{
  "model": "OpenMOSS-Team/MOSS-Transcribe-Diarize",
  "language": "ja",
  "audio": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260818_125155__カプセルトイに透ける中国経済の実態_習近平氏は景気対策に興味なし_NIKKEI_NEWS_NEXT/audio_16k_mono.wav",
  "raw_text": "[0.84][S01] Capsule toys are popular even among foreign tourists.[3.74][7.57][S01] Actually, something unusual is happening.[9.83][10.12][S01] Some manufacturers say they aren't hit hard by rising crude oil prices linked to the Middle East situation.[15.26][18.86][S01] This is a product from a boutique capsule toy maker, the Cat Sculpture series.[22.97][25.96][S01] They use plastic, which has been soaring in price, but they say there is almost no supply anxiety.[31.21][33.97][S01] A manufacturer that works with regional mascots and trades with China revealed the reason why.[38.74][40.72][S02] Naftha prices haven't really gone up there.[43.01][52.13][S02] They seem to have the impression that it's just related to fuel products like gasoline,[56.42][56.62][S02] and since production of Chinese-made toys has been dropping for about four years straight,[61.24][61.61][S02] demand was already low, but now it's suddenly rising, so it's balancing out.[66.37][66.64][S02] They are just using up the leftover raw materials efficiently.[69.76][78.82][S01] The background to this is China's domestic economic slump.[81.84][83.15][S01] This is a plastic market in China.[85.01][87.84][S01] Many shops are shuttered, and because of price wars, they can't lower prices and are left with massive inventory.[93.48][96.09][S01] Amid this, surplus resin meant for home appliances and building materials is flowing into the toy industry.[101.71][106.72][S01] Since capsule toys are small and don't use much resin, existing stock is enough to absorb current demand.[112.16][115.28][S01] The reality of the Chinese economy seen through capsule toys.[118.54][119.01][S01] We will analyze the bottom of this.[120.74][120.86][S03] Yes.[121.44][122.34][S03] As we just saw, the surplus resin caused by China's domestic slump is flowing into toy manufacturing, right?[128.37][129.97][S03] How should we interpret this situation?[131.91][136.51][S03] Well, it's true that demand for resin in sectors like furniture and building materials[140.77][140.77][S03] has dropped significantly due to the real estate slump,[143.54][143.81][S03] so that supply is indeed flowing elsewhere, but I think the supply side issues are also quite significant.[149.06][155.24][S03] Companies expanded their facilities significantly, including those involved in exports,[159.77][159.84][S03] which led to a state of oversupply.[161.66][161.97][S03] The balance between supply and demand collapsed, resulting in excess inventory.[166.14][168.86][S03] I suspect that some of this surplus inventory is being diverted toward exports.[172.81][174.24][S04] I see.[174.94][179.17][S04] You mentioned that supply is currently excessive, but I'd also like to look closely at the demand side,[183.94][184.06][S04] so let's take a more detailed look at the retail sales figures I mentioned earlier.[187.86][191.67][S04] The purple section, which is primarily petroleum.[194.37][194.87][S04] This shows a negative figure.[196.37][196.87][S04] Petroleum products, that is.[198.66][199.87][S04] Is indeed negative, but the negative impact in the automotive sector, shown in orange, really stands out.[205.61][207.07][S03] That's true.[207.87][210.17][S03] Automobiles typically account for about 30% of retail sales, so the significant decline there is notable.[215.94][216.17][S03] I believe policy factors are largely behind this.[218.84][222.87][S03] For one, there's a trade-in incentive program for consumer goods that began in 2024,[227.87][228.11][S03] which has had the effect of pulling demand forward.[230.41][234.07][S03] Another factor is that since January of this year,[236.64][236.77][S03] the purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles was reduced from 10% to 5%,[241.51][241.71][S03] which I think is also having an impact.[243.54][246.11][S03] In addition, the rising cost of crude oil seems to be driving a decline in gasoline demand.[251.01][251.34][S04] I see.[252.04][252.67][S04] This decline in petroleum products seems to have started around 2024.[256.67][256.97][S04] Was there a specific trigger for this?[258.81][259.81][S03] I believe it is primarily due to falling prices.[262.24][264.20][S03] Beyond that, as demand for gasoline-powered cars continues to drop in China,[268.33][268.51][S03] the demand for gasoline itself is declining as well.[271.20][271.54][S03] I think that's what we're seeing.[272.89][274.24][S04] I see.[274.94][278.14][S04] While I think it was somewhat understood even before the trial run that there would be a reactionary decline,[283.01][283.24][S04] were the consumption stimulus measures implemented by China so far effective for a certain period?[287.77][291.04][S03] That's correct.[291.84][293.39][S03] As you say, this policy did contribute to supporting consumption starting around the second half of 2024.