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美國在8月10日撤掉了

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聯邦政府設備上的

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TikTok禁令

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這條新聞出來以後

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很多人的第一反應很直接

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美國退了

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TikTok扛住了

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中國這次算贏了

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可我把這件事前前後後

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重新看了一遍以後

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反而覺得

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如果最後只落到

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一個誰贏了

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其實有點可惜

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真正值得看的

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是TikTok最後

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既沒有整個賣給美國

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也沒有退出美國

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雙方最後談出來的辦法

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是把一家公司裡面

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原本綁在一起的東西拆開

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美國用戶的數據

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安全內容治理

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包括美國版

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推薦系統怎麼訓練

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怎麼更新

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由美國本地的體系負責

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但TikTok的廣告

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電商營銷

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還有和全球產品

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之間的連接

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並沒有一起被拿走

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字節跳動也沒有完全退出

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所以這件事真正出現的

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不是美國

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放過TikTok

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而是中美科技戰

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第一次比較清楚地

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出現了第三種結果

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公司不一定要整個賣掉

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但敏感權力

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可以單獨切出來

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交給當地管理

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過去大家以為

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只有兩個按鈕

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賣掉或者退出

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現在中間多了一條縫

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而這條縫如果以後

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還能複製到別的公司

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意義就遠遠超過

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TikTok本身

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先把現在的結構講清楚

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2026年1月

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TikTok美國業務

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新的合資安排正式落地

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字節跳動保留

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19.9%的股份

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甲骨文銀湖資本

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和阿聯酋投資機構等

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成為主要股東

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但老實講

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這件事如果只看股權

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很容易看錯

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因為真正重要的

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不是誰手裡有幾成股票

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而是誰能做甚麼

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新的美國合資公司負責

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美國用戶的數據保護

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內容安全

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軟件安全

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以及美國版

