{ "text": "Hello大家好,我是小巫,歡迎來到東托邦。\n科技起點這個詞,相信大家這幾年都聽膩了。\n而提到起點到來的時間,很多人可能會一口重生的說2027年。\n原因是2024年的時候,有一份據稱是OpenAI機密文件的資料在網上流傳。\n資料顯示,OpenAI將於2027年創造出能像人類一樣思考和學習,\n具有自主意識和情感的通用人工智能AGI。\n几年前我们在资料流出的第一时间\n就做视频详细聊了人工智能的前世今生\n以及为何人工智能将是\n引爆下一个科技起点的关键技术\n这里就不做过多的赘述了\n不过最近却有不少经济学家\n和科技界的学者公开预警说\n2027年不会是AGI崛起的生日\n反而可能是AI泡沫破裂的忌日\n今天我们就来聊聊AI是否存在泡沫\n如果存在的话\n今天的AI泡沫与20多年前的互联网泡\n有哪些雷同之处\n当年的历史是否会在今天重演\n为什么说这次不一样\n是金融史上最昂贵的谎言\n巴菲特又为什么会觉得\n如今的美股市场像是一座赌场呢\n灾难来袭时\n普通人该如何自保呢\n在网上吹哨经济危机即将到来的专家\n是不胜美举\n我们来看几个数据大家就明白了\n先说美股\nAI相关股票目前已经占到标普500\n总市值的大约45%\n华尔街投行杰夫瑞公司的研究表明\n如果完全剔除AI板块的话\n标普500今年仅上涨了2%\n美股市场对AI的仰仗程度可见一斑\n其实不光是美股被AI绑架了\n连同整个美国的经济都是如此\n根据牛津经济研究院经济学家\n迈克尔皮尔斯的估算\n美国目前约三分之一的经济增长\n也都全拜AI所赐\n为什么最近几年与AI产业相关的财经数据\n都显得这么夸张呢\n抛开资本逐利的本质不谈\n还有一个重要原因是\nAI公司之间的循环融资\n他们靠着左脚踩右脚\n就可以不断的做大账面规模\n什么是循环融资呢\n简单来说就是A公司投资了B公司\nB公司有了钱再去买A公司的产品和服务\n以往业界对循环融资\n还有一种称呼叫做厂商融资\n这种现象在当年互联网泡沫时期\n也是十分常见的\n我再举一个通俗的例子大家就懂了\n好比我是一个咖啡机供应商\n听说你想开一家咖啡店\n我就借钱给你\n你有了钱就可以从我这里买咖啡机了\n而有了咖啡机\n咖啡店就能开起来了\n你靠卖咖啡赚到了钱\n不但能还上借款\n还能继续在我这买咖啡机\n继续开店\n大致就是这么一个逻辑\n而具体到目前的AI产业\n就是芯片商或者是云端方\n出钱投资模型公司\n模型公司有了钱\n在反手购买芯片商的芯片\n租用云端方的云端\n动辄千亿美元级别的巨额投资\n看起来是非常唬人的\n但其实就是在几个AI巨头的\n资产负债表里面闪转腾挪\n明眼人都看得出来\n一旦这段咬合严密的链条上的\n任何一个环节出现松动\n都有可能带来多米诺股牌效应\n不论是美国股市市场\n还是美国经济\n如今都是在头部AI公司的领跑下\n猛脸狂奔\n路上随便一颗小石子\n就能够戳破泡沫\n引爆金融海啸\n这颗石子可能是美国的债务危机\n毕竟美债现在已经突破了\n39万亿美元大关\n占GDP的比重超过了100%\n而国际公认的安全线是60%\n也可能是中美之间的大国角力\n这让美国无法停下\n对AI产业加码推进的脚步\n认为AI泡沫终将在最近几年内\n破裂的投资圈大佬不在少数\n但关于泡沫破裂的具体时间\n他们的看法却各有不同\n比如说海银资本创始人王玉权\n就认为根据以往的历史经验判断\nAI泡沫破裂的时间不是在2027年\n而是在2029年\n相较之下\n穆迪分析近期发布的一份报告\n给出的预测显得要更加严峻了\n报告显示AI泡沫破裂的时间\n或许就在2026年的某个季度\n一旦AI产业的营收增速不及预期\n恐慌性抛售就将导致股市暴跌25%\n20万亿美元的市值也将随之蒸发\n同样桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥\n也不止一次的表达过他的担忧\n在他看来泡沫破裂的窗口\n应该是在美国中期选举之后\n到新一届总统宣誓就职之前\n具体来说就是2026年11月到2029年1月之间\n他给出的理由是\n一旦关于富豪税或者是未实现资本利得税的提案\n在国会冒头\n大量投部AI公司的持股人为了规避潜在的重税\n就会陆续套现离场\n届时经济危机便如期而至\n定大空投主角的原型曾经预言了\n2008年美国次贷危机的麦克尔·伯里\n也同样认为当下美股市场正处于重大逆转的边缘\n眼下的情形让他联想到了2000年互联网泡沫\n尽管博里最近几年的名声不太好\n他长期对市场做出悲观的预测\n却屡屡落空\n甚至被外界戏称为那个总喊狼来了的男孩\n不过他也坚信狼只是现在没来\n并不代表这头狼不存在\n博里给出的预测是AI泡沫\n随时都有可能破裂\n无论是持续的美衣冲突\n还是油价暴涨\n亦或是私人信贷市场的风险\n都有可能成为击垮美股的临门一角\n美国银行分析师迈克尔哈特尼特\n也持相同的观点\n他认为当前市场的投机行情\n或许尚未结束\n但种种迹象都表明拐点正在临近\n他做出这个判断的依据\n是在2026年5月的最后一个交易时\n标普500创下了收盘历史新高\n但在20只创下历史新高的成分股中\n只有7只与AI没有直接的关联\n这一现象与26年前互联网泡沫\n顶峰时期的市场特征高度相似\n说到这儿\n相信不少观众都会心生疑问\n为什么这么多专家都将AI泡沫\n与当年的互联网泡沫相提并论\n当年的惨况是否真的会重演\n各位先别着急\n接下来让我们把时间拨回到千禧年\n看看当年的互联网泡沫究竟是怎么一回事\n说到千禧年互联网泡沫的起点\n有一个人我们不得不齐\n他就是世界上第一款成功商业化的浏览器\n网警的发明人\n有着互联网点火人之称的马克·安德森\n他的名气远没有比尔盖茨乔布斯那么如雷冠啊\n就连扎克伯格在跟他握手之前\n都不知道他以前是干啥的\n但这并不妨碍安德森后来成为了\n扎克伯格创业路上的重要导师\n1992年还是伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳香槟分校计算机专业再读生的安德森\n利用课余时间在学校里的国家超级计算机应用中心打工\n这份工作让他第一次接触到了互联网\n很快这位大学生便嗅到了浏览器\n在未来的巨大商机\n于是和同伴们一起捣鼓出了\n全球首个加入图像元素的浏览器\n最初命名为马赛克\n后来更名为王景\n谁都没有想到\n这款大学生的客鱼作品\n会在短短几年后\n垄断整个浏览器市场\n占据了九成以上的市场份额\n1995年8月9日\n仅仅成立16个月\n还没有实现盈利的王景公司\n在纳斯达克桥中上市\n出订的发行价为14美元\n但是上市前最后一刻\n公司和承销商决定将发行价翻倍\n最终以28美元的价格正式发行\n结果开盘当天股价是一飞冲天\n盘中一度冲到了74.75美元的高位\n收盘停在了58.25美元\n市值被推到了将近30亿美元\n一家還在虧錢的公司,上市首日市值就翻了這麼多倍,網警奇蹟的出現給當時的資本市場帶來的震撼是可想而知的。\n要知道以往像通用动力这样的传统公司\n想要让市值从零发展到接近30亿美元\n需要花上足足43年\n可是网警却只用了一天\n网警的横空出事给华尔街和硅谷\n释放了一个明确的信号\n互联网将像蒸汽机发电机一样改变这个世界\n数以千计的互联网出创公司\n抱着鲤鱼月龙门的念头涌入了这片蓝海\n横穿硅谷的101公路也因此变得愈发拥堵\n光是1999年一年\n美国就有457家公司上市\n纳斯达克几乎天天都在卫星股敲钟\n而在这400多家公司当中\n有308家来自科技行业\n在市值排名前10的公司里\n科技公司把占6席\n互联网当时算是科技股下的一个分支\n本质上是没有太大区别的\n都是在兜售概念\n所以互联网泡沫还有一个别称\n叫做科网泡沫\n不过在当时的那种氛围之下\n并没有人察觉到泡沫的存在\n就连艾龙马斯克都在当时认为\n一个属于王景的时代即将开启\n为了搭上这趟顺风车\n他甚至决定将自己的简历投给安德森\n不过这一份只有宾夕法尼亚大学学士学\n为工作经历并不怎么出彩的简历\n并没能打动王景\n马斯克甚至都没有得到一次面试的机会\n尽管当时的安德森跟马斯克一样\n也只有24岁\n都说时事造英雄\n王景一上市就能呼风唤雨\n离不开特定时代背景的加持\n美国当时正处于冷战结束后的和平红利期\n冷战的结束让国防开支大幅削减\n1998年美国实现了财政盈云\n美债供应随之大幅减少\n大量资金涌入了资本市场\n股市持续高涨\n而互联网的故事恰好在此时应运而生\n也算是解决了大家有钱没处花的难题\n再加上1997年亚洲金融危机爆发\n世界各地的人们都开始涌向美利坚的信息高速公路\n而艾伦·格林斯潘在担任美联储主席期间所实行的放水政策\n也在无形之中为泡沫的生成提供了燃料\n现在我们都知道古神是巴菲特的外号\n但是在当时这个王冠可以戴在任何人的头上\n只要你随便在一个项目的名称前面加上一个E的前缀\n或者是在名称后面加上一个.com的后缀\n就能够轻而易举地拿到数千万美元的融资\n无论这个项目是打算卖宠物用品\n还是把超市里的卫生纸洗衣粉搬到网上去卖\n这都无所谓\n因为市场看中的不是你的水平\n而是你的域名\n那是一个没有市盈率\n只有市盟率的年代\n随便一家互联网公司进入资本市场\n股价都必然会翻着跟头往上涨\n股票暴涨后的结果就是\n不光这些互联网初创公司的老板\n个个都变得富可敌国\n就连这些公司的程序员也跟着一夜暴富\n不因为别的\n就因为他们手里攥着价值数百万美金的期权\n打一个可能不太恰当的比喻\n当时要是华尔街的天上掉下来一块砖\n最终砸中了五个人\n按照概率计算的话\n其中有四个估计是百万富翁\n剩下的那一位则是千万富翁\n后来人们给这批互联网初创公司的员工\n起了个外号叫Paper Millionaire\n翻译成中文叫做纸上的百万富翁\n这纸上百万富翁与真正百万富翁之间的区别\n还是非常大的\n说白了就是财富与货币的区别\n真正的百万复工\n兜里的货币是可以存进银行的\n也是能随时取出来花的\n但是PayPal Millionaire的财富\n大多是难以变现的\n因为这笔钱是存在假设银行里的\n关于财富和货币的区别\n我们再举个例子\n假如说有一家互联网公司\n实际上手上只有1000万美元\n但是资本市场给它的估值\n却高达5亿美元\n乍一看这家公司仿佛凭空\n多出来了4.9亿美元的财富\n可是这4.9亿\n并不是可以随时拿来花的钱呢\n除非这个公司能找到一个冤大头\n愿意按照5亿美元的估值\n把股东手里的股份全部都接走\n要不然这4.9亿\n可能连我们兜里的49块钱都不如\n连超市里的肉蛋奶都买不来\n但在当时没有人愿意思考这一点\n随着E-Trade Ameritrade加信\n这些线上投资平台相继问世\n越来越多的普通人\n都被卷入到了这场洪流之中\n有数据显示\n美国的网上券商账户\n在1998年只有730万个\n但到了2000年就激增至了1740万个\n而危机其实就藏在这些账户当中\n当买菜的大妈站岗的大爷都知道了\n投资互联网稳赚不赔\n纷纷跑步进场的时候\n这场狂欢就已经接近尾声了\n你别说什么美国的大妈大爷了\n就是中国的大妈大爷在当时都蠢蠢欲动了\n因为美国互联网公司的广告都已经打到北京来了\n朴叔在1999年敲打一句歌词就非常能说明问题\n快来吧\n奔腾电脑就让他们代替我来思考\n穿进一把剪心发型呀\n轻松一下Window98\n而要说到引发互联网泡沫魄力的\n直接导火索\n就不得不提王景跟微软之间\n爆发的那场著名的浏览器大战了\n当时的微软是全球市值最高的公司\n是个人电脑PC时代的软件霸主\n而王景则被比作是互联网时代的微软\n王景创始人马克·安德森\n也被称为是下一个比尔盖茨\n其他人怎么想的暂且不论\n至少比尔盖茨本人听到这个称呼\n肯定会不爽\n当王景一炮而红\n抢占了九成的浏览器市场份额之后\n微软方面也马上做出了回应\n他们于1995年8月\n推出了自己的浏览器\nInternet Explorer\n尽管第一版IE浏览器\n相较王景并没有太大的优势\n但是架不住人家采取了\n捆绑销售的营销手段\n你不想买IE浏览器是吧\n可以那你就别用Windows的操作系统了\n在微软的猛烈攻势之下\n王景无力招架\n股价一路狂蟹\n甚至连安德森本人都不得不忍痛抛售自家公司的股票\n1997年忍无可忍的安德森向美国司法部检举\n说微软涉嫌垄断市场\n微软与王景的浏览器大战\n也正式从商业竞争烧到了美国总统的办公桌上\n不久后美国总统比尔克林顿就把司法部带到了微软公司\n在很多人的印象当中\n比尔克林顿和比尔盖茨\n两个人的关系一直都是不错的\n毕竟在罗利岛事件中\n他们还都是爱泼斯坦的座上宾\n不过放到20年前\n这两个大人物也曾剑拔弩张\n1998年5月18日\n美国司法部代表联邦政府\n联合其他19个州的检查机关\n向微软提出了反垄断指控\n比尔盖茨最开始\n根本就没有把这场诉讼放在眼里\n他觉得美国司法部\n根本就不能拿他怎么样\n所以在很长一段时间\n他都没有亲自出庭\n而是通过录像的方式应付庭审\n事后有人统计说\n在1998年8月27日的一场庭审中\n比尔盖茨至少说了40次\n我记不清了\n我不知道了\n我忘记了的台词\n由于这位世界首富面对检察官提问时\n总是一问三不知\n还摆出一副不屑的表情\n所以当时美国媒体在提到他时\n用到次数最多的一个形容词就是傲慢\n而比尔盖茨终究要为他的傲慢付出代价\n2000年4月3日判决正式下达\n出身法官托马斯·杰克逊\n裁定微软违反了谢尔曼法\n也就是美国的反垄断法\n构成了非法垄断\n微软一度面临被拆分的绝境\n虽然微软后来提起上诉\n并且与司法部达成了和解\n承诺向第三方公司公开技术接口\n和规范商业行为\n但当时市场的恐慌情绪\n还是迅速蔓延开来\n人们认为微软的坏消息\n就是科网谷的坏消息\n互联网泡沫就此破裂\n微软反垄断案裁决出路\n当天纳斯达克指数就应声下跌\n约8%创下了跌幅记录\n微软的股价则中错了近15%\n一场科网股的抛售潮由此拉开了序幕\n互聯網泡沫始於1995年8月網警公司上市,納斯達克指數此後一路狂飙。\n從當時不到1000點一路推高到了2000年3月10日收盤的最高點5048.62點。\n同期的标普500指数几乎翻倍\n而在泡沫破裂之后\n全球互联网产业只剩下了一地鸡毛\n近5000家互联网公司陆续倒闭或者是被并购\n到2002年10月\n标普500指数近乎腰斩\n纳斯达克市值下跌了超过75%\n5万亿美元的市值蒸发殆尽\n要知道当时中国全年的GDP总量\n也不过才1万亿美元左右啊\n戳破互联网泡沫的原型\n我们可以总结出来很多个\n它可以是微软暗暗引爆的市场情绪\n可以是2000年1月时任美联储主席格林斯潘\n在纽约经济俱乐部发表的\n抑制股市过热的讲话\n也可以是美联储在上半年的连续加息\n不过事后看来\n引爆泡沫的最主要元凶\n并不是这些外在因素\n而是互联网公司自己\n千禧年时期的互联网公司\n什么都好\n有故事有未来\n有技术有流量\n有知名度唯一有一点不足的是\n他们不知道该如何赚钱\n这一点也是最要命的\n2000年3月纳斯达克见顶后不久\n《八轮周刊》刊登了一篇封面文章\n文章公布了一项令人触目惊心的数据\n说美国371家上市互联网公司的总市值\n已经达到了1.3万亿美元\n但74%的互联网公司现金流为负\n51家公司的现金会在12个月内烧光\n所以这篇文章的标题就叫做烧光\n文章指出大部分互联网企业\n其实都是在靠融资续命的资深造险能力极为有限\n一旦资本市场断供\n大批企业就将坠入深渊\n如果要给这些企业选出一个代表的话\n那么Pets.com显然是再合适不过了\n这家在线宠物用品电商\n曾经在2000年超级晚上\n豪制120万美元投放广告\n让它的名字传遍了整个北美\n名气是打响了\n流量也有了\n但问题是当年的流量根本就不值钱\n没有现在这么多变现手段\n想要赚钱还是只能靠养宠家庭的线上下单\n而当时Pets.com的宠物商品利润率又是低的可怜\n仅有2%到4%\n该成本模式仅在销量达到相当高的水平时\n才能够带来可观的盈利\n大规模的烧钱打广告\n再加上缺乏市场调研\n导致Pets.com一直在做亏本的买卖\n如今回过头来再看\n这家公司从高空俯冲大地的过程\n是相当的惊心动魄\n他们在2000年2月才刚登陆纳斯达克\n但仅仅268天过后便宣布破产\n而在此之前\n他们已经烧掉了约3亿美金的投资资金\n远在大洋彼岸的中国\n当时也是感受到了\n互联网寒冬带来的刺骨寒意\n2000年奉行硅谷模式的国内互联网企业\n像下饺子一样赶着赴美上市\n4月13日新浪迈出了第一步\n网易搜狐紧随其后\n然而当这些中国互联网企业\n在纳斯达克敲钟之后才恍然大悟\n他们并没有抵达新大陆\n而是一头撞上了冰山\n互联网泡沫破裂之后\n三大门户网站同时遭遇重创\n新浪股价从最高的58美元\n跌至了每股1美元左右\n搜狐发行价是每股13美元\n2001年3月跌至了1美元以下\n丁磊更惨\n发行价为15.5美元的网易\n上市首日便跌破了发行价\n此后股价一路雪崩\n2001年7月最低跌至了0.51美元\n9月更是遭遇了停牌\n投股企业尚且如此\n那些还是创业期的小公司更是自身难保了\n即便当时腾讯没有跟着一起赴美上市\n但也因为大环境的恶化而陷入了困境\n马化腾当时甚至险些将OICQ做价60万\n都售给深圳电信数据局\n幸好他后来改了主意\n在那场灾难当中\n就连最资深的投资人也没能独善其身\n哪怕你的名字叫朱里安·罗伯逊\n在上个世纪90年代的华尔街\n罗伯逊曾与巴菲特齐名\n由他一手创办的老虎基金\n一度发展成为了美国最大的对冲基金之一\n巅峰期曾管理200多亿美元的资产\n但是从90年代末开始\n随着老虎基金的一系列投资事务\n罗伯逊逐渐走下了神坛\n无论是押注日元继续贬值\n还是重仓美国航空集团股票\n他全部都看走了眼\n不过在外界看来\n老虎基金在互联网泡沫破裂前\n坚定做空科技股这件事\n才是给罗伯逊的棺材板上\n钉下的最后一颗钉子\n虽然科技股最后真的崩盘了\n但是老虎基金并没有熬到那一天\n最终在黎明到来的前夜\n2000年3月30日轰然倒地\n在当时能跟罗伯逊的老虎基金\n相提并论的对冲基金\n虚致可数\n索罗斯的量子基金算是其中之一\n而量子基金在这场泡沫中的选择\n更加让人玩味\n斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的大名\n如今可以说是无人不小\n他不仅是世界上最成功的\n宏观对冲基金经理人之一\n也是索罗斯为量子基金钦定的接班人\n他的眼光自然是不必多说的\n跟老虎基金一样\n相信理性的量子基金\n同样也是在泡沫堆积期\n做空了大量科技股\n德鲁肯米勒认为市场泡沫过大\n随时可能崩盘\n因此做了价值2亿美元的空头\n但是没有想到\n仅仅几周过后\n这笔交易就让量子基金亏损了6亿美元\n当客户们选择用缴投票\n纷纷从基金撤资时\n德鲁肯米勒选择了低头\n他决定向非理性的市场妥协\n既然打不过那咱就加入吧\n从此成了做多科网谷大军中的一员\n可是讽刺的是\n当他改主意后没多久\n就赶上了科网谷的大崩盘\n量子基金应声大跌22%\n前后这两笔亏损是搞的\n德鲁肯米勒里外不是人\n这位当年缔造了无数投资记录的\n华尔街半神\n最终在修奋之下黯然离职\n关于老虎基金和量子基金的这两段故事\n一位华尔街分析师\n留下过一段相当精辟的总结\n罗伯逊说市场太不合理了\n我不能买科技股\n然后他就被人抬出了市场\n德鲁肯米勒说市场太不合理了\n我只能买科技股\n接着他被一起抬走了\n没有对比就没有伤害\n巴菲特在这场泡沫中的表现\n比起上面两位来说\n可就要高明的多了\n千禧年之前\n巴菲特是华尔街最著名的\n网络股怀疑者之一\n他曾经公开表示\n说看不懂网络股\n强劲涨幅背后的门道\n而常年坚守能力圈\n与现金流原则的巴菲特\n此时的做法也很干脆\n既然我看不懂\n那我就不投\n我既不做多也不做空\n这种相对保守的投资理念\n在当年也给他带来了不少的压力\n1999年年底的时候\n《八轮周刊》曾经发表过一篇文章\n标题就是《卧轮你怎么了》\n意在讽刺巴菲特的投资观念已经过时了\n股山失去了点石成金的魔力\n在多家媒体的口注笔伐之下\n巴菲特不得不在2000年3月发布的股东信中\n进行了自我批评\n他用自嘲的口吻说道\n即使是克鲁索探长\n也能找出去年业绩不佳的罪魁祸首\n就是你们的董事长\n克鲁索探长是喜剧电影粉红爆中的一个糊涂侦探\n定位跟毛利小五郎是差不多的\n不过自嘲归自嘲\n巴菲特可没有像德鲁肯米勒一样\n被市场的风向吹的是东倒西歪\n检讨过后\n他依然故我没有做出任何的改变\n结果就是仅仅一周之后\n人们就听到了互联网泡沫破裂的那一声巨响\n马克吐温曾说\n历史不会重演\n但是会押韵\n虽然互联网泡沫的故事早就画上了句号\n但让人后怕的是\n当今的AI行情在很多方面\n都与当年的互联网泡沫存在着相似之处\n现在网上不少人都说\nAI泡沫是互联网泡沫的翻版\n其实这也是有一定依据的\n首先资本扎堆的投资情绪是相同的\n在如今的資本市場,任何貼上AI Agent、生成是AI標籤的軟件公司都曾經經歷過股價的暴漲。聽起來跟當年互聯網泡沫時期的前綴投資、後綴投資沒有什麼區別。難怪有網友吐槽說,當年火的是,\n科技电信互联网\n现在火的是AI芯片半导体\n好像就是同一个剧本\n只不过换了一波演员\n对于担当主角的AI公司来说\n他们现在有句口号叫做\nAlways AI\nAlways AI\n这个口号与20多年前的那句\nGet Big Fast\n颇有异曲同工之妙\n口号不同\n但本质相同\n都是想通过前期疯狂烧钱\n先把规模做起来赚钱的事\n以后再说\n你或许很难想象\n在互联网泡沫时期\n就连通用电器\n时代华纳福特汽车\n这些跟网络八杆子打不着边的企业\n都想横插一脚\n而现如今从甲骨文到谷歌\n再到Facebook\n从微软到亚马逊再到英伟达\n这些科技巨头也都抱着同样的投资心态\n在AI领域疯狂下注\n因为所有人都相信\n赢家拿走的不仅仅是市场份额\n还有可能是下一代科技世界的话语权\n对于客串群演的普通投资客来说\n别人再买我也要买\n这种将大脑外包给市场的羊群效应\n也与互联网泡沫时期\n散客们追涨沙贴的投资心理别无二致\n如果要将这份心理具象化的话\n那就来看看纳斯达克综合指数的变化曲线吧\n研究机构Bestbook的追踪显示\n自ChatGPT发布以来纳斯达克指数的走势\n竟与当年网警浏览器发布后的走势\n呈现出了不可思议的重叠\n如果AI泡沫真的是互联网泡沫的历史重演的话\n我们可以看到当前的市场正处于1998年的加速上升期\n留给我们逃顶的时间真的是不多了\nBTIG分析师公务部的一份数据\n也得出了相似的结论\n美股当前的热度\n已经超越了互联网泡沫时期\n纳斯达克100指数中表现最好的实质股票\n过去一年的平均涨幅为784%\n无巧不成书的是\n互联网泡沫破裂前的一年里\n该指数中表现最好的实质股票的平均涨幅\n为622%\n另外AI企业估值普遍虚高这一点\n也与当年是如出一辙\nAI巨头Anthropic就是一个典型的例子\n短短几个月之内\n这家公司的估值就从3500亿美元\n飙升至9000亿美元\n如今甚至有人预测\n如果Anthropic能在2026年10月上市的话\n其估值会暴涨到2万亿美元\n美国人上一次看到这么疯狂的估值\n估计还是在The Globe身上\n1998年11月13日\n这家在大学宿舍里成立的互联网公司成功上市\n发行价出定为9美元\n但出人意料的是\n开盘首日盘中最高冲到了97美元\n收盘停在了63.5美元\n首日涨幅约606%\n创下了当时IPO首日涨幅的世界纪录\n可是这样一家市值被炒到了8.4亿美元的\n公司实际营收情况如何呢\nThe Globe当时一年的销售额只有区区270万美元\n净亏损1150万美元\n实际营收和企业估值之间的巨大差距\n在如今不少AI公司上都能看到影子\n关于企业估值方面的问题\n我们还可以参考另一个非常经典的指标\n巴菲特指标\n想要算出这个指标并不难\n其实就是股市总市值除以GDP\n其实到2026年8月这一数值已飙升至238%\n远超了143%的严重高估线\n处于历史极高水平\n这意味着当下美股市场被严重高估了\n巴菲特曾说\n当指标接近200%时\n投资人就是在玩火\n可即便巴菲特指标已经高到了这种地步\nAI泡沫依然还在不断的膨胀\n我们之前提到的循环投资\n就是助推泡沫变大的关键一环\n而说到今天AI圈内的循环投资\n在互联网泡沫时期也同样不乏先例\n当年的朗讯北电这些电信设备商\n就是因为借钱给刚成立的互联网企业\n去买自己的设备\n搞得财报非常的亮眼\n但后来发生的事我们都看到了\n除地的全都走光了\n卖铲子的自然也就没有钱赚了\n更恐怖的一个现实是\n对于如今的科技巨头们来说\n开工是没有回头建的\n在可预见的未来里\n他们对AI的投资还会持续加码\n据高盛估算光是Meta\n微软 亚马逊和Alphabet\n这四家公司的AI总支出\n就将在2023年年底达到5.3万亿美元\n这个数字是个什么概念呢\n它已经超越了日本英国这些国家的GDP\n如果把人工智能支出\n看对一个国家的话\n它将成为世界第四大经济体\n而如果说在之后的某一天\nAI泡沫发生破裂的话\n会带来怎样的连锁反应\n我们可想而知\n不过呢\n大家也不必太过于担心\n历史就一定会在最近两年内重演\n尽管AI泡沫跟互联网泡沫\n有诸多相似之处\n它们的差异点\n也是一只手都数不过来的\n在不少业内人士看来\nAI泡沫和互联网泡沫\n最核心的一个区别\n在于参与企业的盈利能力\n当年的互联网公司\n大多不知道怎么赚钱\n只知道先烧钱抢用户占领市场\n觉得利润以后自然会有\n而反观今天的纳斯达克100指数\n9成以上的成分股\n都实现了净利润为正\n这些成分股大多都属于\n科技互联网以及创新产业\n第二个区别在于融资模式\n所谓融资说白了就是烧钱\n当年那批互联网公司\n烧的大多数都是风头和股民的钱\n而这次AI浪潮烧的钱\n却大部分来自全球最具盈利能力\n财务最稳健的科技巨头的自由现金流\n就这个问题摩根士丹利\n此前曾经对外披露过一个\n令人相当安心的数据\n说当前市场领导者的现金储备\n约为互联网泡沫时期的三倍\n背后的潜台词仿佛是在告诉我们\n现在就担心泡沫破裂为时上涨\n至于AI企业估值虚高的问题\n我们这些局外人也不必太过忧心\n作为衡量企业估值的另一项重要指标\n纳斯达克整体市盈率\n在2000年互联网泡沫顶峰时\n可是一度超过了120倍的\n而这个数据在今天只有42倍\n听到这儿可能有观众要问了\n那这么说来这次是真的不一样了吗\n倒也未必\n毕竟全球投资之父约翰·邓普顿\n早在互联网泡沫开始之前\n就曾经撂下过一句名言\n英语中最昂贵的一句话\n就是这次不一样\n其实在分析AI泡沫和互联网泡沫之前\n我们必须要先搞清楚一个前提\n那就是AI产业有前景\n跟投资AI能赚钱根本就不是一码事\n两者是不能画上等号的\n就像当年互联网泡沫时期\n巴菲特曾经总结的那样\n互联网是革命性的\n正在改变世界\n但这并不代表它是一项好的投资\n换句话说\n互联网技术本身不是泡沫\nAI当然也不是\n有泡沫的是围绕着他们炒作的资本市场\n如果我们把眼光再放得长远一点的话\n泡沫的破裂其实也未必是坏事\n毕竟互联网泡沫破裂之后\n人们也没有回到拨号上网的年代\n反而此后持续享有了互联网普及所带来的成果\n其中的道理是非常简单的\n因为在泡沫破裂之前\n电信公司就已经在华尔街筹来了1.6万亿美金\n铺完了总长8020万英里的光纤电缆\n这占到了美国基础数字布线总数的76%\n泡沫是破裂了\n股民们的钱也都烧光了\n但是基础设施却都完好无损的保留了下来\n继续再往前追溯的话\n回到19世纪40年代英国铁路泡沫时期\n当时英国报纸一半的版面\n刊登的都是铁路公司的募资广告\n只要掏钱认购铁路公司的股票\n就有机会搭上这趟财富的列车\n铁路建设投资一度占到了英国GDP的7%以上\n政府批准的铁路计划里程数\n也达到了一个前所未有的规模\n虽说当年的投资者们大多都血本无归\n但是英国却靠着这轮泡沫完成了工业革命\n人类也由此走进了蒸汽时代\n铁路泡沫互联网\n鐵路泡沫互聯網泡沫的故事邏輯同樣也適用於AI浪潮。也許若干年後,AI也會像美國的光鮮英國的鐵路一樣融入千行百業走進千家萬戶改寫人類歷史。\nAI产业的前景风光无限\n这一点毋庸置疑\n就像电灯取代油灯\n汽车接替马车一样\n但是还是那句话\n各位不要忘了\n这件事跟我们是现在处于1995年\n还是1999年没有任何关系\n2026年5月\n95岁的巴菲特\n照例出席了\n伯克希尔哈萨韦的年度股东大会\n在谈及AI泡沫时\n股身没有留下太多的评语\n只是轻描淡写的说了一句\n我们从来没有见过人们\n像现在这样热衷于赌博\n言下之意不必多说\n可是令人意外的是\n就在同一个月\n伯克希尔对外披露的\n第一季度持仓数据却显示\n公司已经大举增持\nAI巨头谷歌姆公司\nAlphabet的3640万股\n你看看\n就连巴菲特跟他的继任者\n都对AI的态度如此矛盾\n我们这些凡夫俗子\n又怎么能够预料到\n后面几年可能会发生的事呢\n泡沫究竟被吹到多大了\n什么时候会破\n谁都说不准\n但是有一点可以肯定\n那就是泡沫破裂之后\n基础设施不会被一并冲走\n真正优秀的企业\n也大概率不会由此垮掉\n当年亲历了互联网泡沫的\n搜狐掌门人张朝阳\n对于这个话题是很有发言权的\n他说当一片海域\n突然涌进了成百上千名的游泳爱好者\n泡沫就会必然随之产生\n最开始我们不知道\n这些人里面谁的水性最好\n但是时间会验证一切\n一段时间过后\n很多人淹死了\n泡沫也消失了\n最后活下来的自然是水性最好的\n这就是市场经济的必然选择\n回到当年的那场互联网泡沫\n亚马逊无疑是水性最好浅得最深的一个\n白鲸里有一句话特别适合形容创始人贝索斯\n说任何一种鱼都可以浮进水面\n但只有大鲸鱼才能够沉到5英里或者是更深的地方\n互联网泡沫破裂后\n亚马逊的股价从113美元跌至了5.51美元\n跌幅高达95%\n但贝索斯并没有因为股价的波动\n而选择刀枪入库马放南山\n反而继续加码建设仓储物流和技术基础设施\n最终亚马逊走出了这场泡沫\n成长为了全球电商巨头\n而当年那些纸上谈拼的互联网公司早已不知去向了\n现如今亚马逊又一头扎进了这一轮AI泡沫当中\n不知道这一次贝索斯还能不能笑到最后\n在泡沫震荡期很多大企业往往都招不保息\n我们这些普通人就更加如履薄冰了\n相信屏幕前的各位都曾经思考过一个问题\n那就是要是自己的岗位被AI取代了\n我们该怎么办呢\n我想此刻我们唯一能做的就只有保持学习\n学习如何适应满世界都是人工智能的时代\n毕竟人类之所以会从树上跳下来\n学会直立行走\n学会钻木取火\n亲历文明变迁\n最终成为地球的主任\n所仰仗的最重要的一项能力\n不是预测未来的能力\n而是适应世界变化的能力\n好了今天的故事就到这里\n我們下期節目再見囉\n掰掰", "language": "zh", "duration": 2118.33325, "segments": [ { "start": 0.0, "end": 2.5, "text": "Hello大家好,我是小巫,歡迎來到東托邦。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18000609209748353, "no_speech_prob": 8.968944510689969e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 2.5, "end": 6.0, "text": "科技起點這個詞,相信大家這幾年都聽膩了。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18000609209748353, "no_speech_prob": 8.968944510689969e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 6.0, "end": 11.0, "text": "而提到起點到來的時間,很多人可能會一口重生的說2027年。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18000609209748353, "no_speech_prob": 8.968944510689969e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 11.0, "end": 17.0, "text": "原因是2024年的時候,有一份據稱是OpenAI機密文件的資料在網上流傳。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18000609209748353, "no_speech_prob": 8.968944510689969e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 17.0, "end": 23.0, "text": "資料顯示,OpenAI將於2027年創造出能像人類一樣思考和學習,", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18000609209748353, "no_speech_prob": 8.968944510689969e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 23.0, "end": 27.0, "text": "具有自主意識和情感的通用人工智能AGI。