[299.31][300.54][S04] Well, from the second half of 2024 through the first half of 2025, that is.[305.14][308.20][S04] The effects were mainly seen in home appliances,[310.54][310.61][S04] and while I think it did have the effect of propping up otherwise weak consumption,[314.41][314.61][S04] it was ultimately a pull-forward of demand that only boosted things for a limited time.[318.74][318.89][S04] So I don't see it as a policy that fundamentally lifts consumption.[322.07][325.67][S03] Right.[326.14][327.54][S03] Where does the fundamental problem lie that keeps it from being a policy that boosts consumption?[332.04][333.20][S03] Well, I think the impact of the real estate slump is quite significant.[336.94][340.91][S03] Since around 2021, as shown here, real estate-related indicators have continued to deteriorate,[346.54][346.67][S03] and since about 70% of urban household assets are held in housing,[350.41][350.54][S03] when housing prices decline for a long time, the negative wealth effect inevitably cools consumption.[355.84][359.34][S04] I see.[360.04][361.41][S04] So, I suppose consumption won't pick up unless that is resolved.[364.67][364.87][S04] But another indicator, fixed asset investment for July, was also released today.[369.41][374.47][S04] This specifically represents corporate investment and national infrastructure investment,[378.74][378.87][S04] but how should we interpret these figures?[380.74][385.37][S03] Well, the decline widened in July,[387.47][387.57][S03] and the area where the negative margin is expanding most notably is in infrastructure investment.[392.11][395.24][S03] Well, infrastructure investment was quite strong in the first quarter,[398.74][398.87][S03] and it's said that projects related to the five-year plan were moved up, but there was a subsequent rebound.[403.94][408.37][S03] In addition to that, the impact of typhoons and heavy rain,[411.54][411.64][S03] as well as the fiscal difficulties in local regions, appear to be affecting the progress of infrastructure investment.[417.34][423.24][S04] We've looked at the domestic situation, but I'd also like to look at China's exports,[427.51][427.61][S04] which grew by over 20% in July compared to the same month last year, showing strong performance.[433.17][435.64][S03] That's right.[436.34][437.41][S03] In contrast to the sluggish domestic market, exports are performing quite well,[441.64][441.74][S03] particularly in integrated circuits, computers, computer components, and automobiles.[446.71][449.14][S03] The strength in integrated circuits and computer components is, I believe,[452.87][452.97][S03] driven by the rising global demand for AI-related technologies.[456.44][459.11][S03] As for automobiles, while domestic sales are not very strong,[462.41][462.54][S03] as we saw earlier, exports are essentially compensating for that domestic slump.[466.81][470.01][S03] Meanwhile, the Trump administration recently released a report on transshipment,[474.11][474.27][S03] where goods are shipped to the U.S. via third countries with relatively lower tariffs.[478.34][481.11][S04] With roughly 12 trillion yen in transshipments coming from China annually,[484.94][485.07][S04] effectively putting pressure on the Chinese side, how do you view this report?[488.84][492.34][S03] Well, considering that such high tariffs, exceeding 100% at one point,[496.74][496.91][S03] were imposed last year, it makes sense that this type of transshipment activity has increased.[501.71][507.04][S03] Now, regarding simple exports, for instance,[509.84][509.87][S03] those using quite basic methods like relabeling products to disguise their country of origin,[514.44][514.71][S03] the U.S. and third countries, including those in Southeast Asia,[518.04][518.11][S03] have been significantly stepping up their monitoring efforts.[520.87][524.47][S03] So, I think it's becoming quite difficult to pull that off in the current climate.[528.24][528.41][S04] Yeah.[528.97][529.47][S04] As for the volume, rather than illicit exports, there has been a trend of legitimate exports, so to speak.[535.44][538.30][S04] Ever since the first Trump administration and the start of these trade wars,[541.66][541.71][S04] Chinese companies and foreign firms based in China[544.66][544.77][S04] have been gradually shifting their production bases to Southeast Asia and other third countries.[549.41][553.24][S04] To strengthen production there, they are exporting components from China,[556.74][556.84][S04] adding legitimate value, and then exporting those goods to the U.S. and elsewhere.[561.01][561.16][S04] That trend is definitely growing.[562.84][565.84][S04] Does that mean the countermeasures taken so far have been effective?[568.71][569.97][S03] That's right.[570.66][571.37][S03] Well, I don't think they're perfect, but in response to those measures,[574.84][574.87][S03] I believe the move toward adding legitimate value is gaining momentum.[578.24][578.87][S04] Right.