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大家好,今天是2026年8月11号星期二,现在美股已经收盘了

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那么今天我们讲一期关于巴菲特的议题

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巴菲特大家知道,它这个公司的现金

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大概是3970亿美元,创历史新高

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但是这个季度实际上已经下降了8%

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也就是说它开始买股票了

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那么它主要的持仓就是买了这个Google

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那么为什么买Google

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还买了一些其他什么股票

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我们等会儿要给大家讲

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那么讲这个之前

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我们先看一下目前收盘大盘的情况

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目前这个大盘

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你从Finst要看是一个高开低走

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所以接着收盘的道雄是下跌0.30%

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纳斯达克下跌0.6%

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标普500下跌0.32%

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尽管这三大指数都是下跌的

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但是你看涨跌分布

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这个上涨的股票数

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实际上是多于这个下跌的股票数

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这都很重要的一个原因

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我想是因为费半指数

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是今天上涨的

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我们等会儿要看

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那么今天领涨的板块

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排在第一位的是跟油漆相关的

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我相信这个应该是跟中东

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和我们是海峡所关联的

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另外排在第二位的是博彩

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排在第三页的就是材料女

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排在第四位的是抵押贷款金融

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我们就得看一下

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这个废版

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大家看废版最近

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就像我前几天给大家讲的

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它基本上是为这个季线

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跟这个20点线之间

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在震荡

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方向不是很明确

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所以震荡的这种行情

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是非常难做的

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就是说你稍微选股

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不对

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你可能就会亏钱

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我们看标普500

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标普500还在历史高位附近

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你这个历史高位非常的近

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所以标普500是非常抗跌的

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我们看一下道指

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那么道指是不是已经开始下跌了

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你看一下他最近几天

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每一天这个重心都在往下移

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所以目前我们再看一下

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这个NASDAQ更关键

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现在就是说

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他已经连续一二三四五天

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都没有破这个前期的高点

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所以现在这个纳子

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跟这个肺板

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这两个指数目前都取比较关键的位置

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方向不明确

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这就是为什么这个市场非常非常难做现在

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因为多空双方市场争夺的非常激烈

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所以比较好的这个

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应该是应该保持观望现在

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就是你不要轻易买那股票

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因为你不知道这个市场到底选择是往上还是往下

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尤其跟科技板块相关的股票

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像费半

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然后纳斯达开中指数

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目前方向都不明

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好了我们回到刚刚的议题

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就是说巴菲特这个议题

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那么我们看一下

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大概有3.5年的时间

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基本上是绝对静止的

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也就是说

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他所在那个公司

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伯克希尔

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实际上连续14个季度

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都是卖出股票的

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他曾经最高的

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这个现金储备

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来到了3974亿美元

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然而

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这个第二季的财报

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他这个风向

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已经开始卷变了

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那么二季的

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十黄区三大的比较反常的信号

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第一个

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只卖不买的这个中介

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也就是说

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K2买入了235亿美元

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卖出了37亿美元

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所以K2实际上

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实际近买入大概200亿美元

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另外

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主角

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实际上是Google

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已经升为第五大重仓股

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大概占比8.7%

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那么到的现金水位

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第一次开始回落

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也就是下降了8%

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那么我们看一下

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在交易的一些细节

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就是说

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你比如说Alphabet

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就是Google宣布

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800亿美元的股权融资

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我前两天有一期视频

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专门讲过这个议题

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那么巴菲特的公司

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伯克希尔实际上

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以私募的形式独占100亿美元

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它的仓位230亿美元左右

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所以95岁的巴菲特向CNBC确认

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他亲自发起了这个投资

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而且他承认早年错过谷歌

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是犯了一个错

