{
  "text": "其實這個議題很大\n因為我們要聊的是債\n跟所謂的股權\n沒錯\n對 這是大家很常忽略掉的\n就是說公司可以借錢\n然後你是股東\n然後我先講我理解的\n你一個公司如果要倒的話\n是先還債再給股東\n對 這個\n在最根本上有很大的不一樣\n就例如說Oracle\n沒錯\n那可是我們現在都是股東\n好\n所以我才說最後會回到散戶身上\n我不知道\n大家有沒有注意到這則新聞\n就是這則新聞\n對我也是一件很大的事情\n就是今年的六月\nNVIDIA宣佈了一件事情\n就是它要跟Apollo\n然後BlackRock\n還有高盛\n還有KKR這幾家頂尖的私募\n還有資產管理的巨頭合作\n就是它透過一個金融平臺\n去槓出五千億美元的第三方資本\n要去蓋AI的運算的基礎設施\n五千億美元是一個很大\n很大很大的數字\n你要想NVIDIA\n這間公司是一個賣鏟子的人\n他親自出來幫買鏟子的人找錢\n短期來說\n照理說它是一個很大的利好\n因為你需求有了 資金有了\n那你擴張的瓶頸也打通了\n但是這則新聞出來的那一天\n我記得NVIDIA股價是跌了3%\n因為我覺得這個反應\n會讓我開始想一個問題\n就是說這一輪AI的資本開支\n的這個金融槓桿\n是不是有點加太高了\n因為同一個季度\nGoogle上市以來的自由現金流\n我那次有分析嘛\n就是它第一次轉負\n那它負58.31億美元\n那過去兩年\n五大雲端的巨頭的資本開支裡面\n用借來的錢的支付的比重\n從9%跳到32%\n是差不多快4倍\n對 所以這幾家公司\n它開始在往房地產公\n司的樣子去轉\n就是我們這應該講好幾次了\n等於是說它一次要砸下去\n好多年才能回本的資本密集度\n然後再加上半導體那種\n兩三年就得換一輪的快速折舊\n它等\n於是它同時吃下了兩邊的負擔\n它都要吃\n所以市場給它的估值\n還是科技股的估值\n對 所以我想要做一件事情就是\n我想要把2000年的那些\nDotcom的劇本\n也不能說劇本\n過往的歷史翻出來對照\n比對一下它這一次哪裡不一樣\n哪裡一樣\n然後跟應該要看什麼關鍵數據\n好 所以我先講就是相似的部分\n第一個就是Azure它成長是45%\nAWS成長是37%\n是18幾來的最快\nGoogle Cloud成長是82%\n那其他部分的一些\n雲端基礎設施的單機成長是93%\n四家公司的財務長在法說\n會上面都講了一句話\n就是現在的需求是遠遠超過\n我們可以供給出來的產能\n然後再加上資料中心空置率\n沒有運轉的地方的部位\n就是連續兩年只有1%\n新建的產能有92%是在\n蓋好之前就已經先租出去了\n等於是它已經找好買家才蓋的\n所以現在其實還不是所謂的投入\n傳輸比在惡化的一個狀態\n我要先講我的立場\n我沒有看空 現在\n那2026年的上半年\n沒有任何的一家雲廠商是下修\n它的資本還是全部都上修了\n那為什麼我要講就是它跟\n2022 2000年有像的地方\n其實就是一個很類似一個囚徒\n困境的狀態\n因為像的地方\n其實不在於現在當下的狀態\n比較像是它的決策機制\n就是如果說\n我們現在可以回到2000年\n那時候不是\n電信商會瘋狂的鋪光線嗎？\n那網路的流量\n那時候確實也是在爆炸\n所以需求不是假的\n但是你事後看就是這些\n長期預設方向其實也是對的\n所以問題出在哪\n問題出\n在說它的建設週期要兩到三年\n但是所有人\n同時對同一個需求去下訂單\n那我們今天看到的缺貨\n其實是我三年前的決定造成的\n那你今天下的訂單\n三年後才會變成產能？\n所以比較精準的說法是說\n囚徒困境不是說你明明知道\n它不划算還加碼\n而是明明就是明知大家都在加碼\n你也不能停\n它比較像是一個軍備競賽的概念\n就是因為你誰先停了\n誰會在產能到位的那一天\n失去他的參賽資格？\n所以當初的光線其實沒有蓋錯\n它只是同一個時間點蓋太多\n那其實今天的GPU其實也是一樣\n就問題不是說AI沒有人用\n而是這個產能\n有可能會在同一年集中上線\n那一樣的地方還有第二個\n就是所謂的左腳踩右腳\n2000年它的引擎是所謂的股市\n就是你的網路公司靠你股市募資\n募資來的錢去買通訊設備\n設備商財報比較漂亮\n那股價就開始大漲\n那整個產業的估值也就往上拉\n那網路公司就可以更容易\n募到下一輪的股權融資\n那2026年的引擎是在債市上面\n就是AI模型巨頭籤\n下長期的算力合約\n然後運營廠商\n拿著這份合約去抵押借錢\n然後把這筆錢借到之後去蓋機房\n那未履約\n訂單的數字就會變得比較漂亮\n那估值就會撐得住\n信用評級也守得住\n然後就更容易發下一筆債\n那一樣的閉環\n就是你一樣的 每一步都步驟\n都是在為下一步步驟準備\n那差別就是差在這個燃料\n一個是股一個是債\n那當年燒的是散戶的錢\n這次燒的是債券市場的錢\n那再來看就是這個裂縫\n怎麼出現的\n就是這個泡泡\n總會有一個裂縫出現\n先講一件事情\n就是你用開車來做想像\n第一個就是速度\n速度其實就是你現在跑多快\n對應到公司\n就是說你今年的營收成長有多高？\n那另外一個東西叫加速度\n就是你在踩油門\n還是你把油門放掉了？\n對應到公司就是說去年成長68\n你今年成長48\n成長其實速度還在\n但是你的加速度在減\n對 那股價我要講\n它反映的東西不是速度\n是加速度\n在微積分裡面這好像叫什麼\n二階倒數？\n好\n這個我可以打斷了\n還是我要翻譯白話文\n翻譯翻譯\n就是以成長來講\n你從60到40的加速度\n你股價還是你還是在成長\n你還是在變好\n但你的變好的效率在變差\n那所以你還在好\n但你效率變差\n你的速度變慢\n那就其實對於股價而言\n對市場而言就是一個不好\n好你就想\n假如說你今天這輛車還在往前開\n你速度還是正的\n可是你腳從油門上鬆掉\n你坐在後座的那個人\n是不是覺得你減速了？\n是不是覺得你停\n甚至覺得你停滯了\n對\n所以市場就是你的那個後座乘客\n就突然往前\n他是這樣頓一下嘛\n對不對\n就會被罵\n對所以就是資本開支砸下去\n最多他只能推動的是速度\n那你推不動加速度這件事情\n所以你今天多蓋一座機房\n你收入當然會多一塊錢\n但是那是你自己花錢買來的\n不是新的人跑來跟你買\n加速度要持續再往上一定是\n這個內循環系統\n而外面多了一個新的需求進來\n這個系統\n所以今年上半年的加速度\n其實還是往上的原因是因為靠\nAI agent 跟 coding\n這兩塊真實的新的需求進來\n所以反過來說\n只要這個加速度開始下滑\n代表新增的收入\n已經對應不上新增的資本開支\n那那個時候要繼續蓋\n就只剩一條路\n就是再融資\n我這邊可以舉幾個例子\n第一個是2000年那時候\n還記得思科這間公司\n就是很慘的那間\n也是光纖網路的\n所以那時候企業採購的 CEO\n有出來說一句話\n就是說我們正在迴歸正常\n那時候思科的訂單\n還成長了40%\n就是隻是沒有以前那麼快\n但還是有成長\n那2006年房價還在漲\n但是次貸違約率有繼續往上\n怎麼講\n不是因為那時候房價跌\n是因為它漲得不夠快\n所以那些希望說三年後\n房子就可以漲價\n漲完價之後可以再融資\n換更低的利率的人\n就突然發現說他換不了了\n所以就開始違約了\n其實2026年\n就是今年Meta其實也說\n他要出售多餘的GPU\n這一則就是新聞\n那時候我們也有討論到\n那時候Meta其實我有分析過\n我覺得它比較像是產能錯配\n所以我暫時先不把它當成\n是一個很紅燈的訊號\n但是我要先講\n就是崩盤前的第一個訊號\n不是一個壞消息\n反而是一個沒那麼好的消息\n就是它的加速度開始減緩\n那假如說我今天抓不準\n抓不準它回頭的時間\n我也抓不準它就是回測的空間\n那我要怎麼辦\n就是加速度\n這個東西很討厭的地方\n就在於說它會演\n就是演一下\n就是假摔\n你以為減速了\n沒有\n我只是在迴游\n我在踩一次\n對\n迴游這個詞很好\n對\n所以就是2000年1月那時候\nNAS是連續兩週是下跌\n那跌幅將近10%到15%\n很多人就覺得說\n這個泡沫開始破了\n可是它接下來兩個月又漲了30%\n3月10號才真的見頂\n那你左側頭頂的代價是踏空\n你右側頭頂的代價是回測\n好\n左側頭頂\n你看那個人現在如果往上\n那你把它賣掉\n那股價還繼續往上\n你就是吃不到\n繼續往上那一段漲幅\n那如果說\n賣太早\n對\n那右邊回測\n右側頭頂的狀態下\n就是說\n好\n你在右邊確定已經回跌的狀態下\n你就已經先賣掉\n然後它就反彈了\n就繼續漲\n那你也是吃不到上面那一段漲幅\n那我要講這個原因是因為\n就是不論你是左側還是右側\n你一定要付出一種代價\n因為你不可能出在高點\n那個是老天保佑\n所以如果你抓不準\n就不要去抓\n對\n所以我覺得就是先分清楚\n你今天看的東西是什麼\n第一個就是假如說你看的是產業\n還是看的是金融\n看產業這件事情就是說\n你看這個\n這一個生意\n它本身發生是什麼事情？\n你貨賣不賣得掉\n你產能夠不夠\n你的價格是漲還是在跌\n你的老闆是在說\n我今天GP來不及做\n就是我做不出來\n我供給沒辦法跟上\n還是說我今天就是一個\n貨量回歸正常\n對\n這是看產業\n那看金融比較像是說\n你看借錢給這個做生意的人\n他在想什麼\n就是他還借得到錢嗎\n他利率跟半年錢是變貴\n還是變便宜？\n那發債有沒有人買\n所以一個是看你的\n生意做得好不好\n一個是看你錢還借不借得到\n那這兩個訊號的容錯率會差很多\n因為產業\n訊號有機會會做自我修復\n但金融訊號它會做自我實現\n好聽不懂\n一連問號\n好\n就是比如說你這一季度的訂單\n它表現不好\n那它可能客戶\n他只是把訂單遞延到下一季\n他可能積壓到下一季而已\n那你價格跌了\n你供給就會減少\n那你價格可能又會回來\n它有天然的供需的價\n格的回彈機制\n那你金融訊號剛好相反\n就是說市場覺得你有風險\n你的借貸成本就會上升\n你的現金流就真的變差\n你的市場就覺得你真的有風險\n所以它不會自己好回來\n就是這個東西只要一起動\n它就會自己坐實這個市場的猜測\n對\n所以就是我說的\n就是金融訊號\n會變成是一個自我實現的狀態\n那像2007年那時候6月底\n投資銀行\n它包銷的槓桿就是突然賣不掉\n光是美國就有2500億美元\n卡在銀行手上\n然後就是\n被迫認列進它自己的資產負債表\n所以可以怎麼做咧\n就是有四個方式\n第一個就是用條件決策\n不要用時間點決策\n就是你不要問說\n就是我什麼時候要賣\n而是問說我看到什麼時候\n我減多少？\n這個是先寫下來\n就比如說\n你可能看到某一條左側訊號\n減三分之一\n看到兩條左側訊號同時出現\n可能減到剩一半\n那右側訊號可能就出現了兩次\n你就把它清倉\n就是你自己可以設定一個條件\n它的好處在哪裡\n就是你不需要去預測它\n你只要需要辨識它\n有沒有出現就好了\n就是辨識比預測還要再簡單嘛\n對\n所以預測是我覺得會發生什麼\n辨識是我看到了什麼\n它對或不對\n所以你前者你不會有信心\n你後者就是\n基本上你只要肯做功課\n你一定做到\n對\n那第二個方式就是分批\n就是左右側用不同的節奏\n因為左側通常比較多預判性質\n所以你\n左側可以允許自己多戳一點\n右側出現你就需要謹慎處理\n這差別在這邊\n那這邊篇幅不夠\n我在Medium裡面會講\n左側要看什麼訊號\n右側要看什麼訊號\n這東西太多了真的\n好\n然後第三個就是\n就是按照誰靠再融資\n活著去做分類\n不是說誰漲最多來分類\n因為它決定的不是說你\n今天公司跌多少\n是你跌下去之後還漲不漲得回來\n因為你好的公司跌五成會漲回來\n你壞的公司跌五成它會GG\n那第四個就是心態上要先接受\n就我剛剛有說了\n你真的不太可能賣在最高點\n所以你賣早這件事情的成本\n你就要接受它是一個成本\n不是你自己的判斷失誤\n因為2000年真正跑掉的人\n不是預測對的人\n他是接受自己會踏空\n或者是接受自己會賣飛\n但是還是按照規則賣的人\n再來就是我要講的事情是\n這種系統性風險它的殺傷力\n其實會有很多波\n它不是隻有第一波而已\n因為像是WorldCom\n它那時候的這間公司\n它的會計違規從\n1999年就開始出現\n但是它是到2002年才被揭發的\n那為什麼拖了三年\n是因為你景氣好的時候\n你這件事情會被藏起來\n就是2000年之後電信化惡業\n就是電信業惡化\n然後我在講什麼\n惡業 對\n電信業惡化 對\n然後資本開始下降\n然後你的獲利的壓力也開始加大\n所以那些就是違規的部分\n就越滾越大\n然後就被爆出來\n所以你拖長這整個\n熊市的東西不是？\n通常不是我們說的那個吹哨者\n就是不是那一根\n最一開始那一根針\n其實\n真正會爆的是後面的連鎖反應\n錢可以爭一隻眼逼一隻眼的\n真的不好的時候\n大家就會放大鏡來看\n對 該爆就一個一個把它戳爆\n對 因為通常會是這樣\n就是你的估值會先跌\n然後你的資本開支會大幅收縮\n然後\n你的創業的融資可能就會被凍結\n那你的相關企業就會出現\n現金流惡化\n然後你的更多問題就被翻出來\n然後就會再跌一輪\n這可能是第一波\n這才是第一波\n這次是第二波 講錯了\n對 所以\n如果說這件事情真的發生了\n其實第一輪跌完不代表就結束了\n就是因為很多歷史上長期的熊市\n都是因為它後面\n還有第二次跟第三次的危機出現\n對摺還要再對摺\n股價的部分\n好 那我們剛\n前面講就是相似的地方嘛？\n然後後面有不是那麼相似的地方\n第一個就是我剛前面有講的\n就是2000年那\n時候是股權融資的問題\n那2020 26年是債券融資\n債權融資的問題\n那股權\n這個東西是一個可以慢慢等的錢\n那債務是一個你今天時間一到\n你就是要繳的錢\n對 就像你買房嘛\n假如說你是全款買房的\n全額付清的 跟你是貸款買房的\n那你全款買房的人\n你今天房價跌了30%\n你會覺得很痛\n但是不會有人來敲門跟你要錢\n就是你有等待的權利\n那如果說你今天是貸款買房的\n房價跌30%\n銀行會來跟你說你要補繳\n你補不出來房子可能就不是你的\n所以不管你多看好未來十年\n你有的是\n你要交錢的這件事情的義務\n那借錢給公司的人\n公司通常賺翻了\n他也只拿固定的股息\n所以公司出事了有可能會全賠\n所以債主這個生物\n是全世界最悲觀的一群人\n對 不要去挑戰他有多悲觀\n就是他不會等到你真的出事了\n之後他才跑掉\n他說你看起來還沒那麼順暢\n哪裡卡卡的時候他就開始出現\n他覺得我該跑了\n那股票\n這件事情會讓你覺得痛很久\n那債券會讓你痛得很短\n但是你甚至有可能來不及反應\n所以如果說這次真的\n有泡沫要消泡\n會來得很快\n因為這個順序是相反的\n就是2000年那時候是先殺估值\n那他從3月見頂\n然後到4月是跌破年限\n可是他的真正的起跌點是9月\n所以雖然很慘\n但是你也有時間反應\n這次的壓力點其實在債市\n因為債務\n這個東西沒有所謂的中間值\n你就只有融資成功或者是不成功\n如果融資成功\n就看起來什麼事情都沒有發生\n那如果說你今天債融資失敗\n你就是要面對你的資產查封\n什麼債券價格歸零這種事情發生\n所以這一次如果真的要盯的東西\n反而是\n你要盯那些高收益債的殖利率\n那你如果今天去盯\n大盤的股價會比較晚？\n然後再來\n另外一個不一樣的地方就是\n這一次的狀態比較像是\n唉\n那你腦袋中過了多少東西\n這是什麼意思\n你都把影片看完然後嘆氣我\n劇情是什麼\n他剛剛已經想過\n3000多萬怎麼可能？\n你說奇異果是不是\n好啦回來\n這一次\n是科技的風險加上房地產的槓桿\n好\n我們說科技工風險通常是假如說\n你在發展一個科技\n你做出來\n有可能會沒有人要的狀態\n你投100塊有\n可能全部都是歸零打水漂的\n但是你成功了\n你可能就是一個爆發性的成長\n然後而且是一個別人\n可能很難有跨越的一個科技壁壘\n那這種大部分會是\n就是如果成功的話\n可能會超級賺的東西\n比較適合股權？\n就是因為你\n股東通常就會做好一種心理準備\n就是反正我投進去\n有可能會賠光的心理準備\n但是他要的東西是你\n如果成功了我要你那個爆發\n那房地產的風險比較像是說你\n今天還不出錢的風險\n因為你土地不會消失\n你這個蓋好的這棟大樓\n他也不會就這樣憑空消失\n那你租金\n其實你也可以先預測他是多少\n甚至你做寫一個很長期的租約\n你去鎖定那個租金的價格\n那這種東西就會比較適合債權\n因為銀行\n他不需要跟你分你賺的暴利\n他要你的是穩定按時交錢\n所以我想要問\n就是其實我剛前面爆了\n就是大家覺得\nAI數據中心應該是哪一種？\n要用股權還是用債權\n只是覺得來講它是債權\n但它又會折舊\n對\n重點是在折舊一下\n因為房地產你50年折舊\n你算快一點可以算到50年\n你算爛一點可以到\n算好一點可以到25年\n而且如果以土地來講\n不一定會有折舊\n土地可能甚至99年都可能\n土地不會有折舊\n但數據中心真的很危險\n對啊\n所以我才說就是這一次的狀態\n比較像是\n你用房貸的那個還款去買一個\n你可能一兩年就迭代掉的東西\n他就算還沒折舊完\n搞不好隔年就有更強的晶片出來\n對\n所以我才會說一兩年\n我不會說就是\n現在科技股顧了三四年\n因為他新的技術\n這個東西就是推陳出新嘛\n你也很難說\n他可能就是三年一更新\n或兩年一更新或一年一更新這樣\n對\n很像買iPhone分三四年\n就是這種感覺\n對沒錯就是這個感覺\n所以現在的狀況就是現在的角色\n一個是包租公\n一個是二房東\n一個是大房客\n我現在講就是包租\n公就是蓋這個樓的人嘛\n其實跟臺灣的建商一樣\n就是他要先跟銀行界那個\n土建龍\n土建龍大家知道嗎\n土地建築融資\n就是他\n可以先跟銀行借一筆去買地\n對\n就是他會先跟銀行去借這筆錢\n然後把先把這個房子蓋起來\n然後等租客搬進來\n租金穩定進帳了之後\n再去換一筆就是長期低利的貸款\n把土建龍還掉\n那這個方式比較像是接力\n因為他不是一個疊加上去的東西\n但是這次的規模很不一樣\n這次的規模很大\n就是德州有個園區\n他的建設\n融資就已經到了220億美元\n對\n這跟我們蓋樓的那個\nskill是不一樣的\n那後面那一筆長期貸款\n在這邊叫做資產證券化\n就是你把未來收得到的租金\n打包成債券把它賣掉\n那2025年全球發行\n量超過250億美元\n比前三年加起來還要來得多\n這是所謂的包租公的角色\n那第二個東西叫二房東\n二房東是買GPU的人\n他跟包租公租了這棟樓\n然後把買了一大批的GPU放進去\n然後再切成一小份一小份\n租給租客去使用\n那GPU太貴怎麼辦\n他買不起怎麼辦\n他就成立了一家新公司\n然後 把那一批GPU跟客戶籤\n約的租約綁在一起\n拿去跟私募基金抵押借錢\n這是黃仁勳正在推動的事情\n對這就是黃仁勳正在做的事\n那重點是我要先講\n這邊有個關鍵的設計\n叫做無追索權\n追索權是什麼東西\n白話講就是\n這一間新的公司如果倒了\n你債主只能把你的GPU搬走\n你不可以來抄這個二房東的家\n因為是算力證券化\n對不是土地建築證券化\n所以你能搬的只能把GPU搬走\n對你的真的斷了\n你只剩GPU的殘值\n對\n你要自己去拆\n然後你去拿那GPU\n搞不好被超爆都不知道\n好 我們先不講他賣不出去\nGPU的問題\n假設他都可以穩穩的賣\n好 那真正的風險\n其實是這一棟樓的租金？\n就是這棟樓的租金其實是80%\n可能來自同一個大房客\n他的集中度非常的高\n就是你包租\n公拿這份租約去跟銀行借錢？\n然後你的二房東拿著同一批客戶的\n合約去借錢買設備\n然後你的投資銀行\n再把這些租金打包成商品\n賣給保險公司跟賣給退休基金\n所以這一棟樓他其實\n沒有被抵押四次\n但是這一次群人就是全部\n依賴這個大租客\n就是每個月來匯錢給他\n那如果說這個大租客\n只要delay一次？\n那這四組人會很痛會失眠\n因為這一次的合約裡面\n有寫他們玩法是\n我不看你這個二房東\n他看的是你二房東\n手上拿到的租約是租給誰？\n所以 重點就是 假如說\n他都是租給Google啊\nMicrosoft這種\n他有評級\n對評級非常好的公司\n他就說ok我願意借你錢\n因為你的租客非常好非常穩\n我願意借你很多錢\n所以其實所有的風險\n現在又全部回到\n大租客\n對這些頂級租客\n所以他們只要開始有問題\n會連鎖的報掉\n對會直接傳\n因為大家是盯著他給錢的\n然後我現在要補充更就是\n出事的時候會更慘的兩個細節\n第一個就是所謂\n他們有交叉違約條款\n假設你今天有三張信用卡\n來自同一間公司\n其中一張長不出來\n你的另外兩張也會直接鎖掉\n合理\n對那企業債務合約也是這樣寫的\n就是連動\n那第二個就是很多的錢\n不是憑這個租約去放？\n不是憑租金去放款的\n就是有專案融資的律師有說\n就是你很多現在的\n資料中心的這些貸款\n是按照就是已經簽約\n但是還沒有開始抽錢的\n這些租客的現金有去承諾\n白話說就是\nMaggie答應要給我錢\n他可能兩年後要給我\n我現在先找別人說\n你看Maggie又給我錢的\n對\n然後我就說對Maggie是好客戶\n我給你錢\n對就是你銀行看的那一份租約\n你撥了款\n但是你的租客還沒有搬進來\n他也還沒有付過一次的房租\n所以你的簽約日不等於說\n你的收錢日\n所以這個防火牆的質量\n我覺得大家要想一下\n他有牆嗎\n有啦\n這樣吧\n那我要講更危險的\n他有\n對 就是我前面有說\n就是你有無追索權？\n所以你的債主不能來抄家\n就聽起來比較安全\n就是雖然他那個牆很薄\n但還是有牆\n但這邊不是這樣\n因為你要想\n如果說今天這套防火牆真的有效\n那為什麼\n還要有別人來幫你籤這個保證書？\n就為什麼\n為什麼還要再找大哥\n對啊\n好我先講\n就是現在的真實情況\n比較傾向這樣\n就是有四種情況\n第一種就是很多的案子\n他附了一張所謂的殘值保證書\n就是這一批資產如果將來不值錢\n我保證會以多少的殘餘價買回\n但是像是Meta的Hyperion\n這個資料中心\n專案上面提供的殘值保證\n涵蓋了前16年\n規模281美元\n很大的一個數字\n然後也保證很久\n我不知道他為什麼敢開這種支票\n保證殘值\n為了去消滅所謂的那個\n折舊的風險\n他告訴你我保證會買\n我跟不到\n等一下殘值保證在哪一段\n誰跟誰有\n你看Meta在哪\nMeta是蓋樓的那個保主共\n所以是蓋樓的那個人跟\n他跟二房東講\n他跟二房東有個殘值保證\n對\n然後還有另外一個\n就是從今年開始\nNVDA還幹這件事\n就是他對部分客戶提供了\n6年的最低營收保證\n然後跟他在自己\n最新的融資平臺裡面\n就是提供最高25%的殘值保證\n就是你賣GPU的那一間公司\n自己下場\n替GPU這個東西的殘值背書\n就是有點像我賣賓士\n你跟他說我二手回收\n二手回收多少錢\n就是特斯拉幹過一樣的事情\n就是特斯拉的那個舊車換新車\n對\n特斯拉舊車換新車可能還有50%\n這個是25%\n剩25%\n嗯\n特斯拉很賤\n殘值25%\n我真的覺得他最近有點白白的\n又白白\n好\n現在的狀況還有第二種\n就是你的母公司\n通常是你唯一的房客\n就是他承諾長期租下來\n然後也承諾會照付不議\n甚至還提供所謂的信用擔保\n但是這一個東西\n就是法律上他只是股東\n經濟上\n他是那棟房子唯一的收入來源\n這個集中度有點太風險了\n第三個狀況就是\n如果他真的出事了\n法院不一定會買單\n什麼意思\n就是因為現在有一些\n律師事務所已經有看到\n如果說你的母公司透過保證租約\n跟營運控制 實質\n主導了這間新的公司的所有一切\n你的債權人可能會主張說\n這根本就是同一間公司\n所以他會要求所謂的穿透賠償\n法道說就是\n你把公司明面上看起來是分開的\n但是這個防火牆\n就是我們剛剛說的\n就是紫門\n所以他可能會這樣穿透過去的\n這個風險沒有消失\n他只是換了一個\n現在看起來不太吸引\n人的地方先待著\n好再來就是GPU折舊\n這個東西我們講好幾次了\n他算是整個估算\n裡面就是牽一髮動全身的東西\n所以我要講這是跟房地產\n那次的區別在哪？\n如果說你今天的抵押品是土地\n你沒有問題\n因為土地不會壞掉\n但如果說你今天的抵押品是GPU\n現在各大雲端巨頭的\n這些認列的使用年限相差很大\nAmazon的話是現在是5年\nMeta的話是5.5年\n微軟和Google的話是維持6年\n現場工程估算應該是3年\n這是一個\n那還有再來就是現在的\n租金數據其實也是打架的\n就是 H100的租金\n從2024年初是每小時7到10美元\n跌到2025年底是2到4美元\n那2026年又回升了\n現在的價格是2美元到\n3美元之間\n所以這個回升現在算是利多了\n我覺得還算利多了\n那目前的評級機構也是\n吵得非常兇\n就是標普是拒絕給AAA\n那其他什麼穆迪啊\n慧玉啊\n這些是給AAA的\n所以我覺得看標普比較準一點\n他上次對的就他\n所以他就是乖一點嘛\n他現在比較嚴格啊\n他就是乖一點嘛拜託\n可是重點是其他人還給到AAA\n對我不能理解\n我不懂為什麼穆迪可以給到AAA\n然後還有還沒講完\n風情還沒講完\n心好痛\n我們場外飄出一句心好痛\n沒有先等等\n先等等先等等\n先聽完先聽完\n然後再來一個就是現在債務\n這件事情開始往下蔓延了\n2000年這個債主要是壓在電信商\n他自己本身的制裁負債表上面\n所以你基本上只要看了財報\n你就會看得到他的債\n那現在這個債正在往外搬\n就是搬到了資料中心的開發商啊\n私募基金裡面啊\n電力專案融資裡面啊\n租賃就是算力租賃這些業者身上\n所以他蔓延出去了\n他不會只留在他身上\n所以你看我這五大巨頭的財報\n你會低估了整個系統的槓桿\n因為現在的規模有多大\n就是Meta的那個資料中心\n他有跟Blue Owl的合資 公司\n發行了一個\n272億美元的優先擔保債券\n票息是6.5%\n6.58%\n然後2049年才到期\n標普給A家\n呵呵呵\n他很有自信我可以撐到2049年欸\n然後目的有算過\n就是現在五大雲廠商已經簽約\n但還沒起訴的租賃合約\n大概合計是6620億美元\n所以等\n於是他們調整後的債務的113%\n還記得開頭\n我說NVIDIA的那個新聞\n就是他開始要組揪了\n那這個就是這件事情的\n下一個階段\n就會長這樣\n因為以前玩得起這種所\n謂的表外接待的\n就這五家嘛\n其他人沒有嘛\n因為第三方業者沒有這種信用嘛\n那現在NVIDIA出來揪團\n團購\n就是\n對啊不能只有你們玩我也要玩\n對 所以他把私募信貸的\n巨頭也拉進來了\n所以他這次開的是5000億美元\n的第三方資本引進\n客觀事實就是\n這一套玩法從最頂尖的這五家\n蔓延到了體質跟這五家有落差的\n中小型其他的算力的業者\n因為這幾家他這次拉進來\n這幾家私募信貸的巨頭\n他們就是放貸很靈活嘛\n速度很快嘛\n然後也比較支持創新的產業嘛\n但是他就是透明度低槓桿也高\n然後也沒有銀行\n必須要做壓力設施的這個條件\n而且這次銀行還放款哦\n對\n所以就是沒有人\n知道這裡面到底有多少雷包\n可是好消息是現在這六大巨頭\n私募信貸這六大巨頭錢是很多啦\n只是他們沒有足夠好的產品\n去吸引別人來買他們的東西\n對\n但是他2025年爆過\n也是這幾家哦\n好回過頭來\n就是講完風險\n我們要回來看嘛\n就是那這些收入到底\n有多少是真的？\n就是Google跟Amazon\n現在自由現金都是轉付了\n然後之前的AI的基礎建設\n主要是靠著他\n現在主業的現金來撐嘛\n就是所謂廣告雲端軟體\n跟電商的抽成\n那從今年開始會越來越像\n就是靠融資去驅動的\n所以這件事情的麻煩\n不是說他的槓桿這件事情而已\n而是他牽扯到他自己\n收入的真實性\n就是因為如果說你的收入不真實\n你會反過頭來增加你槓桿的風險\n對\n這邊的錢\n很多時候其實沒有真的付出去\n因為現在這些頂尖的AI模型公司\n如果說他真的只靠股權融資\n他恐怕連他的訓練費都付不出來\n所以\n現實中他們付給雲端廠商的錢\n很大一部分不是現金是記帳\n我捨得\n立牆上\n用抵銷\n什麼意思呢\n就是他抵銷方式有兩個\n就是一部分\n是這些雲廠商的投資款\n但是所謂的投資也不是給真錢\n而是把算力折就折成投資\n那一部分是用所謂的算力抵用券\n就是雲廠商\n他自己也是AI的使用大戶嘛\n所以他付給這個模型公司的分成\n用抵用券去對銷完了\n所以 剩下的才是我們\n現在大家看到所謂的ARR\n聽起來有點複雜對我解釋\n臺灣人一定聽得懂下一張\n大家有聽什麼蛋塔工廠嗎\n蛋塔狂熱\n就年輕一點可能不知道\n但是我用手搖飲來加盟\n這件事情應該就可以懂\n這個狀況就有點像是你今年一年\n開200家手搖飲料店的品牌\n你的總部財報會非常漂亮對不對\n因為你的加盟金\n你的機器設備\n你的原物料\n你每開一家新店\n基本上都是一筆新的營收\n對\n所以你的開店數的\n那個曲線是一路往上\n但是如果你今天去問一句啊\n你這200家店的錢是哪裡來的\n有一部分是總部直接\n借給加盟主的\n那一部分是用所謂的設備\n折抵加盟金的方式去做掉\n所以根本沒有現金真實的往來\n所以加盟主他一旦簽了約\n你的原料就只能跟總部進\n所以總部的營收會一直漂亮下去\n因為只要他願意借錢出去\n願意有人繼續開新店\n他就會一直營收漂亮\n那所以真正該問的問題就是一個\n你這200家店\n真正賣給客人的杯數\n有沒有跟著成長\n這就是所謂的\n用融資來創造需求的方式\n所以你從外面來看\n就是你這一條鏈\n看起來就是大家歌舞平生\n非常的繁榮\n就是你的雲端廠商增加資本開支\n買GPU蓋技法\n然後產生AI的服務收入\n然後AI公司再買雲服務\n然後形成新的收入\n然後模型廠再從雲端廠到雲端廠\n然後從資料中心到第三方\n算力租借業者\n然後從晶片廠到上游供應鏈\n這些訂單看起來都非常的熱鬧\n但是實際上就是你欠我的\n我欠他的他欠你的這樣\n大家可以稍微去看就是\n我假如是在NVIDIA\n我借錢給我\n底下的廠商來買我的晶片\n所以看起來大家的財報都很好\n我有買到東西\n然後我有收入我有賺錢\n但是這個錢其實是最\n上層的借給下面\n然後在中間的再借給下面的\n然後大家就牽一牽就這樣繞一圈\n所以\n剛剛Maggie講的整個重點就是\n好你們這樣繞沒關係你們儘量繞\n但外面到底有沒有真的人\n花錢來買你們的產品\n或買你們的服務\n對這個東西其實\n這樣的商業模式\n我們生活中就有了\n臺灣就有案例\n對就是有案例就是可以看得出來\n所以講白就是現在的AI的收入\n缺乏所謂的獨立性\n就是他不是從他AI的生態裡面\n自己長出來的錢\n那到底什麼才叫做真實的需求\n就是投資AI產業鏈這個東西\n你其實不能只看訂單\n因為關鍵是就是這些需求\n有多少是來自最終用戶\n你有多少是來自產業內部的錢\n去轉出來的\n那後者我不會說\n它是一個假的需求\n但是這個需求要打折\n甚至打對摺\n那真正獨立需求是\n你要扣除雲端廠商的資金\n一些投資啊\n算力率付款啊\n算力抵用券這些之後\n阿里阿搭之後\n那些純粹用現金流付出來的錢\n收入啦\n這些人才是真正願意\n長期付錢的人\n那現在問題就是\n這個數字是\n現在目前沒有人可以統計出來\n因為它真的太亂了\n所以有一個替代指標\n就是我前面講那個加速度\n就是現在因為現在資本開支\n你不管怎麼砸嘛\n你對最多你只能推動的是速度\n那你這個加速度要繼續往上\n一定是我剛剛說的\n你這個內循環外面\n有多了新的力量進來\n有額外的新的需求進來\n有新的進來加速度才會上\n對所以一定要有新進來\n才會有加速度\n現在唯一能看的就是加速度\n好來啦\n最後最後誰要扛債呢\n如果真的發生了系統性風險\n誰要還錢呢\n如果說你把AI的基礎建設的債務\n你一層一層往下傳導\n你會發現最後扛的人\n跟我們一開始想的會不太一樣\n因為一開始我們一定想說\n那一定就是那五大雲服務廠商嘛\n但不是\n因為第一層表面上的承擔者\n就是所謂的AI模型跟運營廠商\n因為這些都是局吧\n就很多人認為說\nAI債務風險不大的原因\n也是因為\n他們之間有所謂的長期合約\n他承諾\n未來十年可能會採購多少專利\n那會計上這個東西不會\n顯示為債務？\n實質上\n就是拿未來的現金流去做擔保\n那第二層就是越來越多的\n實際借款人\n其實是資料中心的專案的公司\n就是他會成立一家特殊目的公司\n負責買地負責建設負責承擔債務\n那收入主要來自這些模型\n公司的長期租賃費\n法律上債在這家公司\n但是運營廠商看不到\n我們其實在Google財報\n那一集解析的時候有說\n還有他的債其實藏\n在他額外的一個小公司上面\n其實就妹剛剛前面講的\n他母公司Google當然\n會開其他子公司\n去做這些借貸跟這些操作\n所以你們兩個要並在一起\n對 就是 你可以從Google那一集\n再看到這一集\n你應該懂我在講什麼\n好 那第三層就是早期的債權\n在銀行裡面\n就是很多人\n從銀行的財務狀況去判斷說\nAI的融資\n有沒有在大規模的金融風險？\n對 但是銀行\n他通常不會長期持有全部風險\n他會打包成證券化商品賣出去\n就跟其實08年一樣\n就是你傳統銀行的\n財務看起來很安全\n不代表說社會\n上面有所謂的金融險\n對 第四層\n就是所謂的真正的最終的債權人\n是機構投資者\n就是你證券化商品其實是賣\n給所謂的退休金和保險公司？\n因為他們對於這種長期現金流的\n投資基債券\n他們的配置需求非常的高\n那當然還有中央公司在\n後面就是幫他們背書\n所以最後\n實際承擔人其實是一般的投資人\n因為是我們去買了這些商品\n因為是你的退休金\n去買了這些商品\n是你的保險公司\n幫你去買了這些商品\n所以你的保單跟你的退休金\n可能已經在裡面了\n只是你不知道而已\n好 那我們就來看\n就是現在最脆弱的地方在哪？\n就我剛剛其實對外的時候有講到\n就是誰會先最早感受到壓力\n跟誰出事真的會最慘\n其實\n最早的成壓的應該會是AI的應用\n跟一些小型的新創公司\n因為算力會越來越 算力貴嘛\n那再來是他競爭激烈\n那收入可能會低於成本\n雖然他成長很快\n但是 基本上\n他的客戶只要砍掉他的AI運算\n或者是他的Token去打他價格戰\n那這些公司會死得最快\n那再來是資料中心的營運商\n因為他的資產非常的重\n他負債率很高\n他收入會依賴少數大客戶\n然後同時GPU會加速折舊\n那這些大客戶開始減少採購啊\n或者是他空置率一旦上升的話\n這些新一輪的融資可能拿不到錢\n那他就會陷入開始陷入債務\n危機的這個循環裡面\n所以他這個會比較接近就是所謂的\n房地產開發商的那個狀態\n但是最危險的其實還不是這兩個\n最危險的就是像 我點名了\n就是CoreWeave這樣的公司\n就是他是高槓杆的第三方\nGPU租賃的公司\n就是我們之前講過二房東的角色\n對 因為你技術包裝再好\n或者是你的核心商業的模式\n就是大量買GPU去做出租嘛\n那他現在賺的錢就不是價差\n還有所謂的算力的溢價\n那但是他的槓桿非常的高\n就是他現在的債務股本比是13.8\n對 然後他的調整後的營業\n利潤率是指引給的是8%\n然後遠低於長期目標25%到30%\n而且他的合約基本上\n已經全部抵出去了\n所以一旦他的收入成長低於預期\n或者是低於GPU折舊的速度\n他的資產減值的這個壓力\n會很快地把他的資產\n負債表給壓垮\n對 那反而像是五大的\n雲廠商跟NVIDIA\n他反而是這條\n鏈上面比較有承重能力的公司\n因為他的資產負債表比較強\n他的客戶也比較多\nAI只是他是現在雲業務的一部分\n那囤GPU就算AI需求下降\n他也還是可以拿回去跑\n他自己本身的雲端的運算\n所以他們這些\n公司反而比較容易做的事情是\n他的估值會重複\n可是這一次如果說是\n從債務上這邊爆發的估值重複\n應該折個三成到五成\n我覺得也是有概率會發生\n那有一支要另外單獨拎出來講\n就是Oracle\n因為他是這一輪擴張\n裡面相對激進的公司\n他現在還本複息率是48%\n所以他的體質比較接近\n重資產的地產公司\n所以他也是要稍微注意一下的\n那再來就是最上層的\n就是所謂的AI模型公司\n就是OpenAI跟Anthropic\n就是他們的融資是以股權為主\n還沒有到硬性的\n就是硬性到期的債務的方式融資\n如果說他沒有上市\n反而相對是安全的\n因為Anthropic現在的收入有\n80%是來自企業客戶\n這些客戶的黏著性比較強\n收入也比較穩定\n相比之下OpenAI就比較脆弱\n那波動性也比較大\n因為他的收入有60%是來\n自個人消費者\n那講不好聽一點\n就是個人消費者\n就是一種另類的牆頭草\n就是誰好用我就用哪一個\n所以再加上他的現金\n消耗率非常高\n他說在\n2027年之前都會維持在57%左右\n所以兩個一比\n你就知道誰比較安全一點\n好 最後\n你覺得現在到了轉折點了嗎\n我先講嗎\n我覺得是這樣\n我覺得他黃仁勳雖然看起來\n這個操作有非常多的風險在裡面\n當然不得不說\n他也等於是解救這一群\nAI公司短期的渴望\n因為他們現在缺錢\n他們需要更多資金\n那傳統方法其實已經都不夠用\n而且他接下來要\n借錢只會成本越來越大\n他利息必須付出越來越高的力量\n才有辦法借到\n黃仁勳找這六大巨頭\n來做這件事情\n我覺得短期會幫到他們\n所以我覺得雖然我們要注重風險\n但我還是會再玩一下\n但只要加速度開始減緩\n我一定會跑一批\n我一定會先跑\n我沒有要客氣的\n對\n因為我們剛才有講到\n這一次的結構\n如果未來真的要炸的話會一瞬間\n那個速度會很快\n所以我只要有苗頭不對就開始減\nMaggie其實把這一次的\n交易的策略講得非常清楚\n我沒有預料到他會講這麼清楚\n所以我覺得審慎樂觀吧\n我會繼續跟他玩\n那有任何的蛛絲馬跡\n我應該跑得比大家還快啦\n對\n記得講\n因為他們\n如果有把那個正循環做起來\n他再往上衝的機率是有的\n他往上衝那個漲幅也會蠻可觀的\n那老實講\n我現在還沒覺得到反轉的那個點\n我覺得短期之內也還不會到\n第一個原因就是\n他們的財務長都有\n出來說現在產能不夠\n就是微軟 亞馬遜跟Alphabet\n這三家公司的財務長都有出來說\n就是我們\n現在還是供給受限的狀況下\n對\n第二個就是他的積壓\n訂單已經是簽約的現金了\n那四家合計是2.33兆美元\n單季增量是AWS是1320億\nOracle是加了850億\nGoogle Cloud是加了510億\n但是我覺得這個東西還是\n要看所有的品質\n因為像微軟的商用位履約\n訂單的成長總額是84%\n那排除OpenAI之後只剩25%\n所以你的每一家公司\n你還是要去看它的品質好不好\n對\n第三個就是這個東西\n是以年紀的瓶頸\n先進封裝就是現在已經緊張到\n就是臺積電財務長有說嘛\n就是正在\n甚至限制我的客戶的成長\n所以HBM2026年已經完全賣完了\n那你的\n就是我們之前有說過的燃氣渦輪機\nWarranty\n這個東西的等候名單是\n等了3到4年\n等於是訂單是排到2028到2029\n那你的變壓器的交付的年限\n也是很久？\n那還有就是很多我之前有說的\n就是併網排隊的\n這個年限也是超過5年以上\n所以這些瓶頸解除的時間\n不是以季來計算\n是以年來計算\n所以這個供需在物理上很難在\n2026跟2027年反轉\n所以我覺得先短期先不要擔心\n那現在需求其實還是在放大的啦\n就是因為Google之前有說嘛\n就是它每個月Token的處理量\n就是兩年成長了330倍\nAgentic AI的單次任務的消耗量\n是傳統對話的100到1000倍\n所以這個需求曲線的這個斜率\n還是有在變抖不是變緩\n對 所以目前的狀況下比較像是\n現在這兩個時鐘是不同步的\n因為債務累積是一個線性的過程\n那技術革命是一個非線性的過程\n線性的過程的意思是說\n你的債務每年就是那樣累積嘛\n你也知道就是它一直可以\n可預測有時間表有倒\n其實有白紙黑字的合約\n對 所以它就是按照時間表來做事\n那非線性的意思是說\n你今天的技術有可能出現了\n哪一個奇異點？\n或者它技術可能會突然加速\n也有可能突然停滯\n就是\n它是一個沒有明確時間表的東西\n所以危險不會在於說\n就是這個技術會不會成功\n而是說\n今天這兩個時鐘是不同步的\n它會有點像是龜兔出來跑\n就是你一隻隨時可能睡著的兔子\n去追一隻永遠不會休息的烏龜\n就是你不是在賭說\n這隻兔子會不會跑得比烏龜快\n你在賭它說這一段路上面\n它會不會突然睡著\n它的主業很強\n只是代表說它危機\n爆發之前的時間會更長\n不代表它不會爆\n所以我們可以看什麼\n第一個就是\n現在我很在意這個東西\n就是現在Token的單\n價下跌的速度\n是快於用量成長\n我不知道大家有沒有觀察到\n就是企業的Token使用量\n從2025年初到2026年4月\n成長10倍\n但是支出只成長了5倍\n什麼意思\n就是你的用量爆炸\n跟你的營收爆炸是在脫鉤的\n那換句話說\n就代表說\n你的單位Token的價格是在跌的\n跌的可兇了\n對\n那第二個就是看積壓訂單的品質\n不是規模 剛前面有講\n然後第三個就是看\n供給延誤造成的時間差\n因為現在有報導指出\n就是2026年美國規劃數據中心\n有1⅓到1⅔是延誤或取消的\n它預計規劃容量是12到16GW\n實際在建的只有5GW\n所以延遲的原因主要是因為\n電力跟供應鏈？\n不是需求\n所以現在還是供不應\n求的證據擺在這\n但你要想一個問題\n如果說它把產能同時推遲到\n2027到2028年間\n如果延誤的產能\n同時在2027年集中上線\n那那個時候單價\n因為價格在已經跌了一大截\n然後再加上產能一次到位\n跌價低單價\n這是一個不好的組合\n我覺得可以用一個\n簡單的分類去分\n就是這是在做債務評級的分類\n第一類就是所謂的\n你的薪水本金加上利息都付得起\n那第二類就是說\n你只付得起利息本金會一直拖\n然後第三類就是\n你連利息都還要再借錢來繳\n這就是我們說的龐氏騙局\n第二類的人\n平常看起來會跟第一類的人一樣\n差別就是他在說\n就是哪一天\n銀行會不會不再和你續約？\n所以銀行會不會續約\n跟你房子好不好的關係不大\n跟當時的市場的景氣有關\n這就是為什麼剛說就是主業很強\n不等於他不會出事\n那我們一樣把加速度的概念\n拿過來這邊看\n就是你\n需求成長的加速度開始下滑\n那第一類就有可能會變成第二類\n那你的加速度跌破成0\n也就是說你的成長停滯了之後\n就會完全變成第二類\n而且很難靠自己再走回去\n所以盯加速度的重點在於說\n你要盯這家公司什麼時候衝\n會從就是不用看銀行臉色\n變成你今天要看銀行臉色的公司\n因為像是Google跟Amazon\n他們現在已經是現金流轉付了嘛\n就是剛跨進第二類的門檻\n那微軟跟Meta現在還在第一類\n那資本開支不控制\n可能也會去第二類\n那Oracle是早就已經在第二類\n那為什麼剛剛就像講的美債\n看起來像第三電\n這是一個世界上最大的社會實驗\n然後好 我直接做最後總結\n就是你不要把股票的\n風險跟債券的風險\n把它混為一談\n就是因為股東今天問的東西是說\n你的AI這個技術有沒有價值\n你未來可以賺多少錢\n那你的債主問的是說\n我今天這幾千億\n砸下去的固定資產\n未來可以產生多少現金流\n它夠不夠付我資本的這些成本\n所以兩個其實是完全\n不一樣的問題\n那過去兩年\n這些股價只回答第一個問題\n就只回答一個啦\n對 所以就是\nAI的長期風險是需求量不夠\n但是目前這個東西其實我不擔心\n因為需求期限\n我們剛剛有說它還在繼續變動\n那它的滲透率其實也還在上升\n那技術也還在進步\n所以這個東西我先不擔心\n那短中期累積的風險是\n你的資本開支的速度\n會超過你真實現金流產生的速度\n那這個問題其實也要好幾年\n才會有答案\n然後可是你資本開支的速度\n有沒有超過你\n真實現金流產生的速度？\n這個東西\n其實每一季財報都會給答案\n所以財報要看\n那我們現在其實看到就是\n現在消耗的這個時間\n節點還沒有到\n但是融資開始往下滲透跟蔓延的\n這件事情已經開始發生了\n確實已經開始發生了\n那從9%到32%這件事情\n是一定發生的\n它不會因為說今天需求很好\n就把我借來的錢全部還給銀行\n這不合理\n因為這些公司的運作邏輯不是會\n我要去還錢\n而是我要去想著\n我怎麼借更多錢來把它錢省錢\n所以這個比例大概率是不會\n壓回去的\n那大部分的問題其實都集中在\n源頭的OpenAI跟Anthropic身上\n就是你下一個爆發的新需求\n到底什麼時候出現\n我相信一定會有\n但是關鍵是那個時間點\n要撐得過去\n對\n它不能比就是全部集中在\n2027年完全上線\n一起集中上線的時候\n之後它才兌現說就是有需求\n這件事情就不太ok\n所以關鍵是那個時間點\n所以\n如果今天走了一個最壞的狀況\n我覺得劇本大概是這樣\n就是最前面的融資條件\n開始出現裂縫\n就是你的融資\n某一輪的估值上不去了\n然後接著是某型公司\n還會開始保留現金\n然後會縮減對算力的承諾\n那這等於是你的合約會違約\n那你的性質有點像是房地產泡沫\n那時候的第一批爛尾樓出現了\n那你的違約就會打擊到你的\n高槓杆的那些惡房東\n那買GPU和出租GPU的這些\n利差會開始\n怎麼講\n支不抵債\n對\n那最後會是整個\nAI體系的信用都崩壞 凍結\n所以\n你的未履約的義務會被重新定價\n成就是交易的風險\n那以GPU擔保的\n這些票券是沒有辦法展期的\n那你的上游的供應鏈\n有可能會就開始大面積\n以資產會減值\n所以這個地方有一個\n跟房地產最大的不同\n就是你的技術其實有在進步的\n你滲透率其實有在上升\n你的需求也是有在成長\n只是現在的基礎建設\n的時間配置沒配好\n所以到最後\n有可能反而那些資本最雄厚的\n在這一輪投入最謹慎的\n那你的風險場口最小的參與者\n有機會用極低的價格買下來\n那些被爛尾的樓\nApple就進進來看著你們借錢\n你要記得\n歷史上的每一次泡沫都是這樣\n就是你泡沫破掉的時候\n這些錢沒有消失\n只是換了一個人拿這些錢\n通常換到那個人在很狂熱的時候\n是很理智在算報酬率的人\n好棒棒BRK\n好啦\n耶我終於結束啦\n帥\n有要問問題沒\n有人問啊\n舉手二手GPU沒有定價模型嗎\n不是二手飛機啊\n到時候怎麼定義二手價值\n應該會是幾何定價\n就是用撮合的方式定價\n有期貨就會有定價\n對\n事情都是一樣的\n這樣看起來絕對比8年跟\n00年是一樣的\n大家只是把那\n上次兩次教訓學起來\n兩個融在一起再玩一次\n對啊\n應該就是兩次\n兩個事件的問題點再發生一次\n融在一起\n告訴你這次不一樣\n對確實不一樣\n對這樣特別辣\n兩個然後尬作會這樣\n然後把兩邊的好的不\n學學壞的這樣\n對全部學壞的\n我先講一下我自己的論點\n包含那個美債啊\n其實很早之前我們就有探討過\n美債是不是一行詩篇\n但你其實仔細想想\n它就是一個資金的迴圈\n就是這個迴圈要轉動\n就跟Maggy講的一樣\n你要找到新的球\n或是說真的有人買單\n其實有人買單就代表有繞出去\n就是你要讓這個\n你不要只是一個內循環\n你的內循環有在接收一點\n外面的力量進來\n就是這個圈圈\n這個球是有互相拋來拋去\n然後不能只在同一小旋環\n要把這球拋出去\n對\n美國人就是最會拋來拋去\n對\n那事實也證明\n當美國人拋不動的時候\n他就會找別人抱\n找別人去抱別人\n要抱的時候他就會丟給某一個人\n那現在看起來美債也是\n比較壓力比較有？\n那誰可以被犧牲\n就是一個好人的議題\n因為我覺得這也沒有那麼單純啦\n就是說都是槓桿都是債務\n那誰會被犧牲是可以被考量的點\n所以我覺得這次事件\n我自己判斷的結尾\n也會是這樣的點\n就是看犧牲誰\n然後範圍多大\n對\n那我覺得這些東西\n在過程當中都會有蛛絲馬跡\n只是那個時機點還沒到\n對\n但是我也要講就是\n我們明明現在講出來\n就是因為我希望他對這件事情\n對你們而言是個灰犀牛\n不是個黑天鵝\n如果你們知道他是個灰犀牛\n就是你知道他\n總有一天會發生這件事情\n只是你不知道什麼時候發生\n那你就可以先做好準備\n有人問灰犀牛跟黑天鵝差別在哪\n黑天鵝就是你完全突如其來\n意料之外發生的事情\n但如果這件是灰犀牛\n就是你知道他存在在哪\n只是你不知道他什麼時候\n朝你衝過來\n我覺得這就是套用回投資的\n那個邏輯啦\n就是說在這個情況下\n你真的就是半上車半不上\n除非你的\n你投入的資金真的\n太龐大到會影響\n那你可能上的比例就要再考量\n因為你看像巴菲特的邏輯\n就是因為他現金放在那邊也沒差\n那就放\n但是如果你這個成長對你來講\n還是有蹭的必要還是要\n對呀\n不能完全下降\n對呀\n我覺得這個是\n很好的議題\n而且坦白講啦\n看他們這樣搞\n真沒有不報的理由啦\n對呀\n然後我再套用\n他還出來主揪\n這你覺得真的是EU北北\n我給大家一個數字啦\n就是我剛才\n之所以一直用電腦就這樣\n我查了五大\n就是前五大巨頭\n前七大前八大\n所有我想得到的四個英文字母\n能抽出來的公司\n過去三年真的沒有人買股票啦\n公司內部人沒有買股票\n只有馬斯克\n象徵意義的帶著手衝了一次\n有的他買蠻多的\n有的特斯拉\n其他沒有\n對他那個象徵意義比較大\n對還有一堆\n行銷費行銷費\n還有一堆臺積電的股東\n不知道為什麼要十萬十萬臺幣買\n我不懂\n有什麼毛病\n這中高階管理層他投月薪嗎\n你知道那個報表超長的你知道嗎\n除此之外\n所有管理層沒有人在買\n全部是賣股票\nGoogle Microsoft Amazon\n我那時候跟Jon一起查\n三年內沒有人買\n只要是大科技的\n你如果是傳統股可能還有一點\n比如說可能迪士尼可能還有人買\n但是這些大科技真的一點都沒有\n但是你如果說要重倉可以想一下\n還不是時候啦\n除非你功課做得很足啦\n你覺得這就是你的戰略\n你就是\nfuck所有AI公司\n那也是沒有不行\n我覺得不適宜一個計策啦\n我覺得就這樣\n你有你的策略就去執行\n對不對\n不論Maggie多專業\nEric多厲害\n你有你的想法你就去做\n你最後賺到錢就好了\n你不用跟別人比\n最怕就是要比\n請歡迎收聽我們的今朝悠遊節\n其實這個不用比\n我反而覺得\n你有一個自己很篤定的看法\n然後你執行了\n你賺到錢\n那真的\n舒服\n自己感覺是最好的\n對\n我個人的跟單經驗都不好啦\n因為哪怕我跟下去\n他真的漲上去了\n那我對他這間公司這個標界\n只是量不足\n那最後他正在漲\n我想說是放著\n什麼時候買不知道\n等到注意到的時候\n他都是跌回成本價\n或是開始賠錢\n我才注意到\n或是才想要開始要處理他\n所以我跟單經驗不好\n是來自於這樣\n所以我如果沒有做過功課\n我不懂的\n都會有問題\n但自己做功課就爽\n對\n所以我後來就是一律不更\n但是你們覺得有研究\n會報在哪裡這件事情重要嗎\n應該不重要\n重要啊\n我這個研究是指\n就是Maggie這個研究OK\n但我是說很在意\n或是說很關注\n報在哪這件事情\n就是說你要追蹤\n這件事情\n你覺得重要嗎\n我覺得我們專業投資人\n一定是重要的\n對啊\n我們的獲利不就是來自於\n比別人更快反應\n然後賺到更多中間的波動\n波動差吧\n不管做空還做多\n所以這對我們一定是重要的\n一般人可能就\n不一定要這麼近\n我會覺得有答案給我看的地方\n我就想看啊\n對啊\n至少我們可以死定的那個地方\n就是每一次財報\n我會想嘴啊\n那我還是畫四百五嘴財經動向\n蠻畫幻的\n對啊\n你們這麼熱情就來幫你\n得分\n好厲害",
  "language": "zh",
  "duration": 2891.302313,
  "segments": [
    {
      "start": 16.249,
      "end": 17.517,
      "text": "其實這個議題很大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 17.517,
      "end": 19.386,
      "text": "因為我們要聊的是債",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 19.386,
      "end": 20.954,
      "text": "跟所謂的股權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 21.388,
      "end": 21.788,
      "text": "沒錯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 21.788,
      "end": 24.024,
      "text": "對 這是大家很常忽略掉的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 24.024,
      "end": 25.225,
      "text": "就是說公司可以借錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 25.225,
      "end": 26.159,
      "text": "然後你是股東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 26.159,
      "end": 27.694,
      "text": "然後我先講我理解的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 27.694,
      "end": 29.496,
      "text": "你一個公司如果要倒的話",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 30.563,
      "end": 32.365,
      "text": "是先還債再給股東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 32.365,
      "end": 33.466,
      "text": "對 這個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 33.466,
      "end": 36.236,
      "text": "在最根本上有很大的不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 36.236,
      "end": 37.137,
      "text": "就例如說Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 37.737,
      "end": 38.138,
      "text": "沒錯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 38.738,
      "end": 40.874,
      "text": "那可是我們現在都是股東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 40.874,
      "end": 41.174,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 41.174,
      "end": 43.076,
      "text": "所以我才說最後會回到散戶身上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 43.076,
      "end": 43.643,
      "text": "我不知道",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 43.643,
      "end": 46.246,
      "text": "大家有沒有注意到這則新聞",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 46.246,
      "end": 47.08,
      "text": "就是這則新聞",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 47.08,
      "end": 48.515,
      "text": "對我也是一件很大的事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 48.515,
      "end": 49.582,
      "text": "就是今年的六月",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 49.582,
      "end": 50.784,
      "text": "NVIDIA宣佈了一件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 50.784,
      "end": 51.751,
      "text": "就是它要跟Apollo",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 51.751,
      "end": 52.652,
      "text": "然後BlackRock",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 52.652,
      "end": 53.653,
      "text": "還有高盛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 53.653,
      "end": 55.922,
      "text": "還有KKR這幾家頂尖的私募",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 55.922,
      "end": 57.424,
      "text": "還有資產管理的巨頭合作",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 57.424,
      "end": 59.559,
      "text": "就是它透過一個金融平臺",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 59.559,
      "end": 63.229,
      "text": "去槓出五千億美元的第三方資本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 63.229,
      "end": 65.231,
      "text": "要去蓋AI的運算的基礎設施",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 65.231,
      "end": 67.133,
      "text": "五千億美元是一個很大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 67.133,
      "end": 68.601,
      "text": "很大很大的數字",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 68.601,
      "end": 69.536,
      "text": "你要想NVIDIA",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 69.536,
      "end": 71.337,
      "text": "這間公司是一個賣鏟子的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 71.337,
      "end": 74.34,
      "text": "他親自出來幫買鏟子的人找錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 74.34,
      "end": 75.108,
      "text": "短期來說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 75.275,
      "end": 76.576,
      "text": "照理說它是一個很大的利好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 76.576,
      "end": 78.211,
      "text": "因為你需求有了 資金有了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 78.211,
      "end": 79.979,
      "text": "那你擴張的瓶頸也打通了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 79.979,
      "end": 81.848,
      "text": "但是這則新聞出來的那一天",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 81.848,
      "end": 83.683,
      "text": "我記得NVIDIA股價是跌了3%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 83.683,
      "end": 84.984,
      "text": "因為我覺得這個反應",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 84.984,
      "end": 86.519,
      "text": "會讓我開始想一個問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 86.519,
      "end": 89.422,
      "text": "就是說這一輪AI的資本開支",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 89.422,
      "end": 90.89,
      "text": "的這個金融槓桿",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 90.89,
      "end": 92.625,
      "text": "是不是有點加太高了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 92.625,
      "end": 93.693,
      "text": "因為同一個季度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 93.693,
      "end": 95.161,
      "text": "Google上市以來的自由現金流",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 95.161,
      "end": 96.496,
      "text": "我那次有分析嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 96.496,
      "end": 97.697,
      "text": "就是它第一次轉負",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 97.697,
      "end": 99.833,
      "text": "那它負58.31億美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 99.833,
      "end": 100.9,
      "text": "那過去兩年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 100.9,
      "end": 102.669,
      "text": "五大雲端的巨頭的資本開支裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 102.669,
      "end": 104.504,
      "text": "用借來的錢的支付的比重",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 104.504,
      "end": 106.239,
      "text": "從9%跳到32%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 106.239,
      "end": 107.841,
      "text": "是差不多快4倍",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 108.508,
      "end": 109.943,
      "text": "對 所以這幾家公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 109.943,
      "end": 111.978,
      "text": "它開始在往房地產公",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 111.978,
      "end": 112.979,
      "text": "司的樣子去轉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 112.979,
      "end": 115.315,
      "text": "就是我們這應該講好幾次了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 115.315,
      "end": 116.983,
      "text": "等於是說它一次要砸下去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 116.983,
      "end": 119.652,
      "text": "好多年才能回本的資本密集度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 119.652,
      "end": 120.954,
      "text": "然後再加上半導體那種",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 120.954,
      "end": 122.889,
      "text": "兩三年就得換一輪的快速折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 122.889,
      "end": 123.556,
      "text": "它等",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 123.556,
      "end": 126.259,
      "text": "於是它同時吃下了兩邊的負擔",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 126.259,
      "end": 126.993,
      "text": "它都要吃",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 127.46,
      "end": 128.895,
      "text": "所以市場給它的估值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 128.895,
      "end": 130.43,
      "text": "還是科技股的估值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 130.43,
      "end": 131.865,
      "text": "對 所以我想要做一件事情就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 131.865,
      "end": 133.9,
      "text": "我想要把2000年的那些",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 133.9,
      "end": 135.235,
      "text": "Dotcom的劇本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 135.235,
      "end": 135.935,
      "text": "也不能說劇本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 135.935,
      "end": 138.104,
