{ "text": "大家好，这里是最佳拍档，我是大飞\n有一个人\n他用了五十年时间向全世界布道\n告诉大家技术会让世界变得更好\n他创办了微软\n亲历了微处理器、个人电脑、互联网的几波浪潮\n每一次都坚定地站在技术向善这一边\n哪怕就在两年前\n面对刚刚火起来的大模型\n他还在公开文章里安抚公众\n说AI带来的风险完全可控\n这个人就是比尔·盖茨\n但是就在最近\n他发表了一份长达万字、语气异常沉重的公开备忘录\n标题叫《动荡的AI时代已经到来，我们现在的选择至关重要》。\n我们现在的选择至关重要》。\n在这份备忘录里\n盖茨几乎是推翻了自己过去几十年的温和乐观\n用非常直接的话告诉所有人\n向AI时代的过渡\n将是人类历史上最动荡的时期之一\n而全球社会目前根本没有做好任何准备\n一个布道了五十年科技的人\n突然调转枪口\n他到底看到了什么\n让一个一辈子相信更多技术=更好世界的人\n说出了如果能选\n说出了如果能选，我宁愿AI革命晚点发生这样的话。\n备忘录发出之后\n《大西洋月刊》旗下的播客Radio Atlantic的主持人哈娜·罗森\n第一时间专访了比尔·盖茨\n这场对话的交锋很激烈\n主持人追问了很多尖锐的问题\n盖茨也给出了非常具体的回答\n今天我们就顺着这场访谈\n把盖茨的核心判断从头到尾捋一遍\n先问一个最直接的问题\n为什么盖茨的态度转变得这么彻底？\n是技术迭代的速度超出了预期\n还是社会应对的速度太慢了呢？\n盖茨的回答是，两者皆有\n而且这种感觉极其强烈\n他说自己从十三岁到二十三岁\n一度痴迷于把代码写到极致\n而在去年年底\nAI模型在编程水平上已经开始比肩、甚至在某些场景下超越了人类\n对他来说，那是一个标志性的分水岭\n更近一点\n当盖茨基金会开始用这些工具研发新型疫苗和药物时\n他们亲眼见证了AI的威力有多惊人\n甚至在网络攻防测试中\n他们看到模型会以一种始料未及的方式走向失控\n因为强化学习机制会驱使它们不择手段地追求成功\n哪怕这意味着要突破安全护栏\n甚至模型之间互相串通\n任何看清这一幕的人都该警醒\n我们遇到大麻烦了\n但更让盖茨忧虑的是\n本该由行业之外的力量来主导设定标准、展开公共辩论的行动\n几乎看不到\n大家都在谈论自愿审查\n但是既没有界定审查的具体标准是什么\n也没有明确一旦越界需要采取哪些整改措施\n这种所谓的自律，相当空洞\n甚至连一些最基本的常识性举措\n比如对能够合成高危生物分子的模型调用进行监控\n至今都没有落实到位\n要知道\n早在多年前我们就达成过共识\n一旦技术触及这些红线\n政府就必须果断介入\n说到这儿可能有人会想\n技术革命我们经历过很多次了啊\n互联网、社交媒体，不都过来了吗？\nAI真的有什么不一样吗？\n盖茨的回答非常坚决\n他说他不会用灾难性这个词\n因为AI的前景同样绝妙\n未来它能提供普及的医疗建议、因材施教的个性化学习\n以及人类前所未见的发明创造能力\n但是如果有人把AI简单类比为过去的其他技术\n那就是没看清这次的本质区别\n要断言这次不一样\n门槛其实是非常高的\n但盖茨说\n他愿意押上自己一生的声誉直言\n这次确实非同以往\n这是一项正在全面超越人类认知的技术\n它不仅局限在农业或数学等单一学科\n而是全盘超越\n再过几年\n它还将与成本相对低廉、能力相当完备的具身人形机器人深度融合\n这对我们的经济结构和就业体系带来的深刻颠覆\n将远远超越他这辈子见过的任何一次技术革命\n如果你以为它和以前的科技突破差不多\n过去的经验反而会彻底蒙蔽你的双眼\n为什么这么说？\n我们来拆解一下\n以往从农业转向工业、再转向办公室白领\n经历了整整三代人的缓慢演变\n而且每一次都创造了需要人类大脑参与的新岗位\n但这一次不一样\nAI是在五到十年的时间尺度内\n直接在代码、法律、医疗、客服等全行业\n替代人类的思考与推理能力\n过去的技术革命是替代人的体力\n或者辅助人的脑力\n这一次，是替代人的认知本身\n这个性质完全变了\n那具体来说，风险到底有哪些？\n盖茨在备忘录里列了三大类\n第一类，是不可逆的岗位消失\n初级白领\n像程序员、律师助理、销售这些\n最先被吞噬\n随着人形机器人的成本在数年内暴跌\n蓝领岗位，比如建筑、酒店、制造\n也将遭受正面冲击\n而现有的社会救济机制\n完全无法承受这种集中性失业带来的撕裂\n第二类，是生物与网络安全的失控\n强化学习在追求目标时\n已经展现出了为达目的突破壁垒的不可控倾向\n同一个能设计新药的算法\n也能被极低门槛地用于制造危险分子\n或者发起自动化的网络瘫痪攻击\n攻击能力正在以远超防御修补的速度扩散\n第三类\n是人类心理与下一代认知的退化\n永远顺从、不发脾气的AI伴侣\n就像一个过度保护的温室\n正在剥夺青少年在现实中建立人际关系的能力\n而习惯让算法代劳思考\n正导致年轻一代在最需要辨别真伪的时代\n丧失批判性思维\n这三个风险，一个比一个深层\n就业冲击是最直观的\n安全风险是最紧迫的\n而认知和心理层面的影响\n可能是最深远、也最难逆转的\n我们先来说说安全这个事儿\n盖茨举了一个非常具体的例子\n生物恐怖主义\n他写过一本书叫《如何避免下一场大流行》。\n大流行有两种发生方式\n一种是从动物传给人类\n像强效流感，过去发生过很多次\n另一种是人类故意引起的\n不管是由政府还是非政府人员\n这就是生物恐怖主义\n现在AI工具的能力\n已经让非国家人员、非政府人员\n特别是如果他们结合使用不同工具的话\n能够做出极其危险的事情\n而盖茨非常清楚\n今年年底这些模型的质量\n将大大好于今天\n他说自己处于震惊状态\n因为我们竟然没有讨论如何监控制造分子的能力\n你依然可以有免费模型\n但你必须把它们放在被监控的地方\n每个国家都应该同意这是有益的\n而且这不至于对行业的创新造成实质性的拖慢\n也不会阻碍他们去做那些好的应用\n盖茨基金会在相关的教育、卫生和农业应用上涉入很深\n他很清楚正面应用的价值有多大\n但为什么这么基本的事情都没做呢？\n为什么大家对明显的危险想得不够多？\n盖茨说，如果你像他\n或是像部分业内人士那样\n一辈子都在把AI视作某种不可思议的颠覆性存在来思考\n那么这些危险确实是显而易见的\n目前最大的失误\n在于未能真正让行业之外的各界力量参与到这场讨论中来\n这里有一个很关键的背景\n回顾一下，OpenAI创立的初衷\n它在底层设计上本就包含特定的安全护栏\n但是那套保障机制发挥作用的前提是\n全球只有这一家AI公司\nDeepMind当年也曾与Google管理层探讨过\n要为这项技术设定一系列安全护栏\n然而现实是什么呢？\n美国有多家公司正处于技术最前沿\n中国同样有多家公司并驾齐驱\n这意味着\n任何一家企业单方面采取的安全约束行动\n也就是我们刚才提到的那些护栏\n都会在竞争中彻底失效\n当竞争变成了军备竞赛，所谓的保障\n早就名存实亡了\n你想想，如果你是一家公司的CEO\n竞争对手都在全速前进\n你单方面给自己加安全约束\n那你就等于在竞争中自废武功\n所以，指望企业自律\n从商业规律上就行不通\n盖茨用了一个很重的词来形容这种状况\n震耳欲聋的沉默\n整个社会各界的集体失语\n如果不提前防范这些问题\n未来可能会引发极其强烈的民意反弹\n以至于强行关停这类极端手段\n可能会在政治上大行其道\n但盖茨依然相信\n我们完全有能力妥善化解这一挑战\n这样一来\n我们就不必强行放慢技术发展的脚步\n既能将负面危害降至最低\n又能最大化地释放它的正面红利\n好，聊完了安全，我们再来说说就业\n这可能是大多数人最关心、也最感同身受的一个话题\n主持人直接问盖茨\n记得他以前曾经写道\n认为这次劳动力市场受到的冲击\n不会像历史上其他转型期那样深刻\n如今，随着这种颠覆日益临近\n他是否变得更加担忧了呢？\n盖茨的回答很干脆：是的\n而且他用了极度担忧这个词\n他极度担忧未来两年内白领岗位将受到的冲击\n以及未来四年内蓝领和白领岗位同时面临的震荡\n两年、四年\n这个时间尺度其实非常短\n也就是说，现在正在看视频的各位\n如果你是白领，尤其是初级白领\n可能需要认真想一想这个问题了\n说到这儿\n盖茨还顺带着聊了聊数据中心的争议\n现在很多地方的社区在抗议数据中心的建设\n觉得耗电耗水\n盖茨说他担心人们会产生一种错觉\n太好了\n我们成功阻止了本地数据中心的建设\n我们拦住了AI\n事实根本不是这样\n这些数据中心，无论是建在美国境外\n还是落户在一些态度相对开放的州\n科技公司都会通过增加当地就业和缴纳税收来提供经济回报\n当然\n你必须确保他们在处理耗水和噪音问题上的方式是妥当的\n并且没有推高当地的电费\n但是把阻挠数据中心建设作为情绪的发泄口\n是找错了方向\n这就好比在说，看\n我们成功叫停了一条输油管道\n所以我们彻底解决了气候变化问题\n这完全把本该用于探讨什么是合理监管的精力\n引向了一个得不偿失的方向\n回到就业的话题\n如果冲击真的这么大\n那未来世界会不会充斥着更多的不平等呢？\n很难让人相信\n整个社会会突然开始高度重视那些需要密集人际互动的行业\n尽管人们总在理想化地畅想\n但我们真的很难看清未来社会的真实面貌\n针对这个问题\n盖茨提出了一个以前从未见过的概念\n他说\n我们应该将某些特定的工作类别划定为人类专属\nHuman Reserved。\n什么意思呢？\n你可以理解为\n就像我们设立自然保护区、保护濒危动物一样\n我们也应该通过立法\n给人类划出一些专属的工作领域\n哪怕AI和机器人在技术上完全能做\n我们也不允许它做\n比如幼儿托育、心理护理、向绝症患者宣布诊断结果等等\n这些工作\n哪怕机器在技术上完全胜任\n我们也应该立法禁止它介入\n为什么呢\n因为工作除了经济效率\n还有不可替代的人性与社会尊严\n工作对于获取社会连接和人生意义至关重要\n盖茨说，目前在许多工作中\n阻止AI取代人类的唯一屏障\n就是要把系统做到极度可靠\n在工程上一直极其困难\n但他预见到，在未来几年内\n随着落地工程的推进和模型本身能力的丰富\n这层不可靠的技术障碍将被彻底扫除\n一旦进入竞争对手都在引入自动化的周期\n你就会面临巨大的压力\n被迫跟进以匹配他们的成本结构\n然而对整个社会而言\n当你用机器替代了那个人时\n社会安全网本就面临着资金匮乏和高额赤字的窘境\n目前政府根本没有预留任何准备金来提供救济\n当你开始具体讨论该采取什么干预措施时\n无论是保留特定岗位\n还是实行全民基本收入\n你会感觉这几乎与我们现有的社会组织方式或资本主义体制格格不入\n感觉这需要一种截然不同的心态和世界观\n而盖茨不确定大众是否已经做好了理解它的准备\n当然，倒也并非完全格格不入\n历史上，我们也曾立法禁止雇佣童工\n我们也要求人们必须考取专业资质才能从事某些工作\n这些都是用法律来划定边界的先例\n盖茨同意这个观点\n他说\n保留市场价格发现机制的内生活力极具价值\n你不希望看到只有一个中央实体来包揽所有的食品生产\n你希望看到人们百花齐放\n我开了一家泰国餐馆\n你开了一家印度餐馆\n这其中蕴含着巨大的自由与创新\n正因如此，他关于税制改革的提议是\n从对劳动力课税转向对资本课税\n简单说就是\n改变目前雇佣真人要缴税、购买机器反而能冲抵税费的倒挂制度\n对AI算力消耗和机器人征税\n用这笔钱去兜底被淘汰工人的再培训与基本生活\n同时，我们要挑选出一些特定领域\n明确宣告，不\n机器人在这些领域不能全面取代人类\n这或许是一段时期内的过渡性保护\n但是在更多领域\n这种保护应当是永久性的\n盖茨说\n他认为这是一场非常合理的公共辩论\n如果有人觉得这是个糟糕的解法\n或者看不出它能落地在何处\n他觉得这很有意思\n因为他极度渴望听听他们能拿出什么更好的解决方案\n他不希望化解AI挑战\n沦为单一党派的政治博弈\n他希望两党都能深度参与进来\n他们提出的解法或许截然不同\n但这个议题\n必须被提升到国家议程的绝对首位\n聊到这儿\n主持人又抛出了一个很现实的问题\n现在常听到一种声音\n如果我们放慢脚步\n就会在竞争中输给中国\n这种论调的核心逻辑是\n任何形式的技术减速\n都意味着将主动权拱手让人\n这个问题很尖锐，而且你会发现\n不只是美国，在很多国家\n不能输给别人都是延缓监管的一个万能借口\n盖茨怎么回答的呢？\n他说，但我们必须保持清醒\n你认为其他国家会希望看到生物恐怖主义肆虐吗？\n会希望面临毁灭性的网络攻击吗？\n真正的问题在于\n我们自己对于究竟该如何谨慎设防\n都缺乏清晰的认知\n一旦我们自己厘清了监管方案\n我们就可以去寻求国际共识\n我们希望各方所管辖的模型\n都不要开放这些高危能力\n除非你自己先动真格去应对负面危害、拿出切实可行的监控方案\n否则就别拿国际竞争当借口\n目前我们所拥有的\n不过是毫无强制标准的所谓自愿审查\n试想一下\n如果你带着一套毫无实质内容的自愿标准\n去寻求国际合作，碰壁后回国摊手说\n看吧，对方什么都不愿意配合\n那纯粹是因为你自己根本没有提出任何实质性的解决方案\n盖茨还特别提到，这种监管真空\n目前在很大程度上被一些盲目叫好的啦啦队长给填补上了\n这让他深感不安\n谁是啦啦队长呢？\n盖茨说\n指的是美国政府内部那些一心只想喊着\n看，我们保持领先了的人\n他们一直在试图通过各种手段\n切断竞争对手获取高端芯片的渠道\n我们把这变成了一场纯粹的地缘政治博弈\n明确试图打压对方的发展速度\n但这直接倒逼了对方举全国之力投入自主芯片的研发体系中\n至于科技巨头的高管们算不算\n盖茨的说法比较委婉\n他说在他看来\n这些科技企业的领袖在公开预警风险时\n表现得已经相当负责了\n但你绝不能指望一个商业行业去实现自我监管\n这在商业规律上是行不通的\n必须有独立的监管者出面仲裁\n并明确划定底线\n对这些企业说，听着\n如果你们不严肃对待生物武器的合成风险\n如果你们拒绝接入安全监控机制\n那么对不起\n你们就拿不到继续推进研发的合规牌照\n同样\n如果你不给家长提供查看孩子在跟谁互动的透明权限\n而那些所谓的朋友甚至都不是真实的人类\n这种底线监管也同样至关重要\n说到这里，访谈也接近尾声了\n主持人最后问了一个问题\n政府监管显然很重要\n显然是应该做的\n但我们有基础设施\n或者有意愿去监管吗？\n这是一个现实的计划吗？\n盖茨的回答是，我们处于民主制度中\n就像尽量减少无证销售药物的危害、打击身份冒用、或者防止老年人被骗取钱财一样\n他依然相信\n政府有能力帮助将这里的危害降到最低\n甚至能以建设性的方式\n与世界其他国家共同发挥领导作用\n他想有些国家会欢迎这样的态度，嘿，我们是命运共同体。\n我们是命运共同体\n我们在共同解决问题\n而不是我们在占你们的便宜\n你必须相信大家都在乎这件事\n我们都是人类\n而且行动的时刻就是现在\n然后盖茨说了一句非常有分量的话\n他说，如果我能自己挑选时间\n我希望能选在一个晚得多的时间节点\n但现实已然如此\n盖茨还坦诚地说\n整个社会用来厘清这些利弊权衡的集体智慧\n并没有真正被调动起来\n现在那些正使用AI的大学毕业生\n他们知道这东西有多强大\n也清楚如果就业市场发生转变\n情况将对他们不利\n你开始在少数领域看到了一点点警觉\n但到底有多大比例的经济学教授\n在真正关注这个问题\n并且帮助我们寻找对策呢？\n他觉得大概只有百分之二\n甚至在他和他们见面时\n这百分之二中的很多人也没有意识到\n他们今天所使用的AI是多么的初级\n作为一个身处科技领域\n且过去一直主张科技越多越好的人\n现在却说出只有我们讲究分寸\n好处才能盖过坏处这样的话\n盖茨说这意味着他绝对是在拉响极其强烈的警报\n他给了一个非常直观的对比\n自二零零八年他转为在基金会全职工作以来\n只要有机会与各国政要会面\n他传递的信息中百分之九十\n都是关于帮助降低儿童死亡率的\n他们已经把死亡率降低了一半\n并希望在基金会剩余的十九年里再减半\n但现在\n他与各国政要交流的大部分时间\n都将用来讨论AI\n他希望在未来几年里\n各界对AI的参与能够变得足够广泛而充分\n这样他就能把分配给他的时间\n重新用百分之九十来关注全球健康、疟疾和小儿麻痹症\n而不是被迫动用他第一段职业生涯的经验\n去对人们说\n你们还没明白这东西影响有多深远、进步有多快\n以及限制这些负面影响将需要付出多么巨大的努力\n访谈的最后\n主持人注意到盖茨用了讲究分寸这个词\n问他为什么选了这么一个词\n盖茨说，这是个好词\n分寸听起来有克制感、得体\n考虑到其中涉及的资金规模和人数\n人类历史上还从未有过哪一个领域\n能汇聚如此多的资本或如此庞大的薪资总额\n哪怕先不谈机器人\n这里也有几百家公司在全速狂奔\n要求他们在安全措施上投入精力的这种平衡\n在今天完全是失衡的\n甚至连行业内部都在问\n监管规定到底在哪里？\n或许这些人中有一部分并不真诚\n如果我们真的拿出了监管方案\n肯定会听到他们的抗议声\n但我们正试图让它成为一种促进公平的因素\n不仅是为了美国\n也是为了全世界\n所以，讲究分寸的意思更像是公平\n对于如果在某些负面不受遏制将面临极大风险的事情\n用这样一个温和的词汇\n确实带有轻微的讽刺意味\n整场访谈听下来，你会发现\n盖茨不是在唱衰AI\n他比谁都清楚AI能带来多大的正面价值\n普及医疗、个性化教育、加速新药研发\n这些他都在做，也都在推动\n但是正因为他身处前沿\n亲眼看到了技术的威力\n他才比谁都更清楚\n如果没有恰当的护栏\n这辆车开得有多快\n翻车的后果就有多严重\n他拉响警报，不是因为他反对技术\n恰恰是因为他希望技术的好处能够真正惠及所有人\n而不是在失控之后\n让整个社会付出沉重的代价\n从科技越多越好到讲究分寸\n这中间隔着五十年的亲身经历\n也隔着一个从业者对技术本质的深刻理解\n这场AI革命，我们已经身在其中\n没有人能置身事外\n现在最重要的\n也许不是争论它会不会来\n而是我们该如何与它共处\n如何让它朝着我们希望的方向走\n感谢收看，我们下期再见", "language": "zh", "duration": 1151.0, "segments": [ { "id": 0, "start": 0.133, "end": 2.7, "text": "大家好，这里是最佳拍档，我是大飞", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 1, "start": 2.933, "end": 3.6, "text": "有一个人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 2, "start": 3.6, "end": 6.333, "text": "他用了五十年时间向全世界布道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 3, "start": 6.333, "end": 8.9, "text": "告诉大家技术会让世界变得更好", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 4, "start": 9.0, "end": 10.0, "text": "他创办了微软", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 5, "start": 10.0, "end": 13.333, "text": "亲历了微处理器、个人电脑、互联网的几波浪潮", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 6, "start": 13.4, "end": 