{ "schema": "videonote.subtitle_normalize.v1", "input_cue_count": 603, "kept_cue_count": 603, "dropped_cue_count": 0, "duplicate_merged_count": 0, "overlap_repaired_count": 0, "rolling_prefix_removed_count": 0, "timing_uncertain_count": 0, "coverage_ratio": 0.949481, "gaps": [ { "start": 15.782, "end": 16.649, "seconds": 0.867 }, { "start": 231.331, "end": 231.464, "seconds": 0.133 }, { "start": 323.022, "end": 346.379, "seconds": 23.357 }, { "start": 600.333, "end": 600.8, "seconds": 0.467 }, { "start": 933.232, "end": 937.102, "seconds": 3.87 } ], "issues": [], "cues": [ { "id": 0, "start": 0.0, "end": 1.697, "text": "解密商戰今天要告訴你", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 1, "start": 1.697, "end": 3.858, "text": "SpaceX腰斬50%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 2, "start": 3.858, "end": 6.373, "text": "現在進場是接刀還是抄底呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 3, "start": 6.373, "end": 8.808, "text": "147億太空AI", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 4, "start": 8.808, "end": 11.011, "text": "會是馬斯克的世紀騙局嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 5, "start": 11.011, "end": 12.545, "text": "而大卡跑光了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 6, "start": 12.545, "end": 15.782, "text": "SpaceX會成為史上最大的泡沫嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 7, "start": 16.649, "end": 18.618, "text": "今天我們下班經濟學邀請到是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 8, "start": 18.618, "end": 20.587, "text": "財經專家阮慕驊大哥", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 9, "start": 20.587, "end": 21.354, "text": "兩位主持人好", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 10, "start": 21.354, "end": 22.255, "text": "觀眾朋友大家好", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 11, "start": 22.255, "end": 23.423, "text": "網友都在問", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 12, "start": 23.423, "end": 24.057, "text": "前一陣子買了SpaceX", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 13, "start": 24.057, "end": 25.392, "text": "前一陣子買了SpaceX", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 14, "start": 25.392, "end": 28.528, "text": "就後來發現怎麼這一陣子這麼慘烈", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 15, "start": 28.528, "end": 30.93, "text": "我一直在想一個到底發生什麼事情", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 16, "start": 30.93, "end": 32.899, "text": "市值已經掉這麼多", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 17, "start": 32.899, "end": 34.901, "text": "到底是接盤還是接刀呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 18, "start": 34.901, "end": 36.002, "text": "SpaceX的市值已經", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 19, "start": 36.002, "end": 37.537, "text": "掉掉超過1兆美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 20, "start": 37.537, "end": 38.805, "text": "就是從他的最高點", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 21, "start": 38.805, "end": 40.24, "text": "我們知道他在6月掛牌 我們知道他在6月掛牌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 22, "start": 40.24, "end": 42.776, "text": "他當時的掛牌價是135元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 23, "start": 42.776, "end": 45.078, "text": "那掛牌之後他是猛漲三天", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 24, "start": 45.078, "end": 47.68, "text": "那最高股價漲到225元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 25, "start": 47.68, "end": 49.549, "text": "這樣漲幅波段非常的大", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 26, "start": 49.549, "end": 50.216, "text": "大家都覺得說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 27, "start": 50.216, "end": 51.351, "text": "人類的太空夢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 28, "start": 51.351, "end": 52.652, "text": "火星夢終於來了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 29, "start": 52.652, "end": 54.587, "text": "就把這家公司視為是未來", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 30, "start": 54.587, "end": 56.189, "text": "人類非常重要的希望", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 31, "start": 56.189, "end": 58.291, "text": "那所以很多人抱持這樣的信仰", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 32, "start": 58.291, "end": 60.16, "text": "就進去買SpaceX的股票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 33, "start": 60.16, "end": 61.895, "text": "我想很多台灣投資人也是這樣", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 34, "start": 61.895, "end": 63.163, "text": "但是你會發現", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 35, "start": 63.163, "end": 64.097, "text": "他漲三天之後", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 36, "start": 64.097, "end": 65.765, "text": "股價從這個225塊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 37, "start": 65.765, "end": 67.1, "text": "就一路反轉向下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 38, "start": 67.1, "end": 68.334, "text": "直到我們錄影的時候", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 39, "start": 68.334, "end": 69.135, "text": "哲青你知道嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 40, "start": 69.135, "end": 71.171, "text": "他已經跌破了他IPO的價格了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 41, "start": 71.171, "end": 72.105, "text": "跌破135元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 42, "start": 72.105, "end": 73.907, "text": "差不多四成多", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 43, "start": 73.907, "end": 75.041, "text": "這麼大的一個跌幅", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 44, "start": 75.041, "end": 76.176, "text": "當然很多投資人會覺得說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 45, "start": 76.176, "end": 77.01, "text": "他到底怎麼了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 46, "start": 77.01, "end": 78.311, "text": "目前主要幾個問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 47, "start": 78.311, "end": 79.012, "text": "第一個呢就是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 48, "start": 79.012, "end": 80.58, "text": "他8月有一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 49, "start": 80.58, "end": 83.316, "text": "在IPO之前有很多早期投資人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 50, "start": 83.316, "end": 85.118, "text": "那他們的股票實際是被鎖住了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 51, "start": 85.118, "end": 85.585, "text": "他們有一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 52, "start": 85.585, "end": 86.352, "text": "閉鎖期", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 53, "start": 86.352, "end": 87.62, "text": "結果這個閉鎖期呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 54, "start": 87.62, "end": 88.822, "text": "大概有9億多股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 55, "start": 88.822, "end": 89.789, "text": "9億多", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 56, "start": 89.789, "end": 91.524, "text": "非常巨大的一筆籌碼", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 57, "start": 91.524, "end": 93.927, "text": "他會在8月開始陸續要釋出", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 58, "start": 93.927, "end": 95.395, "text": "這也使得大家有點擔心", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 59, "start": 95.395, "end": 96.963, "text": "那我們都知道那種早期投資人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 60, "start": 96.963, "end": 98.064, "text": "在IPO之前的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 61, "start": 98.064, "end": 99.732, "text": "這一批投資人呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 62, "start": 99.732, "end": 101.701, "text": "他們的成本可能非常的低", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 63, "start": 101.701, "end": 102.402, "text": "換言之", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 64, "start": 102.402, "end": 103.203, "text": "那這個9億股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 65, "start": 103.203, "end": 104.971, "text": "以現在目前100多塊的股價來講", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 66, "start": 104.971, "end": 106.639, "text": "他可能怎麼賣都是賺錢的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 67, "start": 106.639, "end": 107.874, "text": "所以大家會怕說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 68, "start": 107.874, "end": 108.942, "text": "這筆籌碼呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 69, "start": 108.942, "end": 111.077, "text": "會把SPECE X的股價再往下壓", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 70, "start": 111.077, "end": 112.312, "text": "因為他現在的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 71, "start": 112.312, "end": 114.814, "text": "這個公開流通股只有6.4億股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 72, "start": 114.814, "end": 