美國在8月10日撤掉了
聯邦政府設備上的
TikTok禁令
這條新聞出來以後
很多人的第一反應很直接
美國退了
TikTok扛住了
中國這次算贏了
可我把這件事前前後後
重新看了一遍以後
反而覺得
如果最後只落到
一個誰贏了
其實有點可惜
真正值得看的
是TikTok最後
既沒有整個賣給美國
也沒有退出美國
雙方最後談出來的辦法
是把一家公司裡面
原本綁在一起的東西拆開
美國用戶的數據
安全內容治理
包括美國版
推薦系統怎麼訓練
怎麼更新
由美國本地的體系負責
但TikTok的廣告
電商營銷
還有和全球產品
之間的連接
並沒有一起被拿走
字節跳動也沒有完全退出
所以這件事真正出現的
不是美國
放過TikTok
而是中美科技戰
第一次比較清楚地
出現了第三種結果
公司不一定要整個賣掉
但敏感權力
可以單獨切出來
交給當地管理
過去大家以為
只有兩個按鈕
賣掉或者退出
現在中間多了一條縫
而這條縫如果以後
還能複製到別的公司
意義就遠遠超過
TikTok本身
先把現在的結構講清楚
2026年1月
TikTok美國業務
新的合資安排正式落地
字節跳動保留
19.9%的股份
甲骨文銀湖資本
和阿聯酋投資機構等
成為主要股東
但老實講
這件事如果只看股權
很容易看錯
因為真正重要的
不是誰手裡有幾成股票
而是誰能做甚麼
新的美國合資公司負責
美國用戶的數據保護
內容安全
軟件安全
以及美國版
推薦系統的訓練
測試和更新
甲骨文負責
美國的數據環境
也參與代碼檢查
但是TikTok
在美國的廣告
電商營銷
以及全球產品連接
還是留在TikTok
全球體系裡面
所以這不是
美國把TikTok
整個買走了
也不是TikTok
甚麼都沒讓
雙方真正交換的
是不同種類的權力
然後大家一定會問
那算法到底有沒有賣
這個問題我覺得
反而沒有以前那麼重要了
因為我們很容易把算法
想成一本秘方
秘方在誰手裡誰就贏
可今天一個推薦系統
真正怎麼影響用戶
不只取決於那套技術本身
還取決於拿甚麼數據訓練
誰有權修改
誰來測試
哪個版本能上線
出了問題誰能暫停
所以TikTok
這一次真正改變的
是我們以後看科技公司
恐怕不能只看
這家公司是誰的
還得看這家公司裡面
真正能決定事情的權力
分別在誰手裡
這個地方講清楚就夠了
因為接下來
更有意思的問題是
美國為甚麼最後
願意接受這種安排
如果它真的覺得
TikTok那麼危險
為甚麼不乾脆封到底
答案其實沒有那麼浪漫
不是美國突然變友好了
也不是因為
誰喊話比較強硬
最現實的原因
是TikTok已經大到
美國自己也得算成本
它在美國有超過兩億用戶
後面連著大量創作者
商家和廣告主
很多美國的小生意
本來就是靠TikTok
找客戶賣東西
如果今天把TikTok
一刀切掉
當然字節跳動會痛
可美國自己的用戶
和商家也會痛
這才叫籌碼
國際談判裡面有
一個很現實的規律
你說甚麼不重要
對方失去你以後
要付多少代價才重要
如果一家中國應用
在美國只有幾十萬用戶
封掉以後市場上第二天
就有替代品
人家為甚麼要跟你談六年
可能一紙命令就結束了
TikTok不一樣
它已經大到趕走它
本身也變成一個
需要計算的選擇
所以這件事真正給
中國企業的第一個啓發
不是只要強硬就有結果
而是沒有籌碼
強硬沒有意義
但只有籌碼也還不夠
TikTok
另外一個值得看的地方
是它有辦法
把自己的價值拆開
哪些東西可以本地化
用戶數據可以
內容安全可以
美國版推薦系統的
運行管理也可以
哪些東西不能一起交出去
全球商業網絡
產品連接
品牌廣告電商
這些真正能繼續
創造收入的能力
這個地方其實很考驗企業
因為談判最難的
從來不是讓不讓
而是讓到哪裡為止
人年輕的時候
很容易覺得
退一步就是吃虧
後來做久了事情會發現
有時候退一步並不可怕
可怕的是你不知道
自己真正該守甚麼
最後不重要的東西
死抓著不放
真正值錢的東西
卻慢慢丟掉
企業也是一樣
TikTok
這一次真正做對的
不一定是
它守住了所有東西
而是它至少沒有
把所有價值放在
同一個籃子裡面
一次談判全部清空
這就把問題帶到下一層
如果以後其他中國科技
公司也遇到類似壓力
TikTok
這套方法能不能複製
答案是有些可以
有些不行
比較有機會的
是互聯網
軟件雲服務
人工智能應用這一類
為甚麼因為這些行業裡面
很多安全風險可以切出來
比如一家中國
人工智能應用要進入美國
美國擔心甚麼
用戶數據
會不會被拿回中國
模型會不會
拿美國用戶資料訓練
誰能更新模型
出了問題誰能停
如果企業有辦法
把這些問題單獨放到
美國本地管理
建立一套
美國監管者能夠檢查
追責的體系
那事情就有談的空間
美國未必要
把整家公司拿走
它可以說
商業你繼續做
但我最擔心的那一塊
