{ "text": "NVIDIA這間賣產值的人。他親自出來幫買產值的人找錢。短期來說他是一個很大的利好。因為你需求有了。資金有了。那你擴張的瓶頸也打通了。但是會讓我開始想一個問題。就是說這一輪AI的資本開支。這個金融槓桿是不是有點加的太高了。其實這個議題很大。因為我們要聊的是。債。跟所謂的股權。沒錯。對。這是大家很常忽略掉的。就是說公司可以借錢。然後你是股東。然後我先講我理解的。你一個公司如果要倒的話。\n是先还债再给股东\n对\n这个在最根本上就有很大的\n没错\n就比如说Oracle\n没错\n那可是我们现在都是股东\n所以我才说最后会回到散户身上\n就是我不知道大家有没有注意到这则新闻\n就是这则新闻对我而言是一件很大的事情\n就是今年的6月NVIDIA宣布了一件事情\n就是还要跟Apollo\n然后BlackRock\n还有高盛\n还有KKR\n这几家顶尖的私募\n还有资产管理的巨头合作\n就是他透过一个金融平台\n去杠出5000亿美元的第三方资本\n要去盖AI的运算的基础设施\n5000亿美元是一个很大很大很大的数字\n你要想哦\nNVIDIA这一间公司是一个卖产值的人\n他亲自出来帮买产值的人找钱\n短期来说照理说他是一个很大利好\n因为你需求有了资金有了\n那你扩张的瓶颈也打通了\n但是这一则新闻出来的那一天\n我记得NVIDIA股价是跌了3%\n因为我觉得这个反应会让我开始想一个问题\n就是说这一轮AI的资本开支\n的这个金融杠杆是不是有点加的太高了\n因为同一个季度\nGoogle上市以来的自由现金流\n我刚刚我那次有分析嘛\n就他第一次是转付\n那他付是8.31亿美元\n那过去两年\n五大云端的巨头的资本开始里面\n用借来的钱的支付的比重\n从9%跳到32%\n是差不多快四倍\n对\n所以这几家公司\n他开始在往房地产公司的样子去转\n就是我们这应该讲好几次了\n等于是说他一次要砸下去\n好多年才能回本的资本密集度\n然后再加上半导体那种\n两三年就得换一轮的快速折旧\n他等于是他同时吃下了两边的负担\n他都要吃\n所以市场给他的估值\n还是科技股的估值\n所以我想要做一件事情就是\n我想要把2000年的那些\n.com的剧本\n也不能说剧本\n过往的历史翻出来对照\n比对一下这一次哪里不一样哪里一样\n然后跟应该要看什么关键数据\n好所以我先讲就是相似的部分\n第一个就是Azure它成长是45%\nAWS成长是37%\n是18级来最快\nGoogle Cloud成长是82%\n那其他部分的一些云端基础设施的单机成长是93%\n四家公司的财务长在法说会上面都讲了一句话\n就是现在的需求是远远超过我们可以供给出来的产能\n然后再加上资料中心空置率\n没有运转的地方的部位\n就连续两年只有1%\n新建的产能有92%是在盖好之前就已经先租出去了\n等于是他已经找好买家才盖了\n所以现在其实还不是所谓的投入产出比再恶化的一个状态\n我要先讲我的立场\n我没有看空\n现在\n那2026年的上半年\n没有任何的一家云厂商\n是下修他的资本孩子\n是全部都上修的\n那为什么我要讲\n就是他跟2022\n2000年有像的地方\n其实就是一个\n很类似一个囚徒困境的状态\n因为像的地方\n其实不在于\n现在当下的状态\n比较像是他的决策基础\n就是如果说\n我们现在可以回到2000年\n那时候不是电信商\n会疯狂的扑光线吗\n那网络的流量\n那时候确实也是在爆炸\n所以需求不是假的\n但是你事后看\n就是这些长期预测方向\n其实也是对的\n所以问题出在哪\n问题出在说\n它的建设周期要两到三年\n但是所有人同时\n对同一个需求去下订单\n那我们今天看到的缺货\n其实是三年前的决定造成的\n那你今天下的订单\n三年后才会变成残忍\n所以比较精准的说法是说\n囚头困境不是说\n你明明知道它不划算还加码\n而是明明\n就是明知大家都在加码\n你也不能停\n它比较像是一个军备竞赛的概念\n就是因为你谁先停了\n谁会在残忍到位\n在那一天失去它的产材质格\n所以当初的光纤其实没有盖错\n它只是同一个时间点盖太多\n那其实今天的GPU其实也是一样\n就问题不是说AI没有人用\n而是这个产能\n有可能会在同一年集中上限\n那一样的地方还有第二个\n就是所谓的左脚踩右脚\n2000年它的引擎是所谓的股市\n就是你的网络公司靠你股市募资\n募资来的钱去买通讯设备\n设备商财报比较漂亮\n那股交就开始大涨\n那整个产业的股市也就往上拉\n那网络公司就可以更容易募到\n下一轮的股权融资\n那2026年债的引擎是在债市上面\n就是AI模型巨头签下长期的算力合约\n然后运营厂商拿着这份合约去抵押借钱\n然后把这一笔钱借到之后去盖机房\n那为旅约订单的数字就会变得比较漂亮\n那估值就会撑得住\n信用评级也守得住\n然后就更容易发下一笔债\n那一样的闭环\n就是你一样的每一步步骤\n都是在为下一步步骤准备\n那差别就是差在这个燃料\n一个是股一个是债\n那当年烧的是散户的钱\n这是烧的是债券市场的钱\n那再来看就是\n这个裂缝怎么出现的\n就是这个泡泡\n总会有一个裂缝出现\n先讲一件事情就是\n你用开车来做想象\n第一个就是速度\n速度其实就是你现在跑多快\n对应到公司就是说\n你今年的营收成长有多高\n那另外一个东西叫做加速度\n就是你在踩油门\n还是你把油门放掉了\n对应到公司就是说\n去年成长68\n你今年成长48\n成长其实速度还在\n但是你的加速度在减\n对\n那股价我要讲\n它反映的东西不是速度\n不是加速度\n在微跡分裡面\n這好像叫什麼二階倒數\n這個我可以打斷了\n還是我要翻譯白話文\n翻譯翻譯\n就是以成長來講\n你從60到40的加速度\n你股價還是\n你還是在成長\n你還是在變好\n但你的變好的效率在變差\n那所以你還在好\n但你效率變差\n你的速度變慢\n那就其實對於股價而言\n對市場而言就是一個不好\n好你去想\n假如說你今天這輛\n這輛車還在往前開\n你速度還是正的\n可是你脚从油门上松掉\n你坐在后座的那个人是不是觉得你减速了\n是不是觉得你停\n甚至觉得你停滞了\n对所以市场就是你的那个后座乘客\n就突然往前\n他就这样断着嘛\n对不对\n就会被骂\n对所以就是资本开支砸下去\n最多他只能推动的是速度\n那你推不动加速度这件事情\n所以你今天多盖一座机房\n你收入当然会多一块钱\n但是那是你自己花钱买来的\n不是新的人跑来跟你买\n加速度要持续在网上\n一定是这个内循环系统\n而外面多了一个新的需求进来\n这个系统\n所以今年上半年的加速度\n其实还是往上的原因\n是因为靠AI agent跟coding\n这两块真实的新的需求进来\n所以反过来说\n只要这个加速度开始下滑\n代表新增的收入\n已经对应不上新增的资本开支\n那那个时候要继续盖\n就只剩一条路就是债融资\n我这边可以举几个例子\n第一个是2000年那时候\n还记得思科这间公司\n就是很惨的那一间\n也是光纤网络的\n所以那时候企业采购的CEO\n有出来说一句话就是说\n我们正在回归正常\n那时候思科的订单\n还成长了40%\n就是只是没有以前那么快\n但是还是有成长\n那2006年房价还在涨\n但是次贷违约率有继续往上\n怎么讲\n不是因为那时候房价跌\n是因为它涨得不够快\n所以那些希望说\n三年后房子就可以涨价\n涨完价就可以再融资\n换更低的利率的人\n就突然发现说\n它换不了了\n所以就开始违约了\n其实2026年\n就是今年\nMeta其实也说\n它要出售多余的GPU\n这一则就是新闻\n那时候我们也有讨论到\n那时候Meta其实\n我有分析过\n我覺得它比較像是產能錯配\n所以我暫時先不把它當成是一個很紅燈的訊號\n但是我要先講就是崩盤前的第一個訊號\n不是一個壞消息\n反而是一個沒那麼好的消息\n就是它的加速度開始減緩\n那假如說我今天抓不准\n抓不准它要回頭的時間\n我也抓不准它要回測的空間\n那我要怎麼辦\n就是加速度這個東西很討厭的地方\n就在於說它會演\n就是演一下\n就是假摔\n對\n你以為減速了沒有\n我只是在回油\n會在採一次\n對 回油這個詞很好\n對\n所以就是2000年1月那時候\n納指是連續兩週是下跌\n降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降\n就是先分清楚\n你今天看的东西是什么\n第一个就是假如说你看的是产业\n还是看的是金融\n看产业这件事情就是说\n你看这个生意\n它本身发生的是什么事情\n你货卖不卖得掉\n你才能够不够\n你的价格是涨还是在跌\n你的老板是在说\n我今天GP来不及做\n就是我做不出来\n我供给没办法跟上\n还是说我今天就是一个\n货量回归正常\n对这是看产业\n那看金融比较像是说\n你看借钱给这个\n做生意的人\n他在想什么\n就是他还借得到钱吗\n他利率跟半年前\n是变贵还是变便宜\n那发债有没有人买\n所以一个是看你的生意做的好不好\n一个是看你钱还借不借得到\n那这两个讯号的容错率会差很多\n因为产业讯号有机会会做自我修复\n但金融讯号它会做自我实现\n好听不懂一点问号\n好就是比如说你这一季度的订单\n它表现不好\n那它可能客户它只把订单遞延到下一季\n它可能羁押到下一季而已\n那你价格跌了你供给就会减少\n那你价格可能又会回来\n还有天然的供需的价格的回弹机制\n那你金融信号刚好相反\n就是说市场觉得你有风险\n你的借贷成本就会上升\n你的现金流就真的变差\n你的市场就觉得你真的有风险\n所以他不会自己好回来\n就是这个东西只要一启动\n他就会自己做死这个市场的猜测\n对所以就是我说的\n就是金融信号会变成\n是一个自我实现的状态\n那像2007年的时候\n6月底投资银行\n他包销的杠杆就是突然卖不掉\n光是美国就2500亿美元\n卡在银行手上\n然后就是被迫任列进\n他自己的资产负债表\n所以可以怎么做呢\n就是有四个方式\n第一个就是用决策\n用条件决策\n不要用时间点决策\n就是你不要问说\n就是我什么时候要买\n而是问说\n我看到什么时候\n我减多少\n这个事先写下来\n就比如说你可能看到\n某一条左侧讯号\n减三分之一\n看到两条左侧讯号\n同时出现\n可能减到剩一半\n那右侧讯号\n可能就出现了两次\n你就把它清仓\n就是你自己可以\n设定一个条件\n它的好处在哪\n就是你不需要去预测它\n你只要需要辨识它\n有没有出现就好了\n就是辨识比预测还要再简单嘛\n对所以预测是\n我觉得会发生什么\n辨识是我看到了什么\n它对或不对\n所以你前者你不会有信心\n你后者就是基本上\n你只要肯做文科你一定做到\n对那第二个方式就是分批啊\n就是左右侧用不同的节奏\n因为左侧通常比较多运判性质\n所以你左侧可以允许自己多错一点\n右侧出现\n你就需要谨慎处理\n这差别在这边\n那这边篇幅不够\n我在media里面会讲\n左侧要看什么讯号\n右侧要看什么讯号\n这东西太多了真的\n好然后第三个就是\n就是按照谁靠债融资活着\n去做分类\n不是说谁涨最多来分类\n因为他决定的不是说\n你今天公司跌多超\n是你跌下去之后\n还涨不涨得回来\n因为你好的公司跌五成会涨回来\n你坏的公司跌五成\n他会GG\n那第四个就是\n心态上要先接受\n就我刚有说\n你真的不太可能卖在最高点\n所以你卖早这件事情的成本\n你就要接受它是一个成本\n不是你自己的判断失误\n因为2000年真正跑掉的人\n不是预测对的人\n他是接受自己会踏空\n或者是接受自己会卖肥\n但是还是按照规则卖的人\n再来就是我要讲的事情是\n这种系统性风险\n它的杀伤力\n其实会有很多波\n它不是只有第一波而已\n因为像是Wordcom\n它那时候的这间公司\n它的会计违规\n从1999年就开始出现\n但是它是到2002年才被解发的\n那为什么拖了三年\n是因为你景气好的时候\n你这件事情会被藏起来\n就是2000年之后电信化二业\n就是电信业恶化\n然后我在讲什么\n二业对\n电信业恶化\n对然后资本开始下降\n然后你的获利的压力也开始加大\n所以那些就是违规的部分就越滾越大\n然後就被爆出來\n所以你脫償這整個熊市的東西不是\n通常不是我們說的那個吹哨者\n就是不是那一根最一開始那根針\n其實真正會爆的是後面的連鎖反應\n其實真正會爆的是後面的連鎖反應\n真的不好的時候大家就會放大進來看\n對 該爆就一個月把它做爆了\n對 因為通常會是這樣\n就是你的估值會先跌\n然後你的資本開始會大幅收縮\n然後你的創業的融資可能就會被凍結\n那你的相關企業就會出現現金流惡化\n然後你的更多問題就被翻出來\n然后就会再跌一轮\n这可能是第一波\n这次是第二波\n讲错了\n对\n所以如果说这件事情真的发生了\n就是第一轮跌完不代表就结束了\n就是因为很多历史上长期的熊市\n都是因为他后面还有第二次跟第三次\n我会及出现\n对着还在对着\n股价的部分\n好\n那我们刚前面讲就是相似的地方\n然后后面有不是那么相似的地方\n第一个就是我刚前面有讲的\n就是2000年那时候是股权融资的问题\n那2020年是债券融资\n债权融资的问题\n那股权这个东西是一个可以慢慢等的钱\n那债务是一个你今天时间一到\n你就是要缴的钱\n对就像你买房嘛\n假如说你是全款买房的\n全额付清的\n跟你是贷款买房的\n那你全款买房的人\n你今天房价跌了30%\n你会觉得很痛\n但是不会有人来敲门跟你要钱\n就是你有等待的权利\n那如果说你今天是贷款买房的\n房价跌30%\n银行会来跟你说你要补不缴\n你补不出来房子可能就不是你的\n所以不管你多看好未来10年\n你有的是你要交钱的这件事情的义务\n那借钱给公司的人\n公司通常赚翻了\n他也只拿固定的股息\n所以公司出事有可能会全配\n所以债主这个生物\n是全世界最悲观的一群人\n对不要去挑战还有多悲观\n就是他不会等到你真的出事了之后\n他还跑掉\n他说你看起来还没那么顺畅\n哪里卡卡的时候\n他就会开始出现\n他我觉得我该跑了\n那股票会这件事情会让你觉得痛很久\n那债券会让你痛的很短\n但是你甚至有可能来不及反应\n所以如果说这是真的有泡沫要小跑\n会来得很快\n对 因为这个顺序\n对 这个顺序是相反的\n就是2000年那时候是先杀估值\n那他从3月见顶\n然后到4月是跌破年限\n可是他的真正的起跌点是9月\n所以虽然很惨\n但是你有时间反应\n这次的压力点其实在债市\n因为债务这个东西没有所谓的中间值\n你就只有融资成功或者是不成功\n如果融资成功就看起来什么事情都没有发生\n那如果说你今天债融资失败\n你就是要面对你的资产查封啊\n什么债券价格归零啊\n这种事情发生\n所以这次如果真的要盯的东西\n反而是你要盯那些高收益债的殖利率\n那你如果今天去盯大盘的股價\n會比較晚\n然後再來另外一個不一樣的地方就是\n這一次的狀態比較像是\n你腦袋中過了多少東西\n什麼意思\n你都把電影看完然後叹氣我\n劇情是什麼\n他剛剛已經想過3000多萬種可能\n那是奇異伙是不是\n好啦回來\n這一次是科技的風險加上房地產的槓桿\n好我們說科技工風險\n通常是假如說你在發展一個科技\n你做出來有可能會沒有人要的狀態\n你頭100塊有可能全部都是歸零大水漂的\n但是你成功了\n你可能就是一個爆發性的成長\n然後而且是一個別人可能很難有跨越的一個科技壁壘\n那這種大部分會是\n就是如果成功的話可能會超級賺的東西\n比較適合股權\n就是因為你股東通常就會做好一種心理準備\n就是反正我投進去有可能會賠光的心理準備\n對但是他要的東西是\n你如果成功了我要你那個爆發\n對那房地產的風險比較像是說\n你今天还不出钱的风险\n因为你土地不会发生消失嘛\n你这个盖好的这栋大楼\n它也不会就这样凭空消失\n那你租金其实你也可以先预测它是多少\n甚至你做写一个很长期的租院\n你去锁定那个租金的价格\n那这种东西就比较适合债权\n因为银行它不需要跟你分你赚的暴利\n它要你的是稳定按时交钱\n对所以我想要问\n就是其实刚前面爆雷\n就是大家觉得AI数据松心应该是哪一种\n要用股权还是用债权\n只是觉得来讲它是债权\n但它又会折旧\n对\n重点是在折旧一下\n因为房地产\n你50年折旧\n你算宽一点可以算到50\n你算辣一点可以到\n算好一点可以到25年\n而且如果以土地来讲\n不一定会有折旧\n土地可能甚至99年都可以\n土地不会有折旧\n但出于中心这很危险\n所以我才说\n就是这一次的状态\n比较像是你用房贷的那个还款\n去买一个\n你可能一两年就迭代掉的东西\n他就算还没折旧完\n搞不好隔年就有更强的晶片\n对\n所以我才会说一两年\n我不会说就是现在科技股\n因為他新的技術這個東西就是推陳初心嘛\n你也很難說他可能就是三年一更新或兩年一更新或一年一更新\n像買iPhone分30年就這種感覺\n對沒錯就是這個感覺\n所以現在的狀況就是現在的角色一個是包租公\n一個是二房東一個是大房客\n我現在講就是包租公就是蓋這個\n我現在講,包租公就是蓋這個樓的人嘛。其實跟台灣的建商一樣,就是他要先跟銀行借那個圖建榮。\n土地建築榮資。就是他可以先跟銀行借一筆錢去買地。\n就是他会先跟银行去借这笔钱\n然后先把这个房子盖起来\n然后等租客搬进来\n租金稳定进账了之后\n再去换一笔\n就是长期低利的贷款\n把土间融还掉\n那这个方式比较像是接力\n因为它不是一个叠加上去的东西\n但是这次的规模很不一样\n这次的规模很大\n就是德州有一个园区\n它的建设融资\n就已经到了220亿美元\n对\n这跟我们盖楼的那个skill是不一样的\n那后面那笔长期贷款\n在这边叫做资产证捐化\n就是你把未来收得到的租金\n打包成债券把它卖掉\n那2025年全球发行量\n偿过250亿美元\n比前三年加起来还要来得多\n这是所谓的包租工的角色\n那第二个东西叫二房东\n二房东是买GPU的人\n他跟包租工租了这种楼\n然后把买了一大批的GPU放进去\n然后再切成一小份一小份租给租客去使用\n那GPU太贵怎么办\n他买不起怎么办\n他就成立了一家新公司\n然后把那批GPU跟客户签约的那个租约绑在一起\n拿去跟私募基金抵押借錢\n這個黃仁勳正在推動的事情\n對這就是黃仁勳正在做事\n那重點是我要先講\n這邊有個關鍵的設計叫做無錐所全\n錐所全是什麼東西\n白話講就是這一間新的公司如果倒了\n你債主只能把你的GPU搬走\n你不可以來抄這個二房東的家\n因為是算利證券化\n對不是土地建築證券化\n所以你能搬的只能把GPU搬走\n對你的真的斷了\n你只剩GPU的殘值\n對你要自己去拆喔\n然後你去拿那GPU\n就搞不好被操爆了不知道\n好我們先不講他賣不出去GPQ的問題\n假設他都可以穩穩的賣\n好那真正的風險其實是這一棟樓的租金\n就是這棟樓的租金其實是80%\n可能來自同一個大訪客\n他的集中度非常的高\n就是你包住公拿這份租約去跟銀行借錢\n然後你的二房東拿著同一批客戶的合約\n去借錢買設備\n然後你的投資銀行再把這些租金打包成商品\n賣給保險公司跟賣給退休基金\n所以這一棟樓他其實沒有被抵押四次\n但是這四群人就是全部依賴這個大租客\n就是每個月來匯錢給他\n那如果說這個大租客只要delay一次\n那這四組人會很痛會失眠\n因為這一次的合約裡面有寫他們玩法是\n我不看你這個二房東\n他看的是你二房東手上拿到的租約是租給誰\n所以重點就是交通他都是租給Google\nMicrosoft這種他有評級\n對評級非常好的公司\n他就說OK我願意借你錢\n因為你的租客非常好非常穩\n我願意借你很多錢\n所以其實所有的風險現在又全部回到\n大租客\n對這些頂級租客\n所以他們只要開始有問題會連鎖的爆料\n對會直接喘\n因為大家是盯著他\n给钱的\n然后我现在要补充\n出事的时候会更惨的两个细节\n第一个就是所谓\n他们有交叉违约条款\n假设你今天有三张信用卡\n来自同一间公司\n其中一大涨不出来\n你的另外两张也会直接锁掉\n合理\n那企业的债务合约\n也是这样写的\n就是联动的\n那第二个就是\n很多的钱不是凭这个租约去放\n不是凭租金去放款的\n就是有专案融资的律师有说\n就是你很多现在的资料中心的\n这些贷款是按照\n就是已经签约\n但是还没有开始抽钱的\n这些租客的现金流去承诺\n白话说就是\nMaggie答应要给我钱\n她可能两年后要给我\n我现在先找别人说\n你看Maggie要给我钱\n对\n然后我就说\n对Maggie是好客户\n我给你钱\n对就是你银行看的那一份租约\n你拨了款\n但是你的租客还没有搬进来\n他也还没有付过一次的房租\n所以你的签约日\n不等于说你的收钱日\n所以这个防火墙的质量\n我觉得大家要想一下\n哈有墙吗\n有啦\n这样吧\n那我要讲更危险的\n哈哈哈\n还有\n對 就是我前面有說就是你有無罪所權\n所以你的債主不能來抄家\n就是聽起來比較安全\n就是雖然他那個牆很薄\n但還是有牆\n但這邊不是這樣\n因為你要想\n如果說今天這招防火牆真的有效\n那為什麼還要有別人來幫你簽這個保證書\n就為什麼\n為什麼還要再找大哥\n對啊 好 我先講\n就是現在的真實情況比較傾向這樣\n就是有四種情況\n第一種就是很多的案子\n他附了一張所謂的產值保證書\n就是這一批資產如果將來不值錢\n我保證會以多少的殘值殘餘價值買回\n但是像是Meta的HyperM\n這個資料中心專案上面提供殘值保證\n涵蓋了前16年規模281美元\n很大的一個數字\n然後也保證很久\n我不知道他為什麼敢開這種支票\n保證殘值\n為了去消弭所謂的那個\n折舊的風險\n告訴你我保證會買\n老師我跟不到\n殘值保證在哪一段\n誰跟誰\n你看Meta在哪\nMeta是蓋樓的那個包住公\n所以是蓋樓的那個人\n他跟二房東講\n在二手上有個殘值保證\n對 然後還有另外一個\n就是從今年開始NVR開幹這一次\n就是他對部分客戶提供了\n六年的最低應收保證\n然後跟他在自己最新的融資平台裡面\n就是提供最高25%的殘值保證\n就是你賣GPU的那間公司\n自己下場替GPU這個東西的殘值倍數\n就是有點像我賣賓士\n你跟他說我二手回收\n二手回收多少錢\n就是特斯拉幹過一樣的事情\n這特斯拉的那個舊車換新車啦\n對\n特斯拉舊車換新車可能還有50%\n這個是25%\n剩25%\n嗯\n那特斯拉很簡單\n殘值25%\n我真的覺得他最近有點\nBad bad\nYou bad bad\n好\n現在的狀況還有第二種\n就是你的母公司通常是你唯一的房客\n就是他承諾長期租下來\n然後也承諾會照付不易\n甚至還提供所謂的信用擔保\n但是這個東西\n就是法律上他只是股東\n經濟上他是那一棟房子唯一的收入來源\n這個集中度有點太風險了\n第三個狀況就是\n呃如果他真的出事了\n法院不一定會買單\n什么意思\n就是因为现在有一些\n律师事务所已经有看到\n如果说你的母公司\n透过保证租约\n跟营印控制\n实质主导的\n这间新的公司的\n说一切\n你的债权人可能会主张说\n这根本就是同一间公司\n所以他会要求\n所谓的穿透赔偿\n把他说就是\n你把公司明面上\n看起来是分开的\n但是这个防火墙\n就是我刚刚我们刚说的\n就是指门\n所以他可能会这样\n穿透过去的\n这个风险没有消失\n他只是换了一个\n现在看起来不太起眼的地方\n先待着而已\n好 再来就是\nGPU折旧\n这个东西我们讲好几次了\n它算是整个估算里面\n就是牵引法动全身的东西\n所以我要讲\n这是跟房地产那是区别在哪\n如果说你今天的抵押品是土地\n你没有问题\n因为土地不会坏掉\n但如果说你今天的抵押品是GPU\n现在各大云端巨头的\n这些韧列的使用年薪相差很大\nAmazon的话是\n现在是5年\nMeta的话是5.5年\n微软和Google的话是维持6年\n现场工程估算应该是3年\n这是一个\n还有再来就是\n现在的租金数据\n其实也是打架的\n就是H100的租金從2024年初\n是每小時7到10美元\n跌到2025年底是2到4美元\n那2026年又回升了\n現在的價格是2美元到3美元之間\n所以這個回升現在算是利多啦\n我覺得還算利多\n那目前的評級機構也是吵得非常兇\n就是標普是拒絕給AAA\n那其他什麼目的啊 惠譽啊\n直接是給AAA的\n所以我覺得看標普比較準一點\n他上次給他\n對就他\n所以他這是乖一點嗎\n而且還比較嚴格啊\n哈哈哈哈\n那這是乖一點嗎 拜託\n可是這也是其他人還給到AAA\n對 我不能理解\n我不等为什么Moodie可以给到AA\n还有还没讲完\n风险还没讲完\n心好痛\n我们场外飘出一句心好痛\n没有 先等等\n先等等\n先等等\n先听完\n然后再一个就是现在债务这件事情\n开始往下蔓延了\n2000年这个债主要是压在电信商\n他自己本身的制裁负债表上面\n所以你基本上只要看了财报\n你就会看得到他的债\n那现在这个债正在往外搬\n就是搬到了资料中心的开发商\n私募基金里面\n电力专案融资里面\n算地租印这些业者身上\n所以它蔓延出去了\n它不会只留在他身上\n所以你看这五大巨头的财报\n你会低估了整个系统的杠杆\n因为现在的规模有多大\n就是META的那个资料中心\n它有跟Bluol的合资公司\n发行了一个272亿美元的优先担保债券\n票息是6.5%\n6.58%\n然后2049年才到期\n标普给A家\n他很有自信我可以撑到2049年\n然后目的有算过\n就是现在五大云厂商\n已经签约到还没起租的租赁合约\n大概合计是6620亿美元\n所以等于是他们调整后的债务的113%\n还记得开头我说NVIDIA的那个新闻\n就是他开始要主旧了\n就是 不能只有你們玩我也要玩\n對 所以他把私募信貸的巨頭也拉進來了\n所以他這是開的是五千億美元的第三方資本引進\n客觀事實就是\n這套玩法從最頂尖的這五家\n蔓延到了體質跟這五家有落差的\n中小溪其他的算力的業者\n因為這幾家他這次拉進來這幾家私募信貸的巨頭\n他們就是放貸很靈活嘛\n速度很快嘛\n然後也比較支持創新的產業嘛\n但是他就是透明度低槓桿也高\n然後也沒有銀行必須要做壓力設施的這個條件\n對 這是銀行的放款哦\n對所以就是沒有人知道\n這裡面到底有多少雷包\n可是好消息是現在這六大巨頭\n是木星代的這六大巨頭\n錢是很多啦\n只是他們沒有足夠好的產品\n去吸引別人來買他的東西\n欸對但是他2025年報過\n也是這幾家喔\n回過頭來就是講完風險\n我們要回來看嘛\n就是那這些收入到底有多少是真的\n就是Google跟Amazon\n現在自由現金都是轉付了\n然後之前的AI的基礎建設\n主要是靠著他現在主業的現金來撐\n就是所謂的廣告\n雲端軟體跟電商的抽成\n那从今年开始会越来越像\n就是靠融资去驱动的\n所以这件事情的麻烦\n不是说他的杠杆这件事情而已\n而是他牵扯他自己收入的真实性\n就是因为如果说你的收入不真实\n你会反过头来增加你杠杆的风险\n对 这边的钱很多时候\n其实没有真的付出去\n因为现在这些顶尖的AI模型公司\n如果说他真的只靠股权融资\n他恐怕连他的训练费都付不出来\n所以现实中他们付给云端厂商的钱\n很大一部分不是现金是记账\n我收的\n记墙上\n用抵消\n什么意思呢\n就是它抵銷方式有兩個\n就是一部分是雲廠商的投資款\n但是所謂的投資也不是給真錢\n而是把算力折就折成投資\n那一部分是用所謂的算力抵用券\n就是雲廠商他自己也是AI的使用大戶\n所以他付給這個模型公司的分層\n用抵用券去對銷完了\n所以剩下的才是我們現在看到的所謂的AR\n好聽下一個複雜度為我解釋\n台灣人已經聽懂我下一張\n哈囉我是Maggie\n每週的公開會員一小時直播\n覺得聽得不夠過癮嗎?\n沒問題\n我們在每週四的公開直播後\n還會有一個小時的會員直播\n在會員直播裡面\n我們會有更深入的解析喔\n每週直播結束後\n還會有水堂卡\n那會有機會解鎖小獎勵喔\n會員直播裡面\n我們會講到更深入的個股分析\n我們近期的配置更新\n或是新進出場的股票\n我轉倉的其中一個標的是這個\n喔你直接講喔\n我本來講說我要問你\n團隊最近觀察的公司或加密貨幣\n甚至是一些對外不可告人的市場秘辛\n就點開盤之後呢\n還會做一個很噁心的抖動\n然後在那個抖動期間呢\n其實就是\n這些分析我相信市場上大多數是找不到的\n而我們也有信心會員的內容一定是很完整的\n如果遇到內容害過健身怎麼辦\n沒關係我們還有主持人會幫忙白話或是新手翻譯\n大家知道CPI是什麼吧?\n不知道\n消費者物價指數就是\n你平常買的這個\n而且會員直播的提問我們都會記錄下來\n日後會給大家詳細的回覆\n如果還沒有訂閱的朋友可以直接點擊下方\n加入我們的YouTube會員\n每個月只要450台幣大約15美金\n稍後就可以跟我們一起參與後續的會員直播啦\n大家有進什麼蛋塔工廠嗎?\n蛋挞狂热\n就年轻一点可能不知道\n但是我用手摇引来加盟\n这个事情你应该就可以懂\n这个状况就有点像是你今年一年\n开200家手摇引料店的品牌\n你的总部财报会非常的漂亮\n对不对\n因为你的加盟金\n你的机器设备你的原物料\n你每开一家新店\n基本上都是一笔新的营收\n对\n所以你的开店\n开店数的那个曲线是一路往上\n但是如果你今天去问一句\n你这200家店的钱是哪里来的\n有一部分是总部直接借给加盟组的\n那一部分是用所谓的\n设备折抵加盟金的方式去做掉\n所以根本没有现金真实的往来\n所以加盟组他一旦签了约\n你的原料就只能跟总部进\n所以总部的营收会一直漂亮下去\n因为只要他愿意借钱出去\n愿意有人继续开新店\n他就会一直营收漂亮\n那所以真正该问题就是一个\n你这200家店\n真正卖给客人的杯数\n有没有跟着成长\n这就是所谓的\n用融资来创造需求的方式\n所以你从外面来看\n就是你这条链\n看起来就是大家歌舞平生\n非常的繁荣\n就是你的雲端廠商增加資本開支\n買GPU蓋記憶法\n然後產生AI的服務收入\n然後AI公司在買雲服務\n然後形成新的收入\n然後墨型廠再從\n墨型廠到雲端廠\n然後從資料中心到第三方算力租借的業者\n然後從晶片廠到上游供應鏈\n這些訂單看起來都非常的熱鬧\n但是實際上就是你欠我的\n我欠他的 他欠你的\n大家可以稍微去看\n就是我假如在NVIDIA\n我借錢給我底下的廠商來買我的晶片\n所以看起來大家的財報都很好\n我有買到東西\n然後我有收入我有賺錢\n但是这个钱其实是最上人的借给下面\n然后在中间的再借给下面的\n然后大概签一签就这样绕一圈\n所以刚刚Meggy讲的整个重点就是\n好你们这样绕\n没关系你们这样绕\n但外面到底有没有真的花钱来买你们的产品\n买你们的服务\n那才是真正的重点\n如果没有的话这个绕到最后就会\n台湾蛋挞嘛\n对下场\n对这个东西其实这样的商业模式\n我们生活中就有了\n台湾就有案例\n对就是有案例\n就是可以看出来吗\n所以讲白就是现在的AI的收入\n缺乏所谓的独立性\n就是他不是从他AI的生态里面\n自己长出来的钱\n那到底什么才叫做真实的需求\n就是投资AI产业链\n这个东西你其实不能只看订单\n因为关键是\n就是这些需求\n有多少是来自最终用户吗\n你有多少是来自产业内部的钱\n去转出来的\n那后者\n我不会说它是一个假的需求\n但是这个需求要打折\n甚至打对折\n那真正的独立需求是\n你要扣除云端厂商的质件啊\n一些投资啊\n算低预付款啊\n算低抵用券这些之后\n阿里亚达之后\n那些纯粹用现金流理付出来的钱收入啦\n这些人才是真正愿意长期付钱的人\n那现在问题就是\n这个数字现在目前没有人可以统计出来\n因为他真的太乱了\n所以有一个替代指标\n就是我前面讲那个加速度\n就是现在因为现在资本快支\n你不管怎么砸嘛\n你最多你只能推动的是速度\n那你这个加速度要继续往上\n一定是我刚说的\n你这个内循环外面有多了新的力量进来\n有额外的新增需求进来\n有增增的进来加速度才上\n对所以一定要新进来才会有加速度\n现在唯一能看的就是加速度\n好来啦\n最后最后谁要扛债呢\n如果真的发生了系统性风险\n谁要还钱呢\n如果说你把AI的基础建设的债务\n你一层一层往下传导\n你会发现最后扛的人\n跟我们一开始想的会不太一样\n因为一开始我们一定想说\n那一定就是那五大云服务厂商嘛\n但不是\n因为第一层表面上的承担者\n就是所谓的AI模型跟云厂商\n因为这些都是巨无吧\n就很多人认为说\nAI债务风险不大的原因\n也是因为他们之间有所谓的长期合约\n他承諾未來10年可能會採購多少算力\n那會計上這個東西不會顯示為債務\n實際上就是拿未來的現金流去做擔保\n那第二層就是越來越多的實際借款人\n其實是資料中心的專案的公司\n就是他會成立一家特殊目的公司\n負責買地、負責建設、負責承擔債務\n那收入主要來自這些模型公司的長期租金費\n法律上債在這家公司\n但是雲場上看不到\n我們其實在Google財報那集解析的時候說\n還有他的債其實藏在他額外的一個小公司上面\n其實就Mate剛剛前面講的\n他母公司Google\n當然開錢他子公司去做這些借貸\n跟這些操作\n你們兩個要併在一起\n對 就是你可以從Google那一集\n再看到這一集\n你應該懂我在講什麼\n好 那第三層\n就是早期的債權在銀行裡面\n就是很多人從銀行的財務去判狀況去判斷\nAI的融資有沒有在大規模的金融風險\n對 但是銀行他通常不會長期持有全部風險\n他會打包成證券化商品賣出去\n就跟其實08年一樣\n就是你傳統銀行的財務看起來很安全\n不代表說社會上沒有所謂的金融險\n第四层就是所谓的真正的最终的债权人\n是机构投资者\n就是你证券化商品\n其实是卖给所谓的退休金和保险公司\n因为他们对于这种长期现金流的投资基债券\n他们的配置需求非常的高\n那当然还有中央公司在后面就是帮他们背数\n所以最后实际承担人其实是一般的投资人\n因为是我们去买的这些商品\n因为是你的退休金去买的这些商品\n是你的保险公司帮你去买的这些商品\n所以你的保单跟你的退休金可能已经在里面\n只是你不知道而已\n好 那我们就来看就是现在最脆弱的地方在哪\n就我刚刚其实对外的时候有讲到\n就是谁会先最早感受到压力\n跟谁出事真的会最惨\n其实最早承压的应该会是AI的应用\n跟一些小型的心算公司\n因为算力会越来越来越贵\n那再来是他竞争激烈\n那收入可能会低于成本\n虽然他成长很快\n但是基本上他的客户只要砍掉他的AI运算\n或者是他的token去打他价格战\n那这些公司会死得最快\n那再来是资料中心的营运商\n因为他的资产非常的重\n他负债率很高\n他收入会依赖少数大人\n那再來是資料中心的營運商。因為他的資產非常的重,他負債率很高,他收入會依賴少數大客戶。然後同時GPU會加速折舊。那這些大客戶開始減少採購啊,或者是他空置率一旦上升的話,這些新一輪的融資可能會拿不到錢。那他就會開始陷入債務危機的這個循環裡面。\n他这个会比较接近就是所谓的房地产开发商的那个状态\n但是最危险的其实还不是这两个\n最危险的就是像\n我点名了\n就是Corewith这样的公司\n就是他是高杠杆的第三方GPU租赁的公司\n就是有我们之前讲过二房东的角色\n对因为你技术包装再好\n或者是你的核心商业的模式\n就是大量买GPU去做出租嘛\n那他现在赚的钱就不是价差\n还有所谓的算力的溢价\n那但是他的杠杆非常的高\n就是他现在的债务股本比是13.8\n对\n然后它的调整后的营业利润率是指引给的是8%\n然后原低于长期目标25%到30%\n而且它的合约基本上已经全部抵出去了\n所以一旦它的收入成长低于预期\n或者是低于GPU折旧的速度\n它的资产减值的这个压力会很快的\n把它的资产负载代表给压垮\n对那反而像是无大的云厂商跟NVIDIA\n它反而是这条链上面比较有承重能力的公司\n因为它的资产负载表比较强\n它的客户也比较多\nAI只是它是现在云业务的一部分\n囤人GPU就算AI需求下降\n它也还是可以拿回去\n跑它自己本身的运的运算\n所以他们这些公司\n反而比较容易做的事情是\n它的估值会重复\n可是这一次如果说是从债务上\n这边爆发的估值重复\n应该折个三成到五成\n我觉得也是有概率会发生\n那有一支要另外单独拎出来讲\n就是Oracle\n因为它是这一轮扩张里面\n相对激进的公司\n它现在还本复习率是48%\n所以它的体质\n比较接近重资产的地产公司\n所以他也是要稍微注意一下\n那再来就是最上层的\n就是所谓的AI模型公司\n就是OpenAI跟Enthropic\n就是他们的融资是以股权为主\n还没有到硬性的\n就是硬性到齐的债务的方式融资\n如果说他没有上市\n反而相对是安全的\n因为Enthropic现在的收入有80%\n是来自企业客户\n这些客户的黏作性比较强\n收入也比较稳定\n相比之下\nOpenAI就比较脆弱\n那波动性也比较大\n因为他的收入有60%\n是来自个人消费者\n那讲不好听一点\n就是個人消費者就是一種另類的牆頭槽\n就是誰好用我就用哪個\n對\n所以再加上他的現金消耗率非常高\n他說在2027年之前都會維持在57%左右\n所以兩個一比你就知道誰比較安全一點\n對\n好最後你覺得現在到了轉折點了嗎\n我先講嗎\n我覺得是這樣\n我覺得他黃南訓算看起來\n這個操作有非常多的風險在裡面\n但不得不說\n他也等於是解救這一群AI公司短期的客\n因為他們現在缺錢\n他們需要更多資金\n那傳統方法其實已經都不夠用\n他接下來要借錢值會成本越來越大\n他利息必須付出越來越高的意義\n才會辦法借到\n黃金群找這六大巨頭來做這件事情\n我覺得短期會幫到他們\n所以我覺得雖然我們要注重風險\n但我還是會再玩一下\n但只要加速度開始減緩\n我一定會跑一批\n我一定先跑 我沒有要客氣的\n因為我們剛才有講到\n這一次的結構\n如果未來真的要炸的話會瞬間\n那個速度很快\n所以我只要有苗頭不對就開始減\nMegi其實把這一次的\n交易的策略講得非常清楚\n我沒有預料到他會講那麼清楚\n所以我覺得\n省慎樂觀吧\n我會繼續跟他玩\n但有任何的蛛絲馬跡\n我應該跑的比大家還快啦\n對\n記得講\n因為他們如果有把那個正循環做起來\n再往上衝的機率是有\n他往上衝那個漲幅也會蠻可觀的\n那老實講我現在還沒覺得到反轉的那個點\n我覺得短期之內也還不會到\n第一個原因就是\n他們的財務長都有出來說\n現在才能不夠\n就是微軟亞馬遜跟Alphabet\n这三家公司的财务长都有出来说\n就是我们现在还是供给受限的状况下\n对 第二个就是它的积压订单\n已经是签约的现金了\n那四家合计是2.33兆美元\n单季增量是\nAWS是1320亿\nOracle是加了850亿\nGoogle Cloud是加了510亿\n但是我觉得这个东西还是要看所有的品质\n因为像微软的商用位履约订单的成长总额是84%\n那排除OpenAI之后只剩25%\n所以你的每一家公司\n你还是要去看它的品质好不好\n对 第三个就是\n这个东西是以年纪的瓶颈\n先进封装就是现在已经紧张到\n就是台积电财务长有说嘛\n就是正在限制我的客户的成长\n所以HBN2026年已经完全卖完了\n那你的就是我们之前有说过的\n蓝气波轮G\n这个东西的等候名单是等了三到四年\n等于是定单是排到2028到2029\n那你的变压器的交付的年限也是很久\n那还有就是很多\n我之前有说的就是并往排队的这个年限\n也是超过五年以上\n所以这些瓶颈解除的时间\n不是以季来计算的\n是以年来计算\n所以这个工需在物理上\n很难在2026跟2027年反转\n所以我觉得现在短期先不要担心\n那现在需求其实还是在放大的啦\n就是因为Google之前有说嘛\n就是它每个月Token的处理量\n就是两年成长了330倍\nAgentic AI的单次任务的消耗量\n是传统对话的100到1000倍\n所以这个需求曲线的这个邪率\n还是有在变斗\n不是变幻\n对\n所以目前的状况下比较像是\n现在这两个始终是不同步的\n因为债务累积是一个线性的过程\n那技术革命是一个非线性的过程\n线性的过程的意思是说\n你的债务每年就是量累积嘛\n你也知道\n就是它一直可以可预测\n有时间表有到期日\n有白纸黑字的合约\n对\n所以它就是按照时间表来做事\n那非线性的意思是说\n你今天的技术有可能出现的\n哪一个奇异点\n或者它技术可能会突然加速\n也有可能突然停滞\n就是它是一个没有明确时间表的东西\n所以危险不会在于说\n就是这个技术会不会成功\n而是说今天这两个\n时钟是不同步的\n它会有点像是龟兔出来跑\n就是你一只可随时可能睡着的兔子\n去追一只永远不会休息的乌龟\n就是你不是在赌说\n这只兔子会不会跑得比乌龟快\n你在赌他说这段路上面\n他会不会突然睡着\n他的主业很强\n只代表说他危机爆发之前的时间会更长\n不代表他不会爆\n所以我们可以看什么\n第一个就是\n现在我很在意这个东西\n就是现在token的单价下跌的速度\n是快于用量成长\n我不知道大家有没有观察到\n就是企业的token使用量\n从20025年初到2026年4月成长10倍\n但是支出值成长的5倍\n什么意思\n就是你的用量爆炸\n跟你的营收爆炸是在脱钩\n那换句话说\n就代表说你的单位\nToken的价格是在跌的\n跌的可凶\n对\n那第二个就是看\n计价订单的品质\n不是规模\n刚才没有讲\n然后第三个就是看\n供给延误造成的时间差\n因为现在有报道指出\n就是2026年\n美国规划数据中心\n有1 3到1 2是延误或取消的\n它预计规划容量是12到16GW\n实际在建的只有5GW\n所以延迟的原因\n主要是因为电力跟供应链不是需求\n所以现在还是供不应求的证据摆在这\n但你要想一个问题\n如果说他把产能同时推迟到\n2027到2028年间\n如果延误的产能同时在2027年集中上线\n但那个时候单价因为价格在\n已经跌了一大截\n然后再加上产能一次到位\n跌加低单价\n这是一个不好的组合\n我觉得可以用一个简单的分类去分\n这是在做债务评级的分类\n第一类就是所谓的\n你的薪水本金加上利息都付得起\n那第二类就是说你只付得起利息\n本金会一直拖\n然后第三类就是\n你连利息都还要再借钱来缴\n这就是我们说的庞氏骗局\n第二类的人\n平常看起来会跟第一类的人一样\n差别就是他在说\n就是哪一天银行\n会不会不再和你续约\n所以银行会不会续约\n跟你房子好不好的关系不大\n跟当时的市场的景气有关\n这就是为什么刚说\n就是主业很强\n不等于他不会出事\n那我们一样把加速度的概念\n拿过来这边看\n就是你需求成长的加速度开始下滑\n那第一类就有可能会变成第二类\n那你的加速度跌破成零\n也就是說你的成長停滯了之後\n就會完全變成第二類\n而且很難靠自己再走回去\n所以盯加速度的重點在於說\n你要盯這家公司什麼時候從\n會從就是不用看銀行臉色\n變成你今天要看銀行臉色的公司\n因為像是Google跟MZ\n他們現在已經是先進流轉附了嘛\n就是剛跨進第二類的門檻\n那WRN跟META現在還在第一類\n那資本開支不控制\n可能也會去第二類\n那Oracle是早就已經在第二類\n那為什麼剛剛就像講的美在\n看起來像第一發的\n這是一個世界上最大的社會實驗\n然後好我這次做最後總結\n就是你不要把股票的\n風險跟債券的風險\n把它混為一談啊\n就是因為股東今天問的東西是說\n你的AI這個技術有沒有價值\n你未來可以賺多少錢\n那你的債主問的是說\n我今天這幾千億砸下去的固定資產\n未來可以產生多少現金流\n他\n它夠不夠付我資本的這些成本。\n所以兩個其實是完全不一樣的問題。\n那過去兩年這些股價只回答第一個問題,就只回答一個了。\n對,所以就是AI的長期風險是需求量不夠。\n但是目前這個東西其實我不擔心。\n因為需求取卷我們剛剛有說它還在繼續變抖。\n那它的渗透率其实也还在上升\n那技术也还在进步\n所以这个东西我先不担心\n那短中期累积的风险是\n你的资本开支的速度\n会超过你真实现金流产生的速度\n那这个问题其实也要好几年才会有答案\n然后可是你资本开支的速度\n有没有超过你真实现金流产生的速度\n这个东西其实每一季财报都会给答案\n所以财报要看\n那我们现在其实看到\n就是现在消泡这个时间节点还没有到\n但是融资开始往下渗透跟蔓延的\n这件事情已经开始发生\n确实已经开始发生\n那从9%到32%这件事情是已经发生的\n他不会因为说今天需求很好\n就把我借来的钱全部还给银行\n这不合理\n因为这些公司的运作逻辑不是会\n我要去还钱\n而是我要去想着\n我怎么借更多钱来把他钱生钱\n所以这个比例大概率是不会压回去的\n那大部分的问题其实都集中在源头的\nOpenAgenthropic身上\n就是你下一个爆发的新需求\n到底什么时候出现\n我相信一定会有\n但是关键是那个时间点\n要成了过去\n对\n他不能比就是全部集中在2027年\n完全上线一起集中上线的时候\n之后他才兑现说\n就是有需求\n这件事情就不太OK\n所以关键是那个时间点\n所以如果今天走了一个最坏的状况\n我觉得剧本大概是这样\n就是最前面的融资条件开始出现裂缝\n就是你的融资某一轮的估值上不去了\n然后接着是模型公司\n还会开始保留现金\n然后会缩减对算帝的承诺\n那这等于是你的合约会违约\n那你的性质源像是房地产泡沫那时候的\n第一批浪尾楼出现\n那你的违约就会打击到\n你的高杠杆的那些恶房东\n那买GPU和出租GPU的这些利差\n会开始怎么讲\n支不抵债\n对\n那最后会是整个AI体系的信用\n都崩坏冻结\n所以你的未履约的义务\n会被重新定价成\n就是交易的风险\n那以GPU担保的这些票券\n是没有办法攒期的\n那你的上游的供应链\n有可能会就开始大面积\n以资产会减值\n所以这个地方有一个\n跟房地产最大的不同\n就是你的技术其实有在进步的\n你渗透率其实有在上升的\n需求也是有在成长\n只是现在的基础设施的\n时间配置没配好\n所以到最后\n有可能反而那些资本最雄厚的\n在这一轮投入最谨慎的\n那你的风险场口最小的参与者\n有机会用极低的价格买到\n买下来那些被烂尾的\nApple就静静的看着你们借钱\n你要记得历史上的每次泡沫都是这样\n就是你泡沫破掉的时候\n这些钱没有消失\n只是换了一个人拿这些钱\n对\n那通常换到那个人在很狂热的时候\n是很理智在算报酬率的人\n好棒棒BRK\n好啦耶我終於結束了\n帥 有要問問題沒\n有人問啊\n舉手二手GPU沒有定價模型嗎\n不是二手飛機啊\n到時候怎麼定義二手價值\n應該會是集合金甲\n就是用撮合的方式定價\n有期貨就會有定價\n對\n事情都是一樣的\n這樣看起來其實對比\n八年跟00年是一樣的\n大家只是把上次兩次教訓學起來\n兩個融災一起再玩一次\n對啊\n應該就是兩次\n兩個事件的問題點在發生\n就是熊在一起\n然後告訴你這次不一樣\n對確實不一樣\n對但特別啦\n兩個然後尬奏會這樣\n然後把兩邊的好的不學學壞的這樣\n全部學壞的\n對全部學壞\n我先講一下我自己的論點\n包含那個美債啊\n其實很早之前我們就有探討過\n美債是不是一扛四片\n但你其實仔細想想\n它就是一個資金的回圈\n就是這個回圈要轉動\n就跟Milkia講一樣\n你要找到新的球\n不是說真的有人買單\n其實有人買單就代表有繞出去\n就是你要讓這個\n你不要只是一個內循環\n你的內循環有在接收一點\n外面的力量進來\n就是这个球是有互相抛来抛去\n然后不能只在同一小圈玩\n要把这球抛出去\n美国人就是最会抛来抛去\n那事实也证明\n当美国人抛不动的时候\n他就会找别人报\n他就会报别人\n要报的时候\n他就丢给某一个人\n那现在看起来\n美债也是比较压力比较有\n那谁可以被牺牲\n就是一个好人议题\n因为我觉得事情没有那么单纯\n就是说都是杠杆\n都是债务\n那谁会被牺牲\n是可以被考量的点\n所以我觉得这一次事件\n我自己判断的结尾\n也会是这样的点\n就是看牺牲谁\n然后范围多大\n那我觉得这些东西\n在过程当中都会有蛛丝码\n只是那个时机点还没到\n但是我也要讲就是\n我们明现在讲出来\n就是因为我希望\n他对这件事情\n对你们而言是个灰犀牛\n不是个黑天鹅\n如果你们知道\n他是个灰犀牛\n就是你知道\n他总有一天会发生这件事情\n只是你不知道什么时候发生\n那你就可以先做好准备\n有人问灰犀牛\n跟黑天鹅差别在哪\n黑天鹅就是你完全\n突如其来\n意料之外发生事情\n但如果这件事\n灰溪铭就是你知道它存在在那\n只是你不知道它什么时候朝你冲过来\n我觉得这就套用回投资的那个逻辑\n就是说在这个情况下\n你真的就是半上车半上\n除非你的你投入的资金真的太旁\n大到会影响\n那你可能上的比例就要再恐\n因为你看像巴菲特的逻辑\n就是因为它现金放在那边也没差\n那就放\n但是如果你这个成长率来讲\n还是有称的必要\n还是要对啊\n不能完全下跌\n我觉得这个是很好的议题\n而且坦白讲啦\n看他们这样搞\n这没有不报的理由啦\n对啊\n整天早晚\n我在套用\n他还出来主揪\n真的觉得真的是\nYou bet bet\n呃\n我给大家一个数字啦\n就是我刚才\n之所以一直用电脑就这样\n我查了五大\n就是前五大巨头\n前七大 前八大\n我所有我想得到的\n四个英文字母\n能抽出来的公司\n过去三年\n真的没有人买股票啦\n公司内部人\n没有人买股票\n只有马斯克象征意义的\n带着食物充了一次\n有的没有\n他买满多的\n那个特斯拉\n对\n其他没有\n对\n他那個象徵意義比較重\n還有一堆\n行銷費\n行銷費\n還有一堆\n台系列的股東\n不知道為什麼要10萬10萬台幣買\n嗯\n我不懂\n有時候的毛病\n那天\n這中高階管理層他投月薪嗎\n你知道那個報表超長的你知道嗎\n哈哈哈\n對除此之外\n所有管理層沒有人在買\n全部是賣股票\n對\nGoogle Microsoft Amazon\n我那時候跟John一起查\n真的都沒有\n上年內沒有人買\n只要是大科技的\n你如果是傳統股\n可能還有一點\n比如說可能Disney\n可能還有人買\n但是這些大科技商一點都沒有\n但是你如果說要重倉\n可以想一下\n還不是時候\n不是除非你功課做得很足\n你覺得這就是你的戰略\n你就是Fuck所有AI公司\n那也是沒有不行\n我覺得不適宜一個計測\n我覺得就這樣\n你有你的策略就去執行\n對不對\n不論Maggie多專業\nErik多厲害\n你有你的想法你就去做\n對\n你最後賺到錢就好了\n你不用跟別人比\n最怕就這樣就要比\n請歡迎收聽我們的\n今朝月有節\n對嘛其實這個不用比\n我反而覺得喔\n你有一個自己很篤定的看法\n然後你執行了\n你賺到錢\n那真的\n舒服\n自己感覺是最好的\n對\n我個人的跟單經驗都不好啦\n因為哪怕我跟下去了\n他真的漲上去了\n那我對他這間公司這個標誌\n質量不足\n那最後他正在漲\n我想說那是放著\n什麼時候賣不知道\n等到注意到的時候\n他都是跌回成本價\n或是開始賠錢\n才會注意到\n或是想要\n才想要開始要處理它\n所以我跟他經驗不好\n是來自於這樣子\n所以我如果沒有做過功課\n我不懂的\n都會有問題\n但自己做功課就爽\n對 所以後來就是疑慮不更\n但是你們覺得有研究\n會報在哪裡這件事情重要嗎\n應該不重要\n重要啊\n我這個研究是指\n就是\nMAY這個研究\n但我意思是很在意\n或是說很關注\n報在哪這件事情\n就是說你要追蹤這件事情\n你覺得重要嗎\n我這意我們專業投資人\n一定是重要的\n對啊\n我們的獲利不就是來自於\n比別人更快反應\n然後轉到更多中間的波動\n波動差嘛\n不管做空還做多\n所以這對我們一定是重要的\n對一般人可能就\n不一定\n還好 要這麼近\n我會覺得有答案給我看的地方\n我就想看啊\n對啊\n至少我們可以死定的那個地方\n就是每一次財報我會想追啊\n那你\n那我還是畫450罪財經動向\n欸\n講話說真的喔\n對啊\n都愛演員\n有個這麼熱情的人幫你\n對啊 都很厲害", "language": "zh", "duration": 2891.302313, "segments": [ { "start": 0.0, "end": 29.6, "text": "NVIDIA這間賣產值的人。他親自出來幫買產值的人找錢。短期來說他是一個很大的利好。因為你需求有了。資金有了。那你擴張的瓶頸也打通了。但是會讓我開始想一個問題。就是說這一輪AI的資本開支。這個金融槓桿是不是有點加的太高了。其實這個議題很大。因為我們要聊的是。債。跟所謂的股權。沒錯。對。這是大家很常忽略掉的。就是說公司可以借錢。然後你是股東。然後我先講我理解的。你一個公司如果要倒的話。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15635500340103414, "no_speech_prob": 9.335472499205633e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.493368700265252 }, { "start": 30.0, "end": 32.4, "text": "是先还债再给股东", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 32.4, "end": 33.0, "text": "对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 33.0, "end": 35.04, "text": "这个在最根本上就有很大的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 35.04, "end": 35.96, "text": "没错", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 35.96, "end": 37.16, "text": "就比如说Oracle", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 37.16, "end": 38.44, "text": "没错", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 38.44, "end": 40.9, "text": "那可是我们现在都是股东", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 40.9, "end": 43.14, "text": "所以我才说最后会回到散户身上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 43.14, "end": 46.32, "text": "就是我不知道大家有没有注意到这则新闻", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 46.32, "end": 48.54, "text": "就是这则新闻对我而言是一件很大的事情", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 48.54, "end": 50.8, "text": "就是今年的6月NVIDIA宣布了一件事情", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 50.8, "end": 51.8, "text": "就是还要跟Apollo", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 51.8, "end": 52.68, "text": "然后BlackRock", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 52.68, "end": 53.72, "text": "还有高盛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 53.72, "end": 54.5, "text": "还有KKR", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 54.5, "end": 55.94, "text": "这几家顶尖的私募", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 55.94, "end": 57.48, "text": "还有资产管理的巨头合作", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 57.48, "end": 59.6, "text": "就是他透过一个金融平台", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13901413698247408, "no_speech_prob": 3.358034683653699e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3361823361823362 }, { "start": 59.6, "end": 63.24, "text": "去杠出5000亿美元的第三方资本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 63.24, "end": 65.26, "text": "要去盖AI的运算的基础设施", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 65.26, "end": 68.4, "text": "5000亿美元是一个很大很大很大的数字", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 68.4, "end": 69.24, "text": "你要想哦", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 69.24, "end": 71.42, "text": "NVIDIA这一间公司是一个卖产值的人", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 71.42, "end": 74.38, "text": "他亲自出来帮买产值的人找钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 74.38, "end": 76.6, "text": "短期来说照理说他是一个很大利好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 76.6, "end": 78.26, "text": "因为你需求有了资金有了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 78.26, "end": 79.86, "text": "那你扩张的瓶颈也打通了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 79.86, "end": 81.88, "text": "但是这一则新闻出来的那一天", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 81.88, "end": 83.7, "text": "我记得NVIDIA股价是跌了3%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 83.7, "end": 86.56, "text": "因为我觉得这个反应会让我开始想一个问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 86.56, "end": 89.44, "text": "就是说这一轮AI的资本开支", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08791783332824707, "no_speech_prob": 3.716990951141419e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4277456647398843 }, { "start": 89.44, "end": 92.66, "text": "的这个金融杠杆是不是有点加的太高了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 92.66, "end": 93.74, "text": "因为同一个季度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 93.74, "end": 95.2, "text": "Google上市以来的自由现金流", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 95.2, "end": 96.54, "text": "我刚刚我那次有分析嘛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 96.54, "end": 97.56, "text": "就他第一次是转付", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 97.56, "end": 99.86, "text": "那他付是8.31亿美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 99.86, "end": 100.96, "text": "那过去两年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 100.96, "end": 102.76, "text": "五大云端的巨头的资本开始里面", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 102.76, "end": 104.52, "text": "用借来的钱的支付的比重", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 104.52, "end": 106.26, "text": "从9%跳到32%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 106.26, "end": 107.9, "text": "是差不多快四倍", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 107.9, "end": 108.84, "text": "对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 