515.589,
      "text": "如果這樣的話",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
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    {
      "start": 2515.589,
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      "text": "會不會把接下來的美債殖利率",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.3038413191067697e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2517.289,
      "end": 2518.649,
      "text": "推得越來越高",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.3038413191067697e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2518.649,
      "end": 2521.089,
      "text": "會不會爆發美國的財政問題呢",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.3038413191067697e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2521.089,
      "end": 2522.489,
      "text": "上次哥有怎麼看",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2522.489,
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      "text": "好 首先我們可以看得出來",
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      "language": "zh",
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    {
      "start": 2523.689,
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      "text": "先前美國介入日元",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
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    {
      "start": 2525.489,
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      "text": "那麼所謂這個介入是意思",
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    {
      "start": 2528.109,
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      "text": "因為100億",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
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      "start": 2529.409,
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      "text": "那麼日本當時都準備了700多億美金",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2533.309,
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      "text": "所以它就是一個動作",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
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    {
      "start": 2534.509,
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      "text": "主要是嚇阻一下這些",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2535.949,
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      "text": "在外面的這些投資基金",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.3038413191067697e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2537.849,
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      "text": "所以它也不是真正的什麼救美元",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.2115511279895993,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.3038413191067697e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2540.049,
      "end": 2541.309,
      "text": "而且賺個人情嘛",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2541.309,
      "end": 2542.209,
      "text": "給告示著瞄",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2542.209,
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      "text": "他最大的意義主要還是說",
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    {
      "start": 2543.549,
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      "text": "這個市場投機太多",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
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    {
      "start": 2545.349,
      "end": 2548.609,
      "text": "一旦萬一日元的貶值真的大崩潰",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2548.609,
      "end": 2550.849,
      "text": "日元貶值崩潰會對美國整體來說",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
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    {
      "start": 2550.849,
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      "text": "就是一個比較難搞",
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    {
      "start": 2553.289,
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      "text": "我認為其實不是會太大影響",
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    {
      "start": 2555.489,
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      "text": "什麼意思呢",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2556.029,
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      "text": "就是說比如說",
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    {
      "start": 2557.249,
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      "text": "比如說剛剛講",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
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    {
      "start": 2558.229,
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      "text": "現在以美債的問題",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2559.689,
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      "text": "債務的連動性",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3988269794721409
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    {
      "start": 2561.069,
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      "text": "然後另外美股的部分",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2562.289,
      "end": 2564.169,
      "text": "現在是AI 經濟動能",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3988269794721409
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    {
      "start": 2564.169,
      "end": 2565.229,
      "text": "如果現在這個泡沫",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2565.229,
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      "text": "一旦有比較大的一個",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2566.469,
      "end": 2568.609,
      "text": "國際變數的時候比較難處理",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2568.609,
      "end": 2569.729,
      "text": "再加上還有戰爭的因素",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.18972591824001736,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.317112209910711e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2569.729,
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      "text": "所以美国对于日元的态度",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2572.429,
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      "text": "其实还是就是你知道",
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    {
      "start": 2573.709,
      "end": 2575.429,
      "text": "就是玉皇大帝看人间",
      "chunk": 5,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.4497331246875476e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2575.429,
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      "text": "没有真正很认真",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.4497331246875476e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2576.849,
      "end": 2578.249,
      "text": "就是说稍微处理一下",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2578.249,
      "end": 2579.589,
      "text": "当然美债",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2579.589,
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      "text": "我想其实大家对美债当中",
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      "text": "既然会看到这些吓人的数字",
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    {
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      "text": "特别是今年一定会破40兆美金",
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      "text": "40兆",
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      "start": 2587.869,
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      "text": "这个东西很可怕",
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      "start": 2589.089,
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      "text": "但是如果你真正的懂",
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      "start": 2591.449,
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      "text": "这个国际货币跟国际资本",
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      "text": "到国际的金融的时候",
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      "start": 2595.729,
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      "text": "你要理解",