要按照我的規則來
可如果換成先進芯片
半導體設備
某些軍民兩用技術
就沒有這麼簡單
因為美國擔心的可能不是
你的數據放在哪裡
而是你掌握這項技術本身
就會改變國家實力
這個時候你
就算把服務器放在美國
也解決不了根本問題
所以TikTok真正
可能留下的規則
不是以後所有
中國科技企業
都有第三條路
而是只要風險
能夠被切成
幾個具體的控制點
就可能出現第三條路
這是很關鍵的邊界
因為如果這個邊界成立
未來科技公司
會多一種以前沒有
那麼重要的能力
我把它叫作可拆
不是把公司拆散
而是你要有能力
把不同風險分開
美國用戶的數據
能不能單獨存
當地團隊能不能獨立管理
安全系統能不能接受檢查
出了事故
當地有沒有人能夠處理
同時這些安排
會不會反過來
把你的全球技術
和商業體系一起掏空
以前企業出海
最重要的是產品做出來
找到用戶
以後很可能不夠
你從產品設計的第一天
就得想如果有一天
我要進美國歐洲中東
這個系統能不能
根據不同國家的要求
拆成幾個部分
有些數據留當地
有些權限留總部
有些地方讓人檢查
但最核心的技術能力
又不能一次交出去
你會發現
出海越來越不像
單純賣產品
更像在不同國家
重新搭一個
版本的自己
這件事最大的後果
就是全球化會越來越貴
過去全球互聯網
最舒服的狀態是甚麼
一套系統
一個後台
一個總部
全世界一起跑
成本低效率高
以後可能變成
到了美國
有一套美國的數據和治理
到了歐洲
又有歐洲的版本
去了其他市場
還得重新調整
品牌看起來還是一個
裡面卻已經分成很多房間
每個房間有自己的鎖
這對大公司還可以
大公司有錢
有律師有技術團隊
有安全團隊
也養得起當地管理機構
可中小公司就很難
一家創業公司
產品剛做起來
還沒賺多少錢
就讓它在三個國家
搭三套合規體系
它可能根本撐不住
所以TikTok
這條第三條路
並不代表科技全球化
從此更容易
很可能正好相反
全球市場還在
但進入全球
市場的門票變貴了
而且門票越貴
大公司越佔優勢
這個現象蠻值得注意
我們平常覺得
監管主要是在限制大公司
可當監管複雜到
一定程度以後
反而可能變成
大公司的護城河
因為同樣一套規則
大公司一年花
幾億元也許只是成本
小公司花不起
就只能放棄那個市場
所以未來科技競爭的門檻
可能不只是技術
還有一整套
處理不同國家
監管的能力
再往後看
這種變化其實
不只發生在美國
中國自己也很
熟悉類似邏輯
蘋果在中國大陸
提供雲服務時
中國用戶的相關數據
就要按照中國本地規則
在當地體系運營
當然這和TikTok
今天這套安排
並不是同一件事
TikTok牽涉得更深
除了數據
還有內容
推薦系統
代碼安全
但兩件事
背後的方向很接近
數字時代走到今天
各國政府越來越
不滿足於企業一句
你放心我會保護你的用戶
政府會繼續問
數據到底在哪裡
誰能看誰能改系統
出了問題誰負責
所以我覺得
未來真正改變
全球科技產業的
可能不是簡單的脫鈎
而是一種更麻煩的狀態
生意繼續全球化
敏感權力開始本地化
公司還是全球公司
錢還是跨國賺
用戶也可能繼續連接
但是數據
算法運行和安全責任
會越來越被
各國抓回自己手裡
這其實比完全脫鈎更複雜
因為脫鈎很簡單
你走你的
我走我的
現在反而是
生意還要做
可我又不完全信任你
於是雙方只能一直畫邊界
哪裡歸你
哪裡歸我
甚麼能跨境
甚麼不能跨境
這才是TikTok
這件事真正有
長期價值的地方
它不是證明
中美科技戰結束了
恰恰相反
它可能說明中美科技戰
正在從一個很粗的階段
進入一個更細的階段
過去爭讓不讓你進
以後爭你進來以後
到底能做什麼
這對美國自己其實
也不是沒有成本
很多人會覺得
美國要求數據留在美國
代碼讓甲骨文檢查
那不是很簡單嗎
其實長期監管一家
科技公司比直接封掉它
麻煩多了
封是一次動作
管是每天都有事情
今天代碼檢查完
明天產品又更新
這個月算法是這個版本
下個月又換了
工程師也會換
數據結構也會變
所以美國如果真的
要靠這種模式長期管理
外國科技平台
它自己也得提高監管能力
得有人看得懂代碼
有人懂算法
有人能夠判斷企業
有沒有繞過規則
這意味著雙方都要為
繼續做生意付新的成本
而這個成本可能就是
未來全球科技市場
最真實的樣子
它不會回到過去那種
毫無防備的全球化
但也未必一定走到
徹底切斷
中間會出現越來越多
這種奇怪的結構
我們不完全信任彼此
可是我們又捨不得
完全不做生意
所以只好一層一層加鎖
這件事情如果放回臺灣看
我覺得其實也很
值得想一下
臺灣討論科技產業的時候
很容易盯著一個
最直觀的東西工廠
廠有沒有搬
搬了幾座
美國又要建多少產能
這些當然重要
可是TikTok提醒了
我們一個很現實的問題
看產業不要只看東西
搬到哪裡
還要看決定權搬到哪裡
