{
  "text": "7月底,美日聯合聲明要干涉日圓的匯率。日圓的匯率從1美元最低的時候兌164日元,在短短幾小時內急升到1美元兌156日元。在這個已經發生的事實基礎之上,這波日圓反彈到底會不會延續呢?\n假如你看過我以前的影片,應該會認同,稱呼我一聲日幣空軍大統領,毫不為過。\n去年4月日圓已經經歷了三年多的連續下跌\n一路從1美金對110日圓下跌到去年4月\n1美金對145日圓左右的水平\n當時市場的普遍情緒是日圓已經跌得夠深而且夠久了\n差不多應該要觸底反彈了\n我当时做了一支影片跟大家分享\n日元有結構性的弱點必定會繼續下跌\n去年12月市场普遍预期\n日本的中央銀行日銀將要在12月把日圓的利率升息一碼\n当时市场的普遍情绪是\n日元升息會引發日圓升值\n进而引发一连串的金融动荡\n當時我也在日銀公布新的利率前期\n发了一支影片\n说日元的结构性问题\n並不會因為升息一碼就被逆轉\n日元升息一马带来的影响将会非常有限\n到了今年4月\n日銀看不下去日圓一路走扁\n投入外汇存底\n借入日圓的匯率\n讓日圓的匯率從1比160美金\n急升到1比157\n當時市場又在關注這一次的出手干預\n會不會造成日圓就此走揚\n我当时依然又发了一支影片\n跟大家說日圓的結構性問題還是沒有被改變\n而且日銀手上的銀彈是有限的\n日銀手上的子彈\n注意造成日圓匯率的短期波動\n但是無法長期逆轉日圓匯率走扁的問題\n我不是一个喜欢自吹自擂的人\n但是回头看我自己的分析\n我也觉得只有一个字就是准\n这一年多的时间日币汇率固然起起伏伏\n但到今天为止\n但到今天為止\n而且我也不是指上談兵\n嘴巴上說日幣會跌自己卻無動於衷\n到了今天為止\n我的盈透證券帳戶上\n有大約1600萬日幣的空頭部位\n這個影片我就想要討論\n7月底每日聯合聲明要干預日幣匯率這件事情\n長遠來說到底會造成多深遠的影響\n更重要的是我需不需要為了這件事\n去把我的空頭部位平掉\n我可以先从结论开始分享\n我认为日币确实有可能到底了\n再往下空间可能不大了\n但是要说日币可以就此强势\n在可预见的未来\n几率也微乎其微\n我绝对不是见风使舵\n看最近日币升了一波\n就说日币再往下的空间不大了\n以前美金比日币1比140几的时候\n我跟大家说还会再跌\n在1比150几\n大家觉得不会破160的时候\n我也跟大家说还会再跌\n不过这次我真的觉得\n可能到底了\n不会再跌了\n要聊为什么我觉得已经到底了\n我们就必须先聊\n为什么过去四五年日币不断下跌\n这中间当然牵涉了非常多因素\n但是最根本最根本的原因\n就是美日之间一直存在着巨大的利差\n巨大的利差给国际资金足够的诱因\n去放空日元做多美元\n到今天这个当下为止\n日元的政策利率是1%\n美元的政策利率是3.5%\n到今天为止\n两者依然存在着2.5%的利差\n那在过往几年\n情况比较严峻的时候\n这个利差甚至一度到4%\n巨額的利差就一直給國際的套利資金\n足夠的誘因去放空日圓\n做多美元\n這是造成日圓不斷下跌的諸多因素中\n最重要最重要的因素\n那要解决利差的问题\n逻辑上就只有两个方法\n一个是日元升息\n另外一个就是美元降息\n那美元是要升息還是降息\n真的是完全輪不到日本插嘴\n美國聯準會也不可能因為日本的形勢\n去调整美元的利率\n日本想要解决利差的问题\n基本上是不可能指望美国的\n只能靠自己处理\n也就是只剩一条路\n让日元升息\n理论上日本的中央银行\n可以自主决定日元的利率\n可是日本有一個有口難言的難題\n日本的债务跟GDP比\n在这个当下是260%\n也就是日本的债务是GDP的2.6倍\n是全世界負債第二嚴重的國家\n更是負債最嚴重的已開發國家\n这个沉重的债务枷锁\n让日本没有空间大幅升息\n因为一旦日元升息了\n日本政府的债务负担也会随之上升\n那顺带一提\n在8月10號剛公布的最新資訊裡面\n日本國的債務又創新高了\n日本目前的債務已經達到史上最高的程度\n那因為日本政府沉重的財務負擔\n虽然日本的央行理论上可以自由调整利率\n但是實務上卻綁手綁腳\n难以自由伸展\n我们可以说利差是根本问题\n是火苗\n而日本政府的财务负担\n就是加在这个火苗上的薪柴\n让问题变得更加严重\n长期来说要改变日币的汇率问题\n就是要缩小美日之间的利差\n更精确的说就是要让日元大幅升息\n在这次美日联合声明之前\n我自己判断\n考虑到汇率风险\n交易成本\n还有为了做套利交易而产生的避险成本\n假设把这些成本考虑进去\n当利差缩小到2%左右的时候\n新的资金要再继续投入日元的套利交易\n诱因可能就不太够了\n也就是说利差到2%左右的时候\n目前已经投入在做套利交易的资金\n可能不会急着撤出\n但是新资金可能也不会再继续积极投入了\n那这个时候日币的跌势可能就可以暂缓了\n假设利差进一步缩小到1%\n考虑到上述的各项成本\n可能连已经在做套利交易的资金\n都会撤出日元的套利交易\n把资金转移去资金效率更高的投资部位\n日元的套利交易就是放空日元做多美元\n那假如要撤出日元的套利交易\n就是要买回日元卖出美元\n这些日元的空头部位回补相对的就是在做多日元\n这时候日币可能就会开始升值了\n总结来说我自己认为日币止跌的关键\n是利差缩小到2%以内\n要开始回升的关键是利差缩小到1%以内\n不过利率是长期性的问题\n美日联手干预汇率要短期见效\n他们手上有三样武器\n第一个是日本自己的外汇储备\n第二个是美国的外汇平准基金\n美国可以动用这笔基金为日本调整汇率\n第三样武器就是美日联手声明\n对市场造成的预期心理\n我们先聊第一样\n日本的外汇储备\n日本的外汇储备大约是190兆日元\n我们可以对比目前在做套利交易的全球总资金\n来了解一下190兆日币是什么概念\n因为做套利交易的人很多是透过衍生性商品\n衍生性商品不像现货一样简单直白\n通常是被包的一层又一层错综复杂\n所以目前没有任何一个机构可以精准的追踪\n全球做空日币的资金的总规模是多少\n但是根据各种侧面推测\n目前全世界的日元套利交易的总规模\n大约是400兆日元\n首先,日銀完全沒有理由要為了救匯率把自己的外匯存體賣光。\n其次,就算日銀真的失心瘋,即便賣光外匯存底也要跟這些空軍一決死戰,\n一決死戰\n那190兆跟400兆這個實力還是太懸殊了\n很多人在討論這件事情的時候會提到\n美國提供日本FEMA回購機制\n透過這個機制日本不用賣掉手上持有的美債\n可以把自己手上持有的美債拿去跟美國政府抵押\n藉由抵押手上的美債取得美元現金\n再用這些美元現金來救日幣的匯率\n但這個FEMA回購機制其實完全沒有辦法改變大局\n日本的外匯存底本來就有很大一部分是美債\n那日本是把这些美债拿去卖掉也好\n拿去抵押也好\n反正日銀倾家荡产\n手上的银蛋总共就是190兆日元\n而且事实上FEMA这个机制\n并不是说你有100元的美债\n它就借你100元的美金\n它中间有个折价率\n100元的美债最后可能只能借出97、98美元\n所以日本真的去动用这个FEMA回购机制的话\n日本能动用的钱可能还更少\n这个FEMA回购机制唯一的好处\n就是让日本可以不用卖掉手上的美债\n就筹措到资金\n进而避免造成美债的价格波动\n那这边也延伸聊一下\n网路上很多人都在说\n这是美国要出手救日币的汇率\n是因为担心日本抛售手上的美债\n那这个其实是言过其实啦\n日本确实是美债最大的外国持有人\n但日本手上的美债占美债总发行量\n大约就是3%\n先不说日本没有任何诱因跟理由\n要把自己手上的美债一口气卖光\n即便日本真的施信用一口气把手上全部的美债卖光好了\n你说这个3%的持有量\n一口气卖光对市场肯定会造成影响\n这个无庸置疑\n但要造成什么毁灭性的打击\n大概也不至于\n所以老实说我觉得那些高谈阔论\n说美国这次要出手救日币\n是为了要救自己的美债的论点\n是完全言过其实啊\n那我们接着就来聊美日联盟的第二项武器\n美国的外汇平准基金\n美国可以动用这个外汇平准基金\n适度的调节汇率\n不过这个外汇平准基金的资金规模\n跟日本的外汇存底比起来实在小得可怜\n今年美国国会已经授权\n这个外汇平准基金可以调用的资金\n大约是6兆日币\n这6兆日币的资金\n放在400兆日元的空头部位面前\n根本就是塞个牙缝而已\n那我们把美国外汇存底基金的6兆日元\n跟日本的外汇存底190兆日元\n一起加起来\n总共就196兆\n要跟全球做空日币的400兆资金对抗\n仍然是力不从心\n逻辑上\n美日做多日元联盟\n跟日元的空军联盟正面硬干的话\n美日联盟是毫无胜算\n连幻想一下自己有可能赢都是奢侈\n但这就延伸出我们要聊的第三个武器\n也就是美国日本这两个大庄家\n联合声明对市场造成的影响\n上国时代诸侯组成讨伐董卓联盟\n诸侯的力量加在一起虽然大过董卓\n但是诸侯各个心怀鬼胎\n都想要让别人先上\n自己等着收割\n因为不够团结\n加总起来的力量明明比较大\n最后却分崩离析\n让董卓继续逍遥人间\n我们套用到现在的情势\n美日联盟就好像是董卓\n散落在全球各地的日元套利交易资金\n就好像是讨伐董卓联盟\n实际上做空日元资金是比较强的\n但他们并不是一块完整的铁板\n而是坐落在美国、英国、台湾的各家独立的对冲基金\n他们不但不是团结一心的合作伙伴\n甚至彼此之间还是竞争对手\n因此可能就会有人担心自己隔壁的空头盟友脚底抹油跑路\n那与其担心别人脚底抹油跑路\n不如我自己先跑\n假如引发这种效应就有可能造成空头之间的彼此踩踏\n大家争相回补自己的日元空头部位\n进而造成日元在短期内大幅升值\n美日刚公布联合声明的那几天确实有这个迹象\n当时日币汇率在短短几小时内爆升\n但是现在也过了十来天了\n看起来空头联盟也渐渐稳住阵脚\n空军开始明白\n只要空头自己稳住阵脚\n美日联盟是拿我们没辙的\n所以目前日元的汇率大概就在\n一美金比157日元左右徘徊\n并没有进一步升值\n美日联合声明的短期影响\n看起来就到此为止了\n就是让日币的汇率升值到\n一美金比157日元左右\n接下来我们要讨论的\n就是这件事能不能造成更深远的影响\n我自己认为更深远的影响还是有的\n我刚刚有提到\n我覺得美日之間的利率\n假如缩小到2%左右\n因为已经没有足够的诱因\n让新的资金再投入到日币的套利交易\n日币应该会止跌了\n假如利差进一步缩小到1%\n那可能连既有的资金\n都会开始主动撤出\n2%跟1%这个数字\n在美日兩個大莊家出面聲明之後\n理论上都会微幅往上调\n因为理性的数字是一回事\n大家看到大庄家出来喊话了\n心里多少也会怕\n多少要给大专家一点尊重\n可能就会想要把安全边际抓得更高\n安全边际到底是多少没有人说得准\n但我自己凭感觉说的话\n觉得0.5%是个差不多的数字\n也就是说日币止跌跟日币开始回升的利差\n可能分别会从2%跟1%\n上调到2.5%跟1.5%\n目前日币的政策利率是1%\n美元的政策利率是3.5%\n两者之间的利差刚好就是2.5%\n因此我认为考虑到安全边际后\n目前的利差可能已经让新的资金\n没有足够的诱因再继续投入日元的套利交易\n那日币什么时候会开始回升呢?\n市場普遍預期今年美國跟日本都還會陸續升息\n假設兩者升息的頻率跟幅度是一致的話\n2.5%这个利差就不会缩小\n必須要日元升息的比美國還快\n利差才会缩小\n假如我们再往更细节看\n其实根据过往的研究\n美元的利息影響又比日元的利息影響還大\n这背后的逻辑可能是金融市场普遍还是觉得\n美元相较于日元是更有价值的货币\n所以一樣是升息一碼的話\n市场会觉得美元的分量比较重一点\n这个意思就是说\n即便接下来两国升息的频率都是一样的\n因為美金的分量比較重\n日幣可能還是持續走貶\n並不會因為利差被鎖定\n汇率就也跟着锁定\n在利差不变的前提下\n日幣可能還是長期走貶的機率比較高\n日元真的要完全摆脱向下螺旋\n就是要升息的比美國還快還狠\n但这又牵涉到我们刚刚提到的\n日本因为自己沉重的财务负担\n升息起來是綁手綁腳\n综合以上所有的分析\n我認為接下來日幣要強升\n推力是不存在的\n反而是過去幾年日幣持續緩貶的因素\n虽然得到缓解\n但并没有被根本性的解决\n现在跟过往几年状况不一样的地方是\n虽然缓跌的因素没有被完全消除\n日幣的匯率卻得到美國跟日本兩個大莊家的公開支持\n空軍氣焰再囂張\n也要看看大庄家的脸色\n更重要的是日元的套利交易者\n對於日元的套利交易需要提供的利差\n期望会上升\n以前只要有2%的利差\n套利交易者就有誘因持續投入套利交易\n現在因為大莊家出面干涉了\n套利交易者預期跟大莊家對著干\n需要承受更多風險\n所以提供的利差沒有2.5%的話\n他們就不干了\n我認為利差預期的上升\n是真正有效幫助日幣止跌的因素\n也因為利差預期的上升\n日幣要再往下跌\n空間可能也真的不大了\n結論來說\n我認為接下來半年到一年的時間\n日幣的匯率大概會在\n1美金比157日圓到\n1美金比163日圓之間徘徊\n也因為目前日幣看起來沒有極深的風險\n我不打算積極處置\n我目前手上的日幣空頭部位\n我目前不會再新增日幣的空頭部位\n但手上已經持有的也不急著處分\n可能就之後日幣有繼續往下探\n比如說回到160左右的時侯\n就多少回補一點吧\n日幣匯率開始區間徘徊\n不再像以前一樣喋喋不休\n這當然會影響到日本以出口業為首的特定產業\n但是對日本的整體經濟應該是好事\n作為一個在日本生活的人\n我是正面看待這件事情\n假設你認同我的看法\n覺得日幣在接下來半年到一年間\n可能就在這個區間徘徊\n不會再大幅震盪\n而且日幣的匯率趨於穩定\n對於日本的整體經濟是好事的話\n那接下來日幣假如又往下修正\n比如說又回到1比160左右的時侯\n換一些日幣\n進場投資日本的資產\n或許是個不錯的投資抉擇\n以上就是這個影片的所有內容\n感謝你的觀看\n祝你身體健康\n投資順利",
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      "text": "7月底,美日聯合聲明要干涉日圓的匯率。日圓的匯率從1美元最低的時候兌164日元,在短短幾小時內急升到1美元兌156日元。在這個已經發生的事實基礎之上,這波日圓反彈到底會不會延續呢?",
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      "text_original": "7月底,美日聯合聲明要干涉日幣的匯率。日幣的匯率從1美元最低的時候兌164日元,在短短幾小時內急升到1美元兌156日元。在這個已經發生的事實基礎之上,這波日幣反彈到底會不會延續呢?",
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      "text": "假如你看過我以前的影片,應該會認同,稱呼我一聲日幣空軍大統領,毫不為過。",
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      "text": "去年4月日圓已經經歷了三年多的連續下跌",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4125412541254125,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "去年4月日币已经经历了三年多的连续下跌",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 27.46,
      "end": 31.2,
      "text": "一路從1美金對110日圓下跌到去年4月",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4125412541254125,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "一路从1美金对110日币下跌到去年4月",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 31.2,
      "end": 33.96,
      "text": "1美金對145日圓左右的水平",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4125412541254125,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "1美金对145日币左右的水平",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 33.96,
      "end": 38.36,
      "text": "當時市場的普遍情緒是日圓已經跌得夠深而且夠久了",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4125412541254125,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "当时市场的普遍情绪是日币已经跌得够深而且够久了",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 38.36,
      "end": 40.34,
      "text": "差不多應該要觸底反彈了",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "差不多应该要触底反弹了",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 40.34,
      "end": 42.6,
      "text": "我当时做了一支影片跟大家分享",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 42.6,
      "end": 45.78,
      "text": "日元有結構性的弱點必定會繼續下跌",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "日元有结构性的弱点必定会继续下跌",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 45.78,
      "end": 47.92,
      "text": "去年12月市场普遍预期",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2695750700730812e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4125412541254125,
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    },
    {
      "start": 47.92,
      "end": 52.54,
      "text": "日本的中央銀行日銀將要在12月把日圓的利率升息一碼",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07040203197582348,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "日本的中央银行日盈将要在12月把日币的利率升息一码",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 52.54,
      "end": 54.5,
      "text": "当时市场的普遍情绪是",
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    },
    {
      "start": 54.5,
      "end": 56.98,
      "text": "日元升息會引發日圓升值",
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      "text_original": "日元升息会引发日元升值",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 56.98,
      "end": 59.52,
      "text": "进而引发一连串的金融动荡",
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      "no_speech_prob": 9.002469776586697e-12,
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    },
    {
      "start": 59.52,
      "end": 62.3,
      "text": "當時我也在日銀公布新的利率前期",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "我当时也在日盈公布新的利率前期",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 62.3,
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      "text": "发了一支影片",
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    },
    {
      "start": 63.3,
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      "text": "说日元的结构性问题",
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    },
    {
      "start": 65.08,
      "end": 67.58,
      "text": "並不會因為升息一碼就被逆轉",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "并不会因为升息一马就被逆转",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 67.58,
      "end": 70.7,
      "text": "日元升息一马带来的影响将会非常有限",
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    {
      "start": 70.7,
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      "text": "到了今年4月",
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    },
    {
      "start": 72.06,
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      "text": "日銀看不下去日圓一路走扁",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "text_original": "日盈看不下去日币一路走扁",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 74.32,