116.015, "text": "所以9億多股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 73, "start": 116.015, "end": 117.15, "text": "等於他的現在目前的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 74, "start": 117.15, "end": 118.718, "text": "公開流通股的1.5倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 75, "start": 118.718, "end": 120.253, "text": "你說這個籌碼量大不大", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 76, "start": 120.253, "end": 120.954, "text": "非常大", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 77, "start": 120.954, "end": 121.621, "text": "所以第二個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 78, "start": 121.621, "end": 123.356, "text": "這個掛牌利多都消失了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 79, "start": 123.356, "end": 124.157, "text": "大家知道他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 80, "start": 124.157, "end": 125.859, "text": "一直在爭取那個那斯達克掛牌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 81, "start": 125.859, "end": 127.594, "text": "正式掛到那斯達克裡面去了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 82, "start": 127.594, "end": 129.028, "text": "那斯達克100指數", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 83, "start": 129.028, "end": 129.596, "text": "但是呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 84, "start": 129.596, "end": 131.331, "text": "這種所謂被動式買盤", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 85, "start": 131.331, "end": 133.166, "text": "也沒有能支撐他的股價", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 86, "start": 133.166, "end": 134.2, "text": "所以我覺得是第二個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 87, "start": 134.2, "end": 135.168, "text": "一個問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 88, "start": 135.168, "end": 136.269, "text": "第三個問題呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 89, "start": 136.269, "end": 137.47, "text": "掛牌不久之後呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 90, "start": 137.47, "end": 140.707, "text": "馬上發行了一個250億的公司債", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 91, "start": 140.707, "end": 141.741, "text": "大家想說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 92, "start": 141.741, "end": 143.243, "text": "你股票來圈錢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 93, "start": 143.243, "end": 145.044, "text": "你還要讓債券來圈錢嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 94, "start": 145.044, "end": 145.945, "text": "大家就有這樣的一個想法", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 95, "start": 145.945, "end": 147.58, "text": "就是有點負面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 96, "start": 147.58, "end": 149.516, "text": "那這250億的一個公司債", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 97, "start": 149.516, "end": 151.251, "text": "當初他發行的股息呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 98, "start": 151.251, "end": 152.152, "text": "是6.7%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 99, "start": 152.152, "end": 153.052, "text": "一發行之後呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 100, "start": 153.052, "end": 153.653, "text": "幾個禮拜", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 101, "start": 153.653, "end": 155.955, "text": "那個利率已經漲到4.7%了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 102, "start": 155.955, "end": 158.858, "text": "等於說當初買這7%的這個債券的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 103, "start": 158.858, "end": 160.693, "text": "馬上現已經現賠快10%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 104, "start": 160.693, "end": 162.061, "text": "所以這樣的情況之下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 105, "start": 162.061, "end": 162.862, "text": "你再加上最近", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 106, "start": 162.862, "end": 164.03, "text": "整個AI供應鏈", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 107, "start": 164.03, "end": 165.798, "text": "從韓國崩到台股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 108, "start": 165.798, "end": 167.367, "text": "崩到日本 崩到美國", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 109, "start": 167.367, "end": 169.702, "text": "所以整個市場氣氛也很差了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 110, "start": 169.702, "end": 171.738, "text": "再加上他有那麼多的利空情況之下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 111, "start": 171.738, "end": 173.006, "text": "利多也無法實現的情況之下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 112, "start": 173.006, "end": 174.374, "text": "利多也無法實現的情況之下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 113, "start": 174.374, "end": 175.909, "text": "當然他的股價繼續下跌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 114, "start": 175.909, "end": 177.677, "text": "我覺得是可能比較大的機率", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 115, "start": 177.677, "end": 179.812, "text": "所以說有SpaceX股票的投資人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 116, "start": 179.812, "end": 181.447, "text": "可能心裡要做一點準備", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 117, "start": 181.447, "end": 184.117, "text": "慕驊哥回到整個事情的剛開始", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 118, "start": 184.117, "end": 185.351, "text": "就是說到馬斯克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 119, "start": 185.351, "end": 188.087, "text": "他到底為什麼要讓SpaceX上市", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 120, "start": 188.087, "end": 189.355, "text": "他在打什麼算盤", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 121, "start": 189.355, "end": 189.856, "text": "瓊方你知道", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 122, "start": 189.856, "end": 191.624, "text": "他雖然是號稱首富對不對", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 123, "start": 191.624, "end": 193.626, "text": "然後SpaceX上市之後不是他講說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 124, "start": 193.626, "end": 195.762, "text": "這個世界地表第一個身價一兆", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 125, "start": 195.762, "end": 197.463, "text": "美元的男人出現了嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 126, "start": 197.463, "end": 198.131, "text": "就是講SpaceX", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 127, "start": 198.131, "end": 201.201, "text": "但大家知道他其實現金非常的缺", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 128, "start": 201.201, "end": 202.669, "text": "他其實有的是這些股票啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 129, "start": 202.669, "end": 203.97, "text": "這些都是帳面價值", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 130, "start": 203.97, "end": 205.305, "text": "比如說我們講說某個首富", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 131, "start": 205.305, "end": 207.273, "text": "他擁有的股票來計算他的身價", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 132, "start": 207.273, "end": 208.241, "text": "但哲青你知道嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 133, "start": 208.241, "end": 209.709, "text": "像台股一天會跌10%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 134, "start": 209.709, "end": 210.31, "text": "所以首富", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 135, "start": 210.31, "end": 212.845, "text": "他一天身價也可能會縮水10%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 136, "start": 212.845, "end": 214.948, "text": "所以說這些東西都很虛無飄渺", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 137, "start": 214.948, "end": 216.749, "text": "那真正的是你的流動性", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 138, "start": 216.749, "end": 217.884, "text": "你到底有多少現金", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 139, "start": 217.884, "end": 220.353, "text": "經過華爾街某些機構的推估", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 140, "start": 220.353, "end": 221.321, "text": "就馬斯克呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 141, "start": 221.321, "end": 223.623, "text": "雖然說號稱一兆身價的男人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 142, "start": 223.623, "end": 225.158, "text": "但他真正的流動性", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 143, "start": 225.158, "end": 226.859, "text": "大概只有50億美元而已", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 144, "start": 226.859, "end": 228.528, "text": "就說他其實是缺錢的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 145, "start": 228.528, "end": 229.495, "text": "各位知道嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 146, "start": 229.495, "end": 231.331, "text": "所以他這樣缺錢的情況之下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 147, "start": 231.464, "end": 233.733, "text": "他就要取得很多流動性啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 148, "start": 233.733, "end": 