{
  "text": "化繁為簡。請聽沈雲聰說財經。\n内战\n过去这四年多\n全世界我想都知道\n关注的是俄乌大战\n还有去年才爆发的美伊战争\n那国际媒体几乎都把苏丹\n这场正在进行中的战争\n几乎都给忘记了\n那这场内战\n其实是持续很多年的\n只是它最新一轮\n是从2023年4月开始\n从那个时间起算\n到现在正式已经迈入了第四年\n經濟學人說\n这可以说是21世纪\n这二十几年来地表上最惨烈的战争之一\n擁有700萬人口的蘇丹首都喀土穆\n现在很多地方已经变成了废墟\n有超过1400万人流离失所\n那为什么经济学人这个礼拜\n突然又提起这场内战呢\n主要是因为今天的中东产油国\n已经承担不起另外一场恶化的战争了\n我们知道中东生产的石油\n主要靠两条航道\n一條是霍爾木茲海峽\n另外一条是红海\n霍姆兹海峡不用说了\n现在被伊朗卡了脖子\n原本很多油輪\n现在只好改从红海出发\n可是上个礼拜我们看到了\n伊朗支持的胡塞组织\n跑去攻擊紅海上的沙烏地油輪\n现在搞到很多中东产油国\n非常的焦躁\n他们非常需要一个\n更安全稳定的红海才行\n可是苏丹就在红海边上\n也就是说苏丹一天的局势不稳定\n红海也一天没有办法安全\n这就是为什么今天\n经济学人特别要来关注\n苏丹这场进行中的内战\n因为如果没有处理好的话\n接下来牵动的\n就是一个更大的地缘政治势力的消长\n那比方说我刚刚看到\n他网站上点阅率最高的另外一篇文章\n标题真的吓了我一跳\n他说中国现在是世界石油强国\nChina is now the world's great oil power\n有这么一个标题\n我心想什么时候中国变成了石油输出国了\n结果原来不是\n经济学人所谓中国成为石油强权\n不是因为中国突然挖到了石油\n具备石油出口的条件了\n而是因为它掌握了石油进口的实力\n也因为它掌握了石油进口的数量\n所以有了影响\n有了左右国际油价的筹码\n比方说大家还记得吗\n美国在2月28号开始打伊朗的时候\n那我们节目里头也有说\n国际油价可能会因此飙高\n甚至飙破150 200都有可能\n结果呢\n过去这段时间来的国际油价相对的稳定\n为什么会这样子呢\n经济学人说\n那是因为从今年2月到6月\n中国把原油的进口量砍掉了一半\n每一天都少买550万桶\n有专家去算过\n中国这么一砍\n大概可以让布兰特原油少涨了30美金以上\n这在国际石油市场上是前所未见的一个现象\n因为过去我们知道\n国际油价都是由石油输出国来决定的\n他们如果想要油价高\n就会宣布我们集体\n大家一起降低产量\n他们想要油价低\n就会拼命的增加产出\n所以怎么样\n其他国家像我们这样的进口国\n就只能摸摸鼻子让他们玩\n我们这些进口国如果想要反过来\n用限制需求把价格给压低\n基本上是做不到的\n但是現在經濟學人發現\n有了中国之后\n这些石油输出国已经不能再为所欲为了\n因为中国也能靠着它的进口实力来左右价格了\n经济学人甚至引用一位石油交易商的话说\n他说中国就是新的OPEC\n那中国凭什么可以左右石油市场呢\n经济学人提出了三点\n那如果大家有在玩商品的话\n一定要仔细清\n第一呢\n是国家的石油库存\n2026年出之前的那一年\n原本的国际市场是担心\n供給嚴重過剩了\n所以油价被压得很低\n也就是在那段时间\n中国趁着便宜\n大量的掃進兩億桶\n根据交易员估计\n中國在美伊戰爭爆發前的\n这一批采购\n為全球油價增加了10到20美元\n把全球油價拉高了約10到20美元\n大概10到20块美金\n再來，第二招是出口管制\n因为中国也是全球第二大的炼油国\n本来就是亚洲很多重要油品的供应商\n可是就在今年3月\n也就是美伊戰爭開打之後\n中國政府要求他國內的煉油廠\n停止签新的出口合约\n很多已经签的也不能再出货了\n總之2月到6月這段期間\n中国的成品油的出口\n几乎腰斩\n剩下一半掉到一天只有43萬桶\n再來第三招\n就是壓低中國自己國內的需求\n根据今年6月最新的数据\n中国炼油厂的原油加工量\n比去年同期每天少了270万桶\n它的汽油产量也减少了14%\n柴油和航空燃油也各掉了21%\n根據國際能源總署統計\n美伊戰爭開打的頭兩個月\n中国的汽油和煤油的用量\n比前一年的同期少了10%\n总之呢\n伊朗的這場戰爭\n經濟學人說已經證明了\n在实务上\n中國作為一個國家\n就可以把全球的石油市场\n稳住好几个月\n所以他说\n中國是新的能源強國\n所以接下来\n大家如果在那要賭能源商品的\n你不是只看美國的需求\n不是只看輸出國的政策跟風向\n相反的\n你现在可能要把中国的因素\n也纳入考虑了\n那這就要講到這個禮拜\n第二個跟我們亞洲有關的封面故事\n談中國的AI\n因为这个话题\n显然不是只有跟亚洲有关\n而且老实说\n我这个礼拜把整本杂志读完\n我有一个非常强烈的感觉\n就是我发现经济学人\n他现在真的非常关注中国\n这可以说是我这么多年来读经济学人\n我发现这本老杂志一个非常重大的变化\n老听众可能知道\n我跟经济学人开始最早的合作\n大概就是30年前\n当时经济学人每个礼拜出刊前\n会把他的目录传真给我\n我选了三篇文章之后\n他们就会把稿子传来给我\n让我来翻译\n那个时候的经济学人\n整本杂志的主要内容\n除了后面是以\nBusiness and Finance\n来区分之外\n前面基本上是以\n地表上的区域来分类的\n比方说亚洲板块\n美洲板块\n欧洲板块\n那唯一的例外就是經濟學院的總部、英國以及全球第一大經濟體、美國。\n他们是以单一国家的姿态\n拥有属于自己的区块\n那这个情况呢\n一直到2012年才开始改变\n在这之前呢\n中国相关的新闻\n是跟其他亚洲国家\n放在一起的亚洲板块的\n而且常常呢\n還裡頭的內容沒有半篇來自中國的報導\n可是从2012年开始\n经济学人为中国这个国家\n單一開始了一个中国板块\n然後呢\n接下來每個禮拜\n都有兩三篇以上的中國新聞\n當時《經濟學人》\n開這個新的板塊的時候的解釋\n就是說中國太重要了\n而一直到這個禮拜\n我發現整本雜誌當中\n有很多篇文章\n幾乎都會提到中國的角色\n你把整本雜誌看完\n你會發現\n過去地表上\n幾乎每一個地理地區\n所發生的重大政治和經濟事件\n都會跟美國有關\n中美洲的政變\n歐洲的外交政策\n中東的能源等等\n背後幾乎都會有美國的影響力\n可是今天\n你從《經濟學人》的觀察角度\n你可以發現\n已經不能忽略\n中國所扮演的角色了\n除了我們剛剛談的能源市場之外\n接下來在席捲全球的AI科技上\n根據這個禮拜的封面故事\n他就很關注中國最新的發展\n以及目前為止所帶來的影響\n從這裡來看看全球性的變化\n《經濟學人》基本上發現\n雖然目前為止\n中美之間在AI的競賽上互有領先\n可是他們看到了一個非常明確的發展\n就是中國正在快速的適應這個AI時代\n中國正在快速的適應這個AI時代\n對於AI在接下來可能為總體經濟\n和整個社會\n特别是劳动市场\n带来的巨大改变\n中国政府正在积极做准备\n这是经济学人这一期封面故事\n想要为大家追踪报道的重点\n首先\n中国的AI模型\n经济学人说\n正在以非常快速的速度\n变得又大又聪明\nBigger and cleverer\n第二\n针对AI所需要的基础建设\n中国也在快速的成长当中\n没有错\n美国正在想尽办法打压中国\n可是经济学人说\n中国显然已经找到了对应的方法\n比方说跑到东南亚\n去租赁资料中心来用\n再来第三也是最重要的\n接下来中国AI政策\n很重要的一个重点\n将会放在应用面\n它要让整个经济体\n都能够导入AI\n使用AI\n经济学人的中国特派记者\n亲自走访了很多城市\n那他就发现了\n现在中国有好几个产业的领域\n的确已经明显感受到\nAI所带来的冲击\n比方说货运业\n比方說貨運業\n他說現在有越來越多的貨運司機會被自動化給取代\n那过去司机出外都会有两个人在车上\n彼此还可以照应跟聊天\n可是呢\n现在因为很多被自动化取代了\n很多的司机只剩下自己一个人上路\n在车上滑滑手机啊\n看看短影音\n看看微短劇啊\n这是第一个已经受到明确影响的产业\n再来第二个\n刚刚讲了短影音\n讲了微短距啊\n目前正在受到巨大影响的\n就是影视产业\n现在很多的微短剧都是AI制作的\n从编剧到拍摄到配音等等\n大概都是AI\n接下来在中国最擅长的制造业\n经济学院说\n还会有更多的工厂要导入人型机器人\n根據摩根士丹利的估計\n从现在开始的未来五年\n中国人型机器人的销量\n可能会成长高达九倍\n所以紧接而来的问题就是\n对于未来总体经济\n所可能面临的冲击\n那中国政府准备好了吗\n如果即将会带来\n庞大的失业问题\n带来巨大的社会动荡\n那么对于这个高度重视\n社会稳定的中国共产党来说\n还有能力应付吗\n这就是为什么\n这篇文章的标题说\nAI是中國共產黨的風險\nAI是中國共產黨的風險\n他试图解释why\n这个礼拜他的第三个封面\n是关于经济学人自己的母国英国\n因为他们发现\n虽然大家都说\nAI好好用\n可是太多人用也是个问题\n因为现在英国很多大企业\n还有英国政府自己\n现在已经成为AI时代的\n第一批受害者之一\n怎么说呢\n经济学人这篇文章\n從1970年代的一個法案講起\n因為當時英國為了鼓勵工會成立\n然后避免那些大老板大企业\n因为某个员工加入了工会\n成为工会干部\n就想办法的把它开除\n把它弄走\n所以英國政府在勞動法裡面\n加了一條所謂臨時救濟的條款\n根据这个条款\n如果有工会干部\n工会成员或者是员工\n被老板被企业不当解雇的话\n可以引用这个法案\n引用这个法条去申诉\n而法官呢\n可以根據這項法令去要求企業\n你必須在審理期間\n繼續的支付員工薪資\n或者是讓這位員工復職\n總之呢\n這是一個維護勞工權利的重要法案\n只是呢\n這個條款\n平常是很少用到的\n過去很多英國人\n自己也都不知道\n自己有这个权利\n所以呢\n過去跟這個條款有關的案件\n每年經濟學人說還不到20件\n可是现在他们发现\n這兩年全英國12個行政區\n平均每一个区就有20件以上\n也就是过去一整个英国只有20件\n现在每一个区都有20件\n等于成长了100倍以上\n那为什么会突然成长呢\nAI就是因为AI\n因为以前员工\n如果真的要走法律申诉的这条路\n要么得自己非常熟悉法条\n要么得花大钱请律师\n而且就算你花了钱去申诉\n最后可能成功的几率\n也不是那么高\n所以过去很少人会这么做的\n可是现在有了AI\n整个投报率变得不一样了\n第一大家不用再请律师\n不用再花大钱了\n光是AI就可以帮你完成一份\n非常像样的诉状\n你就可以拿去法院告你的老板\n那经济学院说\n这就是今天AI时代\n所面临的一个新的问题\n当你的员工可以快速的利用AI提起诉讼\n可是呢\n法官却没有办法用AI来做判决\n因为每一个诉状都得自己来阅读\n每一个案件都得靠法官自己花时间来审理\n再加上现在很多法官发现\n这种用AI写出来的诉状\n常常出现所谓的AI法律废文\n要么就是瞎拍出来的案例跟法条\n要么是引用完全无关的法案\n所以很多法官现在都很生气\n说你们这些律师\n你们这些当事人\n有的AI真的是都在乱搞\n更严重的是\n现在每一个法院\n因为AI的出现都怎么样\n案件堆积如山\n有多麼嚴重？經濟學人說\n那些最近\n如果你最近送案子\n他說可能要到2030年\n你才有機會开庭\n也就是說\n原本AI的誕生是一件好事\n它可以促進人民在法律上的平等\n可以讓手無寸鐵的小員工\n可是今天濫用AI的結果\n反而造成了正義\n造成了公益大賽車\n正義也許會有來到的一天\n可是現在看起來要拖很多年\n這就是今天英國遇到的問題之一\n當然也是全世界不是只有英國\n大家即將要面臨的一個麻煩\n所以我的意思是說\n今天AI所帶來的衝擊是普世性的\n是全球性的\n不是只有英國有\n美國也是一樣\n像剛剛讲的\n中國勞動市場面臨的問題\n美國英國全世界都同樣要面對的\n倒是這個封面故事\n提到幾個觀察點\n我覺得也蠻值得提出來\n給大家一起來參考跟思考的\n首先第一經濟學人說\n中國現在正在全面的培養AI人才\n現在從小學中學開始\n中國的學校都增加了很多AI的課程\n我最近有個上海朋友就來跟我說\n他說他們大陸的小學\n已經取消英文課了\n已經取消英文課\n我不知道真的假的\n但他說取消了\n但是他们认为\n未來的英文已經不再重要了\n因为有了AI\n所以在学校里头\n就把取消英文課後的課程時間\n用来教AI\n因为中国政府已经看到了\n未来要在所有企业导入AI流程\n就需要更多工程师才行\n而且话说回来\n现在很多缺工的工作\n老实说年轻人也没什么兴趣\n像刚刚讲的货运司机\n公司常辛苦\n將來都會被AI\n还有会用AI的人来取代\n前两天才跟一个美国朋友在聊天\n美国现在很多公司也很头痛\n他们都知道AI的导入很关键\n很需要\n可是他们就是找不到\n足够的合适的人才\n所以大家也都很认真的都在讨论\n未来我们的人才从哪里来\n而讲到人才\n大家都要想办法投资\n那讲到投资AI\n这期还有一篇很有意思的文章\n我们之前不是一直在说\n中國的AI比美國便宜\n中国的开发成本比美国低\n但是还是很好用吗\n那为什么中国的开发成本可以低呢\n那很多人就说\n那是因为中国跑去偷偷蒸馏\n人家美国的模型\n所以省了很多钱\n还有人说\n中国本来就什么都比较便宜\n电力成本也便宜\n晶片成本也便宜\n劳动成本也便宜\n所以整个成本才会这么低\n尤其现在中国那么内卷\n政府也不敢乱花钱\n所以大家都只能省吃俭用\n不过经济学人这篇文章\n提供了一个不一样的解释\n他说中国的AI模型\n开发成本之所以低\n以上都可能是原因\n可是还不能完全解释这个现象\n因为呢\n你如果只是把中国AI烧钱烧的比较少\n就说是中国缺资金啦\n遇到了什么问题\n其实太过简化了这个现象\n经济学人说\n实际上中国根本就不缺钱\n尤其我们知道\n当中国共产党想要做什么的时候\n钱从来就不是问题\n经济学人说\n真正卡住AI企业支出的\n其实是他们有钱\n也没地方花\n怎么说呢\n第一\n因为美国的技术出口的管制\n它让很多中国企业\n买不到最尖端\n最好也最昂贵的AI晶片\n它就以阿里巴巴做例子\n阿里巴巴去年就宣布\n它原本打算在2026年到2028年\n投资530亿美金在AI上\n当然这笔钱跟Amazon\n跟Alphabet比起来\n还是小巫见大巫\n可是即便是这样\n它还是可能花不出去\n因为原本阿里巴巴是跟台积电买晶片的\n可是美国一制裁\n它被迫只能回頭找華為\n所以这是第一点\n它有钱也没地方花\n再来第二个是需求面\n经济学人说\n相较于美国公司\n中国的这些企业在导入IT\n導入AI的預算上\n向来是小气很多的\n中国的GDP大概是美国的三分之二\n可是中國企業花在這套軟體上的錢\n加起来往往不到美国企业的十分之一\n所以当需求面大家不想花大钱的时候\n當然會影響最前端AI公司投資者的意願\n最后更重要的一点是前面提到的\n中国跟美国之间的战略方向完全不一样\n美国的AI公司现在的做法是一直砸钱\n去打造更聪明\n更强大的晶片\n然后去塞满更多的Data Center\n可是中国不是采取这样的策略的\n中国共产党的AI战略重点\n我们前面讲过\n在于把这个AI的技术\n扩散到更大的整个经济体\n所以經濟學人的意思是說\n总体来说\n中国的模型之所以花比较少的钱\n不是因为中国缺钱\n而是因为它太过精打细算\n太過量入為出\n为出了\n那这固然听起来好像是美德\n不过在AI开发这件事情上\n很可能也会倒过来\n成为中国自己的限制\n因为在很多地方\n中国的data center\n其实已经出现了非常紧迫\n不够用的现象了\n中国有一些地方在跑模型的速度\n是远远落后于美国的\n就是因为它资料中心的建制\n相对的来得保守\n当然接下来还要面对的是\n人才的问题\n中国能不能把更多国际上的AI人才\n吸引到中国来呢\n那关于这一点\n经济学人这个礼拜也有一篇分析\n他倒过来提醒他的西方读者要注意\n中国人才正在归队\n西方正在面临人才两时的现象\n首先根据经济学人的数字\n中国学生赴海外留学的热潮\n正在明显的降温\n2019年中国出国留学的人数\n高达70万人\n但是这个数字到了2025年\n只剩下了57万\n回到了相当于2016年左右的水准\n现在有越来越多的中国年轻人\n他过去会认为\n美国欧洲的文凭\n象征着前途跟地位\n据说他们现在正在重新评估\n这些海外文凭的成本效益了\n首先在成本方面\n不用说了\n出国留学的成本是更高的\n难度也更大了\n美国政府现在已经很多签证\n都不发给中国留学生的\n而且你就算去的城\n你的平均花费\n经济学院这边的数字是说\n要60万人民币\n比2023年要增加了20%\n那成本高一就算了\n那報酬率呢\n看起来也正在降低\n因为很多中国留学生在毕业之后\n現在留在美國工作的機會少了很多\n所以造成很多人的回流\n2025年\n所谓海归的中国留学生人数\n高达53万\n相当于出国人数的94%\n也就是说\n而回來之後也在中國帶來了一個所謂海歸過剩的現象，也因此稀釋了這些海外學歷的稀有性。\n据说这些海归派\n一个月的起薪\n现在是12800块人民币\n相较之下\n中国本土大学毕业生的起薪\n是10700\n所以意思是说\n薪資已經差距不大了\n所以你花了这么多钱\n去好不容易留学一番\n结果回来\n薪水也没有比本土的高多少\n这也就是让很多人觉得\n我不如留在國內\n留在清华\n这两个学校现在已经是全球排名前15名的\nCP值还更高\n对不对\n所以这种中国留学生退潮的现象\n对英国对美国这些大学来说\n當然叫做人才兩失\n才就不用说了\n这些大学少了这些留学生\n真的是损失惨重\n所以很多的学校也因此被迫必须关闭课程\n必须裁减老师的人数\n当然经济学人认为\n更大的一个问题是\n你也因此少了很多\n未来可能可以留在你国家\n为你服务的人才\n当然对经济学人来说\n他还是对他的英国\n美国的所谓民主阵营\n是比较乐观的\n因为他在这个专题里头\n最后一段他就说了\n他认为民主\n毕竟还是比独裁世界\n更容易重塑自己\n重新调整脚步\n意思是说\n未来在AI的冲击底下\n也许现阶段\n西方国家面临的压力跟挑战\n是很大的\n但是他们显然认为\n会比中国更有能力因应\n当然是不是这样\n我们还是得看下去才知道\n倒是我是认为\n现在如果地缘政治\n是确定往这个方向走的话\n也许现在接下来这段时间\n我们要去追究\n要去关注的\n不是谁又领先了\n谁又落后了\n谁会赢谁会输\n而是呢\n可能要去观察接下来\n西方阵营也好\n中国阵营也好\n谁可以在没有对方的情况下\n好好的活下去\n可能才是重点\n好了\n以上就是今天的沈云聪说财经\n好像啦啦咋咋講了蠻多篇的\n无论如何\n我把所有的文章也都同样放在\n我的底下說明欄當中\n对了\n我的YT观众\n可能误会了我所谓的放在底下\n因為很多影片可能都會放在這個畫面上\n但我们因为只是podcast\n我的画面基本上是进行不动的\n但是我所有的连结都会放在\n我底下的說明欄當中\n大家可以一个一个去点阅\n好谢谢大家的收听\n我们下礼拜见\n拜拜",
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      "text": "这场正在进行中的战争",
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      "text": "几乎都给忘记了",
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      "text": "其实是持续很多年的",
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      "start": 51.1,
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      "text": "是从2023年4月开始",
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      "start": 53.7,
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      "text": "从那个时间起算",
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      "text": "經濟學人說",
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      "text_original": "经济学员说",
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      "text": "这可以说是21世纪",
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      "start": 65.62,
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      "text": "擁有700萬人口的蘇丹首都喀土穆",
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      "text_original": "拥有700万人口的苏丹首都克土木",
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      "start": 84.5,
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      "text": "所以有了影响",
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      "text": "有了左右国际油价的筹码",
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      "text": "比方说大家还记得吗",
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      "text": "美国在2月28号开始打伊朗的时候",
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      "text": "那我们节目里头也有说",
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      "text": "国际油价可能会因此飙高",
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      "text": "甚至飙破150 200都有可能",
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      "text": "结果呢",
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      "text": "过去这段时间来的国际油价相对的稳定",
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      "text": "中国把原油的进口量砍掉了一半",