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      "text": "投入外汇存底",
      "chunk": 0,
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    },
    {
      "start": 75.52,
      "end": 76.94,
      "text": "借入日圓的匯率",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "借入日币的汇率",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 76.94,
      "end": 79.98,
      "text": "讓日圓的匯率從1比160美金",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08869415935985545,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "让日币的汇率从1比160美金",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 79.98,
      "end": 81.94,
      "text": "急升到1比157",
      "chunk": 0,
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    },
    {
      "start": 81.94,
      "end": 84.86,
      "text": "當時市場又在關注這一次的出手干預",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07748169422149659,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.4328226972948332e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "当时市场又在关注这一次的出手干预",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 84.86,
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      "text": "會不會造成日圓就此走揚",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "会不会造成日币就此走扬",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 86.98,
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      "text": "我当时依然又发了一支影片",
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    },
    {
      "start": 89.2,
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      "text": "跟大家說日圓的結構性問題還是沒有被改變",
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      "language": "zh",
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      "text_original": "跟大家说日币的结构性问题还是没有被改变",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 93.0,
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      "text": "而且日銀手上的銀彈是有限的",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "而且日盈手上的银弹是有限的",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 95.08,
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      "text": "日銀手上的子彈",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "日盈手上的子弹",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 96.08,
      "end": 98.24,
      "text": "注意造成日圓匯率的短期波動",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "注意造成日币汇率的短期波动",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 98.24,
      "end": 101.7,
      "text": "但是無法長期逆轉日圓匯率走扁的問題",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.4328226972948332e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "但是无法长期逆转日币汇率走扁的问题",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 101.7,
      "end": 103.78,
      "text": "我不是一个喜欢自吹自擂的人",
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    },
    {
      "start": 103.78,
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      "text": "但是回头看我自己的分析",
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    },
    {
      "start": 105.5,
      "end": 107.36,
      "text": "我也觉得只有一个字就是准",
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    },
    {
      "start": 107.36,
      "end": 110.34,
      "text": "这一年多的时间日币汇率固然起起伏伏",
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    },
    {
      "start": 110.34,
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      "text": "但到今天为止",
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    },
    {
      "start": 111.56,
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      "text": "但到今天為止",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "往下的大趋势是非常明確的",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 114.1,
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      "text": "而且我也不是指上談兵",
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    },
    {
      "start": 115.76,
      "end": 118.52,
      "text": "嘴巴上說日幣會跌自己卻無動於衷",
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    {
      "start": 118.52,
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      "text": "到了今天為止",
      "chunk": 0,
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    },
    {
      "start": 119.54,
      "end": 121.66,
      "text": "我的盈透證券帳戶上",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.13058907130979142,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2955422325211519e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.288888888888889,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "我的IB迎頭證券帳戶上",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 121.66,
      "end": 124.7,
      "text": "有大約1600萬日幣的空頭部位",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2955422325211519e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 124.7,
      "end": 129.6,
      "text": "這個影片我就想要討論",
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    },
    {
      "start": 129.6,
      "end": 133.06,
      "text": "7月底每日聯合聲明要干預日幣匯率這件事情",
      "chunk": 0,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2955422325211519e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.288888888888889,
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    },
    {
      "start": 133.06,
      "end": 136.06,
      "text": "長遠來說到底會造成多深遠的影響",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2955422325211519e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 136.06,
      "end": 138.48,
      "text": "更重要的是我需不需要為了這件事",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2955422325211519e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 138.48,
      "end": 140.66,
      "text": "去把我的空頭部位平掉",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2955422325211519e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "去把我的空頭部位平常掉",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 140.66,
      "end": 142.4,
      "text": "我可以先从结论开始分享",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4865771812080537,
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      "text": "我认为日币确实有可能到底了",
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      "text": "再往下空间可能不大了",
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    {
      "start": 146.74,
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      "text": "但是要说日币可以就此强势",
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      "text_original": "但是要说日币可以就此强生",
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    {
      "start": 149.16,
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      "text": "在可预见的未来",
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    {
      "start": 150.5,
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      "text": "几率也微乎其微",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "几率也为乎其为",
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      "start": 151.9,
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      "text": "我绝对不是见风使舵",
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      "start": 153.48,
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      "text": "看最近日币升了一波",
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      "start": 154.96,
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      "text": "就说日币再往下的空间不大了",
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    {
      "start": 157.08,
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      "text": "以前美金比日币1比140几的时候",
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    {
      "start": 159.74,
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      "text": "我跟大家说还会再跌",
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      "start": 161.16,
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      "text": "在1比150几",
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    {
      "start": 162.78,
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      "text": "大家觉得不会破160的时候",
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      "start": 164.7,
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      "text": "我也跟大家说还会再跌",
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    {
      "start": 166.82,
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      "text": "不过这次我真的觉得",
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    {
      "start": 168.44,
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      "text": "可能到底了",
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      "start": 169.68,
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      "text": "不会再跌了",
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      "start": 170.72,
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      "text": "要聊为什么我觉得已经到底了",
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    {
      "start": 176.16,
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      "text": "我们就必须先聊",
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      "start": 177.2,
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      "text": "为什么过去四五年日币不断下跌",
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      "start": 179.68,
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      "text": "这中间当然牵涉了非常多因素",
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      "start": 182.14,
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      "text": "但是最根本最根本的原因",
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      "start": 184.2,
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      "text": "就是美日之间一直存在着巨大的利差",
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      "start": 187.24,
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      "text": "巨大的利差给国际资金足够的诱因",
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      "start": 190.08,
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      "text": "去放空日元做多美元",
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      "start": 191.92,
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      "text": "到今天这个当下为止",
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      "start": 193.78,
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      "text": "日元的政策利率是1%",
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      "start": 195.94,
