{
  "text": "一個國家的企業賺著35年來最多的錢,而這個國家的老百姓卻在節衣縮食。這兩件事情能同時發生嗎?能,它正在發生。就是現在的日本。\n我們來看兩組數字,都是2026年8月公布的。第一組,來自2026年春豆。春豆是什麼?是每年二三月份,日本各大企業的工會代表員工跟企業老闆管理層,談家薪、談年中獎、談福利。\n结果是2026年日本全国平均加薪5.01%\n连续第三年加薪破5%\n上一年出现这种事还是1991年\n那是35年前了\n时隔35年盛景重现\n背后是这几年日本企业利润连创历史新高\n日经指数也在2026年6月\n占上了72800多点的历史高位\n那么结果呢\n结果就是第二组数字\n2026年8月公布的GDP里面\n日本的家庭消费两年以来第一次萎缩\n年收五六百万日元的典型的工薪家庭\n实际到手的收入比疫情前还少了一成以上\n所以日本到底是在变好还是在变差\n答案是它在变好的同时也在变差\n而且都还是同一批原因造成的\n这就是今天我们要讨论的\n日本正在变成一个什么样的国家\n关于这个问题\n你应该听过两种宪政答案\n日本复活了\n或者是日本要完\n这两个答案\n各对一半又各错了一半\n因为真正的答案\n并不是一个立场\n而是下面这套机制\n钱明明赚到了\n为什么传导不到老百姓的手里\n这一条断掉的传导链条\n才是我们今天要真正讲的东西\n照例开始之前\n我们先打个基础\n今天这条影片的基础是\n学会读日本的数字\n不会读的人就容易掉进障眼法里面\n看不到实际情况\n我们就从2026年8月那份GDP的报告开始\n里面有三个数字我们一个一个来讲\n第一个个人消费\n2026年8月环比萎缩了0.02%\n也就是负的0.02%\n这个数字听起来很小几乎就是零\n但是注意两件事情\n消费占日本经济总量的超过一半\n这个项目要是不动\n整个经济就很难启动\n第二呢\n方向比幅度重要\n这是连续两年来\n日本家庭消费第一次转富\n你可能会觉得奇怪\n开头我们不是说了吗\n日本2026年春斗平均加薪5.01%\n连续三年加薪破5%\n35年来头一次\n工资涨幅创35年的记录\n消费却在萎缩\n为什么呢\n一听就很反常\n我们先记下\n回头再来解释\n第二个数字\n日本企业的设备投资环比下降了1.2%\n设备投资是什么\n是企业花钱买机器盖厂房更新产线投资未来\n台头说了\n日本企业现在非常赚钱\n但不投资不扩产\n这意味着什么呢\n意味着日本企业普遍不确定\n接下来要不要值不值得在日本国内加码投资\n第三是外需\n出口微增0.5%\n进口大跌1.5%\n这意味着什么呢\n意味着账面上的正贡献实际上是靠进口大跌\n也就是进不了口买不进来支撑起来的\n把这三个数字合起来\n就是日本此时的成绩单概括上一句话就是\n家庭少了消费企业不再投资外需也靠不住\n好讲到这儿开头说的打基础完成了\n但如果只看一个季度观众肯定觉得不够\n接下来我们就把时间尺度拉长\n把此刻跟五年前相比\n日本到底改变了什么\n答案提前摆出来\n改变非常大\n大到可以说\n今天的日本已经不再是大多数人印象里面的那个日本了\n变化可以概括为四个\n第一个变化\n物价\n五年前\n一提到日本全世界众口一词\n通缩\n什么叫通缩呢\n就是物价长期不涨甚至下跌\n物价不涨不是好事吗\n听起来对消费者是好事\n但对整个经济却是慢性病\n物价不涨\n企业的出厂价格也就不敢涨\n利润也就不增长\n利润不增长\n企业当然也就不敢加薪\n不加薪呢\n那大家就更不敢消费\n这个循环就锁死了\n日本在这种状态里面待了大概30年\n企业和民众都形成了一种预期\n明年的价格跟今年一样\n现在这件事情结束了\n日本的核心通胀率从2022年的4月开始\n已经连续4年\n维持在2%到3%\n从拉面到电费全面涨价\n涨价当然也有问题\n一会儿我们会详细讲\n但是在日本的经济结构上\n这是30年来的第一次价格重新动起来了\n这不是一次波动\n而是整个经济范式的转变\n第二个变化\n股市\n五年前日经指数在两万多点的位置\n已经徘徊了20多年\n全球的基金经理是普遍不看日股\n而现在开头提过了\n2026年6月22号\n日经指数冲到了72,800多点\n这是多高呢\n是1989年泡沫经济高峰时38900多点的将近两倍\n这里还有一个细节\n2026年6月16号\n日经指数盘中第一次占上7万点\n就在同一天日本央行宣布加息\n把政策利率提到1.0%\n要知道加息是利空股市的\n可是日本股市当天创下了历史新高\n这说明了什么呢\n说明推动这轮行情的力量比利率更大\n那又是什么呢\n这就要讲到日股这一轮上涨的背后\n一个制度层面的东西\n东京正确交易所这几年推了一项改革\n改革就针对一个标准\n叫市净率英文缩写PBR\n市净率是什么\n就是公司的股价的总值除以公司账面上的净资产\n如果这个数字低于一\n意思是市场给这家公司的定价\n比它账面上的加大\n加起来还要便宜\n那等于市场在说\n你这家公司活着创造的价值\n还不如直接清算掉\n过去日本的股市\n大量的公司是长期低于一的\n没有人管\n东正这次的改革就是\n低于一的公司\n必须提出具体的改善计划\n否则面临退市压力\n东京正确交易所\n这一逼逼出了什么呢\n日本企业账上是趴着大量现金的\n过去是舍不得动\n现在被迫拿出来\n回购自己的股票\n提高分红\n砍掉不赚钱的业务\n再加上2023年巴菲特公开加码日本三菱三井伊藤中 驻友 顽红五大商社\n这个示范效应之下国际长线资金大量进场\n所以这一轮日股上涨至少有一部分它不是行情因素\n是制度改变带来的结果\n这个改变又意味着什么呢\n别急后面马上会讲到\n这是第二个变化\n第三个变化\n日本企业的企业利润\n日本商市企业的整体利润\n从2021财年起连续5年创历史新高\n但这里面有一个机制必须讲清楚\n不然你会误读后面的所有内容\n什么机制呢\n日元贬值的折算效应\n什么意思呢\n过去几年日元对美元经历了大幅贬值\n2026年7月底\n还一度跌破了160这个关口\n日本的大型企业像丰田索尼三菱\n很大一部分收入是来自海外的\n赚的是美元欧元\n当日元变得便宜\n那同样一亿美元的海外利润\n换算回到日元的时候\n账面上的数字就大幅的膨胀\n企业什么都没多做\n财报就变好看了\n你可能会想\n哦利润是假的\n这么想不对\n海外的钱是真金白银\n只不过是这份利润里面\n有相当一部分是换算出来的\n而不是多生产出来的\n这个区别等一会儿会成为一把钥匙\n通过它才能理解日本的全部矛盾\n第四個變化,台灣觀眾應該特別有感,那就是半導體。五年前,國際普遍認為日本在尖端晶片製造上已經出局了。\n而现在台积电在熊本的工厂\n从动工到投产只用了大约两年\n其中做成熟制成的熊本一厂\n2024年底顺利量产\n已经达到收支平衡\n营运状况优于预期\n还有个熊本二厂\n能做3纳米先进制成的\n预计2028年正式装机并上线投产\n另外日本政府还出资联合本土8家大企业\n成立的一个叫Refidus\n直接挑战2纳米制成\n进度是超乎市场预期\n预计2027财年\n也就是2027年4月到2028年3月\n正式进入商业放量全面量产\nRapidus还正在规划建设第二工厂\n预计最快2027年动工\n目标在2029年直接跨入1.4纳米的制程\n更关键的是\n就算在失落的30年里\n日本也从来没有失去过\n半导体上游的主导地位\n像光刻胶\n特殊化学材料\n还有部分关键设施\n日本厂商是长期占据\n全球市场的主导份额的\n也就是说\n不管在哪里做晶片\n材料和设备都绕不开日本\n2026年上半年\n撑住日本出口的正是AI和半导体的相关产品\n把这四个变化放在一起\n物价恢复流动\n股市创造新高\n企业利润也创历史新高\n而且在全球最重要的产业链上\n占据了难以替代的位置\n从这些角度来看\n日本复活了\n但是日本居民的消费\n两年来第一次负增长\n企业赚着30多年最多的钱\n工资涨幅又创了35年的记录\n日本的老百姓为什么还在缩减开支呢\n这就是另一半居民部门\n同样是跟五年前我们来做个对比\n同样用数字来说话\n看第一个事实\n工资在涨\n但是到手的钱在跌\n日本总务省做了一个调查\n日本年收500万的600万日元左右\n也就是最典型的这一批工薪家庭\n2025年实质可支配收入\n比一金钱减少了一成以上\n还有部分家庭正是因为\n加了新民意上收入变高\n反而被推上了更高的所得税的急剧\n这又是什么意思呢\n我们现在搞懂两个词\n第一个词民意和实质\n民意收入就是你薪资单上印的那个数字\n实质收入是这个数字扣掉物价上涨之后\n实际能买到的东西\n比如民意加薪5%\n而物价上涨3%\n你实际只多了2%\n如果民意加薪还是5%\n但物价却涨了8%\n那你的实际收入就是在跌\n这是第一个词\n第二个词\n可支配收入\n那就是到手的部分\n薪资单上的数字要先扣掉税\n扣掉社会保险\n剩下的才是你能花的\n所以完整的列条是\n企业给你民意加薪\n先被物价吃掉这一块\n再被社保和税又扣掉一块\n最后到手的真正能花的钱\n比五年前少了一成\n所以对家庭来说\n工资涨了是新闻里面的喜事\n到手少了才是自己的日常\n这是居民端的第一个事实\n第二个事实也是最重的一个\n人口\n日本2025年的总和生育率是1.14\n历史新低\n连续第十年下降\n东京都0.96\n连续三年跌破1\n而全年全日本的新生儿\n只有67万1000人\n是1899年有统计以来\n120多年的新低\n2025年全日本的新生儿67万\n这个数字有什么意义呢\n给一个参照\n2023年日本做过一个官方的预测\n新生儿跌破63万这件事情\n预测会是在什么时候发生\n会是在2040年前后才会发生\n但实际上2025年就发生了\n你看两年前做的预测\n两年后就被打破了\n快了整整15年\n同时因为每年去世的人\n远多于出生的人口\n2025年全日本的人口\n自然间少差不多92万\n2026年全日本已经不到1.2亿人\n已经是连续19年负增长\n什么概念呢\n相当于每年抹掉一个中型城市那么多人口\n但是请注意\n日本的1.14总和生育率\n在东亚已经是比较高的了\n或者说是最高的了\n因为韩国更低\n中国2025年的总和生育率\n首次跌破1.0的大关\n也就只有0.97到0.98之间\n日本今天碰到的所有问题\n它怎么应对应对的怎么样\n某种意义上是整个东亚的预告片\n好\n讲到这儿\n矛盾已经完整的摆在桌子上了\n同一个国家\n企业的账本上是30年来最好的年份\n而家庭的账本上是持续收缩的10年\n那所有人都会问\n钱明明是赚到了\n为什么就传不过去呢\n企业赚的钱要变成老百姓口袋里面的钱\n正常有三条路\n发工资\n政府收税再分配\n以及利润留在国内\n再投资带动就业\n日本的情况是\n这三条路都堵住了\n还各有各的堵法\n第一条\n日本的税和社会保险\n把加薪加出来的钱\n半路上就给劫走了\n这里要看这样一个背景\n日本65岁以上人口占比将近三成\n29.4%\n什么意思呢\n意思是维持这个规模的医疗看护年金体系\n开销极其巨大\n那这个开销从哪来呢\n主要是从在职者的工资里面去扣\n怎么扣呢\n通过社会保险这个机制\n过去几年\n日本的社会保险费持续上调\n同时民意工资呢\n上涨还会触发另一个机制\n就是刚才说的隐形增税\n所得税是累进的\n民意上加薪会把你推上更高的急剧\n税也跟着多角了\n这两件事情一叠加\n结果就是前面所说的\n加薪加的5%到手之后\n可能还不增反解\n我们再看生意层\n日本这套体系还在做一件什么事情呢\n他在把收入从在职的年轻时代转移给到退休的老年时代\n你一定就知道这很严重\n那到底有多严重呢\n这两群人有一个关键差别\n经济学上有个词叫消费倾向\n就是每拿到多一块钱会花掉多少\n年轻人拿到钱大概率会花掉\n因为要租房要养小孩要过日子\n而老年人拿到钱大概率会存起来\n因为要担心医疗担心活得比存款归零要久\n那有个数字\n日本家庭金融资产总额六成以上\n是在60岁以上的老年人手里面\n看懂这条传导链的关键问题了吗\n钱从一定会花到的年轻人手里\n把它收上来\n又交到那些倾向于不花钱的老年人手里面\n然后还沉淀在这个银行的账户里\n退出了消费循环\n这是第一条传导路径\n税和社保机制就这么被堵住了\n第二条传导路径\n我们看汇率\n前面讲过\n日元贬值让企业的海外利润在账面上暴增\n这件事情还有它的另外一面\n是什么呢\n日本的能源几乎全靠进口\n粮食的自给率呢\n以卡路里来计算也就37%\n三分之一多一点\n其他接近三分之二要靠进口\n日元贬值就意味着\n进口每一桶油每一批小麦\n用日元计价都变贵了\n这叫输入性通胀\n进口成本上升推动了物价变贵\n所以日元贬值这一件事情\n同时从相反的方向干了两套活\n它让日本企业海外利润折算通胀创到新高\n又从相反的方向迫使日本家庭购买力下降\n因为靠进口才能维持米面油蛋肉的正常生产\n这个成本上升了\n所以你看汇率这条传导路径\n也对日本企业抬升利润有利\n却对日本的居民消费大大不利\n这条传导路径也堵住了\n第三条传导路径\n利润的地理位置不对\n这是一个更少被提到的机制\n在过去30年里\n因为国内市场萎缩\n日本企业就把大量投资放在海外\n像美国 欧洲 东南亚\n日本因此当了30多年的\n全球最大的对外净债权国\n2025年\n日本的经常账顺差是31.9兆日元\n创历史新高\n但是请注意\n撑起这个顺差的早就不是贸易\n而是41.6兆的第一次所得收支\n什么意思呢\n就是海外投资的分红和利息\n换句话来说\n今天日本赚全世界的钱\n已经不是靠卖东西\n而是靠当股东\n它已经从贸易立国变成了投资立国\n而且这些海外投资里面大约有三成是以外币的形态\n直接留在海外再投资了\n根本就不换回日元回到国内\n这个顺便也解释了另外一个谜题\n就是为什么日本赚着史上最多的海外的钱\n日元却长期疲软\n这三条机制放在一起\n为什么企业赚了钱本国百姓却还节一缩十\n答案就完整了\n赚钱的主体赚钱的地点和分钱的机制\n跟30年前完全不同了\n但是回过头\n我同样要去修正日本崩溃论\n日本要完的这个叙事\n第一\n日本失业率长期在2.5%上下\n这几乎就是全民就业\n一个正在崩溃中的经济体\n不会常年缺人手\n第二\n家庭缩减消费\n更准确的解读\n不是穷到花不起\n而是理性防御\n日本家庭看得到日本结构\n也算得出社保负担只会更重\n税只会更高\n所以选择多存少花\n这个行为对每个家庭来说都是理性的\n只是所有的家庭同时这么做\n加总起来就是内需萎缩\n这是经济学上的经典困境\n但不能说民不聊生\n第三呢\n少子化不是日本独有的失败\n东亚谁也跑不了\n日本只是发达的早\n所以走的早\n而且呢\n它已经在做时机的调整了\n2025年10月\n日本的外籍劳工是257万\n历史上第一次突破了250万\n一年就增长了11.7%\n已经占到全部雇员大约4%\n同时自动化和无人化的普及全球理贤\n再就是我还得修正一下我自己的叙事\n前面我跟你讲的故事是\n企业部门赢居民部门输\n这种说法大方向是成立的\n但它有点粗糙\n粗糙的地方在于居民部门的家庭\n它不是一个整体\n如果我们按照世代拆开来看\n30岁以下的年轻家庭\n因为实质工资增长比较快\n实质可支配收入其实是在增加的\n真正受挤压最重的是谁呢\n是四五十岁上有老下有小的中年家庭\n所以一个更精准的图景\n要从企业和居民两本账分成四笔账\n企业的账是史上最好的年份\n老年人的账作用六成金融资产\n中年家庭的账被物价税设保三面夹击\n非常难受\n而年轻人的账正在边际改善\n35年来最猛的加薪潮最大的受益者\n是这批刚进入职场的日本年轻人\n看到这儿你应该有个更新后的印象了\n日本变成了一个几笔账分开计的国家\n而他们之间彼此的传导还堵上了\n那你肯定会问那怎么办呢\n这就得说到日本政府\n他们正在用一种风险很高的方式\n在处理这个问题\n高市政府2025年10月正式阻隔上台\n目前的路线简单的说\n是积极财政\n一是放水\n整个经济刺激政策\n规模号称42兆\n同时是减税\n高市内阁已经决定\n2027年4月起的两年内\n把食品的消费税从8%降到1%\n这么做逻辑上是可以理解的\n既然家庭部门冰冷\n政府就自己下场花钱\n把需求给撑起来\n但政府花钱靠什么呢\n靠发债\n日本政府的债务规模\n大概是GDP的254%\n也就是2.54倍\n这在发达国家里面是最高的\n美国40兆国债\n也只是美国GDP的1.24倍\n过去30年\n日本债务规模高不是问题\n因为利率是零\n借再多利息也接近零\n那现在成问题了吗\n对因为情况变了\n通胀迫使日本压恒加息\n加上市场对政府大规模发债已经有预期了\n所以2026年8月\n10年期日本国债的殖利率一度是上升到了\n2.93%\n是1996年以来\n整整30年的最高水平\n3%的大关就在眼前\n为什么说3%是个大关口呢\n因为日本财务省编2026年年度预算的时候\n假设的利率恰好就是3%\n市场利率要是一旦持续的去冲破这个假设\n利息预算就要重新编\n而利息已经在飞了\n2026年年度预算里面\n日本光是国债利息一项就是13兆日元\n比上一年度多出3.7兆\n3.7兆是个什么概念呢\n这一年税收的全部增量是3兆\n也就是说通胀带来的税收的增量\n一年之内被利息的增量一口吃掉还不够\n这才是高市政府借钱搞投资的计划\n被借钱本身的成本吃掉的精确版本\n再有一件事情就是我频道反复提到\n可以说是2026年至今\n日本经济最重磅的单一事件\n重磅到很多人还没有反应过来\n它意味着什么\n日本和美国两国政府联手进场干预汇率\n想一想这件事情有多么不寻常\n美国几十年来的标准自贷是指责别国搞汇率操控\n现在他自己下场帮日本撑日元\n为什么呢\n是担心日本卖美债把火烧到美债市场\n看过上一期讲美国火债的观众应该都明白过来\n债务存量本身不直接致命\n关键是两个前提\n利息付不付得起\n新债有没有人来买\n过去日本的优势是\n国债大部分是由国内机构和央行持有\n外债比例低\n所以压力它是慢性的不是急性的\n但是美日28年来第一次联合干预日元汇率\n以及30年来最高的长期利率之后\n反映日本的国债的信用的CDS\n已经开始明显走高了\n慢性并开始出现了急性症状的前兆了\n虽然目前为止还不能说是危机\n但是信号已经挂出来了\n好回到开头的问题\n日本正在变成一个什么样的国家呢\n日本正在变成一个对外部门和对内部门\n走向完全相反的国家\n它的企业资本市场产业连位置在扩张在升级\n在被全世界重新定价\n但是呢\n它的家庭收入国内消费人口在持续的收缩\n而连接这两边的机制\n向工资税收分配没有接通\n说了这么多\n我们的目的是要全面准确的认识日本\n全面准确认识日本跟我们普通人又有什么关系呢\n如果您在北美\n日本就是一个正在进行中的实验\n实验什么呢\n一个发达国家\n能不能在家庭部门长期收缩的情况下\n只靠企业部门单引擎运转\n这个实验非常重要\n重要到就连美国财政部都要亲自下场来维稳\n日本这个实验是成功还是失败\n台湾大概率都是可以直接去参考借鉴或者是避免的\n好\n赵立声明\n本期内容是资讯分享和个人分析\n不构成任何投资建议\n看完之后\n如果您觉得不错\n请您点个赞\n点个订阅\n我们下期再见",
  "language": "zh",
  "duration": 1429.095313,
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    {
      "start": 0.0,
      "end": 13.5,
      "text": "一個國家的企業賺著35年來最多的錢,而這個國家的老百姓卻在節衣縮食。這兩件事情能同時發生嗎?能,它正在發生。就是現在的日本。",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "end": 29.8,
      "text": "我們來看兩組數字,都是2026年8月公布的。第一組,來自2026年春豆。春豆是什麼?是每年二三月份,日本各大企業的工會代表員工跟企業老闆管理層,談家薪、談年中獎、談福利。",
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    {
      "start": 29.8,
      "end": 34.92,
      "text": "结果是2026年日本全国平均加薪5.01%",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.13290675481160483,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0120012466918737e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 34.92,
      "end": 38.3,
      "text": "连续第三年加薪破5%",
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    {
      "start": 38.3,
      "end": 41.38,
      "text": "上一年出现这种事还是1991年",
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    {
      "start": 41.38,
      "end": 43.32,
      "text": "那是35年前了",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "start": 43.32,
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      "text": "时隔35年盛景重现",
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      "start": 45.92,
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      "text": "背后是这几年日本企业利润连创历史新高",
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      "text": "日经指数也在2026年6月",
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      "start": 53.34,
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      "text": "占上了72800多点的历史高位",
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      "start": 56.9,
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      "text": "那么结果呢",
