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如果你手裡還在用M1或者M2的MacBook,你大概率已經兩三年沒認真關注過蘋果的電腦更新了。性能擠壓高,外觀五年沒變,剪視頻辦公都夠用,換機器的念頭動了一次又一次,最後還是算了。但這一次,蘋果可能真的要把所有丁子戶的換機理由一次給足。

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你去二手平台看看就知道

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M1、M2的MacBook保值率高得夸张

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用了三四年还能卖当初一半多的价格

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很多人一算卖了也回不了多少血

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新机器提升又不大

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干脆接着用

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凑合凑合又是一年

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今天这期内容

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我会把这次苹果新MacBook的所有核心改动

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背后的商业考量

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还有最容易被忽略的市场信号一次讲透

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你会看懂苹果为什么突然这么激进

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普通用户要不要等

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以及这波更新对整个PC行业意味着什么

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大家好

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我是财经翻译官

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这里不做投资建议

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只和大家一起把市场背后的逻辑看清楚

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还记得M1芯片刚发布的时候

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整个PC行业都被镇住了

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没人想到ARM结构的电脑能做到那种性能

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续航直接翻翻

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风扇几乎不转

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剪4K视频比当时的Intel旗舰本还快

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那时候很多人直接把用了多年的Intel本换掉

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成了M系列的第一批用户

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可从那之后

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苹果的迭代就慢了下来

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M2相比M1

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日常使用的感知微乎其微

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M3又挤了一次牙膏

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外观模具还是那一套

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刘海还是那个刘海

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接口也没什么变化

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很多人的M1用就是四五年

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电池健康度还很高

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干活完全不卡

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根本找不到花一两万换新机的理由

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我身边不少做内容的朋友

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手里的M1 Pro到现在还在当主力机

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问他们为什么不换

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答案都差不多

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新机器提升太小

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换了也感觉不到差别

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钱花的不值

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苹果自己肯定也看清了这个局面

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MAC销量这两年一直不温不火

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老用户不换

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新用户增长见顶

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再这么下去

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高端市场就要被对手抢走了

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所以这次即将到来的MacBook Ultra

54
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从一开始就不是常规更新

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它背负的是苹果PC业务这几年最大的期待

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就是要制造一场苹果PC史上最大的换机潮

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把那些守了好几年的钉子户一次性撬动

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最先被彻底换掉的是用了好几代的屏幕

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之前高端MacBook用的Mineo的面板

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参数看着好看

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实际用起来总有绕不开的问题

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晚上关灯看暗场内容

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亮字幕旁边总有一圈光韵

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黑场怎么都不够纯

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很多人吐槽了很久

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苹果靠增加分区背光堆了几袋

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也没法从物理层面彻底解决

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对做设计调色的创作者来说

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这个问题更明显

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Mineo的暗部细节总会有点发灰

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纯黑下不去

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掉出来的片子放到其他屏幕上看

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颜色总差一点意思

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很多专业用户甚至还在接外接显示器用

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就是因为笔记本自带的屏幕不够准

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这次苹果直接放弃了Mineal的路线

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转用双层串联OLED

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也就是大家说的Tandem OLED

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很多人之前担心OLED烧屏

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这个技术直接把两层面板叠在一起

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亮度冲到1600尼特的同时

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寿命比普通OLED长很多

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烧屏的顾虑基本被解决了

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更重要的是

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OLED能做到真正的纯黑

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对比度是Miniode比不了的

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色准也会再上一个台阶

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不管是看HDR内容还是做专业调色

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显示效果都会有肉眼可见的提升

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而且OLED面板比Miniode薄太多

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功耗还低

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机身重量能降下来

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续航也能再往上走一节

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很多人只看到屏幕参数升级了

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却没意识到屏幕变薄省出的空间

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是后面整个机身重新设计的基础

