{
  "schema": "videonote.subtitle_normalize.v1",
  "input_cue_count": 1018,
  "kept_cue_count": 1016,
  "dropped_cue_count": 0,
  "duplicate_merged_count": 2,
  "overlap_repaired_count": 0,
  "rolling_prefix_removed_count": 0,
  "timing_uncertain_count": 0,
  "coverage_ratio": 0.971636,
  "gaps": [
    {
      "start": 60.506,
      "end": 60.566,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 120.666,
      "end": 120.726,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 181.06,
      "end": 181.12,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 241.386,
      "end": 241.446,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 301.08,
      "end": 301.14,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 362.04,
      "end": 362.1,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 421.533,
      "end": 421.593,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 482.026,
      "end": 482.086,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 540.886,
      "end": 540.946,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 601.246,
      "end": 601.306,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 661.64,
      "end": 661.7,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 721.1,
      "end": 721.16,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 781.76,
      "end": 781.82,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 841.653,
      "end": 841.713,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 901.546,
      "end": 901.606,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 962.84,
      "end": 962.9,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1021.9,
      "end": 1021.96,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1082.393,
      "end": 1082.453,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1121.22,
      "end": 1121.386,
      "seconds": 0.166
    },
    {
      "start": 1181.886,
      "end": 1181.946,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1241.813,
      "end": 1241.873,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1302.34,
      "end": 1302.4,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1361.966,
      "end": 1362.026,
      "seconds": 0.06
    },
    {
      "start": 1423.393,
      "end": 1423.453,
      "seconds": 0.06
    }
  ],
  "issues": [],
  "cues": [
    {
      "id": 0,
      "start": 0.406,
      "end": 1.54,
      "text": "歡迎收看台灣大時代",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1,
      "start": 1.54,
      "end": 2.74,
      "text": "大家好 我是張振驊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "start": 2.74,
      "end": 3.306,
      "text": "我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "start": 3.306,
      "end": 6.173,
      "text": "美債已經超過40兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "start": 6.173,
      "end": 7.64,
      "text": "每一年的美國政府利息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 5,
      "start": 7.64,
      "end": 9.273,
      "text": "就要突破1兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 6,
      "start": 9.273,
      "end": 11.506,
      "text": "而且赤字還在不斷增加當中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 7,
      "start": 11.506,
      "end": 13.94,
      "text": "美國財政部極力的在想辦法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 8,
      "start": 13.94,
      "end": 14.673,
      "text": "希望透過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 9,
      "start": 14.673,
      "end": 17.106,
      "text": "財政部版的扭轉操作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 10,
      "start": 17.106,
      "end": 19.173,
      "text": "有人說這是變相QE",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 11,
      "start": 19.173,
      "end": 20.34,
      "text": "但同一時間我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 12,
      "start": 20.34,
      "end": 22.206,
      "text": "美國的AI公司也在籌資",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 13,
      "start": 22.206,
      "end": 23.873,
      "text": "甚至AI也變成融資了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 14,
      "start": 23.873,
      "end": 25.14,
      "text": "它也在跟美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 15,
      "start": 25.14,
      "end": 27.006,
      "text": "跟美國政府在搶錢當中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 16,
      "start": 27.006,
      "end": 28.006,
      "text": "這一場美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 17,
      "start": 28.006,
      "end": 30.74,
      "text": "跟AI融資會如何來演變",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 18,
      "start": 30.74,
      "end": 32.14,
      "text": "今天我們非常榮幸邀請到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 19,
      "start": 32.14,
      "end": 33.606,
      "text": "台經院景氣預測中心主任",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 20,
      "start": 33.606,
      "end": 34.806,
      "text": "孫明德 孫主任",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 21,
      "start": 34.806,
      "end": 35.873,
      "text": "來為我們詳盡解析",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 22,
      "start": 35.873,
      "end": 36.573,
      "text": "主任您好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 23,
      "start": 36.573,
      "end": 38.173,
      "text": "主持人好 大家好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 24,
      "start": 38.173,
      "end": 39.073,
      "text": "首先主任馬上請教一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 25,
      "start": 39.073,
      "end": 40.473,
      "text": "我們看到美國財長貝森特",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 26,
      "start": 40.473,
      "end": 41.873,
      "text": "已經非常努力的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 27,
      "start": 41.873,
      "end": 43.14,
      "text": "希望能夠拯救美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 28,
      "start": 43.14,
      "end": 45.606,
      "text": "用買長債賣短債的方式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 29,
      "start": 45.606,
      "end": 46.673,
      "text": "但是市場第一時間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 30,
      "start": 46.673,
      "end": 47.74,
      "text": "就有點不太信",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 31,
      "start": 47.74,
      "end": 48.473,
      "text": "第一個你額度不夠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 32,
      "start": 48.473,
      "end": 49.706,
      "text": "沒有辦法長久持續",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 33,
      "start": 49.706,
      "end": 51.373,
      "text": "所以市場反而第一時間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 34,
      "start": 51.373,
      "end": 53.04,
      "text": "美債殖利率還是繼續飆升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 35,
      "start": 53.04,
      "end": 55.44,
      "text": "如果沒用的話 怎麼辦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 36,
      "start": 55.44,
      "end": 56.006,
      "text": "這一次為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 37,
      "start": 56.006,
      "end": 57.173,
      "text": "美國公債會暴跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 38,
      "start": 57.173,
      "end": 58.573,
      "text": "其實最近這半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 39,
      "start": 58.573,
      "end": 60.506,
      "text": "美國債 日本債 英國債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 40,
      "start": 60.566,
      "end": 61.866,
      "text": "這三個是連環爆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 41,
      "start": 61.866,
      "end": 63.333,
      "text": "這三個都有共同的原因",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 42,
      "start": 63.333,
      "end": 64.5,
      "text": "第一個就是亂花錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 43,
      "start": 64.5,
      "end": 65.632,
      "text": "第二個又減稅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 44,
      "start": 65.632,
      "end": 67.6,
      "text": "美國去年就大而美減稅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 45,
      "start": 67.6,
      "end": 69.633,
      "text": "今年又打了中東戰爭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 46,
      "start": 69.633,
      "end": 71.133,
      "text": "你也知道 就是錢坑",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 47,
      "start": 71.133,
      "end": 71.966,
      "text": "日本也是一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 48,
      "start": 71.966,
      "end": 73.966,
      "text": "日本最近要通過消費稅減免",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 49,
      "start": 73.966,
      "end": 75.7,
      "text": "本來8％ 現在變1％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 50,
      "start": 75.7,
      "end": 78.133,
      "text": "另外是日本今年提出一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 51,
      "start": 78.133,
      "end": 79.2,
      "text": "新的公共預算",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 52,
      "start": 79.2,
      "end": 80.6,
      "text": "大概是0.9兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 53,
      "start": 80.6,
      "end": 82.133,
      "text": "日本GDP大概4兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 54,
      "start": 82.133,
      "end": 85.266,
      "text": "它光是支出就0.9兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 55,
      "start": 85.266,
      "end": 87.166,
      "text": "所以這兩個都是一直在花錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 56,
      "start": 87.166,
      "end": 88.366,
      "text": "但是一直在減稅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 57,
      "start": 88.366,
      "end": 89.433,
      "text": "然後大家對你的財政",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 58,
      "start": 89.433,
      "end": 90.166,
      "text": "就不相信了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 59,
      "start": 90.166,
      "end": 91.566,
      "text": "這個時候你的公債當然暴跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 60,
      "start": 91.566,
      "end": 93.133,
      "text": "而且它們中間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 61,
      "start": 93.133,
      "end": 94.2,
      "text": "都有資金的關係",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 62,
      "start": 94.2,
      "end": 94.866,
      "text": "比如說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 63,
      "start": 94.866,
      "end": 96.133,
      "text": "因為日本的利率只有1％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 64,
      "start": 96.133,
      "end": 97.266,
      "text": "美國有3.5％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 65,
      "start": 97.266,
      "end": 98.266,
      "text": "所以很多投資人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 66,
      "start": 98.266,
      "end": 99.666,
      "text": "就從日本借錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 67,
      "start": 99.666,
      "end": 100.899,
      "text": "把錢搬到美國去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 68,
      "start": 100.899,
      "end": 102.033,
      "text": "投資公債都好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 69,
      "start": 102.033,
      "end": 103.6,
      "text": "但現在發生情況改變",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 70,
      "start": 103.6,
      "end": 104.233,
      "text": "第一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 71,
      "start": 104.233,
      "end": 106.933,
      "text": "今年中東戰爭讓油價",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 72,
      "start": 106.933,
      "end": 108.399,
      "text": "持續居高不下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 73,
      "start": 108.399,
      "end": 110.0,
      "text": "油價高 物價就高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 74,
      "start": 110.0,
      "end": 112.399,
      "text": "聯準會就時時有可能要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 75,
      "start": 112.399,
      "end": 114.399,
      "text": "你一升息 對公債當然不利",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 76,
      "start": 114.399,
      "end": 115.166,
      "text": "第二個是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 77,
      "start": 115.166,
      "end": 116.733,
      "text": "我們看到最近的公債市場",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 78,
      "start": 116.733,
      "end": 117.6,
      "text": "這幾年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 79,
      "start": 117.6,
      "end": 118.899,
      "text": "大家已經不太喜歡美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 80,
      "start": 118.899,
      "end": 120.666,
      "text": "你看到中國 委內瑞拉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 81,
      "start": 120.726,
      "end": 122.26,
      "text": "或者是像伊朗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 82,
      "start": 122.26,
      "end": 123.26,
      "text": "俄羅斯這些國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 83,
      "start": 123.26,
      "end": 124.626,
      "text": "它們以前賣油賣什麼的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 84,
      "start": 124.626,
      "end": 126.993,
      "text": "它們都去買美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 85,
      "start": 126.993,
      "end": 128.126,
      "text": "現在你會發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 86,
      "start": 128.126,
      "end": 129.291,
      "text": "大家都去買黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 87,
      "start": 129.291,
      "end": 130.892,
      "text": "所以黃金價格在今年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 88,
      "start": 130.892,
      "end": 132.926,
      "text": "甚至一路高到5000塊美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 89,
      "start": 132.926,
      "end": 134.493,
      "text": "美債的重要性降低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 90,
      "start": 134.493,
      "end": 136.026,
      "text": "我這邊看到一份資料是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 91,
      "start": 136.026,
      "end": 137.36,
      "text": "現在各國持有的美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 92,
      "start": 137.36,
      "end": 138.393,
      "text": "在十年前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 93,
      "start": 138.393,
      "end": 140.026,
      "text": "大概在2010年左右",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 94,
      "start": 140.026,
      "end": 141.96,
      "text": "當時外國人持有的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 95,
      "start": 141.96,
      "end": 143.56,
      "text": "占美國公債是一半",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 96,
      "start": 143.56,
      "end": 145.326,
      "text": "現在外國人持有的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 97,
      "start": 145.326,
      "end": 146.626,
      "text": "大概是3成左右",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 98,
      "start": 146.626,
      "end": 148.093,
      "text": "已經從5成降到3成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 99,
      "start": 148.093,
      "end": 149.393,
      "text": "另外一個數據告訴你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 100,
      "start": 149.393,
      "end": 151.126,
      "text": "央行手上的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 101,
      "start": 151.126,
      "end": 152.626,
      "text": "現在還不如民間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 102,
      "start": 152.626,
      "end": 154.126,
      "text": "各國央行手上持有的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 103,
      "start": 154.126,
      "end": 154.96,
      "text": "美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 104,
      "start": 154.96,
      "end": 156.993,
      "text": "大概是占到2成多出頭一點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 105,
      "start": 156.993,
      "end": 159.626,
      "text": "為什麼剛剛還有個總額",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 106,
      "start": 159.626,
      "end": 160.693,
      "text": "會到3成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 107,
      "start": 160.693,
      "end": 161.926,
      "text": "但央行只有2成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 108,
      "start": 161.926,
      "end": 163.293,
      "text": "因為民間的保險公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 109,
      "start": 163.293,
      "end": 164.426,
      "text": "買了很多美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 110,
      "start": 164.426,
      "end": 166.326,
      "text": "我相信電視機前面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 111,
      "start": 166.326,
      "end": 168.96,
      "text": "有很多保險公司高層也在看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 112,
      "start": 168.96,
      "end": 170.693,
      "text": "保險公司未來也要注意一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 113,
      "start": 170.693,
