{
  "text": "大家好,今天是2026年8月11号星期二,现在美股已经收盘了\n那么今天我们讲一期关于巴菲特的议题\n巴菲特大家知道,它这个公司的现金\n大概是3970亿美元,创历史新高\n但是这个季度实际上已经下降了8%\n也就是说它开始买股票了\n那么它主要的持仓就是买了这个Google\n那么为什么买Google\n还买了一些其他什么股票\n我们等会儿要给大家讲\n那么讲这个之前\n我们先看一下目前收盘大盘的情况\n目前这个大盘\n你从Finst要看是一个高开低走\n所以接着收盘的道琼斯是下跌0.30%\n纳斯达克下跌0.6%\n标普500下跌0.32%\n尽管这三大指数都是下跌的\n但是你看涨跌分布\n这个上涨的股票数\n实际上是多于这个下跌的股票数\n这都很重要的一个原因\n我想是因为费城半导体指数\n是今天上涨的\n我们等会儿要看\n那么今天领涨的板块\n排在第一位的是跟油漆相关的\n我相信这个应该是跟中东\n和我们是海峡所关联的\n另外排在第二位的是博彩\n排在第三页的就是材料女\n排在第四位的是抵押贷款金融\n我们就得看一下\n这个费半\n大家看废版最近\n就像我前几天给大家讲的\n它基本上是为这个季线\n跟这个20点线之间\n在震荡\n方向不是很明确\n所以震荡的这种行情\n是非常难做的\n就是说你稍微选股\n不对\n你可能就会亏钱\n我们看标普500\n标普500还在历史高位附近\n你这个历史高位非常的近\n所以标普500是非常抗跌的\n我们看一下道指\n那么道指是不是已经开始下跌了\n你看一下他最近几天\n每一天这个重心都在往下移\n所以目前我们再看一下\n这个NASDAQ更关键\n现在就是说\n他已经连续一二三四五天\n都没有破这个前期的高点\n所以现在这个纳指\n跟这个标板\n这两个指数目前都取比较关键的位置\n方向不明确\n这就是为什么这个市场非常非常难做现在\n因为多空双方市场争夺的非常激烈\n所以比较好的这个\n应该是应该保持观望现在\n就是你不要轻易买那股票\n因为你不知道这个市场到底选择是往上还是往下\n尤其跟科技板块相关的股票\n像费半\n然后纳斯达克中指数\n目前方向都不明\n好了我们回到刚刚的议题\n就是说巴菲特这个议题\n那么我们看一下\n大概有3.5年的时间\n基本上是绝对静止的\n也就是说\n他所在那个公司\n伯克希尔\n实际上连续14个季度\n都是卖出股票的\n他曾经最高的\n这个现金储备\n来到了3974亿美元\n然而\n这个第二季的财报\n他这个风向\n已经开始卷变了\n那么二季的\n十大持仓三大比较反常的信号\n第一个\n只卖不买的这个中介\n也就是说\nQ2买入了235亿美元\n卖出了37亿美元\n所以Q2实际上\n实际净买入大概200亿美元\n另外\n主角\n实际上是Google\n已经升为第五大重仓股\n大概占比8.7%\n那么到手的现金水位\n第一次开始回落\n也就是下降了8%\n那么我们看一下\n在交易的一些细节\n就是说\n你比如说Alphabet\n就是Google宣布\n800亿美元的股权融资\n我前两天有一期视频\n专门讲过这个议题\n那么巴菲特的公司\n伯克希尔实际上\n以私募的形式独占100亿美元\n它的仓位230亿美元左右\n所以94岁的巴菲特向CNBC确认\n他亲自发起了这个投资\n而且他承认早年错过谷歌\n是犯了一个错\n我们看一下\n我们剖析一下\n阿贝尔\n也就是\n也就是目前这个\n博克希尔的这个掌门人\n实际上是巴菲特的\n这个继承人吧\n继任者\n那么到底底层逻辑\n就是说是押注确定性的底盘\n所以\n所以到实际上是买的这个\n阿贝尔也是Google\n那么\n二\n阿贝尔他认为就是说\nGoogle是AI时代电网与收费站\n也就是所谓的AI基础设施infrastructure\n那么他同时也收购了一家公司\n也就是Taylor Morrison\n他实际上是以68亿美元现金收购了\n大概如果我没有记错的话\n大概是以美股72块4毛5\n收购了这家公司\n那么我们看一下\n很有意思我们回归一下\n就是说跨越17年的隐喻\n它买的不是烟花\n是收费站\n你比如说2019年\n当时巴菲特的选择\n它金融危机以后\n下重注买入美国经济的\n物流运输底座\n也就是BNSF铁路\n那么2024年就是现在\n阿贝尔的选择\n也就是巴菲特的继任者\n他选择了这个Google\n也就是买入AI时代的底层电网\n那么无理事件的锚点\n对冲虚拟压入结构性的短缺\n目前就是说\n为什么他收购这个Taylor Morrison上\n目前美国住房缺口大概是400万套\n每年新增家庭数量持续高于\n新开工数量缺口不断的积累\n所以伯克希尔也就是\n他这个巴菲特这家公司\n以668亿美元现金\n全款这个收购\n聚在建筑商\n这个Taylor Morrison上\n就像我刚刚说的\n大概是以美股72块4毛5收购了\n溢价他是24%\n这个交易已经在7月24号\n已经完成交割了\n所以我们看一下\n这两个时代\n也就是巴菲特时代\n跟这个阿贝尔时代\n有什么不一样\n我们从第一个就是\n偏好商业模式\n那么巴菲特时代\n实际上是重视这种\n轻资产的运作\n阿贝尔时代是\n重视这种重资产\n基础是什么逻辑\n那么第二个\n第二个围的就是\n资本支出的特点\n巴菲特时代就无需持续的投钱\n即可以源源不断的产生现金流\n而阿伯特时代倒是持续的重金投入\n以此筑起极高的壁垒\n那么第三个维度就是\n护城河的构建方式\n巴菲特时代是品牌溢价\n与消费者心智垄断\n那么阿贝尔时代是数据通道\n或者是算力通道的绝对垄断\n第四个维度\n就是最新代表性的操作\n你比如说巴菲时代\n它已经开始大幅减持雪佛龙\n清仓Visa\n马斯克\n而阿伯尔时代\n重仓Google\n全资收购Taylor Morrison\n这个建筑商\n那么宏观的这个现金\n虽然说他花了大概200多亿\n买那个Google\n收购那家公司\n而且到目前现金水位\n仍然处于历史高位\n所以到目前这个股票\n就买这个股票的仓位\n仅仅占总资产的\n就是说四成左右\n它的股票仓位吧\n大概远低于这个历史高位\n而这一次200亿的买入\n仅占这个现金的5%都不到\n所以说它驱使的这个方向\n实际上是高度的集中\n仅限于这个AI基建建筑业\n但另外还有大概50亿美元\n是回购它自家的股票\n所以从这个方面来讲\n这个并没有全面扩散扫货的迹象\n所以这也就打破了\n我们今天要给大家强调的就是说\n尽管大的现金仓位已经下降了\n但是实际上打破了散户\n已全面启动了幻想\n所以这也从另外一个方面说明\n这种顶级的机构\n非常极度的这种风险克制\n在我们看的就是说\n你200多亿\n这个现金是非常多\n但是你看到整个现金的比重\n还是非常非常高\n所以我们说给大家一个建议\n给大家一个提醒\n就是说我们可以学巴菲特\n但是最好是学到那个风控\n学到那个纪律\n不要学到代码\n也就是我们说的第一点\n别盲目的抄代码\n因为这里头实际上存在一种\n资金性质的错配\n那么伯克系又使用的是\n保险浮存金\n也就是说\n它周期长达几十年\n这种公司它等得起\n而我们普通的一些散户\n使用的是\n短期流动性资金\n那么同样的标的\n不同的资金的期限\n那么这种体验完全不同\n那么第二点我们要注意的\n就是坚守安全边际\n也就是我们熟称的这个保命哲学\n那么伯克希尔买的是被市场怀疑过\n估值处于低位的确定性\n那么绝不在最贵的时候\n加杠杆追逐最热的故事\n那么第三点就是\n理性分离两本账\n也就是信号的隔离\n那么七月份实际上\n巴菲特还有一个动作\n他捐赠了60亿美元的股票\n是其个人账本上的一个账本\n而阿贝尔买入的\nAlphabet Google\n是资本配置账本\n所以不要把他个人的\n这个事物\n与机构的这种战略的信号混为一谈\n那么最后我们要送给大家的\n当全球最保守的资本\n也就是巴菲特这家公司\n开始挥金\n风向已经悄然改变\n但是请记住\n他们绝大部分的弹药\n依然躺在那个仓位里面\n也就是说\n他目前尽管买了200亿美元的\n超过200亿美元的股票\n但实际上大部分现金\n还在手里面没有动\n好了\n今天我们这个视频就到这里\n明天交易顺利\n拜拜",
  "language": null,
  "duration": 820.709313,
  "segments": [
    {
      "start": 0.76,
      "end": 5.38,
      "text": "大家好,今天是2026年8月11号星期二,现在美股已经收盘了",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2583854570301301,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7881208666525872e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.1882845188284519,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 5.64,
      "end": 9.48,
      "text": "那么今天我们讲一期关于巴菲特的议题",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2583854570301301,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7881208666525872e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.1882845188284519,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 9.98,
      "end": 15.1,
      "text": "巴菲特大家知道,它这个公司的现金",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2583854570301301,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7881208666525872e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.1882845188284519,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 15.62,
      "end": 18.94,
      "text": "大概是3970亿美元,创历史新高",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2583854570301301,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7881208666525872e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.1882845188284519,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 19.2,
      "end": 23.56,
      "text": "但是这个季度实际上已经下降了8%",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2583854570301301,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7881208666525872e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.1882845188284519,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 24.32,
      "end": 26.12,
      "text": "也就是说它开始买股票了",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.2583854570301301,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.7881208666525872e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.1882845188284519,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 26.12,
      "end": 30.12,
      "text": "那么它主要的持仓就是买了这个Google",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 30.12,
      "end": 32.52,
      "text": "那么为什么买Google",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 32.52,
      "end": 35.72,
      "text": "还买了一些其他什么股票",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 35.72,
