{
  "text": "跟我們比較靠近的這個日本\n日本也是一個比較特殊的情況\n過去通膨好高\n然後就是民怨非常的深\n那在失業率的部分是下降\n家庭實質消費的時候\n更可怕\n就是這是一個很大的警訊\n就是年減3.3%\n老師那日本目前的\n經濟狀況呢\n日本的情況呢\n看起來是失業率滿低的\n但是這個失業率滿低的\n這個情況呢\n它其實是跟\n少子化 高齡化有關的\n就是它的這個\n少子化跟高齡化呢\n讓它的勞動人口呢\n快速在下降\n勞動人口快速下降的時候呢\n它就靠一些高齡的就業者\n跟一些女性就業者來支撐\n但是這些高齡跟女性的\n就業者呢\n他們從事的工作呢\n多半都是兼差啦\n或者不是重要的正職工作\n所以收入都很很少\n因此你看到這個失業率呢\n是靠這些高齡的\n跟女性的這些就業者呢\n在支撐\n但是因為他們的這個收入呢\n事實上是比較少\n所以他們的所得呢\n其實是偏低的\n所以這個失業率呢 是一個\n我們說這個偽裝的失業率\n這個失業率掩蓋住了\n它的真正的\n這種勞動人口減少了\n這個非常大的危機\n另外就是因為它的這個\n日圓貶值的關係\n日圓貶值呢\n就使得它的進口成本\n開始變高了\n但是呢\n日本呢\n它又進口很多\n很高價的像能源以及糧食\n所以這麼高價的\n能源跟糧食呢\n會把它的國內的這些\n主要的這個物價呢\n就往上抬高\n所以就一般民眾來說呢\n他的薪資收入並沒有增加\n但是呢\n它的通膨還是滿高的\n尤其是進口的物價上升更多\n所以對一般民眾來說呢\n他會覺得就是\n在這個時候呢\n他看起來呢\n就業的市場呢\n情況不是很好\n因為都是一些\n高齡的女性在支撐\n另外一方面呢\n就是他的這個薪資呢\n它的成長呢\n趕不上物價的上升\n所以一般的民眾呢\n他可能對於未來呢\n是充滿了不確定感\n他就會減少\n他的不必要的消費\n會努力的增加儲蓄\n所以就這個情況來看的話呢\n它的這個整個經濟呢\n你看到的情況就是\n家庭實質消費呢\n在快速的在下降\n那快速的下降就表示呢\n他把其他的這個所得呢\n就儲蓄起來\n以備不時之需\n所以對整個\n這個經濟來說的話呢\n它的這個成長動能呢\n是非常的薄弱的\n我們目前面臨基礎通膨\n超出目標的高度風險\n若未能即時對貨幣寬鬆程度\n進行必要調整\n可能導致經濟下滑\n以及金融與資本市場不穩定\n老師因為我看它這一次\n的這個就是通膨\n其實已經降到2%以下\n就是大家的標準是2%\n感覺好像有比較明顯\n的這個危機是變少的\n但是實際上來看\n未來它其實\n還是有通膨的可能性\n對不對\n因為它這個通膨的這個下降\n主要是因為它的這個\n整個內需在萎縮\n內需萎縮就會使得\n銷售者也會銷路不好\n就會降價\n所以它的通膨呢\n就因此就降下來了\n但是這個降下來\n不是好事情\n這是反映它的這個國內市場\n非常虛弱\n但是呢\n它在通膨\n看起來往下降的同時呢\n它的這個日圓貶值呢\n使得進口的成本大增\n你看進口成本當中呢\n我們剛剛說過\n包括能源\n就是它平常用的汽油\n以及糧食 那更重要\n所以這些進口的這個物價升高\n它的升高的幅度\n會比這個通膨率要更高\n所以民眾一方面呢\n他的這個收入呢\n事實上在減少了\n一方面他要面對這麼多\n這個生活必需品的\n這個物價升上升\n所以就民眾來說呢\n他的確不會覺得他現在呢\n有什麼這個通膨的風險\n他可能反而會覺得\n他要想辦法呢\n讓自己的未來的生活呢\n能夠得到保障\n由於日本同時出口與進口\n因此日圓貶值既有好處\n也有缺點\n較弱的日圓有利於某些產業\n但也會提高其他產業的成本\n它自然會影響物價\n而日本進口許多產品\n不過就日本而言\n最大的成本項目\n就是能源成本\n正透過政府預算措施\n加以抑制\n因此通膨影響受到部分緩衝\n這也是日本通膨\n低於德國及許多其他國家\n的原因之一\n老師那日本的央行\n要怎麼做呢\n因為它過去很堅持要升息\n當然是因為這個物價\n其實通膨率非常的高\n那另外一方面就是\n支撐這個日圓\n那現在來看的話\n就是通膨這個數字\n好像感覺明顯地下降\n但是它是不是也不能降息\n因為它其實\n背後這個通膨的因子\n還沒有辦法完全去除\n再加上如果降息的話\n它的日圓就更弱不是嗎 對\n所以現在呢\n日本央行其實是進退兩難\n因為它現在如果是\n想要支撐日圓的話\n它應該升息\n但是一旦升息\n就會使得企業的經營成本\n跟一般家庭\n他的這個利息的負擔\n或這個房貸\n都跟著加重他的負擔\n所以在這個時候呢\n它不能升息\n但它不能降息\n它一降息的話\n那日圓就貶值貶得更厲害\n所以在這時候呢\n它既不能升息\n也不能降息\n大概就只能\n維持在目前這個狀態了\n7月31日星期五\n日本財務省與美國財政部\n協調合作\n實施了聯合外匯干預\n這項聯合干預\n這項聯合干預\n是根據2024年9月發布的\n日美財長聯合聲明所執行\n日美財長聯合聲明所執行\n目的在於因應近期觀察到的\n日圓過度波動及無序走勢\n因為我們與日本關係良好\n我們的財政實力非常強\n非常非常強\n而它們的日圓正在走弱\n它們希望得到一點協助\n而我們一向都會支持日本\n日本一直對我們很好\n當然 珍珠港事件除外\n老師那還有另外一點\n其實還滿特別\n就是過去\n大概在前一陣子的時候\n日圓一度又貶\n而且貶得很深\n然後而且貶很深\n到166元\n那後來其實美日\n非常罕現的聯手\n去支撐這個日圓\n老師為什麼這一次\n美國會出手啊\n美國出手\n其實不是要幫助日本\n是擔心美國自己\n因為如果\n日圓繼續貶下去的話\n因為日圓過去一向呢\n被當做一個套利工具\n因為日本的利率太低了\n而美國利率很高\n所以中間就產生了\n很大的這個利差\n而這個利差呢\n就會使得大家覺得\n我如果去日本\n我借了便宜的日圓\n然後把這個日圓拿去呢\n買美債的話\n它中間可以賺到很大\n的一筆這個利益\n所以這個利差的存在呢\n就會使得大量的日圓呢\n就從日本流出去\n去買美債啦\n跟買美元資產\n現在呢\n如果日圓貶值貶得更低的話\n就會使得這個利差交易呢\n變得更有利\n因為它現在可以更\n拿更便宜的日圓呢\n去買美元資產\n所以美國擔心的就是\n在這個時候呢\n日本這個可能到最後\n它就為了要救日圓呢\n它會大量拋售\n它手上所擁有的美債\n而拿這個資金呢\n回來買日圓\n所以美國呢\n它很擔心如果\n日本真的這樣做\n大量的拋售美債的話\n美國現在呢\n是一個很艱困的情況\n美國的這個財政赤字非常大\n而且美國的公債已經\n累積到這個3兆美元以上\n所以這時候如果日本再\n大量的這個拋售美債的話\n美國的市場呢\n可能會出現這個美債價格\n再進一步大跌\n而美債的殖利率呢\n進一步升高\n事實上\n美債(長天期公債)殖利率\n已經升高升破5%已經很久了\n現在大概將近5.3%\n所以是一個很危險的狀態\n所以美國呢\n就是為了要想辦法呢\n讓日本不要做這種\n拋售美債的事情\n就來幫助日本\n把這個日圓呢 要穩住\n財務上的利益\n一項財務上的利益\n而且我們也……\n這對世界經濟也有好處\n不過我們會獲利\n就像我們對阿根廷\n所做的那樣\n我曾因此受到批評\n但我們在那筆交易中\n賺了250億美元\n在委內瑞拉\n我們會賺進數千億美元\n我談成的都是好交易\n但是它的幫助其實\n看起來效果很有限啊\n因為一度上升到166\n可是又跌破了160\n可是又跌破了160\n所以老師它們這樣的出手\n就是它背後真正的原因\n還是沒有解決\n就是美元跟日圓之間的利差\n還是這麼的大\n所以\n其實這還是沒有辦法\n解決一個根本的情況\n對不對 對\n這是短暫的而已嘛\n它就是緩和了一點\n拋售美債的情況\n因為它暫時的把日圓\n拉起來以後呢\n就讓當初這個\n我們很擔心這個套利交易呢\n能夠稍微緩和一下\n可是呢\n這種干預當然是無效的\n一方面就是\n美國有多少錢可以干預\n第二個就是\n這種利差的存在呢\n它已經是一個客觀的事實\n這個利差只要存在\n就會有套利交易\n而這個套利交易呢\n就會使得日圓貶值\n所以它能夠拉一時\n但是拉不了很久\n而這個情況呢\n我們現在看到\n這個日圓又回到160\n而事實上呢\n在1998年\n美國也曾經做過這個事情\n它當時呢\n也跟日本聯手拉抬日圓\n把日圓從146對1美元\n拉到大概135對1美元\n可是兩個月之後\n又回到147\n所以前面的這個前車之鑒呢\n已經看得出來\n這個是無效的\n所以這一次呢\n同樣是徒勞無功\n所以老師它們最根本\n要能夠解決\n可能就是看背後那個\n造成因果關係的這個原因\n那原因就是\n如果日本央行把利息\n上升到跟美國差不多的時候\n對日圓就會有一個\n很明顯的支撐\n那相對就不會有利率\n上面這麼大的落差\n不會有這個利差\n這是一個解決的根本方法 對\n但是不可能 對 是不可能\n因為如果這樣的話\n這個日本整個經濟就垮掉了\n而且呢\n日本到目前為止呢\n它只升息一點點\n它就已經造成很大的後果了\n而且它如果只升一點點的話呢\n根本讓大家沒有感覺\n所以這個套利交易呢\n不會受到影響\n而大家又都知道日本\n日本央行是不可能大量升息的\n所以大家根本不在乎\n它升息不升息\n所以大概另外一個\n可以寄望就是美國降息了\n可是以目前看起來\n也是不太可能\n如果美國經濟突然垮了\n美國這個聯準會呢\n就不得不出手\n大幅度降息\n到那個時候呢\n利差會縮小一點\n但是要拉到跟日本一樣低\n還是不可能的\n所以老師還有沒有一個辦法\n就是所謂的固定匯率呢\n如果它是固定的\n把這個匯率抓在\n例如說1(美元)比140(日圓)\n這樣可以嗎\n這樣對日本會產生什麼影響\n對 固定匯率是有很多問題的\n固定匯率呢\n就日本目前情況來看的話\n如果它是這樣的固定匯率的話\n日本的出口可能馬上\n就瓦解了\n因為它現在160的這個匯率呢\n它的出口呢\n還有競爭力\n你如果把這個匯率硬往上\n拉到140的話\n等於是升值多少呢\n升值了大概12.5%\n一個貨幣升值12.5%\n那就是毀滅性的升值\n你不要說12.5%\n升值5%就已經很不得了\n所以\n日本不可能把這個匯率\n拉到那邊去\n但是如果要固定在160\n也許是可能的\n固定在160的話呢\n它就要承擔就是\n如果這種套利交易繼續進行\n而本來有讓這個日圓再往下\n貶值的壓力\n而它現在呢\n把它的匯率固定住\n不讓它貶值的話\n那不讓它貶值的後果呢\n就是它的出口就會受到打擊\n因為它應該到164\n出口才能夠平衡的話\n現在到160\n它平衡不了\n它照樣會受到傷害\n所以固定匯率呢\n就是要犧牲本國的這個\n進出口的競爭力\n所以老師這也是過去\n所以很多國家都已經\n放棄固定匯率\n包括台灣在內 對\n我記得老師之前有講到說\n我們好像是1比40\n後來就取消了嘛 對\n現在已經到1比32、1比31\n所以老師是不是\n對外貿易越頻繁\n而且量能比較大的國家\n就更不能 對\n採所謂的固定匯率 對\n因為它的這個匯率\n決定它的進出口的競爭力\n如果它以出口競爭力\n來維持經濟成長的話\n它就不敢絲毫\n讓它的貨幣升值\n所以台灣其其實一直\n大家都認為台灣的央行呢\n好像有貶值傾向\n就是這個原因\n老師那對於就是\n例如說想要去日本旅遊啊\n然後或者是想要換日圓啦\n或者是持有日股的\n民眾來說的話\n有什麼樣的建議嗎\n以目前這個情況的話\n如果就我們剛才\n這樣的推論的話\n你想要去日本旅遊啦\n或者是買日本股票等等呢\n你原來擔心就是日圓升值\n可能會使得它的價錢\n變貴了 對不對\n使得在旅遊的成本提高了\n可是如果照我們剛才\n這樣的推論呢\n日圓根本不可能保持在高位\n它馬上就回到160左右\n這個時候呢\n你就不需要擔心了\n因為它的這個價位呢\n如果在160左右\n或者稍微低一點\n跟現在情況沒有什麼差別\n所以你不需要做任何的\n預先的這個準備\n因為像之前我有看那個\n台幣對日圓的部分\n就一度升到0.21\n突然非常高\n但是後來開始\n欸 慢慢往下降\n所以以老師的角度來講的話\n它其實下降的機率\n會比上升還要高 對\n那個時候其實就等於\n是一個高峰了啦 對\n尤其是它的經濟情況\n看起來是這麼不樂觀\n所以它要再進一步要\n提高它的這個\n日圓的這個匯率\n機會可能是比較小\n如果它的經濟看起來呢\n更往下走的話\n可能它的這個貶值可能性呢\n會比較大一點\n老師那最後來看台灣的部分\n台灣其實在我們的\n第二季經濟成長率\n同樣很驚人\n就是12.93%\n那今年全年已經\n預估就是超過10%\n11.05%\n那我們在出口的部分\n年增32.9%\n一樣是數據非常的亮眼\n那在通膨的部分是\n年增2.54%\n其實都始終\n超過央行2%的標準\n那更恐怖\n其實也是一個很大的警訊就在\n其實也是一個很大的警訊\n就在PPI年增是16.94%\n那之後可以問一下老師\n這到最後是不會傳導到物價\n那先來看我們的\n經濟成長率的部分\n老師那為什麼對大家的薪資\n還有感受完全都無感呢\n這個其實我們大家都很清楚\n因為這個出口的這個貢獻\n幾乎全部都在AI 半導體\n在這兩類產業之外呢\n其他傳產都是\n我們說一片這個淒慘\n所以它的這種成長呢\n分配是非常不平均的\n因為在跟AI跟半導體有關的\n這個就業者呢\n大概只占15%\n可是呢\n剩下這80、90%\n都在其他行業\n尤其是有60%呢\n都在服務業\n而服務業我們都知道\n在這段時間是\n最慘的一個行業\n它的薪資呢 是嚴重偏低\n所以60%的人嚴重偏低\n只有10幾%的人\n他的這個收入嚴重偏高\n那這是一個什麼社會呢\n這是一個非常不平均的社會\n所以有7成的人\n他的這工資呢\n達不到平均薪資\n那就表示呢\n7成的人呢\n他都落到了平均薪資以下\n就表示平均薪資呢\n是被剩下這10幾%的人拉高的\n這樣的一個經濟情況呢\n當然對整個社會來說呢\n不是很好的事情\n因為如果大多數人\n他的所得都偏低了\n而通貨膨脹率呢 又開始\n又升到這麼高的這個狀態\n就表示呢\n大多數人\n他的真實的所得是下降的\n只有少數人\n他的真實所得升高\n升高了很多\n但是這些人呢\n他所做的消費\n跟一般人是不一樣的\n他都是用於這個奢侈品啦\n或者高價的房屋啦\n或者高價的這個消費品\n這種東西上面\n這不是跟一般人的生活有關的\n所以他會把那些東西的價格\n會拉高\n但是一般大眾呢\n他真正\n他所面對這些商品呢\n他們其實呢\n感受不到任何好處\n所以這樣一個經濟情況呢\n事實上\n不是一個正常的經濟情況\n當然絕對不是理想的經濟情況\n而這個情況呢\n也沒有辦法扭轉\n因為現在呢\n台灣就是靠著這個AI\n跟這個半導體 晶片\n靠這個行業呢 在生存\n我們的出口\n都集中在這個地方\n而我們呢\n因為這個原因呢\n就跟美國能夠同步的\n再往上走\n把這個部分如果再拿掉的話\n台灣就一無是處了\n所以那80幾%的人\n他薪資不僅是沒有增加\n那現在還得應付\n超過2.5%以上的通膨\n那進一步來看的話\n這個PPI(生產者物價指數)\n年增16.94%\n老師到最後還是會\n反映到物價對不對 當然\n還是會傳導 當然\n而且企業它能撐多久\n因為企業不能撐多久\n企業要撐的話就是\n一開始呢\n就成本上升這麼高\n它一定會壓縮到它的利潤\n所以一開始呢\n你就看到它的利潤就下降了\n然後呢\n企業它用它的庫存\n它過去比較低價\n買進來的庫存\n用這庫存來生產產品\n但這庫存呢\n大概3個月\n頂多3個月就用完了\n用完了庫存之後呢\n它只好\n按照它現在\n這些原物料進貨的成本\n來加在它的產品的成本上面\n所以它的這個產品單價\n就升高了\n所以這種情況呢\n大概不會支撐多久\n可能在一兩個月之內呢\n你會看到一些這個\n這些加工品啦等等的\n它因為它這個原材料呢\n它的這個上升的特別明顯\n所以它們很快就反應\n然後到2、3個月之後呢\n它會反映到一般的\n這個餐飲啦\n或者服務業了\n然後再往下呢\n就會反映到這個交通成本哪\n運輸成本哪\n公共服務成本\n所以大概不會超過6個月了\n就是在3個月到6個月之間呢\n這個快速增加的\n原物料成本呢\n就全部都反映在\n一般人日常生活當中\n那像老師剛有提到說\n像AI的紅利\n沒有辦法普及到所有的人\n那可能就是10幾%的人口\n他們是最大的獲益者\n那我看這個賴清德總統\n他有說要把這個\n就是AI紅利\n然後每個人普發1萬元\n老師支持這樣子的做法嗎\n他這樣的說法呢\n他的主要的根據就是\n因為這個AI紅利這個部分呢\n讓稅收增加了\n而這個稅收增加呢\n就會使得這個預算的\n這個虧損呢 就會減少\n所以他說\n他認為呢\n這個稅收增加的部分呢\n就拿出來\n讓全民普遍能夠得到一點好處\n當然也是在支撐整體經濟\n因為現在\n如果除了這個高科技行業之外\n其他都這麼悲慘的話\n當然在這個時候呢\n就拿錢給大家來分配\n讓一般的大眾\n也能夠稍微有點助益\n也是一件好事情了\n就是平衡那個落差的心理\n因為我們一直看到 哇\n這個出口賺那麼多\n可我們好像沒有\n拿到任何好處這樣\n但是\n這個1萬塊\n大概也補償不了多少了 對\n可是\n對可能低收入戶來講 對\n他們會是一個很大的幫助\n對 因為1萬塊就是\n這個家庭裡面\n有多少人就有多少萬\n所以對於那些\n這個家裡人口眾多\n收入又很少的人來說的話\n這是一個額外的\n一個天上掉下來的這個錢\n所以我們要希望這個\nAI出口始終這麼好\n或許之後可以再發多一點嗎\n對 當然\n因為我們必須要希望它好\n因為台灣整個經濟\n就靠它支撐\n它要不好的話\n就全台灣都垮下去了\n但是就是雙面刃\n另外一方面我們就是太依靠它\n可是以現階段來講\n也是無法改變的\n現在已經變成一個\n相當固定的結構了\n就是人才啦 資金啦 技術啦\n都已經被它吸引到那邊去了\n其他的這個行業呢\n也得不到資金\n也得不到人才\n也得不到銷路\n所以其他部分呢\n事實上呢\n已經枯萎了\n如果要讓它改變的話\n那絕對不是短時間的\n尤其現在呢\n台灣傳統製造業\n又面對這麼多挑戰\n中國大陸這個低價傾銷\n會打擊到傳統製造業\n而台灣服務業呢\n事實上台灣服務業呢\n你可以看出一件事情來\n就是沒有人要國內旅遊了\n大家都跑到國外去旅遊了\n大家都覺得台灣旅遊\n又不方便\n又貴 又沒有什麼特色\n所以乾脆把錢拿到外國去花\n所以國內如果旅遊\n如果是這樣的衰退下去的話\n服務業當然不會好了\n因為很多服務業\n不是跟住宿有關\n就是跟餐飲有關\n如果你的這個遊客都不見了\n沒有人要住宿了\n那附近也不會\n有什麼餐飲的收入\n所以台灣就在這個情況之下呢\n就會使得這個\n整體的這個經濟呢\n一直在往下走\n只有一個科技業一枝獨秀\n所以老師\n那以這樣情況之下\n會認為說這個\n我們全年11.05%\n這樣子的成長率\n可以維持多久嗎\n還是說其實我們\n如果以目前的發展來講\n始終都可以\n會這麼的好嗎\n這裡面有幾個前提\n第一個前提呢\n就是AI半導體這個行業呢\n始終這麼強勁\n因為我們這個(第2季)\n12.93%的這個成長率呢\n幾乎全部都來自這個部分\n現在看起來呢\nAI的情況還好\n不過有很多隱憂\n因為最近公布出來一個數字\n就是這些AI巨頭呢\n它們的隱形的負債呢\n已經達到3兆美元\n隱形負債在哪些方面呢\n一個就是\n它的很多資料中心呢\n它要租\n但是還沒有付出租金\n就會使得它在這一方面呢\n它有大概1兆多美元\n被拖在這個地方\n還有一些其他部分的支出\n合在一起就是3兆美元\n就表示呢\n這AI巨頭呢\n它也不過就幾家而已\n它們如果共同承擔\n這3兆美元的隱形負債的話\n每一家負債有多少\n這些負債呢\n可能就會把它們拖垮\n因為現在大家都在看的\n一件事情是\n它現在投資這麼多在資料中心\n在算力方面\n到底它真正可以落地 賺錢\n是在什麼時候\n會有多少\n而美國AI巨頭呢\n目前其實有很多的隱憂\n其中一個呢 就是\n它們的這些高價的\n閉源的這些模型\n受到了中國大陸\n很低價的\n開源的這個模型的打擊\n現在呢\n中國大陸開源模型呢\n它的市占率已經\n遙遙領先於美國這些科技巨頭\n而這些中國大陸的開源模型呢\n用1/3、1/5\n甚至1/10的這個價格呢\n在出售它的算力\n這樣的一種\n既是低廉的價格\n又是開源的模型\n因為開源模型呢\n跟閉源模型比起來呢\n開源模型\n它的使用的範圍更廣\n它可以自己去\n做各種這個變化\n所以如果中國大陸\n它的開源模型\n它開源模型不止一個\n它除了這個阿裡巴巴之外\n還有DeepSeek等等\n有一大堆的開源模型\n它的能力呢\n跟美國的閉源模型呢\n都相差無幾了\n可是呢\n它的成本這麼低\n所以美國的這些科技巨頭呢\n它面對非常大的挑戰\n這個挑戰呢\n如果到最後呢\n發現市場基本上呢\n都被中國開源模型搶走了\n那它這些算力呢\n要能夠回收利潤\n你就發現呢\n可能機會更小\n所以如果我們是\n單獨在依靠美國的AI巨頭\n在維持整個經濟發展的話\n那現在好像是有滿高的風險的\n它即使是AI這個產業呢\n美國科技巨頭還是那麼強勁\n它的這個高成長率呢\n也維持不了多久\n大概維持到第3季\n為什麼呢\n因為到第4季\n基期就已經拉高了\n所以基期拉高之後\n即使現在的AI還是如此強勁\n成長率馬上被腰斬到5%以下\n到了明年呢\n可能更低\n所以兩個因素\n一個是AI的強勁\n一個是基期不能高\n但是你看這個基期都拉高了\n所以將來呢\n不會有這麼高的成長率了\n大概能夠保持5、6%就不錯了\n老師會不會也有另外一個\n樂觀的情境的可能性\n就是去年\n其實也是因為基期很高\n因為也是超過10%以上\n然後我們認為\n欸 今年也是央行 各大機構\n都認為說我們如果\n能夠有5%就很厲害了\n但沒想到我們還是超過\n所以完全\n就是要看這個AI\n下一步的實體AI的發展\n是不是真的能夠落地\n對不對 對\n所以變成是\n到底能不能夠持續\n關鍵其實還是在AI核心 對\n還有就是這個基期\n到底會高到什麼程度",
  "language": "zh",
  "duration": 1823.0,
  "segments": [
    {
      "id": 0,
      "start": 12.666,
      "end": 14.566,
      "text": "跟我們比較靠近的這個日本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 1,
      "start": 14.566,
      "end": 16.3,
      "text": "日本也是一個比較特殊的情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "start": 16.3,
      "end": 17.5,
      "text": "過去通膨好高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "start": 17.5,
      "end": 19.633,
      "text": "然後就是民怨非常的深",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "start": 19.633,
      "end": 22.2,
      "text": "那在失業率的部分是下降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 5,
      "start": 22.5,
      "end": 24.233,
      "text": "家庭實質消費的時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 6,
      "start": 24.533,
      "end": 25.366,
      "text": "更可怕",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 7,
      "start": 25.366,
      "end": 26.833,
      "text": "就是這是一個很大的警訊",
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    },
    {
      "id": 8,
      "start": 26.833,
      "end": 29.3,
      "text": "就是年減3.3%",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
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    {
      "id": 9,
      "start": 29.3,
      "end": 30.6,
      "text": "老師那日本目前的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 10,
      "start": 30.6,
      "end": 31.833,
      "text": "經濟狀況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 11,
      "start": 32.066,
      "end": 33.366,
      "text": "日本的情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 12,
      "start": 33.6,
      "end": 36.4,
      "text": "看起來是失業率滿低的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 13,
      "start": 36.7,
      "end": 38.033,
      "text": "但是這個失業率滿低的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 14,
      "start": 38.033,
      "end": 39.066,
      "text": "這個情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 15,
      "start": 39.333,
      "end": 40.933,
      "text": "它其實是跟",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 16,
      "start": 41.2,
      "end": 44.1,
      "text": "少子化 高齡化有關的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 17,
      "start": 44.466,
      "end": 46.7,
      "text": "就是它的這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 18,
      "start": 46.733,
      "end": 48.166,
      "text": "少子化跟高齡化呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 19,
      "start": 48.333,
      "end": 50.433,
      "text": "讓它的勞動人口呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 20,
      "start": 50.566,
      "end": 52.066,
      "text": "快速在下降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 21,
      "start": 52.633,
      "end": 54.7,
      "text": "勞動人口快速下降的時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 22,
      "start": 54.866,
      "end": 58.433,
      "text": "它就靠一些高齡的就業者",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 23,
      "start": 58.7,
      "end": 61.666,
      "text": "跟一些女性就業者來支撐",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 24,
      "start": 61.966,
      "end": 63.866,
      "text": "但是這些高齡跟女性的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 25,
      "start": 63.866,
      "end": 64.866,
      "text": "就業者呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 26,
      "start": 65.0,
      "end": 66.333,
      "text": "他們從事的工作呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 27,
      "start": 66.333,
      "end": 68.5,
      "text": "多半都是兼差啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 28,
      "start": 68.666,
      "end": 71.566,
      "text": "或者不是重要的正職工作",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 29,
      "start": 71.733,
      "end": 73.7,
      "text": "所以收入都很很少",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 30,
      "start": 73.933,
      "end": 76.333,
      "text": "因此你看到這個失業率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 31,
      "start": 76.333,
      "end": 78.333,
      "text": "是靠這些高齡的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 32,
      "start": 78.333,
      "end": 80.233,
      "text": "跟女性的這些就業者呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 33,
      "start": 80.266,
      "end": 81.433,
      "text": "在支撐",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 34,
      "start": 81.6,
      "end": 83.066,
      "text": "但是因為他們的這個收入呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 35,
      "start": 83.066,
      "end": 84.366,
      "text": "事實上是比較少",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 36,
      "start": 84.366,
      "end": 85.8,
      "text": "所以他們的所得呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 37,
      "start": 85.8,
      "end": 87.633,
      "text": "其實是偏低的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 38,
      "start": 87.933,
      "end": 90.366,
      "text": "所以這個失業率呢 是一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 39,
      "start": 90.366,
      "end": 92.566,
      "text": "我們說這個偽裝的失業率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 40,
      "start": 92.666,
      "end": 94.466,
      "text": "這個失業率掩蓋住了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 41,
      "start": 94.466,
      "end": 95.333,
      "text": "它的真正的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 42,
      "start": 95.333,
      "end": 97.566,
      "text": "這種勞動人口減少了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 43,
      "start": 97.566,
      "end": 99.4,
      "text": "這個非常大的危機",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 44,
      "start": 99.6,
      "end": 101.366,
      "text": "另外就是因為它的這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 45,