108.84, "end": 109.98, "text": "所以这几家公司", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 109.98, "end": 112.8, "text": "他开始在往房地产公司的样子去转", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 112.8, "end": 115.4, "text": "就是我们这应该讲好几次了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 115.4, "end": 117.02, "text": "等于是说他一次要砸下去", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12960943262627783, "no_speech_prob": 2.8169439003633556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2640449438202248 }, { "start": 117.02, "end": 119.7, "text": "好多年才能回本的资本密集度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 119.7, "end": 121.0, "text": "然后再加上半导体那种", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 121.0, "end": 122.9, "text": "两三年就得换一轮的快速折旧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 122.9, "end": 126.28, "text": "他等于是他同时吃下了两边的负担", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 126.28, "end": 127.08, "text": "他都要吃", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 127.08, "end": 128.92, "text": "所以市场给他的估值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 128.92, "end": 130.46, "text": "还是科技股的估值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 130.46, "end": 131.9, "text": "所以我想要做一件事情就是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 131.9, "end": 133.92, "text": "我想要把2000年的那些", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 133.92, "end": 135.04, "text": ".com的剧本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 135.04, "end": 135.98, "text": "也不能说剧本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 135.98, "end": 138.12, "text": "过往的历史翻出来对照", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 138.12, "end": 140.52, "text": "比对一下这一次哪里不一样哪里一样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 140.52, "end": 142.8, "text": "然后跟应该要看什么关键数据", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 142.8, "end": 145.14, "text": "好所以我先讲就是相似的部分", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09167010333086993, "no_speech_prob": 3.279063826022721e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615160349854227 }, { "start": 145.14, "end": 147.26, "text": "第一个就是Azure它成长是45%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 147.26, "end": 149.0, "text": "AWS成长是37%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 149.0, "end": 150.3, "text": "是18级来最快", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 150.3, "end": 151.82, "text": "Google Cloud成长是82%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 151.82, "end": 154.82, "text": "那其他部分的一些云端基础设施的单机成长是93%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 154.82, "end": 157.28, "text": "四家公司的财务长在法说会上面都讲了一句话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 157.28, "end": 160.58, "text": "就是现在的需求是远远超过我们可以供给出来的产能", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 160.58, "end": 162.68, "text": "然后再加上资料中心空置率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 162.68, "end": 164.48, "text": "没有运转的地方的部位", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 164.48, "end": 165.98, "text": "就连续两年只有1%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 165.98, "end": 169.04, "text": "新建的产能有92%是在盖好之前就已经先租出去了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 169.04, "end": 170.56, "text": "等于是他已经找好买家才盖了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 170.56, "end": 173.96, "text": "所以现在其实还不是所谓的投入产出比再恶化的一个状态", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09618813895323886, "no_speech_prob": 1.8396111023388784e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2797202797202798 }, { "start": 173.96, "end": 174.84, "text": "我要先讲我的立场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 174.84, "end": 175.5, "text": "我没有看空", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 175.5, "end": 175.88, "text": "现在", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 175.88, "end": 177.4, "text": "那2026年的上半年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 177.4, "end": 179.06, "text": "没有任何的一家云厂商", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 179.06, "end": 180.06, "text": "是下修他的资本孩子", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 180.06, "end": 180.98, "text": "是全部都上修的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 180.98, "end": 182.0, "text": "那为什么我要讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 182.0, "end": 183.32, "text": "就是他跟2022", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 183.32, "end": 184.54, "text": "2000年有像的地方", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 184.54, "end": 185.26, "text": "其实就是一个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 185.26, "end": 186.94, "text": "很类似一个囚徒困境的状态", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 186.94, "end": 187.66, "text": "因为像的地方", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 187.66, "end": 188.32, "text": "其实不在于", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 188.32, "end": 189.14, "text": "现在当下的状态", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 189.14, "end": 190.38, "text": "比较像是他的决策基础", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 190.38, "end": 191.02, "text": "就是如果说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 191.02, "end": 192.8, "text": "我们现在可以回到2000年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 192.8, "end": 194.04, "text": "那时候不是电信商", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 194.04, "end": 195.7, "text": "会疯狂的扑光线吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 195.7, "end": 196.76, "text": "那网络的流量", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 196.76, "end": 198.16, "text": "那时候确实也是在爆炸", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 198.16, "end": 199.6, "text": "所以需求不是假的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 199.6, "end": 200.48, "text": "但是你事后看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1022290293375651, "no_speech_prob": 2.6071426267870734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4627659574468086 }, { "start": 200.48, "end": 201.72, "text": "就是这些长期预测方向", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 201.72, "end": 202.42, "text": "其实也是对的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 202.42, "end": 203.32, "text": "所以问题出在哪", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 203.32, "end": 203.94, "text": "问题出在说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 203.94, "end": 205.32, "text": "它的建设周期要两到三年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 205.32, "end": 206.8, "text": "但是所有人同时", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 206.8, "end": 208.54, "text": "对同一个需求去下订单", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 208.54, "end": 209.68, "text": "那我们今天看到的缺货", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 209.68, "end": 211.88, "text": "其实是三年前的决定造成的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 211.88, "end": 213.0, "text": "那你今天下的订单", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 213.0, "end": 214.32, "text": "三年后才会变成残忍", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 214.32, "end": 215.92, "text": "所以比较精准的说法是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 215.92, "end": 216.94, "text": "囚头困境不是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 216.94, "end": 218.62, "text": "你明明知道它不划算还加码", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 218.62, "end": 219.44, "text": "而是明明", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 219.44, "end": 221.38, "text": "就是明知大家都在加码", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 221.38, "end": 222.22, "text": "你也不能停", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 222.22, "end": 224.14, "text": "它比较像是一个军备竞赛的概念", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 224.14, "end": 225.36, "text": "就是因为你谁先停了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 225.36, "end": 226.48, "text": "谁会在残忍到位", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08814133538140191, "no_speech_prob": 2.5566474284866025e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4641909814323608 }, { "start": 226.48, "end": 227.94, "text": "在那一天失去它的产材质格", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 227.94, "end": 230.18, "text": "所以当初的光纤其实没有盖错", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 230.18, "end": 232.28, "text": "它只是同一个时间点盖太多", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 232.28, "end": 234.34, "text": "那其实今天的GPU其实也是一样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 234.34, "end": 236.08, "text": "就问题不是说AI没有人用", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 236.08, "end": 237.52, "text": "而是这个产能", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 237.52, "end": 239.8, "text": "有可能会在同一年集中上限", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 239.8, "end": 241.08, "text": "那一样的地方还有第二个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 241.08, "end": 242.44, "text": "就是所谓的左脚踩右脚", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 242.44, "end": 244.46, "text": "2000年它的引擎是所谓的股市", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 244.46, "end": 246.74, "text": "就是你的网络公司靠你股市募资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 246.74, "end": 248.54, "text": "募资来的钱去买通讯设备", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 248.54, "end": 249.98, "text": "设备商财报比较漂亮", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 249.98, "end": 250.98, "text": "那股交就开始大涨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 250.98, "end": 252.58, "text": "那整个产业的股市也就往上拉", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 252.58, "end": 254.58, "text": "那网络公司就可以更容易募到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0986317867702908, "no_speech_prob": 2.504323831642452e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145077720207253 }, { "start": 254.58, "end": 256.16, "text": "下一轮的股权融资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 256.16, "end": 259.14, "text": "那2026年债的引擎是在债市上面", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 259.14, "end": 262.2, "text": "就是AI模型巨头签下长期的算力合约", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 262.2, "end": 264.82, "text": "然后运营厂商拿着这份合约去抵押借钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 264.82, "end": 267.14, "text": "然后把这一笔钱借到之后去盖机房", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 267.14, "end": 269.24, "text": "那为旅约订单的数字就会变得比较漂亮", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 269.24, "end": 270.32, "text": "那估值就会撑得住", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 270.32, "end": 271.48, "text": "信用评级也守得住", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 271.48, "end": 273.18, "text": "然后就更容易发下一笔债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 273.18, "end": 274.64, "text": "那一样的闭环", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 274.64, "end": 276.56, "text": "就是你一样的每一步步骤", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 276.56, "end": 278.46, "text": "都是在为下一步步骤准备", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 278.46, "end": 280.3, "text": "那差别就是差在这个燃料", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 280.3, "end": 281.34, "text": "一个是股一个是债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07760285271538628, "no_speech_prob": 3.7626877308349904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4157303370786516 }, { "start": 281.34, "end": 283.06, "text": "那当年烧的是散户的钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 283.06, "end": 284.62, "text": "这是烧的是债券市场的钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 284.62, "end": 285.4, "text": "那再来看就是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 285.4, "end": 286.78, "text": "这个裂缝怎么出现的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 286.78, "end": 287.42, "text": "就是这个泡泡", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 287.42, "end": 288.96, "text": "总会有一个裂缝出现", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 288.96, "end": 289.86, "text": "先讲一件事情就是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 289.86, "end": 291.32, "text": "你用开车来做想象", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 291.32, "end": 292.02, "text": "第一个就是速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 292.02, "end": 293.66, "text": "速度其实就是你现在跑多快", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 293.66, "end": 294.52, "text": "对应到公司就是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 294.52, "end": 296.24, "text": "你今年的营收成长有多高", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 296.24, "end": 297.76, "text": "那另外一个东西叫做加速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 297.76, "end": 298.76, "text": "就是你在踩油门", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 298.76, "end": 300.24, "text": "还是你把油门放掉了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 300.24, "end": 301.04, "text": "对应到公司就是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 301.04, "end": 301.94, "text": "去年成长68", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 301.94, "end": 303.04, "text": "你今年成长48", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 303.04, "end": 304.62, "text": "成长其实速度还在", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 304.62, "end": 305.98, "text": "但是你的加速度在减", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 305.98, "end": 306.38, "text": "对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 306.38, "end": 307.62, "text": "那股价我要讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 307.62, "end": 309.18, "text": "它反映的东西不是速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07757353888617621, "no_speech_prob": 1.9456962083164164e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6587537091988132 }, { "start": 309.18, "end": 309.94, "text": "不是加速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 309.94, "end": 310.98, "text": "在微跡分裡面", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 310.98, "end": 312.18, "text": "這好像叫什麼二階倒數", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 314.62, "end": 315.78, "text": "這個我可以打斷了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 315.78, "end": 317.98, "text": "還是我要翻譯白話文", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 317.98, "end": 319.58, "text": "翻譯翻譯", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 319.58, "end": 321.72, "text": "就是以成長來講", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 321.72, "end": 323.88, "text": "你從60到40的加速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 323.88, "end": 324.68, "text": "你股價還是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 324.68, "end": 325.44, "text": "你還是在成長", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 325.44, "end": 326.08, "text": "你還是在變好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 326.08, "end": 328.18, "text": "但你的變好的效率在變差", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 328.18, "end": 329.14, "text": "那所以你還在好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 329.14, "end": 330.02, "text": "但你效率變差", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 330.02, "end": 330.84, "text": "你的速度變慢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 330.84, "end": 332.68, "text": "那就其實對於股價而言", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 332.68, "end": 333.98, "text": "對市場而言就是一個不好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 333.98, "end": 334.58, "text": "好你去想", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 334.58, "end": 335.58, "text": "假如說你今天這輛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 335.58, "end": 337.14, "text": "這輛車還在往前開", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 337.14, "end": 338.24, "text": "你速度還是正的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.26565311266028363, "no_speech_prob": 2.8954358008426162e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5182724252491695 }, { "start": 338.24, "end": 340.34, "text": "可是你脚从油门上松掉", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 340.34, "end": 342.84, "text": "你坐在后座的那个人是不是觉得你减速了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 342.84, "end": 343.54, "text": "是不是觉得你停", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 343.54, "end": 344.94, "text": "甚至觉得你停滞了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 344.94, "end": 347.24, "text": "对所以市场就是你的那个后座乘客", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 347.24, "end": 348.04, "text": "就突然往前", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 348.04, "end": 349.04, "text": "他就这样断着嘛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 349.04, "end": 349.44, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 349.44, "end": 350.04, "text": "就会被骂", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 350.04, "end": 352.24, "text": "对所以就是资本开支砸下去", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 352.24, "end": 354.24, "text": "最多他只能推动的是速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 354.24, "end": 356.14, "text": "那你推不动加速度这件事情", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 356.14, "end": 357.94, "text": "所以你今天多盖一座机房", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 357.94, "end": 359.34, "text": "你收入当然会多一块钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 359.34, "end": 361.14, "text": "但是那是你自己花钱买来的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 361.14, "end": 362.94, "text": "不是新的人跑来跟你买", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 362.94, "end": 364.44, "text": "加速度要持续在网上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 364.44, "end": 366.14, "text": "一定是这个内循环系统", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 366.14, "end": 368.14, "text": "而外面多了一个新的需求进来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1391024301218432, "no_speech_prob": 2.486598080220226e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5162162162162163 }, { "start": 368.14, "end": 368.64, "text": "这个系统", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 368.64, "end": 370.18, "text": "所以今年上半年的加速度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 370.18, "end": 371.44, "text": "其实还是往上的原因", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 371.44, "end": 373.24, "text": "是因为靠AI agent跟coding", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 373.24, "end": 375.58, "text": "这两块真实的新的需求进来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 375.58, "end": 376.24, "text": "所以反过来说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 376.24, "end": 377.78, "text": "只要这个加速度开始下滑", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 377.78, "end": 378.64, "text": "代表新增的收入", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 378.64, "end": 380.38, "text": "已经对应不上新增的资本开支", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 380.38, "end": 381.98, "text": "那那个时候要继续盖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 381.98, "end": 383.58, "text": "就只剩一条路就是债融资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 383.58, "end": 385.04, "text": "我这边可以举几个例子", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 385.04, "end": 386.54, "text": "第一个是2000年那时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 386.54, "end": 387.8, "text": "还记得思科这间公司", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 387.8, "end": 388.74, "text": "就是很惨的那一间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 388.74, "end": 390.24, "text": "也是光纤网络的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 390.24, "end": 392.54, "text": "所以那时候企业采购的CEO", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 392.54, "end": 393.78, "text": "有出来说一句话就是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 393.78, "end": 395.04, "text": "我们正在回归正常", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 395.04, "end": 396.3, "text": "那时候思科的订单", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11546133253309462, "no_speech_prob": 3.450607855004506e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.369727047146402 }, { "start": 396.3, "end": 397.56, "text": "还成长了40%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 397.56, "end": 398.66, "text": "就是只是没有以前那么快", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 398.66, "end": 399.5, "text": "但是还是有成长", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 399.5, "end": 401.6, "text": "那2006年房价还在涨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 401.6, "end": 404.28, "text": "但是次贷违约率有继续往上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 404.28, "end": 404.56, "text": "怎么讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 404.56, "end": 405.9, "text": "不是因为那时候房价跌", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 405.9, "end": 407.62, "text": "是因为它涨得不够快", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 407.62, "end": 408.8, "text": "所以那些希望说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 408.8, "end": 410.38, "text": "三年后房子就可以涨价", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 410.38, "end": 411.72, "text": "涨完价就可以再融资", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 411.72, "end": 413.2, "text": "换更低的利率的人", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 413.2, "end": 414.18, "text": "就突然发现说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 414.18, "end": 415.0, "text": "它换不了了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 415.0, "end": 416.08, "text": "所以就开始违约了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 416.08, "end": 417.56, "text": "其实2026年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 417.56, "end": 418.32, "text": "就是今年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 418.32, "end": 419.28, "text": "Meta其实也说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 419.28, "end": 420.96, "text": "它要出售多余的GPU", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 420.96, "end": 422.7, "text": "这一则就是新闻", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 422.7, "end": 424.08, "text": "那时候我们也有讨论到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 424.08, "end": 424.86, "text": "那时候Meta其实", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 424.86, "end": 425.78, "text": "我有分析过", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10098621580335829, "no_speech_prob": 2.7298566185329776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4145658263305323 }, { "start": 425.78, "end": 427.78, "text": "我覺得它比較像是產能錯配", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 427.78, "end": 430.58, "text": "所以我暫時先不把它當成是一個很紅燈的訊號", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 430.58, "end": 433.18, "text": "但是我要先講就是崩盤前的第一個訊號", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 433.18, "end": 434.28, "text": "不是一個壞消息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 434.28, "end": 435.92, "text": "反而是一個沒那麼好的消息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 435.92, "end": 437.42, "text": "就是它的加速度開始減緩", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 437.42, "end": 438.92, "text": "那假如說我今天抓不准", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 438.92, "end": 440.22, "text": "抓不准它要回頭的時間", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 440.22, "end": 442.16, "text": "我也抓不准它要回測的空間", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 442.16, "end": 442.94, "text": "那我要怎麼辦", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 442.94, "end": 444.7, "text": "就是加速度這個東西很討厭的地方", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 444.7, "end": 446.0, "text": "就在於說它會演", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 446.0, "end": 447.0, "text": "就是演一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 447.0, "end": 447.86, "text": "就是假摔", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 447.86, "end": 448.1, "text": "對", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 448.1, "end": 449.14, "text": "你以為減速了沒有", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 449.14, "end": 449.94, "text": "我只是在回油", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 449.94, "end": 450.64, "text": "會在採一次", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 450.64, "end": 451.78, "text": "對 回油這個詞很好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 451.78, "end": 452.04, "text": "對", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 452.04, "end": 453.88, "text": "所以就是2000年1月那時候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 453.88, "end": 455.48, "text": "納指是連續兩週是下跌", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19568335639105902, "no_speech_prob": 3.3324929621381116e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.523076923076923 }, { "start": 455.78, "end": 480.0, "text": "降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降低降", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10677007039388021, "no_speech_prob": 3.059806227834194e-11, "compression_ratio": 31.857142857142858 }, { "start": 495.0, "end": 496.1, "text": "就是先分清楚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 496.1, "end": 497.22, "text": "你今天看的东西是什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 497.22, "end": 499.04, "text": "第一个就是假如说你看的是产业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 499.04, "end": 499.82, "text": "还是看的是金融", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 499.82, "end": 501.02, "text": "看产业这件事情就是说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 501.02, "end": 502.44, "text": "你看这个生意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 502.44, "end": 503.72, "text": "它本身发生的是什么事情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 503.72, "end": 504.7, "text": "你货卖不卖得掉", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 504.7, "end": 505.5, "text": "你才能够不够", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 505.5, "end": 506.8, "text": "你的价格是涨还是在跌", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 506.8, "end": 507.92, "text": "你的老板是在说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 507.92, "end": 509.44, "text": "我今天GP来不及做", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 509.44, "end": 510.34, "text": "就是我做不出来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 510.34, "end": 511.42, "text": "我供给没办法跟上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 511.42, "end": 512.64, "text": "还是说我今天就是一个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 512.64, "end": 513.9, "text": "货量回归正常", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 513.9, "end": 514.9, "text": "对这是看产业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 514.9, "end": 516.16, "text": "那看金融比较像是说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 516.16, "end": 517.36, "text": "你看借钱给这个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 517.36, "end": 518.24, "text": "做生意的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 518.24, "end": 518.88, "text": "他在想什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 518.88, "end": 519.98, "text": "就是他还借得到钱吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 519.98, "end": 520.98, "text": "他利率跟半年前", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08764205932617188, "no_speech_prob": 