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      "text": "图片调工具处理私人数据",
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      "id": 133,
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      "text": "大量开发者就会围绕它做",
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      "text": "哪怕Meta不直接收每一次调用费",
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      "text": "用开放打破别人的封闭利润池",
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      "text": "再在更大的生态里寻找收益",
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      "id": 150,
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      "text": "它让AI从演示回到产品",
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      "text": "企业关心的是成本延迟",
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      "end": 368.566,
      "text": "部署安全稳定可维护",
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      "text": "一个30B模型",
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      "text": "消费级GPU上完成稳定任务",
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      "text": "它的商业价值可能比一个只能在",
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      "text": "云端高价运行的巨型模型更直接",
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      "text": "尤其是agent场景",
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      "text": "而是一连串动作",
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      "text": "理解目标拆任务",
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      "text": "读文件调用工具",
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      "text": "检查结果",
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      "id": 168,
      "start": 392.8,
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      "text": "这里面很多步骤并不需要最强模型",
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    },
    {
      "id": 169,
      "start": 395.6,
      "end": 398.666,
      "text": "文件分类表格检查界面操作",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 170,
      "start": 398.7,
      "end": 402.366,
      "text": "图片理解简单代码修改本地搜索",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 171,
      "start": 402.533,
      "end": 404.5,
      "text": "都可以由较小模型承担",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 172,
      "start": 404.6,
      "end": 406.8,
      "text": "把这些步骤放到本地执行",
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    },
    {
      "id": 173,
      "start": 407.366,
      "end": 409.4,
      "text": "云端只处理最难的推理",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 174,
      "start": 409.7,
      "end": 411.9,
      "text": "整个系统成本会明显下降",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 175,
      "start": 411.933,
      "end": 413.366,
      "text": "这也解释了为什么",
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    },
    {
      "id": 176,
      "start": 413.366,
      "end": 415.966,
      "text": "本地模型会越来越重要",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 177,
      "start": 415.966,
      "end": 417.7,
      "text": "AI的下一阶段不是谁",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 178,
      "start": 417.7,
      "end": 419.133,
      "text": "能回答得更漂亮",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 179,
      "start": 419.666,
      "end": 422.6,
      "text": "而是谁能更便宜的完成更多动作",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 180,
      "start": 422.8,
      "end": 425.366,
      "text": "一个公司每天调用百万次模型",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 181,
      "start": 425.6,
      "end": 428.3,
      "text": "如果每一步都走最贵的闭源API",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 182,
      "start": 428.466,
      "end": 429.933,
      "text": "成本会很快失控",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 183,
      "start": 429.966,
      "end": 431.6,
      "text": "本地模型可以承担大量",
      "source": "source_caption",
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    },
    {
      "id": 184,
      "start": 431.6,
      "end": 434.466,
      "text": "低风险重复性隐私敏感任务",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 185,
      "start": 434.533,
      "end": 436.3,
      "text": "它不必取代旗舰模型",
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    },
    {
      "id": 186,
      "start": 436.666,
      "end": 438.166,
      "text": "只要把旗舰模型从低",
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    },
    {
      "id": 187,
      "start": 438.166,
      "end": 439.933,
      "text": "价值任务里解放出来",
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    },
    {
      "id": 188,
      "start": 439.933,
      "end": 441.266,
      "text": "就已经很有意义",
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    },
    {
      "id": 189,
      "start": 441.366,
      "end": 444.3,
      "text": "对普通创作者和小公司来说",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 190,
      "start": 444.333,
      "end": 446.3,
      "text": "这条路线尤其关键",
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    },
    {
      "id": 191,
      "start": 446.333,
      "end": 448.0,
      "text": "大公司可以买算力",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 192,
      "start": 448.133,