比如半導體
下一代技術在哪裡研發
最厲害的工程師在哪裡
大客戶先跟誰談
產能最緊張的時候
誰決定先供給誰
下一輪投資由誰決定
這些比單純一座
廠房的位置更重要
所以臺灣企業去美國蓋廠
不代表核心能力
隔天就沒了
反過來總部還留在臺灣
也不代表所有核心權力
永遠都在
真正應該看的
是關鍵時刻還有沒有
自己做決定的空間
人到中年其實很容易
懂這個道理
房子寫誰的名字
當然重要
可是一個家庭真正
有沒有自主
最後還要看重大事情
誰能決定錢誰能調度
出了問題誰還有退路
產業也一樣
有時候真正危險的
不是東西出去一點
而是決定權出去以後
就再也回不來了
所以放回臺灣的位置看
未來真正該守的不是
什麼都不能動
而是那些一旦失去
就會讓自己沒有
選擇的東西
這也是為什麼
我覺得現在還不能
急著宣布
TikTok的新規則
已經成功了
這件事很適合用易經
裡面的未濟來理解
未濟不是失敗
它講的是事情已經
走到後面
看起來快完成了
但新的狀態還沒
真正站穩
TikTok現在
就是這樣
交易落地
禁令撤掉
最危險的階段
好像過去了
可是這套安排到底
能不能變成真正的規則
我覺得接下來只要
看三個問題就夠了
第一個能不能複製
下一家中國科技企業
遇到類似問題
美國還願不願意談
這種本地治理方案
如果只有TikTok
一個特例
那它就不是規則
第二個能不能跨政府延續
美國換一屆政府以後
這套辦法還能不能繼續
如果每換一次人
就全部推倒重來
那它只是一次政治交易
第三個能不能經得起
真正的事故
平常沒有問題的時候
任何制度看起來都很好
如果以後真的出現
數據爭議算法爭議
安全事故
這套本地治理能不能解決
而不是最後又回到一句
直接禁掉
只要這三關還沒過
現在就不能叫既濟
最多只能說
第三條路已經被走出來了
但是這條路能不能
鋪成公路還不知道
這裡順便講一個最近
很容易被放在一起
解釋的事情
最近確實有中國企業
收到美國關稅退款
有些金額很大
但我不會把這件事
直接解釋成美國突然
對中國態度變好了
這一輪退款最直接
的背景是美國司法裁決
推翻了此前一部分
關稅授權
後面依法處理退款
它首先是法律結果
不是美國突然
送出來的一份禮物
為什麼這個地方
要分清楚
因為我們看國際關係
很容易把所有
對自己有利的事情
都解釋成對方服軟了
這樣講很爽
可是很容易看錯下一步
TikTok也是一樣
我覺得它真正的價值
不是證明美國被誰打服
而是證明一件
更現實的事情
當徹底封殺的成本太高
而企業又不可能
什麼都不讓的時候
中間確實可能談出
一種新的分法
美國沒有拿到
最理想的TikTok
TikTok也沒有保住
原來的所有控制權
雙方都讓了一些
可雙方也都保住了
自己最不能失去的那一塊
這種結果看起來沒有
誰徹底贏了那麼刺激
但它反而更像
真正能長期存在的規則
因為國家之間很多
穩定的邊界
就是這麼長出來的
不是因為突然互相信任
而是因為彼此都發現
再往前一步
自己也要付代價
所以回到最開始
TikTok解禁
當然是一條新聞
但幾年以後如果我們
再回頭看
真正重要的也許不是
2026年美國政府
設備上終於又能使用
TikTok
而是另外一件事
過去那道只有
兩個選項的門
賣掉或者退出
第一次被擠出了一條
真正存在的縫
生意可以繼續
但關鍵權力要重新談
不同市場可能有
不同的邊界
這條縫現在還不寬
能不能走成一條
穩定的路
也還沒有答案
可是只要它真的
存在過一次
以後面對類似事件
我們就可以少問一句
到底誰贏了
多問一句
最後誰還保留
調整自己的能力
因為真正的被動
從來不是少賺一點
也不是退一步
而是有一天局勢變了
你才發現
自己手裡已經沒有
可以重新選擇的東西了
The United States withdrew on August 10
On federal government equipment
TikTok ban
After this news came out
Many people's first objection -- very straightforward.
America Retreats
TikTok take it
China has won this time
But I put this before and after
I watched it again.
Instead feel
If the most expensive only falls
The one who won
It's a pity actually
Really worth seeing
TikTok the best
Neither sold the whole thing to the United States