      "end": 171.76,
      "text": "資產的多元化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 114,
      "start": 171.76,
      "end": 173.526,
      "text": "因為美債的重要性降低了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 115,
      "start": 173.526,
      "end": 174.326,
      "text": "所以我們剛剛提到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 116,
      "start": 174.326,
      "end": 175.726,
      "text": "貝森特要救美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "start": 175.726,
      "end": 177.893,
      "text": "因為美國公債最近一直在跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "start": 177.893,
      "end": 179.226,
      "text": "其實不是美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "start": 179.226,
      "end": 181.06,
      "text": "日債 英國債都一直在跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "start": 181.12,
      "end": 183.62,
      "text": "原因之一就是因為它不開源",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "start": 183.62,
      "end": 184.786,
      "text": "沒有增稅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 122,
      "start": 184.786,
      "end": 185.786,
      "text": "又不節流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 123,
      "start": 185.786,
      "end": 187.086,
      "text": "中東又花了很多錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 124,
      "start": 187.086,
      "end": 188.086,
      "text": "另外就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 125,
      "start": 188.086,
      "end": 188.986,
      "text": "今年中東戰爭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 126,
      "start": 188.986,
      "end": 191.42,
      "text": "讓中東國家在第一季賣債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 127,
      "start": 191.42,
      "end": 192.853,
      "text": "你知道中東國家也缺錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 128,
      "start": 192.853,
      "end": 193.753,
      "text": "第二季",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 129,
      "start": 193.753,
      "end": 195.086,
      "text": "日本一直在護盤",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 130,
      "start": 195.086,
      "end": 196.719,
      "text": "日本也在賣美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 131,
      "start": 196.719,
      "end": 198.886,
      "text": "外面人家一直在賣你的公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 132,
      "start": 198.886,
      "end": 200.92,
      "text": "現在聯準會又可能要縮表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 133,
      "start": 200.92,
      "end": 201.953,
      "text": "又不買美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 134,
      "start": 201.953,
      "end": 203.653,
      "text": "各種因素交雜之下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 135,
      "start": 203.653,
      "end": 205.02,
      "text": "就造成美債的大跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 136,
      "start": 205.02,
      "end": 206.153,
      "text": "所以它必須要救",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 137,
      "start": 206.153,
      "end": 207.786,
      "text": "但是美國財政部",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 138,
      "start": 207.786,
      "end": 209.219,
      "text": "它只縮了40億美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 139,
      "start": 209.219,
      "end": 211.486,
      "text": "但是美債是40兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 140,
      "start": 211.486,
      "end": 213.053,
      "text": "兆跟億差了很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 141,
      "start": 213.053,
      "end": 213.953,
      "text": "小學生都知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 142,
      "start": 213.953,
      "end": 215.453,
      "text": "有所謂的TGA帳戶",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "start": 215.453,
      "end": 216.219,
      "text": "財政部一般帳戶",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "start": 216.219,
      "end": 217.786,
      "text": "大概有頂多1兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "start": 217.786,
      "end": 219.12,
      "text": "但是也不能全部用盡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "start": 219.12,
      "end": 220.286,
      "text": "你如果真的要",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "start": 220.286,
      "end": 221.686,
      "text": "財政部跟聯準會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "start": 221.686,
      "end": 222.853,
      "text": "本來就會買債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 149,
      "start": 222.853,
      "end": 224.786,
      "text": "只是聯準會做的是寬鬆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 150,
      "start": 224.786,
      "end": 225.886,
      "text": "市場的調節",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 151,
      "start": 225.886,
      "end": 226.92,
      "text": "財政部不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 152,
      "start": 226.92,
      "end": 227.62,
      "text": "因為財政部本身",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 153,
      "start": 227.62,
      "end": 228.92,
      "text": "就是一個發債單位",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 154,
      "start": 228.92,
      "end": 230.453,
      "text": "它以前在做的事情就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 155,
      "start": 230.453,
      "end": 232.786,
      "text": "發新債 還舊債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 156,
      "start": 232.786,
      "end": 233.853,
      "text": "我們舊債要到期了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 157,
      "start": 233.853,
      "end": 234.686,
      "text": "我發一個新債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "start": 234.686,
      "end": 236.253,
      "text": "讓這個債持續下去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 159,
      "start": 236.253,
      "end": 237.42,
      "text": "所以美國財政部",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 160,
      "start": 237.42,
      "end": 238.353,
      "text": "本來就會買債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 161,
      "start": 238.353,
      "end": 240.086,
      "text": "只是它以前是做調節",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 162,
      "start": 240.086,
      "end": 241.386,
      "text": "它並不是要去寬鬆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 163,
      "start": 241.446,
      "end": 242.28,
      "text": "這一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 164,
      "start": 242.28,
      "end": 243.38,
      "text": "它一做這個40億美元的動作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 165,
      "start": 243.38,
      "end": 243.913,
      "text": "大家想說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 166,
      "start": 243.913,
      "end": 245.58,
      "text": "你是在搶聯準會的工作嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 167,
      "start": 245.58,
      "end": 246.98,
      "text": "聯準會在做什麼去了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 168,
      "start": 246.98,
      "end": 248.146,
      "text": "另外你這40億美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 169,
      "start": 248.146,
      "end": 249.78,
      "text": "根本就是拿一個OK蹦去貼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 170,
      "start": 249.78,
      "end": 250.846,
      "text": "我們家水管要是破了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 171,
      "start": 250.846,
      "end": 251.48,
      "text": "你有沒有聽過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 172,
      "start": 251.48,
      "end": 252.88,
      "text": "拿OK蹦去貼的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 173,
      "start": 252.88,
      "end": 254.18,
      "text": "你貼一個OK蹦沒有意義",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 174,
      "start": 254.18,
      "end": 255.213,
      "text": "只是讓大家知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 175,
      "start": 255.213,
      "end": 256.913,
      "text": "你完全沒有招式可以用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 176,
      "start": 256.913,
      "end": 258.046,
      "text": "所以最近的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 177,
      "start": 258.046,
      "end": 259.38,
      "text": "波動得非常大",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 178,
      "start": 259.38,
      "end": 261.512,
      "text": "甚至牽動日債 日圓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 179,
      "start": 261.512,
      "end": 264.08,
      "text": "各種的貨幣都在最近連環爆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 180,
      "start": 264.08,
      "end": 265.246,
      "text": "我們再舉一個例子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 181,
      "start": 265.246,
      "end": 266.28,
      "text": "加進來你就會發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 182,
      "start": 266.28,
      "end": 267.746,
      "text": "對照組 叫歐洲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 183,
      "start": 267.746,
      "end": 268.98,
      "text": "特別是德國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 184,
      "start": 268.98,
      "end": 271.48,
      "text": "德國的債務占它GDP的比重",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 185,
      "start": 271.48,
      "end": 272.413,
      "text": "就國民所得的比重",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 186,
      "start": 272.413,
      "end": 273.446,
      "text": "是50％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 187,
      "start": 273.446,
      "end": 274.48,
      "text": "日本是220％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 188,
      "start": 274.48,
      "end": 276.113,
      "text": "美國是130％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 189,
      "start": 276.113,
      "end": 277.08,
      "text": "這三個數字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 190,
      "start": 277.08,
      "end": 278.38,
      "text": "50％ 100％ 200％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 191,
      "start": 278.38,
      "end": 279.313,
      "text": "是什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 192,
      "start": 279.313,
      "end": 280.98,
      "text": "假如我們今天跟振驊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 193,
      "start": 280.98,
      "end": 282.28,
      "text": "我們兩個收入都一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 194,
      "start": 282.28,
      "end": 283.646,
      "text": "你跟銀行借1000萬元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 195,
      "start": 283.646,
      "end": 284.946,
      "text": "我跟銀行借1億元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 196,
      "start": 284.946,
      "end": 286.246,
      "text": "我們兩個其它都一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 197,
      "start": 286.246,
      "end": 288.413,
      "text": "今天要是銀行升息升個1％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 198,
      "start": 288.413,
      "end": 289.58,
      "text": "是你痛苦還是我痛苦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 199,
      "start": 289.58,
      "end": 290.313,
      "text": "一定是我痛苦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 200,
      "start": 290.313,
      "end": 291.646,
      "text": "因為我借的錢比較多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 201,
      "start": 291.646,
      "end": 292.88,
      "text": "所以剛剛大家想到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 202,
      "start": 292.88,
      "end": 293.446,
      "text": "日本為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 203,
      "start": 293.446,
      "end": 295.212,
      "text": "利率現在升到1％動不了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 204,
      "start": 295.212,
      "end": 296.78,
      "text": "因為日本再升下去的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 205,
      "start": 296.78,
      "end": 298.246,
      "text": "這一次我看到它的公共支出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 206,
      "start": 298.246,
      "end": 299.146,
      "text": "我剛剛不是說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 207,
      "start": 299.146,
      "end": 301.08,
      "text": "他們明年的預算是0.9兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 208,
      "start": 301.14,
      "end": 302.34,
      "text": "9000億美金嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 209,
      "start": 302.34,
      "end": 304.773,
      "text": "其中四分之一都是利息錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 210,
      "start": 304.773,
      "end": 305.406,
      "text": "你知道美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 211,
      "start": 305.406,
      "end": 307.006,
      "text": "一年的支出6兆美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 212,
      "start": 307.006,
      "end": 308.273,
      "text": "1兆美金利息錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 213,
      "start": 308.273,
      "end": 310.14,
      "text": "所以它們這兩個要是再升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 214,
      "start": 310.14,
      "end": 311.506,
      "text": "你的利息錢就更多了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 215,
      "start": 311.506,
      "end": 312.173,
      "text": "你想想看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 216,
      "start": 312.173,
      "end": 314.04,
      "text": "同樣的事情如果在德國身上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 217,
      "start": 314.04,
      "end": 315.206,
      "text": "它就沒借那麼多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 218,
      "start": 315.206,
      "end": 316.972,
      "text": "就算它升息 它也不太擔心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 219,
      "start": 316.972,
      "end": 317.772,
      "text": "因為你看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 220,
      "start": 317.772,
      "end": 319.44,
      "text": "歐洲升息 歐洲央行升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 221,
      "start": 319.44,
      "end": 320.54,
      "text": "好像歐洲還好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 222,
      "start": 320.54,
      "end": 322.006,
      "text": "因為這幾年除了德國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 223,
      "start": 322.006,
      "end": 323.94,
      "text": "其它歐豬幾國也慢慢的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 224,
      "start": 323.94,
      "end": 325.472,
      "text": "財政有點改善",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 225,
      "start": 325.472,
      "end": 326.906,
      "text": "但是美國跟日本不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 226,
      "start": 326.906,
      "end": 327.873,
      "text": "它們債多不愁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 227,
      "start": 327.873,
      "end": 329.506,
      "text": "是它不愁 我很愁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 228,
      "start": 329.506,
      "end": 331.506,
      "text": "你債愈多 你的聯準會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 229,
      "start": 331.506,
      "end": 332.406,
      "text": "或者你的日本央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 230,
      "start": 332.406,
      "end": 333.64,
      "text": "你就更不能升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 231,
      "start": 333.64,
      "end": 334.706,
      "text": "投鼠忌器",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 232,
      "start": 334.706,
      "end": 335.606,
      "text": "所以大家才會發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 233,
      "start": 335.606,
      "end": 337.906,
      "text": "原來這些因素是息息相關",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 234,
      "start": 337.906,
      "end": 339.373,
      "text": "比如說你看到這兩天的日圓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 235,
      "start": 339.373,
      "end": 340.006,
      "text": "為什麼暴衝",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 236,
      "start": 340.006,
      "end": 341.706,
      "text": "因為美國不希望",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 237,
      "start": 341.706,
      "end": 343.506,
      "text": "日本賣美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 238,
      "start": 343.506,
      "end": 345.406,
      "text": "我們現在美國公債已經很慘",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 239,
      "start": 345.406,
      "end": 346.472,
      "text": "你再賣美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 240,
      "start": 346.472,
      "end": 347.14,
      "text": "我會更辛苦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 241,
      "start": 347.14,
      "end": 347.873,
      "text": "不准賣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 242,
      "start": 347.873,
      "end": 348.506,
      "text": "那怎麼辦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 243,
      "start": 348.506,
      "end": 350.006,
      "text": "你不讓我護盤",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 244,