      "end": 37.72,
      "text": "我们等会儿要给大家讲",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 37.72,
      "end": 39.52,
      "text": "那么讲这个之前",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 39.52,
      "end": 42.52,
      "text": "我们先看一下目前收盘大盘的情况",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 42.52,
      "end": 43.92,
      "text": "目前这个大盘",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 43.92,
      "end": 46.32,
      "text": "你从Finst要看是一个高开低走",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 46.32,
      "end": 49.92,
      "text": "所以接着收盘的道琼斯是下跌0.30%",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "所以接着收盘的道雄是下跌0.30%",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 49.92,
      "end": 53.12,
      "text": "纳斯达克下跌0.6%",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.30710692632765996,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.5379588227948382e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2749003984063745,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 53.12,
      "end": 56.56,
      "text": "标普500下跌0.32%",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 56.56,
      "end": 60.64,
      "text": "尽管这三大指数都是下跌的",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 60.64,
      "end": 62.32,
      "text": "但是你看涨跌分布",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 62.32,
      "end": 63.9,
      "text": "这个上涨的股票数",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 63.9,
      "end": 66.78,
      "text": "实际上是多于这个下跌的股票数",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 66.78,
      "end": 68.92,
      "text": "这都很重要的一个原因",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 68.92,
      "end": 71.04,
      "text": "我想是因为费城半导体指数",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "我想是因为费半指数",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 71.04,
      "end": 72.06,
      "text": "是今天上涨的",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 72.06,
      "end": 72.84,
      "text": "我们等会儿要看",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 72.84,
      "end": 76.16,
      "text": "那么今天领涨的板块",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 76.16,
      "end": 78.76,
      "text": "排在第一位的是跟油漆相关的",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 78.76,
      "end": 81.72,
      "text": "我相信这个应该是跟中东",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1728344644818987,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4851925245196185e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3585657370517927,
      "source": "whisper"
    },
    {
      "start": 81.72,
      "end": 83.92,
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      "start": 83.92,
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      "text": "另外排在第二位的是博彩",
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      "start": 86.52,
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      "text": "排在第三页的就是材料女",
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      "text": "排在第四位的是抵押贷款金融",
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      "start": 94.44,
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      "text": "我们就得看一下",
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      "start": 97.8,
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      "text": "这个费半",
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      "text_original": "这个废版",
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      "text": "大家看废版最近",
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      "start": 102.28,
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      "text": "就像我前几天给大家讲的",
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      "start": 104.34,
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      "text": "它基本上是为这个季线",
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      "start": 107.28,
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      "text": "跟这个20点线之间",
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      "start": 112.02,
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      "text": "在震荡",
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      "start": 112.86,
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      "text": "方向不是很明确",
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      "start": 114.96,
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      "text": "所以震荡的这种行情",
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      "start": 118.16,
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      "text": "是非常难做的",
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      "start": 119.72,
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      "text": "就是说你稍微选股",
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      "start": 123.0,
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      "text": "不对",
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      "start": 124.44,
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      "text": "你可能就会亏钱",
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      "start": 126.28,
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      "text": "我们看标普500",
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      "start": 129.1,
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      "text": "标普500还在历史高位附近",
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      "text": "你这个历史高位非常的近",
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      "start": 134.18,
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      "text": "这个NASDAQ更关键",
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      "start": 157.48,
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      "start": 158.24,
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      "text": "他已经连续一二三四五天",