      "start": 101.366,
      "end": 103.2,
      "text": "日圓貶值的關係",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 46,
      "start": 103.2,
      "end": 104.333,
      "text": "日圓貶值呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 47,
      "start": 104.333,
      "end": 106.6,
      "text": "就使得它的進口成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 48,
      "start": 106.7,
      "end": 108.333,
      "text": "開始變高了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 49,
      "start": 108.333,
      "end": 109.033,
      "text": "但是呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 50,
      "start": 109.033,
      "end": 109.7,
      "text": "日本呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 51,
      "start": 109.7,
      "end": 110.833,
      "text": "它又進口很多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 52,
      "start": 110.833,
      "end": 114.833,
      "text": "很高價的像能源以及糧食",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 53,
      "start": 115.066,
      "end": 116.433,
      "text": "所以這麼高價的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 54,
      "start": 116.433,
      "end": 118.033,
      "text": "能源跟糧食呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 55,
      "start": 118.033,
      "end": 120.1,
      "text": "會把它的國內的這些",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 56,
      "start": 120.1,
      "end": 121.433,
      "text": "主要的這個物價呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 57,
      "start": 121.433,
      "end": 122.933,
      "text": "就往上抬高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 58,
      "start": 123.066,
      "end": 124.8,
      "text": "所以就一般民眾來說呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 59,
      "start": 124.866,
      "end": 128.466,
      "text": "他的薪資收入並沒有增加",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 60,
      "start": 128.566,
      "end": 129.3,
      "text": "但是呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 61,
      "start": 129.3,
      "end": 132.166,
      "text": "它的通膨還是滿高的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 62,
      "start": 132.166,
      "end": 135.466,
      "text": "尤其是進口的物價上升更多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 63,
      "start": 135.633,
      "end": 137.366,
      "text": "所以對一般民眾來說呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 64,
      "start": 137.366,
      "end": 138.7,
      "text": "他會覺得就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 65,
      "start": 138.7,
      "end": 139.933,
      "text": "在這個時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 66,
      "start": 139.933,
      "end": 141.2,
      "text": "他看起來呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 67,
      "start": 141.2,
      "end": 142.133,
      "text": "就業的市場呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 68,
      "start": 142.133,
      "end": 143.233,
      "text": "情況不是很好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 69,
      "start": 143.233,
      "end": 144.066,
      "text": "因為都是一些",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 70,
      "start": 144.066,
      "end": 146.433,
      "text": "高齡的女性在支撐",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 71,
      "start": 146.466,
      "end": 147.566,
      "text": "另外一方面呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 72,
      "start": 147.666,
      "end": 149.866,
      "text": "就是他的這個薪資呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 73,
      "start": 149.866,
      "end": 150.966,
      "text": "它的成長呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 74,
      "start": 150.966,
      "end": 153.1,
      "text": "趕不上物價的上升",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 75,
      "start": 153.266,
      "end": 155.266,
      "text": "所以一般的民眾呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 76,
      "start": 155.266,
      "end": 156.766,
      "text": "他可能對於未來呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 77,
      "start": 156.766,
      "end": 158.8,
      "text": "是充滿了不確定感",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 78,
      "start": 158.8,
      "end": 159.9,
      "text": "他就會減少",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 79,
      "start": 159.9,
      "end": 161.666,
      "text": "他的不必要的消費",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 80,
      "start": 161.666,
      "end": 163.9,
      "text": "會努力的增加儲蓄",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 81,
      "start": 164.1,
      "end": 166.233,
      "text": "所以就這個情況來看的話呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 82,
      "start": 166.233,
      "end": 167.9,
      "text": "它的這個整個經濟呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 83,
      "start": 168.066,
      "end": 169.666,
      "text": "你看到的情況就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 84,
      "start": 169.666,
      "end": 171.266,
      "text": "家庭實質消費呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 85,
      "start": 171.6,
      "end": 173.466,
      "text": "在快速的在下降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 86,
      "start": 173.733,
      "end": 176.0,
      "text": "那快速的下降就表示呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 87,
      "start": 176.0,
      "end": 178.133,
      "text": "他把其他的這個所得呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 88,
      "start": 178.133,
      "end": 179.5,
      "text": "就儲蓄起來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 89,
      "start": 179.533,
      "end": 181.5,
      "text": "以備不時之需",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 90,
      "start": 181.5,
      "end": 182.366,
      "text": "所以對整個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 91,
      "start": 182.366,
      "end": 184.066,
      "text": "這個經濟來說的話呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 92,
      "start": 184.066,
      "end": 185.7,
      "text": "它的這個成長動能呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 93,
      "start": 185.7,
      "end": 188.166,
      "text": "是非常的薄弱的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 94,
      "start": 188.566,
      "end": 190.833,
      "text": "我們目前面臨基礎通膨",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 95,
      "start": 190.833,
      "end": 193.4,
      "text": "超出目標的高度風險",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 96,
      "start": 193.866,
      "end": 196.966,
      "text": "若未能即時對貨幣寬鬆程度",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 97,
      "start": 196.966,
      "end": 198.5,
      "text": "進行必要調整",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 98,
      "start": 198.5,
      "end": 202.9,
      "text": "可能導致經濟下滑",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 99,
      "start": 202.9,
      "end": 206.6,
      "text": "以及金融與資本市場不穩定",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 100,
      "start": 206.9,
      "end": 208.466,
      "text": "老師因為我看它這一次",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 101,
      "start": 208.466,
      "end": 210.066,
      "text": "的這個就是通膨",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 102,
      "start": 210.066,
      "end": 212.5,
      "text": "其實已經降到2%以下",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 103,
      "start": 212.5,
      "end": 214.3,
      "text": "就是大家的標準是2%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 104,
      "start": 214.3,
      "end": 216.466,
      "text": "感覺好像有比較明顯",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 105,
      "start": 216.466,
      "end": 218.4,
      "text": "的這個危機是變少的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 106,
      "start": 218.4,
      "end": 220.333,
      "text": "但是實際上來看",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 107,
      "start": 220.333,
      "end": 221.5,
      "text": "未來它其實",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 108,
      "start": 221.5,
      "end": 223.033,
      "text": "還是有通膨的可能性",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 109,
      "start": 223.033,
      "end": 223.866,
      "text": "對不對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 110,
      "start": 224.0,
      "end": 226.5,
      "text": "因為它這個通膨的這個下降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 111,
      "start": 226.8,
      "end": 228.1,
      "text": "主要是因為它的這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 112,
      "start": 228.1,
      "end": 230.2,
      "text": "整個內需在萎縮",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 113,
      "start": 230.9,
      "end": 233.166,
      "text": "內需萎縮就會使得",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 114,
      "start": 233.166,
      "end": 235.9,
      "text": "銷售者也會銷路不好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 115,
      "start": 235.9,
      "end": 237.233,
      "text": "就會降價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 116,
      "start": 237.433,
      "end": 238.7,
      "text": "所以它的通膨呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "start": 238.7,
      "end": 240.766,
      "text": "就因此就降下來了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "start": 241.033,
      "end": 242.266,
      "text": "但是這個降下來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "start": 242.266,
      "end": 243.633,
      "text": "不是好事情",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "start": 243.8,
      "end": 246.5,
      "text": "這是反映它的這個國內市場",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "start": 246.5,
      "end": 247.9,
      "text": "非常虛弱",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 122,
      "start": 248.266,
      "end": 249.133,
      "text": "但是呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 123,
      "start": 249.133,
      "end": 250.4,
      "text": "它在通膨",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 124,
      "start": 250.4,
      "end": 252.7,
      "text": "看起來往下降的同時呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 125,
      "start": 252.9,
      "end": 255.133,
      "text": "它的這個日圓貶值呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 126,
      "start": 255.4,
      "end": 257.5,
      "text": "使得進口的成本大增",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 127,
      "start": 257.666,
      "end": 259.3,
      "text": "你看進口成本當中呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 128,
      "start": 259.5,
      "end": 260.633,
      "text": "我們剛剛說過",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 129,
      "start": 260.766,
      "end": 261.9,
      "text": "包括能源",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 130,
      "start": 261.9,
      "end": 263.9,
      "text": "就是它平常用的汽油",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 131,
      "start": 264.033,
      "end": 265.866,
      "text": "以及糧食 那更重要",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 132,
      "start": 266.1,
      "end": 270.433,
      "text": "所以這些進口的這個物價升高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 133,
      "start": 270.666,
      "end": 271.633,
      "text": "它的升高的幅度",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 134,
      "start": 271.633,
      "end": 274.1,
      "text": "會比這個通膨率要更高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 135,
      "start": 274.433,
      "end": 276.3,
      "text": "所以民眾一方面呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 136,
      "start": 276.3,
      "end": 277.666,
      "text": "他的這個收入呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 137,
      "start": 277.666,
      "end": 279.133,
      "text": "事實上在減少了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 138,
      "start": 279.333,
      "end": 280.933,
      "text": "一方面他要面對這麼多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 139,
      "start": 280.933,
      "end": 282.833,
      "text": "這個生活必需品的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 140,
      "start": 282.833,
      "end": 284.1,
      "text": "這個物價升上升",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 141,
      "start": 284.266,
      "end": 285.933,
      "text": "所以就民眾來說呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 142,
      "start": 285.933,
      "end": 289.066,
      "text": "他的確不會覺得他現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "start": 289.066,
      "end": 291.3,
      "text": "有什麼這個通膨的風險",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "start": 291.633,
      "end": 293.266,
      "text": "他可能反而會覺得",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "start": 293.266,
      "end": 294.466,
      "text": "他要想辦法呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "start": 294.466,
      "end": 296.233,
      "text": "讓自己的未來的生活呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "start": 296.233,
      "end": 297.7,
      "text": "能夠得到保障",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "start": 298.0,
      "end": 300.933,
      "text": "由於日本同時出口與進口",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 149,
      "start": 300.933,
      "end": 302.333,
      "text": "因此日圓貶值既有好處",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 150,
      "start": 302.333,
      "end": 303.833,
      "text": "也有缺點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 151,
      "start": 303.833,
      "end": 305.9,
      "text": "較弱的日圓有利於某些產業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 152,
      "start": 305.9,
      "end": 307.533,
      "text": "但也會提高其他產業的成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 153,
      "start": 307.566,
      "end": 309.6,
      "text": "它自然會影響物價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 154,
      "start": 309.6,
      "end": 312.8,
      "text": "而日本進口許多產品",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 155,
      "start": 312.8,
      "end": 314.366,
      "text": "不過就日本而言",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 156,
      "start": 314.366,
      "end": 315.7,
      "text": "最大的成本項目",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 157,
      "start": 315.7,
      "end": 317.3,
      "text": "就是能源成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "start": 317.3,
      "end": 318.7,
      "text": "正透過政府預算措施",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 159,
      "start": 318.7,
      "end": 320.2,
      "text": "加以抑制",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 160,
      "start": 320.2,
      "end": 321.966,
      "text": "因此通膨影響受到部分緩衝",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 161,
      "start": 321.966,
      "end": 324.5,
      "text": "這也是日本通膨",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 162,
      "start": 324.5,
      "end": 326.3,
      "text": "低於德國及許多其他國家",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 163,
      "start": 326.3,
      "end": 327.433,
      "text": "的原因之一",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 164,
      "start": 327.566,
      "end": 328.766,
      "text": "老師那日本的央行",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 165,
      "start": 328.766,
      "end": 329.6,
      "text": "要怎麼做呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 166,
