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      "start": 154.3,
      "end": 155.766,
      "text": "AI研究机构Epoch AI",
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    {
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      "start": 155.766,
      "end": 157.566,
      "text": "在今年6月的一篇报告里面",
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    },
    {
      "id": 66,
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      "end": 158.933,
      "text": "就做了一次推演",
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    },
    {
      "id": 67,
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      "end": 161.566,
      "text": "把这五家的经营现金流和资本开支",
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    },
    {
      "id": 68,
      "start": 161.566,
      "end": 164.9,
      "text": "各自按2023年以来的趋势往后延",
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    },
    {
      "id": 69,
      "start": 164.9,
      "end": 167.433,
      "text": "经营现金流每年增长大约23%",
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    },
    {
      "id": 70,
      "start": 167.433,
      "end": 170.233,
      "text": "而资本开支每年增长大约70%",
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    },
    {
      "id": 71,
      "start": 170.233,
      "end": 173.433,
      "text": "那么这两条线会在今年第三季度交叉",
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    },
    {
      "id": 72,
      "start": 173.433,
      "end": 175.233,
      "text": "也就是说在2027年前",
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    },
    {
      "id": 73,
      "start": 175.233,
      "end": 178.266,
      "text": "如果科技巨头还是按现有的速度花钱",
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    },
    {
      "id": 74,
      "start": 178.266,
      "end": 180.766,
      "text": "它们将在明年就会“集体返贫”",
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    },
    {
      "id": 75,
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      "end": 182.4,
      "text": "回到亏损时代",
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    {
      "id": 76,
      "start": 182.4,
      "end": 184.066,
      "text": "所以这些公司面临的问题",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 77,
      "start": 184.066,
      "end": 185.966,
      "text": "是钱来得不够快",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 78,
      "start": 185.966,
      "end": 187.433,
      "text": "根据摩根士丹利的测算",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 79,
      "start": 187.433,
      "end": 190.033,
      "text": "2028年前全球数据中心资本开支",
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    },
    {
      "id": 80,
      "start": 190.033,
      "end": 191.6,
      "text": "大约2.9万亿美元",
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    },
    {
      "id": 81,
      "start": 191.6,
      "end": 193.0,
      "text": "其中大约1.4万亿",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 82,
      "start": 193.0,
      "end": 195.866,
      "text": "可由超大规模厂商的现金流覆盖",
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    },
    {
      "id": 83,
      "start": 195.866,
      "end": 197.733,
      "text": "而剩下的大约1.5万亿",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 84,
      "start": 197.733,
      "end": 199.633,
      "text": "就要靠纯外部资本了",
      "source": "source_caption",
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    },
    {
      "id": 85,
      "start": 199.633,
      "end": 200.966,
      "text": "于是 五家hyperscaler",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 86,
      "start": 200.966,
      "end": 203.166,
      "text": "开始了疯狂发债的节奏",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 87,
      "start": 203.166,
      "end": 204.833,
      "text": "HyperScaler爆发式发债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 88,
      "start": 204.833,
      "end": 208.7,
      "text": "HyperScaler债券是2026年的首选交易之一",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 89,
      "start": 208.7,
      "end": 210.233,
      "text": "2020年到2024年",
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    },
    {
      "id": 90,
      "start": 210.233,
      "end": 213.766,
      "text": "这五家公司平均每年发债大约280亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 91,
      "start": 213.766,
      "end": 214.966,
      "text": "但是到了2025年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 92,
      "start": 214.966,
      "end": 218.1,
      "text": "这个数字涨到了1083亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 93,
      "start": 218.1,
      "end": 220.1,
      "text": "而从今年初到我们写稿的7月底",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 94,
      "start": 220.1,
      "end": 222.533,
      "text": "巨头们已经就快发了2000亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 95,
      "start": 222.533,
      "end": 224.333,
      "text": "是过去的年均6倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 96,
      "start": 224.333,
      "end": 226.8,
      "text": "不过这五家里面有一个例外是微软",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 97,
      "start": 226.8,
      "end": 228.0,
      "text": "2024年到现在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 98,
      "start": 228.0,
      "end": 230.066,
      "text": "它一笔公开债务都没有发过",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 99,
      "start": 230.066,
      "end": 231.7,
      "text": "总债务反而还降了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 100,
      "start": 231.7,
      "end": 233.133,
      "text": "这件事情挺反常的",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 101,
      "start": 233.133,
      "end": 235.5,
      "text": "那么中间的蹊跷我们放在后面再说",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 102,
      "start": 235.5,
      "end": 236.4,
      "text": "那问题来了",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 103,
      "start": 236.4,
      "end": 239.033,
      "text": "借来这么多钱 到底拿去干嘛了呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 104,
      "start": 239.033,
      "end": 240.166,
      "text": "你可能会觉得",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 105,
      "start": 240.166,
      "end": 243.166,
      "text": "这还用问吗 当然是买显卡 盖机房了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 106,
      "start": 243.166,
      "end": 244.333,
      "text": "但是我们把这五家公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 107,
      "start": 244.333,
      "end": 247.1,
      "text": "两年半里面发的招股书全部翻了一遍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 108,
      "start": 247.1,
      "end": 249.166,
      "text": "在资金用途这部分想找“数据中心”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 109,
      "start": 249.166,
      "end": 250.833,
      "text": "还有“人工智能”这两个词",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 110,
      "start": 250.833,
      "end": 253.5,
      "text": "结果一次都没有出现过",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 111,
      "start": 254.133,
      "end": 254.766,
      "text": "就拿Meta",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 112,
      "start": 254.766,
      "end": 257.7,
      "text": "此前发行的这笔300亿美元的债来说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 113,
      "start": 257.7,
      "end": 258.566,
      "text": "Meta自己表示",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 114,
      "start": 258.566,
      "end": 261.8,
      "text": "这笔钱是为AI和数据中心做长期融资",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 115,
      "start": 261.8,
      "end": 264.8,
      "text": "但是在递交给证监会的招股说明书里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 116,
      "start": 264.8,
      "end": 267.466,
      "text": "“资金用途”整章基本上就六个字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "start": 267.466,
      "end": 269.033,
      "text": "“一般公司用途”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "start": 269.033,
      "end": 270.4,
      "text": "Oracle也是如此",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "start": 270.4,
      "end": 272.566,
      "text": "2026年2月发债的时候说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "start": 272.566,
      "end": 275.033,
      "text": "这笔钱是为了给云客户扩容",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "start": 275.033,
      "end": 277.866,
      "text": "结果第二天递交的招股书里面却写了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 122,
      "start": 277.866,
      "end": 279.9,
      "text": "“分红和股票回购”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 123,
      "start": 279.9,
      "end": 282.633,
      "text": "所以这里出现了一个很有意思的错位",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 124,
      "start": 282.633,
      "end": 283.466,
      "text": "同一笔钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 125,
      "start": 283.466,
      "end": 286.533,
      "text": "在财报电话会上是“我们要all in AI”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 126,
      "start": 286.533,
      "end": 288.366,
      "text": "但在招股说明书里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 127,
      "start": 288.366,
      "end": 291.633,
      "text": "就只剩下“一般公司用途”这六个字了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 128,
      "start": 291.633,
      "end": 294.066,
      "text": "这么遮遮掩掩的原因也很简单",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 129,
      "start": 294.066,
      "end": 296.3,
      "text": "前者是讲给股东听的故事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 130,
      "start": 296.3,
      "end": 299.466,
      "text": "而后者是要承担法律责任的具体表述",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 131,
      "start": 299.466,
      "end": 301.333,
      "text": "巨头们在有法律文件里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 132,
      "start": 301.333,
      "end": 303.033,
      "text": "把话说得如此模糊",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 133,
      "start": 303.033,
      "end": 304.966,
      "text": "就是不想向市场公开宣告",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 134,
      "start": 304.966,
      "end": 306.733,
      "text": "它们在大规模举债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 135,
      "start": 306.733,
      "end": 308.333,
      "text": "但你说 既然市场愿意买",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 136,
      "start": 308.333,
      "end": 310.966,
      "text": "公开债又便宜、又标准、容量又大",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 137,
      "start": 310.966,
      "end": 313.633,
      "text": "为什么不大大方方地承认呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 138,
      "start": 313.633,
      "end": 315.066,
      "text": "主要有三个原因",
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    },
    {
      "id": 139,
      "start": 315.066,
      "end": 318.133,
      "text": "第一就是市场的胃口有边界",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 140,
      "start": 318.566,
      "end": 320.0,
      "text": "衡量一笔债好不好卖",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 141,
      "start": 320.0,
      "end": 323.2,
      "text": "业内有个指标叫做超额认购倍数",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 142,
      "start": 323.2,
      "end": 325.3,
      "text": "简单来说就是市场下的订单",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "start": 325.3,
      "end": 327.033,
      "text": "是发行量的几倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "start": 327.033,
      "end": 328.733,
      "text": "倍数越高说明越抢手",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "start": 328.733,
      "end": 330.1,
      "text": "比如说亚马逊的这个数据",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "start": 330.1,
      "end": 332.866,
      "text": "在过去九个月就一路地往下走",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "start": 332.866,
      "end": 334.9,
      "text": "从去年11月份的5.3倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "start": 334.9,
      "end": 339.0,
      "text": "是一路跌到了2026年7月的这笔1.6倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 149,
      "start": 339.0,
      "end": 340.533,
      "text": "市场上有担心就认为",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 150,
      "start": 340.533,
      "end": 343.466,
      "text": "倍数掉得这么快 是市场开始害怕了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 151,
      "start": 343.466,
      "end": 345.266,
      "text": "但是在我们《硅谷101》的采访中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 152,
      "start": 345.266,
      "end": 348.133,
      "text": "两位华尔街投资人提供了不同的视角",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 153,
      "start": 348.133,
      "end": 349.566,
      "text": "认购倍数的这个问题",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 154,
      "start": 349.566,
      "end": 350.833,
      "text": "其实我的理解是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 155,
      "start": 350.833,
      "end": 352.766,
      "text": "因为这个市场还太新了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 156,
      "start": 352.766,
      "end": 354.9,
      "text": "更多的是因为这些发行人还没学会排队",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 157,
      "start": 355.233,
      "end": 357.1,
      "text": "而不是说更多的是市场的担忧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "start": 357.1,
      "end": 359.266,
      "text": "新到就是说从去年10月才开始",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 159,
      "start": 359.266,
      "end": 362.766,
      "text": "比如说Meta今年第二笔120多亿的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 160,
      "start": 362.766,
      "end": 364.066,
      "text": "SPV（特殊目的实体）债进场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 161,
      "start": 364.066,
      "end": 366.1,
      "text": "同一个窗口还有好几百亿美金的项目",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 162,
      "start": 366.1,
      "end": 367.333,
      "text": "也都在路演",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 163,
      "start": 367.7,
      "end": 368.833,
      "text": "都堆在了一起",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 164,
      "start": 368.833,
      "end": 372.233,
      "text": "再加上前一阵谷歌的现金流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 165,
      "start": 372.233,
      "end": 373.333,
      "text": "转负引发的情绪",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 166,
      "start": 373.333,
      "end": 377.3,
      "text": "所以是这样导致了认购倍数的自然摊薄",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 167,
      "start": 377.366,
      "end": 381.4,
      "text": "其实跟钱袋鼓不鼓没有什么关系",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 168,
      "start": 381.4,
      "end": 383.5,
      "text": "更多反映的是大家的一个意愿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 169,
      "start": 383.5,
      "end": 385.3,
      "text": "其实就跟IPO一样",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 170,
      "start": 385.3,
      "end": 387.2,
      "text": "比如说如果发行的债券很紧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 171,
      "start": 387.2,
      "end": 390.033,
      "text": "好 我本来只需要买100股",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 172,
      "start": 390.466,
      "end": 394.7,
      "text": "因为我知道抢的人很多 我就申请200股",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 173,
      "start": 394.7,
      "end": 396.3,
      "text": "所以倍数掉下来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 174,
      "start": 396.3,
      "end": 397.766,
      "text": "并不是市场没钱了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 175,
      "start": 397.766,
      "end": 399.833,
      "text": "而是大家变得更加挑剔了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 176,
      "start": 399.833,
      "end": 401.1,
      "text": "同一个时间窗口里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 177,
      "start": 401.1,
      "end": 403.533,
      "text": "好几百亿的公开债一起路演",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 178,
      "start": 403.533,
      "end": 406.733,
      "text": "但愿意买这类资产的还是同一批机构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 179,
      "start": 406.733,
      "end": 408.033,
      "text": "而它们在一段时间里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 180,
      "start": 408.033,
      "end": 411.066,
      "text": "能够吃下的同类型债务是有上限的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 181,
      "start": 411.066,
      "end": 413.866,
      "text": "而一旦发债的速度超过了这个上限",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 182,
      "start": 413.866,
      "end": 415.733,
      "text": "发行人就只剩两条路",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 183,
      "start": 415.733,
      "end": 416.7,
      "text": "要么提高利息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 184,
      "start": 416.7,
      "end": 417.866,
      "text": "把那些原本嫌贵",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 185,
      "start": 417.866,
      "end": 420.533,
      "text": "站在场外观望的钱给吸引进来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 186,
      "start": 420.533,
      "end": 422.3,
      "text": "要么干脆绕开这个市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 187,
      "start": 422.3,
      "end": 424.466,
      "text": "去找一批全新的买家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 188,
      "start": 425.2,
      "end": 427.6,
      "text": "现在这两件事都已经发生了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 189,
      "start": 427.6,
      "end": 429.666,
      "text": "我们先来看一下价格这一头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 190,
      "start": 429.666,
      "end": 431.6,
      "text": "借钱的价格也在变",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 191,
      "start": 431.6,
      "end": 434.2,
      "text": "2025年整个投资级债券市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 192,
      "start": 434.2,
      "end": 437.433,
      "text": "中位数只要比二级市场多给2.25个基点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 193,
      "start": 437.433,
      "end": 438.5,
      "text": "就能够卖出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 194,
      "start": 438.5,
      "end": 441.7,
      "text": "但是到了2026年 涨到了12个基点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 195,
      "start": 441.7,
      "end": 444.033,
      "text": "以今年7月亚马逊的那一笔为例",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 196,
      "start": 444.033,
      "end": 447.166,
      "text": "最长的一档是多给了18到21个基点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 197,
      "start": 447.166,
      "end": 448.533,
      "text": "近5倍的代价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 198,
      "start": 448.533,
      "end": 450.233,
      "text": "多给的这十几个基点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 199,
      "start": 450.233,
      "end": 451.766,
      "text": "听上去是个小数",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 200,
      "start": 451.766,
      "end": 453.866,
      "text": "但是摊到几百亿美元的发行量",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 201,
      "start": 453.866,
      "end": 455.5,
      "text": "和二三十年的期限上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 202,
      "start": 455.5,
      "end": 459.266,
      "text": "意味着每年多掏出去的几亿美元现金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 203,
      "start": 459.266,
      "end": 460.3,
      "text": "但是更麻烦的是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 204,
      "start": 460.3,
      "end": 463.566,
      "text": "这个借钱的价格只会像阶梯一样越借越高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 205,
      "start": 463.566,
      "end": 465.9,
      "text": "市场给当前这笔债务的成本定价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 206,
      "start": 465.9,
      "end": 467.933,
      "text": "就成了下一笔的地板价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 207,
      "start": 467.933,
      "end": 468.633,
      "text": "也会顺带",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 208,
      "start": 468.633,
      "end": 471.333,
      "text": "把公司在二级市场上的存量债券价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 209,
      "start": 471.333,
      "end": 472.866,
      "text": "一起往下压",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 210,
      "start": 472.866,
      "end": 473.533,
      "text": "也就是说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 211,
      "start": 473.533,
      "end": 476.333,
      "text": "公开债这条路对于这五家公司不是走不通",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 212,
      "start": 476.333,
      "end": 478.733,
      "text": "而是每走一步都在变贵",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 213,
      "start": 478.733,
      "end": 482.366,
      "text": "而且变贵的速度比它们盖楼的速度还要快",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 214,
      "start": 482.366,
      "end": 484.733,
      "text": "第二个原因是过多的公开债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 215,
      "start": 484.733,
      "end": 487.3,
      "text": "打破了和股东之间的默契",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 216,
      "start": 487.3,
      "end": 488.733,
      "text": "这些公司过去的形象是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 217,
      "start": 488.733,
      "end": 490.933,
      "text": "手上进现金、几乎不欠债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 218,
      "start": 490.933,
      "end": 492.2,
      "text": "赚了钱还给你",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 219,
      "start": 492.2,
      "end": 495.533,
      "text": "而现在变成了大举借债、砍掉回购",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 220,
      "start": 495.533,
      "end": 497.5,
      "text": "美国财经媒体CNBC就评论道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 221,
      "start": 497.5,
      "end": 499.566,
      "text": "这打破了它们和投资者之间",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 222,
      "start": 499.566,
      "end": 501.633,
      "text": "“不言自明的契约”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 223,
      "start": 501.633,
      "end": 503.2,
      "text": "这个契约之所以要紧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 224,
      "start": 503.2,
      "end": 505.533,
      "text": "是因为它决定了今天到底是谁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 225,
      "start": 505.533,
      "end": 507.833,
      "text": "会去持有这几家公司的股票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 226,
      "start": 507.833,
      "end": 509.0,
      "text": "过去它们的买家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 227,
      "start": 509.0,
      "end": 511.466,
      "text": "很大一批是冲着“零净负债、高回购",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 228,
      "start": 511.466,
      "end": 513.0,
      "text": "现金充沛”这套画像",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 229,
      "start": 513.0,
      "end": 515.033,
      "text": "来的质量型和成长型基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 230,
      "start": 515.033,
      "end": 516.8,
      "text": "一旦巨头们的资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 231,
      "start": 516.8,
      "end": 518.533,
      "text": "开始堆起千亿美元的债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 232,
      "start": 518.533,
      "end": 520.033,
      "text": "回购又被砍掉",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 233,
      "start": 520.033,
      "end": 523.366,
      "text": "这批股东手里面的持仓逻辑就不成立了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 234,
      "start": 523.366,
      "end": 524.566,
      "text": "它们要么下调仓位",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 235,
      "start": 524.566,
      "end": 527.033,
      "text": "要么要求更高的回报来补偿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 236,
      "start": 527.033,
      "end": 527.933,
      "text": "而债券那一头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 237,
      "start": 527.933,
      "end": 530.866,
      "text": "新增的债会推高杠杆率、压低评级",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 238,
      "start": 530.866,
      "end": 532.633,