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18000609209748353, "no_speech_prob": 8.968944510689969e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 27.0, "end": 29.18, "text": "几年前我们在资料流出的第一时间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 29.18, "end": 32.46, "text": "就做视频详细聊了人工智能的前世今生", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 32.46, "end": 34.52, "text": "以及为何人工智能将是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 34.52, "end": 36.94, "text": "引爆下一个科技起点的关键技术", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 36.94, "end": 38.64, "text": "这里就不做过多的赘述了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 38.64, "end": 41.18, "text": "不过最近却有不少经济学家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 41.18, "end": 43.64, "text": "和科技界的学者公开预警说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 43.64, "end": 46.52, "text": "2027年不会是AGI崛起的生日", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 46.52, "end": 49.14, "text": "反而可能是AI泡沫破裂的忌日", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 49.14, "end": 51.92, "text": "今天我们就来聊聊AI是否存在泡沫", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 51.92, "end": 52.82, "text": "如果存在的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 52.82, "end": 55.6, "text": "今天的AI泡沫与20多年前的互联网泡", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.056106205990439965, "no_speech_prob": 2.0041641957124767e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3323529411764705 }, { "start": 55.6, "end": 57.1, "text": "有哪些雷同之处", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 57.1, "end": 59.58, "text": "当年的历史是否会在今天重演", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 59.58, "end": 61.64, "text": "为什么说这次不一样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 61.64, "end": 63.78, "text": "是金融史上最昂贵的谎言", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 63.78, "end": 65.62, "text": "巴菲特又为什么会觉得", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 65.62, "end": 68.16, "text": "如今的美股市场像是一座赌场呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 68.16, "end": 69.08, "text": "灾难来袭时", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 69.08, "end": 70.8, "text": "普通人该如何自保呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08628244400024414, "no_speech_prob": 3.6619561549766644e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.164179104477612 }, { "start": 85.6, "end": 89.0, "text": "在网上吹哨经济危机即将到来的专家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 89.0, "end": 89.88, "text": "是不胜美举", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 89.88, "end": 91.74, "text": "我们来看几个数据大家就明白了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 91.74, "end": 92.9, "text": "先说美股", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 92.9, "end": 95.96, "text": "AI相关股票目前已经占到标普500", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 95.96, "end": 97.76, "text": "总市值的大约45%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 97.76, "end": 100.86, "text": "华尔街投行杰夫瑞公司的研究表明", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 100.86, "end": 103.24, "text": "如果完全剔除AI板块的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 103.24, "end": 105.82, "text": "标普500今年仅上涨了2%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 105.82, "end": 108.76, "text": "美股市场对AI的仰仗程度可见一斑", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 108.76, "end": 111.84, "text": "其实不光是美股被AI绑架了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 111.84, "end": 114.32, "text": "连同整个美国的经济都是如此", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09550717602605405, "no_speech_prob": 1.9072890836135947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2633228840125392 }, { "start": 114.32, "end": 117.32, "text": "根据牛津经济研究院经济学家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 117.32, "end": 118.78, "text": "迈克尔皮尔斯的估算", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 118.78, "end": 121.38, "text": "美国目前约三分之一的经济增长", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 121.38, "end": 122.88, "text": "也都全拜AI所赐", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 122.88, "end": 126.46, "text": "为什么最近几年与AI产业相关的财经数据", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 126.46, "end": 127.86, "text": "都显得这么夸张呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 127.86, "end": 129.76, "text": "抛开资本逐利的本质不谈", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 129.76, "end": 131.08, "text": "还有一个重要原因是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 131.08, "end": 133.14, "text": "AI公司之间的循环融资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 133.14, "end": 135.38, "text": "他们靠着左脚踩右脚", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 135.38, "end": 137.74, "text": "就可以不断的做大账面规模", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 137.74, "end": 139.54, "text": "什么是循环融资呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 139.54, "end": 142.0, "text": "简单来说就是A公司投资了B公司", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05797674655914307, "no_speech_prob": 1.1989090276109948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3146417445482865 }, { "start": 142.0, "end": 145.34, "text": "B公司有了钱再去买A公司的产品和服务", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 145.34, "end": 146.94, "text": "以往业界对循环融资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 146.94, "end": 149.08, "text": "还有一种称呼叫做厂商融资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 149.08, "end": 151.98, "text": "这种现象在当年互联网泡沫时期", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 151.98, "end": 153.18, "text": "也是十分常见的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 153.18, "end": 155.42, "text": "我再举一个通俗的例子大家就懂了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 155.42, "end": 157.84, "text": "好比我是一个咖啡机供应商", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 157.84, "end": 159.54, "text": "听说你想开一家咖啡店", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 159.54, "end": 160.6, "text": "我就借钱给你", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 160.6, "end": 162.94, "text": "你有了钱就可以从我这里买咖啡机了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 162.94, "end": 164.14, "text": "而有了咖啡机", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 164.14, "end": 165.56, "text": "咖啡店就能开起来了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 165.56, "end": 167.3, "text": "你靠卖咖啡赚到了钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 167.3, "end": 168.62, "text": "不但能还上借款", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 168.62, "end": 170.42, "text": "还能继续在我这买咖啡机", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05135754903157552, "no_speech_prob": 1.502868489378084e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4564564564564564 }, { "start": 170.42, "end": 171.24, "text": "继续开店", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 171.24, "end": 172.64, "text": "大致就是这么一个逻辑", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 172.64, "end": 175.06, "text": "而具体到目前的AI产业", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 175.06, "end": 177.2, "text": "就是芯片商或者是云端方", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 177.2, "end": 178.86, "text": "出钱投资模型公司", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 178.86, "end": 180.22, "text": "模型公司有了钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 180.22, "end": 182.36, "text": "在反手购买芯片商的芯片", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 182.36, "end": 183.86, "text": "租用云端方的云端", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 183.86, "end": 186.76, "text": "动辄千亿美元级别的巨额投资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 186.76, "end": 188.56, "text": "看起来是非常唬人的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 188.56, "end": 190.72, "text": "但其实就是在几个AI巨头的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 190.72, "end": 192.98, "text": "资产负债表里面闪转腾挪", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 192.98, "end": 194.56, "text": "明眼人都看得出来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 194.56, "end": 197.18, "text": "一旦这段咬合严密的链条上的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 197.18, "end": 198.76, "text": "任何一个环节出现松动", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0594906944494981, "no_speech_prob": 1.8031416637587228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3616352201257862 }, { "start": 198.76, "end": 200.9, "text": "都有可能带来多米诺股牌效应", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 200.9, "end": 202.66, "text": "不论是美国股市市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 202.66, "end": 203.8, "text": "还是美国经济", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 203.8, "end": 206.36, "text": "如今都是在头部AI公司的领跑下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 206.36, "end": 207.22, "text": "猛脸狂奔", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 207.22, "end": 209.38, "text": "路上随便一颗小石子", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 209.38, "end": 210.92, "text": "就能够戳破泡沫", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 210.92, "end": 212.18, "text": "引爆金融海啸", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 212.18, "end": 214.7, "text": "这颗石子可能是美国的债务危机", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 214.7, "end": 216.6, "text": "毕竟美债现在已经突破了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 216.6, "end": 218.26, "text": "39万亿美元大关", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 218.26, "end": 220.98, "text": "占GDP的比重超过了100%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 220.98, "end": 223.82, "text": "而国际公认的安全线是60%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 223.82, "end": 225.78, "text": "也可能是中美之间的大国角力", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 225.78, "end": 227.3, "text": "这让美国无法停下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06707914710649984, "no_speech_prob": 1.1614447251173665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2597014925373133 }, { "start": 227.3, "end": 229.4, "text": "对AI产业加码推进的脚步", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 229.4, "end": 232.16, "text": "认为AI泡沫终将在最近几年内", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 232.16, "end": 234.16, "text": "破裂的投资圈大佬不在少数", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 234.16, "end": 236.46, "text": "但关于泡沫破裂的具体时间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 236.46, "end": 237.92, "text": "他们的看法却各有不同", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 237.92, "end": 240.44, "text": "比如说海银资本创始人王玉权", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 240.44, "end": 243.0, "text": "就认为根据以往的历史经验判断", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 243.0, "end": 245.54, "text": "AI泡沫破裂的时间不是在2027年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 245.54, "end": 246.72, "text": "而是在2029年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 246.72, "end": 254.12, "text": "相较之下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 254.12, "end": 256.42, "text": "穆迪分析近期发布的一份报告", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08706954411097935, "no_speech_prob": 1.6577161518482875e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640845070422535 }, { "start": 256.42, "end": 258.86, "text": "给出的预测显得要更加严峻了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 258.86, "end": 261.32, "text": "报告显示AI泡沫破裂的时间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 261.32, "end": 263.94, "text": "或许就在2026年的某个季度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 263.94, "end": 266.78, "text": "一旦AI产业的营收增速不及预期", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 266.78, "end": 270.3, "text": "恐慌性抛售就将导致股市暴跌25%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 270.3, "end": 273.06, "text": "20万亿美元的市值也将随之蒸发", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 273.06, "end": 275.82, "text": "同样桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 275.82, "end": 278.0, "text": "也不止一次的表达过他的担忧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 278.0, "end": 279.94, "text": "在他看来泡沫破裂的窗口", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 279.94, "end": 282.44, "text": "应该是在美国中期选举之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 282.44, "end": 284.66, "text": "到新一届总统宣誓就职之前", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06739233548824604, "no_speech_prob": 1.3852642991030173e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2522522522522523 }, { "start": 284.66, "end": 288.28, "text": "具体来说就是2026年11月到2029年1月之间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 288.28, "end": 289.52, "text": "他给出的理由是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 289.52, "end": 293.28, "text": "一旦关于富豪税或者是未实现资本利得税的提案", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 293.28, "end": 294.24, "text": "在国会冒头", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 294.24, "end": 298.02, "text": "大量投部AI公司的持股人为了规避潜在的重税", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 298.02, "end": 300.02, "text": "就会陆续套现离场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 300.02, "end": 302.24, "text": "届时经济危机便如期而至", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 302.24, "end": 305.4, "text": "定大空投主角的原型曾经预言了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 305.4, "end": 308.48, "text": "2008年美国次贷危机的麦克尔·伯里", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 308.48, "end": 312.74, "text": "也同样认为当下美股市场正处于重大逆转的边缘", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07930999053151984, "no_speech_prob": 1.2125034483390085e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2462462462462462 }, { "start": 312.74, "end": 315.86, "text": "眼下的情形让他联想到了2000年互联网泡沫", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 315.86, "end": 318.86, "text": "尽管博里最近几年的名声不太好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 318.86, "end": 321.44, "text": "他长期对市场做出悲观的预测", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 321.44, "end": 322.46, "text": "却屡屡落空", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 322.46, "end": 325.8, "text": "甚至被外界戏称为那个总喊狼来了的男孩", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 