{
  "text": "美國跟歐洲在升息,在對抗通膨。日本卻繼續提供廉價資金。等同於在西方陣營裡面存在一個破口。資金寬鬆的破口。所以套利交易最怕的是,匯率的短期內迅速升值。這個會把套利交易那個利差整個都吃掉。\n就是日元将来要走升值才能够解决当下\n通膨的问题\n货币政策的问题\n以及日本在国际金融市场中的地位\n今天来谈一下日元汇率的未来动向\n前一阵子\n7月底到8月初\n美国日本联合干预日元的汇率\n然后现在我们要问的是\n日元汇率接下来要怎么看\n我是吴嘉隆\n各位小军台湾plus频道上的朋友们\n大家好\n日元汇率前阵子\n扁破日本政府设下的防线\n一比一美元换160日元\n这个160是一个\n重要关卡\n结果到158 159之后\n国际资金投石问路\n发现好像没有什么抵抗\n抵抗不足\n就是说日本央行的防守力道\n好像有点不够\n到了160\n到了161 162 163\n这样子就是\n眼睁睁要看着说\n要喊170了\n这个时候日本央行\n开始介入\n干预\n那个源头有一件事情是这样\n就是说日本为了降息\n他必须要把通膨压下来\n我们解释一下\n日本央行没有升息的一个重要原因\n是认为日本的通膨是输入性通膨\n输入性通膨的结果就是进口的东西\n能源 粮食 原材料等等\n很多进口的东西变贵\n变贵了之后当然就拉升成本\n造成通膨\n所以日本央行发现\n他日本现在的通膨\n是输入性通膨\n不是日本国内需求强大\n撑起来的通膨\n所以日本经济可能还不够强大\n还算是虚弱\n所以现在的通膨\n不完全算是正常情况下的通膨\n所以他不敢升息\n这个背景是这样\n他不升息的结果\n国际资金逐渐的胆大妄为了\n胆子变大了就开始打压日元\n然后在这种情况下出现了一件事情\n就是高市早苗首相为了压低通膨\n他降了消费税\n他把消费税降下来\n那么消费税原来算是日本政府的一个重要收入来源之一\n那么这个消费税降下来以后\n国际资金投机的资金开始下\n你这样子的话\n你日本政府少了税收\n所以你发行的国债要增加\n要增加国债发行\n增加国债发行的话\n那么债券价格会因为供给的增加而下跌\n也就是说日本的殖利率会走高\n那日本的殖利率走高的结果\n对日本经济不利\n所以应该可以预测日元会贬值\n所以国际资金在宣布消费税降低之后\n开始大规模的攻击日元\n于是日元就节节败退\n然后日本央行开始介入\n开始支撑\n然后从500多亿美金\n100多亿100多亿这样玩下来\n大约动用了700亿美金\n在市场上抛售美元\n来阻止美元对日元的升值\n也就是反过来讲支撑日元对美元的贬值\n就是说所谓日元贬值\n就是说很多人拿越来越多的日元去抢购一美元\n比如说本来155日元可以买到一美元\n后来160日元才能买到一美元\n后来变成163日元才能买一美元\n越来越多的日元去抢购美元\n这个叫做美元的升值或者日元的贬值\n所以要阻止日元贬值的办法\n就是在外汇市场上抛售美元\n你们要美元嘛 我抛售\n我提供\n我日本央行提供美元让你们来购买\n这样的话美元就不用\n升那么多 涨那么多\n这个意思是这样\n问题是\n日本央行就跟美国联系\n日本是外国势力持有最多的美国公债的国家\n如果日本开始抛售\n那么中国已经在抛售他手上持有的美国公债\n那么从当初最早的时候\n中国持有的美国公债大约1.2万兆美元\n现在已经降到不到8000\n应该是逼近7000亿美元\n不到8000亿美元\n已经大概已经卖掉了5000多亿的美国公债\n中共手上的美国公债在大量的减少\n然后如果日本也加入抛售的话\n可能会对美国国债市场构成卖压\n可能会让价格走低之后\n公债的殖利率30年起10年起\n这些公债殖利率会走高\n这样子的话等同一生息\n车贷房贷信用卡等等利率\n企业贷款这些利率都会根据10年起\n公债的殖利率来调整来走高\n这样的话对美国当然是有点有压力\n美国不乐见\n所以日本等于告诉美国\n你要帮我想办法\n不然的话我已经撑不住了\n我已经无法阻止日元的贬值\n那如果我要阻止它贬值的话\n我必须抛售手上的美国国债\n这样子\n那美国在压力之下\n不得不跳出来帮日本\n所以这一次是28年来\n每日之间第一次联手干预汇率\n所以以前1985年的时候\n所谓广场协议是美国在逼日本升职\n这一次其实是日本在逼美国\n你美国不跳下来救\n那我日本没办法了\n对不对撑不住了\n所以日本在跟美国打招呼\n要美国跳下来救\n那美国终于出手\n财政部长出手以后\n那总算把日元给拉回来\n从接近164拉到155 156\n就是美元对日元叠价\n等同于美元对日元有贬下来\n反过来讲就是日元对美元有升值上来\n接下来我们的问题是这样\n日元何去何从\n关键在于日本央行\n日本央行什么问题呢\n就是说你要不要启动货币政策正常化\n或者简称利率正常化\n什么意思呢\n因为基本上日本的整体CPI\n已经连续四年以上超过2%\n一度高达4%\n最近可能在3% 2.5% 3%之间游走\n这样的通膨率\n你绝对不能说它还在通货紧缩\n所以日本既然已经摆脱通货紧缩状态\n回到有通膨的年代\n那么利率就不能保持这么低\n就是說你不能用零利率來應對有一個有通膨的時代\n日本央行必須啟動利率正常化。什麼意思呢?就是利率要追上通膨率。\n而且還要超過。在有通膨的年代,利率不能是這個比通膨率低。\n那你有通貨緊縮的話\n你利率是零利率甚至於負利率OK\n但是現在日本已經擺脫通縮狀態\n進入通膨狀態\n這個時候利率就不能比通膨率低\n現在的通膨率大約3%上下\n那麼你利率再怎麼低\n你也要到2%以上\n現在才1%\n現在是從零利率升到1%\n1%還是低的 你看看\n所以日本的利率问题\n基本问题在于说它是套利交易的对象\n就是说大家在日元这里借利息\n借日元的话利率低\n现在日本的基准利率\n央行的基准利率是1%\n美国这边的基准利率是3.5%到3.75%\n换句话说美日之间的利差就2.5%\n或更多一点点\n那国际金融机构在日本借日元\n然后拿日元去买美元\n变成美元以后在美国操作投资运用\n那欧元也一样类似\n所以日本变成了一个资金宽松的来源\n一个窗口\n美国跟欧洲在升息在对抗通膨\n日本却继续提供廉价资金\n等同于在西方阵营里面存在一个破口\n资金宽松的破口\n美欧金融机构各种投资基金等等\n跑去日本借日元\n然后来换成美元欧元来投资运用\n这叫套利交易\n套利交易的话是资金从日本流出\n然后到美国去买股票买债券等等\n买房地产买各种资产\n那现在他们的风险是什么\n他们的风险是汇率\n汇率升值\n我先简单讲这个利差假设是2.5\n我们先跳开交易成本\n现在表面上的利差是2.5%\n那么美元会因此走死\n因为资金从日本流出来的话\n日元会贬值\n美元对日元会升值\n那这个升值一定会升过头\n升到大家觉得美元升太高了\n可能要贬值\n大概贬多少\n预期可能要贬2.5%\n这个时候你赚的利差会被汇兑损失\n就是汇率的那个升值\n美元升过头以后将来美元会开始贬值\n叫做你会有汇兑损失\n这个汇兑损失如果估计是2.5%\n那你的利差就被汇兑损失吃掉\n你就不值得再去做利差交易\n套利交易\n你借日元嘛\n然后去赚美国的利差的话就2.5%\n如果汇率波动超过2.5%\n那你不就虧錢了嗎\n所以套利交易的主要風險在於\n美元對日元的匯匯匯\n美元升過頭之後\n可能會有貶值的壓力\n就是漲過頭以後會修正拉回修正\n這個拉回如果是超過2.5%\n那我賺的那個利差不夠應付會對損失\n美元可能會因為升過頭而匯匯\n這個貶值的損失\n如果超過2.5%的話\n那套利交易做不下去\n所以套利交易最怕的是\n匯率的短期內迅速升值\n這個會把套利交易那個利差整個都吃掉\n所以一旦日本央行決定利率正常化\n估計會有很多套利交易的資金看到利差縮小\n趕快來還日元債務\n那一開始啟動以後\n更多的套利交易的資金會擔心匯率的升值\n把利差給吃掉\n只好趕快還日本債務\n就是卖掉美国欧洲那边的资产\n拿美元去买日元\n拿到日元去还掉日元债务\n这叫套利交易的平仓\n平仓潮\n然后你平仓我平仓\n大家平仓的结果日元的汇率\n真的只好一路升值\n这到预期心里\n那如果日本央行能够这么做\n让日元升值\n比如说从一美元兑155\n升到150\n升到148 145\n甚至于升到140以下\n比如135 138\n那日元升值以后\n日本进口的东西变便宜\n成本下降\n那么有助于通膨的下降\n那通膨下降以后\n日本的利率就不需要涨那么高\n甚至可以下修\n可以降息\n美国的原理一样\n你把通膨打下来之后\n中央银行就有降息的空间\n所以你短期内肯定要先强硬\n先升息对付通膨\n通膨下来之后\n你就有正当性来降息\n原理是这样的\n所以你看美联储现在\n也是对通膨强硬\n让这个通膨的预期心理\n能够降下来\n于是最后的企业的定价\n通膨的数据也开始反应\n降下来\n那这样的话\n美国的中央银行\n就有正当性来降息\n所以你不先升息的话\n你就没有办法降息\n你如果现在先降息的话\n可能通膨起来的话\n那你后面的只好升息\n所以你要搞清楚这个优先次序\n货币政策要先升息\n先强硬对付通膨\n那通膨下来之后\n就有正当性可以降息\n可以宽松\n是这样子来\n所以接下来日元的走势\n要看预期心理\n预期心理要看\n日本央行的货币政策走向\n日本央行如果开始放风\n开始打招呼\n跟金融市場打招呼\n要利率正常化\n那要升息\n那這樣的情況下\n從日本流出去的套利交易的資金\n會趕快賣掉美國\n歐洲那邊的資產\n趕快換成日元去還掉日元債務\n這個時候美國\n歐洲的資產市場會承受賣壓\n但估計這個賣壓是可以消化得了\n最後的話\n日本這個寬鬆的破口\n資金破口要關閉\n日本无法再一直承受提供廉价资金给美国欧洲\n美国欧洲现在已经是在因为对付通膨而升息\n在升息的情况下\n你无法期待有什么低利率这些\n你会期待利率高对经济来构成一个挤压\n所以现在要寻找正当性来降息\n货币政策必须先对通膨强硬\n改变通膨预期心理\n于是改变定价\n改变通膨数据\n最后通膨数据下来\n大家预期心理下来\n中央银行当然就有降息的空间\n是这样来\n所以日本央行如果开始启动利率正常化\n开始升息\n把目前基准利率1%\n升到2%\n至少2%\n如果将来日本的通膨率降下来\n比如降到2.5% 2.2%的话\n那么你基准利率2%勉勉强强\n就是说还可以说得过去勉强\n最好能够通膨率比利率还要低\n这样才对利率要超过通膨率这样才对\n那现在日本央行的态度就决定了日元汇率\n接下来的动向\n如果日本央行強硬的話,日元匯率會得到支撐。為什麼?\n因為套利交易出去的錢要回來嘛。\n要回來的結果資金流入日本,當然日元會走強嘛。\n日元走强这个预期\n又会催生更多的资金回流日本\n以免汇兑损失太大\n对不对\n所以估计日元有机会\n如果日本央行能够理解到这个\n能够看到我们这个节目\n能够理解到这个政策的逻辑\n那它展开利率正常化\n启动日元套利交易的平仓潮\n流出去的资金开始回流日本\n这又会让日元汇率进一步走强\n然后连续累积下来的话\n日元汇率可能会大大的升值一段弧度\n然后说不定就升破150升破145\n可能会先到比如说142 145这个地带\n之后看看情况有需要的话\n再往130那个方向推进\n就是日元将来要走升值\n才能够解决当下通膨的问题\n货币政策的问题\n以及日本在国际金融市场中的地位\n日本如果不能展开货币政策正常化的话\n那么他过度承担资金融通的压力\n替美国欧洲等于是岔屁股\n替美国欧洲提供宽松的资金\n最后日本自己会撑不住\n等于日本在对别的国家资金输血\n输到最后日本自己的缺血\n就是你不能一直捐血\n你不能一直对别人输血\n输一点可以一直输血\n然后输到最后你自己撑不住\n类似这个概念\n所以我们观察日元接下来的汇率动向\n首要观察的是日本央行态度\n这里补充一下\n日本央行态度在看什么\n看内需\n内需怎么看\n看工资增长率\n日本现在的工资增长率\n大企业跟工会的谈判\n大概加薪在5%以上\n这个有助于日本的工资增长率\n但是中小企业还没有完全跟上来\n所以日本现在的工资增长率\n有时候低于通膨率\n这样是不行的\n迟早日本的工资增长率\n要追上跟超过通膨率\n这样才是工资的实质上有增加\n工资增长率要比通膨率还要高\n这样才行\n日本央行在看这个信号\n所以如果将来工资增长率超过通膨率\n至少通膨率有降下來的話\n這個機會會更大\n那麼日本央行可能就更敢於進行貨幣政策\n正常化的這個操作\n讓利率走高追上跟超過通膨率\n應該會有這樣的情況\n那避免日本過度承擔資金寬鬆的這個任務\n以至於把日本的利器都消耗掉了\n那升息之後\n日本的政府的這個債務支出裡面的利息支出會上升\n但是因为日本经济得到反弹\n日本的政府税收有可能要增加\n足以抵消利息开支的增加\n这是一个比较乐观的展望\n那日本央行如果能够照目前我这里说的方向走的话\n那么日元汇率就可以得到真正的支撑\n否则的话国际资金又会把日元扁破160\n让之前的联合干预前功尽弃\n所以这个是我们观察日元汇率动向\n一个很重要的观察对象\n就是日本央行的行动\n以及日本央行所看重的指标\n就是工资增长率\n日本的工资增长率\n好 以上 谢谢\n各位海內熱觀衆朋友\n四年的時光彷彿是一場漫長\n卻堅定的逆風飛行\n小軍超音PLUS\n從舞到有避露藍綠\n每一步都走得艰辛\n却也因为有你们无比踏实\n谢谢每一个在喧嚣日常\n愿意用订阅付费加入会议\n来支持我们的朋友\n你们是我背后最温柔\n也是最坚持的依靠\n我们常常说\n一个人或许能够跑得快\n但一群人才能走得很远\n在这条守护真实的道路上\n我们依然需要更多人并肩同行\n因为知道这个时代\n不仅需要及时迈动\n更需要沉淀\n这些年来\n我们用行灌个了\n另外一个深度探讨空间\nReal Talk真实对话\n现在这一株幼苗正迎向10万人订阅了里程碑\n今天正式启动专属的付费会员制度\n这个承载着更多理念的频道\n同样渴望大家的支持大家的力量\n面对认知作战跟无孔不如打压\n我们主频道曾经数度遭到骇客入侵被迫停播\n暗处恶意让我们更深刻体会到\n民主堡垒不能够只有一个单于出口\nReal Talk不仅仅是一个新频道\n它是我们在风雨中预留的火种\n为了确保无论面临多大的黑夜\n真相的传递随时接棒\n让他们的民主火苗生生不息\n你是我继续五位前行最大的底细\n小军在这个地方诚实邀请您加入\n小军超文Plus跟Real Talk真实对话的付费会员\n让我们用彼此交握的双手\n点亮不灭的围光\n用实时的陪伴\n写下属于台湾一篇又一篇的故事",
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      "text": "美國跟歐洲在升息,在對抗通膨。日本卻繼續提供廉價資金。等同於在西方陣營裡面存在一個破口。資金寬鬆的破口。所以套利交易最怕的是,匯率的短期內迅速升值。這個會把套利交易那個利差整個都吃掉。",
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      "text": "货币政策的问题",
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      "text": "以及日本在国际金融市场中的地位",
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      "start": 32.68,
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      "text": "今天来谈一下日元汇率的未来动向",
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      "start": 46.94,
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      "text": "前一阵子",
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    {
      "start": 48.44,
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      "text": "7月底到8月初",
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      "start": 51.18,
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      "text": "美国日本联合干预日元的汇率",
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      "start": 54.98,
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      "text": "然后现在我们要问的是",
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      "text": "日元汇率接下来要怎么看",
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      "start": 60.06,
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      "text": "我是吴嘉隆",
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    {
      "start": 61.96,
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      "text": "各位小军台湾plus频道上的朋友们",
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    {
      "start": 64.56,
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      "text": "大家好",
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      "start": 65.16,
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      "text": "日元汇率前阵子",
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    {
      "start": 68.9,
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      "text": "扁破日本政府设下的防线",
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    {
      "start": 72.1,