      "text": "让下一笔债更贵",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 239,
      "start": 532.633,
      "end": 534.466,
      "text": "所以打破契约的代价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 240,
      "start": 534.466,
      "end": 538.166,
      "text": "是股和债两头被同时重新定价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 241,
      "start": 538.166,
      "end": 540.633,
      "text": "而第三个原因可能才是最根本的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 242,
      "start": 540.633,
      "end": 542.666,
      "text": "那就是公开债借来的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 243,
      "start": 542.666,
      "end": 545.633,
      "text": "会一分不少地记在自己的资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 244,
      "start": 545.633,
      "end": 548.866,
      "text": "这直接会决定了评级机构给它们什么评级",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 245,
      "start": 548.866,
      "end": 551.7,
      "text": "而评级又决定了谁可以买它的债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 246,
      "start": 551.7,
      "end": 553.733,
      "text": "这五家里面押得最厉害、借得最多的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 247,
      "start": 553.733,
      "end": 554.566,
      "text": "是Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 248,
      "start": 554.566,
      "end": 556.066,
      "text": "它的资本开支一年之内",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 249,
      "start": 556.066,
      "end": 559.166,
      "text": "从212亿美元涨到了557亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 250,
      "start": 559.166,
      "end": 560.066,
      "text": "而今年7月份",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 251,
      "start": 560.066,
      "end": 562.0,
      "text": "标普把Oracle的债务评级",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 252,
      "start": 562.0,
      "end": 563.9,
      "text": "从BBB降到了BBB-",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 253,
      "start": 563.9,
      "end": 565.466,
      "text": "离垃圾级只差一档",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 254,
      "start": 565.466,
      "end": 567.6,
      "text": "可能有观众会问",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 255,
      "start": 567.6,
      "end": 570.0,
      "text": "不就降了一级吗 有那么严重吗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 256,
      "start": 570.0,
      "end": 570.933,
      "text": "问题在于",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 257,
      "start": 570.933,
      "end": 573.266,
      "text": "掉出投资级不仅是面子问题",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 258,
      "start": 573.266,
      "end": 575.0,
      "text": "还有买家名单的问题",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 259,
      "start": 575.0,
      "end": 575.7,
      "text": "一般情况下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 260,
      "start": 575.7,
      "end": 578.366,
      "text": "保险公司和养老金这一类资金最雄厚",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 261,
      "start": 578.366,
      "end": 580.933,
      "text": "但是对风险非常厌恶的机构来说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 262,
      "start": 580.933,
      "end": 583.5,
      "text": "内部对评级有严格要求",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 263,
      "start": 583.5,
      "end": 584.766,
      "text": "评级一旦掉下去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 264,
      "start": 584.766,
      "end": 587.566,
      "text": "会直接影响内部对投资标的的判断",
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      "id": 265,
      "start": 587.566,
      "end": 591.133,
      "text": "而它们恰恰是这些公司最大的一批买家",
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      "id": 266,
      "start": 591.133,
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      "text": "它们（保险基金）（对）Oracle也有投资",
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    {
      "id": 267,
      "start": 592.9,
      "end": 594.1,
      "text": "但是当时投得比较小",
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    {
      "id": 268,
      "start": 594.1,
      "end": 596.2,
      "text": "也是考虑到Oracle的这个风险",
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      "id": 269,
      "start": 596.2,
      "end": 601.1,
      "text": "如果以后假设Oracle跌出了这个投资级",
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    {
      "id": 270,
      "start": 601.1,
      "end": 601.7,
      "text": "对它来说",
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    },
    {
      "id": 271,
      "start": 601.7,
      "end": 606.266,
      "text": "它其实更在乎的是说Oracle是否会违约",
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    {
      "id": 272,
      "start": 606.266,
      "end": 607.9,
      "text": "因为走到违约那一步的话",
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    {
      "id": 273,
      "start": 607.9,
      "end": 610.033,
      "text": "你肯定首先还是先走equity（股东）",
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    {
      "id": 274,
      "start": 610.033,
      "end": 611.566,
      "text": "然后债权人开始承担损失",
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    {
      "id": 275,
      "start": 611.566,
      "end": 612.466,
      "text": "所以在这个角度上",
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    },
    {
      "id": 276,
      "start": 612.466,
      "end": 614.766,
      "text": "它们并没有那么担心评级的变化",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 277,
      "start": 614.766,
      "end": 616.066,
      "text": "而更多的是底层信用",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 278,
      "start": 616.066,
      "end": 617.466,
      "text": "Underlying credit的变化",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 279,
      "start": 617.466,
      "end": 619.1,
      "text": "因为这个是private credit（私募债）",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 280,
      "start": 619.1,
      "end": 621.033,
      "text": "如果历史上它也觉得",
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    },
    {
      "id": 281,
      "start": 621.033,
      "end": 622.366,
      "text": "一旦到了这个程度",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 282,
      "start": 622.366,
      "end": 624.333,
      "text": "说大家都想跑了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 283,
      "start": 624.333,
      "end": 626.8,
      "text": "这种情况下 大概率也不是那么好卖出的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 284,
      "start": 627.033,
      "end": 628.933,
      "text": "真正的问题不光是“必须卖”",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 285,
      "start": 628.933,
      "end": 630.6,
      "text": "而是在想卖的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 286,
      "start": 630.6,
      "end": 632.433,
      "text": "还有没有人接盘",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 287,
      "start": 632.433,
      "end": 634.066,
      "text": "所以对于这几家公司来说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 288,
      "start": 634.066,
      "end": 637.333,
      "text": "账面上的债不是可以无限往上加的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 289,
      "start": 637.333,
      "end": 640.033,
      "text": "加到某个位置 买家自己就消失了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 290,
      "start": 640.033,
      "end": 640.833,
      "text": "而Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 291,
      "start": 640.833,
      "end": 644.066,
      "text": "可能就是那个已经加到位置上的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 292,
      "start": 644.066,
      "end": 645.333,
      "text": "所以来总结一下",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 293,
      "start": 645.333,
      "end": 648.233,
      "text": "这五家公司想要的其实是三样东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 294,
      "start": 648.233,
      "end": 650.266,
      "text": "第一就是更多的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 295,
      "start": 650.266,
      "end": 652.333,
      "text": "因为公开市场上那批老买家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 296,
      "start": 652.333,
      "end": 654.133,
      "text": "已经明显撑不住了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 297,
      "start": 654.133,
      "end": 656.9,
      "text": "而第二是期限更长的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 298,
      "start": 656.9,
      "end": 658.633,
      "text": "我们知道盖一座数据中心",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 299,
      "start": 658.633,
      "end": 660.266,
      "text": "从动工到收回成本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 300,
      "start": 660.266,
      "end": 661.9,
      "text": "要十多二十年的时间",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 301,
      "start": 661.9,
      "end": 665.333,
      "text": "公开债给不了这么长、又这么定制的条件",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 302,
      "start": 665.333,
      "end": 667.4,
      "text": "第三 也是最难的一样",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 303,
      "start": 667.4,
      "end": 668.8,
      "text": "就是它们希望这笔钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 304,
      "start": 668.8,
      "end": 670.433,
      "text": "最好别那么显眼地",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 305,
      "start": 670.433,
      "end": 672.733,
      "text": "记在自己的资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 306,
      "start": 672.733,
      "end": 675.833,
      "text": "而这三样 公开债市场一样都给不全",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 307,
      "start": 675.833,
      "end": 678.833,
      "text": "那么谁能够同时满足这些需求呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 308,
      "start": 679.266,
      "end": 680.233,
      "text": "巧了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 309,
      "start": 680.233,
      "end": 681.566,
      "text": "就在同一个时间点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 310,
      "start": 681.566,
      "end": 684.2,
      "text": "华尔街那边也有一帮遇到麻烦的人",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 311,
      "start": 684.2,
      "end": 685.866,
      "text": "而解决麻烦的最好办法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 312,
      "start": 685.866,
      "end": 689.533,
      "text": "恰恰就是把这三样东西一起给递过去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 313,
      "start": 689.533,
      "end": 691.566,
      "text": "这就一拍即合了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 314,
      "start": 691.566,
      "end": 693.266,
      "text": "华尔街上这群人中间",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 315,
      "start": 693.266,
      "end": 695.466,
      "text": "有一个机构叫做Blue Owl",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 316,
      "start": 698.866,
      "end": 700.033,
      "text": "2026年上半年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 317,
      "start": 700.033,
      "end": 702.933,
      "text": "全球最大的私募信贷机构之一的Bule Owl",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 318,
      "start": 702.933,
      "end": 705.2,
      "text": "旗下的一只基金连续两个季度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 319,
      "start": 705.2,
      "end": 707.333,
      "text": "遭到40%的赎回挤兑",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 320,
      "start": 707.333,
      "end": 709.7,
      "text": "但最终只兑付了不到15%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 321,
      "start": 709.7,
      "end": 710.666,
      "text": "而公司的股价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 322,
      "start": 710.666,
      "end": 713.7,
      "text": "也从24美元一路跌到了9美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 323,
      "start": 713.7,
      "end": 714.4,
      "text": "换句话说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 324,
      "start": 714.4,
      "end": 717.533,
      "text": "每三个想把自己的钱从里面拿走的人里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 325,
      "start": 717.533,
      "end": 720.033,
      "text": "只有一个人能够真正地拿到钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 326,
      "start": 720.033,
      "end": 721.666,
      "text": "为什么会出现这样的事呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 327,
      "start": 721.666,
      "end": 723.966,
      "text": "因为它旗下这只被挤兑的基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 328,
      "start": 723.966,
      "end": 726.133,
      "text": "主要投资软件SaaS领域",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 329,
      "start": 726.133,
      "end": 730.0,
      "text": "而这正是今年华尔街最不想拿在手里的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 330,
      "start": 730.0,
      "end": 731.033,
      "text": "这里的关键词",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 331,
      "start": 731.033,
      "end": 733.3,
      "text": "一个是“贷款率” 一个是“AI”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 332,
      "start": 733.3,
      "end": 735.033,
      "text": "两个因素叠加在一起",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 333,
      "start": 735.033,
      "end": 738.066,
      "text": "让SaaS板块在今年数次在美股中崩盘",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 334,
      "start": 738.233,
      "end": 740.566,
      "text": "从2025年的9月高点算起",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 335,
      "start": 740.566,
      "end": 742.733,
      "text": "软件股一路跌了近四成",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 336,
      "start": 742.733,
      "end": 745.7,
      "text": "过去投资人愿意给软件公司有很高的估值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 337,
      "start": 745.7,
      "end": 747.533,
      "text": "买的就在于确定性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 338,
      "start": 747.533,
      "end": 750.866,
      "text": "客户每年都会续订 收入年年往上走",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 339,
      "start": 750.866,
      "end": 753.666,
      "text": "而现在这份确定性被打上了问号",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 340,
      "start": 753.666,
      "end": 756.733,
      "text": "因为市场判断 AI会杀死软件",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 341,
      "start": 757.0,
      "end": 758.133,
      "text": "逻辑也很简单",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 342,
      "start": 758.133,
      "end": 759.333,
      "text": "如果一家公司用了AI",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 343,
      "start": 759.333,
      "end": 761.366,
      "text": "自己就能够做出一个够用的工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 344,
      "start": 761.366,
      "end": 764.566,
      "text": "它为什么还要每年去掏订阅费呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 345,
      "start": 764.566,
      "end": 766.533,
      "text": "但是有意思的一件事是",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 346,
      "start": 766.533,
      "end": 769.733,
      "text": "如果你去看基本面 情况并没有那么糟",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 347,
      "start": 769.733,
      "end": 771.533,
      "text": "微软的M365订阅业务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 348,
      "start": 771.533,
      "end": 774.866,
      "text": "同期收入增速从15%升到了19%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 349,
      "start": 774.866,
      "end": 776.866,
      "text": "ServiceNow, Salesforce, Snowflake",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 350,
      "start": 776.866,
      "end": 778.033,
      "text": "这几家SaaS公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 351,
      "start": 778.033,
      "end": 781.233,
      "text": "最近的季度营收也在企稳 甚至加速",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 352,
      "start": 781.233,
      "end": 782.533,
      "text": "既然基本面没事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 353,
      "start": 782.533,
      "end": 784.633,
      "text": "那么为什么会崩得这么惨呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 354,
      "start": 784.633,
      "end": 787.6,
      "text": "这就要说到软件公司的贷款率了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 355,
      "start": 787.6,
      "end": 790.4,
      "text": "国际清算银行今年7月的一份报告就显示",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 356,
      "start": 790.4,
      "end": 791.633,
      "text": "在私募信贷机构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 357,
      "start": 791.633,
      "end": 793.6,
      "text": "放给SaaS公司的所有贷款里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 358,
      "start": 793.6,
      "end": 795.866,
      "text": "有60%是借给了那些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 359,
      "start": 795.866,
      "end": 798.966,
      "text": "同时向七家以上机构借钱的企业",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 360,
      "start": 798.966,
      "end": 802.1,
      "text": "而十年前 这个比例还不到10%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 361,
      "start": 802.1,
      "end": 805.333,
      "text": "所以就算SaaS业务暂时没有被AI冲击",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 362,
      "start": 805.333,
      "end": 807.166,
      "text": "然而一旦市场的情绪转向",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 363,
      "start": 807.166,
      "end": 810.9,
      "text": "整个SaaS产业的信贷敞口逻辑开始崩塌",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 364,
      "start": 810.9,
      "end": 812.366,
      "text": "Blue Owl承认了这一点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 365,
      "start": 812.366,
      "end": 814.233,
      "text": "我认为大多数放贷机构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 366,
      "start": 814.233,
      "end": 815.8,
      "text": "拥有大量软件相关业务的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 367,
      "start": 815.8,
      "end": 818.066,
      "text": "都会寻求降低风险敞口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 368,
      "start": 818.066,
      "end": 819.933,
      "text": "我们也不例外",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 369,
      "start": 819.933,
      "end": 822.533,
      "text": "但会控制在合理范围内",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 370,
      "start": 822.533,
      "end": 825.433,
      "text": "而更要紧的是 真正的检验其实还没有到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 371,
      "start": 825.433,
      "end": 826.933,
      "text": "根据摩根士丹利的计算",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 372,
      "start": 826.933,
      "end": 828.733,
      "text": "大约11%的软件贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 373,
      "start": 828.733,
      "end": 831.1,
      "text": "在2027年年底之前到期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 374,
      "start": 831.1,
      "end": 834.533,
      "text": "另外有20%在2028年年底之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 375,
      "start": 834.533,
      "end": 835.933,
      "text": "这意味着资本巨头们",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 376,
      "start": 835.933,
      "end": 837.833,
      "text": "必须在SaaS“失灵”之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 377,
      "start": 837.833,
      "end": 841.533,
      "text": "找到一个让市场能重新买单的故事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 378,
      "start": 841.533,
      "end": 844.3,
      "text": "而这个故事就是AI数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 379,
      "start": 849.233,
      "end": 851.566,
      "text": "过去的私募信贷最大的一块资产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 380,
      "start": 851.566,
      "end": 852.8,
      "text": "其实是软件公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 381,
      "start": 852.8,
      "end": 855.733,
      "text": "但是软件现在的故事讲不动了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 382,
      "start": 855.733,
      "end": 857.8,
      "text": "这批投资人其实正好把额度转过来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 383,
      "start": 857.8,
      "end": 859.433,
      "text": "来投这个数据中心的债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 384,
      "start": 859.433,
      "end": 860.966,
      "text": "比如2025年12月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 385,
      "start": 860.966,
      "end": 863.566,
      "text": "Blue Owl就以不符合承销标准为由",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 386,
      "start": 863.566,
      "end": 866.566,
      "text": "拒绝了Oracle在密歇根的数据中心项目",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 387,
      "start": 866.566,
      "end": 867.166,
      "text": "但很快",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 388,
      "start": 867.166,
      "end": 869.833,
      "text": "这个单子就被另外一家私募资管巨头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 389,
      "start": 869.833,
      "end": 873.066,
      "text": "PIMCO以更高的定价给抢了下来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 390,
      "start": 874.166,
      "end": 876.833,
      "text": "2026年 围绕AI数据中心的“抢单”事件",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 391,
      "start": 876.833,
      "end": 879.1,
      "text": "几乎每个月都在华尔街上演",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 392,
      "start": 879.1,
      "end": 880.933,
      "text": "同一个数据中心项目要融资",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 393,
      "start": 880.933,
      "end": 883.633,
      "text": "能够收到好几家机构的同时报价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 394,
      "start": 883.633,
      "end": 885.733,
      "text": "谁给的利率更低、条件更松",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 395,
      "start": 885.733,
      "end": 888.4,
      "text": "谁就能够敲下这笔单子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 396,
      "start": 888.4,
      "end": 891.466,
      "text": "把数据中心打包成证券卖给投资人的规模",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 397,
      "start": 891.466,
      "end": 893.8,
      "text": "从2022年的13亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 398,
      "start": 893.8,
      "end": 896.566,
      "text": "涨到了现在的300到400亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 399,
      "start": 896.566,
      "end": 898.533,
      "text": "四年来翻了二十倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 400,
      "start": 898.533,
      "end": 900.333,
      "text": "而在所有这些交易当中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 401,
      "start": 900.333,
      "end": 902.266,
      "text": "有一单最为标志性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 402,
      "start": 902.266,
      "end": 904.3,
      "text": "那就是Meta最新的Hyperscaler",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 403,
      "start": 904.3,
      "end": 905.666,
      "text": "叫做Hyperion",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 404,
      "start": 905.666,
      "end": 907.433,
      "text": "接下来我们就以它作为案例",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 405,
      "start": 907.433,
      "end": 910.3,
      "text": "一步步来拆解一下它的“藏债大法”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 406,
      "start": 913.8,
      "end": 917.4,
      "text": "Hyperion这个项目一共借了273亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 407,
      "start": 917.4,
      "end": 919.533,
      "text": "而在Meta自己的资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 408,
      "start": 919.533,
      "end": 920.966,
      "text": "跟这个项目有关的记录",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 409,
      "start": 920.966,
      "end": 924.166,
      "text": "只有一笔23.7亿美元的投资",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 410,
      "start": 924.166,
      "end": 926.766,
      "text": "那么剩下那两百多亿去哪儿了呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 411,
      "start": 926.766,
      "end": 927.966,
      "text": "我们来一层一层地",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 412,
      "start": 927.966,
      "end": 929.933,
      "text": "拆解下它们的“藏债工具”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 413,
      "start": 929.933,
      "end": 932.333,
      "text": "这座数据中心在路易斯安那州",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 414,
