1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:29,640
突英是否打垮了美日聯盟呢?因為他們要拯救日園。現在看起來是這個任務完全失效了。為什麼呢?我們來看到一些細節。包括了現在日本現在面臨的各種問題。像是進口成本暴漲。日氣現在狂哀嚎。另外,東京的房地產淪為外資的獵場。高市掃描這個時候壓力也非常的大。要救民生,這個物資一直上漲。說要降食物稅,看起來也沒效。支持率創新低,跌至53%。

2
00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,720
好 今天我们会有深度的剖析

3
00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:33,940
先来看这一场日元保卫战

4
00:00:33,940 --> 00:00:36,220
大家认为是不是踢到铁板了

5
00:00:36,220 --> 00:00:38,160
如果您认为是留言写一

6
00:00:38,160 --> 00:00:40,300
如果您认为还不会留言写二

7
00:00:40,300 --> 00:00:41,960
我们来一起做互动

8
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,400
回顾一下今年7月

9
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,480
日币是一度扁到

10
00:00:45,480 --> 00:00:48,900
接近是164比上一美元

11
00:00:48,900 --> 00:00:51,180
结果我们先前不是做了报道吗

12
00:00:51,180 --> 00:00:53,580
每日联手就是要开始来拯救日币

13
00:00:53,580 --> 00:00:55,580
确实当时看到日币一度有反弹

14
00:00:55,580 --> 00:00:57,140
大约幅度达到5%

15
00:00:57,140 --> 00:00:58,920
结果呢 为什么啊

16
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,380
到8月10号这一天又贬回去了

17
00:01:01,380 --> 00:01:03,440
达到了159.29

18
00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,080
重新吐回当时美日联手要去救日元

19
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:08,700
大约是一半的涨幅

20
00:01:08,700 --> 00:01:11,000
现在企业真的就是很担心

21
00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,680
会不会日币继续继续的贬值呢

22
00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,760
而日本企业内部其实做了一个调查

23
00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:17,980
他们认为两成的企业说

24
00:01:17,980 --> 00:01:22,380
最好的价位就是大约是落在120到124日元

25
00:01:22,380 --> 00:01:23,300
对上1美元

26
00:01:23,300 --> 00:01:26,220
跟现在我们来看到这个数字159

27
00:01:26,220 --> 00:01:28,380
真的是差得非常多

28
00:01:28,380 --> 00:01:30,820
他们认为说这样子企业跟民众

29
00:01:30,820 --> 00:01:32,240
可以说是苦哈哈

30
00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,960
确实我们看到立刻对于产业界

31
00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:37,340
还有对于民生的冲击

32
00:01:37,340 --> 00:01:40,300
在日本内部已经开始一系列爆发

33
00:01:40,300 --> 00:01:42,040
首先看到优衣库的母公司

34
00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,360
已经宣布了受到日元走扁的影响

35
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,060
成本大受影响

36
00:01:46,060 --> 00:01:48,840
所以预计即将到来的秋冬商品

37
00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,880
就会开始做价格上面的调涨

38
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,060
涨幅大约是落在4%

39
00:01:53,060 --> 00:01:54,720
三菱电机同样也是日本

40
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:56,300
一个非常重要的企业

41
00:01:56,300 --> 00:01:58,620
过去他们靠着出口赚了宝宝

42
00:01:58,620 --> 00:02:00,920
但是他们现在不这么认为了

43
00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:02,880
他们的财务长是这样说的

44
00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:04,840
落日元不代表日本的经济

45
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:06,180
就可以一切的顺遂

46
00:02:06,180 --> 00:02:07,020
为什么呢

47
00:02:07,020 --> 00:02:08,860
因为日本还是长期靠着

48
00:02:08,860 --> 00:02:12,500
能源跟原物料食品来进口的

49
00:02:12,500 --> 00:02:15,020
所以你现在这些进口的成本

50
00:02:15,020 --> 00:02:15,760
大增的话

51
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,700
是压缩日本人的内需

52
00:02:17,700 --> 00:02:19,920
那内需不就变落了吗

53
00:02:19,920 --> 00:02:22,240
再来看到是三井物产

54
00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,180
还有三菱商市

55
00:02:24,180 --> 00:02:25,140
他们也这样说

56
00:02:25,140 --> 00:02:28,080
他们认为剧烈的汇率的波动

57
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,220
影响了企业对于未来获利的预测

58
00:02:31,220 --> 00:02:32,700
跟他们投资的决策

59
00:02:32,700 --> 00:02:35,140
对于企业来说是非常不利的

60
00:02:35,140 --> 00:02:36,680
再来看到日本的贸易了

61
00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,160
虽然我们看到进出口都有增幅

62
00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:43,160
都有一个大约落在20%左右的一个增幅