      "end": 449.2,
      "text": "签云合同",
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    },
    {
      "id": 193,
      "start": 449.2,
      "end": 450.366,
      "text": "雇安全团队",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 194,
      "start": 450.466,
      "end": 452.133,
      "text": "小团队没有这个条件",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 195,
      "start": 452.733,
      "end": 454.533,
      "text": "如果未来所有AI能力都",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 196,
      "start": 454.533,
      "end": 456.9,
      "text": "绑定高价订阅和云端调用",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 197,
      "start": 456.933,
      "end": 459.066,
      "text": "小团队会永远站在门外",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 198,
      "start": 459.1,
      "end": 460.4,
      "text": "开放权重模型",
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    },
    {
      "id": 199,
      "start": 460.4,
      "end": 462.0,
      "text": "让他们至少有机会在",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 200,
      "start": 462.0,
      "end": 463.866,
      "text": "本地搭一个能跑的系统",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 201,
      "start": 464.166,
      "end": 465.133,
      "text": "哪怕不完美",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 202,
      "start": 465.133,
      "end": 467.266,
      "text": "也能开始改造自己的工作流",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 203,
      "start": 467.4,
      "end": 469.8,
      "text": "当然开源模型也有风险",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 204,
      "start": 469.9,
      "end": 472.1,
      "text": "开放权重意味着能力会扩散",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 205,
      "start": 472.366,
      "end": 473.8,
      "text": "好的用途会扩散",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 206,
      "start": 473.966,
      "end": 475.533,
      "text": "坏的用途也会扩散",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 207,
      "start": 475.733,
      "end": 478.266,
      "text": "安全过滤滥用检测",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 208,
      "start": 478.533,
      "end": 480.3,
      "text": "责任归属都会变复杂",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 209,
      "start": 480.466,
      "end": 483.066,
      "text": "闭源公司常用安全作为封闭理由",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 210,
      "start": 483.066,
      "end": 484.7,
      "text": "不能说完全没有道理",
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    },
    {
      "id": 211,
      "start": 484.9,
      "end": 487.966,
      "text": "但如果只因为风险就把能力锁死",
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    },
    {
      "id": 212,
      "start": 488.4,
      "end": 491.066,
      "text": "最后得到的是少数公司",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 213,
      "start": 491.066,
      "end": 492.8,
      "text": "控制所有AI基础设施",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 214,
      "start": 493.066,
      "end": 495.166,
      "text": "Meta现在押的是另一种答案",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 215,
      "start": 495.8,
      "end": 497.133,
      "text": "风险需要治理",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 216,
      "start": 497.2,
      "end": 500.266,
      "text": "但不能用风险作为永久垄断的理由",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 217,
      "start": 500.5,
      "end": 502.566,
      "text": "Muse Glimmer真正要证明的",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 218,
      "start": 502.566,
      "end": 505.566,
      "text": "不是30B能不能击败所有大模型",
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    },
    {
      "id": 219,
      "start": 505.733,
      "end": 508.666,
      "text": "而是开放路线能不能在AI",
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    },
    {
      "id": 220,
      "start": 508.666,
      "end": 511.0,
      "text": "商业化最激烈的时候继续存在",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 221,
      "start": 511.166,
      "end": 512.533,
      "text": "闭源路线说",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 222,
      "start": 512.8,
      "end": 514.6,
      "text": "最强能力必须集中",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 223,
      "start": 514.9,
      "end": 517.966,
      "text": "才能安全可靠可收费",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 224,
      "start": 518.0,
      "end": 520.6,
      "text": "开放路线说能力必须分发",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 225,
      "start": 520.766,
      "end": 523.333,
      "text": "社会才不会被少数入口控制",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 226,
      "start": 523.5,
      "end": 525.133,
      "text": "两条路线都会存在",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 227,
      "start": 525.2,
      "end": 527.4,
      "text": "但它们代表完全不同的未来",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 228,
      "start": 527.733,
      "end": 530.333,
      "text": "接下来要看的不是一两次榜单成绩",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 229,
      "start": 530.4,
      "end": 532.8,
      "text": "而是开发者是否真的使用它",
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    },