      "start": 932.333,
      "end": 935.533,
      "text": "登记在一家名叫Laidley LLC的公司名下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 415,
      "start": 935.533,
      "end": 936.633,
      "text": "园区由它运营",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 416,
      "start": 936.633,
      "end": 937.9,
      "text": "还跟当地的电力公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 417,
      "start": 937.9,
      "end": 940.533,
      "text": "签了一份15年的供电合同",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 418,
      "start": 940.533,
      "end": 941.366,
      "text": "Laidley上面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 419,
      "start": 941.366,
      "end": 943.233,
      "text": "是Project Beignet Holdings",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 420,
      "start": 943.233,
      "end": 946.366,
      "text": "数据中心的产权在这家公司手里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 421,
      "start": 946.366,
      "end": 948.833,
      "text": "再往上是Beignet Investor",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 422,
      "start": 948.833,
      "end": 952.233,
      "text": "那273亿的债券就是它发的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 423,
      "start": 952.233,
      "end": 953.6,
      "text": "更上面是一家叫做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 424,
      "start": 953.6,
      "end": 955.3,
      "text": "Beignet Pledgor的公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 425,
      "start": 955.3,
      "end": 957.866,
      "text": "它全资持有Beignet Investor",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 426,
      "start": 957.866,
      "end": 960.666,
      "text": "同时 它把这些股权质押给了受托人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 427,
      "start": 960.666,
      "end": 963.633,
      "text": "这样债权人把273亿美元借出去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 428,
      "start": 963.633,
      "end": 964.733,
      "text": "拿回的抵押品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 429,
      "start": 964.733,
      "end": 968.233,
      "text": "是发债公司的股权和它名下的数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 430,
      "start": 968.233,
      "end": 970.666,
      "text": "Pledgor上面还有四家持股公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 431,
      "start": 970.666,
      "end": 971.266,
      "text": "其中一家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 432,
      "start": 971.266,
      "end": 973.366,
      "text": "叫做Beignet Net Lease Aggregator",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 433,
      "start": 973.366,
      "end": 976.4,
      "text": "它把所有出资人先汇集进一个壳里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 434,
      "start": 976.4,
      "end": 978.733,
      "text": "再由这家壳公司出面持股",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 435,
      "start": 978.733,
      "end": 980.0,
      "text": "而站在最顶上的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 436,
      "start": 980.0,
      "end": 983.266,
      "text": "是Blue Owl旗下的一只叫做OSNL的基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 437,
      "start": 983.266,
      "end": 985.233,
      "text": "它专做净租赁不动产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 438,
      "start": 985.233,
      "end": 985.866,
      "text": "除此之外",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 439,
      "start": 985.866,
      "end": 987.066,
      "text": "还有一批跟着Blue Owl",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 440,
      "start": 987.066,
      "end": 989.2,
      "text": "一起出钱的共同投资人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 441,
      "start": 989.2,
      "end": 991.566,
      "text": "到这 Hyperion这个数据中心资产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 442,
      "start": 991.566,
      "end": 993.066,
      "text": "就和与它相关的债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 443,
      "start": 993.066,
      "end": 995.266,
      "text": "做好了法律层面的隔离",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 444,
      "start": 995.266,
      "end": 996.3,
      "text": "另外你会发现",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 445,
      "start": 996.3,
      "end": 998.766,
      "text": "这几家公司的名字都带着一个词",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 446,
      "start": 998.766,
      "end": 1000.2,
      "text": "叫“Beignet”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 447,
      "start": 1000.2,
      "end": 1003.0,
      "text": "这是新奥尔良街头的一种油炸甜点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 448,
      "start": 1003.233,
      "end": 1004.466,
      "text": "这种“美食命名法”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 449,
      "start": 1004.466,
      "end": 1006.666,
      "text": "倒是跟Meta大模型的取名方法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 450,
      "start": 1006.666,
      "end": 1007.8,
      "text": "是同一个路数",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 451,
      "start": 1007.8,
      "end": 1010.5,
      "text": "我们去查了查这七家带Beignet名字的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 452,
      "start": 1010.5,
      "end": 1011.8,
      "text": "公司的注册记录",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 453,
      "start": 1011.8,
      "end": 1014.033,
      "text": "它们全部注册在美国特拉华州",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 454,
      "start": 1014.033,
      "end": 1016.8,
      "text": "注册时间前后不到六个星期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 455,
      "start": 1016.8,
      "end": 1017.7,
      "text": "在特拉华州",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 456,
      "start": 1017.7,
      "end": 1018.8,
      "text": "有限责任公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 457,
      "start": 1018.8,
      "end": 1021.166,
      "text": "不需要公开自己的成员和出资比例",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 458,
      "start": 1021.166,
      "end": 1024.066,
      "text": "这笔273亿美元的债券也一样",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 459,
      "start": 1024.066,
      "end": 1026.566,
      "text": "不用向证监会递交招股说明书",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 460,
      "start": 1026.566,
      "end": 1027.166,
      "text": "也就是说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 461,
      "start": 1027.166,
      "end": 1030.266,
      "text": "它永远不会转成一笔公开登记的债券",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 462,
      "start": 1030.766,
      "end": 1032.1,
      "text": "但法律层面的隔离",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 463,
      "start": 1032.1,
      "end": 1034.4,
      "text": "其实并不能够让债务消失",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 464,
      "start": 1034.4,
      "end": 1037.366,
      "text": "这类壳公司结构 其实一点都不新鲜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 465,
      "start": 1037.366,
      "end": 1039.3,
      "text": "它们在金融领域有一个正经的名字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 466,
      "start": 1039.3,
      "end": 1042.733,
      "text": "叫做特殊目的实体 简称SPV",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 467,
      "start": 1042.733,
      "end": 1044.366,
      "text": "而正因为太常见",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 468,
      "start": 1044.366,
      "end": 1047.8,
      "text": "会计准则早就对这套结构有所准备了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 469,
      "start": 1047.833,
      "end": 1049.266,
      "text": "美国会计准则里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 470,
      "start": 1049.266,
      "end": 1051.333,
      "text": "有一条专门管这件事情的规定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 471,
      "start": 1051.333,
      "end": 1052.366,
      "text": "它的原则是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 472,
      "start": 1052.366,
      "end": 1054.7,
      "text": "一笔债要不要放进你的资产负债表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 473,
      "start": 1054.7,
      "end": 1056.366,
      "text": "主要看两条",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 474,
      "start": 1056.366,
      "end": 1058.133,
      "text": "第一 你对项目的关键决策",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 475,
      "start": 1058.133,
      "end": 1059.666,
      "text": "有没有主导权力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 476,
      "start": 1059.666,
      "end": 1062.466,
      "text": "第二 你是否是该项目的主要受益人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 477,
      "start": 1062.466,
      "end": 1065.2,
      "text": "而Meta的答案写在股权结构上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 478,
      "start": 1065.2,
      "end": 1067.5,
      "text": "Blue Owl通过63%的股权",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 479,
      "start": 1067.5,
      "end": 1069.666,
      "text": "间接控股Beignet Investor",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 480,
      "start": 1069.666,
      "end": 1071.3,
      "text": "然后又通过Beignet Investor",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 481,
      "start": 1071.3,
      "end": 1072.833,
      "text": "持有Project Beignet Holdings",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 482,
      "start": 1072.833,
      "end": 1074.2,
      "text": "80%的股权",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 483,
      "start": 1074.2,
      "end": 1077.1,
      "text": "也就是实际拥有数据中心的那家公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 484,
      "start": 1077.1,
      "end": 1079.333,
      "text": "而剩下的20%是Meta的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 485,
      "start": 1079.333,
      "end": 1081.366,
      "text": "这也就是Meta资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 486,
      "start": 1081.366,
      "end": 1084.2,
      "text": "那笔23.7亿美元的投资",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 487,
      "start": 1084.2,
      "end": 1086.4,
      "text": "Meta自己在财报里面是这样写的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 488,
      "start": 1086.4,
      "end": 1088.066,
      "text": "因为在这家合资公司里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 489,
      "start": 1088.066,
      "end": 1090.633,
      "text": "最重要的经营活动上没有主导权力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 490,
      "start": 1090.633,
      "end": 1092.433,
      "text": "所以Meta不是主要受益人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 491,
      "start": 1092.433,
      "end": 1093.733,
      "text": "因此不用并表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 492,
      "start": 1093.733,
      "end": 1095.8,
      "text": "合资公司不并进Meta的报表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 493,
      "start": 1095.8,
      "end": 1098.433,
      "text": "那与它相关的273亿美元债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 494,
      "start": 1098.433,
      "end": 1101.6,
      "text": "也就自然从Meta的负债表上消失了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 495,
      "start": 1101.6,
      "end": 1103.666,
      "text": "但是这就引出了下一个问题",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 496,
      "start": 1103.666,
      "end": 1105.366,
      "text": "这笔债不在Meta的表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 497,
      "start": 1105.366,
      "end": 1108.0,
      "text": "是不是就意味着Meta不用还钱了呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 498,
      "start": 1108.0,
      "end": 1111.7,
      "text": "答案是当然得还了 但是绕了一圈",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 499,
      "start": 1111.7,
      "end": 1113.666,
      "text": "Meta旗下有一家承租公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 500,
      "start": 1113.666,
      "end": 1115.0,
      "text": "叫做Pelican Leap",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 501,
      "start": 1115.0,
      "end": 1117.933,
      "text": "它跟Hyperion的运营主体Laidley LLC",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 502,
      "start": 1117.933,
      "end": 1119.666,
      "text": "签了一份租赁合同",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 503,
      "start": 1119.666,
      "end": 1121.0,
      "text": "从2029年起",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 504,
      "start": 1121.0,
      "end": 1121.666,
      "text": "Pelican Leap",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 505,
      "start": 1121.666,
      "end": 1124.166,
      "text": "要每个月向Laidley交纳租金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 506,
      "start": 1124.166,
      "end": 1126.133,
      "text": "这笔钱先到Laidley账上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 507,
      "start": 1126.133,
      "end": 1129.0,
      "text": "然后顺着Beignet这一串壳公司往上走",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 508,
      "start": 1129.0,
      "end": 1132.633,
      "text": "最后到债券投资人手里 用来偿还本息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 509,
      "start": 1132.633,
      "end": 1134.566,
      "text": "所以绕了这么一大圈",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 510,
      "start": 1134.566,
      "end": 1137.166,
      "text": "还债的钱都还是Meta自己掏的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 511,
      "start": 1137.166,
      "end": 1139.166,
      "text": "我们再来看看这笔债本身",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 512,
      "start": 1139.166,
      "end": 1143.7,
      "text": "总金额272.9亿美元 票息6.581%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 513,
      "start": 1143.7,
      "end": 1146.633,
      "text": "2049年5月到期 而且是完全摊销",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 514,
      "start": 1146.633,
      "end": 1147.2,
      "text": "说白了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 515,
      "start": 1147.2,
      "end": 1149.733,
      "text": "这就是一笔24年的按揭贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 516,
      "start": 1149.733,
      "end": 1151.866,
      "text": "还有一个细节值得我们注意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 517,
      "start": 1151.866,
      "end": 1154.5,
      "text": "这份租赁合同的初始租期是4年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 518,
      "start": 1154.5,
      "end": 1155.766,
      "text": "2029年起租",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 519,
      "start": 1155.766,
      "end": 1158.566,
      "text": "并且给Meta附上了续约选择权",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 520,
      "start": 1158.566,
      "end": 1160.5,
      "text": "最长可以续到20年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 521,
      "start": 1160.5,
      "end": 1162.433,
      "text": "可是这里就又有一个问题了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 522,
      "start": 1162.433,
      "end": 1163.9,
      "text": "这笔债要还24年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 523,
      "start": 1163.9,
      "end": 1165.233,
      "text": "但是Meta只租了4年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 524,
      "start": 1165.233,
      "end": 1167.266,
      "text": "也就是说到2033年的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 525,
      "start": 1167.266,
      "end": 1169.5,
      "text": "Meta可以选择直接走人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 526,
      "start": 1169.5,
      "end": 1172.7,
      "text": "那剩下这两百多亿的债谁来还呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 527,
      "start": 1172.7,
      "end": 1174.833,
      "text": "答案还是在这份租约里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 528,
      "start": 1174.833,
      "end": 1177.2,
      "text": "我们来仔细看一下这份租约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 529,
      "start": 1177.2,
      "end": 1178.4,
      "text": "除了每个月的租金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 530,
      "start": 1178.4,
      "end": 1181.233,
      "text": "Meta还在租约上附加了一份残值担保",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 531,
      "start": 1181.233,
      "end": 1184.166,
      "text": "它的上限大约是280亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 532,
      "start": 1184.166,
      "end": 1185.9,
      "text": "Meta在财报里面写得很清楚",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 533,
      "start": 1185.9,
      "end": 1189.5,
      "text": "如果它决定不再续租或者退出这个园区",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 534,
      "start": 1189.5,
      "end": 1191.4,
      "text": "到时候这个园区的市价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 535,
      "start": 1191.4,
      "end": 1193.666,
      "text": "与280亿美元之间的价差",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 536,
      "start": 1193.666,
      "end": 1195.666,
      "text": "全部由Meta补上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 537,
      "start": 1195.666,
      "end": 1199.4,
      "text": "所以这笔273亿美元贷款的真正抵押品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 538,
      "start": 1199.4,
      "end": 1201.333,
      "text": "其实就是Meta自己",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 539,
      "start": 1201.333,
      "end": 1203.8,
      "text": "这个结论你也能够从这笔债的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 540,
      "start": 1203.8,
      "end": 1206.066,
      "text": "信用评级里面能看出来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 541,
      "start": 1206.066,
      "end": 1208.566,
      "text": "标普给这笔债券的评级是A+",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 542,
      "start": 1208.566,
      "end": 1210.766,
      "text": "而Meta自己的评级是AA-",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 543,
      "start": 1210.766,
      "end": 1213.8,
      "text": "其实就是拿Meta自身的信用往下调了一档",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 544,
      "start": 1213.9,
      "end": 1215.166,
      "text": "你不会说是因为我",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 545,
      "start": 1215.166,
      "end": 1217.7,
      "text": "给你有一个guarantee（担保）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 546,
      "start": 1217.7,
      "end": 1219.5,
      "text": "你就能享受到（我）的credit rating（信用评级）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 547,
      "start": 1219.5,
      "end": 1220.9,
      "text": "那是不可能的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 548,
      "start": 1221.033,
      "end": 1222.8,
      "text": "市场没有傻到这个程度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 549,
      "start": 1222.8,
      "end": 1223.5,
      "text": "它的credit rating（信用评级）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 550,
      "start": 1223.5,
      "end": 1224.433,
      "text": "就是比Meta低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 551,
      "start": 1224.433,
      "end": 1225.266,
      "text": "它会考虑到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 552,
      "start": 1225.266,
      "end": 1226.733,
      "text": "Meta是作为一个backing（信用支撑）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 553,
      "start": 1226.733,
      "end": 1229.566,
      "text": "但是不会给你100%的credit（信用认可）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 554,
      "start": 1229.566,
      "end": 1231.0,
      "text": "它肯定要有haircut（折扣）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 555,
      "start": 1231.0,
      "end": 1233.266,
      "text": "作为投资人在评估Meta的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 556,
      "start": 1233.266,
      "end": 1234.866,
      "text": "我其实不是非常关心说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 557,
      "start": 1234.866,
      "end": 1237.166,
      "text": "它到底是在哪张表上 它是表内表外",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 558,
      "start": 1237.166,
      "end": 1239.966,
      "text": "而是说它这个确实是Meta实际的义务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 559,
      "start": 1239.966,
      "end": 1243.366,
      "text": "它就是说租约加上残值担保",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 560,
      "start": 1243.366,
      "end": 1246.133,
      "text": "本质上就是Meta长期的一个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 561,
      "start": 1246.133,
      "end": 1247.3,
      "text": "固定支出承诺",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 562,
      "start": 1247.3,
      "end": 1248.6,
      "text": "所以我会把它算进我的模型里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 563,
      "start": 1248.6,
      "end": 1249.133,
      "text": "当然了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 564,
      "start": 1249.133,
      "end": 1252.1,
      "text": "Meta为了要得到这张干净的资产负债表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 565,
      "start": 1252.1,
      "end": 1254.233,
      "text": "也是要付出额外的代价的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 566,
      "start": 1254.233,
      "end": 1255.9,
      "text": "Meta如果自己在公开市场上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 567,
      "start": 1255.9,
      "end": 1257.6,
      "text": "发一笔同样期限的债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 568,
      "start": 1257.6,
      "end": 1260.033,
      "text": "成本大约是5.5%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 569,
      "start": 1260.033,
      "end": 1262.366,
      "text": "而通过Beignet这套SPV借钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 570,
      "start": 1262.366,
      "end": 1264.133,
      "text": "成本是6.581%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 571,
      "start": 1264.133,
      "end": 1267.6,
      "text": "相当于一年要多付将近3亿美元的利息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 572,
      "start": 1267.6,
      "end": 1269.533,
      "text": "设计出这么贵的一套工具",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 573,
      "start": 1269.533,
      "end": 1272.566,
      "text": "Meta和华尔街显然不打算只用一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 574,
      "start": 1272.566,
      "end": 1275.033,
      "text": "而就在今年7月 第二笔来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 575,
      "start": 1275.033,
      "end": 1277.166,
      "text": "名叫做Sopaipilla",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 576,
      "start": 1277.166,
      "end": 1277.833,
      "text": "这是Meta",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 577,
      "start": 1277.833,
      "end": 1280.566,
      "text": "在得克萨斯州埃尔帕索的另外一个项目",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 578,
      "start": 1280.566,
      "end": 1281.866,
      "text": "7月27号定价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 579,
      "start": 1281.866,
      "end": 1283.766,
      "text": "最终发了125亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 580,
      "start": 1283.766,
      "end": 1287.233,
      "text": "票息7.534% 2048年到期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 581,
      "start": 1287.233,
      "end": 1288.566,
      "text": "同样是完全摊销",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 582,
      "start": 1288.566,
      "end": 1291.2,
      "text": "同样的“八二开”股份结构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 583,
      "start": 1291.2,
      "end": 1292.1,
      "text": "唯一的区别是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 584,
      "start": 1292.1,
      "end": 1293.866,
      "text": "这一次拿80%的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 585,
      "start": 1293.866,
      "end": 1296.2,
      "text": "从Blue Owl变成了贝莱德",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 586,
      "start": 1296.2,
      "end": 1297.133,
      "text": "不到一年的时间",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 587,
      "start": 1297.133,
      "end": 1299.3,
      "text": "Meta就发行了两笔数据中心债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 588,
      "start": 1299.3,
      "end": 1301.7,
      "text": "加起来将近400亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 589,
      "start": 1301.7,
      "end": 1303.933,