He didn't quit the United States.
The solution finally negotiated by the two sides
It is to put a company in
Take apart what was originally tied together
US user data
Secure Content Governance
Including the US version
How to train the recommender system
How to update
The local system in the United States is responsible for it.
But TikTok ads
E-commerce marketing
And global products.
Connection between
They were not taken together.
ByteDance hasn't quit completely either
So this thing really emerged
Not America.
Leave TikTok alone
It's a U.S.-China technology war
The first time more clearly
And here's a third result.
The company doesn't have to be sold as a whole
But sensitive power
Can be cut out separately
Hand over to local management
People used to think
Only two buttons
Sell or quit
Now there is an extra seam in the middle.
And this seam if later
Can be copied to other companies
Meaning far more than
TikTok itself
Let's clarify the current structure first
January 2026
TikTok US operations
The new joint venture arrangement has been officially launched
ByteDance Reserved
19.9% of the shares
Oracle Silver Lake Capital
And UAE investment institutions, etc
Become a major shareholder
But let's be honest
If you only look at equity
It's very easy to misread.
Because what really matters
It's not that anyone owns a few percent of the stock
It's about who can do what.
The new US joint venture is responsible for
Data protection for US users
content security
software security
And the American version
Training of recommender system
Test and update
Oracle is responsible for
The data environment in the United States
Also participate in code review
But TikTok
Advertising in the United States
E-commerce marketing
And global product connectivity
Or stay TikTok
In the global system
So this is not
The United States TikTok
Bought the whole thing
Not TikTok
Let nothing
The two sides really exchanged
It's a different kind of power.
And then you ask.
Did the algorithm sell it?
