{ "text": "After the US and Japan joined forces, it was effective for a time, but the yen is now weak\nagain, returning to above 157.\nNaturally, everyone is asking why the US would step in to save the yen.\nIt turns out that if the yen falls any further, the government would have to sell off a massive\namount of US treasuries to buy yen.\nThey are essentially trying to take advantage of the situation.\nWell, there is analysis from others that if the yen raises interest rates, it will lose\nits status as a carry trade tool, and subsequently become a vassal of the United States.\nMaster, what is your take on this?\nRight, the main reason the US intervened in the yen was to successfully and indirectly\nprevent Japan from selling US treasuries to save the yen.\nRight.\nBecause during the last wave when the yen broke past 160, the Japanese government spent 74 billion US dollars.\nRight.\nAnd that 74 billion came from selling US treasuries.\nUm hum.\nSo, what the US fears most right now is people selling US treasuries, because the US government itself has issues with its own debt.\nAnd what happens if they sell US treasuries?\nUS bond yields go up.\nOnce these yields rise, it will also create a massive strain on the finances of the US government, which is already 40 trillion dollars in debt.\nSo they want to prevent Japan from selling US treasuries, and the way they are saving the yen\nthis time is by having Japan use its US treasuries as collateral for the US government to lend them\nmoney with a very short repayment period. It's just a temporary fix.\nThis process is essentially meant to warn currency speculators who might try to target\nthe yen that the situation isn't that simple since the US has stepped in.\nSo if you short the yen, you might end up losing everything.\nUsing this method did briefly pull the yen up, back from 163 or 164 to 157 or 155.\nBut it's back to 157 now.\nYes.\nSo it will be effective for a short time.\nNext time, the US might step in again, and it might be pulled back up.\nIt will be pulled back, because, their agreement with Japan is simply,\ndon't sell dollars, and,\ndon't sell US treasuries.\nDon't sell US treasuries.\nThen Japan says, what should we do?\nAnd the US says, I'll lend you money.\nUse them as collateral, and I'll lend you the money.\nQuote.\nSo this model might be used once or twice.\nHowever, it can only be used once or twice.\nAfter that, it won't be effective.\nIt's ineffective now, because what is the core problem?\nIf the Bank of Japan doesn't raise interest rates, the interest rate spread remains the\nbiggest issue for the yen.\nThe spread between it and the US dollar is around 3%.\nMany Japanese people are basically selling yen to buy dollars, right?\nIn Japan, I borrow money at only a 1% interest rate, and I take it to the US to earn 4% interest.\nI'm just doing arbitrage.\nArbitrage, even if the amount isn't small.\nIf I use a large amount of money for arbitrage, that's a very substantial income,\nso if this interest rate gap isn't resolved, the yen won't be saved.\nOn the other hand, there's Japan's economic fundamentals,\nbecause a currency's foundation is the country's economy.\nThe Japanese economy hasn't shown any signs of improvement.\nNo improvement at all, and all of Japan's strengths are gone.\nNow, if you want to buy electrical appliances, you buy either Korean or Chinese ones.\nDo you still have Japanese appliances?\nRight?\nNot many, maybe only in Taiwan.\nElsewhere, not much.\nYou don't really see them anymore.\nWhen we were kids, refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, they were all Japanese goods.\nYeah.\nRight?\nAll Japanese.\nEven all those trendy electronic products were Japanese.\nAnd Japanese cars, what can you say?\nChina's car exports in the first half of this year have already exceeded 7 million vehicles.\nJapan only exported 4 million cars all of last year, so the auto market is gone too.\nAnd you say new industries like AI, do they have them? No. Then chips, do they have them? No,\nonly lithography equipment, right? They still need our TSMC to help support them in chips.\nAnd other new energy sources, do they have those? No, this country, Japan, doesn't.\nIts industrial competitiveness is already gone.\nThen there's the aging population and labor shortages.\nAnd there's another major factor. They act arrogant toward mainland China,\nand China cuts off their essential raw materials for industrial production.\nOnce cut off, Japan can't make many of its industrial products now,\nincluding the auto industry facing a crisis, so Japan's economic fundamentals don't look promising.\nYou can use temporary means and tools to stop the yen from falling.\nRight.\nBut in the long term, many say by the end of the year, they might not even be able to\nhold the 170 line.\nIt could even be lower. As for Kushida, his only ways to save it are, first, beg the US for help.\nI'd say asking the US for help might have short-term effects, but not in the long run.\nSecond, he says, I'll just cancel the consumption tax.\nAnd many Japanese people are saying that, honestly, the government is already in financial trouble.\nRight? And you still want to take an important tax source and do what with it?