325.8, "end": 328.46, "text": "不过他也坚信狼只是现在没来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 328.46, "end": 330.18, "text": "并不代表这头狼不存在", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 330.18, "end": 332.7, "text": "博里给出的预测是AI泡沫", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 332.7, "end": 334.28, "text": "随时都有可能破裂", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 334.28, "end": 336.32, "text": "无论是持续的美衣冲突", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 336.32, "end": 337.9, "text": "还是油价暴涨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 337.9, "end": 340.08, "text": "亦或是私人信贷市场的风险", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 340.08, "end": 342.58, "text": "都有可能成为击垮美股的临门一角", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.066136810267083, "no_speech_prob": 2.0375709799957953e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3114285714285714 }, { "start": 342.58, "end": 345.42, "text": "美国银行分析师迈克尔哈特尼特", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 345.42, "end": 346.74, "text": "也持相同的观点", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 346.74, "end": 348.94, "text": "他认为当前市场的投机行情", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 348.94, "end": 350.12, "text": "或许尚未结束", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 350.12, "end": 352.72, "text": "但种种迹象都表明拐点正在临近", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 352.72, "end": 354.48, "text": "他做出这个判断的依据", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 354.48, "end": 357.24, "text": "是在2026年5月的最后一个交易时", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 357.24, "end": 360.08, "text": "标普500创下了收盘历史新高", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 360.08, "end": 363.36, "text": "但在20只创下历史新高的成分股中", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 363.36, "end": 366.16, "text": "只有7只与AI没有直接的关联", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 366.16, "end": 369.06, "text": "这一现象与26年前互联网泡沫", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 369.06, "end": 371.68, "text": "顶峰时期的市场特征高度相似", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0613770940195975, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069604856170592e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2896341463414633 }, { "start": 371.68, "end": 372.94, "text": "说到这儿", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 372.94, "end": 374.8, "text": "相信不少观众都会心生疑问", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 374.8, "end": 376.94, "text": "为什么这么多专家都将AI泡沫", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 376.94, "end": 379.04, "text": "与当年的互联网泡沫相提并论", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 379.04, "end": 381.8, "text": "当年的惨况是否真的会重演", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 381.8, "end": 382.96, "text": "各位先别着急", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 382.96, "end": 385.54, "text": "接下来让我们把时间拨回到千禧年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 385.54, "end": 388.58, "text": "看看当年的互联网泡沫究竟是怎么一回事", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 388.58, "end": 394.0, "text": "说到千禧年互联网泡沫的起点", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 394.0, "end": 395.52, "text": "有一个人我们不得不齐", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 395.52, "end": 398.96, "text": "他就是世界上第一款成功商业化的浏览器", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 398.96, "end": 400.2, "text": "网警的发明人", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06816818700969549, "no_speech_prob": 1.275944974676868e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3920265780730896 }, { "start": 400.2, "end": 403.64, "text": "有着互联网点火人之称的马克·安德森", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 403.64, "end": 407.58, "text": "他的名气远没有比尔盖茨乔布斯那么如雷冠啊", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 407.58, "end": 409.94, "text": "就连扎克伯格在跟他握手之前", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 409.94, "end": 411.6, "text": "都不知道他以前是干啥的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 411.6, "end": 414.16, "text": "但这并不妨碍安德森后来成为了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 414.16, "end": 416.32, "text": "扎克伯格创业路上的重要导师", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 416.32, "end": 422.4, "text": "1992年还是伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳香槟分校计算机专业再读生的安德森", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 422.4, "end": 426.78, "text": "利用课余时间在学校里的国家超级计算机应用中心打工", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 426.78, "end": 429.66, "text": "这份工作让他第一次接触到了互联网", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07382004994612473, "no_speech_prob": 1.6901841037864074e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3267605633802817 }, { "start": 429.66, "end": 432.82, "text": "很快这位大学生便嗅到了浏览器", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 432.82, "end": 434.2, "text": "在未来的巨大商机", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 434.2, "end": 436.56, "text": "于是和同伴们一起捣鼓出了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 436.56, "end": 439.46, "text": "全球首个加入图像元素的浏览器", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 439.46, "end": 441.32, "text": "最初命名为马赛克", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 441.32, "end": 442.74, "text": "后来更名为王景", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 442.74, "end": 444.38, "text": "谁都没有想到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 444.38, "end": 446.02, "text": "这款大学生的客鱼作品", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 446.02, "end": 447.4, "text": "会在短短几年后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 447.4, "end": 449.24, "text": "垄断整个浏览器市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 449.24, "end": 451.26, "text": "占据了九成以上的市场份额", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 451.26, "end": 453.36, "text": "1995年8月9日", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 453.36, "end": 454.62, "text": "仅仅成立16个月", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 454.62, "end": 456.64, "text": "还没有实现盈利的王景公司", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 456.64, "end": 458.26, "text": "在纳斯达克桥中上市", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06952701123232768, "no_speech_prob": 1.226459645647937e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 458.26, "end": 460.72, "text": "出订的发行价为14美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 460.72, "end": 462.5, "text": "但是上市前最后一刻", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 462.5, "end": 465.54, "text": "公司和承销商决定将发行价翻倍", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 465.54, "end": 468.44, "text": "最终以28美元的价格正式发行", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 468.44, "end": 471.76, "text": "结果开盘当天股价是一飞冲天", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 471.76, "end": 475.02, "text": "盘中一度冲到了74.75美元的高位", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 475.02, "end": 477.24, "text": "收盘停在了58.25美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 477.24, "end": 479.78, "text": "市值被推到了将近30亿美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06503958780257428, "no_speech_prob": 1.1794593947345167e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2706422018348624 }, { "start": 482.72, "end": 492.2, "text": "一家還在虧錢的公司,上市首日市值就翻了這麼多倍,網警奇蹟的出現給當時的資本市場帶來的震撼是可想而知的。", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15740484940378288, "no_speech_prob": 9.406119980126526e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2712418300653594 }, { "start": 492.2, "end": 495.74, "text": "要知道以往像通用动力这样的传统公司", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 495.74, "end": 498.72, "text": "想要让市值从零发展到接近30亿美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 498.72, "end": 500.58, "text": "需要花上足足43年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 500.58, "end": 502.72, "text": "可是网警却只用了一天", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 502.72, "end": 505.5, "text": "网警的横空出事给华尔街和硅谷", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 505.5, "end": 507.04, "text": "释放了一个明确的信号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 507.04, "end": 510.66, "text": "互联网将像蒸汽机发电机一样改变这个世界", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 510.66, "end": 513.12, "text": "数以千计的互联网出创公司", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 513.12, "end": 516.3, "text": "抱着鲤鱼月龙门的念头涌入了这片蓝海", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 516.3, "end": 520.04, "text": "横穿硅谷的101公路也因此变得愈发拥堵", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06890833438971104, "no_speech_prob": 1.6067255165230776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2861538461538462 }, { "start": 520.04, "end": 522.16, "text": "光是1999年一年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 522.16, "end": 524.74, "text": "美国就有457家公司上市", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 524.74, "end": 527.64, "text": "纳斯达克几乎天天都在卫星股敲钟", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 527.64, "end": 529.86, "text": "而在这400多家公司当中", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 529.86, "end": 532.12, "text": "有308家来自科技行业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 532.12, "end": 534.64, "text": "在市值排名前10的公司里", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 534.64, "end": 536.26, "text": "科技公司把占6席", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 536.26, "end": 539.54, "text": "互联网当时算是科技股下的一个分支", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 539.54, "end": 541.28, "text": "本质上是没有太大区别的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 541.28, "end": 542.64, "text": "都是在兜售概念", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 542.64, "end": 544.84, "text": "所以互联网泡沫还有一个别称", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 544.84, "end": 546.04, "text": "叫做科网泡沫", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 546.04, "end": 548.26, "text": "不过在当时的那种氛围之下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060171898375166226, "no_speech_prob": 1.1258110763079365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3377926421404682 }, { "start": 548.26, "end": 550.3, "text": "并没有人察觉到泡沫的存在", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 550.3, "end": 552.54, "text": "就连艾龙马斯克都在当时认为", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 552.54, "end": 555.06, "text": "一个属于王景的时代即将开启", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 555.06, "end": 556.8, "text": "为了搭上这趟顺风车", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 556.8, "end": 559.54, "text": "他甚至决定将自己的简历投给安德森", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 559.54, "end": 562.72, "text": "不过这一份只有宾夕法尼亚大学学士学", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 562.72, "end": 564.96, "text": "为工作经历并不怎么出彩的简历", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 564.96, "end": 566.52, "text": "并没能打动王景", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 566.52, "end": 569.92, "text": "马斯克甚至都没有得到一次面试的机会", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 569.92, "end": 572.38, "text": "尽管当时的安德森跟马斯克一样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 572.38, "end": 573.54, "text": "也只有24岁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 573.54, "end": 575.4, "text": "都说时事造英雄", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 575.4, "end": 577.38, "text": "王景一上市就能呼风唤雨", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06485903551037185, "no_speech_prob": 1.5820752694017948e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3850746268656717 }, { "start": 577.38, "end": 579.5, "text": "离不开特定时代背景的加持", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 579.5, "end": 583.06, "text": "美国当时正处于冷战结束后的和平红利期", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 583.06, "end": 585.56, "text": "冷战的结束让国防开支大幅削减", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 585.56, "end": 588.32, "text": "1998年美国实现了财政盈云", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 588.32, "end": 590.22, "text": "美债供应随之大幅减少", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 590.22, "end": 592.06, "text": "大量资金涌入了资本市场", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 592.06, "end": 593.7, "text": "股市持续高涨", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 593.7, "end": 596.48, "text": "而互联网的故事恰好在此时应运而生", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 596.48, "end": 599.2, "text": "也算是解决了大家有钱没处花的难题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 599.2, "end": 602.44, "text": "再加上1997年亚洲金融危机爆发", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 602.44, "end": 605.94, "text": "世界各地的人们都开始涌向美利坚的信息高速公路", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.047973819807464, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454310144629279e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2939481268011528 }, { "start": 605.94, "end": 610.64, "text": "而艾伦·格林斯潘在担任美联储主席期间所实行的放水政策", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 610.64, "end": 613.6, "text": "也在无形之中为泡沫的生成提供了燃料", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 613.6, "end": 616.94, "text": "现在我们都知道古神是巴菲特的外号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 616.94, "end": 620.16, "text": "但是在当时这个王冠可以戴在任何人的头上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 620.16, "end": 624.48, "text": "只要你随便在一个项目的名称前面加上一个E的前缀", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 624.48, "end": 627.46, "text": "或者是在名称后面加上一个.com的后缀", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 627.46, "end": 630.46, "text": "就能够轻而易举地拿到数千万美元的融资", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 630.46, "end": 633.1, "text": "无论这个项目是打算卖宠物用品", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05921456634357412, "no_speech_prob": 1.5026244137850142e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3049853372434017 }, { "start": 633.1, "end": 636.3, "text": "还是把超市里的卫生纸洗衣粉搬到网上去卖", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 636.3, "end": 637.04, "text": "这都无所谓", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 637.04, "end": 639.48, "text": "因为市场看中的不是你的水平", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 639.48, "end": 640.5, "text": "而是你的域名", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 