[579.34][579.94][S04] How do you view the future impact of the Trump tariffs?[582.54][583.30][S03] Well, I think there is a high degree of uncertainty moving forward.[586.71][589.27][S03] For instance, just the other day, as noted here,[592.01][592.11][S03] the tariffs on China based on Section 301 of the Trade Act, citing forced labor, were set at 12.5%.[598.80][602.97][S03] There's also talk that more might be imposed later due to excess capacity.[606.66][609.71][S03] So, the tariff rate, which was 10% until July, could potentially rise to around 20%.[615.34][618.84][S04] Well, for now, U.S.-China relations are moving towards stabilization,[622.77][622.87][S04] so I don't really foresee a situation where things suddenly take a turn for the worse.[627.01][631.04][S01] Even including indirect exports, the fact that shipments from China to the U.S. have grown this much is striking,[636.74][636.87][S01] especially given the high tariffs and the ongoing trade war,[639.77][639.94][S01] but I think it shows there is a real need in the U.S.[642.41][644.91][S01] Is that mainly due to semiconductors, specifically what are called legacy chips?[649.07][649.11][S03] Yeah, that's right. I think there are movements like that as well.[652.24][656.87][S03] As you pointed out, regarding general-purpose semiconductors,[659.97][660.07][S03] while AI-related demand is currently rising,[662.37][662.51][S03] it's said that these AI servers also use a significant amount of general-purpose chips,[666.71][666.84][S03] so that demand may be driving the increase in exports from China to the U.S.[670.71][677.66][S03] Next, we will ask if China can reach its GDP growth target.[681.16]",
  "segments": [
    {
      "start": 0.84,
      "end": 3.74,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Capsule toys are popular even among foreign tourists."
    },
    {
      "start": 7.57,
      "end": 9.83,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Actually, something unusual is happening."
    },
    {
      "start": 10.12,
      "end": 15.26,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Some manufacturers say they aren't hit hard by rising crude oil prices linked to the Middle East situation."
    },
    {
      "start": 18.86,
      "end": 22.97,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "This is a product from a boutique capsule toy maker, the Cat Sculpture series."
    },
    {
      "start": 25.96,
      "end": 31.21,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "They use plastic, which has been soaring in price, but they say there is almost no supply anxiety."
    },
    {
      "start": 33.97,
      "end": 38.74,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "A manufacturer that works with regional mascots and trades with China revealed the reason why."
    },
    {
      "start": 40.72,
      "end": 43.01,
      "speaker": "S02",
      "text": "Naftha prices haven't really gone up there."
    },
    {
      "start": 52.13,
      "end": 56.42,
      "speaker": "S02",
      "text": "They seem to have the impression that it's just related to fuel products like gasoline,"
    },
    {
      "start": 56.62,
      "end": 61.24,
      "speaker": "S02",
      "text": "and since production of Chinese-made toys has been dropping for about four years straight,"
    },
    {
      "start": 61.61,
      "end": 66.37,
      "speaker": "S02",
      "text": "demand was already low, but now it's suddenly rising, so it's balancing out."
    },
    {
      "start": 66.64,
      "end": 69.76,
      "speaker": "S02",
      "text": "They are just using up the leftover raw materials efficiently."
    },
    {
      "start": 78.82,
      "end": 81.84,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "The background to this is China's domestic economic slump."
    },
    {
      "start": 83.15,
      "end": 85.01,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "This is a plastic market in China."
    },
    {
      "start": 87.84,
      "end": 93.48,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Many shops are shuttered, and because of price wars, they can't lower prices and are left with massive inventory."
    },
    {
      "start": 96.09,
      "end": 101.71,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Amid this, surplus resin meant for home appliances and building materials is flowing into the toy industry."
    },
    {
      "start": 106.72,
      "end": 112.16,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Since capsule toys are small and don't use much resin, existing stock is enough to absorb current demand."
    },
    {
      "start": 115.28,
      "end": 118.54,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "The reality of the Chinese economy seen through capsule toys."
    },
    {
      "start": 119.01,
      "end": 120.74,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "We will analyze the bottom of this."
    },
    {
      "start": 120.86,
      "end": 121.44,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Yes."