63
00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,040
但是最后来算起来

64
00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,680
日本的贸易仍然是呈现严重逆差的

65
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,580
达到了4000亿日元左右的一个金额

66
00:02:51,580 --> 00:02:52,520
那么我们也来看到

67
00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,980
尤其小老百姓现在也非常的压力很大

68
00:02:54,980 --> 00:02:58,060
吃的用的穿的全部都开始涨价

69
00:02:58,060 --> 00:03:00,240
那压力现在也就压到了

70
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,440
日本首相高士早苗的身上了

71
00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:03,760
他说好啦那赶快

72
00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,500
我们马上要来降食品的消费税

73
00:03:06,500 --> 00:03:09,040
从8%一口气降到1%

74
00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,340
而且最快2027年就可以上路了

75
00:03:12,340 --> 00:03:14,020
这样子也可以救回他

76
00:03:14,020 --> 00:03:16,700
现在低到不行创始上

77
00:03:16,700 --> 00:03:19,940
最低只有53%的一个民调吗

78
00:03:19,940 --> 00:03:21,680
这个要持续的做观察

79
00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:22,960
所以今天节目一开始

80
00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:24,360
先请教介大使怎么看

81
00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,120
首先是为什么日元干预了

82
00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:28,160
日美都干预了

83
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:29,060
还是守不住

84
00:03:29,060 --> 00:03:30,520
接下来对于日本

85
00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,120
这个日币不断的贬值

86
00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:33,460
对于民生的压力

87
00:03:33,460 --> 00:03:34,500
包括我们刚刚看到

88
00:03:34,500 --> 00:03:35,480
这个优衣库

89
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:36,800
日本家庭的薪水

90
00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:38,840
还有很多企业都开始抱怨

91
00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:40,760
这个对他们的重击有多大呢

92
00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:41,520
介大师怎么看

93
00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,320
对 其实日本这个

94
00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,680
日元不断贬值的问题

95
00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:47,340
有两个根本因素

96
00:03:47,340 --> 00:03:50,440
这个现在日本都没有办法解决

97
00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,000
这两个根本因素都是怎么样

98
00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:54,440
就是beyond control