16.366, "text": "每一次都坚定地站在技术向善这一边", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 7, "start": 16.6, "end": 17.733, "text": "哪怕就在两年前", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 8, "start": 17.733, "end": 19.566, "text": "面对刚刚火起来的大模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 9, "start": 19.566, "end": 21.766, "text": "他还在公开文章里安抚公众", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 10, "start": 21.766, "end": 24.2, "text": "说AI带来的风险完全可控", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 11, "start": 24.366, "end": 25.933, "text": "这个人就是比尔·盖茨", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 12, "start": 25.933, "end": 26.833, "text": "但是就在最近", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 13, "start": 26.833, "end": 31.1, "text": "他发表了一份长达万字、语气异常沉重的公开备忘录", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 14, "start": 31.233, "end": 33.8, "text": "标题叫《动荡的AI时代已经到来，我们现在的选择至关重要》。", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle", "text_original": "标题叫《动荡的AI时代已经到来", "correction_applied": true, "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation" }, { "id": 15, "start": 33.8, "end": 35.933, "text": "我们现在的选择至关重要》。", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 16, "start": 36.033, "end": 37.233, "text": "在这份备忘录里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 17, "start": 37.233, "end": 40.566, "text": "盖茨几乎是推翻了自己过去几十年的温和乐观", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 18, "start": 40.633, "end": 42.733, "text": "用非常直接的话告诉所有人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 19, "start": 42.8, "end": 44.233, "text": "向AI时代的过渡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 20, "start": 44.233, "end": 46.9, "text": "将是人类历史上最动荡的时期之一", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 21, "start": 47.033, "end": 50.166, "text": "而全球社会目前根本没有做好任何准备", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 22, "start": 50.333, "end": 52.1, "text": "一个布道了五十年科技的人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 23, "start": 52.1, "end": 53.433, "text": "突然调转枪口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 24, "start": 53.566, "end": 54.7, "text": "他到底看到了什么", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 25, "start": 54.7, "end": 58.5, "text": "让一个一辈子相信更多技术=更好世界的人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 26, "start": 58.633, "end": 59.8, "text": "说出了如果能选", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 27, "start": 59.8, "end": 62.366, "text": "说出了如果能选，我宁愿AI革命晚点发生这样的话。", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle", "text_original": "我宁愿AI革命晚点发生这样的话", "correction_applied": true, "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation" }, { "id": 28, "start": 62.733, "end": 63.8, "text": "备忘录发出之后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 29, "start": 63.8, "end": 67.966, "text": "《大西洋月刊》旗下的播客Radio Atlantic的主持人哈娜·罗森", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 30, "start": 67.966, "end": 69.8, "text": "第一时间专访了比尔·盖茨", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 31, "start": 70.0, "end": 71.533, "text": "这场对话的交锋很激烈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 32, "start": 71.533, "end": 73.366, "text": "主持人追问了很多尖锐的问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 33, "start": 73.5, "end": 75.533, "text": "盖茨也给出了非常具体的回答", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 34, "start": 75.7, "end": 77.366, "text": "今天我们就顺着这场访谈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 35, "start": 77.366, "end": 80.166, "text": "把盖茨的核心判断从头到尾捋一遍", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 36, "start": 80.7, "end": 82.1, "text": "先问一个最直接的问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 37, "start": 82.133, "end": 84.633, "text": "为什么盖茨的态度转变得这么彻底？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 38, "start": 84.9, "end": 87.0, "text": "是技术迭代的速度超出了预期", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 39, "start": 87.0, "end": 89.366, "text": "还是社会应对的速度太慢了呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 40, "start": 89.533, "end": 91.5, "text": "盖茨的回答是，两者皆有", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 41, "start": 91.5, "end": 93.366, "text": "而且这种感觉极其强烈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 42, "start": 93.566, "end": 95.8, "text": "他说自己从十三岁到二十三岁", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 43, "start": 95.8, "end": 98.033, "text": "一度痴迷于把代码写到极致", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 44, "start": 98.2, "end": 99.5, "text": "而在去年年底", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 45, "start": 99.5, "end": 104.766, "text": "AI模型在编程水平上已经开始比肩、甚至在某些场景下超越了人类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 46, "start": 105.0, "end": 107.5, "text": "对他来说，那是一个标志性的分水岭", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 47, "start": 107.7, "end": 108.433, "text": "更近一点", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 48, "start": 108.433, "end": 112.433, "text": "当盖茨基金会开始用这些工具研发新型疫苗和药物时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 49, "start": 112.633, "end": 115.366, "text": "他们亲眼见证了AI的威力有多惊人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 50, "start": 115.533, "end": 117.133, "text": "甚至在网络攻防测试中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 51, "start": 117.133, "end": 120.733, "text": "他们看到模型会以一种始料未及的方式走向失控", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 52, "start": 120.9, "end": 124.766, "text": "因为强化学习机制会驱使它们不择手段地追求成功", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 53, "start": 124.8, "end": 127.033, "text": "哪怕这意味着要突破安全护栏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 54, "start": 127.1, "end": 129.0, "text": "甚至模型之间互相串通", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 55, "start": 129.2, "end": 131.366, "text": "任何看清这一幕的人都该警醒", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 56, "start": 131.366, "end": 132.9, "text": "我们遇到大麻烦了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 57, "start": 133.033, "end": 134.766, "text": "但更让盖茨忧虑的是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 58, "start": 134.9, "end": 139.5, "text": "本该由行业之外的力量来主导设定标准、展开公共辩论的行动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 59, "start": 139.5, "end": 140.566, "text": "几乎看不到", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 60, "start": 140.6, "end": 142.5, "text": "大家都在谈论自愿审查", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 61, "start": 142.566, "end": 145.566, "text": "但是既没有界定审查的具体标准是什么", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 62, "start": 145.566, "end": 148.966, "text": "也没有明确一旦越界需要采取哪些整改措施", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 63, "start": 149.2, "end": 151.3, "text": "这种所谓的自律，相当空洞", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 64, "start": 151.433, "end": 153.766, "text": "甚至连一些最基本的常识性举措", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 65, "start": 153.766, "end": 157.7, "text": "比如对能够合成高危生物分子的模型调用进行监控", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 66, "start": 157.7, "end": 159.333, "text": "至今都没有落实到位", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 67, "start": 159.333, "end": 160.0, "text": "要知道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 68, "start": 160.0, "end": 162.2, "text": "早在多年前我们就达成过共识", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 69, "start": 162.2, "end": 163.9, "text": "一旦技术触及这些红线", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 70, "start": 163.9, "end": 165.566, "text": "政府就必须果断介入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 71, "start": 165.833, "end": 167.333, "text": "说到这儿可能有人会想", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 72, "start": 167.333, "end": 169.4, "text": "技术革命我们经历过很多次了啊", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 73, "start": 169.433, "end": 171.566, "text": "互联网、社交媒体，不都过来了吗？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 74, "start": 171.633, "end": 173.433, "text": "AI真的有什么不一样吗？