      "text": "所以说Meta设计的这套发债机制",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 590,
      "start": 1303.933,
      "end": 1305.433,
      "text": "已经是非常成熟了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 591,
      "start": 1305.433,
      "end": 1306.366,
      "text": "但当前的市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 592,
      "start": 1306.366,
      "end": 1309.266,
      "text": "对同一家公司连续快速发债的风险敞口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 593,
      "start": 1309.266,
      "end": 1311.266,
      "text": "依然是比较有严格的把控的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 594,
      "start": 1311.333,
      "end": 1312.633,
      "text": "我观察到很多这种",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 595,
      "start": 1312.633,
      "end": 1317.266,
      "text": "实际参与了这两笔融资的大机构投资人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 596,
      "start": 1317.266,
      "end": 1318.1,
      "text": "对比去年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 597,
      "start": 1318.1,
      "end": 1321.1,
      "text": "今年这个125亿的参与度是相对少了很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 598,
      "start": 1321.1,
      "end": 1321.8,
      "text": "有几个原因",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 599,
      "start": 1321.8,
      "end": 1325.133,
      "text": "首先就是它们觉得这两笔发得太快了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 600,
      "start": 1325.133,
      "end": 1327.866,
      "text": "一下出来了很多大量的、可投资的标的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 601,
      "start": 1327.866,
      "end": 1329.666,
      "text": "第二个就是当它们",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 602,
      "start": 1329.666,
      "end": 1331.966,
      "text": "越来越多地去投资数据中心的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 603,
      "start": 1331.966,
      "end": 1333.933,
      "text": "数据中心在它们的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 604,
      "start": 1333.933,
      "end": 1335.866,
      "text": "Portfolio（投资组合）里面的占比",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 605,
      "start": 1335.866,
      "end": 1337.833,
      "text": "已经达到了一个比较高的程度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 606,
      "start": 1337.833,
      "end": 1339.933,
      "text": "在这个时候它们要非常平衡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 607,
      "start": 1339.933,
      "end": 1341.866,
      "text": "自己credit portfolio（信用债）的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 608,
      "start": 1341.866,
      "end": 1343.3,
      "text": "一个资产配置",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 609,
      "start": 1343.3,
      "end": 1346.4,
      "text": "所以今年会稍微少投一些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 610,
      "start": 1346.4,
      "end": 1348.9,
      "text": "但是这个其实本身和Meta是没有关系的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 611,
      "start": 1348.966,
      "end": 1351.3,
      "text": "我们同时也把另外四家巨头的财报",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 612,
      "start": 1351.3,
      "end": 1352.033,
      "text": "也翻了一遍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 613,
      "start": 1352.033,
      "end": 1353.733,
      "text": "发现在“发债”这件事上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 614,
      "start": 1353.733,
      "end": 1356.766,
      "text": "大家真的是八仙过海 各显神通",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 615,
      "start": 1360.1,
      "end": 1361.266,
      "text": "先来看看微软",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 616,
      "start": 1361.266,
      "end": 1364.166,
      "text": "我们开头就说到了 它挺奇葩的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 617,
      "start": 1364.166,
      "end": 1365.866,
      "text": "它不搭壳 也不发债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 618,
      "start": 1365.866,
      "end": 1367.533,
      "text": "在过去的将近两年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 619,
      "start": 1367.533,
      "end": 1371.066,
      "text": "微软资产负债表上的总债务不升反降",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 620,
      "start": 1371.066,
      "end": 1374.366,
      "text": "从449亿美元一路是降到了403亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 621,
      "start": 1374.366,
      "end": 1376.333,
      "text": "但这其实是它的障眼法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 622,
      "start": 1376.333,
      "end": 1377.533,
      "text": "就在同一段时间里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 623,
      "start": 1377.533,
      "end": 1379.1,
      "text": "微软的融资租赁负债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 624,
      "start": 1379.1,
      "end": 1382.066,
      "text": "从271亿涨到了629亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 625,
      "start": 1382.066,
      "end": 1382.966,
      "text": "翻了一倍多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 626,
      "start": 1382.966,
      "end": 1385.5,
      "text": "比它的总负债还多两百多亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 627,
      "start": 1385.5,
      "end": 1387.0,
      "text": "融资租赁的意思说白了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 628,
      "start": 1387.0,
      "end": 1389.5,
      "text": "就是名义上租、实际上是分期买",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 629,
      "start": 1389.5,
      "end": 1392.733,
      "text": "租期几乎是覆盖了这栋楼能用的全部年限",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 630,
      "start": 1392.733,
      "end": 1393.8,
      "text": "会计上就认定",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 631,
      "start": 1393.8,
      "end": 1395.433,
      "text": "你其实已经把它买下来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 632,
      "start": 1395.433,
      "end": 1397.2,
      "text": "只是钱分期在付",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 633,
      "start": 1397.2,
      "end": 1399.7,
      "text": "所以这笔钱得全额记进负债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 634,
      "start": 1399.7,
      "end": 1401.066,
      "text": "但在资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 635,
      "start": 1401.066,
      "end": 1403.033,
      "text": "它不用写在“债务”的那一行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 636,
      "start": 1403.033,
      "end": 1405.666,
      "text": "也就是说你从资产负债表上的表面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 637,
      "start": 1405.666,
      "end": 1407.033,
      "text": "是看不到它的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 638,
      "start": 1407.033,
      "end": 1408.433,
      "text": "这笔629亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 639,
      "start": 1408.433,
      "end": 1410.566,
      "text": "的确记在了微软的负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 640,
      "start": 1410.566,
      "end": 1412.2,
      "text": "不过它不叫“债务”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 641,
      "start": 1412.2,
      "end": 1414.4,
      "text": "而是被拆进了“其他流动负债”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 642,
      "start": 1414.4,
      "end": 1417.133,
      "text": "和“其他长期负债”这两行里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 643,
      "start": 1417.133,
      "end": 1418.233,
      "text": "再来看看谷歌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 644,
      "start": 1418.233,
      "end": 1420.166,
      "text": "它比微软走得更进一步",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 645,
      "start": 1420.166,
      "end": 1422.233,
      "text": "它连壳都不搭 也不持股",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 646,
      "start": 1422.233,
      "end": 1423.366,
      "text": "只做一件事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 647,
      "start": 1423.366,
      "end": 1426.566,
      "text": "就是给别人盖的机房做付款担保",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 648,
      "start": 1426.566,
      "end": 1428.466,
      "text": "让它能够借得到钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 649,
      "start": 1428.466,
      "end": 1430.666,
      "text": "谷歌自己在财报里面写了一句话",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 650,
      "start": 1430.666,
      "end": 1431.7,
      "text": "一旦对方违约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 651,
      "start": 1431.7,
      "end": 1434.4,
      "text": "“我们保留接管底层租约的权利”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 652,
      "start": 1434.4,
      "end": 1435.766,
      "text": "这些担保在会计上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 653,
      "start": 1435.766,
      "end": 1437.633,
      "text": "被记成了“信用衍生品”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 654,
      "start": 1437.633,
      "end": 1439.0,
      "text": "账面规模半年之内",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 655,
      "start": 1439.0,
      "end": 1442.366,
      "text": "从169亿美元涨到了438亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 656,
      "start": 1442.366,
      "end": 1443.933,
      "text": "但是这438亿里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 657,
      "start": 1443.933,
      "end": 1446.633,
      "text": "只有一小部分是进入了谷歌的负债表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 658,
      "start": 1446.633,
      "end": 1448.866,
      "text": "也就是这份担保“今天值多少钱”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 659,
      "start": 1448.866,
      "end": 1451.033,
      "text": "而这部分总共8.15亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 660,
      "start": 1451.033,
      "end": 1453.8,
      "text": "连总金额的2%都不到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 661,
      "start": 1454.1,
      "end": 1456.866,
      "text": "亚马逊是五家里面最老实的一个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 662,
      "start": 1456.866,
      "end": 1459.166,
      "text": "它就是自己借钱自己盖",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 663,
      "start": 1459.166,
      "end": 1459.833,
      "text": "今年3月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 664,
      "start": 1459.833,
      "end": 1462.466,
      "text": "亚马逊一次性发了五百多亿美元的债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 665,
      "start": 1462.466,
      "end": 1463.466,
      "text": "不过它的手上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 666,
      "start": 1463.466,
      "end": 1466.733,
      "text": "还另外签了1063亿的租约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 667,
      "start": 1466.733,
      "end": 1468.466,
      "text": "和后面要说的Oracle一样",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 668,
      "start": 1468.466,
      "end": 1471.0,
      "text": "都没有进入亚马逊的负债表里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 669,
      "start": 1471.0,
      "end": 1473.0,
      "text": "最后是甲骨文Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 670,
      "start": 1473.0,
      "end": 1474.8,
      "text": "它既不搭壳 也不做担保",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 671,
      "start": 1474.8,
      "end": 1476.7,
      "text": "而是只签合同",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 672,
      "start": 1476.7,
      "end": 1478.4,
      "text": "甲骨文Oracle签下的租约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 673,
      "start": 1478.4,
      "end": 1479.966,
      "text": "一共2600亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 674,
      "start": 1479.966,
      "end": 1482.133,
      "text": "几乎全部与数据中心有关",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 675,
      "start": 1482.133,
      "end": 1483.833,
      "text": "租期15到19年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 676,
      "start": 1483.833,
      "end": 1486.2,
      "text": "而这些租约要到明年才开始起租",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 677,
      "start": 1486.2,
      "end": 1487.7,
      "text": "也就是说到今天为止",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 678,
      "start": 1487.7,
      "end": 1488.7,
      "text": "这些租赁债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 679,
      "start": 1488.7,
      "end": 1491.5,
      "text": "一分钱都没有写到它的负债表里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 680,
      "start": 1491.5,
      "end": 1492.166,
      "text": "总的来说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 681,
      "start": 1492.166,
      "end": 1495.633,
      "text": "Meta搭壳、微软走融资租赁、谷歌卖保险",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 682,
      "start": 1495.633,
      "end": 1498.066,
      "text": "亚马逊和Oracle全靠租",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 683,
      "start": 1498.066,
      "end": 1501.166,
      "text": "这几家的做法基本上都是不一样的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 684,
      "start": 1501.333,
      "end": 1503.533,
      "text": "但你要是把这五张图叠在一起看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 685,
      "start": 1503.533,
      "end": 1506.366,
      "text": "会发现它们在做的其实是同一件事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 686,
      "start": 1506.366,
      "end": 1509.6,
      "text": "我们把它称之为“还钱的艺术”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 687,
      "start": 1509.733,
      "end": 1511.4,
      "text": "我们先建立一个标准",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 688,
      "start": 1511.4,
      "end": 1513.733,
      "text": "把一家公司的债务分层三层",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 689,
      "start": 1513.733,
      "end": 1515.666,
      "text": "第一层是已经借到手的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 690,
      "start": 1515.666,
      "end": 1517.7,
      "text": "比如说债券、票据、贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 691,
      "start": 1517.7,
      "end": 1519.833,
      "text": "这些钱是真金白银进了账",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 692,
      "start": 1519.833,
      "end": 1522.366,
      "text": "也真金白银地记在了负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 693,
      "start": 1522.366,
      "end": 1524.766,
      "text": "第二层是表内全部的欠账",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 694,
      "start": 1524.766,
      "end": 1525.533,
      "text": "除了借款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 695,
      "start": 1525.533,
      "end": 1526.3,
      "text": "还有比如说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 696,
      "start": 1526.3,
      "end": 1528.533,
      "text": "欠供应商的贷款、欠客户的服务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 697,
      "start": 1528.533,
      "end": 1530.4,
      "text": "和已经开始付的租金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 698,
      "start": 1530.4,
      "end": 1532.8,
      "text": "第三层是签了字 但还没有上表的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 699,
      "start": 1532.8,
      "end": 1534.3,
      "text": "比如说“租约”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 700,
      "start": 1534.3,
      "end": 1536.366,
      "text": "这一层不出现在资产负债表上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 701,
      "start": 1536.366,
      "end": 1538.966,
      "text": "只写在财报最后的附注里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 702,
      "start": 1538.966,
      "end": 1540.1,
      "text": "那问题来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 703,
      "start": 1540.1,
      "end": 1541.7,
      "text": "一笔将来一定要付的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 704,
      "start": 1541.7,
      "end": 1543.833,
      "text": "什么时候才算是债呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 705,
      "start": 1543.833,
      "end": 1544.866,
      "text": "根据会计准则",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 706,
      "start": 1544.866,
      "end": 1547.266,
      "text": "只要是拿到了钱、拿到了货",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 707,
      "start": 1547.266,
      "end": 1549.766,
      "text": "或者拿到了一栋已经能够用的楼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 708,
      "start": 1549.766,
      "end": 1551.1,
      "text": "就必须得记",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 709,
      "start": 1551.1,
      "end": 1554.033,
      "text": "如果什么都还没拿到 那就不用记",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 710,
      "start": 1554.033,
      "end": 1556.866,
      "text": "这也是巨头们藏债的核心方法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 711,
      "start": 1556.866,
      "end": 1559.833,
      "text": "把“自己盖楼”变成“向别人租楼”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 712,
      "start": 1559.833,
      "end": 1562.033,
      "text": "租楼的形态主要有三种",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 713,
      "start": 1562.033,
      "end": 1563.766,
      "text": "第一种是融资租赁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 714,
      "start": 1563.766,
      "end": 1566.633,
      "text": "它上表 但是被拆进“其他负债”里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 715,
      "start": 1566.633,
      "end": 1567.9,
      "text": "表面看不见",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 716,
      "start": 1567.9,
      "end": 1570.766,
      "text": "微软的629亿债务就属于这一种",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 717,
      "start": 1570.766,
      "end": 1572.233,
      "text": "第二种是经营租赁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 718,
      "start": 1572.233,
      "end": 1575.666,
      "text": "它也上表 但是只上租金现值的那一小块",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 719,
      "start": 1575.666,
      "end": 1577.133,
      "text": "比如说Meta的那份租约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 720,
      "start": 1577.133,
      "end": 1579.6,
      "text": "就只记了四年的债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 721,
      "start": 1579.6,
      "end": 1581.7,
      "text": "第三种是还没有开始起租的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 722,
      "start": 1581.7,
      "end": 1583.366,
      "text": "它一分钱都不上表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 723,
      "start": 1583.366,
      "end": 1584.966,
      "text": "Oracle的那2600亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 724,
      "start": 1584.966,
      "end": 1587.2,
      "text": "亚马逊的那1063亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 725,
      "start": 1587.2,
      "end": 1589.4,
      "text": "全部都站在这一层",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 726,
      "start": 1589.4,
      "end": 1592.0,
      "text": "我们把这五家的数字摆在一起看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 727,
      "start": 1592.0,
      "end": 1593.3,
      "text": "已经借到手的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 728,
      "start": 1593.3,
      "end": 1596.1,
      "text": "五家加起来4458万亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 729,
      "start": 1596.1,
      "end": 1598.0,
      "text": "而签了字、还没有上表的租约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 730,
      "start": 1598.0,
      "end": 1600.9,
      "text": "是8310亿 近2倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 731,
      "start": 1600.9,
      "end": 1603.966,
      "text": "如果再把采购和建设的承诺算进来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 732,
      "start": 1603.966,
      "end": 1606.366,
      "text": "总和就是2.13万亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 733,
      "start": 1606.366,
      "end": 1608.333,
      "text": "这就是AI数据中心背后",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 734,
      "start": 1608.333,
      "end": 1611.2,
      "text": "最终真正要付出去的那笔钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 735,
      "start": 1611.2,
      "end": 1613.4,
      "text": "当谷歌和华尔街这么一拍即合",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 736,
      "start": 1613.4,
      "end": 1615.266,
      "text": "这种玩法有没有风险呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 737,
      "start": 1619.7,
      "end": 1620.266,
      "text": "到这里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 738,
      "start": 1620.266,
      "end": 1622.9,
      "text": "我们已经看完了五家巨头各自的做法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 739,
      "start": 1622.9,
      "end": 1625.2,
      "text": "如果你把它们排成一条线会发现",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 740,
      "start": 1625.2,
      "end": 1628.566,
      "text": "这是一条不断往下延伸的金融产品线",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 741,
      "start": 1628.566,
      "end": 1631.0,
      "text": "越往下 价格越贵 风险越高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 742,
      "start": 1631.0,
      "end": 1634.366,
      "text": "一开始这些公司历史上都是非常有钱的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 743,
      "start": 1634.366,
      "end": 1636.6,
      "text": "都是可以去靠烧自己的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 744,
      "start": 1636.6,
      "end": 1638.266,
      "text": "Cash flow（现金流）来做的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 745,
      "start": 1638.266,
      "end": 1641.2,
      "text": "但到现在这个肯定是不行了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 746,
      "start": 1641.2,
      "end": 1642.766,
      "text": "再往下就是它们各自",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 747,
      "start": 1642.766,
      "end": 1645.333,
      "text": "像Meta, Microsoft, Amazon",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 748,
      "start": 1645.333,
      "end": 1647.9,
      "text": "都发自己的企业债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 749,
      "start": 1648.133,
      "end": 1651.733,
      "text": "再往下就是这种projet base（项目制）的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 750,
      "start": 1651.733,
      "end": 1652.566,
      "text": "Financing（融资）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 751,
      "start": 1652.566,
      "end": 1653.8,
      "text": "或者是joint venture（合资）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 752,
      "start": 1653.8,
      "end": 1656.2,
      "text": "再有它们会帮着",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 753,
      "start": 1656.2,
      "end": 1660.366,
      "text": "像CoreWeave, Nebius这些来发它们的债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 754,
      "start": 1660.366,
      "end": 1661.566,
      "text": "再往下走",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 755,
      "start": 1661.566,
      "end": 1665.7,
      "text": "其实就是一些像以GPU作为抵押品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 756,
      "start": 1665.7,
      "end": 1666.933,
      "text": "这以前都没有",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 757,
      "start": 1666.933,
      "end": 1669.133,
      "text": "所以你从这个风险的角度来讲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 758,
      "start": 1669.133,
      "end": 1672.366,
      "text": "其实就是从上往下慢慢慢慢去往上走的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 759,
      "start": 1672.366,
      "end": 1674.433,
      "text": "当然 在这场AI军备竞赛当中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 760,
      "start": 1674.433,
      "end": 1676.333,
      "text": "需要借钱的不止巨头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 761,
      "start": 1676.333,
      "end": 1678.2,
      "text": "而华尔街也为所有人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 762,
      "start": 1678.2,
      "end": 1681.066,
      "text": "准备了一整套丰富的金融产品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 763,
      "start": 1681.066,
      "end": 1682.733,
      "text": "其中最值得关注的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 764,
      "start": 1682.733,
      "end": 1685.166,
      "text": "就是用显卡作为抵押品的贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 765,
      "start": 1685.333,
      "end": 1687.566,
      "text": "比如说这家非常大的保险公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 766,
      "start": 1687.566,
      "end": 1689.233,