    {
      "id": 230,
      "start": 532.9,
      "end": 535.1,
      "text": "有没有人把它部署到本地agent",
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    },
    {
      "id": 231,
      "start": 535.466,
      "end": 538.1,
      "text": "有没有企业拿它做内部流程",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 232,
      "start": 538.266,
      "end": 541.266,
      "text": "有没有硬件厂商把它放进设备",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 233,
      "start": 541.666,
      "end": 543.2,
      "text": "有没有开源社区围绕",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 234,
      "start": 543.2,
      "end": 544.9,
      "text": "它做微调和工具链",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 235,
      "start": 545.166,
      "end": 546.733,
      "text": "如果这些事情发生",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 236,
      "start": 546.9,
      "end": 548.466,
      "text": "muscoglamer的意义就不",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 237,
      "start": 548.466,
      "end": 550.1,
      "text": "只是一个模型发布",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 238,
      "start": 550.166,
      "end": 552.566,
      "text": "而是Meta在重新争夺AI",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 239,
      "start": 552.566,
      "end": 554.266,
      "text": "基础设施的话语权",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 240,
      "start": 554.266,
      "end": 556.533,
      "text": "这场竞争还有一个更大的背景",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 241,
      "start": 557.2,
      "end": 559.333,
      "text": "AI正在从模型能力竞争",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 242,
      "start": 559.4,
      "end": 561.266,
      "text": "转向分发方式竞争",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 243,
      "start": 561.5,
      "end": 564.166,
      "text": "Openai想把模型做成超级应用",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 244,
      "start": 564.366,
      "end": 566.766,
      "text": "Google想把AI塞回搜索和安卓",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 245,
      "start": 567.066,
      "end": 569.533,
      "text": "苹果想把AI放进硬件和系统",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 246,
      "start": 569.766,
      "end": 571.6,
      "text": "Meta则想让开放模型",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 247,
      "start": 571.6,
      "end": 573.4,
      "text": "成为开发者默认底座",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 248,
      "start": 573.766,
      "end": 576.1,
      "text": "Musglimer只是其中一块拼图",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 249,
      "start": 576.133,
      "end": 578.066,
      "text": "但它指向的方向很清楚",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 250,
      "start": 578.2,
      "end": 580.866,
      "text": "让AI不止存在于云端",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 251,
      "start": 581.066,
      "end": 583.3,
      "text": "也存在于每台电脑每个",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 252,
      "start": 583.3,
      "end": 585.5,
      "text": "应用每个本地工作流里",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 253,
      "start": 585.5,
      "end": 587.1,
      "text": "所以这次发布不能只",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 254,
      "start": 587.1,
      "end": 589.933,
      "text": "看成Meta又开源了一个模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 255,
      "start": 590.3,
      "end": 592.0,
      "text": "它更像一次路线宣言",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 256,
      "start": 592.266,
      "end": 594.866,
      "text": "AI如果只能在数据中心运行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 257,
      "start": 595.133,
      "end": 597.0,
      "text": "用户就永远是租客",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 258,
      "start": 597.166,
      "end": 599.4,
      "text": "AI如果可以在本地运行",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 259,
      "start": 599.733,
      "end": 601.8,
      "text": "用户才有机会成为主人",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 260,
      "start": 601.966,
      "end": 604.1,
      "text": "musglimmer的价值就在这里",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 261,
      "start": 604.266,
      "end": 606.066,
      "text": "它可能不是最强的模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 262,
      "start": 606.366,
      "end": 608.166,
      "text": "但他在提醒整个行业",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 263,
      "start": 608.366,
      "end": 611.166,
      "text": "未来的AI不应该只属于机房",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 264,
      "start": 611.166,
      "end": 612.766,
      "text": "也应该属于桌面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 265,
      "start": 612.8,
      "end": 616.266,
      "text": "这里还要看Costla对AI投资的判断",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 266,
      "start": 616.466,
      "end": 618.466,
      "text": "他认为Openai和Anthropic",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 267,
      "start": 618.466,
      "end": 620.0,
      "text": "不是AI故事的终点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 268,
      "start": 620.0,