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      "start": 59.0,
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      "text": "结果就是第二组数字",
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      "start": 60.96,
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      "text": "2026年8月公布的GDP里面",
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      "start": 63.8,
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      "text": "日本的家庭消费两年以来第一次萎缩",
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    {
      "start": 67.64,
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      "text": "年收五六百万日元的典型的工薪家庭",
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      "start": 71.06,
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      "text": "实际到手的收入比疫情前还少了一成以上",
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      "start": 75.2,
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      "text": "所以日本到底是在变好还是在变差",
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      "start": 78.8,
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      "text": "答案是它在变好的同时也在变差",
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      "start": 82.56,
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      "text": "而且都还是同一批原因造成的",
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      "start": 85.68,
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      "text": "这就是今天我们要讨论的",
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      "start": 87.44,
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      "text": "日本正在变成一个什么样的国家",
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      "start": 90.12,
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      "text": "关于这个问题",
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      "start": 91.42,
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      "text": "你应该听过两种宪政答案",
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      "start": 93.38,
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      "start": 94.54,
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      "text": "或者是日本要完",
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      "text": "这两个答案",
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      "start": 97.54,
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      "text": "各对一半又各错了一半",
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      "start": 99.48,
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      "start": 100.98,
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      "start": 102.28,
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      "text": "而是下面这套机制",
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      "start": 104.1,
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      "text": "钱明明赚到了",
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      "start": 105.78,
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      "text": "为什么传导不到老百姓的手里",
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      "start": 108.68,
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      "text": "这一条断掉的传导链条",
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      "start": 111.0,
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      "text": "才是我们今天要真正讲的东西",
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      "start": 113.82,
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      "text": "照例开始之前",
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      "start": 114.74,
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      "text": "我们先打个基础",
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      "start": 115.96,
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      "text": "今天这条影片的基础是",
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      "start": 118.02,
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      "text": "学会读日本的数字",
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      "start": 119.9,
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      "text": "不会读的人就容易掉进障眼法里面",
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      "start": 122.92,
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      "text": "看不到实际情况",
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      "start": 123.9,
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      "text": "我们就从2026年8月那份GDP的报告开始",
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      "start": 130.18,
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      "text": "第一个个人消费",
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      "text": "2026年8月环比萎缩了0.02%",
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      "text": "也就是负的0.02%",
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      "start": 140.08,
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      "text": "但是注意两件事情",
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      "text": "消费占日本经济总量的超过一半",
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      "start": 144.52,
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      "start": 146.04,
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      "start": 148.04,
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      "text": "第二呢",
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    {
      "start": 148.78,
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      "text": "方向比幅度重要",
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      "start": 150.26,
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      "text": "这是连续两年来",
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      "start": 151.72,
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      "text": "日本家庭消费第一次转富",
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    {
      "start": 154.16,
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      "text": "你可能会觉得奇怪",
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    {
      "start": 155.72,
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      "text": "开头我们不是说了吗",
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    {
      "start": 157.38,
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      "text": "日本2026年春斗平均加薪5.01%",
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    {
      "start": 160.74,
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      "text": "连续三年加薪破5%",
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    {
      "start": 162.68,
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      "text": "35年来头一次",
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    {
      "start": 163.88,
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      "text": "工资涨幅创35年的记录",
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      "start": 166.5,
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      "text": "消费却在萎缩",
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      "start": 167.9,
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      "text": "为什么呢",
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    {
      "start": 168.92,
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      "text": "一听就很反常",
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    {
      "start": 170.16,
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      "text": "我们先记下",
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    {
      "start": 171.28,
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      "text": "回头再来解释",
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      "start": 172.62,
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      "text": "第二个数字",
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      "text": "日本企业的设备投资环比下降了1.2%",
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      "start": 179.3,
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      "text": "是企业花钱买机器盖厂房更新产线投资未来",
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      "start": 188.38,
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      "start": 189.7,
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      "text": "意味着日本企业普遍不确定",
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      "text": "出口微增0.5%",
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      "text": "这意味着什么呢",
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      "start": 204.2,
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      "start": 208.48,
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      "text": "也就是进不了口买不进来支撑起来的",
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      "start": 211.68,
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      "text": "把这三个数字合起来",
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      "start": 213.58,
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      "text": "就是日本此时的成绩单概括上一句话就是",
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      "text": "家庭少了消费企业不再投资外需也靠不住",
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      "start": 220.84,
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      "start": 224.48,
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      "text": "但如果只看一个季度观众肯定觉得不够",
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      "start": 227.32,
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      "start": 229.78,
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      "text": "把此刻跟五年前相比",
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      "text": "日本到底改变了什么",
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      "start": 236.54,
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      "text": "大到可以说",
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      "text": "今天的日本已经不再是大多数人印象里面的那个日本了",
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      "text": "物价",
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      "text": "五年前",