      "start": 350.006,
      "end": 351.073,
      "text": "我教你一招",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 245,
      "start": 351.073,
      "end": 352.04,
      "text": "你升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 246,
      "start": 352.04,
      "end": 353.34,
      "text": "所以在G20",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 247,
      "start": 353.34,
      "end": 354.806,
      "text": "或者是那些央行的會議上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 248,
      "start": 354.806,
      "end": 356.106,
      "text": "它們就要求日本升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 249,
      "start": 356.106,
      "end": 357.606,
      "text": "好像日本央行已經答應了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 250,
      "start": 357.606,
      "end": 358.373,
      "text": "所以這兩天的日圓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 251,
      "start": 358.373,
      "end": 359.406,
      "text": "才會有暴衝",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 252,
      "start": 359.406,
      "end": 360.506,
      "text": "但日圓的暴衝是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 253,
      "start": 360.506,
      "end": 362.04,
      "text": "日本又要承擔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 254,
      "start": 362.1,
      "end": 363.466,
      "text": "很大的利息支出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 255,
      "start": 363.466,
      "end": 364.933,
      "text": "唯一的代價就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 256,
      "start": 364.933,
      "end": 366.0,
      "text": "它不要賣美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 257,
      "start": 366.0,
      "end": 367.033,
      "text": "我救美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 258,
      "start": 367.033,
      "end": 369.4,
      "text": "你日本先頂著先",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 259,
      "start": 369.4,
      "end": 370.266,
      "text": "所以我們看到說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 260,
      "start": 370.266,
      "end": 371.633,
      "text": "如果日圓升息的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 261,
      "start": 371.633,
      "end": 373.966,
      "text": "當然剛剛主任也提到說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 262,
      "start": 373.966,
      "end": 376.266,
      "text": "很多從日圓借走的借款金額",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 263,
      "start": 376.266,
      "end": 377.233,
      "text": "到美國去投資",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 264,
      "start": 377.233,
      "end": 378.966,
      "text": "然後套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 265,
      "start": 378.966,
      "end": 380.366,
      "text": "如果日圓升息的話就變成說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 266,
      "start": 380.366,
      "end": 381.766,
      "text": "這套利交易有部分必須平倉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 267,
      "start": 381.766,
      "end": 382.832,
      "text": "又回到日本去了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 268,
      "start": 382.832,
      "end": 386.0,
      "text": "對於這些持有美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 269,
      "start": 386.0,
      "end": 387.233,
      "text": "投資者的部位來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 270,
      "start": 387.233,
      "end": 388.9,
      "text": "他有可能會風險資產下跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 271,
      "start": 388.9,
      "end": 389.666,
      "text": "或者是說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 272,
      "start": 389.666,
      "end": 391.233,
      "text": "對美債也是一個負面影響",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 273,
      "start": 391.233,
      "end": 392.2,
      "text": "所以它變成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 274,
      "start": 392.2,
      "end": 395.166,
      "text": "美國要求日本你要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 275,
      "start": 395.166,
      "end": 396.733,
      "text": "但是對美債自己本身的傷害",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 276,
      "start": 396.733,
      "end": 397.633,
      "text": "或對美股",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 277,
      "start": 397.633,
      "end": 398.433,
      "text": "或對美元計價的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 278,
      "start": 398.433,
      "end": 399.299,
      "text": "風險資產傷害",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 279,
      "start": 399.299,
      "end": 400.799,
      "text": "也是存在的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 280,
      "start": 400.799,
      "end": 402.2,
      "text": "因為如果我現在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 281,
      "start": 402.2,
      "end": 403.666,
      "text": "你看到日本這兩天",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 282,
      "start": 403.666,
      "end": 405.2,
      "text": "公債殖利率也是暴衝",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 283,
      "start": 405.2,
      "end": 406.4,
      "text": "不是美債暴衝",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 284,
      "start": 406.4,
      "end": 407.666,
      "text": "日債也暴衝",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 285,
      "start": 407.666,
      "end": 408.233,
      "text": "如果它們兩個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 286,
      "start": 408.233,
      "end": 410.033,
      "text": "不維持一個平穩的差距",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 287,
      "start": 410.033,
      "end": 410.866,
      "text": "只要日本公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 288,
      "start": 410.866,
      "end": 411.832,
      "text": "漲得稍微多一點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 289,
      "start": 411.832,
      "end": 412.9,
      "text": "我最近看到很多新聞就提到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 290,
      "start": 412.9,
      "end": 414.933,
      "text": "日本很多保險公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 291,
      "start": 414.933,
      "end": 416.233,
      "text": "國際的投資人注意到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 292,
      "start": 416.233,
      "end": 417.866,
      "text": "日本公債現在很可口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 293,
      "start": 417.866,
      "end": 419.1,
      "text": "報酬率很高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 294,
      "start": 419.1,
      "end": 420.5,
      "text": "我們來買日本公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 295,
      "start": 420.5,
      "end": 421.533,
      "text": "他們接下來就會把",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 296,
      "start": 421.593,
      "end": 423.226,
      "text": "他們的美元資產換到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 297,
      "start": 423.226,
      "end": 425.026,
      "text": "原來可能就從日本借出來的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 298,
      "start": 425.026,
      "end": 426.16,
      "text": "再把錢換回去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 299,
      "start": 426.16,
      "end": 427.926,
      "text": "這個時候對美債反而更不好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 300,
      "start": 427.926,
      "end": 429.26,
      "text": "所以你表面上是讓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 301,
      "start": 429.26,
      "end": 431.46,
      "text": "日本官方沒有賣美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 302,
      "start": 431.46,
      "end": 432.76,
      "text": "但是你的套利交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 303,
      "start": 432.76,
      "end": 433.56,
      "text": "你只要一回去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 304,
      "start": 433.56,
      "end": 435.66,
      "text": "你反而讓民間賣美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 305,
      "start": 435.66,
      "end": 437.326,
      "text": "所以對美國財政部來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 306,
      "start": 437.326,
      "end": 439.026,
      "text": "有時候是長痛短痛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 307,
      "start": 439.026,
      "end": 439.993,
      "text": "我現在先治短痛",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 308,
      "start": 439.993,
      "end": 441.026,
      "text": "你眼前先別賣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 309,
      "start": 441.026,
      "end": 442.26,
      "text": "政府官方別賣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 310,
      "start": 442.26,
      "end": 444.36,
      "text": "至於民間 我再慢慢想辦法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 311,
      "start": 444.36,
      "end": 445.46,
      "text": "所以你剛剛提到那一句",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 312,
      "start": 445.46,
      "end": 446.626,
      "text": "也是很重要的一點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 313,
      "start": 446.626,
      "end": 447.76,
      "text": "當日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 314,
      "start": 447.76,
      "end": 449.826,
      "text": "比如說剛剛提到日本升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 315,
      "start": 449.826,
      "end": 451.193,
      "text": "日本公債暴跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 316,
      "start": 451.193,
      "end": 452.326,
      "text": "殖利率上升的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 317,
      "start": 452.326,
      "end": 454.093,
      "text": "又會把美國的錢給吸回去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 318,
      "start": 454.093,
      "end": 455.793,
      "text": "這對美債還是不好的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 319,
      "start": 455.793,
      "end": 456.56,
      "text": "所以你會發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 320,
      "start": 456.56,
      "end": 457.392,
      "text": "對美債來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 321,
      "start": 457.392,
      "end": 458.493,
      "text": "沒有什麼萬靈丹",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 322,
      "start": 458.493,
      "end": 459.392,
      "text": "它目前全部都是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 323,
      "start": 459.392,
      "end": 460.793,
      "text": "頭痛醫頭 腳痛醫腳",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 324,
      "start": 460.793,
      "end": 462.526,
      "text": "甚至只是吃個止痛藥",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 325,
      "start": 462.526,
      "end": 464.026,
      "text": "兩小時有效而已",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 326,
      "start": 464.026,
      "end": 465.793,
      "text": "未來的問題還會更多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 327,
      "start": 465.793,
      "end": 467.026,
      "text": "兩顆都是毒藥",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 328,
      "start": 467.026,
      "end": 468.493,
      "text": "就是選擇比較不毒的那一顆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 329,
      "start": 468.493,
      "end": 469.593,
      "text": "必須吃下去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 330,
      "start": 469.593,
      "end": 470.626,
      "text": "我想",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 331,
      "start": 470.626,
      "end": 471.56,
      "text": "觀眾現在一定會問我說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 332,
      "start": 471.56,
      "end": 472.56,
      "text": "主任你講了半天",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 333,
      "start": 472.56,
      "end": 474.093,
      "text": "這也毒 那也毒",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 334,
      "start": 474.093,
      "end": 475.96,
      "text": "我們可不可以有什麼選擇",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 335,
      "start": 475.96,
      "end": 477.093,
      "text": "我這邊提供給大家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 336,
      "start": 477.093,
      "end": 478.892,
      "text": "我們最近觀察的一些重點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 337,
      "start": 478.892,
      "end": 480.493,
      "text": "你會發現各國的公債裡面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 338,
      "start": 480.493,
      "end": 482.026,
      "text": "就中國的公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 339,
      "start": 482.086,
      "end": 483.153,
      "text": "最近它的殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 340,
      "start": 483.153,
      "end": 484.553,
      "text": "反而是比較低的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 341,
      "start": 484.553,
      "end": 485.12,
      "text": "為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 342,
      "start": 485.12,
      "end": 486.986,
      "text": "因為別人升息 它降息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 343,
      "start": 486.986,
      "end": 488.72,
      "text": "別人通膨 它通縮",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 344,
      "start": 488.72,
      "end": 490.92,
      "text": "它的債務當然也很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 345,
      "start": 490.92,
      "end": 491.986,
      "text": "當然也有它的問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 346,
      "start": 491.986,
      "end": 493.986,
      "text": "但至少人家在升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 347,
      "start": 493.986,
      "end": 494.986,
      "text": "公債在暴跌的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 348,
      "start": 494.986,
      "end": 497.02,
      "text": "中國似乎還算穩定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 349,
      "start": 497.02,
      "end": 497.72,
      "text": "這是第一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 350,
      "start": 497.72,
      "end": 498.786,
      "text": "第二個是可轉債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 351,
      "start": 498.786,
      "end": 499.853,
      "text": "我這兩天看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 352,
      "start": 499.853,
      "end": 501.153,
      "text": "歐美有一篇報導特別提到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 353,
      "start": 501.153,
      "end": 502.253,
      "text": "什麼叫可轉債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 354,
      "start": 502.253,
      "end": 503.686,
      "text": "很多企業現在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 355,
      "start": 503.686,
      "end": 505.553,
      "text": "因為現在如果去發債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 356,
      "start": 505.553,
      "end": 506.82,
      "text": "它們的利息就會很高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 357,
      "start": 506.82,
      "end": 508.886,
      "text": "我發可轉債 利息是零",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 358,
      "start": 508.886,
      "end": 510.853,
      "text": "你想說我為何要買個零利率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 359,
      "start": 510.853,
      "end": 511.82,
      "text": "因為它可轉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 360,
      "start": 511.82,
      "end": 512.819,
      "text": "我們現在就在賭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 361,
      "start": 512.819,
      "end": 514.852,
      "text": "AI會不會有第三波第幾波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 362,
      "start": 514.852,
      "end": 515.986,
      "text": "說不定這間AI公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 363,
      "start": 515.986,
      "end": 517.12,
      "text": "以後股價會很高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 364,
      "start": 517.12,
      "end": 518.852,
      "text": "比如說我們現在看它是80塊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 365,
      "start": 518.852,
      "end": 520.186,
      "text": "也許以後可以到100塊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 366,
      "start": 520.186,
      "end": 521.253,
      "text": "120塊 150塊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 367,
      "start": 521.253,
      "end": 521.952,
      "text": "我們這個時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 368,
      "start": 521.952,
      "end": 523.253,
      "text": "先買它的可轉債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 369,
      "start": 523.253,
      "end": 524.12,
      "text": "進可攻",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 370,
      "start": 524.12,
      "end": 526.253,
      "text": "然後去換它的股票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 371,
      "start": 526.253,
      "end": 526.986,
      "text": "退可守",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 372,
      "start": 526.986,
      "end": 528.686,
      "text": "至少它是個債 比較穩定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 373,
      "start": 528.686,
      "end": 530.785,