      "start": 329.6,
      "end": 331.833,
      "text": "因為它過去很堅持要升息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 167,
      "start": 331.833,
      "end": 333.866,
      "text": "當然是因為這個物價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 168,
      "start": 333.866,
      "end": 335.566,
      "text": "其實通膨率非常的高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 169,
      "start": 335.566,
      "end": 336.5,
      "text": "那另外一方面就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 170,
      "start": 336.5,
      "end": 337.966,
      "text": "支撐這個日圓",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 171,
      "start": 337.966,
      "end": 339.266,
      "text": "那現在來看的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 172,
      "start": 339.3,
      "end": 340.733,
      "text": "就是通膨這個數字",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 173,
      "start": 340.733,
      "end": 342.2,
      "text": "好像感覺明顯地下降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 174,
      "start": 342.2,
      "end": 344.5,
      "text": "但是它是不是也不能降息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 175,
      "start": 344.5,
      "end": 345.533,
      "text": "因為它其實",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 176,
      "start": 345.533,
      "end": 347.233,
      "text": "背後這個通膨的因子",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 177,
      "start": 347.233,
      "end": 348.9,
      "text": "還沒有辦法完全去除",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 178,
      "start": 348.9,
      "end": 350.1,
      "text": "再加上如果降息的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 179,
      "start": 350.1,
      "end": 352.1,
      "text": "它的日圓就更弱不是嗎 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 180,
      "start": 352.4,
      "end": 353.466,
      "text": "所以現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 181,
      "start": 353.466,
      "end": 356.066,
      "text": "日本央行其實是進退兩難",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 182,
      "start": 356.566,
      "end": 358.7,
      "text": "因為它現在如果是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 183,
      "start": 358.7,
      "end": 360.566,
      "text": "想要支撐日圓的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 184,
      "start": 360.566,
      "end": 362.066,
      "text": "它應該升息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 185,
      "start": 362.233,
      "end": 363.366,
      "text": "但是一旦升息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 186,
      "start": 363.366,
      "end": 365.933,
      "text": "就會使得企業的經營成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 187,
      "start": 366.166,
      "end": 367.2,
      "text": "跟一般家庭",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 188,
      "start": 367.2,
      "end": 369.033,
      "text": "他的這個利息的負擔",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 189,
      "start": 369.033,
      "end": 370.166,
      "text": "或這個房貸",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 190,
      "start": 370.366,
      "end": 372.666,
      "text": "都跟著加重他的負擔",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 191,
      "start": 372.8,
      "end": 374.1,
      "text": "所以在這個時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 192,
      "start": 374.133,
      "end": 375.466,
      "text": "它不能升息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 193,
      "start": 375.6,
      "end": 376.766,
      "text": "但它不能降息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 194,
      "start": 376.766,
      "end": 378.1,
      "text": "它一降息的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 195,
      "start": 378.1,
      "end": 380.733,
      "text": "那日圓就貶值貶得更厲害",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 196,
      "start": 381.033,
      "end": 382.466,
      "text": "所以在這時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 197,
      "start": 382.466,
      "end": 384.833,
      "text": "它既不能升息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 198,
      "start": 384.833,
      "end": 386.333,
      "text": "也不能降息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 199,
      "start": 386.6,
      "end": 388.133,
      "text": "大概就只能",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 200,
      "start": 388.133,
      "end": 390.2,
      "text": "維持在目前這個狀態了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 201,
      "start": 390.633,
      "end": 394.233,
      "text": "7月31日星期五",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 202,
      "start": 394.966,
      "end": 398.3,
      "text": "日本財務省與美國財政部",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 203,
      "start": 398.3,
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      "id": 204,
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      "id": 205,
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      "id": 206,
      "start": 404.833,
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      "text": "這項聯合干預\n是根據2024年9月發布的\n日美財長聯合聲明所執行",
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    {
      "id": 207,
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      "text": "日美財長聯合聲明所執行",
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    {
      "id": 208,
      "start": 413.733,
      "end": 416.9,
      "text": "目的在於因應近期觀察到的",
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    },
    {
      "id": 209,
      "start": 416.9,
      "end": 419.5,
      "text": "日圓過度波動及無序走勢",
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      "id": 210,
      "start": 419.5,
      "end": 423.3,
      "text": "因為我們與日本關係良好",
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      "id": 211,
      "start": 423.3,
      "end": 424.7,
      "text": "我們的財政實力非常強",
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    },
    {
      "id": 212,
      "start": 424.7,
      "end": 426.666,
      "text": "非常非常強",
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    {
      "id": 213,
      "start": 426.866,
      "end": 429.766,
      "text": "而它們的日圓正在走弱",
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    {
      "id": 214,
      "start": 429.9,
      "end": 431.2,
      "text": "它們希望得到一點協助",
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    {
      "id": 215,
      "start": 431.2,
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      "text": "而我們一向都會支持日本",
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    {
      "id": 216,
      "start": 432.7,
      "end": 435.133,
      "text": "日本一直對我們很好",
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    {
      "id": 217,
      "start": 435.133,
      "end": 437.133,
      "text": "當然 珍珠港事件除外",
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    },
    {
      "id": 218,
      "start": 437.5,
      "end": 438.5,
      "text": "老師那還有另外一點",
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    },
    {
      "id": 219,
      "start": 438.5,
      "end": 439.233,
      "text": "其實還滿特別",
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    {
      "id": 220,
      "start": 439.233,
      "end": 440.233,
      "text": "就是過去",
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    },
    {
      "id": 221,
      "start": 440.233,
      "end": 442.3,
      "text": "大概在前一陣子的時候",
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    },
    {
      "id": 222,
      "start": 442.3,
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      "text": "日圓一度又貶\n而且貶得很深",
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      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
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    {
      "id": 223,
      "start": 444.366,
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      "text": "然後而且貶很深",
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    },
    {
      "id": 224,
      "start": 445.433,
      "end": 447.933,
      "text": "到166元",
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    },
    {
      "id": 225,
      "start": 447.933,
      "end": 449.8,
      "text": "那後來其實美日",
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    },
    {
      "id": 226,
      "start": 449.8,
      "end": 452.0,
      "text": "非常罕現的聯手",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 227,
      "start": 452.0,
      "end": 453.566,
      "text": "去支撐這個日圓",
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    },
    {
      "id": 228,
      "start": 453.566,
      "end": 454.733,
      "text": "老師為什麼這一次",
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    },
    {
      "id": 229,
      "start": 454.733,
      "end": 456.333,
      "text": "美國會出手啊",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 230,
      "start": 456.333,
      "end": 457.366,
      "text": "美國出手",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 231,
      "start": 457.366,
      "end": 459.733,
      "text": "其實不是要幫助日本",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 232,
      "start": 460.066,
      "end": 462.333,
      "text": "是擔心美國自己",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 233,
      "start": 462.933,
      "end": 463.933,
      "text": "因為如果",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 234,
      "start": 463.933,
      "end": 466.2,
      "text": "日圓繼續貶下去的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 235,
      "start": 466.333,
      "end": 468.533,
      "text": "因為日圓過去一向呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 236,
      "start": 468.533,
      "end": 470.3,
      "text": "被當做一個套利工具",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 237,
      "start": 470.633,
      "end": 472.766,
      "text": "因為日本的利率太低了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 238,
      "start": 473.366,
      "end": 475.066,
      "text": "而美國利率很高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 239,
      "start": 475.066,
      "end": 476.233,
      "text": "所以中間就產生了",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 240,
      "start": 476.233,
      "end": 477.933,
      "text": "很大的這個利差",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 241,
      "start": 478.166,
      "end": 479.5,
      "text": "而這個利差呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 242,
      "start": 479.5,
      "end": 480.866,
      "text": "就會使得大家覺得",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 243,
      "start": 480.866,
      "end": 482.4,
      "text": "我如果去日本",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 244,
      "start": 482.4,
      "end": 484.4,
      "text": "我借了便宜的日圓",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 245,
      "start": 484.6,
      "end": 486.3,
      "text": "然後把這個日圓拿去呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 246,
      "start": 486.3,
      "end": 487.6,
      "text": "買美債的話",
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    },
    {
      "id": 247,
      "start": 487.6,
      "end": 489.0,
      "text": "它中間可以賺到很大",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 248,
      "start": 489.0,
      "end": 490.633,
      "text": "的一筆這個利益",
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    },
    {
      "id": 249,
      "start": 490.866,
      "end": 492.733,
      "text": "所以這個利差的存在呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 250,
      "start": 492.733,
      "end": 494.533,
      "text": "就會使得大量的日圓呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 251,
      "start": 494.533,
      "end": 496.366,
      "text": "就從日本流出去",
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    },
    {
      "id": 252,
      "start": 496.533,
      "end": 498.133,
      "text": "去買美債啦",
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    },
    {
      "id": 253,
      "start": 498.133,
      "end": 499.8,
      "text": "跟買美元資產",
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    },
    {
      "id": 254,
      "start": 500.066,
      "end": 500.866,
      "text": "現在呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 255,
      "start": 500.866,
      "end": 503.966,
      "text": "如果日圓貶值貶得更低的話",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 256,
      "start": 504.2,
      "end": 506.3,
      "text": "就會使得這個利差交易呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 257,
      "start": 506.3,
      "end": 507.4,
      "text": "變得更有利",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 258,
      "start": 507.566,
      "end": 508.366,
      "text": "因為它現在可以更",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 259,
      "start": 508.366,
      "end": 510.1,
      "text": "拿更便宜的日圓呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 260,
      "start": 510.1,
      "end": 511.966,
      "text": "去買美元資產",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 261,
      "start": 512.166,
      "end": 513.833,
      "text": "所以美國擔心的就是",
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    },
    {
      "id": 262,
      "start": 513.833,
      "end": 514.9,
      "text": "在這個時候呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 263,
      "start": 514.9,
      "end": 516.333,
      "text": "日本這個可能到最後",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 264,
      "start": 516.333,
      "end": 518.466,
      "text": "它就為了要救日圓呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 265,
      "start": 518.466,
      "end": 520.366,
      "text": "它會大量拋售",
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    },
    {
      "id": 266,
      "start": 520.466,
      "end": 522.5,
      "text": "它手上所擁有的美債",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 267,
      "start": 522.8,
      "end": 523.933,
      "text": "而拿這個資金呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 268,
      "start": 523.933,
      "end": 525.533,
      "text": "回來買日圓",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 269,
      "start": 525.9,
      "end": 527.133,
      "text": "所以美國呢",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
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      "id": 270,
      "start": 527.266,
      "end": 528.866,
      "text": "它很擔心如果",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 271,
      "start": 529.133,
      "end": 530.333,
      "text": "日本真的這樣做",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 272,
      "start": 530.333,
      "end": 532.066,
      "text": "大量的拋售美債的話",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 273,
      "start": 532.2,
      "end": 533.366,
      "text": "美國現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 274,
      "start": 533.366,
      "end": 535.633,
      "text": "是一個很艱困的情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 275,
      "start": 535.866,
      "end": 538.033,
      "text": "美國的這個財政赤字非常大",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 276,
      "start": 538.3,
      "end": 539.566,
      "text": "而且美國的公債已經",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 277,
      "start": 539.566,
      "end": 541.9,
      "text": "累積到這個3兆美元以上",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 278,