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      "start": 246.0,
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      "text": "一提到日本全世界众口一词",
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      "text": "通缩",
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      "text": "但对整个经济却是慢性病",
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      "text": "企业的出厂价格也就不敢涨",
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      "start": 265.16,
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      "text": "企业当然也就不敢加薪",
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      "start": 267.6,
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      "text": "那大家就更不敢消费",
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      "start": 269.26,
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      "text": "这个循环就锁死了",
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      "text": "日本在这种状态里面待了大概30年",
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      "text": "企业和民众都形成了一种预期",
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      "start": 278.6,
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      "text": "现在这件事情结束了",
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      "text": "日本的核心通胀率从2022年的4月开始",
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      "text": "维持在2%到3%",
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      "start": 286.7,
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      "text": "从拉面到电费全面涨价",
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      "start": 290.68,
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      "text": "一会儿我们会详细讲",
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      "text": "股市",
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      "start": 303.76,
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      "text": "五年前日经指数在两万多点的位置",
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      "start": 306.88,
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      "text": "已经徘徊了20多年",
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      "start": 308.5,
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      "text": "全球的基金经理是普遍不看日股",
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      "start": 312.88,
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      "text": "2026年6月22号",
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      "start": 317.32,
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      "start": 318.62,
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      "text": "是1989年泡沫经济高峰时38900多点的将近两倍",
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      "start": 325.32,
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      "text": "2026年6月16号",
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      "start": 326.88,
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      "text": "日经指数盘中第一次占上7万点",
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      "start": 329.4,
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      "text": "就在同一天日本央行宣布加息",
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      "start": 332.04,
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      "text": "把政策利率提到1.0%",
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      "text": "可是日本股市当天创下了历史新高",
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      "text": "这说明了什么呢",
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      "start": 342.32,
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      "text": "说明推动这轮行情的力量比利率更大",
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      "text": "这就要讲到日股这一轮上涨的背后",
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      "start": 350.62,
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      "start": 356.74,
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      "text": "叫市净率英文缩写PBR",
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      "start": 361.04,
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      "text": "就是公司的股价的总值除以公司账面上的净资产",
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      "text": "加起来还要便宜",
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      "text": "你这家公司活着创造的价值",
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      "text": "还不如直接清算掉",
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      "start": 382.72,
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      "start": 385.16,
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      "text": "低于一的公司",
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      "start": 386.44,
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      "text": "必须提出具体的改善计划",
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      "text": "日本企业账上是趴着大量现金的",
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      "start": 398.1,
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      "start": 399.8,
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      "text": "回购自己的股票",
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      "start": 401.26,
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      "text": "提高分红",
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      "start": 402.04,
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      "text": "砍掉不赚钱的业务",
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      "start": 403.46,
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      "text": "再加上2023年巴菲特公开加码日本三菱三井伊藤中 驻友 顽红五大商社",
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      "text": "这个示范效应之下国际长线资金大量进场",
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      "start": 414.3,
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      "text": "所以这一轮日股上涨至少有一部分它不是行情因素",
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      "start": 418.56,
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      "text": "是制度改变带来的结果",
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      "start": 425.0,
      "end": 426.0,
      "text": "第三个变化",
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    {
      "start": 426.0,
      "end": 427.96,
      "text": "日本企业的企业利润",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12432660748881678,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3101879824117812e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2604166666666667,
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    {
      "start": 427.96,
      "end": 430.04,
      "text": "日本商市企业的整体利润",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.0989808683042173,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3797490927558442e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3149847094801224,
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    },
    {
      "start": 430.04,
      "end": 433.5,
      "text": "从2021财年起连续5年创历史新高",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.0989808683042173,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3797490927558442e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3149847094801224,
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    },
    {
      "start": 433.5,
      "end": 435.8,
      "text": "但这里面有一个机制必须讲清楚",
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    },
    {
      "start": 435.8,
      "end": 437.6,
      "text": "不然你会误读后面的所有内容",
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    {
      "start": 437.6,
      "end": 438.7,
      "text": "什么机制呢",
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    },
    {
      "start": 438.7,
      "end": 441.1,
      "text": "日元贬值的折算效应",
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    },
    {
      "start": 441.1,
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      "text": "什么意思呢",
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    {
      "start": 442.36,
      "end": 445.62,
      "text": "过去几年日元对美元经历了大幅贬值",
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    {
      "start": 445.62,
      "end": 447.06,
      "text": "2026年7月底",
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    },
    {
      "start": 447.06,
      "end": 449.3,
      "text": "还一度跌破了160这个关口",
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      "start": 449.3,
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      "text": "日本的大型企业像丰田索尼三菱",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3797490927558442e-11,
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    {
      "start": 452.16,
      "end": 454.34,
      "text": "很大一部分收入是来自海外的",
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    {
      "start": 454.34,
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      "text": "赚的是美元欧元",
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    {
      "start": 455.88,
      "end": 457.46,
      "text": "当日元变得便宜",
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      "start": 457.46,
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      "text": "那同样一亿美元的海外利润",
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    {
      "start": 459.9,
      "end": 461.68,
      "text": "换算回到日元的时候",
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    {
      "start": 461.68,
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      "text": "账面上的数字就大幅的膨胀",
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    {
      "start": 464.24,
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      "text": "企业什么都没多做",
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    {
      "start": 466.2,
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      "text": "财报就变好看了",
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    {
      "start": 467.64,
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      "text": "你可能会想",
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    {
      "start": 468.84,