4.180518084484497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6138328530259367 }, { "start": 520.98, "end": 522.1, "text": "是变贵还是变便宜", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 522.1, "end": 523.14, "text": "那发债有没有人买", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 523.14, "end": 524.7, "text": "所以一个是看你的生意做的好不好", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 524.7, "end": 526.06, "text": "一个是看你钱还借不借得到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 526.06, "end": 529.42, "text": "那这两个讯号的容错率会差很多", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 529.42, "end": 532.58, "text": "因为产业讯号有机会会做自我修复", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 532.58, "end": 534.82, "text": "但金融讯号它会做自我实现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 534.82, "end": 536.14, "text": "好听不懂一点问号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 536.14, "end": 538.98, "text": "好就是比如说你这一季度的订单", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 538.98, "end": 540.22, "text": "它表现不好", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 540.22, "end": 543.1, "text": "那它可能客户它只把订单遞延到下一季", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 543.1, "end": 544.38, "text": "它可能羁押到下一季而已", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 544.38, "end": 546.22, "text": "那你价格跌了你供给就会减少", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 546.22, "end": 547.54, "text": "那你价格可能又会回来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 547.54, "end": 549.7, "text": "还有天然的供需的价格的回弹机制", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10392186448380754, "no_speech_prob": 2.916497252036798e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5258620689655173 }, { "start": 549.7, "end": 551.14, "text": "那你金融信号刚好相反", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 551.14, "end": 552.58, "text": "就是说市场觉得你有风险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 552.58, "end": 553.64, "text": "你的借贷成本就会上升", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 553.64, "end": 555.08, "text": "你的现金流就真的变差", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 555.08, "end": 556.7, "text": "你的市场就觉得你真的有风险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 556.7, "end": 558.1, "text": "所以他不会自己好回来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 558.1, "end": 559.4, "text": "就是这个东西只要一启动", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 559.4, "end": 561.12, "text": "他就会自己做死这个市场的猜测", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 561.12, "end": 562.06, "text": "对所以就是我说的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 562.06, "end": 564.02, "text": "就是金融信号会变成", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 564.02, "end": 565.82, "text": "是一个自我实现的状态", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 565.82, "end": 567.34, "text": "那像2007年的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 567.34, "end": 568.32, "text": "6月底投资银行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 568.32, "end": 570.28, "text": "他包销的杠杆就是突然卖不掉", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 570.28, "end": 571.74, "text": "光是美国就2500亿美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 571.74, "end": 572.56, "text": "卡在银行手上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 572.56, "end": 574.12, "text": "然后就是被迫任列进", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 574.12, "end": 575.22, "text": "他自己的资产负债表", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 575.22, "end": 576.7, "text": "所以可以怎么做呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09900398254394531, "no_speech_prob": 2.4677237683845554e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.508108108108108 }, { "start": 576.7, "end": 578.48, "text": "就是有四个方式", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 578.48, "end": 579.36, "text": "第一个就是用决策", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 579.36, "end": 580.9, "text": "用条件决策", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 580.9, "end": 582.0, "text": "不要用时间点决策", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 582.0, "end": 582.94, "text": "就是你不要问说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 582.94, "end": 583.82, "text": "就是我什么时候要买", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 583.82, "end": 584.36, "text": "而是问说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 584.36, "end": 585.24, "text": "我看到什么时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 585.24, "end": 585.86, "text": "我减多少", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 585.86, "end": 586.9, "text": "这个事先写下来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 586.9, "end": 587.76, "text": "就比如说你可能看到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 587.76, "end": 588.86, "text": "某一条左侧讯号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 588.86, "end": 589.48, "text": "减三分之一", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 589.48, "end": 590.92, "text": "看到两条左侧讯号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 590.92, "end": 591.56, "text": "同时出现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 591.56, "end": 592.38, "text": "可能减到剩一半", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 592.38, "end": 594.0, "text": "那右侧讯号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 594.0, "end": 595.38, "text": "可能就出现了两次", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 595.38, "end": 596.14, "text": "你就把它清仓", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 596.14, "end": 596.82, "text": "就是你自己可以", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 596.82, "end": 597.8, "text": "设定一个条件", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 597.8, "end": 598.56, "text": "它的好处在哪", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 598.56, "end": 599.98, "text": "就是你不需要去预测它", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 599.98, "end": 601.52, "text": "你只要需要辨识它", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 601.52, "end": 602.34, "text": "有没有出现就好了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08923016018337673, "no_speech_prob": 2.8507701407831654e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6238532110091743 }, { "start": 602.34, "end": 604.08, "text": "就是辨识比预测还要再简单嘛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 604.08, "end": 604.86, "text": "对所以预测是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 604.86, "end": 606.02, "text": "我觉得会发生什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 606.02, "end": 607.58, "text": "辨识是我看到了什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 607.58, "end": 608.44, "text": "它对或不对", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 608.44, "end": 610.22, "text": "所以你前者你不会有信心", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 610.22, "end": 611.48, "text": "你后者就是基本上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 611.48, "end": 613.02, "text": "你只要肯做文科你一定做到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 613.02, "end": 614.74, "text": "对那第二个方式就是分批啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 614.74, "end": 616.86, "text": "就是左右侧用不同的节奏", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 616.86, "end": 618.8, "text": "因为左侧通常比较多运判性质", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 618.8, "end": 620.86, "text": "所以你左侧可以允许自己多错一点", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 620.86, "end": 621.86, "text": "右侧出现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 621.86, "end": 623.46, "text": "你就需要谨慎处理", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 623.46, "end": 624.28, "text": "这差别在这边", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 624.28, "end": 625.72, "text": "那这边篇幅不够", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 625.72, "end": 627.72, "text": "我在media里面会讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 627.72, "end": 628.78, "text": "左侧要看什么讯号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 628.78, "end": 629.84, "text": "右侧要看什么讯号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 629.84, "end": 630.9, "text": "这东西太多了真的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0913727060953776, "no_speech_prob": 2.2735376081772785e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4688346883468835 }, { "start": 630.9, "end": 632.04, "text": "好然后第三个就是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 632.04, "end": 634.66, "text": "就是按照谁靠债融资活着", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 634.66, "end": 635.38, "text": "去做分类", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 635.38, "end": 636.96, "text": "不是说谁涨最多来分类", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 636.96, "end": 637.9, "text": "因为他决定的不是说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 637.9, "end": 638.72, "text": "你今天公司跌多超", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 638.72, "end": 639.66, "text": "是你跌下去之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 639.66, "end": 640.42, "text": "还涨不涨得回来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 640.42, "end": 642.02, "text": "因为你好的公司跌五成会涨回来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 642.02, "end": 642.84, "text": "你坏的公司跌五成", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 642.84, "end": 643.42, "text": "他会GG", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 643.42, "end": 644.3, "text": "那第四个就是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 644.3, "end": 645.72, "text": "心态上要先接受", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 645.72, "end": 646.44, "text": "就我刚有说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 646.44, "end": 648.78, "text": "你真的不太可能卖在最高点", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 648.78, "end": 650.52, "text": "所以你卖早这件事情的成本", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 650.52, "end": 651.74, "text": "你就要接受它是一个成本", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 651.74, "end": 652.88, "text": "不是你自己的判断失误", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 652.88, "end": 654.54, "text": "因为2000年真正跑掉的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 654.54, "end": 655.44, "text": "不是预测对的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 655.44, "end": 656.94, "text": "他是接受自己会踏空", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1132318115234375, "no_speech_prob": 2.7956607515089438e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5247252747252746 }, { "start": 656.94, "end": 658.22, "text": "或者是接受自己会卖肥", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 658.22, "end": 659.92, "text": "但是还是按照规则卖的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 659.92, "end": 661.54, "text": "再来就是我要讲的事情是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 661.54, "end": 663.06, "text": "这种系统性风险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 663.06, "end": 664.18, "text": "它的杀伤力", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 664.18, "end": 665.78, "text": "其实会有很多波", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 665.78, "end": 667.18, "text": "它不是只有第一波而已", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 667.18, "end": 667.96, "text": "因为像是Wordcom", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 667.96, "end": 669.3, "text": "它那时候的这间公司", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 669.3, "end": 670.08, "text": "它的会计违规", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 670.08, "end": 671.62, "text": "从1999年就开始出现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 671.62, "end": 673.5, "text": "但是它是到2002年才被解发的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 673.5, "end": 674.48, "text": "那为什么拖了三年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 674.48, "end": 675.72, "text": "是因为你景气好的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 675.72, "end": 676.82, "text": "你这件事情会被藏起来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 676.82, "end": 678.6, "text": "就是2000年之后电信化二业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 678.6, "end": 679.86, "text": "就是电信业恶化", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 679.86, "end": 680.74, "text": "然后我在讲什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 680.74, "end": 681.8, "text": "二业对", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 681.8, "end": 683.6, "text": "电信业恶化", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 683.6, "end": 684.66, "text": "对然后资本开始下降", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 684.66, "end": 686.68, "text": "然后你的获利的压力也开始加大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11495280373689816, "no_speech_prob": 2.709746142748326e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4227848101265823 }, { "start": 686.68, "end": 689.44, "text": "所以那些就是违规的部分就越滾越大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 689.44, "end": 690.36, "text": "然後就被爆出來", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 690.36, "end": 692.96, "text": "所以你脫償這整個熊市的東西不是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 692.96, "end": 694.96, "text": "通常不是我們說的那個吹哨者", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 694.96, "end": 697.16, "text": "就是不是那一根最一開始那根針", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 697.16, "end": 699.2, "text": "其實真正會爆的是後面的連鎖反應", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 699.2, "end": 700.56, "text": "其實真正會爆的是後面的連鎖反應", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 700.56, "end": 702.52, "text": "真的不好的時候大家就會放大進來看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 702.52, "end": 704.2, "text": "對 該爆就一個月把它做爆了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 704.2, "end": 705.24, "text": "對 因為通常會是這樣", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 705.24, "end": 706.76, "text": "就是你的估值會先跌", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 706.76, "end": 709.16, "text": "然後你的資本開始會大幅收縮", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 709.16, "end": 711.88, "text": "然後你的創業的融資可能就會被凍結", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 711.88, "end": 714.2, "text": "那你的相關企業就會出現現金流惡化", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 714.2, "end": 715.84, "text": "然後你的更多問題就被翻出來", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2107857799078051, "no_speech_prob": 3.045514535005012e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5846560846560847 }, { "start": 715.84, "end": 716.7, "text": "然后就会再跌一轮", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 716.7, "end": 717.4, "text": "这可能是第一波", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 717.4, "end": 718.62, "text": "这次是第二波", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 718.62, "end": 719.16, "text": "讲错了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 719.16, "end": 719.28, "text": "对", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 719.28, "end": 721.6, "text": "所以如果说这件事情真的发生了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 721.6, "end": 723.86, "text": "就是第一轮跌完不代表就结束了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 723.86, "end": 726.2, "text": "就是因为很多历史上长期的熊市", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 726.2, "end": 727.94, "text": "都是因为他后面还有第二次跟第三次", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 727.94, "end": 728.52, "text": "我会及出现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 728.52, "end": 729.4, "text": "对着还在对着", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 729.4, "end": 730.38, "text": "股价的部分", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 730.38, "end": 730.86, "text": "好", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 730.86, "end": 732.92, "text": "那我们刚前面讲就是相似的地方", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 732.92, "end": 735.22, "text": "然后后面有不是那么相似的地方", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 735.22, "end": 736.42, "text": "第一个就是我刚前面有讲的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 736.42, "end": 738.42, "text": "就是2000年那时候是股权融资的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 738.42, "end": 740.96, "text": "那2020年是债券融资", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 740.96, "end": 741.96, "text": "债权融资的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 741.96, "end": 744.72, "text": "那股权这个东西是一个可以慢慢等的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12002558178371853, "no_speech_prob": 2.5253759153298638e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5726256983240223 }, { "start": 744.72, "end": 746.92, "text": "那债务是一个你今天时间一到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 746.92, "end": 747.88, "text": "你就是要缴的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 747.88, "end": 748.92, "text": "对就像你买房嘛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 748.92, "end": 750.5, "text": "假如说你是全款买房的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 750.5, "end": 751.18, "text": "全额付清的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 751.18, "end": 752.3, "text": "跟你是贷款买房的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 752.3, "end": 753.42, "text": "那你全款买房的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 753.42, "end": 755.04, "text": "你今天房价跌了30%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 755.04, "end": 756.18, "text": "你会觉得很痛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 756.18, "end": 757.94, "text": "但是不会有人来敲门跟你要钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 757.94, "end": 759.34, "text": "就是你有等待的权利", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 759.34, "end": 761.02, "text": "那如果说你今天是贷款买房的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 761.02, "end": 761.88, "text": "房价跌30%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 761.88, "end": 763.52, "text": "银行会来跟你说你要补不缴", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 763.52, "end": 765.16, "text": "你补不出来房子可能就不是你的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 765.16, "end": 767.36, "text": "所以不管你多看好未来10年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 767.36, "end": 769.74, "text": "你有的是你要交钱的这件事情的义务", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 769.74, "end": 770.9, "text": "那借钱给公司的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 770.9, "end": 771.84, "text": "公司通常赚翻了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08038861592610677, "no_speech_prob": 1.983416555995099e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.586894586894587 }, { "start": 771.84, "end": 773.38, "text": "他也只拿固定的股息", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 773.38, "end": 775.2, "text": "所以公司出事有可能会全配", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 775.2, "end": 777.38, "text": "所以债主这个生物", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 777.38, "end": 779.4, "text": "是全世界最悲观的一群人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 779.4, "end": 781.3, "text": "对不要去挑战还有多悲观", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 781.3, "end": 782.98, "text": "就是他不会等到你真的出事了之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 782.98, "end": 783.6, "text": "他还跑掉", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 783.6, "end": 785.44, "text": "他说你看起来还没那么顺畅", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 785.44, "end": 786.44, "text": "哪里卡卡的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 786.44, "end": 787.34, "text": "他就会开始出现", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 787.34, "end": 788.44, "text": "他我觉得我该跑了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 788.44, "end": 790.64, "text": "那股票会这件事情会让你觉得痛很久", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 790.64, "end": 793.2, "text": "那债券会让你痛的很短", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 793.2, "end": 794.78, "text": "但是你甚至有可能来不及反应", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 794.78, "end": 796.94, "text": "所以如果说这是真的有泡沫要小跑", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 796.94, "end": 797.84, "text": "会来得很快", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 797.84, "end": 798.9, "text": "对 因为这个顺序", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 798.9, "end": 800.34, "text": "对 这个顺序是相反的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17315498607580743, "no_speech_prob": 2.4011482038788223e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4726775956284153 }, { "start": 800.34, "end": 802.08, "text": "就是2000年那时候是先杀估值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 802.08, "end": 803.96, "text": "那他从3月见顶", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 803.96, "end": 805.72, "text": "然后到4月是跌破年限", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 805.72, "end": 808.3, "text": "可是他的真正的起跌点是9月", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 808.3, "end": 809.26, "text": "所以虽然很惨", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 809.26, "end": 810.32, "text": "但是你有时间反应", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 810.32, "end": 811.96, "text": "这次的压力点其实在债市", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 811.96, "end": 813.66, "text": "因为债务这个东西没有所谓的中间值", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 813.66, "end": 816.06, "text": "你就只有融资成功或者是不成功", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 816.06, "end": 818.28, "text": "如果融资成功就看起来什么事情都没有发生", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 818.28, "end": 819.76, "text": "那如果说你今天债融资失败", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 819.76, "end": 821.98, "text": "你就是要面对你的资产查封啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 821.98, "end": 823.48, "text": "什么债券价格归零啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 823.48, "end": 824.28, "text": "这种事情发生", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 824.28, "end": 826.2, "text": "所以这次如果真的要盯的东西", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 826.2, "end": 828.4, "text": "反而是你要盯那些高收益债的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08387170396409593, "no_speech_prob": 2.3828905862388616e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4550264550264551 }, { "start": 828.4, "end": 830.9, "text": "那你如果今天去盯大盘的股價", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 830.9, "end": 832.1, "text": "會比較晚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 832.1, "end": 833.9, "text": "然後再來另外一個不一樣的地方就是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 833.9, "end": 835.4, "text": "這一次的狀態比較像是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 840.7, "end": 842.4, "text": "你腦袋中過了多少東西", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 842.4, "end": 843.4, "text": "什麼意思", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 843.4, "end": 846.4, "text": "你都把電影看完然後叹氣我", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 846.4, "end": 847.4, "text": "劇情是什麼", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 847.4, "end": 849.4, "text": "他剛剛已經想過3000多萬種可能", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 849.4, "end": 852.4, "text": "那是奇異伙是不是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 852.4, "end": 854.4, "text": "好啦回來", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 854.4, "end": 857.6, "text": "這一次是科技的風險加上房地產的槓桿", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3303106713482714, "no_speech_prob": 1.8268775381358182e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.259927797833935 }, { "start": 857.6, "end": 859.0, "text": "好我們說科技工風險", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 859.0, "end": 861.4, "text": "通常是假如說你在發展一個科技", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 861.4, "end": 863.3, "text": "你做出來有可能會沒有人要的狀態", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 863.3, "end": 865.6, "text": "你頭100塊有可能全部都是歸零大水漂的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 865.6, "end": 866.6, "text": "但是你成功了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 866.6, "end": 868.34, "text": "你可能就是一個爆發性的成長", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 868.34, "end": 871.54, "text": "然後而且是一個別人可能很難有跨越的一個科技壁壘", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 871.54, "end": 872.8, "text": "那這種大部分會是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 872.8, "end": 874.86, "text": "就是如果成功的話可能會超級賺的東西", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 874.86, "end": 875.6, "text": "比較適合股權", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 875.6, "end": 877.9, "text": "就是因為你股東通常就會做好一種心理準備", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 877.9, "end": 880.9, "text": "就是反正我投進去有可能會賠光的心理準備", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 880.9, "end": 882.4, "text": "對但是他要的東西是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 882.4, "end": 884.6, "text": "你如果成功了我要你那個爆發", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 884.6, "end": 886.6, "text": "對那房地產的風險比較像是說", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13314684425912252, "no_speech_prob": 2.8077403249615607e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5952380952380953 }, { "start": 886.6, "end": 888.04, "text": "你今天还不出钱的风险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 888.04, "end": 889.54, "text": "因为你土地不会发生消失嘛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 889.54, "end": 891.14, "text": "你这个盖好的这栋大楼", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 891.14, "end": 892.4, "text": "它也不会就这样凭空消失", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 892.4, "end": 895.46, "text": "那你租金其实你也可以先预测它是多少", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 895.46, "end": 897.96, "text": "甚至你做写一个很长期的租院", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 897.96, "end": 899.62, "text": "你去锁定那个租金的价格", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 899.62, "end": 901.18, "text": "那这种东西就比较适合债权", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 901.18, "end": 904.4, "text": "因为银行它不需要跟你分你赚的暴利", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 904.4, "end": 906.58, "text": "它要你的是稳定按时交钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 906.58, "end": 907.56, "text": "对所以我想要问", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 907.56, "end": 908.74, "text": "就是其实刚前面爆雷", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 908.74, "end": 911.44, "text": "就是大家觉得AI数据松心应该是哪一种", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 911.44, "end": 912.56, "text": "要用股权还是用债权", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 912.56, "end": 913.86, "text": "只是觉得来讲它是债权", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 913.86, "end": 915.04, "text": "但它又会折旧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 915.04, "end": 915.26, "text": "对", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14639431051074656, "no_speech_prob": 3.15700313113787e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4046391752577319 }, { "start": 915.26, "end": 916.56, "text": "重点是在折旧一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 916.56, "end": 917.86, "text": "因为房地产", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 917.86, "end": 919.24, "text": "你50年折旧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 919.24, "end": 920.6, "text": "你算宽一点可以算到50", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 920.6, "end": 921.78, "text": "你算辣一点可以到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 921.78, "end": 923.2, "text": "算好一点可以到25年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 923.2, "end": 924.32, "text": "而且如果以土地来讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 924.32, "end": 924.94, "text": "不一定会有折旧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 924.94, "end": 926.52, "text": "土地可能甚至99年都可以", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 926.52, "end": 927.66, "text": "土地不会有折旧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 927.66, "end": 929.02, "text": "但出于中心这很危险", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 929.02, "end": 930.16, "text": "所以我才说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 930.16, "end": 931.9, "text": "就是这一次的状态", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 931.9, "end": 933.96, "text": "比较像是你用房贷的那个还款", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 933.96, "end": 934.66, "text": "去买一个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 934.66, "end": 936.6, "text": "你可能一两年就迭代掉的东西", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 936.6, "end": 938.04, "text": "他就算还没折旧完", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 938.04, "end": 939.56, "text": "搞不好隔年就有更强的晶片", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 939.56, "end": 939.92, "text": "对", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 939.92, "end": 941.68, "text": "所以我才会说一两年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 941.68, "end": 943.12, "text": "我不会说就是现在科技股", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14023957363394804, "no_speech_prob": 3.413729368628715e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5375375375375375 }, { "start": 943.12, "end": 946.12, "text": "因為他新的技術這個東西就是推陳初心嘛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 946.12, "end": 949.12, "text": "你也很難說他可能就是三年一更新或兩年一更新或一年一更新", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 949.12, "end": 951.12, "text": "像買iPhone分30年就這種感覺", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 951.12, "end": 952.12, "text": "對沒錯就是這個感覺", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 952.12, "end": 956.12, "text": "所以現在的狀況就是現在的角色一個是包租公", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 956.12, "end": 957.12, "text": "一個是二房東一個是大房客", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 957.12, "end": 959.12, "text": "我現在講就是包租公就是蓋這個", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2109231336401143, "no_speech_prob": 5.430287469687656e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4135021097046414 }, { "start": 960.0, "end": 965.0, "text": "我現在講,包租公就是蓋這個樓的人嘛。