      "end": 621.166,
      "text": "而只是开头",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 269,
      "start": 621.3,
      "end": 622.6,
      "text": "未来会出现更多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 270,
      "start": 622.6,
      "end": 625.266,
      "text": "千亿美元万亿美元级公司",
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      "id": 271,
      "start": 625.5,
      "end": 627.8,
      "text": "影响科学医疗能源",
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      "id": 272,
      "start": 627.866,
      "end": 630.166,
      "text": "教育制造这些基础领域",
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      "id": 273,
      "start": 630.2,
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      "text": "这个判断放到museglimpse上",
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      "id": 274,
      "start": 632.566,
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      "text": "就能看见Meta的算盘",
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    {
      "id": 275,
      "start": 634.5,
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      "text": "如果未来有大量垂直AI公司出现",
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    {
      "id": 276,
      "start": 637.733,
      "end": 640.666,
      "text": "他们不一定都愿意从闭源API开始",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 277,
      "start": 640.933,
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      "text": "科学研究就是一个典型场景",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 278,
      "start": 643.266,
      "end": 645.666,
      "text": "实验室需要处理论文图像",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 279,
      "start": 645.7,
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      "text": "代码仪器数据和内部记录",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 280,
      "start": 648.5,
      "end": 650.0,
      "text": "很多资料不能随便",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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    {
      "id": 281,
      "start": 650.0,
      "end": 651.6,
      "text": "上传到外部云服务",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 282,
      "start": 651.666,
      "end": 653.8,
      "text": "一个本地多模态模型",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 283,
      "start": 653.866,
      "end": 655.166,
      "text": "就算不是最强",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 284,
      "start": 655.2,
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      "text": "也可以承担文献整理",
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      "id": 285,
      "start": 657.566,
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      "text": "实验记录搜索图表理解",
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      "id": 286,
      "start": 660.133,
      "end": 662.733,
      "text": "工具调用和初步假设生成",
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      "id": 287,
      "start": 662.933,
      "end": 664.466,
      "text": "它不会替代科学家",
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      "id": 288,
      "start": 664.566,
      "end": 666.8,
      "text": "但会把很多低价值搜索",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 289,
      "start": 666.8,
      "end": 668.9,
      "text": "和整理动作压低成本",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 290,
      "start": 669.133,
      "end": 670.133,
      "text": "Meta很清楚",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 291,
      "start": 670.5,
      "end": 672.0,
      "text": "闭源模型越强",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 292,
      "start": 672.166,
      "end": 675.266,
      "text": "外界对模型集中化的担心就越重",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 293,
      "start": 675.3,
      "end": 677.366,
      "text": "一个公司如果控制模型",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 294,
      "start": 677.8,
      "end": 678.966,
      "text": "控制分发",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 295,
      "start": 679.5,
      "end": 680.533,
      "text": "控制价格",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 296,
      "start": 680.733,
      "end": 682.133,
      "text": "控制安全规则",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 297,
      "start": 682.466,
      "end": 684.466,
      "text": "开发者就会变成依附者",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 298,
      "start": 684.8,
      "end": 686.666,
      "text": "今天接口价格可以接受",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 299,
      "start": 686.733,
      "end": 688.266,
      "text": "明天规则可能变",
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      "id": 300,
      "start": 688.266,
      "end": 689.933,
      "text": "今天调用额度够用",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 301,
      "start": 689.933,
      "end": 692.666,
      "text": "明天业务增长后成本可能翻倍",
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      "id": 302,
      "start": 692.766,
      "end": 695.566,
      "text": "开放模型给开发者留了一条退路",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 303,
      "start": 696.133,
      "end": 698.6,