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      "text": "美元的政策利率是3.5%",
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    {
      "start": 198.7,
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      "text": "到今天为止",
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      "start": 199.48,
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      "text": "两者依然存在着2.5%的利差",
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    {
      "start": 202.16,
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      "text": "那在过往几年",
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      "start": 203.62,
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      "text": "情况比较严峻的时候",
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      "start": 204.98,
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      "text": "这个利差甚至一度到4%",
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      "start": 207.3,
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      "text": "巨額的利差就一直給國際的套利資金",
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      "text_original": "巨额的利差就一直给国际的套利资金",
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      "start": 209.82,
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      "text": "足夠的誘因去放空日圓",
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      "text_original": "足够的诱因去放空日元",
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      "text": "做多美元",
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      "text": "這是造成日圓不斷下跌的諸多因素中",
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      "text_original": "这是造成日元不断下跌的诸多因素中",
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      "text": "最重要最重要的因素",
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      "text": "那要解决利差的问题",
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      "text": "逻辑上就只有两个方法",
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      "text": "一个是日元升息",
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      "text": "另外一个就是美元降息",
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      "text": "那美元是要升息還是降息",
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      "text_original": "那美元是要升息还是降息",
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      "start": 225.54,
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      "text": "真的是完全輪不到日本插嘴",
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      "text_original": "真的是完全轮不到日本插嘴",
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      "text": "美國聯準會也不可能因為日本的形勢",
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      "text_original": "美国联准会也不可能因为日本的情势",
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    {
      "start": 230.06,
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      "text": "去调整美元的利率",
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      "text": "日本想要解决利差的问题",
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      "start": 233.28,
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      "text": "基本上是不可能指望美国的",
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    {
      "start": 235.26,
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      "text": "只能靠自己处理",
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    {
      "start": 236.34,
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      "text": "也就是只剩一条路",
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      "start": 237.66,
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      "text": "让日元升息",
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      "start": 238.78,
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      "text": "理论上日本的中央银行",
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      "start": 240.52,
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      "text": "可以自主决定日元的利率",
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    {
      "start": 242.22,
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      "text": "可是日本有一個有口難言的難題",
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      "text_original": "可是日本国有一个有口说不出的难言",
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      "start": 244.94,
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      "text": "日本的债务跟GDP比",
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      "text": "在这个当下是260%",
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      "text": "也就是日本的债务是GDP的2.6倍",
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    {
      "start": 251.68,
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      "text": "是全世界負債第二嚴重的國家",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "text_original": "是全世界负债第二严重的国家",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 254.38,
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      "text": "更是負債最嚴重的已開發國家",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.06222716032289991,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "更是负债最严重的已开发国家",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 257.0,
      "end": 258.6,
      "text": "这个沉重的债务枷锁",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "start": 258.6,
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      "text": "让日本没有空间大幅升息",
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    {
      "start": 260.84,
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      "text": "因为一旦日元升息了",
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    {
      "start": 262.58,
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      "text": "日本政府的债务负担也会随之上升",
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    {
      "start": 265.16,
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      "text": "那顺带一提",
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    },
    {
      "start": 266.06,
      "end": 268.96,
      "text": "在8月10號剛公布的最新資訊裡面",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "在8月10号刚公布的最新资讯里面",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 268.96,
      "end": 271.1,
      "text": "日本國的債務又創新高了",
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      "text_original": "日本国的债务又创新高了",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 271.1,
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      "text": "日本目前的債務已經達到史上最高的程度",
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      "text_original": "日本目前的债务已经达到史上最高的程度",
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      "start": 274.9,
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      "text": "那因為日本政府沉重的財務負擔",
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      "text_original": "那因为日本政府沉重的财务负担",
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      "text": "虽然日本的央行理论上可以自由调整利率",
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      "start": 280.6,
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      "text": "但是實務上卻綁手綁腳",
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      "text_original": "但是实务上却绑手绑脚",
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      "start": 282.7,
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      "text": "难以自由伸展",
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      "start": 283.94,
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      "text": "我们可以说利差是根本问题",
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      "start": 286.2,
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      "text": "是火苗",
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      "start": 287.02,
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      "text": "而日本政府的财务负担",
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      "start": 288.82,
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      "text": "就是加在这个火苗上的薪柴",
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      "text_original": "就是加在这个火苗上的新财",
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      "start": 290.96,
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      "text": "让问题变得更加严重",
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    {
      "start": 292.74,
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      "text": "长期来说要改变日币的汇率问题",
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      "text": "就是要缩小美日之间的利差",
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      "start": 297.1,
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      "text": "更精确的说就是要让日元大幅升息",
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      "start": 300.02,
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      "text": "在这次美日联合声明之前",
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      "start": 301.96,
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      "text": "我自己判断",
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      "start": 302.86,
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      "text": "考虑到汇率风险",
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    {
      "start": 304.3,
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      "text": "交易成本",
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    {
      "start": 305.26,
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      "text": "还有为了做套利交易而产生的避险成本",
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      "start": 308.06,
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      "text": "假设把这些成本考虑进去",
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    {
      "start": 309.88,
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      "text": "当利差缩小到2%左右的时候",
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    {
      "start": 312.36,
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      "text": "新的资金要再继续投入日元的套利交易",
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      "start": 315.54,
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      "text": "诱因可能就不太够了",
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      "start": 317.14,
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      "text": "也就是说利差到2%左右的时候",
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    {
      "start": 319.62,