I think this question
It's not as important as it used to be
Because we can easily put the algorithm
Think of it as a secret recipe
Whoever has the secret recipe wins
But today a recommender system
How does it really affect users?
It's not just about the technology.
It also depends on what data is used for training
Who has the right to modify it?
Who will test
Which version can be launched?
If something goes wrong, who can suspend it?
So TikTok
This time it really changed
It's us who will look at technology companies in the future
I'm afraid I can't just watch
Who owns this company?
It also depends on the company
The power to really decide things
In whose hands?
This place is clear enough
Because next
The more interesting question is
Why did America end up?
Willing to accept this arrangement
If it really feels
TikTok so dangerous
Why not just seal it to the end?
The answer is actually not that romantic
It's not that America has suddenly become friendly.
It's not because of that.
Who shouts tougher?
The most practical reason
Yes TikTok old enough
America has to calculate the cost itself
It has over 200 million users in the U.S.
There are a lot of creators.
Merchants and advertisers
Many small businesses in America
It was TikTok
Find customers to sell
If you TikTok today
Cut it off
Of course ByteDance hurts
Available to users in the United States
And merchants will also hurt.
Now that's leverage.
International negotiations include
A very realistic rule
It doesn't matter what you say
After the other party loses you
It matters how much it costs
If a Chinese app
There are only a few hundred thousand users in the U.S.
After it is blocked, it will be on the market the next day.
There are substitutes.
Why do people want to talk to you for six years?
Maybe it's over with one order
TikTok different
It's big enough to drive it away
It has also become a
Choices to be calculated
So this really gives
The first inspiration for Chinese companies
Not as long as you are tough, there will be results
But no chips
There's no point in being tough
But chips are not enough
Another place worth seeing
Yes it has a way
Disassemble your own value
What can be localized?
User data can be
Content security can
American version of the recommender system
Operation management is also available.
Which ones cannot be handed over together?
Global Business Network
product connection
Brand advertising e-commerce
Can these really continue
The ability to generate income
This place is actually a test of business
Because negotiating is the hardest
Never let go
It's about where it stops.
When people are young
It's easy to think
Taking a step back is a loss
Later, if you do it for a long time, you will find that
Sometimes it's not so scary to take a step back
The scary thing is that you don't know
What should I really keep?
The last unimportant thing
Hold on
Something really valuable
But slowly throw away
Businesses are no different.
Really get it right this time
Not necessarily.
It's holding onto everything.
But it didn't.
Put all the value in
In the same basket
A negotiation is cleared
Which brings us to the next level.
If other Chinese technologies
Companies are also facing similar pressures
Can this method be replicated?
The answer is that some can
Some don't work.
More likely
It's the Internet.
Cloud as a Service
Artificial intelligence applications
Why is it because of these industries?
Many security risks can be eliminated
For example, a Chinese company
Artificial intelligence applications to enter the United States
What is America worried about?
user data
Will it be taken back to China?
Will the model
Get US user profile training
Who can update the model?
If there is a problem, who can stop?
If the company has a way
Put these questions in isolation
US local management
Create a set of
U.S. regulators can check
System of accountability
Then there is room for discussion
The United States may not want
Take the whole company away
It can say
Business you keep doing
But the piece that worries me the most
Follow my rules
But if you replace it with an advanced chip
semiconductor equipment
Certain dual-use technologies
It's not that simple
Because what the United States is worried about may not be
Where is your data located?
You own the technology.
Will change national power
This time you
Even if the server is located in the United States
Doesn't solve the underlying problem
So TikTok real
Possible rules
Not all
Chinese technology companies
There is a third way.
It's about risk.
Can be cut into
Several specific control points
There may be a third way
This is the critical boundary.
Because if this boundary holds
Future Technology Company
There will be one more that was not available before.
Such an important ability
I call this detachable.
Not break up the company
It's that you have to be able
Separate the different risks
US user data
Can you save it separately?
Can the local team manage independently?
Can the security system be inspected?
There had been an accident.
Is there anyone locally who can handle it?
At the same time, these arrangements
Will it be the other way around?