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推薦系統的訓練

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測試和更新

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甲骨文負責

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美國的數據環境

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也參與代碼檢查

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但是TikTok

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在美國的廣告

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電商營銷

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以及全球產品連接

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還是留在TikTok

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全球體系裡面

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所以這不是

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美國把TikTok

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整個買走了

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也不是TikTok

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甚麼都沒讓

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雙方真正交換的

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是不同種類的權力

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然後大家一定會問

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那算法到底有沒有賣

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這個問題我覺得

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反而沒有以前那麼重要了

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因為我們很容易把算法

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想成一本秘方

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秘方在誰手裡誰就贏

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可今天一個推薦系統

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真正怎麼影響用戶

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不只取決於那套技術本身

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還取決於拿甚麼數據訓練

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誰有權修改

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誰來測試

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哪個版本能上線

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出了問題誰能暫停

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所以TikTok

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這一次真正改變的

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是我們以後看科技公司

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恐怕不能只看

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這家公司是誰的

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還得看這家公司裡面

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真正能決定事情的權力

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分別在誰手裡

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這個地方講清楚就夠了

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因為接下來

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更有意思的問題是

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美國為甚麼最後

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願意接受這種安排

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如果它真的覺得

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TikTok那麼危險

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為甚麼不乾脆封到底

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答案其實沒有那麼浪漫

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不是美國突然變友好了

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也不是因為

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誰喊話比較強硬

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最現實的原因

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是TikTok已經大到

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美國自己也得算成本

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它在美國有超過兩億用戶

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後面連著大量創作者

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商家和廣告主

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很多美國的小生意

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本來就是靠TikTok

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找客戶賣東西

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如果今天把TikTok

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一刀切掉

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當然字節跳動會痛

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可美國自己的用戶

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和商家也會痛

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這才叫籌碼

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國際談判裡面有

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一個很現實的規律