      "start": 541.9,
      "end": 543.333,
      "text": "所以這時候如果日本再",
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      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 279,
      "start": 543.333,
      "end": 545.5,
      "text": "大量的這個拋售美債的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 280,
      "start": 545.5,
      "end": 546.7,
      "text": "美國的市場呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 281,
      "start": 546.7,
      "end": 548.3,
      "text": "可能會出現這個美債價格",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 282,
      "start": 548.3,
      "end": 549.666,
      "text": "再進一步大跌",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 283,
      "start": 549.9,
      "end": 551.566,
      "text": "而美債的殖利率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 284,
      "start": 551.566,
      "end": 552.4,
      "text": "進一步升高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 285,
      "start": 552.4,
      "end": 553.1,
      "text": "事實上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 286,
      "start": 553.1,
      "end": 553.7,
      "text": "美債(長天期公債)殖利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 287,
      "start": 553.7,
      "end": 556.166,
      "text": "已經升高升破5%已經很久了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 288,
      "start": 556.333,
      "end": 558.3,
      "text": "現在大概將近5.3%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 289,
      "start": 558.566,
      "end": 561.4,
      "text": "所以是一個很危險的狀態",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 290,
      "start": 562.2,
      "end": 563.333,
      "text": "所以美國呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 291,
      "start": 563.333,
      "end": 565.433,
      "text": "就是為了要想辦法呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 292,
      "start": 565.433,
      "end": 568.1,
      "text": "讓日本不要做這種",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 293,
      "start": 568.1,
      "end": 569.666,
      "text": "拋售美債的事情",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 294,
      "start": 569.866,
      "end": 571.266,
      "text": "就來幫助日本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 295,
      "start": 571.3,
      "end": 573.333,
      "text": "把這個日圓呢 要穩住",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 296,
      "start": 573.633,
      "end": 575.833,
      "text": "財務上的利益",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 297,
      "start": 576.5,
      "end": 577.7,
      "text": "一項財務上的利益",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 298,
      "start": 578.033,
      "end": 578.9,
      "text": "而且我們也……",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 299,
      "start": 578.9,
      "end": 580.0,
      "text": "這對世界經濟也有好處",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 300,
      "start": 580.0,
      "end": 580.666,
      "text": "不過我們會獲利",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 301,
      "start": 580.666,
      "end": 581.633,
      "text": "就像我們對阿根廷",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 302,
      "start": 581.633,
      "end": 582.266,
      "text": "所做的那樣",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 303,
      "start": 582.466,
      "end": 584.133,
      "text": "我曾因此受到批評",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 304,
      "start": 584.133,
      "end": 586.166,
      "text": "但我們在那筆交易中",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 305,
      "start": 586.166,
      "end": 587.633,
      "text": "賺了250億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 306,
      "start": 587.633,
      "end": 588.966,
      "text": "在委內瑞拉",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 307,
      "start": 589.566,
      "end": 592.6,
      "text": "我們會賺進數千億美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 308,
      "start": 592.766,
      "end": 593.966,
      "text": "我談成的都是好交易",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 309,
      "start": 594.1,
      "end": 595.233,
      "text": "但是它的幫助其實",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 310,
      "start": 595.233,
      "end": 596.4,
      "text": "看起來效果很有限啊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 311,
      "start": 596.4,
      "end": 598.766,
      "text": "因為一度上升到166\n可是又跌破了160",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle",
      "text_original": "因為一度上升到155",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "id": 312,
      "start": 598.766,
      "end": 601.266,
      "text": "可是又跌破了160",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 313,
      "start": 601.266,
      "end": 603.3,
      "text": "所以老師它們這樣的出手",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 314,
      "start": 603.3,
      "end": 605.2,
      "text": "就是它背後真正的原因",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 315,
      "start": 605.2,
      "end": 605.866,
      "text": "還是沒有解決",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 316,
      "start": 605.866,
      "end": 609.233,
      "text": "就是美元跟日圓之間的利差",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 317,
      "start": 609.233,
      "end": 610.4,
      "text": "還是這麼的大",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 318,
      "start": 610.4,
      "end": 611.133,
      "text": "所以",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 319,
      "start": 611.333,
      "end": 612.466,
      "text": "其實這還是沒有辦法",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 320,
      "start": 612.466,
      "end": 613.7,
      "text": "解決一個根本的情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 321,
      "start": 613.7,
      "end": 614.566,
      "text": "對不對 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 322,
      "start": 614.566,
      "end": 616.0,
      "text": "這是短暫的而已嘛",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 323,
      "start": 616.0,
      "end": 618.6,
      "text": "它就是緩和了一點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 324,
      "start": 618.7,
      "end": 620.533,
      "text": "拋售美債的情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 325,
      "start": 620.9,
      "end": 623.233,
      "text": "因為它暫時的把日圓",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 326,
      "start": 623.333,
      "end": 624.633,
      "text": "拉起來以後呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 327,
      "start": 624.7,
      "end": 626.1,
      "text": "就讓當初這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 328,
      "start": 626.166,
      "end": 628.2,
      "text": "我們很擔心這個套利交易呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 329,
      "start": 628.233,
      "end": 629.966,
      "text": "能夠稍微緩和一下",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 330,
      "start": 630.166,
      "end": 630.933,
      "text": "可是呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 331,
      "start": 630.933,
      "end": 632.566,
      "text": "這種干預當然是無效的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 332,
      "start": 632.566,
      "end": 633.5,
      "text": "一方面就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 333,
      "start": 633.633,
      "end": 635.466,
      "text": "美國有多少錢可以干預",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 334,
      "start": 635.7,
      "end": 636.7,
      "text": "第二個就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 335,
      "start": 636.833,
      "end": 638.766,
      "text": "這種利差的存在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 336,
      "start": 638.766,
      "end": 641.633,
      "text": "它已經是一個客觀的事實",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 337,
      "start": 642.1,
      "end": 643.666,
      "text": "這個利差只要存在",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 338,
      "start": 643.766,
      "end": 645.3,
      "text": "就會有套利交易",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 339,
      "start": 645.466,
      "end": 646.766,
      "text": "而這個套利交易呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 340,
      "start": 646.766,
      "end": 648.6,
      "text": "就會使得日圓貶值",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 341,
      "start": 648.866,
      "end": 650.866,
      "text": "所以它能夠拉一時",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 342,
      "start": 651.1,
      "end": 653.066,
      "text": "但是拉不了很久",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 343,
      "start": 653.3,
      "end": 654.133,
      "text": "而這個情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 344,
      "start": 654.133,
      "end": 655.066,
      "text": "我們現在看到",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 345,
      "start": 655.3,
      "end": 657.066,
      "text": "這個日圓又回到160",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 346,
      "start": 657.3,
      "end": 658.4,
      "text": "而事實上呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 347,
      "start": 658.5,
      "end": 660.2,
      "text": "在1998年",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 348,
      "start": 660.4,
      "end": 662.533,
      "text": "美國也曾經做過這個事情",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 349,
      "start": 663.0,
      "end": 663.9,
      "text": "它當時呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 350,
      "start": 663.9,
      "end": 666.433,
      "text": "也跟日本聯手拉抬日圓",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 351,
      "start": 666.7,
      "end": 669.833,
      "text": "把日圓從146對1美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 352,
      "start": 670.0,
      "end": 672.833,
      "text": "拉到大概135對1美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 353,
      "start": 672.833,
      "end": 674.266,
      "text": "可是兩個月之後",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 354,
      "start": 674.566,
      "end": 676.366,
      "text": "又回到147",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 355,
      "start": 676.8,
      "end": 679.7,
      "text": "所以前面的這個前車之鑒呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 356,
      "start": 679.7,
      "end": 680.933,
      "text": "已經看得出來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 357,
      "start": 680.933,
      "end": 682.233,
      "text": "這個是無效的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 358,
      "start": 682.366,
      "end": 683.166,
      "text": "所以這一次呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 359,
      "start": 683.166,
      "end": 684.9,
      "text": "同樣是徒勞無功",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 360,
      "start": 685.566,
      "end": 686.966,
      "text": "所以老師它們最根本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 361,
      "start": 686.966,
      "end": 688.233,
      "text": "要能夠解決",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 362,
      "start": 688.233,
      "end": 690.2,
      "text": "可能就是看背後那個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 363,
      "start": 690.2,
      "end": 692.6,
      "text": "造成因果關係的這個原因",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 364,
      "start": 692.6,
      "end": 693.566,
      "text": "那原因就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 365,
      "start": 693.566,
      "end": 696.566,
      "text": "如果日本央行把利息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 366,
      "start": 696.833,
      "end": 699.266,
      "text": "上升到跟美國差不多的時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 367,
      "start": 699.266,
      "end": 700.433,
      "text": "對日圓就會有一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 368,
      "start": 700.433,
      "end": 701.566,
      "text": "很明顯的支撐",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 369,
      "start": 701.566,
      "end": 703.833,
      "text": "那相對就不會有利率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 370,
      "start": 703.833,
      "end": 705.333,
      "text": "上面這麼大的落差",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 371,
      "start": 705.333,
      "end": 706.733,
      "text": "不會有這個利差",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 372,
      "start": 706.833,
      "end": 708.7,
      "text": "這是一個解決的根本方法 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 373,
      "start": 708.7,
      "end": 710.6,
      "text": "但是不可能 對 是不可能",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 374,
      "start": 710.6,
      "end": 711.966,
      "text": "因為如果這樣的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 375,
      "start": 711.966,
      "end": 714.1,
      "text": "這個日本整個經濟就垮掉了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 376,
      "start": 714.333,
      "end": 715.2,
      "text": "而且呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 377,
      "start": 715.2,
      "end": 716.966,
      "text": "日本到目前為止呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 378,
      "start": 716.966,
      "end": 718.866,
      "text": "它只升息一點點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 379,
      "start": 719.2,
      "end": 721.466,
      "text": "它就已經造成很大的後果了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 380,
      "start": 721.866,
      "end": 724.7,
      "text": "而且它如果只升一點點的話呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 381,
      "start": 724.866,
      "end": 727.3,
      "text": "根本讓大家沒有感覺",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 382,
      "start": 727.733,
      "end": 729.566,
      "text": "所以這個套利交易呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 383,
      "start": 729.566,
      "end": 730.966,
      "text": "不會受到影響",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 384,
      "start": 731.233,
      "end": 732.566,
      "text": "而大家又都知道日本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 385,
      "start": 732.566,
      "end": 734.633,
      "text": "日本央行是不可能大量升息的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 386,
      "start": 734.733,
      "end": 736.533,
      "text": "所以大家根本不在乎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 387,
      "start": 736.533,
      "end": 738.033,
      "text": "它升息不升息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 388,
      "start": 738.366,
      "end": 739.833,
      "text": "所以大概另外一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 389,
      "start": 739.833,
      "end": 742.366,
      "text": "可以寄望就是美國降息了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 390,
      "start": 743.033,
      "end": 744.266,
      "text": "可是以目前看起來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 391,
      "start": 744.266,
      "end": 744.8,
      "text": "也是不太可能",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 392,
      "start": 744.8,
      "end": 747.2,
      "text": "如果美國經濟突然垮了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 393,
      "start": 747.466,
      "end": 748.866,
      "text": "美國這個聯準會呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 394,
      "start": 748.866,
      "end": 749.9,
      "text": "就不得不出手",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 395,
      "start": 749.9,
      "end": 751.233,