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没有这层薄面板

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后面说的极致轻薄

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大散热模组都很难塞进去

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屏幕的改动还只是开始

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用了整整五年的刘海屏

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这次也要彻底退场了

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从M1 Pro那代开始

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刘海的争议就没停过

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有人觉得不影响

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有人觉得全屏看东西总像缺了一块

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苹果硬扛了五年吐槽

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这次不仅把刘海去掉

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还把iPhone上的灵动导搬到了Mac上

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边框被压到了极窄的程度

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正面看过去几乎全是屏幕

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视觉冲击力和老款完全不是一个级别

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很多人说灵动岛在手机上就是个好看的通知栏

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没什么实际用

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但放在Mac上

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逻辑其实完全不一样

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之前Mac的通知都堆在右上角

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工作开一堆窗口的时候

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很容易漏掉重要提醒

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尤其是后台导出

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上传这种掌任务

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切出去就看不到进度了

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灵动岛相当于把实时任务单独拎了出来

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不管你在哪个界面

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顶部都能看到进度

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不会被其他消息淹没

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你剪视频的时候

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后台导出进度不用切回桌面看

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灵动岛上就能直接显示

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传大文件

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开视频会议

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接同步电话

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所有实时状态都在那里

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完全不打断你手头的工作

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这种体验上的顺滑

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不是参数能写出来的

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用久了就回不去

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你要知道

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苹果愿意放弃用了五年的成熟模具

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放弃自己坚持了这么久的设计

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本身就是个很强的信号

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这次它就是要让你拿到新机器的第一眼

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就明确感觉到

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这是新东西

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和手里的老款完全不一样

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从外观上先给你换机的冲动

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其实苹果很多年前就申请过Mac触屏的相关专利

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只是一直没拿出来用

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之前不是做不到

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是在等一个合适的节点

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等交互逻辑

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生态适配

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使用场景都成熟了

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才会放出来

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绝不是临时跟风做的决定

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更让人意外的是交互上的改动

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MAC历史上第一次加上了触摸屏

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当年乔布斯说过

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MAC不需要触摸屏

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哥博伸着点屏幕太累

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这么多年不管外界怎么呼吁

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苹果都纹丝不动

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甚至还暗讽过Windows触屏本的体验差

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这次他亲手打破了自己定了十几年的规矩

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很多人第一反应是

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我有鼠标和触控板

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要触屏干嘛

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但你往回想想

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当年iPad刚加鼠标支持的时候

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也有很多人说没用

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现在照样有大把人用iPad配件盘办公

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交互永远是跟着需求走的

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不是一成不变的

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之前很多Windows触屏本体验不好

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本质上是系统和软件都没针对触屏做优化

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点按钮小

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滑动不跟手

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用起来别扭

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但苹果不一样

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它是软硬一体的

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系统自带软件

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第三方APP都会跟着适配

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不会出现那种点不准

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滑不动的情况

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现在AI多模态交互越来越成熟

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以后你让AI帮你修图

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直接用手指在屏幕上圈出要改的地方

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比用鼠标拖半天选区快太多

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看文档的时候直接点着翻页标注

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和在纸上写字一样自然

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做设计的时候甚至能直接在屏幕上画草稿

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手感不比入门数位板差

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更别说现在iPadOS和MacOS的融合越来越深

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很多App两边都能跑

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用户在iPad上习惯了点按屏幕