其實跟台灣的建商一樣,就是他要先跟銀行借那個圖建榮。", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.265212513151623, "no_speech_prob": 1.1304563188319072e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5153374233128833 }, { "start": 965.0, "end": 970.0, "text": "土地建築榮資。就是他可以先跟銀行借一筆錢去買地。", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.265212513151623, "no_speech_prob": 1.1304563188319072e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5153374233128833 }, { "start": 970.0, "end": 971.92, "text": "就是他会先跟银行去借这笔钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 971.92, "end": 973.76, "text": "然后先把这个房子盖起来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 973.76, "end": 974.94, "text": "然后等租客搬进来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 974.94, "end": 976.64, "text": "租金稳定进账了之后", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 976.64, "end": 977.62, "text": "再去换一笔", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 977.62, "end": 978.76, "text": "就是长期低利的贷款", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 978.76, "end": 979.64, "text": "把土间融还掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 979.64, "end": 981.02, "text": "那这个方式比较像是接力", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 981.02, "end": 982.56, "text": "因为它不是一个叠加上去的东西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 982.56, "end": 984.92, "text": "但是这次的规模很不一样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 984.92, "end": 986.1, "text": "这次的规模很大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 986.1, "end": 988.22, "text": "就是德州有一个园区", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 988.22, "end": 989.08, "text": "它的建设融资", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 989.08, "end": 990.5, "text": "就已经到了220亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 990.5, "end": 990.86, "text": "对", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 990.86, "end": 993.38, "text": "这跟我们盖楼的那个skill是不一样的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 993.38, "end": 994.82, "text": "那后面那笔长期贷款", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 994.82, "end": 996.46, "text": "在这边叫做资产证捐化", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11372639973958333, "no_speech_prob": 2.5451543650412134e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4 }, { "start": 996.46, "end": 998.14, "text": "就是你把未来收得到的租金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 998.14, "end": 999.64, "text": "打包成债券把它卖掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 999.64, "end": 1001.38, "text": "那2025年全球发行量", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1001.38, "end": 1002.5, "text": "偿过250亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1002.5, "end": 1004.48, "text": "比前三年加起来还要来得多", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1004.48, "end": 1006.5, "text": "这是所谓的包租工的角色", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1006.5, "end": 1007.96, "text": "那第二个东西叫二房东", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1007.96, "end": 1009.32, "text": "二房东是买GPU的人", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1009.32, "end": 1011.26, "text": "他跟包租工租了这种楼", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1011.26, "end": 1013.74, "text": "然后把买了一大批的GPU放进去", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1013.74, "end": 1016.68, "text": "然后再切成一小份一小份租给租客去使用", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1016.68, "end": 1017.78, "text": "那GPU太贵怎么办", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1017.78, "end": 1018.52, "text": "他买不起怎么办", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1018.52, "end": 1020.04, "text": "他就成立了一家新公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1020.04, "end": 1024.88, "text": "然后把那批GPU跟客户签约的那个租约绑在一起", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08255008533240506, "no_speech_prob": 1.9452614866133366e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3908045977011494 }, { "start": 1024.88, "end": 1027.38, "text": "拿去跟私募基金抵押借錢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1027.38, "end": 1029.22, "text": "這個黃仁勳正在推動的事情", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1029.22, "end": 1030.92, "text": "對這就是黃仁勳正在做事", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1030.92, "end": 1032.12, "text": "那重點是我要先講", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1032.12, "end": 1034.78, "text": "這邊有個關鍵的設計叫做無錐所全", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1034.78, "end": 1035.88, "text": "錐所全是什麼東西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1035.88, "end": 1038.22, "text": "白話講就是這一間新的公司如果倒了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1038.22, "end": 1040.64, "text": "你債主只能把你的GPU搬走", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1040.64, "end": 1042.48, "text": "你不可以來抄這個二房東的家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1042.48, "end": 1044.04, "text": "因為是算利證券化", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1044.04, "end": 1046.24, "text": "對不是土地建築證券化", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1046.24, "end": 1047.88, "text": "所以你能搬的只能把GPU搬走", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1047.88, "end": 1049.58, "text": "對你的真的斷了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1049.58, "end": 1051.38, "text": "你只剩GPU的殘值", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1051.38, "end": 1052.88, "text": "對你要自己去拆喔", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1052.88, "end": 1053.88, "text": "然後你去拿那GPU", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2159868193835747, "no_speech_prob": 2.3822834330222697e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.430232558139535 }, { "start": 1053.88, "end": 1055.18, "text": "就搞不好被操爆了不知道", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1055.18, "end": 1057.64, "text": "好我們先不講他賣不出去GPQ的問題", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1057.64, "end": 1058.84, "text": "假設他都可以穩穩的賣", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1058.84, "end": 1061.54, "text": "好那真正的風險其實是這一棟樓的租金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1061.54, "end": 1064.24, "text": "就是這棟樓的租金其實是80%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1064.24, "end": 1066.04, "text": "可能來自同一個大訪客", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1066.04, "end": 1067.22, "text": "他的集中度非常的高", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1067.22, "end": 1069.62, "text": "就是你包住公拿這份租約去跟銀行借錢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1069.62, "end": 1071.92, "text": "然後你的二房東拿著同一批客戶的合約", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1071.92, "end": 1072.84, "text": "去借錢買設備", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1072.84, "end": 1075.52, "text": "然後你的投資銀行再把這些租金打包成商品", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1075.52, "end": 1077.22, "text": "賣給保險公司跟賣給退休基金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1077.22, "end": 1079.38, "text": "所以這一棟樓他其實沒有被抵押四次", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1079.38, "end": 1083.12, "text": "但是這四群人就是全部依賴這個大租客", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16073470931869369, "no_speech_prob": 3.1440561959472646e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4765625 }, { "start": 1083.12, "end": 1084.58, "text": "就是每個月來匯錢給他", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1084.58, "end": 1087.0, "text": "那如果說這個大租客只要delay一次", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1087.0, "end": 1089.46, "text": "那這四組人會很痛會失眠", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1089.46, "end": 1091.76, "text": "因為這一次的合約裡面有寫他們玩法是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1091.76, "end": 1093.56, "text": "我不看你這個二房東", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1093.56, "end": 1096.4, "text": "他看的是你二房東手上拿到的租約是租給誰", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1096.4, "end": 1098.54, "text": "所以重點就是交通他都是租給Google", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1098.54, "end": 1100.14, "text": "Microsoft這種他有評級", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1100.14, "end": 1101.4, "text": "對評級非常好的公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1101.4, "end": 1102.7, "text": "他就說OK我願意借你錢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1102.7, "end": 1103.94, "text": "因為你的租客非常好非常穩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1103.94, "end": 1104.88, "text": "我願意借你很多錢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1104.88, "end": 1107.18, "text": "所以其實所有的風險現在又全部回到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1107.18, "end": 1107.74, "text": "大租客", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1107.74, "end": 1108.84, "text": "對這些頂級租客", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1108.84, "end": 1111.22, "text": "所以他們只要開始有問題會連鎖的爆料", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1111.22, "end": 1111.94, "text": "對會直接喘", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1111.94, "end": 1112.98, "text": "因為大家是盯著他", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21548167142001065, "no_speech_prob": 3.480428445445938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.434052757793765 }, { "start": 1112.98, "end": 1113.74, "text": "给钱的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1113.74, "end": 1114.78, "text": "然后我现在要补充", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1114.78, "end": 1117.54, "text": "出事的时候会更惨的两个细节", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1117.54, "end": 1118.64, "text": "第一个就是所谓", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1118.64, "end": 1120.28, "text": "他们有交叉违约条款", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1120.28, "end": 1121.48, "text": "假设你今天有三张信用卡", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1121.48, "end": 1122.36, "text": "来自同一间公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1122.36, "end": 1123.4, "text": "其中一大涨不出来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1123.4, "end": 1125.18, "text": "你的另外两张也会直接锁掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1125.18, "end": 1125.54, "text": "合理", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1125.54, "end": 1127.34, "text": "那企业的债务合约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1127.34, "end": 1128.24, "text": "也是这样写的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1128.24, "end": 1128.98, "text": "就是联动的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1128.98, "end": 1129.82, "text": "那第二个就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1129.82, "end": 1132.3, "text": "很多的钱不是凭这个租约去放", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1132.3, "end": 1133.76, "text": "不是凭租金去放款的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1133.76, "end": 1135.76, "text": "就是有专案融资的律师有说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1135.76, "end": 1137.72, "text": "就是你很多现在的资料中心的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1137.72, "end": 1138.74, "text": "这些贷款是按照", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1138.74, "end": 1139.54, "text": "就是已经签约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1139.54, "end": 1141.24, "text": "但是还没有开始抽钱的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11344226413302952, "no_speech_prob": 3.0555075830607237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4632152588555858 }, { "start": 1141.24, "end": 1142.68, "text": "这些租客的现金流去承诺", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1142.68, "end": 1143.56, "text": "白话说就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1143.56, "end": 1145.4, "text": "Maggie答应要给我钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1145.4, "end": 1146.44, "text": "她可能两年后要给我", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1146.44, "end": 1147.4, "text": "我现在先找别人说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1147.4, "end": 1149.56, "text": "你看Maggie要给我钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1149.56, "end": 1149.96, "text": "对", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1149.96, "end": 1150.48, "text": "然后我就说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1150.48, "end": 1151.52, "text": "对Maggie是好客户", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1151.52, "end": 1152.12, "text": "我给你钱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1152.12, "end": 1154.84, "text": "对就是你银行看的那一份租约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1154.84, "end": 1155.76, "text": "你拨了款", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1155.76, "end": 1157.6, "text": "但是你的租客还没有搬进来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1157.6, "end": 1159.84, "text": "他也还没有付过一次的房租", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1159.84, "end": 1161.0, "text": "所以你的签约日", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1161.0, "end": 1162.8, "text": "不等于说你的收钱日", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1162.8, "end": 1164.72, "text": "所以这个防火墙的质量", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1164.72, "end": 1165.8, "text": "我觉得大家要想一下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1165.8, "end": 1166.56, "text": "哈有墙吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1166.56, "end": 1166.96, "text": "有啦", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1166.96, "end": 1167.72, "text": "这样吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1167.72, "end": 1169.0, "text": "那我要讲更危险的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1169.0, "end": 1170.12, "text": "哈哈哈", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1170.12, "end": 1170.96, "text": "还有", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18639245363745358, "no_speech_prob": 2.1362021526694086e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4219653179190752 }, { "start": 1171.24, "end": 1174.78, "text": "對 就是我前面有說就是你有無罪所權", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1174.78, "end": 1176.58, "text": "所以你的債主不能來抄家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1176.58, "end": 1177.94, "text": "就是聽起來比較安全", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1177.94, "end": 1179.94, "text": "就是雖然他那個牆很薄", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1179.94, "end": 1181.08, "text": "但還是有牆", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1181.08, "end": 1182.48, "text": "但這邊不是這樣", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1182.48, "end": 1183.28, "text": "因為你要想", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1183.28, "end": 1185.18, "text": "如果說今天這招防火牆真的有效", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1185.18, "end": 1187.58, "text": "那為什麼還要有別人來幫你簽這個保證書", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1187.58, "end": 1188.2, "text": "就為什麼", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1188.2, "end": 1190.3, "text": "為什麼還要再找大哥", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1190.3, "end": 1191.5, "text": "對啊 好 我先講", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1191.5, "end": 1193.7, "text": "就是現在的真實情況比較傾向這樣", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1193.7, "end": 1195.0, "text": "就是有四種情況", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1195.0, "end": 1196.5, "text": "第一種就是很多的案子", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1196.5, "end": 1198.4, "text": "他附了一張所謂的產值保證書", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1198.4, "end": 1200.54, "text": "就是這一批資產如果將來不值錢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.23730829259851477, "no_speech_prob": 2.400704635086015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4745762711864407 }, { "start": 1200.54, "end": 1204.04, "text": "我保證會以多少的殘值殘餘價值買回", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1204.04, "end": 1206.34, "text": "但是像是Meta的HyperM", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1206.34, "end": 1208.54, "text": "這個資料中心專案上面提供殘值保證", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1208.54, "end": 1211.44, "text": "涵蓋了前16年規模281美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1211.44, "end": 1212.24, "text": "很大的一個數字", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1212.24, "end": 1213.24, "text": "然後也保證很久", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1213.24, "end": 1214.74, "text": "我不知道他為什麼敢開這種支票", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1214.74, "end": 1216.24, "text": "保證殘值", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1216.24, "end": 1218.24, "text": "為了去消弭所謂的那個", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1218.24, "end": 1219.24, "text": "折舊的風險", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1219.24, "end": 1220.54, "text": "告訴你我保證會買", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1220.54, "end": 1222.04, "text": "老師我跟不到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1222.04, "end": 1223.54, "text": "殘值保證在哪一段", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1223.54, "end": 1224.54, "text": "誰跟誰", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1224.54, "end": 1225.44, "text": "你看Meta在哪", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1225.44, "end": 1226.84, "text": "Meta是蓋樓的那個包住公", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1226.84, "end": 1228.14, "text": "所以是蓋樓的那個人", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1228.14, "end": 1229.14, "text": "他跟二房東講", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21000193586253157, "no_speech_prob": 3.036172355197486e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3558823529411765 }, { "start": 1229.14, "end": 1230.68, "text": "在二手上有個殘值保證", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1230.68, "end": 1232.08, "text": "對 然後還有另外一個", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1232.08, "end": 1234.64, "text": "就是從今年開始NVR開幹這一次", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1234.64, "end": 1236.48, "text": "就是他對部分客戶提供了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1236.48, "end": 1237.94, "text": "六年的最低應收保證", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1237.94, "end": 1240.78, "text": "然後跟他在自己最新的融資平台裡面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1240.78, "end": 1243.72, "text": "就是提供最高25%的殘值保證", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1243.72, "end": 1245.7, "text": "就是你賣GPU的那間公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1245.7, "end": 1248.36, "text": "自己下場替GPU這個東西的殘值倍數", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1248.36, "end": 1250.46, "text": "就是有點像我賣賓士", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1250.46, "end": 1252.14, "text": "你跟他說我二手回收", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1252.14, "end": 1253.1, "text": "二手回收多少錢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1253.1, "end": 1254.6, "text": "就是特斯拉幹過一樣的事情", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1254.6, "end": 1257.04, "text": "這特斯拉的那個舊車換新車啦", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1257.04, "end": 1257.54, "text": "對", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22062905629475912, "no_speech_prob": 2.6377417611245235e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4169184290030212 }, { "start": 1257.54, "end": 1259.48, "text": "特斯拉舊車換新車可能還有50%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1259.48, "end": 1260.3, "text": "這個是25%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1260.3, "end": 1260.98, "text": "剩25%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1260.98, "end": 1261.34, "text": "嗯", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1261.34, "end": 1261.84, "text": "那特斯拉很簡單", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1261.84, "end": 1262.98, "text": "殘值25%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1262.98, "end": 1264.24, "text": "我真的覺得他最近有點", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1264.24, "end": 1265.04, "text": "Bad bad", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1265.04, "end": 1265.68, "text": "You bad bad", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1265.68, "end": 1266.04, "text": "好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1266.04, "end": 1267.14, "text": "現在的狀況還有第二種", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1267.14, "end": 1270.08, "text": "就是你的母公司通常是你唯一的房客", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1270.08, "end": 1272.08, "text": "就是他承諾長期租下來", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1272.08, "end": 1273.78, "text": "然後也承諾會照付不易", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1273.78, "end": 1275.8, "text": "甚至還提供所謂的信用擔保", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1275.8, "end": 1276.96, "text": "但是這個東西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1276.96, "end": 1278.52, "text": "就是法律上他只是股東", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1278.52, "end": 1281.54, "text": "經濟上他是那一棟房子唯一的收入來源", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1281.54, "end": 1283.54, "text": "這個集中度有點太風險了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1283.54, "end": 1284.44, "text": "第三個狀況就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1284.44, "end": 1286.0, "text": "呃如果他真的出事了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1286.0, "end": 1287.04, "text": "法院不一定會買單", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2525229655521017, "no_speech_prob": 2.327135706359229e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348051948051948 }, { "start": 1287.04, "end": 1287.5, "text": "什么意思", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1287.5, "end": 1288.58, "text": "就是因为现在有一些", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1288.58, "end": 1290.06, "text": "律师事务所已经有看到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1290.06, "end": 1291.16, "text": "如果说你的母公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1291.16, "end": 1292.4, "text": "透过保证租约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1292.4, "end": 1293.58, "text": "跟营印控制", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1293.58, "end": 1294.42, "text": "实质主导的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1294.42, "end": 1295.68, "text": "这间新的公司的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1295.68, "end": 1296.34, "text": "说一切", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1296.34, "end": 1297.9, "text": "你的债权人可能会主张说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1297.9, "end": 1299.2, "text": "这根本就是同一间公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1299.2, "end": 1300.08, "text": "所以他会要求", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1300.08, "end": 1300.9, "text": "所谓的穿透赔偿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1300.9, "end": 1301.44, "text": "把他说就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1301.44, "end": 1302.96, "text": "你把公司明面上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1302.96, "end": 1303.82, "text": "看起来是分开的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1303.82, "end": 1305.04, "text": "但是这个防火墙", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1305.04, "end": 1306.34, "text": "就是我刚刚我们刚说的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1306.34, "end": 1307.4, "text": "就是指门", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1307.4, "end": 1308.2, "text": "所以他可能会这样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1308.2, "end": 1308.82, "text": "穿透过去的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1308.82, "end": 1310.04, "text": "这个风险没有消失", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1310.04, "end": 1311.0, "text": "他只是换了一个", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1311.0, "end": 1312.4, "text": "现在看起来不太起眼的地方", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1312.4, "end": 1312.94, "text": "先待着而已", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1312.94, "end": 1313.82, "text": "好 再来就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15117489284939237, "no_speech_prob": 2.336627245858036e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4650537634408602 }, { "start": 1313.82, "end": 1314.72, "text": "GPU折旧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1314.72, "end": 1316.82, "text": "这个东西我们讲好几次了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1316.82, "end": 1317.88, "text": "它算是整个估算里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1317.88, "end": 1319.32, "text": "就是牵引法动全身的东西", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1319.32, "end": 1320.1, "text": "所以我要讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1320.1, "end": 1321.72, "text": "这是跟房地产那是区别在哪", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1321.72, "end": 1323.4, "text": "如果说你今天的抵押品是土地", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1323.4, "end": 1323.98, "text": "你没有问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1323.98, "end": 1324.88, "text": "因为土地不会坏掉", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1324.88, "end": 1326.42, "text": "但如果说你今天的抵押品是GPU", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1326.42, "end": 1328.64, "text": "现在各大云端巨头的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1328.64, "end": 1331.2, "text": "这些韧列的使用年薪相差很大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1331.2, "end": 1332.0, "text": "Amazon的话是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1332.0, "end": 1332.68, "text": "现在是5年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1332.68, "end": 1333.86, "text": "Meta的话是5.5年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1333.86, "end": 1335.3, "text": "微软和Google的话是维持6年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1335.3, "end": 1337.46, "text": "现场工程估算应该是3年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1337.46, "end": 1337.86, "text": "这是一个", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1337.86, "end": 1338.64, "text": "还有再来就是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1338.64, "end": 1339.7, "text": "现在的租金数据", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1339.7, "end": 1340.56, "text": "其实也是打架的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.141487062242296, "no_speech_prob": 3.4192530751209205e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.370843989769821 }, { "start": 1340.56, "end": 1342.62, "text": "就是H100的租金從2024年初", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1342.62, "end": 1344.06, "text": "是每小時7到10美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1344.06, "end": 1346.2, "text": "跌到2025年底是2到4美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1346.2, "end": 1347.6, "text": "那2026年又回升了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1347.6, "end": 1349.76, "text": "現在的價格是2美元到3美元之間", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1349.76, "end": 1352.0, "text": "所以這個回升現在算是利多啦", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1352.0, "end": 1352.8, "text": "我覺得還算利多", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1352.8, "end": 1355.3, "text": "那目前的評級機構也是吵得非常兇", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1355.3, "end": 1357.4, "text": "就是標普是拒絕給AAA", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1357.4, "end": 1359.28, "text": "那其他什麼目的啊 惠譽啊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1359.28, "end": 1360.32, "text": "直接是給AAA的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1360.32, "end": 1362.12, "text": "所以我覺得看標普比較準一點", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1362.12, "end": 1363.04, "text": "他上次給他", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1363.04, "end": 1363.68, "text": "對就他", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1363.68, "end": 1364.76, "text": "所以他這是乖一點嗎", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1364.76, "end": 1365.56, "text": "而且還比較嚴格啊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1365.56, "end": 1366.22, "text": "哈哈哈哈", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1366.22, "end": 1367.38, "text": "那這是乖一點嗎 拜託", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1367.38, "end": 1369.52, "text": "可是這也是其他人還給到AAA", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1369.52, "end": 1370.3, "text": "對 我不能理解", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2681062425885882, "no_speech_prob": 2.4780790267020514e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5013850415512466 }, { "start": 1370.3, "end": 1372.24, "text": "我不等为什么Moodie可以给到AA", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1372.24, "end": 1373.62, "text": "还有还没讲完", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1373.62, "end": 1374.92, "text": "风险还没讲完", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1374.92, "end": 1375.84, "text": "心好痛", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1375.84, "end": 1377.8, "text": "我们场外飘出一句心好痛", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1377.8, "end": 1378.74, "text": "没有 先等等", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1378.74, "end": 1379.36, "text": "先等等", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1379.36, "end": 1380.14, "text": "先等等", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1380.14, "end": 1381.18, "text": "先听完", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1381.18, "end": 1383.4, "text": "然后再一个就是现在债务这件事情", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1383.4, "end": 1385.02, "text": "开始往下蔓延了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1385.02, "end": 1387.48, "text": "2000年这个债主要是压在电信商", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1387.48, "end": 1389.28, "text": "他自己本身的制裁负债表上面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1389.28, "end": 1390.98, "text": "所以你基本上只要看了财报", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1390.98, "end": 1391.98, "text": "你就会看得到他的债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1391.98, "end": 1394.24, "text": "那现在这个债正在往外搬", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1394.24, "end": 1396.7, "text": "就是搬到了资料中心的开发商", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1396.7, "end": 1398.38, "text": "私募基金里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1398.38, "end": 1400.24, "text": "电力专案融资里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25339124630659055, "no_speech_prob": 1.7919332684357414e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1400.24, "end": 1402.5, "text": "算地租印这些业者身上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1402.5, "end": 1403.64, "text": "所以它蔓延出去了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1403.64, "end": 1404.84, "text": "它不会只留在他身上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1404.84, "end": 1406.78, "text": "所以你看这五大巨头的财报", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1406.78, "end": 1408.94, "text": "你会低估了整个系统的杠杆", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1408.94, "end": 1410.0, "text": "因为现在的规模有多大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1410.0, "end": 1411.5, "text": "就是META的那个资料中心", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1411.5, "end": 1413.84, "text": "它有跟Bluol的合资公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1413.84, "end": 1416.88, "text": "发行了一个272亿美元的优先担保债券", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1416.88, "end": 1418.1, "text": "票息是6.5%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1418.1, "end": 1418.94, "text": "6.58%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1418.94, "end": 1420.98, "text": "然后2049年才到期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1420.98, "end": 1422.04, "text": "标普给A家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1422.04, "end": 1426.04, "text": "他很有自信我可以撑到2049年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1426.04, "end": 1427.5, "text": "然后目的有算过", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1427.5, "end": 1428.64, "text": "就是现在五大云厂商", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15593215823173523, "no_speech_prob": 2.721398800753505e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806 }, { "start": 1428.64, "end": 1430.9, "text": "已经签约到还没起租的租赁合约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16396960505732783, "no_speech_prob": 1.373323330056131e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0393258426966292 }, { "start": 1430.9, "end": 1432.88, "text": "大概合计是6620亿美元", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16396960505732783, "no_speech_prob": 1.373323330056131e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0393258426966292 }, { "start": 1432.88, "end": 1435.74, "text": "所以等于是他们调整后的债务的113%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16396960505732783, "no_speech_prob": 1.373323330056131e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0393258426966292 }, { "start": 1435.74, "end": 1438.14, "text": "还记得开头我说NVIDIA的那个新闻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16396960505732783, "no_speech_prob": 1.373323330056131e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0393258426966292 }, { "start": 1438.14, "end": 1439.98, "text": "就是他开始要主旧了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16396960505732783, "no_speech_prob": 1.373323330056131e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.0393258426966292 }, { "start": 1450.2, "end": 1451.96, "text": "就是 不能只有你們玩我也要玩", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1451.96, "end": 1454.2, "text": "對 所以他把私募信貸的巨頭也拉進來了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1454.2, "end": 1456.9, "text": "所以他這是開的是五千億美元的第三方資本引進", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1456.9, "end": 1458.0, "text": "客觀事實就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1458.0, "end": 1459.9, "text": "這套玩法從最頂尖的這五家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1459.9, "end": 1462.4, "text": "蔓延到了體質跟這五家有落差的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1462.4, "end": 1464.4, "text": "中小溪其他的算力的業者", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1464.4, "end": 1467.6, "text": "因為這幾家他這次拉進來這幾家私募信貸的巨頭", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1467.6, "end": 1469.1, "text": "他們就是放貸很靈活嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1469.1, "end": 1470.0, "text": "速度很快嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1470.0, "end": 1472.5, "text": "然後也比較支持創新的產業嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1472.5, "end": 1474.8, "text": "但是他就是透明度低槓桿也高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1474.8, "end": 1477.8, "text": "然後也沒有銀行必須要做壓力設施的這個條件", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1477.8, "end": 1479.2, "text": "對 這是銀行的放款哦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18493840366743186, "no_speech_prob": 2.606947123451331e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4722955145118735 }, { "start": 1479.2, "end": 1480.44, "text": "對所以就是沒有人知道", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1480.44, "end": 1481.7, "text": "這裡面到底有多少雷包", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1481.7, "end": 1484.04, "text": "可是好消息是現在這六大巨頭", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1484.04, "end": 1485.34, "text": "是木星代的這六大巨頭", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1485.34, "end": 1486.14, "text": "錢是很多啦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1486.14, "end": 1487.64, "text": "只是他們沒有足夠好的產品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1487.64, "end": 1488.84, "text": "去吸引別人來買他的東西", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1488.84, "end": 1491.04, "text": "欸對但是他2025年報過", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1491.04, "end": 1492.24, "text": "也是這幾家喔", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1492.24, "end": 1494.04, "text": "回過頭來就是講完風險", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1494.04, "end": 1494.98, "text": "我們要回來看嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1494.98, "end": 1497.98, "text": "就是那這些收入到底有多少是真的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1497.98, "end": 1499.06, "text": "就是Google跟Amazon", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1499.06, "end": 1500.46, "text": "現在自由現金都是轉付了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1500.46, "end": 1503.12, "text": "然後之前的AI的基礎建設", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1503.12, "end": 1505.46, "text": "主要是靠著他現在主業的現金來撐", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1505.46, "end": 1506.3, "text": "就是所謂的廣告", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1506.3, "end": 1507.76, "text": "雲端軟體跟電商的抽成", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20265506842197517, "no_speech_prob": 2.6587910692543737e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.356060606060606 }, { "start": 1507.76, "end": 1509.76, "text": "那从今年开始会越来越像", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1509.76, "end": 1511.36, "text": "就是靠融资去驱动的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1511.36, "end": 1512.36, "text": "所以这件事情的麻烦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1512.36, "end": 1513.96, "text": "不是说他的杠杆这件事情而已", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1513.96, "end": 1516.52, "text": "而是他牵扯他自己收入的真实性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1516.52, "end": 1518.36, "text": "就是因为如果说你的收入不真实", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1518.36, "end": 1520.36, "text": "你会反过头来增加你杠杆的风险", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1520.36, "end": 1521.96, "text": "对 这边的钱很多时候", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1521.96, "end": 1523.36, "text": "其实没有真的付出去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1523.36, "end": 1525.26, "text": "因为现在这些顶尖的AI模型公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1525.26, "end": 1526.86, "text": "如果说他真的只靠股权融资", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1526.86, "end": 1529.16, "text": "他恐怕连他的训练费都付不出来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1529.16, "end": 1531.46, "text": "所以现实中他们付给云端厂商的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1531.46, "end": 1533.56, "text": "很大一部分不是现金是记账", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1533.56, "end": 1534.16, "text": "我收的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1534.16, "end": 1534.76, "text": "记墙上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1534.76, "end": 1535.32, "text": "用抵消", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1535.32, "end": 1535.86, "text": "什么意思呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12270296732584636, "no_speech_prob": 2.54679090316845e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4540816326530612 }, { "start": 1535.86, "end": 1537.02, "text": "就是它抵銷方式有兩個", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1537.02, "end": 1539.6, "text": "就是一部分是雲廠商的投資款", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1539.6, "end": 1541.4, "text": "但是所謂的投資也不是給真錢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1541.4, "end": 1543.56, "text": "而是把算力折就折成投資", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1543.56, "end": 1545.7, "text": "那一部分是用所謂的算力抵用券", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1545.7, "end": 1547.8, "text": "就是雲廠商他自己也是AI的使用大戶", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1547.8, "end": 1549.64, "text": "所以他付給這個模型公司的分層", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1549.64, "end": 1551.18, "text": "用抵用券去對銷完了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1551.18, "end": 1553.72, "text": "所以剩下的才是我們現在看到的所謂的AR", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1553.72, "end": 1555.22, "text": "好聽下一個複雜度為我解釋", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1555.22, "end": 1556.58, "text": "台灣人已經聽懂我下一張", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1556.58, "end": 1557.52, "text": "哈囉我是Maggie", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1557.52, "end": 1559.32, "text": "每週的公開會員一小時直播", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1559.32, "end": 1560.72, "text": "覺得聽得不夠過癮嗎?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1560.72, "end": 1561.26, "text": "沒問題", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1561.26, "end": 1563.16, "text": "我們在每週四的公開直播後", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17023683336046008, "no_speech_prob": 2.65790098263885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482233502538071 }, { "start": 1563.16, "end": 1564.92, "text": "還會有一個小時的會員直播", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1564.92, "end": 1565.96, "text": "在會員直播裡面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1565.96, "end": 1567.4, "text": "我們會有更深入的解析喔", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1567.4, "end": 1568.66, "text": "每週直播結束後", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1568.66, "end": 1569.76, "text": "還會有水堂卡", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1569.76, "end": 1571.56, "text": "那會有機會解鎖小獎勵喔", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1571.56, "end": 1572.36, "text": "會員直播裡面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1572.36, "end": 1574.0, "text": "我們會講到更深入的個股分析", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1574.0, "end": 1575.14, "text": "我們近期的配置更新", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1575.14, "end": 1576.7, "text": "或是新進出場的股票", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1576.7, "end": 1579.08, "text": "我轉倉的其中一個標的是這個", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1579.08, "end": 1579.68, "text": "喔你直接講喔", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1579.68, "end": 1580.74, "text": "我本來講說我要問你", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1580.74, "end": 1582.58, "text": "團隊最近觀察的公司或加密貨幣", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1582.58, "end": 1584.74, "text": "甚至是一些對外不可告人的市場秘辛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1584.74, "end": 1585.64, "text": "就點開盤之後呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1585.64, "end": 1587.56, "text": "還會做一個很噁心的抖動", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1587.56, "end": 1588.56, "text": "然後在那個抖動期間呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1588.56, "end": 1589.22, "text": "其實就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2133461168077257, "no_speech_prob": 2.6484200249532464e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5449591280653951 }, { "start": 1589.22, "end": 1593.22, "text": "這些分析我相信市場上大多數是找不到的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1593.22, "end": 1595.62, "text": "而我們也有信心會員的內容一定是很完整的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1595.62, "end": 1597.32, "text": "如果遇到內容害過健身怎麼辦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1597.32, "end": 1600.22, "text": "沒關係我們還有主持人會幫忙白話或是新手翻譯", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1600.22, "end": 1601.52, "text": "大家知道CPI是什麼吧?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1601.52, "end": 1602.22, "text": "不知道", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1602.22, "end": 1603.72, "text": "消費者物價指數就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1603.72, "end": 1605.42, "text": "你平常買的這個", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1605.42, "end": 1607.32, "text": "而且會員直播的提問我們都會記錄下來", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1607.32, "end": 1609.02, "text": "日後會給大家詳細的回覆", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1609.02, "end": 1611.12, "text": "如果還沒有訂閱的朋友可以直接點擊下方", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1611.12, "end": 1612.32, "text": "加入我們的YouTube會員", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1612.32, "end": 1614.62, "text": "每個月只要450台幣大約15美金", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1614.62, "end": 1616.82, "text": "稍後就可以跟我們一起參與後續的會員直播啦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1616.82, "end": 1619.02, "text": "大家有進什麼蛋塔工廠嗎?", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.20449032337207512, "no_speech_prob": 3.359695160964904e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3514739229024944 }, { "start": 1619.02, "end": 1620.02, "text": "蛋挞狂热", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1620.02, "end": 1620.98, "text": "就年轻一点可能不知道", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1620.98, "end": 1623.26, "text": "但是我用手摇引来加盟", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1623.26, "end": 1624.3, "text": "这个事情你应该就可以懂", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1624.3, "end": 1626.22, "text": "这个状况就有点像是你今年一年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1626.22, "end": 1628.3, "text": "开200家手摇引料店的品牌", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1628.3, "end": 1629.78, "text": "你的总部财报会非常的漂亮", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1629.78, "end": 1630.06, "text": "对不对", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1630.06, "end": 1630.94, "text": "因为你的加盟金", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1630.94, "end": 1632.22, "text": "你的机器设备你的原物料", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1632.22, "end": 1633.1, "text": "你每开一家新店", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1633.1, "end": 1634.38, "text": "基本上都是一笔新的营收", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1634.38, "end": 1634.7, "text": "对", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1634.7, "end": 1636.1, "text": "所以你的开店", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1636.1, "end": 1637.98, "text": "开店数的那个曲线是一路往上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1637.98, "end": 1639.26, "text": "但是如果你今天去问一句", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1639.26, "end": 1640.98, "text": "你这200家店的钱是哪里来的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1640.98, "end": 1643.94, "text": "有一部分是总部直接借给加盟组的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1643.94, "end": 1645.58, "text": "那一部分是用所谓的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1663994393697599, "no_speech_prob": 3.107353610531938e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4916201117318435 }, { "start": 1645.58, "end": 1649.04, "text": "设备折抵加盟金的方式去做掉", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1649.04, "end": 1651.18, "text": "所以根本没有现金真实的往来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1651.18, "end": 1652.64, "text": "所以加盟组他一旦签了约", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1652.64, "end": 1654.34, "text": "你的原料就只能跟总部进", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1654.34, "end": 1655.94, "text": "所以总部的营收会一直漂亮下去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1655.94, "end": 1657.38, "text": "因为只要他愿意借钱出去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1657.38, "end": 1659.18, "text": "愿意有人继续开新店", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1659.18, "end": 1660.52, "text": "他就会一直营收漂亮", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1660.52, "end": 1662.04, "text": "那所以真正该问题就是一个", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1662.04, "end": 1663.04, "text": "你这200家店", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1663.04, "end": 1664.72, "text": "真正卖给客人的杯数", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1664.72, "end": 1665.74, "text": "有没有跟着成长", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1665.74, "end": 1666.6, "text": "这就是所谓的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1666.6, "end": 1668.78, "text": "用融资来创造需求的方式", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1668.78, "end": 1670.54, "text": "所以你从外面来看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1670.54, "end": 1671.44, "text": "就是你这条链", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1671.44, "end": 1673.18, "text": "看起来就是大家歌舞平生", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1673.18, "end": 1674.0, "text": "非常的繁荣", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07982759929838634, "no_speech_prob": 2.6689093643450512e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4491525423728813 }, { "start": 1674.0, "end": 1676.0, "text": "就是你的雲端廠商增加資本開支", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1676.0, "end": 1677.08, "text": "買GPU蓋記憶法", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1677.08, "end": 1678.6, "text": "然後產生AI的服務收入", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1678.6, "end": 1680.14, "text": "然後AI公司在買雲服務", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1680.14, "end": 1681.04, "text": "然後形成新的收入", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1681.04, "end": 1682.0, "text": "然後墨型廠再從", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1682.0, "end": 1683.68, "text": "墨型廠到雲端廠", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1683.68, "end": 1687.06, "text": "然後從資料中心到第三方算力租借的業者", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1687.06, "end": 1688.84, "text": "然後從晶片廠到上游供應鏈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1688.84, "end": 1690.58, "text": "這些訂單看起來都非常的熱鬧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1690.58, "end": 1692.22, "text": "但是實際上就是你欠我的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1692.22, "end": 1693.32, "text": "我欠他的 他欠你的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1693.32, "end": 1694.56, "text": "大家可以稍微去看", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1694.56, "end": 1695.82, "text": "就是我假如在NVIDIA", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1695.82, "end": 1698.66, "text": "我借錢給我底下的廠商來買我的晶片", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1698.66, "end": 1700.06, "text": "所以看起來大家的財報都很好", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1700.06, "end": 1701.26, "text": "我有買到東西", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1701.26, "end": 1702.56, "text": "然後我有收入我有賺錢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19961061265733507, "no_speech_prob": 2.829772700885247e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4734042553191489 }, { "start": 1702.56, "end": 1704.4, "text": "但是这个钱其实是最上人的借给下面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1704.4, "end": 1705.76, "text": "然后在中间的再借给下面的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1705.76, "end": 1707.1, "text": "然后大概签一签就这样绕一圈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1707.1, "end": 1708.4, "text": "所以刚刚Meggy讲的整个重点就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1708.4, "end": 1709.16, "text": "好你们这样绕", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1709.16, "end": 1710.06, "text": "没关系你们这样绕", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1710.06, "end": 1712.66, "text": "但外面到底有没有真的花钱来买你们的产品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1712.66, "end": 1713.22, "text": "买你们的服务", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1713.22, "end": 1714.3, "text": "那才是真正的重点", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1714.3, "end": 1716.2, "text": "如果没有的话这个绕到最后就会", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1716.2, "end": 1716.96, "text": "台湾蛋挞嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1716.96, "end": 