\nOnce you abolish it, where will the Japanese public's pensions,\nretirement funds, medical subsidies, and social education funding come from?\nThey'll just keep getting cut, so what is the public supposed to say?\nPeople's lives are getting harder and harder.\nSo, Japan's economic situation is, how should I put it, it's already caught between a rock\nand a hard place, and on top of that, Kushida can't come up with any solutions, hum.\nThen rely on the US but to be honest, is the US reliable?\nYeah, so the outlook for Japan is very bleak.\nRight, although the US doesn't want Japan to sell off US treasuries, the fact is that\nChina has been steadily reducing its holdings, having already sold off 657 billion US dollars\nin treasuries and pivoted to buying over 300 billion US dollars in gold.\nRight, why is it like this?\nThe People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 21 consecutive months,\nand the scale is expanding month by month.\nThere are three reasons.\ngeopolitical risks, the rising risk of US treasuries themselves, and the unique nature\nof gold. Of course, the World Gold Council also predicts that global official gold reserves will\ncontinue to increase in the future. Including the second quarter of 2024, global central banks and\nother official institutions purchased 289 tons of gold. Let's ask the ambassador for his take.\nYes, China's previous peak in US treasury holdings was over a trillion dollars,\nbut over the past two years, they have been constantly reducing them, constantly reducing\nthem. From 800 billion to 700 billion, it has now dropped below 700 billion. I think they will\ncontinue to reduce them, because in fact, China is also pushing for, well, local currency trading.\nSo, as the number one trading nation, they may no longer need such a large amount of US dollars on\nhand, even though the dollar remains a primary tool for international trade.\nSo for China, they must still hold some, but during the Trump era, some hawks in the US,\nthose anti-China hawks, actually made some comments.\nThey said that since China trades with us unfairly and causes such a huge trade deficit,\nwe have a way to punish China, which is to confiscate all of China's US treasuries.\nWithhold them.\nI mean, it's like saying.\nI owe you a trillion, right?\nIf you bought my bond and kept it with me, and I decided our trade was unfair,\nI could just confiscate that bond and claim it as my own, treating it as reparations.\nIf you threaten people like that, who would still dare to keep their money in your bank?\nYeah, right? You're just supposed to be looking after my money, aren't you?\nOn the other hand, for an economy as large as mainland China's,\nif it doesn't have precious metals to anchor its currency, it's actually quite vulnerable.\nSo I think for mainland China now, first, there's less need for the US dollar, so it's slowly shifting away.\nPlus, with the world's geopolitics spiraling out of control, you have to prepare for the\nworst-case scenario in U.S. relations.\nTo protect your economic assets from future impact, you need tools to anchor your own currency.\nFurthermore, reliance on the US dollar and dollar-denominated assets is a weakness when\nyou're in a confrontation with the US so, you gradually swap those assets for other\ninstruments as a precaution, which is what they're doing.\nOf course, this also serves as leverage against the US.\nI don't think mainland China will sell everything off,\nbecause holding those 500 billion is, frankly, a tool to keep the US in check.\nWhy? Whenever the US negotiates with us, US representatives always say,\nplease, don't sell our treasury bonds. Then mainland China says, fine, I'll hold your bonds,\nbut you'd better not impose random tariffs on me. This is a bargaining chip against the US if\ndumping 50 billion makes you suffer, and I have 500 billion, I can even dump 100 billion. If I\ndump 100 billion, honestly, where would I put that money? Should I put it into gold, or keep it in\ntreasury bonds? Treasury bonds still pay interest, right? So where else could you possibly put it?\nYou can't just absorb that amount of money all at once. So are you going to buy euros instead?\nOr what else? So I think for mainland China, this continuous reduction of US dollar holdings is a\nlong-term warning and reminder to the US, saying don't provoke me, or I'll dump your US treasury\nbonds. Dump them. Dump them and cause your economy major problems. So I think this is a tool\nfor strategic maneuvering. For sunscreen, I choose KS Royal Anti-Photoaging Refreshing\nHigh Protection Sun Lotion. It contains precious plant extracts, slows down skin aging and\nmaintains youthful elasticity. Newly added three major formulas soothe skin discomfort,\nsoft focus brightening ingredients naturally correct skin tone,\nplus fermented corn moisturizing factors for a hydrating, easy to spread, and breathable feel.\n365 days of anti-photoaging and anti-aging, exclusively for you.", "language": "multilingual", "duration": 681.04125, "segments": [ { "start": 1.119, "end": 5.949, "text": "After the US and Japan joined forces, it was effective for a time, but the yen is now weak", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 0, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 5.949, "end": 8.469, "text": "again, returning to above 157.