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美國跟歐洲在升息,在對抗通膨。日本卻繼續提供廉價資金。等同於在西方陣營裡面存在一個破口。資金寬鬆的破口。所以套利交易最怕的是,匯率的短期內迅速升值。這個會把套利交易那個利差整個都吃掉。

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就是日元将来要走升值才能够解决当下

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通膨的问题

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货币政策的问题

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以及日本在国际金融市场中的地位

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今天来谈一下日元汇率的未来动向

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前一阵子

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7月底到8月初

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美国日本联合干预日元的汇率

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然后现在我们要问的是

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日元汇率接下来要怎么看

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我是吴嘉隆

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各位小军台湾plus频道上的朋友们

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大家好

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日元汇率前阵子

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扁破日本政府设下的防线

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一比一美元换160日元

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这个160是一个

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重要关卡

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结果到158 159之后

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国际资金投石问路

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发现好像没有什么抵抗

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抵抗不足

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就是说日本央行的防守力道

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好像有点不够

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到了160

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到了161 162 163

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这样子就是

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眼睁睁要看着说

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要喊170了

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这个时候日本央行

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开始介入

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干预

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那个源头有一件事情是这样

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就是说日本为了降息

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他必须要把通膨压下来

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我们解释一下

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日本央行没有升息的一个重要原因

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是认为日本的通膨是输入性通膨

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输入性通膨的结果就是进口的东西

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能源 粮食 原材料等等

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很多进口的东西变贵

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变贵了之后当然就拉升成本

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造成通膨

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所以日本央行发现

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他日本现在的通膨

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是输入性通膨

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不是日本国内需求强大

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撑起来的通膨

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所以日本经济可能还不够强大

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还算是虚弱

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所以现在的通膨

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不完全算是正常情况下的通膨

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所以他不敢升息

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这个背景是这样

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他不升息的结果

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国际资金逐渐的胆大妄为了

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胆子变大了就开始打压日元

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然后在这种情况下出现了一件事情

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就是高市早苗首相为了压低通膨

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他降了消费税

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他把消费税降下来

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那么消费税原来算是日本政府的一个重要收入来源之一

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那么这个消费税降下来以后

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国际资金投机的资金开始下

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你这样子的话

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你日本政府少了税收

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所以你发行的国债要增加

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要增加国债发行

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增加国债发行的话

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那么债券价格会因为供给的增加而下跌

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也就是说日本的殖利率会走高

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那日本的殖利率走高的结果

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对日本经济不利

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所以应该可以预测日元会贬值

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所以国际资金在宣布消费税降低之后

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开始大规模的攻击日元

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于是日元就节节败退

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然后日本央行开始介入

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开始支撑

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然后从500多亿美金

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100多亿100多亿这样玩下来

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大约动用了700亿美金

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在市场上抛售美元

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来阻止美元对日元的升值

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也就是反过来讲支撑日元对美元的贬值

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就是说所谓日元贬值

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就是说很多人拿越来越多的日元去抢购一美元

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比如说本来155日元可以买到一美元

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后来160日元才能买到一美元

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后来变成163日元才能买一美元

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越来越多的日元去抢购美元

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这个叫做美元的升值或者日元的贬值

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所以要阻止日元贬值的办法

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就是在外汇市场上抛售美元

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你们要美元嘛 我抛售

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我提供

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我日本央行提供美元让你们来购买

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这样的话美元就不用

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升那么多 涨那么多

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这个意思是这样

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问题是

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日本央行就跟美国联系

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日本是外国势力持有最多的美国公债的国家

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如果日本开始抛售

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那么中国已经在抛售他手上持有的美国公债

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那么从当初最早的时候

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中国持有的美国公债大约1.2万兆美元

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现在已经降到不到8000

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应该是逼近7000亿美元

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不到8000亿美元

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已经大概已经卖掉了5000多亿的美国公债

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中共手上的美国公债在大量的减少

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然后如果日本也加入抛售的话

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可能会对美国国债市场构成卖压

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可能会让价格走低之后

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公债的殖利率30年起10年起

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这些公债殖利率会走高

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这样子的话等同一生息

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车贷房贷信用卡等等利率

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企业贷款这些利率都会根据10年起

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公债的殖利率来调整来走高

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这样的话对美国当然是有点有压力

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美国不乐见

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所以日本等于告诉美国

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你要帮我想办法

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不然的话我已经撑不住了

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我已经无法阻止日元的贬值

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那如果我要阻止它贬值的话

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我必须抛售手上的美国国债

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这样子

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那美国在压力之下

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不得不跳出来帮日本

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所以这一次是28年来

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每日之间第一次联手干预汇率

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所以以前1985年的时候

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所谓广场协议是美国在逼日本升职

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这一次其实是日本在逼美国

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你美国不跳下来救

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那我日本没办法了

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对不对撑不住了

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所以日本在跟美国打招呼

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要美国跳下来救

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那美国终于出手

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财政部长出手以后

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那总算把日元给拉回来

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从接近164拉到155 156

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就是美元对日元叠价

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等同于美元对日元有贬下来

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反过来讲就是日元对美元有升值上来

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接下来我们的问题是这样

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日元何去何从

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关键在于日本央行

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日本央行什么问题呢

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就是说你要不要启动货币政策正常化

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或者简称利率正常化

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什么意思呢

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因为基本上日本的整体CPI

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已经连续四年以上超过2%

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一度高达4%

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最近可能在3% 2.5% 3%之间游走

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这样的通膨率

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你绝对不能说它还在通货紧缩

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所以日本既然已经摆脱通货紧缩状态

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回到有通膨的年代

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那么利率就不能保持这么低

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就是說你不能用零利率來應對有一個有通膨的時代

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日本央行必須啟動利率正常化。什麼意思呢?就是利率要追上通膨率。

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而且還要超過。在有通膨的年代,利率不能是這個比通膨率低。