1717.66, "text": "对下场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1717.66, "end": 1719.72, "text": "对这个东西其实这样的商业模式", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1719.72, "end": 1721.76, "text": "我们生活中就有了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1721.76, "end": 1722.36, "text": "台湾就有案例", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1722.36, "end": 1723.56, "text": "对就是有案例", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1723.56, "end": 1724.46, "text": "就是可以看出来吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1724.46, "end": 1726.36, "text": "所以讲白就是现在的AI的收入", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1726.36, "end": 1727.72, "text": "缺乏所谓的独立性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22467508951822918, "no_speech_prob": 3.719536137425372e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5307692307692307 }, { "start": 1727.72, "end": 1729.44, "text": "就是他不是从他AI的生态里面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1729.44, "end": 1730.22, "text": "自己长出来的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1730.22, "end": 1732.44, "text": "那到底什么才叫做真实的需求", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1732.44, "end": 1733.62, "text": "就是投资AI产业链", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1733.62, "end": 1735.1, "text": "这个东西你其实不能只看订单", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1735.1, "end": 1735.62, "text": "因为关键是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1735.62, "end": 1736.6, "text": "就是这些需求", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1736.6, "end": 1738.08, "text": "有多少是来自最终用户吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1738.08, "end": 1740.28, "text": "你有多少是来自产业内部的钱", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1740.28, "end": 1741.12, "text": "去转出来的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1741.12, "end": 1741.76, "text": "那后者", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1741.76, "end": 1743.24, "text": "我不会说它是一个假的需求", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1743.24, "end": 1744.5, "text": "但是这个需求要打折", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1744.5, "end": 1745.56, "text": "甚至打对折", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1745.56, "end": 1747.26, "text": "那真正的独立需求是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1747.26, "end": 1749.08, "text": "你要扣除云端厂商的质件啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1749.08, "end": 1749.8, "text": "一些投资啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1749.8, "end": 1750.72, "text": "算低预付款啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1750.72, "end": 1752.06, "text": "算低抵用券这些之后", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1752.06, "end": 1752.8, "text": "阿里亚达之后", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11340261671278212, "no_speech_prob": 2.3833596554667658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.461111111111111 }, { "start": 1752.8, "end": 1755.26, "text": "那些纯粹用现金流理付出来的钱收入啦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1755.26, "end": 1757.74, "text": "这些人才是真正愿意长期付钱的人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1757.74, "end": 1758.9, "text": "那现在问题就是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1758.9, "end": 1760.94, "text": "这个数字现在目前没有人可以统计出来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1760.94, "end": 1762.34, "text": "因为他真的太乱了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1762.34, "end": 1763.54, "text": "所以有一个替代指标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1763.54, "end": 1764.84, "text": "就是我前面讲那个加速度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1764.84, "end": 1766.4, "text": "就是现在因为现在资本快支", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1766.4, "end": 1767.34, "text": "你不管怎么砸嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1767.34, "end": 1769.7, "text": "你最多你只能推动的是速度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1769.7, "end": 1771.84, "text": "那你这个加速度要继续往上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1771.84, "end": 1772.96, "text": "一定是我刚说的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1772.96, "end": 1776.34, "text": "你这个内循环外面有多了新的力量进来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1776.34, "end": 1777.96, "text": "有额外的新增需求进来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1777.96, "end": 1779.7, "text": "有增增的进来加速度才上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1779.7, "end": 1781.5, "text": "对所以一定要新进来才会有加速度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1942437428694505, "no_speech_prob": 2.8411280272866435e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5454545454545454 }, { "start": 1781.5, "end": 1782.96, "text": "现在唯一能看的就是加速度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1782.96, "end": 1783.46, "text": "好来啦", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1783.46, "end": 1785.9, "text": "最后最后谁要扛债呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1785.9, "end": 1787.94, "text": "如果真的发生了系统性风险", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1787.94, "end": 1788.8, "text": "谁要还钱呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1788.8, "end": 1791.14, "text": "如果说你把AI的基础建设的债务", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1791.14, "end": 1792.68, "text": "你一层一层往下传导", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1792.68, "end": 1794.08, "text": "你会发现最后扛的人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1794.08, "end": 1795.64, "text": "跟我们一开始想的会不太一样", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1795.64, "end": 1796.72, "text": "因为一开始我们一定想说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1796.72, "end": 1798.92, "text": "那一定就是那五大云服务厂商嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1798.92, "end": 1799.56, "text": "但不是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1799.56, "end": 1801.36, "text": "因为第一层表面上的承担者", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1801.36, "end": 1803.12, "text": "就是所谓的AI模型跟云厂商", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1803.12, "end": 1803.98, "text": "因为这些都是巨无吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1803.98, "end": 1804.82, "text": "就很多人认为说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1804.82, "end": 1805.96, "text": "AI债务风险不大的原因", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1805.96, "end": 1807.6, "text": "也是因为他们之间有所谓的长期合约", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13996061537000867, "no_speech_prob": 2.3536091478537635e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5041551246537397 }, { "start": 1807.6, "end": 1809.84, "text": "他承諾未來10年可能會採購多少算力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1809.84, "end": 1811.74, "text": "那會計上這個東西不會顯示為債務", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1811.74, "end": 1814.26, "text": "實際上就是拿未來的現金流去做擔保", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1814.26, "end": 1816.84, "text": "那第二層就是越來越多的實際借款人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1816.84, "end": 1818.6, "text": "其實是資料中心的專案的公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1818.6, "end": 1820.74, "text": "就是他會成立一家特殊目的公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1820.74, "end": 1822.9, "text": "負責買地、負責建設、負責承擔債務", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1822.9, "end": 1825.84, "text": "那收入主要來自這些模型公司的長期租金費", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1825.84, "end": 1827.16, "text": "法律上債在這家公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1827.16, "end": 1828.36, "text": "但是雲場上看不到", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1828.36, "end": 1830.64, "text": "我們其實在Google財報那集解析的時候說", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1830.64, "end": 1833.8, "text": "還有他的債其實藏在他額外的一個小公司上面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1833.8, "end": 1834.96, "text": "其實就Mate剛剛前面講的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16511206732855901, "no_speech_prob": 3.1694053631570185e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3785714285714286 }, { "start": 1834.96, "end": 1835.92, "text": "他母公司Google", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1835.92, "end": 1838.02, "text": "當然開錢他子公司去做這些借貸", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1838.02, "end": 1838.8, "text": "跟這些操作", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1838.8, "end": 1839.7, "text": "你們兩個要併在一起", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1839.7, "end": 1841.7, "text": "對 就是你可以從Google那一集", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1841.7, "end": 1842.96, "text": "再看到這一集", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1842.96, "end": 1844.1, "text": "你應該懂我在講什麼", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1844.1, "end": 1845.2, "text": "好 那第三層", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1845.2, "end": 1847.5, "text": "就是早期的債權在銀行裡面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1847.5, "end": 1850.7, "text": "就是很多人從銀行的財務去判狀況去判斷", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1850.7, "end": 1853.22, "text": "AI的融資有沒有在大規模的金融風險", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1853.22, "end": 1856.78, "text": "對 但是銀行他通常不會長期持有全部風險", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1856.78, "end": 1858.68, "text": "他會打包成證券化商品賣出去", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1858.68, "end": 1859.86, "text": "就跟其實08年一樣", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1859.86, "end": 1861.86, "text": "就是你傳統銀行的財務看起來很安全", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1861.86, "end": 1863.96, "text": "不代表說社會上沒有所謂的金融險", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19261296590169272, "no_speech_prob": 2.6163892233310726e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3709273182957393 }, { "start": 1863.96, "end": 1866.96, "text": "第四层就是所谓的真正的最终的债权人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1866.96, "end": 1868.04, "text": "是机构投资者", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1868.04, "end": 1869.34, "text": "就是你证券化商品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1869.34, "end": 1871.9, "text": "其实是卖给所谓的退休金和保险公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1871.9, "end": 1874.42, "text": "因为他们对于这种长期现金流的投资基债券", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1874.42, "end": 1875.7, "text": "他们的配置需求非常的高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1875.7, "end": 1878.06, "text": "那当然还有中央公司在后面就是帮他们背数", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1878.06, "end": 1880.7, "text": "所以最后实际承担人其实是一般的投资人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1880.7, "end": 1882.52, "text": "因为是我们去买的这些商品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1882.52, "end": 1884.38, "text": "因为是你的退休金去买的这些商品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1884.38, "end": 1886.6, "text": "是你的保险公司帮你去买的这些商品", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1886.6, "end": 1888.8, "text": "所以你的保单跟你的退休金可能已经在里面", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1888.8, "end": 1889.56, "text": "只是你不知道而已", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08173329671223958, "no_speech_prob": 2.363532113081046e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.675 }, { "start": 1889.56, "end": 1893.66, "text": "好 那我们就来看就是现在最脆弱的地方在哪", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1893.66, "end": 1895.16, "text": "就我刚刚其实对外的时候有讲到", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1895.16, "end": 1897.26, "text": "就是谁会先最早感受到压力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1897.26, "end": 1898.52, "text": "跟谁出事真的会最惨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1898.52, "end": 1900.58, "text": "其实最早承压的应该会是AI的应用", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1900.58, "end": 1901.78, "text": "跟一些小型的心算公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1901.78, "end": 1903.38, "text": "因为算力会越来越来越贵", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1903.38, "end": 1905.1, "text": "那再来是他竞争激烈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1905.1, "end": 1906.62, "text": "那收入可能会低于成本", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1906.62, "end": 1907.6, "text": "虽然他成长很快", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1907.6, "end": 1910.72, "text": "但是基本上他的客户只要砍掉他的AI运算", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1910.72, "end": 1912.66, "text": "或者是他的token去打他价格战", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1912.66, "end": 1913.86, "text": "那这些公司会死得最快", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1913.86, "end": 1916.52, "text": "那再来是资料中心的营运商", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1916.52, "end": 1917.76, "text": "因为他的资产非常的重", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1917.76, "end": 1918.66, "text": "他负债率很高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11538231589577415, "no_speech_prob": 2.16351346560284e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3964646464646464 }, { "start": 1918.66, "end": 1920.0, "text": "他收入会依赖少数大人", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.32724822362264, "no_speech_prob": 4.9508981983525935e-12, "compression_ratio": 0.7317073170731707 }, { "start": 1920.0, "end": 1932.0, "text": "那再來是資料中心的營運商。因為他的資產非常的重,他負債率很高,他收入會依賴少數大客戶。然後同時GPU會加速折舊。那這些大客戶開始減少採購啊,或者是他空置率一旦上升的話,這些新一輪的融資可能會拿不到錢。那他就會開始陷入債務危機的這個循環裡面。", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1465478433145059, "no_speech_prob": 9.988293178664343e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3759791122715406 }, { "start": 1932.0, "end": 1935.14, "text": "他这个会比较接近就是所谓的房地产开发商的那个状态", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1935.14, "end": 1937.4, "text": "但是最危险的其实还不是这两个", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1937.4, "end": 1938.6, "text": "最危险的就是像", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1938.6, "end": 1939.2, "text": "我点名了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1939.2, "end": 1940.6, "text": "就是Corewith这样的公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1940.6, "end": 1943.9, "text": "就是他是高杠杆的第三方GPU租赁的公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1943.9, "end": 1946.1, "text": "就是有我们之前讲过二房东的角色", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1946.1, "end": 1948.0, "text": "对因为你技术包装再好", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1948.0, "end": 1949.9, "text": "或者是你的核心商业的模式", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1949.9, "end": 1952.1, "text": "就是大量买GPU去做出租嘛", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1952.1, "end": 1954.2, "text": "那他现在赚的钱就不是价差", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1954.2, "end": 1956.1, "text": "还有所谓的算力的溢价", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1956.1, "end": 1957.6, "text": "那但是他的杠杆非常的高", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1957.6, "end": 1960.4, "text": "就是他现在的债务股本比是13.8", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1960.4, "end": 1960.7, "text": "对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14356083545869994, "no_speech_prob": 2.1276718234486403e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3716577540106951 }, { "start": 1960.7, "end": 1963.84, "text": "然后它的调整后的营业利润率是指引给的是8%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1963.84, "end": 1966.04, "text": "然后原低于长期目标25%到30%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1966.04, "end": 1968.64, "text": "而且它的合约基本上已经全部抵出去了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1968.64, "end": 1970.9, "text": "所以一旦它的收入成长低于预期", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1970.9, "end": 1973.0, "text": "或者是低于GPU折旧的速度", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1973.0, "end": 1975.46, "text": "它的资产减值的这个压力会很快的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1975.46, "end": 1977.46, "text": "把它的资产负载代表给压垮", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1977.46, "end": 1980.3, "text": "对那反而像是无大的云厂商跟NVIDIA", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1980.3, "end": 1983.4, "text": "它反而是这条链上面比较有承重能力的公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1983.4, "end": 1984.86, "text": "因为它的资产负载表比较强", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1984.86, "end": 1985.74, "text": "它的客户也比较多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1985.74, "end": 1988.0, "text": "AI只是它是现在云业务的一部分", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13224095662434895, "no_speech_prob": 2.0144363607754734e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3615384615384616 }, { "start": 1988.0, "end": 1990.08, "text": "囤人GPU就算AI需求下降", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 1990.08, "end": 1991.46, "text": "它也还是可以拿回去", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 1991.46, "end": 1993.58, "text": "跑它自己本身的运的运算", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 1993.58, "end": 1994.86, "text": "所以他们这些公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 1994.86, "end": 1996.72, "text": "反而比较容易做的事情是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 1996.72, "end": 1998.1, "text": "它的估值会重复", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 1998.1, "end": 2000.02, "text": "可是这一次如果说是从债务上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2000.02, "end": 2001.74, "text": "这边爆发的估值重复", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2001.74, "end": 2003.92, "text": "应该折个三成到五成", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2003.92, "end": 2005.66, "text": "我觉得也是有概率会发生", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2005.66, "end": 2008.58, "text": "那有一支要另外单独拎出来讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2008.58, "end": 2009.18, "text": "就是Oracle", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2009.18, "end": 2010.7, "text": "因为它是这一轮扩张里面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2010.7, "end": 2011.92, "text": "相对激进的公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2011.92, "end": 2014.56, "text": "它现在还本复习率是48%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2014.56, "end": 2015.34, "text": "所以它的体质", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2015.34, "end": 2016.9, "text": "比较接近重资产的地产公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12033618754477957, "no_speech_prob": 1.8557036116084724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991913746630728 }, { "start": 2016.9, "end": 2018.94, "text": "所以他也是要稍微注意一下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2018.94, "end": 2021.04, "text": "那再来就是最上层的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2021.04, "end": 2022.12, "text": "就是所谓的AI模型公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2022.12, "end": 2023.42, "text": "就是OpenAI跟Enthropic", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2023.42, "end": 2025.64, "text": "就是他们的融资是以股权为主", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2025.64, "end": 2026.94, "text": "还没有到硬性的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2026.94, "end": 2029.1, "text": "就是硬性到齐的债务的方式融资", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2029.1, "end": 2030.62, "text": "如果说他没有上市", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2030.62, "end": 2031.84, "text": "反而相对是安全的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2031.84, "end": 2033.64, "text": "因为Enthropic现在的收入有80%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2033.64, "end": 2034.54, "text": "是来自企业客户", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2034.54, "end": 2035.84, "text": "这些客户的黏作性比较强", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2035.84, "end": 2036.56, "text": "收入也比较稳定", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2036.56, "end": 2037.58, "text": "相比之下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2037.58, "end": 2039.18, "text": "OpenAI就比较脆弱", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2039.18, "end": 2040.28, "text": "那波动性也比较大", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2040.28, "end": 2041.6, "text": "因为他的收入有60%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2041.6, "end": 2042.64, "text": "是来自个人消费者", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2042.64, "end": 2043.88, "text": "那讲不好听一点", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11018064710828993, "no_speech_prob": 2.8831713058674602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.443526170798898 }, { "start": 2043.88, "end": 2046.64, "text": "就是個人消費者就是一種另類的牆頭槽", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2046.64, "end": 2048.64, "text": "就是誰好用我就用哪個", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2048.64, "end": 2049.12, "text": "對", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2049.12, "end": 2051.42, "text": "所以再加上他的現金消耗率非常高", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2051.42, "end": 2054.52, "text": "他說在2027年之前都會維持在57%左右", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2054.52, "end": 2057.12, "text": "所以兩個一比你就知道誰比較安全一點", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2057.12, "end": 2057.32, "text": "對", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2057.32, "end": 2059.82, "text": "好最後你覺得現在到了轉折點了嗎", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2059.82, "end": 2060.54, "text": "我先講嗎", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2060.54, "end": 2061.42, "text": "我覺得是這樣", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2061.42, "end": 2063.44, "text": "我覺得他黃南訓算看起來", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2063.44, "end": 2065.22, "text": "這個操作有非常多的風險在裡面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2065.22, "end": 2066.18, "text": "但不得不說", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2066.18, "end": 2069.68, "text": "他也等於是解救這一群AI公司短期的客", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2069.68, "end": 2070.74, "text": "因為他們現在缺錢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2070.74, "end": 2071.68, "text": "他們需要更多資金", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2958777671636537, "no_speech_prob": 3.626968517189688e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3442622950819672 }, { "start": 2071.68, "end": 2073.98, "text": "那傳統方法其實已經都不夠用", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2073.98, "end": 2076.42, "text": "他接下來要借錢值會成本越來越大", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2076.42, "end": 2078.28, "text": "他利息必須付出越來越高的意義", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2078.28, "end": 2078.84, "text": "才會辦法借到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2078.84, "end": 2081.18, "text": "黃金群找這六大巨頭來做這件事情", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2081.18, "end": 2082.52, "text": "我覺得短期會幫到他們", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2082.52, "end": 2085.22, "text": "所以我覺得雖然我們要注重風險", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2085.22, "end": 2086.72, "text": "但我還是會再玩一下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2086.72, "end": 2088.72, "text": "但只要加速度開始減緩", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2088.72, "end": 2089.62, "text": "我一定會跑一批", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2089.62, "end": 2091.14, "text": "我一定先跑 我沒有要客氣的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2091.14, "end": 2092.22, "text": "因為我們剛才有講到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2092.22, "end": 2093.38, "text": "這一次的結構", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2093.38, "end": 2095.02, "text": "如果未來真的要炸的話會瞬間", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2095.02, "end": 2095.74, "text": "那個速度很快", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2095.74, "end": 2097.68, "text": "所以我只要有苗頭不對就開始減", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2097.68, "end": 2099.18, "text": "Megi其實把這一次的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2099.18, "end": 2100.92, "text": "交易的策略講得非常清楚", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24802029689895772, "no_speech_prob": 3.32107084888289e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4201474201474202 }, { "start": 2100.92, "end": 2102.36, "text": "我沒有預料到他會講那麼清楚", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2102.36, "end": 2103.08, "text": "所以我覺得", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2103.08, "end": 2103.98, "text": "省慎樂觀吧", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2103.98, "end": 2104.86, "text": "我會繼續跟他玩", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2104.86, "end": 2106.36, "text": "但有任何的蛛絲馬跡", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2106.36, "end": 2107.72, "text": "我應該跑的比大家還快啦", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2107.72, "end": 2108.02, "text": "對", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2110.02, "end": 2110.66, "text": "記得講", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2110.66, "end": 2114.56, "text": "因為他們如果有把那個正循環做起來", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2114.56, "end": 2116.46, "text": "再往上衝的機率是有", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2116.46, "end": 2119.38, "text": "他往上衝那個漲幅也會蠻可觀的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2119.38, "end": 2122.68, "text": "那老實講我現在還沒覺得到反轉的那個點", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2122.68, "end": 2124.62, "text": "我覺得短期之內也還不會到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2124.62, "end": 2125.78, "text": "第一個原因就是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2125.78, "end": 2127.28, "text": "他們的財務長都有出來說", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2127.28, "end": 2128.18, "text": "現在才能不夠", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2128.18, "end": 2129.92, "text": "就是微軟亞馬遜跟Alphabet", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.2360689813198324, "no_speech_prob": 2.336262086566343e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286516853932584 }, { "start": 2129.92, "end": 2132.02, "text": "这三家公司的财务长都有出来说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2132.02, "end": 2134.7, "text": "就是我们现在还是供给受限的状况下", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2134.7, "end": 2136.34, "text": "对 第二个就是它的积压订单", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2136.34, "end": 2138.08, "text": "已经是签约的现金了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2138.08, "end": 2140.58, "text": "那四家合计是2.33兆美元", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2140.58, "end": 2141.6, "text": "单季增量是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2141.6, "end": 2143.2, "text": "AWS是1320亿", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2143.2, "end": 2144.94, "text": "Oracle是加了850亿", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2144.94, "end": 2146.22, "text": "Google Cloud是加了510亿", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2146.22, "end": 2148.44, "text": "但是我觉得这个东西还是要看所有的品质", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2148.44, "end": 