      "text": "这条退路本身就是谈判筹码",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "start": 698.8,
      "end": 700.166,
      "text": "这也是为什么开放",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 305,
      "start": 700.166,
      "end": 702.366,
      "text": "权重会压低行业利润率",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 306,
      "start": 702.466,
      "end": 704.7,
      "text": "只要有足够好的开源替代品",
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      "id": 307,
      "start": 705.3,
      "end": 706.933,
      "text": "闭源公司就很难对中",
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      "id": 308,
      "start": 706.933,
      "end": 708.766,
      "text": "低端任务收太高价格",
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    },
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      "start": 708.966,
      "end": 711.133,
      "text": "旗舰模型仍然可以卖高价",
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      "id": 310,
      "start": 711.266,
      "end": 713.066,
      "text": "但大量日常任务会被",
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      "id": 311,
      "start": 713.066,
      "end": 715.366,
      "text": "本地模型和开放模型吃掉",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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    {
      "id": 312,
      "start": 715.533,
      "end": 717.666,
      "text": "Meta不靠模型订阅赚钱",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 313,
      "start": 718.066,
      "end": 720.466,
      "text": "反而适合推动这种价格下行",
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      "id": 314,
      "start": 720.566,
      "end": 722.333,
      "text": "他要让AI变成空气",
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      "id": 315,
      "start": 722.5,
      "end": 724.366,
      "text": "然后在空气里做平台",
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      "start": 724.4,
      "end": 727.366,
      "text": "有人会问30B模型真的够吗",
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    },
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      "id": 317,
      "start": 727.466,
      "end": 728.933,
      "text": "这个问题要看任务",
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    },
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      "id": 318,
      "start": 729.2,
      "end": 730.9,
      "text": "写一段复杂法律意见",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 319,
      "start": 730.9,
      "end": 731.8,
      "text": "可能不够",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
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      "id": 320,
      "start": 731.933,
      "end": 734.533,
      "text": "做一个本地客服分类器够",
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      "id": 321,
      "start": 734.766,
      "end": 737.933,
      "text": "通读一本手册并回答设备维修问题",
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      "start": 738.066,
      "end": 741.766,
      "text": "可能够整理图片和文字生成初稿",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 323,
      "start": 741.9,
      "end": 745.066,
      "text": "可能够控制一组本地工具跑流程不",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 324,
      "start": 745.366,
      "end": 746.466,
      "text": "可能也够",
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    },
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      "id": 325,
      "start": 746.733,
      "end": 748.3,
      "text": "AI产品不需要每次都",
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    },
    {
      "id": 326,
      "start": 748.3,
      "end": 749.966,
      "text": "派最强模型上场",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 327,
      "start": 750.166,
      "end": 751.866,
      "text": "就像公司不会让总裁",
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    },
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      "id": 328,
      "start": 751.866,
      "end": 753.533,
      "text": "去处理每张报销单",
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      "id": 329,
      "start": 753.8,
      "end": 755.666,
      "text": "真正成熟的AI系统",
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    },
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      "id": 330,
      "start": 755.8,
      "end": 757.733,
      "text": "很可能是多模型协作",
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    },
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      "id": 331,
      "start": 757.866,
      "end": 759.366,
      "text": "小模型负责本地",
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    },
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      "id": 332,
      "start": 759.4,
      "end": 761.966,
      "text": "便宜低风险高频动作",
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      "end": 764.166,
      "text": "中型模型负责复杂判断",
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      "end": 767.266,
      "text": "旗舰模型负责少数关键推理",
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      "start": 767.4,
      "end": 769.266,
      "text": "Muse Glimmer的位置就在",
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      "text": "第一层和第二层之间",
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      "id": 337,
      "start": 771.2,