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      "text": "每一天都少买550万桶",
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      "text": "有专家去算过",
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      "text": "大概可以让布兰特原油少涨了30美金以上",
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      "text": "这在国际石油市场上是前所未见的一个现象",
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      "text": "国际油价都是由石油输出国来决定的",
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      "text": "就会宣布我们集体",
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      "text": "大家一起降低产量",
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      "text": "其他国家像我们这样的进口国",
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      "text": "就只能摸摸鼻子让他们玩",
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      "text": "用限制需求把价格给压低",
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      "text": "基本上是做不到的",
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      "text": "但是現在經濟學人發現",
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      "text": "这些石油输出国已经不能再为所欲为了",
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      "text": "一定要仔细清",
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      "text": "第一呢",
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      "start": 289.24,
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      "text": "2026年出之前的那一年",
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      "text": "大量的掃進兩億桶",
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      "text": "根据交易员估计",
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      "text": "中國在美伊戰爭爆發前的",
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      "text": "这一批采购",
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      "start": 311.18,
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      "text": "為全球油價增加了10到20美元",
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      "text_original": "为全球油价增加了10到20美金",
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      "text_original": "把全球油价拉高了",
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      "text": "再來，第二招是出口管制",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "再来的第二招是出口管制",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 322.98,
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      "text": "因为中国也是全球第二大的炼油国",
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      "start": 326.82,
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      "text": "本来就是亚洲很多重要油品的供应商",
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    {
      "start": 330.14,
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      "text": "可是就在今年3月",
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    },
    {
      "start": 331.88,
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      "text": "也就是美伊戰爭開打之後",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "也就是美伊战争开打之后",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 334.02,
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      "text": "中國政府要求他國內的煉油廠",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "中国政府要求他国内的炼油厂",
      "correction_applied": true,
      "correction_source": "llm_correct_a_presegmentation"
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    {
      "start": 336.94,
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      "text": "停止签新的出口合约",
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    {
      "start": 340.0,
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      "text": "很多已经签的也不能再出货了",
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    {
      "start": 342.84,
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      "text": "總之2月到6月這段期間",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11145012767602366,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "总之2月到4月这段期间",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 345.3,
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      "text": "中国的成品油的出口",
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    {
      "start": 347.6,
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      "text": "几乎腰斩",
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    },
    {
      "start": 348.58,
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      "text": "剩下一半掉到一天只有43萬桶",
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11266289966207155,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "剩下一半掉到一天只有43万桶",
      "correction_applied": true,
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      "start": 351.94,
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      "text": "再來第三招",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "再来第三招",
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    {
      "start": 352.94,
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      "text": "就是壓低中國自己國內的需求",
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      "text_original": "就是压低中国自己国内的需求",
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    {
      "start": 355.9,
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      "text": "根据今年6月最新的数据",
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    {
      "start": 358.36,
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      "text": "中国炼油厂的原油加工量",
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    {
      "start": 360.96,
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      "text": "比去年同期每天少了270万桶",
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      "start": 366.08,
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      "text": "它的汽油产量也减少了14%",
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    {
      "start": 370.44,
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      "text": "柴油和航空燃油也各掉了21%",
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    {
      "start": 374.56,
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      "text": "根據國際能源總署統計",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "根据国际能源总署统计",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 377.32,
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      "text": "美伊戰爭開打的頭兩個月",
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      "text_original": "美伊战争开打的头两个月",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 380.68,
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      "text": "中国的汽油和煤油的用量",
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    {
      "start": 383.22,
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      "text": "比前一年的同期少了10%",
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    {
      "start": 386.3,
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      "text": "总之呢",
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    {
      "start": 387.76,
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      "text": "伊朗的這場戰爭",
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      "text_original": "伊朗的这场战争",
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    {
      "start": 389.14,
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      "text": "經濟學人說已經證明了",
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      "text_original": "经济学人说已经证明了",
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      "start": 390.62,
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      "text": "在实务上",
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      "start": 391.68,
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      "text": "中國作為一個國家",
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      "text_original": "中国作为一个国家",
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      "start": 393.6,
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      "text": "就可以把全球的石油市场",
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      "start": 396.06,
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      "text": "稳住好几个月",
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      "start": 397.8,
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      "text": "所以他说",
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    {
      "start": 398.62,
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      "text": "中國是新的能源強國",
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      "text_original": "中国是新的能源强国",
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      "start": 401.42,
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      "text": "所以接下来",
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    {
      "start": 402.76,
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      "text": "大家如果在那要賭能源商品的",
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      "text_original": "大家如果在那要赌能源商品的话",
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    {
      "start": 405.16,
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      "text": "你不是只看美國的需求",
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      "text_original": "你不是只看美国的需求",
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      "start": 407.74,
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      "text": "不是只看輸出國的政策跟風向",
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      "text_original": "不是只看输出国的政策跟风向",
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    {
      "start": 411.68,
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      "text": "相反的",
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    {
      "start": 412.26,
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      "text": "你现在可能要把中国的因素",
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    {
      "start": 415.26,
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      "text": "也纳入考虑了",
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      "text_original": "也拿入考虑了",
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      "start": 416.58,
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      "text": "那這就要講到這個禮拜",
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      "text_original": "那这就要讲到这个礼拜",
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    {
      "start": 418.38,