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      "start": 2596.809,
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      "text": "其实我不能说不严重",
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      "start": 2598.069,
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      "text": "它之所以现在都觉得很严重",
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    {
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      "text": "因为过去没有发生过",
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      "text": "比如说以美债来说",
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    {
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      "text": "过去没有到这样子的规模",
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    {
      "start": 2603.989,
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      "text": "过去所谓的30年的殖利率",
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      "start": 2606.969,
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      "text": "过去认为大概3.8%",
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    {
      "start": 2609.289,
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      "text": "也就是说你知道我们美元存钱有利息",
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    {
      "start": 2611.909,
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      "text": "美债买美债会利息",
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    {
      "start": 2613.769,
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      "text": "过去觉得3.8%就是个安全可控的时候",
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    {
      "start": 2616.149,
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      "text": "破4 甚至4.2%",
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    {
      "start": 2617.729,
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      "text": "会得到危险表示波动大了",
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    {
      "start": 2620.209,
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      "text": "然后现在到5了",
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    {
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      "text": "所以因为没有经历过",
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    {
      "start": 2623.249,
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      "text": "所以大家很惊吓",
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    {
      "start": 2624.129,
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      "text": "然而我们要告诉大家",
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    {
      "start": 2625.509,
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      "text": "其实这个东西并不是让他想象中的",
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    {
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      "text": "為什麼這樣講呢",
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      "text": "就是說這並不是美國會破",
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      "text": "政府會破產",
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    {
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      "text": "美國會倒了",
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      "text": "不可能啦",
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      "text": "而且我們現在看美元現在的強勢的狀態",
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    {
      "start": 2636.369,
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      "text": "相較於其他全世界的貨幣",
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    {
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      "text": "人民幣英鎊",
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    {
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      "text": "包括等等",
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      "text": "日元不要說了",
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      "start": 2641.089,
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      "text": "誰會",
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    {
      "start": 2641.869,
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      "text": "每個人都要美元",
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    {
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      "text": "也就是說美元現在強勢跟穩定",
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    {
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      "text": "甚至可能比美債好",
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    {
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      "text": "美國現在就是一個政府裡頭",
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    {
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      "text": "手上有很多很多的金融工具",
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    {
      "start": 2650.389,
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      "text": "而且那麼多猶太人",
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    {
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      "text": "美國對於法律跟金融",
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      "text": "那麼多的人才",
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    {
      "start": 2654.529,
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      "text": "創造出遊戲規則",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2656.009,
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      "text": "現在觀眾朋友大家買的ETF",
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    {
      "start": 2657.909,
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      "text": "你看過去沒有 為什麼生出來",
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      "start": 2659.609,
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      "text": "就猶太人又發明了一個",
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    {
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      "text": "可以刺激投資的很多工具",
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    {
      "start": 2663.309,
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      "text": "所以美國其實是",
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    {
      "start": 2664.349,
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      "text": "我們都有能力處理",
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    {
      "start": 2665.549,
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      "text": "那現在就是這個東西",
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    {
      "start": 2666.749,
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      "text": "是過去沒有經歷過的",
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    {
      "start": 2668.149,
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      "text": "大家注意為什麼美債",
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    {
      "start": 2669.149,
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      "text": "我說大家不要想像中很驚嚇",
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    {
      "start": 2671.249,
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      "text": "因為有FED",
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    {
      "start": 2672.449,
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      "text": "FED當然是對於美元",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2674.029,
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      "text": "然後同時控制美債",
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    {
      "start": 2675.269,
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      "text": "它有一個特別這樣的機構",
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    {
      "start": 2676.829,
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      "text": "全世界的央行沒有辦法跟FED比",
      "chunk": 5,
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    {
      "start": 2679.369,
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      "text": "因為FED控制的是美元跟美債",