    },
    {
      "start": 122.34,
      "end": 128.37,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "As we just saw, the surplus resin caused by China's domestic slump is flowing into toy manufacturing, right?"
    },
    {
      "start": 129.97,
      "end": 131.91,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "How should we interpret this situation?"
    },
    {
      "start": 136.51,
      "end": 140.77,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, it's true that demand for resin in sectors like furniture and building materials"
    },
    {
      "start": 140.77,
      "end": 143.54,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "has dropped significantly due to the real estate slump,"
    },
    {
      "start": 143.81,
      "end": 149.06,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "so that supply is indeed flowing elsewhere, but I think the supply side issues are also quite significant."
    },
    {
      "start": 155.24,
      "end": 159.77,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Companies expanded their facilities significantly, including those involved in exports,"
    },
    {
      "start": 159.84,
      "end": 161.66,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "which led to a state of oversupply."
    },
    {
      "start": 161.97,
      "end": 166.14,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "The balance between supply and demand collapsed, resulting in excess inventory."
    },
    {
      "start": 168.86,
      "end": 172.81,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "I suspect that some of this surplus inventory is being diverted toward exports."
    },
    {
      "start": 174.24,
      "end": 174.94,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "I see."
    },
    {
      "start": 179.17,
      "end": 183.94,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "You mentioned that supply is currently excessive, but I'd also like to look closely at the demand side,"
    },
    {
      "start": 184.06,
      "end": 187.86,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "so let's take a more detailed look at the retail sales figures I mentioned earlier."
    },
    {
      "start": 191.67,
      "end": 194.37,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "The purple section, which is primarily petroleum."
    },
    {
      "start": 194.87,
      "end": 196.37,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "This shows a negative figure."
    },
    {
      "start": 196.87,
      "end": 198.66,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Petroleum products, that is."
    },
    {
      "start": 199.87,
      "end": 205.61,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Is indeed negative, but the negative impact in the automotive sector, shown in orange, really stands out."
    },
    {
      "start": 207.07,
      "end": 207.87,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "That's true."
    },
    {
      "start": 210.17,
      "end": 215.94,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Automobiles typically account for about 30% of retail sales, so the significant decline there is notable."
    },
    {
      "start": 216.17,
      "end": 218.84,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "I believe policy factors are largely behind this."
    },
    {
      "start": 222.87,
      "end": 227.87,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "For one, there's a trade-in incentive program for consumer goods that began in 2024,"
    },
    {
      "start": 228.11,
      "end": 230.41,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "which has had the effect of pulling demand forward."
    },
    {
      "start": 234.07,
      "end": 236.64,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Another factor is that since January of this year,"
    },
    {
      "start": 236.77,
      "end": 241.51,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "the purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles was reduced from 10% to 5%,"
    },
    {
      "start": 241.71,
      "end": 243.54,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "which I think is also having an impact."
    },
    {
      "start": 246.11,
      "end": 251.01,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "In addition, the rising cost of crude oil seems to be driving a decline in gasoline demand."
    },
    {
      "start": 251.34,
      "end": 252.04,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "I see."
    },
    {
      "start": 252.67,
      "end": 256.67,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "This decline in petroleum products seems to have started around 2024."
    },
    {
      "start": 256.97,
      "end": 258.81,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Was there a specific trigger for this?"
    },
    {
      "start": 259.81,
      "end": 262.24,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "I believe it is primarily due to falling prices."
    },
    {
      "start": 264.2,
      "end": 268.33,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Beyond that, as demand for gasoline-powered cars continues to drop in China,"
    },
    {
      "start": 268.51,
      "end": 271.2,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "the demand for gasoline itself is declining as well."
    },
    {
      "start": 271.54,
      "end": 272.89,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "I think that's what we're seeing."
    },
    {
      "start": 274.24,
      "end": 274.94,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "I see."
    },
    {
      "start": 278.14,
      "end": 283.01,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "While I think it was somewhat understood even before the trial run that there would be a reactionary decline,"
    },
    {
      "start": 283.24,
      "end": 287.77,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "were the consumption stimulus measures implemented by China so far effective for a certain period?"
    },
    {
      "start": 291.04,
      "end": 291.84,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "That's correct."
    },
    {
      "start": 293.39,
      "end": 299.31,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "As you say, this policy did contribute to supporting consumption starting around the second half of 2024."
    },
    {
      "start": 300.54,
      "end": 305.14,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Well, from the second half of 2024 through the first half of 2025, that is."