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      "start": 161.48,
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      "text_original": "所以现在这个纳子",
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      "text": "跟这个标板",
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      "text_original": "跟这个肺板",
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      "text": "这两个指数目前都取比较关键的位置",
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      "text": "这就是为什么这个市场非常非常难做现在",
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      "text": "因为多空双方市场争夺的非常激烈",
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      "text": "所以比较好的这个",
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      "start": 185.3,
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      "text": "应该是应该保持观望现在",
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      "text": "就是你不要轻易买那股票",
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      "text": "因为你不知道这个市场到底选择是往上还是往下",
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      "start": 197.56,
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      "text": "尤其跟科技板块相关的股票",
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      "start": 200.44,
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      "text": "像费半",
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      "start": 202.1,
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      "text": "然后纳斯达克中指数",
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      "text_original": "然后纳斯达开中指数",
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      "text": "目前方向都不明",
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      "start": 205.86,
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      "text": "好了我们回到刚刚的议题",
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      "start": 212.5,
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      "text": "大概有3.5年的时间",
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      "start": 215.62,
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      "text": "基本上是绝对静止的",
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      "start": 218.66,
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      "text": "他所在那个公司",
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      "start": 220.4,
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      "text": "伯克希尔",
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      "start": 221.48,
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      "text": "实际上连续14个季度",
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      "start": 224.16,
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      "text": "都是卖出股票的",
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      "start": 226.84,
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      "text": "他曾经最高的",
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      "start": 230.7,
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      "text": "这个现金储备",
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      "start": 232.62,
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      "text": "来到了3974亿美元",
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      "text": "这个第二季的财报",
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    {
      "start": 239.0,
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      "text": "他这个风向",
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      "start": 241.22,
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      "text": "已经开始卷变了",
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      "start": 242.72,
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      "text": "那么二季的",
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    {
      "start": 245.32,
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      "text": "十大持仓三大比较反常的信号",
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      "text_original": "十黄区三大的比较反常的信号",
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      "start": 247.88,
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      "text": "第一个",
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    {
      "start": 248.36,
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      "text": "只卖不买的这个中介",
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      "start": 251.22,
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      "text": "也就是说",
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    {
      "start": 252.98,
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      "text": "Q2买入了235亿美元",
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      "text_original": "K2买入了235亿美元",
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      "start": 258.34,
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      "text": "卖出了37亿美元",
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    {
      "start": 260.92,
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      "text": "所以Q2实际上",
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      "text_original": "所以K2实际上",
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      "start": 263.62,
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      "text": "实际净买入大概200亿美元",
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      "text_original": "实际近买入大概200亿美元",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 265.82,
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      "text": "另外",
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    {
      "start": 267.24,
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      "text": "主角",
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      "start": 269.08,
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      "text": "实际上是Google",
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    {
      "start": 271.3,
