{
  "text": "我們要帶你們來看到這個是聯發科\n現在我們看到了這個業界\n產業界大家對它的一個前景有志一同\n到底呢 聯發科最近在做什麼\n趕快有請這個國政哥帶我們來看看囉\n聯發科告訴大家說\n這個客製化的晶片\n這個市佔率目標上修到20%\n他選擇了一條跟博通不一樣的路\n到底為什麼\n對 我們來看聯發科\n我們來看聯發科這一次說的\n進來一點 進來一點\n我們來\n我們來看聯發科這次說法\n說說了什麼\n他把ESC的晶片\n本來他預估的目標是10到15%\n他突然說上修到15到20%\n當然上限就是20%\n他為什麼對ESC這麼的有信心\n而且未來佔比會很高\n他其實走了一條跟博通\n完全不同的道路\n他告訴別人是\n他把這個目標修正之後\n他同時去做一件事情\n是聯發科會做系統級的設計\n他不只要做晶片\n包括他要替Google\n去做所謂的基板的設計\n等於我幫Google可能往下去做到\n所謂的窄版這塊的設計\n以及基板的設計\n甚至我接下來要替Meta\n他們去做伺服器的機櫃\n這很不一樣\n它不是一家單純的IC設計公司\n它已經變成是\n我要整體幫你設計到\n整個AI伺服器的生意了\n所以包括Google的運算基板L6\n未來它除了替它做TPU之外\n它也幫它做所謂的\n整個基板的設計\n再來馬斯克的伺服器的機櫃\n雖然馬斯克現在在稱讚說\n灰島的晶片很好\n但是馬斯克的伺服器機櫃\n是要給聯發科跟他一起合作的\n所以市場現在看好是\n他未來的訂單會越好\n所以他把他X個上修\n因為他提供的是系統級的服務\n可是我們回來講\n那美國現在的所謂X可龍頭\n其實是博通\n博通做的是\n反而他說什麼\n我不要提供供應所謂的\n整合系統服務\n我要回歸只做\n晶片業務\n那這兩個其實產生了一個\n很懸殊的道路\n那當然先來講博通\n博通就去想一件事情是\n我去做這些系統\n其實我會拉低我的毛利\n我好好的專心\n做好我的純晶片服務的話\n我的毛利可以鎖定在65%\n所以大家會覺得說\n那我這樣還是很賺錢\n所以我投資價值不會被減下來\n可是對聯發科來講\n如果我去做基板的話\n那我可能相對的毛利\n或機櫃設計\n我相對的毛利就會比較低\n那大家怎麼去看聯發科呢\n就可能會產生不一樣的\n可是這兩條路選擇\n我們再看聯發科到底在想什麼\n當然我們這裡還必須回應一件事情是\n這些新買家以及舊買家\n他們過去都有體驗一件事情是\n他們繳了很多東西\n你知道叫做輝達稅跟博通稅\n也就是說我本來在跟你買晶片的時候\n像Google在買晶片的時候\n我還必須跟博通跟輝達\n繫結相關係統的產品\n所以以至於\n他付了相對比較多的錢\n這採購硬體\n那這個對於他們講\n叫做博通稅 揮達稅\n在Google這些雲章業者\n都體驗到了\n那聯發科就想到\n那我要解決這個問題\nGoogle他們就解決的問題就是\n那有人是不是能夠幫我\n把基板的採購跟伺服器的採購\n好好的搞明白 說清楚\n所以對於來講\n聯發科就可以把所謂的\n系統效能極大化\n以及客戶的需求\n給提高到極致\n所以對於Google\n這些買家來講\n我總算有人來\n好好的幫我搞清楚\n硬體這一端的事情\n跟整個機櫃的事情\n好 那對於聯發科來講\n這問題好處是什麼\n那我可以學會一件事情是\n我會學會揮打的模式\n什麼叫揮打模式是\n我不只揮打\n只會做晶片\n我還會做所謂的NB系統的設計\n那我就會懂得是\n整個系統是怎麼設計出來的\n他就會樹立他的差異化\n雖然他會犧牲毛利\n但是差異化就會出來了\n整個研發科他會變成什麼\n他會不像博通\n而是他會越來越像揮達\n就是往揮達那條路去走\n那有可能他會犧牲毛利\n那是他可以提高市佔\n那這裡回來\n為什麼他可以提高市佔的問題\n聯花科為什麼敢說是\n未來市場越來越大\n除了剛才我們講的\n所謂的Google這些人\nMeta這些人\n或者是馬斯克特斯拉\n他們因為所謂的系統機櫃\n付了都付很多錢\n所以需要有人來幫他設計\n晶片加整套服務之外\n其實還有很多新的買家\n正在崛起\n包括OpenAI跟Enthopi\n像Enthopi最近也宣佈說\n他也要跨入所謂的\n內系設計\n他也要自己做晶片\n那這裡必須要解釋一件事情\n要設計晶片\n沒有那麼容易\n現在進入了所謂的