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那你有通貨緊縮的話

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你利率是零利率甚至於負利率OK

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但是現在日本已經擺脫通縮狀態

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進入通膨狀態

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這個時候利率就不能比通膨率低

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現在的通膨率大約3%上下

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那麼你利率再怎麼低

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你也要到2%以上

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現在才1%

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現在是從零利率升到1%

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1%還是低的 你看看

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所以日本的利率问题

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基本问题在于说它是套利交易的对象

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就是说大家在日元这里借利息

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借日元的话利率低

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现在日本的基准利率

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央行的基准利率是1%

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美国这边的基准利率是3.5%到3.75%

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换句话说美日之间的利差就2.5%

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或更多一点点

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那国际金融机构在日本借日元

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然后拿日元去买美元

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变成美元以后在美国操作投资运用

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那欧元也一样类似

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所以日本变成了一个资金宽松的来源

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一个窗口

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美国跟欧洲在升息在对抗通膨

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日本却继续提供廉价资金

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等同于在西方阵营里面存在一个破口

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资金宽松的破口

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美欧金融机构各种投资基金等等

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跑去日本借日元

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然后来换成美元欧元来投资运用

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这叫套利交易

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套利交易的话是资金从日本流出

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然后到美国去买股票买债券等等

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买房地产买各种资产

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那现在他们的风险是什么

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他们的风险是汇率

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汇率升值

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我先简单讲这个利差假设是2.5

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我们先跳开交易成本

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现在表面上的利差是2.5%

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那么美元会因此走死

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因为资金从日本流出来的话

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日元会贬值

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美元对日元会升值

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那这个升值一定会升过头

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升到大家觉得美元升太高了