      "text": "過往的歷史翻出來對照",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 138.104,
      "end": 139.939,
      "text": "比對一下它這一次哪裡不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 139.939,
      "end": 140.44,
      "text": "哪裡一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 140.44,
      "end": 142.876,
      "text": "然後跟應該要看什麼關鍵數據",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 142.876,
      "end": 145.078,
      "text": "好 所以我先講就是相似的部分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 145.078,
      "end": 147.213,
      "text": "第一個就是Azure它成長是45%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 147.213,
      "end": 148.982,
      "text": "AWS成長是37%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 148.982,
      "end": 150.283,
      "text": "是18幾來的最快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 150.283,
      "end": 151.784,
      "text": "Google Cloud成長是82%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 151.784,
      "end": 152.986,
      "text": "那其他部分的一些",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 152.986,
      "end": 154.787,
      "text": "雲端基礎設施的單機成長是93%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 154.787,
      "end": 156.322,
      "text": "四家公司的財務長在法說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 156.322,
      "end": 157.223,
      "text": "會上面都講了一句話",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 157.223,
      "end": 159.225,
      "text": "就是現在的需求是遠遠超過",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 159.225,
      "end": 160.527,
      "text": "我們可以供給出來的產能",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 160.527,
      "end": 162.662,
      "text": "然後再加上資料中心空置率",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 162.662,
      "end": 164.464,
      "text": "沒有運轉的地方的部位",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 164.464,
      "end": 165.698,
      "text": "就是連續兩年只有1%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 165.698,
      "end": 167.433,
      "text": "新建的產能有92%是在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 167.433,
      "end": 169.002,
      "text": "蓋好之前就已經先租出去了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 169.002,
      "end": 170.537,
      "text": "等於是它已經找好買家才蓋的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 170.537,
      "end": 172.505,
      "text": "所以現在其實還不是所謂的投入",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 172.505,
      "end": 173.907,
      "text": "傳輸比在惡化的一個狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 173.907,
      "end": 174.807,
      "text": "我要先講我的立場",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 174.807,
      "end": 175.842,
      "text": "我沒有看空 現在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 175.842,
      "end": 177.377,
      "text": "那2026年的上半年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 177.377,
      "end": 179.445,
      "text": "沒有任何的一家雲廠商是下修",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 179.445,
      "end": 180.947,
      "text": "它的資本還是全部都上修了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 180.947,
      "end": 182.715,
      "text": "那為什麼我要講就是它跟",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 182.715,
      "end": 184.517,
      "text": "2022 2000年有像的地方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 184.517,
      "end": 186.186,
      "text": "其實就是一個很類似一個囚徒",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 186.186,
      "end": 186.886,
      "text": "困境的狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 186.886,
      "end": 187.62,
      "text": "因為像的地方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 187.62,
      "end": 189.122,
      "text": "其實不在於現在當下的狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 189.122,
      "end": 190.356,
      "text": "比較像是它的決策機制",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 190.356,
      "end": 190.99,
      "text": "就是如果說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 190.99,
      "end": 192.759,
      "text": "我們現在可以回到2000年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 192.759,
      "end": 193.359,
      "text": "那時候不是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 193.359,
      "end": 195.662,
      "text": "電信商會瘋狂的鋪光線嗎？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 195.662,
      "end": 196.729,
      "text": "那網路的流量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 196.729,
      "end": 198.097,
      "text": "那時候確實也是在爆炸",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 198.097,
      "end": 199.566,
      "text": "所以需求不是假的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 199.566,
      "end": 200.867,
      "text": "但是你事後看就是這些",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 200.867,
      "end": 202.402,
      "text": "長期預設方向其實也是對的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 202.402,
      "end": 203.269,
      "text": "所以問題出在哪",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 203.269,
      "end": 203.636,
      "text": "問題出",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 203.636,
      "end": 205.305,
      "text": "在說它的建設週期要兩到三年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 205.305,
      "end": 206.272,
      "text": "但是所有人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 206.272,
      "end": 208.508,
      "text": "同時對同一個需求去下訂單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 208.508,
      "end": 209.642,
      "text": "那我們今天看到的缺貨",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 209.642,
      "end": 211.844,
      "text": "其實是我三年前的決定造成的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 211.844,
      "end": 212.979,
      "text": "那你今天下的訂單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 212.979,
      "end": 214.28,
      "text": "三年後才會變成產能？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 214.28,
      "end": 215.915,
      "text": "所以比較精準的說法是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 215.915,
      "end": 217.517,
      "text": "囚徒困境不是說你明明知道",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 217.517,
      "end": 218.618,
      "text": "它不划算還加碼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 218.618,
      "end": 221.354,
      "text": "而是明明就是明知大家都在加碼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 221.354,
      "end": 222.188,
      "text": "你也不能停",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 222.188,
      "end": 224.123,
      "text": "它比較像是一個軍備競賽的概念",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 224.123,
      "end": 225.325,
      "text": "就是因為你誰先停了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 225.325,
      "end": 226.96,
      "text": "誰會在產能到位的那一天",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 226.96,
      "end": 227.894,
      "text": "失去他的參賽資格？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 227.894,
      "end": 230.129,
      "text": "所以當初的光線其實沒有蓋錯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 230.129,
      "end": 232.231,
      "text": "它只是同一個時間點蓋太多",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 232.231,
      "end": 234.3,
      "text": "那其實今天的GPU其實也是一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 234.3,
      "end": 236.035,
      "text": "就問題不是說AI沒有人用",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 236.035,
      "end": 237.503,
      "text": "而是這個產能",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 237.503,
      "end": 239.739,
      "text": "有可能會在同一年集中上線",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 239.739,
      "end": 240.974,
      "text": "那一樣的地方還有第二個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 240.974,
      "end": 242.408,
      "text": "就是所謂的左腳踩右腳",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 242.408,
      "end": 244.444,
      "text": "2000年它的引擎是所謂的股市",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 244.444,
      "end": 246.713,
      "text": "就是你的網路公司靠你股市募資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 246.713,
      "end": 248.514,
      "text": "募資來的錢去買通訊設備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 248.514,
      "end": 249.983,
      "text": "設備商財報比較漂亮",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 249.983,
      "end": 250.95,
      "text": "那股價就開始大漲",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 250.95,
      "end": 252.552,
      "text": "那整個產業的估值也就往上拉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 252.552,
      "end": 254.153,
      "text": "那網路公司就可以更容易",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 254.153,
      "end": 256.122,
      "text": "募到下一輪的股權融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 256.122,
      "end": 259.158,
      "text": "那2026年的引擎是在債市上面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 259.158,
      "end": 260.526,
      "text": "就是AI模型巨頭籤",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 260.526,
      "end": 262.128,
      "text": "下長期的算力合約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 262.128,
      "end": 262.996,
      "text": "然後運營廠商",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 262.996,
      "end": 264.797,
      "text": "拿著這份合約去抵押借錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 264.797,
      "end": 267.1,
      "text": "然後把這筆錢借到之後去蓋機房",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 267.1,
      "end": 267.8,
      "text": "那未履約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 267.8,
      "end": 269.202,
      "text": "訂單的數字就會變得比較漂亮",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 269.202,
      "end": 270.303,
      "text": "那估值就會撐得住",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 270.303,
      "end": 271.437,
      "text": "信用評級也守得住",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 271.437,
      "end": 273.139,
      "text": "然後就更容易發下一筆債",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 273.139,
      "end": 274.574,
      "text": "那一樣的閉環",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 274.574,
      "end": 276.542,
      "text": "就是你一樣的 每一步都步驟",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 276.542,
      "end": 278.378,
      "text": "都是在為下一步步驟準備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 278.378,
      "end": 280.28,
      "text": "那差別就是差在這個燃料",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 280.28,
      "end": 281.314,
      "text": "一個是股一個是債",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 281.314,
      "end": 283.016,
      "text": "那當年燒的是散戶的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 283.016,
      "end": 284.584,
      "text": "這次燒的是債券市場的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 284.584,
      "end": 285.985,
      "text": "那再來看就是這個裂縫",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 285.985,
      "end": 286.719,
      "text": "怎麼出現的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 286.719,
      "end": 287.353,
      "text": "就是這個泡泡",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 287.353,
      "end": 288.921,
      "text": "總會有一個裂縫出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 288.921,
      "end": 289.522,
      "text": "先講一件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 289.522,
      "end": 291.29,
      "text": "就是你用開車來做想像",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 291.29,
      "end": 291.991,
      "text": "第一個就是速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 291.991,
      "end": 293.626,
      "text": "速度其實就是你現在跑多快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 293.626,
      "end": 294.16,
      "text": "對應到公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 294.16,
      "end": 296.195,
      "text": "就是說你今年的營收成長有多高？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 296.195,
      "end": 297.764,
      "text": "那另外一個東西叫加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 297.764,
      "end": 298.731,
      "text": "就是你在踩油門",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 298.731,
      "end": 300.199,
      "text": "還是你把油門放掉了？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 300.199,
      "end": 301.901,
      "text": "對應到公司就是說去年成長68",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 301.901,
      "end": 303.002,
      "text": "你今年成長48",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 303.002,
      "end": 304.604,
      "text": "成長其實速度還在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 304.604,
      "end": 305.938,
      "text": "但是你的加速度在減",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 305.938,
      "end": 307.573,
      "text": "對 那股價我要講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 307.573,
      "end": 309.142,
      "text": "它反映的東西不是速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 309.142,
      "end": 309.876,
      "text": "是加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 309.876,
      "end": 311.377,
      "text": "在微積分裡面這好像叫什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 311.377,
      "end": 311.978,
      "text": "二階倒數？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 311.978,
      "end": 312.612,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 314.414,
      "end": 315.682,
      "text": "這個我可以打斷了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 316.582,
      "end": 317.95,
      "text": "還是我要翻譯白話文",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 317.95,
      "end": 319.419,
      "text": "翻譯翻譯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 319.419,
      "end": 321.621,
      "text": "就是以成長來講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 321.621,
      "end": 323.79,
      "text": "你從60到40的加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 323.79,
      "end": 325.324,
      "text": "你股價還是你還是在成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 325.324,
      "end": 325.992,
      "text": "你還是在變好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 325.992,
      "end": 328.061,
      "text": "但你的變好的效率在變差",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 328.061,
      "end": 329.028,
      "text": "那所以你還在好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 329.028,
      "end": 329.896,
      "text": "但你效率變差",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 329.896,
      "end": 330.763,
      "text": "你的速度變慢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 330.763,
      "end": 332.565,
      "text": "那就其實對於股價而言",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 332.565,
      "end": 333.866,
      "text": "對市場而言就是一個不好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 333.866,
      "end": 334.467,
      "text": "好你就想",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 334.467,
      "end": 337.003,
      "text": "假如說你今天這輛車還在往前開",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 337.003,
      "end": 338.171,
      "text": "你速度還是正的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 338.171,
      "end": 340.239,
      "text": "可是你腳從油門上鬆掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 340.239,
      "end": 341.574,
      "text": "你坐在後座的那個人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 341.574,
      "end": 342.742,
      "text": "是不是覺得你減速了？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 342.742,
      "end": 343.476,
      "text": "是不是覺得你停",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 343.476,
      "end": 344.61,
      "text": "甚至覺得你停滯了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 344.61,
      "end": 344.977,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 344.977,
      "end": 347.113,
      "text": "所以市場就是你的那個後座乘客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 347.113,
      "end": 347.847,
      "text": "就突然往前",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 347.847,
      "end": 348.981,
      "text": "他是這樣頓一下嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 348.981,
      "end": 349.215,
      "text": "對不對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 349.215,
      "end": 349.816,
      "text": "就會被罵",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 349.816,
      "end": 352.151,
      "text": "對所以就是資本開支砸下去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 352.151,
      "end": 354.22,
      "text": "最多他只能推動的是速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 354.22,
      "end": 356.055,
      "text": "那你推不動加速度這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 356.055,
      "end": 357.857,
      "text": "所以你今天多蓋一座機房",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 357.857,
      "end": 359.292,
      "text": "你收入當然會多一塊錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 359.292,
      "end": 361.16,
      "text": "但是那是你自己花錢買來的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 361.16,
      "end": 362.862,
      "text": "不是新的人跑來跟你買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 362.862,
      "end": 364.864,
      "text": "加速度要持續再往上一定是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 364.864,
      "end": 366.132,
      "text": "這個內循環系統",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 366.132,
      "end": 368.101,
      "text": "而外面多了一個新的需求進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 368.101,
      "end": 368.601,
      "text": "這個系統",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 368.601,
      "end": 370.136,
      "text": "所以今年上半年的加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 370.136,
      "end": 372.004,
      "text": "其實還是往上的原因是因為靠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 372.004,
      "end": 373.172,
      "text": "AI agent 跟 coding",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 373.172,
      "end": 375.541,
      "text": "這兩塊真實的新的需求進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 375.541,
      "end": 376.142,
      "text": "所以反過來說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 376.142,
      "end": 377.71,
      "text": "只要這個加速度開始下滑",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 377.71,
      "end": 378.578,
      "text": "代表新增的收入",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 378.578,
      "end": 380.279,
      "text": "已經對應不上新增的資本開支",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 380.279,
      "end": 381.914,
      "text": "那那個時候要繼續蓋",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 381.914,
      "end": 382.715,
      "text": "就只剩一條路",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 382.715,
      "end": 383.516,
      "text": "就是再融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 383.516,
      "end": 385.017,
      "text": "我這邊可以舉幾個例子",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 385.017,
      "end": 386.419,
      "text": "第一個是2000年那時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 386.419,
      "end": 387.754,
      "text": "還記得思科這間公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 387.754,
      "end": 388.654,
      "text": "就是很慘的那間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 388.654,
      "end": 389.856,
      "text": "也是光纖網路的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 389.856,
      "end": 392.425,
      "text": "所以那時候企業採購的 CEO",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 392.425,
      "end": 393.292,
      "text": "有出來說一句話",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 393.292,
      "end": 395.027,
      "text": "就是說我們正在迴歸正常",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 395.027,
      "end": 396.195,
      "text": "那時候思科的訂單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 396.195,
      "end": 397.497,
      "text": "還成長了40%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 397.497,
      "end": 398.631,
      "text": "就是隻是沒有以前那麼快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 398.631,
      "end": 399.499,
      "text": "但還是有成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 399.499,
      "end": 401.567,
      "text": "那2006年房價還在漲",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 401.567,
      "end": 404.237,
      "text": "但是次貸違約率有繼續往上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 404.237,
      "end": 404.537,
      "text": "怎麼講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 404.537,
      "end": 405.905,
      "text": "不是因為那時候房價跌",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 405.905,
      "end": 407.573,
      "text": "是因為它漲得不夠快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 407.573,
      "end": 409.375,
      "text": "所以那些希望說三年後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 409.375,
      "end": 410.343,
      "text": "房子就可以漲價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 410.343,
      "end": 411.677,
      "text": "漲完價之後可以再融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 411.677,
      "end": 413.146,
      "text": "換更低的利率的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 413.146,
      "end": 414.981,
      "text": "就突然發現說他換不了了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 414.981,
      "end": 416.048,
      "text": "所以就開始違約了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 416.048,
      "end": 417.517,
      "text": "其實2026年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 417.517,
      "end": 419.252,
      "text": "就是今年Meta其實也說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 419.252,
      "end": 420.953,
      "text": "他要出售多餘的GPU",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 420.953,
      "end": 422.622,
      "text": "這一則就是新聞",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 422.622,
      "end": 424.056,
      "text": "那時候我們也有討論到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 424.056,
      "end": 425.725,
      "text": "那時候Meta其實我有分析過",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 425.725,
      "end": 427.693,
      "text": "我覺得它比較像是產能錯配",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 427.693,
      "end": 429.228,
      "text": "所以我暫時先不把它當成",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 429.228,
      "end": 430.396,
      "text": "是一個很紅燈的訊號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 430.396,
      "end": 431.297,
      "text": "但是我要先講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 431.297,
      "end": 433.099,
      "text": "就是崩盤前的第一個訊號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 433.099,
      "end": 434.2,
      "text": "不是一個壞消息",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 434.2,
      "end": 435.868,
      "text": "反而是一個沒那麼好的消息",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 435.868,
      "end": 437.403,
      "text": "就是它的加速度開始減緩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 437.403,
      "end": 438.805,
      "text": "那假如說我今天抓不準",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 438.805,
      "end": 440.139,
      "text": "抓不準它回頭的時間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 440.139,
      "end": 442.108,
      "text": "我也抓不準它就是回測的空間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 442.108,
      "end": 442.842,
      "text": "那我要怎麼辦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 442.842,
      "end": 443.476,
      "text": "就是加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 443.476,
      "end": 444.644,
      "text": "這個東西很討厭的地方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 444.644,
      "end": 445.945,
      "text": "就在於說它會演",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 445.945,
      "end": 446.779,
      "text": "就是演一下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 446.779,
      "end": 447.747,
      "text": "就是假摔",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 447.747,
      "end": 448.781,
      "text": "你以為減速了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 448.781,
      "end": 449.015,
      "text": "沒有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 449.015,
      "end": 449.882,
      "text": "我只是在迴游",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 449.882,
      "end": 450.516,
      "text": "我在踩一次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 450.516,
      "end": 450.716,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 450.716,
      "end": 451.717,
      "text": "迴游這個詞很好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 451.717,
      "end": 451.918,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 451.918,
      "end": 453.753,
      "text": "所以就是2000年1月那時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 453.753,
      "end": 455.421,
      "text": "NAS是連續兩週是下跌",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 455.421,
      "end": 456.956,
      "text": "那跌幅將近10%到15%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 456.956,
      "end": 457.824,
      "text": "很多人就覺得說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 457.824,
      "end": 459.058,
      "text": "這個泡沫開始破了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 459.058,
      "end": 460.893,
      "text": "可是它接下來兩個月又漲了30%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 460.893,
      "end": 462.662,
      "text": "3月10號才真的見頂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 462.662,
      "end": 465.131,
      "text": "那你左側頭頂的代價是踏空",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 465.131,
      "end": 466.799,
      "text": "你右側頭頂的代價是回測",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 466.799,
      "end": 467.133,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 467.133,
      "end": 467.9,
      "text": "左側頭頂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 467.9,
      "end": 469.235,
      "text": "你看那個人現在如果往上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 469.235,
      "end": 470.236,
      "text": "那你把它賣掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 470.236,
      "end": 471.237,
      "text": "那股價還繼續往上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 471.237,
      "end": 471.971,
      "text": "你就是吃不到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 471.971,
      "end": 473.139,
      "text": "繼續往上那一段漲幅",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 473.139,
      "end": 473.639,
      "text": "那如果說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 473.639,
      "end": 474.974,
      "text": "賣太早",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 474.974,
      "end": 475.141,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 475.141,
      "end": 475.975,
      "text": "那右邊回測",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 475.975,
      "end": 477.176,
      "text": "右側頭頂的狀態下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 477.176,
      "end": 477.443,
      "text": "就是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 477.443,
      "end": 477.71,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 477.71,
      "end": 480.213,
      "text": "你在右邊確定已經回跌的狀態下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 480.213,
      "end": 481.147,
      "text": "你就已經先賣掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 481.147,
      "end": 482.181,
      "text": "然後它就反彈了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 482.181,
      "end": 482.715,
      "text": "就繼續漲",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 482.715,
      "end": 484.317,
      "text": "那你也是吃不到上面那一段漲幅",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 484.317,
      "end": 485.585,
      "text": "那我要講這個原因是因為",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 485.585,
      "end": 487.553,
      "text": "就是不論你是左側還是右側",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 487.553,
      "end": 489.222,
      "text": "你一定要付出一種代價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 489.222,
      "end": 490.99,
      "text": "因為你不可能出在高點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 490.99,
      "end": 491.891,
      "text": "那個是老天保佑",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 491.891,
      "end": 493.192,
      "text": "所以如果你抓不準",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 493.192,
      "end": 494.16,
      "text": "就不要去抓",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 494.16,
      "end": 494.494,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 494.494,
      "end": 496.062,
      "text": "所以我覺得就是先分清楚",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 496.062,
      "end": 497.163,
      "text": "你今天看的東西是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 497.163,
      "end": 498.998,
      "text": "第一個就是假如說你看的是產業",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 498.998,
      "end": 499.799,
      "text": "還是看的是金融",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 499.799,
      "end": 500.9,
      "text": "看產業這件事情就是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 500.9,
      "end": 501.534,
      "text": "你看這個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 501.534,
      "end": 502.401,
      "text": "這一個生意",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 502.401,
      "end": 503.703,
      "text": "它本身發生是什麼事情？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 503.703,
      "end": 504.637,
      "text": "你貨賣不賣得掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 504.637,
      "end": 505.438,
      "text": "你產能夠不夠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 505.438,
      "end": 506.772,
      "text": "你的價格是漲還是在跌",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 506.772,
      "end": 507.874,
      "text": "你的老闆是在說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 507.874,
      "end": 509.408,
      "text": "我今天GP來不及做",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 509.408,
      "end": 510.276,
      "text": "就是我做不出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 510.276,
      "end": 511.41,
      "text": "我供給沒辦法跟上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 511.41,
      "end": 512.612,
      "text": "還是說我今天就是一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 512.612,
      "end": 513.88,
      "text": "貨量回歸正常",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 513.88,
      "end": 514.013,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 514.013,
      "end": 514.881,
      "text": "這是看產業",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 514.881,
      "end": 516.115,
      "text": "那看金融比較像是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 516.115,