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      "text": "第二個跟我們亞洲有關的封面故事",
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      "text_original": "第二个跟我们亚洲有关的封面故事",
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    {
      "start": 421.98,
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      "text": "談中國的AI",
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      "text_original": "谈中国的AI",
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      "start": 424.06,
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      "text": "因为这个话题",
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      "start": 426.2,
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      "text": "显然不是只有跟亚洲有关",
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      "start": 428.22,
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      "text": "而且老实说",
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      "start": 429.24,
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      "text": "我这个礼拜把整本杂志读完",
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      "start": 431.36,
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      "text": "我有一个非常强烈的感觉",
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      "start": 432.92,
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      "text": "就是我发现经济学人",
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      "start": 435.18,
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      "text": "他现在真的非常关注中国",
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      "start": 437.62,
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      "text": "这可以说是我这么多年来读经济学人",
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      "start": 441.62,
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      "text": "我发现这本老杂志一个非常重大的变化",
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      "start": 445.08,
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      "text": "老听众可能知道",
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      "start": 447.1,
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      "text": "我跟经济学人开始最早的合作",
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    {
      "start": 449.64,
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      "text": "大概就是30年前",
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    {
      "start": 451.18,
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      "text": "当时经济学人每个礼拜出刊前",
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    {
      "start": 454.12,
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      "text": "会把他的目录传真给我",
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      "start": 456.0,
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      "text": "我选了三篇文章之后",
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      "start": 458.36,
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      "text": "他们就会把稿子传来给我",
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      "start": 461.22,
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      "text": "让我来翻译",
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    {
      "start": 462.1,
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      "text": "那个时候的经济学人",
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    {
      "start": 464.26,
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      "text": "整本杂志的主要内容",
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    {
      "start": 466.4,
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      "text": "除了后面是以",
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      "start": 468.16,
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      "text": "Business and Finance",
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      "start": 469.46,
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      "text": "来区分之外",
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      "start": 471.12,
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      "text": "前面基本上是以",
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      "start": 473.2,
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      "text": "地表上的区域来分类的",
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      "start": 475.36,
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      "text": "比方说亚洲板块",
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      "start": 477.02,
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      "text": "美洲板块",
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      "start": 478.54,
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      "text": "欧洲板块",
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      "text": "那唯一的例外就是經濟學院的總部、英國以及全球第一大經濟體、美國。",
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      "text_original": "那維俄的例外就是經濟學院的總部、英國以及全球第一大經濟體、美國。",
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      "start": 490.44,
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      "text": "他们是以单一国家的姿态",
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      "start": 493.3,
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      "text": "拥有属于自己的区块",
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      "text": "那这个情况呢",
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      "start": 497.02,
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      "text": "一直到2012年才开始改变",
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      "start": 499.32,
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      "text": "在这之前呢",
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      "start": 500.46,
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      "text": "中国相关的新闻",
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      "text": "是跟其他亚洲国家",
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      "start": 503.76,
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      "text": "放在一起的亚洲板块的",
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      "start": 505.46,
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      "text": "而且常常呢",
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      "start": 506.64,
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      "text": "還裡頭的內容沒有半篇來自中國的報導",
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      "text_original": "还里头没有半篇来自中国的报道",
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      "text": "可是从2012年开始",
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      "start": 511.38,
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      "text": "经济学人为中国这个国家",
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      "start": 514.4,
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      "text": "單一開始了一个中国板块",
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      "text_original": "单一开了一个中国板块",
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      "start": 517.14,
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      "text": "然後呢",
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      "text_original": "然后呢",
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      "start": 517.92,
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      "text": "接下來每個禮拜",
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      "text_original": "接下来每个礼拜",
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      "text": "都有兩三篇以上的中國新聞",
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      "text_original": "都有两三篇以上的中国新闻",
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      "text": "當時《經濟學人》",
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      "text_original": "当时经济学人",
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      "start": 522.92,
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      "text": "開這個新的板塊的時候的解釋",
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      "text_original": "开这个新的板块的时候的解释",
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      "text": "就是說中國太重要了",
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      "text_original": "就是说中国太重要了",
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      "text": "而一直到這個禮拜",
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      "text_original": "而一直到这个礼拜",
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      "start": 529.78,
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      "text": "我發現整本雜誌當中",
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      "text_original": "我发现整本杂志当中",
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      "text": "有很多篇文章",
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      "start": 533.38,
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      "text": "幾乎都會提到中國的角色",
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      "text_original": "几乎都会提到中国的角色",
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      "start": 535.9,
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      "text": "你把整本雜誌看完",
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      "text_original": "你把整本杂志看完",
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      "start": 537.42,
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      "text": "你會發現",
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      "text_original": "你会发现",
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      "start": 538.08,
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      "text": "過去地表上",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "过去地表上",
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      "start": 539.82,
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      "text": "幾乎每一個地理地區",
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      "text_original": "几乎每一个地理地区",
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      "start": 540.96,
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      "text": "所發生的重大政治和經濟事件",
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      "text_original": "所发生的重大政治和经济事件",
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      "start": 543.7,
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      "text": "都會跟美國有關",