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可能要贬值

220
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大概贬多少

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预期可能要贬2.5%

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这个时候你赚的利差会被汇兑损失

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就是汇率的那个升值

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美元升过头以后将来美元会开始贬值

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叫做你会有汇兑损失

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这个汇兑损失如果估计是2.5%

227
00:10:52,632 --> 00:10:55,192
那你的利差就被汇兑损失吃掉

228
00:10:55,192 --> 00:10:58,012
你就不值得再去做利差交易

229
00:10:58,012 --> 00:10:59,812
套利交易

230
00:10:59,812 --> 00:11:01,772
你借日元嘛

231
00:11:01,772 --> 00:11:04,672
然后去赚美国的利差的话就2.5%

232
00:11:04,672 --> 00:11:06,712
如果汇率波动超过2.5%

233
00:11:06,712 --> 00:11:08,712
那你不就虧錢了嗎

234
00:11:08,712 --> 00:11:11,272
所以套利交易的主要風險在於

235
00:11:11,272 --> 00:11:13,472
美元對日元的匯匯匯

236
00:11:13,472 --> 00:11:15,012
美元升過頭之後

237
00:11:15,012 --> 00:11:16,872
可能會有貶值的壓力

238
00:11:17,172 --> 00:11:20,312
就是漲過頭以後會修正拉回修正

239
00:11:20,512 --> 00:11:23,212
這個拉回如果是超過2.5%

240
00:11:23,612 --> 00:11:26,412
那我賺的那個利差不夠應付會對損失

241
00:11:26,712 --> 00:11:29,532
美元可能會因為升過頭而匯匯

242
00:11:29,832 --> 00:11:31,332
這個貶值的損失

243
00:11:31,432 --> 00:11:32,972
如果超過2.5%的話

244
00:11:33,072 --> 00:11:34,532
那套利交易做不下去

245
00:11:35,072 --> 00:11:37,232
所以套利交易最怕的是

246
00:11:37,232 --> 00:11:40,632
匯率的短期內迅速升值

247
00:11:40,632 --> 00:11:43,392
這個會把套利交易那個利差整個都吃掉

248
00:11:43,392 --> 00:11:48,632
所以一旦日本央行決定利率正常化

249
00:11:48,632 --> 00:11:53,392
估計會有很多套利交易的資金看到利差縮小

250
00:11:53,392 --> 00:11:57,232
趕快來還日元債務

251
00:11:57,232 --> 00:11:59,792
那一開始啟動以後

252
00:11:59,792 --> 00:12:04,072
更多的套利交易的資金會擔心匯率的升值

253
00:12:04,072 --> 00:12:06,112
把利差給吃掉

254
00:12:06,112 --> 00:12:09,232
只好趕快還日本債務

255
00:12:09,232 --> 00:12:12,472
就是卖掉美国欧洲那边的资产

256
00:12:12,472 --> 00:12:14,312
拿美元去买日元

257
00:12:14,312 --> 00:12:17,172
拿到日元去还掉日元债务

258
00:12:17,172 --> 00:12:19,632
这叫套利交易的平仓

259
00:12:19,632 --> 00:12:21,132
平仓潮

260
00:12:21,132 --> 00:12:23,232
然后你平仓我平仓

261
00:12:23,232 --> 00:12:25,212
大家平仓的结果日元的汇率

262
00:12:25,212 --> 00:12:26,832
真的只好一路升值

263
00:12:26,832 --> 00:12:28,292
这到预期心里

264
00:12:28,292 --> 00:12:31,012
那如果日本央行能够这么做

265
00:12:31,012 --> 00:12:32,452
让日元升值

266
00:12:32,452 --> 00:12:35,052
比如说从一美元兑155

267
00:12:35,052 --> 00:12:36,172
升到150

268
00:12:36,172 --> 00:12:37,992
升到148 145

269
00:12:37,992 --> 00:12:41,492
甚至于升到140以下

270
00:12:41,492 --> 00:12:43,232
比如135 138

271
00:12:43,232 --> 00:12:45,192
那日元升值以后

272
00:12:45,192 --> 00:12:47,772
日本进口的东西变便宜

273
00:12:47,772 --> 00:12:50,032
成本下降

274
00:12:50,032 --> 00:12:52,852
那么有助于通膨的下降

275
00:12:52,852 --> 00:12:54,952
那通膨下降以后

276
00:12:54,952 --> 00:12:58,072
日本的利率就不需要涨那么高

277
00:12:58,072 --> 00:12:59,832
甚至可以下修

278
00:12:59,832 --> 00:13:00,792
可以降息

279
00:13:00,792 --> 00:13:02,652
美国的原理一样

280
00:13:02,652 --> 00:13:04,532
你把通膨打下来之后

281
00:13:04,532 --> 00:13:07,572
中央银行就有降息的空间

282
00:13:07,572 --> 00:13:09,972
所以你短期内肯定要先强硬

283
00:13:09,972 --> 00:13:11,392
先升息对付通膨

284
00:13:11,392 --> 00:13:12,852
通膨下来之后

285
00:13:12,852 --> 00:13:14,312
你就有正当性来降息