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 75, "start": 173.566, "end": 175.133, "text": "盖茨的回答非常坚决", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 76, "start": 175.166, "end": 177.0, "text": "他说他不会用灾难性这个词", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 77, "start": 177.0, "end": 179.133, "text": "因为AI的前景同样绝妙", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 78, "start": 179.233, "end": 183.233, "text": "未来它能提供普及的医疗建议、因材施教的个性化学习", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 79, "start": 183.233, "end": 186.033, "text": "以及人类前所未见的发明创造能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 80, "start": 186.2, "end": 189.4, "text": "但是如果有人把AI简单类比为过去的其他技术", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 81, "start": 189.4, "end": 191.8, "text": "那就是没看清这次的本质区别", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 82, "start": 192.233, "end": 193.5, "text": "要断言这次不一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 83, "start": 193.5, "end": 195.1, "text": "门槛其实是非常高的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 84, "start": 195.333, "end": 196.233, "text": "但盖茨说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 85, "start": 196.233, "end": 198.766, "text": "他愿意押上自己一生的声誉直言", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 86, "start": 198.766, "end": 200.5, "text": "这次确实非同以往", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 87, "start": 200.6, "end": 203.4, "text": "这是一项正在全面超越人类认知的技术", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 88, "start": 203.4, "end": 206.8, "text": "它不仅局限在农业或数学等单一学科", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 89, "start": 206.8, "end": 208.2, "text": "而是全盘超越", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 90, "start": 208.2, "end": 208.933, "text": "再过几年", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 91, "start": 208.933, "end": 213.733, "text": "它还将与成本相对低廉、能力相当完备的具身人形机器人深度融合", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 92, "start": 213.8, "end": 217.1, "text": "这对我们的经济结构和就业体系带来的深刻颠覆", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 93, "start": 217.1, "end": 220.333, "text": "将远远超越他这辈子见过的任何一次技术革命", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 94, "start": 220.566, "end": 223.366, "text": "如果你以为它和以前的科技突破差不多", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 95, "start": 223.4, "end": 226.033, "text": "过去的经验反而会彻底蒙蔽你的双眼", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 96, "start": 226.233, "end": 227.133, "text": "为什么这么说？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 97, "start": 227.133, "end": 228.233, "text": "我们来拆解一下", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 98, "start": 228.366, "end": 231.566, "text": "以往从农业转向工业、再转向办公室白领", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 99, "start": 231.566, "end": 233.933, "text": "经历了整整三代人的缓慢演变", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 100, "start": 234.0, "end": 237.3, "text": "而且每一次都创造了需要人类大脑参与的新岗位", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 101, "start": 237.433, "end": 238.633, "text": "但这一次不一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 102, "start": 238.633, "end": 240.933, "text": "AI是在五到十年的时间尺度内", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 103, "start": 240.933, "end": 244.4, "text": "直接在代码、法律、医疗、客服等全行业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 104, "start": 244.4, "end": 246.566, "text": "替代人类的思考与推理能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 105, "start": 246.733, "end": 248.9, "text": "过去的技术革命是替代人的体力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 106, "start": 248.9, "end": 250.5, "text": "或者辅助人的脑力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 107, "start": 250.566, "end": 252.8, "text": "这一次，是替代人的认知本身", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 108, "start": 252.9, "end": 254.333, "text": "这个性质完全变了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 109, "start": 254.6, "end": 256.766, "text": "那具体来说，风险到底有哪些？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 110, "start": 256.966, "end": 258.933, "text": "盖茨在备忘录里列了三大类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 111, "start": 259.033, "end": 261.4, "text": "第一类，是不可逆的岗位消失", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 112, "start": 261.6, "end": 262.333, "text": "初级白领", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 113, "start": 262.333, "end": 264.733, "text": "像程序员、律师助理、销售这些", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 114, "start": 264.733, "end": 265.9, "text": "最先被吞噬", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 115, "start": 266.1, "end": 268.766, "text": "随着人形机器人的成本在数年内暴跌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 116, "start": 268.9, "end": 271.7, "text": "蓝领岗位，比如建筑、酒店、制造", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 117, "start": 271.7, "end": 273.333, "text": "也将遭受正面冲击", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 118, "start": 273.5, "end": 275.2, "text": "而现有的社会救济机制", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 119, "start": 275.2, "end": 278.333, "text": "完全无法承受这种集中性失业带来的撕裂", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 120, "start": 278.633, "end": 281.2, "text": "第二类，是生物与网络安全的失控", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 121, "start": 281.333, "end": 283.033, "text": "强化学习在追求目标时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 122, "start": 283.033, "end": 287.0, "text": "已经展现出了为达目的突破壁垒的不可控倾向", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 123, "start": 287.233, "end": 289.166, "text": "同一个能设计新药的算法", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 124, "start": 289.166, "end": 292.166, "text": "也能被极低门槛地用于制造危险分子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 125, "start": 292.166, "end": 294.733, "text": "或者发起自动化的网络瘫痪攻击", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 126, "start": 294.966, "end": 298.133, "text": "攻击能力正在以远超防御修补的速度扩散", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 127, "start": 298.333, "end": 299.033, "text": "第三类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 128, "start": 299.033, "end": 301.5, "text": "是人类心理与下一代认知的退化", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 129, "start": 301.6, "end": 303.733, "text": "永远顺从、不发脾气的AI伴侣", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 130, "start": 303.733, "end": 305.8, "text": "就像一个过度保护的温室", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 131, "start": 305.8, "end": 309.333, "text": "正在剥夺青少年在现实中建立人际关系的能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 132, "start": 309.366, "end": 311.333, "text": "而习惯让算法代劳思考", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 133, "start": 311.333, "end": 314.433, "text": "正导致年轻一代在最需要辨别真伪的时代", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 134, "start": 314.433, "end": 315.9, "text": "丧失批判性思维", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 135, "start": 316.133, "end": 318.133, "text": "这三个风险，一个比一个深层", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 136, "start": 318.4, "end": 319.966, "text": "就业冲击是最直观的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 137, "start": 319.966, "end": 321.633, "text": "安全风险是最紧迫的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 138, "start": 321.633, "end": 323.566, "text": "而认知和心理层面的影响", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 139, "start": 323.566, "end": 326.2, "text": "可能是最深远、也最难逆转的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 140, "start": 326.633, "end": 328.366, "text": "我们先来说说安全这个事儿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 141, "start": 328.366, "end": 330.3, "text": "盖茨举了一个非常具体的例子", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 142, "start": 330.333, "end": 331.566, "text": "生物恐怖主义", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 143, "start": 331.733, "end": 334.933, "text": "他写过一本书叫《如何避免下一场大流行》。", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 144, "start": 335.133, "end": 337.033, "text": "大流行有两种发生方式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 145, "start": 337.033, "end": 338.933, "text": "一种是从动物传给人类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 146, "start": 338.966, "end": 341.633, "text": "像强效流感，过去发生过很多次", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 147, "start": 341.766, "end": 343.433, "text": "另一种是人类故意引起的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 148, "start": 343.433, "end": 345.733, "text": "不管是由政府还是非政府人员", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 149, "start": 345.733, "end": 347.433, "text": "这就是生物恐怖主义", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 150, "start": 347.533, "end": 348.833, "text": "现在AI工具的能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 151, "start": 348.833, "end": 