      "end": 518.217,
      "text": "你看借錢給這個做生意的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 518.217,
      "end": 518.818,
      "text": "他在想什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 518.818,
      "end": 519.952,
      "text": "就是他還借得到錢嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 519.952,
      "end": 521.52,
      "text": "他利率跟半年錢是變貴",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 521.52,
      "end": 522.088,
      "text": "還是變便宜？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 522.088,
      "end": 523.089,
      "text": "那發債有沒有人買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 523.089,
      "end": 523.956,
      "text": "所以一個是看你的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 523.956,
      "end": 524.657,
      "text": "生意做得好不好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 524.657,
      "end": 526.025,
      "text": "一個是看你錢還借不借得到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 526.025,
      "end": 529.328,
      "text": "那這兩個訊號的容錯率會差很多",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 529.328,
      "end": 530.062,
      "text": "因為產業",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 530.062,
      "end": 532.532,
      "text": "訊號有機會會做自我修復",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 532.532,
      "end": 534.8,
      "text": "但金融訊號它會做自我實現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 534.8,
      "end": 535.301,
      "text": "好聽不懂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 535.301,
      "end": 536.135,
      "text": "一連問號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 536.135,
      "end": 536.435,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 536.903,
      "end": 538.938,
      "text": "就是比如說你這一季度的訂單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 538.938,
      "end": 540.172,
      "text": "它表現不好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 540.172,
      "end": 541.274,
      "text": "那它可能客戶",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 541.274,
      "end": 543.042,
      "text": "他只是把訂單遞延到下一季",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 543.042,
      "end": 544.343,
      "text": "他可能積壓到下一季而已",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 544.343,
      "end": 545.311,
      "text": "那你價格跌了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 545.311,
      "end": 546.212,
      "text": "你供給就會減少",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 546.212,
      "end": 547.48,
      "text": "那你價格可能又會回來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 547.48,
      "end": 548.881,
      "text": "它有天然的供需的價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 548.881,
      "end": 549.682,
      "text": "格的回彈機制",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 549.682,
      "end": 551.117,
      "text": "那你金融訊號剛好相反",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 551.117,
      "end": 552.518,
      "text": "就是說市場覺得你有風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 552.518,
      "end": 553.586,
      "text": "你的借貸成本就會上升",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 553.586,
      "end": 555.054,
      "text": "你的現金流就真的變差",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 555.054,
      "end": 556.656,
      "text": "你的市場就覺得你真的有風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 556.656,
      "end": 558.024,
      "text": "所以它不會自己好回來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 558.024,
      "end": 559.358,
      "text": "就是這個東西只要一起動",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 559.358,
      "end": 561.093,
      "text": "它就會自己坐實這個市場的猜測",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 561.093,
      "end": 561.294,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 561.294,
      "end": 562.028,
      "text": "所以就是我說的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 562.028,
      "end": 563.362,
      "text": "就是金融訊號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 563.362,
      "end": 565.798,
      "text": "會變成是一個自我實現的狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 565.798,
      "end": 567.767,
      "text": "那像2007年那時候6月底",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 567.767,
      "end": 568.301,
      "text": "投資銀行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 568.301,
      "end": 570.236,
      "text": "它包銷的槓桿就是突然賣不掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 570.236,
      "end": 571.704,
      "text": "光是美國就有2500億美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 571.704,
      "end": 572.538,
      "text": "卡在銀行手上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 572.538,
      "end": 572.905,
      "text": "然後就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 572.905,
      "end": 575.174,
      "text": "被迫認列進它自己的資產負債表",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 575.174,
      "end": 576.642,
      "text": "所以可以怎麼做咧",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 576.642,
      "end": 578.444,
      "text": "就是有四個方式",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 578.444,
      "end": 580.846,
      "text": "第一個就是用條件決策",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 580.846,
      "end": 581.981,
      "text": "不要用時間點決策",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 581.981,
      "end": 582.882,
      "text": "就是你不要問說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 582.882,
      "end": 583.783,
      "text": "就是我什麼時候要賣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 583.783,
      "end": 585.217,
      "text": "而是問說我看到什麼時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 585.217,
      "end": 585.851,
      "text": "我減多少？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 585.851,
      "end": 586.819,
      "text": "這個是先寫下來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 586.819,
      "end": 587.253,
      "text": "就比如說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 587.253,
      "end": 588.821,
      "text": "你可能看到某一條左側訊號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 588.821,
      "end": 589.455,
      "text": "減三分之一",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 589.455,
      "end": 591.524,
      "text": "看到兩條左側訊號同時出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 591.524,
      "end": 592.325,
      "text": "可能減到剩一半",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 592.325,
      "end": 595.361,
      "text": "那右側訊號可能就出現了兩次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 595.361,
      "end": 596.128,
      "text": "你就把它清倉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 596.128,
      "end": 597.797,
      "text": "就是你自己可以設定一個條件",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 597.797,
      "end": 598.564,
      "text": "它的好處在哪裡",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 598.564,
      "end": 599.966,
      "text": "就是你不需要去預測它",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 599.966,
      "end": 601.5,
      "text": "你只要需要辨識它",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 601.5,
      "end": 602.301,
      "text": "有沒有出現就好了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 602.301,
      "end": 604.036,
      "text": "就是辨識比預測還要再簡單嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 604.036,
      "end": 604.136,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 604.136,
      "end": 606.005,
      "text": "所以預測是我覺得會發生什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 606.005,
      "end": 607.54,
      "text": "辨識是我看到了什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 607.54,
      "end": 608.374,
      "text": "它對或不對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 608.374,
      "end": 610.176,
      "text": "所以你前者你不會有信心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 610.176,
      "end": 611.043,
      "text": "你後者就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 611.043,
      "end": 612.178,
      "text": "基本上你只要肯做功課",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 612.178,
      "end": 612.979,
      "text": "你一定做到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 612.979,
      "end": 613.145,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 613.145,
      "end": 614.513,
      "text": "那第二個方式就是分批",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 614.513,
      "end": 616.816,
      "text": "就是左右側用不同的節奏",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 616.816,
      "end": 618.784,
      "text": "因為左側通常比較多預判性質",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 618.784,
      "end": 619.118,
      "text": "所以你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 619.118,
      "end": 620.82,
      "text": "左側可以允許自己多戳一點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 620.82,
      "end": 623.456,
      "text": "右側出現你就需要謹慎處理",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 623.456,
      "end": 624.256,
      "text": "這差別在這邊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 624.256,
      "end": 625.691,
      "text": "那這邊篇幅不夠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 625.691,
      "end": 627.693,
      "text": "我在Medium裡面會講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 627.693,
      "end": 628.761,
      "text": "左側要看什麼訊號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 628.761,
      "end": 629.795,
      "text": "右側要看什麼訊號",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 629.795,
      "end": 630.896,
      "text": "這東西太多了真的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 630.896,
      "end": 631.097,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 631.097,
      "end": 631.998,
      "text": "然後第三個就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 631.998,
      "end": 634.166,
      "text": "就是按照誰靠再融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 634.166,
      "end": 635.334,
      "text": "活著去做分類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 635.334,
      "end": 636.936,
      "text": "不是說誰漲最多來分類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 636.936,
      "end": 637.97,
      "text": "因為它決定的不是說你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 637.97,
      "end": 638.638,
      "text": "今天公司跌多少",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 638.638,
      "end": 640.339,
      "text": "是你跌下去之後還漲不漲得回來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 640.339,
      "end": 641.941,
      "text": "因為你好的公司跌五成會漲回來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 641.941,
      "end": 643.342,
      "text": "你壞的公司跌五成它會GG",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 643.342,
      "end": 645.678,
      "text": "那第四個就是心態上要先接受",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 645.678,
      "end": 646.545,
      "text": "就我剛剛有說了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 646.545,
      "end": 648.748,
      "text": "你真的不太可能賣在最高點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 648.748,
      "end": 650.483,
      "text": "所以你賣早這件事情的成本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 650.483,
      "end": 651.717,
      "text": "你就要接受它是一個成本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 651.717,
      "end": 652.818,
      "text": "不是你自己的判斷失誤",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 652.818,
      "end": 654.52,
      "text": "因為2000年真正跑掉的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 654.52,
      "end": 655.421,
      "text": "不是預測對的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 655.421,
      "end": 656.922,
      "text": "他是接受自己會踏空",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 656.922,
      "end": 658.157,
      "text": "或者是接受自己會賣飛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 658.157,
      "end": 659.892,
      "text": "但是還是按照規則賣的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 659.892,
      "end": 661.527,
      "text": "再來就是我要講的事情是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 661.527,
      "end": 664.163,
      "text": "這種系統性風險它的殺傷力",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 664.163,
      "end": 665.765,
      "text": "其實會有很多波",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 665.765,
      "end": 667.166,
      "text": "它不是隻有第一波而已",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 667.166,
      "end": 667.933,
      "text": "因為像是WorldCom",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 667.933,
      "end": 669.268,
      "text": "它那時候的這間公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 669.268,
      "end": 670.236,
      "text": "它的會計違規從",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 670.236,
      "end": 671.604,
      "text": "1999年就開始出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 671.604,
      "end": 673.439,
      "text": "但是它是到2002年才被揭發的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 673.439,
      "end": 674.44,
      "text": "那為什麼拖了三年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 674.44,
      "end": 675.675,
      "text": "是因為你景氣好的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 675.675,
      "end": 676.776,
      "text": "你這件事情會被藏起來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 676.776,
      "end": 678.577,
      "text": "就是2000年之後電信化惡業",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 678.577,
      "end": 679.845,
      "text": "就是電信業惡化",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 679.845,
      "end": 680.713,
      "text": "然後我在講什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 680.713,
      "end": 681.781,
      "text": "惡業 對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 681.781,
      "end": 683.749,
      "text": "電信業惡化 對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 683.749,
      "end": 684.617,
      "text": "然後資本開始下降",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 684.617,
      "end": 686.652,
      "text": "然後你的獲利的壓力也開始加大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 686.652,
      "end": 688.554,
      "text": "所以那些就是違規的部分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 688.554,
      "end": 689.355,
      "text": "就越滾越大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 689.355,
      "end": 690.289,
      "text": "然後就被爆出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 690.289,
      "end": 691.724,
      "text": "所以你拖長這整個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 691.724,
      "end": 692.858,
      "text": "熊市的東西不是？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 692.858,
      "end": 694.894,
      "text": "通常不是我們說的那個吹哨者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 694.894,
      "end": 695.895,
      "text": "就是不是那一根",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 695.895,
      "end": 697.096,
      "text": "最一開始那一根針",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 697.096,
      "end": 697.363,
      "text": "其實",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 697.363,
      "end": 699.198,
      "text": "真正會爆的是後面的連鎖反應",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 699.198,
      "end": 700.7,
      "text": "錢可以爭一隻眼逼一隻眼的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 700.7,
      "end": 701.3,
      "text": "真的不好的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 701.3,
      "end": 702.501,
      "text": "大家就會放大鏡來看",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 702.501,
      "end": 704.103,
      "text": "對 該爆就一個一個把它戳爆",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 704.103,
      "end": 705.137,
      "text": "對 因為通常會是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 705.137,
      "end": 706.739,
      "text": "就是你的估值會先跌",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 706.739,
      "end": 709.075,
      "text": "然後你的資本開支會大幅收縮",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 709.075,
      "end": 709.341,
      "text": "然後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 709.341,
      "end": 711.811,
      "text": "你的創業的融資可能就會被凍結",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 711.811,
      "end": 713.279,
      "text": "那你的相關企業就會出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 713.279,
      "end": 714.08,
      "text": "現金流惡化",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 714.08,
      "end": 715.815,
      "text": "然後你的更多問題就被翻出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 715.815,
      "end": 716.682,
      "text": "然後就會再跌一輪",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 716.682,
      "end": 717.349,
      "text": "這可能是第一波",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 717.349,
      "end": 717.716,
      "text": "這才是第一波",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 717.716,
      "end": 719.118,
      "text": "這次是第二波 講錯了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 719.118,
      "end": 719.485,
      "text": "對 所以",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 719.485,
      "end": 721.587,
      "text": "如果說這件事情真的發生了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 721.587,
      "end": 723.823,
      "text": "其實第一輪跌完不代表就結束了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 723.823,
      "end": 726.158,
      "text": "就是因為很多歷史上長期的熊市",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 726.158,
      "end": 726.959,
      "text": "都是因為它後面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 726.959,
      "end": 728.494,
      "text": "還有第二次跟第三次的危機出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 728.494,
      "end": 729.361,
      "text": "對摺還要再對摺",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 729.361,
      "end": 730.296,
      "text": "股價的部分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 730.696,
      "end": 731.23,
      "text": "好 那我們剛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 731.23,
      "end": 733.099,
      "text": "前面講就是相似的地方嘛？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 733.099,
      "end": 735.201,
      "text": "然後後面有不是那麼相似的地方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 735.201,
      "end": 736.402,
      "text": "第一個就是我剛前面有講的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 736.402,
      "end": 737.236,
      "text": "就是2000年那",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 737.236,
      "end": 738.404,
      "text": "時候是股權融資的問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 738.404,
      "end": 740.906,
      "text": "那2020 26年是債券融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 740.906,
      "end": 741.941,
      "text": "債權融資的問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 741.941,
      "end": 742.475,
      "text": "那股權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 742.475,
      "end": 744.677,
      "text": "這個東西是一個可以慢慢等的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 744.677,
      "end": 746.879,
      "text": "那債務是一個你今天時間一到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 746.879,
      "end": 747.813,
      "text": "你就是要繳的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 747.813,
      "end": 748.881,
      "text": "對 就像你買房嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 748.881,
      "end": 750.483,
      "text": "假如說你是全款買房的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 750.483,
      "end": 752.284,
      "text": "全額付清的 跟你是貸款買房的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 752.284,
      "end": 753.419,
      "text": "那你全款買房的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 753.419,
      "end": 755.02,
      "text": "你今天房價跌了30%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 755.02,
      "end": 756.122,
      "text": "你會覺得很痛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 756.122,
      "end": 757.923,
      "text": "但是不會有人來敲門跟你要錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 757.923,
      "end": 759.325,
      "text": "就是你有等待的權利",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 759.325,
      "end": 760.993,
      "text": "那如果說你今天是貸款買房的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 760.993,
      "end": 761.861,
      "text": "房價跌30%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 761.861,
      "end": 763.462,
      "text": "銀行會來跟你說你要補繳",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 763.462,
      "end": 765.097,
      "text": "你補不出來房子可能就不是你的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 765.097,
      "end": 767.333,
      "text": "所以不管你多看好未來十年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 767.333,
      "end": 768.033,
      "text": "你有的是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 768.033,
      "end": 769.702,
      "text": "你要交錢的這件事情的義務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 769.702,
      "end": 770.87,
      "text": "那借錢給公司的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 770.87,
      "end": 771.804,
      "text": "公司通常賺翻了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 771.804,
      "end": 773.305,
      "text": "他也只拿固定的股息",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 773.305,
      "end": 775.141,
      "text": "所以公司出事了有可能會全賠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 775.141,
      "end": 776.942,
      "text": "所以債主這個生物",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 776.942,
      "end": 779.378,
      "text": "是全世界最悲觀的一群人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 779.378,
      "end": 780.88,
      "text": "對 不要去挑戰他有多悲觀",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 780.88,
      "end": 782.848,
      "text": "就是他不會等到你真的出事了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 782.848,
      "end": 783.549,
      "text": "之後他才跑掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 783.549,
      "end": 785.351,
      "text": "他說你看起來還沒那麼順暢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 785.351,
      "end": 787.286,
      "text": "哪裡卡卡的時候他就開始出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 787.286,
      "end": 788.42,
      "text": "他覺得我該跑了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 788.42,
      "end": 788.954,
      "text": "那股票",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 788.954,
      "end": 790.623,
      "text": "這件事情會讓你覺得痛很久",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 790.623,
      "end": 793.125,
      "text": "那債券會讓你痛得很短",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 793.125,
      "end": 794.76,
      "text": "但是你甚至有可能來不及反應",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 794.76,
      "end": 795.828,
      "text": "所以如果說這次真的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 795.828,
      "end": 796.896,
      "text": "有泡沫要消泡",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 796.896,
      "end": 797.797,
      "text": "會來得很快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 797.797,
      "end": 800.332,
      "text": "因為這個順序是相反的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 800.332,
      "end": 802.034,
      "text": "就是2000年那時候是先殺估值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 802.034,
      "end": 803.936,
      "text": "那他從3月見頂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 803.936,
      "end": 805.671,
      "text": "然後到4月是跌破年限",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 805.671,
      "end": 808.24,
      "text": "可是他的真正的起跌點是9月",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 808.24,
      "end": 809.241,
      "text": "所以雖然很慘",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 809.241,
      "end": 810.276,
      "text": "但是你也有時間反應",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 810.276,
      "end": 811.911,
      "text": "這次的壓力點其實在債市",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 811.911,
      "end": 812.378,
      "text": "因為債務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 812.378,
      "end": 813.646,
      "text": "這個東西沒有所謂的中間值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 813.646,
      "end": 816.015,
      "text": "你就只有融資成功或者是不成功",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 816.015,
      "end": 817.082,
      "text": "如果融資成功",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 817.082,
      "end": 818.217,
      "text": "就看起來什麼事情都沒有發生",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 818.217,
      "end": 819.718,
      "text": "那如果說你今天債融資失敗",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 819.718,
      "end": 821.654,
      "text": "你就是要面對你的資產查封",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 821.654,
      "end": 824.256,
      "text": "什麼債券價格歸零這種事情發生",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 824.256,
      "end": 826.125,
      "text": "所以這一次如果真的要盯的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 826.125,
      "end": 826.659,
      "text": "反而是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 826.659,
      "end": 828.36,
      "text": "你要盯那些高收益債的殖利率",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 828.36,
      "end": 829.929,
      "text": "那你如果今天去盯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 829.929,
      "end": 831.764,
      "text": "大盤的股價會比較晚？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 831.764,
      "end": 832.665,
      "text": "然後再來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 832.665,
      "end": 833.799,
      "text": "另外一個不一樣的地方就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 833.799,
      "end": 835.367,
      "text": "這一次的狀態比較像是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 837.937,
      "end": 838.337,
      "text": "唉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 840.105,
      "end": 842.107,
      "text": "那你腦袋中過了多少東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 842.107,
      "end": 843.175,
      "text": "這是什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 843.642,
      "end": 846.011,
      "text": "你都把影片看完然後嘆氣我",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 846.011,
      "end": 847.213,
      "text": "劇情是什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 847.213,
      "end": 848.38,
      "text": "他剛剛已經想過",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 848.38,
      "end": 849.381,
      "text": "3000多萬怎麼可能？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 849.381,
      "end": 851.35,
      "text": "你說奇異果是不是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 853.485,
      "end": 854.153,
      "text": "好啦回來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 854.153,
      "end": 854.82,
      "text": "這一次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 854.82,
      "end": 857.656,
      "text": "是科技的風險加上房地產的槓桿",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 857.656,
      "end": 857.756,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 857.756,
      "end": 859.959,
      "text": "我們說科技工風險通常是假如說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 859.959,
      "end": 861.36,
      "text": "你在發展一個科技",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 861.36,
      "end": 861.961,
      "text": "你做出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 861.961,
      "end": 863.262,
      "text": "有可能會沒有人要的狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 863.262,
      "end": 864.096,
      "text": "你投100塊有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 864.096,
      "end": 865.598,
      "text": "可能全部都是歸零打水漂的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 865.598,
      "end": 866.532,
      "text": "但是你成功了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 866.532,
      "end": 868.334,
      "text": "你可能就是一個爆發性的成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 868.334,
      "end": 869.335,
      "text": "然後而且是一個別人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 869.335,
      "end": 871.503,
      "text": "可能很難有跨越的一個科技壁壘",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 871.503,
      "end": 872.805,
      "text": "那這種大部分會是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 872.805,
      "end": 873.639,
      "text": "就是如果成功的話",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 873.639,
      "end": 874.773,
      "text": "可能會超級賺的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 874.773,
      "end": 875.574,
      "text": "比較適合股權？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 875.574,
      "end": 876.108,
      "text": "就是因為你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 876.108,
      "end": 877.877,
      "text": "股東通常就會做好一種心理準備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 877.877,
      "end": 879.378,
      "text": "就是反正我投進去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 879.378,
      "end": 880.713,
      "text": "有可能會賠光的心理準備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 880.713,
      "end": 882.581,
      "text": "但是他要的東西是你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 882.581,
      "end": 884.583,
      "text": "如果成功了我要你那個爆發",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 884.583,
      "end": 886.685,
      "text": "那房地產的風險比較像是說你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 886.685,
      "end": 887.953,
      "text": "今天還不出錢的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 887.953,
      "end": 889.321,
      "text": "因為你土地不會消失",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 889.321,
      "end": 891.056,
      "text": "你這個蓋好的這棟大樓",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 891.056,
      "end": 892.358,
      "text": "他也不會就這樣憑空消失",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 892.358,
      "end": 893.459,
      "text": "那你租金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 893.459,
      "end": 895.394,
      "text": "其實你也可以先預測他是多少",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 895.394,
      "end": 897.93,
      "text": "甚至你做寫一個很長期的租約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 897.93,
      "end": 899.598,
      "text": "你去鎖定那個租金的價格",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 899.598,
      "end": 901.133,
      "text": "那這種東西就會比較適合債權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 901.133,
      "end": 901.834,
      "text": "因為銀行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 901.834,
      "end": 904.336,
      "text": "他不需要跟你分你賺的暴利",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 904.336,