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回到Mac却不能碰

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这种割裂感本来就不合理

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我更愿意把这个改动看成一个信号

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苹果的生态融合已经走到下一个阶段

200
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接下来Mac和iPad的边界会越来越模糊

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外观和交互改了

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机身内部也做了彻底重构

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配合极薄的OLED屏幕

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机身上半部分的厚度直接砍了一大截

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盒盖之后的整体厚度和重量都会有明显下降

206
00:07:07,540 --> 00:07:10,240
之前16寸机型拿久了压手的问题

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这次会改善很多

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但机身做薄了

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最让人担心的就是性能释放

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之前很多轻薄本为了做薄砍散热

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一跑高负载就降频

212
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参数看着好看

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实际干活的时候掉链子

214
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就像之前的无风扇MacBook Air

215
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平时用着很安静

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一导出长视频,频率掉得厉害

217
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速度越来越慢

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很多人最后还是加钱买了Pro版

219
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苹果这次反其道而行之

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直接在机身里塞了大面积的均热板

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也就是VC散热

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代替了之前用了很多代的传统热管

223
00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,300
VC散热之前基本都是游戏本

224
00:07:44,300 --> 00:07:46,300
或者高性能本才会用的方案

225
00:07:46,300 --> 00:07:48,500
散热效率比热管高很多

226
00:07:48,500 --> 00:07:51,640
能把芯片的热量快速导到整个机身散开

227
00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:53,200
不会积在一个地方

228
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,560
苹果做这个改动的目的很明确

229
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,000
就是要压住M5系列芯片的发热

230
00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:59,920
让性能能持续跑满

231
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:16,800
频率调得厉害

232
00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:18,380
明明参数写得很高

233
00:08:18,380 --> 00:08:20,380
实际体验还不如老款稳

234
00:08:20,380 --> 00:08:22,760
这次苹果愿意在散热上堆料

235
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,000
其实比单纯喊性能提升多少要实在的多

236
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,280
这意味着新机器的性能不是跑分给人看的

237
00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,180
是真的能在日常干活里持续释放的

238
00:08:32,180 --> 00:08:33,100
说到性能

239
00:08:33,100 --> 00:08:36,720
这次M5 Pro的升级可能是最能打动老用户的一点

240
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,100
之前苹果的芯片梯队分得很清楚

241
00:08:39,100 --> 00:08:40,800
基础款给普通用户

242
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:42,100
Pro给创作者

243
00:08:42,100 --> 00:08:44,240
Max给顶级专业用户

244
00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:45,640
价格也差得很远

245
00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:47,660
你要拿到最强的图形性能

246
00:08:47,660 --> 00:08:49,120
就得加钱上MAX

247
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,460
稍微选点配置就奔着四五万去了

248
00:08:51,460 --> 00:08:53,700
普通个人创作者根本舍不得

249
00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:56,820
但这次M5 Pro直接把这个梯队给打乱了

250
00:08:56,820 --> 00:08:59,460
18核CPU加20核GPU的配置

251
00:08:59,460 --> 00:09:01,940
再加上升级后的统一内存带宽

252
00:09:01,940 --> 00:09:03,900
图形渲染速度居然追平

253
00:09:03,900 --> 00:09:05,880
甚至超过了老款32核

254
00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,000
38核的MAX满血芯片

255
00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:08,760
什么概念

256
00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,760
就是你以前花5万块才能买到的顶级图形性能

257
00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,660
现在可能花一半不到的钱买个Pro型号就拿到了

258
00:09:16,660 --> 00:09:20,140
这个冲击力对创作者群体来说真的太大了

259
00:09:20,140 --> 00:09:24,000
做3D建模,视频剪辑,特效包装的人都懂

260
00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,020
图形性能和内存带宽就是吃饭的家伙

261
00:09:27,020 --> 00:09:31,560
之前剪8K素材,跑大场景渲染,只有Max能hold住

262
00:09:31,560 --> 00:09:35,100
普通Pro根本带不动,很多人预算不够只能硬等

263
00:09:35,100 --> 00:09:36,660
或者降低工作效率

264
00:09:36,660 --> 00:09:40,360
这次不仅GPU性能上去了,内存带宽也跟着涨

265
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:41,760
处理大体积素材

266
00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:43,440
跑本地大模型的能力

267
00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:44,960
比老款MAX还要强

268
00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,620
那些之前预算不够买MAX的学生党

269
00:09:47,620 --> 00:09:48,780
自由职业者

270
00:09:48,780 --> 00:09:49,760
小工作室

271
00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,100
这次用终端的价格就能拿到旗舰级的性能

272
00:09:53,100 --> 00:09:55,220
换机的动力一下子就上来了

273
00:09:55,220 --> 00:09:56,960
我观察到的细节是

274
00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,000
苹果这次没有像以前一样

275
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,120
把顶级性能死死攥在顶配型号里卖高价

276
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,720
而是主动把性能下放

277
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,160
这不是良心发现

278
00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:06,380
是他算明白了

279
00:10:06,380 --> 00:10:08,980
与其让少数人花大价钱买顶配

280
00:10:08,980 --> 00:10:11,840
不如让更多终端用户掏钱换机

281
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,600
后者的规模要大得多

282
00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:14,340
除了性能

283
00:10:14,340 --> 00:10:16,980
这次Mac还第一次内置了5G蜂窝网络

284
00:10:16,980 --> 00:10:19,300
很多人看到这个功能的第一反应是

285
00:10:19,300 --> 00:10:20,720
我手机能开热点

286
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:21,740
用得到这个吗

287
00:10:21,740 --> 00:10:23,060
我之前也这么想

288
00:10:23,060 --> 00:10:24,540
直到有次在高铁上

289
00:10:24,540 --> 00:10:26,580
要传几个G的素材给客户

290
00:10:26,580 --> 00:10:28,340
手机热点一会断一次

291
00:10:28,340 --> 00:10:30,240
传了半个多小时没传完

292
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:31,500
急得满头汗

293
00:10:31,500 --> 00:10:33,640
才知道这两个体验完全不一样

294
00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,320
内置5G用的是eSIM

295
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,580
不用插实体卡

296
00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:39,220
直接在系统里就能开通流量套餐