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 0, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 9.229, "end": 13.069, "text": "Naturally, everyone is asking why the US would step in to save the yen.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 0, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 14.281, "end": 18.291, "text": "It turns out that if the yen falls any further, the government would have to sell off a massive", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 18.291, "end": 20.211, "text": "amount of US treasuries to buy yen.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 20.691, "end": 23.291, "text": "They are essentially trying to take advantage of the situation.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 23.611, "end": 27.691, "text": "Well, there is analysis from others that if the yen raises interest rates, it will lose", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 27.691, "end": 32.071, "text": "its status as a carry trade tool, and subsequently become a vassal of the United States.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 32.291, "end": 34.151, "text": "Master, what is your take on this?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 34.911, "end": 39.851, "text": "Right, the main reason the US intervened in the yen was to successfully and indirectly", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 39.851, "end": 43.351, "text": "prevent Japan from selling US treasuries to save the yen.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 43.351, "end": 43.431, "text": "Right.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 43.931, "end": 50.131, "text": "Because during the last wave when the yen broke past 160, the Japanese government spent 74 billion US dollars.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 50.291, "end": 50.551, "text": "Right.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 50.751, "end": 53.151, "text": "And that 74 billion came from selling US treasuries.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 53.391, "end": 53.651, "text": "Um hum.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 53.851, "end": 59.631, "text": "So, what the US fears most right now is people selling US treasuries, because the US government itself has issues with its own debt.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 59.771, "end": 61.791, "text": "And what happens if they sell US treasuries?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 62.071, "end": 63.551, "text": "US bond yields go up.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 63.691, "end": 71.751, "text": "Once these yields rise, it will also create a massive strain on the finances of the US government, which is already 40 trillion dollars in debt.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 71.751, "end": 77.071, "text": "So they want to prevent Japan from selling US treasuries, and the way they are saving the yen", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 77.071, "end": 82.811, "text": "this time is by having Japan use its US treasuries as collateral for the US government to lend them", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 82.811, "end": 87.611, "text": "money with a very short repayment period. It's just a temporary fix.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 0 }, { "start": 90.66, "end": 95.13, "text": "This process is essentially meant to warn currency speculators who might try to target", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 2, "language_run": 1 }, { "start": 95.13, "end": 99.23, "text": "the yen that the situation isn't that simple since the US has stepped in.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 2, "language_run": 1 }, { "start": 99.63, "end": 102.69, "text": "So if you short the yen, you might end up losing everything.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 2, "language_run": 1 }, { "start": 105.452, "end": 113.022, "text": "Using this method did briefly pull the yen up, back from 163 or 164 to 157 or 155.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 113.622, "end": 115.922, "text": "But it's back to 157 now.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 116.082, "end": 116.422, "text": "Yes.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 116.642, "end": 118.422, "text": "So it will be effective for a short time.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 118.622, "end": 121.782, "text": "Next time, the US might step in again, and it might be pulled back up.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 121.962, "end": 125.002, "text": "It will be pulled back, because, their agreement with Japan is simply,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 125.422, "end": 126.702, "text": "don't sell dollars, and,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 126.802, "end": 127.982, "text": "don't sell US treasuries.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 128.242, "end": 129.682, "text": "Don't sell US treasuries.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 129.962, "end": 132.022, "text": "Then Japan says, what should we do?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 132.122, "end": 134.142, "text": "And the US says, I'll lend you money.