      "text": "但是可轉債它有一個好處",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 374,
      "start": 530.785,
      "end": 532.586,
      "text": "就是這間公司也知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 375,
      "start": 532.586,
      "end": 533.72,
      "text": "你以後要來換我的股票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 376,
      "start": 533.72,
      "end": 534.853,
      "text": "會稀釋我的股權",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 377,
      "start": 534.853,
      "end": 537.886,
      "text": "它們可以用買權上限的方式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 378,
      "start": 537.886,
      "end": 540.02,
      "text": "我先去跟期貨公司或什麼的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 379,
      "start": 540.02,
      "end": 540.886,
      "text": "做一個合約",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 380,
      "start": 540.946,
      "end": 542.68,
      "text": "100塊到150塊之間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 381,
      "start": 542.68,
      "end": 544.546,
      "text": "我先把價錢給墊高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 382,
      "start": 544.546,
      "end": 545.68,
      "text": "我讓你看得到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 383,
      "start": 545.68,
      "end": 547.18,
      "text": "最後我就把價錢墊到150塊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 384,
      "start": 547.18,
      "end": 547.913,
      "text": "你可能想說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 385,
      "start": 547.913,
      "end": 548.713,
      "text": "現在才80塊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 386,
      "start": 548.713,
      "end": 549.78,
      "text": "你怎麼可能到150塊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 387,
      "start": 549.78,
      "end": 552.646,
      "text": "是因為我中間透過衍生商品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 388,
      "start": 552.646,
      "end": 554.146,
      "text": "把自己的價錢給墊高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 389,
      "start": 554.146,
      "end": 555.513,
      "text": "100塊到150塊之間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 390,
      "start": 555.513,
      "end": 556.846,
      "text": "由銀行幫我承擔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 391,
      "start": 556.846,
      "end": 557.58,
      "text": "這部分的風險",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 392,
      "start": 557.58,
      "end": 559.746,
      "text": "真的價格到150塊 再說了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 393,
      "start": 559.746,
      "end": 560.78,
      "text": "但至少150塊之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 394,
      "start": 560.78,
      "end": 561.613,
      "text": "我們是安全",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 395,
      "start": 561.613,
      "end": 562.613,
      "text": "所以最近你會發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 396,
      "start": 562.613,
      "end": 564.846,
      "text": "可轉債或者是中國的公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 397,
      "start": 564.846,
      "end": 565.58,
      "text": "可以是大家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 398,
      "start": 565.58,
      "end": 567.28,
      "text": "最近債市一團亂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 399,
      "start": 567.28,
      "end": 568.713,
      "text": "可以思考的兩個方向",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 400,
      "start": 568.713,
      "end": 569.913,
      "text": "如果回到一般",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 401,
      "start": 569.913,
      "end": 570.78,
      "text": "我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 402,
      "start": 570.78,
      "end": 572.346,
      "text": "黃金在去年的時候跟著漲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 403,
      "start": 572.346,
      "end": 573.746,
      "text": "現在美債有問題的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 404,
      "start": 573.746,
      "end": 574.813,
      "text": "黃金也漲了一波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 405,
      "start": 574.813,
      "end": 575.646,
      "text": "黃金 比特幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 406,
      "start": 575.646,
      "end": 577.38,
      "text": "或者是某些貨幣市場當中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 407,
      "start": 577.38,
      "end": 579.98,
      "text": "財政比較健全國家的貨幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 408,
      "start": 579.98,
      "end": 581.48,
      "text": "這個時候對個人投資者來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 409,
      "start": 581.48,
      "end": 582.48,
      "text": "是不是一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 410,
      "start": 582.48,
      "end": 583.845,
      "text": "這個時候能夠避險標的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 411,
      "start": 583.845,
      "end": 584.68,
      "text": "因為假設避險已經",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 412,
      "start": 584.68,
      "end": 586.413,
      "text": "不再是美債的情況之下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 413,
      "start": 586.413,
      "end": 588.313,
      "text": "個人上面選擇有哪些可能性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 414,
      "start": 588.313,
      "end": 589.48,
      "text": "黃金當然是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 415,
      "start": 589.48,
      "end": 591.046,
      "text": "美債一個重要的替代工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 416,
      "start": 591.046,
      "end": 592.38,
      "text": "所以你看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 417,
      "start": 592.38,
      "end": 594.013,
      "text": "最近你看到中國 印度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 418,
      "start": 594.013,
      "end": 595.08,
      "text": "很多東南亞國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 419,
      "start": 595.08,
      "end": 596.546,
      "text": "都跑去買黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 420,
      "start": 596.546,
      "end": 597.78,
      "text": "黃金的重要性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 421,
      "start": 597.78,
      "end": 599.113,
      "text": "除了我們剛剛講的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 422,
      "start": 599.113,
      "end": 600.313,
      "text": "好像它怎麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 423,
      "start": 600.313,
      "end": 601.246,
      "text": "就是美債的替代品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 424,
      "start": 601.306,
      "end": 602.04,
      "text": "不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 425,
      "start": 602.04,
      "end": 603.906,
      "text": "第一個 黃金它有稀少性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 426,
      "start": 603.906,
      "end": 604.64,
      "text": "我們知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 427,
      "start": 604.64,
      "end": 607.273,
      "text": "黃金在20年內可能會被挖完",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 428,
      "start": 607.273,
      "end": 608.34,
      "text": "美債沒有變少的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 429,
      "start": 608.34,
      "end": 609.406,
      "text": "美債只會債多不愁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 430,
      "start": 609.406,
      "end": 610.506,
      "text": "會愈借愈多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 431,
      "start": 610.506,
      "end": 611.306,
      "text": "另外是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 432,
      "start": 611.306,
      "end": 613.206,
      "text": "我看過一份黃金協會的報告",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 433,
      "start": 613.206,
      "end": 614.24,
      "text": "它有特別提到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 434,
      "start": 614.24,
      "end": 614.873,
      "text": "各國央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 435,
      "start": 614.873,
      "end": 616.04,
      "text": "現在為什麼都買黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 436,
      "start": 616.04,
      "end": 616.673,
      "text": "第一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 437,
      "start": 616.673,
      "end": 618.173,
      "text": "黃金沒有地緣政治風險",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 438,
      "start": 618.173,
      "end": 619.973,
      "text": "美債有 什麼都有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 439,
      "start": 619.973,
      "end": 620.64,
      "text": "就是黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 440,
      "start": 620.64,
      "end": 621.806,
      "text": "沒有一個國家會不收",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 441,
      "start": 621.806,
      "end": 622.34,
      "text": "第二個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 442,
      "start": 622.34,
      "end": 623.24,
      "text": "黃金在歷史上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 443,
      "start": 623.24,
      "end": 625.073,
      "text": "幾乎沒有違約過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 444,
      "start": 625.073,
      "end": 625.973,
      "text": "我的印象中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 445,
      "start": 625.973,
      "end": 627.406,
      "text": "黃金沒有違約過",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 446,
      "start": 627.406,
      "end": 629.306,
      "text": "但是各國的公債 股票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 447,
      "start": 629.306,
      "end": 631.24,
      "text": "時不時就傳出違約危機",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 448,
      "start": 631.24,
      "end": 632.34,
      "text": "還有信評",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 449,
      "start": 632.34,
      "end": 633.706,
      "text": "你看過黃金有什麼信評",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 450,
      "start": 633.706,
      "end": 634.84,
      "text": "你看到就收了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 451,
      "start": 634.84,
      "end": 635.606,
      "text": "所以黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 452,
      "start": 635.606,
      "end": 637.34,
      "text": "第一個它的保值性 稀少性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 453,
      "start": 637.34,
      "end": 638.44,
      "text": "讓各國央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 454,
      "start": 638.44,
      "end": 639.973,
      "text": "在未來的五年之內",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 455,
      "start": 639.973,
      "end": 641.873,
      "text": "各國央行大概有八成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 456,
      "start": 641.873,
      "end": 642.94,
      "text": "都要增持黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 457,
      "start": 642.94,
      "end": 644.373,
      "text": "另外一個增持的標的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 458,
      "start": 644.373,
      "end": 645.273,
      "text": "是人民幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 459,
      "start": 645.273,
      "end": 647.373,
      "text": "它們現在要減美金增人民幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 460,
      "start": 647.373,
      "end": 649.673,
      "text": "因為以前人民幣的比重太低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 461,
      "start": 649.673,
      "end": 651.14,
      "text": "它們並不是要把美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 462,
      "start": 651.14,
      "end": 652.006,
      "text": "要提到多高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 463,
      "start": 652.006,
      "end": 653.606,
      "text": "就是要多一點人民幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 464,
      "start": 653.606,
      "end": 655.305,
      "text": "另外就是把美金的比例降低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 465,
      "start": 655.305,
      "end": 655.873,
      "text": "這是我看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 466,
      "start": 655.873,
      "end": 656.905,
      "text": "黃金協會它的報告",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 467,
      "start": 656.905,
      "end": 658.706,
      "text": "各國要增持黃金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 468,
      "start": 658.706,
      "end": 659.706,
      "text": "增持人民幣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 469,
      "start": 659.706,
      "end": 660.806,
      "text": "但是要減少美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 470,
      "start": 660.806,
      "end": 661.64,
      "text": "大家也會問",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 471,
      "start": 661.7,
      "end": 662.733,
      "text": "印度呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 472,
      "start": 662.733,
      "end": 664.1,
      "text": "印度它的經濟表現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 473,
      "start": 664.1,
      "end": 665.933,
      "text": "在今年遇到更多的打擊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 474,
      "start": 665.933,
      "end": 668.233,
      "text": "第一個 蘋果它只吃半顆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 475,
      "start": 668.233,
      "end": 669.433,
      "text": "你知道蘋果供應鏈",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 476,
      "start": 669.433,
      "end": 670.333,
      "text": "因為台經院",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 477,
      "start": 670.333,
      "end": 671.833,
      "text": "在看數據的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 478,
      "start": 671.833,
      "end": 673.033,
      "text": "最近我們台灣外銷",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 479,
      "start": 673.033,
      "end": 674.933,
      "text": "電子零組件外銷到印度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 480,
      "start": 674.933,
      "end": 676.5,
      "text": "最近這兩個月成長很快",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 481,
      "start": 676.5,
      "end": 678.066,
      "text": "我猜一定是九月份",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 482,
      "start": 678.066,
      "end": 679.266,
      "text": "它有新機要公布",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 483,
      "start": 679.266,
      "end": 680.9,
      "text": "所以有很多東西搬過去了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 484,
      "start": 680.9,
      "end": 681.5,
      "text": "這是第一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 485,
      "start": 681.5,
      "end": 682.766,
      "text": "為什麼講半顆蘋果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 486,
      "start": 682.766,
      "end": 683.333,
      "text": "因為還有半個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 487,
      "start": 683.333,
      "end": 684.7,
      "text": "都不在你這邊工作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 488,
      "start": 684.7,
      "end": 686.766,
      "text": "在中國 在其它地方生產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 489,
      "start": 686.766,
      "end": 687.5,
      "text": "第二個是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 490,
      "start": 687.5,
      "end": 688.6,
      "text": "印度的強項是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 491,
      "start": 688.6,
      "end": 690.233,
      "text": "印度強項是軟體服務業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 492,
      "start": 690.233,
      "end": 692.433,
      "text": "這個是被AI現在打最慘的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 493,
      "start": 692.433,
      "end": 693.666,
      "text": "你知道 現在印度有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 494,
      "start": 693.666,
      "end": 695.533,
      "text": "500萬名的程式設計師",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 495,
      "start": 695.533,
      "end": 696.2,
      "text": "以後的工作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 496,
      "start": 696.2,
      "end": 698.333,
      "text": "可能AI就會逐步取代他",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 497,
      "start": 698.333,
      "end": 699.9,
      "text": "印度本來是農業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 498,
      "start": 699.9,
      "end": 701.266,
      "text": "直接跳到服務業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 499,
      "start": 701.266,
      "end": 702.833,
      "text": "中間好不容易弄個工廠去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 500,
      "start": 702.833,
      "end": 704.3,
      "text": "結果蘋果吃一半",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 501,
      "start": 704.3,
      "end": 705.3,
      "text": "AI又打它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 502,
      "start": 705.3,
      "end": 706.266,
      "text": "所以對印度來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 503,
      "start": 706.266,
      "end": 708.166,