      "text": "大幅度降息",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 396,
      "start": 751.366,
      "end": 752.466,
      "text": "到那個時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 397,
      "start": 752.466,
      "end": 754.0,
      "text": "利差會縮小一點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 398,
      "start": 754.1,
      "end": 756.333,
      "text": "但是要拉到跟日本一樣低",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 399,
      "start": 756.333,
      "end": 757.6,
      "text": "還是不可能的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 400,
      "start": 758.166,
      "end": 759.4,
      "text": "所以老師還有沒有一個辦法",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 401,
      "start": 759.4,
      "end": 761.2,
      "text": "就是所謂的固定匯率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 402,
      "start": 761.366,
      "end": 762.633,
      "text": "如果它是固定的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 403,
      "start": 762.633,
      "end": 764.5,
      "text": "把這個匯率抓在",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 404,
      "start": 764.5,
      "end": 767.1,
      "text": "例如說1(美元)比140(日圓)",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 405,
      "start": 767.1,
      "end": 768.566,
      "text": "這樣可以嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 406,
      "start": 769.166,
      "end": 770.466,
      "text": "這樣對日本會產生什麼影響",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 407,
      "start": 770.466,
      "end": 773.3,
      "text": "對 固定匯率是有很多問題的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 408,
      "start": 773.6,
      "end": 774.733,
      "text": "固定匯率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 409,
      "start": 774.733,
      "end": 777.166,
      "text": "就日本目前情況來看的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 410,
      "start": 777.166,
      "end": 779.733,
      "text": "如果它是這樣的固定匯率的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 411,
      "start": 779.9,
      "end": 781.9,
      "text": "日本的出口可能馬上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 412,
      "start": 781.9,
      "end": 783.1,
      "text": "就瓦解了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 413,
      "start": 783.3,
      "end": 786.533,
      "text": "因為它現在160的這個匯率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 414,
      "start": 786.533,
      "end": 787.566,
      "text": "它的出口呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 415,
      "start": 787.566,
      "end": 788.9,
      "text": "還有競爭力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 416,
      "start": 789.166,
      "end": 791.2,
      "text": "你如果把這個匯率硬往上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 417,
      "start": 791.2,
      "end": 792.766,
      "text": "拉到140的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 418,
      "start": 792.766,
      "end": 794.3,
      "text": "等於是升值多少呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 419,
      "start": 794.433,
      "end": 797.0,
      "text": "升值了大概12.5%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 420,
      "start": 797.566,
      "end": 800.333,
      "text": "一個貨幣升值12.5%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 421,
      "start": 800.333,
      "end": 802.9,
      "text": "那就是毀滅性的升值",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 422,
      "start": 803.033,
      "end": 804.566,
      "text": "你不要說12.5%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 423,
      "start": 804.7,
      "end": 807.266,
      "text": "升值5%就已經很不得了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 424,
      "start": 807.433,
      "end": 808.333,
      "text": "所以",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 425,
      "start": 808.566,
      "end": 810.1,
      "text": "日本不可能把這個匯率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 426,
      "start": 810.1,
      "end": 811.233,
      "text": "拉到那邊去",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 427,
      "start": 811.466,
      "end": 813.366,
      "text": "但是如果要固定在160",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 428,
      "start": 813.366,
      "end": 814.8,
      "text": "也許是可能的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 429,
      "start": 815.1,
      "end": 816.533,
      "text": "固定在160的話呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 430,
      "start": 816.533,
      "end": 818.133,
      "text": "它就要承擔就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 431,
      "start": 818.133,
      "end": 821.133,
      "text": "如果這種套利交易繼續進行",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 432,
      "start": 821.266,
      "end": 824.1,
      "text": "而本來有讓這個日圓再往下",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 433,
      "start": 824.266,
      "end": 825.466,
      "text": "貶值的壓力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 434,
      "start": 825.666,
      "end": 826.733,
      "text": "而它現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 435,
      "start": 826.733,
      "end": 828.333,
      "text": "把它的匯率固定住",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 436,
      "start": 828.366,
      "end": 829.766,
      "text": "不讓它貶值的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 437,
      "start": 829.766,
      "end": 831.433,
      "text": "那不讓它貶值的後果呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 438,
      "start": 831.433,
      "end": 834.266,
      "text": "就是它的出口就會受到打擊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 439,
      "start": 834.433,
      "end": 836.9,
      "text": "因為它應該到164",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 440,
      "start": 837.0,
      "end": 838.666,
      "text": "出口才能夠平衡的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 441,
      "start": 838.766,
      "end": 839.9,
      "text": "現在到160",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 442,
      "start": 840.033,
      "end": 841.2,
      "text": "它平衡不了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 443,
      "start": 841.2,
      "end": 843.033,
      "text": "它照樣會受到傷害",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 444,
      "start": 843.233,
      "end": 845.0,
      "text": "所以固定匯率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 445,
      "start": 845.0,
      "end": 847.233,
      "text": "就是要犧牲本國的這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 446,
      "start": 847.4,
      "end": 849.266,
      "text": "進出口的競爭力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 447,
      "start": 849.433,
      "end": 850.0,
      "text": "所以老師這也是過去",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 448,
      "start": 850.0,
      "end": 850.866,
      "text": "所以很多國家都已經",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 449,
      "start": 850.866,
      "end": 851.866,
      "text": "放棄固定匯率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 450,
      "start": 851.866,
      "end": 853.033,
      "text": "包括台灣在內 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 451,
      "start": 853.033,
      "end": 854.466,
      "text": "我記得老師之前有講到說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 452,
      "start": 854.466,
      "end": 856.066,
      "text": "我們好像是1比40",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 453,
      "start": 856.066,
      "end": 858.2,
      "text": "後來就取消了嘛 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 454,
      "start": 858.5,
      "end": 862.066,
      "text": "現在已經到1比32、1比31",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 455,
      "start": 862.6,
      "end": 863.733,
      "text": "所以老師是不是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 456,
      "start": 863.833,
      "end": 865.7,
      "text": "對外貿易越頻繁",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 457,
      "start": 865.7,
      "end": 868.3,
      "text": "而且量能比較大的國家",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 458,
      "start": 868.3,
      "end": 869.733,
      "text": "就更不能 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 459,
      "start": 869.733,
      "end": 871.233,
      "text": "採所謂的固定匯率 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 460,
      "start": 871.4,
      "end": 873.633,
      "text": "因為它的這個匯率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 461,
      "start": 873.833,
      "end": 876.766,
      "text": "決定它的進出口的競爭力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 462,
      "start": 876.966,
      "end": 879.233,
      "text": "如果它以出口競爭力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 463,
      "start": 879.3,
      "end": 881.466,
      "text": "來維持經濟成長的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 464,
      "start": 881.533,
      "end": 882.8,
      "text": "它就不敢絲毫",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 465,
      "start": 882.8,
      "end": 884.466,
      "text": "讓它的貨幣升值",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 466,
      "start": 884.7,
      "end": 886.333,
      "text": "所以台灣其其實一直",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 467,
      "start": 886.333,
      "end": 888.6,
      "text": "大家都認為台灣的央行呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 468,
      "start": 888.6,
      "end": 890.3,
      "text": "好像有貶值傾向",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 469,
      "start": 890.5,
      "end": 891.8,
      "text": "就是這個原因",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 470,
      "start": 892.366,
      "end": 893.9,
      "text": "老師那對於就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 471,
      "start": 893.933,
      "end": 896.333,
      "text": "例如說想要去日本旅遊啊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 472,
      "start": 896.333,
      "end": 899.2,
      "text": "然後或者是想要換日圓啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 473,
      "start": 899.2,
      "end": 900.6,
      "text": "或者是持有日股的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 474,
      "start": 900.6,
      "end": 901.5,
      "text": "民眾來說的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 475,
      "start": 901.5,
      "end": 902.633,
      "text": "有什麼樣的建議嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 476,
      "start": 902.633,
      "end": 904.3,
      "text": "以目前這個情況的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 477,
      "start": 904.3,
      "end": 905.266,
      "text": "如果就我們剛才",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 478,
      "start": 905.266,
      "end": 906.733,
      "text": "這樣的推論的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 479,
      "start": 907.1,
      "end": 909.4,
      "text": "你想要去日本旅遊啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 480,
      "start": 909.4,
      "end": 911.7,
      "text": "或者是買日本股票等等呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 481,
      "start": 912.0,
      "end": 914.633,
      "text": "你原來擔心就是日圓升值",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 482,
      "start": 914.766,
      "end": 916.233,
      "text": "可能會使得它的價錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 483,
      "start": 916.233,
      "end": 917.766,
      "text": "變貴了 對不對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 484,
      "start": 917.766,
      "end": 920.1,
      "text": "使得在旅遊的成本提高了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 485,
      "start": 920.1,
      "end": 921.166,
      "text": "可是如果照我們剛才",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 486,
      "start": 921.166,
      "end": 922.233,
      "text": "這樣的推論呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 487,
      "start": 922.333,
      "end": 925.6,
      "text": "日圓根本不可能保持在高位",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 488,
      "start": 925.8,
      "end": 929.033,
      "text": "它馬上就回到160左右",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 489,
      "start": 929.333,
      "end": 930.166,
      "text": "這個時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 490,
      "start": 930.166,
      "end": 931.9,
      "text": "你就不需要擔心了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 491,
      "start": 932.1,
      "end": 934.033,
      "text": "因為它的這個價位呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 492,
      "start": 934.033,
      "end": 936.3,
      "text": "如果在160左右",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 493,
      "start": 936.3,
      "end": 937.866,
      "text": "或者稍微低一點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 494,
      "start": 938.1,
      "end": 940.5,
      "text": "跟現在情況沒有什麼差別",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 495,
      "start": 940.633,
      "end": 942.766,
      "text": "所以你不需要做任何的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 496,
      "start": 942.766,
      "end": 944.333,
      "text": "預先的這個準備",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 497,
      "start": 944.466,
      "end": 946.133,
      "text": "因為像之前我有看那個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 498,
      "start": 946.3,
      "end": 947.666,
      "text": "台幣對日圓的部分",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 499,
      "start": 947.666,
      "end": 949.666,
      "text": "就一度升到0.21",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 500,
      "start": 949.666,
      "end": 950.5,
      "text": "突然非常高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 501,
      "start": 950.5,
      "end": 951.466,
      "text": "但是後來開始",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 502,
      "start": 951.466,
      "end": 952.766,
      "text": "欸 慢慢往下降",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 503,
      "start": 952.766,
      "end": 954.7,
      "text": "所以以老師的角度來講的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 504,
      "start": 954.7,
      "end": 956.2,
      "text": "它其實下降的機率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 505,
      "start": 956.2,
      "end": 958.2,
      "text": "會比上升還要高 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 506,
      "start": 958.2,
      "end": 959.3,
      "text": "那個時候其實就等於",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 507,
      "start": 959.3,
      "end": 961.066,
      "text": "是一個高峰了啦 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 508,
      "start": 961.233,
      "end": 963.4,
      "text": "尤其是它的經濟情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 509,
      "start": 963.4,
      "end": 966.133,
      "text": "看起來是這麼不樂觀",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 510,
      "start": 966.7,
      "end": 969.233,
      "text": "所以它要再進一步要",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 511,
      "start": 969.7,
      "end": 971.033,
      "text": "提高它的這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 512,
      "start": 971.033,
      "end": 972.566,
      "text": "日圓的這個匯率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 513,
      "start": 972.9,
      "end": 974.433,
      "text": "機會可能是比較小",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 514,
      "start": 974.833,
      "end": 977.0,