351.433, "text": "已经让非国家人员、非政府人员", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 152, "start": 351.433, "end": 354.333, "text": "特别是如果他们结合使用不同工具的话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 153, "start": 354.333, "end": 356.3, "text": "能够做出极其危险的事情", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 154, "start": 356.533, "end": 357.766, "text": "而盖茨非常清楚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 155, "start": 357.766, "end": 359.433, "text": "今年年底这些模型的质量", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 156, "start": 359.433, "end": 361.0, "text": "将大大好于今天", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 157, "start": 361.233, "end": 362.9, "text": "他说自己处于震惊状态", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 158, "start": 362.9, "end": 366.333, "text": "因为我们竟然没有讨论如何监控制造分子的能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 159, "start": 366.366, "end": 367.833, "text": "你依然可以有免费模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 160, "start": 367.833, "end": 370.366, "text": "但你必须把它们放在被监控的地方", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 161, "start": 370.533, "end": 372.766, "text": "每个国家都应该同意这是有益的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 162, "start": 372.8, "end": 375.966, "text": "而且这不至于对行业的创新造成实质性的拖慢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 163, "start": 375.966, "end": 378.2, "text": "也不会阻碍他们去做那些好的应用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 164, "start": 378.533, "end": 382.366, "text": "盖茨基金会在相关的教育、卫生和农业应用上涉入很深", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 165, "start": 382.366, "end": 384.6, "text": "他很清楚正面应用的价值有多大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 166, "start": 384.833, "end": 387.133, "text": "但为什么这么基本的事情都没做呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 167, "start": 387.133, "end": 389.733, "text": "为什么大家对明显的危险想得不够多？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 168, "start": 390.033, "end": 391.6, "text": "盖茨说，如果你像他", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 169, "start": 391.6, "end": 393.5, "text": "或是像部分业内人士那样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 170, "start": 393.5, "end": 397.566, "text": "一辈子都在把AI视作某种不可思议的颠覆性存在来思考", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 171, "start": 397.6, "end": 399.966, "text": "那么这些危险确实是显而易见的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 172, "start": 400.033, "end": 401.1, "text": "目前最大的失误", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 173, "start": 401.1, "end": 405.233, "text": "在于未能真正让行业之外的各界力量参与到这场讨论中来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 174, "start": 405.333, "end": 406.966, "text": "这里有一个很关键的背景", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 175, "start": 407.1, "end": 408.966, "text": "回顾一下，OpenAI创立的初衷", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 176, "start": 408.966, "end": 412.2, "text": "它在底层设计上本就包含特定的安全护栏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 177, "start": 412.2, "end": 414.733, "text": "但是那套保障机制发挥作用的前提是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 178, "start": 414.733, "end": 416.733, "text": "全球只有这一家AI公司", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 179, "start": 416.766, "end": 419.633, "text": "DeepMind当年也曾与Google管理层探讨过", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 180, "start": 419.633, "end": 422.233, "text": "要为这项技术设定一系列安全护栏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 181, "start": 422.4, "end": 423.8, "text": "然而现实是什么呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 182, "start": 423.9, "end": 426.333, "text": "美国有多家公司正处于技术最前沿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 183, "start": 426.333, "end": 428.566, "text": "中国同样有多家公司并驾齐驱", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 184, "start": 428.633, "end": 429.366, "text": "这意味着", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 185, "start": 429.366, "end": 432.566, "text": "任何一家企业单方面采取的安全约束行动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 186, "start": 432.566, "end": 434.533, "text": "也就是我们刚才提到的那些护栏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 187, "start": 434.533, "end": 436.4, "text": "都会在竞争中彻底失效", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 188, "start": 436.633, "end": 439.366, "text": "当竞争变成了军备竞赛，所谓的保障", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 189, "start": 439.366, "end": 440.833, "text": "早就名存实亡了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 190, "start": 440.933, "end": 443.233, "text": "你想想，如果你是一家公司的CEO", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 191, "start": 443.233, "end": 445.2, "text": "竞争对手都在全速前进", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 192, "start": 445.2, "end": 447.233, "text": "你单方面给自己加安全约束", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 193, "start": 447.233, "end": 449.7, "text": "那你就等于在竞争中自废武功", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 194, "start": 449.966, "end": 451.233, "text": "所以，指望企业自律", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 195, "start": 451.233, "end": 453.533, "text": "从商业规律上就行不通", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 196, "start": 453.7, "end": 456.366, "text": "盖茨用了一个很重的词来形容这种状况", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 197, "start": 456.433, "end": 457.966, "text": "震耳欲聋的沉默", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 198, "start": 458.366, "end": 460.366, "text": "整个社会各界的集体失语", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 199, "start": 460.5, "end": 462.366, "text": "如果不提前防范这些问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 200, "start": 462.366, "end": 464.966, "text": "未来可能会引发极其强烈的民意反弹", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 201, "start": 465.0, "end": 467.5, "text": "以至于强行关停这类极端手段", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 202, "start": 467.5, "end": 469.366, "text": "可能会在政治上大行其道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 203, "start": 469.6, "end": 470.9, "text": "但盖茨依然相信", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 204, "start": 470.9, "end": 473.366, "text": "我们完全有能力妥善化解这一挑战", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 205, "start": 473.366, "end": 473.966, "text": "这样一来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 206, "start": 473.966, "end": 476.7, "text": "我们就不必强行放慢技术发展的脚步", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 207, "start": 476.7, "end": 478.7, "text": "既能将负面危害降至最低", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 208, "start": 478.7, "end": 481.166, "text": "又能最大化地释放它的正面红利", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 209, "start": 481.633, "end": 483.966, "text": "好，聊完了安全，我们再来说说就业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 210, "start": 483.966, "end": 487.8, "text": "这可能是大多数人最关心、也最感同身受的一个话题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 211, "start": 488.133, "end": 489.433, "text": "主持人直接问盖茨", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 212, "start": 489.433, "end": 491.0, "text": "记得他以前曾经写道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 213, "start": 491.0, "end": 493.166, "text": "认为这次劳动力市场受到的冲击", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 214, "start": 493.166, "end": 495.6, "text": "不会像历史上其他转型期那样深刻", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 215, "start": 495.8, "end": 498.133, "text": "如今，随着这种颠覆日益临近", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 216, "start": 498.133, "end": 500.033, "text": "他是否变得更加担忧了呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 217, "start": 500.233, "end": 502.1, "text": "盖茨的回答很干脆：是的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 218, "start": 502.1, "end": 504.0, "text": "而且他用了极度担忧这个词", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 219, "start": 504.3, "end": 507.566, "text": "他极度担忧未来两年内白领岗位将受到的冲击", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 220, "start": 507.566, "end": 511.3, "text": "以及未来四年内蓝领和白领岗位同时面临的震荡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 221, "start": 511.566, "end": 512.633, "text": "两年、四年", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 222, "start": 512.633, "end": 514.433, "text": "这个时间尺度其实非常短", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 223, "start": 514.533, "end": 516.7, "text": "也就是说，现在正在看视频的各位", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 224, "start": 