640.5, "end": 642.38, "text": "那是一个没有市盈率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 642.38, "end": 643.88, "text": "只有市盟率的年代", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 643.88, "end": 646.48, "text": "随便一家互联网公司进入资本市场", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 646.48, "end": 649.02, "text": "股价都必然会翻着跟头往上涨", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 649.02, "end": 651.36, "text": "股票暴涨后的结果就是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 651.36, "end": 653.86, "text": "不光这些互联网初创公司的老板", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 653.86, "end": 655.44, "text": "个个都变得富可敌国", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 655.44, "end": 658.02, "text": "就连这些公司的程序员也跟着一夜暴富", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 658.02, "end": 658.9, "text": "不因为别的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 658.9, "end": 662.0, "text": "就因为他们手里攥着价值数百万美金的期权", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06201713330277773, "no_speech_prob": 1.489840022184108e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4005763688760806 }, { "start": 662.0, "end": 664.2, "text": "打一个可能不太恰当的比喻", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 664.2, "end": 666.96, "text": "当时要是华尔街的天上掉下来一块砖", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 666.96, "end": 668.48, "text": "最终砸中了五个人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 668.48, "end": 669.94, "text": "按照概率计算的话", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 669.94, "end": 671.88, "text": "其中有四个估计是百万富翁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 671.88, "end": 674.28, "text": "剩下的那一位则是千万富翁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 674.28, "end": 677.52, "text": "后来人们给这批互联网初创公司的员工", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 677.52, "end": 679.58, "text": "起了个外号叫Paper Millionaire", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 679.58, "end": 682.3, "text": "翻译成中文叫做纸上的百万富翁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 682.3, "end": 686.0, "text": "这纸上百万富翁与真正百万富翁之间的区别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 686.0, "end": 687.04, "text": "还是非常大的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 687.04, "end": 689.96, "text": "说白了就是财富与货币的区别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08217005514020297, "no_speech_prob": 1.3581856993238883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 689.96, "end": 691.8, "text": "真正的百万复工", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 691.8, "end": 693.88, "text": "兜里的货币是可以存进银行的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 693.88, "end": 695.84, "text": "也是能随时取出来花的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 695.84, "end": 697.88, "text": "但是PayPal Millionaire的财富", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 697.88, "end": 699.42, "text": "大多是难以变现的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 699.42, "end": 702.18, "text": "因为这笔钱是存在假设银行里的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 702.18, "end": 704.32, "text": "关于财富和货币的区别", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 704.32, "end": 705.62, "text": "我们再举个例子", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 705.62, "end": 707.12, "text": "假如说有一家互联网公司", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 707.12, "end": 709.12, "text": "实际上手上只有1000万美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 709.12, "end": 710.88, "text": "但是资本市场给它的估值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 710.88, "end": 712.28, "text": "却高达5亿美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 712.28, "end": 714.56, "text": "乍一看这家公司仿佛凭空", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 714.56, "end": 716.46, "text": "多出来了4.9亿美元的财富", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 716.46, "end": 718.3, "text": "可是这4.9亿", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06628573118750729, "no_speech_prob": 1.3113468644299076e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.286549707602339 }, { "start": 718.3, "end": 720.3, "text": "并不是可以随时拿来花的钱呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 720.3, "end": 722.36, "text": "除非这个公司能找到一个冤大头", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 722.36, "end": 724.1, "text": "愿意按照5亿美元的估值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 724.1, "end": 726.2, "text": "把股东手里的股份全部都接走", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 726.2, "end": 727.64, "text": "要不然这4.9亿", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 727.64, "end": 730.0, "text": "可能连我们兜里的49块钱都不如", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 730.0, "end": 732.14, "text": "连超市里的肉蛋奶都买不来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 732.14, "end": 734.8, "text": "但在当时没有人愿意思考这一点", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 734.8, "end": 737.1, "text": "随着E-Trade Ameritrade加信", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 737.1, "end": 739.5, "text": "这些线上投资平台相继问世", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 739.5, "end": 740.94, "text": "越来越多的普通人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 740.94, "end": 742.8, "text": "都被卷入到了这场洪流之中", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 742.8, "end": 743.98, "text": "有数据显示", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 743.98, "end": 745.6, "text": "美国的网上券商账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 745.6, "end": 748.04, "text": "在1998年只有730万个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05960914323914726, "no_speech_prob": 1.842108236782547e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2333333333333334 }, { "start": 748.04, "end": 751.62, "text": "但到了2000年就激增至了1740万个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 751.62, "end": 754.86, "text": "而危机其实就藏在这些账户当中", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 754.86, "end": 757.74, "text": "当买菜的大妈站岗的大爷都知道了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 757.74, "end": 759.52, "text": "投资互联网稳赚不赔", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 759.52, "end": 761.08, "text": "纷纷跑步进场的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 761.08, "end": 763.4, "text": "这场狂欢就已经接近尾声了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 763.4, "end": 765.86, "text": "你别说什么美国的大妈大爷了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 765.86, "end": 768.96, "text": "就是中国的大妈大爷在当时都蠢蠢欲动了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 768.96, "end": 772.3, "text": "因为美国互联网公司的广告都已经打到北京来了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 772.3, "end": 776.56, "text": "朴叔在1999年敲打一句歌词就非常能说明问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10193873754615992, "no_speech_prob": 1.3478704263825136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3457943925233644 }, { "start": 776.56, "end": 777.5, "text": "快来吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 777.5, "end": 780.02, "text": "奔腾电脑就让他们代替我来思考", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 780.02, "end": 781.92, "text": "穿进一把剪心发型呀", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 781.92, "end": 783.4, "text": "轻松一下Window98", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 783.4, "end": 786.16, "text": "而要说到引发互联网泡沫魄力的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 786.16, "end": 787.02, "text": "直接导火索", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 787.02, "end": 789.26, "text": "就不得不提王景跟微软之间", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 789.26, "end": 791.74, "text": "爆发的那场著名的浏览器大战了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 791.74, "end": 794.66, "text": "当时的微软是全球市值最高的公司", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 794.66, "end": 797.44, "text": "是个人电脑PC时代的软件霸主", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 797.44, "end": 800.62, "text": "而王景则被比作是互联网时代的微软", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 800.62, "end": 802.66, "text": "王景创始人马克·安德森", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 802.66, "end": 804.54, "text": "也被称为是下一个比尔盖茨", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08474992648721329, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316793848194841e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2743362831858407 }, { "start": 804.54, "end": 807.22, "text": "其他人怎么想的暂且不论", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 807.22, "end": 809.38, "text": "至少比尔盖茨本人听到这个称呼", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 809.38, "end": 810.22, "text": "肯定会不爽", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 810.22, "end": 811.9, "text": "当王景一炮而红", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 811.9, "end": 814.56, "text": "抢占了九成的浏览器市场份额之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 814.56, "end": 816.6, "text": "微软方面也马上做出了回应", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 816.6, "end": 818.48, "text": "他们于1995年8月", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 818.48, "end": 820.14, "text": "推出了自己的浏览器", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 820.14, "end": 821.42, "text": "Internet Explorer", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 821.42, "end": 823.88, "text": "尽管第一版IE浏览器", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 823.88, "end": 825.9, "text": "相较王景并没有太大的优势", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 825.9, "end": 827.46, "text": "但是架不住人家采取了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 827.46, "end": 829.28, "text": "捆绑销售的营销手段", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 829.28, "end": 831.18, "text": "你不想买IE浏览器是吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 831.18, "end": 833.56, "text": "可以那你就别用Windows的操作系统了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05727217642314126, "no_speech_prob": 1.3584073969841182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2261580381471389 }, { "start": 833.56, "end": 835.74, "text": "在微软的猛烈攻势之下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 835.74, "end": 836.96, "text": "王景无力招架", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 836.96, "end": 838.3, "text": "股价一路狂蟹", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 838.3, "end": 842.46, "text": "甚至连安德森本人都不得不忍痛抛售自家公司的股票", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 842.46, "end": 846.94, "text": "1997年忍无可忍的安德森向美国司法部检举", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 846.94, "end": 848.88, "text": "说微软涉嫌垄断市场", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 848.88, "end": 850.92, "text": "微软与王景的浏览器大战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 850.92, "end": 854.62, "text": "也正式从商业竞争烧到了美国总统的办公桌上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 854.62, "end": 858.92, "text": "不久后美国总统比尔克林顿就把司法部带到了微软公司", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 858.92, "end": 860.96, "text": "在很多人的印象当中", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07067346812492639, "no_speech_prob": 1.473963485987273e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3498349834983498 }, { "start": 860.96, "end": 862.58, "text": "比尔克林顿和比尔盖茨", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 862.58, "end": 864.5, "text": "两个人的关系一直都是不错的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 864.5, "end": 866.14, "text": "毕竟在罗利岛事件中", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 866.14, "end": 868.1, "text": "他们还都是爱泼斯坦的座上宾", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 868.1, "end": 869.78, "text": "不过放到20年前", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 869.78, "end": 871.88, "text": "这两个大人物也曾剑拔弩张", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 871.88, "end": 873.94, "text": "1998年5月18日", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 873.94, "end": 875.98, "text": "美国司法部代表联邦政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 875.98, "end": 878.58, "text": "联合其他19个州的检查机关", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 878.58, "end": 880.62, "text": "向微软提出了反垄断指控", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 880.62, "end": 882.0, "text": "比尔盖茨最开始", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 882.0, "end": 884.24, "text": "根本就没有把这场诉讼放在眼里", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 884.24, "end": 885.46, "text": "他觉得美国司法部", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 885.46, "end": 886.78, "text": "根本就不能拿他怎么样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 886.78, "end": 888.88, "text": "所以在很长一段时间", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 888.88, "end": 890.3, "text": "他都没有亲自出庭", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06803084336794339, "no_speech_prob": 1.790637256526839e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 890.3, "end": 892.68, "text": "而是通过录像的方式应付庭审", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 892.68, "end": 894.2, "text": "事后有人统计说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 894.2, "end": 897.0, "text": "在1998年8月27日的一场庭审中", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 897.0, "end": 899.04, "text": "比尔盖茨至少说了40次", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 899.04, "end": 899.92, "text": "我记不清了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 899.92, "end": 900.72, "text": "我不知道了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 900.72, "end": 902.02, "text": "我忘记了的台词", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 902.02, "end": 905.08, "text": "由于这位世界首富面对检察官提问时", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 905.08, "end": 906.38, "text": "总是一问三不知", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 906.38, "end": 908.24, "text": "还摆出一副不屑的表情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 908.24, "end": 910.36, "text": "所以当时美国媒体在提到他时", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 910.36, "end": 912.92, "text": "用到次数最多的一个形容词就是傲慢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 912.92, "end": 916.4, "text": "而比尔盖茨终究要为他的傲慢付出代价", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 916.4, "end": 919.24, "text": "2000年4月3日判决正式下达", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06282627582550049, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011135571727728e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3070175438596492 }, { "start": 919.24, "end": 921.38, "text": "出身法官托马斯·杰克逊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 921.38, "end": 923.7, "text": "裁定微软违反了谢尔曼法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 923.7, "end": 925.38, "text": "也就是美国的反垄断法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 925.38, "end": 926.86, "text": "构成了非法垄断", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 926.86, "end": 929.4, "text": "微软一度面临被拆分的绝境", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 929.4, "end": 931.68, "text": "虽然微软后来提起上诉", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 931.68, "end": 933.52, "text": "并且与司法部达成了和解", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 933.52, "end": 936.14, "text": "承诺向第三方公司公开技术接口", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 936.14, "end": 937.3, "text": "和规范商业行为", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 937.3, "end": 939.28, "text": "但当时市场的恐慌情绪", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 939.28, "end": 940.84, "text": "还是迅速蔓延开来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 940.84, "end": 942.94, "text": "人们认为微软的坏消息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 942.94, "end": 944.7, "text": "就是科网谷的坏消息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 944.7, "end": 946.2, "text": "互联网泡沫就此破裂", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05363635592990451, "no_speech_prob": 1.6510362521593436e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3393393393393394 }, { "start": 946.2, "end": 948.46, "text": "微软反垄断案裁决出路", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09559167560778166, "no_speech_prob": 1.2408384215956136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0797546012269938 }, { "start": 948.46, "end": 950.88, "text": "当天纳斯达克指数就应声下跌", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09559167560778166, "no_speech_prob": 1.2408384215956136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0797546012269938 }, { "start": 950.88, "end": 952.9, "text": "约8%创下了跌幅记录", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09559167560778166, "no_speech_prob": 1.2408384215956136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0797546012269938 }, { "start": 952.9, "end": 956.14, "text": "微软的股价则中错了近15%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09559167560778166, "no_speech_prob": 1.2408384215956136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0797546012269938 }, { "start": 956.14, "end": 959.1, "text": "一场科网股的抛售潮由此拉开了序幕", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09559167560778166, "no_speech_prob": 1.2408384215956136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0797546012269938 }, { "start": 960.0, "end": 965.3, "text": "互聯網泡沫始於1995年8月網警公司上市,納斯達克指數此後一路狂飙。", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15329073243221994, "no_speech_prob": 9.15467961853933e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2937293729372936 }, { "start": 965.3, "end": 972.7, "text": "從當時不到1000點一路推高到了2000年3月10日收盤的最高點5048.62點。", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15329073243221994, "no_speech_prob": 9.15467961853933e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2937293729372936 }, { "start": 972.7, "end": 975.54, "text": "同期的标普500指数几乎翻倍", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 975.54, "end": 977.3, "text": "而在泡沫破裂之后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 977.3, "end": 980.12, "text": "全球互联网产业只剩下了一地鸡毛", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 980.12, "end": 984.32, "text": "近5000家互联网公司陆续倒闭或者是被并购", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 984.32, "end": 986.04, "text": "到2002年10月", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 986.04, "end": 988.12, "text": "标普500指数近乎腰斩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 988.12, "end": 991.04, "text": "纳斯达克市值下跌了超过75%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 991.04, "end": 993.92, "text": "5万亿美元的市值蒸发殆尽", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 993.92, "end": 996.92, "text": "要知道当时中国全年的GDP总量", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 996.92, "end": 999.22, "text": "也不过才1万亿美元左右啊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 999.22, "end": 1001.46, "text": "戳破互联网泡沫的原型", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06488553426598989, "no_speech_prob": 1.3156486317056348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2668918918918919 }, { "start": 1001.46, "end": 1003.22, "text": "我们可以总结出来很多个", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1003.22, "end": 1006.04, "text": "它可以是微软暗暗引爆的市场情绪", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1006.04, "end": 1009.78, "text": "可以是2000年1月时任美联储主席格林斯潘", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1009.78, "end": 1011.96, "text": "在纽约经济俱乐部发表的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1011.96, "end": 1013.62, "text": "抑制股市过热的讲话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1013.62, "end": 1016.62, "text": "也可以是美联储在上半年的连续加息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1016.62, "end": 1018.34, "text": "不过事后看来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1018.34, "end": 1020.14, "text": "引爆泡沫的最主要元凶", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1020.14, "end": 1021.74, "text": "并不是这些外在因素", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1021.74, "end": 1023.36, "text": "而是互联网公司自己", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1023.36, "end": 1028.28, "text": "千禧年时期的互联网公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1028.28, "end": 1029.0, "text": "什么都好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1029.0, "end": 1029.98, "text": "有故事有未来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1029.98, "end": 1031.12, "text": "有技术有流量", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07188254908511513, "no_speech_prob": 1.7097882137884213e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3482428115015974 }, { "start": 1031.12, "end": 1033.7, "text": "有知名度唯一有一点不足的是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1033.7, "end": 1035.56, "text": "他们不知道该如何赚钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1035.56, "end": 1037.1, "text": "这一点也是最要命的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1037.1, "end": 1040.0, "text": "2000年3月纳斯达克见顶后不久", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1040.0, "end": 1042.3, "text": "《八轮周刊》刊登了一篇封面文章", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1042.3, "end": 1045.5, "text": "文章公布了一项令人触目惊心的数据", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1045.5, "end": 1048.66, "text": "说美国371家上市互联网公司的总市值", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1048.66, "end": 1050.62, "text": "已经达到了1.3万亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1050.62, "end": 1053.74, "text": "但74%的互联网公司现金流为负", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1053.74, "end": 1056.9, "text": "51家公司的现金会在12个月内烧光", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1056.9, "end": 1059.58, "text": "所以这篇文章的标题就叫做烧光", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0593330885234632, "no_speech_prob": 1.3260684217364371e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3159509202453987 }, { "start": 1059.58, "end": 1062.04, "text": "文章指出大部分互联网企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1062.04, "end": 1065.94, "text": "其实都是在靠融资续命的资深造险能力极为有限", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1065.94, "end": 1067.66, "text": "一旦资本市场断供", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1067.66, "end": 1069.62, "text": "大批企业就将坠入深渊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1069.62, "end": 1072.22, "text": "如果要给这些企业选出一个代表的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1072.22, "end": 1074.84, "text": "那么Pets.com显然是再合适不过了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1074.84, "end": 1077.14, "text": "这家在线宠物用品电商", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1077.14, "end": 1078.98, "text": "曾经在2000年超级晚上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1078.98, "end": 1081.62, "text": "豪制120万美元投放广告", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1081.62, "end": 1083.88, "text": "让它的名字传遍了整个北美", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1083.88, "end": 1085.64, "text": "名气是打响了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1085.64, "end": 1086.54, "text": "流量也有了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1086.54, "end": 1088.96, "text": "但问题是当年的流量根本就不值钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.057850494384765624, "no_speech_prob": 1.285195994765731e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2299168975069252 }, { "start": 1088.96, "end": 1091.02, "text": "没有现在这么多变现手段", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1091.02, "end": 1094.62, "text": "想要赚钱还是只能靠养宠家庭的线上下单", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1094.62, "end": 1098.76, "text": "而当时Pets.com的宠物商品利润率又是低的可怜", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1098.76, "end": 1101.06, "text": "仅有2%到4%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1101.06, "end": 1104.62, "text": "该成本模式仅在销量达到相当高的水平时", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1104.62, "end": 1106.28, "text": "才能够带来可观的盈利", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1106.28, "end": 1108.38, "text": "大规模的烧钱打广告", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1108.38, "end": 1109.94, "text": "再加上缺乏市场调研", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1109.94, "end": 1112.74, "text": "导致Pets.com一直在做亏本的买卖", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1112.74, "end": 1114.82, "text": "如今回过头来再看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1114.82, "end": 1117.5, "text": "这家公司从高空俯冲大地的过程", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0589841039557206, "no_speech_prob": 1.246311213953799e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2205438066465257 }, { "start": 1117.5, "end": 1119.08, "text": "是相当的惊心动魄", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1119.08, "end": 1122.5, "text": "他们在2000年2月才刚登陆纳斯达克", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1122.5, "end": 1125.62, "text": "但仅仅268天过后便宣布破产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1125.62, "end": 1126.6, "text": "而在此之前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1126.6, "end": 1129.6, "text": "他们已经烧掉了约3亿美金的投资资金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1129.6, "end": 1131.54, "text": "远在大洋彼岸的中国", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1131.54, "end": 1132.76, "text": "当时也是感受到了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1132.76, "end": 1134.9, "text": "互联网寒冬带来的刺骨寒意", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1134.9, "end": 1138.28, "text": "2000年奉行硅谷模式的国内互联网企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1138.28, "end": 1140.42, "text": "像下饺子一样赶着赴美上市", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1140.42, "end": 1142.98, "text": "4月13日新浪迈出了第一步", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1142.98, "end": 1144.64, "text": "网易搜狐紧随其后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1144.64, "end": 1147.02, "text": "然而当这些中国互联网企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05860655396072953, "no_speech_prob": 1.5633948996507385e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2886904761904763 }, { "start": 1147.02, "end": 1149.44, "text": "在纳斯达克敲钟之后才恍然大悟", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1149.44, "end": 1151.12, "text": "他们并没有抵达新大陆", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1151.12, "end": 1152.54, "text": "而是一头撞上了冰山", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1152.54, "end": 1154.44, "text": "互联网泡沫破裂之后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1154.44, "end": 1156.88, "text": "三大门户网站同时遭遇重创", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1156.88, "end": 1159.3, "text": "新浪股价从最高的58美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1159.3, "end": 1161.26, "text": "跌至了每股1美元左右", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1161.26, "end": 1163.94, "text": "搜狐发行价是每股13美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1163.94, "end": 1166.72, "text": "2001年3月跌至了1美元以下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1166.72, "end": 1167.84, "text": "丁磊更惨", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1167.84, "end": 1170.18, "text": "发行价为15.5美元的网易", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1170.18, "end": 1172.94, "text": "上市首日便跌破了发行价", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1172.94, "end": 1174.56, "text": "此后股价一路雪崩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0533170122088808, "no_speech_prob": 1.8930921066862005e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3208191126279865 }, { "start": 1174.56, "end": 1177.68, "text": "2001年7月最低跌至了0.51美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1177.68, "end": 1179.44, "text": "9月更是遭遇了停牌", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1179.44, "end": 1181.56, "text": "投股企业尚且如此", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1181.56, "end": 1184.84, "text": "那些还是创业期的小公司更是自身难保了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1184.84, "end": 1187.68, "text": "即便当时腾讯没有跟着一起赴美上市", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1187.68, "end": 1190.34, "text": "但也因为大环境的恶化而陷入了困境", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1190.34, "end": 1194.38, "text": "马化腾当时甚至险些将OICQ做价60万", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1194.38, "end": 1196.4, "text": "都售给深圳电信数据局", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1196.4, "end": 1198.86, "text": "幸好他后来改了主意", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1198.86, "end": 1200.08, "text": "在那场灾难当中", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1200.08, "end": 1203.0, "text": "就连最资深的投资人也没能独善其身", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07266008093001995, "no_speech_prob": 1.251518159939291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2119402985074628 }, { "start": 1203.0, "end": 1205.54, "text": "哪怕你的名字叫朱里安·罗伯逊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1205.54, "end": 