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      "text_original": "都会跟美国有关",
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      "text": "中美洲的政變",
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      "text_original": "中美洲的政变",
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      "start": 546.5,
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      "text": "歐洲的外交政策",
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      "text_original": "欧洲的外交政策",
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    {
      "start": 548.12,
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      "text": "中東的能源等等",
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      "text_original": "中东的能源等等",
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      "text_original": "背后几乎都会有美国的影响力",
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      "text": "可是今天",
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      "start": 553.28,
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      "text": "你從《經濟學人》的觀察角度",
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      "text_original": "你从经济学人的观察角度",
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      "text": "你可以發現",
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      "text_original": "你可以发现",
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      "text": "已經不能忽略",
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      "text_original": "已经不能忽略",
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      "text": "中國所扮演的角色了",
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      "text_original": "中国所扮演的角色了",
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      "start": 559.06,
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      "text": "除了我們剛剛談的能源市場之外",
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      "text_original": "除了我们刚刚谈的能源市场之外",
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      "text": "接下來在席捲全球的AI科技上",
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      "text_original": "接下来在席卷全球的AI科技上",
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      "start": 565.04,
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      "text": "根據這個禮拜的封面故事",
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      "text_original": "根据这个礼拜的封面故事",
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      "text": "他就很關注中國最新的發展",
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      "text_original": "他就很关注中国最新的发展",
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      "text": "以及目前為止所帶來的影響",
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      "text_original": "以及目前为止所带来的影响",
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      "text": "從這裡來看看全球性的變化",
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      "text_original": "从这里来看看全球性的变化",
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      "text": "《經濟學人》基本上發現",
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      "text": "雖然目前為止",
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      "text_original": "虽然目前为止",
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      "text": "中美之間在AI的競賽上互有領先",
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      "text_original": "中美之间在AI的竞赛上互有领先",
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      "text": "可是他們看到了一個非常明確的發展",
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      "text_original": "可是他们看到了一个非常明确的发展",
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      "text_original": "对于AI在接下来可能为总体经济",
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      "text_original": "和整个社会",
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      "text": "中国政府正在积极做准备",
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      "text": "这是经济学人这一期封面故事",
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      "start": 607.2,
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      "text": "首先",
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      "text": "去租赁资料中心来用",
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      "start": 640.58,
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      "text": "经济学人的中国特派记者",
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      "text": "亲自走访了很多城市",
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      "start": 656.48,
      "end": 658.62,
      "text": "的确已经明显感受到",
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    {
      "start": 658.62,
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      "text": "AI所带来的冲击",
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      "start": 660.52,
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      "text": "比方说货运业",
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    {
      "start": 662.48,
      "end": 667.12,
      "text": "比方說貨運業\n他說現在有越來越多的貨運司機會被自動化給取代",
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      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.11013807875386784,
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      "text_original": "他说现在有越来越多的货银司机会被自动化给取代",
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      "start": 667.12,
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      "text": "那过去司机出外都会有两个人在车上",
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      "start": 670.86,
      "end": 673.1,
      "text": "彼此还可以照应跟聊天",
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      "start": 673.1,
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      "text": "可是呢",
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      "start": 673.98,
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      "text": "现在因为很多被自动化取代了",
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      "start": 676.1,
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      "text": "很多的司机只剩下自己一个人上路",
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      "start": 678.64,
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      "text": "在车上滑滑手机啊",
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      "start": 680.18,
      "end": 681.02,
      "text": "看看短影音",
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      "start": 681.02,
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      "text": "看看微短劇啊",
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      "text_original": "看看微短距啊",
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      "start": 682.28,
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      "text": "这是第一个已经受到明确影响的产业",
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      "start": 685.94,
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      "text": "再来第二个",
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      "start": 687.28,
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      "text": "讲了微短距啊",
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      "start": 689.64,
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      "text": "目前正在受到巨大影响的",
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      "start": 691.76,
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      "text": "就是影视产业",
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      "text": "现在很多的微短剧都是AI制作的",
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      "start": 696.38,
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      "text": "从编剧到拍摄到配音等等",
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      "text": "大概都是AI",
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      "start": 701.76,
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      "text": "接下来在中国最擅长的制造业",
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      "text": "经济学院说",
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      "text": "还会有更多的工厂要导入人型机器人",
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      "text": "根據摩根士丹利的估計",
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      "text_original": "根据摩根什坦里的估计",
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      "start": 711.68,
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      "text": "从现在开始的未来五年",
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      "text": "中国人型机器人的销量",
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      "text": "可能会成长高达九倍",
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      "start": 718.64,
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      "text": "所以紧接而来的问题就是",
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      "text": "对于未来总体经济",
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      "text": "所可能面临的冲击",
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      "text": "那中国政府准备好了吗",
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      "text": "如果即将会带来",
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      "start": 731.16,
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      "text": "庞大的失业问题",
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      "start": 732.52,
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      "start": 734.36,
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      "text": "那么对于这个高度重视",
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      "text": "社会稳定的中国共产党来说",
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      "start": 739.26,
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      "text": "还有能力应付吗",
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      "text": "这就是为什么",
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      "text": "这篇文章的标题说",
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    {
      "start": 744.6,
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      "text": "AI是中國共產黨的風險",
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      "text_original": "AI是中国共产党的风险",
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      "text": "AI是中國共產黨的風險",
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      "text_original": "AI是中国共产党的风险",
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      "text": "他试图解释why",
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      "start": 752.72,