286
00:13:14,312 --> 00:13:16,632
原理是这样的

287
00:13:16,632 --> 00:13:18,212
所以你看美联储现在

288
00:13:18,212 --> 00:13:20,212
也是对通膨强硬

289
00:13:20,212 --> 00:13:22,892
让这个通膨的预期心理

290
00:13:22,892 --> 00:13:23,792
能够降下来

291
00:13:23,792 --> 00:13:25,912
于是最后的企业的定价

292
00:13:25,912 --> 00:13:28,132
通膨的数据也开始反应

293
00:13:28,132 --> 00:13:29,252
降下来

294
00:13:29,252 --> 00:13:29,912
那这样的话

295
00:13:29,912 --> 00:13:31,492
美国的中央银行

296
00:13:31,492 --> 00:13:33,592
就有正当性来降息

297
00:13:33,592 --> 00:13:35,972
所以你不先升息的话

298
00:13:35,972 --> 00:13:37,172
你就没有办法降息

299
00:13:37,172 --> 00:13:39,412
你如果现在先降息的话

300
00:13:39,412 --> 00:13:40,672
可能通膨起来的话

301
00:13:40,672 --> 00:13:42,352
那你后面的只好升息

302
00:13:42,352 --> 00:13:44,572
所以你要搞清楚这个优先次序

303
00:13:44,572 --> 00:13:46,792
货币政策要先升息

304
00:13:46,792 --> 00:13:48,792
先强硬对付通膨

305
00:13:48,792 --> 00:13:50,412
那通膨下来之后

306
00:13:50,412 --> 00:13:51,972
就有正当性可以降息

307
00:13:51,972 --> 00:13:52,912
可以宽松

308
00:13:52,912 --> 00:13:53,792
是这样子来

309
00:13:53,792 --> 00:13:56,512
所以接下来日元的走势

310
00:13:56,512 --> 00:13:58,132
要看预期心理

311
00:13:58,132 --> 00:14:00,072
预期心理要看

312
00:14:00,072 --> 00:14:02,412
日本央行的货币政策走向

313
00:14:02,412 --> 00:14:04,832
日本央行如果开始放风

314
00:14:04,832 --> 00:14:06,152
开始打招呼

315
00:14:06,152 --> 00:14:07,412
跟金融市場打招呼

316
00:14:07,412 --> 00:14:09,292
要利率正常化

317
00:14:09,292 --> 00:14:10,892
那要升息

318
00:14:10,892 --> 00:14:12,632
那這樣的情況下

319
00:14:12,632 --> 00:14:16,132
從日本流出去的套利交易的資金

320
00:14:16,132 --> 00:14:18,172
會趕快賣掉美國

321
00:14:18,172 --> 00:14:19,892
歐洲那邊的資產

322
00:14:19,892 --> 00:14:22,912
趕快換成日元去還掉日元債務

323
00:14:22,912 --> 00:14:24,472
這個時候美國

324
00:14:24,472 --> 00:14:27,232
歐洲的資產市場會承受賣壓

325
00:14:27,232 --> 00:14:29,772
但估計這個賣壓是可以消化得了

326
00:14:29,772 --> 00:14:30,972
最後的話

327
00:14:30,972 --> 00:14:33,592
日本這個寬鬆的破口

328
00:14:33,592 --> 00:14:35,472
資金破口要關閉

329
00:14:35,472 --> 00:14:40,452
日本无法再一直承受提供廉价资金给美国欧洲

330
00:14:40,452 --> 00:14:45,112
美国欧洲现在已经是在因为对付通膨而升息

331
00:14:45,112 --> 00:14:47,312
在升息的情况下

332
00:14:47,312 --> 00:14:50,692
你无法期待有什么低利率这些

333
00:14:50,692 --> 00:14:54,952
你会期待利率高对经济来构成一个挤压

334
00:14:54,952 --> 00:15:00,132
所以现在要寻找正当性来降息

335
00:15:00,132 --> 00:15:03,592
货币政策必须先对通膨强硬

336
00:15:03,592 --> 00:15:05,752
改变通膨预期心理

337
00:15:05,752 --> 00:15:07,392
于是改变定价

338
00:15:07,392 --> 00:15:08,712
改变通膨数据

339
00:15:08,712 --> 00:15:10,372
最后通膨数据下来

340
00:15:10,372 --> 00:15:11,812
大家预期心理下来

341
00:15:11,812 --> 00:15:14,672
中央银行当然就有降息的空间

342
00:15:14,672 --> 00:15:15,492
是这样来

343
00:15:15,492 --> 00:15:20,572
所以日本央行如果开始启动利率正常化

344
00:15:20,572 --> 00:15:22,092
开始升息

345
00:15:22,092 --> 00:15:24,452
把目前基准利率1%

346
00:15:24,452 --> 00:15:26,132
升到2%

347
00:15:26,132 --> 00:15:27,012
至少2%

348
00:15:27,012 --> 00:15:29,832
如果将来日本的通膨率降下来

349
00:15:29,832 --> 00:15:31,992
比如降到2.5% 2.2%的话

350
00:15:31,992 --> 00:15:35,732
那么你基准利率2%勉勉强强

351
00:15:35,732 --> 00:15:38,732
就是说还可以说得过去勉强

352
00:15:38,732 --> 00:15:42,392
最好能够通膨率比利率还要低

353
00:15:42,392 --> 00:15:46,452
这样才对利率要超过通膨率这样才对

354
00:15:46,452 --> 00:15:51,532
那现在日本央行的态度就决定了日元汇率

355
00:15:51,532 --> 00:15:52,732
接下来的动向

356
00:15:53,063 --> 00:15:58,063
如果日本央行強硬的話,日元匯率會得到支撐。為什麼?