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你說甚麼不重要

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對方失去你以後

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要付多少代價才重要

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如果一家中國應用

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在美國只有幾十萬用戶

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封掉以後市場上第二天

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就有替代品

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人家為甚麼要跟你談六年

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可能一紙命令就結束了

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TikTok不一樣

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它已經大到趕走它

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本身也變成一個

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需要計算的選擇

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所以這件事真正給

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中國企業的第一個啓發

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不是只要強硬就有結果

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而是沒有籌碼

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強硬沒有意義

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但只有籌碼也還不夠

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TikTok

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另外一個值得看的地方

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是它有辦法

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把自己的價值拆開

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哪些東西可以本地化

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用戶數據可以

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內容安全可以

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美國版推薦系統的

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運行管理也可以

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哪些東西不能一起交出去

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全球商業網絡

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產品連接

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品牌廣告電商

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這些真正能繼續

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創造收入的能力

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這個地方其實很考驗企業

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因為談判最難的

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從來不是讓不讓

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而是讓到哪裡為止

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人年輕的時候

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很容易覺得

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退一步就是吃虧

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後來做久了事情會發現

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有時候退一步並不可怕

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可怕的是你不知道

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自己真正該守甚麼

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最後不重要的東西

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死抓著不放

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真正值錢的東西

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卻慢慢丟掉

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企業也是一樣

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TikTok

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這一次真正做對的

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不一定是

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它守住了所有東西

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而是它至少沒有

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把所有價值放在

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同一個籃子裡面

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一次談判全部清空

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這就把問題帶到下一層

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如果以後其他中國科技

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公司也遇到類似壓力

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TikTok

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這套方法能不能複製

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答案是有些可以

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有些不行

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比較有機會的

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是互聯網

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軟件雲服務

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人工智能應用這一類

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為甚麼因為這些行業裡面

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很多安全風險可以切出來