      "end": 906.605,
      "text": "他要你的是穩定按時交錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 906.605,
      "end": 907.473,
      "text": "所以我想要問",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 907.473,
      "end": 908.674,
      "text": "就是其實我剛前面爆了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 908.674,
      "end": 909.475,
      "text": "就是大家覺得",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 909.475,
      "end": 911.41,
      "text": "AI數據中心應該是哪一種？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 911.41,
      "end": 912.544,
      "text": "要用股權還是用債權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 912.544,
      "end": 913.812,
      "text": "只是覺得來講它是債權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 913.812,
      "end": 914.98,
      "text": "但它又會折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 914.98,
      "end": 915.247,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 915.247,
      "end": 916.515,
      "text": "重點是在折舊一下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 916.515,
      "end": 919.184,
      "text": "因為房地產你50年折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 919.184,
      "end": 920.653,
      "text": "你算快一點可以算到50年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 920.653,
      "end": 921.72,
      "text": "你算爛一點可以到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 921.72,
      "end": 923.155,
      "text": "算好一點可以到25年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 923.155,
      "end": 924.29,
      "text": "而且如果以土地來講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 924.29,
      "end": 924.923,
      "text": "不一定會有折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 924.923,
      "end": 926.458,
      "text": "土地可能甚至99年都可能",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 926.458,
      "end": 927.626,
      "text": "土地不會有折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 927.626,
      "end": 928.994,
      "text": "但數據中心真的很危險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 928.994,
      "end": 929.295,
      "text": "對啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 929.295,
      "end": 931.864,
      "text": "所以我才說就是這一次的狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 931.864,
      "end": 932.298,
      "text": "比較像是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 932.298,
      "end": 934.633,
      "text": "你用房貸的那個還款去買一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 934.633,
      "end": 936.502,
      "text": "你可能一兩年就迭代掉的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 936.502,
      "end": 938.003,
      "text": "他就算還沒折舊完",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 938.003,
      "end": 939.738,
      "text": "搞不好隔年就有更強的晶片出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 939.738,
      "end": 939.938,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 939.938,
      "end": 941.64,
      "text": "所以我才會說一兩年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 941.64,
      "end": 942.441,
      "text": "我不會說就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 942.441,
      "end": 943.842,
      "text": "現在科技股顧了三四年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 943.842,
      "end": 944.944,
      "text": "因為他新的技術",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 944.944,
      "end": 946.645,
      "text": "這個東西就是推陳出新嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 946.645,
      "end": 947.313,
      "text": "你也很難說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 947.313,
      "end": 948.347,
      "text": "他可能就是三年一更新",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 948.347,
      "end": 949.882,
      "text": "或兩年一更新或一年一更新這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 949.882,
      "end": 950.049,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 950.049,
      "end": 951.417,
      "text": "很像買iPhone分三四年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 951.417,
      "end": 951.984,
      "text": "就是這種感覺",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 951.984,
      "end": 953.018,
      "text": "對沒錯就是這個感覺",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 953.018,
      "end": 955.321,
      "text": "所以現在的狀況就是現在的角色",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 955.321,
      "end": 956.488,
      "text": "一個是包租公",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 956.488,
      "end": 957.156,
      "text": "一個是二房東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 957.156,
      "end": 957.856,
      "text": "一個是大房客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 957.856,
      "end": 958.991,
      "text": "我現在講就是包租",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 958.991,
      "end": 960.659,
      "text": "公就是蓋這個樓的人嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 960.659,
      "end": 961.727,
      "text": "其實跟臺灣的建商一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 961.727,
      "end": 963.662,
      "text": "就是他要先跟銀行界那個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 963.662,
      "end": 964.496,
      "text": "土建龍",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 964.496,
      "end": 965.297,
      "text": "土建龍大家知道嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 965.297,
      "end": 966.665,
      "text": "土地建築融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 966.665,
      "end": 967.599,
      "text": "就是他",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 967.599,
      "end": 969.435,
      "text": "可以先跟銀行借一筆去買地",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 969.435,
      "end": 970.002,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 970.002,
      "end": 971.87,
      "text": "就是他會先跟銀行去借這筆錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 971.87,
      "end": 973.706,
      "text": "然後把先把這個房子蓋起來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 973.706,
      "end": 974.907,
      "text": "然後等租客搬進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 974.907,
      "end": 976.508,
      "text": "租金穩定進帳了之後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 976.508,
      "end": 978.744,
      "text": "再去換一筆就是長期低利的貸款",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 978.744,
      "end": 979.578,
      "text": "把土建龍還掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 979.578,
      "end": 980.98,
      "text": "那這個方式比較像是接力",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 980.98,
      "end": 982.514,
      "text": "因為他不是一個疊加上去的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 982.514,
      "end": 984.883,
      "text": "但是這次的規模很不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 984.883,
      "end": 986.051,
      "text": "這次的規模很大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 986.051,
      "end": 988.153,
      "text": "就是德州有個園區",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 988.153,
      "end": 988.754,
      "text": "他的建設",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 988.754,
      "end": 990.456,
      "text": "融資就已經到了220億美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 990.456,
      "end": 990.856,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 990.856,
      "end": 992.324,
      "text": "這跟我們蓋樓的那個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 992.324,
      "end": 993.325,
      "text": "skill是不一樣的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 993.325,
      "end": 994.76,
      "text": "那後面那一筆長期貸款",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 994.76,
      "end": 996.395,
      "text": "在這邊叫做資產證券化",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 996.395,
      "end": 998.097,
      "text": "就是你把未來收得到的租金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 998.097,
      "end": 999.598,
      "text": "打包成債券把它賣掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 999.598,
      "end": 1001.2,
      "text": "那2025年全球發行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1001.2,
      "end": 1002.468,
      "text": "量超過250億美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1002.468,
      "end": 1004.436,
      "text": "比前三年加起來還要來得多",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1004.436,
      "end": 1006.438,
      "text": "這是所謂的包租公的角色",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1006.438,
      "end": 1007.94,
      "text": "那第二個東西叫二房東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1007.94,
      "end": 1009.274,
      "text": "二房東是買GPU的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1009.274,
      "end": 1011.21,
      "text": "他跟包租公租了這棟樓",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1011.21,
      "end": 1013.679,
      "text": "然後把買了一大批的GPU放進去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1013.679,
      "end": 1015.314,
      "text": "然後再切成一小份一小份",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1015.314,
      "end": 1016.615,
      "text": "租給租客去使用",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1016.615,
      "end": 1017.716,
      "text": "那GPU太貴怎麼辦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1017.716,
      "end": 1018.417,
      "text": "他買不起怎麼辦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1018.417,
      "end": 1019.985,
      "text": "他就成立了一家新公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1019.985,
      "end": 1023.155,
      "text": "然後 把那一批GPU跟客戶籤",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1023.155,
      "end": 1024.857,
      "text": "約的租約綁在一起",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1024.857,
      "end": 1027.359,
      "text": "拿去跟私募基金抵押借錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1027.359,
      "end": 1029.194,
      "text": "這是黃仁勳正在推動的事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1029.194,
      "end": 1030.863,
      "text": "對這就是黃仁勳正在做的事",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1030.863,
      "end": 1032.03,
      "text": "那重點是我要先講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1032.03,
      "end": 1033.565,
      "text": "這邊有個關鍵的設計",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1033.565,
      "end": 1034.733,
      "text": "叫做無追索權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1034.733,
      "end": 1035.834,
      "text": "追索權是什麼東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1035.834,
      "end": 1036.435,
      "text": "白話講就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1036.435,
      "end": 1038.203,
      "text": "這一間新的公司如果倒了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1038.203,
      "end": 1040.539,
      "text": "你債主只能把你的GPU搬走",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1040.539,
      "end": 1042.374,
      "text": "你不可以來抄這個二房東的家",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1042.374,
      "end": 1044.043,
      "text": "因為是算力證券化",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1044.043,
      "end": 1046.111,
      "text": "對不是土地建築證券化",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1046.111,
      "end": 1047.88,
      "text": "所以你能搬的只能把GPU搬走",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1047.88,
      "end": 1049.515,
      "text": "對你的真的斷了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1049.515,
      "end": 1051.316,
      "text": "你只剩GPU的殘值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1051.316,
      "end": 1051.85,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1051.85,
      "end": 1052.618,
      "text": "你要自己去拆",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1052.618,
      "end": 1053.819,
      "text": "然後你去拿那GPU",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1053.819,
      "end": 1055.054,
      "text": "搞不好被超爆都不知道",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1055.054,
      "end": 1056.855,
      "text": "好 我們先不講他賣不出去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1056.855,
      "end": 1057.489,
      "text": "GPU的問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1057.489,
      "end": 1058.757,
      "text": "假設他都可以穩穩的賣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1058.757,
      "end": 1059.925,
      "text": "好 那真正的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1059.925,
      "end": 1061.36,
      "text": "其實是這一棟樓的租金？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1061.36,
      "end": 1064.063,
      "text": "就是這棟樓的租金其實是80%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1064.063,
      "end": 1065.697,
      "text": "可能來自同一個大房客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1065.697,
      "end": 1067.166,
      "text": "他的集中度非常的高",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1067.166,
      "end": 1067.866,
      "text": "就是你包租",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1067.866,
      "end": 1069.535,
      "text": "公拿這份租約去跟銀行借錢？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1069.535,
      "end": 1071.57,
      "text": "然後你的二房東拿著同一批客戶的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1071.57,
      "end": 1072.771,
      "text": "合約去借錢買設備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1072.771,
      "end": 1073.739,
      "text": "然後你的投資銀行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1073.739,
      "end": 1075.474,
      "text": "再把這些租金打包成商品",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1075.474,
      "end": 1077.176,
      "text": "賣給保險公司跟賣給退休基金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1077.176,
      "end": 1078.41,
      "text": "所以這一棟樓他其實",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1078.41,
      "end": 1079.311,
      "text": "沒有被抵押四次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1079.311,
      "end": 1081.28,
      "text": "但是這一次群人就是全部",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1081.28,
      "end": 1082.981,
      "text": "依賴這個大租客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1082.981,
      "end": 1084.483,
      "text": "就是每個月來匯錢給他",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1084.483,
      "end": 1085.684,
      "text": "那如果說這個大租客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1085.684,
      "end": 1086.785,
      "text": "只要delay一次？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1086.785,
      "end": 1089.021,
      "text": "那這四組人會很痛會失眠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1089.021,
      "end": 1090.656,
      "text": "因為這一次的合約裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1090.656,
      "end": 1091.657,
      "text": "有寫他們玩法是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1091.657,
      "end": 1093.492,
      "text": "我不看你這個二房東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1093.492,
      "end": 1094.593,
      "text": "他看的是你二房東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1094.593,
      "end": 1096.328,
      "text": "手上拿到的租約是租給誰？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1096.328,
      "end": 1097.296,
      "text": "所以 重點就是 假如說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1097.296,
      "end": 1098.497,
      "text": "他都是租給Google啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1098.497,
      "end": 1099.198,
      "text": "Microsoft這種",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1099.198,
      "end": 1099.898,
      "text": "他有評級",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1099.898,
      "end": 1101.3,
      "text": "對評級非常好的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1101.3,
      "end": 1102.634,
      "text": "他就說ok我願意借你錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1102.634,
      "end": 1103.869,
      "text": "因為你的租客非常好非常穩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1103.869,
      "end": 1104.837,
      "text": "我願意借你很多錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1104.837,
      "end": 1105.671,
      "text": "所以其實所有的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1105.671,
      "end": 1107.105,
      "text": "現在又全部回到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1107.105,
      "end": 1107.639,
      "text": "大租客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1107.639,
      "end": 1108.774,
      "text": "對這些頂級租客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1108.774,
      "end": 1110.042,
      "text": "所以他們只要開始有問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1110.042,
      "end": 1111.11,
      "text": "會連鎖的報掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1111.11,
      "end": 1111.844,
      "text": "對會直接傳",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1111.844,
      "end": 1113.679,
      "text": "因為大家是盯著他給錢的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1113.679,
      "end": 1115.481,
      "text": "然後我現在要補充更就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1115.481,
      "end": 1117.516,
      "text": "出事的時候會更慘的兩個細節",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1117.516,
      "end": 1118.617,
      "text": "第一個就是所謂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1118.617,
      "end": 1120.252,
      "text": "他們有交叉違約條款",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1120.252,
      "end": 1121.453,
      "text": "假設你今天有三張信用卡",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1121.453,
      "end": 1122.454,
      "text": "來自同一間公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1122.454,
      "end": 1123.355,
      "text": "其中一張長不出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1123.355,
      "end": 1125.124,
      "text": "你的另外兩張也會直接鎖掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1125.124,
      "end": 1125.524,
      "text": "合理",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1125.524,
      "end": 1128.227,
      "text": "對那企業債務合約也是這樣寫的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1128.227,
      "end": 1128.794,
      "text": "就是連動",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1128.794,
      "end": 1130.796,
      "text": "那第二個就是很多的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1130.796,
      "end": 1132.264,
      "text": "不是憑這個租約去放？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1132.264,
      "end": 1133.732,
      "text": "不是憑租金去放款的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1133.732,
      "end": 1135.701,
      "text": "就是有專案融資的律師有說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1135.701,
      "end": 1137.102,
      "text": "就是你很多現在的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1137.102,
      "end": 1138.237,
      "text": "資料中心的這些貸款",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1138.237,
      "end": 1139.505,
      "text": "是按照就是已經簽約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1139.505,
      "end": 1141.206,
      "text": "但是還沒有開始抽錢的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1141.206,
      "end": 1142.641,
      "text": "這些租客的現金有去承諾",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1142.641,
      "end": 1143.475,
      "text": "白話說就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1143.475,
      "end": 1145.244,
      "text": "Maggie答應要給我錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1145.244,
      "end": 1146.378,
      "text": "他可能兩年後要給我",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1146.378,
      "end": 1147.346,
      "text": "我現在先找別人說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1147.346,
      "end": 1149.081,
      "text": "你看Maggie又給我錢的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1149.448,
      "end": 1149.815,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1149.815,
      "end": 1151.483,
      "text": "然後我就說對Maggie是好客戶",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1151.483,
      "end": 1152.084,
      "text": "我給你錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1152.084,
      "end": 1154.753,
      "text": "對就是你銀行看的那一份租約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1154.753,
      "end": 1155.654,
      "text": "你撥了款",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1155.654,
      "end": 1157.523,
      "text": "但是你的租客還沒有搬進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1157.523,
      "end": 1159.525,
      "text": "他也還沒有付過一次的房租",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1159.525,
      "end": 1161.527,
      "text": "所以你的簽約日不等於說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1161.527,
      "end": 1162.561,
      "text": "你的收錢日",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1162.561,
      "end": 1164.63,
      "text": "所以這個防火牆的質量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1164.63,
      "end": 1165.697,
      "text": "我覺得大家要想一下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1165.697,
      "end": 1166.498,
      "text": "他有牆嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1166.498,
      "end": 1166.865,
      "text": "有啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1166.865,
      "end": 1167.699,
      "text": "這樣吧",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1167.699,
      "end": 1168.867,
      "text": "那我要講更危險的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1169.801,
      "end": 1170.702,
      "text": "他有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1171.236,
      "end": 1173.138,
      "text": "對 就是我前面有說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1173.138,
      "end": 1174.706,
      "text": "就是你有無追索權？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1174.706,
      "end": 1176.475,
      "text": "所以你的債主不能來抄家",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1176.475,
      "end": 1177.843,
      "text": "就聽起來比較安全",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1177.843,
      "end": 1179.978,
      "text": "就是雖然他那個牆很薄",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1179.978,
      "end": 1180.946,
      "text": "但還是有牆",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1180.946,
      "end": 1182.247,
      "text": "但這邊不是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1182.247,
      "end": 1183.215,
      "text": "因為你要想",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1183.215,
      "end": 1185.284,
      "text": "如果說今天這套防火牆真的有效",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1185.284,
      "end": 1185.651,
      "text": "那為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1185.651,
      "end": 1187.519,
      "text": "還要有別人來幫你籤這個保證書？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1187.519,
      "end": 1188.153,
      "text": "就為什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1188.954,
      "end": 1190.322,
      "text": "為什麼還要再找大哥",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1190.322,
      "end": 1190.722,
      "text": "對啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1190.722,
      "end": 1191.557,
      "text": "好我先講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1191.557,
      "end": 1192.858,
      "text": "就是現在的真實情況",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1192.858,
      "end": 1193.759,
      "text": "比較傾向這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1193.759,
      "end": 1194.793,
      "text": "就是有四種情況",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1194.793,
      "end": 1196.528,
      "text": "第一種就是很多的案子",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1196.528,
      "end": 1198.497,
      "text": "他附了一張所謂的殘值保證書",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1198.497,
      "end": 1200.599,
      "text": "就是這一批資產如果將來不值錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1200.599,
      "end": 1204.069,
      "text": "我保證會以多少的殘餘價買回",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1204.67,
      "end": 1206.371,
      "text": "但是像是Meta的Hyperion",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1206.371,
      "end": 1207.306,
      "text": "這個資料中心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1207.306,
      "end": 1208.54,
      "text": "專案上面提供的殘值保證",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1208.54,
      "end": 1210.242,
      "text": "涵蓋了前16年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1210.242,
      "end": 1211.443,
      "text": "規模281美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1211.443,
      "end": 1212.277,
      "text": "很大的一個數字",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1212.277,
      "end": 1213.245,
      "text": "然後也保證很久",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1213.245,
      "end": 1214.813,
      "text": "我不知道他為什麼敢開這種支票",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1214.813,
      "end": 1215.914,
      "text": "保證殘值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1215.914,
      "end": 1218.183,
      "text": "為了去消滅所謂的那個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1218.183,
      "end": 1219.284,
      "text": "折舊的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1219.284,
      "end": 1220.519,
      "text": "他告訴你我保證會買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1220.519,
      "end": 1221.92,
      "text": "我跟不到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1221.92,
      "end": 1223.488,
      "text": "等一下殘值保證在哪一段",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1223.488,
      "end": 1224.489,
      "text": "誰跟誰有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1224.489,
      "end": 1225.424,
      "text": "你看Meta在哪",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1225.424,
      "end": 1226.792,
      "text": "Meta是蓋樓的那個保主共",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1226.792,
      "end": 1228.327,
      "text": "所以是蓋樓的那個人跟",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1228.327,
      "end": 1229.161,
      "text": "他跟二房東講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1229.161,
      "end": 1230.629,
      "text": "他跟二房東有個殘值保證",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1230.629,
      "end": 1230.862,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1230.862,
      "end": 1231.797,
      "text": "然後還有另外一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1231.797,
      "end": 1233.532,
      "text": "就是從今年開始",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1233.532,
      "end": 1234.533,
      "text": "NVDA還幹這件事",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1234.533,
      "end": 1236.501,
      "text": "就是他對部分客戶提供了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1236.501,
      "end": 1237.869,
      "text": "6年的最低營收保證",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1237.869,
      "end": 1239.037,
      "text": "然後跟他在自己",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1239.037,
      "end": 1240.706,
      "text": "最新的融資平臺裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1240.706,
      "end": 1243.642,
      "text": "就是提供最高25%的殘值保證",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1243.642,
      "end": 1245.577,
      "text": "就是你賣GPU的那一間公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1245.577,
      "end": 1246.511,
      "text": "自己下場",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1246.511,
      "end": 1248.313,
      "text": "替GPU這個東西的殘值背書",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1248.313,
      "end": 1250.282,
      "text": "就是有點像我賣賓士",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1250.282,
      "end": 1252.017,
      "text": "你跟他說我二手回收",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1252.017,
      "end": 1253.085,
      "text": "二手回收多少錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1253.085,
      "end": 1254.553,
      "text": "就是特斯拉幹過一樣的事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1254.553,
      "end": 1256.788,
      "text": "就是特斯拉的那個舊車換新車",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1256.788,
      "end": 1257.222,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1257.222,
      "end": 1259.424,
      "text": "特斯拉舊車換新車可能還有50%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1259.424,
      "end": 1260.225,
      "text": "這個是25%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1260.225,
      "end": 1261.026,
      "text": "剩25%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1261.026,
      "end": 1261.159,
      "text": "嗯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1261.159,
      "end": 1261.793,
      "text": "特斯拉很賤",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1261.793,
      "end": 1262.961,
      "text": "殘值25%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1262.961,
      "end": 1264.83,
      "text": "我真的覺得他最近有點白白的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1264.83,
      "end": 1265.564,
      "text": "又白白",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1265.564,
      "end": 1265.897,
      "text": "好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1265.897,
      "end": 1267.099,
      "text": "現在的狀況還有第二種",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1267.099,
      "end": 1268.267,
      "text": "就是你的母公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1268.267,
      "end": 1269.935,
      "text": "通常是你唯一的房客",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1269.935,
      "end": 1271.97,
      "text": "就是他承諾長期租下來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1271.97,
      "end": 1273.639,
      "text": "然後也承諾會照付不議",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1273.639,
      "end": 1275.741,
      "text": "甚至還提供所謂的信用擔保",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1275.741,
      "end": 1276.775,
      "text": "但是這一個東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1276.775,
      "end": 1278.443,
      "text": "就是法律上他只是股東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1278.443,
      "end": 1279.044,
      "text": "經濟上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1279.044,
      "end": 1281.513,
      "text": "他是那棟房子唯一的收入來源",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1281.513,
      "end": 1283.281,
      "text": "這個集中度有點太風險了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1283.281,
      "end": 1284.383,
      "text": "第三個狀況就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1284.383,
      "end": 1286.018,
      "text": "如果他真的出事了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1286.018,
      "end": 1286.985,