297
00:10:39,220 --> 00:10:41,000
出差去外地甚至国外

298
00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:42,200
不用办当地卡

299
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:43,700
直接开漫游就能用

300
00:10:43,700 --> 00:10:46,260
之前很多人出门还要带个随身WiFi

301
00:10:46,260 --> 00:10:47,840
又要充电又要占地方

302
00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:49,160
现在电脑自带

303
00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,600
少带一个设备也少了很多麻烦

304
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,560
内置5G的话你开机就有网

305
00:10:53,560 --> 00:10:55,760
不用掏手机开热点等连接

306
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,320
也不用担心手机来个电话热点就断了

307
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,500
不管你在出租车上高铁上

308
00:11:00,500 --> 00:11:01,920
没有WiFi的会议室里

309
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:03,720
甚至在户外拍素材

310
00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:05,820
打开电脑就能直接传文件

311
00:11:05,820 --> 00:11:07,820
开云协作跑云端任务

312
00:11:07,820 --> 00:11:09,640
和在家里连WiFi没区别

313
00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,040
尤其是现在越来越多的工作流和云端绑定

314
00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:14,840
4K素材同步云盘

315
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,460
团队实时协作跑云端大模型

316
00:11:17,460 --> 00:11:20,100
这些都对网络稳定性要求很高

317
00:11:20,100 --> 00:11:22,160
苹果家这个功能不是凑数

318
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,980
是把Mac从一个依赖WiFi的办公设备

319
00:11:24,980 --> 00:11:27,440
变成了真正全天候的移动工作站

320
00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,520
很多人现在觉得这个功能没用

321
00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,640
等你真的遇到一次急需用网

322
00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:33,080
却找不到WiFi的情况

323
00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:34,540
就会知道它的价值

324
00:11:34,540 --> 00:11:36,420
而且结合后面的AI功能

325
00:11:36,420 --> 00:11:37,960
本地AI虽然能跑

326
00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,460
但很多任务还是需要云端配合

327
00:11:40,460 --> 00:11:41,800
始终在线的网络

328
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:43,720
本来就是完整体验的一部分

329
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,360
当然真正的杀招还不是这些硬件

330
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,360
而是苹果准备推出的新租赁政策

331
00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:50,920
36个月零利息

332
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,420
零手续费的硬件升级计划

333
00:11:53,420 --> 00:11:55,420
拿3000美元的机型来说

334
00:11:55,420 --> 00:11:57,480
每个月只要大概58美元

335
00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,480
到期之后你可以补尾款

336
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:00,600
把机器买断

337
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,940
也可以直接无缝换下一代新机器

338
00:12:02,940 --> 00:12:06,060
这个模式其实苹果在iPhone上已经跑通了

339
00:12:06,060 --> 00:12:08,200
就是之前的年年换新计划

340
00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,880
只是这次把周期拉长到了三年

341
00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:11,720
门槛更低

342
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,340
之前买Mac最大的门槛就是价格

343
00:12:14,340 --> 00:12:16,820
一台好点的Pro动辄一万多两万

344
00:12:16,820 --> 00:12:18,440
很多人不是不想买

345
00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:20,840
是一下掏这么多钱总觉得舍不得