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      "text": "一比一美元换160日元",
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      "start": 74.7,
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      "text": "这个160是一个",
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      "start": 77.36,
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      "text": "重要关卡",
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      "start": 78.9,
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      "text": "结果到158 159之后",
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    {
      "start": 83.12,
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      "text": "国际资金投石问路",
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      "start": 86.54,
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      "text": "发现好像没有什么抵抗",
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      "start": 88.52,
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      "text": "抵抗不足",
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      "start": 90.02,
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      "text": "就是说日本央行的防守力道",
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      "start": 92.48,
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      "text": "好像有点不够",
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      "start": 93.44,
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      "text": "到了160",
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    {
      "start": 95.16,
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      "text": "到了161 162 163",
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      "start": 97.72,
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      "text": "这样子就是",
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      "start": 99.42,
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      "text": "眼睁睁要看着说",
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      "start": 101.8,
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      "text": "要喊170了",
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      "text": "这个时候日本央行",
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      "start": 105.88,
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      "text": "开始介入",
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      "text": "干预",
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      "start": 107.68,
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      "text": "那个源头有一件事情是这样",
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      "text": "就是说日本为了降息",
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      "start": 114.92,
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      "text": "他必须要把通膨压下来",
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      "start": 117.78,
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      "text": "我们解释一下",
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      "text": "输入性通膨的结果就是进口的东西",
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    {
      "start": 129.52,
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      "text": "能源 粮食 原材料等等",
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      "text": "很多进口的东西变贵",
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      "start": 134.88,
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      "text": "变贵了之后当然就拉升成本",
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      "start": 137.84,
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      "text": "造成通膨",
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      "text": "他日本现在的通膨",
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      "text": "不是日本国内需求强大",
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      "text": "撑起来的通膨",
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      "text": "还算是虚弱",
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      "text": "不完全算是正常情况下的通膨",
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      "text": "所以他不敢升息",
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      "start": 160.74,
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      "text": "这个背景是这样",
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      "start": 163.74,
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      "text": "国际资金逐渐的胆大妄为了",
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      "text": "胆子变大了就开始打压日元",
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      "text": "然后在这种情况下出现了一件事情",
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      "text": "就是高市早苗首相为了压低通膨",
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      "start": 176.26,
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      "text": "他降了消费税",
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      "start": 178.76,
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      "text": "他把消费税降下来",
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      "text": "那么消费税原来算是日本政府的一个重要收入来源之一",
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      "start": 189.58,
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      "text": "国际资金投机的资金开始下",
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    {
      "start": 193.6,
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      "text": "你这样子的话",
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      "text": "你日本政府少了税收",
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      "start": 196.78,
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      "text": "所以你发行的国债要增加",
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      "start": 201.0,
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      "text": "要增加国债发行",
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      "text": "增加国债发行的话",
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      "text": "那么债券价格会因为供给的增加而下跌",
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      "text": "也就是说日本的殖利率会走高",
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      "text": "那日本的殖利率走高的结果",
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      "text": "所以国际资金在宣布消费税降低之后",
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      "text": "开始大规模的攻击日元",
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      "text": "开始支撑",
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      "text": "然后从500多亿美金",
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      "text": "100多亿100多亿这样玩下来",
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      "text": "大约动用了700亿美金",
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      "text": "在市场上抛售美元",
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      "text": "来阻止美元对日元的升值",
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      "text": "也就是反过来讲支撑日元对美元的贬值",
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      "text": "就是说很多人拿越来越多的日元去抢购一美元",
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      "text": "比如说本来155日元可以买到一美元",
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      "text": "后来160日元才能买到一美元",
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      "text": "后来变成163日元才能买一美元",
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      "text": "越来越多的日元去抢购美元",
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      "text": "这个叫做美元的升值或者日元的贬值",
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      "text": "就是在外汇市场上抛售美元",
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      "text": "你们要美元嘛 我抛售",
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      "text": "我提供",
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      "text": "我日本央行提供美元让你们来购买",
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      "text": "这样的话美元就不用",
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      "start": 291.96,
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      "text": "升那么多 涨那么多",
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      "start": 293.16,
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      "text": "这个意思是这样",
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      "text": "问题是",
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      "text": "日本央行就跟美国联系",
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      "text": "日本是外国势力持有最多的美国公债的国家",