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 134.142, "end": 136.702, "text": "Use them as collateral, and I'll lend you the money.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 137.122, "end": 137.422, "text": "Quote.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 137.562, "end": 139.722, "text": "So this model might be used once or twice.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 139.922, "end": 142.062, "text": "However, it can only be used once or twice.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 142.262, "end": 143.782, "text": "After that, it won't be effective.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 143.982, "end": 146.542, "text": "It's ineffective now, because what is the core problem?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 146.942, "end": 151.422, "text": "If the Bank of Japan doesn't raise interest rates, the interest rate spread remains the", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 151.422, "end": 152.662, "text": "biggest issue for the yen.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 153.182, "end": 156.48, "text": "The spread between it and the US dollar is around 3%.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 157.823, "end": 161.893, "text": "Many Japanese people are basically selling yen to buy dollars, right?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 162.793, "end": 169.413, "text": "In Japan, I borrow money at only a 1% interest rate, and I take it to the US to earn 4% interest.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 169.733, "end": 170.953, "text": "I'm just doing arbitrage.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 171.173, "end": 173.393, "text": "Arbitrage, even if the amount isn't small.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 173.613, "end": 177.793, "text": "If I use a large amount of money for arbitrage, that's a very substantial income,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 178.213, "end": 181.833, "text": "so if this interest rate gap isn't resolved, the yen won't be saved.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 182.193, "end": 184.993, "text": "On the other hand, there's Japan's economic fundamentals,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 184.993, "end": 187.833, "text": "because a currency's foundation is the country's economy.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 188.033, "end": 190.993, "text": "The Japanese economy hasn't shown any signs of improvement.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 191.233, "end": 194.373, "text": "No improvement at all, and all of Japan's strengths are gone.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 194.913, "end": 199.873, "text": "Now, if you want to buy electrical appliances, you buy either Korean or Chinese ones.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 200.173, "end": 201.953, "text": "Do you still have Japanese appliances?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 202.333, "end": 202.593, "text": "Right?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 202.813, "end": 204.673, "text": "Not many, maybe only in Taiwan.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 204.933, "end": 206.113, "text": "Elsewhere, not much.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 206.353, "end": 207.653, "text": "You don't really see them anymore.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 207.653, "end": 212.733, "text": "When we were kids, refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, they were all Japanese goods.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 212.953, "end": 213.153, "text": "Yeah.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 213.633, "end": 213.933, "text": "Right?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 214.193, "end": 214.893, "text": "All Japanese.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 214.993, "end": 218.673, "text": "Even all those trendy electronic products were Japanese.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 219.793, "end": 221.913, "text": "And Japanese cars, what can you say?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 223.129, "end": 228.239, "text": "China's car exports in the first half of this year have already exceeded 7 million vehicles.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 5, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 229.619, "end": 234.849, "text": "Japan only exported 4 million cars all of last year, so the auto market is gone too.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 235.229, "end": 241.409, "text": "And you say new industries like AI, do they have them? No. Then chips, do they have them? No,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 241.689, "end": 247.389, "text": "only lithography equipment, right? They still need our TSMC to help support them in chips.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 247.889, "end": 253.809, "text": "And other new energy sources, do they have those? No, this country, Japan, doesn't.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 254.129, "end": 257.129, "text": "Its industrial competitiveness is already gone.