235.134, "text": "當然SpaceX上市呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 149, "start": 235.134, "end": 236.669, "text": "就可以讓他創造很多流動性", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 150, "start": 236.669, "end": 237.57, "text": "因為他釋出股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 151, "start": 237.57, "end": 239.038, "text": "他就可以把這些股票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 152, "start": 239.038, "end": 242.508, "text": "從帳面變成是真正的流動性", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 153, "start": 242.508, "end": 243.943, "text": "大家知道他最大燒錢是什麼嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 154, "start": 243.943, "end": 245.378, "text": "推特跟AI這兩個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 155, "start": 245.378, "end": 246.379, "text": "推特的部分", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 156, "start": 246.379, "end": 247.213, "text": "他是虧損", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 157, "start": 247.213, "end": 249.449, "text": "他一年大概要虧30億到40億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 158, "start": 249.449, "end": 251.618, "text": "他那債務利息一年十幾億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 159, "start": 251.618, "end": 253.219, "text": "所以你把他的虧損", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 160, "start": 253.219, "end": 255.221, "text": "加債務利息加起來大概50億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 161, "start": 255.221, "end": 255.955, "text": "剛剛講馬斯克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 162, "start": 255.955, "end": 257.257, "text": "能掌握的現金就50億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 163, "start": 257.257, "end": 258.324, "text": "那不就一年就燒完了嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 164, "start": 258.324, "end": 259.826, "text": "那這一塊上面呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 165, "start": 259.826, "end": 260.827, "text": "他虧50億對不對", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 166, "start": 260.827, "end": 261.628, "text": "那另外那個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 167, "start": 261.628, "end": 262.595, "text": "GROK部分虧更多", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 168, "start": 262.595, "end": 263.096, "text": "GROK部分虧更多", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 169, "start": 263.096, "end": 264.43, "text": "一個月要燒掉10億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 170, "start": 264.43, "end": 266.199, "text": "燒掉10億那一年就120億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 171, "start": 266.199, "end": 268.167, "text": "所以這兩個加起來就170億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 172, "start": 268.167, "end": 269.836, "text": "是龐大的現金支出", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 173, "start": 269.836, "end": 270.436, "text": "是每一年", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 174, "start": 270.436, "end": 271.337, "text": "每一個月都要", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 175, "start": 271.337, "end": 272.272, "text": "支出的對不對", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 176, "start": 272.272, "end": 272.905, "text": "那怎麼辦", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 177, "start": 272.905, "end": 273.439, "text": "我只好用這個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 178, "start": 273.439, "end": 274.474, "text": "這次的IPO", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 179, "start": 274.474, "end": 275.742, "text": "然後大量圈錢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 180, "start": 275.742, "end": 277.81, "text": "所以他圈錢他就要把估值做高", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 181, "start": 277.81, "end": 279.078, "text": "其實大家都很好奇", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 182, "start": 279.078, "end": 280.013, "text": "馬斯克如何", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 183, "start": 280.013, "end": 280.88, "text": "將SpaceX", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 184, "start": 280.88, "end": 283.082, "text": "他的市值從8000億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 185, "start": 283.082, "end": 284.717, "text": "然後推到1.5兆", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 186, "start": 284.717, "end": 286.386, "text": "他知道說如果還是Starlink", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 187, "start": 286.386, "end": 288.655, "text": "跟火箭發射業務上市的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 188, "start": 288.655, "end": 289.722, "text": "那這一塊呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 189, "start": 289.722, "end": 291.424, "text": "他的估值只能做到8,000億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 190, "start": 291.424, "end": 292.992, "text": "所以他就用這個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 191, "start": 292.992, "end": 293.96, "text": "Starlink跟", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 192, "start": 293.96, "end": 295.662, "text": "火箭發射業務的這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 193, "start": 295.662, "end": 297.53, "text": "去收購了XAI", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 194, "start": 297.53, "end": 298.731, "text": "那收購之後呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 195, "start": 298.731, "end": 301.334, "text": "就把他的估值搞到1.5兆美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 196, "start": 301.334, "end": 303.603, "text": "本來他只能圈到168億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 197, "start": 303.603, "end": 305.605, "text": "一下可以搞到圈到350億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 198, "start": 305.605, "end": 307.073, "text": "我們剛剛講說他一年", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 199, "start": 307.073, "end": 308.541, "text": "Twitter加上GROK", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 200, "start": 308.541, "end": 310.51, "text": "就是AI的部分要燒170億嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 201, "start": 310.51, "end": 312.578, "text": "他這樣至少可以燒兩年", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 202, "start": 312.578, "end": 314.147, "text": "所以兩年現金有了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 203, "start": 314.147, "end": 315.148, "text": "他就安了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 204, "start": 315.148, "end": 316.516, "text": "所以這基本上", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 205, "start": 316.516, "end": 318.351, "text": "就是我們講華爾街的套路了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 206, "start": 318.351, "end": 319.952, "text": "就把估值做漂亮", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 207, "start": 319.952, "end": 321.154, "text": "然後呢 打包上市", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 208, "start": 321.154, "end": 322.522, "text": "然後讓投資人去買單", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 209, "start": 322.522, "end": 323.022, "text": "就是這樣子", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 210, "start": 346.379, "end": 348.881, "text": "那另外就是在他的這個招股書裡面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 211, "start": 348.881, "end": 350.95, "text": "就發現很罕見的條款", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 212, "start": 350.95, "end": 353.986, "text": "就是說當馬斯克他本人沒有點頭的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 213, "start": 353.986, "end": 355.355, "text": "任何人都不能夠罷免", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 214, "start": 355.355, "end": 356.989, "text": "他的執行長職位", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 215, "start": 356.989, "end": 357.99, "text": "所以大家就在看說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 216, "start": 357.99, "end": 358.991, "text": "他真的是一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 217, "start": 358.991, "end": 360.46, "text": "控制慾很強的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 218, "start": 360.46, "end": 361.861, "text": "那是不是跟他過去的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 219, "start": 361.861, "end": 363.096, "text": "一些歷史也有關", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 220, "start": 363.096, "end": 365.665, "text": "他是一個絕對要掌控全局的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 221, "start": 365.665, "end": 368.067, "text": "他絕對不能讓董事會掌控他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 222, "start": 368.067, "end": 369.902, "text": "他一定要讓他掌控董事會", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 223, "start": 369.902, "end": 371.537, "text": "因為他過去有幾個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 224, "start": 371.537, "end": 373.139, "text": "在股權上不愉快的經驗", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 