Put your global technology
Hollow out with the business system
In the past, companies went overseas
The most important thing is to make the product
Find user
Probably not enough in the future
Your first day of product design
You have to think if one day
I want to enter the United States, Europe, the Middle East
Can this system
According to the requirements of different countries
Break it down into several parts
Some data is kept local
Some permissions remain at headquarters
Some places for people to check
But the most fundamental technical capability
Can't hand it over all at once
You will find
Going to sea is less and less like
Simply sell products
More like in different countries
Build another one.
Version of myself
The biggest consequence of this
Globalization is going to get more expensive.
Global Internet in the past
What is the most comfortable state?
A system
A backstage
A headquarters
The world runs together
Low cost and high efficiency
It may become
To America
There is a set of American data and governance
To Europe
There is also a European version
Went to other markets
Have to readjust
The brand still looks the same
It has been divided into many rooms
Each room has its own lock
This is OK for large companies.
Big companies have money
There are lawyers and a technical team
We have a security team.
We can afford local governance.
But it is difficult for small and medium-sized companies
A start-up company
The product has just been made.
Haven't made much money yet
Just make it in three countries
Three sets of compliance systems
It may not hold up at all
So TikTok
This third way.
It's not the globalization of technology.
Easier from now on
Probably the opposite.
The global market is still there
But go global
Market tickets are getting more expensive
And the more expensive the tickets are
Big companies have an advantage
That's remarkable.
We usually think
The government is mainly restricting large companies
But when supervision is so complex
To a certain extent
Instead, it may become
The moat of big companies
Because of the same set of rules
Big companies spend a year
Hundreds of millions of dollars may just be the cost.
Small companies can't afford it
You can only give up that market
So the threshold for future technological competition
Maybe it's not just technology
There is also a whole set.
Dealing with different countries
regulatory capacity
Look further
This change is actually
It's not just happening in the U.S.
China itself is also very
Familiarity with analogous logic
Apples on the Chinese mainland
Providing the Cloud as a Service
Data on Chinese users
It is necessary to follow the local rules of China.
Operating in the local system
Of course it's TikTok
Today's arrangement
Not the same thing
TikTok deeper
Except for data
There is also content
recommender system
code security
But two things.
The direction of the back is very close.
The digital age has come to this day
Governments around the world are increasingly
Not satisfied with a business sentence
Don't worry, I will protect your users.
The government will continue to ask
Where is the data?
Who can see who can change the system?
If something goes wrong, who is responsible?
So I think
The future really changes
The global technology industry
May not be a simple decoupling
It's a more troublesome condition.
Business continues to globalize
Sensitive power begins to be localized
Company or global company?
Money is still earned across borders
Users may also continue to connect
But the data.
Algorithm operation and security responsibilities
Will be more and more
Nations take it back into their own hands
It's actually more complicated than complete decoupling
Because decoupling is simple.
You go your way
I go my way
Now it is
Business still needs to be done
But I don't fully trust you
So the two sides can only draw the boundary
Where is it for you?
Where is it for me?
What can cross the border?
What can't cross borders?
This is TikTok
This thing really has
A place of long-term value
It's not proof.
The Sino-US tech war is over
Quite the contrary.
It may explain the Sino-US technology war
It is going from a very rough stage.
Enter a more detailed stage
I used to refuse to let you in
After you come in
What can be done
This is actually true for the United States itself
It's not without cost.
Many people think
The United States requires data to remain in the United States
Code for Oracle to check
Isn't that easy?
In fact, long-term supervision of a
Tech companies are better than blocking it outright
Much more trouble
Sealing is an action
Well, it happens every day.
The code is checked today.
The product will be updated tomorrow.
This month's algorithm is this version
Replaced it next month
Engineers can also change
Data structures can also change
Therefore, if the United States really
It is necessary to rely on this model for long-term management
foreign technology platform
It has to improve its own stewardship.
Someone has to understand the code
Somebody understands algorithms.
Someone can judge a company
Did you bypass the rules?
This means that both parties have to
Keep doing business and pay new costs
And this cost may be
Future global technology market
The truest look
It won't go back to the past
Unprepared Globalization
But not necessarily
Cut off completely
More and more will appear in the middle
This strange structure
We don't fully trust each other.
But we can't bear to
No business at all
So I had to lock it layer by layer
If you put this matter back in Taiwan
I think it's actually very
It's worth thinking about.
When Taiwan discusses the technology industry
It's easy to stare at one
The most intuitive thing factory
Has the factory moved?