357
00:15:58,063 --> 00:16:01,063
因為套利交易出去的錢要回來嘛。

358
00:16:01,063 --> 00:16:05,063
要回來的結果資金流入日本,當然日元會走強嘛。

359
00:16:05,063 --> 00:16:06,983
日元走强这个预期

360
00:16:06,983 --> 00:16:09,463
又会催生更多的资金回流日本

361
00:16:09,463 --> 00:16:12,903
以免汇兑损失太大

362
00:16:12,903 --> 00:16:13,683
对不对

363
00:16:13,683 --> 00:16:17,643
所以估计日元有机会

364
00:16:17,643 --> 00:16:20,063
如果日本央行能够理解到这个

365
00:16:20,063 --> 00:16:21,823
能够看到我们这个节目

366
00:16:21,823 --> 00:16:24,763
能够理解到这个政策的逻辑

367
00:16:24,763 --> 00:16:27,643
那它展开利率正常化

368
00:16:27,643 --> 00:16:31,463
启动日元套利交易的平仓潮

369
00:16:31,463 --> 00:16:33,823
流出去的资金开始回流日本

370
00:16:33,823 --> 00:16:37,143
这又会让日元汇率进一步走强

371
00:16:37,143 --> 00:16:40,543
然后连续累积下来的话

372
00:16:40,543 --> 00:16:44,403
日元汇率可能会大大的升值一段弧度

373
00:16:44,403 --> 00:16:48,803
然后说不定就升破150升破145

374
00:16:48,803 --> 00:16:52,663
可能会先到比如说142 145这个地带

375
00:16:52,663 --> 00:16:55,043
之后看看情况有需要的话

376
00:16:55,043 --> 00:16:57,663
再往130那个方向推进

377
00:16:57,663 --> 00:17:00,063
就是日元将来要走升值

378
00:17:00,063 --> 00:17:03,743
才能够解决当下通膨的问题

379
00:17:03,743 --> 00:17:05,363
货币政策的问题

380
00:17:05,363 --> 00:17:09,543
以及日本在国际金融市场中的地位

381
00:17:09,543 --> 00:17:14,223
日本如果不能展开货币政策正常化的话

382
00:17:14,223 --> 00:17:19,223
那么他过度承担资金融通的压力

383
00:17:19,223 --> 00:17:21,443
替美国欧洲等于是岔屁股

384
00:17:21,443 --> 00:17:24,423
替美国欧洲提供宽松的资金

385
00:17:24,423 --> 00:17:27,123
最后日本自己会撑不住

386
00:17:27,123 --> 00:17:30,303
等于日本在对别的国家资金输血

387
00:17:30,303 --> 00:17:33,543
输到最后日本自己的缺血

388
00:17:33,543 --> 00:17:35,783
就是你不能一直捐血

389
00:17:35,783 --> 00:17:38,023
你不能一直对别人输血

390
00:17:38,023 --> 00:17:40,223
输一点可以一直输血

391
00:17:40,223 --> 00:17:41,783
然后输到最后你自己撑不住

392
00:17:41,783 --> 00:17:43,143
类似这个概念

393
00:17:43,143 --> 00:17:46,423
所以我们观察日元接下来的汇率动向

394
00:17:46,423 --> 00:17:49,023
首要观察的是日本央行态度

395
00:17:49,023 --> 00:17:50,383
这里补充一下

396
00:17:50,383 --> 00:17:51,823
日本央行态度在看什么

397
00:17:51,823 --> 00:17:52,663
看内需

398
00:17:52,663 --> 00:17:53,943
内需怎么看

399