225, "start": 373.139, "end": 375.575, "text": "比如說他最近紐約一個世紀的訴訟", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 226, "start": 375.575, "end": 377.176, "text": "馬斯克去告OpenAI", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 227, "start": 377.176, "end": 378.511, "text": "當初的股權的問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 228, "start": 378.511, "end": 379.612, "text": "經營權的問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 229, "start": 379.612, "end": 380.613, "text": "另外就是PayPal", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 230, "start": 380.613, "end": 381.481, "text": "他後來PayPal他也是被掃地出門", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 231, "start": 381.481, "end": 382.415, "text": "他後來PayPal他也是被掃地出門", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 232, "start": 382.415, "end": 384.016, "text": "所以說這兩個讓他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 233, "start": 384.016, "end": 385.918, "text": "後面所有像特斯拉", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 234, "start": 385.918, "end": 387.887, "text": "像是SpaceX", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 235, "start": 387.887, "end": 390.957, "text": "他都要絕對絕對掌握他的控制權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 236, "start": 390.957, "end": 392.525, "text": "所以他基本上他是一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 237, "start": 392.525, "end": 394.06, "text": "認為他就是全世界最有POWER", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 238, "start": 394.06, "end": 394.994, "text": "然後最有錢的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 239, "start": 394.994, "end": 396.629, "text": "他就是要掌控公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 240, "start": 396.629, "end": 398.197, "text": "他怎麼可能讓董事會把他掃地出門", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 241, "start": 398.197, "end": 400.032, "text": "所以他在這次的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 242, "start": 400.032, "end": 401.467, "text": "IPO他的招股書上", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 243, "start": 401.467, "end": 403.503, "text": "就設計了一些非常重要的條款", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 244, "start": 403.503, "end": 405.538, "text": "股票的三種股權的方式", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 245, "start": 405.538, "end": 406.839, "text": "我們叫同股不同權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 246, "start": 406.839, "end": 408.341, "text": "就是為了保護經營方", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 247, "start": 408.341, "end": 409.776, "text": "他分ABC三種", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 248, "start": 409.776, "end": 410.476, "text": "A股呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 249, "start": 410.476, "end": 411.444, "text": "就是一股一票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 250, "start": 411.444, "end": 412.345, "text": "那B股呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 251, "start": 412.345, "end": 413.913, "text": "就是一股十票哦", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 252, "start": 413.913, "end": 414.914, "text": "一股十票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 253, "start": 414.914, "end": 416.082, "text": "對 然後C股是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 254, "start": 416.082, "end": 416.783, "text": "0票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 255, "start": 416.783, "end": 418.317, "text": "就是完全沒有投票權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 256, "start": 418.317, "end": 420.453, "text": "那他這次釋出了6.4億股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 257, "start": 420.453, "end": 421.821, "text": "都是A股就是一股一票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 258, "start": 421.821, "end": 425.191, "text": "但是馬斯克他自己本身擁有93%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 259, "start": 425.191, "end": 427.126, "text": "接近94%的B股的股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 260, "start": 427.126, "end": 428.961, "text": "任何的流通股的釋出", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 261, "start": 428.961, "end": 430.263, "text": "都無法撼動他的股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 262, "start": 430.263, "end": 431.597, "text": "所以他現在目前的整個公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 263, "start": 431.597, "end": 433.466, "text": "有投票的股權比例呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 264, "start": 433.466, "end": 435.168, "text": "大概降到85%左右", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 265, "start": 435.168, "end": 436.035, "text": "但是還是非常高", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 266, "start": 436.035, "end": 437.937, "text": "還是絕對控制公司的一個情況", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 267, "start": 437.937, "end": 440.173, "text": "那另外還有在這個招股書上面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 268, "start": 440.173, "end": 441.874, "text": "設計了一個非常有趣的條件", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 269, "start": 441.874, "end": 442.742, "text": "叫MOONSHOT", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 270, "start": 442.742, "end": 445.144, "text": "畫大餅的有關股權的控制", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 271, "start": 445.144, "end": 445.945, "text": "那他分兩個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 272, "start": 445.945, "end": 447.146, "text": "第一個呢就是說呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 273, "start": 447.146, "end": 448.948, "text": "他先把這個公司的估值", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 274, "start": 448.948, "end": 450.149, "text": "搞到一個非常誇張的情況", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 275, "start": 450.149, "end": 451.25, "text": "比如說就是我可以在", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 276, "start": 451.25, "end": 454.654, "text": "火星上面建立一個人類移民的基地", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 277, "start": 454.654, "end": 456.956, "text": "然後會有100萬的居民在那邊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 278, "start": 456.956, "end": 459.125, "text": "他說那這個到7.5兆美元的估值", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 279, "start": 459.125, "end": 461.227, "text": "比NVIDIA的估值還要高啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 280, "start": 461.227, "end": 462.895, "text": "另外就是在太空建立", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 281, "start": 462.895, "end": 464.197, "text": "這個AI算力中心", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 282, "start": 464.197, "end": 465.698, "text": "100太瓦這個Dream", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 283, "start": 465.698, "end": 468.367, "text": "企圖把他的估值做到6.5兆美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 284, "start": 468.367, "end": 469.302, "text": "大家就覺得說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 285, "start": 469.302, "end": 471.17, "text": "那都達不到這些目標啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 286, "start": 471.17, "end": 472.004, "text": "那你是不是拿不到股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 287, "start": 472.004, "end": 472.672, "text": "錯", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 288, "start": 472.672, "end": 474.173, "text": "達不到目標不重要", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 289, "start": 474.173, "end": 475.908, "text": "重要的是我告訴大家", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 290, "start": 475.908, "end": 477.51, "text": "我要執行這些計劃之前", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 291, "start": 477.51, "end": 479.312, "text": "我就可以擁有這些股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 292, "start": 479.312, "end": 481.781, "text": "所以他也有這樣子一個13.2億的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 293, "start": 481.781, "end": 482.748, "text": "B股的股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 294, "start": 482.748, "end": 484.083, "text": "你說妙不妙", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 295, "start": 484.083, "end": 486.319, "text": "就在招股書上面公開的告訴大家", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 296, "start": 486.319, "end": 486.853, "text": "馬斯克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 297, "start": 486.853, "end": 489.455, "text": "他其實用了很多的心機跟方法", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 298, "start": 489.455, "end": 491.19, "text": "法律的這個條款呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 299, "start": 491.19, "end": 493.025, "text": "去讓大家都知道說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 300, "start": 493.025, "end": 