1207.88, "text": "在上个世纪90年代的华尔街", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1207.88, "end": 1209.84, "text": "罗伯逊曾与巴菲特齐名", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1209.84, "end": 1211.78, "text": "由他一手创办的老虎基金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1211.78, "end": 1214.8, "text": "一度发展成为了美国最大的对冲基金之一", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1214.8, "end": 1217.78, "text": "巅峰期曾管理200多亿美元的资产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1217.78, "end": 1219.72, "text": "但是从90年代末开始", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1219.72, "end": 1221.98, "text": "随着老虎基金的一系列投资事务", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1221.98, "end": 1223.84, "text": "罗伯逊逐渐走下了神坛", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1223.84, "end": 1226.08, "text": "无论是押注日元继续贬值", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1226.08, "end": 1228.4, "text": "还是重仓美国航空集团股票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1228.4, "end": 1229.72, "text": "他全部都看走了眼", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1229.72, "end": 1231.48, "text": "不过在外界看来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05642274883686084, "no_speech_prob": 1.3014578997827542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3224852071005917 }, { "start": 1231.48, "end": 1233.44, "text": "老虎基金在互联网泡沫破裂前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1233.44, "end": 1235.42, "text": "坚定做空科技股这件事", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1235.42, "end": 1237.3, "text": "才是给罗伯逊的棺材板上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1237.3, "end": 1239.22, "text": "钉下的最后一颗钉子", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1239.22, "end": 1241.32, "text": "虽然科技股最后真的崩盘了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1241.32, "end": 1243.42, "text": "但是老虎基金并没有熬到那一天", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1243.42, "end": 1245.68, "text": "最终在黎明到来的前夜", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1245.68, "end": 1247.68, "text": "2000年3月30日轰然倒地", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1247.68, "end": 1250.58, "text": "在当时能跟罗伯逊的老虎基金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1250.58, "end": 1252.1, "text": "相提并论的对冲基金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1252.1, "end": 1253.06, "text": "虚致可数", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1253.06, "end": 1255.64, "text": "索罗斯的量子基金算是其中之一", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1255.64, "end": 1257.92, "text": "而量子基金在这场泡沫中的选择", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1257.92, "end": 1259.06, "text": "更加让人玩味", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0690604231092665, "no_speech_prob": 1.742959943040745e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.391566265060241 }, { "start": 1259.06, "end": 1261.28, "text": "斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的大名", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1261.28, "end": 1263.02, "text": "如今可以说是无人不小", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1263.02, "end": 1265.4, "text": "他不仅是世界上最成功的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1265.4, "end": 1267.8, "text": "宏观对冲基金经理人之一", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1267.8, "end": 1270.9, "text": "也是索罗斯为量子基金钦定的接班人", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1270.9, "end": 1273.52, "text": "他的眼光自然是不必多说的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1273.52, "end": 1274.72, "text": "跟老虎基金一样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1274.72, "end": 1276.28, "text": "相信理性的量子基金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1276.28, "end": 1278.12, "text": "同样也是在泡沫堆积期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1278.12, "end": 1279.7, "text": "做空了大量科技股", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1279.7, "end": 1282.48, "text": "德鲁肯米勒认为市场泡沫过大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1282.48, "end": 1283.64, "text": "随时可能崩盘", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1283.64, "end": 1286.4, "text": "因此做了价值2亿美元的空头", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1286.4, "end": 1287.5, "text": "但是没有想到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1287.5, "end": 1288.74, "text": "仅仅几周过后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07675536006104712, "no_speech_prob": 1.4016073891787162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3628048780487805 }, { "start": 1288.74, "end": 1291.5, "text": "这笔交易就让量子基金亏损了6亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1291.5, "end": 1293.76, "text": "当客户们选择用缴投票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1293.76, "end": 1295.44, "text": "纷纷从基金撤资时", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1295.44, "end": 1297.36, "text": "德鲁肯米勒选择了低头", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1297.36, "end": 1299.58, "text": "他决定向非理性的市场妥协", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1299.58, "end": 1301.64, "text": "既然打不过那咱就加入吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1301.64, "end": 1304.7, "text": "从此成了做多科网谷大军中的一员", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1304.7, "end": 1306.32, "text": "可是讽刺的是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1306.32, "end": 1308.12, "text": "当他改主意后没多久", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1308.12, "end": 1310.18, "text": "就赶上了科网谷的大崩盘", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1310.18, "end": 1313.28, "text": "量子基金应声大跌22%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1313.28, "end": 1314.98, "text": "前后这两笔亏损是搞的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1314.98, "end": 1316.64, "text": "德鲁肯米勒里外不是人", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0844864003798541, "no_speech_prob": 1.4511785002835342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3121019108280254 }, { "start": 1316.64, "end": 1319.52, "text": "这位当年缔造了无数投资记录的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1319.52, "end": 1320.5, "text": "华尔街半神", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1320.5, "end": 1322.58, "text": "最终在修奋之下黯然离职", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1322.58, "end": 1325.6, "text": "关于老虎基金和量子基金的这两段故事", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1325.6, "end": 1326.84, "text": "一位华尔街分析师", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1326.84, "end": 1328.9, "text": "留下过一段相当精辟的总结", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1328.9, "end": 1331.08, "text": "罗伯逊说市场太不合理了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1331.08, "end": 1332.06, "text": "我不能买科技股", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1332.06, "end": 1333.72, "text": "然后他就被人抬出了市场", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1333.72, "end": 1336.02, "text": "德鲁肯米勒说市场太不合理了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1336.02, "end": 1337.14, "text": "我只能买科技股", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1337.14, "end": 1338.6, "text": "接着他被一起抬走了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1338.6, "end": 1340.72, "text": "没有对比就没有伤害", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1340.72, "end": 1342.78, "text": "巴菲特在这场泡沫中的表现", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1342.78, "end": 1344.02, "text": "比起上面两位来说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1344.02, "end": 1345.22, "text": "可就要高明的多了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07097489251030815, "no_speech_prob": 1.551087903950421e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4178674351585014 }, { "start": 1345.22, "end": 1346.3, "text": "千禧年之前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1346.3, "end": 1348.38, "text": "巴菲特是华尔街最著名的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1348.38, "end": 1349.82, "text": "网络股怀疑者之一", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1349.82, "end": 1351.46, "text": "他曾经公开表示", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1351.46, "end": 1352.76, "text": "说看不懂网络股", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1352.76, "end": 1354.36, "text": "强劲涨幅背后的门道", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1354.36, "end": 1356.36, "text": "而常年坚守能力圈", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1356.36, "end": 1358.06, "text": "与现金流原则的巴菲特", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1358.06, "end": 1359.74, "text": "此时的做法也很干脆", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1359.74, "end": 1361.42, "text": "既然我看不懂", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1361.42, "end": 1362.1, "text": "那我就不投", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1362.1, "end": 1363.64, "text": "我既不做多也不做空", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1363.64, "end": 1365.66, "text": "这种相对保守的投资理念", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1365.66, "end": 1368.02, "text": "在当年也给他带来了不少的压力", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1368.02, "end": 1369.88, "text": "1999年年底的时候", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1369.88, "end": 1372.18, "text": "《八轮周刊》曾经发表过一篇文章", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1372.18, "end": 1374.46, "text": "标题就是《卧轮你怎么了》", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0774029360877143, "no_speech_prob": 1.5747065110205405e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "start": 1374.46, "end": 1377.4, "text": "意在讽刺巴菲特的投资观念已经过时了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1377.4, "end": 1379.68, "text": "股山失去了点石成金的魔力", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1379.68, "end": 1381.96, "text": "在多家媒体的口注笔伐之下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1381.96, "end": 1385.24, "text": "巴菲特不得不在2000年3月发布的股东信中", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1385.24, "end": 1386.32, "text": "进行了自我批评", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1386.32, "end": 1388.26, "text": "他用自嘲的口吻说道", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1388.26, "end": 1390.0, "text": "即使是克鲁索探长", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1390.0, "end": 1392.48, "text": "也能找出去年业绩不佳的罪魁祸首", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1392.48, "end": 1393.62, "text": "就是你们的董事长", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1393.62, "end": 1397.8, "text": "克鲁索探长是喜剧电影粉红爆中的一个糊涂侦探", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1397.8, "end": 1399.96, "text": "定位跟毛利小五郎是差不多的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1399.96, "end": 1401.8, "text": "不过自嘲归自嘲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1401.8, "end": 1404.0, "text": "巴菲特可没有像德鲁肯米勒一样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0815284252166748, "no_speech_prob": 2.095269964474955e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3314917127071824 }, { "start": 1404.0, "end": 1406.24, "text": "被市场的风向吹的是东倒西歪", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1406.24, "end": 1407.14, "text": "检讨过后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1407.14, "end": 1409.96, "text": "他依然故我没有做出任何的改变", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1409.96, "end": 1411.94, "text": "结果就是仅仅一周之后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1411.94, "end": 1414.78, "text": "人们就听到了互联网泡沫破裂的那一声巨响", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1414.78, "end": 1416.54, "text": "马克吐温曾说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1416.54, "end": 1417.58, "text": "历史不会重演", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1417.58, "end": 1418.48, "text": "但是会押韵", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1418.48, "end": 1421.54, "text": "虽然互联网泡沫的故事早就画上了句号", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1421.54, "end": 1422.62, "text": "但让人后怕的是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1422.62, "end": 1425.16, "text": "当今的AI行情在很多方面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1425.16, "end": 1427.76, "text": "都与当年的互联网泡沫存在着相似之处", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1430.68, "end": 1432.22, "text": "现在网上不少人都说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07698922381975264, "no_speech_prob": 1.6897256163717067e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3365695792880259 }, { "start": 1432.22, "end": 1434.52, "text": "AI泡沫是互联网泡沫的翻版", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07010266564109109, "no_speech_prob": 8.236685639095853e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9576271186440678 }, { "start": 1434.52, "end": 1436.2, "text": "其实这也是有一定依据的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07010266564109109, "no_speech_prob": 8.236685639095853e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9576271186440678 }, { "start": 1436.2, "end": 1439.44, "text": "首先资本扎堆的投资情绪是相同的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07010266564109109, "no_speech_prob": 8.236685639095853e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.9576271186440678 }, { "start": 1440.0, "end": 1454.98, "text": "在如今的資本市場,任何貼上AI Agent、生成是AI標籤的軟件公司都曾經經歷過股價的暴漲。聽起來跟當年互聯網泡沫時期的前綴投資、後綴投資沒有什麼區別。