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比如一家中國

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人工智能應用要進入美國

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美國擔心甚麼

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用戶數據

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會不會被拿回中國

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模型會不會

219
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拿美國用戶資料訓練

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誰能更新模型

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出了問題誰能停

222
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如果企業有辦法

223
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把這些問題單獨放到

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美國本地管理

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建立一套

226
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美國監管者能夠檢查

227
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追責的體系

228
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那事情就有談的空間

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美國未必要

230
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把整家公司拿走

231
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它可以說

232
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商業你繼續做

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但我最擔心的那一塊

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要按照我的規則來

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可如果換成先進芯片

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半導體設備

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某些軍民兩用技術

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就沒有這麼簡單

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因為美國擔心的可能不是

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你的數據放在哪裡

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而是你掌握這項技術本身

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就會改變國家實力

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這個時候你

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就算把服務器放在美國

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也解決不了根本問題

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所以TikTok真正

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可能留下的規則

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不是以後所有

249
00:06:10,966 --> 00:06:12,066
中國科技企業

250
00:06:12,066 --> 00:06:13,600
都有第三條路

251
00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:15,000
而是只要風險

252
00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:15,900
能夠被切成

253
00:06:15,900 --> 00:06:17,566
幾個具體的控制點

254
00:06:17,566 --> 00:06:19,566
就可能出現第三條路

255
00:06:19,566 --> 00:06:21,200
這是很關鍵的邊界

256
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,066
因為如果這個邊界成立

257
00:06:23,066 --> 00:06:24,266
未來科技公司

258
00:06:24,266 --> 00:06:25,866
會多一種以前沒有

259
00:06:25,866 --> 00:06:27,200
那麼重要的能力

260
00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:28,966
我把它叫作可拆

261
00:06:28,966 --> 00:06:30,666
不是把公司拆散

262
00:06:30,666 --> 00:06:31,833
而是你要有能力

263
00:06:31,833 --> 00:06:33,366
把不同風險分開

264
00:06:33,366 --> 00:06:34,433
美國用戶的數據

265
00:06:34,433 --> 00:06:35,666
能不能單獨存

266
00:06:35,666 --> 00:06:37,766
當地團隊能不能獨立管理

267
00:06:37,766 --> 00:06:39,866
安全系統能不能接受檢查

268
00:06:39,866 --> 00:06:40,633
出了事故

269
00:06:40,633 --> 00:06:42,866
當地有沒有人能夠處理

270
00:06:42,866 --> 00:06:43,900
同時這些安排

271
00:06:43,900 --> 00:06:44,966
會不會反過來

272
00:06:44,966 --> 00:06:46,433
把你的全球技術

273
00:06:46,433 --> 00:06:48,533
和商業體系一起掏空

274
00:06:48,566 --> 00:06:49,666
以前企業出海

275
00:06:49,666 --> 00:06:51,766
最重要的是產品做出來

276
00:06:51,766 --> 00:06:52,600
找到用戶

277
00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,033
以後很可能不夠

278
00:06:54,033 --> 00:06:56,233
你從產品設計的第一天

279
00:06:56,233 --> 00:06:57,866
就得想如果有一天

280
00:06:57,866 --> 00:07:00,200
我要進美國歐洲中東

281
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:01,366
這個系統能不能

282
00:07:01,366 --> 00:07:03,066
根據不同國家的要求

283
00:07:03,066 --> 00:07:04,400
拆成幾個部分

284
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:05,766
有些數據留當地

285
00:07:05,766 --> 00:07:07,566
有些權限留總部

286
00:07:07,566 --> 00:07:09,066
有些地方讓人檢查

287
00:07:09,066 --> 00:07:10,833
但最核心的技術能力

288
00:07:10,833 --> 00:07:12,566
又不能一次交出去

289
00:07:12,566 --> 00:07:13,300
你會發現

290
00:07:13,300 --> 00:07:14,933
出海越來越不像

291
00:07:14,933 --> 00:07:16,066
單純賣產品

292
00:07:16,066 --> 00:07:17,266
更像在不同國家

293