493.926, "text": "他絕對擁有這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 301, "start": 493.926, "end": 495.061, "text": "絕對無法撼動", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 302, "start": 495.061, "end": 497.53, "text": "所以他就永遠掌控這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 303, "start": 497.53, "end": 498.831, "text": "就是這樣的一個情況", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 304, "start": 498.831, "end": 500.5, "text": "其實慕驊哥我們要投資一家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 305, "start": 500.5, "end": 503.769, "text": "最主要還是要了解他的業務範圍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 306, "start": 503.769, "end": 505.771, "text": "還有他用什麼來賺錢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 307, "start": 505.771, "end": 507.273, "text": "可以幫我們來分析一下", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 308, "start": 507.273, "end": 509.242, "text": "SpaceX他的業務到底是什麼", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 309, "start": 509.242, "end": 511.477, "text": "那華爾街很多這個投資大咖", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 310, "start": 511.477, "end": 514.413, "text": "他們對這家公司持負面的批評", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 311, "start": 514.413, "end": 515.448, "text": "主要原因是什麼", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 312, "start": 515.448, "end": 517.383, "text": "就是我們在財務報表上面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 313, "start": 517.383, "end": 519.318, "text": "或者說我們在做一家公司的評估", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 314, "start": 519.318, "end": 520.152, "text": "會用一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 315, "start": 520.152, "end": 522.054, "text": "一家公司到底他的市值多少", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 316, "start": 522.054, "end": 524.357, "text": "跟他的營收多少去做比喻", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 317, "start": 524.357, "end": 525.625, "text": "那比如說台積電的市值很高", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 318, "start": 525.625, "end": 526.826, "text": "但他的營收也很高啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 319, "start": 526.826, "end": 528.094, "text": "那這個營收市值比", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 320, "start": 528.094, "end": 528.661, "text": "就可以算出來", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 321, "start": 528.661, "end": 530.229, "text": "一家公司真正的價值對不對", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 322, "start": 530.229, "end": 532.064, "text": "就是在這個方面去算他價值", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 323, "start": 532.064, "end": 533.299, "text": "你知道SpaceX的營收", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 324, "start": 533.299, "end": 534.233, "text": "營收市值比是多少嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 325, "start": 534.233, "end": 535.401, "text": "120倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 326, "start": 535.401, "end": 536.002, "text": "120倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 327, "start": 536.002, "end": 538.17, "text": "就他的市值是他的營收的120倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 328, "start": 538.17, "end": 539.138, "text": "驚人到這種地步", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 329, "start": 539.138, "end": 540.973, "text": "因為 他一年的營收也就是200億美元左右", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 330, "start": 540.973, "end": 541.507, "text": "那其中60%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 331, "start": 541.507, "end": 542.542, "text": "那其中60%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 332, "start": 542.542, "end": 543.743, "text": "就是Starlink的部分", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 333, "start": 543.743, "end": 544.977, "text": "一年100多億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 334, "start": 544.977, "end": 546.546, "text": "大概可以賺到四五十億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 335, "start": 546.546, "end": 547.98, "text": "這個真的是非常賺錢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 336, "start": 547.98, "end": 549.448, "text": "他的金雞母", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 337, "start": 549.448, "end": 550.816, "text": "因為全世界", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 338, "start": 550.816, "end": 553.486, "text": "164個國家用低軌衛星", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 339, "start": 553.486, "end": 554.52, "text": "有1000多個客戶", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 340, "start": 554.52, "end": 556.122, "text": "而且他成長幅度非常的大", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 341, "start": 556.122, "end": 557.023, "text": "偏遠地區啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 342, "start": 557.023, "end": 557.79, "text": "或者戰爭啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 343, "start": 557.79, "end": 558.324, "text": "導航啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 344, "start": 558.324, "end": 558.958, "text": "各方面啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 345, "start": 558.958, "end": 559.725, "text": "反正anyway", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 346, "start": 559.725, "end": 561.394, "text": "很多需求都需要用到他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 347, "start": 561.394, "end": 562.795, "text": "用到這個低軌衛星", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 348, "start": 562.795, "end": 564.33, "text": "你在海上走的時候郵輪", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 349, "start": 564.33, "end": 565.798, "text": "你要透過衛星打電話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 350, "start": 565.798, "end": 567.934, "text": "所以郵輪上面的WiFi非常貴", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 351, "start": 567.934, "end": 569.001, "text": "所以說是這樣", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 352, "start": 569.001, "end": 569.502, "text": "大家都知道", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 353, "start": 569.502, "end": 571.07, "text": "因為郵輪上面沒有基地臺啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 354, "start": 571.07, "end": 572.772, "text": "那你怎麼去通訊呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 355, "start": 572.772, "end": 574.173, "text": "所以這些都要用到低軌衛星", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 356, "start": 574.173, "end": 576.509, "text": "所以他這項業務真的是非常厲害", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 357, "start": 576.509, "end": 578.811, "text": "他有一萬顆的衛星在天空上面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 358, "start": 578.811, "end": 580.246, "text": "而且每年還在持續發射", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 359, "start": 580.246, "end": 582.848, "text": "那低軌都被他佔滿了那個位置了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 360, "start": 582.848, "end": 584.617, "text": "就是沒有人可以跟他競爭", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 361, "start": 584.617, "end": 585.351, "text": "這樣的一個情況", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 362, "start": 585.351, "end": 586.218, "text": "很厲害", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 363, "start": 586.218, "end": 587.587, "text": "另外一個就是火箭發射業務", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 364, "start": 587.587, "end": 588.487, "text": "我剛剛講火箭就三種", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 365, "start": 588.487, "end": 589.188, "text": "最新的就那個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 366, "start": 589.188, "end": 590.99, "text": "最大型的星艦", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 367, "start": 590.99, "end": 591.657, "text": "第二個呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 368, "start": 591.657, "end": 593.192, "text": "就是他之前的Falcon 9", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 369, "start": 593.192, "end": 594.46, "text": "獵鷹9號", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 370, "start": 594.46, "end": 596.128, "text": "還有Dragon 天龍號", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 371, "start": 596.128, "end": 597.93, "text": "一年的這個發射業務", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 372, "start": 597.93, "end": 598.831, "text": "帶來營收", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 373, "start": 598.831, "end": 600.333, "text": "大概五六十億美元吧", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 374, "start": 600.8, "end": 601.867, "text": "所以這兩塊加起來", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 375, "start": 601.867, "end": 603.135, "text": "其實就是接近200億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 376, "start": 