      "text": "今年再加上中東戰爭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 504,
      "start": 708.166,
      "end": 709.8,
      "text": "印度很多能源要靠進口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 505,
      "start": 709.8,
      "end": 710.3,
      "text": "對它來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 506,
      "start": 710.3,
      "end": 711.266,
      "text": "經濟就沒有那麼好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 507,
      "start": 711.266,
      "end": 712.633,
      "text": "一樣是新興市場國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 508,
      "start": 712.633,
      "end": 715.0,
      "text": "我這邊倒不是說印度有多差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 509,
      "start": 715.0,
      "end": 715.733,
      "text": "或中國有多好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 510,
      "start": 715.733,
      "end": 717.166,
      "text": "只是說大家在思考",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 511,
      "start": 717.166,
      "end": 719.233,
      "text": "美國的替代品的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 512,
      "start": 719.233,
      "end": 721.1,
      "text": "可以從那個國家經濟強弱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 513,
      "start": 721.16,
      "end": 722.326,
      "text": "未來發展成長性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 514,
      "start": 722.326,
      "end": 723.393,
      "text": "各方面去思考",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 515,
      "start": 723.393,
      "end": 724.693,
      "text": "這個時候就不要循",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 516,
      "start": 724.693,
      "end": 725.693,
      "text": "以往的那種路徑",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 517,
      "start": 725.693,
      "end": 726.16,
      "text": "還有一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 518,
      "start": 726.16,
      "end": 727.693,
      "text": "大家可以到越南",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 519,
      "start": 727.693,
      "end": 728.693,
      "text": "越南在東南亞",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 520,
      "start": 728.693,
      "end": 730.793,
      "text": "今年會超過泰國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 521,
      "start": 730.793,
      "end": 732.593,
      "text": "成為東南亞第三大經濟體",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 522,
      "start": 732.593,
      "end": 733.293,
      "text": "大家都知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 523,
      "start": 733.293,
      "end": 734.993,
      "text": "越南這兩年的經濟發展",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 524,
      "start": 734.993,
      "end": 736.093,
      "text": "本來都做傳產",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 525,
      "start": 736.093,
      "end": 737.76,
      "text": "包包 鞋子 玩具 洋娃娃",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 526,
      "start": 737.76,
      "end": 738.526,
      "text": "這兩年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 527,
      "start": 738.526,
      "end": 740.426,
      "text": "越南也開始走入電子業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 528,
      "start": 740.426,
      "end": 741.193,
      "text": "另外一個是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 529,
      "start": 741.193,
      "end": 743.126,
      "text": "越南現在大量投入公共建設",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 530,
      "start": 743.126,
      "end": 744.893,
      "text": "所以我這邊有個我的觀察是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 531,
      "start": 744.893,
      "end": 747.26,
      "text": "越南非常像1990年的台灣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 532,
      "start": 747.26,
      "end": 749.093,
      "text": "可能觀眾年紀太輕了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 533,
      "start": 749.093,
      "end": 750.36,
      "text": "不知道1990年的台灣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 534,
      "start": 750.36,
      "end": 751.36,
      "text": "當時台灣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 535,
      "start": 751.36,
      "end": 753.693,
      "text": "正好從傳產走向科技業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 536,
      "start": 753.693,
      "end": 754.393,
      "text": "另外是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 537,
      "start": 754.393,
      "end": 756.025,
      "text": "當時有很多的外資 金融業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 538,
      "start": 756.025,
      "end": 757.126,
      "text": "跑到台灣來布局",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 539,
      "start": 757.126,
      "end": 758.26,
      "text": "因為中國沒開放",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 540,
      "start": 758.26,
      "end": 759.76,
      "text": "它們先來台灣練兵",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 541,
      "start": 759.76,
      "end": 761.76,
      "text": "台灣又開放了20家新銀行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 542,
      "start": 761.76,
      "end": 764.326,
      "text": "對於我年輕的那個時候來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 543,
      "start": 764.326,
      "end": 766.025,
      "text": "1990年是一個很美好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 544,
      "start": 766.025,
      "end": 767.993,
      "text": "各個產業百花齊放的年代",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 545,
      "start": 767.993,
      "end": 769.025,
      "text": "另外一個就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 546,
      "start": 769.025,
      "end": 769.893,
      "text": "我們當時蓋了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 547,
      "start": 769.893,
      "end": 771.56,
      "text": "第一條捷運文湖線",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 548,
      "start": 771.56,
      "end": 773.126,
      "text": "開始蓋第一條高鐵",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 549,
      "start": 773.126,
      "end": 773.893,
      "text": "越南現在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 550,
      "start": 773.893,
      "end": 775.093,
      "text": "我們剛剛講的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 551,
      "start": 775.093,
      "end": 776.626,
      "text": "也在越南同步的發生",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 552,
      "start": 776.626,
      "end": 777.693,
      "text": "所以當美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 553,
      "start": 777.693,
      "end": 778.693,
      "text": "或者是日本公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 554,
      "start": 778.693,
      "end": 779.793,
      "text": "老牌國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 555,
      "start": 779.793,
      "end": 781.76,
      "text": "最近看起來風雨飄搖的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 556,
      "start": 781.82,
      "end": 783.22,
      "text": "大家也可以去注意一下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 557,
      "start": 783.22,
      "end": 785.886,
      "text": "中國 東南亞或其它的地方",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 558,
      "start": 785.886,
      "end": 786.686,
      "text": "有哪一些國家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 559,
      "start": 786.686,
      "end": 787.92,
      "text": "它的經濟發展比較好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 560,
      "start": 787.92,
      "end": 789.286,
      "text": "不管是股 債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 561,
      "start": 789.286,
      "end": 790.286,
      "text": "或其它金融商品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 562,
      "start": 790.286,
      "end": 791.02,
      "text": "都可以思考",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 563,
      "start": 791.02,
      "end": 792.62,
      "text": "更加分散跟多元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 564,
      "start": 792.62,
      "end": 794.386,
      "text": "我們回到美國本身的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 565,
      "start": 794.386,
      "end": 795.92,
      "text": "財政部跟聯準會的工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 566,
      "start": 795.92,
      "end": 796.553,
      "text": "一個是財政工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 567,
      "start": 796.553,
      "end": 797.786,
      "text": "一個是貨幣政策工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 568,
      "start": 797.786,
      "end": 798.82,
      "text": "我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 569,
      "start": 798.82,
      "end": 800.02,
      "text": "美國財政部非常努力的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 570,
      "start": 800.02,
      "end": 801.32,
      "text": "希望救美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 571,
      "start": 801.32,
      "end": 802.186,
      "text": "但是我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 572,
      "start": 802.186,
      "end": 804.153,
      "text": "最近這一次傑克森洞出來的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 573,
      "start": 804.153,
      "end": 805.12,
      "text": "聯準會主席講話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 574,
      "start": 805.12,
      "end": 806.353,
      "text": "大家認為",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 575,
      "start": 806.353,
      "end": 807.72,
      "text": "解讀是偏鷹的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 576,
      "start": 807.72,
      "end": 809.986,
      "text": "認為說可能今年年底之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 577,
      "start": 809.986,
      "end": 811.02,
      "text": "至少升息一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 578,
      "start": 811.02,
      "end": 811.753,
      "text": "甚至兩次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 579,
      "start": 811.753,
      "end": 812.353,
      "text": "因為認為說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 580,
      "start": 812.353,
      "end": 814.02,
      "text": "他還是看通膨數字為主",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 581,
      "start": 814.02,
      "end": 815.02,
      "text": "尤其現在中東戰事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 582,
      "start": 815.02,
      "end": 817.72,
      "text": "又有新一波的軍事行動",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 583,
      "start": 817.72,
      "end": 819.353,
      "text": "所以我們看到這兩邊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 584,
      "start": 819.353,
      "end": 820.753,
      "text": "如果說美國財政部在做的是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 585,
      "start": 820.753,
      "end": 822.12,
      "text": "變相寬鬆的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 586,
      "start": 822.12,
      "end": 823.953,
      "text": "聯準會在做的事是矛盾",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 587,
      "start": 823.953,
      "end": 824.953,
      "text": "另外一方面的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 588,
      "start": 824.953,
      "end": 825.953,
      "text": "這兩個政策上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 589,
      "start": 825.953,
      "end": 828.386,
      "text": "有沒有互相彼此之間干涉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 590,
      "start": 828.386,
      "end": 830.286,
      "text": "甚至產生矛盾的情況",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 591,
      "start": 830.286,
      "end": 832.085,
      "text": "看起來是好像有兩個人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 592,
      "start": 832.085,
      "end": 833.42,
      "text": "我們兩個意見不一",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 593,
      "start": 833.42,
      "end": 835.52,
      "text": "不是 我們兩個做一件事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 594,
      "start": 835.52,
      "end": 836.986,
      "text": "美國去救日圓的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 595,
      "start": 836.986,
      "end": 838.12,
      "text": "聯準會做什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 596,
      "start": 838.12,
      "end": 839.82,
      "text": "聯準會接受了日本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 597,
      "start": 839.82,
      "end": 840.92,
      "text": "拿美債來抵押",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 598,
      "start": 840.92,
      "end": 841.653,
      "text": "我借錢給你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 599,
      "start": 841.713,
      "end": 842.646,
      "text": "它在寬鬆",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 600,
      "start": 842.646,
      "end": 843.913,
      "text": "它什麼時候鷹過了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 601,
      "start": 843.913,
      "end": 844.913,
      "text": "另外一個就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 602,
      "start": 844.913,
      "end": 847.78,
      "text": "當財政部要去救美債的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 603,
      "start": 847.78,
      "end": 849.746,
      "text": "資金寬鬆它也沒講話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 604,
      "start": 849.746,
      "end": 851.546,
      "text": "所以你表面上看我講話很硬",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 605,
      "start": 851.546,
      "end": 853.18,
      "text": "但你每次做什麼我都幫你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 606,
      "start": 853.18,
      "end": 854.446,
      "text": "你看到一次救日圓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 607,
      "start": 854.446,
      "end": 855.346,
      "text": "一次救美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 608,
      "start": 855.346,
      "end": 856.58,
      "text": "一個是財政部放水",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 609,
      "start": 856.58,
      "end": 857.78,
      "text": "一個是聯準會放水",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 610,
      "start": 857.78,
      "end": 859.413,
      "text": "兩個還是把水給放出去了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 611,
      "start": 859.413,
      "end": 861.413,
      "text": "聯準會現在在顧慮的是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 612,
      "start": 861.413,
      "end": 862.68,
      "text": "因為這位聯準會主席",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 613,
      "start": 862.68,
      "end": 864.346,
      "text": "你也先給他一點時間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 614,
      "start": 864.346,
      "end": 865.713,
      "text": "他上任才兩個多月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 615,
      "start": 865.713,
      "end": 867.446,
      "text": "結果他這兩個月都在做什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 616,
      "start": 867.446,
      "end": 868.58,
      "text": "調查數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 617,
      "start": 868.58,
      "end": 869.58,
      "text": "他一直告訴你說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 618,
      "start": 869.58,
      "end": 870.146,
      "text": "美國不是有個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 619,
      "start": 870.146,
      "end": 871.113,
      "text": "PCE(個人消費支出物價指數)",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 620,
      "start": 871.113,
      "end": 873.413,
      "text": "他說那個PCE的數據太粗糙",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 621,
      "start": 873.413,
      "end": 875.346,
      "text": "太粗糙 我們以後要精煉它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 622,
      "start": 875.346,
      "end": 878.28,
      "text": "我那時候看了達拉斯聯準會",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 623,
      "start": 878.28,
      "end": 879.48,
      "text": "他們做了一個統計",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 624,
      "start": 879.48,
      "end": 882.613,
      "text": "如果照你這種精煉的PCE",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 625,
      "start": 882.613,
      "end": 884.38,
      "text": "你的物價現在只有2％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 626,
      "start": 884.38,
      "end": 885.913,
      "text": "就是聯準會的目標",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 627,
      "start": 885.913,
      "end": 887.38,
      "text": "所以聯準會如果過兩個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 628,
      "start": 887.38,
      "end": 889.08,
      "text": "真的 我研發成功了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 629,
      "start": 889.08,
      "end": 890.946,
      "text": "這個新的PCE",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 630,
      "start": 890.946,
      "end": 892.813,
      "text": "你會發現PCE竟然只有2％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 631,
      "start": 892.813,
      "end": 893.58,
      "text": "因為他把會變的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 632,
      "start": 893.58,
      "end": 894.48,