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      "text": "那么中国已经在抛售他手上持有的美国公债",
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      "text": "中国持有的美国公债大约1.2万兆美元",
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      "text": "现在已经降到不到8000",
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      "text": "已经大概已经卖掉了5000多亿的美国公债",
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      "text": "中共手上的美国公债在大量的减少",
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      "text": "可能会对美国国债市场构成卖压",
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      "text": "公债的殖利率30年起10年起",
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      "text": "这些公债殖利率会走高",
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      "text": "这样子的话等同一生息",
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      "text": "车贷房贷信用卡等等利率",
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      "text": "企业贷款这些利率都会根据10年起",
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      "text": "公债的殖利率来调整来走高",
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      "text": "这样的话对美国当然是有点有压力",
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      "text": "美国不乐见",
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      "text": "所以日本等于告诉美国",
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      "text": "你要帮我想办法",
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      "text": "我已经无法阻止日元的贬值",
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      "start": 383.12,
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      "text": "那美国在压力之下",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.12533781582251527,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5324982602371584e-11,
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    {
      "start": 384.6,
      "end": 386.7,
      "text": "不得不跳出来帮日本",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12533781582251527,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5324982602371584e-11,
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    {
      "start": 386.7,
      "end": 389.46,
      "text": "所以这一次是28年来",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12533781582251527,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5324982602371584e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4024896265560165
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    {
      "start": 389.46,
      "end": 392.32,
      "text": "每日之间第一次联手干预汇率",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4624924535300288e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3622047244094488
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    {
      "start": 392.32,
      "end": 394.94,
      "text": "所以以前1985年的时候",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
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    {
      "start": 394.94,
      "end": 398.4,
      "text": "所谓广场协议是美国在逼日本升职",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4624924535300288e-11,
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    {
      "start": 398.4,
      "end": 401.88,
      "text": "这一次其实是日本在逼美国",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4624924535300288e-11,
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    {
      "start": 401.88,
      "end": 404.5,
      "text": "你美国不跳下来救",
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      "start": 404.5,
      "end": 407.0,
      "text": "那我日本没办法了",
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    {
      "start": 407.0,
      "end": 407.96,
      "text": "对不对撑不住了",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4624924535300288e-11,
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    {
      "start": 407.96,
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      "text": "所以日本在跟美国打招呼",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4624924535300288e-11,
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    {
      "start": 410.46,
      "end": 412.26,
      "text": "要美国跳下来救",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4624924535300288e-11,
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    {
      "start": 412.26,
      "end": 413.76,
      "text": "那美国终于出手",
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    {
      "start": 413.76,
      "end": 415.72,
      "text": "财政部长出手以后",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1471465450900418,
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    },
    {
      "start": 415.72,
      "end": 417.9,
      "text": "那总算把日元给拉回来",
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    },
    {
      "start": 417.9,
      "end": 423.14,
      "text": "从接近164拉到155 156",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.15209798079270584,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2607632819683356e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3666666666666667
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    {
      "start": 423.14,
      "end": 425.08,
      "text": "就是美元对日元叠价",
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    {
      "start": 425.08,
      "end": 427.88,
      "text": "等同于美元对日元有贬下来",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.15209798079270584,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2607632819683356e-11,
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    {
      "start": 427.88,
      "end": 431.04,
      "text": "反过来讲就是日元对美元有升值上来",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.15209798079270584,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2607632819683356e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 431.04,
      "end": 433.02,
      "text": "接下来我们的问题是这样",
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    {
      "start": 433.02,
      "end": 433.9,
      "text": "日元何去何从",
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    {
      "start": 433.9,
      "end": 436.58,
      "text": "关键在于日本央行",
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      "start": 436.58,
      "end": 438.88,
      "text": "日本央行什么问题呢",
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    {
      "start": 438.88,
      "end": 443.42,
      "text": "就是说你要不要启动货币政策正常化",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2607632819683356e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 443.42,
      "end": 445.7,
      "text": "或者简称利率正常化",
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    {
      "start": 445.7,
      "end": 446.8,
      "text": "什么意思呢",
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    {
      "start": 446.8,
      "end": 450.92,
      "text": "因为基本上日本的整体CPI",
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    {
      "start": 450.92,
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      "text": "已经连续四年以上超过2%",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1844525360515945e-11,
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    {
      "start": 454.26,
      "end": 456.8,
      "text": "一度高达4%",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1262386245727539,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1844525360515945e-11,
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    {
      "start": 456.8,
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      "text": "最近可能在3% 2.5% 3%之间游走",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1262386245727539,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1844525360515945e-11,
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    {
      "start": 461.02,
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      "text": "这样的通膨率",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1262386245727539,
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    {
      "start": 462.94,
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      "text": "你绝对不能说它还在通货紧缩",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1262386245727539,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1844525360515945e-11,
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    {
      "start": 466.14,
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      "text": "所以日本既然已经摆脱通货紧缩状态",
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    {