Moved a few
How much production capacity does the United States need to build?
Of course these are important
But TikTok reminded
We have a very real problem
Look at the industry, don't just look at things
Where to move
It also depends on where the decision is moved
Such as semiconductors
Where will the next generation of technologies be developed?
Where are the most talented engineers?
Who to talk to first for big clients?
When production capacity is at its peak
Who decides to feed whom first?
Who will decide the next round of investment?
These are more than just one
The location of the plant is more important
So Taiwanese companies go to the United States to build factories
Does not represent core competencies
Gone the next day
On the contrary, the headquarters remains in Taiwan
It doesn't represent all core powers.
Forever
What you really should see
Is there any critical moment?
Room to make your own decisions
Middle age is actually easy
Understand this
Whose name is written on the house?
Of course it matters.
But a family really
Is there autonomy?
And then finally, the big things.
Who can decide the money and who can dispatch
If something goes wrong, who has a way out?
Same with industry.
Sometimes it's really dangerous
It's not that things go out a little bit.
But after the decision goes out
Never come back
So put it back in Taiwan.
The future is not really worth guarding
Nothing can be moved.
But those who lose
You will let yourself not have
Something to choose
That's why.
I don't think so yet.
In a hurry
TikTok new rules
It has been successful.
This thing is very suitable for using the I Ching
Understand the lack of help inside
Failure is not failure
It talks about things that have been
Go to the face
It looks almost done.
But the new state is not yet
Really stand firm
TikTok now
That's it.
transaction landing
ban lifted
The most dangerous stage
It seems to have passed
But this arrangement
Can it become a real rule?
I think the next step is just
Three questions are enough
Can the first one be copied?
The next Chinese technology company
Encounter similar problems
Is the United States still willing to talk?
This local governance scheme
If only TikTok
A special case
Then it's not a rule.
Can the second one continue across governments?
After a change of government in the United States
Can this approach continue?
If every time a person is changed
Just tear it all down and start over
Then it's just a political deal
Can the third one stand up to it?
Real accident
Usually when there is no problem
Any system looks good.
If it does appear in the future
Data Dispute Algorithm Dispute
security incident
Can this set of local governance be solved?
And it's not just that -- and so on.
directly ban
As long as these three levels have not been passed
You can't call it Jiji now.
At best
The third way has been taken out
But can this road be
I don't know yet
Here, by the way, is a recent one.
They're easy to put together.
Explain things
There are indeed Chinese companies recently
Receive a refund for US tariffs
Some are very large.
But I won't take this
Directly explained as America suddenly
Attitude towards China has improved
This round of refunds is the most direct.
The background is the US judicial ruling
Overturned the previous part
Tariff authorization
The refund will be processed according to law later.
It is first and foremost a legal consequence
Not America suddenly
A gift
Why is this place?
Be clear
Because we look at international relations
It's easy to put all
Things that are good for you
It is explained that the other party has softened
It's cool to say
But it's easy to miss the next step
TikTok the same
I think its true value
Not to prove that America was defeated by anyone
But to prove one thing
Something more realistic
When the cost of a complete ban is too high
And companies can't
When you don't let anything
It is indeed possible to negotiate in the middle
A new method of partitioning
The United States did not get it.
The ideal TikTok
TikTok didn't survive
All original control
Both sides made some concessions
But both sides survived.
The one you can't afford to lose the most.
This result doesn't look like
Who won so thoroughly?
But it's more like
The rules that really last.
Because there are many countries
Stable border
That's how it grows.
Not because of sudden mutual trust
But because they both found each other
One step further
You have to pay the price
So back to the beginning
TikTok ban
Of course it's news.
But in a few years, if we
Look back
What really matters may not be
2026 US government
Finally working again on the device
It was something else.
In the past, only
Door with two options
Sell or quit
I was squeezed out for the first time
Real seam
Business can continue
But key powers need to be renegotiated
Different markets may have
Different boundaries
The seam is not wide yet
Can you walk in one line?
A stable path
No answer yet
But as long as it really
Existed once
Facing similar incidents in the future
We can ask one less question
Who won?
Ask more
Who will keep it in the end?
Adjust your abilities
Because true passivity
Never earn less
It's not taking a step back.
But one day the situation changed
You just found out
I don't have it anymore.
Something to choose again