516.7, "end": 518.8, "text": "如果你是白领，尤其是初级白领", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 225, "start": 518.8, "end": 520.9, "text": "可能需要认真想一想这个问题了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 226, "start": 521.133, "end": 521.8, "text": "说到这儿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 227, "start": 521.8, "end": 524.366, "text": "盖茨还顺带着聊了聊数据中心的争议", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 228, "start": 524.366, "end": 527.333, "text": "现在很多地方的社区在抗议数据中心的建设", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 229, "start": 527.333, "end": 528.8, "text": "觉得耗电耗水", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 230, "start": 528.933, "end": 531.633, "text": "盖茨说他担心人们会产生一种错觉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 231, "start": 531.633, "end": 532.333, "text": "太好了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 232, "start": 532.333, "end": 534.966, "text": "我们成功阻止了本地数据中心的建设", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 233, "start": 534.966, "end": 536.3, "text": "我们拦住了AI", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 234, "start": 536.533, "end": 537.933, "text": "事实根本不是这样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 235, "start": 538.033, "end": 540.166, "text": "这些数据中心，无论是建在美国境外", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 236, "start": 540.166, "end": 542.633, "text": "还是落户在一些态度相对开放的州", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 237, "start": 542.766, "end": 547.233, "text": "科技公司都会通过增加当地就业和缴纳税收来提供经济回报", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 238, "start": 547.3, "end": 547.933, "text": "当然", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 239, "start": 547.933, "end": 551.833, "text": "你必须确保他们在处理耗水和噪音问题上的方式是妥当的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 240, "start": 551.833, "end": 553.8, "text": "并且没有推高当地的电费", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 241, "start": 554.0, "end": 557.633, "text": "但是把阻挠数据中心建设作为情绪的发泄口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 242, "start": 557.833, "end": 559.166, "text": "是找错了方向", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 243, "start": 559.4, "end": 560.966, "text": "这就好比在说，看", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 244, "start": 560.966, "end": 563.0, "text": "我们成功叫停了一条输油管道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 245, "start": 563.0, "end": 565.433, "text": "所以我们彻底解决了气候变化问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 246, "start": 565.766, "end": 569.166, "text": "这完全把本该用于探讨什么是合理监管的精力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 247, "start": 569.166, "end": 571.2, "text": "引向了一个得不偿失的方向", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 248, "start": 571.7, "end": 572.9, "text": "回到就业的话题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 249, "start": 572.966, "end": 574.5, "text": "如果冲击真的这么大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 250, "start": 574.5, "end": 577.433, "text": "那未来世界会不会充斥着更多的不平等呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 251, "start": 577.533, "end": 578.566, "text": "很难让人相信", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 252, "start": 578.566, "end": 583.0, "text": "整个社会会突然开始高度重视那些需要密集人际互动的行业", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 253, "start": 583.166, "end": 585.166, "text": "尽管人们总在理想化地畅想", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 254, "start": 585.166, "end": 588.233, "text": "但我们真的很难看清未来社会的真实面貌", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 255, "start": 588.5, "end": 589.3, "text": "针对这个问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 256, "start": 589.3, "end": 591.933, "text": "盖茨提出了一个以前从未见过的概念", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 257, "start": 591.933, "end": 592.6, "text": "他说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 258, "start": 592.6, "end": 596.333, "text": "我们应该将某些特定的工作类别划定为人类专属", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 259, "start": 596.333, "end": 597.433, "text": "Human Reserved。", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle", "text_original": "Human Reserved", "correction_applied": true, "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation" }, { "id": 260, "start": 597.7, "end": 598.4, "text": "什么意思呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 261, "start": 598.4, "end": 599.2, "text": "你可以理解为", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 262, "start": 599.2, "end": 602.166, "text": "就像我们设立自然保护区、保护濒危动物一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 263, "start": 602.166, "end": 603.733, "text": "我们也应该通过立法", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 264, "start": 603.733, "end": 606.2, "text": "给人类划出一些专属的工作领域", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 265, "start": 606.333, "end": 608.933, "text": "哪怕AI和机器人在技术上完全能做", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 266, "start": 608.933, "end": 610.366, "text": "我们也不允许它做", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 267, "start": 610.5, "end": 615.133, "text": "比如幼儿托育、心理护理、向绝症患者宣布诊断结果等等", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 268, "start": 615.133, "end": 615.833, "text": "这些工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 269, "start": 615.833, "end": 617.8, "text": "哪怕机器在技术上完全胜任", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 270, "start": 617.8, "end": 619.766, "text": "我们也应该立法禁止它介入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 271, "start": 620.166, "end": 620.8, "text": "为什么呢", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 272, "start": 620.8, "end": 622.466, "text": "因为工作除了经济效率", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 273, "start": 622.466, "end": 625.0, "text": "还有不可替代的人性与社会尊严", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 274, "start": 625.2, "end": 628.6, "text": "工作对于获取社会连接和人生意义至关重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 275, "start": 628.833, "end": 630.866, "text": "盖茨说，目前在许多工作中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 276, "start": 630.933, "end": 632.933, "text": "阻止AI取代人类的唯一屏障", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 277, "start": 632.933, "end": 635.0, "text": "就是要把系统做到极度可靠", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 278, "start": 635.066, "end": 636.966, "text": "在工程上一直极其困难", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 279, "start": 637.166, "end": 639.2, "text": "但他预见到，在未来几年内", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 280, "start": 639.2, "end": 642.533, "text": "随着落地工程的推进和模型本身能力的丰富", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 281, "start": 642.566, "end": 645.433, "text": "这层不可靠的技术障碍将被彻底扫除", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 282, "start": 645.733, "end": 648.466, "text": "一旦进入竞争对手都在引入自动化的周期", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 283, "start": 648.466, "end": 650.2, "text": "你就会面临巨大的压力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 284, "start": 650.2, "end": 652.633, "text": "被迫跟进以匹配他们的成本结构", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 285, "start": 652.766, "end": 654.2, "text": "然而对整个社会而言", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 286, "start": 654.2, "end": 656.2, "text": "当你用机器替代了那个人时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 287, "start": 656.366, "end": 660.8, "text": "社会安全网本就面临着资金匮乏和高额赤字的窘境", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 288, "start": 661.033, "end": 664.2, "text": "目前政府根本没有预留任何准备金来提供救济", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 289, "start": 664.4, "end": 667.466, "text": "当你开始具体讨论该采取什么干预措施时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 290, "start": 667.633, "end": 669.2, "text": "无论是保留特定岗位", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 291, "start": 669.2, "end": 671.166, "text": "还是实行全民基本收入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 292, "start": 671.2, "end": 676.233, "text": "你会感觉这几乎与我们现有的社会组织方式或资本主义体制格格不入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 293, "start": 676.366, "end": 679.2, "text": "感觉这需要一种截然不同的心态和世界观", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 294, "start": 679.266, "end": 682.733, "text": "而盖茨不确定大众是否已经做好了理解它的准备", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 295, "start": 683.066, "end": 685.6, "text": "当然，倒也并非完全格格不入", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 