99
00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:55,960
就是控制不住的

100
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:57,020
日本控制不住的

101
00:03:57,020 --> 00:03:57,760
第一个

102
00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,960
它跟美元的利差太大了

103
00:03:59,960 --> 00:04:00,120
对

104
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:01,160
所以这个套汇的话

105
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,340
让日元承受很大的压力

106
00:04:03,340 --> 00:04:04,700
大家就是说

107
00:04:04,700 --> 00:04:05,700
等于说

108
00:04:05,700 --> 00:04:07,200
等于说

109
00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:07,520
这个

110
00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,800
卖日元买美元

111
00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:10,340
对

112
00:04:10,340 --> 00:04:11,780
去套那个利差

113
00:04:11,780 --> 00:04:13,780
美元大概现在可以拿到

114
00:04:13,780 --> 00:04:15,120
将近4%吧

115
00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,000
日元的汇率大概只有

116
00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:18,300
它的这个利息

117
00:04:18,300 --> 00:04:20,260
只有这个1%

118
00:04:20,260 --> 00:04:21,020
所以差3

119
00:04:21,020 --> 00:04:22,480
利差差3%

120
00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:26,660
这个对日人是承受压力

121
00:04:26,660 --> 00:04:29,080
所以这个问题不解决的话

122
00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,560
那这个问题的关键问题就没有抓到

123
00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,660
解决这个问题的关键没抓到

124
00:04:34,660 --> 00:04:36,060
可是日本政府已经

125
00:04:36,060 --> 00:04:40,340
它的国债已经是它的GDP的2.6倍

126
00:04:40,340 --> 00:04:43,140
所以这是无法解决的

127
00:04:43,140 --> 00:04:44,900
因为日本现在政府

128
00:04:44,900 --> 00:04:48,240
这个欠债这么多的情况之下

129
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,300
你要增加利息的话

130
00:04:50,300 --> 00:04:52,800
那日本政府的财政会垮掉

131
00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:54,320
而且日本还有一个

132
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:55,340
大家还不太

133
00:04:55,340 --> 00:04:57,100
他们最近不太提的

134
00:04:57,100 --> 00:04:58,900
最近几年不提的

135
00:04:58,900 --> 00:05:02,460
日本有25家叫僵尸企业

136
00:05:02,460 --> 00:05:05,040
僵尸企业就是你这个产观学

137
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:06,300
一体搞出来的

138
00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:08,800
它都依赖什么政府的政策

139
00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,300
甚至这种低利率

140
00:05:10,300 --> 00:05:11,880
那么它能够存活

141
00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:13,320
现在是1%的利率

142
00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:14,200
它还债的时候

143
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:15,060
它还不会吃力

144
00:05:15,060 --> 00:05:20,100
你如果说你要提升你的利率的话

145
00:05:20,100 --> 00:05:22,120
那一大堆日本的僵尸器

146
00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,060
25万家倒一半的话

147
00:05:24,060 --> 00:05:26,960
那就是连锁效应对日本的经济

148
00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,180
可以说是几乎致命的打击

149
00:05:29,180 --> 00:05:31,460
所以这个问题不解决的话

150
00:05:31,460 --> 00:05:32,380
没办法解决

151
00:05:32,380 --> 00:05:33,200
第二个

152
00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,360
这种所谓的汇率是反映

153
00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:37,860
它的经济的基本面

154
00:05:37,860 --> 00:05:40,080
日本的经济基本面很差

155
00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:41,980
没有竞争力

156
00:05:41,980 --> 00:05:45,260
新的产业几乎全部空白

157
00:05:45,260 --> 00:05:46,900
日本人睡觉睡了

158
00:05:46,900 --> 00:05:49,480
实际上它不是失落了20年

159
00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,240
日本是睡觉二三十年

160
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,980
被美国人欺负的时候又不敢还手

161
00:05:54,980 --> 00:05:56,420
美国把他的这个

162
00:05:56,420 --> 00:05:59,260
所谓的芯片产业打光

163
00:05:59,260 --> 00:06:00,520
对 交给了

164
00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,660
可以说在这个过程中

165
00:06:02,660 --> 00:06:04,400
韩国跟台湾的兴起

166
00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:05,520
让日本在这个方面

167
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,900
扮演极不重要的角色

168
00:06:07,900 --> 00:06:10,500
那你说这些芯片制造

169
00:06:10,500 --> 00:06:11,500
有日本的吗

170
00:06:11,500 --> 00:06:13,540
日本还靠我们台积电

171
00:06:13,540 --> 00:06:14,500
没有台积电

172
00:06:14,500 --> 00:06:16,400
它现在还没一席之地了

173
00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:18,640
靠最后只有什么光刻教

174
00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:20,480
那你有HBM吗

175
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:21,880
HBM都是韩国的

176
00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:22,680
对不对

177
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:23,960
所以那罗基晶片

178
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,200
罗基晶片对不大部分是我们台积电

179
00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:27,760
日本有厂吗

180
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:28,400
日本没有

181
00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:29,720
那另外一方面

182
00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:30,940
新能源方面

183
00:06:30,940 --> 00:06:31,980
应用方面

184
00:06:31,980 --> 00:06:33,020
没有啊

185
00:06:33,020 --> 00:06:34,220
新能源汽车的话

186
00:06:34,220 --> 00:06:35,580
你有吗

187
00:06:35,580 --> 00:06:37,060
而日本今年上半年

188
00:06:37,060 --> 00:06:39,160
去年一年才卖了400万辆车

189
00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,980
今年中国大陆上半年就已经超过700万辆