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      "text": "这个礼拜他的第三个封面",
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    {
      "start": 754.88,
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      "text": "是关于经济学人自己的母国英国",
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      "end": 760.0,
      "text": "因为他们发现",
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      "start": 760.0,
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      "text": "虽然大家都说",
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      "text": "AI好好用",
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      "start": 762.62,
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      "text": "可是太多人用也是个问题",
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      "start": 765.62,
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      "text": "因为现在英国很多大企业",
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      "text": "还有英国政府自己",
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      "start": 769.68,
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      "text": "现在已经成为AI时代的",
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      "start": 772.8,
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      "text": "第一批受害者之一",
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      "start": 775.32,
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      "text": "怎么说呢",
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    {
      "start": 776.52,
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      "text": "经济学人这篇文章",
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    {
      "start": 777.64,
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      "text": "從1970年代的一個法案講起",
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      "text_original": "从1970年代的一个法案讲起",
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      "start": 780.58,
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      "text": "因為當時英國為了鼓勵工會成立",
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      "text_original": "因为当时英国为了鼓励工会成立",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 783.94,
      "end": 786.86,
      "text": "然后避免那些大老板大企业",
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    },
    {
      "start": 786.86,
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      "text": "因为某个员工加入了工会",
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    {
      "start": 789.7,
      "end": 790.84,
      "text": "成为工会干部",
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    {
      "start": 790.84,
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      "text": "就想办法的把它开除",
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    {
      "start": 793.08,
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      "text": "把它弄走",
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      "start": 794.0,
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      "text": "所以英國政府在勞動法裡面",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "所以英国政府在劳动法里面",
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      "start": 798.04,
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      "text": "加了一條所謂臨時救濟的條款",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "加了一条所谓临时救济的条款",
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      "start": 801.04,
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      "text": "根据这个条款",
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      "start": 802.58,
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      "text": "如果有工会干部",
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      "start": 804.22,
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      "text": "工会成员或者是员工",
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      "start": 806.16,
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      "text": "被老板被企业不当解雇的话",
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      "start": 809.28,
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      "text": "可以引用这个法案",
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      "start": 811.32,
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      "text": "引用这个法条去申诉",
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      "start": 813.58,
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      "text": "而法官呢",
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      "start": 814.88,
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      "text": "可以根據這項法令去要求企業",
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      "text_original": "可以根据这项法令去要求企业",
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      "start": 817.64,
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      "text": "你必須在審理期間",
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      "text_original": "你必须在审理期间",
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    {
      "start": 819.42,
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      "text": "繼續的支付員工薪資",
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      "text_original": "继续的支付员工薪资",
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      "text": "或者是讓這位員工復職",
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      "text_original": "或者是让这位员工复职",
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      "start": 824.68,
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      "text": "總之呢",
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      "text_original": "总之呢",
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      "start": 825.56,
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      "text": "這是一個維護勞工權利的重要法案",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "这是一个维护劳工权利的重要法案",
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      "text": "只是呢",
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      "text": "這個條款",
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      "text_original": "这个条款",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
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      "text": "平常是很少用到的",
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      "text": "過去很多英國人",
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      "text_original": "过去很多英国人",
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      "start": 834.68,
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      "text": "自己也都不知道",
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      "start": 835.62,
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      "text": "自己有这个权利",
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      "text": "所以呢",
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    {
      "start": 838.22,
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      "text": "過去跟這個條款有關的案件",
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      "text_original": "过去跟这个条款有关的案件",
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      "start": 840.26,
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      "text": "每年經濟學人說還不到20件",
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      "text_original": "每年经济学人说还不到20件",
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      "text": "可是现在他们发现",
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    {
      "start": 844.54,
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      "text": "這兩年全英國12個行政區",
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      "text_original": "这两年全英国12个行政区",
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      "text": "平均每一个区就有20件以上",
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      "start": 850.7,
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      "text": "也就是过去一整个英国只有20件",
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      "start": 853.32,
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      "text": "现在每一个区都有20件",
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    {
      "start": 855.3,
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      "text": "等于成长了100倍以上",
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      "start": 857.04,
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      "text": "那为什么会突然成长呢",
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      "text": "AI就是因为AI",
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      "text": "因为以前员工",
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    {
      "start": 862.48,
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      "text": "如果真的要走法律申诉的这条路",
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    {
      "start": 865.22,
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      "text": "要么得自己非常熟悉法条",
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      "start": 867.42,
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      "text": "要么得花大钱请律师",
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      "start": 870.02,
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      "text": "而且就算你花了钱去申诉",
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    {
      "start": 872.98,
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      "text": "最后可能成功的几率",
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      "start": 874.96,
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      "text": "也不是那么高",
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      "start": 876.1,
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      "text": "所以过去很少人会这么做的",
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      "start": 878.32,
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      "text": "可是现在有了AI",
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    {
      "start": 880.04,
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      "text": "整个投报率变得不一样了",
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      "start": 882.16,
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      "text": "第一大家不用再请律师",
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      "start": 883.98,
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      "text": "不用再花大钱了",