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我们看一下

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我们剖析一下

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阿贝尔

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也就是

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也就是目前这个

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博克学的这个掌门人

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实际上是巴弗特的

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这个继承人吧

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继任者

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那么到底底层逻辑

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就是说是压具确定性的底盘

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所以

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所以到实际上是买的这个

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阿贝尔也是Google

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那么

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二

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阿贝尔他认为就是说

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Google是AI时代电网与收费站

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也就是所谓的AI基础设施infrastructure

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那么他同时也收购了一家公司

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也就是Tiler Morrison

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他实际上是以68亿美元现金收购了

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大概如果我没有记错的话

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大概是以美股72块4毛5

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收购了这家公司

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那么我们看一下

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很有意思我们回归一下

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就是说跨越17年的隐喻

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它买的不是烟花

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是收费战

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你比如说2019年

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当时巴菲特的选择

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它金融危机以后

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下重数买入美国经济的

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无理运输底座

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也就是BNSF铁路

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那么2026年就是现在

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阿贝尔的选择

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也就是巴菲特的继任者

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他选择了这个Google

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也就是买入售字时代的底层电网

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那么无理事件的锚点

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对冲虚拟压入结构性的短缺

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目前就是说

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为什么他收购这个Tainemore上

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目前美国住房缺口大概是400万套

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每年新增家庭数量持续高于

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新开工数量缺口不断的积累

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所以伯克希尔也就是

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他这个巴弗特这家公司

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以668亿美元现金

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全款这个收购

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聚在建筑商

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这个Tain & More上

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就像我刚刚说的

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大概是以美股72块4毛5收购了

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溢价他是24%

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这个交易已经在7月24号

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已经完成交割了

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所以我们看一下

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这两个时代

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也就是巴菲特时代

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跟这个阿贝尔时代

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有什么不一样

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我们从第一个就是

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偏好商业模式

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那么巴菲特时代

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实际上是重视这种

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轻资产的运作

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阿贝尔时代是

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重视这种重资产

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基础是什么逻辑

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那么第二个

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第二个围的就是

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资本支出的特点

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巴菲特时代就无需持续的投钱

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即可以源源不断的产生现金流

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而阿伯特时代倒是持续的重金投入

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以此诸起极高的壁垒

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那么第三个维度就是

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护城河的构建方式

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巴菲特时代是品牌溢价

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与消费者心智垄断

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那么阿伯尔时代是无理通道

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或者是算力通道的绝对垄断

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第四个维度

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就是最新代表性的操作

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你比如说巴菲时代

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它已经开始大幅减持学富容

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清仓Visa

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Maskart

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而阿伯尔时代

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重仓Google

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全职收购Tainan Mall

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这个建筑商

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那么宏观的这个冰水

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虽然说他花了大概200多亿

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买那个Google

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收购那家公司

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而且到目前现金水位

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仍然趋于历史低高位

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所以到目前这个股票

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就买这个股票的仓位

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仅仅占总资产的

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就是说四成左右

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它的股票仓位吧

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大概远低于这个历史高位

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而这一次200亿的进买入

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仅占这个现金的5%都不到

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所以说它驱使的这个方向

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实际上是高度的集中

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仅限于这个AI基建建筑业

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但另外还有大概50亿美元

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是回过它自家的股票

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所以从这个方面来讲

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这个并没有全面扩散扫户的迹象

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所以这也就打破了

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我们今天要给大家强调的就是说

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尽管大的现均随位已经下降了

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但是实际上打破了散户

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已流逝全面启动了幻想

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所以这也从另外一个方面说明

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00:10:57,245 --> 00:10:58,625
这种顶级的机构