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      "text": "目前已经投入在做套利交易的资金",
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    {
      "start": 322.36,
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      "text": "可能不会急着撤出",
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      "start": 323.74,
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      "text": "但是新资金可能也不会再继续积极投入了",
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    {
      "start": 327.38,
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      "text": "那这个时候日币的跌势可能就可以暂缓了",
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    },
    {
      "start": 330.56,
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      "text": "假设利差进一步缩小到1%",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0866028563039087e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 333.48,
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      "text": "考虑到上述的各项成本",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07259915669759115,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0866028563039087e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 335.04,
      "end": 337.48,
      "text": "可能连已经在做套利交易的资金",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0866028563039087e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 337.48,
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      "text": "都会撤出日元的套利交易",
      "chunk": 0,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0866028563039087e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 339.4,
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      "text": "把资金转移去资金效率更高的投资部位",
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    {
      "start": 342.94,
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      "text": "日元的套利交易就是放空日元做多美元",
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      "start": 346.06,
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      "text": "那假如要撤出日元的套利交易",
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      "no_speech_prob": 9.075373265388098e-12,
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      "start": 348.4,
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      "text": "就是要买回日元卖出美元",
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      "start": 350.76,
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      "text": "这些日元的空头部位回补相对的就是在做多日元",
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      "start": 354.54,
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      "text": "这时候日币可能就会开始升值了",
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      "start": 357.42,
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      "text": "总结来说我自己认为日币止跌的关键",
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    {
      "start": 360.62,
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      "text": "是利差缩小到2%以内",
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      "start": 362.88,
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      "text": "要开始回升的关键是利差缩小到1%以内",
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    {
      "start": 369.4,
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      "text": "不过利率是长期性的问题",
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    {
      "start": 372.04,
      "end": 374.54,
      "text": "美日联手干预汇率要短期见效",
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    {
      "start": 374.54,
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      "text": "他们手上有三样武器",
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    {
      "start": 376.14,
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      "text": "第一个是日本自己的外汇储备",
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    {
      "start": 378.36,
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      "text": "第二个是美国的外汇平准基金",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "第二个是美国的外汇凭准基金",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 380.9,
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      "text": "美国可以动用这笔基金为日本调整汇率",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "美国可以动用这笔基金为伏调整汇率",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 383.84,
      "end": 386.66,
      "text": "第三样武器就是美日联手声明",
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    },
    {
      "start": 386.66,
      "end": 388.54,
      "text": "对市场造成的预期心理",
      "chunk": 0,
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    {
      "start": 388.54,
      "end": 389.62,
      "text": "我们先聊第一样",
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    {
      "start": 389.62,
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      "text": "日本的外汇储备",
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    {
      "start": 390.96,
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      "text": "日本的外汇储备大约是190兆日元",
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    },
    {
      "start": 393.74,
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      "text": "我们可以对比目前在做套利交易的全球总资金",
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    {
      "start": 397.18,
      "end": 400.14,
      "text": "来了解一下190兆日币是什么概念",
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    {
      "start": 400.14,
      "end": 403.3,
      "text": "因为做套利交易的人很多是透过衍生性商品",
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      "start": 403.3,
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      "text": "衍生性商品不像现货一样简单直白",
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      "start": 406.12,
      "end": 408.82,
      "text": "通常是被包的一层又一层错综复杂",
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      "start": 408.82,
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      "text": "所以目前没有任何一个机构可以精准的追踪",
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      "start": 411.46,
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      "text": "全球做空日币的资金的总规模是多少",
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    {
      "start": 414.84,
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      "text": "但是根据各种侧面推测",
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      "start": 416.76,
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      "text": "目前全世界的日元套利交易的总规模",
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      "start": 419.94,
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      "text": "大约是400兆日元",
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      "text": "首先,日銀完全沒有理由要為了救匯率把自己的外匯存體賣光。",
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      "text_original": "首先,日銀完全沒有理由要為了救惠率把自己的外匯存體賣光。",
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      "text": "其次,就算日銀真的失心瘋,即便賣光外匯存底也要跟這些空軍一決死戰,",
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      "text_original": "其次,就算日銀真的失心瘋,即便賣光外匯存體也要跟這些空軍一絕死戰,",
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      "text": "一決死戰",
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      "start": 433.507,
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      "text": "那190兆跟400兆這個實力還是太懸殊了",
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      "start": 437.507,
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      "text": "很多人在討論這件事情的時候會提到",
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      "start": 439.507,
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      "text": "美國提供日本FEMA回購機制",
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      "text": "透過這個機制日本不用賣掉手上持有的美債",
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      "text": "可以把自己手上持有的美債拿去跟美國政府抵押",
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      "text": "藉由抵押手上的美債取得美元現金",
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      "start": 452.507,
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      "text": "再用這些美元現金來救日幣的匯率",
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      "text": "但這個FEMA回購機制其實完全沒有辦法改變大局",
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      "text": "日本的外匯存底本來就有很大一部分是美債",
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      "text_original": "日本的外匯存體本來就有很大一部分是美債",
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      "text": "那日本是把这些美债拿去卖掉也好",
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      "text": "拿去抵押也好",
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      "start": 465.827,
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      "text": "反正日銀倾家荡产",
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      "text_original": "反正日营倾家荡产",
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      "text": "手上的银蛋总共就是190兆日元",
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      "text": "而且事实上FEMA这个机制",
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      "start": 472.467,
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      "text": "并不是说你有100元的美债",
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      "start": 474.407,
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      "text": "它就借你100元的美金",
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      "start": 476.187,
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      "text": "它中间有个折价率",
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      "start": 477.547,
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      "text": "100元的美债最后可能只能借出97、98美元",
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    {
      "start": 481.187,
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      "text": "所以日本真的去动用这个FEMA回购机制的话",
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      "start": 484.467,
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      "text": "日本能动用的钱可能还更少",
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      "text": "这个FEMA回购机制唯一的好处",
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      "text": "就是让日本可以不用卖掉手上的美债",
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    {
      "start": 491.527,
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      "text": "就筹措到资金",