00:07:17,266 --> 00:07:18,300
重新搭一個

294
00:07:18,300 --> 00:07:19,333
版本的自己

295
00:07:19,433 --> 00:07:21,000
這件事最大的後果

296
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,833
就是全球化會越來越貴

297
00:07:23,833 --> 00:07:25,066
過去全球互聯網

298
00:07:25,066 --> 00:07:26,700
最舒服的狀態是甚麼

299
00:07:26,700 --> 00:07:27,566
一套系統

300
00:07:27,566 --> 00:07:28,366
一個後台

301
00:07:28,366 --> 00:07:29,266
一個總部

302
00:07:29,300 --> 00:07:30,600
全世界一起跑

303
00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,066
成本低效率高

304
00:07:32,066 --> 00:07:33,366
以後可能變成

305
00:07:33,366 --> 00:07:34,000
到了美國

306
00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,166
有一套美國的數據和治理

307
00:07:36,166 --> 00:07:36,966
到了歐洲

308
00:07:36,966 --> 00:07:38,266
又有歐洲的版本

309
00:07:38,266 --> 00:07:39,500
去了其他市場

310
00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:41,166
還得重新調整

311
00:07:41,166 --> 00:07:43,000
品牌看起來還是一個

312
00:07:43,033 --> 00:07:45,500
裡面卻已經分成很多房間

313
00:07:45,500 --> 00:07:47,466
每個房間有自己的鎖

314
00:07:47,466 --> 00:07:48,966
這對大公司還可以

315
00:07:48,966 --> 00:07:50,100
大公司有錢

316
00:07:50,100 --> 00:07:51,966
有律師有技術團隊

317
00:07:51,966 --> 00:07:53,233
有安全團隊

318
00:07:53,233 --> 00:07:55,600
也養得起當地管理機構

319
00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,566
可中小公司就很難

320
00:07:57,633 --> 00:07:58,833
一家創業公司

321
00:07:58,833 --> 00:07:59,966
產品剛做起來

322
00:07:59,966 --> 00:08:01,166
還沒賺多少錢

323
00:08:01,166 --> 00:08:02,666
就讓它在三個國家

324
00:08:02,666 --> 00:08:04,466
搭三套合規體系

325
00:08:04,466 --> 00:08:06,333
它可能根本撐不住

326
00:08:06,366 --> 00:08:07,166
所以TikTok

327
00:08:07,166 --> 00:08:08,433
這條第三條路

328
00:08:08,433 --> 00:08:10,200
並不代表科技全球化

329
00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:11,500
從此更容易

330
00:08:11,500 --> 00:08:12,866
很可能正好相反

331
00:08:12,866 --> 00:08:14,200
全球市場還在

332
00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:15,066
但進入全球

333
00:08:15,066 --> 00:08:16,966
市場的門票變貴了

334
00:08:16,966 --> 00:08:18,233
而且門票越貴

335
00:08:18,233 --> 00:08:19,800
大公司越佔優勢

336
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,866
這個現象蠻值得注意

337
00:08:21,866 --> 00:08:23,000
我們平常覺得

338
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,466
監管主要是在限制大公司

339
00:08:25,466 --> 00:08:26,833
可當監管複雜到

340
00:08:26,833 --> 00:08:28,300
一定程度以後

341
00:08:28,300 --> 00:08:29,866
反而可能變成

342
00:08:29,966 --> 00:08:31,500
大公司的護城河

343
00:08:31,500 --> 00:08:33,066
因為同樣一套規則

344
00:08:33,066 --> 00:08:34,766
大公司一年花

345
00:08:34,766 --> 00:08:36,566
幾億元也許只是成本

346
00:08:36,566 --> 00:08:37,633
小公司花不起

347
00:08:37,633 --> 00:08:39,700
就只能放棄那個市場

348
00:08:39,700 --> 00:08:41,666
所以未來科技競爭的門檻

349
00:08:41,700 --> 00:08:43,233
可能不只是技術

350
00:08:43,233 --> 00:08:44,200
還有一整套

351
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:45,400
處理不同國家

352
00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:46,500
監管的能力

353
00:08:46,500 --> 00:08:47,533
再往後看

354
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:48,400
這種變化其實

355
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:49,766
不只發生在美國

356
00:08:49,766 --> 00:08:50,833
中國自己也很

357
00:08:50,833 --> 00:08:52,066
熟悉類似邏輯

358
00:08:52,066 --> 00:08:53,400
蘋果在中國大陸

359
00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:54,900
提供雲服務時

360
00:08:54,966 --> 00:08:56,600
中國用戶的相關數據

361
00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,733
就要按照中國本地規則

362
00:08:58,766 --> 00:09:00,066
在當地體系運營

363
00:09:00,066 --> 00:09:01,966
當然這和TikTok

364
00:09:01,966 --> 00:09:03,300
今天這套安排

365
00:09:03,300 --> 00:09:04,800
並不是同一件事

366
00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:06,766
TikTok牽涉得更深

367
00:09:06,766 --> 00:09:07,566
除了數據

368
00:09:07,566 --> 00:09:08,500
還有內容

369
00:09:08,500 --> 00:09:09,400
推薦系統

370
00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:10,466
代碼安全

371
00:09:10,466 --> 00:09:11,266
但兩件事

372
00:09:11,266 --> 00:09:13,033
背後的方向很接近

373
00:09:13,033 --> 00:09:14,466
數字時代走到今天

374
00:09:14,466 --> 00:09:15,733
各國政府越來越

375
00:09:15,733 --> 00:09:16,900
不滿足於企業一句

376
00:09:16,900 --> 00:09:19,200
你放心我會保護你的用戶

377
00:09:19,233 --> 00:09:20,533
政府會繼續問

378
00:09:20,533 --> 00:09:21,866
數據到底在哪裡

379
00:09:21,866 --> 00:09:23,966
誰能看誰能改系統

380
00:09:23,966 --> 00:09:25,766
出了問題誰負責

381
00:09:25,766 --> 00:09:26,633
所以我覺得

382
00:09:26,633 --> 00:09:27,966
未來真正改變

383
00:09:27,966 --> 00:09:29,366
全球科技產業的