    },
    {
      "start": 308.2,
      "end": 310.54,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "The effects were mainly seen in home appliances,"
    },
    {
      "start": 310.61,
      "end": 314.41,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "and while I think it did have the effect of propping up otherwise weak consumption,"
    },
    {
      "start": 314.61,
      "end": 318.74,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "it was ultimately a pull-forward of demand that only boosted things for a limited time."
    },
    {
      "start": 318.89,
      "end": 322.07,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "So I don't see it as a policy that fundamentally lifts consumption."
    },
    {
      "start": 325.67,
      "end": 326.14,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Right."
    },
    {
      "start": 327.54,
      "end": 332.04,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Where does the fundamental problem lie that keeps it from being a policy that boosts consumption?"
    },
    {
      "start": 333.2,
      "end": 336.94,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, I think the impact of the real estate slump is quite significant."
    },
    {
      "start": 340.91,
      "end": 346.54,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Since around 2021, as shown here, real estate-related indicators have continued to deteriorate,"
    },
    {
      "start": 346.67,
      "end": 350.41,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "and since about 70% of urban household assets are held in housing,"
    },
    {
      "start": 350.54,
      "end": 355.84,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "when housing prices decline for a long time, the negative wealth effect inevitably cools consumption."
    },
    {
      "start": 359.34,
      "end": 360.04,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "I see."
    },
    {
      "start": 361.41,
      "end": 364.67,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "So, I suppose consumption won't pick up unless that is resolved."
    },
    {
      "start": 364.87,
      "end": 369.41,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "But another indicator, fixed asset investment for July, was also released today."
    },
    {
      "start": 374.47,
      "end": 378.74,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "This specifically represents corporate investment and national infrastructure investment,"
    },
    {
      "start": 378.87,
      "end": 380.74,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "but how should we interpret these figures?"
    },
    {
      "start": 385.37,
      "end": 387.47,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, the decline widened in July,"
    },
    {
      "start": 387.57,
      "end": 392.11,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "and the area where the negative margin is expanding most notably is in infrastructure investment."
    },
    {
      "start": 395.24,
      "end": 398.74,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, infrastructure investment was quite strong in the first quarter,"
    },
    {
      "start": 398.87,
      "end": 403.94,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "and it's said that projects related to the five-year plan were moved up, but there was a subsequent rebound."
    },
    {
      "start": 408.37,
      "end": 411.54,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "In addition to that, the impact of typhoons and heavy rain,"
    },
    {
      "start": 411.64,
      "end": 417.34,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "as well as the fiscal difficulties in local regions, appear to be affecting the progress of infrastructure investment."
    },
    {
      "start": 423.24,
      "end": 427.51,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "We've looked at the domestic situation, but I'd also like to look at China's exports,"
    },
    {
      "start": 427.61,
      "end": 433.17,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "which grew by over 20% in July compared to the same month last year, showing strong performance."
    },
    {
      "start": 435.64,
      "end": 436.34,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "That's right."
    },
    {
      "start": 437.41,
      "end": 441.64,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "In contrast to the sluggish domestic market, exports are performing quite well,"
    },
    {
      "start": 441.74,
      "end": 446.71,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "particularly in integrated circuits, computers, computer components, and automobiles."
    },
    {
      "start": 449.14,
      "end": 452.87,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "The strength in integrated circuits and computer components is, I believe,"
    },
    {
      "start": 452.97,
      "end": 456.44,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "driven by the rising global demand for AI-related technologies."
    },
    {
      "start": 459.11,
      "end": 462.41,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "As for automobiles, while domestic sales are not very strong,"
    },
    {
      "start": 462.54,
      "end": 466.81,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "as we saw earlier, exports are essentially compensating for that domestic slump."
    },
    {
      "start": 470.01,
      "end": 474.11,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Meanwhile, the Trump administration recently released a report on transshipment,"
    },
    {
      "start": 474.27,
      "end": 478.34,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "where goods are shipped to the U.S. via third countries with relatively lower tariffs."
    },
    {
      "start": 481.11,
      "end": 484.94,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "With roughly 12 trillion yen in transshipments coming from China annually,"
    },
    {
      "start": 485.07,
      "end": 488.84,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "effectively putting pressure on the Chinese side, how do you view this report?"
    },
    {
      "start": 492.34,
      "end": 496.74,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, considering that such high tariffs, exceeding 100% at one point,"
    },
    {
      "start": 496.91,
      "end": 501.71,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "were imposed last year, it makes sense that this type of transshipment activity has increased."