      "start": 471.06,
      "end": 473.6,
      "text": "回到有通膨的年代",
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      "start": 473.6,
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      "text": "那么利率就不能保持这么低",
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      "start": 476.64,
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      "text": "就是說你不能用零利率來應對有一個有通膨的時代",
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      "text": "日本央行必須啟動利率正常化。什麼意思呢?就是利率要追上通膨率。",
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      "start": 488.872,
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      "text": "而且還要超過。在有通膨的年代,利率不能是這個比通膨率低。",
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      "start": 496.072,
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      "text": "那你有通貨緊縮的話",
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    {
      "start": 498.572,
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      "text": "你利率是零利率甚至於負利率OK",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.14435696783866592,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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      "start": 502.072,
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      "text": "但是現在日本已經擺脫通縮狀態",
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    {
      "start": 505.572,
      "end": 507.572,
      "text": "進入通膨狀態",
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    {
      "start": 507.572,
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      "text": "這個時候利率就不能比通膨率低",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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    {
      "start": 510.072,
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      "text": "現在的通膨率大約3%上下",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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    {
      "start": 513.072,
      "end": 516.072,
      "text": "那麼你利率再怎麼低",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.14435696783866592,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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    {
      "start": 516.072,
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      "text": "你也要到2%以上",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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    {
      "start": 518.072,
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      "text": "現在才1%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.14435696783866592,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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    {
      "start": 519.572,
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      "text": "現在是從零利率升到1%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
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    {
      "start": 522.572,
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      "text": "1%還是低的 你看看",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.14435696783866592,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.521016125549668e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.326271186440678
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    {
      "start": 525.072,
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      "text": "所以日本的利率问题",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 527.072,
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      "text": "基本问题在于说它是套利交易的对象",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1700809592063433e-11,
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      "start": 530.672,
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      "text": "就是说大家在日元这里借利息",
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      "start": 534.472,
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      "text": "借日元的话利率低",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19262535845647094,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1700809592063433e-11,
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      "start": 536.472,
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      "text": "现在日本的基准利率",
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    {
      "start": 538.512,
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      "text": "央行的基准利率是1%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19262535845647094,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1700809592063433e-11,
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    {
      "start": 540.572,
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      "text": "美国这边的基准利率是3.5%到3.75%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19262535845647094,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1700809592063433e-11,
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    {
      "start": 545.572,
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      "text": "换句话说美日之间的利差就2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.19262535845647094,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1700809592063433e-11,
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    {
      "start": 549.672,
      "end": 551.372,
      "text": "或更多一点点",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.19262535845647094,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1700809592063433e-11,
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    {
      "start": 551.372,
      "end": 555.472,
      "text": "那国际金融机构在日本借日元",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.13212908231295073,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3461161872674321e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3291139240506329
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    {
      "start": 555.472,
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      "text": "然后拿日元去买美元",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3461161872674321e-11,
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    {
      "start": 557.772,
      "end": 561.272,
      "text": "变成美元以后在美国操作投资运用",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.13212908231295073,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3461161872674321e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3291139240506329
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    {
      "start": 561.272,
      "end": 563.172,
      "text": "那欧元也一样类似",
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    {
      "start": 563.172,
      "end": 568.672,
      "text": "所以日本变成了一个资金宽松的来源",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3461161872674321e-11,
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    {
      "start": 568.672,
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      "text": "一个窗口",
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      "start": 569.672,
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      "text": "美国跟欧洲在升息在对抗通膨",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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    {
      "start": 573.472,
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      "text": "日本却继续提供廉价资金",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3291139240506329
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    {
      "start": 576.772,
      "end": 581.072,
      "text": "等同于在西方阵营里面存在一个破口",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.13212908231295073,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3461161872674321e-11,
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    {
      "start": 581.072,
      "end": 583.072,
      "text": "资金宽松的破口",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3846153846153846
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    {
      "start": 583.072,
      "end": 587.072,
      "text": "美欧金融机构各种投资基金等等",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3846153846153846
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    {
      "start": 587.072,
      "end": 589.072,
      "text": "跑去日本借日元",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3846153846153846
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    {
      "start": 589.072,