00:17:53,943 --> 00:17:55,543
看工资增长率

400
00:17:55,543 --> 00:17:57,863
日本现在的工资增长率

401
00:17:57,863 --> 00:17:59,743
大企业跟工会的谈判

402
00:17:59,743 --> 00:18:01,903
大概加薪在5%以上

403
00:18:01,903 --> 00:18:04,983
这个有助于日本的工资增长率

404
00:18:04,983 --> 00:18:07,623
但是中小企业还没有完全跟上来

405
00:18:07,623 --> 00:18:10,143
所以日本现在的工资增长率

406
00:18:10,143 --> 00:18:11,863
有时候低于通膨率

407
00:18:11,863 --> 00:18:13,503
这样是不行的

408
00:18:13,503 --> 00:18:15,803
迟早日本的工资增长率

409
00:18:15,803 --> 00:18:17,823
要追上跟超过通膨率

410
00:18:17,823 --> 00:18:20,663
这样才是工资的实质上有增加

411
00:18:20,663 --> 00:18:23,863
工资增长率要比通膨率还要高

412
00:18:23,863 --> 00:18:24,603
这样才行

413
00:18:24,603 --> 00:18:26,723
日本央行在看这个信号

414
00:18:26,723 --> 00:18:30,523
所以如果将来工资增长率超过通膨率

415
00:18:30,523 --> 00:18:32,823
至少通膨率有降下來的話

416
00:18:32,823 --> 00:18:33,923
這個機會會更大

417
00:18:33,923 --> 00:18:38,623
那麼日本央行可能就更敢於進行貨幣政策

418
00:18:38,623 --> 00:18:40,023
正常化的這個操作

419
00:18:40,023 --> 00:18:43,623
讓利率走高追上跟超過通膨率

420
00:18:43,623 --> 00:18:46,023
應該會有這樣的情況

421
00:18:46,023 --> 00:18:49,923
那避免日本過度承擔資金寬鬆的這個任務

422
00:18:49,923 --> 00:18:52,623
以至於把日本的利器都消耗掉了

423
00:18:52,623 --> 00:18:54,223
那升息之後

424
00:18:54,223 --> 00:18:59,523
日本的政府的這個債務支出裡面的利息支出會上升

425
00:18:59,523 --> 00:19:02,383
但是因为日本经济得到反弹

426
00:19:02,383 --> 00:19:05,243
日本的政府税收有可能要增加

427
00:19:05,243 --> 00:19:07,703
足以抵消利息开支的增加

428
00:19:07,703 --> 00:19:09,983
这是一个比较乐观的展望

429
00:19:09,983 --> 00:19:15,223
那日本央行如果能够照目前我这里说的方向走的话

430
00:19:15,223 --> 00:19:18,663
那么日元汇率就可以得到真正的支撑

431
00:19:18,663 --> 00:19:23,043
否则的话国际资金又会把日元扁破160

432
00:19:23,043 --> 00:19:27,143
让之前的联合干预前功尽弃

433
00:19:27,143 --> 00:19:30,603
所以这个是我们观察日元汇率动向

434
00:19:30,603 --> 00:19:32,903
一个很重要的观察对象

435
00:19:32,903 --> 00:19:35,363
就是日本央行的行动

436
00:19:35,363 --> 00:19:38,203
以及日本央行所看重的指标

437
00:19:38,203 --> 00:19:39,983
就是工资增长率

438
00:19:39,983 --> 00:19:41,583
日本的工资增长率

439
00:19:41,583 --> 00:19:43,223
好 以上 谢谢

440
00:19:57,143 --> 00:20:18,983
各位海內熱觀衆朋友

441
00:20:18,983 --> 00:20:21,523