190
00:06:41,980 --> 00:06:43,280
就外销

191
00:06:43,280 --> 00:06:46,620
所以它的这个市场都不断的萎缩

192
00:06:46,620 --> 00:06:48,040
也没有新的产业

193
00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,400
那AI你有听过日本吗

194
00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:51,640
日本有什么大模型

195
00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:52,840
没有吧

196
00:06:52,840 --> 00:06:53,940
没听说过

197
00:06:53,940 --> 00:06:56,620
所以日本经济是一片问题

198
00:06:56,620 --> 00:06:57,960
再加上人口老化

199
00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:01,060
它的整个的产业预阵乏力

200
00:07:01,060 --> 00:07:03,280
日本经过失落30年的时候

201
00:07:03,280 --> 00:07:05,980
它的产业非常不敢投资新的

202
00:07:05,980 --> 00:07:08,580
它基本上它是希望怎么讲

203
00:07:08,580 --> 00:07:10,100
它赚钱要干嘛

204
00:07:10,100 --> 00:07:11,500
不是扩展新的

205
00:07:11,500 --> 00:07:12,960
是赶快去还债

206
00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,880
所以他们在乎是利率

207
00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:17,980
所以日本经济这个结构性问题

208
00:07:17,980 --> 00:07:19,220
是一点办法都没有

209
00:07:19,220 --> 00:07:21,840
所以那变成就是说

210
00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:23,380
美国出手救一下

211
00:07:23,380 --> 00:07:25,060
你能持习救吗

212
00:07:25,060 --> 00:07:26,660
只能救急不能救穷

213
00:07:26,660 --> 00:07:27,820
日本是穷

214
00:07:27,820 --> 00:07:29,040
日本不是急

215
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,160
所以穷的问题还真的没办法

216
00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,600
所以现在回到快160了

217
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,620
有很多人就看到大概170

218
00:07:38,620 --> 00:07:41,680
也为时不远

219
00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:45,620
好 现在也包括内需不足

220
00:07:45,620 --> 00:07:48,020
还有这个债务的问题越来越高

221
00:07:48,020 --> 00:07:48,400
所以呢

222
00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:49,720
现在看起来是不是

223
00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:50,940
现在外资

224
00:07:50,940 --> 00:07:53,980
现在包括了日本媒体都很担心说

225
00:07:53,980 --> 00:07:56,040
反而是都是外资在买

226
00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,240
日本他的一些建物

227
00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:59,800
包括了来看到的是

228
00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,380
比前一年还要多出了八成

229
00:08:14,380 --> 00:08:15,200
这个资金

230
00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,260
很多都是来自于海外的

231
00:08:17,260 --> 00:08:19,500
不断的去买东京的房市

232
00:08:19,500 --> 00:08:20,800
数字创下新高

233
00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:21,640
日本媒体说

234
00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,820
东京可能已经变成全球资本眼中的一个重要列场