      "text": "法院不一定會買單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1286.985,
      "end": 1287.419,
      "text": "什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1287.419,
      "end": 1288.52,
      "text": "就是因為現在有一些",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1288.52,
      "end": 1290.022,
      "text": "律師事務所已經有看到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1290.022,
      "end": 1292.424,
      "text": "如果說你的母公司透過保證租約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1292.424,
      "end": 1293.825,
      "text": "跟營運控制 實質",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1293.825,
      "end": 1296.295,
      "text": "主導了這間新的公司的所有一切",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1296.295,
      "end": 1297.863,
      "text": "你的債權人可能會主張說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1297.863,
      "end": 1299.164,
      "text": "這根本就是同一間公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1299.164,
      "end": 1300.866,
      "text": "所以他會要求所謂的穿透賠償",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1300.866,
      "end": 1301.4,
      "text": "法道說就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1301.4,
      "end": 1303.802,
      "text": "你把公司明面上看起來是分開的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1303.802,
      "end": 1305.003,
      "text": "但是這個防火牆",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1305.003,
      "end": 1306.305,
      "text": "就是我們剛剛說的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1306.305,
      "end": 1307.372,
      "text": "就是紫門",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1307.372,
      "end": 1308.774,
      "text": "所以他可能會這樣穿透過去的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1308.774,
      "end": 1309.975,
      "text": "這個風險沒有消失",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1309.975,
      "end": 1310.976,
      "text": "他只是換了一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1310.976,
      "end": 1312.077,
      "text": "現在看起來不太吸引",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1312.077,
      "end": 1312.844,
      "text": "人的地方先待著",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1312.844,
      "end": 1314.68,
      "text": "好再來就是GPU折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1314.68,
      "end": 1316.782,
      "text": "這個東西我們講好幾次了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1316.782,
      "end": 1317.616,
      "text": "他算是整個估算",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1317.616,
      "end": 1319.251,
      "text": "裡面就是牽一髮動全身的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1319.251,
      "end": 1320.786,
      "text": "所以我要講這是跟房地產",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1320.786,
      "end": 1321.653,
      "text": "那次的區別在哪？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1321.653,
      "end": 1323.355,
      "text": "如果說你今天的抵押品是土地",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1323.355,
      "end": 1323.955,
      "text": "你沒有問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1323.955,
      "end": 1324.856,
      "text": "因為土地不會壞掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1324.856,
      "end": 1326.391,
      "text": "但如果說你今天的抵押品是GPU",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1326.391,
      "end": 1328.593,
      "text": "現在各大雲端巨頭的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1328.593,
      "end": 1331.196,
      "text": "這些認列的使用年限相差很大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1331.196,
      "end": 1332.631,
      "text": "Amazon的話是現在是5年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1332.631,
      "end": 1333.832,
      "text": "Meta的話是5.5年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1333.832,
      "end": 1335.233,
      "text": "微軟和Google的話是維持6年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1335.233,
      "end": 1337.402,
      "text": "現場工程估算應該是3年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1337.402,
      "end": 1337.803,
      "text": "這是一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1337.803,
      "end": 1339.137,
      "text": "那還有再來就是現在的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1339.137,
      "end": 1340.539,
      "text": "租金數據其實也是打架的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1340.539,
      "end": 1341.506,
      "text": "就是 H100的租金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1341.506,
      "end": 1343.909,
      "text": "從2024年初是每小時7到10美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1343.909,
      "end": 1346.078,
      "text": "跌到2025年底是2到4美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1346.078,
      "end": 1347.579,
      "text": "那2026年又回升了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1347.579,
      "end": 1348.98,
      "text": "現在的價格是2美元到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1348.98,
      "end": 1349.681,
      "text": "3美元之間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1349.681,
      "end": 1351.917,
      "text": "所以這個回升現在算是利多了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1351.917,
      "end": 1352.784,
      "text": "我覺得還算利多了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1352.784,
      "end": 1354.319,
      "text": "那目前的評級機構也是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1354.319,
      "end": 1355.22,
      "text": "吵得非常兇",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1355.22,
      "end": 1357.322,
      "text": "就是標普是拒絕給AAA",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1357.322,
      "end": 1358.724,
      "text": "那其他什麼穆迪啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1358.724,
      "end": 1359.224,
      "text": "慧玉啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1359.224,
      "end": 1360.225,
      "text": "這些是給AAA的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1360.225,
      "end": 1361.96,
      "text": "所以我覺得看標普比較準一點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1361.96,
      "end": 1363.495,
      "text": "他上次對的就他",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1363.495,
      "end": 1364.696,
      "text": "所以他就是乖一點嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1364.696,
      "end": 1365.597,
      "text": "他現在比較嚴格啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1366.064,
      "end": 1367.299,
      "text": "他就是乖一點嘛拜託",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1367.299,
      "end": 1369.201,
      "text": "可是重點是其他人還給到AAA",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1369.201,
      "end": 1370.202,
      "text": "對我不能理解",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1370.202,
      "end": 1372.137,
      "text": "我不懂為什麼穆迪可以給到AAA",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1372.137,
      "end": 1373.505,
      "text": "然後還有還沒講完",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1373.505,
      "end": 1374.306,
      "text": "風情還沒講完",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1374.306,
      "end": 1375.474,
      "text": "心好痛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1375.474,
      "end": 1377.409,
      "text": "我們場外飄出一句心好痛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1377.409,
      "end": 1378.61,
      "text": "沒有先等等",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1378.61,
      "end": 1379.878,
      "text": "先等等先等等",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1379.878,
      "end": 1381.079,
      "text": "先聽完先聽完",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1381.079,
      "end": 1382.881,
      "text": "然後再來一個就是現在債務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1382.881,
      "end": 1384.916,
      "text": "這件事情開始往下蔓延了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1384.916,
      "end": 1387.385,
      "text": "2000年這個債主要是壓在電信商",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1387.385,
      "end": 1389.054,
      "text": "他自己本身的制裁負債表上面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1389.054,
      "end": 1390.856,
      "text": "所以你基本上只要看了財報",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1390.856,
      "end": 1391.857,
      "text": "你就會看得到他的債",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1391.857,
      "end": 1394.059,
      "text": "那現在這個債正在往外搬",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1394.059,
      "end": 1396.561,
      "text": "就是搬到了資料中心的開發商啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1396.561,
      "end": 1398.263,
      "text": "私募基金裡面啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1398.263,
      "end": 1400.132,
      "text": "電力專案融資裡面啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1400.132,
      "end": 1402.467,
      "text": "租賃就是算力租賃這些業者身上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1402.467,
      "end": 1403.568,
      "text": "所以他蔓延出去了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1403.568,
      "end": 1404.803,
      "text": "他不會只留在他身上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1404.803,
      "end": 1406.738,
      "text": "所以你看我這五大巨頭的財報",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1406.738,
      "end": 1408.874,
      "text": "你會低估了整個系統的槓桿",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1408.874,
      "end": 1409.941,
      "text": "因為現在的規模有多大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1409.941,
      "end": 1411.443,
      "text": "就是Meta的那個資料中心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1411.443,
      "end": 1413.812,
      "text": "他有跟Blue Owl的合資 公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1413.812,
      "end": 1414.713,
      "text": "發行了一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1414.713,
      "end": 1416.815,
      "text": "272億美元的優先擔保債券",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1416.815,
      "end": 1418.016,
      "text": "票息是6.5%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1418.016,
      "end": 1418.917,
      "text": "6.58%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1418.917,
      "end": 1420.919,
      "text": "然後2049年才到期",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1420.919,
      "end": 1422.02,
      "text": "標普給A家",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1422.487,
      "end": 1423.522,
      "text": "呵呵呵",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1423.522,
      "end": 1426.158,
      "text": "他很有自信我可以撐到2049年欸",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1426.158,
      "end": 1427.459,
      "text": "然後目的有算過",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1427.459,
      "end": 1429.161,
      "text": "就是現在五大雲廠商已經簽約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1429.161,
      "end": 1430.796,
      "text": "但還沒起訴的租賃合約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1430.796,
      "end": 1432.764,
      "text": "大概合計是6620億美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1432.764,
      "end": 1433.265,
      "text": "所以等",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1433.265,
      "end": 1435.634,
      "text": "於是他們調整後的債務的113%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1435.634,
      "end": 1436.401,
      "text": "還記得開頭",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1436.401,
      "end": 1438.036,
      "text": "我說NVIDIA的那個新聞",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1438.036,
      "end": 1439.738,
      "text": "就是他開始要組揪了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1439.738,
      "end": 1441.006,
      "text": "那這個就是這件事情的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1441.006,
      "end": 1441.473,
      "text": "下一個階段",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1441.473,
      "end": 1442.007,
      "text": "就會長這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1442.007,
      "end": 1443.508,
      "text": "因為以前玩得起這種所",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1443.508,
      "end": 1444.376,
      "text": "謂的表外接待的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1444.376,
      "end": 1445.277,
      "text": "就這五家嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1445.277,
      "end": 1445.977,
      "text": "其他人沒有嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1445.977,
      "end": 1447.712,
      "text": "因為第三方業者沒有這種信用嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1447.712,
      "end": 1449.448,
      "text": "那現在NVIDIA出來揪團",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1449.448,
      "end": 1450.015,
      "text": "團購",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1450.015,
      "end": 1450.282,
      "text": "就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1450.282,
      "end": 1451.85,
      "text": "對啊不能只有你們玩我也要玩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1451.85,
      "end": 1453.318,
      "text": "對 所以他把私募信貸的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1453.318,
      "end": 1454.119,
      "text": "巨頭也拉進來了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1454.119,
      "end": 1455.754,
      "text": "所以他這次開的是5000億美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1455.754,
      "end": 1456.755,
      "text": "的第三方資本引進",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1456.755,
      "end": 1457.722,
      "text": "客觀事實就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1457.722,
      "end": 1459.724,
      "text": "這一套玩法從最頂尖的這五家",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1459.724,
      "end": 1462.294,
      "text": "蔓延到了體質跟這五家有落差的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1462.294,
      "end": 1464.262,
      "text": "中小型其他的算力的業者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1464.262,
      "end": 1466.164,
      "text": "因為這幾家他這次拉進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1466.164,
      "end": 1467.466,
      "text": "這幾家私募信貸的巨頭",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1467.466,
      "end": 1469.0,
      "text": "他們就是放貸很靈活嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1469.0,
      "end": 1469.901,
      "text": "速度很快嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1469.901,
      "end": 1472.304,
      "text": "然後也比較支持創新的產業嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1472.304,
      "end": 1474.673,
      "text": "但是他就是透明度低槓桿也高",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1474.673,
      "end": 1475.907,
      "text": "然後也沒有銀行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1475.907,
      "end": 1477.742,
      "text": "必須要做壓力設施的這個條件",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1477.742,
      "end": 1479.177,
      "text": "而且這次銀行還放款哦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1479.177,
      "end": 1479.344,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1479.344,
      "end": 1480.212,
      "text": "所以就是沒有人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1480.212,
      "end": 1481.58,
      "text": "知道這裡面到底有多少雷包",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1481.58,
      "end": 1483.915,
      "text": "可是好消息是現在這六大巨頭",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1483.915,
      "end": 1486.117,
      "text": "私募信貸這六大巨頭錢是很多啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1486.117,
      "end": 1487.586,
      "text": "只是他們沒有足夠好的產品",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1487.586,
      "end": 1488.82,
      "text": "去吸引別人來買他們的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1488.82,
      "end": 1489.154,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1489.154,
      "end": 1490.822,
      "text": "但是他2025年爆過",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1490.822,
      "end": 1491.957,
      "text": "也是這幾家哦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1491.957,
      "end": 1492.991,
      "text": "好回過頭來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1492.991,
      "end": 1493.925,
      "text": "就是講完風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1493.925,
      "end": 1494.96,
      "text": "我們要回來看嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1494.96,
      "end": 1496.728,
      "text": "就是那這些收入到底",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1496.728,
      "end": 1497.863,
      "text": "有多少是真的？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1497.863,
      "end": 1498.964,
      "text": "就是Google跟Amazon",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1498.964,
      "end": 1500.465,
      "text": "現在自由現金都是轉付了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1500.465,
      "end": 1503.068,
      "text": "然後之前的AI的基礎建設",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1503.068,
      "end": 1503.802,
      "text": "主要是靠著他",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1503.802,
      "end": 1505.437,
      "text": "現在主業的現金來撐嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1505.437,
      "end": 1506.838,
      "text": "就是所謂廣告雲端軟體",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1506.838,
      "end": 1507.672,
      "text": "跟電商的抽成",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1507.672,
      "end": 1509.641,
      "text": "那從今年開始會越來越像",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1509.641,
      "end": 1511.276,
      "text": "就是靠融資去驅動的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1511.276,
      "end": 1512.277,
      "text": "所以這件事情的麻煩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1512.277,
      "end": 1513.879,
      "text": "不是說他的槓桿這件事情而已",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1513.879,
      "end": 1515.38,
      "text": "而是他牽扯到他自己",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1515.38,
      "end": 1516.448,
      "text": "收入的真實性",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1516.448,
      "end": 1518.25,
      "text": "就是因為如果說你的收入不真實",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1518.25,
      "end": 1520.185,
      "text": "你會反過頭來增加你槓桿的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1520.185,
      "end": 1520.519,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1520.519,
      "end": 1521.286,
      "text": "這邊的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1521.286,
      "end": 1523.221,
      "text": "很多時候其實沒有真的付出去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1523.221,
      "end": 1525.223,
      "text": "因為現在這些頂尖的AI模型公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1525.223,
      "end": 1526.658,
      "text": "如果說他真的只靠股權融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1526.658,
      "end": 1529.06,
      "text": "他恐怕連他的訓練費都付不出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1529.06,
      "end": 1529.261,
      "text": "所以",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1529.261,
      "end": 1531.296,
      "text": "現實中他們付給雲端廠商的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1531.296,
      "end": 1533.498,
      "text": "很大一部分不是現金是記帳",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1533.498,
      "end": 1533.999,
      "text": "我捨得",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1533.999,
      "end": 1534.633,
      "text": "立牆上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1534.633,
      "end": 1535.2,
      "text": "用抵銷",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1535.2,
      "end": 1535.8,
      "text": "什麼意思呢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1535.8,
      "end": 1536.902,
      "text": "就是他抵銷方式有兩個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1536.902,
      "end": 1537.536,
      "text": "就是一部分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1537.536,
      "end": 1539.538,
      "text": "是這些雲廠商的投資款",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1539.538,
      "end": 1541.373,
      "text": "但是所謂的投資也不是給真錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1541.373,
      "end": 1543.475,
      "text": "而是把算力折就折成投資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1543.475,
      "end": 1545.577,
      "text": "那一部分是用所謂的算力抵用券",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1545.577,
      "end": 1546.278,
      "text": "就是雲廠商",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1546.278,
      "end": 1547.746,
      "text": "他自己也是AI的使用大戶嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1547.746,
      "end": 1549.548,
      "text": "所以他付給這個模型公司的分成",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1549.548,
      "end": 1551.016,
      "text": "用抵用券去對銷完了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1551.016,
      "end": 1552.317,
      "text": "所以 剩下的才是我們",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1552.317,
      "end": 1553.718,
      "text": "現在大家看到所謂的ARR",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1553.718,
      "end": 1554.92,
      "text": "聽起來有點複雜對我解釋",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1554.92,
      "end": 1556.621,
      "text": "臺灣人一定聽得懂下一張",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1616.848,
      "end": 1618.85,
      "text": "大家有聽什麼蛋塔工廠嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1618.85,
      "end": 1619.884,
      "text": "蛋塔狂熱",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1619.884,
      "end": 1620.852,
      "text": "就年輕一點可能不知道",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1620.852,
      "end": 1623.188,
      "text": "但是我用手搖飲來加盟",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1623.188,
      "end": 1624.189,
      "text": "這件事情應該就可以懂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1624.189,
      "end": 1626.124,
      "text": "這個狀況就有點像是你今年一年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1626.124,
      "end": 1628.259,
      "text": "開200家手搖飲料店的品牌",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1628.259,
      "end": 1629.961,
      "text": "你的總部財報會非常漂亮對不對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1629.961,
      "end": 1630.829,
      "text": "因為你的加盟金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1630.829,
      "end": 1631.596,
      "text": "你的機器設備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1631.596,
      "end": 1632.163,
      "text": "你的原物料",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1632.163,
      "end": 1633.031,
      "text": "你每開一家新店",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1633.031,
      "end": 1634.232,
      "text": "基本上都是一筆新的營收",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1634.232,
      "end": 1634.633,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1634.633,
      "end": 1636.768,
      "text": "所以你的開店數的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1636.768,
      "end": 1637.936,
      "text": "那個曲線是一路往上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1637.936,
      "end": 1639.237,
      "text": "但是如果你今天去問一句啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1639.237,
      "end": 1640.972,
      "text": "你這200家店的錢是哪裡來的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1640.972,
      "end": 1642.707,
      "text": "有一部分是總部直接",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1642.707,
      "end": 1643.842,
      "text": "借給加盟主的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1643.842,
      "end": 1646.845,
      "text": "那一部分是用所謂的設備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1646.845,
      "end": 1648.98,
      "text": "折抵加盟金的方式去做掉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1648.98,
      "end": 1651.149,
      "text": "所以根本沒有現金真實的往來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1651.149,
      "end": 1652.584,
      "text": "所以加盟主他一旦簽了約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1652.584,
      "end": 1654.285,
      "text": "你的原料就只能跟總部進",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1654.285,
      "end": 1655.887,
      "text": "所以總部的營收會一直漂亮下去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1655.887,
      "end": 1657.322,
      "text": "因為只要他願意借錢出去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1657.322,
      "end": 1659.124,
      "text": "願意有人繼續開新店",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1659.124,
      "end": 1660.492,
      "text": "他就會一直營收漂亮",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1660.492,
      "end": 1662.027,
      "text": "那所以真正該問的問題就是一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1662.027,
      "end": 1662.994,
      "text": "你這200家店",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1662.994,
      "end": 1664.663,
      "text": "真正賣給客人的杯數",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1664.663,
      "end": 1665.73,
      "text": "有沒有跟著成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1665.73,
      "end": 1666.564,
      "text": "這就是所謂的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1666.564,
      "end": 1668.733,
      "text": "用融資來創造需求的方式",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1668.733,
      "end": 1670.502,
      "text": "所以你從外面來看",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1670.502,
      "end": 1671.403,
      "text": "就是你這一條鏈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1671.403,
      "end": 1673.104,
      "text": "看起來就是大家歌舞平生",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1673.104,
      "end": 1673.938,
      "text": "非常的繁榮",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1673.938,
      "end": 1675.94,
      "text": "就是你的雲端廠商增加資本開支",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1675.94,
      "end": 1677.008,
      "text": "買GPU蓋技法",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1677.008,
      "end": 1678.51,
      "text": "然後產生AI的服務收入",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1678.51,
      "end": 1680.111,
      "text": "然後AI公司再買雲服務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1680.111,
      "end": 1680.979,
      "text": "然後形成新的收入",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1680.979,
      "end": 1683.615,
      "text": "然後模型廠再從雲端廠到雲端廠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1683.615,
      "end": 1684.983,
      "text": "然後從資料中心到第三方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1684.983,
      "end": 1686.985,
      "text": "算力租借業者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1686.985,
      "end": 1688.753,
      "text": "然後從晶片廠到上游供應鏈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1688.753,
      "end": 1690.522,
      "text": "這些訂單看起來都非常的熱鬧",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1690.522,
      "end": 1692.123,
      "text": "但是實際上就是你欠我的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1692.123,
      "end": 1693.458,
      "text": "我欠他的他欠你的這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1693.458,
      "end": 1694.759,
      "text": "大家可以稍微去看就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1694.759,
      "end": 1695.693,
      "text": "我假如是在NVIDIA",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1695.693,
      "end": 1696.895,
      "text": "我借錢給我",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1696.895,
      "end": 1698.596,
      "text": "底下的廠商來買我的晶片",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1698.596,
      "end": 1699.964,
      "text": "所以看起來大家的財報都很好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1699.964,
      "end": 1701.166,
      "text": "我有買到東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1701.166,
      "end": 1702.5,
      "text": "然後我有收入我有賺錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1702.5,
      "end": 1703.535,
      "text": "但是這個錢其實是最",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1703.535,
      "end": 1704.302,
      "text": "上層的借給下面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1704.302,
      "end": 1705.77,
      "text": "然後在中間的再借給下面的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1705.77,
      "end": 1707.005,
      "text": "然後大家就牽一牽就這樣繞一圈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1707.005,
      "end": 1707.205,
      "text": "所以",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1707.205,
      "end": 1708.306,
      "text": "剛剛Maggie講的整個重點就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1708.306,
      "end": 1709.941,
      "text": "好你們這樣繞沒關係你們儘量繞",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1709.941,
      "end": 1711.443,
      "text": "但外面到底有沒有真的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1711.443,
      "end": 1712.61,
      "text": "花錢來買你們的產品",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1712.61,
      "end": 1716.948,
      "text": "或買你們的服務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1716.948,
      "end": 1718.583,
      "text": "對這個東西其實",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1718.583,
      "end": 1719.684,
      "text": "這樣的商業模式",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1719.684,
      "end": 1721.619,
      "text": "我們生活中就有了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1721.619,
      "end": 1722.32,
      "text": "臺灣就有案例",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1722.32,
      "end": 1724.289,
      "text": "對就是有案例就是可以看得出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1724.289,
      "end": 1726.324,
      "text": "所以講白就是現在的AI的收入",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1726.324,
      "end": 1727.692,
      "text": "缺乏所謂的獨立性",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1727.692,
      "end": 1729.36,
      "text": "就是他不是從他AI的生態裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1729.36,
      "end": 1730.195,
      "text": "自己長出來的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1730.195,
      "end": 1732.43,
      "text": "那到底什麼才叫做真實的需求",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1732.43,
      "end": 1734.132,
      "text": "就是投資AI產業鏈這個東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1734.132,
      "end": 1735.066,
      "text": "你其實不能只看訂單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1735.066,
      "end": 1736.568,
      "text": "因為關鍵是就是這些需求",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1736.568,
      "end": 1737.902,
      "text": "有多少是來自最終用戶",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1737.902,
      "end": 1740.238,
      "text": "你有多少是來自產業內部的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1740.238,
      "end": 1741.072,