      "text": "都把你拿掉了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 633,
      "start": 894.48,
      "end": 895.38,
      "text": "但是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 634,
      "start": 895.38,
      "end": 897.513,
      "text": "美國經過這個數據的精煉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 635,
      "start": 897.513,
      "end": 899.213,
      "text": "再加上聯準會它表面上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 636,
      "start": 899.213,
      "end": 900.313,
      "text": "你一直在猜要升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 637,
      "start": 900.313,
      "end": 901.546,
      "text": "它沒有 它要縮表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 638,
      "start": 901.606,
      "end": 902.473,
      "text": "縮表的意思",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 639,
      "start": 902.473,
      "end": 904.006,
      "text": "它就不要買美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 640,
      "start": 904.006,
      "end": 905.14,
      "text": "甚至手上的美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 641,
      "start": 905.14,
      "end": 906.04,
      "text": "給你倒出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 642,
      "start": 906.04,
      "end": 908.473,
      "text": "這對美國公債其實就更不利",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 643,
      "start": 908.473,
      "end": 909.873,
      "text": "但是這個是長遠的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 644,
      "start": 909.873,
      "end": 911.873,
      "text": "短期 你要期待它升息嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 645,
      "start": 911.873,
      "end": 914.273,
      "text": "你現在物價已經這麼高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 646,
      "start": 914.273,
      "end": 916.14,
      "text": "金融市場最近也不太穩定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 647,
      "start": 916.14,
      "end": 917.873,
      "text": "最近是股債都不是很穩定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 648,
      "start": 917.873,
      "end": 919.34,
      "text": "你這時候再升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 649,
      "start": 919.34,
      "end": 921.173,
      "text": "對於11月的美國大選來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 650,
      "start": 921.173,
      "end": 922.706,
      "text": "是一個不是很好的消息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 651,
      "start": 922.706,
      "end": 924.406,
      "text": "但是回到美債問題來說的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 652,
      "start": 924.406,
      "end": 925.84,
      "text": "我們看到說終究",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 653,
      "start": 925.84,
      "end": 927.506,
      "text": "現在赤字還有2兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 654,
      "start": 927.506,
      "end": 929.006,
      "text": "然後每一年持續增加上去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 655,
      "start": 929.006,
      "end": 931.64,
      "text": "而且2017年當時川普",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 656,
      "start": 931.64,
      "end": 932.873,
      "text": "川普1.0的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 657,
      "start": 932.873,
      "end": 934.673,
      "text": "當時只有20兆美元的美債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 658,
      "start": 934.673,
      "end": 935.44,
      "text": "現在直接翻倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 659,
      "start": 935.44,
      "end": 936.14,
      "text": "變40兆美元了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 660,
      "start": 936.14,
      "end": 936.973,
      "text": "這個數字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 661,
      "start": 936.973,
      "end": 938.606,
      "text": "持續在增加的情況之下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 662,
      "start": 938.606,
      "end": 940.04,
      "text": "後續到底該如何解決",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 663,
      "start": 940.04,
      "end": 940.506,
      "text": "我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 664,
      "start": 940.506,
      "end": 941.673,
      "text": "美國官方有提出一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 665,
      "start": 941.673,
      "end": 943.44,
      "text": "解決方案就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 666,
      "start": 943.44,
      "end": 945.54,
      "text": "AI能夠帶來經濟爆發性成長",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 667,
      "start": 945.54,
      "end": 947.305,
      "text": "會把美國的財政赤字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 668,
      "start": 947.305,
      "end": 948.873,
      "text": "降到GDP 3％左右",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 669,
      "start": 948.873,
      "end": 950.073,
      "text": "馬斯克也提到說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 670,
      "start": 950.073,
      "end": 952.34,
      "text": "AI會創造大量的生產效率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 671,
      "start": 952.34,
      "end": 953.54,
      "text": "能夠提升GDP",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 672,
      "start": 953.54,
      "end": 955.373,
      "text": "AI能夠解決",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 673,
      "start": 955.373,
      "end": 957.705,
      "text": "終結美債持續上升的問題嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 674,
      "start": 957.705,
      "end": 959.273,
      "text": "如果解決不了的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 675,
      "start": 959.273,
      "end": 960.305,
      "text": "川普還說了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 676,
      "start": 960.305,
      "end": 961.273,
      "text": "還有美軍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 677,
      "start": 961.273,
      "end": 962.84,
      "text": "什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 678,
      "start": 962.9,
      "end": 963.4,
      "text": "第一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 679,
      "start": 963.4,
      "end": 964.3,
      "text": "這個聯準會的主席",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 680,
      "start": 964.3,
      "end": 966.266,
      "text": "其實他上任前跟上任後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 681,
      "start": 966.266,
      "end": 968.333,
      "text": "一直提到1990年代",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 682,
      "start": 968.333,
      "end": 970.066,
      "text": "那個美好的年代是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 683,
      "start": 970.066,
      "end": 971.666,
      "text": "生產力很高 物價很低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 684,
      "start": 971.666,
      "end": 972.6,
      "text": "什麼叫生產力很高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 685,
      "start": 972.6,
      "end": 973.5,
      "text": "舉個例子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 686,
      "start": 973.5,
      "end": 974.433,
      "text": "在我年輕的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 687,
      "start": 974.433,
      "end": 975.466,
      "text": "在我小的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 688,
      "start": 975.466,
      "end": 977.566,
      "text": "我們到銀行辦事都人工作業",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 689,
      "start": 977.566,
      "end": 978.866,
      "text": "那些銀行的作業人員",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 690,
      "start": 978.866,
      "end": 979.866,
      "text": "都要到後面的櫃子裡面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 691,
      "start": 979.866,
      "end": 982.466,
      "text": "拿出你的存款資料跟你核對",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 692,
      "start": 982.466,
      "end": 984.433,
      "text": "結果後來到1990年以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 693,
      "start": 984.433,
      "end": 985.8,
      "text": "它的生產力大幅提升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 694,
      "start": 985.8,
      "end": 987.266,
      "text": "當時銀行都有小電腦",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 695,
      "start": 987.266,
      "end": 988.1,
      "text": "也有ATM",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 696,
      "start": 988.1,
      "end": 990.0,
      "text": "所以銀行的業務量增加很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 697,
      "start": 990.0,
      "end": 991.866,
      "text": "但銀行的人沒有變太多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 698,
      "start": 991.866,
      "end": 993.5,
      "text": "這叫生產力提升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 699,
      "start": 993.5,
      "end": 995.466,
      "text": "第二個是1990年全球化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 700,
      "start": 995.466,
      "end": 996.966,
      "text": "工廠都搬到中國去了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 701,
      "start": 996.966,
      "end": 998.633,
      "text": "搬到中國 東南亞",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 702,
      "start": 998.633,
      "end": 1000.5,
      "text": "生產成本可以壓得非常的低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 703,
      "start": 1000.5,
      "end": 1003.0,
      "text": "所以1990年代生產力提高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 704,
      "start": 1003.0,
      "end": 1004.3,
      "text": "因為有電腦化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 705,
      "start": 1004.3,
      "end": 1005.866,
      "text": "另外一個是通膨降低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 706,
      "start": 1005.866,
      "end": 1007.2,
      "text": "是因為當時全球化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 707,
      "start": 1007.2,
      "end": 1008.2,
      "text": "聯準會主席",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 708,
      "start": 1008.2,
      "end": 1009.833,
      "text": "一直把這件事情放在今天",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 709,
      "start": 1009.833,
      "end": 1010.833,
      "text": "那是不對的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 710,
      "start": 1010.833,
      "end": 1013.066,
      "text": "今天的AI有讓東西變便宜嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 711,
      "start": 1013.066,
      "end": 1013.666,
      "text": "沒有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 712,
      "start": 1013.666,
      "end": 1015.033,
      "text": "至於生產力有沒有提升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 713,
      "start": 1015.033,
      "end": 1016.765,
      "text": "目前我們看到有一部分",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 714,
      "start": 1016.765,
      "end": 1017.866,
      "text": "但是那個生產力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 715,
      "start": 1017.866,
      "end": 1018.933,
      "text": "需要我花1兆美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 716,
      "start": 1018.933,
      "end": 1020.466,
      "text": "去推那個生產力嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 717,
      "start": 1020.466,
      "end": 1021.9,
      "text": "我是有點質疑的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 718,
      "start": 1021.96,
      "end": 1023.193,
      "text": "另外就是全球化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 719,
      "start": 1023.193,
      "end": 1024.626,
      "text": "這點大家都沒有提到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 720,
      "start": 1024.626,
      "end": 1026.392,
      "text": "我們現在是反全球化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 721,
      "start": 1026.392,
      "end": 1027.993,
      "text": "我們現在工廠搬到美國去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 722,
      "start": 1027.993,
      "end": 1028.758,
      "text": "很多的廠商",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 723,
      "start": 1028.758,
      "end": 1029.758,
      "text": "像石化業者",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 724,
      "start": 1029.758,
      "end": 1031.593,
      "text": "像一些網通業者都告訴我",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 725,
      "start": 1031.593,
      "end": 1032.66,
      "text": "在美國經營的成本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 726,
      "start": 1032.66,
      "end": 1034.06,
      "text": "是台灣的四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 727,
      "start": 1034.06,
      "end": 1034.892,
      "text": "四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 728,
      "start": 1034.892,
      "end": 1036.325,
      "text": "你在台灣加了稅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 729,
      "start": 1036.325,
      "end": 1037.793,
      "text": "加100％都沒有它高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 730,
      "start": 1037.793,
      "end": 1038.624,
      "text": "這些成本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 731,
      "start": 1038.624,
      "end": 1040.293,
      "text": "不管你在墨西哥 哪裡做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 732,
      "start": 1040.293,
      "end": 1041.026,
      "text": "最後這些成本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 733,
      "start": 1041.026,
      "end": 1042.86,
      "text": "可能都要轉嫁到售價上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 734,
      "start": 1042.86,
      "end": 1043.892,
      "text": "那你的物價怎麼降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 735,
      "start": 1043.892,
      "end": 1044.593,
      "text": "再來就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 736,
      "start": 1044.593,
      "end": 1046.392,
      "text": "美國如果靠AI",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 737,
      "start": 1046.392,
      "end": 1047.459,
      "text": "未來的生產力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 738,
      "start": 1047.459,
      "end": 1049.46,
      "text": "可能目前短期還看不到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 739,
      "start": 1049.46,
      "end": 1050.593,
      "text": "靠美軍呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 740,
      "start": 1050.593,
      "end": 1052.36,
      "text": "是不是發動一場戰爭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 741,
      "start": 1052.36,
      "end": 1053.393,
      "text": "讓物價",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 742,
      "start": 1053.393,
      "end": 1055.126,
      "text": "或者讓原物料漲得更多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 743,
      "start": 1055.126,
      "end": 1055.926,
      "text": "你知道漲物價",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 744,
      "start": 1055.926,
      "end": 1057.46,
      "text": "才是還債的好方式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 745,
      "start": 1057.46,
      "end": 1058.06,
      "text": "你想想看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 746,
      "start": 1058.06,
      "end": 1059.326,
      "text": "你跟銀行借一筆錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 747,
      "start": 1059.326,
      "end": 1060.326,
      "text": "借了200萬元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 748,
      "start": 1060.326,
      "end": 1061.493,
      "text": "10年後 20年後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 749,
      "start": 1061.493,
      "end": 1062.593,
      "text": "200萬元還是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 750,
      "start": 1062.593,
      "end": 1063.626,
      "text": "現在美國你不要看它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 751,
      "start": 1063.626,
      "end": 1065.026,
      "text": "40兆美元比天高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 752,
      "start": 1065.026,
      "end": 1066.726,
      "text": "如果美國真的打一場仗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 753,
      "start": 1066.726,
      "end": 1068.36,
      "text": "讓通膨提高的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 754,
      "start": 1068.36,
      "end": 1069.26,
      "text": "那也不是什麼問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 755,
      "start": 1069.26,
      "end": 1069.96,
      "text": "最後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 756,
      "start": 1069.96,
      "end": 1072.526,
      "text": "聯準會現在跟1990年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 757,
      "start": 1072.526,
      "end": 1073.26,
      "text": "還有一個不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 758,
      "start": 1073.26,
      "end": 1074.426,
      "text": "1990年的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 759,
      "start": 1074.426,
      "end": 1076.226,
      "text": "美國是有財政盈餘的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 760,
      "start": 1076.226,
      "end": 1077.893,
      "text": "當時美國收的稅不但夠用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 761,
      "start": 1077.893,