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      "start": 885.16,
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      "text": "光是AI就可以帮你完成一份",
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      "start": 887.48,
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      "text": "非常像样的诉状",
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      "start": 889.06,
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      "text": "你就可以拿去法院告你的老板",
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      "text": "那经济学院说",
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      "text": "这就是今天AI时代",
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      "start": 895.54,
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      "text": "所面临的一个新的问题",
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      "start": 897.3,
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      "text": "当你的员工可以快速的利用AI提起诉讼",
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      "start": 900.98,
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      "text": "可是呢",
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      "start": 902.22,
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      "text": "法官却没有办法用AI来做判决",
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      "start": 904.82,
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      "text": "因为每一个诉状都得自己来阅读",
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      "start": 907.2,
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      "text": "每一个案件都得靠法官自己花时间来审理",
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      "start": 911.28,
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      "text": "再加上现在很多法官发现",
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      "text": "这种用AI写出来的诉状",
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      "start": 915.72,
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      "text": "常常出现所谓的AI法律废文",
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      "start": 919.34,
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      "text": "要么就是瞎拍出来的案例跟法条",
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      "start": 922.3,
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      "text": "要么是引用完全无关的法案",
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      "text": "所以很多法官现在都很生气",
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    {
      "start": 927.58,
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      "text": "说你们这些律师",
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      "text": "你们这些当事人",
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      "start": 929.42,
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      "text": "有的AI真的是都在乱搞",
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    {
      "start": 931.38,
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      "text": "更严重的是",
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      "start": 933.08,
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      "text": "现在每一个法院",
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      "start": 934.86,
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      "text": "因为AI的出现都怎么样",
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      "text": "案件堆积如山",
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      "text": "有多麼嚴重？經濟學人說",
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      "text_original": "有多么严重的经济学人说",
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      "text": "那些最近",
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      "text": "如果你最近送案子",
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      "text": "他說可能要到2030年",
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      "text_original": "他说可能要到2030年",
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      "start": 947.72,
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      "text": "你才有機會开庭",
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      "text_original": "你才有机会开庭",
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      "start": 950.3,
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      "text": "也就是說",
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      "text_original": "也就是说",
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      "start": 951.64,
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      "text": "原本AI的誕生是一件好事",
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      "text_original": "原本AI的诞生是一件好事",
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      "start": 954.4,
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      "text": "它可以促進人民在法律上的平等",
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      "text_original": "它可以促进人民在法律上的平等",
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      "start": 957.7,
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      "text": "可以讓手無寸鐵的小員工",
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      "text_original": "可以让手无寸铁的小员工",
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      "start": 962.7,
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      "text": "可是今天濫用AI的結果",
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      "text_original": "可是今天滥用AI的结果",
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      "start": 966.26,
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      "text": "反而造成了正義",
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      "text_original": "反而造成了正义",
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      "start": 968.32,
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      "text": "造成了公益大賽車",
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      "text_original": "造成了公益大赛车",
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      "start": 970.18,
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      "text": "正義也許會有來到的一天",
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      "text_original": "正义也许会有来到了一天",
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      "text": "可是現在看起來要拖很多年",
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      "text_original": "可是现在看起来要拖很多年",
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    {
      "start": 975.88,
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      "text": "這就是今天英國遇到的問題之一",
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      "text_original": "这就是今天英国遇到的问题之一",
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      "start": 978.68,
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      "text": "當然也是全世界不是只有英國",
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      "text_original": "当然也是全世界不是只有英国",
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      "start": 980.62,
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      "text": "大家即將要面臨的一個麻煩",
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      "text_original": "大家即将要面临的一个麻烦",
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      "start": 983.94,
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      "text": "所以我的意思是說",
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      "text_original": "所以我的意思是说",
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      "start": 985.74,
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      "text": "今天AI所帶來的衝擊是普世性的",
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      "text_original": "今天AI所带来的冲击是普世性的",
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      "start": 988.44,
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      "text": "是全球性的",
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      "start": 989.68,
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      "text": "不是只有英國有",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "不是只有英国有",
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    {
      "start": 990.76,
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      "text": "美國也是一樣",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "美国也是一样",
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    {
      "start": 991.72,
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      "text": "像剛剛讲的",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "像刚刚讲的",
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    {
      "start": 993.18,
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      "text": "中國勞動市場面臨的問題",
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      "text_original": "中国劳动市场面临的问题",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    {
      "start": 994.74,
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      "text": "美國英國全世界都同樣要面對的",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "美国英国全世界都同样要面对的",
      "correction_applied": true,
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    },
    {
      "start": 998.18,
      "end": 999.64,
      "text": "倒是這個封面故事",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "倒是这个封面故事",
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    },
    {
      "start": 999.64,
      "end": 1001.12,
      "text": "提到幾個觀察點",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "提到几个观察点",
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    {
      "start": 1001.12,
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      "text": "我覺得也蠻值得提出來",
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      "text_original": "我觉得也蛮值得提出来",
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      "start": 1002.92,
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      "text": "給大家一起來參考跟思考的",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "给大家一起来参考跟思考的",
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    {
      "start": 1005.64,
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      "text": "首先第一經濟學人說",
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      "source": "whisper",
      "text_original": "首先第一经济权说",
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      "start": 1007.86,
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      "text": "中國現在正在全面的培養AI人才",