603.135, "end": 604.37, "text": "另外第三個呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 377, "start": 604.37, "end": 607.173, "text": "就大概佔他17%營收的AI業務", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 378, "start": 607.173, "end": 608.608, "text": "那這一塊其實是最大的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 379, "start": 608.608, "end": 610.209, "text": "那個賠錢貨", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 380, "start": 610.209, "end": 611.611, "text": "營收很低", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 381, "start": 611.611, "end": 612.878, "text": "他又虧損連連", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 382, "start": 612.878, "end": 614.347, "text": "還有重大的資本支出", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 383, "start": 614.347, "end": 615.948, "text": "他今年第一季AI資本支出", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 384, "start": 615.948, "end": 616.916, "text": "77億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 385, "start": 616.916, "end": 618.351, "text": "你想看怎麼燒錢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 386, "start": 618.351, "end": 620.186, "text": "是 沒有錢怎麼燒嘛", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 387, "start": 620.186, "end": 621.821, "text": "所以說這家公司要賺錢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 388, "start": 621.821, "end": 622.855, "text": "我認為非常困難", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 389, "start": 622.855, "end": 623.422, "text": "對", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 390, "start": 623.422, "end": 624.59, "text": "可是慕驊跟我們說到", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 391, "start": 624.59, "end": 626.692, "text": "這個SpaceX上市的時候", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 392, "start": 626.692, "end": 628.594, "text": "為什麼美國的那斯達克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 393, "start": 628.594, "end": 630.096, "text": "可以破例的為他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 394, "start": 630.096, "end": 631.597, "text": "專門為他去修改", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 395, "start": 631.597, "end": 632.965, "text": "所謂的遊戲規則", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 396, "start": 632.965, "end": 633.933, "text": "我覺得這件事情", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 397, "start": 633.933, "end": 635.401, "text": "也是被大家一直在討論的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 398, "start": 635.401, "end": 637.203, "text": "我覺得馬斯克這個人太有power", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 399, "start": 637.203, "end": 639.171, "text": "而且他的影響力太大", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 400, "start": 639.171, "end": 640.339, "text": "他的政商關係", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 401, "start": 640.339, "end": 641.44, "text": "他的人脈網絡", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 402, "start": 641.44, "end": 643.442, "text": "其實可能遠非我們所能想像", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 403, "start": 643.442, "end": 645.945, "text": "美國政府也把SpaceX這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 404, "start": 645.945, "end": 646.846, "text": "視為是一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 405, "start": 646.846, "end": 648.347, "text": "很重要的戰略公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 406, "start": 648.347, "end": 649.148, "text": "因為他們認為說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 407, "start": 649.148, "end": 650.249, "text": "美國一定要在全世界的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 408, "start": 650.249, "end": 651.517, "text": "太空科技上面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 409, "start": 651.517, "end": 652.418, "text": "領先中國", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 410, "start": 652.418, "end": 653.252, "text": "領先俄羅斯", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 411, "start": 653.252, "end": 654.253, "text": "他是全世界NO.1", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 412, "start": 654.253, "end": 656.889, "text": "他一定要在太空裡面變成是老大", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 413, "start": 656.889, "end": 658.09, "text": "所以他就把這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 414, "start": 658.09, "end": 660.092, "text": "認為是一家非常重要的戰略公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 415, "start": 660.092, "end": 661.627, "text": "所以在標普500啦", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 416, "start": 661.627, "end": 662.228, "text": "在那斯達克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 417, "start": 662.228, "end": 663.629, "text": "我覺得他們都會做一些特例", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 418, "start": 663.629, "end": 664.363, "text": "通融他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 419, "start": 664.363, "end": 665.865, "text": "比如說我們講他很快的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 420, "start": 665.865, "end": 667.833, "text": "就是在那斯達克100指數掛牌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 421, "start": 667.833, "end": 669.235, "text": "其實這是完全", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 422, "start": 669.235, "end": 670.87, "text": "顛覆了那斯達克的規則", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 423, "start": 670.87, "end": 671.971, "text": "掛牌規則", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 424, "start": 671.971, "end": 673.305, "text": "因為那斯達克有幾個掛牌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 425, "start": 673.305, "end": 674.006, "text": "規則很重要", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 426, "start": 674.006, "end": 674.807, "text": "第一個就是他的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 427, "start": 674.807, "end": 675.775, "text": "股價觀察期", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 428, "start": 675.775, "end": 677.775, "text": "一般公司要真正掛在那斯達克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 429, "start": 677.775, "end": 679.578, "text": "他至少要開始交易三個月", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 430, "start": 679.578, "end": 680.88, "text": "然後他去觀察他的股價之後", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 431, "start": 680.88, "end": 681.614, "text": "他才會讓他", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 432, "start": 681.614, "end": 682.114, "text": "同意", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 433, "start": 682.114, "end": 683.315, "text": "之後才會放在那斯達克指數里面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 434, "start": 683.315, "end": 685.317, "text": "但他15天就上市了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 435, "start": 685.317, "end": 687.153, "text": "掛那斯達克100指數了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 436, "start": 687.153, "end": 687.82, "text": "第二個就是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 437, "start": 687.82, "end": 688.354, "text": "那斯達克", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 438, "start": 688.354, "end": 689.922, "text": "股票的自由流通量要", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 439, "start": 689.922, "end": 691.557, "text": "佔一家公司的10%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 440, "start": 691.557, "end": 693.225, "text": "我們都知道其實SpaceX", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 441, "start": 693.225, "end": 694.927, "text": "真的IPO的時候流通量", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 442, "start": 694.927, "end": 695.928, "text": "只有5%而已", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 443, "start": 695.928, "end": 697.196, "text": "他就6.4億股", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 444, "start": 697.196, "end": 697.963, "text": "其實很低", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 445, "start": 697.963, "end": 699.498, "text": "但達不到這個規格還是讓他掛牌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 446, "start": 699.498, "end": 700.7, "text": "第三個就是他有一個", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 447, "start": 700.7, "end": 702.735, "text": "三倍大的股權放大遊戲規則", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 448, "start": 702.735, "end": 705.204, "text": "什麼叫三倍股權放大呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 449, "start": 705.204, "end": 707.473, "text": "那斯達克有一個很有趣的規定", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 450, "start": 707.473, "end": 709.375, "text": "低於20%的一個自由流通公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 451, "start": 709.375, "end": 711.21, "text": "他會讓他的股權", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 452, "start": 711.21, "end": 