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      "text": "已经升为第五大重仓股",
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      "start": 274.76,
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      "text": "大概占比8.7%",
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      "start": 278.48,
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      "text": "那么到手的现金水位",
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      "text_original": "那么到的现金水位",
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      "start": 281.5,
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      "text": "第一次开始回落",
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      "start": 284.26,
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      "text": "也就是下降了8%",
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      "start": 286.62,
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      "text": "那么我们看一下",
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    {
      "start": 290.42,
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      "text": "在交易的一些细节",
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      "text": "就是说",
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      "start": 294.22,
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      "text": "你比如说Alphabet",
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      "text": "就是Google宣布",
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    {
      "start": 299.8,
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      "text": "800亿美元的股权融资",
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    {
      "start": 302.12,
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      "text": "我前两天有一期视频",
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    {
      "start": 303.58,
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      "text": "专门讲过这个议题",
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    {
      "start": 304.7,
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      "text": "那么巴菲特的公司",
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    {
      "start": 307.92,
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      "text": "伯克希尔实际上",
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    {
      "start": 309.5,
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      "text": "以私募的形式独占100亿美元",
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    {
      "start": 312.38,
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      "text": "它的仓位230亿美元左右",
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      "start": 317.18,
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      "text": "所以94岁的巴菲特向CNBC确认",
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      "text_original": "所以95岁的巴菲特向CNBC确认",
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      "start": 323.64,
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      "text": "他亲自发起了这个投资",
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    {
      "start": 326.22,
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      "text": "而且他承认早年错过谷歌",
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      "start": 330.42,
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      "text": "是犯了一个错",
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    {
      "start": 331.9,
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      "text": "我们看一下",
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    {
      "start": 335.8,
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      "start": 338.86,
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      "text": "阿贝尔",
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      "start": 340.18,
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      "text": "也就是",
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      "start": 340.9,
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      "text": "也就是目前这个",
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    {
      "start": 342.72,
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      "text": "博克希尔的这个掌门人",
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      "text_original": "博克学的这个掌门人",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 344.66,
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      "text": "实际上是巴菲特的",
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      "text_original": "实际上是巴弗特的",
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      "start": 345.98,
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      "text": "这个继承人吧",
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      "start": 347.88,
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      "text": "继任者",
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      "start": 349.9,
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      "text": "那么到底底层逻辑",
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      "start": 351.56,
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      "text": "就是说是押注确定性的底盘",
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      "text_original": "就是说是压具确定性的底盘",
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      "start": 354.12,
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      "text": "所以",
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      "start": 355.72,
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      "text": "所以到实际上是买的这个",
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      "start": 357.64,
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      "text": "阿贝尔也是Google",
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      "start": 360.96,
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      "text": "二",
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      "start": 362.32,
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      "text": "阿贝尔他认为就是说",