      "text": "它们已经做了一些",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 767,
      "start": 1689.233,
      "end": 1691.233,
      "text": "比如类似于Meta这样的债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 768,
      "start": 1691.233,
      "end": 1693.9,
      "text": "但是它们其实之前没有做过GPU相关的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 769,
      "start": 1693.9,
      "end": 1695.6,
      "text": "现在它们也去尝试说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 770,
      "start": 1695.6,
      "end": 1696.933,
      "text": "要去做GPU相关的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 771,
      "start": 1696.933,
      "end": 1699.6,
      "text": "这种相对短期一点的credit（信用债）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 772,
      "start": 1699.6,
      "end": 1701.766,
      "text": "它们讨论的点是说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 773,
      "start": 1701.766,
      "end": 1703.666,
      "text": "这是一个比较新的尝试",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 774,
      "start": 1703.666,
      "end": 1705.966,
      "text": "对于它们的portfolio（投资组合）里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 775,
      "start": 1705.966,
      "end": 1708.066,
      "text": "GPU其实和数据中心都算AI",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 776,
      "start": 1708.066,
      "end": 1710.766,
      "text": "但是算不同的配置",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 777,
      "start": 1710.766,
      "end": 1711.8,
      "text": "2023年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 778,
      "start": 1711.8,
      "end": 1714.5,
      "text": "AI云服务商CoreWeave想要借这种钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 779,
      "start": 1714.5,
      "end": 1716.8,
      "text": "大约要付15%的利息",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 780,
      "start": 1716.8,
      "end": 1717.866,
      "text": "而到了今年3月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 781,
      "start": 1717.866,
      "end": 1721.3,
      "text": "这种贷款的利息已经降到了大约5.9%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 782,
      "start": 1721.3,
      "end": 1724.233,
      "text": "而且还能够拿到投资级评级",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 783,
      "start": 1724.233,
      "end": 1726.566,
      "text": "也就是说在不到三年的时间当中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 784,
      "start": 1726.566,
      "end": 1728.233,
      "text": "华尔街就已经把显卡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 785,
      "start": 1728.233,
      "end": 1730.133,
      "text": "认成了一种新的硬资产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 786,
      "start": 1730.133,
      "end": 1732.933,
      "text": "而且这种资产的边界还在往外推",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 787,
      "start": 1732.933,
      "end": 1733.633,
      "text": "今年7月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 788,
      "start": 1733.633,
      "end": 1736.233,
      "text": "一家2026年才成立的推理云公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 789,
      "start": 1736.233,
      "end": 1737.333,
      "text": "General Compute",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 790,
      "start": 1737.333,
      "end": 1739.033,
      "text": "用一批推理专用芯片",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 791,
      "start": 1739.033,
      "end": 1740.866,
      "text": "借到了4亿美元的贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 792,
      "start": 1740.866,
      "end": 1742.3,
      "text": "这也是推理芯片",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 793,
      "start": 1742.3,
      "end": 1745.333,
      "text": "第一次成为大额AI贷款的主要抵押品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 794,
      "start": 1745.333,
      "end": 1746.366,
      "text": "而就在不久之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 795,
      "start": 1746.366,
      "end": 1748.233,
      "text": "把显卡变成资产这件事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 796,
      "start": 1748.233,
      "end": 1749.966,
      "text": "被推到了一个新的高度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 797,
      "start": 1749.966,
      "end": 1750.666,
      "text": "8月10号",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 798,
      "start": 1750.666,
      "end": 1753.0,
      "text": "黄仁勋亲自在推特上发表长文",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 799,
      "start": 1753.0,
      "end": 1757.333,
      "text": "标题叫《英伟达的AI算力正在成为一种可投资的资产类别》",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 800,
      "start": 1757.333,
      "end": 1758.466,
      "text": "黄仁勋在文中宣布",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 801,
      "start": 1758.466,
      "end": 1760.366,
      "text": "联合阿波罗、贝莱德、黑石",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 802,
      "start": 1760.366,
      "end": 1762.8,
      "text": "Brookfield、高盛、KKR这六家机构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 803,
      "start": 1762.8,
      "end": 1765.166,
      "text": "成立专门的AI算力融资平台",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 804,
      "start": 1765.166,
      "end": 1769.266,
      "text": "目标是撬动超过5000亿美元的第三方资本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 805,
      "start": 1769.266,
      "end": 1770.266,
      "text": "英伟达特意说明",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 806,
      "start": 1770.266,
      "end": 1772.133,
      "text": "这5000亿不是它自己的收入",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 807,
      "start": 1772.133,
      "end": 1773.533,
      "text": "也不是某一只基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 808,
      "start": 1773.533,
      "end": 1775.533,
      "text": "或者对某一个客户的承诺",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 809,
      "start": 1775.533,
      "end": 1776.466,
      "text": "而是这些平台",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 810,
      "start": 1776.466,
      "end": 1779.066,
      "text": "未来要动员的社会资本总量",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 811,
      "start": 1779.066,
      "end": 1779.933,
      "text": "你会发现",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 812,
      "start": 1779.933,
      "end": 1780.966,
      "text": "这六个名字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 813,
      "start": 1780.966,
      "end": 1783.733,
      "text": "我们在前面几乎全部都见到过",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 814,
      "start": 1783.733,
      "end": 1785.0,
      "text": "他在文章里面写",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 815,
      "start": 1785.0,
      "end": 1786.8,
      "text": "“在AI时代 算力就是收入”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 816,
      "start": 1786.8,
      "end": 1788.0,
      "text": "并且认为AI工厂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 817,
      "start": 1788.0,
      "end": 1790.233,
      "text": "可以像基础设施一样被融资",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 818,
      "start": 1790.233,
      "end": 1792.666,
      "text": "但是一样东西要能够被当成抵押品",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 819,
      "start": 1792.666,
      "end": 1794.566,
      "text": "光能产生收入还不够",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 820,
      "start": 1794.566,
      "end": 1796.0,
      "text": "还得回答另外一个问题",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 821,
      "start": 1796.0,
      "end": 1798.733,
      "text": "也就是 几年之后它还值多少钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 822,
      "start": 1798.733,
      "end": 1800.9,
      "text": "黄仁勋的回答分两层",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 823,
      "start": 1800.9,
      "end": 1803.4,
      "text": "第一层是拿市场价格说话",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 824,
      "start": 1803.4,
      "end": 1805.166,
      "text": "他说 2020年推出的A100",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 825,
      "start": 1805.166,
      "end": 1807.033,
      "text": "六年之后仍然在商用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 826,
      "start": 1807.033,
      "end": 1809.966,
      "text": "经济寿命正在往十年这个数字上靠",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 827,
      "start": 1809.966,
      "end": 1811.866,
      "text": "而H100的一年租赁价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 828,
      "start": 1811.866,
      "end": 1814.966,
      "text": "从2025年的10月每卡时约1.7美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 829,
      "start": 1814.966,
      "end": 1817.933,
      "text": "涨到了今年3月的大约3.35美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 830,
      "start": 1817.933,
      "end": 1820.666,
      "text": "显卡本身的赚钱能力也上来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 831,
      "start": 1820.666,
      "end": 1822.966,
      "text": "第二层 是英伟达自己下场兜底",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 832,
      "start": 1822.966,
      "end": 1824.366,
      "text": "黄仁勋在推文里称",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 833,
      "start": 1824.366,
      "end": 1825.333,
      "text": "在部分项目上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 834,
      "start": 1825.333,
      "end": 1827.766,
      "text": "英伟达可能会为其中最多25%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 835,
      "start": 1827.766,
      "end": 1829.533,
      "text": "提供一种“残值支持”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 836,
      "start": 1829.533,
      "end": 1831.1,
      "text": "并且强调这个比例",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 837,
      "start": 1831.1,
      "end": 1834.266,
      "text": "比市面上其他算力融资安排要低得多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 838,
      "start": 1834.533,
      "end": 1837.1,
      "text": "你看 “残值支持”这四个字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 839,
      "start": 1837.1,
      "end": 1838.9,
      "text": "我们在之前讲Hyperion的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 840,
      "start": 1838.9,
      "end": 1841.8,
      "text": "273亿美元债务的时候就提到过",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 841,
      "start": 1841.8,
      "end": 1843.033,
      "text": "在这笔贷款当中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 842,
      "start": 1843.033,
      "end": 1846.3,
      "text": "就是Meta为数据中心提供了残值担保",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 843,
      "start": 1846.3,
      "end": 1847.833,
      "text": "现在 站出来兜底的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 844,
      "start": 1847.833,
      "end": 1851.233,
      "text": "不光只是租楼的人 连卖卡的人也来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 845,
      "start": 1851.366,
      "end": 1853.733,
      "text": "任何一个东西都有一个price（价格）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 846,
      "start": 1853.733,
      "end": 1855.633,
      "text": "只要这个price是对的就好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 847,
      "start": 1855.633,
      "end": 1857.3,
      "text": "就是白菜再烂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 848,
      "start": 1857.7,
      "end": 1860.2,
      "text": "但只要它的价格足够低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 849,
      "start": 1860.2,
      "end": 1861.333,
      "text": "可能也能做个好菜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 850,
      "start": 1861.333,
      "end": 1862.466,
      "text": "它的这个lifetime（使用寿命）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 851,
      "start": 1862.466,
      "end": 1863.933,
      "text": "不像你的数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 852,
      "start": 1863.933,
      "end": 1865.866,
      "text": "你可以是10年、20年的duration（久期）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 853,
      "start": 1865.866,
      "end": 1867.266,
      "text": "你（GPU）这可能就是5年以内",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 854,
      "start": 1867.266,
      "end": 1869.333,
      "text": "在这种情况下 你的风险是多少",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 855,
      "start": 1869.333,
      "end": 1870.366,
      "text": "我觉得还是回到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 856,
      "start": 1870.366,
      "end": 1872.166,
      "text": "Price是不是justify（说得通）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 857,
      "start": 1872.166,
      "end": 1873.766,
      "text": "你通过这种方式借钱的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 858,
      "start": 1873.766,
      "end": 1876.766,
      "text": "可能你就是整个风险链条上面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 859,
      "start": 1876.766,
      "end": 1878.066,
      "text": "风险最高的那一批",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 860,
      "start": 1878.066,
      "end": 1880.733,
      "text": "第二种主流贷款是资产证券化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 861,
      "start": 1880.733,
      "end": 1882.266,
      "text": "也就是ABS",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 862,
      "start": 1882.266,
      "end": 1885.233,
      "text": "它把数据中心租约的未来租金打包成证券",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 863,
      "start": 1885.233,
      "end": 1887.733,
      "text": "切成从AAA到BB不同的档",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 864,
      "start": 1887.733,
      "end": 1890.4,
      "text": "卖给风险偏好不同的投资人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 865,
      "start": 1890.4,
      "end": 1893.866,
      "text": "目前这类证券的市场存量大约340亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 866,
      "start": 1893.866,
      "end": 1894.7,
      "text": "而机构预测",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 867,
      "start": 1894.7,
      "end": 1898.033,
      "text": "光今年一年的新发行量就会冲到500亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 868,
      "start": 1898.033,
      "end": 1900.0,
      "text": "第三类稍微有点复杂",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 869,
      "start": 1900.0,
      "end": 1902.766,
      "text": "叫做风险转移 SRT",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 870,
      "start": 1902.766,
      "end": 1903.533,
      "text": "它的做法是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 871,
      "start": 1903.533,
      "end": 1905.833,
      "text": "银行把贷款留在自己账上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 872,
      "start": 1905.833,
      "end": 1908.6,
      "text": "但是向私募基金买一份“首损保险”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 873,
      "start": 1908.6,
      "end": 1910.466,
      "text": "把赔付的风险转嫁出去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 874,
      "start": 1910.466,
      "end": 1912.633,
      "text": "但是贷款还挂在自己名下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 875,
      "start": 1912.633,
      "end": 1914.9,
      "text": "这样更多的资本就可以被释放出来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 876,
      "start": 1914.9,
      "end": 1916.8,
      "text": "再拿去放新的贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 877,
      "start": 1916.8,
      "end": 1919.4,
      "text": "而SRT已经是一个万亿级的市场了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 878,
      "start": 1919.4,
      "end": 1921.333,
      "text": "而且越来越多的SRT",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 879,
      "start": 1921.333,
      "end": 1923.633,
      "text": "被用在AI相关的贷款上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 880,
      "start": 1923.633,
      "end": 1924.966,
      "text": "到这里 我们看懂了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 881,
      "start": 1924.966,
      "end": 1927.133,
      "text": "这些债是如何被藏起来的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 882,
      "start": 1927.133,
      "end": 1929.5,
      "text": "也聊了华尔街是怎么在这之上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 883,
      "start": 1929.5,
      "end": 1931.033,
      "text": "把资本玩出了花",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 884,
      "start": 1931.033,
      "end": 1932.733,
      "text": "但是这里还有个问题",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 885,
      "start": 1932.733,
      "end": 1934.633,
      "text": "新盖的这些数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 886,
      "start": 1934.633,
      "end": 1936.9,
      "text": "产权到底在谁手上呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 887,
      "start": 1940.533,
      "end": 1942.866,
      "text": "我们把刚才那些贷款交易背后的名字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 888,
      "start": 1942.866,
      "end": 1944.066,
      "text": "认真梳理一遍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 889,
      "start": 1944.066,
      "end": 1946.3,
      "text": "会发现来来回回就那么几个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 890,
      "start": 1946.3,
      "end": 1948.5,
      "text": "Blue Owl、Brookfield、PIMCO",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 891,
      "start": 1948.5,
      "end": 1950.733,
      "text": "黑石、KKR、贝莱德",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 892,
      "start": 1950.733,
      "end": 1953.4,
      "text": "没错 它们就是这些巨额“数据中心债”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 893,
      "start": 1953.4,
      "end": 1955.0,
      "text": "背后的话事人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 894,
      "start": 1955.0,
      "end": 1956.666,
      "text": "而且更想不到的是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 895,
      "start": 1956.666,
      "end": 1958.8,
      "text": "它们早在AI浪潮还没出现之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 896,
      "start": 1958.8,
      "end": 1961.2,
      "text": "就已经在盘算着这门生意了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 897,
      "start": 1961.2,
      "end": 1964.166,
      "text": "我们先把时间拨回到2021年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 898,
      "start": 1964.166,
      "end": 1966.266,
      "text": "那一年 全球数据中心的并购金额",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 899,
      "start": 1966.266,
      "end": 1967.666,
      "text": "是490亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 900,
      "start": 1967.666,
      "end": 1969.4,
      "text": "创下了当时的纪录",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 901,
      "start": 1969.4,
      "end": 1970.6,
      "text": "随后的2022年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 902,
      "start": 1970.6,
      "end": 1973.433,
      "text": "这个金额维持在了480亿美元的位置",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 903,
      "start": 1973.433,
      "end": 1975.5,
      "text": "一共187笔交易",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 904,
      "start": 1975.5,
      "end": 1979.533,
      "text": "这些并购资金里 有91%来自私募资本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 905,
      "start": 1979.533,
      "end": 1981.166,
      "text": "而平均每一笔交易的规模",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 906,
      "start": 1981.166,
      "end": 1983.033,
      "text": "从2018年的8000万美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 907,
      "start": 1983.033,
      "end": 1985.6,
      "text": "涨到了2022年的2.35亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 908,
      "start": 1985.6,
      "end": 1987.9,
      "text": "四年翻了将近三倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 909,
      "start": 1987.9,
      "end": 1989.966,
      "text": "你可能以为它们买的是服务器",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 910,
      "start": 1989.966,
      "end": 1993.0,
      "text": "但其实买的是数据中心的楼、土地",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 911,
      "start": 1993.0,
      "end": 1995.233,
      "text": "还有已经接进来的电网",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 912,
      "start": 1995.233,
      "end": 1996.5,
      "text": "后来在2023年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 913,
      "start": 1996.5,
      "end": 1999.233,
      "text": "由于加息 并购金额短暂下跌",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 914,
      "start": 1999.233,
      "end": 2001.933,
      "text": "但是从2024年开始 年年创下新高",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 915,
      "start": 2001.933,
      "end": 2005.4,
      "text": "其中84%的钱也是来自私募资本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 916,
      "start": 2005.5,
      "end": 2008.033,
      "text": "为什么这些资管巨头会早早地",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 917,
      "start": 2008.033,
      "end": 2009.966,
      "text": "就看上了这些地皮呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 918,
      "start": 2009.966,
      "end": 2011.466,
      "text": "答案其实也很简单",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 919,
      "start": 2011.466,
      "end": 2012.8,
      "text": "因为数据中心的租客",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 920,
      "start": 2012.8,
      "end": 2016.1,
      "text": "是全世界信用最好的一批公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 921,
      "start": 2016.533,
      "end": 2018.566,
      "text": "新冠疫情以来 线上办公的普及",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 922,
      "start": 2018.566,
      "end": 2021.1,
      "text": "开始让云计算进入华尔街的视线",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 923,
      "start": 2021.1,
      "end": 2022.933,
      "text": "但是数据中心极其烧钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 924,
      "start": 2022.933,
      "end": 2025.633,
      "text": "托管商自己盖不起 只能拉人合伙",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 925,
      "start": 2025.633,
      "end": 2028.4,
      "text": "而参与进来的租客是投资级的云巨头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 926,
      "start": 2028.4,
      "end": 2031.033,
      "text": "而且一签就是十几年的长约",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 927,
      "start": 2031.033,
      "end": 2032.166,
      "text": "于是在华尔街眼里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 928,
      "start": 2032.166,
      "end": 2034.8,
      "text": "数据中心就不再是一门科技生意了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 929,
      "start": 2034.8,
      "end": 2038.0,
      "text": "而是一笔类似基础设施的稳定收益",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 930,
      "start": 2038.0,
      "end": 2040.2,
      "text": "而在那个利率几乎为零的时代",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 931,
      "start": 2040.2,
      "end": 2041.9,
      "text": "手握大把现金的养老金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 932,
      "start": 2041.9,
      "end": 2043.933,
      "text": "和主权财富基金要找的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 933,
      "start": 2043.933,
      "end": 2045.966,
      "text": "正好就是这类资产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 934,
      "start": 2045.966,
      "end": 2047.466,
      "text": "所以早在AI之前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 935,
      "start": 2047.466,
      "end": 2049.366,
      "text": "华尔街就已经把托管数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 936,
      "start": 2049.366,
      "end": 2051.633,
      "text": "做成了一笔收租生意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 937,
      "start": 2051.633,
      "end": 2055.0,
      "text": "我们来看看两个比较典型的案例",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 938,
      "start": 2055.0,
      "end": 2056.3,
      "text": "2023年12月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 939,
      "start": 2056.3,
      "end": 2059.166,
      "text": "黑石和数据中心地产商Digital Realty",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 940,
      "start": 2059.166,
      "end": 2062.266,
      "text": "成立了一家70亿美元的开发合资公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 941,
      "start": 2062.266,
      "end": 2063.233,
      "text": "股权比例是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 942,
      "start": 2063.233,