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 258.485, "end": 261.195, "text": "Then there's the aging population and labor shortages.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 263.028, "end": 266.978, "text": "And there's another major factor. They act arrogant toward mainland China,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 8, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 266.978, "end": 271.298, "text": "and China cuts off their essential raw materials for industrial production.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 8, "language_run": 2 }, { "start": 274.403, "end": 278.293, "text": "Once cut off, Japan can't make many of its industrial products now,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 9, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 278.613, "end": 284.273, "text": "including the auto industry facing a crisis, so Japan's economic fundamentals don't look promising.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 9, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 284.913, "end": 288.293, "text": "You can use temporary means and tools to stop the yen from falling.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 9, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 289.888, "end": 290.538, "text": "Right.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 10, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 290.538, "end": 295.198, "text": "But in the long term, many say by the end of the year, they might not even be able to", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 10, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 295.198, "end": 296.978, "text": "hold the 170 line.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 10, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 298.175, "end": 304.885, "text": "It could even be lower. As for Kushida, his only ways to save it are, first, beg the US for help.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 11, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 305.405, "end": 309.965, "text": "I'd say asking the US for help might have short-term effects, but not in the long run.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 11, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 310.925, "end": 314.185, "text": "Second, he says, I'll just cancel the consumption tax.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 11, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 316.092, "end": 321.282, "text": "And many Japanese people are saying that, honestly, the government is already in financial trouble.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 12, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 322.768, "end": 326.958, "text": "Right? And you still want to take an important tax source and do what with it?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 13, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 327.858, "end": 331.238, "text": "Once you abolish it, where will the Japanese public's pensions,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 13, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 331.578, "end": 336.058, "text": "retirement funds, medical subsidies, and social education funding come from?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 13, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 337.412, "end": 340.702, "text": "They'll just keep getting cut, so what is the public supposed to say?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 341.482, "end": 343.582, "text": "People's lives are getting harder and harder.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 344.442, "end": 349.982, "text": "So, Japan's economic situation is, how should I put it, it's already caught between a rock", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 349.982, "end": 355.142, "text": "and a hard place, and on top of that, Kushida can't come up with any solutions, hum.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 355.902, "end": 359.142, "text": "Then rely on the US but to be honest, is the US reliable?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 359.882, "end": 362.562, "text": "Yeah, so the outlook for Japan is very bleak.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 362.562, "end": 368.102, "text": "Right, although the US doesn't want Japan to sell off US treasuries, the fact is that", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 368.102, "end": 374.382, "text": "China has been steadily reducing its holdings, having already sold off 657 billion US dollars", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 374.382, "end": 378.922, "text": "in treasuries and pivoted to buying over 300 billion US dollars in gold.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 379.462, "end": 381.102, "text": "Right, why is it like this?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 381.282, "end": 385.562, "text": "The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 21 consecutive months,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 385.562, "end": 387.662, "text": "and the scale is expanding month by month.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 387.922, "end": 388.862, "text": "There are three reasons.