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    {
      "start": 2681.929,
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      "text": "在這個世界的絕對值",
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    {
      "start": 2684.309,
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      "text": "我們知道陽光空氣水",
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    {
      "start": 2686.109,
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      "text": "這裡到底哪個最重要",
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      "start": 2687.629,
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      "text": "其實就是空氣",
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      "text": "因為呼吸一秒鐘沒的就死了",
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      "text": "我覺得美元包括美元系統",
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      "text": "包括美債",
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      "start": 2694.549,
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      "text": "它現在全世界從貨幣資本金融的呼吸空氣",
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      "text": "所以你要說完全就是不能呼吸了",
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      "start": 2701.209,
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      "text": "不是美國死了",
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      "text": "是全世界都死了",
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      "start": 2703.509,
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      "text": "而且現在大家要注意狀況",
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      "text": "美元就流動性",
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      "text": "大家都有美元賣來賣去",
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      "text": "所以那個流動性在這裡",
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      "text": "好 美債是FED來固定美元資產",
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    {
      "start": 2713.229,
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      "text": "什麼意思呢",
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      "text": "我有 你有房子 我有股票",
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      "text": "然後他有台幣",
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      "text": "可是如果在國際投資當中",
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      "text": "你要怎麼轉換",
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      "text": "你這個很難換",
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      "text": "也就是說流動性這個方便性",
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      "text": "第一個當然是美元",
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      "text": "所以全世界任何時刻",
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      "text": "包括這次戰爭",
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      "text": "為什麼美元沒有貶值",
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      "text": "因為美元流動性還是最重要",
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      "text": "而且在股市 全球股市那麼大",
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      "text": "第二個部分 美債",
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      "text": "它雖然是美債",
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      "text": "但是美債你只要丟出去了",
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      "text": "你就要換手了",
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      "start": 2737.609,
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      "text": "包括我們剛剛講",
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      "text": "中國大陸跟日本拋售美債",
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      "text": "馬上就有人接",
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      "text": "因為它變現性很好",
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      "start": 2743.609,
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      "text": "變現金不是你我士金小民",
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      "text": "我們都要現金",
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      "text": "國家政府需要變現",
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      "text": "像中國政府他算要拋售美債",
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      "text": "你以為他在拋光嗎",
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      "text": "包括採購還有很多的東西",
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      "text": "他還是要有美元交易",
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      "text": "中國政府不是說",
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      "text": "大家都在認為人民幣交易",
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      "text": "都不要美元交易的",
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      "text": "沒有",
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      "text": "所以中國大陸拋售美債的時候",
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      "text": "是換取美元",
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      "text": "然後做一些部分的",
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      "text": "這種國際的現金流通",
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      "text": "這一般沒有思考的",
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      "text": "所以這裡頭不是說美債",
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      "text": "所以美債殖利率高",
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      "text": "那问题在哪里呢",
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      "text": "因为不是他们要",
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      "text": "而是说大家觉得信用",
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      "text": "本质的信用",
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      "text": "有很多其他东西",
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      "text": "于是殖利率不是华尔街要挟的",
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    {
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      "text": "是自然市场产生的",
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      "text": "因为大家就觉得",
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    {
      "start": 2786.189,
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      "text": "我有更多的投资工具",
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2787.469,
      "end": 2789.429,
      "text": "美债长期利率30年",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2789.429,
      "end": 2790.929,
      "text": "30年后才能兑现",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2790.929,
      "end": 2792.389,
      "text": "所以它要一直推高",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2792.389,
      "end": 2793.309,
      "text": "利息就会高了",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2793.309,
      "end": 2795.889,
      "text": "可是美债的殖利率高的时候",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2795.889,
      "end": 2796.949,
      "text": "就表示什么意思呢",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2796.949,
      "end": 2797.949,
      "text": "我什么都不要动",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2797.949,
      "end": 2800.529,
      "text": "我作为风险性最低的收市买美债",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2800.529,
      "end": 2802.509,
      "text": "我每年就有5点多%的利率",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1386027787861071,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.9504587101557576e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.410179640718563
    },
    {
      "start": 2802.509,
      "end": 2804.769,
      "text": "比现在我们拿台币去存得还好高",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2804.769,
      "end": 2807.049,
      "text": "所以我觉得最后大家要特别注意的部分",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2807.049,
      "end": 2810.049,
      "text": "我们对美债危机是一个美国政府管理",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2810.049,
      "end": 2814.129,
      "text": "它不会是整个全球的金融货币系统崩溃",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2814.129,
      "end": 2815.749,