2152.56, "text": "因为像微软的商用位履约订单的成长总额是84%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2152.56, "end": 2155.0, "text": "那排除OpenAI之后只剩25%", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2155.0, "end": 2156.04, "text": "所以你的每一家公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2156.04, "end": 2157.72, "text": "你还是要去看它的品质好不好", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2157.72, "end": 2158.9, "text": "对 第三个就是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12880499920441738, "no_speech_prob": 1.6967134294776365e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2860892388451444 }, { "start": 2158.9, "end": 2160.88, "text": "这个东西是以年纪的瓶颈", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2160.88, "end": 2163.58, "text": "先进封装就是现在已经紧张到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2163.58, "end": 2164.8, "text": "就是台积电财务长有说嘛", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2164.8, "end": 2166.74, "text": "就是正在限制我的客户的成长", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2166.74, "end": 2169.54, "text": "所以HBN2026年已经完全卖完了", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2169.54, "end": 2171.46, "text": "那你的就是我们之前有说过的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2171.46, "end": 2172.02, "text": "蓝气波轮G", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2172.02, "end": 2174.48, "text": "这个东西的等候名单是等了三到四年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2174.48, "end": 2176.5, "text": "等于是定单是排到2028到2029", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2176.5, "end": 2179.78, "text": "那你的变压器的交付的年限也是很久", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2179.78, "end": 2181.16, "text": "那还有就是很多", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2181.16, "end": 2184.68, "text": "我之前有说的就是并往排队的这个年限", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2184.68, "end": 2185.8, "text": "也是超过五年以上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2185.8, "end": 2188.16, "text": "所以这些瓶颈解除的时间", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12622116248645082, "no_speech_prob": 2.7637517274747836e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4629080118694362 }, { "start": 2188.16, "end": 2189.84, "text": "不是以季来计算的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2189.84, "end": 2190.8, "text": "是以年来计算", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2190.8, "end": 2192.48, "text": "所以这个工需在物理上", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2192.48, "end": 2194.74, "text": "很难在2026跟2027年反转", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2194.74, "end": 2196.44, "text": "所以我觉得现在短期先不要担心", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2196.44, "end": 2198.6, "text": "那现在需求其实还是在放大的啦", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2198.6, "end": 2200.14, "text": "就是因为Google之前有说嘛", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2200.14, "end": 2201.44, "text": "就是它每个月Token的处理量", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2201.44, "end": 2203.2, "text": "就是两年成长了330倍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2203.2, "end": 2205.24, "text": "Agentic AI的单次任务的消耗量", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2205.24, "end": 2206.9, "text": "是传统对话的100到1000倍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2206.9, "end": 2208.72, "text": "所以这个需求曲线的这个邪率", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2208.72, "end": 2209.56, "text": "还是有在变斗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2209.56, "end": 2210.16, "text": "不是变幻", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2210.16, "end": 2210.54, "text": "对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2210.54, "end": 2212.04, "text": "所以目前的状况下比较像是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2212.04, "end": 2214.14, "text": "现在这两个始终是不同步的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2214.14, "end": 2216.96, "text": "因为债务累积是一个线性的过程", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0970163478407749, "no_speech_prob": 2.7535917990206826e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3657289002557544 }, { "start": 2216.96, "end": 2219.28, "text": "那技术革命是一个非线性的过程", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2219.28, "end": 2220.76, "text": "线性的过程的意思是说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2220.76, "end": 2222.44, "text": "你的债务每年就是量累积嘛", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2222.44, "end": 2222.98, "text": "你也知道", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2222.98, "end": 2224.44, "text": "就是它一直可以可预测", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2224.44, "end": 2225.88, "text": "有时间表有到期日", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2225.88, "end": 2227.22, "text": "有白纸黑字的合约", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2227.22, "end": 2227.54, "text": "对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2227.54, "end": 2229.32, "text": "所以它就是按照时间表来做事", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2229.32, "end": 2230.54, "text": "那非线性的意思是说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2230.54, "end": 2232.18, "text": "你今天的技术有可能出现的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2232.18, "end": 2233.02, "text": "哪一个奇异点", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2233.02, "end": 2234.64, "text": "或者它技术可能会突然加速", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2234.64, "end": 2235.78, "text": "也有可能突然停滞", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2235.78, "end": 2237.64, "text": "就是它是一个没有明确时间表的东西", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2237.64, "end": 2238.92, "text": "所以危险不会在于说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2238.92, "end": 2240.1, "text": "就是这个技术会不会成功", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2240.1, "end": 2241.28, "text": "而是说今天这两个", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2241.28, "end": 2242.54, "text": "时钟是不同步的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2242.54, "end": 2243.86, "text": "它会有点像是龟兔出来跑", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12114095052083333, "no_speech_prob": 3.047869942540693e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.598360655737705 }, { "start": 2243.86, "end": 2246.62, "text": "就是你一只可随时可能睡着的兔子", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2246.62, "end": 2248.7, "text": "去追一只永远不会休息的乌龟", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2248.7, "end": 2249.96, "text": "就是你不是在赌说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2249.96, "end": 2251.82, "text": "这只兔子会不会跑得比乌龟快", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2251.82, "end": 2253.44, "text": "你在赌他说这段路上面", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2253.44, "end": 2254.18, "text": "他会不会突然睡着", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2254.18, "end": 2255.28, "text": "他的主业很强", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2255.28, "end": 2258.38, "text": "只代表说他危机爆发之前的时间会更长", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2258.38, "end": 2259.24, "text": "不代表他不会爆", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2259.24, "end": 2260.84, "text": "所以我们可以看什么", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2260.84, "end": 2261.42, "text": "第一个就是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2261.42, "end": 2262.72, "text": "现在我很在意这个东西", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2262.72, "end": 2265.26, "text": "就是现在token的单价下跌的速度", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2265.26, "end": 2267.02, "text": "是快于用量成长", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2267.02, "end": 2267.88, "text": "我不知道大家有没有观察到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2267.88, "end": 2269.26, "text": "就是企业的token使用量", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2269.26, "end": 2272.54, "text": "从20025年初到2026年4月成长10倍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08721472137603001, "no_speech_prob": 2.119442815695649e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.44141689373297 }, { "start": 2272.54, "end": 2274.14, "text": "但是支出值成长的5倍", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2274.14, "end": 2274.56, "text": "什么意思", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2274.56, "end": 2275.78, "text": "就是你的用量爆炸", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2275.78, "end": 2277.38, "text": "跟你的营收爆炸是在脱钩", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2277.38, "end": 2278.36, "text": "那换句话说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2278.36, "end": 2279.32, "text": "就代表说你的单位", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2279.32, "end": 2280.52, "text": "Token的价格是在跌的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2280.52, "end": 2281.38, "text": "跌的可凶", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2281.38, "end": 2281.68, "text": "对", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2281.68, "end": 2282.62, "text": "那第二个就是看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2282.62, "end": 2283.46, "text": "计价订单的品质", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2283.46, "end": 2284.08, "text": "不是规模", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2284.08, "end": 2284.66, "text": "刚才没有讲", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2284.66, "end": 2285.48, "text": "然后第三个就是看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2285.48, "end": 2286.86, "text": "供给延误造成的时间差", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2286.86, "end": 2288.08, "text": "因为现在有报道指出", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2288.08, "end": 2288.84, "text": "就是2026年", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2288.84, "end": 2290.16, "text": "美国规划数据中心", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2290.16, "end": 2292.32, "text": "有1 3到1 2是延误或取消的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2292.32, "end": 2294.64, "text": "它预计规划容量是12到16GW", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2294.64, "end": 2296.08, "text": "实际在建的只有5GW", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2296.08, "end": 2297.06, "text": "所以延迟的原因", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12050807529025608, "no_speech_prob": 2.7107354555466756e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3243243243243243 }, { "start": 2297.06, "end": 2298.92, "text": "主要是因为电力跟供应链不是需求", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2298.92, "end": 2301.4, "text": "所以现在还是供不应求的证据摆在这", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2301.4, "end": 2302.4, "text": "但你要想一个问题", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2302.4, "end": 2304.94, "text": "如果说他把产能同时推迟到", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2304.94, "end": 2306.44, "text": "2027到2028年间", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2306.44, "end": 2309.28, "text": "如果延误的产能同时在2027年集中上线", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2309.28, "end": 2311.3, "text": "但那个时候单价因为价格在", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2311.3, "end": 2312.42, "text": "已经跌了一大截", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2312.42, "end": 2314.06, "text": "然后再加上产能一次到位", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2314.06, "end": 2315.02, "text": "跌加低单价", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2315.02, "end": 2316.44, "text": "这是一个不好的组合", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2316.44, "end": 2318.54, "text": "我觉得可以用一个简单的分类去分", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2318.54, "end": 2321.04, "text": "这是在做债务评级的分类", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2321.04, "end": 2322.2, "text": "第一类就是所谓的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2322.2, "end": 2324.32, "text": "你的薪水本金加上利息都付得起", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2324.32, "end": 2326.3, "text": "那第二类就是说你只付得起利息", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08865326697673273, "no_speech_prob": 4.280377441379102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4793388429752066 }, { "start": 2326.3, "end": 2327.1, "text": "本金会一直拖", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2327.1, "end": 2328.0, "text": "然后第三类就是", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2328.0, "end": 2329.58, "text": "你连利息都还要再借钱来缴", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2329.58, "end": 2331.1, "text": "这就是我们说的庞氏骗局", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2331.1, "end": 2332.3, "text": "第二类的人", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2332.3, "end": 2334.12, "text": "平常看起来会跟第一类的人一样", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2334.12, "end": 2335.34, "text": "差别就是他在说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2335.34, "end": 2336.28, "text": "就是哪一天银行", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2336.28, "end": 2337.82, "text": "会不会不再和你续约", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2337.82, "end": 2339.14, "text": "所以银行会不会续约", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2339.14, "end": 2341.1, "text": "跟你房子好不好的关系不大", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2341.1, "end": 2343.62, "text": "跟当时的市场的景气有关", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2343.62, "end": 2344.42, "text": "这就是为什么刚说", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2344.42, "end": 2345.08, "text": "就是主业很强", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2345.08, "end": 2345.92, "text": "不等于他不会出事", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2345.92, "end": 2347.48, "text": "那我们一样把加速度的概念", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2347.48, "end": 2348.32, "text": "拿过来这边看", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2348.32, "end": 2350.84, "text": "就是你需求成长的加速度开始下滑", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2350.84, "end": 2352.64, "text": "那第一类就有可能会变成第二类", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07297291225857205, "no_speech_prob": 2.8168222962476896e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5576923076923077 }, { "start": 2352.64, "end": 2354.18, "text": "那你的加速度跌破成零", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2354.18, "end": 2355.78, "text": "也就是說你的成長停滯了之後", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2355.78, "end": 2357.04, "text": "就會完全變成第二類", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2357.04, "end": 2358.64, "text": "而且很難靠自己再走回去", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2358.64, "end": 2360.24, "text": "所以盯加速度的重點在於說", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2360.24, "end": 2361.84, "text": "你要盯這家公司什麼時候從", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2361.84, "end": 2363.94, "text": "會從就是不用看銀行臉色", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2363.94, "end": 2365.68, "text": "變成你今天要看銀行臉色的公司", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2365.68, "end": 2366.66, "text": "因為像是Google跟MZ", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2366.66, "end": 2368.16, "text": "他們現在已經是先進流轉附了嘛", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2368.16, "end": 2370.1, "text": "就是剛跨進第二類的門檻", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2370.1, "end": 2371.9, "text": "那WRN跟META現在還在第一類", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2371.9, "end": 2373.5, "text": "那資本開支不控制", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2373.5, "end": 2374.6, "text": "可能也會去第二類", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2374.6, "end": 2376.4, "text": "那Oracle是早就已經在第二類", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2376.4, "end": 2378.3, "text": "那為什麼剛剛就像講的美在", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2378.3, "end": 2379.54, "text": "看起來像第一發的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2379.54, "end": 2382.1, "text": "這是一個世界上最大的社會實驗", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24730348808820857, "no_speech_prob": 2.9303923870793724e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.400943396226415 }, { "start": 2382.64, "end": 2385.04, "text": "然後好我這次做最後總結", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2385.04, "end": 2387.34, "text": "就是你不要把股票的", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2387.34, "end": 2389.18, "text": "風險跟債券的風險", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2389.28, "end": 2390.28, "text": "把它混為一談啊", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2390.28, "end": 2392.14, "text": "就是因為股東今天問的東西是說", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2392.14, "end": 2393.68, "text": "你的AI這個技術有沒有價值", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2393.68, "end": 2394.68, "text": "你未來可以賺多少錢", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2394.68, "end": 2395.98, "text": "那你的債主問的是說", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2395.98, "end": 2398.54, "text": "我今天這幾千億砸下去的固定資產", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2398.54, "end": 2399.74, "text": "未來可以產生多少現金流", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2399.74, "end": 2400.0, "text": "他", "chunk": 4, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.22871946677183494, "no_speech_prob": 1.581168876385597e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2991803278688525 }, { "start": 2400.0, "end": 2402.04, "text": "它夠不夠付我資本的這些成本。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18705452813042533, "no_speech_prob": 1.109416551681175e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4975728155339805 }, { "start": 2402.04, "end": 2403.68, "text": "所以兩個其實是完全不一樣的問題。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18705452813042533, "no_speech_prob": 1.109416551681175e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4975728155339805 }, { "start": 2403.68, "end": 2407.28, "text": "那過去兩年這些股價只回答第一個問題,就只回答一個了。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18705452813042533, "no_speech_prob": 1.109416551681175e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4975728155339805 }, { "start": 2407.28, "end": 2410.76, "text": "對,所以就是AI的長期風險是需求量不夠。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18705452813042533, "no_speech_prob": 1.109416551681175e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4975728155339805 }, { "start": 2410.76, "end": 2412.24, "text": "但是目前這個東西其實我不擔心。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18705452813042533, "no_speech_prob": 1.109416551681175e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4975728155339805 }, { "start": 2412.24, "end": 2414.96, "text": "因為需求取卷我們剛剛有說它還在繼續變抖。", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18705452813042533, "no_speech_prob": 1.109416551681175e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4975728155339805 }, { "start": 2414.96, "end": 2416.5, "text": "那它的渗透率其实也还在上升", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2416.5, "end": 2417.46, "text": "那技术也还在进步", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2417.46, "end": 2418.6, "text": "所以这个东西我先不担心", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2418.6, "end": 2420.04, "text": "那短中期累积的风险是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2420.04, "end": 2421.2, "text": "你的资本开支的速度", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2421.2, "end": 2423.06, "text": "会超过你真实现金流产生的速度", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2423.06, "end": 2425.2, "text": "那这个问题其实也要好几年才会有答案", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2425.2, "end": 2426.84, "text": "然后可是你资本开支的速度", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2426.84, "end": 2428.52, "text": "有没有超过你真实现金流产生的速度", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2428.52, "end": 2430.56, "text": "这个东西其实每一季财报都会给答案", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2430.56, "end": 2431.68, "text": "所以财报要看", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2431.68, "end": 2432.68, "text": "那我们现在其实看到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2432.68, "end": 2435.04, "text": "就是现在消泡这个时间节点还没有到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2435.04, "end": 2437.86, "text": "但是融资开始往下渗透跟蔓延的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2437.86, "end": 2439.08, "text": "这件事情已经开始发生", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2439.08, "end": 2440.18, "text": "确实已经开始发生", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07811305575900608, "no_speech_prob": 3.5602461950778874e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6395663956639566 }, { "start": 2440.18, "end": 2442.78, "text": "那从9%到32%这件事情是已经发生的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2442.78, "end": 2444.48, "text": "他不会因为说今天需求很好", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2444.48, "end": 2446.58, "text": "就把我借来的钱全部还给银行", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2446.58, "end": 2447.18, "text": "这不合理", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2447.18, "end": 2448.72, "text": "因为这些公司的运作逻辑不是会", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2448.72, "end": 2449.38, "text": "我要去还钱", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2449.38, "end": 2450.28, "text": "而是我要去想着", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2450.28, "end": 2451.94, "text": "我怎么借更多钱来把他钱生钱", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2451.94, "end": 2454.18, "text": "所以这个比例大概率是不会压回去的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2454.18, "end": 2456.88, "text": "那大部分的问题其实都集中在源头的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2456.88, "end": 2458.18, "text": "OpenAgenthropic身上", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2458.18, "end": 2459.84, "text": "就是你下一个爆发的新需求", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2459.84, "end": 2460.62, "text": "到底什么时候出现", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2460.62, "end": 2461.52, "text": "我相信一定会有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2461.52, "end": 2462.82, "text": "但是关键是那个时间点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2462.82, "end": 2463.34, "text": "要成了过去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2463.34, "end": 2463.58, "text": "对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2463.58, "end": 2466.42, "text": "他不能比就是全部集中在2027年", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2466.42, "end": 2468.28, "text": "完全上线一起集中上线的时候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2468.28, "end": 2469.78, "text": "之后他才兑现说", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15334302489109303, "no_speech_prob": 2.638039439673001e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.337837837837838 }, { "start": 2469.78, "end": 2470.42, "text": "就是有需求", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2470.42, "end": 2471.46, "text": "这件事情就不太OK", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2471.46, "end": 2472.88, "text": "所以关键是那个时间点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2472.88, "end": 2474.9, "text": "所以如果今天走了一个最坏的状况", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2474.9, "end": 2475.98, "text": "我觉得剧本大概是这样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2475.98, "end": 2478.76, "text": "就是最前面的融资条件开始出现裂缝", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2478.76, "end": 2480.94, "text": "就是你的融资某一轮的估值上不去了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2480.94, "end": 2481.98, "text": "然后接着是模型公司", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2481.98, "end": 2483.2, "text": "还会开始保留现金", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2483.2, "end": 2484.92, "text": "然后会缩减对算帝的承诺", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2484.92, "end": 2486.88, "text": "那这等于是你的合约会违约", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2486.88, "end": 2489.0, "text": "那你的性质源像是房地产泡沫那时候的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2489.0, "end": 2489.96, "text": "第一批浪尾楼出现", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2489.96, "end": 2491.76, "text": "那你的违约就会打击到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2491.76, "end": 2493.78, "text": "你的高杠杆的那些恶房东", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2493.78, "end": 2496.44, "text": "那买GPU和出租GPU的这些利差", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08486866421169705, "no_speech_prob": 4.5696002537454206e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4196891191709844 }, { "start": 2496.44, "end": 2497.48, "text": "会开始怎么讲", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2497.48, "end": 2498.06, "text": "支不抵债", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2498.06, "end": 2498.46, "text": "对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2498.46, "end": 2501.32, "text": "那最后会是整个AI体系的信用", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2501.32, "end": 2502.74, "text": "都崩坏冻结", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2502.74, "end": 2504.12, "text": "所以你的未履约的义务", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2504.12, "end": 2505.48, "text": "会被重新定价成", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2505.48, "end": 2506.76, "text": "就是交易的风险", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2506.76, "end": 2509.1, "text": "那以GPU担保的这些票券", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2509.1, "end": 2510.3, "text": "是没有办法攒期的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2510.3, "end": 2511.56, "text": "那你的上游的供应链", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2511.56, "end": 2513.02, "text": "有可能会就开始大面积", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2513.02, "end": 2514.22, "text": "以资产会减值", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2514.22, "end": 2515.2, "text": "所以这个地方有一个", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2515.2, "end": 2516.54, "text": "跟房地产最大的不同", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2516.54, "end": 2518.2, "text": "就是你的技术其实有在进步的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2518.2, "end": 2519.44, "text": "你渗透率其实有在上升的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2519.44, "end": 2520.46, "text": "需求也是有在成长", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2520.46, "end": 2522.5, "text": "只是现在的基础设施的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2522.5, "end": 2524.18, "text": "时间配置没配好", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2524.18, "end": 2525.12, "text": "所以到最后", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10999121424239901, "no_speech_prob": 2.3282466232732446e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3705722070844686 }, { "start": 2525.12, "end": 2527.22, "text": "有可能反而那些资本最雄厚的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2527.22, "end": 2529.36, "text": "在这一轮投入最谨慎的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2529.36, "end": 2532.02, "text": "那你的风险场口最小的参与者", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2532.02, "end": 2534.96, "text": "有机会用极低的价格买到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2534.96, "end": 