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 388.862, "end": 394.222, "text": "geopolitical risks, the rising risk of US treasuries themselves, and the unique nature", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 394.222, "end": 399.522, "text": "of gold. Of course, the World Gold Council also predicts that global official gold reserves will", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 399.522, "end": 404.622, "text": "continue to increase in the future. Including the second quarter of 2024, global central banks and", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 404.622, "end": 409.462, "text": "other official institutions purchased 289 tons of gold. Let's ask the ambassador for his take.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 409.462, "end": 414.362, "text": "Yes, China's previous peak in US treasury holdings was over a trillion dollars,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 414.362, "end": 419.442, "text": "but over the past two years, they have been constantly reducing them, constantly reducing", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 419.442, "end": 425.562, "text": "them. From 800 billion to 700 billion, it has now dropped below 700 billion. I think they will", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 425.562, "end": 431.722, "text": "continue to reduce them, because in fact, China is also pushing for, well, local currency trading.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 432.462, "end": 438.122, "text": "So, as the number one trading nation, they may no longer need such a large amount of US dollars on", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 438.122, "end": 442.402, "text": "hand, even though the dollar remains a primary tool for international trade.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 14, "language_run": 3 }, { "start": 444.798, "end": 450.208, "text": "So for China, they must still hold some, but during the Trump era, some hawks in the US,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 15, "language_run": 4 }, { "start": 450.688, "end": 453.668, "text": "those anti-China hawks, actually made some comments.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 15, "language_run": 4 }, { "start": 456.935, "end": 461.665, "text": "They said that since China trades with us unfairly and causes such a huge trade deficit,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 16, "language_run": 5 }, { "start": 462.105, "end": 466.725, "text": "we have a way to punish China, which is to confiscate all of China's US treasuries.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 16, "language_run": 5 }, { "start": 468.751, "end": 469.431, "text": "Withhold them.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 17, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 469.671, "end": 471.031, "text": "I mean, it's like saying.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 17, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 471.691, "end": 473.511, "text": "I owe you a trillion, right?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 17, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 473.691, "end": 477.771, "text": "If you bought my bond and kept it with me, and I decided our trade was unfair,", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 17, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 478.191, "end": 483.051, "text": "I could just confiscate that bond and claim it as my own, treating it as reparations.", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 17, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 483.391, "end": 487.731, "text": "If you threaten people like that, who would still dare to keep their money in your bank?", "language": "en", "chunk": 0, "local_language_run": 17, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 488.552, "end": 492.532, "text": "Yeah, right? You're just supposed to be looking after my money, aren't you?", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 0, "language_run": 6 }, { "start": 494.789, "end": 498.339, "text": "On the other hand, for an economy as large as mainland China's,", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 7 }, { "start": 498.639, "end": 503.139, "text": "if it doesn't have precious metals to anchor its currency, it's actually quite vulnerable.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 1, "language_run": 7 }, { "start": 507.172, "end": 513.702, "text": "So I think for mainland China now, first, there's less need for the US dollar, so it's slowly shifting away.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 2, "language_run": 8 }, { "start": 517.411, "end": 522.501, "text": "Plus, with the world's geopolitics spiraling out of control, you have to prepare for the", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 9 }, { "start": 522.501, "end": 524.861, "text": "worst-case scenario in U.S. relations.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 3, "language_run": 9 }, { "start": 528.477, "end": 533.607, "text": "To protect your economic assets from future impact, you need tools to anchor your own currency.