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      "text_original": "就筹错到资金",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 492.947,
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      "text": "进而避免造成美债的价格波动",
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      "start": 495.427,
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      "text": "那这边也延伸聊一下",
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    {
      "start": 496.907,
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      "text": "网路上很多人都在说",
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    {
      "start": 498.267,
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      "text": "这是美国要出手救日币的汇率",
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      "start": 500.507,
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      "text": "是因为担心日本抛售手上的美债",
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      "start": 503.267,
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      "text": "那这个其实是言过其实啦",
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    {
      "start": 505.587,
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      "text": "日本确实是美债最大的外国持有人",
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    {
      "start": 508.407,
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      "text": "但日本手上的美债占美债总发行量",
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      "start": 511.487,
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      "text": "大约就是3%",
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    {
      "start": 512.747,
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      "text": "先不说日本没有任何诱因跟理由",
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      "start": 515.327,
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      "text": "要把自己手上的美债一口气卖光",
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      "text": "即便日本真的施信用一口气把手上全部的美债卖光好了",
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      "text_original": "即便日本真的施信封一口气把手上全部的美债卖光好了",
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    {
      "start": 522.147,
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      "text": "你说这个3%的持有量",
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      "start": 524.407,
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      "text": "一口气卖光对市场肯定会造成影响",
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      "start": 527.227,
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      "text": "这个无庸置疑",
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      "start": 528.247,
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      "text": "但要造成什么毁灭性的打击",
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      "start": 530.327,
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      "text": "大概也不至于",
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      "start": 532.147,
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      "text": "所以老实说我觉得那些高谈阔论",
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      "text_original": "所以老实说我觉得那些高谈扩论",
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      "start": 534.207,
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      "text": "说美国这次要出手救日币",
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      "start": 536.207,
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      "text": "是为了要救自己的美债的论点",
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      "start": 538.387,
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      "text": "是完全言过其实啊",
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      "start": 540.587,
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      "text": "那我们接着就来聊美日联盟的第二项武器",
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    {
      "start": 543.567,
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      "text": "美国的外汇平准基金",
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      "text_original": "美国的外汇凭准基金",
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      "start": 545.507,
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      "text": "美国可以动用这个外汇平准基金",
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      "text_original": "美国可以动用这个外汇凭准基金",
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      "start": 548.087,
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      "text": "适度的调节汇率",
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      "start": 549.427,
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      "text": "不过这个外汇平准基金的资金规模",
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      "text_original": "不过这个外汇凭准基金的资金规模",
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      "text": "跟日本的外汇存底比起来实在小得可怜",
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      "start": 554.907,
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      "text": "今年美国国会已经授权",
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      "start": 556.747,
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      "text": "这个外汇平准基金可以调用的资金",
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      "text_original": "这个外汇准基金可以调用的资金",
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    {
      "start": 559.227,
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      "text": "大约是6兆日币",
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      "start": 560.707,
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      "text": "这6兆日币的资金",
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      "start": 562.107,
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      "text": "放在400兆日元的空头部位面前",
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    {
      "start": 564.987,
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      "text": "根本就是塞个牙缝而已",
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      "text": "那我们把美国外汇存底基金的6兆日元",
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    {
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      "text": "跟日本的外汇存底190兆日元",
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      "start": 572.527,
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      "text": "一起加起来",
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      "text": "总共就196兆",
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      "start": 574.887,
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      "text": "要跟全球做空日币的400兆资金对抗",
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    {
      "start": 578.147,
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      "text": "仍然是力不从心",
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      "start": 579.767,
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      "text": "逻辑上",
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    {
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      "text": "美日做多日元联盟",
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      "start": 582.547,
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      "text": "跟日元的空军联盟正面硬干的话",
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    {
      "start": 585.447,
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      "text": "美日联盟是毫无胜算",
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      "start": 587.327,
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      "text": "连幻想一下自己有可能赢都是奢侈",
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      "text": "但这就延伸出我们要聊的第三个武器",
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    {
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      "text": "也就是美国日本这两个大庄家",
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      "text_original": "也就是美国日本这两个大装家",
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      "text": "联合声明对市场造成的影响",
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      "text_original": "联合声明对市场造成的异议",
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      "start": 597.467,
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      "text": "上国时代诸侯组成讨伐董卓联盟",
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      "text": "诸侯的力量加在一起虽然大过董卓",
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      "text": "但是诸侯各个心怀鬼胎",
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    {
      "start": 604.867,
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      "text": "都想要让别人先上",
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      "text_original": "都想要让别人闲赏",
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    {
      "start": 606.307,
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      "text": "自己等着收割",
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      "start": 607.507,
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      "text": "因为不够团结",
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    {
      "start": 608.927,
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      "text": "加总起来的力量明明比较大",
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      "start": 611.147,
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      "text": "最后却分崩离析",
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    {
      "start": 612.847,
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      "text": "让董卓继续逍遥人间",
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    {
      "start": 614.887,
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      "text": "我们套用到现在的情势",
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    {
      "start": 616.647,
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      "text": "美日联盟就好像是董卓",
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    {
      "start": 618.647,
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      "text": "散落在全球各地的日元套利交易资金",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "散落在全球各地的日币套利交易资金",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
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      "text": "就好像是讨伐董卓联盟",
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    {
      "start": 624.027,
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      "text": "实际上做空日元资金是比较强的",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "实际上做空日币的资金是比较强的",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