712.545, "text": "去放大三倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 453, "start": 712.545, "end": 714.48, "text": "就會造成一些被動式的ETF", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 454, "start": 714.48, "end": 715.715, "text": "要去買進他的股票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 455, "start": 715.715, "end": 716.949, "text": "因為他被放大三倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 456, "start": 716.949, "end": 717.95, "text": "因為我們都知道", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 457, "start": 717.95, "end": 719.318, "text": "SpaceX IPO的流通", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 458, "start": 719.318, "end": 721.721, "text": "佔他的整個股數的5%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 459, "start": 721.721, "end": 722.555, "text": "低於20%", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 460, "start": 722.555, "end": 723.889, "text": "所以說他可以放大三倍", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 461, "start": 723.889, "end": 725.257, "text": "他就變成15%的權重", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 462, "start": 725.257, "end": 727.693, "text": "這些ETF就會去買到15%的權重", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 463, "start": 727.693, "end": 728.694, "text": "所以這就是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 464, "start": 728.694, "end": 730.429, "text": "那斯達克被大家講說", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 465, "start": 730.429, "end": 731.13, "text": "你怎麼會是這個顛覆", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 466, "start": 731.13, "end": 732.898, "text": "老祖宗定下來遊戲規則呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 467, "start": 732.898, "end": 734.934, "text": "你是不是為了這個馬斯克開後門呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 468, "start": 734.934, "end": 735.568, "text": "我覺得是的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 469, "start": 735.568, "end": 736.869, "text": "那為什麼呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 470, "start": 736.869, "end": 738.704, "text": "因為我剛剛講了他的地位不一樣", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 471, "start": 738.704, "end": 741.307, "text": "他的個人的政商網絡關係", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 472, "start": 741.307, "end": 742.608, "text": "跟他川普的關係啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 473, "start": 742.608, "end": 743.843, "text": "各方面他的影響力啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 474, "start": 743.843, "end": 745.911, "text": "還有這家公司的地位不一樣", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 475, "start": 745.911, "end": 748.647, "text": "為什麼他一定要搶在OpenAI之前", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 476, "start": 748.647, "end": 749.548, "text": "先去上市", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 477, "start": 749.548, "end": 750.282, "text": "第一個呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 478, "start": 750.282, "end": 751.751, "text": "他就是跟那個Sam Altman", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 479, "start": 751.751, "end": 753.185, "text": "兩個人是仇人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 480, "start": 753.185, "end": 754.42, "text": "如果有個擂臺的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 481, "start": 754.42, "end": 755.855, "text": "我相信他們兩個人應該會在上面", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 482, "start": 755.855, "end": 756.956, "text": "進行那個格鬥賽吧", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 483, "start": 756.956, "end": 757.69, "text": "哈哈", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 484, "start": 757.69, "end": 759.992, "text": "兩個人真的是一個超級大仇人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 485, "start": 759.992, "end": 761.761, "text": "他直接在紐約告他啦", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 486, "start": 761.761, "end": 763.662, "text": "所以我覺得他絕對不可能讓", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 487, "start": 763.662, "end": 764.563, "text": "他的公司呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 488, "start": 764.563, "end": 766.398, "text": "在這個OpenAI之後上市啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 489, "start": 766.398, "end": 768.033, "text": "這是面子問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 490, "start": 768.033, "end": 769.735, "text": "另外裡子的問題很重要", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 491, "start": 769.735, "end": 770.536, "text": "裡子的問題呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 492, "start": 770.536, "end": 771.804, "text": "其實還是真正關鍵", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 493, "start": 771.804, "end": 772.705, "text": "如果你讓OpenAI", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 494, "start": 772.705, "end": 774.273, "text": "搶先在前面上市的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 495, "start": 774.273, "end": 776.442, "text": "對未來SpaceX要上市非常不利", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 496, "start": 776.442, "end": 778.21, "text": "因為市場上面的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 497, "start": 778.21, "end": 779.645, "text": "這個會計準則啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 498, "start": 779.645, "end": 780.88, "text": "GAAP的一些會計準則", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 499, "start": 780.88, "end": 783.616, "text": "會以OpenAI這家公司的AI的業務", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 500, "start": 783.616, "end": 785.184, "text": "他的財報去做準則", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 501, "start": 785.184, "end": 787.486, "text": "也就是說變成OpenAI的標準", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 502, "start": 787.486, "end": 788.921, "text": "SpaceX的XAI", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 503, "start": 788.921, "end": 791.524, "text": "財報是輸給這個OpenAI輸很多的", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 504, "start": 791.524, "end": 793.692, "text": "雖然說OpenAI財報也不真的很好", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 505, "start": 793.692, "end": 795.261, "text": "但是他更差", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 506, "start": 795.261, "end": 796.328, "text": "所以如果他要用", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 507, "start": 796.328, "end": 798.13, "text": "OpenAI的這個會計準則的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 508, "start": 798.13, "end": 799.265, "text": "那鐵定完蛋了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 509, "start": 799.265, "end": 800.733, "text": "他鐵定估值做不起來了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 510, "start": 800.733, "end": 802.101, "text": "所以他一定要搶先", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 511, "start": 802.101, "end": 802.902, "text": "所以我覺得", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 512, "start": 802.902, "end": 804.537, "text": "這才是一個真正裡子的問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 513, "start": 804.537, "end": 807.006, "text": "就是說他絕對不能落後OpenAI", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 514, "start": 807.006, "end": 807.673, "text": "第一個呢", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 515, "start": 807.673, "end": 809.508, "text": "現在目前的市場錢也有限", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 516, "start": 809.508, "end": 811.911, "text": "他的那個IPO是740億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 517, "start": 811.911, "end": 814.78, "text": "740億的IPO的金額是史上第一", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 518, "start": 814.78, "end": 817.75, "text": "沒有一家公司可以到740億", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 519, "start": 817.75, "end": 818.818, "text": "SK海力士", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 520, "start": 818.818, "end": 821.287, "text": "如日中天到紐約去掛牌", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 521, "start": 821.287, "end": 823.455, "text": "他的IPO也160億而已啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 522, "start": 823.455, "end": 825.357, "text": "你看他可以做到740億美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 523, "start": 825.357, "end": 827.193, "text": "那市場的錢都被他圈完了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 524, "start": 827.193, "end": 829.595, "text": "如果他OpenAI先讓他前面上市的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 525, "start": 829.595, "end": 830.563, "text": "錢被OpenAI圈走了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 526, "start": 830.563, "end": 831.297, "text": "他圈什麼", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 527, "start": 831.297, "end": 