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      "text": "哦利润是假的",
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    {
      "start": 470.72,
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      "text": "这么想不对",
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      "start": 471.54,
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      "text": "海外的钱是真金白银",
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      "start": 473.6,
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      "text": "只不过是这份利润里面",
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      "start": 475.46,
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      "text": "有相当一部分是换算出来的",
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    {
      "start": 477.72,
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      "text": "而不是多生产出来的",
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    {
      "start": 479.56,
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      "text": "这个区别等一会儿会成为一把钥匙",
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    {
      "start": 482.02,
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      "text": "通过它才能理解日本的全部矛盾",
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      "start": 485.239,
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      "text": "第四個變化,台灣觀眾應該特別有感,那就是半導體。五年前,國際普遍認為日本在尖端晶片製造上已經出局了。",
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      "start": 496.239,
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      "text": "而现在台积电在熊本的工厂",
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      "start": 498.679,
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      "text": "从动工到投产只用了大约两年",
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      "start": 501.019,
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      "text": "其中做成熟制成的熊本一厂",
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      "start": 503.439,
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      "text": "2024年底顺利量产",
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      "text": "已经达到收支平衡",
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      "start": 506.719,
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      "text": "营运状况优于预期",
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      "start": 508.439,
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      "text": "还有个熊本二厂",
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      "start": 510.119,
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      "text": "能做3纳米先进制成的",
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      "start": 512.219,
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      "text": "预计2028年正式装机并上线投产",
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      "start": 515.499,
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      "text": "另外日本政府还出资联合本土8家大企业",
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      "start": 519.019,
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      "text": "成立的一个叫Refidus",
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      "start": 520.379,
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      "text": "直接挑战2纳米制成",
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      "start": 522.639,
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      "text": "进度是超乎市场预期",
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    {
      "start": 524.639,
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      "text": "预计2027财年",
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      "start": 526.599,
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      "text": "也就是2027年4月到2028年3月",
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      "start": 529.579,
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      "text": "正式进入商业放量全面量产",
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      "start": 531.999,
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      "text": "Rapidus还正在规划建设第二工厂",
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      "start": 535.199,
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      "text": "预计最快2027年动工",
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      "start": 537.179,
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      "text": "目标在2029年直接跨入1.4纳米的制程",
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      "start": 541.319,
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      "text": "更关键的是",
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      "start": 542.659,
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      "text": "就算在失落的30年里",
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      "text": "日本也从来没有失去过",
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    {
      "start": 546.219,
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      "text": "半导体上游的主导地位",
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    {
      "start": 547.959,
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      "text": "像光刻胶",
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    {
      "start": 549.019,
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      "text": "特殊化学材料",
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      "start": 550.319,
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      "text": "还有部分关键设施",
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    {
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      "text": "日本厂商是长期占据",
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      "text": "也就是说",
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    {
      "start": 556.019,
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      "text": "不管在哪里做晶片",
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      "start": 557.359,
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      "text": "材料和设备都绕不开日本",
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      "start": 559.899,
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      "text": "2026年上半年",
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    {
      "start": 561.539,
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      "text": "撑住日本出口的正是AI和半导体的相关产品",
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    {
      "start": 565.179,
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      "text": "把这四个变化放在一起",
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      "start": 567.079,
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      "text": "物价恢复流动",
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      "text": "股市创造新高",
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      "text": "而且在全球最重要的产业链上",
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      "start": 574.399,
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      "text": "占据了难以替代的位置",
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      "text": "从这些角度来看",
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      "text": "但是日本居民的消费",
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      "start": 581.399,
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      "text": "两年来第一次负增长",
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      "text": "企业赚着30多年最多的钱",
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      "text": "日本的老百姓为什么还在缩减开支呢",
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      "text": "同样是跟五年前我们来做个对比",
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      "text": "同样用数字来说话",
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      "text": "但是到手的钱在跌",
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      "text": "日本年收500万的600万日元左右",
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      "text": "加了新民意上收入变高",
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      "text": "这又是什么意思呢",
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      "text": "第一个词民意和实质",
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      "text": "民意收入就是你薪资单上印的那个数字",
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      "text": "比如民意加薪5%",
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      "text": "你实际只多了2%",
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      "text": "那你的实际收入就是在跌",
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      "text": "第二个词",
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      "text": "可支配收入",
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      "start": 651.019,
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      "text": "薪资单上的数字要先扣掉税",
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      "text": "扣掉社会保险",
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      "text": "剩下的才是你能花的",
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      "start": 656.859,
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      "text": "所以完整的列条是",
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      "start": 658.339,
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      "text": "企业给你民意加薪",
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      "text": "先被物价吃掉这一块",
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      "text": "再被社保和税又扣掉一块",
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      "text": "最后到手的真正能花的钱",
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      "start": 667.199,
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      "text": "比五年前少了一成",
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      "text": "所以对家庭来说",
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      "text": "工资涨了是新闻里面的喜事",
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    {
      "start": 673.219,
      "end": 676.019,
      "text": "到手少了才是自己的日常",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571188451853232e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 676.019,