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    {
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      "text": "但他们并不是一块完整的铁板",
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    {
      "start": 628.987,
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      "text": "而是坐落在美国、英国、台湾的各家独立的对冲基金",
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      "text": "他们不但不是团结一心的合作伙伴",
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      "text": "甚至彼此之间还是竞争对手",
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      "text": "因此可能就会有人担心自己隔壁的空头盟友脚底抹油跑路",
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      "text_original": "因此可能就会有人担心自己隔壁的空军盟友脚底抹油跑路",
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      "start": 642.847,
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      "text": "那与其担心别人脚底抹油跑路",
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      "start": 645.327,
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      "text": "不如我自己先跑",
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      "start": 646.627,
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      "text": "假如引发这种效应就有可能造成空头之间的彼此踩踏",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.04875712718778444,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0697732630293721e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "假如引发这种效应就有可能造成空军之间的彼此踩踏",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 650.387,
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      "text": "大家争相回补自己的日元空头部位",
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      "text_original": "大家争相回补自己的日币空头部位",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
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    {
      "start": 653.227,
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      "text": "进而造成日元在短期内大幅升值",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.04875712718778444,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "进而造成日币在短期内大幅升值",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
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      "start": 655.927,
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      "text": "美日刚公布联合声明的那几天确实有这个迹象",
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    {
      "start": 659.447,
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      "text": "当时日币汇率在短短几小时内爆升",
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      "start": 662.227,
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      "text": "但是现在也过了十来天了",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.5375,
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      "start": 664.187,
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      "text": "看起来空头联盟也渐渐稳住阵脚",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07919629110673969,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "看起来空军联盟也渐渐稳住正脚",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 666.807,
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      "text": "空军开始明白",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 667.987,
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      "text": "只要空头自己稳住阵脚",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "只要空军自己稳住正脚",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 669.867,
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      "text": "美日联盟是拿我们没辙的",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07919629110673969,
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      "start": 672.147,
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      "text": "所以目前日元的汇率大概就在",
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    {
      "start": 674.247,
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      "text": "一美金比157日元左右徘徊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07919629110673969,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1306328269455879e-11,
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      "start": 676.707,
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      "text": "并没有进一步升值",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 678.167,
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      "text": "美日联合声明的短期影响",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07919629110673969,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1306328269455879e-11,
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    {
      "start": 679.967,
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      "text": "看起来就到此为止了",
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    {
      "start": 681.347,
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      "text": "就是让日币的汇率升值到",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1306328269455879e-11,
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    {
      "start": 683.287,
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      "text": "一美金比157日元左右",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07919629110673969,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1306328269455879e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.5375,
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      "start": 685.387,
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      "text": "接下来我们要讨论的",
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      "start": 686.947,
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      "text": "就是这件事能不能造成更深远的影响",
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      "text": "我自己认为更深远的影响还是有的",
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      "start": 692.047,
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      "text": "我刚刚有提到",
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      "text": "我覺得美日之間的利率",
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      "text_original": "我觉得每日之间的利率",
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      "text": "假如缩小到2%左右",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3580246913580247,
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      "start": 696.227,
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      "text": "因为已经没有足够的诱因",
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    {
      "start": 698.087,
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      "text": "让新的资金再投入到日币的套利交易",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.289756582784074e-11,
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      "text": "日币应该会止跌了",
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    {
      "start": 702.647,
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      "text": "假如利差进一步缩小到1%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.289756582784074e-11,
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      "text": "那可能连既有的资金",
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      "start": 707.067,
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      "text": "都会开始主动撤出",
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      "text": "2%跟1%这个数字",
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    {
      "start": 711.047,
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      "text": "在美日兩個大莊家出面聲明之後",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "在每日两个大庄家出头声明之后",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 713.847,
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      "text": "理论上都会微幅往上调",
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    {
      "start": 715.907,
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      "text": "因为理性的数字是一回事",
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      "start": 718.087,
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      "text": "大家看到大庄家出来喊话了",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 720.407,
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      "text": "心里多少也会怕",
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    {
      "start": 722.007,
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      "text": "多少要给大专家一点尊重",
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    {
      "start": 724.167,
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      "text": "可能就会想要把安全边际抓得更高",
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      "start": 726.947,
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      "text": "安全边际到底是多少没有人说得准",
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    {
      "start": 729.487,
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      "text": "但我自己凭感觉说的话",
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    {
      "start": 731.047,
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      "text": "觉得0.5%是个差不多的数字",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 733.707,
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      "text": "也就是说日币止跌跟日币开始回升的利差",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.0945889993679304,
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      "start": 736.727,
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      "text": "可能分别会从2%跟1%",
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    {
      "start": 739.587,
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      "text": "上调到2.5%跟1.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 743.167,
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      "text": "目前日币的政策利率是1%",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.0945889993679304,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0613434610340367e-11,
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    {
      "start": 745.287,
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      "text": "美元的政策利率是3.5%",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0613434610340367e-11,
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      "start": 748.027,
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      "text": "两者之间的利差刚好就是2.5%",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.0945889993679304,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0613434610340367e-11,