833.399, "text": "所以大家當然要比快啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 528, "start": 833.399, "end": 835.067, "text": "但他也厲害的是什麼", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 529, "start": 835.067, "end": 836.602, "text": "在美國上市其實有很多", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 530, "start": 836.602, "end": 838.003, "text": "交易所的審查法規", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 531, "start": 838.003, "end": 840.973, "text": "所以他也能真的能突破這些法規啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 532, "start": 840.973, "end": 842.308, "text": "然後會計的財報啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 533, "start": 842.308, "end": 843.409, "text": "各方面啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 534, "start": 843.409, "end": 844.31, "text": "我覺得他也是有", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 535, "start": 844.31, "end": 846.645, "text": "真的讓市場買單的一些東西", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 536, "start": 846.645, "end": 848.781, "text": "所以說也不能說他是沒有條件的上市", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 537, "start": 848.781, "end": 849.615, "text": "我覺得這也不對", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 538, "start": 849.615, "end": 851.717, "text": "他其實也是一家非常有條件的公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 539, "start": 851.717, "end": 854.119, "text": "只是說公司不會賺錢這是一個問題", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 540, "start": 854.119, "end": 855.921, "text": "而且現在看到他的股價", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 541, "start": 855.921, "end": 858.123, "text": "一路像溜滑梯這樣子滑下去", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 542, "start": 858.123, "end": 860.192, "text": "市場上也開始出現一些聲音", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 543, "start": 860.192, "end": 861.527, "text": "就說有沒有可能", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 544, "start": 861.527, "end": 864.63, "text": "SpaceX變成一個最瘋狂的泡沫", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 545, "start": 864.63, "end": 866.632, "text": "他的那個火星移民計劃", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 546, "start": 866.632, "end": 868.0, "text": "要真正實現啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 547, "start": 868.0, "end": 869.368, "text": "我不知道要到幾年後", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 548, "start": 869.368, "end": 871.337, "text": "第二個 AI 算力中心這件事情", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 549, "start": 871.337, "end": 872.872, "text": "我覺得他其實很會鋪哏", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 550, "start": 872.872, "end": 874.907, "text": "他其實早就在半年前", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 551, "start": 874.907, "end": 876.242, "text": "就開始鋪這個哏了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 552, "start": 876.242, "end": 878.677, "text": "然後這個哏一路鋪到他IPO", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 553, "start": 878.677, "end": 880.346, "text": "所以我覺得馬斯克這個人是非常", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 554, "start": 880.346, "end": 882.948, "text": "精於精打細算鋪哏的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 555, "start": 882.948, "end": 885.351, "text": "也會營造題材跟市場氣氛", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 556, "start": 885.351, "end": 886.252, "text": "抓住時機的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 557, "start": 886.252, "end": 887.186, "text": "至於說這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 558, "start": 887.186, "end": 888.12, "text": "會不會是一個泡沫", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 559, "start": 888.12, "end": 889.889, "text": "我覺得他現在就是泡沫了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 560, "start": 889.889, "end": 890.89, "text": "他不是未來的泡沫", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 561, "start": 890.89, "end": 891.49, "text": "他不用等到未來", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 562, "start": 891.49, "end": 892.057, "text": "現在就是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 563, "start": 892.057, "end": 893.659, "text": "他已經從225美元", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 564, "start": 893.659, "end": 894.76, "text": "跌掉了50%了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 565, "start": 894.76, "end": 895.527, "text": "股價在高點", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 566, "start": 895.527, "end": 897.096, "text": "220美元那個地方去買進", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 567, "start": 897.096, "end": 898.097, "text": "那就是泡沫了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 568, "start": 898.097, "end": 899.465, "text": "那再加上這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 569, "start": 899.465, "end": 900.466, "text": "市值營收比還是非常高", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 570, "start": 900.466, "end": 901.734, "text": "市值營收比還是非常高", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 571, "start": 901.734, "end": 904.203, "text": "假設說他的營收不能快速成長", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 572, "start": 904.203, "end": 907.239, "text": "他這家公司不能真正實現盈利的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 573, "start": 907.239, "end": 908.04, "text": "我請問大家", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 574, "start": 908.04, "end": 909.341, "text": "你買了這家公司", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 575, "start": 909.341, "end": 910.476, "text": "你也拿不到股息", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 576, "start": 910.476, "end": 911.51, "text": "那你期待什麼", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 577, "start": 911.51, "end": 913.746, "text": "你期待他股價很大幅成長嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 578, "start": 913.746, "end": 915.147, "text": "你期待他有真正", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 579, "start": 915.147, "end": 916.015, "text": "火星發射", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 580, "start": 916.015, "end": 917.049, "text": "火星移民嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 581, "start": 917.049, "end": 918.55, "text": "你期待真的太空算力", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 582, "start": 918.55, "end": 919.485, "text": "有到100太瓦嗎", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 583, "start": 919.485, "end": 921.82, "text": "如果你真的是信仰太空科技的話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 584, "start": 921.82, "end": 923.923, "text": "你真的對人類未來的太空發展", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 585, "start": 923.923, "end": 925.357, "text": "那種夢想幻想的人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 586, "start": 925.357, "end": 926.525, "text": "偉大崇高理想人", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 587, "start": 926.525, "end": 927.693, "text": "我覺得買一點是可以", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 588, "start": 927.693, "end": 929.728, "text": "但是你不要寄望說這檔股票", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 589, "start": 929.728, "end": 931.864, "text": "你可以在上面賺多少錢啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 590, "start": 931.864, "end": 933.232, "text": "那其實我覺得說拉回來", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 591, "start": 937.102, "end": 937.603, "text": "是", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 592, "start": 937.603, "end": 939.038, "text": "你知道以前哥倫布啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 593, "start": 939.038, "end": 940.439, "text": "他們在航海日誌上", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 594, "start": 940.439, "end": 942.308, "text": "他穿過大西洋的時候", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 595, "start": 942.308, "end": 943.475, "text": "因為他進入到地圖", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 596, "start": 943.475, "end": 944.743, "text": "沒有人去過的地方", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 597, "start": 944.743, "end": 947.179, "text": "他每天只在航海日誌上寫一句話", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 598, "start": 947.179, "end": 950.382, "text": "今天方向西南西 繼續前進", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 599, "start": 950.382, "end": 951.717, "text": "他不知道前面有什麼東西啊", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 600, "start": 951.717, "end": 953.218, "text": "來我們就要繼續前進了", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 601, "start": 953.218, "end": 954.486, "text": "謝謝慕驊哥", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false }, { "id": 602, "start": 954.486, "end": 955.387, "text": "謝謝大家 謝謝", "source": "source_caption", "timing_uncertain": false } ] }