      "end": 593.072,
      "text": "然后来换成美元欧元来投资运用",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
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    {
      "start": 593.072,
      "end": 595.072,
      "text": "这叫套利交易",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
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    {
      "start": 595.072,
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      "text": "套利交易的话是资金从日本流出",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
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    {
      "start": 598.072,
      "end": 602.072,
      "text": "然后到美国去买股票买债券等等",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
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    {
      "start": 602.072,
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      "text": "买房地产买各种资产",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09030801541096456,
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    {
      "start": 604.072,
      "end": 607.072,
      "text": "那现在他们的风险是什么",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
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    {
      "start": 607.072,
      "end": 608.072,
      "text": "他们的风险是汇率",
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    {
      "start": 608.072,
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      "text": "汇率升值",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1571268249133126e-11,
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      "text": "我先简单讲这个利差假设是2.5",
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    {
      "start": 613.532,
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      "text": "我们先跳开交易成本",
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    {
      "start": 615.712,
      "end": 618.672,
      "text": "现在表面上的利差是2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1548740032107331,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.078684103844596e-11,
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    {
      "start": 618.672,
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      "text": "那么美元会因此走死",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 621.452,
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      "text": "因为资金从日本流出来的话",
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      "start": 623.852,
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      "text": "日元会贬值",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 625.112,
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      "text": "美元对日元会升值",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 627.252,
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      "text": "那这个升值一定会升过头",
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    {
      "start": 629.832,
      "end": 631.892,
      "text": "升到大家觉得美元升太高了",
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    {
      "start": 631.892,
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      "text": "可能要贬值",
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    {
      "start": 633.532,
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      "text": "大概贬多少",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 634.832,
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      "text": "预期可能要贬2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 637.792,
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      "text": "这个时候你赚的利差会被汇兑损失",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 641.632,
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      "text": "就是汇率的那个升值",
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      "start": 644.192,
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      "text": "美元升过头以后将来美元会开始贬值",
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      "start": 647.092,
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      "text": "叫做你会有汇兑损失",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text": "这个汇兑损失如果估计是2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3728172244820147e-11,
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    {
      "start": 652.632,
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      "text": "那你的利差就被汇兑损失吃掉",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 655.192,
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      "text": "你就不值得再去做利差交易",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 658.012,
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      "text": "套利交易",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.15809661719449766,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3728172244820147e-11,
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      "start": 659.812,
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      "text": "你借日元嘛",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 661.772,
      "end": 664.672,
      "text": "然后去赚美国的利差的话就2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.15809661719449766,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.3728172244820147e-11,
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    {
      "start": 664.672,
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      "text": "如果汇率波动超过2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 666.712,
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      "text": "那你不就虧錢了嗎",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 668.712,
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      "text": "所以套利交易的主要風險在於",
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    {
      "start": 671.272,
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      "text": "美元對日元的匯匯匯",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 673.472,
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      "text": "美元升過頭之後",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.3028752710912135,
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    {
      "start": 675.012,
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      "text": "可能會有貶值的壓力",
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    {
      "start": 677.172,
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      "text": "就是漲過頭以後會修正拉回修正",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 680.512,
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      "text": "這個拉回如果是超過2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 683.612,
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      "text": "那我賺的那個利差不夠應付會對損失",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 686.712,
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      "text": "美元可能會因為升過頭而匯匯",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text": "這個貶值的損失",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text": "如果超過2.5%的話",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 693.072,
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      "text": "那套利交易做不下去",
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      "start": 695.072,
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      "text": "所以套利交易最怕的是",
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      "text": "匯率的短期內迅速升值",
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    {
      "start": 700.632,
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      "text": "這個會把套利交易那個利差整個都吃掉",
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    {
      "start": 703.392,
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      "text": "所以一旦日本央行決定利率正常化",
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    {
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      "text": "估計會有很多套利交易的資金看到利差縮小",
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    {
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      "text": "趕快來還日元債務",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 717.232,
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      "text": "那一開始啟動以後",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 719.792,
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      "text": "更多的套利交易的資金會擔心匯率的升值",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 724.072,