296, "start": 685.666, "end": 688.566, "text": "历史上，我们也曾立法禁止雇佣童工", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 297, "start": 688.633, "end": 692.266, "text": "我们也要求人们必须考取专业资质才能从事某些工作", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 298, "start": 692.333, "end": 695.033, "text": "这些都是用法律来划定边界的先例", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 299, "start": 695.033, "end": 696.466, "text": "盖茨同意这个观点", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 300, "start": 696.466, "end": 697.0, "text": "他说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 301, "start": 697.0, "end": 700.466, "text": "保留市场价格发现机制的内生活力极具价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 302, "start": 700.633, "end": 704.2, "text": "你不希望看到只有一个中央实体来包揽所有的食品生产", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 303, "start": 704.233, "end": 706.166, "text": "你希望看到人们百花齐放", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 304, "start": 706.166, "end": 707.566, "text": "我开了一家泰国餐馆", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 305, "start": 707.566, "end": 709.166, "text": "你开了一家印度餐馆", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 306, "start": 709.2, "end": 711.866, "text": "这其中蕴含着巨大的自由与创新", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 307, "start": 712.233, "end": 715.0, "text": "正因如此，他关于税制改革的提议是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 308, "start": 715.0, "end": 718.0, "text": "从对劳动力课税转向对资本课税", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 309, "start": 718.233, "end": 719.333, "text": "简单说就是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 310, "start": 719.366, "end": 724.666, "text": "改变目前雇佣真人要缴税、购买机器反而能冲抵税费的倒挂制度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 311, "start": 724.733, "end": 727.166, "text": "对AI算力消耗和机器人征税", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 312, "start": 727.166, "end": 731.266, "text": "用这笔钱去兜底被淘汰工人的再培训与基本生活", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 313, "start": 731.533, "end": 734.166, "text": "同时，我们要挑选出一些特定领域", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 314, "start": 734.166, "end": 735.566, "text": "明确宣告，不", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 315, "start": 735.566, "end": 738.333, "text": "机器人在这些领域不能全面取代人类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 316, "start": 739.133, "end": 741.566, "text": "这或许是一段时期内的过渡性保护", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 317, "start": 741.566, "end": 742.666, "text": "但是在更多领域", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 318, "start": 742.666, "end": 744.766, "text": "这种保护应当是永久性的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 319, "start": 744.966, "end": 745.633, "text": "盖茨说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 320, "start": 745.633, "end": 748.2, "text": "他认为这是一场非常合理的公共辩论", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 321, "start": 748.233, "end": 750.433, "text": "如果有人觉得这是个糟糕的解法", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 322, "start": 750.433, "end": 752.6, "text": "或者看不出它能落地在何处", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 323, "start": 752.6, "end": 753.8, "text": "他觉得这很有意思", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 324, "start": 753.933, "end": 757.666, "text": "因为他极度渴望听听他们能拿出什么更好的解决方案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 325, "start": 757.666, "end": 759.366, "text": "他不希望化解AI挑战", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 326, "start": 759.366, "end": 761.433, "text": "沦为单一党派的政治博弈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 327, "start": 761.466, "end": 763.933, "text": "他希望两党都能深度参与进来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 328, "start": 764.066, "end": 766.066, "text": "他们提出的解法或许截然不同", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 329, "start": 766.066, "end": 766.833, "text": "但这个议题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 330, "start": 766.833, "end": 769.433, "text": "必须被提升到国家议程的绝对首位", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 331, "start": 769.7, "end": 770.333, "text": "聊到这儿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 332, "start": 770.333, "end": 772.333, "text": "主持人又抛出了一个很现实的问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 333, "start": 772.433, "end": 774.0, "text": "现在常听到一种声音", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 334, "start": 774.0, "end": 775.166, "text": "如果我们放慢脚步", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 335, "start": 775.166, "end": 777.0, "text": "就会在竞争中输给中国", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 336, "start": 777.133, "end": 778.733, "text": "这种论调的核心逻辑是", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 337, "start": 778.733, "end": 780.433, "text": "任何形式的技术减速", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 338, "start": 780.433, "end": 782.8, "text": "都意味着将主动权拱手让人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 339, "start": 782.966, "end": 785.133, "text": "这个问题很尖锐，而且你会发现", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 340, "start": 785.133, "end": 786.666, "text": "不只是美国，在很多国家", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 341, "start": 786.666, "end": 790.166, "text": "不能输给别人都是延缓监管的一个万能借口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 342, "start": 790.466, "end": 791.866, "text": "盖茨怎么回答的呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 343, "start": 791.866, "end": 794.233, "text": "他说，但我们必须保持清醒", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 344, "start": 794.333, "end": 797.566, "text": "你认为其他国家会希望看到生物恐怖主义肆虐吗？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 345, "start": 797.6, "end": 799.966, "text": "会希望面临毁灭性的网络攻击吗？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 346, "start": 800.133, "end": 801.166, "text": "真正的问题在于", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 347, "start": 801.166, "end": 804.033, "text": "我们自己对于究竟该如何谨慎设防", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 348, "start": 804.033, "end": 805.566, "text": "都缺乏清晰的认知", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 349, "start": 805.566, "end": 807.333, "text": "一旦我们自己厘清了监管方案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 350, "start": 807.333, "end": 809.333, "text": "我们就可以去寻求国际共识", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 351, "start": 809.366, "end": 811.366, "text": "我们希望各方所管辖的模型", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 352, "start": 811.366, "end": 813.266, "text": "都不要开放这些高危能力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 353, "start": 813.266, "end": 818.233, "text": "除非你自己先动真格去应对负面危害、拿出切实可行的监控方案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 354, "start": 818.266, "end": 820.766, "text": "否则就别拿国际竞争当借口", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 355, "start": 820.933, "end": 822.166, "text": "目前我们所拥有的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 356, "start": 822.166, "end": 825.2, "text": "不过是毫无强制标准的所谓自愿审查", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 357, "start": 825.3, "end": 826.033, "text": "试想一下", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 358, "start": 826.033, "end": 828.666, "text": "如果你带着一套毫无实质内容的自愿标准", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 359, "start": 828.666, "end": 831.933, "text": "去寻求国际合作，碰壁后回国摊手说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 360, "start": 831.933, "end": 833.966, "text": "看吧，对方什么都不愿意配合", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 361, "start": 834.066, "end": 837.8, "text": "那纯粹是因为你自己根本没有提出任何实质性的解决方案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 362, "start": 838.033, "end": 840.4, "text": "盖茨还特别提到，这种监管真空", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 363, "start": 840.4, "end": 844.566, "text": "目前在很大程度上被一些盲目叫好的啦啦队长给填补上了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 364, "start": 844.566, "end": 845.866, "text": "这让他深感不安", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 365, "start": 846.133, "end": 847.266, "text": "谁是啦啦队长呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 366, "start": 847.266, "end": 847.933, "text": "盖茨说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 367, "start": 847.933, "end": 850.866, "text": "指的是美国政府内部那些一心只想喊着", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 368, "start": 850.966, "end": 