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 4, "language_run": 10 }, { "start": 539.279, "end": 544.369, "text": "Furthermore, reliance on the US dollar and dollar-denominated assets is a weakness when", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 5, "language_run": 11 }, { "start": 544.369, "end": 549.309, "text": "you're in a confrontation with the US so, you gradually swap those assets for other", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 5, "language_run": 11 }, { "start": 549.309, "end": 552.009, "text": "instruments as a precaution, which is what they're doing.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 5, "language_run": 11 }, { "start": 557.867, "end": 560.937, "text": "Of course, this also serves as leverage against the US.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 561.057, "end": 563.797, "text": "I don't think mainland China will sell everything off,", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 564.137, "end": 569.097, "text": "because holding those 500 billion is, frankly, a tool to keep the US in check.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 6, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 570.799, "end": 576.149, "text": "Why? Whenever the US negotiates with us, US representatives always say,", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 576.449, "end": 581.589, "text": "please, don't sell our treasury bonds. Then mainland China says, fine, I'll hold your bonds,", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 581.849, "end": 586.189, "text": "but you'd better not impose random tariffs on me. This is a bargaining chip against the US if", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 586.189, "end": 592.509, "text": "dumping 50 billion makes you suffer, and I have 500 billion, I can even dump 100 billion. If I", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 592.509, "end": 598.229, "text": "dump 100 billion, honestly, where would I put that money? Should I put it into gold, or keep it in", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 598.229, "end": 603.609, "text": "treasury bonds? Treasury bonds still pay interest, right? So where else could you possibly put it?", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 604.169, "end": 608.909, "text": "You can't just absorb that amount of money all at once. So are you going to buy euros instead?", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 609.489, "end": 615.949, "text": "Or what else? So I think for mainland China, this continuous reduction of US dollar holdings is a", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 615.949, "end": 621.629, "text": "long-term warning and reminder to the US, saying don't provoke me, or I'll dump your US treasury", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 621.629, "end": 628.109, "text": "bonds. Dump them. Dump them and cause your economy major problems. So I think this is a tool", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 628.109, "end": 634.289, "text": "for strategic maneuvering. For sunscreen, I choose KS Royal Anti-Photoaging Refreshing", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 634.289, "end": 640.369, "text": "High Protection Sun Lotion. It contains precious plant extracts, slows down skin aging and", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 640.369, "end": 647.729, "text": "maintains youthful elasticity. Newly added three major formulas soothe skin discomfort,", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 648.229, "end": 651.249, "text": "soft focus brightening ingredients naturally correct skin tone,", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 651.249, "end": 656.729, "text": "plus fermented corn moisturizing factors for a hydrating, easy to spread, and breathable feel.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 }, { "start": 658.109, "end": 664.109, "text": "365 days of anti-photoaging and anti-aging, exclusively for you.", "language": "en", "chunk": 1, "local_language_run": 7, "language_run": 12 } ], "segmented_multilingual_transcription": { "status": "STABLE_SEGMENTED_MULTILINGUAL_OK", "created_at": "2026-08-12T00:13:31", "manifest": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260812_000758__美日聯手救不回日圓跌跌不休_貝森特竟拋售歐元趁火打劫_日本巨額美債慘淪華府傀儡_全球大視野_精華版_全球大視野Global_Vision/segmented_work/chunk_manifest.json", "audio": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260812_000758__美日聯手救不回日圓跌跌不休_貝森特竟拋售歐元趁火打劫_日本巨額美債慘淪華府傀儡_全球大視野_精華版_全球大視野Global_Vision/audio_16k_mono.wav", "audio_sha256": "45b354d677335eb42e2b80417eb9920b93594a767fc3260819a9b3bd0cec0e5d", "audio_duration": 681.04125, "model": "mlx-community/whisper-large-v3-turbo", "language_profile": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260812_000758__美日聯手救不回日圓跌跌不休_貝森特竟拋售歐元趁火打劫_日本巨額美債慘淪華府傀儡_全球大視野_精華版_全球大視野Global_Vision/multilingual_work/multilingual_language_profile.json", "dominant_languages": [ "en" ], "suppressed_languages": [], "chunk_count": 2, "completed_chunks": 2, "resumed_chunks": 0, "merged_segment_count": 152, "detected_languages": [ "en" ], "transcript_languages": [ "en" ], "missing_languages": [], "unexpected_languages": [], "language_sequence": [ "en" ], "speech_region_seconds": 604.6909999999999, "speech_covered_seconds": 565.3380000000004, "speech_coverage_ratio": 0.9349204800468347, "tail_repeat_run": 2, "tail_repeat_text": "Don't sell US treasuries.", "chunk_needs_review": [], "qc_ok": true, "qc_errors": [], "complete_review_artifact": true } }