難怪有網友吐槽說,當年火的是,", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1519466669131548, "no_speech_prob": 9.514065750504397e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.289902280130293 }, { "start": 1454.98, "end": 1456.5, "text": "科技电信互联网", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1456.5, "end": 1458.7, "text": "现在火的是AI芯片半导体", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1458.7, "end": 1460.16, "text": "好像就是同一个剧本", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1460.16, "end": 1461.44, "text": "只不过换了一波演员", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1461.44, "end": 1463.86, "text": "对于担当主角的AI公司来说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1463.86, "end": 1465.6, "text": "他们现在有句口号叫做", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1465.6, "end": 1466.48, "text": "Always AI", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1466.48, "end": 1467.3, "text": "Always AI", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1467.3, "end": 1469.6, "text": "这个口号与20多年前的那句", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1469.6, "end": 1470.54, "text": "Get Big Fast", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1470.54, "end": 1472.24, "text": "颇有异曲同工之妙", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1472.24, "end": 1473.58, "text": "口号不同", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1473.58, "end": 1474.52, "text": "但本质相同", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1474.52, "end": 1476.62, "text": "都是想通过前期疯狂烧钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1476.62, "end": 1478.46, "text": "先把规模做起来赚钱的事", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1478.46, "end": 1479.24, "text": "以后再说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1479.24, "end": 1481.04, "text": "你或许很难想象", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1481.04, "end": 1482.36, "text": "在互联网泡沫时期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1482.36, "end": 1483.68, "text": "就连通用电器", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09916946141406743, "no_speech_prob": 3.3727048931453396e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.21875 }, { "start": 1483.68, "end": 1485.5, "text": "时代华纳福特汽车", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1485.5, "end": 1488.1, "text": "这些跟网络八杆子打不着边的企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1488.1, "end": 1489.84, "text": "都想横插一脚", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1489.84, "end": 1491.72, "text": "而现如今从甲骨文到谷歌", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1491.72, "end": 1492.42, "text": "再到Facebook", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1492.42, "end": 1494.62, "text": "从微软到亚马逊再到英伟达", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1494.62, "end": 1497.74, "text": "这些科技巨头也都抱着同样的投资心态", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1497.74, "end": 1499.54, "text": "在AI领域疯狂下注", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1499.54, "end": 1501.44, "text": "因为所有人都相信", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1501.44, "end": 1503.68, "text": "赢家拿走的不仅仅是市场份额", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1503.68, "end": 1506.32, "text": "还有可能是下一代科技世界的话语权", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1506.32, "end": 1509.48, "text": "对于客串群演的普通投资客来说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1509.48, "end": 1510.86, "text": "别人再买我也要买", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1510.86, "end": 1513.58, "text": "这种将大脑外包给市场的羊群效应", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06681290022823788, "no_speech_prob": 1.4971697492871527e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2393617021276595 }, { "start": 1513.58, "end": 1515.36, "text": "也与互联网泡沫时期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1515.36, "end": 1518.3, "text": "散客们追涨沙贴的投资心理别无二致", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1518.3, "end": 1521.1, "text": "如果要将这份心理具象化的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1521.1, "end": 1524.22, "text": "那就来看看纳斯达克综合指数的变化曲线吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1524.22, "end": 1526.88, "text": "研究机构Bestbook的追踪显示", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1526.88, "end": 1530.34, "text": "自ChatGPT发布以来纳斯达克指数的走势", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1530.34, "end": 1533.6, "text": "竟与当年网警浏览器发布后的走势", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1533.6, "end": 1535.62, "text": "呈现出了不可思议的重叠", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1535.62, "end": 1539.0, "text": "如果AI泡沫真的是互联网泡沫的历史重演的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1539.0, "end": 1543.22, "text": "我们可以看到当前的市场正处于1998年的加速上升期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06398252798960759, "no_speech_prob": 1.4510641820064674e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2929577464788733 }, { "start": 1543.22, "end": 1545.62, "text": "留给我们逃顶的时间真的是不多了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1545.62, "end": 1548.2, "text": "BTIG分析师公务部的一份数据", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1548.2, "end": 1549.64, "text": "也得出了相似的结论", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1549.64, "end": 1551.16, "text": "美股当前的热度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1551.16, "end": 1553.04, "text": "已经超越了互联网泡沫时期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1553.04, "end": 1556.24, "text": "纳斯达克100指数中表现最好的实质股票", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1556.24, "end": 1560.06, "text": "过去一年的平均涨幅为784%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1560.06, "end": 1561.2, "text": "无巧不成书的是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1561.2, "end": 1563.38, "text": "互联网泡沫破裂前的一年里", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1563.38, "end": 1566.94, "text": "该指数中表现最好的实质股票的平均涨幅", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1566.94, "end": 1568.42, "text": "为622%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1568.42, "end": 1571.82, "text": "另外AI企业估值普遍虚高这一点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07530414996369515, "no_speech_prob": 1.1574917239964844e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.353135313531353 }, { "start": 1571.82, "end": 1573.5, "text": "也与当年是如出一辙", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1573.5, "end": 1576.54, "text": "AI巨头Anthropic就是一个典型的例子", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1576.54, "end": 1577.54, "text": "短短几个月之内", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1577.54, "end": 1580.2, "text": "这家公司的估值就从3500亿美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1580.2, "end": 1582.06, "text": "飙升至9000亿美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1582.06, "end": 1583.78, "text": "如今甚至有人预测", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1583.78, "end": 1586.72, "text": "如果Anthropic能在2026年10月上市的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1586.72, "end": 1588.88, "text": "其估值会暴涨到2万亿美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1588.88, "end": 1592.06, "text": "美国人上一次看到这么疯狂的估值", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1592.06, "end": 1593.98, "text": "估计还是在The Globe身上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1593.98, "end": 1596.52, "text": "1998年11月13日", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1596.52, "end": 1600.0, "text": "这家在大学宿舍里成立的互联网公司成功上市", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05598067183520913, "no_speech_prob": 1.1082677310592093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2546012269938651 }, { "start": 1600.0, "end": 1602.06, "text": "发行价出定为9美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1602.06, "end": 1603.26, "text": "但出人意料的是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1603.26, "end": 1606.6, "text": "开盘首日盘中最高冲到了97美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1606.6, "end": 1609.16, "text": "收盘停在了63.5美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1609.16, "end": 1611.84, "text": "首日涨幅约606%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1611.84, "end": 1615.24, "text": "创下了当时IPO首日涨幅的世界纪录", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1615.24, "end": 1618.84, "text": "可是这样一家市值被炒到了8.4亿美元的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1618.84, "end": 1621.04, "text": "公司实际营收情况如何呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1621.04, "end": 1624.8, "text": "The Globe当时一年的销售额只有区区270万美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1624.8, "end": 1627.1, "text": "净亏损1150万美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08966415179403205, "no_speech_prob": 1.0324243196468963e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.206405693950178 }, { "start": 1627.1, "end": 1630.6, "text": "实际营收和企业估值之间的巨大差距", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1630.6, "end": 1633.18, "text": "在如今不少AI公司上都能看到影子", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1633.18, "end": 1635.22, "text": "关于企业估值方面的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1635.22, "end": 1637.7, "text": "我们还可以参考另一个非常经典的指标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1637.7, "end": 1638.72, "text": "巴菲特指标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1638.72, "end": 1640.7, "text": "想要算出这个指标并不难", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1640.7, "end": 1643.34, "text": "其实就是股市总市值除以GDP", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1643.34, "end": 1647.88, "text": "其实到2026年8月这一数值已飙升至238%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1647.88, "end": 1651.16, "text": "远超了143%的严重高估线", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1651.16, "end": 1652.84, "text": "处于历史极高水平", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1652.84, "end": 1655.92, "text": "这意味着当下美股市场被严重高估了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1655.92, "end": 1656.92, "text": "巴菲特曾说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.05806782579174931, "no_speech_prob": 1.2315620745440015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2754491017964071 }, { "start": 1656.92, "end": 1658.92, "text": "当指标接近200%时", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1658.92, "end": 1660.26, "text": "投资人就是在玩火", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1660.26, "end": 1663.76, "text": "可即便巴菲特指标已经高到了这种地步", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1663.76, "end": 1665.9, "text": "AI泡沫依然还在不断的膨胀", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1665.9, "end": 1667.8, "text": "我们之前提到的循环投资", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1667.8, "end": 1670.36, "text": "就是助推泡沫变大的关键一环", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1670.36, "end": 1673.04, "text": "而说到今天AI圈内的循环投资", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1673.04, "end": 1675.9, "text": "在互联网泡沫时期也同样不乏先例", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1675.9, "end": 1678.62, "text": "当年的朗讯北电这些电信设备商", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1678.62, "end": 1681.26, "text": "就是因为借钱给刚成立的互联网企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1681.26, "end": 1682.26, "text": "去买自己的设备", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1682.26, "end": 1684.04, "text": "搞得财报非常的亮眼", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1684.04, "end": 1686.58, "text": "但后来发生的事我们都看到了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.053373768216087705, "no_speech_prob": 1.3115104488536922e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.344927536231884 }, { "start": 1686.58, "end": 1688.02, "text": "除地的全都走光了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1688.02, "end": 1690.08, "text": "卖铲子的自然也就没有钱赚了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1690.08, "end": 1691.8, "text": "更恐怖的一个现实是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1691.8, "end": 1693.82, "text": "对于如今的科技巨头们来说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1693.82, "end": 1695.8, "text": "开工是没有回头建的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1695.8, "end": 1697.14, "text": "在可预见的未来里", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1697.14, "end": 1699.68, "text": "他们对AI的投资还会持续加码", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1699.68, "end": 1701.44, "text": "据高盛估算光是Meta", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1701.44, "end": 1703.12, "text": "微软 亚马逊和Alphabet", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1703.12, "end": 1705.4, "text": "这四家公司的AI总支出", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1705.4, "end": 1708.94, "text": "就将在2023年年底达到5.3万亿美元", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1708.94, "end": 1710.82, "text": "这个数字是个什么概念呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1710.82, "end": 1713.58, "text": "它已经超越了日本英国这些国家的GDP", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1713.58, "end": 1715.54, "text": "如果把人工智能支出", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10410275061925252, "no_speech_prob": 2.1500220007131254e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.192 }, { "start": 1715.54, "end": 1716.78, "text": "看对一个国家的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1716.78, "end": 1718.94, "text": "它将成为世界第四大经济体", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1718.94, "end": 1721.26, "text": "而如果说在之后的某一天", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1721.26, "end": 1722.88, "text": "AI泡沫发生破裂的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1722.88, "end": 1724.78, "text": "会带来怎样的连锁反应", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1724.78, "end": 1725.68, "text": "我们可想而知", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1725.68, "end": 1726.54, "text": "不过呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1726.54, "end": 1728.16, "text": "大家也不必太过于担心", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1728.16, "end": 1730.78, "text": "历史就一定会在最近两年内重演", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1730.78, "end": 1732.92, "text": "尽管AI泡沫跟互联网泡沫", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1732.92, "end": 1734.2, "text": "有诸多相似之处", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1734.2, "end": 1735.16, "text": "它们的差异点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1735.16, "end": 1736.82, "text": "也是一只手都数不过来的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1736.82, "end": 1741.24, "text": "在不少业内人士看来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1741.24, "end": 1742.68, "text": "AI泡沫和互联网泡沫", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1742.68, "end": 1743.88, "text": "最核心的一个区别", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06082990061697648, "no_speech_prob": 1.3199933333873926e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.361904761904762 }, { "start": 1743.88, "end": 1745.8, "text": "在于参与企业的盈利能力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1745.8, "end": 1747.24, "text": "当年的互联网公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1747.24, "end": 1748.5, "text": "大多不知道怎么赚钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1748.5, "end": 1750.98, "text": "只知道先烧钱抢用户占领市场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1750.98, "end": 1752.68, "text": "觉得利润以后自然会有", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1752.68, "end": 