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      "start": 364.72,
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      "text": "Google是AI时代电网与收费站",
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      "start": 369.0,
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      "text": "也就是所谓的AI基础设施infrastructure",
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      "text": "那么他同时也收购了一家公司",
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      "text": "也就是Taylor Morrison",
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      "text_original": "也就是Tiler Morrison",
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      "text": "他实际上是以68亿美元现金收购了",
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      "start": 384.64,
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      "text": "大概如果我没有记错的话",
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    {
      "start": 386.8,
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      "text": "大概是以美股72块4毛5",
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      "start": 391.06,
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      "text": "收购了这家公司",
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      "start": 392.5,
      "end": 396.38,
      "text": "那么我们看一下",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0017046220278658e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 396.38,
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      "text": "很有意思我们回归一下",
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      "start": 398.16,
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      "text": "就是说跨越17年的隐喻",
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      "start": 401.78,
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      "text": "它买的不是烟花",
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      "start": 404.18,
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      "text": "是收费站",
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      "text_original": "是收费战",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 405.28,
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      "text": "你比如说2019年",
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      "start": 407.1,
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      "text": "当时巴菲特的选择",
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      "start": 409.42,
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      "text": "它金融危机以后",
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    {
      "start": 411.48,
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      "text": "下重注买入美国经济的",
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      "text_original": "下重数买入美国经济的",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 415.1,
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      "text": "物流运输底座",
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      "text_original": "无理运输底座",
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      "start": 416.44,
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      "text": "也就是BNSF铁路",
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      "start": 418.52,
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      "text": "那么2024年就是现在",
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      "text_original": "那么2026年就是现在",
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      "start": 422.4,
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      "text": "阿贝尔的选择",
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      "start": 424.38,
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      "text": "也就是巴菲特的继任者",
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      "start": 426.5,
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      "text": "他选择了这个Google",
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      "start": 430.02,
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      "text": "也就是买入AI时代的底层电网",
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      "text_original": "也就是买入售字时代的底层电网",
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      "text": "那么无理事件的锚点",
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    {
      "start": 438.92,
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      "text": "对冲虚拟压入结构性的短缺",
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      "start": 443.58,
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      "text": "目前就是说",
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      "start": 446.66,
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      "text": "为什么他收购这个Taylor Morrison上",
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      "text_original": "为什么他收购这个Tainemore上",
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      "start": 449.8,
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      "text": "目前美国住房缺口大概是400万套",
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    {
      "start": 453.94,
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      "text": "每年新增家庭数量持续高于",
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      "start": 458.56,
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      "text": "新开工数量缺口不断的积累",
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      "start": 461.74,
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      "text": "所以伯克希尔也就是",
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      "start": 465.04,
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      "text": "他这个巴菲特这家公司",
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      "text_original": "他这个巴弗特这家公司",
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      "start": 467.16,
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      "text": "以668亿美元现金",
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      "start": 470.28,