      "end": 2066.833,
      "text": "黑石占80% Digital Realty占20%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 943,
      "start": 2066.833,
      "end": 2068.066,
      "text": "2024年10月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 944,
      "start": 2068.066,
      "end": 2070.9,
      "text": "全球最大的数据中心托管商Equinix",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 945,
      "start": 2070.9,
      "end": 2074.133,
      "text": "拉上新加坡政府投资公司和加拿大养老金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 946,
      "start": 2074.133,
      "end": 2074.866,
      "text": "成立了一家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 947,
      "start": 2074.866,
      "end": 2077.9,
      "text": "规模超过150亿美元的合资公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 948,
      "start": 2077.9,
      "end": 2081.2,
      "text": "这一次两家出资方各占37.5%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 949,
      "start": 2081.2,
      "end": 2083.9,
      "text": "Equinix自己留着25%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 950,
      "start": 2083.9,
      "end": 2085.566,
      "text": "所以回过头来看",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 951,
      "start": 2085.566,
      "end": 2087.266,
      "text": "Meta的“八二开”股权结构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 952,
      "start": 2087.266,
      "end": 2088.933,
      "text": "其实早就已经有了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 953,
      "start": 2088.933,
      "end": 2091.233,
      "text": "比例都是一模一样的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 954,
      "start": 2091.233,
      "end": 2093.266,
      "text": "也就是说 到2023年为止",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 955,
      "start": 2093.266,
      "end": 2095.966,
      "text": "AI数据中心这门生意需要的东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 956,
      "start": 2095.966,
      "end": 2097.666,
      "text": "其实就已经齐了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 957,
      "start": 2097.666,
      "end": 2100.466,
      "text": "结构是现成的 租客是现成的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 958,
      "start": 2100.466,
      "end": 2102.433,
      "text": "连比例都是现成的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 959,
      "start": 2102.433,
      "end": 2104.966,
      "text": "但是这里还有一个问题没有被解释",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 960,
      "start": 2104.966,
      "end": 2106.5,
      "text": "为什么这么大的一笔钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 961,
      "start": 2106.5,
      "end": 2108.433,
      "text": "都是私募资本在出呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 962,
      "start": 2108.733,
      "end": 2111.866,
      "text": "这就要聊到传统银行的败退了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 963,
      "start": 2115.9,
      "end": 2118.5,
      "text": "按理说 这本应该是银行接的活",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 964,
      "start": 2118.5,
      "end": 2120.3,
      "text": "但是恰恰就在这个时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 965,
      "start": 2120.3,
      "end": 2123.366,
      "text": "本来最该干这件事情的人先退场了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 966,
      "start": 2123.366,
      "end": 2124.733,
      "text": "为什么我们说在金融危机以前",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 967,
      "start": 2124.733,
      "end": 2125.733,
      "text": "没有这个行业private credit（私募信贷）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 968,
      "start": 2125.733,
      "end": 2127.866,
      "text": "就有一些小公司放高利贷",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 969,
      "start": 2127.866,
      "end": 2129.633,
      "text": "为什么过去20年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 970,
      "start": 2129.633,
      "end": 2131.1,
      "text": "就形成了一个巨大无比的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 971,
      "start": 2131.1,
      "end": 2131.933,
      "text": "Private credit（私募信贷）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 972,
      "start": 2131.933,
      "end": 2133.0,
      "text": "很大一个原因在于",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 973,
      "start": 2133.0,
      "end": 2138.133,
      "text": "国家说银行不允许参与这种高风险的活动",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 974,
      "start": 2138.666,
      "end": 2141.7,
      "text": "银行不参与 但是这个需求还是在的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 975,
      "start": 2141.7,
      "end": 2142.8,
      "text": "那谁来做呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 976,
      "start": 2142.8,
      "end": 2145.033,
      "text": "于是private credit（私募信贷）出现了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 977,
      "start": 2145.166,
      "end": 2147.333,
      "text": "它实际上就是一个银行的补充",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 978,
      "start": 2147.333,
      "end": 2148.266,
      "text": "高利贷很多时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 979,
      "start": 2148.266,
      "end": 2150.833,
      "text": "银行因为监管的原因、杠杆的限制不能做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 980,
      "start": 2150.833,
      "end": 2152.666,
      "text": "好 你不做 我做",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 981,
      "start": 2153.166,
      "end": 2155.2,
      "text": "所以这个行业才出现了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 982,
      "start": 2155.2,
      "end": 2156.6,
      "text": "也就是说 这个行业",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 983,
      "start": 2156.6,
      "end": 2159.5,
      "text": "本来就是替银行去做银行不能做的事",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 984,
      "start": 2159.5,
      "end": 2163.5,
      "text": "而2023年 这条边界又往外推了一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 985,
      "start": 2163.5,
      "end": 2165.766,
      "text": "2023年3月 硅谷银行倒闭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 986,
      "start": 2165.766,
      "end": 2167.6,
      "text": "引发了一连串银行危机",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 987,
      "start": 2167.6,
      "end": 2169.766,
      "text": "同年7月 美国监管机构出台了一份",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 988,
      "start": 2169.766,
      "end": 2171.466,
      "text": "名为“巴塞尔协议Ⅲ终局”的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 989,
      "start": 2171.466,
      "end": 2172.8,
      "text": "资本规则草案",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 990,
      "start": 2172.8,
      "end": 2175.2,
      "text": "按这份草案 银行账上每多留一笔",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 991,
      "start": 2175.2,
      "end": 2177.8,
      "text": "超长期限的大金额定制贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 992,
      "start": 2177.8,
      "end": 2180.9,
      "text": "需要占用的自有资本就会明显上升",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 993,
      "start": 2180.9,
      "end": 2181.9,
      "text": "所谓自有资本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 994,
      "start": 2181.9,
      "end": 2185.1,
      "text": "就是指银行股东自己投进来的那部分钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 995,
      "start": 2185.1,
      "end": 2187.4,
      "text": "监管要求银行每放一笔贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 996,
      "start": 2187.4,
      "end": 2190.866,
      "text": "都得从这部分钱里面拿出一块垫在下面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 997,
      "start": 2190.866,
      "end": 2192.2,
      "text": "万一贷款收不回来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 998,
      "start": 2192.2,
      "end": 2194.566,
      "text": "先亏股东 不亏储户",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 999,
      "start": 2194.566,
      "end": 2196.833,
      "text": "一笔贷款占用的自有资本越多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1000,
      "start": 2196.833,
      "end": 2198.933,
      "text": "能放出去贷款的股本就越少",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1001,
      "start": 2198.933,
      "end": 2201.833,
      "text": "于是整个银行业开始收缩资产负债表",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1002,
      "start": 2201.833,
      "end": 2205.066,
      "text": "对长期、大额、又不标准的资产格外谨慎",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1003,
      "start": 2205.066,
      "end": 2206.9,
      "text": "而数据中心 恰好就是银行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1004,
      "start": 2206.9,
      "end": 2210.0,
      "text": "最不想留在自己账上的那一类资产了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1005,
      "start": 2210.0,
      "end": 2212.2,
      "text": "它们的期限动辄十几年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1006,
      "start": 2212.2,
      "end": 2215.4,
      "text": "单笔金额巨大 而且高度非标准化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1007,
      "start": 2215.4,
      "end": 2217.6,
      "text": "但是私募资本就正好相反了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1008,
      "start": 2217.6,
      "end": 2220.2,
      "text": "它们背后是保险年金和养老金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1009,
      "start": 2220.2,
      "end": 2223.6,
      "text": "那是真正的耐心资本 正好对得上胃口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1010,
      "start": 2223.6,
      "end": 2225.533,
      "text": "于是 AI基建就逐渐变成了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1011,
      "start": 2225.533,
      "end": 2227.366,
      "text": "私募信贷的主战场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1012,
      "start": 2227.366,
      "end": 2228.8,
      "text": "而传统银行的角色",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1013,
      "start": 2228.8,
      "end": 2231.466,
      "text": "则是越来越向“中介”去靠拢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1014,
      "start": 2231.566,
      "end": 2233.2,
      "text": "我们视频前面提到过",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1015,
      "start": 2233.2,
      "end": 2235.566,
      "text": "过去十年 私募信贷最大的一块生意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1016,
      "start": 2235.566,
      "end": 2237.3,
      "text": "其实是SaaS软件",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1017,
      "start": 2237.3,
      "end": 2239.3,
      "text": "私募基金们已经放给软件公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1018,
      "start": 2239.3,
      "end": 2241.466,
      "text": "但目前还没有还完的贷款余额",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1019,
      "start": 2241.466,
      "end": 2242.9,
      "text": "也就是存量贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1020,
      "start": 2242.9,
      "end": 2245.066,
      "text": "从2015年的不到80亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1021,
      "start": 2245.066,
      "end": 2248.0,
      "text": "涨到了2025年年底的五千多亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1022,
      "start": 2248.0,
      "end": 2251.4,
      "text": "是占到私募信贷直接贷款的大约19%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1023,
      "start": 2251.4,
      "end": 2252.0,
      "text": "也就是说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1024,
      "start": 2252.0,
      "end": 2254.3,
      "text": "私募基金“自掏腰包”借出去的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1025,
      "start": 2254.3,
      "end": 2256.866,
      "text": "五分之一都给了SaaS公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1026,
      "start": 2256.866,
      "end": 2258.1,
      "text": "而AI相关的贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1027,
      "start": 2258.1,
      "end": 2259.733,
      "text": "存量则是在最近三年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1028,
      "start": 2259.733,
      "end": 2262.0,
      "text": "从零涨到了两千多亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1029,
      "start": 2262.0,
      "end": 2265.4,
      "text": "占比从不到1%涨到了接近8%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1030,
      "start": 2265.4,
      "end": 2267.866,
      "text": "现在 投AI相关领域的私募信贷基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1031,
      "start": 2267.866,
      "end": 2271.433,
      "text": "比例从十年前的5%涨到了20%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1032,
      "start": 2271.433,
      "end": 2272.766,
      "text": "而按交易笔数算",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1033,
      "start": 2272.766,
      "end": 2276.066,
      "text": "AI相关的交易已经占到了34%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1034,
      "start": 2276.066,
      "end": 2277.866,
      "text": "市场这一头也在变",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1035,
      "start": 2277.866,
      "end": 2279.8,
      "text": "像我们前面提到的Hyperion",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1036,
      "start": 2279.8,
      "end": 2281.633,
      "text": "这样的私募配售债券",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1037,
      "start": 2281.633,
      "end": 2282.966,
      "text": "在数据中心这个领域",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1038,
      "start": 2282.966,
      "end": 2285.233,
      "text": "去年底还几乎是一片空白",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1039,
      "start": 2285.233,
      "end": 2286.2,
      "text": "但有统计显示",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1040,
      "start": 2286.2,
      "end": 2289.4,
      "text": "现在这个市场已经增长了400多亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1041,
      "start": 2289.4,
      "end": 2290.366,
      "text": "而未来的三年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1042,
      "start": 2290.366,
      "end": 2292.966,
      "text": "AI基建预计还要从私募信贷手里面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1043,
      "start": 2292.966,
      "end": 2294.6,
      "text": "拿走8000亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1044,
      "start": 2294.6,
      "end": 2297.966,
      "text": "比软件用十年攒下来的存量还要多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1045,
      "start": 2297.966,
      "end": 2299.033,
      "text": "那是不是可以说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1046,
      "start": 2299.033,
      "end": 2301.033,
      "text": "AI数据中心背后的话事人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1047,
      "start": 2301.033,
      "end": 2303.966,
      "text": "已经从银行换成了这些资管巨头呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1048,
      "start": 2303.966,
      "end": 2304.766,
      "text": "不用神话",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1049,
      "start": 2304.766,
      "end": 2307.066,
      "text": "我觉得他们就是一个提供资金的渠道而已",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1050,
      "start": 2307.066,
      "end": 2308.333,
      "text": "你可以在公开市场上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1051,
      "start": 2308.333,
      "end": 2309.6,
      "text": "Investment grade（投资级）去发债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 1052,
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      "end": 2310.033,
      "text": "你可以在",
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      "id": 1053,
      "start": 2310.033,
      "end": 2310.866,
      "text": "High yield market（高收益债市场）上",
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    },
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      "id": 1054,
      "start": 2310.866,
      "end": 2311.466,
      "text": "去发债",
      "source": "source_caption",
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    },
    {
      "id": 1055,
      "start": 2311.466,
      "end": 2312.866,
      "text": "再往下 你借不到钱了",
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    },
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      "id": 1056,
      "start": 2312.866,
      "end": 2313.733,
      "text": "你就有各种各样的",
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    },
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      "id": 1057,
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      "end": 2316.633,
      "text": "你就把它想象成高利贷",
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      "id": 1058,
      "start": 2316.633,
      "end": 2319.7,
      "text": "我觉得就是大家做各自该做的事情",
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    },
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      "id": 1059,
      "start": 2319.7,
      "end": 2321.066,
      "text": "挣自己该挣的钱",
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    },
    {
      "id": 1060,
      "start": 2321.066,
      "end": 2321.666,
      "text": "另外一方面",
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    },
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      "id": 1061,
      "start": 2321.666,
      "end": 2323.766,
      "text": "在AI基建这波大浪潮当中",
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    },
    {
      "id": 1062,
      "start": 2323.766,
      "end": 2324.9,
      "text": "资管巨头的地位",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 1063,
      "start": 2324.9,
      "end": 2327.3,
      "text": "可能没有它们以为的那么稳",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 1064,
      "start": 2327.3,
      "end": 2328.033,
      "text": "今年3月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 1065,
      "start": 2328.033,
      "end": 2329.866,
      "text": "“巴塞尔协议Ⅲ终局”的要求",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1066,
      "start": 2329.866,
      "end": 2331.366,
      "text": "被大幅度放松了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1067,
      "start": 2331.366,
      "end": 2334.166,
      "text": "企业贷款的风险权重被调低",
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    },
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      "id": 1068,
      "start": 2334.166,
      "end": 2336.433,
      "text": "在这之前 银行普通企业贷款",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1069,
      "start": 2336.433,
      "end": 2339.566,
      "text": "自己要垫的自有资本是贷款金额的四倍",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1070,
      "start": 2339.566,
      "end": 2341.766,
      "text": "等于直接杀死了这项业务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1071,
      "start": 2341.766,
      "end": 2344.366,
      "text": "银行给普通企业贷款时的资本占用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1072,
      "start": 2344.366,
      "end": 2347.566,
      "text": "从草案里的四倍恢复到了原来的1比1",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1073,
      "start": 2347.566,
      "end": 2349.0,
      "text": "按照监管自己估算",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1074,
      "start": 2349.0,
      "end": 2351.366,
      "text": "这会给银行释放出一万多亿美元的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1075,
      "start": 2351.366,
      "end": 2352.933,
      "text": "新增放贷能力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1076,
      "start": 2352.933,
      "end": 2354.666,
      "text": "比如说 根据报道 摩根大通",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1077,
      "start": 2354.666,
      "end": 2357.566,
      "text": "就已经划出了500亿美元的直贷额度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1078,
      "start": 2357.566,
      "end": 2359.266,
      "text": "所以 传统银行正在回归",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1079,
      "start": 2359.266,
      "end": 2362.0,
      "text": "AI基建的话事权争夺战当中来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1080,
      "start": 2362.0,
      "end": 2364.666,
      "text": "一场精彩的拉锯战可能才刚刚开始",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1081,
      "start": 2364.666,
      "end": 2365.666,
      "text": "但是问题来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1082,
      "start": 2365.666,
      "end": 2367.266,
      "text": "这样庞大的AI债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1083,
      "start": 2367.266,
      "end": 2368.9,
      "text": "这么多资本的玩法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1084,
      "start": 2368.9,
      "end": 2370.3,
      "text": "是否在催生出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1085,
      "start": 2370.3,
      "end": 2372.566,
      "text": "新一轮AI时代的次贷危机呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1086,
      "start": 2376.266,
      "end": 2377.5,
      "text": "2026年4月",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1087,
      "start": 2377.5,
      "end": 2380.466,
      "text": "在Blue Owl基金遭到严重赎回挤兑后不久",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1088,
      "start": 2380.466,
      "end": 2382.866,
      "text": "它发行了一笔4亿美元的新债券",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1089,
      "start": 2382.866,
      "end": 2384.633,
      "text": "结果马上被市场买光了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1090,
      "start": 2384.633,
      "end": 2386.5,
      "text": "这笔债券的买家只有一个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1091,
      "start": 2386.5,
      "end": 2389.0,
      "text": "就是PIMCO太平洋投资管理公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1092,
      "start": 2389.0,
      "end": 2391.2,
      "text": "全球最大的债券投资机构之一",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1093,
      "start": 2391.2,
      "end": 2394.2,
      "text": "手里管着全球两万亿美元以上的资产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1094,
      "start": 2394.2,
      "end": 2396.5,
      "text": "这也就是说 一家私募机构发的债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1095,
      "start": 2396.5,
      "end": 2400.0,
      "text": "被另一家私募机构的基金全部吃掉了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1096,
      "start": 2400.0,
      "end": 2401.033,
      "text": "我们把过去一年",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1097,
      "start": 2401.033,
      "end": 2404.066,
      "text": "最大的几笔数据中心融资摆在一起会发现",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1098,
      "start": 2404.066,
      "end": 2405.433,
      "text": "同样这两个名字",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1099,
      "start": 2405.433,
      "end": 2408.066,
      "text": "出现在了四种完全不同的位置上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1100,
      "start": 2408.066,
      "end": 2411.7,
      "text": "第一笔是Meta的Hyperion 273亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1101,
      "start": 2411.7,
      "end": 2413.833,
      "text": "Blue Owl是股东 持股80%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1102,
      "start": 2413.833,
      "end": 2416.666,
      "text": "PIMCO是那批债券的锚定投资人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1103,
      "start": 2416.666,
      "end": 2419.6,
      "text": "一个出钱建楼 一个借钱给这栋楼",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1104,
      "start": 2419.6,
      "end": 2421.6,
      "text": "第二笔是AI云服务商Nscale",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1105,
      "start": 2421.6,
      "end": 2424.366,
      "text": "那笔14亿美元的GPU担保贷款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1106,
      "start": 2424.366,
      "end": 2426.0,
      "text": "这一次两家换了位置",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1107,
      "start": 2426.0,
      "end": 2428.866,
      "text": "变成了并肩的债主 共同放贷",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1108,
      "start": 2428.866,
      "end": 2431.233,
      "text": "第三笔是Oracle在密歇根的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1109,
      "start": 2431.233,
      "end": 2433.266,
      "text": "163亿美元项目",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1110,
      "start": 2433.266,
      "end": 2434.433,
      "text": "Blue Owl看过之后",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1111,
      "start": 2434.433,
      "end": 2436.6,
      "text": "以“不符合自己的承销标准”退出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1112,
      "start": 2436.6,
      "end": 2438.166,
      "text": "而PIMCO接了下来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1113,