384
00:09:29,366 --> 00:09:31,200
可能不是簡單的脫鈎

385
00:09:31,366 --> 00:09:33,333
而是一種更麻煩的狀態

386
00:09:33,500 --> 00:09:35,166
生意繼續全球化

387
00:09:35,166 --> 00:09:37,233
敏感權力開始本地化

388
00:09:37,233 --> 00:09:39,066
公司還是全球公司

389
00:09:39,166 --> 00:09:40,166
錢還是跨國賺

390
00:09:40,266 --> 00:09:42,300
用戶也可能繼續連接

391
00:09:42,300 --> 00:09:43,166
但是數據

392
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,200
算法運行和安全責任

393
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,233
會越來越被

394
00:09:46,233 --> 00:09:48,300
各國抓回自己手裡

395
00:09:48,300 --> 00:09:50,666
這其實比完全脫鈎更複雜

396
00:09:50,666 --> 00:09:52,033
因為脫鈎很簡單

397
00:09:52,033 --> 00:09:52,833
你走你的

398
00:09:52,833 --> 00:09:53,866
我走我的

399
00:09:53,866 --> 00:09:54,866
現在反而是

400
00:09:54,866 --> 00:09:56,033
生意還要做

401
00:09:56,033 --> 00:09:58,000
可我又不完全信任你

402
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,166
於是雙方只能一直畫邊界

403
00:10:00,233 --> 00:10:01,033
哪裡歸你

404
00:10:01,033 --> 00:10:02,066
哪裡歸我

405
00:10:02,066 --> 00:10:03,233
甚麼能跨境

406
00:10:03,233 --> 00:10:04,766
甚麼不能跨境

407
00:10:04,766 --> 00:10:05,800
這才是TikTok

408
00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:07,100
這件事真正有

409
00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:08,600
長期價值的地方

410
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:09,400
它不是證明

411
00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,000
中美科技戰結束了

412
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:12,033
恰恰相反

413
00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,566
它可能說明中美科技戰

414
00:10:13,566 --> 00:10:15,300
正在從一個很粗的階段

415
00:10:15,333 --> 00:10:16,966
進入一個更細的階段

416
00:10:16,966 --> 00:10:18,566
過去爭讓不讓你進

417
00:10:18,566 --> 00:10:20,133
以後爭你進來以後

418
00:10:20,133 --> 00:10:21,466
到底能做什麼

419
00:10:21,466 --> 00:10:22,666
這對美國自己其實

420
00:10:22,666 --> 00:10:23,966
也不是沒有成本

421
00:10:23,966 --> 00:10:25,066
很多人會覺得

422
00:10:25,066 --> 00:10:27,066
美國要求數據留在美國

423
00:10:27,066 --> 00:10:28,833
代碼讓甲骨文檢查

424
00:10:28,833 --> 00:10:30,233
那不是很簡單嗎

425
00:10:30,233 --> 00:10:31,900
其實長期監管一家

426
00:10:31,933 --> 00:10:34,100
科技公司比直接封掉它

427
00:10:34,133 --> 00:10:35,100
麻煩多了

428
00:10:35,133 --> 00:10:36,500
封是一次動作

429
00:10:36,533 --> 00:10:38,566
管是每天都有事情

430
00:10:38,566 --> 00:10:39,866
今天代碼檢查完

431
00:10:39,866 --> 00:10:41,700
明天產品又更新

432
00:10:41,733 --> 00:10:43,433
這個月算法是這個版本

433
00:10:43,433 --> 00:10:44,766
下個月又換了

434
00:10:44,766 --> 00:10:46,066
工程師也會換

435
00:10:46,066 --> 00:10:47,666
數據結構也會變

436
00:10:47,666 --> 00:10:49,066
所以美國如果真的

437
00:10:49,066 --> 00:10:51,166
要靠這種模式長期管理

438
00:10:51,166 --> 00:10:52,500
外國科技平台

439
00:10:52,533 --> 00:10:55,166
它自己也得提高監管能力

440
00:10:55,166 --> 00:10:56,633
得有人看得懂代碼

441
00:10:56,633 --> 00:10:57,700
有人懂算法

442
00:10:57,733 --> 00:10:59,300
有人能夠判斷企業

443
00:10:59,333 --> 00:11:00,833
有沒有繞過規則

444
00:11:00,833 --> 00:11:02,733
這意味著雙方都要為

445
00:11:02,766 --> 00:11:04,666
繼續做生意付新的成本

446
00:11:04,766 --> 00:11:06,200
而這個成本可能就是

447
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:07,900
未來全球科技市場

448
00:11:07,933 --> 00:11:09,433
最真實的樣子

449
00:11:09,433 --> 00:11:11,000
它不會回到過去那種

450
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,633
毫無防備的全球化

451
00:11:12,633 --> 00:11:14,400
但也未必一定走到

452
00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:15,566
徹底切斷

453
00:11:15,566 --> 00:11:17,400
中間會出現越來越多

454
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:18,866
這種奇怪的結構

455
00:11:18,966 --> 00:11:20,700
我們不完全信任彼此

456
00:11:20,733 --> 00:11:21,866
可是我們又捨不得

457
00:11:21,866 --> 00:11:23,233
完全不做生意

458
00:11:23,233 --> 00:11:25,566
所以只好一層一層加鎖

459
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,600
這件事情如果放回臺灣看

460
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:28,833
我覺得其實也很

461
00:11:28,833 --> 00:11:29,866
值得想一下

462
00:11:29,866 --> 00:11:31,800
臺灣討論科技產業的時候

463
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:33,033
很容易盯著一個

464
00:11:33,033 --> 00:11:35,000
最直觀的東西工廠

465
00:11:35,033 --> 00:11:36,100
廠有沒有搬

466
00:11:36,100 --> 00:11:36,866
搬了幾座

467
00:11:36,866 --> 00:11:38,833
美國又要建多少產能

468
00:11:38,833 --> 00:11:40,266
這些當然重要

469
00:11:40,266 --> 00:11:41,600
可是TikTok提醒了

470
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:43,433
我們一個很現實的問題

471
00:11:43,433 --> 00:11:45,300
看產業不要只看東西

472
00:11:45,300 --> 00:11:46,066
搬到哪裡

473
00:11:46,066 --> 00:11:48,033