      "end": 1079.426,
      "text": "還利息都不是問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 762,
      "start": 1079.426,
      "end": 1081.16,
      "text": "所以聯準會可以升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 763,
      "start": 1081.16,
      "end": 1082.393,
      "text": "但你剛剛也提到了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 764,
      "start": 1082.453,
      "end": 1084.12,
      "text": "美國現在一年6兆美元支出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 765,
      "start": 1084.12,
      "end": 1085.253,
      "text": "1兆美元是利息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 766,
      "start": 1085.253,
      "end": 1086.653,
      "text": "如果現在聯準會再升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 767,
      "start": 1086.653,
      "end": 1087.986,
      "text": "就變得跟剛剛日本一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 768,
      "start": 1087.986,
      "end": 1088.853,
      "text": "講的日本一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 769,
      "start": 1088.853,
      "end": 1089.953,
      "text": "你只要升一點點",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 770,
      "start": 1089.953,
      "end": 1091.353,
      "text": "我的利息支出就多很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 771,
      "start": 1091.353,
      "end": 1092.986,
      "text": "那些錢完全沒有做任何事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 772,
      "start": 1092.986,
      "end": 1094.186,
      "text": "就給人家利息錢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 773,
      "start": 1094.186,
      "end": 1095.62,
      "text": "聯準會能升息嗎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 774,
      "start": 1095.62,
      "end": 1096.253,
      "text": "所以這個時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 775,
      "start": 1096.253,
      "end": 1097.82,
      "text": "你在看聯準會升降息的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 776,
      "start": 1097.82,
      "end": 1100.053,
      "text": "也不要去考慮物價 通膨",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 777,
      "start": 1100.053,
      "end": 1100.786,
      "text": "我覺得那個只是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 778,
      "start": 1100.786,
      "end": 1102.186,
      "text": "參考因素之一",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 779,
      "start": 1102.186,
      "end": 1103.22,
      "text": "它可以把那個數字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 780,
      "start": 1103.22,
      "end": 1104.686,
      "text": "精煉到2％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 781,
      "start": 1104.686,
      "end": 1106.286,
      "text": "我要做2％給你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 782,
      "start": 1106.286,
      "end": 1107.52,
      "text": "要多少 我做給你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 783,
      "start": 1107.52,
      "end": 1108.82,
      "text": "但是另外一方面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 784,
      "start": 1108.82,
      "end": 1110.32,
      "text": "聯準會真的不能升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 785,
      "start": 1110.32,
      "end": 1111.52,
      "text": "有它的難言之隱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 786,
      "start": 1111.52,
      "end": 1112.22,
      "text": "我再升息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 787,
      "start": 1112.22,
      "end": 1113.32,
      "text": "美國財政就爆掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 788,
      "start": 1113.32,
      "end": 1114.02,
      "text": "其實日本央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 789,
      "start": 1114.02,
      "end": 1114.853,
      "text": "也是這個問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 790,
      "start": 1114.853,
      "end": 1115.42,
      "text": "美國央行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 791,
      "start": 1115.42,
      "end": 1116.153,
      "text": "也是這個問題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 792,
      "start": 1116.153,
      "end": 1116.72,
      "text": "所以大家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 793,
      "start": 1116.72,
      "end": 1117.62,
      "text": "在看美國公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 794,
      "start": 1117.62,
      "end": 1118.52,
      "text": "日本公債",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 795,
      "start": 1118.52,
      "end": 1119.753,
      "text": "還有匯率問題的時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 796,
      "start": 1119.753,
      "end": 1120.453,
      "text": "要把這些東西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 797,
      "start": 1120.453,
      "end": 1121.22,
      "text": "綜合來看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 798,
      "start": 1121.386,
      "end": 1123.686,
      "text": "回頭看AI本身目前的榮景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 799,
      "start": 1123.686,
      "end": 1124.953,
      "text": "或者是有可能的隱憂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 800,
      "start": 1124.953,
      "end": 1126.753,
      "text": "如果說五年後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 801,
      "start": 1126.753,
      "end": 1130.02,
      "text": "到底一片GPU能折價多少",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 802,
      "start": 1130.02,
      "end": 1131.42,
      "text": "我們從過去歷史經驗來看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 803,
      "start": 1131.42,
      "end": 1132.586,
      "text": "我查了一些數字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 804,
      "start": 1132.586,
      "end": 1133.92,
      "text": "包括說A100晶片",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 805,
      "start": 1133.92,
      "end": 1135.886,
      "text": "它其實到現在還能夠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 806,
      "start": 1135.886,
      "end": 1138.286,
      "text": "每小時的租金還能夠再收",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 807,
      "start": 1138.286,
      "end": 1139.92,
      "text": "如果說從現在開始",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 808,
      "start": 1139.92,
      "end": 1140.92,
      "text": "五年後的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 809,
      "start": 1140.92,
      "end": 1142.92,
      "text": "這些手上的GPU",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 810,
      "start": 1142.92,
      "end": 1144.986,
      "text": "它也不見得會完全過時",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 811,
      "start": 1144.986,
      "end": 1146.386,
      "text": "也許還能夠產生收益",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 812,
      "start": 1146.386,
      "end": 1147.82,
      "text": "從這個角度來看的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 813,
      "start": 1147.82,
      "end": 1148.953,
      "text": "是不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 814,
      "start": 1148.953,
      "end": 1150.086,
      "text": "它能夠安然度過這一局",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 815,
      "start": 1150.086,
      "end": 1150.653,
      "text": "因為我們畢竟看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 816,
      "start": 1150.653,
      "end": 1151.553,
      "text": "輝達的GPU",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 817,
      "start": 1151.553,
      "end": 1152.453,
      "text": "雖然它泛用的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 818,
      "start": 1152.453,
      "end": 1153.653,
      "text": "大家都在用ASIC晶片",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 819,
      "start": 1153.653,
      "end": 1154.62,
      "text": "在做自己的TPU",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 820,
      "start": 1154.62,
      "end": 1155.853,
      "text": "做自己的各式晶片",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 821,
      "start": 1155.853,
      "end": 1156.686,
      "text": "台灣沒事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 822,
      "start": 1156.686,
      "end": 1158.286,
      "text": "但是輝達感覺上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 823,
      "start": 1158.286,
      "end": 1160.453,
      "text": "也能夠安然度過這一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 824,
      "start": 1160.453,
      "end": 1161.586,
      "text": "科技的東西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 825,
      "start": 1161.586,
      "end": 1162.853,
      "text": "我們還看不到那麼遠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 826,
      "start": 1162.853,
      "end": 1163.753,
      "text": "連他自己都看不出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 827,
      "start": 1163.753,
      "end": 1164.886,
      "text": "咱們也看不出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 828,
      "start": 1164.886,
      "end": 1166.086,
      "text": "但是我這邊可以告訴大家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 829,
      "start": 1166.086,
      "end": 1167.353,
      "text": "我最近的一個觀察",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 830,
      "start": 1167.353,
      "end": 1168.02,
      "text": "可能大家知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 831,
      "start": 1168.02,
      "end": 1169.453,
      "text": "這兩年AI都很紅",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 832,
      "start": 1169.453,
      "end": 1170.32,
      "text": "請問AI有沒有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 833,
      "start": 1170.32,
      "end": 1171.986,
      "text": "像我們股市那樣一波一波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 834,
      "start": 1171.986,
      "end": 1173.22,
      "text": "我這邊發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 835,
      "start": 1173.22,
      "end": 1174.753,
      "text": "你用我們台灣的外銷數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 836,
      "start": 1174.753,
      "end": 1175.486,
      "text": "你可以發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 837,
      "start": 1175.486,
      "end": 1177.153,
      "text": "我們的AI其實是有兩波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 838,
      "start": 1177.153,
      "end": 1178.486,
      "text": "第一波 我們的外銷成長",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 839,
      "start": 1178.486,
      "end": 1180.086,
      "text": "我先告訴大家一個基本數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 840,
      "start": 1180.086,
      "end": 1181.886,
      "text": "我們在2023年的1月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 841,
      "start": 1181.946,
      "end": 1183.013,
      "text": "我們外銷美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 842,
      "start": 1183.013,
      "end": 1184.88,
      "text": "就是伺服器賣美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 843,
      "start": 1184.88,
      "end": 1186.446,
      "text": "因為我抓得到那個數據",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 844,
      "start": 1186.446,
      "end": 1188.38,
      "text": "一個月是20億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 845,
      "start": 1188.38,
      "end": 1190.58,
      "text": "然後到了一年半之後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 846,
      "start": 1190.58,
      "end": 1191.713,
      "text": "我們就從20億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 847,
      "start": 1191.713,
      "end": 1192.58,
      "text": "變80億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 848,
      "start": 1192.58,
      "end": 1193.713,
      "text": "這一波是第一波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 849,
      "start": 1193.713,
      "end": 1194.98,
      "text": "我們的AI大爆發",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 850,
      "start": 1194.98,
      "end": 1196.446,
      "text": "從20億美金變80億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 851,
      "start": 1196.446,
      "end": 1197.545,
      "text": "我們成長了四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 852,
      "start": 1197.545,
      "end": 1198.413,
      "text": "當時是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 853,
      "start": 1198.413,
      "end": 1199.413,
      "text": "H100",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 854,
      "start": 1199.413,
      "end": 1202.545,
      "text": "當時是生成式模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 855,
      "start": 1202.545,
      "end": 1203.146,
      "text": "你還記不記得那個時候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 856,
      "start": 1203.146,
      "end": 1204.746,
      "text": "大家動不動就在畫圖",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 857,
      "start": 1204.746,
      "end": 1207.646,
      "text": "畫吉卜力 各種風格的圖形",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 858,
      "start": 1207.646,
      "end": 1209.08,
      "text": "那個時候大家覺得這不錯",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 859,
      "start": 1209.08,
      "end": 1210.446,
      "text": "所以帶動了一波成長",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 860,
      "start": 1210.446,
      "end": 1212.013,
      "text": "那一波大概多久",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 861,
      "start": 1212.013,
      "end": 1212.813,
      "text": "我告訴大家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 862,
      "start": 1212.813,
      "end": 1214.713,
      "text": "那一波從底到最高峰",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 863,
      "start": 1214.713,
      "end": 1216.346,
      "text": "大概10到12個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 864,
      "start": 1216.346,
      "end": 1217.846,
      "text": "後來它就慢慢往下掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 865,
      "start": 1217.846,
      "end": 1219.013,
      "text": "因為當時的H100",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 866,
      "start": 1219.013,
      "end": 1220.413,
      "text": "有些生產的瓶頸",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 867,
      "start": 1220.413,
      "end": 1221.746,
      "text": "再加上生成式模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 868,
      "start": 1221.746,
      "end": 1222.913,
      "text": "大家用了一年以後",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 869,
      "start": 1222.913,
      "end": 1224.513,
      "text": "發現還是有一些問題卡卡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 870,
      "start": 1224.513,
      "end": 1225.646,
      "text": "就沒有再用下去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 871,
      "start": 1225.646,
      "end": 1227.446,
      "text": "所以第一波是一年半",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 872,
      "start": 1227.446,
      "end": 1229.18,
      "text": "第二波是從什麼時候開始",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 873,
      "start": 1229.18,
      "end": 1230.946,
      "text": "是從去年年初開始",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 874,
      "start": 1230.946,
      "end": 1232.18,
      "text": "這一波我們外銷成長",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 875,
      "start": 1232.18,
      "end": 1234.146,
      "text": "是從一個月50億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 876,
      "start": 1234.146,
      "end": 1235.58,
      "text": "增加到一個月200億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 877,
      "start": 1235.58,
      "end": 1237.113,
      "text": "所以我們台灣這幾個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 878,
      "start": 1237.113,
      "end": 1237.746,
      "text": "大概外銷都是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 879,
      "start": 1237.746,
      "end": 1239.813,
      "text": "190億 200億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 880,
      "start": 1239.813,
      "end": 1240.545,
      "text": "我們從50億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 881,
      "start": 1240.545,
      "end": 1241.113,
      "text": "變200億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 882,
      "start": 1241.113,
      "end": 1241.813,
      "text": "增加了四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 883,
      "start": 1241.873,
      "end": 1243.573,
      "text": "第一波我們增加了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 884,
      "start": 1243.573,
      "end": 1244.806,
      "text": "我們第一波是從20億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 885,
      "start": 1244.806,
      "end": 1245.406,
      "text": "變80億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 886,
      "start": 1245.406,
      "end": 1245.973,
      "text": "四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 887,
      "start": 1245.973,
      "end": 1246.94,
      "text": "第二波也是四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 888,
      "start": 1246.94,
      "end": 1247.906,