      "start": 2438.166,
      "end": 2439.8,
      "text": "锚定了大约100亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1114,
      "start": 2439.8,
      "end": 2440.533,
      "text": "同一个项目",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1115,
      "start": 2440.533,
      "end": 2443.133,
      "text": "一家觉得不能做 另一家做了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1116,
      "start": 2443.133,
      "end": 2445.633,
      "text": "第四笔就是刚才我们说到的那4亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1117,
      "start": 2445.633,
      "end": 2447.466,
      "text": "这一次 Blue Owl是发行人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1118,
      "start": 2447.466,
      "end": 2449.633,
      "text": "PIMCO是唯一的买家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1119,
      "start": 2449.633,
      "end": 2450.733,
      "text": "所以在一年之内",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1120,
      "start": 2450.733,
      "end": 2453.666,
      "text": "我们看到这两个名字之间的关系换了四种",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1121,
      "start": 2453.666,
      "end": 2455.3,
      "text": "但是无论位置怎么换",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1122,
      "start": 2455.3,
      "end": 2458.9,
      "text": "接盘的钱始终都来自同一个圈子的内部",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1123,
      "start": 2458.9,
      "end": 2461.966,
      "text": "而这件事 监管已经注意到了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1124,
      "start": 2461.966,
      "end": 2463.233,
      "text": "美国金融研究办公室",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1125,
      "start": 2463.233,
      "end": 2465.433,
      "text": "在今年3月的一份简报当中就写道",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1126,
      "start": 2465.433,
      "end": 2467.7,
      "text": "这种集中 凸显了传统金融机构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1127,
      "start": 2467.7,
      "end": 2470.533,
      "text": "与私募信贷生态之间的互联性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1128,
      "start": 2470.533,
      "end": 2472.733,
      "text": "而金融稳定理事会5月的报告当中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1129,
      "start": 2472.733,
      "end": 2474.3,
      "text": "也把这种“银行互联”",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1130,
      "start": 2474.3,
      "end": 2476.833,
      "text": "列为了这个行业的首要脆弱性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1131,
      "start": 2476.833,
      "end": 2477.766,
      "text": "今年第二季度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1132,
      "start": 2477.766,
      "end": 2480.366,
      "text": "投资人一共申请赎回156亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1133,
      "start": 2480.366,
      "end": 2483.0,
      "text": "但是最终只拿回来了59亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1134,
      "start": 2483.0,
      "end": 2485.733,
      "text": "这里的差额并不是基金想赖账",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1135,
      "start": 2485.733,
      "end": 2487.3,
      "text": "这类半流动性基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1136,
      "start": 2487.3,
      "end": 2489.9,
      "text": "普遍设有一个季度赎回上限",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1137,
      "start": 2489.9,
      "end": 2492.633,
      "text": "通常是基金净资产的5%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1138,
      "start": 2492.633,
      "end": 2495.133,
      "text": "申请赎回的金额一旦超过这个上限",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1139,
      "start": 2495.133,
      "end": 2497.3,
      "text": "基金就按比例分配来退款",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1140,
      "start": 2497.3,
      "end": 2499.2,
      "text": "比如说你申请赎回100万",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1141,
      "start": 2499.2,
      "end": 2500.866,
      "text": "可能只批给你38万",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1142,
      "start": 2500.866,
      "end": 2503.7,
      "text": "剩下的要排到下一个季度重新排队",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1143,
      "start": 2503.7,
      "end": 2504.866,
      "text": "而就在同一个季度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1144,
      "start": 2504.866,
      "end": 2507.533,
      "text": "这些基金转身去了债券市场借钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1145,
      "start": 2507.533,
      "end": 2508.933,
      "text": "以管理公司自己的名义",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1146,
      "start": 2508.933,
      "end": 2510.566,
      "text": "发行投资级公司债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1147,
      "start": 2510.566,
      "end": 2513.866,
      "text": "用来补充自有资金、维持继续放贷的能力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1148,
      "start": 2513.866,
      "end": 2516.166,
      "text": "阿波罗、贝莱德、Ares、Blue Owl",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1149,
      "start": 2516.166,
      "end": 2517.733,
      "text": "一家接着一家",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1150,
      "start": 2517.733,
      "end": 2519.966,
      "text": "要知道 这些资管机构拿来的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1151,
      "start": 2519.966,
      "end": 2521.066,
      "text": "并不是自己的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1152,
      "start": 2521.066,
      "end": 2523.6,
      "text": "而是来自保险公司和养老金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1153,
      "start": 2523.6,
      "end": 2526.9,
      "text": "现在 光是养老金已经答应购买的债券",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1154,
      "start": 2526.9,
      "end": 2528.666,
      "text": "但还没支付的金额",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1155,
      "start": 2528.666,
      "end": 2530.4,
      "text": "就有近一千亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1156,
      "start": 2530.4,
      "end": 2532.066,
      "text": "去买这些债券的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1157,
      "start": 2532.066,
      "end": 2534.666,
      "text": "前面的是所谓的叫基金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1158,
      "start": 2534.666,
      "end": 2535.5,
      "text": "不管是long only（只做多）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1159,
      "start": 2535.5,
      "end": 2536.5,
      "text": "还是hedge fund（对冲基金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1160,
      "start": 2536.5,
      "end": 2539.866,
      "text": "还是一些叫银行也好 或是保险公司也好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1161,
      "start": 2539.866,
      "end": 2541.2,
      "text": "但他们背后的钱是谁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1162,
      "start": 2541.2,
      "end": 2544.033,
      "text": "在美国 最大的可能就是pension（养老金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1163,
      "start": 2544.033,
      "end": 2544.6,
      "text": "Endowment（大学捐赠基金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1164,
      "start": 2544.6,
      "end": 2545.533,
      "text": "Foundation（基金会）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1165,
      "start": 2545.533,
      "end": 2546.266,
      "text": "当然 endowment（大学捐赠基金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1166,
      "start": 2546.266,
      "end": 2548.866,
      "text": "Foundation（基金会）只是私人的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1167,
      "start": 2549.633,
      "end": 2550.2,
      "text": "但pension（养老金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1168,
      "start": 2550.2,
      "end": 2551.366,
      "text": "其实相当于是纳税人的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1169,
      "start": 2551.366,
      "end": 2552.6,
      "text": "所以绝大部分的钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1170,
      "start": 2552.6,
      "end": 2554.766,
      "text": "还是来自于pension（养老金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1171,
      "start": 2554.766,
      "end": 2556.066,
      "text": "和sovereign（主权基金）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1172,
      "start": 2556.066,
      "end": 2558.333,
      "text": "换句话说 最后来买单的一定是纳税人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1173,
      "start": 2558.333,
      "end": 2562.1,
      "text": "所以这条资金链看起来是在自己人中间转",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1174,
      "start": 2562.1,
      "end": 2563.266,
      "text": "但是它有一个出口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1175,
      "start": 2563.266,
      "end": 2565.4,
      "text": "就是普通人的退休账户",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1176,
      "start": 2565.4,
      "end": 2568.166,
      "text": "而比这更麻烦的是抵押品这一头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1177,
      "start": 2568.166,
      "end": 2569.566,
      "text": "别的行业借长钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1178,
      "start": 2569.566,
      "end": 2571.8,
      "text": "背后押的是公路、桥梁或者厂房",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1179,
      "start": 2571.8,
      "end": 2574.466,
      "text": "能用几十年 跟债的期限对得上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1180,
      "start": 2574.466,
      "end": 2575.666,
      "text": "而AI相关的债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1181,
      "start": 2575.666,
      "end": 2578.0,
      "text": "背后押的很大一部分是显卡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1182,
      "start": 2578.0,
      "end": 2579.666,
      "text": "巨头们发行的这些公开债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1183,
      "start": 2579.666,
      "end": 2581.933,
      "text": "偿还期限都在几十年以后",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1184,
      "start": 2581.933,
      "end": 2583.633,
      "text": "但是这些钱买回来的显卡",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1185,
      "start": 2583.633,
      "end": 2585.366,
      "text": "五六年就折旧完了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1186,
      "start": 2585.366,
      "end": 2586.8,
      "text": "市场分析报告就指出",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1187,
      "start": 2586.8,
      "end": 2589.066,
      "text": "一块H100显卡 到第三年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1188,
      "start": 2589.066,
      "end": 2591.833,
      "text": "价格只能卖到新品的45%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1189,
      "start": 2592.233,
      "end": 2593.766,
      "text": "但折旧年限这个东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1190,
      "start": 2593.766,
      "end": 2595.866,
      "text": "是科技公司自己定的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1191,
      "start": 2595.866,
      "end": 2598.966,
      "text": "定得长一点 每年摊掉的成本就少一点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1192,
      "start": 2598.966,
      "end": 2601.033,
      "text": "账面上的利润也就更好看一点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1193,
      "start": 2601.033,
      "end": 2603.533,
      "text": "以前我们说depreciation（折旧）理论上",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1194,
      "start": 2603.533,
      "end": 2604.766,
      "text": "不到三年的样子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1195,
      "start": 2604.766,
      "end": 2605.966,
      "text": "现在每一家云商",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1196,
      "start": 2605.966,
      "end": 2608.0,
      "text": "至少这个depreciation（折旧）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1197,
      "start": 2608.0,
      "end": 2609.9,
      "text": "就是六年起、七年起",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1198,
      "start": 2609.9,
      "end": 2610.966,
      "text": "包括大家这个厂房",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1199,
      "start": 2610.966,
      "end": 2612.466,
      "text": "现在从可能10多年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1200,
      "start": 2612.466,
      "end": 2614.266,
      "text": "变成20年、30年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1201,
      "start": 2614.266,
      "end": 2616.5,
      "text": "明显大家都在玩一个会计的把戏",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1202,
      "start": 2616.5,
      "end": 2619.733,
      "text": "但这东西不仅仅是微软自己在玩",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1203,
      "start": 2619.733,
      "end": 2622.366,
      "text": "前面五个人大家都在做这样一个事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1204,
      "start": 2622.7,
      "end": 2624.533,
      "text": "这并不是一个他独创的东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1205,
      "start": 2624.533,
      "end": 2626.466,
      "text": "有做空机构就算过这笔账",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1206,
      "start": 2626.466,
      "end": 2628.966,
      "text": "认为未来三年被少算掉的成本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1207,
      "start": 2628.966,
      "end": 2631.466,
      "text": "是千亿美元级别的数字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1208,
      "start": 2631.666,
      "end": 2633.6,
      "text": "Credit market（信用债市场）其实是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1209,
      "start": 2633.9,
      "end": 2635.2,
      "text": "非常sophisticated（成熟老练）的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1210,
      "start": 2635.2,
      "end": 2635.866,
      "text": "一个市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1211,
      "start": 2635.866,
      "end": 2638.033,
      "text": "我想说这没有对和错的区别",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1212,
      "start": 2638.033,
      "end": 2640.533,
      "text": "它也不代表这个市场疯狂了还是怎么样",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1213,
      "start": 2640.533,
      "end": 2642.2,
      "text": "在这个周期、在这个环境下",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1214,
      "start": 2642.2,
      "end": 2645.4,
      "text": "GPU它就变成了一个相对有价值的资产",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1215,
      "start": 2645.4,
      "end": 2646.433,
      "text": "它有抵押价值",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1216,
      "start": 2646.433,
      "end": 2647.5,
      "text": "那无非是在什么样的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1217,
      "start": 2647.5,
      "end": 2648.333,
      "text": "一个price（价格）上面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1218,
      "start": 2648.333,
      "end": 2649.833,
      "text": "我觉得这是更重要的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1219,
      "start": 2649.833,
      "end": 2652.3,
      "text": "现在 信用违约掉期市场 也就是CDS",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1220,
      "start": 2652.3,
      "end": 2654.766,
      "text": "似乎已经在对这种风险定价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1221,
      "start": 2654.766,
      "end": 2656.2,
      "text": "看过电影《大空头》的朋友",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1222,
      "start": 2656.2,
      "end": 2657.7,
      "text": "应该对这个名字都不陌生",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1223,
      "start": 2657.7,
      "end": 2659.833,
      "text": "它本质上是一份违约保险",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1224,
      "start": 2659.833,
      "end": 2661.066,
      "text": "而这个保险的价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1225,
      "start": 2661.066,
      "end": 2663.833,
      "text": "其实就是市场给违约风险打的分",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1226,
      "start": 2663.833,
      "end": 2666.966,
      "text": "保险越贵 说明市场觉得越危险",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1227,
      "start": 2666.966,
      "end": 2669.233,
      "text": "前不久 Oracle身上的CDS价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1228,
      "start": 2669.233,
      "end": 2670.866,
      "text": "已经打破了历史记录",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1229,
      "start": 2670.866,
      "end": 2673.766,
      "text": "创下2008年金融危机以来的最高水平",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1230,
      "start": 2673.766,
      "end": 2675.766,
      "text": "约203个基点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1231,
      "start": 2675.766,
      "end": 2678.066,
      "text": "那这是不是一个危险的信号呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1232,
      "start": 2678.066,
      "end": 2679.2,
      "text": "最近确实有朋友问",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1233,
      "start": 2679.2,
      "end": 2682.733,
      "text": "说你看这些公司的CDS都在狂飙",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1234,
      "start": 2682.733,
      "end": 2684.533,
      "text": "就拿Oracle来举例子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1235,
      "start": 2684.533,
      "end": 2686.833,
      "text": "在这个之前 Oracle是个什么生意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1236,
      "start": 2687.466,
      "end": 2688.433,
      "text": "它是个cash cow（现金牛）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1237,
      "start": 2688.433,
      "end": 2689.366,
      "text": "没有那么多投入了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1238,
      "start": 2689.366,
      "end": 2692.233,
      "text": "我就是以现有的产品、现有的客户",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1239,
      "start": 2692.666,
      "end": 2693.766,
      "text": "躺在那儿挣钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1240,
      "start": 2693.766,
      "end": 2694.4,
      "text": "大家要理解",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1241,
      "start": 2694.4,
      "end": 2696.066,
      "text": "Credit investor（债权投资人）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1242,
      "start": 2696.066,
      "end": 2697.0,
      "text": "和equity investor（股权投资人）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1243,
      "start": 2697.0,
      "end": 2699.166,
      "text": "看这个问题的思路是完全不一样的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1244,
      "start": 2699.166,
      "end": 2700.866,
      "text": "你像我借钱给Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1245,
      "start": 2700.866,
      "end": 2703.5,
      "text": "我才不关心你后面发展得好不好",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1246,
      "start": 2703.5,
      "end": 2705.766,
      "text": "我只关心一个事情 你会不会倒闭",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1247,
      "start": 2705.766,
      "end": 2708.366,
      "text": "你能不能把这个钱还给我 对不对",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1248,
      "start": 2708.366,
      "end": 2709.7,
      "text": "所以credit（债权）的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1249,
      "start": 2709.7,
      "end": 2711.3,
      "text": "都是担心这个问题的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1250,
      "start": 2711.3,
      "end": 2712.366,
      "text": "但现在Oracle",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1251,
      "start": 2712.366,
      "end": 2715.4,
      "text": "它的商业模式发生了天翻地覆的变化",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1252,
      "start": 2715.4,
      "end": 2716.9,
      "text": "它开始借债 build out（建设）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1253,
      "start": 2716.9,
      "end": 2718.766,
      "text": "你从credit（债权）的角度来讲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1254,
      "start": 2718.766,
      "end": 2720.0,
      "text": "它就不是同一个公司",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1255,
      "start": 2720.0,
      "end": 2722.1,
      "text": "自然它所有和credit（债权）相关的东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1256,
      "start": 2722.1,
      "end": 2723.166,
      "text": "就是会往上涨的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1257,
      "start": 2723.166,
      "end": 2725.133,
      "text": "这叫一个正常的repricing（重新定价）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1258,
      "start": 2725.333,
      "end": 2726.1,
      "text": "我想跟大家讲的是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1259,
      "start": 2726.1,
      "end": 2727.433,
      "text": "这不是一个危险信号",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1260,
      "start": 2727.433,
      "end": 2729.833,
      "text": "这是一个市场在做它应该做的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1261,
      "start": 2729.833,
      "end": 2731.366,
      "text": "它在reprice（重新定价）这个生意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1262,
      "start": 2731.366,
      "end": 2733.433,
      "text": "这些公司会从以前的这种",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1263,
      "start": 2733.633,
      "end": 2735.1,
      "text": "Asset light business（轻资产生意）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1264,
      "start": 2735.1,
      "end": 2736.666,
      "text": "也是free cash flow（自由现金流）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1265,
      "start": 2736.666,
      "end": 2737.4,
      "text": "非常好（的状态）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1266,
      "start": 2737.4,
      "end": 2738.966,
      "text": "它们势必会经历一段",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1267,
      "start": 2739.366,
      "end": 2742.166,
      "text": "它们可能从来没有经历过的建设周期",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1268,
      "start": 2742.5,
      "end": 2743.5,
      "text": "就是free cash flow（自由现金流）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1269,
      "start": 2743.5,
      "end": 2744.033,
      "text": "就是负的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1270,
      "start": 2744.033,
      "end": 2745.033,
      "text": "你要不停地去建设",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1271,
      "start": 2745.033,
      "end": 2746.366,
      "text": "有点就像个石油公司了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1272,
      "start": 2746.366,
      "end": 2747.166,
      "text": "Credit market（信用债市场）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1273,
      "start": 2747.166,
      "end": 2748.7,
      "text": "就是在reprice（重新定价）这个东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1274,
      "start": 2749.066,
      "end": 2750.733,
      "text": "如果市场真的算得出来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1275,
      "start": 2750.733,
      "end": 2752.566,
      "text": "那么它算的到底是什么呢",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1276,
      "start": 2752.866,
      "end": 2755.233,
      "text": "上个月 微软给了我们这样一个机会",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1277,
      "start": 2755.233,
      "end": 2757.366,
      "text": "把这件事看清楚",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1278,
      "start": 2757.366,
      "end": 2759.266,
      "text": "微软宣布 从2027财年起",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1279,
      "start": 2759.266,
      "end": 2761.366,
      "text": "数据中心和办公楼的折旧年限",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1280,
      "start": 2761.366,
      "end": 2763.166,
      "text": "从15年延长到25年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1281,
      "start": 2763.166,
      "end": 2763.866,
      "text": "同时表示",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1282,
      "start": 2763.866,
      "end": 2765.866,
      "text": "未来会有更多的数据中心租赁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1283,
      "start": 2765.866,
      "end": 2768.2,
      "text": "从融资租赁转成经营租赁",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1284,
      "start": 2768.2,
      "end": 2770.533,
      "text": "因此不再计入资本开支",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1285,
      "start": 2770.533,
      "end": 2773.0,
      "text": "这使得2026年的资本开支数字",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1286,
      "start": 2773.0,
      "end": 2777.266,
      "text": "就这样从大约1900亿降到了大约1750亿",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1287,
      "start": 2777.266,
      "end": 2780.2,