      "end": 678.059,
      "text": "这是居民端的第一个事实",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571188451853232e-11,
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    {
      "start": 678.059,
      "end": 680.059,
      "text": "第二个事实也是最重的一个",
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    {
      "start": 680.059,
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      "text": "人口",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571188451853232e-11,
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    {
      "start": 680.859,
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      "text": "日本2025年的总和生育率是1.14",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571188451853232e-11,
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    {
      "start": 684.639,
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      "text": "历史新低",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 685.739,
      "end": 687.299,
      "text": "连续第十年下降",
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    {
      "start": 687.299,
      "end": 689.159,
      "text": "东京都0.96",
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    },
    {
      "start": 689.159,
      "end": 690.779,
      "text": "连续三年跌破1",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12144707441329956,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571188451853232e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 690.779,
      "end": 692.979,
      "text": "而全年全日本的新生儿",
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    {
      "start": 692.979,
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      "text": "只有67万1000人",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571188451853232e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 694.659,
      "end": 697.299,
      "text": "是1899年有统计以来",
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    },
    {
      "start": 697.299,
      "end": 698.719,
      "text": "120多年的新低",
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      "start": 698.719,
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      "text": "2025年全日本的新生儿67万",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 701.439,
      "end": 703.179,
      "text": "这个数字有什么意义呢",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3160201227380153e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 703.179,
      "end": 704.019,
      "text": "给一个参照",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10474261397835594,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3160201227380153e-11,
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    {
      "start": 704.019,
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      "text": "2023年日本做过一个官方的预测",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3160201227380153e-11,
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    {
      "start": 706.699,
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      "text": "新生儿跌破63万这件事情",
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      "start": 709.159,
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      "text": "预测会是在什么时候发生",
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      "start": 710.979,
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      "text": "会是在2040年前后才会发生",
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      "start": 713.919,
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      "text": "但实际上2025年就发生了",
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      "start": 716.559,
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      "text": "你看两年前做的预测",
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      "start": 718.479,
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      "text": "两年后就被打破了",
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      "start": 719.939,
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      "text": "快了整整15年",
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      "start": 721.399,
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      "text": "同时因为每年去世的人",
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      "start": 723.979,
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      "text": "远多于出生的人口",
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      "start": 725.959,
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      "text": "2025年全日本的人口",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 727.899,
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      "text": "自然间少差不多92万",
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      "text": "2026年全日本已经不到1.2亿人",
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      "start": 732.459,
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      "text": "已经是连续19年负增长",
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    {
      "start": 734.599,
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      "text": "什么概念呢",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3841104477829713e-11,
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      "start": 735.619,
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      "text": "相当于每年抹掉一个中型城市那么多人口",
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      "start": 739.359,
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      "text": "但是请注意",
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      "text": "日本的1.14总和生育率",
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      "text": "在东亚已经是比较高的了",
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      "text": "或者说是最高的了",
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      "text": "因为韩国更低",
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      "text": "中国2025年的总和生育率",
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      "start": 750.179,
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      "text": "首次跌破1.0的大关",
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      "text": "也就只有0.97到0.98之间",
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      "text": "日本今天碰到的所有问题",
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      "text": "它怎么应对应对的怎么样",
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      "start": 758.719,
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      "text": "某种意义上是整个东亚的预告片",
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      "start": 761.419,
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      "text": "好",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 762.159,
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      "text": "讲到这儿",
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      "start": 763.119,
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      "text": "矛盾已经完整的摆在桌子上了",
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      "start": 765.199,
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      "text": "同一个国家",
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      "text": "企业的账本上是30年来最好的年份",
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      "start": 768.999,
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      "text": "而家庭的账本上是持续收缩的10年",
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      "text": "那所有人都会问",
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      "text": "钱明明是赚到了",
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      "start": 775.619,
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      "text": "为什么就传不过去呢",
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      "text": "企业赚的钱要变成老百姓口袋里面的钱",
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      "start": 780.319,
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      "text": "正常有三条路",
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      "start": 781.459,
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      "text": "发工资",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 782.339,
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      "text": "政府收税再分配",
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      "start": 783.919,
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      "text": "以及利润留在国内",
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    {
      "start": 785.559,
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      "text": "再投资带动就业",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09765751078977424,
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      "text": "日本的情况是",
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    {
      "start": 788.499,
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      "text": "这三条路都堵住了",
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      "start": 790.819,
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      "text": "还各有各的堵法",
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    {
      "start": 792.019,
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      "text": "第一条",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 793.039,
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      "text": "日本的税和社会保险",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 794.839,
      "end": 796.879,
      "text": "把加薪加出来的钱",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.217220768623406e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 796.879,
      "end": 798.479,
      "text": "半路上就给劫走了",
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    {
      "start": 798.479,
      "end": 800.139,
      "text": "这里要看这样一个背景",
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    {
      "start": 800.139,
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      "text": "日本65岁以上人口占比将近三成",
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      "text": "29.4%",
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    {