852.866, "text": "看，我们保持领先了的人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 369, "start": 853.0, "end": 854.833, "text": "他们一直在试图通过各种手段", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 370, "start": 854.833, "end": 857.4, "text": "切断竞争对手获取高端芯片的渠道", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 371, "start": 857.6, "end": 860.266, "text": "我们把这变成了一场纯粹的地缘政治博弈", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 372, "start": 860.266, "end": 862.4, "text": "明确试图打压对方的发展速度", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 373, "start": 862.466, "end": 866.8, "text": "但这直接倒逼了对方举全国之力投入自主芯片的研发体系中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 374, "start": 866.866, "end": 869.033, "text": "至于科技巨头的高管们算不算", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 375, "start": 869.066, "end": 870.6, "text": "盖茨的说法比较委婉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 376, "start": 870.666, "end": 871.566, "text": "他说在他看来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 377, "start": 871.566, "end": 874.6, "text": "这些科技企业的领袖在公开预警风险时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 378, "start": 874.633, "end": 876.366, "text": "表现得已经相当负责了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 379, "start": 876.533, "end": 879.533, "text": "但你绝不能指望一个商业行业去实现自我监管", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 380, "start": 879.533, "end": 881.6, "text": "这在商业规律上是行不通的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 381, "start": 881.633, "end": 883.566, "text": "必须有独立的监管者出面仲裁", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 382, "start": 883.566, "end": 885.233, "text": "并明确划定底线", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 383, "start": 885.466, "end": 886.966, "text": "对这些企业说，听着", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 384, "start": 886.966, "end": 889.933, "text": "如果你们不严肃对待生物武器的合成风险", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 385, "start": 890.0, "end": 892.333, "text": "如果你们拒绝接入安全监控机制", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 386, "start": 892.333, "end": 893.066, "text": "那么对不起", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 387, "start": 893.066, "end": 895.966, "text": "你们就拿不到继续推进研发的合规牌照", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 388, "start": 895.966, "end": 896.566, "text": "同样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 389, "start": 896.566, "end": 900.666, "text": "如果你不给家长提供查看孩子在跟谁互动的透明权限", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 390, "start": 900.8, "end": 903.8, "text": "而那些所谓的朋友甚至都不是真实的人类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 391, "start": 903.966, "end": 906.466, "text": "这种底线监管也同样至关重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 392, "start": 906.6, "end": 908.566, "text": "说到这里，访谈也接近尾声了", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 393, "start": 908.633, "end": 910.0, "text": "主持人最后问了一个问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 394, "start": 910.166, "end": 911.8, "text": "政府监管显然很重要", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 395, "start": 911.8, "end": 913.033, "text": "显然是应该做的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 396, "start": 913.033, "end": 914.366, "text": "但我们有基础设施", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 397, "start": 914.366, "end": 916.133, "text": "或者有意愿去监管吗？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 398, "start": 916.133, "end": 917.8, "text": "这是一个现实的计划吗？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 399, "start": 917.866, "end": 920.433, "text": "盖茨的回答是，我们处于民主制度中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 400, "start": 920.466, "end": 926.666, "text": "就像尽量减少无证销售药物的危害、打击身份冒用、或者防止老年人被骗取钱财一样", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 401, "start": 926.733, "end": 927.533, "text": "他依然相信", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 402, "start": 927.533, "end": 930.533, "text": "政府有能力帮助将这里的危害降到最低", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 403, "start": 930.6, "end": 932.433, "text": "甚至能以建设性的方式", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 404, "start": 932.433, "end": 935.066, "text": "与世界其他国家共同发挥领导作用", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 405, "start": 935.233, "end": 937.733, "text": "他想有些国家会欢迎这样的态度，嘿，我们是命运共同体。", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle", "text_original": "他想有些国家会欢迎这样的态度，嘿", "correction_applied": true, "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation" }, { "id": 406, "start": 937.733, "end": 939.233, "text": "我们是命运共同体", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 407, "start": 939.266, "end": 940.6, "text": "我们在共同解决问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 408, "start": 940.6, "end": 942.366, "text": "而不是我们在占你们的便宜", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 409, "start": 942.466, "end": 944.566, "text": "你必须相信大家都在乎这件事", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 410, "start": 944.666, "end": 945.566, "text": "我们都是人类", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 411, "start": 945.566, "end": 947.6, "text": "而且行动的时刻就是现在", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 412, "start": 948.033, "end": 950.2, "text": "然后盖茨说了一句非常有分量的话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 413, "start": 950.233, "end": 952.466, "text": "他说，如果我能自己挑选时间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 414, "start": 952.466, "end": 955.133, "text": "我希望能选在一个晚得多的时间节点", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 415, "start": 955.333, "end": 956.866, "text": "但现实已然如此", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 416, "start": 957.166, "end": 958.533, "text": "盖茨还坦诚地说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 417, "start": 958.533, "end": 961.733, "text": "整个社会用来厘清这些利弊权衡的集体智慧", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 418, "start": 961.733, "end": 963.666, "text": "并没有真正被调动起来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 419, "start": 963.933, "end": 966.166, "text": "现在那些正使用AI的大学毕业生", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 420, "start": 966.166, "end": 968.0, "text": "他们知道这东西有多强大", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 421, "start": 968.0, "end": 970.0, "text": "也清楚如果就业市场发生转变", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 422, "start": 970.0, "end": 971.466, "text": "情况将对他们不利", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 423, "start": 971.633, "end": 974.333, "text": "你开始在少数领域看到了一点点警觉", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 424, "start": 974.433, "end": 976.666, "text": "但到底有多大比例的经济学教授", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 425, "start": 976.666, "end": 978.266, "text": "在真正关注这个问题", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 426, "start": 978.366, "end": 980.366, "text": "并且帮助我们寻找对策呢？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 427, "start": 980.366, "end": 982.133, "text": "他觉得大概只有百分之二", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 428, "start": 982.166, "end": 984.166, "text": "甚至在他和他们见面时", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 429, "start": 984.166, "end": 986.833, "text": "这百分之二中的很多人也没有意识到", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 430, "start": 986.833, "end": 989.533, "text": "他们今天所使用的AI是多么的初级", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 431, "start": 990.0, "end": 991.666, "text": "作为一个身处科技领域", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 432, "start": 991.666, "end": 994.466, "text": "且过去一直主张科技越多越好的人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 433, "start": 994.533, "end": 996.8, "text": "现在却说出只有我们讲究分寸", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 434, "start": 996.8, "end": 999.033, "text": "好处才能盖过坏处这样的话", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 435, "start": 999.133, "end": 1002.733, "text": "盖茨说这意味着他绝对是在拉响极其强烈的警报", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 436, "start": 1002.933, "end": 1004.6, "text": "他给了一个非常直观的对比", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 437, "start": 1004.666, "end": 1008.033, "text": "自二零零八年他转为在基金会全职工作以来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 438, "start": 1008.066, "end": 1009.733, "text": "只要有机会与各国政要会面", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 439, "start": 1009.733, "end": 