四年的時光彷彿是一場漫長

442
00:20:21,523 --> 00:20:23,323
卻堅定的逆風飛行

443
00:20:23,323 --> 00:20:24,583
小軍超音PLUS

444
00:20:24,583 --> 00:20:26,083
從舞到有避露藍綠

445
00:20:26,083 --> 00:20:27,463
每一步都走得艰辛

446
00:20:27,463 --> 00:20:29,763
却也因为有你们无比踏实

447
00:20:29,763 --> 00:20:31,743
谢谢每一个在喧嚣日常

448
00:20:31,743 --> 00:20:33,623
愿意用订阅付费加入会议

449
00:20:33,623 --> 00:20:34,663
来支持我们的朋友

450
00:20:34,663 --> 00:20:36,423
你们是我背后最温柔

451
00:20:36,423 --> 00:20:37,983
也是最坚持的依靠

452
00:20:37,983 --> 00:20:39,003
我们常常说

453
00:20:39,003 --> 00:20:40,603
一个人或许能够跑得快

454
00:20:40,603 --> 00:20:42,463
但一群人才能走得很远

455
00:20:42,463 --> 00:20:44,383
在这条守护真实的道路上

456
00:20:44,383 --> 00:20:46,623
我们依然需要更多人并肩同行

457
00:20:46,623 --> 00:20:48,123
因为知道这个时代

458
00:20:48,123 --> 00:20:49,463
不仅需要及时迈动

459
00:20:49,463 --> 00:20:50,603
更需要沉淀

460
00:20:50,603 --> 00:20:51,903
这些年来

461
00:20:51,903 --> 00:20:53,143
我们用行灌个了

462
00:20:53,143 --> 00:20:54,523
另外一个深度探讨空间

463
00:20:54,523 --> 00:20:55,963
Real Talk真实对话

464
00:20:55,963 --> 00:20:59,743
现在这一株幼苗正迎向10万人订阅了里程碑

465
00:20:59,743 --> 00:21:02,823
今天正式启动专属的付费会员制度

466
00:21:02,823 --> 00:21:04,923
这个承载着更多理念的频道

467
00:21:04,923 --> 00:21:07,963
同样渴望大家的支持大家的力量

468
00:21:07,963 --> 00:21:10,923
面对认知作战跟无孔不如打压

469
00:21:10,923 --> 00:21:14,323
我们主频道曾经数度遭到骇客入侵被迫停播

470
00:21:14,323 --> 00:21:16,843
暗处恶意让我们更深刻体会到

471
00:21:16,843 --> 00:21:19,083
民主堡垒不能够只有一个单于出口

472
00:21:19,083 --> 00:21:21,363
Real Talk不仅仅是一个新频道

473
00:21:21,363 --> 00:21:23,603
它是我们在风雨中预留的火种

474
00:21:23,603 --> 00:21:25,723
为了确保无论面临多大的黑夜

475
00:21:25,723 --> 00:21:27,523
真相的传递随时接棒

476
00:21:27,523 --> 00:21:29,843
让他们的民主火苗生生不息

477
00:21:29,843 --> 00:21:32,683
你是我继续五位前行最大的底细

478
00:21:32,683 --> 00:21:35,223
小军在这个地方诚实邀请您加入

479
00:21:35,223 --> 00:21:38,483
小军超文Plus跟Real Talk真实对话的付费会员

480
00:21:38,483 --> 00:21:40,703
让我们用彼此交握的双手

481
00:21:40,703 --> 00:21:42,223
点亮不灭的围光

482
00:21:42,223 --> 00:21:44,003
用实时的陪伴

483
00:21:44,003 --> 00:21:47,703
写下属于台湾一篇又一篇的故事