      "start": 804.999,
      "end": 805.659,
      "text": "什么意思呢",
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      "start": 805.659,
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      "text": "意思是维持这个规模的医疗看护年金体系",
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      "start": 809.239,
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      "text": "开销极其巨大",
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      "text": "那这个开销从哪来呢",
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      "start": 812.279,
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      "text": "主要是从在职者的工资里面去扣",
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      "start": 815.439,
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      "text": "怎么扣呢",
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      "start": 816.419,
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      "text": "通过社会保险这个机制",
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      "start": 817.979,
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      "text": "过去几年",
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      "start": 818.979,
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      "text": "日本的社会保险费持续上调",
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      "start": 821.359,
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      "text": "同时民意工资呢",
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      "text": "上涨还会触发另一个机制",
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      "start": 824.839,
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      "text": "就是刚才说的隐形增税",
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      "start": 826.679,
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      "text": "所得税是累进的",
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      "start": 828.359,
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      "text": "民意上加薪会把你推上更高的急剧",
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      "start": 830.719,
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      "text": "税也跟着多角了",
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      "start": 832.419,
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      "text": "这两件事情一叠加",
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    {
      "start": 834.099,
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      "text": "结果就是前面所说的",
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      "start": 836.199,
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      "text": "加薪加的5%到手之后",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3501577287066246,
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    {
      "start": 838.399,
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      "text": "可能还不增反解",
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      "start": 840.179,
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      "text": "我们再看生意层",
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      "start": 842.219,
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      "text": "日本这套体系还在做一件什么事情呢",
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      "start": 845.099,
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      "text": "他在把收入从在职的年轻时代转移给到退休的老年时代",
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      "text": "你一定就知道这很严重",
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      "start": 852.699,
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      "text": "那到底有多严重呢",
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    {
      "start": 854.199,
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      "text": "这两群人有一个关键差别",
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      "start": 856.099,
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      "text": "经济学上有个词叫消费倾向",
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      "start": 858.779,
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      "text": "就是每拿到多一块钱会花掉多少",
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      "text": "年轻人拿到钱大概率会花掉",
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    {
      "start": 864.679,
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      "text": "因为要租房要养小孩要过日子",
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      "text": "而老年人拿到钱大概率会存起来",
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    {
      "start": 870.219,
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      "text": "因为要担心医疗担心活得比存款归零要久",
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      "start": 873.799,
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      "text": "那有个数字",
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      "text": "日本家庭金融资产总额六成以上",
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      "text": "是在60岁以上的老年人手里面",
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    {
      "start": 881.239,
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      "text": "看懂这条传导链的关键问题了吗",
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      "start": 884.179,
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      "text": "钱从一定会花到的年轻人手里",
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    {
      "start": 887.059,
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      "text": "把它收上来",
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    {
      "start": 888.099,
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      "text": "又交到那些倾向于不花钱的老年人手里面",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 891.659,
      "end": 894.179,
      "text": "然后还沉淀在这个银行的账户里",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.174487330307672e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3612903225806452,
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    },
    {
      "start": 894.179,
      "end": 896.079,
      "text": "退出了消费循环",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.174487330307672e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 896.079,
      "end": 897.959,
      "text": "这是第一条传导路径",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.174487330307672e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3612903225806452,
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    },
    {
      "start": 897.959,
      "end": 900.399,
      "text": "税和社保机制就这么被堵住了",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3612903225806452,
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    {
      "start": 900.399,
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      "text": "第二条传导路径",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09790523468501984,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.174487330307672e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3612903225806452,
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    },
    {
      "start": 901.919,
      "end": 902.679,
      "text": "我们看汇率",
      "chunk": 1,
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    },
    {
      "start": 902.679,
      "end": 903.599,
      "text": "前面讲过",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.174487330307672e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3612903225806452,
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    {
      "start": 903.599,
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      "text": "日元贬值让企业的海外利润在账面上暴增",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427716412049094e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3680781758957654,
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      "start": 906.939,
      "end": 909.039,
      "text": "这件事情还有它的另外一面",
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      "text": "是什么呢",
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      "text": "日本的能源几乎全靠进口",
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      "start": 912.359,
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      "text": "粮食的自给率呢",
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      "start": 913.799,
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      "text": "以卡路里来计算也就37%",
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    {
      "start": 916.099,
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      "text": "三分之一多一点",
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      "start": 917.179,
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      "text": "其他接近三分之二要靠进口",
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      "start": 919.579,
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      "text": "日元贬值就意味着",
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    {
      "start": 921.959,
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      "text": "进口每一桶油每一批小麦",
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      "start": 924.219,
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      "text": "用日元计价都变贵了",
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      "start": 926.279,
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      "text": "这叫输入性通胀",
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      "start": 927.619,
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      "text": "进口成本上升推动了物价变贵",
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      "text": "所以日元贬值这一件事情",
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      "start": 932.799,
      "end": 936.119,
      "text": "同时从相反的方向干了两套活",
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      "start": 936.119,
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      "text": "它让日本企业海外利润折算通胀创到新高",
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      "start": 940.139,
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      "text": "又从相反的方向迫使日本家庭购买力下降",
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      "start": 943.539,