235
00:08:25,820 --> 00:08:28,260
现在是外资在这边大减便宜吗

236
00:08:28,260 --> 00:08:29,220
上次哥怎么看

237
00:08:29,220 --> 00:08:30,880
对于日本的影响

238
00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,540
好 今天主要就是日本贬值

239
00:08:33,540 --> 00:08:34,980
这个状况来讲

240
00:08:34,980 --> 00:08:36,760
并没有真的结构性的改变

241
00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,080
所以日本的里面的东西

242
00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:40,160
如果就外币

243
00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:41,020
你拿美金

244
00:08:41,020 --> 00:08:41,760
你拿台币

245
00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:42,380
你拿韩元

246
00:08:42,380 --> 00:08:43,760
你拿人民币去买

247
00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:44,780
就是便宜嘛

248
00:08:44,780 --> 00:08:46,400
它就是真的真的很便宜

249
00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,100
那先前其实有包括统计房子

250
00:08:49,100 --> 00:08:51,940
就是大概跟去年初的时候相比

251
00:08:51,940 --> 00:08:53,100
大概就少了

252
00:08:53,100 --> 00:08:54,900
最高可以少三分之一

253
00:08:54,900 --> 00:08:56,140
那日本的房子

254
00:08:56,140 --> 00:08:57,160
你说也是几千万

255
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,140
当然少三分之一

256
00:08:58,140 --> 00:09:00,820
你可能就已经省了上千万

257
00:09:00,820 --> 00:09:02,640
所以其实就这么简单的概念

258
00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:03,840
也因此现在我们都知道

259
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,520
接下来可能9月10月的时候

260
00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,780
日本的包括观光客到那个地方

261
00:09:07,780 --> 00:09:08,800
会有出境税

262
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,020
然后你那个duty free的部分

263
00:09:11,020 --> 00:09:12,240
以前你在美妆店里头

264
00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:13,140
他就把你扣掉了

265
00:09:13,140 --> 00:09:15,380
未来你要辛辛苦苦到机场去退

266
00:09:15,380 --> 00:09:16,560
有很多的麻烦

267
00:09:16,560 --> 00:09:19,280
那基本上他就让你这个外国人来

268
00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:20,420
觉得日元很便宜

269
00:09:20,420 --> 00:09:21,800
乱消费这件事情

270
00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:23,040
他还是帮你设一些门槛

271
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:24,560
然后抬高了很多的

272
00:09:24,560 --> 00:09:26,040
要缴日本的这些规费

273
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:27,380
但会影响到

274
00:09:27,380 --> 00:09:28,820
大家去日本买便宜货吗

275
00:09:28,820 --> 00:09:29,760
我相信不会的

276
00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:30,780
不过我觉得我回头过来

277
00:09:30,780 --> 00:09:31,600
还是要看一下日元

278
00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:33,440
我想日元现在是这样的状况

279
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,000
在7月30 31号

280
00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:36,160
美日联合干预

281
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:37,840
这个还是一个很重要的一天

282
00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:39,440
当天美国出了100亿

283
00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:40,760
每日本出了700

284
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:42,820
大概770亿左右

285
00:09:42,820 --> 00:09:44,040
大家联手干预

286
00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,920
当时其实是从原来我们知道

287
00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,100
163扁扁扁

288
00:09:49,100 --> 00:09:50,880
扁的163.8

289
00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:51,640
这估

290
00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,020
一下子就是升值了

291
00:09:54,020 --> 00:09:55,320
大概8.6元

292
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,000
历经10天

293
00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:58,540
现在又回去

294
00:09:58,540 --> 00:10:00,900
又回扁了4.1元

295
00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:02,220
一半就没了

296
00:10:02,220 --> 00:10:03,180
就是这些先年的钱

297
00:10:03,180 --> 00:10:04,380
就一半又没了

298
00:10:04,380 --> 00:10:05,720
但是我们现在在关心

299
00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,760
这个部分是慢慢的又扁回来

300
00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,720
但是其实美国不是出重手吗

301
00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:11,720
到底怎么回事

302
00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,580
我觉得现在其实大家在观察

303
00:10:13,580 --> 00:10:15,800
是不是这些所谓的国际秃因

304
00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:17,520
还是这种投机的钱

305
00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,000
还是不相信

306
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:20,720
这些美日干预的效果

307
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,100
要知道比如说干预的时候

308
00:10:22,100 --> 00:10:22,940
日本就扁了

309
00:10:22,940 --> 00:10:24,660
它干预是一个介入

310
00:10:24,660 --> 00:10:26,980
可是日本央行还没有升息

311
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:28,820
所以真正的要稳定

312
00:10:28,820 --> 00:10:29,700
还是要得到升息

313
00:10:29,700 --> 00:10:30,760
不过我觉得大家注意

314
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:32,080
日本到现在的状况

315
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,240
因为作为日元便宜