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      "text_original": "中国现在正在全面的培养AI人才",
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      "start": 1012.6,
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      "text": "現在從小學中學開始",
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      "text_original": "现在从小学中学开始",
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      "start": 1015.0,
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      "text": "中國的學校都增加了很多AI的課程",
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      "text_original": "中国的学校都增加了很多AI的课程",
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      "start": 1018.14,
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      "text": "我最近有個上海朋友就來跟我說",
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      "text_original": "我最近有个上海朋友就来跟我说",
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      "text": "他說他們大陸的小學",
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      "text_original": "他说他们大陆的小学",
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      "start": 1022.02,
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      "text": "已經取消英文課了",
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      "text_original": "已经取消英文课了",
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      "start": 1023.5,
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      "text": "已經取消英文課",
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      "text_original": "已经取消英文课",
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      "text": "我不知道真的假的",
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      "text": "但他說取消了",
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      "text_original": "但他说取消了",
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      "text": "但是他们认为",
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      "text": "未來的英文已經不再重要了",
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      "text_original": "未来的英文已经不再重要了",
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      "text": "因为有了AI",
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      "text": "所以在学校里头",
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      "start": 1032.88,
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      "text": "就把取消英文課後的課程時間",
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      "text_original": "就把取消英文之后的课程的时间",
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      "text": "用来教AI",
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      "text": "因为中国政府已经看到了",
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      "start": 1039.52,
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      "text": "未来要在所有企业导入AI流程",
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      "text": "就需要更多工程师才行",
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      "text": "而且话说回来",
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      "start": 1047.12,
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      "text": "现在很多缺工的工作",
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      "start": 1048.66,
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      "text": "老实说年轻人也没什么兴趣",
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    {
      "start": 1051.28,
      "end": 1053.0,
      "text": "像刚刚讲的货运司机",
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      "start": 1053.0,
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      "text": "公司常辛苦",
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      "text_original": "公司常有辛苦",
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      "text": "將來都會被AI",
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      "text_original": "将来都会被AI",
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      "text": "还有会用AI的人来取代",
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    {
      "start": 1060.16,
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      "text": "前两天才跟一个美国朋友在聊天",
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      "text": "美国现在很多公司也很头痛",
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      "text": "他们都知道AI的导入很关键",
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      "text": "很需要",
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      "start": 1067.84,
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      "text": "可是他们就是找不到",
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    {
      "start": 1069.72,
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      "text": "足够的合适的人才",
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      "start": 1071.82,
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      "text": "所以大家也都很认真的都在讨论",
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      "start": 1074.84,
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      "text": "未来我们的人才从哪里来",
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    {
      "start": 1078.28,
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      "text": "而讲到人才",
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      "start": 1080.18,
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      "text": "大家都要想办法投资",
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      "text": "那讲到投资AI",
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      "start": 1083.8,
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      "text": "这期还有一篇很有意思的文章",
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      "start": 1086.42,
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      "text": "我们之前不是一直在说",
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      "text": "中國的AI比美國便宜",
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      "text_original": "中国的AI比美国便宜",
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      "text": "中国的开发成本比美国低",
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      "text": "但是还是很好用吗",
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      "start": 1093.7,
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      "text": "那为什么中国的开发成本可以低呢",
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      "start": 1098.16,
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      "text": "那很多人就说",
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    {
      "start": 1099.7,
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      "text": "那是因为中国跑去偷偷蒸馏",
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      "text": "人家美国的模型",
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    {
      "start": 1103.72,
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      "text": "所以省了很多钱",
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      "text": "还有人说",
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      "text": "中国本来就什么都比较便宜",
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      "text": "电力成本也便宜",
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      "start": 1110.66,
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      "text": "晶片成本也便宜",
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      "text": "劳动成本也便宜",
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    {
      "start": 1112.62,
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      "text": "所以整个成本才会这么低",
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      "start": 1114.32,
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      "text": "尤其现在中国那么内卷",
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    {
      "start": 1116.5,
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      "text": "政府也不敢乱花钱",
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      "start": 1118.3,
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      "text": "所以大家都只能省吃俭用",
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    {
      "start": 1121.02,
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      "text": "不过经济学人这篇文章",
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      "start": 1124.22,
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      "text": "提供了一个不一样的解释",
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      "text": "他说中国的AI模型",
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      "start": 1129.96,
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      "text": "开发成本之所以低",
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      "text": "以上都可能是原因",
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      "start": 1134.12,
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      "text": "可是还不能完全解释这个现象",
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      "text": "因为呢",
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      "start": 1138.7,
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      "text": "你如果只是把中国AI烧钱烧的比较少",
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      "text": "就说是中国缺资金啦",
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    {
      "start": 1144.74,
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      "text": "遇到了什么问题",
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      "text": "其实太过简化了这个现象",
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      "text": "经济学人说",
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      "text": "实际上中国根本就不缺钱",
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      "start": 1151.96,
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      "text": "尤其我们知道",
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    {
      "start": 1152.78,
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      "text": "当中国共产党想要做什么的时候",
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      "text": "钱从来就不是问题",
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    {
      "start": 1157.18,
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      "text": "经济学人说",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1158.32,
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      "text": "真正卡住AI企业支出的",
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      "text": "其实是他们有钱",
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      "text": "也没地方花",