      "text": "财报当天 微软股价涨了9%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1288,
      "start": 2780.2,
      "end": 2781.7,
      "text": "那么市场给微软的认可",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1289,
      "start": 2781.7,
      "end": 2784.4,
      "text": "真的是因为一个会计口径的调整吗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1290,
      "start": 2784.4,
      "end": 2786.3,
      "text": "其实跟这个会计口径的统计",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1291,
      "start": 2786.3,
      "end": 2788.6,
      "text": "并没有一个很大的关系",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1292,
      "start": 2788.6,
      "end": 2790.266,
      "text": "可能就大家兴奋了两秒钟",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1293,
      "start": 2790.266,
      "end": 2791.966,
      "text": "但很快华尔街就意识到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1294,
      "start": 2791.966,
      "end": 2793.7,
      "text": "它只是把一个口径改了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1295,
      "start": 2793.7,
      "end": 2796.333,
      "text": "实际上它花的钱并没有任何的区别",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1296,
      "start": 2796.333,
      "end": 2797.766,
      "text": "真正让它股价起来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1297,
      "start": 2797.766,
      "end": 2799.5,
      "text": "是因为它自己的云这一块",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1298,
      "start": 2799.5,
      "end": 2800.433,
      "text": "就是Microsoft Azure",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1299,
      "start": 2800.433,
      "end": 2802.966,
      "text": "它的增速比大家想象得要好很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1300,
      "start": 2802.966,
      "end": 2804.533,
      "text": "因为它超过了40个点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1301,
      "start": 2804.533,
      "end": 2806.466,
      "text": "那就说明 它增速的主要来源",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1302,
      "start": 2806.466,
      "end": 2807.766,
      "text": "是来自于它 AI compute（AI算力）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1303,
      "start": 2807.766,
      "end": 2809.233,
      "text": "这边租赁的结果",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1304,
      "start": 2809.233,
      "end": 2813.333,
      "text": "那就说明你终端背后的需求是很旺盛的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1305,
      "start": 2813.333,
      "end": 2815.4,
      "text": "就说明不管是大企业还是小企业",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1306,
      "start": 2815.4,
      "end": 2816.666,
      "text": "还是做AI的starup（初创公司）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1307,
      "start": 2816.666,
      "end": 2819.133,
      "text": "他们真的是在花现金",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1308,
      "start": 2819.133,
      "end": 2822.433,
      "text": "在租赁微软提供的算力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1309,
      "start": 2822.433,
      "end": 2824.166,
      "text": "（那么）根据你们",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1310,
      "start": 2824.166,
      "end": 2825.466,
      "text": "Charge（收取）客户的一个价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1311,
      "start": 2825.466,
      "end": 2826.466,
      "text": "我们能够算出来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1312,
      "start": 2826.466,
      "end": 2829.066,
      "text": "你们买了个芯片、包含内存",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1313,
      "start": 2829.066,
      "end": 2830.233,
      "text": "建了一个数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1314,
      "start": 2830.233,
      "end": 2833.566,
      "text": "最后大概三年可以回本",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1315,
      "start": 2833.566,
      "end": 2834.4,
      "text": "那你的ROIC（投入资本回报率）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1316,
      "start": 2834.4,
      "end": 2836.2,
      "text": "相对来说就接近30个点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1317,
      "start": 2836.2,
      "end": 2837.166,
      "text": "那是一个比较合理的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1318,
      "start": 2837.166,
      "end": 2837.866,
      "text": "ROIC（投入资本回报率）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1319,
      "start": 2837.866,
      "end": 2840.866,
      "text": "所以他觉得微软的这条路可以走通了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1320,
      "start": 2840.866,
      "end": 2843.066,
      "text": "过去的几周是一个大的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1321,
      "start": 2843.066,
      "end": 2844.433,
      "text": "Risk off（避险）的环境",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1322,
      "start": 2844.433,
      "end": 2846.466,
      "text": "觉得市场reward（奖励）它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1323,
      "start": 2846.466,
      "end": 2848.8,
      "text": "更多的是它的云",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1324,
      "start": 2848.8,
      "end": 2850.433,
      "text": "Azure的这个增长起来了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1325,
      "start": 2850.433,
      "end": 2853.333,
      "text": "同时当时对比Meta",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1326,
      "start": 2853.333,
      "end": 2855.033,
      "text": "Meta就被penalize（惩罚）了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1327,
      "start": 2855.3,
      "end": 2858.033,
      "text": "Meta 我觉得市场去penalize（惩罚）它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1328,
      "start": 2858.033,
      "end": 2859.633,
      "text": "原因也很简单",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1329,
      "start": 2859.766,
      "end": 2861.933,
      "text": "就是你也在花钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1330,
      "start": 2861.933,
      "end": 2864.766,
      "text": "但是你的monetization（变现）的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1331,
      "start": 2864.766,
      "end": 2865.833,
      "text": "Sequence（节奏）不清晰",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1332,
      "start": 2865.833,
      "end": 2867.7,
      "text": "市场是在reward（奖励）你花钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1333,
      "start": 2867.7,
      "end": 2869.866,
      "text": "还是在penalize（惩罚）你花钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1334,
      "start": 2870.133,
      "end": 2873.266,
      "text": "很大程度上取决于当时的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1335,
      "start": 2873.266,
      "end": 2874.2,
      "text": "Narrative（叙事）是什么",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1336,
      "start": 2874.2,
      "end": 2876.366,
      "text": "当我们对AI有信心的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1337,
      "start": 2876.366,
      "end": 2877.7,
      "text": "那你花钱就是对的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1338,
      "start": 2877.7,
      "end": 2879.666,
      "text": "当我们突然再进入到一个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1339,
      "start": 2879.666,
      "end": 2880.2,
      "text": "Correction（回调）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1340,
      "start": 2880.2,
      "end": 2882.833,
      "text": "或者是AI这个叙事不好的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1341,
      "start": 2882.833,
      "end": 2884.266,
      "text": "那你花钱就是错的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1342,
      "start": 2884.266,
      "end": 2885.5,
      "text": "至于表内表外",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1343,
      "start": 2885.5,
      "end": 2887.833,
      "text": "我觉得这是一个会计处理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1344,
      "start": 2887.833,
      "end": 2890.866,
      "text": "我不觉得这是有意地去隐藏",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1345,
      "start": 2891.033,
      "end": 2893.233,
      "text": "因为真的大家在做这个计算的时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1346,
      "start": 2893.233,
      "end": 2897.066,
      "text": "你都会把这些financial list（财务清单）放在整个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1347,
      "start": 2897.066,
      "end": 2898.2,
      "text": "因为归根到底",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1348,
      "start": 2898.2,
      "end": 2900.266,
      "text": "大家看的是你到底花了多少钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1349,
      "start": 2900.266,
      "end": 2901.933,
      "text": "这个东西都是disclose（披露）出来的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1350,
      "start": 2901.933,
      "end": 2902.866,
      "text": "大家都能看到",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1351,
      "start": 2902.866,
      "end": 2904.133,
      "text": "从另外一个角度来讲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1352,
      "start": 2904.133,
      "end": 2905.766,
      "text": "你只要是在做这个research（研究）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1353,
      "start": 2905.766,
      "end": 2908.1,
      "text": "我觉得不存在一个故意隐瞒",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1354,
      "start": 2908.1,
      "end": 2909.0,
      "text": "我觉得这就是一个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1355,
      "start": 2909.0,
      "end": 2910.2,
      "text": "Accounting（会计）的处理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1356,
      "start": 2910.2,
      "end": 2911.9,
      "text": "历史上大家也都是这么处理的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1357,
      "start": 2912.733,
      "end": 2913.766,
      "text": "最新一个季度",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1358,
      "start": 2913.766,
      "end": 2917.5,
      "text": "微软云业务Azure的营收增速是43%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1359,
      "start": 2917.5,
      "end": 2919.333,
      "text": "这是这几年最快的一次",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1360,
      "start": 2919.333,
      "end": 2921.633,
      "text": "而已经签下合同 还没确认的收入",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1361,
      "start": 2921.633,
      "end": 2923.866,
      "text": "达到了6780亿美元",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1362,
      "start": 2923.866,
      "end": 2926.266,
      "text": "比一年前增长了84%",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1363,
      "start": 2926.266,
      "end": 2927.533,
      "text": "但真正值得注意的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1364,
      "start": 2927.533,
      "end": 2929.133,
      "text": "不是这个增速本身",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1365,
      "start": 2929.133,
      "end": 2931.7,
      "text": "而是这笔钱是谁在花",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1366,
      "start": 2931.7,
      "end": 2934.8,
      "text": "只要这方面的增速是非常稳定的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1367,
      "start": 2934.8,
      "end": 2937.833,
      "text": "总体说就是它的token volume是在上涨的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1368,
      "start": 2937.833,
      "end": 2941.6,
      "text": "那么 因为所有融资结构都要回到现金流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1369,
      "start": 2941.6,
      "end": 2943.866,
      "text": "这个就是一个可以继续下去的事情",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1370,
      "start": 2943.866,
      "end": 2945.833,
      "text": "所以我觉得去track（跟踪）微软",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1371,
      "start": 2945.833,
      "end": 2946.733,
      "text": "这样的云服务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1372,
      "start": 2946.733,
      "end": 2949.433,
      "text": "是一个更理智的指标",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1373,
      "start": 2949.433,
      "end": 2951.633,
      "text": "只要这块是在增长的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1374,
      "start": 2951.633,
      "end": 2953.133,
      "text": "那么我们就可以说",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1375,
      "start": 2953.133,
      "end": 2955.666,
      "text": "它其实是一个可以转得下来的资本循环",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1376,
      "start": 2955.666,
      "end": 2957.466,
      "text": "我们想要看到它的ROI（投资回报）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1377,
      "start": 2957.466,
      "end": 2961.0,
      "text": "看到它有足够量的现金等等",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1378,
      "start": 2961.0,
      "end": 2964.566,
      "text": "其实这些都还没有说让我感到担忧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1379,
      "start": 2964.566,
      "end": 2967.866,
      "text": "所以会计口径怎么改 市场其实不太在意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1380,
      "start": 2967.866,
      "end": 2971.033,
      "text": "它在意的是那笔钱有没有换回真实的收入",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1381,
      "start": 2971.033,
      "end": 2973.966,
      "text": "这也解释了 为什么这些巨额表外债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1382,
      "start": 2973.966,
      "end": 2977.0,
      "text": "在专业投资人的眼中并没有那么惊悚",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1383,
      "start": 2977.0,
      "end": 2979.133,
      "text": "不过最重要的 是在他们眼中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1384,
      "start": 2979.133,
      "end": 2982.5,
      "text": "现在“数据中心债”的规模其实还很小",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1385,
      "start": 2982.5,
      "end": 2984.766,
      "text": "目前这个行业虽然大家花了很多钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1386,
      "start": 2984.766,
      "end": 2985.866,
      "text": "但它整个的盘子",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1387,
      "start": 2985.866,
      "end": 2988.066,
      "text": "跟2007年、2008年那时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1388,
      "start": 2988.266,
      "end": 2989.3,
      "text": "整个housing market（房地产市场）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1389,
      "start": 2989.3,
      "end": 2990.433,
      "text": "占GDP的占比",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1390,
      "start": 2990.433,
      "end": 2993.1,
      "text": "相比较来说还是比较小的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1391,
      "start": 2993.1,
      "end": 2995.866,
      "text": "所以我觉得很难会造成一个系统性的风险",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1392,
      "start": 2995.866,
      "end": 2998.2,
      "text": "第二 一个很重要的不同在于",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1393,
      "start": 2998.2,
      "end": 2999.633,
      "text": "在那个时候",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1394,
      "start": 2999.633,
      "end": 3002.6,
      "text": "真正接盘或说承担了很多这种债务或风险的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1395,
      "start": 3002.6,
      "end": 3004.5,
      "text": "是美国的银行系统",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1396,
      "start": 3004.866,
      "end": 3006.7,
      "text": "所以他把一个housing（房地产）危机",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1397,
      "start": 3006.7,
      "end": 3009.166,
      "text": "变成了一个美国银行系统性的危机",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1398,
      "start": 3009.166,
      "end": 3011.1,
      "text": "但过去这样 基本上20年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1399,
      "start": 3011.1,
      "end": 3013.8,
      "text": "现在美国的银行、整个银行业",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1400,
      "start": 3013.8,
      "end": 3016.433,
      "text": "相对来说监管是比较紧",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1401,
      "start": 3016.433,
      "end": 3018.866,
      "text": "第二 它的杠杆一般来说都很低",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1402,
      "start": 3019.166,
      "end": 3021.766,
      "text": "所以很难现在出现一个情况",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1403,
      "start": 3021.766,
      "end": 3024.8,
      "text": "把美国的银行业、金融业全部拖下水",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1404,
      "start": 3024.8,
      "end": 3027.366,
      "text": "总体而言 我觉得这个市场还是非常大的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1405,
      "start": 3027.366,
      "end": 3029.8,
      "text": "从容量上看 这些数据中心的债务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1406,
      "start": 3029.8,
      "end": 3032.866,
      "text": "已经进入了所谓的万亿美金级的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1407,
      "start": 3032.866,
      "end": 3034.0,
      "text": "企业债的市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1408,
      "start": 3034.233,
      "end": 3036.866,
      "text": "数据中心发债的这些钱（项目级融资）",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1409,
      "start": 3036.866,
      "end": 3039.2,
      "text": "在企业债市场里面其实还是个零头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1410,
      "start": 3039.2,
      "end": 3040.833,
      "text": "一个万亿级的市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1411,
      "start": 3040.833,
      "end": 3042.533,
      "text": "一个还只是零头的品类",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1412,
      "start": 3042.533,
      "end": 3046.1,
      "text": "以及一批监管更紧、杠杆更低的银行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1413,
      "start": 3046.1,
      "end": 3048.3,
      "text": "这就是为什么 在从业者看来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1414,
      "start": 3048.3,
      "end": 3051.4,
      "text": "“AI版次贷”这个说法或许并不成立",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1415,
      "start": 3055.166,
      "end": 3056.4,
      "text": "好了 这一整期节目",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1416,
      "start": 3056.4,
      "end": 3059.266,
      "text": "我们拆解了各种把债“挪”出报表的做法",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1417,
      "start": 3059.266,
      "end": 3061.5,
      "text": "不得不说 当华尔街碰到硅谷",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1418,
      "start": 3061.5,
      "end": 3063.966,
      "text": "这群人简直是太会玩了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1419,
      "start": 3063.966,
      "end": 3065.866,
      "text": "但是这背后 其实反应出的是",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1420,
      "start": 3065.866,
      "end": 3068.566,
      "text": "AI正在改变科技公司的资本结构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1421,
      "start": 3068.566,
      "end": 3072.766,
      "text": "也在改变整个金融体系给科技定价的方式",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1422,
      "start": 3072.766,
      "end": 3074.3,
      "text": "这一整套巧妙的结构",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1423,
      "start": 3074.3,
      "end": 3076.733,
      "text": "每一层结构都对应着一个价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1424,
      "start": 3076.733,
      "end": 3079.133,
      "text": "企业债、项目融资、私募信贷",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1425,
      "start": 3079.133,
      "end": 3081.1,
      "text": "都各自对应着标价",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1426,
      "start": 3081.1,
      "end": 3083.266,
      "text": "然而资产负债表可以变干净",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1427,
      "start": 3083.266,
      "end": 3085.666,
      "text": "但风险却不会凭空消失",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1428,
      "start": 3085.666,
      "end": 3088.233,
      "text": "它只是被切开、打包、担保",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1429,
      "start": 3088.233,
      "end": 3091.966,
      "text": "然后沿着这条金融链条分给了不同的人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1430,
      "start": 3091.966,
      "end": 3092.666,
      "text": "过去二十年",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1431,
      "start": 3092.666,
      "end": 3094.7,
      "text": "市场习惯把硅谷科技公司们",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1432,
      "start": 3094.7,
      "end": 3096.9,
      "text": "理解成一种轻资产生意",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1433,
      "start": 3096.9,
      "end": 3099.266,
      "text": "写代码、卖软件、产生现金流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1434,
      "start": 3099.266,
      "end": 3101.466,
      "text": "然后用现金回购股票",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1435,
      "start": 3101.466,
      "end": 3104.266,
      "text": "但AI正在把这套逻辑倒过来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1436,
      "start": 3104.266,
      "end": 3105.966,
      "text": "如今最前沿的科技竞争",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1437,
      "start": 3105.966,
      "end": 3107.9,
      "text": "越来越像房地产行业",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1438,
      "start": 3107.9,
      "end": 3110.866,
      "text": "抢芯片、拿电、买地、盖数据中心",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1439,
      "start": 3110.866,
      "end": 3112.833,
      "text": "再用未来十年、二十年的现金流",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1440,
      "start": 3112.833,
      "end": 3114.866,
      "text": "为今天的建设买单",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1441,
      "start": 3114.866,
      "end": 3115.933,
      "text": "而今天的建设",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1442,
      "start": 3115.933,
      "end": 3117.966,
      "text": "也都基于一个未来的假设",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1443,
      "start": 3117.966,
      "end": 3119.733,
      "text": "就是AI的token需求",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1444,
      "start": 3119.733,
      "end": 3122.466,
      "text": "将不会放缓地极速增长",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1445,
      "start": 3122.466,
      "end": 3123.433,
      "text": "硅谷和华尔街",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1446,
      "start": 3123.433,
      "end": 3126.066,
      "text": "都在押注那个AGI的未来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1447,
      "start": 3126.066,
      "end": 3129.233,
      "text": "然而在未来到来之前 风险真的可控吗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1448,
      "start": 3129.233,
      "end": 3130.333,
      "text": "嘉宾们口中的",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1449,
      "start": 3130.333,
      "end": 3132.733,
      "text": "“市场依然还小”的数据中心债",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1450,
      "start": 3132.733,
      "end": 3134.4,
      "text": "真的没有风险吗",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1451,
      "start": 3134.4,
      "end": 3136.933,
      "text": "这个市场中泡沫存在在哪里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1452,
      "start": 3136.933,
      "end": 3139.333,
      "text": "又会在什么时候被戳破",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1453,
      "start": 3139.333,
      "end": 3142.366,
      "text": "这些问题在资本市场为AI疯狂之际",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1454,
      "start": 3142.366,
      "end": 3143.7,
      "text": "应该被提出来",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1455,
      "start": 3143.7,
      "end": 3145.7,
      "text": "我们也会为大家持续关注",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1456,
      "start": 3145.866,
      "end": 3148.466,
      "text": "好了 以上就是本期视频的全部内容了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1457,
      "start": 3148.466,
      "end": 3150.0,
      "text": "你们的点赞、留言还有转发",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1458,
      "start": 3150.0,
      "end": 3151.266,
      "text": "是支持我们《硅谷101》",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1459,
      "start": 3151.266,
      "end": 3154.0,
      "text": "做好深度科技和商业内容的最佳动力",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1460,
      "start": 3154.0,
      "end": 3154.966,
      "text": "我是陈茜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 1461,
      "start": 3154.966,
      "end": 3157.7,
      "text": "那我们就下期视频再见了 拜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    }
  ]
}