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      "text": "把利差給吃掉",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 726.112,
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      "text": "只好趕快還日本債務",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.3846950495943755e-11,
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    {
      "start": 729.232,
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      "text": "就是卖掉美国欧洲那边的资产",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12701096032795153,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8914347518772523e-11,
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    {
      "start": 732.472,
      "end": 734.312,
      "text": "拿美元去买日元",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12701096032795153,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8914347518772523e-11,
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    {
      "start": 734.312,
      "end": 737.172,
      "text": "拿到日元去还掉日元债务",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.12701096032795153,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.8914347518772523e-11,
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    {
      "start": 737.172,
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      "text": "这叫套利交易的平仓",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.8914347518772523e-11,
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      "start": 739.632,
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      "text": "平仓潮",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 741.132,
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      "text": "然后你平仓我平仓",
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    {
      "start": 743.232,
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      "text": "大家平仓的结果日元的汇率",
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    {
      "start": 745.212,
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      "text": "真的只好一路升值",
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    {
      "start": 746.832,
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      "text": "这到预期心里",
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    {
      "start": 748.292,
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      "text": "那如果日本央行能够这么做",
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    {
      "start": 751.012,
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      "text": "让日元升值",
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    {
      "start": 752.452,
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      "text": "比如说从一美元兑155",
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    {
      "start": 755.052,
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      "text": "升到150",
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    {
      "start": 756.172,
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      "text": "升到148 145",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.8914347518772523e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3400809716599191
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    {
      "start": 757.992,
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      "text": "甚至于升到140以下",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.2918454935622317
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    {
      "start": 761.492,
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      "text": "比如135 138",
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      "start": 763.232,
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      "text": "那日元升值以后",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.2918454935622317
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      "start": 765.192,
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      "text": "日本进口的东西变便宜",
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    {
      "start": 767.772,
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      "text": "成本下降",
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    {
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      "text": "那么有助于通膨的下降",
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    {
      "start": 772.852,
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      "text": "那通膨下降以后",
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      "start": 774.952,
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      "text": "日本的利率就不需要涨那么高",
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      "start": 778.072,
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      "text": "甚至可以下修",
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      "start": 779.832,
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      "text": "可以降息",
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    {
      "start": 780.792,
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      "text": "美国的原理一样",
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      "text": "你把通膨打下来之后",
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      "text": "中央银行就有降息的空间",
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      "start": 787.572,
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      "text": "所以你短期内肯定要先强硬",
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      "text": "先升息对付通膨",
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    {
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      "text": "通膨下来之后",
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    {
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      "text": "你就有正当性来降息",
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      "text": "原理是这样的",
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      "text": "所以你看美联储现在",
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      "start": 798.212,
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      "text": "也是对通膨强硬",
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    {
      "start": 800.212,
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      "text": "让这个通膨的预期心理",
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      "start": 802.892,
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      "text": "能够降下来",
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    {
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      "text": "于是最后的企业的定价",
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      "text": "通膨的数据也开始反应",
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      "text": "降下来",
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      "start": 809.252,
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      "text": "那这样的话",
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      "text": "美国的中央银行",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
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      "text": "就有正当性来降息",
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      "text": "所以你不先升息的话",
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      "text": "你就没有办法降息",
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      "text": "你如果现在先降息的话",
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    {
      "start": 819.412,
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      "text": "可能通膨起来的话",
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      "text": "那你后面的只好升息",
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      "start": 822.352,
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      "text": "所以你要搞清楚这个优先次序",
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    {
      "start": 824.572,
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      "text": "货币政策要先升息",
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    {
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      "text": "先强硬对付通膨",
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      "text": "那通膨下来之后",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 830.412,
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      "text": "就有正当性可以降息",
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      "start": 831.972,
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      "text": "可以宽松",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 832.912,