346
00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,460
要等优惠等降价

347
00:12:22,460 --> 00:12:23,520
等教育优惠

348
00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,180
犹豫很久都下不了单

349
00:12:25,180 --> 00:12:26,520
对个人用户来说

350
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,980
这个政策直接把一次性的大额支出

351
00:12:28,980 --> 00:12:31,500
变成了每个月400多块的小额账单

352
00:12:31,500 --> 00:12:35,480
你想想,每个月400多块,也就少出去吃两顿饭

353
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,200
就能一直用最新的Mac

354
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,440
不用操心旧机器贬值,不用自己卖二手

355
00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,160
也不用等什么促销活动

356
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,580
决策门槛直接降到了几乎没有

357
00:12:44,580 --> 00:12:46,740
对企业用户来说吸引力更大

358
00:12:46,740 --> 00:12:50,260
之前公司采购电脑是一次性固定资产支出

359
00:12:50,260 --> 00:12:52,840
折旧,盘点,报废都很麻烦

360
00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,680
用租赁计划的话,每个月走运营成本

361
00:12:55,680 --> 00:12:59,200
财务上更好处理,还能定期给员工换新机

362
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,060
不用自己处理旧设备

363
00:13:01,060 --> 00:13:04,120
很多中大型公司都会愿意选这种方式

364
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:05,200
对苹果来说

365
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:06,420
这一招更狠

366
00:13:06,420 --> 00:13:09,340
它把一锤子买卖变成了持续的订阅收入

367
00:13:09,340 --> 00:13:11,720
用户每三年就会自然换一次新机

368
00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:13,880
直接把换机周期给锁死了

369
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,720
还把二手市场的主动权抓在了自己手里

370
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,680
旧机器回收翻新再卖

371
00:13:18,680 --> 00:13:19,660
又能赚一笔

372
00:13:19,660 --> 00:13:21,480
我真正想提醒大家的是

373
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,160
别只看到每个月钱少就觉得划算

374
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,140
如果你一台电脑能用五六年

375
00:13:26,140 --> 00:13:27,580
那买断肯定更合适

376
00:13:27,580 --> 00:13:30,060
但如果你本来就两三年换一次机器

377
00:13:30,060 --> 00:13:32,480
这个计划确实能减轻不少压力

378
00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:33,640
但不管怎么说

379
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:34,860
这个政策一出来

380
00:13:34,860 --> 00:13:37,580
很多本来犹豫的人可能直接就下单了

381
00:13:37,580 --> 00:13:38,960
它对销量的撬动

382
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:40,980
比任何硬件升级都直接

383
00:13:40,980 --> 00:13:41,680
说到这里

384
00:13:41,680 --> 00:13:42,480
你可能会问

385
00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:44,600
苹果为什么突然这么激进

386
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,060
把攒了这么多年的东西一次放出来

387
00:13:47,060 --> 00:13:49,200
其实所有这些硬件堆料

388
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:50,620
大内存带宽

389
00:13:50,620 --> 00:13:51,940
NPU调优

390
00:13:51,940 --> 00:13:52,700
散热

391
00:13:52,700 --> 00:13:53,480
5G

392
00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:54,340
屏幕

393
00:13:54,340 --> 00:13:55,860
核心目标只有一个

394
00:13:55,860 --> 00:13:58,480
就是让完全体的Apple Intelligence

395
00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,160
也就是苹果智能

396
00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:01,880
能在本地流畅运行

397
00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,900
现在很多人聊AIPC都觉得是个噱头

398
00:14:04,900 --> 00:14:06,800
不就是装个AI助手吗

399
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,580
但苹果的思路不一样

400
00:14:08,580 --> 00:14:11,200
它要的是深度欠在系统里的本地大模型

401
00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,160
不是靠网页端的云端AI

402
00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:14,880
云端AI虽然模型大

403
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:15,800
但有延迟

404
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:17,180
数据要传上去

405
00:14:17,180 --> 00:14:18,200
隐私有风险

406
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:19,340
没网就用不了

407
00:14:19,340 --> 00:14:20,360
本地跑的话

408
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,400
你的所有数据都不用出设备

409
00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:23,720
响应是及时的

410
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,640
你拍了几十机的RAW素材

411
00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,380
AI能直接在本地帮你筛掉废片

412
00:14:28,380 --> 00:14:29,560
自动配字幕

413
00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:30,820
加基础转场

414
00:14:30,820 --> 00:14:32,200
不用等上传云端

415
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,440
你写方案的时候

416
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,120
IA能直接调用你电脑里的过往文档找参考