2536.88, "text": "买下来那些被烂尾的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2536.88, "end": 2539.96, "text": "Apple就静静的看着你们借钱", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2539.96, "end": 2541.76, "text": "你要记得历史上的每次泡沫都是这样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2541.76, "end": 2542.96, "text": "就是你泡沫破掉的时候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2542.96, "end": 2544.18, "text": "这些钱没有消失", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2544.18, "end": 2545.98, "text": "只是换了一个人拿这些钱", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2545.98, "end": 2546.56, "text": "对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2546.56, "end": 2549.58, "text": "那通常换到那个人在很狂热的时候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2549.58, "end": 2551.52, "text": "是很理智在算报酬率的人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2551.52, "end": 2552.88, "text": "好棒棒BRK", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13212747624851165, "no_speech_prob": 2.061809056819186e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3169230769230769 }, { "start": 2552.88, "end": 2555.54, "text": "好啦耶我終於結束了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2555.54, "end": 2558.12, "text": "帥 有要問問題沒", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2558.12, "end": 2559.02, "text": "有人問啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2559.02, "end": 2561.58, "text": "舉手二手GPU沒有定價模型嗎", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2561.58, "end": 2562.72, "text": "不是二手飛機啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2562.72, "end": 2564.72, "text": "到時候怎麼定義二手價值", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2564.72, "end": 2566.32, "text": "應該會是集合金甲", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2566.32, "end": 2568.42, "text": "就是用撮合的方式定價", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2568.42, "end": 2569.84, "text": "有期貨就會有定價", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2569.84, "end": 2570.94, "text": "對", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2570.94, "end": 2572.34, "text": "事情都是一樣的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2572.34, "end": 2573.46, "text": "這樣看起來其實對比", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2573.46, "end": 2574.8, "text": "八年跟00年是一樣的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2574.8, "end": 2577.44, "text": "大家只是把上次兩次教訓學起來", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2577.44, "end": 2579.04, "text": "兩個融災一起再玩一次", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2579.04, "end": 2579.48, "text": "對啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2579.48, "end": 2580.58, "text": "應該就是兩次", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2580.58, "end": 2582.54, "text": "兩個事件的問題點在發生", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28878812092106515, "no_speech_prob": 2.4860584077468495e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3765822784810127 }, { "start": 2582.54, "end": 2583.38, "text": "就是熊在一起", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2583.38, "end": 2584.54, "text": "然後告訴你這次不一樣", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2584.54, "end": 2585.74, "text": "對確實不一樣", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2585.74, "end": 2586.74, "text": "對但特別啦", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2586.74, "end": 2588.38, "text": "兩個然後尬奏會這樣", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2588.38, "end": 2590.54, "text": "然後把兩邊的好的不學學壞的這樣", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2590.54, "end": 2591.08, "text": "全部學壞的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2591.08, "end": 2591.98, "text": "對全部學壞", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2591.98, "end": 2593.58, "text": "我先講一下我自己的論點", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2593.58, "end": 2594.68, "text": "包含那個美債啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2594.68, "end": 2596.38, "text": "其實很早之前我們就有探討過", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2596.38, "end": 2597.58, "text": "美債是不是一扛四片", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2597.58, "end": 2598.88, "text": "但你其實仔細想想", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2598.88, "end": 2600.2, "text": "它就是一個資金的回圈", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2600.2, "end": 2601.1, "text": "就是這個回圈要轉動", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2601.1, "end": 2601.8, "text": "就跟Milkia講一樣", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2601.8, "end": 2603.0, "text": "你要找到新的球", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2603.0, "end": 2603.9, "text": "不是說真的有人買單", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2603.9, "end": 2605.7, "text": "其實有人買單就代表有繞出去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2605.7, "end": 2606.84, "text": "就是你要讓這個", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2606.84, "end": 2608.2, "text": "你不要只是一個內循環", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2608.2, "end": 2609.64, "text": "你的內循環有在接收一點", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2609.64, "end": 2610.8, "text": "外面的力量進來", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28372690836588543, "no_speech_prob": 4.005910880788832e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.538265306122449 }, { "start": 2610.8, "end": 2613.3, "text": "就是这个球是有互相抛来抛去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2613.3, "end": 2614.92, "text": "然后不能只在同一小圈玩", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2614.92, "end": 2616.5, "text": "要把这球抛出去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2616.5, "end": 2618.34, "text": "美国人就是最会抛来抛去", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2618.34, "end": 2619.96, "text": "那事实也证明", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2619.96, "end": 2621.24, "text": "当美国人抛不动的时候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2621.24, "end": 2622.32, "text": "他就会找别人报", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2622.32, "end": 2624.08, "text": "他就会报别人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2624.08, "end": 2624.94, "text": "要报的时候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2624.94, "end": 2626.02, "text": "他就丢给某一个人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2626.02, "end": 2627.42, "text": "那现在看起来", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2627.42, "end": 2629.26, "text": "美债也是比较压力比较有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2629.26, "end": 2630.76, "text": "那谁可以被牺牲", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2630.76, "end": 2631.98, "text": "就是一个好人议题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2631.98, "end": 2633.62, "text": "因为我觉得事情没有那么单纯", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2633.62, "end": 2635.04, "text": "就是说都是杠杆", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2635.04, "end": 2635.72, "text": "都是债务", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2635.72, "end": 2636.86, "text": "那谁会被牺牲", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2636.86, "end": 2638.48, "text": "是可以被考量的点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2638.48, "end": 2640.04, "text": "所以我觉得这一次事件", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12211978020359628, "no_speech_prob": 3.433987122436477e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5520504731861198 }, { "start": 2640.04, "end": 2641.4, "text": "我自己判断的结尾", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2641.4, "end": 2642.36, "text": "也会是这样的点", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2642.36, "end": 2643.68, "text": "就是看牺牲谁", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2643.68, "end": 2644.54, "text": "然后范围多大", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2644.54, "end": 2645.46, "text": "那我觉得这些东西", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2645.46, "end": 2647.0, "text": "在过程当中都会有蛛丝码", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2647.0, "end": 2648.12, "text": "只是那个时机点还没到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2648.12, "end": 2649.68, "text": "但是我也要讲就是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2649.68, "end": 2651.48, "text": "我们明现在讲出来", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2651.48, "end": 2652.5, "text": "就是因为我希望", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2652.5, "end": 2653.54, "text": "他对这件事情", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2653.54, "end": 2655.04, "text": "对你们而言是个灰犀牛", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2655.04, "end": 2656.0, "text": "不是个黑天鹅", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2656.0, "end": 2656.76, "text": "如果你们知道", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2656.76, "end": 2657.42, "text": "他是个灰犀牛", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2657.42, "end": 2658.04, "text": "就是你知道", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2658.04, "end": 2659.5, "text": "他总有一天会发生这件事情", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2659.5, "end": 2660.46, "text": "只是你不知道什么时候发生", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2660.46, "end": 2661.64, "text": "那你就可以先做好准备", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2661.64, "end": 2662.54, "text": "有人问灰犀牛", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2662.54, "end": 2663.64, "text": "跟黑天鹅差别在哪", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2663.64, "end": 2664.9, "text": "黑天鹅就是你完全", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2664.9, "end": 2666.06, "text": "突如其来", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2666.06, "end": 2667.6, "text": "意料之外发生事情", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2667.6, "end": 2668.36, "text": "但如果这件事", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11240974426269532, "no_speech_prob": 3.244491481035894e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.568733153638814 }, { "start": 2668.36, "end": 2670.2, "text": "灰溪铭就是你知道它存在在那", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2670.2, "end": 2671.72, "text": "只是你不知道它什么时候朝你冲过来", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2671.72, "end": 2673.92, "text": "我觉得这就套用回投资的那个逻辑", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2673.92, "end": 2675.22, "text": "就是说在这个情况下", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2675.22, "end": 2677.26, "text": "你真的就是半上车半上", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2677.26, "end": 2679.32, "text": "除非你的你投入的资金真的太旁", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2679.32, "end": 2680.04, "text": "大到会影响", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2680.04, "end": 2681.4, "text": "那你可能上的比例就要再恐", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2681.4, "end": 2682.42, "text": "因为你看像巴菲特的逻辑", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2682.42, "end": 2684.18, "text": "就是因为它现金放在那边也没差", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2684.18, "end": 2684.88, "text": "那就放", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2684.88, "end": 2686.56, "text": "但是如果你这个成长率来讲", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2686.56, "end": 2687.82, "text": "还是有称的必要", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2687.82, "end": 2688.46, "text": "还是要对啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2688.46, "end": 2689.56, "text": "不能完全下跌", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2689.56, "end": 2693.16, "text": "我觉得这个是很好的议题", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2693.16, "end": 2695.22, "text": "而且坦白讲啦", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2695.22, "end": 2695.98, "text": "看他们这样搞", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2695.98, "end": 2697.5, "text": "这没有不报的理由啦", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.214447769464231, "no_speech_prob": 6.418614251213484e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.472 }, { "start": 2697.5, "end": 2698.0, "text": "对啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2698.0, "end": 2698.56, "text": "整天早晚", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2698.56, "end": 2699.36, "text": "我在套用", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2699.36, "end": 2700.54, "text": "他还出来主揪", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2700.54, "end": 2701.14, "text": "真的觉得真的是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2701.14, "end": 2702.14, "text": "You bet bet", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2702.14, "end": 2702.74, "text": "呃", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2702.74, "end": 2704.7, "text": "我给大家一个数字啦", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2704.7, "end": 2705.6, "text": "就是我刚才", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2705.6, "end": 2707.3, "text": "之所以一直用电脑就这样", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2707.3, "end": 2709.24, "text": "我查了五大", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2709.24, "end": 2710.54, "text": "就是前五大巨头", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2710.54, "end": 2711.7, "text": "前七大 前八大", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2711.7, "end": 2712.84, "text": "我所有我想得到的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2712.84, "end": 2713.7, "text": "四个英文字母", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2713.7, "end": 2715.56, "text": "能抽出来的公司", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2715.56, "end": 2716.3, "text": "过去三年", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2716.3, "end": 2717.6, "text": "真的没有人买股票啦", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2717.6, "end": 2718.4, "text": "公司内部人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2718.4, "end": 2719.6, "text": "没有人买股票", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2719.6, "end": 2720.86, "text": "只有马斯克象征意义的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2720.86, "end": 2722.7, "text": "带着食物充了一次", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2722.7, "end": 2723.2, "text": "有的没有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2723.2, "end": 2723.9, "text": "他买满多的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2723.9, "end": 2725.1, "text": "那个特斯拉", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2725.1, "end": 2725.4, "text": "对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2725.4, "end": 2726.5, "text": "其他没有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2726.5, "end": 2726.74, "text": "对", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3093437608239686, "no_speech_prob": 2.224305635512014e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3873873873873874 }, { "start": 2726.74, "end": 2727.74, "text": "他那個象徵意義比較重", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2727.74, "end": 2728.58, "text": "還有一堆", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2728.58, "end": 2729.3, "text": "行銷費", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2729.3, "end": 2729.78, "text": "行銷費", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2729.78, "end": 2730.84, "text": "還有一堆", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2730.84, "end": 2731.84, "text": "台系列的股東", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2731.84, "end": 2734.18, "text": "不知道為什麼要10萬10萬台幣買", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2734.18, "end": 2734.94, "text": "嗯", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2734.94, "end": 2736.08, "text": "我不懂", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2736.08, "end": 2736.78, "text": "有時候的毛病", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2736.78, "end": 2737.44, "text": "那天", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2737.44, "end": 2739.98, "text": "這中高階管理層他投月薪嗎", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2739.98, "end": 2741.68, "text": "你知道那個報表超長的你知道嗎", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2741.68, "end": 2742.68, "text": "哈哈哈", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2742.68, "end": 2743.68, "text": "對除此之外", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2743.68, "end": 2744.88, "text": "所有管理層沒有人在買", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2744.88, "end": 2746.1, "text": "全部是賣股票", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2746.1, "end": 2746.38, "text": "對", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2746.38, "end": 2748.14, "text": "Google Microsoft Amazon", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2748.14, "end": 2749.7, "text": "我那時候跟John一起查", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2749.7, "end": 2750.2, "text": "真的都沒有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2750.2, "end": 2751.3, "text": "上年內沒有人買", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2751.3, "end": 2752.9, "text": "只要是大科技的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2752.9, "end": 2753.94, "text": "你如果是傳統股", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2753.94, "end": 2755.38, "text": "可能還有一點", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2755.38, "end": 2756.18, "text": "比如說可能Disney", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3443184288180604, "no_speech_prob": 1.8750109104237467e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3091397849462365 }, { "start": 2756.18, "end": 2756.94, "text": "可能還有人買", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2756.94, "end": 2759.08, "text": "但是這些大科技商一點都沒有", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2759.08, "end": 2760.92, "text": "但是你如果說要重倉", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2760.92, "end": 2761.72, "text": "可以想一下", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2761.72, "end": 2762.58, "text": "還不是時候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2762.58, "end": 2764.78, "text": "不是除非你功課做得很足", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2764.78, "end": 2766.18, "text": "你覺得這就是你的戰略", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2766.18, "end": 2768.82, "text": "你就是Fuck所有AI公司", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2768.82, "end": 2771.32, "text": "那也是沒有不行", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2771.72, "end": 2773.44, "text": "我覺得不適宜一個計測", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2773.44, "end": 2774.24, "text": "我覺得就這樣", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2774.24, "end": 2776.44, "text": "你有你的策略就去執行", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2776.44, "end": 2777.04, "text": "對不對", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2777.04, "end": 2778.14, "text": "不論Maggie多專業", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2778.14, "end": 2779.44, "text": "Erik多厲害", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2779.44, "end": 2781.08, "text": "你有你的想法你就去做", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2781.08, "end": 2781.64, "text": "對", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2781.64, "end": 2783.18, "text": "你最後賺到錢就好了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2783.18, "end": 2784.48, "text": "你不用跟別人比", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2784.48, "end": 2786.18, "text": "最怕就這樣就要比", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28476238828716854, "no_speech_prob": 2.8073231239655883e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.358433734939759 }, { "start": 2786.18, "end": 2788.18, "text": "請歡迎收聽我們的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2788.18, "end": 2789.68, "text": "今朝月有節", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2789.68, "end": 2791.18, "text": "對嘛其實這個不用比", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2791.18, "end": 2792.68, "text": "我反而覺得喔", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2792.68, "end": 2794.18, "text": "你有一個自己很篤定的看法", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2794.18, "end": 2795.18, "text": "然後你執行了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2795.18, "end": 2796.18, "text": "你賺到錢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2796.18, "end": 2797.18, "text": "那真的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2797.18, "end": 2798.18, "text": "舒服", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2798.18, "end": 2799.18, "text": "自己感覺是最好的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2799.18, "end": 2799.68, "text": "對", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2799.68, "end": 2802.18, "text": "我個人的跟單經驗都不好啦", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2802.18, "end": 2804.18, "text": "因為哪怕我跟下去了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2804.18, "end": 2805.18, "text": "他真的漲上去了", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2805.18, "end": 2807.18, "text": "那我對他這間公司這個標誌", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2807.18, "end": 2808.18, "text": "質量不足", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2808.18, "end": 2810.18, "text": "那最後他正在漲", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2810.18, "end": 2811.18, "text": "我想說那是放著", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2811.18, "end": 2813.18, "text": "什麼時候賣不知道", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2813.18, "end": 2814.18, "text": "等到注意到的時候", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2814.18, "end": 2815.18, "text": "他都是跌回成本價", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2815.18, "end": 2816.18, "text": "或是開始賠錢", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.201844408332957, "no_speech_prob": 4.2794639359966524e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3611940298507463 }, { "start": 2816.18, "end": 2816.82, "text": "才會注意到", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2816.82, "end": 2817.24, "text": "或是想要", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2817.24, "end": 2818.82, "text": "才想要開始要處理它", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2819.24, "end": 2820.18, "text": "所以我跟他經驗不好", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2820.18, "end": 2820.98, "text": "是來自於這樣子", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2821.58, "end": 2822.88, "text": "所以我如果沒有做過功課", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2822.88, "end": 2823.68, "text": "我不懂的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2824.32, "end": 2824.98, "text": "都會有問題", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2824.98, "end": 2826.02, "text": "但自己做功課就爽", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2826.02, "end": 2827.62, "text": "對 所以後來就是疑慮不更", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2827.82, "end": 2829.62, "text": "但是你們覺得有研究", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2829.62, "end": 2831.32, "text": "會報在哪裡這件事情重要嗎", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2831.32, "end": 2832.12, "text": "應該不重要", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2832.12, "end": 2832.72, "text": "重要啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2832.72, "end": 2834.14, "text": "我這個研究是指", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2834.14, "end": 2834.64, "text": "就是", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2834.64, "end": 2835.44, "text": "MAY這個研究", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2835.44, "end": 2836.54, "text": "但我意思是很在意", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2836.54, "end": 2838.04, "text": "或是說很關注", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2838.04, "end": 2839.08, "text": "報在哪這件事情", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2839.08, "end": 2840.64, "text": "就是說你要追蹤這件事情", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2840.64, "end": 2841.58, "text": "你覺得重要嗎", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2842.34, "end": 2843.54, "text": "我這意我們專業投資人", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2843.54, "end": 2844.58, "text": "一定是重要的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2845.24, "end": 2845.68, "text": "對啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.34952533367982846, "no_speech_prob": 4.292438279818178e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5341246290801187 }, { "start": 2845.68, "end": 2847.98, "text": "我們的獲利不就是來自於", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2847.98, "end": 2849.58, "text": "比別人更快反應", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2849.58, "end": 2852.28, "text": "然後轉到更多中間的波動", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2852.28, "end": 2853.02, "text": "波動差嘛", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2853.02, "end": 2854.52, "text": "不管做空還做多", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2854.52, "end": 2856.72, "text": "所以這對我們一定是重要的", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2856.72, "end": 2858.92, "text": "對一般人可能就", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2858.92, "end": 2859.92, "text": "不一定", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2859.92, "end": 2861.52, "text": "還好 要這麼近", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2861.52, "end": 2863.54, "text": "我會覺得有答案給我看的地方", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2863.54, "end": 2864.84, "text": "我就想看啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2864.84, "end": 2865.3, "text": "對啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2865.3, "end": 2867.74, "text": "至少我們可以死定的那個地方", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2867.74, "end": 2869.98, "text": "就是每一次財報我會想追啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2869.98, "end": 2870.54, "text": "那你", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2870.54, "end": 2872.74, "text": "那我還是畫450罪財經動向", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2872.74, "end": 2874.24, "text": "欸", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.25928363142342403, "no_speech_prob": 1.6505866118343704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3450704225352113 }, { "start": 2874.24, "end": 2875.44, "text": "講話說真的喔", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -1.1103986852309282, "no_speech_prob": 2.6955606149958733e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9139784946236559 }, { "start": 2875.44, "end": 2876.74, "text": "對啊", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -1.1103986852309282, "no_speech_prob": 2.6955606149958733e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9139784946236559 }, { "start": 2876.74, "end": 2877.44, "text": "都愛演員", "chunk": 5, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -1.1103986852309282, "no_speech_prob": 2.6955606149958733e-11, "compression_ratio": 0.9139784946236559 }, { "start": 2877.44, "end": 2879.28, "text": "有個這麼熱情的人幫你", "chunk": 5, "language": 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