      "text": "所以我們台灣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 889,
      "start": 1247.906,
      "end": 1249.506,
      "text": "我把最後整個數字說出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 890,
      "start": 1249.506,
      "end": 1251.073,
      "text": "我們從2億美金變200億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 891,
      "start": 1251.073,
      "end": 1252.673,
      "text": "我們增加了十倍之多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 892,
      "start": 1252.673,
      "end": 1253.473,
      "text": "這中間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 893,
      "start": 1253.473,
      "end": 1255.473,
      "text": "它並不是一次上來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 894,
      "start": 1255.473,
      "end": 1257.14,
      "text": "是第一波一年半",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 895,
      "start": 1257.14,
      "end": 1258.14,
      "text": "第二波又一年半",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 896,
      "start": 1258.14,
      "end": 1258.773,
      "text": "第二波賣什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 897,
      "start": 1258.773,
      "end": 1259.94,
      "text": "GB200",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 898,
      "start": 1259.94,
      "end": 1261.34,
      "text": "又開始助理式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 899,
      "start": 1261.34,
      "end": 1262.806,
      "text": "最近這幾個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 900,
      "start": 1262.806,
      "end": 1264.44,
      "text": "其實我先告訴大家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 901,
      "start": 1264.44,
      "end": 1265.273,
      "text": "為什麼這幾個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 902,
      "start": 1265.273,
      "end": 1266.773,
      "text": "你會發現AI怎麼漲不動",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 903,
      "start": 1266.773,
      "end": 1267.606,
      "text": "我們台灣這幾個月的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 904,
      "start": 1267.606,
      "end": 1269.173,
      "text": "外銷金額是平的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 905,
      "start": 1269.173,
      "end": 1271.406,
      "text": "我們每個月都190億美金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 906,
      "start": 1271.406,
      "end": 1273.273,
      "text": "可是政府不是公布說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 907,
      "start": 1273.273,
      "end": 1274.04,
      "text": "成長率很高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 908,
      "start": 1274.04,
      "end": 1275.506,
      "text": "那是因為去年的基期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 909,
      "start": 1275.506,
      "end": 1276.74,
      "text": "我們去年基期很低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 910,
      "start": 1276.74,
      "end": 1277.94,
      "text": "所以你看到成長率",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 911,
      "start": 1277.94,
      "end": 1279.773,
      "text": "我們的成長率是從",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 912,
      "start": 1279.773,
      "end": 1281.94,
      "text": "100％ 80％ 60％",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 913,
      "start": 1281.94,
      "end": 1282.973,
      "text": "因為你後面的金額愈高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 914,
      "start": 1282.973,
      "end": 1283.94,
      "text": "它就掉得愈多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 915,
      "start": 1283.94,
      "end": 1285.14,
      "text": "所以我們最近又進入一個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 916,
      "start": 1285.14,
      "end": 1286.94,
      "text": "AI的休息期間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 917,
      "start": 1286.94,
      "end": 1289.44,
      "text": "上坡10個月 下坡6個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 918,
      "start": 1289.44,
      "end": 1291.006,
      "text": "我們現在進入了下坡6個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 919,
      "start": 1291.006,
      "end": 1292.173,
      "text": "所以現在黃仁勳",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 920,
      "start": 1292.173,
      "end": 1293.606,
      "text": "最近為什麼要集資",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 921,
      "start": 1293.606,
      "end": 1295.506,
      "text": "他現在正在醞釀第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 922,
      "start": 1295.506,
      "end": 1298.14,
      "text": "第三波一定要有新模型加上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 923,
      "start": 1298.14,
      "end": 1300.24,
      "text": "新的模型再加上新的機器",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 924,
      "start": 1300.24,
      "end": 1301.106,
      "text": "才能熱賣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 925,
      "start": 1301.106,
      "end": 1302.34,
      "text": "但是現在大家都想",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 926,
      "start": 1302.4,
      "end": 1304.0,
      "text": "現在你說的第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 927,
      "start": 1304.0,
      "end": 1305.3,
      "text": "機器人 AI機器人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 928,
      "start": 1305.3,
      "end": 1307.166,
      "text": "中國大陸也在做這個事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 929,
      "start": 1307.166,
      "end": 1307.9,
      "text": "另外一個就是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 930,
      "start": 1307.9,
      "end": 1308.666,
      "text": "AI機器人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 931,
      "start": 1308.666,
      "end": 1310.633,
      "text": "能夠造福台灣哪幾個公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 932,
      "start": 1310.633,
      "end": 1311.766,
      "text": "還有一個是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 933,
      "start": 1311.766,
      "end": 1312.9,
      "text": "你的大模型是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 934,
      "start": 1312.9,
      "end": 1314.333,
      "text": "過去你聽到叫生成式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 935,
      "start": 1314.333,
      "end": 1315.1,
      "text": "會畫圖",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 936,
      "start": 1315.1,
      "end": 1316.866,
      "text": "然後助理式 當助理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 937,
      "start": 1316.866,
      "end": 1317.7,
      "text": "現在叫什麼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 938,
      "start": 1317.7,
      "end": 1318.7,
      "text": "自由式 蛙式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 939,
      "start": 1318.7,
      "end": 1319.9,
      "text": "我們現在還不知道什麼式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 940,
      "start": 1319.9,
      "end": 1320.533,
      "text": "所以大家最近",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 941,
      "start": 1320.533,
      "end": 1321.9,
      "text": "可能要注意一下美國",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 942,
      "start": 1321.9,
      "end": 1322.633,
      "text": "它們如果只是靠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 943,
      "start": 1322.633,
      "end": 1324.299,
      "text": "原來的東西繼續賣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 944,
      "start": 1324.299,
      "end": 1325.933,
      "text": "它的成長率不會太高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 945,
      "start": 1325.933,
      "end": 1327.233,
      "text": "估值也不會太高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 946,
      "start": 1327.233,
      "end": 1328.666,
      "text": "但如果它現在有新的議題",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 947,
      "start": 1328.666,
      "end": 1330.799,
      "text": "包含新模型加新機器的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 948,
      "start": 1330.799,
      "end": 1332.2,
      "text": "你對未來才有可期待",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 949,
      "start": 1332.2,
      "end": 1333.0,
      "text": "所以我們台灣這個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 950,
      "start": 1333.0,
      "end": 1334.566,
      "text": "190億美金的外銷金額",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 951,
      "start": 1334.566,
      "end": 1336.933,
      "text": "到時候如果再繼續水漲船高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 952,
      "start": 1336.933,
      "end": 1338.2,
      "text": "應該就要靠第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 953,
      "start": 1338.2,
      "end": 1339.666,
      "text": "還有一個是重電",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 954,
      "start": 1339.666,
      "end": 1341.166,
      "text": "重電也跟它有兩波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 955,
      "start": 1341.166,
      "end": 1341.933,
      "text": "第一波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 956,
      "start": 1341.933,
      "end": 1343.533,
      "text": "華城的總經理他們",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 957,
      "start": 1343.533,
      "end": 1344.033,
      "text": "你就知道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 958,
      "start": 1344.033,
      "end": 1345.633,
      "text": "它們這兩年的股價很高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 959,
      "start": 1345.633,
      "end": 1348.299,
      "text": "是不是AI還沒走 它先走",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 960,
      "start": 1348.299,
      "end": 1348.9,
      "text": "不是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 961,
      "start": 1348.9,
      "end": 1350.5,
      "text": "是AI先走了半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 962,
      "start": 1350.5,
      "end": 1351.9,
      "text": "美國才發現電不夠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 963,
      "start": 1351.9,
      "end": 1352.766,
      "text": "就來跟台灣買了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 964,
      "start": 1352.766,
      "end": 1353.633,
      "text": "一大堆電力設備",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 965,
      "start": 1353.633,
      "end": 1355.633,
      "text": "所以它們第一波落後半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 966,
      "start": 1355.633,
      "end": 1357.466,
      "text": "是AI先好 它再好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 967,
      "start": 1357.466,
      "end": 1359.233,
      "text": "第二波落後三個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 968,
      "start": 1359.233,
      "end": 1361.966,
      "text": "第二波就不是傳統的那些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 969,
      "start": 1362.026,
      "end": 1362.66,
      "text": "後來你就看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 970,
      "start": 1362.66,
      "end": 1364.36,
      "text": "好多台灣做一些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 971,
      "start": 1364.36,
      "end": 1366.093,
      "text": "台達電這些比較",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 972,
      "start": 1366.093,
      "end": 1367.993,
      "text": "不一樣的一些電力設備",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 973,
      "start": 1367.993,
      "end": 1370.093,
      "text": "各種新的電力設備又跑出來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 974,
      "start": 1370.093,
      "end": 1371.36,
      "text": "所以如果有第三波的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 975,
      "start": 1371.36,
      "end": 1372.16,
      "text": "大家就可以發現",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 976,
      "start": 1372.16,
      "end": 1372.993,
      "text": "如果有第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 977,
      "start": 1372.993,
      "end": 1373.993,
      "text": "你再去抓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 978,
      "start": 1373.993,
      "end": 1374.626,
      "text": "重電跟它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 979,
      "start": 1374.626,
      "end": 1376.226,
      "text": "都會有一點點落後期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 980,
      "start": 1376.226,
      "end": 1378.126,
      "text": "但是它的技術層次不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 981,
      "start": 1378.126,
      "end": 1378.826,
      "text": "第一波可能是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 982,
      "start": 1378.826,
      "end": 1380.16,
      "text": "比較傳統的電力設備",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 983,
      "start": 1380.16,
      "end": 1381.292,
      "text": "第二波就是一些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 984,
      "start": 1381.292,
      "end": 1382.693,
      "text": "比較高階的電力設備",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 985,
      "start": 1382.693,
      "end": 1384.093,
      "text": "如果有第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 986,
      "start": 1384.093,
      "end": 1384.926,
      "text": "你再看看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 987,
      "start": 1384.926,
      "end": 1386.393,
      "text": "哪些公司做這些東西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 988,
      "start": 1386.393,
      "end": 1387.393,
      "text": "所以我們今天把AI",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 989,
      "start": 1387.393,
      "end": 1389.393,
      "text": "當然你會提到一些風險",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 990,
      "start": 1389.393,
      "end": 1389.96,
      "text": "或黃仁勳",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 991,
      "start": 1389.96,
      "end": 1391.226,
      "text": "他們需要面對的挑戰",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 992,
      "start": 1391.226,
      "end": 1392.226,
      "text": "但對台灣來說",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 993,
      "start": 1392.226,
      "end": 1393.093,
      "text": "不管你們哪個",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 994,
      "start": 1393.093,
      "end": 1394.792,
      "text": "TPU GPU 什麼晶片",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 995,
      "start": 1394.792,
      "end": 1395.96,
      "text": "你們都來找我做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 996,
      "start": 1395.96,
      "end": 1397.292,
      "text": "另外是你的伺服器",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 997,
      "start": 1397.292,
      "end": 1398.493,
      "text": "過去我們看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 998,
      "start": 1398.493,
      "end": 1400.593,
      "text": "這兩波的高峰都是18個月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 999,
      "start": 1400.593,
      "end": 1404.926,
      "text": "10個月上坡 6個月下來",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1000,
      "start": 1404.926,
      "end": 1406.86,
      "text": "最近你看到我們的外銷出口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1001,
      "start": 1406.86,
      "end": 1408.76,
      "text": "就在休息的那段時間",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1002,
      "start": 1408.76,
      "end": 1410.126,
      "text": "所以我們正在期待",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1003,
      "start": 1410.126,
      "end": 1412.06,
      "text": "下半年或第四季",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1004,
      "start": 1412.06,
      "end": 1413.86,
      "text": "有沒有什麼新的爆發性題材",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1005,
      "start": 1413.86,
      "end": 1414.726,
      "text": "如果有的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1006,
      "start": 1414.726,
      "end": 1416.46,
      "text": "AI榮景才能持續",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1007,
      "start": 1416.46,
      "end": 1417.426,
      "text": "但是反之",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1008,
      "start": 1417.426,
      "end": 1419.16,
      "text": "如果沒有這一波第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1009,
      "start": 1419.16,
      "end": 1420.093,
      "text": "或者第三波",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1010,
      "start": 1420.093,
      "end": 1423.393,
      "text": "都沒有什麼亮點利多的話",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1011,
      "start": 1423.453,
      "end": 1425.086,
      "text": "可能我們現在這個榮景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1012,
      "start": 1425.086,
      "end": 1426.12,
      "text": "就要打個折扣了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1013,
      "start": 1426.12,
      "end": 1427.386,
      "text": "就不要那麼樂觀了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1014,
      "start": 1427.386,
      "end": 1428.42,
      "text": "所以我們現在看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1015,
      "start": 1428.42,
      "end": 1429.286,
      "text": "從美債出發",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    }
  ]
}