      "text": "去轉出來的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1741.072,
      "end": 1742.24,
      "text": "那後者我不會說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1742.24,
      "end": 1743.208,
      "text": "它是一個假的需求",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1743.208,
      "end": 1744.442,
      "text": "但是這個需求要打折",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1744.442,
      "end": 1745.51,
      "text": "甚至打對摺",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1745.51,
      "end": 1747.212,
      "text": "那真正獨立需求是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1747.212,
      "end": 1748.88,
      "text": "你要扣除雲端廠商的資金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1748.88,
      "end": 1749.781,
      "text": "一些投資啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1749.781,
      "end": 1750.682,
      "text": "算力率付款啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1750.682,
      "end": 1751.983,
      "text": "算力抵用券這些之後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1751.983,
      "end": 1752.684,
      "text": "阿里阿搭之後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1752.684,
      "end": 1754.686,
      "text": "那些純粹用現金流付出來的錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1754.686,
      "end": 1755.22,
      "text": "收入啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1755.22,
      "end": 1756.688,
      "text": "這些人才是真正願意",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1756.688,
      "end": 1757.689,
      "text": "長期付錢的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1757.689,
      "end": 1758.623,
      "text": "那現在問題就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1758.623,
      "end": 1759.424,
      "text": "這個數字是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1759.424,
      "end": 1760.825,
      "text": "現在目前沒有人可以統計出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1760.825,
      "end": 1762.36,
      "text": "因為它真的太亂了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1762.36,
      "end": 1763.461,
      "text": "所以有一個替代指標",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1763.461,
      "end": 1764.829,
      "text": "就是我前面講那個加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1764.829,
      "end": 1766.331,
      "text": "就是現在因為現在資本開支",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1766.331,
      "end": 1767.265,
      "text": "你不管怎麼砸嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1767.265,
      "end": 1769.634,
      "text": "你對最多你只能推動的是速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1769.634,
      "end": 1771.803,
      "text": "那你這個加速度要繼續往上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1771.803,
      "end": 1772.971,
      "text": "一定是我剛剛說的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1772.971,
      "end": 1774.506,
      "text": "你這個內循環外面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1774.506,
      "end": 1775.974,
      "text": "有多了新的力量進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1775.974,
      "end": 1777.976,
      "text": "有額外的新的需求進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1777.976,
      "end": 1779.677,
      "text": "有新的進來加速度才會上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1779.677,
      "end": 1780.912,
      "text": "對所以一定要有新進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1780.912,
      "end": 1781.446,
      "text": "才會有加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1781.446,
      "end": 1782.914,
      "text": "現在唯一能看的就是加速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1782.914,
      "end": 1783.448,
      "text": "好來啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1783.448,
      "end": 1785.717,
      "text": "最後最後誰要扛債呢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1785.717,
      "end": 1787.852,
      "text": "如果真的發生了系統性風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1787.852,
      "end": 1788.787,
      "text": "誰要還錢呢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1788.787,
      "end": 1791.022,
      "text": "如果說你把AI的基礎建設的債務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1791.022,
      "end": 1792.59,
      "text": "你一層一層往下傳導",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1792.59,
      "end": 1793.925,
      "text": "你會發現最後扛的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1793.925,
      "end": 1795.56,
      "text": "跟我們一開始想的會不太一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1795.56,
      "end": 1796.661,
      "text": "因為一開始我們一定想說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1796.661,
      "end": 1798.863,
      "text": "那一定就是那五大雲服務廠商嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1798.863,
      "end": 1799.33,
      "text": "但不是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1799.33,
      "end": 1801.266,
      "text": "因為第一層表面上的承擔者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1801.266,
      "end": 1803.001,
      "text": "就是所謂的AI模型跟運營廠商",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1803.001,
      "end": 1803.935,
      "text": "因為這些都是局吧",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1803.935,
      "end": 1804.803,
      "text": "就很多人認為說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1804.803,
      "end": 1805.87,
      "text": "AI債務風險不大的原因",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1805.87,
      "end": 1806.204,
      "text": "也是因為",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1806.204,
      "end": 1807.539,
      "text": "他們之間有所謂的長期合約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1807.539,
      "end": 1808.006,
      "text": "他承諾",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1808.006,
      "end": 1809.774,
      "text": "未來十年可能會採購多少專利",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1809.774,
      "end": 1810.942,
      "text": "那會計上這個東西不會",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1810.942,
      "end": 1811.743,
      "text": "顯示為債務？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1811.743,
      "end": 1812.143,
      "text": "實質上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1812.143,
      "end": 1814.112,
      "text": "就是拿未來的現金流去做擔保",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1814.112,
      "end": 1815.98,
      "text": "那第二層就是越來越多的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1815.98,
      "end": 1816.781,
      "text": "實際借款人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1816.781,
      "end": 1818.55,
      "text": "其實是資料中心的專案的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1818.55,
      "end": 1820.652,
      "text": "就是他會成立一家特殊目的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1820.652,
      "end": 1822.821,
      "text": "負責買地負責建設負責承擔債務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1822.821,
      "end": 1824.589,
      "text": "那收入主要來自這些模型",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1824.589,
      "end": 1825.79,
      "text": "公司的長期租賃費",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1825.79,
      "end": 1826.991,
      "text": "法律上債在這家公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1826.991,
      "end": 1828.293,
      "text": "但是運營廠商看不到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1828.293,
      "end": 1829.527,
      "text": "我們其實在Google財報",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1829.527,
      "end": 1830.562,
      "text": "那一集解析的時候有說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1830.562,
      "end": 1832.13,
      "text": "還有他的債其實藏",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1832.13,
      "end": 1833.765,
      "text": "在他額外的一個小公司上面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1833.765,
      "end": 1834.899,
      "text": "其實就妹剛剛前面講的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1834.899,
      "end": 1836.067,
      "text": "他母公司Google當然",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1836.067,
      "end": 1837.068,
      "text": "會開其他子公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1837.068,
      "end": 1838.77,
      "text": "去做這些借貸跟這些操作",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1838.77,
      "end": 1839.671,
      "text": "所以你們兩個要並在一起",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1839.671,
      "end": 1841.639,
      "text": "對 就是 你可以從Google那一集",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1841.639,
      "end": 1842.774,
      "text": "再看到這一集",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1842.774,
      "end": 1844.075,
      "text": "你應該懂我在講什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1844.075,
      "end": 1846.544,
      "text": "好 那第三層就是早期的債權",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1846.544,
      "end": 1847.378,
      "text": "在銀行裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1847.378,
      "end": 1848.213,
      "text": "就是很多人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1848.213,
      "end": 1850.782,
      "text": "從銀行的財務狀況去判斷說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1850.782,
      "end": 1851.382,
      "text": "AI的融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1851.382,
      "end": 1853.218,
      "text": "有沒有在大規模的金融風險？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1853.218,
      "end": 1853.985,
      "text": "對 但是銀行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1853.985,
      "end": 1856.688,
      "text": "他通常不會長期持有全部風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1856.688,
      "end": 1858.59,
      "text": "他會打包成證券化商品賣出去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1858.59,
      "end": 1859.791,
      "text": "就跟其實08年一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1859.791,
      "end": 1860.992,
      "text": "就是你傳統銀行的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1860.992,
      "end": 1861.726,
      "text": "財務看起來很安全",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1861.726,
      "end": 1862.827,
      "text": "不代表說社會",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1862.827,
      "end": 1863.928,
      "text": "上面有所謂的金融險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1863.928,
      "end": 1864.662,
      "text": "對 第四層",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1864.662,
      "end": 1866.931,
      "text": "就是所謂的真正的最終的債權人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1866.931,
      "end": 1868.233,
      "text": "是機構投資者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1868.233,
      "end": 1869.867,
      "text": "就是你證券化商品其實是賣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1869.867,
      "end": 1871.836,
      "text": "給所謂的退休金和保險公司？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1871.836,
      "end": 1873.605,
      "text": "因為他們對於這種長期現金流的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1873.605,
      "end": 1874.405,
      "text": "投資基債券",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1874.405,
      "end": 1875.64,
      "text": "他們的配置需求非常的高",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1875.64,
      "end": 1876.774,
      "text": "那當然還有中央公司在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1876.774,
      "end": 1878.009,
      "text": "後面就是幫他們背書",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1878.009,
      "end": 1878.576,
      "text": "所以最後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1878.576,
      "end": 1880.678,
      "text": "實際承擔人其實是一般的投資人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1880.678,
      "end": 1882.48,
      "text": "因為是我們去買了這些商品",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1882.48,
      "end": 1883.514,
      "text": "因為是你的退休金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1883.514,
      "end": 1884.349,
      "text": "去買了這些商品",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1884.349,
      "end": 1885.316,
      "text": "是你的保險公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1885.316,
      "end": 1886.584,
      "text": "幫你去買了這些商品",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1886.584,
      "end": 1888.052,
      "text": "所以你的保單跟你的退休金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1888.052,
      "end": 1888.82,
      "text": "可能已經在裡面了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1888.82,
      "end": 1889.52,
      "text": "只是你不知道而已",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1889.52,
      "end": 1890.488,
      "text": "好 那我們就來看",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1890.488,
      "end": 1893.625,
      "text": "就是現在最脆弱的地方在哪？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1893.625,
      "end": 1895.126,
      "text": "就我剛剛其實對外的時候有講到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1895.126,
      "end": 1897.228,
      "text": "就是誰會先最早感受到壓力",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1897.228,
      "end": 1898.463,
      "text": "跟誰出事真的會最慘",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1898.463,
      "end": 1898.73,
      "text": "其實",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1898.73,
      "end": 1900.565,
      "text": "最早的成壓的應該會是AI的應用",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1900.565,
      "end": 1901.733,
      "text": "跟一些小型的新創公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1901.733,
      "end": 1903.501,
      "text": "因為算力會越來越 算力貴嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1903.501,
      "end": 1905.069,
      "text": "那再來是他競爭激烈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1905.069,
      "end": 1906.571,
      "text": "那收入可能會低於成本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1906.571,
      "end": 1907.538,
      "text": "雖然他成長很快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1907.538,
      "end": 1908.506,
      "text": "但是 基本上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1908.506,
      "end": 1910.708,
      "text": "他的客戶只要砍掉他的AI運算",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1910.708,
      "end": 1912.644,
      "text": "或者是他的Token去打他價格戰",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1912.644,
      "end": 1913.778,
      "text": "那這些公司會死得最快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1913.778,
      "end": 1916.447,
      "text": "那再來是資料中心的營運商",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1916.447,
      "end": 1917.682,
      "text": "因為他的資產非常的重",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1917.682,
      "end": 1918.616,
      "text": "他負債率很高",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1918.616,
      "end": 1920.451,
      "text": "他收入會依賴少數大客戶",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1920.451,
      "end": 1922.52,
      "text": "然後同時GPU會加速折舊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1922.52,
      "end": 1924.622,
      "text": "那這些大客戶開始減少採購啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1924.622,
      "end": 1926.324,
      "text": "或者是他空置率一旦上升的話",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1926.324,
      "end": 1928.426,
      "text": "這些新一輪的融資可能拿不到錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1928.426,
      "end": 1930.061,
      "text": "那他就會陷入開始陷入債務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1930.061,
      "end": 1931.562,
      "text": "危機的這個循環裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1931.562,
      "end": 1933.564,
      "text": "所以他這個會比較接近就是所謂的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1933.564,
      "end": 1935.066,
      "text": "房地產開發商的那個狀態",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1935.066,
      "end": 1937.201,
      "text": "但是最危險的其實還不是這兩個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1937.201,
      "end": 1939.17,
      "text": "最危險的就是像 我點名了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1939.17,
      "end": 1940.505,
      "text": "就是CoreWeave這樣的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1940.505,
      "end": 1942.34,
      "text": "就是他是高槓杆的第三方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1942.34,
      "end": 1943.741,
      "text": "GPU租賃的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1943.741,
      "end": 1945.977,
      "text": "就是我們之前講過二房東的角色",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1945.977,
      "end": 1947.879,
      "text": "對 因為你技術包裝再好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1947.879,
      "end": 1949.781,
      "text": "或者是你的核心商業的模式",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1949.781,
      "end": 1951.983,
      "text": "就是大量買GPU去做出租嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1951.983,
      "end": 1954.052,
      "text": "那他現在賺的錢就不是價差",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1954.052,
      "end": 1955.92,
      "text": "還有所謂的算力的溢價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1955.92,
      "end": 1957.455,
      "text": "那但是他的槓桿非常的高",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1957.455,
      "end": 1960.258,
      "text": "就是他現在的債務股本比是13.8",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1960.258,
      "end": 1961.96,
      "text": "對 然後他的調整後的營業",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1961.96,
      "end": 1963.728,
      "text": "利潤率是指引給的是8%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1963.728,
      "end": 1965.997,
      "text": "然後遠低於長期目標25%到30%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1965.997,
      "end": 1967.465,
      "text": "而且他的合約基本上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1967.465,
      "end": 1968.566,
      "text": "已經全部抵出去了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1968.566,
      "end": 1970.835,
      "text": "所以一旦他的收入成長低於預期",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1970.835,
      "end": 1972.971,
      "text": "或者是低於GPU折舊的速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1972.971,
      "end": 1974.739,
      "text": "他的資產減值的這個壓力",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1974.739,
      "end": 1976.007,
      "text": "會很快地把他的資產",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1976.007,
      "end": 1977.542,
      "text": "負債表給壓垮",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1977.542,
      "end": 1979.177,
      "text": "對 那反而像是五大的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1979.177,
      "end": 1980.211,
      "text": "雲廠商跟NVIDIA",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1980.211,
      "end": 1981.212,
      "text": "他反而是這條",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1981.212,
      "end": 1983.314,
      "text": "鏈上面比較有承重能力的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1983.314,
      "end": 1984.849,
      "text": "因為他的資產負債表比較強",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1984.849,
      "end": 1985.683,
      "text": "他的客戶也比較多",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1985.683,
      "end": 1987.952,
      "text": "AI只是他是現在雲業務的一部分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1987.952,
      "end": 1990.021,
      "text": "那囤GPU就算AI需求下降",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1990.021,
      "end": 1991.656,
      "text": "他也還是可以拿回去跑",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1991.656,
      "end": 1993.524,
      "text": "他自己本身的雲端的運算",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1993.524,
      "end": 1994.525,
      "text": "所以他們這些",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1994.525,
      "end": 1996.694,
      "text": "公司反而比較容易做的事情是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1996.694,
      "end": 1998.062,
      "text": "他的估值會重複",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1998.062,
      "end": 1999.263,
      "text": "可是這一次如果說是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 1999.263,
      "end": 2001.666,
      "text": "從債務上這邊爆發的估值重複",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2001.666,
      "end": 2003.901,
      "text": "應該折個三成到五成",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2003.901,
      "end": 2005.636,
      "text": "我覺得也是有概率會發生",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2005.636,
      "end": 2008.539,
      "text": "那有一支要另外單獨拎出來講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2008.539,
      "end": 2009.107,
      "text": "就是Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2009.107,
      "end": 2010.441,
      "text": "因為他是這一輪擴張",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2010.441,
      "end": 2011.876,
      "text": "裡面相對激進的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2011.876,
      "end": 2014.512,
      "text": "他現在還本複息率是48%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2014.512,
      "end": 2015.78,
      "text": "所以他的體質比較接近",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2015.78,
      "end": 2016.881,
      "text": "重資產的地產公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2016.881,
      "end": 2018.983,
      "text": "所以他也是要稍微注意一下的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2018.983,
      "end": 2020.985,
      "text": "那再來就是最上層的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2020.985,
      "end": 2022.086,
      "text": "就是所謂的AI模型公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2022.086,
      "end": 2023.321,
      "text": "就是OpenAI跟Anthropic",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2023.321,
      "end": 2025.59,
      "text": "就是他們的融資是以股權為主",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2025.59,
      "end": 2026.891,
      "text": "還沒有到硬性的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2026.891,
      "end": 2029.06,
      "text": "就是硬性到期的債務的方式融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2029.06,
      "end": 2030.561,
      "text": "如果說他沒有上市",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2030.561,
      "end": 2031.796,
      "text": "反而相對是安全的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2031.796,
      "end": 2033.131,
      "text": "因為Anthropic現在的收入有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2033.131,
      "end": 2034.532,
      "text": "80%是來自企業客戶",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2034.532,
      "end": 2035.8,
      "text": "這些客戶的黏著性比較強",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2035.8,
      "end": 2036.534,
      "text": "收入也比較穩定",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2036.534,
      "end": 2039.17,
      "text": "相比之下OpenAI就比較脆弱",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2039.17,
      "end": 2040.271,
      "text": "那波動性也比較大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2040.271,
      "end": 2041.873,
      "text": "因為他的收入有60%是來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2041.873,
      "end": 2042.64,
      "text": "自個人消費者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2042.64,
      "end": 2043.841,
      "text": "那講不好聽一點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2043.841,
      "end": 2045.143,
      "text": "就是個人消費者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2045.143,
      "end": 2046.544,
      "text": "就是一種另類的牆頭草",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2046.544,
      "end": 2048.479,
      "text": "就是誰好用我就用哪一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2048.479,
      "end": 2050.548,
      "text": "所以再加上他的現金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2050.548,
      "end": 2051.382,
      "text": "消耗率非常高",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2051.382,
      "end": 2051.983,
      "text": "他說在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2051.983,
      "end": 2054.385,
      "text": "2027年之前都會維持在57%左右",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2054.385,
      "end": 2055.787,
      "text": "所以兩個一比",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2055.787,
      "end": 2057.088,
      "text": "你就知道誰比較安全一點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2057.088,
      "end": 2057.722,
      "text": "好 最後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2057.722,
      "end": 2059.824,
      "text": "你覺得現在到了轉折點了嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2059.824,
      "end": 2060.291,
      "text": "我先講嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2060.658,
      "end": 2061.325,
      "text": "我覺得是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2061.325,
      "end": 2063.327,
      "text": "我覺得他黃仁勳雖然看起來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2063.327,
      "end": 2065.196,
      "text": "這個操作有非常多的風險在裡面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2065.196,
      "end": 2066.13,
      "text": "當然不得不說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2066.13,
      "end": 2068.066,
      "text": "他也等於是解救這一群",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2068.066,
      "end": 2069.801,
      "text": "AI公司短期的渴望",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2069.801,
      "end": 2070.701,
      "text": "因為他們現在缺錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2070.701,
      "end": 2071.669,
      "text": "他們需要更多資金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2071.669,
      "end": 2073.938,
      "text": "那傳統方法其實已經都不夠用",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2073.938,
      "end": 2074.872,
      "text": "而且他接下來要",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2074.872,
      "end": 2076.374,
      "text": "借錢只會成本越來越大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2076.374,
      "end": 2078.276,
      "text": "他利息必須付出越來越高的力量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2078.276,
      "end": 2078.81,
      "text": "才有辦法借到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2078.81,
      "end": 2080.011,
      "text": "黃仁勳找這六大巨頭",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2080.011,
      "end": 2081.112,
      "text": "來做這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2081.112,
      "end": 2082.346,
      "text": "我覺得短期會幫到他們",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2082.346,
      "end": 2085.183,
      "text": "所以我覺得雖然我們要注重風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2085.183,
      "end": 2086.651,
      "text": "但我還是會再玩一下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2086.651,
      "end": 2088.686,
      "text": "但只要加速度開始減緩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2088.686,
      "end": 2089.52,
      "text": "我一定會跑一批",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2089.52,
      "end": 2090.288,
      "text": "我一定會先跑",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2090.288,
      "end": 2091.122,
      "text": "我沒有要客氣的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2091.122,
      "end": 2091.289,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2091.289,
      "end": 2092.156,
      "text": "因為我們剛才有講到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2092.156,
      "end": 2093.257,
      "text": "這一次的結構",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2093.257,
      "end": 2094.992,
      "text": "如果未來真的要炸的話會一瞬間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2094.992,
      "end": 2095.66,
      "text": "那個速度會很快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2095.66,
      "end": 2097.395,
      "text": "所以我只要有苗頭不對就開始減",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2097.395,
      "end": 2099.063,
      "text": "Maggie其實把這一次的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2099.063,
      "end": 2100.731,
      "text": "交易的策略講得非常清楚",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2100.731,
      "end": 2102.3,
      "text": "我沒有預料到他會講這麼清楚",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2102.3,
      "end": 2103.935,
      "text": "所以我覺得審慎樂觀吧",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2103.935,
      "end": 2104.802,
      "text": "我會繼續跟他玩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2104.802,
      "end": 2106.103,
      "text": "那有任何的蛛絲馬跡",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2106.103,
      "end": 2107.705,
      "text": "我應該跑得比大家還快啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2107.705,
      "end": 2107.939,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2109.941,
      "end": 2110.608,
      "text": "記得講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2110.608,
      "end": 2111.375,
      "text": "因為他們",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2111.375,
      "end": 2114.445,
      "text": "如果有把那個正循環做起來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2114.445,
      "end": 2116.447,
      "text": "他再往上衝的機率是有的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2116.447,
      "end": 2119.417,
      "text": "他往上衝那個漲幅也會蠻可觀的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2119.417,
      "end": 2120.184,
      "text": "那老實講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2120.184,
      "end": 2122.487,
      "text": "我現在還沒覺得到反轉的那個點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2122.487,
      "end": 2124.555,
      "text": "我覺得短期之內也還不會到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2124.555,
      "end": 2125.423,
      "text": "第一個原因就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2125.423,
      "end": 2126.691,
      "text": "他們的財務長都有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2126.691,
      "end": 2128.126,
      "text": "出來說現在產能不夠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2128.126,
      "end": 2129.76,
      "text": "就是微軟 亞馬遜跟Alphabet",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2129.76,
      "end": 2131.963,
      "text": "這三家公司的財務長都有出來說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2131.963,
      "end": 2132.497,
      "text": "就是我們",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2132.497,
      "end": 2134.665,
      "text": "現在還是供給受限的狀況下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2134.665,
      "end": 2134.832,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2134.832,
      "end": 2135.967,
      "text": "第二個就是他的積壓",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2135.967,
      "end": 2138.069,
      "text": "訂單已經是簽約的現金了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2138.069,
      "end": 2140.505,
      "text": "那四家合計是2.33兆美元",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2140.505,