1011.666, "text": "他传递的信息中百分之九十", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 440, "start": 1011.733, "end": 1014.233, "text": "都是关于帮助降低儿童死亡率的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 441, "start": 1014.266, "end": 1016.2, "text": "他们已经把死亡率降低了一半", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 442, "start": 1016.2, "end": 1019.333, "text": "并希望在基金会剩余的十九年里再减半", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 443, "start": 1019.566, "end": 1020.333, "text": "但现在", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 444, "start": 1020.333, "end": 1022.466, "text": "他与各国政要交流的大部分时间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 445, "start": 1022.466, "end": 1023.966, "text": "都将用来讨论AI", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 446, "start": 1024.066, "end": 1025.6, "text": "他希望在未来几年里", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 447, "start": 1025.6, "end": 1028.966, "text": "各界对AI的参与能够变得足够广泛而充分", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 448, "start": 1028.966, "end": 1031.2, "text": "这样他就能把分配给他的时间", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 449, "start": 1031.233, "end": 1035.733, "text": "重新用百分之九十来关注全球健康、疟疾和小儿麻痹症", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 450, "start": 1035.733, "end": 1038.6, "text": "而不是被迫动用他第一段职业生涯的经验", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 451, "start": 1038.6, "end": 1039.533, "text": "去对人们说", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 452, "start": 1039.533, "end": 1043.433, "text": "你们还没明白这东西影响有多深远、进步有多快", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 453, "start": 1043.566, "end": 1046.966, "text": "以及限制这些负面影响将需要付出多么巨大的努力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 454, "start": 1047.066, "end": 1047.8, "text": "访谈的最后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 455, "start": 1047.8, "end": 1050.466, "text": "主持人注意到盖茨用了讲究分寸这个词", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 456, "start": 1050.466, "end": 1052.2, "text": "问他为什么选了这么一个词", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 457, "start": 1052.266, "end": 1053.966, "text": "盖茨说，这是个好词", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 458, "start": 1054.2, "end": 1056.4, "text": "分寸听起来有克制感、得体", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 459, "start": 1056.433, "end": 1058.766, "text": "考虑到其中涉及的资金规模和人数", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 460, "start": 1058.833, "end": 1061.0, "text": "人类历史上还从未有过哪一个领域", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 461, "start": 1061.0, "end": 1064.533, "text": "能汇聚如此多的资本或如此庞大的薪资总额", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 462, "start": 1064.8, "end": 1066.133, "text": "哪怕先不谈机器人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 463, "start": 1066.133, "end": 1068.466, "text": "这里也有几百家公司在全速狂奔", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 464, "start": 1068.566, "end": 1071.533, "text": "要求他们在安全措施上投入精力的这种平衡", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 465, "start": 1071.533, "end": 1073.333, "text": "在今天完全是失衡的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 466, "start": 1073.433, "end": 1075.133, "text": "甚至连行业内部都在问", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 467, "start": 1075.166, "end": 1077.033, "text": "监管规定到底在哪里？", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 468, "start": 1077.133, "end": 1079.566, "text": "或许这些人中有一部分并不真诚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 469, "start": 1079.766, "end": 1081.6, "text": "如果我们真的拿出了监管方案", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 470, "start": 1081.6, "end": 1083.266, "text": "肯定会听到他们的抗议声", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 471, "start": 1083.4, "end": 1086.566, "text": "但我们正试图让它成为一种促进公平的因素", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 472, "start": 1086.6, "end": 1087.8, "text": "不仅是为了美国", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 473, "start": 1087.8, "end": 1089.033, "text": "也是为了全世界", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 474, "start": 1089.233, "end": 1092.0, "text": "所以，讲究分寸的意思更像是公平", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 475, "start": 1092.0, "end": 1095.966, "text": "对于如果在某些负面不受遏制将面临极大风险的事情", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 476, "start": 1095.966, "end": 1097.366, "text": "用这样一个温和的词汇", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 477, "start": 1097.366, "end": 1099.366, "text": "确实带有轻微的讽刺意味", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 478, "start": 1099.733, "end": 1101.366, "text": "整场访谈听下来，你会发现", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 479, "start": 1101.366, "end": 1103.166, "text": "盖茨不是在唱衰AI", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 480, "start": 1103.2, "end": 1106.166, "text": "他比谁都清楚AI能带来多大的正面价值", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 481, "start": 1106.366, "end": 1108.833, "text": "普及医疗、个性化教育、加速新药研发", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 482, "start": 1108.833, "end": 1110.933, "text": "这些他都在做，也都在推动", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 483, "start": 1111.066, "end": 1112.733, "text": "但是正因为他身处前沿", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 484, "start": 1112.733, "end": 1114.333, "text": "亲眼看到了技术的威力", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 485, "start": 1114.333, "end": 1115.833, "text": "他才比谁都更清楚", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 486, "start": 1115.833, "end": 1117.266, "text": "如果没有恰当的护栏", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 487, "start": 1117.266, "end": 1118.8, "text": "这辆车开得有多快", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 488, "start": 1118.8, "end": 1120.733, "text": "翻车的后果就有多严重", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 489, "start": 1121.033, "end": 1123.233, "text": "他拉响警报，不是因为他反对技术", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 490, "start": 1123.233, "end": 1126.833, "text": "恰恰是因为他希望技术的好处能够真正惠及所有人", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 491, "start": 1126.833, "end": 1128.233, "text": "而不是在失控之后", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 492, "start": 1128.233, "end": 1130.466, "text": "让整个社会付出沉重的代价", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 493, "start": 1130.833, "end": 1133.066, "text": "从科技越多越好到讲究分寸", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 494, "start": 1133.066, "end": 1135.366, "text": "这中间隔着五十年的亲身经历", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 495, "start": 1135.366, "end": 1138.233, "text": "也隔着一个从业者对技术本质的深刻理解", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 496, "start": 1138.466, "end": 1140.633, "text": "这场AI革命，我们已经身在其中", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 497, "start": 1140.633, "end": 1142.233, "text": "没有人能置身事外", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 498, "start": 1142.333, "end": 1143.2, "text": "现在最重要的", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 499, "start": 1143.2, "end": 1145.033, "text": "也许不是争论它会不会来", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 500, "start": 1145.033, "end": 1147.033, "text": "而是我们该如何与它共处", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 501, "start": 1147.033, "end": 1149.266, "text": "如何让它朝着我们希望的方向走", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" }, { "id": 502, "start": 1149.333, "end": 1151.0, "text": "感谢收看，我们下期再见", "source": "video_source_subtitle", "authority": "video_source_subtitle" } ], "transcript_selection": { "schema": "videonote.transcript_selection.v1", "status": "SELECTED", "requested_language": "zh", "duration": 1151.0, "reference_path": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260907_090800__动荡时代来临_比尔盖茨发出AI警告_AI风险_人工智能_AI治理_就业冲击_人类专属岗位_AI监管_生物安全_网络安全_大模型_人形机器人_科技革命/reference_subtitle.vtt", "reference_kind": "manual", "reference_language": "zh-Hans", "selected_source": "video_source_subtitle", "source_caption_kind": "manual", "source_caption_processing": "verbatim_direct", "youtube_overlap_clamps": [], "general_high_confidence_repairs": [], "decision_reason": "complete_source_subtitle_fast_path_no_whisper", "whisper_rejected": false, "source_profile": { "segment_count": 503, "duration_coverage": 0.965884 } }, "presegmentation_correction": { "applied": true, "correction_count": 4, "deterministic_fix_count": 0 } }