316
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:34,180
套息交易

317
00:10:34,180 --> 00:10:35,600
你钱挪去存美元

318
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,280
你就可以赚三年多%

319
00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,120
甚至最多到4.几%

320
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,100
而且银行

321
00:10:41,100 --> 00:10:41,820
日本的银行

322
00:10:41,820 --> 00:10:42,820
国际银行都在做

323
00:10:42,820 --> 00:10:44,300
也不是只有投资的

324
00:10:44,300 --> 00:10:45,000
这一枚图荫

325
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:46,560
大家现在关注的是

326
00:10:46,560 --> 00:10:47,560
这种空单

327
00:10:47,560 --> 00:10:49,400
要知道在国际期会当中

328
00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:50,500
美国这个期会交易委员

329
00:10:50,500 --> 00:10:52,440
CFTC就其实在紧盯

330
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,140
因为为什么日本会贬

331
00:10:54,140 --> 00:10:55,680
就是因为人家买

332
00:10:55,680 --> 00:10:58,340
外汇的日元期货看空

333
00:10:58,340 --> 00:11:00,180
在美国还没出手之间

334
00:11:00,180 --> 00:11:00,620
很恐怖

335
00:11:00,620 --> 00:11:03,240
空单是13.8万张

336
00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,480
7月31号那天出手之后

337
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:06,740
瞬间少了一半

338
00:11:06,740 --> 00:11:07,780
6.8万张

339
00:11:07,780 --> 00:11:08,860
那现在呢

340
00:11:08,860 --> 00:11:10,560
可是因为8月4号之后

341
00:11:10,560 --> 00:11:12,840
这个美国这个CFTC没公布

342
00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:13,980
所以我觉得有可能

343
00:11:13,980 --> 00:11:15,200
这个空单又回来

344
00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:16,600
但是外界就没有资料

345
00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:16,960
我不知道

346
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,300
所以这个影响性

347
00:11:18,300 --> 00:11:19,120
我认为是现在

348
00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:20,120
至少就这样子

349
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:21,120
毁扁的状况

350
00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,620
我认为投机性还在

351
00:11:23,620 --> 00:11:24,780
那这个概念

352
00:11:24,780 --> 00:11:26,240
最后怎么来看待这一波

353
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:27,060
到底怎么回事

354
00:11:27,060 --> 00:11:28,460
我认为很简单

355
00:11:28,460 --> 00:11:29,240
就两个

356
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:30,040
第一点

357
00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,100
就是说现在在投机的

358
00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:33,700
或正规的日本银行

359
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:35,100
正规的投资的

360
00:11:35,100 --> 00:11:37,360
都在测试日本

361
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,000
或包括美国的官方底线

362
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:41,500
好 你现在出手

363
00:11:41,500 --> 00:11:42,480
你是底线吗

364
00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,020
你只是威吓一下市场

365
00:11:44,020 --> 00:11:45,300
但这个底线在哪里

366
00:11:45,300 --> 00:11:46,120
大家还在测

367
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:47,480
第二个我认为就刚刚讲

368
00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:48,820
釜底冲新没有别的啦

369
00:11:48,820 --> 00:11:50,960
就是央行宣布升息

370
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:52,780
日本所有日元

371
00:11:52,780 --> 00:11:54,920
永远的这个利息涨

372
00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:56,580
然后全世界在外面的

373
00:11:56,580 --> 00:11:58,280
这些流动在赚差价的日元

374
00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:59,900
被迫要全部回到日本

375
00:11:59,900 --> 00:12:01,420
你才有可能日本

376
00:12:01,420 --> 00:12:03,580
真正的恢复生存之后的稳定

377
00:12:03,580 --> 00:12:05,240
那当然过去认为是10月

378
00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,440
但现在都认为应该9月

379
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,460
所以如果9月日元的升值

380
00:12:10,460 --> 00:12:12,420
就包括它的升息之后

381
00:12:12,420 --> 00:12:14,080
我认为在全世界包括美元

382
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:15,360
包括各式各样的货币

383
00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:16,060
包括台币

384
00:12:16,060 --> 00:12:17,760
包括去观光的这个钱

385
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:18,760
9月之后

386
00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:20,240
10月如果去日本玩

387
00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:21,560
可能成本就要高一点了

388
00:12:21,560 --> 00:12:23,320
好 那如果真的

389
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:24,580
9月份的时候

390
00:12:24,580 --> 00:12:25,740
日本升息的话

391
00:12:25,740 --> 00:12:27,260
日本接得住吗

392
00:12:27,260 --> 00:12:29,360
因为他们现在债务非常的高

393
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,140
占GDP的250%到260%左右

394
00:12:33,140 --> 00:12:34,880
接下来可能会发生什么事情

395
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:36,540
那日本首上还有

396
00:12:36,540 --> 00:12:39,100
日本政府首上还有什么的招呢

397
00:12:39,100 --> 00:12:40,060
黄建长怎么看

398
00:12:40,060 --> 00:12:42,040
其实他不是说他有什么招

399
00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:43,300
而是这个金融的问题

400