      "text": "如果它的經濟看起來呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 515,
      "start": 977.0,
      "end": 978.533,
      "text": "更往下走的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 516,
      "start": 978.8,
      "end": 980.9,
      "text": "可能它的這個貶值可能性呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 517,
      "start": 980.9,
      "end": 982.3,
      "text": "會比較大一點",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 518,
      "start": 982.7,
      "end": 984.5,
      "text": "老師那最後來看台灣的部分",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 519,
      "start": 984.5,
      "end": 986.133,
      "text": "台灣其實在我們的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 520,
      "start": 986.133,
      "end": 987.533,
      "text": "第二季經濟成長率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 521,
      "start": 987.533,
      "end": 988.366,
      "text": "同樣很驚人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 522,
      "start": 988.366,
      "end": 990.366,
      "text": "就是12.93%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 523,
      "start": 990.366,
      "end": 992.8,
      "text": "那今年全年已經",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 524,
      "start": 992.8,
      "end": 994.466,
      "text": "預估就是超過10%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 525,
      "start": 994.5,
      "end": 996.533,
      "text": "11.05%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 526,
      "start": 996.633,
      "end": 998.1,
      "text": "那我們在出口的部分",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 527,
      "start": 998.1,
      "end": 1000.4,
      "text": "年增32.9%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 528,
      "start": 1000.4,
      "end": 1002.433,
      "text": "一樣是數據非常的亮眼",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 529,
      "start": 1002.433,
      "end": 1004.766,
      "text": "那在通膨的部分是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 530,
      "start": 1004.766,
      "end": 1006.533,
      "text": "年增2.54%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 531,
      "start": 1006.533,
      "end": 1007.3,
      "text": "其實都始終",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 532,
      "start": 1007.3,
      "end": 1009.4,
      "text": "超過央行2%的標準",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 533,
      "start": 1009.4,
      "end": 1010.3,
      "text": "那更恐怖",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 534,
      "start": 1010.3,
      "end": 1012.466,
      "text": "其實也是一個很大的警訊就在",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 535,
      "start": 1012.466,
      "end": 1015.8,
      "text": "其實也是一個很大的警訊\n就在PPI年增是16.94%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle",
      "text_original": "PPI年增是16.94%",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "id": 536,
      "start": 1015.8,
      "end": 1017.0,
      "text": "那之後可以問一下老師",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 537,
      "start": 1017.0,
      "end": 1019.066,
      "text": "這到最後是不會傳導到物價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 538,
      "start": 1019.066,
      "end": 1020.133,
      "text": "那先來看我們的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 539,
      "start": 1020.133,
      "end": 1021.6,
      "text": "經濟成長率的部分",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 540,
      "start": 1021.6,
      "end": 1023.733,
      "text": "老師那為什麼對大家的薪資",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 541,
      "start": 1023.733,
      "end": 1025.533,
      "text": "還有感受完全都無感呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 542,
      "start": 1025.733,
      "end": 1027.9,
      "text": "這個其實我們大家都很清楚",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 543,
      "start": 1028.366,
      "end": 1031.133,
      "text": "因為這個出口的這個貢獻",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 544,
      "start": 1031.133,
      "end": 1034.633,
      "text": "幾乎全部都在AI 半導體",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 545,
      "start": 1035.233,
      "end": 1037.366,
      "text": "在這兩類產業之外呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 546,
      "start": 1037.5,
      "end": 1039.066,
      "text": "其他傳產都是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 547,
      "start": 1039.5,
      "end": 1042.5,
      "text": "我們說一片這個淒慘",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 548,
      "start": 1043.166,
      "end": 1046.266,
      "text": "所以它的這種成長呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 549,
      "start": 1046.266,
      "end": 1048.6,
      "text": "分配是非常不平均的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 550,
      "start": 1048.733,
      "end": 1051.933,
      "text": "因為在跟AI跟半導體有關的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 551,
      "start": 1051.933,
      "end": 1053.2,
      "text": "這個就業者呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 552,
      "start": 1053.366,
      "end": 1055.0,
      "text": "大概只占15%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 553,
      "start": 1055.2,
      "end": 1055.766,
      "text": "可是呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 554,
      "start": 1055.766,
      "end": 1058.366,
      "text": "剩下這80、90%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 555,
      "start": 1058.366,
      "end": 1059.6,
      "text": "都在其他行業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 556,
      "start": 1059.6,
      "end": 1061.366,
      "text": "尤其是有60%呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 557,
      "start": 1061.4,
      "end": 1062.6,
      "text": "都在服務業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 558,
      "start": 1062.833,
      "end": 1064.366,
      "text": "而服務業我們都知道",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 559,
      "start": 1064.366,
      "end": 1065.9,
      "text": "在這段時間是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 560,
      "start": 1066.166,
      "end": 1067.733,
      "text": "最慘的一個行業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 561,
      "start": 1067.733,
      "end": 1070.4,
      "text": "它的薪資呢 是嚴重偏低",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 562,
      "start": 1070.6,
      "end": 1073.5,
      "text": "所以60%的人嚴重偏低",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 563,
      "start": 1073.5,
      "end": 1074.733,
      "text": "只有10幾%的人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 564,
      "start": 1074.733,
      "end": 1077.0,
      "text": "他的這個收入嚴重偏高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 565,
      "start": 1077.166,
      "end": 1078.966,
      "text": "那這是一個什麼社會呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 566,
      "start": 1079.2,
      "end": 1082.2,
      "text": "這是一個非常不平均的社會",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 567,
      "start": 1082.4,
      "end": 1084.066,
      "text": "所以有7成的人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 568,
      "start": 1084.066,
      "end": 1085.266,
      "text": "他的這工資呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 569,
      "start": 1085.266,
      "end": 1086.966,
      "text": "達不到平均薪資",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 570,
      "start": 1086.966,
      "end": 1088.266,
      "text": "那就表示呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 571,
      "start": 1088.266,
      "end": 1089.6,
      "text": "7成的人呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 572,
      "start": 1089.6,
      "end": 1091.7,
      "text": "他都落到了平均薪資以下",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 573,
      "start": 1091.7,
      "end": 1093.066,
      "text": "就表示平均薪資呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 574,
      "start": 1093.066,
      "end": 1096.7,
      "text": "是被剩下這10幾%的人拉高的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 575,
      "start": 1097.433,
      "end": 1099.233,
      "text": "這樣的一個經濟情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 576,
      "start": 1099.366,
      "end": 1101.466,
      "text": "當然對整個社會來說呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 577,
      "start": 1101.7,
      "end": 1103.066,
      "text": "不是很好的事情",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 578,
      "start": 1103.366,
      "end": 1105.7,
      "text": "因為如果大多數人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 579,
      "start": 1105.933,
      "end": 1108.233,
      "text": "他的所得都偏低了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 580,
      "start": 1108.366,
      "end": 1111.2,
      "text": "而通貨膨脹率呢 又開始",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 581,
      "start": 1111.2,
      "end": 1113.233,
      "text": "又升到這麼高的這個狀態",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 582,
      "start": 1113.233,
      "end": 1114.166,
      "text": "就表示呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 583,
      "start": 1114.166,
      "end": 1115.366,
      "text": "大多數人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 584,
      "start": 1115.366,
      "end": 1118.866,
      "text": "他的真實的所得是下降的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 585,
      "start": 1119.733,
      "end": 1121.066,
      "text": "只有少數人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 586,
      "start": 1121.066,
      "end": 1122.7,
      "text": "他的真實所得升高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 587,
      "start": 1122.7,
      "end": 1123.733,
      "text": "升高了很多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 588,
      "start": 1123.733,
      "end": 1125.366,
      "text": "但是這些人呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 589,
      "start": 1125.366,
      "end": 1126.6,
      "text": "他所做的消費",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 590,
      "start": 1126.633,
      "end": 1128.266,
      "text": "跟一般人是不一樣的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 591,
      "start": 1128.7,
      "end": 1131.433,
      "text": "他都是用於這個奢侈品啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 592,
      "start": 1131.633,
      "end": 1133.866,
      "text": "或者高價的房屋啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 593,
      "start": 1134.0,
      "end": 1136.1,
      "text": "或者高價的這個消費品",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 594,
      "start": 1136.1,
      "end": 1137.366,
      "text": "這種東西上面",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 595,
      "start": 1137.633,
      "end": 1141.033,
      "text": "這不是跟一般人的生活有關的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 596,
      "start": 1141.133,
      "end": 1142.833,
      "text": "所以他會把那些東西的價格",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 597,
      "start": 1142.833,
      "end": 1143.666,
      "text": "會拉高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 598,
      "start": 1143.8,
      "end": 1145.666,
      "text": "但是一般大眾呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 599,
      "start": 1145.666,
      "end": 1146.666,
      "text": "他真正",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 600,
      "start": 1146.766,
      "end": 1148.866,
      "text": "他所面對這些商品呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 601,
      "start": 1148.866,
      "end": 1150.166,
      "text": "他們其實呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 602,
      "start": 1150.166,
      "end": 1152.0,
      "text": "感受不到任何好處",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 603,
      "start": 1152.266,
      "end": 1154.233,
      "text": "所以這樣一個經濟情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 604,
      "start": 1154.233,
      "end": 1155.2,
      "text": "事實上",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 605,
      "start": 1155.4,
      "end": 1158.433,
      "text": "不是一個正常的經濟情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 606,
      "start": 1158.566,
      "end": 1161.1,
      "text": "當然絕對不是理想的經濟情況",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 607,
      "start": 1161.3,
      "end": 1162.566,
      "text": "而這個情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 608,
      "start": 1162.733,
      "end": 1164.466,
      "text": "也沒有辦法扭轉",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 609,
      "start": 1164.6,
      "end": 1165.666,
      "text": "因為現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 610,
      "start": 1166.0,
      "end": 1168.5,
      "text": "台灣就是靠著這個AI",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 611,
      "start": 1168.5,
      "end": 1170.7,
      "text": "跟這個半導體 晶片",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 612,
      "start": 1170.7,
      "end": 1173.266,
      "text": "靠這個行業呢 在生存",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 613,
      "start": 1173.266,
      "end": 1173.933,
      "text": "我們的出口",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 614,
      "start": 1173.933,
      "end": 1175.366,
      "text": "都集中在這個地方",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 615,
      "start": 1175.5,
      "end": 1176.233,
      "text": "而我們呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 616,
      "start": 1176.233,
      "end": 1177.466,
      "text": "因為這個原因呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 617,
      "start": 1177.466,
      "end": 1179.0,
      "text": "就跟美國能夠同步的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 618,
      "start": 1179.0,
      "end": 1180.166,
      "text": "再往上走",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 619,
      "start": 1181.0,
      "end": 1182.866,
      "text": "把這個部分如果再拿掉的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 620,
      "start": 1182.966,
      "end": 1185.066,
      "text": "台灣就一無是處了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 621,
      "start": 1185.3,
      "end": 1187.1,
      "text": "所以那80幾%的人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 622,
      "start": 1187.1,
      "end": 1189.066,
      "text": "他薪資不僅是沒有增加",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 623,
      "start": 1189.066,
      "end": 1191.133,
      "text": "那現在還得應付",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 624,
      "start": 1191.133,
      "end": 1194.0,
      "text": "超過2.5%以上的通膨",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 625,
      "start": 1194.033,
      "end": 1195.3,
      "text": "那進一步來看的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 626,
      "start": 1195.3,
      "end": 1196.033,
      "text": "這個PPI(生產者物價指數)",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 627,
      "start": 1196.033,
      "end": 1197.7,
      "text": "年增16.94%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 628,
      "start": 1197.7,
      "end": 1199.266,
      "text": "老師到最後還是會",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 629,
      "start": 1199.266,
      "end": 1200.566,
      "text": "反映到物價對不對 當然",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 630,
      "start": 1200.566,
      "end": 1201.933,