      "text": "除非有新的部分",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2815.749,
      "end": 2817.549,
      "text": "目前无论人民没有任何的货币",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2817.549,
      "end": 2821.429,
      "text": "都没有办法成为阳光空气水的空气",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2821.429,
      "end": 2824.049,
      "text": "目前美元或美债系统才是",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2824.049,
      "end": 2826.369,
      "text": "好 所以我们看到美债危机到底",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2826.369,
      "end": 2828.609,
      "text": "我们谈了这么久会不会立刻的爆发",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2828.609,
      "end": 2831.149,
      "text": "现在还要打上一个问号一个大问号",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1348198099834163,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9096327777700104e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4511041009463723
    },
    {
      "start": 2831.149,
      "end": 2835.249,
      "text": "但是呢 現在要來看到是美國內部的信用危機",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2835.249,
      "end": 2836.589,
      "text": "卻是非常急迫的",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2836.589,
      "end": 2838.189,
      "text": "我們要來看到一些具體的數字",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
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    {
      "start": 2838.189,
      "end": 2840.629,
      "text": "因為它的債務問題一路的已經衍生到",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2840.629,
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      "text": "從政府到了企業金融 甚至是一般家庭",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2843.569,
      "end": 2846.769,
      "text": "首先我們來看到有關於私募貸款的部分",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2846.769,
      "end": 2849.709,
      "text": "現在正式的來到了2兆美元大關",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2849.709,
      "end": 2853.169,
      "text": "市場說現在面臨的是10年來最大的考驗",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2853.169,
      "end": 2856.069,
      "text": "尤其是國際信評機構會議發布的最新報告",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2856.069,
      "end": 2859.209,
      "text": "它一共這一次是追蹤了1000多家的企業",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2859.209,
      "end": 2860.669,
      "text": "裡面得到的結果是",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.18573760986328125,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.107139983331674e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3721590909090908
    },
    {
      "start": 2860.669,
      "end": 2863.109,
      "text": "美国的私募信贷借款人违约率",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1340228522696146,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6244785031038766e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 0.9191919191919192
    },
    {
      "start": 2863.109,
      "end": 2866.289,
      "text": "有7月攀升到了一个新高的记录",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1340228522696146,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6244785031038766e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 0.9191919191919192
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    {
      "start": 2866.289,
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      "text": "而且非常",
      "chunk": 5,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1340228522696146,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6244785031038766e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 0.9191919191919192
    },
    {
      "start": 2882.369,
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      "text": "这个是已经深的有违约的",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2884.769,
      "end": 2886.049,
      "text": "90天的一个比例",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2886.049,
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      "text": "已经来到了12.8%",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 2888.029,
      "end": 2891.429,
      "text": "远高于2022年当时的7.6%",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
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    {
      "start": 2891.429,
      "end": 2893.589,
      "text": "信用卡平均年率率",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2893.589,
      "end": 2895.229,
      "text": "也已经来到了第一季",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2895.229,
      "end": 2897.629,
      "text": "最高达到了24%",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
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    {
      "start": 2897.629,
      "end": 2899.309,
      "text": "代表说因为呢",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2899.309,
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      "text": "现在美国生活成本真的是非常的高",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2901.709,
      "end": 2903.269,
      "text": "而且还有通膨的问题等到",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2903.269,
      "end": 2905.709,
      "text": "美国人用信用卡来去度日",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2905.709,
      "end": 2907.149,
      "text": "已经变成了一个非常",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2907.149,
      "end": 2909.429,
      "text": "这个已经变成了一个常态",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2909.429,
      "end": 2911.429,
      "text": "所以接下来美国的这个经济",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.14948327556934232,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.9724053079993595e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3992932862190812
    },
    {
      "start": 2911.429,
      "end": 2912.309,
      "text": "还有财政问题",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2912.309,
      "end": 2913.389,
      "text": "张将军又怎么看",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2913.389,
      "end": 2915.509,
      "text": "我认为美国现在这个状况",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2915.509,
      "end": 2916.189,
      "text": "一般来讲",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2916.189,
      "end": 2918.509,
      "text": "虽然是不理想",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2918.509,
      "end": 2920.909,
      "text": "这个美下预矿",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2920.909,
      "end": 2922.549,
      "text": "但是我认为它撑得过去",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2922.549,
      "end": 2922.929,
      "text": "我们看",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2922.929,
      "end": 2924.809,
      "text": "我们从几个指标来看",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2924.809,
      "end": 2926.889,
      "text": "第一个美国现在经济是成长",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2926.889,
      "end": 2929.089,
      "text": "它今年的预估经济成长率",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2929.089,
      "end": 2930.509,
      "text": "是1.9%",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2930.509,
      "end": 2931.069,
      "text": "它成长",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2931.069,
      "end": 2931.789,
      "text": "它没有衰退",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17032927632983266,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.0344004258987525e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4392857142857143
    },
    {
      "start": 2931.789,
      "end": 2933.729,
      "text": "没有说我现在也开始富的了",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
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      "text": "比去年差",
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      "text": "去年的经济成长2025",
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      "text": "美国是2.5%",
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      "text": "那今年是1.9%",
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      "text": "它还是成长",