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    {
      "start": 751.047,
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      "text": "因此我认为考虑到安全边际后",
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    {
      "start": 753.407,
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      "text": "目前的利差可能已经让新的资金",
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    {
      "start": 756.227,
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      "text": "没有足够的诱因再继续投入日元的套利交易",
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      "start": 759.387,
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      "text": "那日币什么时候会开始回升呢?",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
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    {
      "start": 761.987,
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      "text": "市場普遍預期今年美國跟日本都還會陸續升息",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09498919191814605,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2879746835443038,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "市场普遍预期今年美国跟日本都还会陆续升息",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 765.927,
      "end": 768.927,
      "text": "假設兩者升息的頻率跟幅度是一致的話",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09498919191814605,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2879746835443038,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "假设两者升息的频率跟幅度是一致的话",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 768.927,
      "end": 771.487,
      "text": "2.5%这个利差就不会缩小",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 771.487,
      "end": 774.127,
      "text": "必須要日元升息的比美國還快",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09498919191814605,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "必须要日元升息的比美国还快",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 774.127,
      "end": 775.547,
      "text": "利差才会缩小",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.2879746835443038,
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    },
    {
      "start": 775.547,
      "end": 779.647,
      "text": "假如我们再往更细节看",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.412334398737114e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 779.647,
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      "text": "其实根据过往的研究",
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      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 781.187,
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      "text": "美元的利息影響又比日元的利息影響還大",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "美元的利息影响又比日元的利息影响还大",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 784.767,
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      "text": "这背后的逻辑可能是金融市场普遍还是觉得",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 787.647,
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      "text": "美元相较于日元是更有价值的货币",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07542670766512553,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 790.207,
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      "text": "所以一樣是升息一碼的話",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "所以一样是升息一码的话",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 792.187,
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      "text": "市场会觉得美元的分量比较重一点",
      "chunk": 1,
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    },
    {
      "start": 794.647,
      "end": 795.907,
      "text": "这个意思就是说",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.5238095238095237,
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    },
    {
      "start": 795.907,
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      "text": "即便接下来两国升息的频率都是一样的",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 799.047,
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      "text": "因為美金的分量比較重",
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      "language": "zh",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "因为美金的分量比较重",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 800.707,
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      "text": "日幣可能還是持續走貶",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "日币可能还是会持续环扁",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 802.767,
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      "text": "並不會因為利差被鎖定",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "并不会因为利差被锁定了",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 804.767,
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      "text": "汇率就也跟着锁定",
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    },
    {
      "start": 806.367,
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      "text": "在利差不变的前提下",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0815310452771953e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.5238095238095237,
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    },
    {
      "start": 808.087,
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      "text": "日幣可能還是長期走貶的機率比較高",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07588958216237497,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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      "text_original": "日币可能还是长期走扁的几率高一点",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
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    {
      "start": 810.967,
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      "text": "日元真的要完全摆脱向下螺旋",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 813.367,
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      "text": "就是要升息的比美國還快還狠",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "就是要升息的比美国还快还狠",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 815.827,
      "end": 818.027,
      "text": "但这又牵涉到我们刚刚提到的",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 818.027,
      "end": 820.107,
      "text": "日本因为自己沉重的财务负担",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3258064516129033,
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    {
      "start": 820.107,
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      "text": "升息起來是綁手綁腳",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07588958216237497,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "升息起来是绑手绑脚",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 821.967,
      "end": 826.687,
      "text": "综合以上所有的分析",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 826.687,
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      "text": "我認為接下來日幣要強升",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "我认为接下来日币要强升",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 828.607,
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      "text": "推力是不存在的",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07588958216237497,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 830.087,
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      "text": "反而是過去幾年日幣持續緩貶的因素",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3258064516129033,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "反而是过去几年日币持续缓扁的因素",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 833.687,
      "end": 834.827,
      "text": "虽然得到缓解",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 834.827,
      "end": 836.747,
      "text": "但并没有被根本性的解决",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07588958216237497,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.212587322219072e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3258064516129033,
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    },
    {
      "start": 836.747,
      "end": 839.607,
      "text": "现在跟过往几年状况不一样的地方是",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
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    },
    {
      "start": 839.607,
      "end": 842.407,
      "text": "虽然缓跌的因素没有被完全消除",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
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    },
    {
      "start": 842.407,
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      "text": "日幣的匯率卻得到美國跟日本兩個大莊家的公開支持",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06151249457378777,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "日币的汇率却得到美国跟日本两个大庄家的公开支持",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 846.567,
      "end": 848.127,
      "text": "空軍氣焰再囂張",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "空军气焰再嚣张",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 848.127,
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      "text": "也要看看大庄家的脸色",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
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    },
    {
      "start": 849.947,
      "end": 852.147,
      "text": "更重要的是日元的套利交易者",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
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    },
    {
      "start": 852.147,
      "end": 854.807,
      "text": "對於日元的套利交易需要提供的利差",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06151249457378777,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "对于日元的套利交易需要提供的利差",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 854.807,
      "end": 856.007,
      "text": "期望会上升",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
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    },
    {
      "start": 856.007,
      "end": 858.187,
      "text": "以前只要有2%的利差",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 858.187,
      "end": 861.407,
      "text": "套利交易者就有誘因持續投入套利交易",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06151249457378777,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "套利交易者就有诱因持续投入套利交易",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 861.407,
      "end": 863.607,
      "text": "現在因為大莊家出面干涉了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06151249457378777,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "现在因为大庄家出面干涉了",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 863.607,