      "text": "還是會傳導 當然",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 631,
      "start": 1201.933,
      "end": 1203.266,
      "text": "而且企業它能撐多久",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 632,
      "start": 1203.266,
      "end": 1205.366,
      "text": "因為企業不能撐多久",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 633,
      "start": 1205.533,
      "end": 1207.4,
      "text": "企業要撐的話就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 634,
      "start": 1207.4,
      "end": 1208.4,
      "text": "一開始呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 635,
      "start": 1208.4,
      "end": 1210.333,
      "text": "就成本上升這麼高",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 636,
      "start": 1210.566,
      "end": 1213.366,
      "text": "它一定會壓縮到它的利潤",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 637,
      "start": 1213.5,
      "end": 1214.466,
      "text": "所以一開始呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 638,
      "start": 1214.466,
      "end": 1216.966,
      "text": "你就看到它的利潤就下降了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 639,
      "start": 1217.166,
      "end": 1218.0,
      "text": "然後呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 640,
      "start": 1218.0,
      "end": 1220.566,
      "text": "企業它用它的庫存",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 641,
      "start": 1220.933,
      "end": 1222.733,
      "text": "它過去比較低價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 642,
      "start": 1222.733,
      "end": 1224.033,
      "text": "買進來的庫存",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 643,
      "start": 1224.266,
      "end": 1226.5,
      "text": "用這庫存來生產產品",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 644,
      "start": 1226.733,
      "end": 1227.866,
      "text": "但這庫存呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 645,
      "start": 1227.9,
      "end": 1229.0,
      "text": "大概3個月",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 646,
      "start": 1229.4,
      "end": 1231.4,
      "text": "頂多3個月就用完了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 647,
      "start": 1231.8,
      "end": 1233.166,
      "text": "用完了庫存之後呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 648,
      "start": 1233.166,
      "end": 1234.233,
      "text": "它只好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 649,
      "start": 1234.233,
      "end": 1235.666,
      "text": "按照它現在",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 650,
      "start": 1236.0,
      "end": 1238.766,
      "text": "這些原物料進貨的成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 651,
      "start": 1239.166,
      "end": 1242.2,
      "text": "來加在它的產品的成本上面",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 652,
      "start": 1242.5,
      "end": 1244.533,
      "text": "所以它的這個產品單價",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 653,
      "start": 1244.533,
      "end": 1245.6,
      "text": "就升高了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 654,
      "start": 1245.9,
      "end": 1247.433,
      "text": "所以這種情況呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 655,
      "start": 1247.533,
      "end": 1249.866,
      "text": "大概不會支撐多久",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 656,
      "start": 1250.4,
      "end": 1252.866,
      "text": "可能在一兩個月之內呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 657,
      "start": 1252.866,
      "end": 1254.2,
      "text": "你會看到一些這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 658,
      "start": 1254.366,
      "end": 1256.8,
      "text": "這些加工品啦等等的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 659,
      "start": 1256.8,
      "end": 1258.566,
      "text": "它因為它這個原材料呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 660,
      "start": 1258.566,
      "end": 1261.4,
      "text": "它的這個上升的特別明顯",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 661,
      "start": 1261.566,
      "end": 1263.233,
      "text": "所以它們很快就反應",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 662,
      "start": 1263.4,
      "end": 1265.333,
      "text": "然後到2、3個月之後呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 663,
      "start": 1265.333,
      "end": 1266.433,
      "text": "它會反映到一般的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 664,
      "start": 1266.433,
      "end": 1267.633,
      "text": "這個餐飲啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 665,
      "start": 1267.8,
      "end": 1268.766,
      "text": "或者服務業了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 666,
      "start": 1268.766,
      "end": 1270.366,
      "text": "然後再往下呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 667,
      "start": 1270.366,
      "end": 1272.666,
      "text": "就會反映到這個交通成本哪",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 668,
      "start": 1272.666,
      "end": 1274.0,
      "text": "運輸成本哪",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 669,
      "start": 1274.0,
      "end": 1275.5,
      "text": "公共服務成本",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 670,
      "start": 1275.7,
      "end": 1278.6,
      "text": "所以大概不會超過6個月了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 671,
      "start": 1278.933,
      "end": 1281.3,
      "text": "就是在3個月到6個月之間呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 672,
      "start": 1281.4,
      "end": 1283.7,
      "text": "這個快速增加的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 673,
      "start": 1283.7,
      "end": 1284.9,
      "text": "原物料成本呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 674,
      "start": 1284.9,
      "end": 1286.366,
      "text": "就全部都反映在",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 675,
      "start": 1286.366,
      "end": 1289.233,
      "text": "一般人日常生活當中",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 676,
      "start": 1289.5,
      "end": 1290.966,
      "text": "那像老師剛有提到說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 677,
      "start": 1290.966,
      "end": 1292.2,
      "text": "像AI的紅利",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 678,
      "start": 1292.2,
      "end": 1294.266,
      "text": "沒有辦法普及到所有的人",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 679,
      "start": 1294.3,
      "end": 1296.166,
      "text": "那可能就是10幾%的人口",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 680,
      "start": 1296.166,
      "end": 1297.8,
      "text": "他們是最大的獲益者",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 681,
      "start": 1297.8,
      "end": 1299.5,
      "text": "那我看這個賴清德總統",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 682,
      "start": 1299.5,
      "end": 1301.166,
      "text": "他有說要把這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 683,
      "start": 1301.166,
      "end": 1302.5,
      "text": "就是AI紅利",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 684,
      "start": 1302.5,
      "end": 1304.5,
      "text": "然後每個人普發1萬元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 685,
      "start": 1304.5,
      "end": 1306.733,
      "text": "老師支持這樣子的做法嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 686,
      "start": 1306.966,
      "end": 1308.4,
      "text": "他這樣的說法呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 687,
      "start": 1308.4,
      "end": 1310.2,
      "text": "他的主要的根據就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 688,
      "start": 1310.366,
      "end": 1312.566,
      "text": "因為這個AI紅利這個部分呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 689,
      "start": 1312.566,
      "end": 1314.1,
      "text": "讓稅收增加了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 690,
      "start": 1314.5,
      "end": 1315.7,
      "text": "而這個稅收增加呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 691,
      "start": 1315.7,
      "end": 1317.6,
      "text": "就會使得這個預算的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 692,
      "start": 1317.6,
      "end": 1320.566,
      "text": "這個虧損呢 就會減少",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 693,
      "start": 1320.566,
      "end": 1321.466,
      "text": "所以他說",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 694,
      "start": 1321.466,
      "end": 1322.266,
      "text": "他認為呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 695,
      "start": 1322.266,
      "end": 1323.8,
      "text": "這個稅收增加的部分呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 696,
      "start": 1323.8,
      "end": 1325.033,
      "text": "就拿出來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 697,
      "start": 1325.033,
      "end": 1328.8,
      "text": "讓全民普遍能夠得到一點好處",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 698,
      "start": 1329.166,
      "end": 1331.633,
      "text": "當然也是在支撐整體經濟",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 699,
      "start": 1331.633,
      "end": 1332.766,
      "text": "因為現在",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 700,
      "start": 1332.766,
      "end": 1335.633,
      "text": "如果除了這個高科技行業之外",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 701,
      "start": 1335.766,
      "end": 1337.533,
      "text": "其他都這麼悲慘的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 702,
      "start": 1337.766,
      "end": 1338.966,
      "text": "當然在這個時候呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 703,
      "start": 1338.966,
      "end": 1341.133,
      "text": "就拿錢給大家來分配",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 704,
      "start": 1341.133,
      "end": 1343.1,
      "text": "讓一般的大眾",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 705,
      "start": 1343.3,
      "end": 1345.4,
      "text": "也能夠稍微有點助益",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 706,
      "start": 1345.4,
      "end": 1346.933,
      "text": "也是一件好事情了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 707,
      "start": 1346.933,
      "end": 1349.333,
      "text": "就是平衡那個落差的心理",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 708,
      "start": 1349.333,
      "end": 1350.6,
      "text": "因為我們一直看到 哇",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 709,
      "start": 1350.6,
      "end": 1351.766,
      "text": "這個出口賺那麼多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 710,
      "start": 1351.766,
      "end": 1352.533,
      "text": "可我們好像沒有",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 711,
      "start": 1352.533,
      "end": 1354.0,
      "text": "拿到任何好處這樣",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 712,
      "start": 1354.166,
      "end": 1354.966,
      "text": "但是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 713,
      "start": 1355.2,
      "end": 1355.9,
      "text": "這個1萬塊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 714,
      "start": 1355.9,
      "end": 1358.033,
      "text": "大概也補償不了多少了 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 715,
      "start": 1358.033,
      "end": 1358.566,
      "text": "可是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 716,
      "start": 1358.566,
      "end": 1361.133,
      "text": "對可能低收入戶來講 對",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 717,
      "start": 1361.3,
      "end": 1362.366,
      "text": "他們會是一個很大的幫助",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 718,
      "start": 1362.366,
      "end": 1364.166,
      "text": "對 因為1萬塊就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 719,
      "start": 1364.166,
      "end": 1365.3,
      "text": "這個家庭裡面",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 720,
      "start": 1365.3,
      "end": 1367.866,
      "text": "有多少人就有多少萬",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 721,
      "start": 1368.366,
      "end": 1369.866,
      "text": "所以對於那些",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 722,
      "start": 1369.966,
      "end": 1371.6,
      "text": "這個家裡人口眾多",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 723,
      "start": 1371.6,
      "end": 1373.8,
      "text": "收入又很少的人來說的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 724,
      "start": 1373.8,
      "end": 1375.333,
      "text": "這是一個額外的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 725,
      "start": 1375.333,
      "end": 1377.866,
      "text": "一個天上掉下來的這個錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 726,
      "start": 1378.4,
      "end": 1379.733,
      "text": "所以我們要希望這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 727,
      "start": 1379.733,
      "end": 1381.5,
      "text": "AI出口始終這麼好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 728,
      "start": 1381.5,
      "end": 1383.733,
      "text": "或許之後可以再發多一點嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 729,
      "start": 1384.166,
      "end": 1385.966,
      "text": "對 當然",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 730,
      "start": 1386.166,
      "end": 1388.133,
      "text": "因為我們必須要希望它好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 731,
      "start": 1388.133,
      "end": 1390.133,
      "text": "因為台灣整個經濟",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 732,
      "start": 1390.133,
      "end": 1391.733,
      "text": "就靠它支撐",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 733,
      "start": 1392.066,
      "end": 1392.9,
      "text": "它要不好的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 734,
      "start": 1392.9,
      "end": 1395.0,
      "text": "就全台灣都垮下去了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 735,
      "start": 1395.233,
      "end": 1396.533,
      "text": "但是就是雙面刃",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 736,
      "start": 1396.533,
      "end": 1398.433,
      "text": "另外一方面我們就是太依靠它",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 737,
      "start": 1398.433,
      "end": 1399.833,
      "text": "可是以現階段來講",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 738,
      "start": 1399.833,
      "end": 1401.433,
      "text": "也是無法改變的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 739,
      "start": 1401.533,
      "end": 1403.933,
      "text": "現在已經變成一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 740,
      "start": 1404.2,
      "end": 1406.233,
      "text": "相當固定的結構了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 741,
      "start": 1406.566,
      "end": 1410.2,
      "text": "就是人才啦 資金啦 技術啦",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 742,
      "start": 1410.2,
      "end": 1412.733,
      "text": "都已經被它吸引到那邊去了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 743,
      "start": 1413.1,
      "end": 1414.6,
      "text": "其他的這個行業呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 744,
      "start": 1414.733,
      "end": 1416.066,
      "text": "也得不到資金",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 745,
      "start": 1416.066,
      "end": 1417.533,
      "text": "也得不到人才",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 746,
      "start": 1417.533,
      "end": 1419.0,
      "text": "也得不到銷路",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 747,
      "start": 1419.0,
      "end": 1420.966,