417
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,980
不用你一个个翻文件夹开跨国会议的时候

418
00:14:39,980 --> 00:14:42,380
本地实时翻译几乎没有延迟

419
00:14:42,380 --> 00:14:45,580
这些都是云端AI做不到的顺畅体验

420
00:14:45,580 --> 00:14:48,100
但本地跑大模型对硬件要求极高

421
00:14:48,100 --> 00:14:49,760
需要极大的内存带宽

422
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,240
很强的NPU算力

423
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,340
足够的散热保证持续输出

424
00:14:53,340 --> 00:14:55,340
你回头看这次Mac的所有升级

425
00:14:55,340 --> 00:14:57,420
几乎都是围着这个需求转的

426
00:14:57,420 --> 00:14:59,420
大内存是给加载模型用的

427
00:14:59,420 --> 00:15:01,800
M5的NPU是给AI计算用的

428
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,800
VC散热是保证AI任务跑起来不降级

429
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,480
5G是保证云端协同随时在线

430
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:08,480
甚至触摸屏

431
00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,400
也是为了让你和AI交互的时候更自然

432
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:12,100
说白了

433
00:15:12,100 --> 00:15:13,880
苹果不是在做一台新电脑

434
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,180
它是在做一个本地的AI工作站

435
00:15:16,180 --> 00:15:17,700
硬件只是载体

436
00:15:17,700 --> 00:15:20,500
AI体验才是接下来的核心竞争力

437
00:15:20,500 --> 00:15:23,420
现在Windows阵营的AIPC喊了快一年

438
00:15:23,420 --> 00:15:25,840
很多机器就是加了个AI快捷键

439
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,280
实际功能少得可怜

440
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:28,740
还大多要靠云端

441
00:15:28,740 --> 00:15:31,320
苹果这次直接把硬件门槛拉满

442
00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:32,480
等软件一跟上

443
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,740
体验差距一下子就拉开了

444
00:15:34,740 --> 00:15:35,300
当然

445
00:15:35,300 --> 00:15:38,200
这么激进的升级肯定不会一帆风顺

446
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:39,700
现在最大的问题就是

447
00:15:39,700 --> 00:15:42,960
量产大尺寸Tandem OLED面板的生产难度

448
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,540
比普通OLED高很多

449
00:15:44,540 --> 00:15:47,560
现在供应链初期良率大概只有六成左右

450
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,520
要爬到稳定的八成以上需要好几个月

451
00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,660
再加上高规格统一内存的产能也跟不上

452
00:15:53,660 --> 00:15:56,500
新机器的大规模供货很可能要推迟

453
00:15:56,500 --> 00:15:57,380
也就是说

454
00:15:57,380 --> 00:15:59,160
就算新机器很快发布

455
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:00,000
你真要拿到

456
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:08,400
也就是說,就算新機器很快發布,你真要拿到手,可能要等到今年年底,甚至2026年年初,首發階段大概率會缺貨,黃牛加價的情況可能也會出現。

457
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,640
很多人等着发布就抢首发

458
00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:14,160
可能要等好几个星期甚至一两个月才能拿到机器

459
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,480
很多人会说这是苹果搞饥饿营销

460
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:17,600
其实真不是

461
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,920
供应链的良率爬坡是客观规律

462
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:21,440
不是想快就能快的

463
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:22,640
新的生产工艺

464
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,440
新的面板结构都需要时间调试

465
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,520
初期合格的面板就那么多

466
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,680
不可能一下满足全球的需求

467
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,280
我给大家的观察建议是

468
00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,520
如果你不是急着用新机器干活

469
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,120
完全没必要抢首发

470
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:36,960
一方面初期产能不稳

471
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,100
新模具第一批难免会有一些没发现的小瑕疵

472
00:16:40,100 --> 00:16:42,400
另一方面等几个月产能上来了

473
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:43,560
供货稳定了

474
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,040
价格也不会有波动

475
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:46,680
入手体验会好很多

476
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:48,660
很多人担心这么多堆料

477
00:16:48,660 --> 00:16:50,700
新机器的价格会涨很多

478
00:16:50,700 --> 00:16:52,120
我的判断是不会

479
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,260
苹果这次的目标是走量

480
00:16:54,260 --> 00:16:55,660
是撬动换机潮

481
00:16:55,660 --> 00:16:56,960
如果定价太高

482
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:58,960
很多人还是会被价格劝退

483
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,920
尤其是有租赁计划拖底

484
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,440
中配型号的价格大概率会维持在现在的区间