      "end": 772.566,
      "text": "它不抢所有舞台",
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    },
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      "id": 338,
      "start": 772.8,
      "end": 774.666,
      "text": "但可以进入很多工作流",
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    },
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      "id": 339,
      "start": 774.7,
      "end": 776.666,
      "text": "这个位置一旦铺开",
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    },
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      "id": 340,
      "start": 776.8,
      "end": 778.366,
      "text": "使用量会非常大",
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      "id": 341,
      "start": 778.4,
      "end": 781.666,
      "text": "所以Muse Glimmer看起来是技术事件",
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      "id": 342,
      "start": 781.666,
      "end": 783.566,
      "text": "背后其实是分发事件",
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      "start": 783.766,
      "end": 786.2,
      "text": "AI行业未来最大的战场",
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    },
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      "id": 344,
      "start": 786.2,
      "end": 788.466,
      "text": "不只是模型谁更聪明",
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      "id": 345,
      "start": 788.533,
      "end": 790.966,
      "text": "而是谁能接触更多开发者",
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      "start": 791.3,
      "end": 792.166,
      "text": "更多设备",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "id": 347,
      "start": 792.4,
      "end": 793.6,
      "text": "更多工作流",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
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      "text": "更多真实业务",
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    },
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      "text": "开放权重提供了一种复制速度",
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      "end": 799.8,
      "text": "一个模型被下载后",
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      "text": "可以在无数环境里变成不同产品",
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      "id": 352,
      "start": 802.533,
      "end": 803.933,
      "text": "闭源模型再强",
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    },
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      "id": 353,
      "start": 804.166,
      "end": 806.3,
      "text": "也必须等用户来到它的入口",
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      "id": 354,
      "start": 806.466,
      "end": 809.0,
      "text": "当然开放模型要赢也不容易",
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      "start": 809.2,
      "end": 810.733,
      "text": "开发体验必须好",
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      "id": 356,
      "start": 810.866,
      "end": 812.133,
      "text": "文档必须清楚",
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      "start": 812.3,
      "end": 813.8,
      "text": "工具链必须稳定",
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      "start": 813.966,
      "end": 815.733,
      "text": "推理速度必须能接受",
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      "start": 815.933,
      "end": 817.866,
      "text": "硬件适配不能太痛苦",
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      "start": 818.133,
      "end": 819.8,
      "text": "如果一个模型开源了",
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      "id": 361,
      "start": 819.8,
      "end": 821.733,
      "text": "但部署起来像拆炸弹",
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      "id": 362,
      "start": 821.9,
      "end": 823.733,
      "text": "开发者很快就会放弃",
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      "start": 823.966,
      "end": 827.6,
      "text": "Meta这次把exec torch等部署线索放进来",
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      "start": 827.733,
      "end": 830.366,
      "text": "说明它知道只开源权重还不够",
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      "end": 832.466,
      "text": "真正要争的是落地链路",
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      "start": 832.666,
      "end": 834.533,
      "text": "安全问题也不能回避",
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      "id": 367,
      "start": 834.666,
      "end": 836.2,
      "text": "一个能在本地运行",
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      "id": 368,
      "start": 836.533,
      "end": 837.7,
      "text": "能调用工具",
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      "end": 840.366,
      "text": "能处理多模态输入的模型",
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      "start": 840.566,
      "end": 842.066,
      "text": "如果被错误使用",
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      "start": 842.1,
      "end": 843.966,
      "text": "也会带来自动化滥用",
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      "text": "业务部门问延迟能不能接受",
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      "start": 1070.0,
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      "text": "同时回答几个问题",
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      "text": "它不急着把模型本身变成利润中心",