      "text": "所以其他部分呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 748,
      "start": 1420.966,
      "end": 1421.833,
      "text": "事實上呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 749,
      "start": 1421.833,
      "end": 1423.333,
      "text": "已經枯萎了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 750,
      "start": 1423.766,
      "end": 1425.466,
      "text": "如果要讓它改變的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 751,
      "start": 1425.6,
      "end": 1427.5,
      "text": "那絕對不是短時間的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 752,
      "start": 1427.766,
      "end": 1428.833,
      "text": "尤其現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 753,
      "start": 1428.833,
      "end": 1430.166,
      "text": "台灣傳統製造業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 754,
      "start": 1430.166,
      "end": 1431.9,
      "text": "又面對這麼多挑戰",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 755,
      "start": 1432.133,
      "end": 1434.0,
      "text": "中國大陸這個低價傾銷",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 756,
      "start": 1434.0,
      "end": 1435.966,
      "text": "會打擊到傳統製造業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 757,
      "start": 1436.2,
      "end": 1437.133,
      "text": "而台灣服務業呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 758,
      "start": 1437.133,
      "end": 1439.3,
      "text": "事實上台灣服務業呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 759,
      "start": 1439.3,
      "end": 1441.066,
      "text": "你可以看出一件事情來",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 760,
      "start": 1441.2,
      "end": 1444.266,
      "text": "就是沒有人要國內旅遊了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 761,
      "start": 1444.666,
      "end": 1447.033,
      "text": "大家都跑到國外去旅遊了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 762,
      "start": 1447.2,
      "end": 1448.866,
      "text": "大家都覺得台灣旅遊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 763,
      "start": 1449.066,
      "end": 1450.266,
      "text": "又不方便",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 764,
      "start": 1450.266,
      "end": 1452.7,
      "text": "又貴 又沒有什麼特色",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 765,
      "start": 1452.866,
      "end": 1455.433,
      "text": "所以乾脆把錢拿到外國去花",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 766,
      "start": 1455.6,
      "end": 1457.766,
      "text": "所以國內如果旅遊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 767,
      "start": 1457.933,
      "end": 1460.266,
      "text": "如果是這樣的衰退下去的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 768,
      "start": 1460.3,
      "end": 1461.866,
      "text": "服務業當然不會好了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 769,
      "start": 1462.133,
      "end": 1463.5,
      "text": "因為很多服務業",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 770,
      "start": 1463.5,
      "end": 1465.233,
      "text": "不是跟住宿有關",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 771,
      "start": 1465.4,
      "end": 1467.0,
      "text": "就是跟餐飲有關",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 772,
      "start": 1467.2,
      "end": 1470.033,
      "text": "如果你的這個遊客都不見了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 773,
      "start": 1470.166,
      "end": 1471.633,
      "text": "沒有人要住宿了",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 774,
      "start": 1471.633,
      "end": 1472.633,
      "text": "那附近也不會",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 775,
      "start": 1472.633,
      "end": 1474.2,
      "text": "有什麼餐飲的收入",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 776,
      "start": 1474.4,
      "end": 1477.2,
      "text": "所以台灣就在這個情況之下呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 777,
      "start": 1477.2,
      "end": 1478.9,
      "text": "就會使得這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 778,
      "start": 1478.9,
      "end": 1480.566,
      "text": "整體的這個經濟呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 779,
      "start": 1480.566,
      "end": 1482.033,
      "text": "一直在往下走",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 780,
      "start": 1482.033,
      "end": 1485.2,
      "text": "只有一個科技業一枝獨秀",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 781,
      "start": 1485.233,
      "end": 1485.8,
      "text": "所以老師",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 782,
      "start": 1485.8,
      "end": 1487.1,
      "text": "那以這樣情況之下",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 783,
      "start": 1487.1,
      "end": 1488.033,
      "text": "會認為說這個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 784,
      "start": 1488.033,
      "end": 1490.5,
      "text": "我們全年11.05%",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 785,
      "start": 1490.5,
      "end": 1491.3,
      "text": "這樣子的成長率",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 786,
      "start": 1491.3,
      "end": 1492.933,
      "text": "可以維持多久嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 787,
      "start": 1492.933,
      "end": 1494.466,
      "text": "還是說其實我們",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 788,
      "start": 1494.466,
      "end": 1496.7,
      "text": "如果以目前的發展來講",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 789,
      "start": 1496.7,
      "end": 1497.533,
      "text": "始終都可以",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 790,
      "start": 1497.533,
      "end": 1498.966,
      "text": "會這麼的好嗎",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 791,
      "start": 1499.166,
      "end": 1500.733,
      "text": "這裡面有幾個前提",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 792,
      "start": 1500.733,
      "end": 1501.866,
      "text": "第一個前提呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 793,
      "start": 1501.866,
      "end": 1505.9,
      "text": "就是AI半導體這個行業呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 794,
      "start": 1506.1,
      "end": 1507.7,
      "text": "始終這麼強勁",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 795,
      "start": 1508.0,
      "end": 1509.033,
      "text": "因為我們這個(第2季)",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 796,
      "start": 1509.033,
      "end": 1512.433,
      "text": "12.93%的這個成長率呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 797,
      "start": 1512.8,
      "end": 1515.8,
      "text": "幾乎全部都來自這個部分",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 798,
      "start": 1516.233,
      "end": 1517.466,
      "text": "現在看起來呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 799,
      "start": 1517.633,
      "end": 1519.7,
      "text": "AI的情況還好",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 800,
      "start": 1519.933,
      "end": 1521.7,
      "text": "不過有很多隱憂",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 801,
      "start": 1522.133,
      "end": 1526.166,
      "text": "因為最近公布出來一個數字",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 802,
      "start": 1526.333,
      "end": 1528.3,
      "text": "就是這些AI巨頭呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 803,
      "start": 1528.633,
      "end": 1530.733,
      "text": "它們的隱形的負債呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 804,
      "start": 1530.866,
      "end": 1532.766,
      "text": "已經達到3兆美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 805,
      "start": 1533.2,
      "end": 1535.0,
      "text": "隱形負債在哪些方面呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 806,
      "start": 1535.0,
      "end": 1536.133,
      "text": "一個就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 807,
      "start": 1536.3,
      "end": 1537.933,
      "text": "它的很多資料中心呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 808,
      "start": 1538.266,
      "end": 1539.566,
      "text": "它要租",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 809,
      "start": 1539.766,
      "end": 1542.1,
      "text": "但是還沒有付出租金",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 810,
      "start": 1542.4,
      "end": 1544.633,
      "text": "就會使得它在這一方面呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 811,
      "start": 1544.633,
      "end": 1547.333,
      "text": "它有大概1兆多美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 812,
      "start": 1547.466,
      "end": 1549.033,
      "text": "被拖在這個地方",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 813,
      "start": 1549.1,
      "end": 1551.066,
      "text": "還有一些其他部分的支出",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 814,
      "start": 1551.066,
      "end": 1552.8,
      "text": "合在一起就是3兆美元",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 815,
      "start": 1552.833,
      "end": 1553.866,
      "text": "就表示呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 816,
      "start": 1554.033,
      "end": 1555.433,
      "text": "這AI巨頭呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 817,
      "start": 1555.433,
      "end": 1557.266,
      "text": "它也不過就幾家而已",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 818,
      "start": 1557.5,
      "end": 1558.966,
      "text": "它們如果共同承擔",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 819,
      "start": 1558.966,
      "end": 1562.0,
      "text": "這3兆美元的隱形負債的話",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 820,
      "start": 1562.2,
      "end": 1563.866,
      "text": "每一家負債有多少",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 821,
      "start": 1564.033,
      "end": 1565.1,
      "text": "這些負債呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 822,
      "start": 1565.1,
      "end": 1567.533,
      "text": "可能就會把它們拖垮",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 823,
      "start": 1567.666,
      "end": 1569.2,
      "text": "因為現在大家都在看的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 824,
      "start": 1569.2,
      "end": 1570.266,
      "text": "一件事情是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 825,
      "start": 1570.466,
      "end": 1572.9,
      "text": "它現在投資這麼多在資料中心",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 826,
      "start": 1572.9,
      "end": 1574.4,
      "text": "在算力方面",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 827,
      "start": 1574.7,
      "end": 1578.366,
      "text": "到底它真正可以落地 賺錢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 828,
      "start": 1578.466,
      "end": 1579.9,
      "text": "是在什麼時候",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 829,
      "start": 1580.466,
      "end": 1581.666,
      "text": "會有多少",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 830,
      "start": 1581.9,
      "end": 1583.8,
      "text": "而美國AI巨頭呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 831,
      "start": 1583.8,
      "end": 1585.866,
      "text": "目前其實有很多的隱憂",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 832,
      "start": 1586.3,
      "end": 1588.1,
      "text": "其中一個呢 就是",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 833,
      "start": 1588.3,
      "end": 1590.733,
      "text": "它們的這些高價的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 834,
      "start": 1591.033,
      "end": 1593.566,
      "text": "閉源的這些模型",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 835,
      "start": 1593.833,
      "end": 1595.5,
      "text": "受到了中國大陸",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 836,
      "start": 1595.733,
      "end": 1597.0,
      "text": "很低價的",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 837,
      "start": 1597.233,
      "end": 1600.333,
      "text": "開源的這個模型的打擊",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 838,
      "start": 1600.566,
      "end": 1601.333,
      "text": "現在呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 839,
      "start": 1601.333,
      "end": 1603.0,
      "text": "中國大陸開源模型呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 840,
      "start": 1603.0,
      "end": 1604.666,
      "text": "它的市占率已經",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 841,
      "start": 1604.666,
      "end": 1607.733,
      "text": "遙遙領先於美國這些科技巨頭",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 842,
      "start": 1608.266,
      "end": 1611.4,
      "text": "而這些中國大陸的開源模型呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 843,
      "start": 1611.4,
      "end": 1614.4,
      "text": "用1/3、1/5",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 844,
      "start": 1614.4,
      "end": 1616.6,
      "text": "甚至1/10的這個價格呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 845,
      "start": 1616.6,
      "end": 1618.866,
      "text": "在出售它的算力",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 846,
      "start": 1619.633,
      "end": 1620.466,
      "text": "這樣的一種",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 847,
      "start": 1620.7,
      "end": 1622.966,
      "text": "既是低廉的價格",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 848,
      "start": 1622.966,
      "end": 1624.1,
      "text": "又是開源的模型",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 849,
      "start": 1624.1,
      "end": 1625.266,
      "text": "因為開源模型呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 850,
      "start": 1625.266,
      "end": 1626.866,
      "text": "跟閉源模型比起來呢",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 851,
      "start": 1626.866,
      "end": 1627.466,
      "text": "開源模型",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 852,
      "start": 1627.466,
      "end": 1629.333,
      "text": "它的使用的範圍更廣",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 853,
      "start": 1629.333,
      "end": 1630.666,
      "text": "它可以自己去",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 854,
      "start": 1630.666,
      "end": 1632.466,
      "text": "做各種這個變化",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 855,
      "start": 1632.7,
      "end": 1635.133,
      "text": "所以如果中國大陸",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 856,
      "start": 1635.133,
      "end": 1635.9,
      "text": "它的開源模型",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 857,
      "start": 1635.9,
      "end": 1637.6,
      "text": "它開源模型不止一個",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 858,
      "start": 1637.766,
      "end": 1639.566,
      "text": "它除了這個阿裡巴巴之外",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle"
    },
    {
      "id": 859,
      "start": 1639.566,
      "end": 1641.2,
      "text": "還有DeepSeek等等",
      "source": "video_source_subtitle",
      "authority": "video_source_subtitle",
      "text_original": "還有Deepseek等等",
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      "start": 1664.433,
      "end": 1666.166,
      "text": "要能夠回收利潤",
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      "text": "老師會不會也有另外一個",
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      "id": 913,
      "start": 1746.366,
      "end": 1747.666,
      "text": "是不是真的能夠落地",
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      "text": "到底會高到什麼程度",
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