246
00:10:58,625 --> 00:11:04,065
非常极度的这种风险克制

247
00:11:04,065 --> 00:11:07,125
在我们看的就是说

248
00:11:07,125 --> 00:11:07,925
你200多亿

249
00:11:07,925 --> 00:11:09,765
这个现金是非常多

250
00:11:09,765 --> 00:11:13,985
但是你看到整个现金的部位

251
00:11:13,985 --> 00:11:15,565
还是非常非常高

252
00:11:15,565 --> 00:11:20,565
所以我们说给大家一个建议

253
00:11:20,565 --> 00:11:21,645
给大家一个提醒

254
00:11:21,645 --> 00:11:24,365
就是说我们可以学Buffet

255
00:11:24,365 --> 00:11:28,305
但是最好是学到那个风控

256
00:11:28,305 --> 00:11:30,025
学到那个纪律

257
00:11:30,025 --> 00:11:31,865
不要学到代码

258
00:11:31,865 --> 00:11:33,505
也就是我们说的第一点

259
00:11:33,505 --> 00:11:35,645
别盲目的抄代码

260
00:11:35,645 --> 00:11:38,005
因为这里头实际上存在一种

261
00:11:38,005 --> 00:11:39,845
资金性质的错配

262
00:11:39,845 --> 00:11:42,765
那么伯克系又使用的是

263
00:11:42,765 --> 00:11:45,005
保险浮沉金

264
00:11:45,005 --> 00:11:46,165
也就是说

265
00:11:46,165 --> 00:11:48,765
它酒期长达几十年

266
00:11:48,765 --> 00:11:51,705
这种公司它等得起

267
00:11:51,705 --> 00:11:54,625
而我们普通的一些赏户

268
00:11:54,625 --> 00:11:55,665
使用的是

269
00:11:55,665 --> 00:11:57,545
短期流动性资金

270
00:11:57,545 --> 00:11:59,325
那么同样的标的

271
00:11:59,325 --> 00:12:02,085
不同的资金的期限

272
00:12:02,085 --> 00:12:04,085
那么这种体验完全不同

273
00:12:04,085 --> 00:12:07,405
那么第二点我们要注意的

274
00:12:07,405 --> 00:12:09,725
就是坚守安全编辑

275
00:12:09,725 --> 00:12:13,105
也就是我们熟称的这个保命哲学

276
00:12:13,105 --> 00:12:16,505
那么博客信买的是被市场怀疑过

277
00:12:16,505 --> 00:12:19,425
估值取于低位的确定性

278
00:12:19,425 --> 00:12:22,905
那么绝不在最贵的时候

279
00:12:22,905 --> 00:12:25,805
加杠杆追这最热的故事

280
00:12:25,805 --> 00:12:29,045
那么第三点就是

281
00:12:29,045 --> 00:12:31,085
理性分离两本账

282
00:12:31,085 --> 00:12:34,525
也就是信号的隔离

283
00:12:34,525 --> 00:12:36,745
那么七月份实际上

284
00:12:36,745 --> 00:12:38,245
巴菲特还有一个动作

285
00:12:38,245 --> 00:12:41,725
他捐赠了60亿美元的股票

286
00:12:41,725 --> 00:12:47,945
是其个人词上的一个账本

287
00:12:47,945 --> 00:12:49,965
而阿伯尔买越的

288
00:12:49,965 --> 00:12:51,125
Alphabet Google

289
00:12:51,125 --> 00:12:53,865
是资本配置账本

290
00:12:53,865 --> 00:12:56,625
所以不要把他个人的

291
00:12:56,625 --> 00:12:58,185
这个事物

292
00:12:58,185 --> 00:13:01,605
与机构的这种战略的信号混为一谈

293
00:13:01,605 --> 00:13:06,125
那么最后我们要送给大家的

294
00:13:06,125 --> 00:13:08,845
当全球最保守的资本

295
00:13:08,845 --> 00:13:12,405
也就是巴菲特这家公司

296
00:13:12,405 --> 00:13:14,365
开始挥干

297
00:13:14,365 --> 00:13:16,845
风向已经敲碗改变

298
00:13:16,845 --> 00:13:19,545
但是请记住

299
00:13:19,545 --> 00:13:21,625
他们绝大部分的弹药

300
00:13:21,625 --> 00:13:25,185
依然躺在那个膛里面

301
00:13:25,185 --> 00:13:25,905
也就是说

302
00:13:25,905 --> 00:13:28,585
他目前尽管买了200亿美元的

303
00:13:28,585 --> 00:13:30,525
超过200亿美元的股票

304
00:13:30,525 --> 00:13:32,745
但实际上大部分现金

305
00:13:32,745 --> 00:13:34,725
还在手里面没有动

306
00:13:34,725 --> 00:13:35,965
好了

307
00:13:35,965 --> 00:13:38,005
今天我们这个视频就到这里

308
00:13:38,005 --> 00:13:39,205
明天交易训理

309
00:13:39,205 --> 00:13:39,565
拜拜