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      "text": "广告社交关系和平台分发",
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      "text": "Anthropic必须证明企业安全",
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      "text": "削弱对手收费能力",
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      "text": "这种打法很狠",
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      "text": "如果未来个人设备都能跑中型模型",
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      "text": "AI产品形态也会变",
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      "text": "很多应用不再需要把",
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      "text": "所有请求传到服务器",
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      "text": "而是把模型嵌进本地功能里",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 574,
      "start": 1301.533,
      "end": 1303.866,
      "text": "写作软件可以本地整理草稿",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 575,
      "start": 1304.066,
      "end": 1306.366,
      "text": "剪辑软件可以本地识别素材",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 576,
      "start": 1306.666,
      "end": 1308.866,
      "text": "浏览器可以本地总结网页",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 577,
      "start": 1308.933,
      "end": 1311.266,
      "text": "开发工具可以本地读项目",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 578,
      "start": 1311.466,
      "end": 1312.733,
      "text": "云端仍然存在",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 579,
      "start": 1312.966,
      "end": 1315.333,
      "text": "但本地会承担更多基础动作",
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    },
    {
      "id": 580,
      "start": 1315.366,
      "end": 1318.366,
      "text": "所以这件事最后要落到一个判断",
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    },
    {
      "id": 581,
      "start": 1318.8,
      "end": 1321.333,
      "text": "AI的未来不会只有一种入口",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 582,
      "start": 1321.466,
      "end": 1323.466,
      "text": "云端旗舰模型会存在",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 583,
      "start": 1323.566,
      "end": 1325.7,
      "text": "本地开放模型也会存在",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 584,
      "start": 1325.866,
      "end": 1327.566,
      "text": "前者负责极限能力",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 585,
      "start": 1327.7,
      "end": 1329.933,
      "text": "后者负责普及和控制权",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 586,
      "start": 1330.1,
      "end": 1331.733,
      "text": "Meta现在压的是后者",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 587,
      "start": 1332.1,
      "end": 1333.4,
      "text": "而且押得很聪明",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 588,
      "start": 1333.566,
      "end": 1335.2,
      "text": "它不一定赢走所有收入",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 589,
      "start": 1335.333,
      "end": 1337.666,
      "text": "但可能赢走很多默认选择",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 590,
      "start": 1337.766,
      "end": 1339.733,
      "text": "如果把它放进更长周期",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 591,
      "start": 1340.066,
      "end": 1341.0,
      "text": "Muse Glimmer",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 592,
      "start": 1341.366,
      "end": 1344.0,
      "text": "代表的是AI商品化之后的下一步",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 593,
      "start": 1344.2,
      "end": 1346.766,
      "text": "模型能力会越来越像基础能力",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 594,
      "start": 1346.9,
      "end": 1349.2,
      "text": "真正差异会转移到数据",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 595,
      "start": 1349.333,
      "end": 1352.133,
      "text": "场景部署体验和生态",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 596,
      "start": 1352.366,
      "end": 1354.933,
      "text": "Meta提前把模型底座打开",
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      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 597,
      "start": 1355.0,
      "end": 1358.1,
      "text": "是在承认模型本身迟早会变便宜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 598,
      "start": 1358.4,
      "end": 1359.766,
      "text": "既然便宜不可避免",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 599,
      "start": 1359.766,
      "end": 1361.5,
      "text": "不如主动让它变便宜",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 600,
      "start": 1361.6,
      "end": 1363.866,
      "text": "再去控制更大的生态入口",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 601,
      "start": 1363.866,
      "end": 1366.533,
      "text": "这对闭源公司是一种压力测试",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 602,
      "start": 1366.766,
      "end": 1369.2,
      "text": "闭源模型如果只是略强一点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 603,
      "start": 1369.266,
      "end": 1370.466,
      "text": "却贵很多",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 604,
      "start": 1370.7,
      "end": 1372.666,
      "text": "很多企业会改用开放模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 605,
      "start": 1373.0,