還要看決定權搬到哪裡

474
00:11:48,033 --> 00:11:49,000
比如半導體

475
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:50,866
下一代技術在哪裡研發

476
00:11:50,866 --> 00:11:52,966
最厲害的工程師在哪裡

477
00:11:52,966 --> 00:11:54,500
大客戶先跟誰談

478
00:11:54,533 --> 00:11:56,100
產能最緊張的時候

479
00:11:56,100 --> 00:11:58,133
誰決定先供給誰

480
00:11:58,166 --> 00:12:00,266
下一輪投資由誰決定

481
00:12:00,266 --> 00:12:01,500
這些比單純一座

482
00:12:01,533 --> 00:12:03,700
廠房的位置更重要

483
00:12:03,700 --> 00:12:05,800
所以臺灣企業去美國蓋廠

484
00:12:05,833 --> 00:12:07,200
不代表核心能力

485
00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:08,266
隔天就沒了

486
00:12:08,266 --> 00:12:10,300
反過來總部還留在臺灣

487
00:12:10,366 --> 00:12:12,366
也不代表所有核心權力

488
00:12:12,366 --> 00:12:13,400
永遠都在

489
00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:14,833
真正應該看的

490
00:12:14,833 --> 00:12:16,766
是關鍵時刻還有沒有

491
00:12:16,766 --> 00:12:18,666
自己做決定的空間

492
00:12:18,666 --> 00:12:20,100
人到中年其實很容易

493
00:12:20,100 --> 00:12:21,000
懂這個道理

494
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:22,500
房子寫誰的名字

495
00:12:22,533 --> 00:12:23,400
當然重要

496
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,033
可是一個家庭真正

497
00:12:25,033 --> 00:12:26,100
有沒有自主

498
00:12:26,133 --> 00:12:27,900
最後還要看重大事情

499
00:12:27,933 --> 00:12:30,033
誰能決定錢誰能調度

500
00:12:30,033 --> 00:12:31,866
出了問題誰還有退路

501
00:12:31,866 --> 00:12:33,200
產業也一樣

502
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:34,833
有時候真正危險的

503
00:12:34,833 --> 00:12:36,766
不是東西出去一點

504
00:12:36,766 --> 00:12:38,466
而是決定權出去以後

505
00:12:38,466 --> 00:12:40,200
就再也回不來了

506
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:41,900
所以放回臺灣的位置看

507
00:12:41,933 --> 00:12:43,666
未來真正該守的不是

508
00:12:43,666 --> 00:12:44,700
什麼都不能動

509
00:12:44,733 --> 00:12:46,233
而是那些一旦失去

510
00:12:46,233 --> 00:12:47,266
就會讓自己沒有

511
00:12:47,266 --> 00:12:48,600
選擇的東西

512
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:49,633
這也是為什麼

513
00:12:49,633 --> 00:12:50,966
我覺得現在還不能

514
00:12:50,966 --> 00:12:51,833
急著宣布

515
00:12:51,833 --> 00:12:53,266
TikTok的新規則

516
00:12:53,266 --> 00:12:54,300
已經成功了

517
00:12:54,333 --> 00:12:56,233
這件事很適合用易經

518
00:12:56,233 --> 00:12:58,400
裡面的未濟來理解

519
00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:00,066
未濟不是失敗

520
00:13:00,066 --> 00:13:01,433
它講的是事情已經

521
00:13:01,433 --> 00:13:02,300
走到後面

522
00:13:02,333 --> 00:13:03,833
看起來快完成了

523
00:13:03,833 --> 00:13:05,300
但新的狀態還沒

524
00:13:05,333 --> 00:13:06,400
真正站穩

525
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:07,366
TikTok現在

526
00:13:07,366 --> 00:13:08,033
就是這樣

527
00:13:08,033 --> 00:13:09,033
交易落地

528
00:13:09,033 --> 00:13:09,966
禁令撤掉

529
00:13:09,966 --> 00:13:11,233
最危險的階段

530
00:13:11,233 --> 00:13:12,433
好像過去了

531
00:13:12,433 --> 00:13:14,000
可是這套安排到底

532
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,133
能不能變成真正的規則

533
00:13:16,133 --> 00:13:17,666
我覺得接下來只要

534
00:13:17,666 --> 00:13:19,566
看三個問題就夠了

535
00:13:19,566 --> 00:13:21,466
第一個能不能複製

536
00:13:21,466 --> 00:13:23,100
下一家中國科技企業

537
00:13:23,133 --> 00:13:24,400
遇到類似問題

538
00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:25,966
美國還願不願意談

539
00:13:25,966 --> 00:13:27,600
這種本地治理方案

540
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:28,766
如果只有TikTok

541
00:13:28,766 --> 00:13:29,566
一個特例

542
00:13:29,566 --> 00:13:31,033
那它就不是規則

543
00:13:31,033 --> 00:13:33,400
第二個能不能跨政府延續

544
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:34,966
美國換一屆政府以後

545
00:13:34,966 --> 00:13:36,900
這套辦法還能不能繼續

546
00:13:37,033 --> 00:13:38,233
如果每換一次人

547
00:13:38,233 --> 00:13:39,666
就全部推倒重來

548
00:13:39,666 --> 00:13:41,866
那它只是一次政治交易

549
00:13:41,866 --> 00:13:43,633
第三個能不能經得起

550
00:13:43,633 --> 00:13:44,700
真正的事故

551
00:13:44,733 --> 00:13:46,233
平常沒有問題的時候

552
00:13:46,233 --> 00:13:48,566
任何制度看起來都很好

553
00:13:48,566 --> 00:13:50,000
如果以後真的出現

554
00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:51,900
數據爭議算法爭議

555
00:13:51,933 --> 00:13:53,100
安全事故

556
00:13:53,100 --> 00:13:55,400
這套本地治理能不能解決

557
00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,266
而不是最後又回到一句

558
00:13:57,266 --> 00:13:58,566
直接禁掉

559
00:13:58,566 --> 00:14:00,266
只要這三關還沒過

560
00:14:00,266 --> 00:14:02,166
現在就不能叫既濟

561
00:14:02,166 --> 00:14:03,300
最多只能說

562
00:14:03,333 --> 00:14:05,566
第三條路已經被走出來了

563
00:14:05,566 --> 00:14:06,933
但是這條路能不能