1755.22, "text": "而反观今天的纳斯达克100指数", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1755.22, "end": 1756.62, "text": "9成以上的成分股", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1756.62, "end": 1758.4, "text": "都实现了净利润为正", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1758.4, "end": 1760.42, "text": "这些成分股大多都属于", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1760.42, "end": 1762.92, "text": "科技互联网以及创新产业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1762.92, "end": 1764.62, "text": "第二个区别在于融资模式", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1764.62, "end": 1766.36, "text": "所谓融资说白了就是烧钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1766.36, "end": 1767.8, "text": "当年那批互联网公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1767.8, "end": 1770.18, "text": "烧的大多数都是风头和股民的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1770.18, "end": 1772.12, "text": "而这次AI浪潮烧的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06148003007723316, "no_speech_prob": 1.7220048303956403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3757396449704142 }, { "start": 1772.12, "end": 1774.94, "text": "却大部分来自全球最具盈利能力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1774.94, "end": 1777.94, "text": "财务最稳健的科技巨头的自由现金流", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1777.94, "end": 1779.78, "text": "就这个问题摩根士丹利", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1779.78, "end": 1781.6, "text": "此前曾经对外披露过一个", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1781.6, "end": 1783.48, "text": "令人相当安心的数据", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1783.48, "end": 1785.84, "text": "说当前市场领导者的现金储备", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1785.84, "end": 1787.88, "text": "约为互联网泡沫时期的三倍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1787.88, "end": 1790.54, "text": "背后的潜台词仿佛是在告诉我们", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1790.54, "end": 1793.02, "text": "现在就担心泡沫破裂为时上涨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1793.02, "end": 1795.66, "text": "至于AI企业估值虚高的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1795.66, "end": 1797.8, "text": "我们这些局外人也不必太过忧心", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1797.8, "end": 1800.6, "text": "作为衡量企业估值的另一项重要指标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.04684665770757766, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030417882533342e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2985915492957747 }, { "start": 1800.6, "end": 1802.18, "text": "纳斯达克整体市盈率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1802.18, "end": 1804.26, "text": "在2000年互联网泡沫顶峰时", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1804.26, "end": 1806.12, "text": "可是一度超过了120倍的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1806.12, "end": 1808.5, "text": "而这个数据在今天只有42倍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1808.5, "end": 1810.86, "text": "听到这儿可能有观众要问了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1810.86, "end": 1813.04, "text": "那这么说来这次是真的不一样了吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1813.04, "end": 1813.98, "text": "倒也未必", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1813.98, "end": 1817.0, "text": "毕竟全球投资之父约翰·邓普顿", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1817.0, "end": 1819.0, "text": "早在互联网泡沫开始之前", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1819.0, "end": 1820.68, "text": "就曾经撂下过一句名言", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1820.68, "end": 1822.48, "text": "英语中最昂贵的一句话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1822.48, "end": 1823.62, "text": "就是这次不一样", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1823.62, "end": 1826.68, "text": "其实在分析AI泡沫和互联网泡沫之前", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1826.68, "end": 1828.78, "text": "我们必须要先搞清楚一个前提", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1828.78, "end": 1830.56, "text": "那就是AI产业有前景", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06330037335737036, "no_speech_prob": 1.5030520231218425e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3425414364640884 }, { "start": 1830.56, "end": 1833.5, "text": "跟投资AI能赚钱根本就不是一码事", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1833.5, "end": 1835.44, "text": "两者是不能画上等号的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1835.44, "end": 1837.68, "text": "就像当年互联网泡沫时期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1837.68, "end": 1839.4, "text": "巴菲特曾经总结的那样", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1839.4, "end": 1840.98, "text": "互联网是革命性的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1840.98, "end": 1841.98, "text": "正在改变世界", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1841.98, "end": 1844.98, "text": "但这并不代表它是一项好的投资", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1844.98, "end": 1845.72, "text": "换句话说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1845.72, "end": 1847.5, "text": "互联网技术本身不是泡沫", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1847.5, "end": 1848.84, "text": "AI当然也不是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1848.84, "end": 1851.84, "text": "有泡沫的是围绕着他们炒作的资本市场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1851.84, "end": 1854.9, "text": "如果我们把眼光再放得长远一点的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1854.9, "end": 1857.18, "text": "泡沫的破裂其实也未必是坏事", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1857.18, "end": 1859.52, "text": "毕竟互联网泡沫破裂之后", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06347548679152937, "no_speech_prob": 1.3266075737927707e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.396923076923077 }, { "start": 1859.52, "end": 1861.88, "text": "人们也没有回到拨号上网的年代", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1861.88, "end": 1865.6, "text": "反而此后持续享有了互联网普及所带来的成果", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1865.6, "end": 1867.7, "text": "其中的道理是非常简单的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1867.7, "end": 1869.1, "text": "因为在泡沫破裂之前", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1869.1, "end": 1872.66, "text": "电信公司就已经在华尔街筹来了1.6万亿美金", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1872.66, "end": 1876.28, "text": "铺完了总长8020万英里的光纤电缆", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1876.28, "end": 1879.84, "text": "这占到了美国基础数字布线总数的76%", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1879.84, "end": 1881.56, "text": "泡沫是破裂了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1881.56, "end": 1883.2, "text": "股民们的钱也都烧光了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1883.2, "end": 1886.24, "text": "但是基础设施却都完好无损的保留了下来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1886.24, "end": 1888.26, "text": "继续再往前追溯的话", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08747063449878789, "no_speech_prob": 1.5511699563708348e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911764705882354 }, { "start": 1888.26, "end": 1891.4, "text": "回到19世纪40年代英国铁路泡沫时期", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1891.4, "end": 1893.64, "text": "当时英国报纸一半的版面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1893.64, "end": 1895.98, "text": "刊登的都是铁路公司的募资广告", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1895.98, "end": 1898.62, "text": "只要掏钱认购铁路公司的股票", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1898.62, "end": 1900.94, "text": "就有机会搭上这趟财富的列车", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1900.94, "end": 1905.26, "text": "铁路建设投资一度占到了英国GDP的7%以上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1905.26, "end": 1907.8, "text": "政府批准的铁路计划里程数", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1907.8, "end": 1909.9, "text": "也达到了一个前所未有的规模", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1909.9, "end": 1913.16, "text": "虽说当年的投资者们大多都血本无归", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1913.16, "end": 1916.14, "text": "但是英国却靠着这轮泡沫完成了工业革命", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.049382747388353535, "no_speech_prob": 1.3574333497523572e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3079268292682926 }, { "start": 1916.14, "end": 1918.46, "text": "人类也由此走进了蒸汽时代", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09573902803308823, "no_speech_prob": 5.958419955348626e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.8382352941176471 }, { "start": 1918.46, "end": 1920.0, "text": "铁路泡沫互联网", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09573902803308823, "no_speech_prob": 5.958419955348626e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.8382352941176471 }, { "start": 1920.0, "end": 1930.0, "text": "鐵路泡沫互聯網泡沫的故事邏輯同樣也適用於AI浪潮。也許若干年後,AI也會像美國的光鮮英國的鐵路一樣融入千行百業走進千家萬戶改寫人類歷史。", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10711469377790178, "no_speech_prob": 8.14842464336163e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2808641975308641 }, { "start": 1930.0, "end": 1932.62, "text": "AI产业的前景风光无限", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1932.62, "end": 1933.82, "text": "这一点毋庸置疑", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1933.82, "end": 1935.64, "text": "就像电灯取代油灯", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1935.64, "end": 1937.24, "text": "汽车接替马车一样", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1937.24, "end": 1938.32, "text": "但是还是那句话", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1938.32, "end": 1939.12, "text": "各位不要忘了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1939.12, "end": 1941.44, "text": "这件事跟我们是现在处于1995年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1941.44, "end": 1943.42, "text": "还是1999年没有任何关系", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1943.42, "end": 1947.56, "text": "2026年5月", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1947.56, "end": 1948.92, "text": "95岁的巴菲特", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1948.92, "end": 1949.92, "text": "照例出席了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1949.92, "end": 1952.34, "text": "伯克希尔哈萨韦的年度股东大会", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1952.34, "end": 1953.78, "text": "在谈及AI泡沫时", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1953.78, "end": 1955.5, "text": "股身没有留下太多的评语", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1955.5, "end": 1957.28, "text": "只是轻描淡写的说了一句", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1957.28, "end": 1958.88, "text": "我们从来没有见过人们", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08879323030641566, "no_speech_prob": 3.676178805811503e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2469512195121952 }, { "start": 1958.88, "end": 1960.64, "text": "像现在这样热衷于赌博", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1960.64, "end": 1962.86, "text": "言下之意不必多说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1962.86, "end": 1964.16, "text": "可是令人意外的是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1964.16, "end": 1965.36, "text": "就在同一个月", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1965.36, "end": 1967.08, "text": "伯克希尔对外披露的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1967.08, "end": 1969.32, "text": "第一季度持仓数据却显示", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1969.32, "end": 1971.26, "text": "公司已经大举增持", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1971.26, "end": 1972.92, "text": "AI巨头谷歌姆公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1972.92, "end": 1975.2, "text": "Alphabet的3640万股", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1975.2, "end": 1976.36, "text": "你看看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 1.651040762440381e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1927374301675977 }, { "start": 1976.36, "end": 1978.26, "text": "就连巴菲特跟他的继任者", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07245935093272816, "no_speech_prob": 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{ "start": 2042.9, "end": 2044.96, "text": "跌幅高达95%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.075104354583111, "no_speech_prob": 1.5447709084126515e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3111111111111111 }, { "start": 2044.96, "end": 2047.02, "text": "但贝索斯并没有因为股价的波动", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060608799393112596, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130629817978637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3102493074792243 }, { "start": 2047.02, "end": 2049.14, "text": "而选择刀枪入库马放南山", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060608799393112596, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130629817978637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3102493074792243 }, { "start": 2049.14, "end": 2053.02, "text": "反而继续加码建设仓储物流和技术基础设施", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060608799393112596, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130629817978637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3102493074792243 }, { "start": 2053.02, "end": 2055.84, "text": "最终亚马逊走出了这场泡沫", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060608799393112596, "no_speech_prob": 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"在泡沫震荡期很多大企业往往都招不保息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060608799393112596, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130629817978637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3102493074792243 }, { "start": 2071.74, "end": 2074.36, "text": "我们这些普通人就更加如履薄冰了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.060608799393112596, "no_speech_prob": 1.6130629817978637e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3102493074792243 }, { "start": 2074.36, "end": 2077.7, "text": "相信屏幕前的各位都曾经思考过一个问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06300021965466245, "no_speech_prob": 1.975437521894996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3492957746478873 }, { "start": 2077.7, "end": 2080.48, "text": "那就是要是自己的岗位被AI取代了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06300021965466245, "no_speech_prob": 1.975437521894996e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3492957746478873 }, { "start": 2080.48, "end": 2081.5, "text": "我们该怎么办呢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06300021965466245, "no_speech_prob": 1.975437521894996e-11, 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