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      "start": 1165.26,
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      "text": "怎么说呢",
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      "text": "第一",
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    {
      "start": 1166.76,
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      "text": "因为美国的技术出口的管制",
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      "text_original": "因为美国的技术出口的贯制",
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      "text": "它让很多中国企业",
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      "start": 1171.48,
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      "text": "买不到最尖端",
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      "text": "最好也最昂贵的AI晶片",
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      "text": "它就以阿里巴巴做例子",
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      "text": "阿里巴巴去年就宣布",
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      "text": "它原本打算在2026年到2028年",
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    {
      "start": 1183.32,
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      "text": "投资530亿美金在AI上",
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      "text": "当然这笔钱跟Amazon",
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      "text": "跟Alphabet比起来",
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      "start": 1190.34,
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      "text": "还是小巫见大巫",
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      "text_original": "还是小无间大物",
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      "text": "可是即便是这样",
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      "text": "它还是可能花不出去",
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      "text": "因为原本阿里巴巴是跟台积电买晶片的",
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      "text": "可是美国一制裁",
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      "start": 1200.84,
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      "text": "它被迫只能回頭找華為",
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      "text_original": "它被迫只能回头找回自己的华为",
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      "text": "所以这是第一点",
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      "text": "它有钱也没地方花",
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      "text": "再来第二个是需求面",
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      "text": "经济学人说",
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      "start": 1211.16,
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      "text": "相较于美国公司",
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      "text": "中国的这些企业在导入IT",
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      "text": "導入AI的預算上",
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      "text_original": "导入AI的预算上",
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      "text": "向来是小气很多的",
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      "text": "中国的GDP大概是美国的三分之二",
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      "start": 1223.7,
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      "text": "可是中國企業花在這套軟體上的錢",
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      "text_original": "可是中国企业花在这些软体上的钱",
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      "text": "加起来往往不到美国企业的十分之一",
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      "text": "所以当需求面大家不想花大钱的时候",
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    {
      "start": 1234.36,
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      "text": "當然會影響最前端AI公司投資者的意願",
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      "text_original": "当然会影响最前端AI公司投资股东的意愿",
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      "text": "中国跟美国之间的战略方向完全不一样",
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      "text": "美国的AI公司现在的做法是一直砸钱",
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      "text": "去打造更聪明",
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      "text": "更强大的晶片",
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      "text": "然后去塞满更多的Data Center",
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      "text": "我们前面讲过",
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      "text": "在于把这个AI的技术",
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      "text": "扩散到更大的整个经济体",
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      "text": "所以經濟學人的意思是說",
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      "text_original": "所以经济旋律的意思是说",
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      "text": "太過量入為出",
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      "text_original": "太过量入",
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      "text": "那这固然听起来好像是美德",
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      "text": "不过在AI开发这件事情上",
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      "text": "成为中国自己的限制",
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      "text": "中国的data center",
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      "text": "其实已经出现了非常紧迫",
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      "text": "相对的来得保守",
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      "start": 1304.84,
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      "text": "当然接下来还要面对的是",
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      "text": "人才的问题",
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      "text": "经济学人这个礼拜也有一篇分析",
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      "text": "他倒过来提醒他的西方读者要注意",
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      "text": "中国人才正在归队",
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      "text": "首先根据经济学人的数字",
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      "text": "中国学生赴海外留学的热潮",
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      "text": "正在明显的降温",
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    {
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      "text": "2019年中国出国留学的人数",
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      "text": "高达70万人",
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      "text": "但是这个数字到了2025年",
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      "text": "只剩下了57万",
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    {
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      "text": "回到了相当于2016年左右的水准",
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      "text": "现在有越来越多的中国年轻人",
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      "text": "他过去会认为",
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    {
      "start": 1351.08,
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      "text": "美国欧洲的文凭",
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    {
      "start": 1353.28,
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      "text": "象征着前途跟地位",
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    {
      "start": 1355.48,
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      "text": "据说他们现在正在重新评估",
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      "text": "这些海外文凭的成本效益了",
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      "start": 1361.16,
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      "text": "首先在成本方面",
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      "text": "不用说了",
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      "text": "出国留学的成本是更高的",
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      "text": "难度也更大了",
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      "text": "美国政府现在已经很多签证",
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      "text": "而且你就算去的城",
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      "text": "你的平均花费",
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      "text": "经济学院这边的数字是说",
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      "text": "要60万人民币",
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      "text": "比2023年要增加了20%",
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      "text": "那成本高一就算了",
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      "text": "那報酬率呢",
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      "text_original": "预期的报酬率呢",
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      "text": "看起来也正在降低",
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      "text": "現在留在美國工作的機會少了很多",
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      "text_original": "现在留在美国工作的机会低很多了",
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      "text": "所以造成很多人的回流",
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      "text": "所谓海归的中国留学生人数",
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      "text": "高达53万",
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      "text": "相当于出国人数的94%",
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      "text": "也就是说",
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      "text": "而回來之後也在中國帶來了一個所謂海歸過剩的現象，也因此稀釋了這些海外學歷的稀有性。",
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      "text_original": "而回來之後也在中國帶來了一個所謂海龜攻擊過剩的現象,也因此稀釋了這些海外學歷的稀有性。",
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      "text": "据说这些海归派",
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      "text": "薪資已經差距不大了",
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      "text": "所以你花了这么多钱",
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      "text": "去好不容易留学一番",
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      "text": "结果回来",
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      "text": "我不如留在國內",
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      "text": "这两个学校现在已经是全球排名前15名的",
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      "text": "未来可能可以留在你国家",
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      "text": "美国的所谓民主阵营",
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      "text": "大家可以一个一个去点阅",
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