485
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,500
甚至可能会有一点小惊喜

486
00:17:06,500 --> 00:17:09,220
毕竟走量才是这次的核心目标

487
00:17:09,220 --> 00:17:10,800
把视角再拉远一点

488
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,260
你就能看懂苹果这次的战略意图

489
00:17:13,260 --> 00:17:16,940
这两年高端PC市场的竞争其实越来越激烈

490
00:17:16,940 --> 00:17:19,720
高通的骁龙X系列出来之后

491
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,700
Windows on ARM的体验一下子追上来了

492
00:17:22,700 --> 00:17:25,840
续航够长,性能够强,风扇安静

493
00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:28,720
很多之前觉得Windows本续航差的用户

494
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,220
开始转投骁龙本

495
00:17:30,220 --> 00:17:32,600
Intel那边也在猛推AIPC

496
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,900
下一代酷睿Ultra的NPU算力还会有大提升

497
00:17:35,900 --> 00:17:38,700
各个PC厂商都在跟着做AI功能

498
00:17:38,700 --> 00:17:40,980
整个行业都在往AI方向转

499
00:17:40,980 --> 00:17:43,520
明年高通和Intel的新芯片上市

500
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,520
Windows阵营的体验还会再上一个台阶

501
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,100
如果苹果这次不把差距拉开

502
00:17:49,100 --> 00:17:51,780
高端市场的份额很可能会被蚕食

503
00:17:51,780 --> 00:17:53,860
所以这次MacBook Ultra的更新

504
00:17:53,860 --> 00:17:55,960
本质上是苹果的一次反击

505
00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:00,580
它要把自己在高性能、长续航、生态融合上的优势再一次拉大

506
00:18:00,580 --> 00:18:01,500
告诉市场

507
00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:03,680
在高端移动工作站这个领域

508
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,400
MAC还是没有对手

509
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,400
更重要的是,它要借着AI这波浪潮

510
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,280
站住AIPC的制高点

511
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,900
把整个行业的换机周期都带起来

512
00:18:12,900 --> 00:18:14,540
整体看下来你会发现

513
00:18:14,540 --> 00:18:16,720
这次苹果真的不是小打小闹

514
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:21,060
从屏幕、外观、交互、性能、散热、网络

515
00:18:21,060 --> 00:18:22,480
一直到销售模式

516
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,600
几乎把能改的地方全改了

517
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,020
攒了5年的劲,就等着这一次爆发

518
00:18:27,020 --> 00:18:28,460
它的目标非常明确

519
00:18:28,460 --> 00:18:32,900
就是让那些拿着M1、M2用了4、5年都不想换电脑的钉子户

520
00:18:32,900 --> 00:18:34,900
这次能心甘情愿地掏钱

521
00:18:34,900 --> 00:18:38,320
至于能不能成,其实现在已经能看到一些端倪了

522
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,780
这么多实打实的升级,加上这么低的换机门槛

523
00:18:41,780 --> 00:18:43,640
确实很难让人不动心

524
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,760
但最终体验怎么样,定价会不会有惊喜

525
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,640
还是要等正式发布才能见分晓

526
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,240
现在我们能做的,就是把信号看清楚

527
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,080
别被市场情绪带着走

528
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,460
如果你也希望在市场最热的时候

529
00:18:56,460 --> 00:18:59,480
多一点冷静判断,可以订阅这个频道

530
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,920
也欢迎你在评论区说说,你现在用的是哪一代Mac

531
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,180
这次的这些升级里哪一点最能打动你

532
00:19:06,180 --> 00:19:07,980
最后还是那句话

533
00:19:07,980 --> 00:19:10,520
市场里没有谁能替你做决定

534
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,600
今天这期内容只是基于目前公开的爆料信息和个人研究做出的分析

535
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,200
更多是给大家提供一个观察角度

536
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,080
不构成任何形式的消费建议或者投资建议

537
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:23,960
数码产品的更新迭代很快

538
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,900
最终的产品体验,实际售价和供货情况

539
00:19:26,900 --> 00:19:29,100
还是要等正式发布才能确定

540
00:19:29,100 --> 00:19:29,840
要不要换

541
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:30,780
什么时候换

542
00:19:30,780 --> 00:19:34,500
最终还是要结合你自己的使用需求和预算来判断

543
00:19:34,500 --> 00:19:36,440
任何看起来很美的升级

544
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,620
背后都可能藏着没有被看见的成本和风险