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      "text": "因为靠进口才能维持米面油蛋肉的正常生产",
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      "text": "这个成本上升了",
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      "start": 949.959,
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      "text": "所以你看汇率这条传导路径",
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      "start": 952.199,
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      "text": "也对日本企业抬升利润有利",
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      "text": "却对日本的居民消费大大不利",
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      "start": 957.879,
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      "text": "这条传导路径也堵住了",
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      "start": 959.959,
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      "text": "第三条传导路径",
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      "text": "利润的地理位置不对",
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      "start": 963.239,
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      "text": "这是一个更少被提到的机制",
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      "start": 965.719,
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      "text": "在过去30年里",
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      "start": 967.179,
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      "text": "因为国内市场萎缩",
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      "start": 968.799,
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      "text": "日本企业就把大量投资放在海外",
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      "start": 971.019,
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      "text": "像美国 欧洲 东南亚",
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      "text": "日本因此当了30多年的",
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      "start": 975.019,
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      "text": "全球最大的对外净债权国",
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      "start": 977.819,
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      "text": "2025年",
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      "text": "日本的经常账顺差是31.9兆日元",
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      "start": 982.439,
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      "text": "创历史新高",
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      "start": 983.559,
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      "text": "但是请注意",
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      "start": 984.639,
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      "text": "撑起这个顺差的早就不是贸易",
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      "start": 987.419,
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      "text": "而是41.6兆的第一次所得收支",
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      "start": 990.979,
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      "text": "什么意思呢",
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      "text": "就是海外投资的分红和利息",
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      "start": 994.899,
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      "text": "换句话来说",
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      "start": 996.039,
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      "text": "今天日本赚全世界的钱",
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      "start": 998.279,
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      "text": "已经不是靠卖东西",
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      "text": "而是靠当股东",
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      "text": "它已经从贸易立国变成了投资立国",
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      "start": 1018.881,
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      "text": "而且这些海外投资里面大约有三成是以外币的形态",
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      "text": "直接留在海外再投资了",
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      "start": 1025.301,
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      "text": "根本就不换回日元回到国内",
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      "start": 1027.761,
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      "text": "这个顺便也解释了另外一个谜题",
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      "text": "就是为什么日本赚着史上最多的海外的钱",
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      "start": 1033.721,
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      "text": "日元却长期疲软",
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    {
      "start": 1035.581,
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      "text": "这三条机制放在一起",
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    {
      "start": 1037.521,
      "end": 1040.561,
      "text": "为什么企业赚了钱本国百姓却还节一缩十",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1040.561,
      "end": 1041.861,
      "text": "答案就完整了",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3656957928802589,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1041.861,
      "end": 1044.761,
      "text": "赚钱的主体赚钱的地点和分钱的机制",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3676746367374815e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3656957928802589,
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    {
      "start": 1044.761,
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      "text": "跟30年前完全不同了",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3656957928802589,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1046.901,
      "end": 1048.301,
      "text": "但是回过头",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.0886932834164127,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3584139889333269e-11,
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      "start": 1048.301,
      "end": 1050.501,
      "text": "我同样要去修正日本崩溃论",
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    {
      "start": 1050.501,
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      "text": "日本要完的这个叙事",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3108108108108107,
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    {
      "start": 1051.761,
      "end": 1052.381,
      "text": "第一",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "text": "日本失业率长期在2.5%上下",
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      "text": "这几乎就是全民就业",
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      "text": "一个正在崩溃中的经济体",
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      "text": "不会常年缺人手",
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      "text": "第二",
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    {
      "start": 1061.061,
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      "text": "家庭缩减消费",
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    {
      "start": 1062.761,
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      "text": "更准确的解读",
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      "text": "不是穷到花不起",
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      "text": "而是理性防御",
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      "text": "日本家庭看得到日本结构",
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      "start": 1068.761,
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      "text": "也算得出社保负担只会更重",
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      "text": "税只会更高",
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      "text": "所以选择多存少花",
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      "text": "这个行为对每个家庭来说都是理性的",
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      "text": "只是所有的家庭同时这么做",
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      "start": 1080.241,
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      "text": "加总起来就是内需萎缩",
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      "text": "但不能说民不聊生",
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      "text": "2025年10月",
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      "text": "历史上第一次突破了250万",
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      "text": "已经占到全部雇员大约4%",
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      "text": "再就是我还得修正一下我自己的叙事",
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      "text": "前面我跟你讲的故事是",
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      "text": "企业部门赢居民部门输",
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      "text": "如果我们按照世代拆开来看",
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      "text": "是四五十岁上有老下有小的中年家庭",
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      "text": "35年来最猛的加薪潮最大的受益者",
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      "text": "看到这儿你应该有个更新后的印象了",
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      "text": "那你肯定会问那怎么办呢",
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      "text": "这就得说到日本政府",
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      "text": "他们正在用一种风险很高的方式",
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    {
      "start": 1182.341,
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      "text": "在处理这个问题",
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      "start": 1183.461,
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      "text": "高市政府2025年10月正式阻隔上台",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3308238192011324e-11,
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      "start": 1187.181,
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      "text": "目前的路线简单的说",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3308238192011324e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1188.861,
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      "text": "是积极财政",
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      "start": 1190.021,