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      "text": "那既然是成长型",
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      "start": 2942.689,
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      "text": "它的所得是增加的",
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      "text": "第二个我们看美国",
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      "text": "美国现在的全国总生产",
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    {
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      "text": "是29兆美元",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.348148148148148
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    {
      "start": 2950.149,
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      "text": "但有人有另外有算法",
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      "text": "但是我们拿29兆美元来看",
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    {
      "start": 2954.289,
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      "text": "以这个102兆对它来看",
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      "text": "一来比",
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      "text": "占比就小了",
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      "start": 2959.929,
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      "text": "因为我体量大",
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      "text": "你这个小数目",
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      "text": "就相对的被我稀释",
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      "text": "那这个意思在什么",
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    {
      "start": 2965.349,
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      "text": "美国对信用危机的忍受度是高的",
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      "text": "因为我有钱",
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      "text": "我没有钱我马上破产",
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      "text": "我不行了 我受不了",
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    {
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      "text": "现在美国的每一个人均所得",
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      "text": "是8万9千块美金",
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      "text": "所以你这个钱来看",
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    {
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      "text": "对我来讲是相对稀释的",
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      "text": "现在美国人每一个人的",
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    {
      "start": 2984.709,
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      "text": "信用贷款的额度",
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    {
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      "text": "是每一个人平均欠了",
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    {
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      "text": "超值的透值7886块美金",
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    {
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      "text": "还不到1万",
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    {
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      "text": "但是我的手的收入",
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    {
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      "text": "我全年大家平均",
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      "text": "我是8.9万 8万9千块",
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      "text": "够不够",
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    {
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      "text": "我这个信用的人数是够的",
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      "text": "因为我赚的多",
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      "text": "当然我花的更多",
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      "text": "但是那比例一摊就小了",
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      "text": "另外我们来看",
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    {
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      "text": "就是我们知道的经济成长率",
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      "text": "我们现在看通货膨胀",
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    {
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      "text": "美国的通货膨胀",
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    {
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      "text": "今年年增率",
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    {
      "start": 3016.209,
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      "text": "平均年增率",
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    {
      "start": 3017.069,
      "end": 3018.449,
      "text": "因为现在才8月还没有结束",
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    {
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      "text": "2026年",
      "chunk": 6,
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    {
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      "text": "大概是2.5%",
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    {
      "start": 3021.029,
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      "text": "那2%换句话说",
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    {
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      "text": "美元我是在贬值",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.380281690140845
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    {
      "start": 3024.089,
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      "text": "因为通货膨胀",
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    {
      "start": 3025.229,
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      "text": "钱就是要贬",
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    {
      "start": 3026.329,
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      "text": "现在我们讲最高的年增率",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4427858213705846e-11,
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    {
      "start": 3028.729,
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      "text": "你刚才有说过就是",
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    {
      "start": 3030.129,
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      "text": "我们30年期美债的年增率是",
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    {
      "start": 3033.329,
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      "text": "这个利息是5.3",
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    {
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      "text": "你5.3减掉2.5",
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    {
      "start": 3038.329,
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      "text": "因为你要贬2.5",
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    {
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      "text": "我刚才讲 平均来看",
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    {
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      "text": "你也只有2.8",
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    {
      "start": 3043.129,
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      "text": "高不高",
      "chunk": 6,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2443483318397385,
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    {
      "start": 3044.129,
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      "text": "而且30年美国国债是比较高的",
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    {
      "start": 3047.229,
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      "text": "最高是",
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    {
      "start": 3047.829,
      "end": 3049.429,
      "text": "你两年期 五年期 十年期",
      "chunk": 6,
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