    },
    {
      "start": 507.04,
      "end": 509.84,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Now, regarding simple exports, for instance,"
    },
    {
      "start": 509.87,
      "end": 514.44,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "those using quite basic methods like relabeling products to disguise their country of origin,"
    },
    {
      "start": 514.71,
      "end": 518.04,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "the U.S. and third countries, including those in Southeast Asia,"
    },
    {
      "start": 518.11,
      "end": 520.87,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "have been significantly stepping up their monitoring efforts."
    },
    {
      "start": 524.47,
      "end": 528.24,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "So, I think it's becoming quite difficult to pull that off in the current climate."
    },
    {
      "start": 528.41,
      "end": 528.97,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Yeah."
    },
    {
      "start": 529.47,
      "end": 535.44,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "As for the volume, rather than illicit exports, there has been a trend of legitimate exports, so to speak."
    },
    {
      "start": 538.3,
      "end": 541.66,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Ever since the first Trump administration and the start of these trade wars,"
    },
    {
      "start": 541.71,
      "end": 544.66,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Chinese companies and foreign firms based in China"
    },
    {
      "start": 544.77,
      "end": 549.41,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "have been gradually shifting their production bases to Southeast Asia and other third countries."
    },
    {
      "start": 553.24,
      "end": 556.74,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "To strengthen production there, they are exporting components from China,"
    },
    {
      "start": 556.84,
      "end": 561.01,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "adding legitimate value, and then exporting those goods to the U.S. and elsewhere."
    },
    {
      "start": 561.16,
      "end": 562.84,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "That trend is definitely growing."
    },
    {
      "start": 565.84,
      "end": 568.71,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Does that mean the countermeasures taken so far have been effective?"
    },
    {
      "start": 569.97,
      "end": 570.66,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "That's right."
    },
    {
      "start": 571.37,
      "end": 574.84,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, I don't think they're perfect, but in response to those measures,"
    },
    {
      "start": 574.87,
      "end": 578.24,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "I believe the move toward adding legitimate value is gaining momentum."
    },
    {
      "start": 578.87,
      "end": 579.34,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Right."
    },
    {
      "start": 579.94,
      "end": 582.54,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "How do you view the future impact of the Trump tariffs?"
    },
    {
      "start": 583.3,
      "end": 586.71,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Well, I think there is a high degree of uncertainty moving forward."
    },
    {
      "start": 589.27,
      "end": 592.01,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "For instance, just the other day, as noted here,"
    },
    {
      "start": 592.11,
      "end": 598.8,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "the tariffs on China based on Section 301 of the Trade Act, citing forced labor, were set at 12.5%."
    },
    {
      "start": 602.97,
      "end": 606.66,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "There's also talk that more might be imposed later due to excess capacity."
    },
    {
      "start": 609.71,
      "end": 615.34,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "So, the tariff rate, which was 10% until July, could potentially rise to around 20%."
    },
    {
      "start": 618.84,
      "end": 622.77,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "Well, for now, U.S.-China relations are moving towards stabilization,"
    },
    {
      "start": 622.87,
      "end": 627.01,
      "speaker": "S04",
      "text": "so I don't really foresee a situation where things suddenly take a turn for the worse."
    },
    {
      "start": 631.04,
      "end": 636.74,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Even including indirect exports, the fact that shipments from China to the U.S. have grown this much is striking,"
    },
    {
      "start": 636.87,
      "end": 639.77,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "especially given the high tariffs and the ongoing trade war,"
    },
    {
      "start": 639.94,
      "end": 642.41,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "but I think it shows there is a real need in the U.S."
    },
    {
      "start": 644.91,
      "end": 649.07,
      "speaker": "S01",
      "text": "Is that mainly due to semiconductors, specifically what are called legacy chips?"
    },
    {
      "start": 649.11,
      "end": 652.24,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Yeah, that's right. I think there are movements like that as well."
    },
    {
      "start": 656.87,
      "end": 659.97,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "As you pointed out, regarding general-purpose semiconductors,"
    },
    {
      "start": 660.07,
      "end": 662.37,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "while AI-related demand is currently rising,"
    },
    {
      "start": 662.51,
      "end": 666.71,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "it's said that these AI servers also use a significant amount of general-purpose chips,"
    },
    {
      "start": 666.84,
      "end": 670.71,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "so that demand may be driving the increase in exports from China to the U.S."
    },
    {
      "start": 677.66,
      "end": 681.16,
      "speaker": "S03",
      "text": "Next, we will ask if China can reach its GDP growth target."
    }
  ]
}