      "end": 866.207,
      "text": "套利交易者預期跟大莊家對著干",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06151249457378777,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2509869008747732e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4825396825396826,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "套利交易者预期跟大庄家对着干",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 866.207,
      "end": 867.947,
      "text": "需要承受更多風險",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06810217487568758,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0947426125340609e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4185303514376997,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "需要承受更多风险",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 867.947,
      "end": 870.227,
      "text": "所以提供的利差沒有2.5%的話",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06810217487568758,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0947426125340609e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4185303514376997,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "所以提供的利差没有2.5%的话",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 870.227,
      "end": 871.227,
      "text": "他們就不干了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.06810217487568758,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0947426125340609e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4185303514376997,
      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "他们就不干了",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 871.227,
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      "text": "我認為利差預期的上升",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text_original": "我认为利差预期的上升",
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    {
      "start": 872.967,
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      "text": "是真正有效幫助日幣止跌的因素",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0947426125340609e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "是真正有效帮助日币止跌的因素",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
    },
    {
      "start": 875.767,
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      "text": "也因為利差預期的上升",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.0947426125340609e-11,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "也因为利差预期的上升",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 877.647,
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      "text": "日幣要再往下跌",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "日币要再往下跌",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 878.887,
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      "text": "空間可能也真的不大了",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "空间可能也真的不大了",
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    {
      "start": 880.647,
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      "text": "結論來說",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "结论来说",
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      "text": "我認為接下來半年到一年的時間",
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      "text_original": "我认为接下来半年到一年的时间",
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      "text": "日幣的匯率大概會在",
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      "text_original": "日币的汇率大概会在",
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    {
      "start": 885.367,
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      "text": "1美金比157日圓到",
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      "text_original": "1美金比157日元到",
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    {
      "start": 887.527,
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      "text": "1美金比163日圓之間徘徊",
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      "text_original": "1美金比163日元之间徘徊",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 890.107,
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      "text": "也因為目前日幣看起來沒有極深的風險",
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      "text_original": "也因为目前日币看起来没有极深的风险",
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      "start": 892.927,
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      "text": "我不打算積極處置",
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      "text_original": "我并不打算积极处置",
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      "text": "我目前手上的日幣空頭部位",
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      "text_original": "我目前手上的日币空头部位",
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    {
      "start": 896.767,
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      "text": "我目前不會再新增日幣的空頭部位",
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      "text_original": "我目前不会再新增日币的空头部位",
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    {
      "start": 899.247,
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      "text": "但手上已經持有的也不急著處分",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "但手上已经持有的也不急着处分",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 901.747,
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      "text": "可能就之後日幣有繼續往下探",
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      "text_original": "可能就之后日币有再继续往下探",
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    {
      "start": 904.107,
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      "text": "比如說回到160左右的時侯",
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      "text_original": "比如说回到160左右的话",
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    {
      "start": 906.027,
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      "text": "就多少回補一點吧",
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      "text_original": "就多少回补一点吧",
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      "text": "日幣匯率開始區間徘徊",
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      "text_original": "日币汇率开始区间徘徊",
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    {
      "start": 909.627,
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      "text": "不再像以前一樣喋喋不休",
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      "text_original": "不再像以前一样喋喋不休",
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    {
      "start": 911.367,
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      "text": "這當然會影響到日本以出口業為首的特定產業",
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      "text_original": "这当然会影响到日本以出口业为首的特定产业",
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      "text": "但是對日本的整體經濟應該是好事",
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      "text_original": "但是对日本的整体经济应该是好事",
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    {
      "start": 917.427,
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      "text": "作為一個在日本生活的人",
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      "text_original": "作为一个在日本生活的人",
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    {
      "start": 919.027,
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      "text": "我是正面看待這件事情",
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      "text_original": "我是正面看待这件事情",
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    {
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      "text": "假設你認同我的看法",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "假设你认同我的看法",
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      "text": "覺得日幣在接下來半年到一年間",
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      "text_original": "觉得日币在接下来半年到一年间",
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    {
      "start": 924.567,
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      "text": "可能就在這個區間徘徊",
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      "text_original": "可能就在这个区间徘徊",
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    {
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      "text": "不會再大幅震盪",
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      "text_original": "不会再大幅震荡",
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      "text": "而且日幣的匯率趨於穩定",
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      "text_original": "而且日币的汇率趋于稳定",
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      "text": "對於日本的整體經濟是好事的話",
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      "text_original": "对于日本的整体经济是好事的话",
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      "text": "那接下來日幣假如又往下修正",
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      "text_original": "那接下来日币假如又往下修正",
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      "text": "比如說又回到1比160左右的時侯",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text_original": "比如说又回到1比160左右的时候",
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      "text": "換一些日幣",
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      "text_original": "换一些日币",
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      "text": "進場投資日本的資產",
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      "text_original": "进场投资日本的资产",
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      "text": "或許是個不錯的投資抉擇",
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      "text_original": "或许是个不错的投资抉择",
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    {
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      "text": "以上就是這個影片的所有內容",
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      "text_original": "以上就是这个影片的所有内容",
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    {
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      "text": "感謝你的觀看",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "感谢你的观看",
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      "text": "祝你身體健康",
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      "text_original": "祝你身体健康",
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      "text": "投資順利",
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      "text_original": "投资顺利",
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