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      "text": "是这样子来",
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      "start": 833.792,
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      "text": "所以接下来日元的走势",
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      "start": 836.512,
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      "text": "要看预期心理",
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    {
      "start": 838.132,
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      "text": "预期心理要看",
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    {
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      "text": "日本央行的货币政策走向",
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    {
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      "text": "日本央行如果开始放风",
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    {
      "start": 844.832,
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      "text": "开始打招呼",
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    {
      "start": 846.152,
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      "text": "跟金融市場打招呼",
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    {
      "start": 847.412,
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      "text": "要利率正常化",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 849.292,
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      "text": "那要升息",
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    {
      "start": 850.892,
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      "text": "那這樣的情況下",
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    {
      "start": 852.632,
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      "text": "從日本流出去的套利交易的資金",
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    {
      "start": 856.132,
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      "text": "會趕快賣掉美國",
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      "start": 858.172,
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      "text": "歐洲那邊的資產",
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    {
      "start": 859.892,
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      "text": "趕快換成日元去還掉日元債務",
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    {
      "start": 862.912,
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      "text": "這個時候美國",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 864.472,
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      "text": "歐洲的資產市場會承受賣壓",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4505008305576439e-11,
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    {
      "start": 867.232,
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      "text": "但估計這個賣壓是可以消化得了",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 869.772,
      "end": 870.972,
      "text": "最後的話",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text": "日本這個寬鬆的破口",
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      "start": 873.592,
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      "text": "資金破口要關閉",
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      "start": 875.472,
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      "text": "日本无法再一直承受提供廉价资金给美国欧洲",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4387530229698076e-11,
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      "start": 880.452,
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      "text": "美国欧洲现在已经是在因为对付通膨而升息",
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      "start": 885.112,
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      "text": "在升息的情况下",
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      "start": 887.312,
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      "text": "你无法期待有什么低利率这些",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07467931462085153,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4387530229698076e-11,
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      "start": 890.692,
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      "text": "你会期待利率高对经济来构成一个挤压",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4387530229698076e-11,
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    {
      "start": 894.952,
      "end": 900.132,
      "text": "所以现在要寻找正当性来降息",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4387530229698076e-11,
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    {
      "start": 900.132,
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      "text": "货币政策必须先对通膨强硬",
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    {
      "start": 903.592,
      "end": 905.752,
      "text": "改变通膨预期心理",
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      "start": 905.752,
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      "text": "于是改变定价",
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      "text": "改变通膨数据",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text": "最后通膨数据下来",
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    {
      "start": 910.372,
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      "text": "大家预期心理下来",
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      "start": 911.812,
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      "text": "中央银行当然就有降息的空间",
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      "text": "是这样来",
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      "text": "所以日本央行如果开始启动利率正常化",
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      "start": 920.572,
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      "text": "开始升息",
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      "text": "把目前基准利率1%",
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      "text": "升到2%",
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      "text": "至少2%",
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      "text": "如果将来日本的通膨率降下来",
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      "start": 929.832,
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      "text": "比如降到2.5% 2.2%的话",
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      "start": 931.992,
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      "text": "那么你基准利率2%勉勉强强",
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      "text": "就是说还可以说得过去勉强",
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      "text": "最好能够通膨率比利率还要低",
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      "text": "这样才对利率要超过通膨率这样才对",
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      "text": "那现在日本央行的态度就决定了日元汇率",
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      "text": "接下来的动向",
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      "text": "如果日本央行強硬的話,日元匯率會得到支撐。為什麼?",
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      "start": 958.063,
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      "text": "因為套利交易出去的錢要回來嘛。",
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      "text": "要回來的結果資金流入日本,當然日元會走強嘛。",
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      "text": "日元走强这个预期",
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      "text": "又会催生更多的资金回流日本",
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      "text": "以免汇兑损失太大",
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      "text": "对不对",
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      "text": "所以估计日元有机会",
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      "text": "如果日本央行能够理解到这个",
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      "text": "能够看到我们这个节目",
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      "text": "能够理解到这个政策的逻辑",
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      "text": "那它展开利率正常化",
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      "text": "启动日元套利交易的平仓潮",
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      "text": "流出去的资金开始回流日本",
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      "text": "这又会让日元汇率进一步走强",
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      "text": "然后连续累积下来的话",
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      "text": "日元汇率可能会大大的升值一段弧度",