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      "text": "全款这个收购",
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      "start": 472.04,
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      "text": "聚在建筑商",
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      "start": 473.64,
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      "text": "这个Taylor Morrison上",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "这个Tain & More上",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 477.005,
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      "text": "就像我刚刚说的",
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      "text": "大概是以美股72块4毛5收购了",
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      "start": 483.005,
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      "text": "溢价他是24%",
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      "start": 486.005,
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      "text": "这个交易已经在7月24号",
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      "start": 488.765,
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      "text": "已经完成交割了",
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      "start": 490.205,
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      "text": "所以我们看一下",
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      "start": 494.325,
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      "text": "这两个时代",
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      "text": "也就是巴菲特时代",
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      "start": 498.845,
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      "start": 499.905,
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      "text": "我们从第一个就是",
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      "start": 502.325,
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      "text": "偏好商业模式",
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      "text": "那么巴菲特时代",
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      "start": 507.665,
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      "text": "实际上是重视这种",
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      "start": 509.025,
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      "text": "轻资产的运作",
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      "start": 510.365,
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      "text": "阿贝尔时代是",
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    {
      "start": 512.345,
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      "text": "重视这种重资产",
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      "start": 514.085,
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      "text": "基础是什么逻辑",
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      "start": 516.185,
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      "text": "那么第二个",
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      "start": 518.465,
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      "text": "第二个围的就是",
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    {
      "start": 519.485,
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      "text": "资本支出的特点",
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      "start": 521.385,
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      "text": "巴菲特时代就无需持续的投钱",
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    {
      "start": 525.545,
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      "text": "即可以源源不断的产生现金流",
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      "start": 528.025,
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      "text": "而阿伯特时代倒是持续的重金投入",
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    {
      "start": 532.985,
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      "text": "以此筑起极高的壁垒",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "以此诸起极高的壁垒",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 536.765,
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      "text": "那么第三个维度就是",
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    {
      "start": 539.605,
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      "text": "护城河的构建方式",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 542.465,
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      "text": "巴菲特时代是品牌溢价",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.5201844991152846e-11,
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    {
      "start": 545.945,
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      "text": "与消费者心智垄断",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.5201844991152846e-11,
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    {
      "start": 547.925,
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      "text": "那么阿贝尔时代是数据通道",
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      "text_original": "那么阿伯尔时代是无理通道",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 550.765,
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      "text": "或者是算力通道的绝对垄断",
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    {
      "start": 553.165,
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      "text": "第四个维度",
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      "start": 555.905,
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      "text": "就是最新代表性的操作",
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      "start": 558.345,
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      "text": "你比如说巴菲时代",
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    {
      "start": 559.985,
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      "text": "它已经开始大幅减持雪佛龙",
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      "text_original": "它已经开始大幅减持学富容",