564
00:14:06,933 --> 00:14:08,966
鋪成公路還不知道

565
00:14:08,966 --> 00:14:10,966
這裡順便講一個最近

566
00:14:10,966 --> 00:14:12,200
很容易被放在一起

567
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:13,200
解釋的事情

568
00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:14,866
最近確實有中國企業

569
00:14:14,866 --> 00:14:16,633
收到美國關稅退款

570
00:14:16,633 --> 00:14:18,033
有些金額很大

571
00:14:18,033 --> 00:14:19,433
但我不會把這件事

572
00:14:19,433 --> 00:14:21,266
直接解釋成美國突然

573
00:14:21,266 --> 00:14:22,866
對中國態度變好了

574
00:14:22,866 --> 00:14:24,433
這一輪退款最直接

575
00:14:24,433 --> 00:14:26,966
的背景是美國司法裁決

576
00:14:26,966 --> 00:14:28,700
推翻了此前一部分

577
00:14:28,733 --> 00:14:29,600
關稅授權

578
00:14:29,633 --> 00:14:31,100
後面依法處理退款

579
00:14:31,133 --> 00:14:32,633
它首先是法律結果

580
00:14:32,633 --> 00:14:33,766
不是美國突然

581
00:14:33,766 --> 00:14:35,333
送出來的一份禮物

582
00:14:35,366 --> 00:14:36,400
為什麼這個地方

583
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:37,266
要分清楚

584
00:14:37,266 --> 00:14:39,033
因為我們看國際關係

585
00:14:39,033 --> 00:14:40,233
很容易把所有

586
00:14:40,233 --> 00:14:41,566
對自己有利的事情

587
00:14:41,566 --> 00:14:43,966
都解釋成對方服軟了

588
00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:44,800
這樣講很爽

589
00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,133
可是很容易看錯下一步

590
00:14:47,133 --> 00:14:48,400
TikTok也是一樣

591
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,200
我覺得它真正的價值

592
00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,433
不是證明美國被誰打服

593
00:14:52,433 --> 00:14:53,500
而是證明一件

594
00:14:53,533 --> 00:14:55,100
更現實的事情

595
00:14:55,100 --> 00:14:57,300
當徹底封殺的成本太高

596
00:14:57,333 --> 00:14:58,766
而企業又不可能

597
00:14:58,766 --> 00:15:00,066
什麼都不讓的時候

598
00:15:00,066 --> 00:15:01,766
中間確實可能談出

599
00:15:01,766 --> 00:15:03,166
一種新的分法

600
00:15:03,166 --> 00:15:04,100
美國沒有拿到

601
00:15:04,100 --> 00:15:05,500
最理想的TikTok

602
00:15:05,533 --> 00:15:06,833
TikTok也沒有保住

603
00:15:06,833 --> 00:15:08,466
原來的所有控制權

604
00:15:08,466 --> 00:15:10,033
雙方都讓了一些

605
00:15:10,033 --> 00:15:11,500
可雙方也都保住了

606
00:15:11,500 --> 00:15:14,066
自己最不能失去的那一塊

607
00:15:14,066 --> 00:15:15,533
這種結果看起來沒有

608
00:15:15,566 --> 00:15:17,300
誰徹底贏了那麼刺激

609
00:15:17,333 --> 00:15:18,633
但它反而更像

610
00:15:18,633 --> 00:15:20,933
真正能長期存在的規則

611
00:15:20,933 --> 00:15:22,366
因為國家之間很多

612
00:15:22,366 --> 00:15:23,566
穩定的邊界

613
00:15:23,566 --> 00:15:25,100
就是這麼長出來的

614
00:15:25,133 --> 00:15:27,000
不是因為突然互相信任

615
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,600
而是因為彼此都發現

616
00:15:28,666 --> 00:15:29,866
再往前一步

617
00:15:29,866 --> 00:15:31,733
自己也要付代價

618
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:33,033
所以回到最開始

619
00:15:33,033 --> 00:15:34,033
TikTok解禁

620
00:15:34,033 --> 00:15:35,533
當然是一條新聞

621
00:15:35,566 --> 00:15:37,066
但幾年以後如果我們

622
00:15:37,066 --> 00:15:38,066
再回頭看

623
00:15:38,066 --> 00:15:40,266
真正重要的也許不是

624
00:15:40,266 --> 00:15:41,800
2026年美國政府

625
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,300
設備上終於又能使用

626
00:15:43,300 --> 00:15:43,933
TikTok

627
00:15:43,933 --> 00:15:45,200
而是另外一件事

628
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:46,266
過去那道只有

629
00:15:46,266 --> 00:15:47,233
兩個選項的門

630
00:15:47,233 --> 00:15:48,866
賣掉或者退出

631
00:15:48,866 --> 00:15:50,700
第一次被擠出了一條

632
00:15:50,733 --> 00:15:52,466
真正存在的縫

633
00:15:52,466 --> 00:15:53,600
生意可以繼續

634
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,800
但關鍵權力要重新談

635
00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:56,866
不同市場可能有

636
00:15:56,866 --> 00:15:57,766
不同的邊界

637
00:15:57,766 --> 00:15:59,366
這條縫現在還不寬

638
00:15:59,366 --> 00:16:00,433
能不能走成一條

639
00:16:00,433 --> 00:16:01,300
穩定的路

640
00:16:01,333 --> 00:16:02,766
也還沒有答案

641
00:16:02,766 --> 00:16:03,966
可是只要它真的

642
00:16:03,966 --> 00:16:05,066
存在過一次

643
00:16:05,066 --> 00:16:06,633
以後面對類似事件

644
00:16:06,633 --> 00:16:08,300
我們就可以少問一句

645
00:16:08,333 --> 00:16:09,633
到底誰贏了

646
00:16:09,633 --> 00:16:10,566
多問一句

647
00:16:10,566 --> 00:16:11,866
最後誰還保留

648
00:16:11,866 --> 00:16:13,533
調整自己的能力

649
00:16:13,633 --> 00:16:15,000
因為真正的被動

650
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:16,633
從來不是少賺一點

651
00:16:16,633 --> 00:16:17,633
也不是退一步

652
00:16:17,633 --> 00:16:19,433
而是有一天局勢變了

653
00:16:19,433 --> 00:16:20,266
你才發現

654
00:16:20,366 --> 00:16:21,833
自己手裡已經沒有

655
00:16:21,833 --> 00:16:23,966
可以重新選擇的東西了