{
  "text": "有學生曾問，既然美國債券收益率是固定利率，那麼升息或降息其實不會影響美國債務。\n例如，當時利率是3.8%，你發行100萬美元的債券，未來20年每年支付的都是這3.8%，無論利率如何升降。\n到期時，你只需償還本金100萬美元給債權人。\n所以學生問，如果說美國想透過降息來減少利息支出，這聽起來不合理，因為它是固定利率。\n政府幾乎每年都有需要額外資金的時刻，因此會發行債券。\n是希望利率低的時候發行，還是利率高的時候發行？\n當然希望利率低的時候發行，因為如果我在低利率時發行，這支債券在未來20年支付的利息率就會較低。\n對美國政府來說，這批債券的利息支出會減少，所以當然希望基準利率下降。\n因為當基準利率下降，且利差不會太高時，債券收益率也會跟隨下降。\n假設今年基準利率降低3%，收益率大約在3.5%。\n那麼今年發行的任何債券，無論期限長短，都只支付這個低利率，成本難道不會降低嗎？\n因此，對美國而言，收益率的水平確實有影響。\n第二個問題。\n例如，如果我發行100萬美元的債券，到期時償還的還是100萬美元。\n它不會因為美元匯率而改變。\n那為什麼你會說川普想讓美元貶值，以便償還更少的錢？\n人們對貨幣的概念有一點誤解。\n過去，我們使用物物交換。\n我種蘿蔔，你養豬，我們用蘿蔔換一些豬肉。\n如果某天發生乾旱，農民什麼都種不出來，蔬菜就會變貴。\n我可能能用那一個蘿蔔換到一整磅的豬肉。\n因為這樣太麻煩，且缺乏公平的价值比較標準，人類最終發明了貨幣來取代商品價值。\n例如，在中國大陸，如果你用100人民幣兌換，可能買到10斤豬肉。\n後來，當人民幣升值時，同樣的100人民幣可能買到20斤豬肉。\n實際上，貨幣本身沒有真正的意義。\n它的真正意義在於它能持有多少價值。\n今天，我發行債券向你借了100萬美元。\n除了利息，我必須在10年後償還100萬美元。\n還是100萬美元，所以你可能會覺得沒有差別。\n然而，如果那100萬美元現在能買一輛超級跑車，但10年後，由於美元貶值，我可能需要200萬美元才能買到同樣的車。\n難道不是你吃虧了嗎？\n這是美國想要的嗎？\n他們當然想要。\n他們在美元高的時候借錢，在美元低的時候還錢。\n現在美國債務實在太高，貶值美元是減負最快的方法。\n日本是世界上持有美國債務最多的國家。\n假設匯率是1美元兌160日元，然後美元貶值50%，使得1美元只值80日元。\n如果我持有1萬億美元，轉換成日元意味著我損失了一半的價值。\n你認為美國希望美元貶值嗎？\n他們非常希望。\nDoes everyone understand now?\nIf you still don't understand, I'll try to explain it even more simply next time.\nAlright?",
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      "text": "有學生曾問，既然美國債券收益率是固定利率，那麼升息或降息其實不會影響美國債務。",
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      "text_original": " A student once said that since U.S. bond yields are at a fixed rate, interest rate hikes or cuts shouldn't actually affect U.S. debt.",
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      "text": "例如，當時利率是3.8%，你發行100萬美元的債券，未來20年每年支付的都是這3.8%，無論利率如何升降。",
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      "text_original": " For example, if the rate at the time is 3.8% and you issue a bond for $1 million, you pay that same 3.8% every year for 20 years, regardless of how much rates rise or fall.",
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      "text": "到期時，你只需償還本金100萬美元給債權人。",
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      "text": "所以學生問，如果說美國想透過降息來減少利息支出，這聽起來不合理，因為它是固定利率。",
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      "text": "政府幾乎每年都有需要額外資金的時刻，因此會發行債券。",
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      "text": "是希望利率低的時候發行，還是利率高的時候發行？",
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      "text_original": " Does it want to issue them when interest rates are low, or when they are high?",
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      "text": "當然希望利率低的時候發行，因為如果我在低利率時發行，這支債券在未來20年支付的利息率就會較低。",
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      "text": "對美國政府來說，這批債券的利息支出會減少，所以當然希望基準利率下降。",
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      "text": "因為當基準利率下降，且利差不會太高時，債券收益率也會跟隨下降。",
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      "text": "假設今年基準利率降低3%，收益率大約在3.5%。",
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      "text_original": " Suppose we lower the base rate by 3% this year and the yield is around 3.5%.",
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      "text": "那麼今年發行的任何債券，無論期限長短，都只支付這個低利率，成本難道不會降低嗎？",
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      "text_original": " Then any bond I issue this year, regardless of its term, only pays that low rate, so wouldn't the cost decrease?",
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      "text": "因此，對美國而言，收益率的水平確實有影響。",
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      "text_original": " Therefore, for the U.S., the level of yield certainly makes a difference.",
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      "text": "第二個問題。",
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      "text_original": " Second question.",
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      "text": "例如，如果我發行100萬美元的債券，到期時償還的還是100萬美元。",
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      "text_original": " For example, if I issue a $1 million bond, it's still $1 million when it matures.",
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      "text": "它不會因為美元匯率而改變。",
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      "text_original": " It doesn't change based on the USD exchange rate.",
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      "text": "那為什麼你會說川普想讓美元貶值，以便償還更少的錢？",
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      "text_original": " So why would you say Trump wants a weaker dollar to pay back less money?",
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      "text": "人們對貨幣的概念有一點誤解。",
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      "text_original": " People have a slight misunderstanding regarding the concept of currency.",
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      "text": "過去，我們使用物物交換。",
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      "text_original": " In the past, we used barter.",
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      "text": "然而，如果那100萬美元現在能買一輛超級跑車，但10年後，由於美元貶值，我可能需要200萬美元才能買到同樣的車。",
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      "text": "難道不是你吃虧了嗎？",
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      "text": "如果我持有1萬億美元，轉換成日元意味著我損失了一半的價值。",
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      "text": "你認為美國希望美元貶值嗎？",
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      "text": "他們非常希望。",
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      "text": " Does everyone understand now?",
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      "text": " If you still don't understand, I'll try to explain it even more simply next time.",
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      "text": " Alright?",
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