00:12:43,300 --> 00:12:44,460
太复杂了

401
00:12:44,460 --> 00:12:46,520
而且有很多的因素在影响他

402
00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:47,700
而且这些因素里面

403
00:12:47,700 --> 00:12:49,180
通常是你拉这个

404
00:12:49,180 --> 00:12:50,080
这个下来

405
00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:50,760
你拉那个

406
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:51,600
那个下来

407
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:52,280
他没有

408
00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:54,360
他很难取得一个适当的平衡点

409
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,020
那一个国家到底有哪一些机构

410
00:12:58,020 --> 00:13:00,420
或什么能够影响这个国家财政呢

411
00:13:00,420 --> 00:13:02,080
第一个当然最主要是央行

412
00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,760
央行他可以管这个货币流通

413
00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:06,140
他可以限定每一个银行

414
00:13:06,140 --> 00:13:07,780
你的存款多少人带出去

415
00:13:07,780 --> 00:13:09,300
他可以决定升息

416
00:13:09,300 --> 00:13:11,740
这个是不受政府控制的

417
00:13:11,740 --> 00:13:14,280
像川普不是说升息降息

418
00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,060
那个FET的总裁

419
00:13:16,060 --> 00:13:16,720
根本不听他的

420
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:17,860
这是一个人知道

421
00:13:17,860 --> 00:13:19,420
政府归政府

422
00:13:19,420 --> 00:13:20,660
央行归央行

423
00:13:20,660 --> 00:13:22,740
央行管的是金融这个次序

424
00:13:22,740 --> 00:13:23,980
那政府管什么呢

425
00:13:23,980 --> 00:13:25,580
政府是一个行政单位

426
00:13:25,580 --> 00:13:27,620
他在管的是收跟资

427
00:13:27,620 --> 00:13:28,760
花钱

428
00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,320
如果我现在的财政状况不好

429
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:32,860
基本上我就是开源截流

430
00:13:32,860 --> 00:13:34,540
怎么样去能够增加一点

431
00:13:34,540 --> 00:13:36,420
收入减少一点支出

432
00:13:36,420 --> 00:13:37,440
这是政府在做

433
00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,940
这两个单位通常不一样

434
00:13:39,940 --> 00:13:41,500
我举个简单的例子

435
00:13:41,500 --> 00:13:42,780
好比说现在央行说

436
00:13:42,780 --> 00:13:45,720
我们日元这个实在是太弱了

437
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:46,900
那我升息

438
00:13:46,900 --> 00:13:51,760
我增加日元的市场的持有力

439
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:53,320
然后很多人来买日元

440
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:53,980
我升息了

441
00:13:53,980 --> 00:13:55,080
这时候会怎么样

442
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:56,440
消费会下降

443
00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:57,960
因为有钱了

444
00:13:57,960 --> 00:13:59,400
我存进去就好

445
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:00,300
那我不要去花钱

446
00:14:00,300 --> 00:14:01,440
好 消费会下降

447
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:02,600
反过来讲

448
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:04,700
那政府他关心的是民生

449
00:14:04,700 --> 00:14:06,960
好比说政府觉得像高市觉得

450
00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,180
现在日本的人民在生活非常不好

451
00:14:09,180 --> 00:14:09,800
那我怎么办

452
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:11,480
我就可能减税

453
00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,420
加些补给

454
00:14:13,420 --> 00:14:15,400
那我就希望大家能够消费

455
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,180
这个消费就增加

456
00:14:17,180 --> 00:14:19,240
你会发觉刚刚央行的政策

457
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:20,860
跟政府政策是违背的

458
00:14:20,860 --> 00:14:23,000
它其实最困难的地方就在这里

459
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:24,280
它不是一致的

460
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,660
就是央行跟政府有时候还在唱反调

461
00:14:26,660 --> 00:14:28,620
如何取得平衡比较困难

462
00:14:28,620 --> 00:14:30,240
好 谢谢县长

463
00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:31,560
那我们休息一下

464
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:32,440
马上回来

465
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:33,500
觀眾朋友們

466
00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:35,740
我們要開會員頻道啦

467
00:14:35,740 --> 00:14:39,280
因應美中中東還有印太的亂局

468
00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:40,440
你看到的是新聞

469
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:41,780
我們看到的是背後

470
00:14:41,780 --> 00:14:43,780
誰在操控這個世界

471
00:14:43,780 --> 00:14:45,080
加入會員可以取得

472
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:46,580
獨家視角的通行證

473
00:14:46,580 --> 00:14:49,100
你將優先取得更深的觀點叛讀

474
00:14:49,100 --> 00:14:50,660
包括了核心真相分析

475
00:14:50,660 --> 00:14:52,100
歷史脈絡拆解

476
00:14:52,100 --> 00:14:54,000
局勢推演邏輯

477
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:55,700
同時解鎖會員勳章

478
00:14:55,700 --> 00:14:56,800
優先互動權

479
00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,800
問題解析幕後花絮

480
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:00,800
支持我們製作高品質的影片

481
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,200
點擊下方的加入鍵

482
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:03,700
一起成為戰友吧

483
00:15:03,700 --> 00:15:04,900
我們會員頻道見