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      "text": "然后说不定就升破150升破145",
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      "text": "可能会先到比如说142 145这个地带",
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      "text": "之后看看情况有需要的话",
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      "text": "再往130那个方向推进",
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      "text": "就是日元将来要走升值",
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      "text": "才能够解决当下通膨的问题",
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      "text": "货币政策的问题",
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      "text": "以及日本在国际金融市场中的地位",
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      "text": "日本如果不能展开货币政策正常化的话",
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      "text": "那么他过度承担资金融通的压力",
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    {
      "start": 1039.223,
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      "text": "替美国欧洲等于是岔屁股",
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      "text": "替美国欧洲提供宽松的资金",
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      "text": "最后日本自己会撑不住",
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      "start": 1047.123,
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      "text": "等于日本在对别的国家资金输血",
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      "text": "输到最后日本自己的缺血",
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      "start": 1053.543,
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      "text": "就是你不能一直捐血",
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      "text": "你不能一直对别人输血",
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      "start": 1058.023,
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      "text": "输一点可以一直输血",
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    {
      "start": 1060.223,
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      "text": "然后输到最后你自己撑不住",
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      "start": 1061.783,
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      "text": "类似这个概念",
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      "start": 1063.143,
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      "text": "所以我们观察日元接下来的汇率动向",
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      "text": "首要观察的是日本央行态度",
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      "start": 1069.023,
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      "text": "这里补充一下",
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      "text": "日本央行态度在看什么",
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      "text": "看内需",
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      "text": "内需怎么看",
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      "text": "看工资增长率",
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    {
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      "text": "日本现在的工资增长率",
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    {
      "start": 1077.863,
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      "text": "大企业跟工会的谈判",
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      "start": 1079.743,
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      "text": "大概加薪在5%以上",
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      "text": "这个有助于日本的工资增长率",
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      "text": "但是中小企业还没有完全跟上来",
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    {
      "start": 1087.623,
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      "text": "所以日本现在的工资增长率",
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      "text": "有时候低于通膨率",
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      "text": "这样是不行的",
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    {
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      "text": "迟早日本的工资增长率",
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      "text": "要追上跟超过通膨率",
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      "text": "这样才是工资的实质上有增加",
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      "text": "工资增长率要比通膨率还要高",
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      "text": "这样才行",
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      "text": "日本央行在看这个信号",
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    {
      "start": 1106.723,
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      "text": "所以如果将来工资增长率超过通膨率",
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      "start": 1110.523,
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      "text": "至少通膨率有降下來的話",
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      "text": "這個機會會更大",
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      "text": "那麼日本央行可能就更敢於進行貨幣政策",
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    {
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      "text": "正常化的這個操作",
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      "text": "讓利率走高追上跟超過通膨率",
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      "text": "應該會有這樣的情況",
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      "text": "那避免日本過度承擔資金寬鬆的這個任務",
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      "text": "以至於把日本的利器都消耗掉了",
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      "text": "那升息之後",
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      "text": "日本的政府的這個債務支出裡面的利息支出會上升",
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      "text": "但是因为日本经济得到反弹",
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      "text": "日本的政府税收有可能要增加",
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      "text": "足以抵消利息开支的增加",
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      "text": "这是一个比较乐观的展望",
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      "text": "那日本央行如果能够照目前我这里说的方向走的话",
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      "text": "那么日元汇率就可以得到真正的支撑",
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      "text": "否则的话国际资金又会把日元扁破160",
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      "text": "让之前的联合干预前功尽弃",
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      "text": "所以这个是我们观察日元汇率动向",
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      "text": "一个很重要的观察对象",
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      "text": "就是日本央行的行动",
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      "text": "以及日本央行所看重的指标",
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      "text": "就是工资增长率",
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      "text": "日本的工资增长率",
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    {
      "start": 1181.583,
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      "text": "好 以上 谢谢",
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      "text": "各位海內熱觀衆朋友",
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      "text": "四年的時光彷彿是一場漫長",
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      "text": "卻堅定的逆風飛行",
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      "text": "小軍超音PLUS",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1224.583,
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      "text": "從舞到有避露藍綠",
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    {
      "start": 1226.083,
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      "text": "每一步都走得艰辛",
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    {
      "start": 1227.463,
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      "text": "却也因为有你们无比踏实",
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    {
      "start": 1229.763,
      "end": 1231.743,
      "text": "谢谢每一个在喧嚣日常",
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    {
      "start": 1231.743,
      "end": 1233.623,
      "text": "愿意用订阅付费加入会议",
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    {
      "start": 1233.623,
      "end": 1234.663,
      "text": "来支持我们的朋友",
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    {
      "start": 1234.663,
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      "text": "你们是我背后最温柔",
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