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    {
      "start": 562.265,
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      "text": "清仓Visa",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 563.865,
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      "text": "马斯克",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "Maskart",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
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      "start": 565.005,
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      "text": "而阿伯尔时代",
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      "start": 566.945,
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      "text": "重仓Google",
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    {
      "start": 568.365,
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      "text": "全资收购Taylor Morrison",
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      "text_original": "全职收购Tainan Mall",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "text": "这个建筑商",
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      "start": 571.945,
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      "text": "那么宏观的这个现金",
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      "text_original": "那么宏观的这个冰水",
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      "start": 577.625,
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      "text": "虽然说他花了大概200多亿",
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      "text": "买那个Google",
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      "start": 586.825,
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      "text": "收购那家公司",
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    {
      "start": 588.445,
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      "text": "而且到目前现金水位",
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    {
      "start": 590.745,
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      "text": "仍然处于历史高位",
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      "text_original": "仍然趋于历史低高位",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 593.625,
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      "text": "所以到目前这个股票",
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      "start": 598.045,
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      "text": "就买这个股票的仓位",
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      "start": 599.565,
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      "text": "仅仅占总资产的",
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    {
      "start": 602.225,
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      "text": "就是说四成左右",
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    {
      "start": 605.845,
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      "text": "它的股票仓位吧",
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    {
      "start": 607.805,
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      "text": "大概远低于这个历史高位",
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    {
      "start": 610.665,
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      "text": "而这一次200亿的买入",
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      "text_original": "而这一次200亿的进买入",
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      "start": 613.185,
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      "text": "仅占这个现金的5%都不到",
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    {
      "start": 615.925,
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      "text": "所以说它驱使的这个方向",
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    {
      "start": 619.825,
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      "text": "实际上是高度的集中",
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    {
      "start": 621.685,
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      "text": "仅限于这个AI基建建筑业",
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      "start": 625.825,
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      "text": "但另外还有大概50亿美元",
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    {
      "start": 628.345,
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      "text": "是回购它自家的股票",
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      "text_original": "是回过它自家的股票",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 630.785,
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      "text": "所以从这个方面来讲",
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    {
      "start": 633.005,
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      "text": "这个并没有全面扩散扫货的迹象",
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      "text_original": "这个并没有全面扩散扫户的迹象",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 637.825,
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      "text": "所以这也就打破了",
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    {
      "start": 640.725,
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      "text": "我们今天要给大家强调的就是说",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0788423973617789e-11,
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    {
      "start": 642.785,
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      "text": "尽管大的现金仓位已经下降了",
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      "text_original": "尽管大的现均随位已经下降了",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 647.045,
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      "text": "但是实际上打破了散户",
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    {
      "start": 650.745,
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      "text": "已全面启动了幻想",
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      "text_original": "已流逝全面启动了幻想",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 653.925,