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      "text": "一是放水",
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    {
      "start": 1190.901,
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      "text": "整个经济刺激政策",
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      "text": "规模号称42兆",
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    {
      "start": 1194.521,
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      "text": "同时是减税",
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      "start": 1195.941,
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      "text": "高市内阁已经决定",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "start": 1197.741,
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      "text": "2027年4月起的两年内",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "start": 1199.621,
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      "text": "把食品的消费税从8%降到1%",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3900581206927054e-11,
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      "text": "这么做逻辑上是可以理解的",
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      "start": 1205.261,
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      "text": "既然家庭部门冰冷",
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      "start": 1206.661,
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      "text": "政府就自己下场花钱",
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    {
      "start": 1208.281,
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      "text": "把需求给撑起来",
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      "text": "但政府花钱靠什么呢",
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      "start": 1211.581,
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      "text": "靠发债",
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      "start": 1212.601,
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      "text": "日本政府的债务规模",
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      "start": 1214.241,
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      "text": "大概是GDP的254%",
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      "text": "也就是2.54倍",
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      "text": "这在发达国家里面是最高的",
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      "start": 1220.641,
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      "text": "美国40兆国债",
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      "text": "也只是美国GDP的1.24倍",
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      "start": 1224.761,
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      "text": "过去30年",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.290495228040145e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2871287128712872,
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    {
      "start": 1226.041,
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      "text": "日本债务规模高不是问题",
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      "start": 1228.081,
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      "text": "因为利率是零",
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    {
      "start": 1229.401,
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      "text": "借再多利息也接近零",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.12558089727642893,
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      "text": "那现在成问题了吗",
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    {
      "start": 1233.261,
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      "text": "对因为情况变了",
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    {
      "start": 1235.141,
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      "text": "通胀迫使日本压恒加息",
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    {
      "start": 1236.841,
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      "text": "加上市场对政府大规模发债已经有预期了",
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    {
      "start": 1240.321,
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      "text": "所以2026年8月",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.290495228040145e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2871287128712872,
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      "start": 1241.841,
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      "text": "10年期日本国债的殖利率一度是上升到了",
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      "text": "2.93%",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.290495228040145e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1246.321,
      "end": 1248.241,
      "text": "是1996年以来",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1248.241,
      "end": 1250.001,
      "text": "整整30年的最高水平",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "start": 1250.001,
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      "text": "3%的大关就在眼前",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1210805721251216e-11,
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      "text": "为什么说3%是个大关口呢",
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    {
      "start": 1255.161,
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      "text": "因为日本财务省编2026年年度预算的时候",
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      "start": 1258.961,
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      "text": "假设的利率恰好就是3%",
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    {
      "start": 1261.261,
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      "text": "市场利率要是一旦持续的去冲破这个假设",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1265.121,
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      "text": "利息预算就要重新编",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.10360421601289548,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1210805721251216e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1266.401,
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      "text": "而利息已经在飞了",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1268.581,
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      "text": "2026年年度预算里面",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1210805721251216e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1270.201,
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      "text": "日本光是国债利息一项就是13兆日元",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1210805721251216e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1273.641,
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      "text": "比上一年度多出3.7兆",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.10360421601289548,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1210805721251216e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1276.261,
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      "text": "3.7兆是个什么概念呢",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07787742504494728,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
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      "start": 1278.641,
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      "text": "这一年税收的全部增量是3兆",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07787742504494728,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1280.881,
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      "text": "也就是说通胀带来的税收的增量",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1283.841,
      "end": 1287.341,
      "text": "一年之内被利息的增量一口吃掉还不够",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07787742504494728,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1287.341,
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      "text": "这才是高市政府借钱搞投资的计划",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07787742504494728,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3486842105263157,
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    {
      "start": 1290.581,
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      "text": "被借钱本身的成本吃掉的精确版本",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07787742504494728,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3486842105263157,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1293.681,
      "end": 1296.441,
      "text": "再有一件事情就是我频道反复提到",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07787742504494728,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1296.441,
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      "text": "可以说是2026年至今",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1298.101,
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      "text": "日本经济最重磅的单一事件",
      "chunk": 2,
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    },
    {
      "start": 1300.601,
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      "text": "重磅到很多人还没有反应过来",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1427981824740918e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1302.741,
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      "text": "它意味着什么",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "text": "说了这么多",
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      "text": "重要到就连美国财政部都要亲自下场来维稳",
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      "text": "台湾大概率都是可以直接去参考借鉴或者是避免的",
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      "text": "赵立声明",
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      "text": "本期内容是资讯分享和个人分析",
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      "text": "看完之后",
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      "text": "如果您觉得不错",
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      "text": "请您点个赞",
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      "text": "我们下期再见",
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