      "end": 1374.6,
      "text": "闭源模型必须在关键",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 606,
      "start": 1374.6,
      "end": 1376.4,
      "text": "任务上强到无法替代",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 607,
      "start": 1376.666,
      "end": 1379.966,
      "text": "或者在产品体验上省心得足够明显",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 608,
      "start": 1380.2,
      "end": 1382.766,
      "text": "否则开源模型每进步一步",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 609,
      "start": 1382.9,
      "end": 1385.5,
      "text": "闭源模型的中低端收入就少一块",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 610,
      "start": 1385.733,
      "end": 1388.133,
      "text": "Muse Glimmer也会推动AI agent",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 611,
      "start": 1388.566,
      "end": 1390.466,
      "text": "从玩具走向基础设施",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 612,
      "start": 1390.7,
      "end": 1393.733,
      "text": "以前很多agent演示看起来很聪明",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 613,
      "start": 1393.933,
      "end": 1396.6,
      "text": "但实际运行成本高延迟长",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 614,
      "start": 1396.666,
      "end": 1397.9,
      "text": "隐私风险大",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 615,
      "start": 1397.966,
      "end": 1400.4,
      "text": "把一部分能力放到本地之后",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 616,
      "start": 1400.566,
      "end": 1403.133,
      "text": "agent可以更安静的处理日常任务",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 617,
      "start": 1403.3,
      "end": 1404.9,
      "text": "它不需要每次都上云",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 618,
      "start": 1405.1,
      "end": 1406.866,
      "text": "不需要每一步都花钱",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 619,
      "start": 1407.166,
      "end": 1409.766,
      "text": "也不需要把所有私人资料交出去",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 620,
      "start": 1409.8,
      "end": 1411.366,
      "text": "这就是它的流量点",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 621,
      "start": 1411.8,
      "end": 1413.733,
      "text": "Meta不是在送一个模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 622,
      "start": 1413.966,
      "end": 1415.4,
      "text": "而是在告诉市场",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 623,
      "start": 1415.9,
      "end": 1418.666,
      "text": "AI的权力不一定只能往云端集中",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 624,
      "start": 1418.8,
      "end": 1420.733,
      "text": "普通设备也可以有智能",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 625,
      "start": 1420.866,
      "end": 1422.566,
      "text": "小团队也可以有底座",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 626,
      "start": 1422.9,
      "end": 1424.566,
      "text": "开发者也可以有退路",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 627,
      "start": 1424.6,
      "end": 1426.133,
      "text": "这个故事比单纯",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 628,
      "start": 1426.133,
      "end": 1428.1,
      "text": "参数发布更有传播性",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 629,
      "start": 1428.166,
      "end": 1429.2,
      "text": "因为它集中了",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 630,
      "start": 1429.2,
      "end": 1431.4,
      "text": "很多人对AI垄断的焦虑",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 631,
      "start": 1431.5,
      "end": 1434.533,
      "text": "所以缪斯glimmer值得被单独拿出来讲",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 632,
      "start": 1434.733,
      "end": 1435.4,
      "text": "不是因为它",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 633,
      "start": 1435.4,
      "end": 1437.9,
      "text": "一夜之间改写大模型格局",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 634,
      "start": 1438.0,
      "end": 1439.3,
      "text": "而是因为它把一个被",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 635,
      "start": 1439.3,
      "end": 1441.133,
      "text": "忽略的问题摆到台面",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 636,
      "start": 1441.366,
      "end": 1443.766,
      "text": "AI普及到底靠更大的模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 637,
      "start": 1443.933,
      "end": 1446.4,
      "text": "还是靠更容易被部署的模型",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 638,
      "start": 1446.733,
      "end": 1448.666,
      "text": "亿元巨头会继续冲天花板",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 639,
      "start": 1448.666,
      "end": 1450.966,
      "text": "但真正改变日常工作的往往",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 640,
      "start": 1450.966,
      "end": 1453.333,
      "text": "是那些能被普通人装进电脑",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 641,
      "start": 1453.4,
      "end": 1454.366,
      "text": "接近流程",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    },
    {
      "id": 642,
      "start": 1454.4,
      "end": 1455.8,
      "text": "反复修改的东西",
      "source": "source_caption",
      "timing_uncertain": false
    }
  ]
}