      "end": 2143.141,
      "text": "單季增量是AWS是1320億",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2143.141,
      "end": 2144.909,
      "text": "Oracle是加了850億",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2144.909,
      "end": 2146.21,
      "text": "Google Cloud是加了510億",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2146.21,
      "end": 2147.345,
      "text": "但是我覺得這個東西還是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2147.345,
      "end": 2148.412,
      "text": "要看所有的品質",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2148.412,
      "end": 2149.981,
      "text": "因為像微軟的商用位履約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2149.981,
      "end": 2152.583,
      "text": "訂單的成長總額是84%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2152.583,
      "end": 2154.785,
      "text": "那排除OpenAI之後只剩25%",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2154.785,
      "end": 2155.987,
      "text": "所以你的每一家公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2155.987,
      "end": 2157.688,
      "text": "你還是要去看它的品質好不好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2157.688,
      "end": 2158.222,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2158.222,
      "end": 2159.323,
      "text": "第三個就是這個東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2159.323,
      "end": 2160.825,
      "text": "是以年紀的瓶頸",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2160.825,
      "end": 2163.528,
      "text": "先進封裝就是現在已經緊張到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2163.528,
      "end": 2164.762,
      "text": "就是臺積電財務長有說嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2164.762,
      "end": 2165.263,
      "text": "就是正在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2165.263,
      "end": 2166.731,
      "text": "甚至限制我的客戶的成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2166.731,
      "end": 2169.5,
      "text": "所以HBM2026年已經完全賣完了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2169.5,
      "end": 2169.901,
      "text": "那你的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2169.901,
      "end": 2171.602,
      "text": "就是我們之前有說過的燃氣渦輪機",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2171.602,
      "end": 2171.969,
      "text": "Warranty",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2171.969,
      "end": 2173.404,
      "text": "這個東西的等候名單是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2173.404,
      "end": 2174.438,
      "text": "等了3到4年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2174.438,
      "end": 2176.44,
      "text": "等於是訂單是排到2028到2029",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2176.44,
      "end": 2179.143,
      "text": "那你的變壓器的交付的年限",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2179.143,
      "end": 2179.744,
      "text": "也是很久？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2179.744,
      "end": 2182.146,
      "text": "那還有就是很多我之前有說的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2182.146,
      "end": 2183.814,
      "text": "就是併網排隊的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2183.814,
      "end": 2185.75,
      "text": "這個年限也是超過5年以上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2185.75,
      "end": 2188.119,
      "text": "所以這些瓶頸解除的時間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2188.119,
      "end": 2189.687,
      "text": "不是以季來計算",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2189.687,
      "end": 2190.788,
      "text": "是以年來計算",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2190.788,
      "end": 2193.224,
      "text": "所以這個供需在物理上很難在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2193.224,
      "end": 2194.692,
      "text": "2026跟2027年反轉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2194.692,
      "end": 2196.36,
      "text": "所以我覺得先短期先不要擔心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2196.36,
      "end": 2198.563,
      "text": "那現在需求其實還是在放大的啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2198.563,
      "end": 2200.097,
      "text": "就是因為Google之前有說嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2200.097,
      "end": 2201.432,
      "text": "就是它每個月Token的處理量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2201.432,
      "end": 2203.167,
      "text": "就是兩年成長了330倍",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2203.167,
      "end": 2205.202,
      "text": "Agentic AI的單次任務的消耗量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2205.202,
      "end": 2206.871,
      "text": "是傳統對話的100到1000倍",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2206.871,
      "end": 2208.673,
      "text": "所以這個需求曲線的這個斜率",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2208.673,
      "end": 2210.141,
      "text": "還是有在變抖不是變緩",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2210.141,
      "end": 2212.009,
      "text": "對 所以目前的狀況下比較像是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2212.009,
      "end": 2214.111,
      "text": "現在這兩個時鐘是不同步的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2214.111,
      "end": 2216.881,
      "text": "因為債務累積是一個線性的過程",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2216.881,
      "end": 2219.25,
      "text": "那技術革命是一個非線性的過程",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2219.25,
      "end": 2220.718,
      "text": "線性的過程的意思是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2220.718,
      "end": 2222.42,
      "text": "你的債務每年就是那樣累積嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2222.42,
      "end": 2223.721,
      "text": "你也知道就是它一直可以",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2223.721,
      "end": 2225.523,
      "text": "可預測有時間表有倒",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2225.523,
      "end": 2227.191,
      "text": "其實有白紙黑字的合約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2227.191,
      "end": 2229.26,
      "text": "對 所以它就是按照時間表來做事",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2229.26,
      "end": 2230.494,
      "text": "那非線性的意思是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2230.494,
      "end": 2232.163,
      "text": "你今天的技術有可能出現了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2232.163,
      "end": 2232.997,
      "text": "哪一個奇異點？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2232.997,
      "end": 2234.632,
      "text": "或者它技術可能會突然加速",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2234.632,
      "end": 2235.733,
      "text": "也有可能突然停滯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.733,
      "end": 2235.967,
      "text": "就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.967,
      "end": 2237.568,
      "text": "它是一個沒有明確時間表的東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2237.568,
      "end": 2238.903,
      "text": "所以危險不會在於說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2238.903,
      "end": 2240.071,
      "text": "就是這個技術會不會成功",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2240.071,
      "end": 2240.471,
      "text": "而是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2240.471,
      "end": 2242.506,
      "text": "今天這兩個時鐘是不同步的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2242.506,
      "end": 2243.808,
      "text": "它會有點像是龜兔出來跑",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2243.808,
      "end": 2246.577,
      "text": "就是你一隻隨時可能睡著的兔子",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2246.577,
      "end": 2248.646,
      "text": "去追一隻永遠不會休息的烏龜",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2248.646,
      "end": 2249.914,
      "text": "就是你不是在賭說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2249.914,
      "end": 2251.782,
      "text": "這隻兔子會不會跑得比烏龜快",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2251.782,
      "end": 2253.384,
      "text": "你在賭它說這一段路上面",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2253.384,
      "end": 2254.151,
      "text": "它會不會突然睡著",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2254.151,
      "end": 2255.253,
      "text": "它的主業很強",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2255.253,
      "end": 2256.687,
      "text": "只是代表說它危機",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2256.687,
      "end": 2258.322,
      "text": "爆發之前的時間會更長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2258.322,
      "end": 2259.19,
      "text": "不代表它不會爆",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2259.19,
      "end": 2260.825,
      "text": "所以我們可以看什麼",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2260.825,
      "end": 2261.392,
      "text": "第一個就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2261.392,
      "end": 2262.66,
      "text": "現在我很在意這個東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2262.66,
      "end": 2264.328,
      "text": "就是現在Token的單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2264.328,
      "end": 2265.229,
      "text": "價下跌的速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2265.229,
      "end": 2266.964,
      "text": "是快於用量成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2266.964,
      "end": 2267.865,
      "text": "我不知道大家有沒有觀察到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2267.865,
      "end": 2269.233,
      "text": "就是企業的Token使用量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2269.233,
      "end": 2271.769,
      "text": "從2025年初到2026年4月",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2271.769,
      "end": 2272.503,
      "text": "成長10倍",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2272.503,
      "end": 2274.105,
      "text": "但是支出只成長了5倍",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2274.105,
      "end": 2274.505,
      "text": "什麼意思",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2274.505,
      "end": 2275.74,
      "text": "就是你的用量爆炸",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2275.74,
      "end": 2277.508,
      "text": "跟你的營收爆炸是在脫鉤的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2277.508,
      "end": 2278.309,
      "text": "那換句話說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2278.309,
      "end": 2278.809,
      "text": "就代表說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2278.809,
      "end": 2280.511,
      "text": "你的單位Token的價格是在跌的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2280.511,
      "end": 2281.512,
      "text": "跌的可兇了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2281.512,
      "end": 2281.646,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2281.646,
      "end": 2283.447,
      "text": "那第二個就是看積壓訂單的品質",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2283.447,
      "end": 2284.615,
      "text": "不是規模 剛前面有講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2284.615,
      "end": 2285.449,
      "text": "然後第三個就是看",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2285.449,
      "end": 2286.851,
      "text": "供給延誤造成的時間差",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2286.851,
      "end": 2288.052,
      "text": "因為現在有報導指出",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2288.052,
      "end": 2290.121,
      "text": "就是2026年美國規劃數據中心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2290.121,
      "end": 2292.289,
      "text": "有1⅓到1⅔是延誤或取消的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2292.289,
      "end": 2294.592,
      "text": "它預計規劃容量是12到16GW",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2294.592,
      "end": 2295.993,
      "text": "實際在建的只有5GW",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2295.993,
      "end": 2297.628,
      "text": "所以延遲的原因主要是因為",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2297.628,
      "end": 2298.362,
      "text": "電力跟供應鏈？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2298.362,
      "end": 2298.863,
      "text": "不是需求",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2298.863,
      "end": 2300.064,
      "text": "所以現在還是供不應",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2300.064,
      "end": 2301.365,
      "text": "求的證據擺在這",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2301.365,
      "end": 2302.366,
      "text": "但你要想一個問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2302.366,
      "end": 2304.935,
      "text": "如果說它把產能同時推遲到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2304.935,
      "end": 2306.37,
      "text": "2027到2028年間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2306.37,
      "end": 2307.271,
      "text": "如果延誤的產能",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2307.271,
      "end": 2309.24,
      "text": "同時在2027年集中上線",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2309.24,
      "end": 2310.207,
      "text": "那那個時候單價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2310.207,
      "end": 2312.376,
      "text": "因為價格在已經跌了一大截",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2312.376,
      "end": 2314.011,
      "text": "然後再加上產能一次到位",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2314.011,
      "end": 2315.012,
      "text": "跌價低單價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2315.012,
      "end": 2316.414,
      "text": "這是一個不好的組合",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2316.414,
      "end": 2317.315,
      "text": "我覺得可以用一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2317.315,
      "end": 2318.482,
      "text": "簡單的分類去分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2318.482,
      "end": 2321.018,
      "text": "就是這是在做債務評級的分類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2321.018,
      "end": 2322.186,
      "text": "第一類就是所謂的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2322.186,
      "end": 2324.322,
      "text": "你的薪水本金加上利息都付得起",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2324.322,
      "end": 2325.322,
      "text": "那第二類就是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2325.322,
      "end": 2327.091,
      "text": "你只付得起利息本金會一直拖",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2327.091,
      "end": 2327.958,
      "text": "然後第三類就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2327.958,
      "end": 2329.527,
      "text": "你連利息都還要再借錢來繳",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2329.527,
      "end": 2331.095,
      "text": "這就是我們說的龐氏騙局",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2331.095,
      "end": 2332.263,
      "text": "第二類的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2332.263,
      "end": 2334.065,
      "text": "平常看起來會跟第一類的人一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2334.065,
      "end": 2335.333,
      "text": "差別就是他在說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2335.333,
      "end": 2335.866,
      "text": "就是哪一天",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2335.866,
      "end": 2337.802,
      "text": "銀行會不會不再和你續約？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2337.802,
      "end": 2339.103,
      "text": "所以銀行會不會續約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2339.103,
      "end": 2341.072,
      "text": "跟你房子好不好的關係不大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2341.072,
      "end": 2343.574,
      "text": "跟當時的市場的景氣有關",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2343.574,
      "end": 2345.042,
      "text": "這就是為什麼剛說就是主業很強",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2345.042,
      "end": 2345.876,
      "text": "不等於他不會出事",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2345.876,
      "end": 2347.445,
      "text": "那我們一樣把加速度的概念",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2347.445,
      "end": 2348.245,
      "text": "拿過來這邊看",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2348.245,
      "end": 2348.779,
      "text": "就是你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2348.779,
      "end": 2350.781,
      "text": "需求成長的加速度開始下滑",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2350.781,
      "end": 2352.583,
      "text": "那第一類就有可能會變成第二類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2352.583,
      "end": 2354.151,
      "text": "那你的加速度跌破成0",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2354.151,
      "end": 2355.72,
      "text": "也就是說你的成長停滯了之後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2355.72,
      "end": 2356.987,
      "text": "就會完全變成第二類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2356.987,
      "end": 2358.589,
      "text": "而且很難靠自己再走回去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2358.589,
      "end": 2360.191,
      "text": "所以盯加速度的重點在於說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2360.191,
      "end": 2361.792,
      "text": "你要盯這家公司什麼時候衝",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2361.792,
      "end": 2363.928,
      "text": "會從就是不用看銀行臉色",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2363.928,
      "end": 2365.629,
      "text": "變成你今天要看銀行臉色的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2365.629,
      "end": 2366.63,
      "text": "因為像是Google跟Amazon",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2366.63,
      "end": 2368.132,
      "text": "他們現在已經是現金流轉付了嘛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2368.132,
      "end": 2370.0,
      "text": "就是剛跨進第二類的門檻",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2370.0,
      "end": 2371.802,
      "text": "那微軟跟Meta現在還在第一類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2371.802,
      "end": 2373.304,
      "text": "那資本開支不控制",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2373.304,
      "end": 2374.405,
      "text": "可能也會去第二類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2374.405,
      "end": 2376.307,
      "text": "那Oracle是早就已經在第二類",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2376.307,
      "end": 2378.109,
      "text": "那為什麼剛剛就像講的美債",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2378.109,
      "end": 2379.176,
      "text": "看起來像第三電",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2379.643,
      "end": 2382.046,
      "text": "這是一個世界上最大的社會實驗",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2383.08,
      "end": 2384.749,
      "text": "然後好 我直接做最後總結",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2384.749,
      "end": 2387.251,
      "text": "就是你不要把股票的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2387.251,
      "end": 2388.919,
      "text": "風險跟債券的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2388.919,
      "end": 2390.02,
      "text": "把它混為一談",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2390.02,
      "end": 2392.022,
      "text": "就是因為股東今天問的東西是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2392.022,
      "end": 2393.591,
      "text": "你的AI這個技術有沒有價值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2393.591,
      "end": 2394.625,
      "text": "你未來可以賺多少錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2394.625,
      "end": 2395.893,
      "text": "那你的債主問的是說",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2395.893,
      "end": 2396.961,
      "text": "我今天這幾千億",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2396.961,
      "end": 2398.429,
      "text": "砸下去的固定資產",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2398.429,
      "end": 2399.63,
      "text": "未來可以產生多少現金流",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2399.63,
      "end": 2401.832,
      "text": "它夠不夠付我資本的這些成本",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2401.832,
      "end": 2402.967,
      "text": "所以兩個其實是完全",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2402.967,
      "end": 2403.601,
      "text": "不一樣的問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2403.601,
      "end": 2404.702,
      "text": "那過去兩年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2404.702,
      "end": 2406.303,
      "text": "這些股價只回答第一個問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2406.303,
      "end": 2407.271,
      "text": "就只回答一個啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2407.271,
      "end": 2407.905,
      "text": "對 所以就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2407.905,
      "end": 2410.641,
      "text": "AI的長期風險是需求量不夠",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2410.641,
      "end": 2412.109,
      "text": "但是目前這個東西其實我不擔心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2412.109,
      "end": 2412.91,
      "text": "因為需求期限",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2412.91,
      "end": 2414.845,
      "text": "我們剛剛有說它還在繼續變動",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2414.845,
      "end": 2416.447,
      "text": "那它的滲透率其實也還在上升",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2416.447,
      "end": 2417.414,
      "text": "那技術也還在進步",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2417.414,
      "end": 2418.549,
      "text": "所以這個東西我先不擔心",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2418.549,
      "end": 2419.984,
      "text": "那短中期累積的風險是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2419.984,
      "end": 2421.185,
      "text": "你的資本開支的速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2421.185,
      "end": 2423.02,
      "text": "會超過你真實現金流產生的速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2423.02,
      "end": 2424.588,
      "text": "那這個問題其實也要好幾年",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2424.588,
      "end": 2425.189,
      "text": "才會有答案",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2425.189,
      "end": 2426.824,
      "text": "然後可是你資本開支的速度",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2426.824,
      "end": 2427.391,
      "text": "有沒有超過你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2427.391,
      "end": 2428.492,
      "text": "真實現金流產生的速度？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2428.492,
      "end": 2428.926,
      "text": "這個東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2428.926,
      "end": 2430.528,
      "text": "其實每一季財報都會給答案",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2430.528,
      "end": 2431.629,
      "text": "所以財報要看",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2431.629,
      "end": 2432.863,
      "text": "那我們現在其實看到就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2432.863,
      "end": 2434.265,
      "text": "現在消耗的這個時間",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2434.265,
      "end": 2435.032,
      "text": "節點還沒有到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2435.032,
      "end": 2437.802,
      "text": "但是融資開始往下滲透跟蔓延的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2437.802,
      "end": 2439.136,
      "text": "這件事情已經開始發生了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2439.136,
      "end": 2440.237,
      "text": "確實已經開始發生了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2440.237,
      "end": 2441.872,
      "text": "那從9%到32%這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2441.872,
      "end": 2442.74,
      "text": "是一定發生的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2442.74,
      "end": 2444.442,
      "text": "它不會因為說今天需求很好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2444.442,
      "end": 2446.544,
      "text": "就把我借來的錢全部還給銀行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2446.544,
      "end": 2447.144,
      "text": "這不合理",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2447.144,
      "end": 2448.646,
      "text": "因為這些公司的運作邏輯不是會",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2448.646,
      "end": 2449.346,
      "text": "我要去還錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2449.346,
      "end": 2450.247,
      "text": "而是我要去想著",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2450.247,
      "end": 2451.882,
      "text": "我怎麼借更多錢來把它錢省錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2451.882,
      "end": 2453.484,
      "text": "所以這個比例大概率是不會",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2453.484,
      "end": 2454.185,
      "text": "壓回去的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2454.185,
      "end": 2456.287,
      "text": "那大部分的問題其實都集中在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2456.287,
      "end": 2458.122,
      "text": "源頭的OpenAI跟Anthropic身上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2458.122,
      "end": 2459.79,
      "text": "就是你下一個爆發的新需求",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2459.79,
      "end": 2460.591,
      "text": "到底什麼時候出現",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2460.591,
      "end": 2461.492,
      "text": "我相信一定會有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2461.492,
      "end": 2462.76,
      "text": "但是關鍵是那個時間點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2462.76,
      "end": 2463.294,
      "text": "要撐得過去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2463.294,
      "end": 2463.461,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2463.461,
      "end": 2465.663,
      "text": "它不能比就是全部集中在",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2465.663,
      "end": 2466.964,
      "text": "2027年完全上線",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2466.964,
      "end": 2468.165,
      "text": "一起集中上線的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2468.165,
      "end": 2470.401,
      "text": "之後它才兌現說就是有需求",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2470.401,
      "end": 2471.435,
      "text": "這件事情就不太ok",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2471.435,
      "end": 2472.87,
      "text": "所以關鍵是那個時間點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2472.87,
      "end": 2473.103,
      "text": "所以",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2473.103,
      "end": 2474.872,
      "text": "如果今天走了一個最壞的狀況",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2474.872,
      "end": 2475.94,
      "text": "我覺得劇本大概是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2475.94,
      "end": 2478.008,
      "text": "就是最前面的融資條件",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2478.008,
      "end": 2478.709,
      "text": "開始出現裂縫",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2478.709,
      "end": 2479.577,
      "text": "就是你的融資",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2479.577,
      "end": 2480.878,
      "text": "某一輪的估值上不去了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2480.878,
      "end": 2481.946,
      "text": "然後接著是某型公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2481.946,
      "end": 2483.147,
      "text": "還會開始保留現金",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2483.147,
      "end": 2484.882,
      "text": "然後會縮減對算力的承諾",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2484.882,
      "end": 2486.851,
      "text": "那這等於是你的合約會違約",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2486.851,
      "end": 2488.586,
      "text": "那你的性質有點像是房地產泡沫",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2488.586,
      "end": 2490.02,
      "text": "那時候的第一批爛尾樓出現了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2490.02,
      "end": 2491.989,
      "text": "那你的違約就會打擊到你的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2491.989,
      "end": 2493.724,
      "text": "高槓杆的那些惡房東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2493.724,
      "end": 2495.693,
      "text": "那買GPU和出租GPU的這些",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2495.693,
      "end": 2497.027,
      "text": "利差會開始",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2497.027,
      "end": 2497.428,
      "text": "怎麼講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2497.428,
      "end": 2498.028,
      "text": "支不抵債",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2498.028,
      "end": 2498.429,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2498.429,
      "end": 2499.763,
      "text": "那最後會是整個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2499.763,
      "end": 2502.666,
      "text": "AI體系的信用都崩壞 凍結",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2502.666,
      "end": 2502.967,
      "text": "所以",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2502.967,
      "end": 2505.002,
      "text": "你的未履約的義務會被重新定價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2505.002,
      "end": 2506.737,
      "text": "成就是交易的風險",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2506.737,
      "end": 2508.072,
      "text": "那以GPU擔保的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2508.072,
      "end": 2510.241,
      "text": "這些票券是沒有辦法展期的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2510.241,
      "end": 2511.542,
      "text": "那你的上游的供應鏈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2511.542,
      "end": 2512.977,
      "text": "有可能會就開始大面積",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2512.977,
      "end": 2514.178,
      "text": "以資產會減值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2514.178,
      "end": 2515.145,
      "text": "所以這個地方有一個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2515.145,
      "end": 2516.48,
      "text": "跟房地產最大的不同",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2516.48,
      "end": 2518.148,
      "text": "就是你的技術其實有在進步的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2518.148,
      "end": 2519.283,
      "text": "你滲透率其實有在上升",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2519.283,
      "end": 2520.451,
      "text": "你的需求也是有在成長",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2520.451,
      "end": 2522.052,
      "text": "只是現在的基礎建設",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2522.052,
      "end": 2524.121,
      "text": "的時間配置沒配好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2524.121,
      "end": 2524.989,
      "text": "所以到最後",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2524.989,
      "end": 2527.191,
      "text": "有可能反而那些資本最雄厚的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2527.191,
      "end": 2529.36,
      "text": "在這一輪投入最謹慎的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2529.36,
      "end": 2531.962,
      "text": "那你的風險場口最小的參與者",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2531.962,
      "end": 2535.432,
      "text": "有機會用極低的價格買下來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2535.432,
      "end": 2537.101,