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      "text": "所以这也从另外一个方面说明",
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    {
      "start": 657.245,
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      "text": "这种顶级的机构",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0788423973617789e-11,
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    {
      "start": 658.625,
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      "text": "非常极度的这种风险克制",
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    {
      "start": 664.065,
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      "text": "在我们看的就是说",
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    {
      "start": 667.125,
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      "text": "你200多亿",
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    {
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      "text": "这个现金是非常多",
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    {
      "start": 669.765,
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      "text": "但是你看到整个现金的比重",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "但是你看到整个现金的部位",
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    {
      "start": 673.985,
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      "text": "还是非常非常高",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 675.565,
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      "text": "所以我们说给大家一个建议",
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    {
      "start": 680.565,
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      "text": "给大家一个提醒",
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    {
      "start": 681.645,
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      "text": "就是说我们可以学巴菲特",
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      "text_original": "就是说我们可以学Buffet",
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      "text": "但是最好是学到那个风控",
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      "text": "学到那个纪律",
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      "text": "不要学到代码",
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      "text": "也就是我们说的第一点",
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      "start": 693.505,
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      "text": "别盲目的抄代码",
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      "text": "因为这里头实际上存在一种",
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      "text": "资金性质的错配",
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      "text": "那么伯克系又使用的是",
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      "text": "保险浮存金",
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      "text_original": "保险浮沉金",
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      "text": "它周期长达几十年",
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      "text_original": "它酒期长达几十年",
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      "text": "这种公司它等得起",
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      "text": "而我们普通的一些散户",
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      "text_original": "而我们普通的一些赏户",
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      "text": "使用的是",
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      "text": "短期流动性资金",
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      "text": "那么同样的标的",
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      "text": "不同的资金的期限",
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      "text": "那么这种体验完全不同",
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      "text": "那么第二点我们要注意的",
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      "text": "就是坚守安全边际",
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      "text_original": "就是坚守安全编辑",
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      "text": "也就是我们熟称的这个保命哲学",
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      "text": "加杠杆追逐最热的故事",
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      "text_original": "加杠杆追这最热的故事",
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      "text": "他捐赠了60亿美元的股票",
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      "text": "而阿贝尔买入的",
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      "text_original": "而阿伯尔买越的",
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      "text": "Alphabet Google",
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      "text": "所以不要把他个人的",
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      "text": "与机构的这种战略的信号混为一谈",
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      "text": "也就是巴菲特这家公司",
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      "text": "开始挥金",
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      "text": "风向已经悄然改变",
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      "text_original": "风向已经敲碗改变",
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      "text": "但是请记住",
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      "text": "他们绝大部分的弹药",
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      "start": 801.625,
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      "text": "依然躺在那个仓位里面",
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      "text_original": "依然躺在那个膛里面",
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      "text": "他目前尽管买了200亿美元的",
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      "text": "但实际上大部分现金",
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      "text": "还在手里面没有动",
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      "text": "好了",
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      "text": "今天我们这个视频就到这里",
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      "text": "明天交易顺利",
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