      "text": "那些被爛尾的樓",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2537.101,
      "end": 2539.904,
      "text": "Apple就進進來看著你們借錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2539.904,
      "end": 2540.271,
      "text": "你要記得",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2540.271,
      "end": 2541.705,
      "text": "歷史上的每一次泡沫都是這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2541.705,
      "end": 2542.94,
      "text": "就是你泡沫破掉的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2542.94,
      "end": 2544.141,
      "text": "這些錢沒有消失",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2544.141,
      "end": 2545.943,
      "text": "只是換了一個人拿這些錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2545.943,
      "end": 2549.547,
      "text": "通常換到那個人在很狂熱的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2549.547,
      "end": 2551.482,
      "text": "是很理智在算報酬率的人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2551.482,
      "end": 2552.883,
      "text": "好棒棒BRK",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2553.45,
      "end": 2553.851,
      "text": "好啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2553.851,
      "end": 2555.586,
      "text": "耶我終於結束啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2556.32,
      "end": 2556.754,
      "text": "帥",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2556.754,
      "end": 2558.122,
      "text": "有要問問題沒",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2558.122,
      "end": 2558.989,
      "text": "有人問啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2558.989,
      "end": 2561.492,
      "text": "舉手二手GPU沒有定價模型嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2561.492,
      "end": 2562.66,
      "text": "不是二手飛機啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2562.66,
      "end": 2564.261,
      "text": "到時候怎麼定義二手價值",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2564.261,
      "end": 2565.896,
      "text": "應該會是幾何定價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2565.896,
      "end": 2568.065,
      "text": "就是用撮合的方式定價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2568.065,
      "end": 2569.5,
      "text": "有期貨就會有定價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2569.5,
      "end": 2570.034,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2570.834,
      "end": 2572.036,
      "text": "事情都是一樣的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2572.036,
      "end": 2573.971,
      "text": "這樣看起來絕對比8年跟",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2573.971,
      "end": 2574.772,
      "text": "00年是一樣的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2574.772,
      "end": 2575.706,
      "text": "大家只是把那",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2575.706,
      "end": 2577.107,
      "text": "上次兩次教訓學起來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2577.107,
      "end": 2578.842,
      "text": "兩個融在一起再玩一次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2578.842,
      "end": 2579.276,
      "text": "對啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2579.276,
      "end": 2580.444,
      "text": "應該就是兩次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2580.444,
      "end": 2582.813,
      "text": "兩個事件的問題點再發生一次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2582.813,
      "end": 2583.314,
      "text": "融在一起",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2583.314,
      "end": 2584.415,
      "text": "告訴你這次不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2584.415,
      "end": 2585.549,
      "text": "對確實不一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2585.549,
      "end": 2586.583,
      "text": "對這樣特別辣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2586.583,
      "end": 2588.152,
      "text": "兩個然後尬作會這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2588.152,
      "end": 2589.687,
      "text": "然後把兩邊的好的不",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2589.687,
      "end": 2590.487,
      "text": "學學壞的這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2590.988,
      "end": 2591.889,
      "text": "對全部學壞的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2591.889,
      "end": 2593.524,
      "text": "我先講一下我自己的論點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2593.524,
      "end": 2594.725,
      "text": "包含那個美債啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2594.725,
      "end": 2596.393,
      "text": "其實很早之前我們就有探討過",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2596.393,
      "end": 2597.361,
      "text": "美債是不是一行詩篇",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2597.361,
      "end": 2598.862,
      "text": "但你其實仔細想想",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2598.862,
      "end": 2600.13,
      "text": "它就是一個資金的迴圈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2600.13,
      "end": 2601.098,
      "text": "就是這個迴圈要轉動",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2601.098,
      "end": 2601.799,
      "text": "就跟Maggy講的一樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2601.799,
      "end": 2602.933,
      "text": "你要找到新的球",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2602.933,
      "end": 2603.901,
      "text": "或是說真的有人買單",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2603.901,
      "end": 2605.603,
      "text": "其實有人買單就代表有繞出去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2605.603,
      "end": 2606.737,
      "text": "就是你要讓這個",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2606.737,
      "end": 2608.172,
      "text": "你不要只是一個內循環",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2608.172,
      "end": 2609.54,
      "text": "你的內循環有在接收一點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2609.54,
      "end": 2610.808,
      "text": "外面的力量進來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2610.808,
      "end": 2611.642,
      "text": "就是這個圈圈",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2611.642,
      "end": 2613.277,
      "text": "這個球是有互相拋來拋去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2613.277,
      "end": 2614.745,
      "text": "然後不能只在同一小旋環",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2614.745,
      "end": 2616.48,
      "text": "要把這球拋出去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2616.48,
      "end": 2616.68,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2616.68,
      "end": 2618.282,
      "text": "美國人就是最會拋來拋去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2618.282,
      "end": 2618.515,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2618.515,
      "end": 2619.917,
      "text": "那事實也證明",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2619.917,
      "end": 2621.185,
      "text": "當美國人拋不動的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2621.185,
      "end": 2622.286,
      "text": "他就會找別人抱",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2622.286,
      "end": 2624.021,
      "text": "找別人去抱別人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2624.021,
      "end": 2625.956,
      "text": "要抱的時候他就會丟給某一個人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2625.956,
      "end": 2627.992,
      "text": "那現在看起來美債也是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2627.992,
      "end": 2629.193,
      "text": "比較壓力比較有？",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2629.193,
      "end": 2630.728,
      "text": "那誰可以被犧牲",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2630.728,
      "end": 2631.929,
      "text": "就是一個好人的議題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2631.929,
      "end": 2633.731,
      "text": "因為我覺得這也沒有那麼單純啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2633.731,
      "end": 2635.666,
      "text": "就是說都是槓桿都是債務",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2635.666,
      "end": 2638.435,
      "text": "那誰會被犧牲是可以被考量的點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2638.435,
      "end": 2640.004,
      "text": "所以我覺得這次事件",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2640.004,
      "end": 2641.372,
      "text": "我自己判斷的結尾",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2641.372,
      "end": 2642.339,
      "text": "也會是這樣的點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2642.339,
      "end": 2643.641,
      "text": "就是看犧牲誰",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2643.641,
      "end": 2644.508,
      "text": "然後範圍多大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2644.508,
      "end": 2644.641,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2644.641,
      "end": 2645.409,
      "text": "那我覺得這些東西",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2645.409,
      "end": 2646.977,
      "text": "在過程當中都會有蛛絲馬跡",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2646.977,
      "end": 2648.045,
      "text": "只是那個時機點還沒到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2648.045,
      "end": 2648.312,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2648.312,
      "end": 2649.646,
      "text": "但是我也要講就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2649.646,
      "end": 2651.448,
      "text": "我們明明現在講出來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2651.448,
      "end": 2653.484,
      "text": "就是因為我希望他對這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2653.484,
      "end": 2654.985,
      "text": "對你們而言是個灰犀牛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2654.985,
      "end": 2655.953,
      "text": "不是個黑天鵝",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2655.953,
      "end": 2657.388,
      "text": "如果你們知道他是個灰犀牛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2657.388,
      "end": 2658.222,
      "text": "就是你知道他",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2658.222,
      "end": 2659.49,
      "text": "總有一天會發生這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2659.49,
      "end": 2660.424,
      "text": "只是你不知道什麼時候發生",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2660.424,
      "end": 2661.592,
      "text": "那你就可以先做好準備",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2661.592,
      "end": 2663.56,
      "text": "有人問灰犀牛跟黑天鵝差別在哪",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2663.56,
      "end": 2665.996,
      "text": "黑天鵝就是你完全突如其來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2665.996,
      "end": 2667.564,
      "text": "意料之外發生的事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2667.564,
      "end": 2668.732,
      "text": "但如果這件是灰犀牛",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2668.732,
      "end": 2670.167,
      "text": "就是你知道他存在在哪",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2670.167,
      "end": 2670.968,
      "text": "只是你不知道他什麼時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2670.968,
      "end": 2671.668,
      "text": "朝你衝過來",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2671.668,
      "end": 2673.437,
      "text": "我覺得這就是套用回投資的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2673.437,
      "end": 2674.004,
      "text": "那個邏輯啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2674.004,
      "end": 2675.205,
      "text": "就是說在這個情況下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2675.205,
      "end": 2677.207,
      "text": "你真的就是半上車半不上",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2677.207,
      "end": 2678.042,
      "text": "除非你的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2678.042,
      "end": 2678.942,
      "text": "你投入的資金真的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2678.942,
      "end": 2680.01,
      "text": "太龐大到會影響",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2680.01,
      "end": 2681.345,
      "text": "那你可能上的比例就要再考量",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2681.345,
      "end": 2682.379,
      "text": "因為你看像巴菲特的邏輯",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2682.379,
      "end": 2684.148,
      "text": "就是因為他現金放在那邊也沒差",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2684.148,
      "end": 2684.848,
      "text": "那就放",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2684.848,
      "end": 2686.517,
      "text": "但是如果你這個成長對你來講",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2686.517,
      "end": 2688.152,
      "text": "還是有蹭的必要還是要",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2688.152,
      "end": 2688.385,
      "text": "對呀",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2688.385,
      "end": 2689.52,
      "text": "不能完全下降",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2689.52,
      "end": 2689.92,
      "text": "對呀",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2689.92,
      "end": 2691.321,
      "text": "我覺得這個是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2692.189,
      "end": 2693.123,
      "text": "很好的議題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2693.123,
      "end": 2695.192,
      "text": "而且坦白講啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2695.192,
      "end": 2695.926,
      "text": "看他們這樣搞",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2695.926,
      "end": 2697.327,
      "text": "真沒有不報的理由啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2697.327,
      "end": 2697.961,
      "text": "對呀",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2697.961,
      "end": 2699.029,
      "text": "然後我再套用",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2699.029,
      "end": 2700.33,
      "text": "他還出來主揪",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2700.33,
      "end": 2701.665,
      "text": "這你覺得真的是EU北北",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2702.7,
      "end": 2704.535,
      "text": "我給大家一個數字啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2704.535,
      "end": 2705.502,
      "text": "就是我剛才",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2705.502,
      "end": 2706.87,
      "text": "之所以一直用電腦就這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2706.87,
      "end": 2708.405,
      "text": "我查了五大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2709.006,
      "end": 2710.407,
      "text": "就是前五大巨頭",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2710.407,
      "end": 2711.642,
      "text": "前七大前八大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2711.642,
      "end": 2713.61,
      "text": "所有我想得到的四個英文字母",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2713.61,
      "end": 2714.678,
      "text": "能抽出來的公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2715.345,
      "end": 2717.347,
      "text": "過去三年真的沒有人買股票啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2717.347,
      "end": 2719.249,
      "text": "公司內部人沒有買股票",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2719.249,
      "end": 2720.084,
      "text": "只有馬斯克",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2720.084,
      "end": 2721.952,
      "text": "象徵意義的帶著手衝了一次",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2722.419,
      "end": 2723.854,
      "text": "有的他買蠻多的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2723.854,
      "end": 2724.688,
      "text": "有的特斯拉",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2725.155,
      "end": 2725.956,
      "text": "其他沒有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2726.423,
      "end": 2727.591,
      "text": "對他那個象徵意義比較大",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2727.591,
      "end": 2728.325,
      "text": "對還有一堆",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2728.325,
      "end": 2729.626,
      "text": "行銷費行銷費",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2729.626,
      "end": 2731.628,
      "text": "還有一堆臺積電的股東",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2731.628,
      "end": 2733.731,
      "text": "不知道為什麼要十萬十萬臺幣買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2734.665,
      "end": 2735.365,
      "text": "我不懂",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2735.899,
      "end": 2736.7,
      "text": "有什麼毛病",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2737.167,
      "end": 2739.703,
      "text": "這中高階管理層他投月薪嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2739.703,
      "end": 2741.638,
      "text": "你知道那個報表超長的你知道嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2742.606,
      "end": 2743.44,
      "text": "除此之外",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2743.44,
      "end": 2744.742,
      "text": "所有管理層沒有人在買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2744.742,
      "end": 2745.576,
      "text": "全部是賣股票",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2746.009,
      "end": 2747.644,
      "text": "Google Microsoft Amazon",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2747.644,
      "end": 2749.246,
      "text": "我那時候跟Jon一起查",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2749.246,
      "end": 2751.081,
      "text": "三年內沒有人買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2751.081,
      "end": 2752.449,
      "text": "只要是大科技的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2752.449,
      "end": 2754.618,
      "text": "你如果是傳統股可能還有一點",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2755.085,
      "end": 2756.753,
      "text": "比如說可能迪士尼可能還有人買",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2756.753,
      "end": 2758.856,
      "text": "但是這些大科技真的一點都沒有",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2758.856,
      "end": 2761.391,
      "text": "但是你如果說要重倉可以想一下",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2761.391,
      "end": 2762.459,
      "text": "還不是時候啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2762.459,
      "end": 2764.561,
      "text": "除非你功課做得很足啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2764.561,
      "end": 2765.929,
      "text": "你覺得這就是你的戰略",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2765.929,
      "end": 2766.43,
      "text": "你就是",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2767.064,
      "end": 2768.599,
      "text": "fuck所有AI公司",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2768.599,
      "end": 2770.834,
      "text": "那也是沒有不行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2771.368,
      "end": 2773.137,
      "text": "我覺得不適宜一個計策啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2773.137,
      "end": 2773.837,
      "text": "我覺得就這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2773.837,
      "end": 2776.006,
      "text": "你有你的策略就去執行",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2776.006,
      "end": 2776.607,
      "text": "對不對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2776.607,
      "end": 2777.975,
      "text": "不論Maggie多專業",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2777.975,
      "end": 2778.809,
      "text": "Eric多厲害",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2778.809,
      "end": 2780.711,
      "text": "你有你的想法你就去做",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2781.245,
      "end": 2782.679,
      "text": "你最後賺到錢就好了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2782.679,
      "end": 2784.014,
      "text": "你不用跟別人比",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2784.014,
      "end": 2785.449,
      "text": "最怕就是要比",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2786.316,
      "end": 2789.52,
      "text": "請歡迎收聽我們的今朝悠遊節",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2789.987,
      "end": 2791.121,
      "text": "其實這個不用比",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2791.121,
      "end": 2792.489,
      "text": "我反而覺得",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2792.489,
      "end": 2794.224,
      "text": "你有一個自己很篤定的看法",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2794.224,
      "end": 2795.159,
      "text": "然後你執行了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2795.159,
      "end": 2796.059,
      "text": "你賺到錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2796.059,
      "end": 2796.96,
      "text": "那真的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2796.96,
      "end": 2798.162,
      "text": "舒服",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2798.162,
      "end": 2799.163,
      "text": "自己感覺是最好的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2799.163,
      "end": 2799.429,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2799.429,
      "end": 2801.665,
      "text": "我個人的跟單經驗都不好啦",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2802.266,
      "end": 2803.967,
      "text": "因為哪怕我跟下去",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2803.967,
      "end": 2805.068,
      "text": "他真的漲上去了",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2805.068,
      "end": 2806.87,
      "text": "那我對他這間公司這個標界",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2806.87,
      "end": 2808.272,
      "text": "只是量不足",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2808.272,
      "end": 2810.107,
      "text": "那最後他正在漲",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2810.107,
      "end": 2811.141,
      "text": "我想說是放著",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2811.542,
      "end": 2812.543,
      "text": "什麼時候買不知道",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2813.01,
      "end": 2813.944,
      "text": "等到注意到的時候",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2813.944,
      "end": 2814.945,
      "text": "他都是跌回成本價",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2814.945,
      "end": 2815.813,
      "text": "或是開始賠錢",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2815.813,
      "end": 2816.647,
      "text": "我才注意到",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2816.647,
      "end": 2818.649,
      "text": "或是才想要開始要處理他",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2818.649,
      "end": 2819.983,
      "text": "所以我跟單經驗不好",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2819.983,
      "end": 2820.684,
      "text": "是來自於這樣",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2821.185,
      "end": 2822.719,
      "text": "所以我如果沒有做過功課",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2822.719,
      "end": 2823.387,
      "text": "我不懂的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2823.987,
      "end": 2824.755,
      "text": "都會有問題",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2824.755,
      "end": 2825.923,
      "text": "但自己做功課就爽",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2825.923,
      "end": 2826.123,
      "text": "對",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2826.123,
      "end": 2827.224,
      "text": "所以我後來就是一律不更",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2827.224,
      "end": 2829.226,
      "text": "但是你們覺得有研究",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2829.226,
      "end": 2831.128,
      "text": "會報在哪裡這件事情重要嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2831.128,
      "end": 2831.929,
      "text": "應該不重要",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2831.929,
      "end": 2832.596,
      "text": "重要啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2832.596,
      "end": 2833.864,
      "text": "我這個研究是指",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2833.864,
      "end": 2835.365,
      "text": "就是Maggie這個研究OK",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2835.365,
      "end": 2836.433,
      "text": "但我是說很在意",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2836.433,
      "end": 2837.768,
      "text": "或是說很關注",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2837.768,
      "end": 2838.836,
      "text": "報在哪這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.836,
      "end": 2839.937,
      "text": "就是說你要追蹤",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2839.937,
      "end": 2840.404,
      "text": "這件事情",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2840.404,
      "end": 2841.738,
      "text": "你覺得重要嗎",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2841.738,
      "end": 2843.373,
      "text": "我覺得我們專業投資人",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2843.373,
      "end": 2844.174,
      "text": "一定是重要的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2844.908,
      "end": 2845.309,
      "text": "對啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2845.309,
      "end": 2847.544,
      "text": "我們的獲利不就是來自於",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2847.544,
      "end": 2849.012,
      "text": "比別人更快反應",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2849.012,
      "end": 2851.782,
      "text": "然後賺到更多中間的波動",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2851.782,
      "end": 2852.95,
      "text": "波動差吧",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2852.95,
      "end": 2853.951,
      "text": "不管做空還做多",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2853.951,
      "end": 2856.62,
      "text": "所以這對我們一定是重要的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2856.62,
      "end": 2858.088,
      "text": "一般人可能就",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2858.689,
      "end": 2860.824,
      "text": "不一定要這麼近",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2861.391,
      "end": 2863.427,
      "text": "我會覺得有答案給我看的地方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2863.427,
      "end": 2864.361,
      "text": "我就想看啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2864.361,
      "end": 2864.962,
      "text": "對啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2864.962,
      "end": 2866.53,
      "text": "至少我們可以死定的那個地方",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2867.431,
      "end": 2868.532,
      "text": "就是每一次財報",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2868.532,
      "end": 2869.433,
      "text": "我會想嘴啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2869.433,
      "end": 2872.636,
      "text": "那我還是畫四百五嘴財經動向",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2872.636,
      "end": 2874.905,
      "text": "蠻畫幻的",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2876.073,
      "end": 2876.506,
      "text": "對啊",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2877.407,
      "end": 2879.209,
      "text": "你們這麼熱情就來幫你",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2879.209,
      "end": 2879.91,
      "text": "得分",
      "source": "source_caption"
    },
    {
      "start": 2879.91,
      "end": 2880.344,
      "text": "好厲害",
      "source": "source_caption"
    }
  ],
  "transcript_selection": {
    "schema": "videonote.transcript_selection.v1",
    "status": "SELECTED",
    "requested_language": "zh",
    "duration": 2891.302313,
    "reference_path": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260902_155100__AI產業鏈大家互相欠錢......這個結構有多脆弱_AI_CC字幕/reference_subtitle.vtt",
    "reference_kind": "manual",
    "reference_language": "zh-TW",
    "selected_source": "youtube_manual",
    "decision_reason": "source_timing_retained",
    "whisper_rejected": false,
    "source_profile": {
      "segment_count": 1958,
      "multilingual": false,
      "first_start": 16.249,
      "final_end": 2880.344,
      "duration_coverage": 0.99621,
      "maximum_gap_seconds": 60.227,
      "inverted_count": 0,
      "language": {
        "requested": "zh",
        "matched": true,
        "latin": 666,
        "han": 16873,
        "kana": 0,
        "hangul": 0
      },
      "hallucination_region_count": 0,
      "hallucination_regions": [],
      "usable_full": false,
      "usable_partial": true
    },
    "whisper_profile": {
      "segment_count": 1803,
      "multilingual": false,
      "first_start": 0.0,
      "final_end": 2880.74,
      "duration_coverage": 0.996347,
      "maximum_gap_seconds": 39.52,
      "inverted_count": 0,
      "language": {
        "requested": "zh",
        "matched": true,
        "latin": 692,
        "han": 17064,
        "kana": 0,
        "hangul": 0
      },
      "hallucination_region_count": 0,
      "hallucination_regions": [],
      "usable_full": true,
      "usable_partial": true
    },
    "comparison": {
      "window_seconds": 30.0,
      "compared_window_count": 96,
      "median_score": 0.7057,
      "divergent_window_count": 3,
      "divergent_ratio": 0.0312,
      "divergent_windows": [
        {
          "start": 450.0,
          "end": 480.0,
          "score": 0.3251,
          "sequence_similarity": 0.2747,
          "token_f1": 0.4186,
          "divergent": true
        },
        {
          "start": 1590.0,
          "end": 1620.0,
          "score": 0.1466,
          "sequence_similarity": 0.1013,
          "token_f1": 0.2308,
          "divergent": true
        },
        {
          "start": 2880.0,
          "end": 2891.302,
          "score": 0.4444,
          "sequence_similarity": 0.4444,
          "token_f1": 0.4444,
          "divergent": true
        }
      ]
    },
    "timestamp_alignment": {
      "applied": false,
      "estimated_offset_seconds": 0.0,
      "matched_segment_count": 0,
      "match_scores": []
    },
    "caption_timing_repair": {
      "method": "monotonic_multi_anchor_piecewise_interpolation",
      "applied": false,
      "anchor_count": 0,
      "anchors": [],
      "source_block_count": 219,
      "whisper_block_count": 219,
      "matched_block_count": 100,
      "case_normalization": {
        "applied": false,
        "changed_segment_count": 0
      },
      "source_text_preserved": true,
      "reason": "source_timing_retained"
    },
    "filled_source_profile": {
      "segment_count": 150,
      "multilingual": false,
      "first_start": 16.249,
      "final_end": 2880.344,
      "duration_coverage": 0.99621,
      "maximum_gap_seconds": 16.249,
      "inverted_count": 0,
      "language": {
        "requested": "zh",
        "matched": true,
        "latin": 666,
        "han": 16873,
        "kana": 0,
        "hangul": 0
      },
      "hallucination_region_count": 0,
      "hallucination_regions": [],
      "usable_full": true,
      "usable_partial": true
    },
    "whisper_duration_guard": {
      "media_duration": 2891.302,
      "rejected_segment_count": 0,
      "rejected_segments": []
    }
  }
}