7nm之後\n要能夠設計晶片\n其實全球500大\n放眼全球500大\n每幾家公司\n願有那麼大的資源\n去真的設計出晶片\n所以還是交給專業的\n當然你可以有核心團隊\n但是後面的怎麼匯入\n所謂的臺積電的製程\nIntel的製程\n三星的製程\n還是需要有人協助\n所以相對的\n就叫ASC的服務\n所以新的客戶會越來越多\n甚至算力提供業者\n也想要跨入這個市場\n可是對於聯發科來講\n大家也不用說期待這塊會很大\n因為這個業務是相對會比較長\n所以真正的系統的業務\n其實要到兩年後\n所以短暫你要看到說\n馬上的數字也不可能\n不太可能\n所以相對的ESC這個順利量產\n其實才是聯發科真正\n我們要關心他能夠\n把這接晶片提供出來\n所以真正的成長\n還會是在ESC這一塊\n那所以這個應該是一條正確的路\n對於聯發科來講\n還有臺灣的供應鏈\n因為為什麼博通不去選擇這條路\n跟臺灣基於兩個地方不太一樣\n臺灣的優勢是\n相關的系統業者都在臺灣\n所以聯發科才有辦法做這件事情\n博通沒那麼簡單\n它的優勢比較明顯\n優勢會比較明顯\n當然博通也有\n當然博通必須\n它想要的是堅守這個利潤\n可是聯發科相對的\n在整個供應鏈都在臺灣的時候\n相對它的優勢就會比較明顯\n好 非常謝謝國登哥\n但我們看到\n這是聯發科做出了一條\n跟博通不一樣的選擇\n那當然我們有我們的一個利基點\n那聯發科這條路\n會不會走得很順暢呢\n就讓我們持續來觀察它\n我們要帶大家來看看了\n這個最近的一個大訊息\n就是臺積電最近\n有一點壓力\n是因為大家發現\n英特爾開始往前追了\n我們來看到說他威脅臺積電\n當然了 打一個大問號了\n但是人家的良率在提升\n這也是不爭的事實\n好我們來看先進封裝當中\n英特爾的良率據說\n拉到了將近九成\n好那它拉到九成\n還有一個就是\n他們說臺積電非常罕見的\n要跟著英特爾的屁股後面\n也要做他們的同樣的技術\n要開發類EMIB的一個專案\n是拉著緊碩一起\n這又代表什麼意思\n是英特爾做對了\n所以臺積電要學嗎\n那英特爾現在良率拉昇了\n真的會威脅到臺積電嗎\n請教一下石聰哥\n對 我覺得這個EMIB\n這個短時間之內\n不會對臺積電造成威脅\n但是長遠的來看\n的確是有可能\n所以為什麼臺積電\n它也要發展類似這樣的一個產品\n那我先跟它講\n主要原因是因為最近傳出來說\n英特爾的EMIB-T的良率\n已經來到90%\n那90%來說\n其實跟臺積電的CoOS的封裝\n是差不多的\n所以如果真的假設是這樣子的話\n我先說是假設是這個樣子的話\n那的確會對臺積電造成很大的壓力\n為什麼這樣講\n我先跟大家稍微解釋一下\n什麼叫做CoA\n什麼叫EMIB\n那我們知道事實上現在\n我們不是在一個晶片上面有\n包括說像CPU GPU\nHBM等等嗎\n然後把它完全的組裝在一起嗎\n你要封裝到下面的\n這個PCB上面的時候\n你要用一個中介層\n中介層下面是基板\n就是ABF基板\n但是你ABF跟這個晶片中間\n還有一個叫做這個COWAS\n這個系中介層\nCOWAS就是所謂的系中介層\n當成是這個連線的這個過程\n那因為它也是要用系的來\n這個製程\n所以我們知道系是很貴的東西\n所以它就是成本比較貴\n那系橋是怎麼樣\n它把它變成是說\n它在這個ABF裡面去挖這個橋\n挖那種這個橋\n這個我等於是晶片跟晶片\n之後我就用這個類似一個系橋\n用橋的方式把它接起來的一個狀況\n我就不要一整片\n對 我不用一整片\n我就省一些錢起來\n對 所以理論上\n它本來就會比這個太極電的\n因為它也要用矽\n我們知道這個矽條是誰在做\n聯電\n它也是要用晶圓代工的矽製程\n但是它的面積就小很多\n所以它直觀上\n它絕對會是比較\n成本比較低的\n但它會有一個問題是這樣子\n你在這個很多晶片要組合的時候\n你就要挖很多矽條\n這個難度會很高\n所以現在在大晶片\n或是說你要這個傳輸速度快的時候\n可能還是要用這個所謂COVAS\n但是EMIB如果這個技術越來越成熟\n比如說挖的越來越成熟的時候\n這可能的確會造成相關的影響\n尤其是如果我只要某些晶片\n跟某些晶片連線在一起的時候\n它的靈活度會更好\n那我可以省更多成分\n所以現在包括說像Google\n或者說像這個聯發科\n甚至像這個所謂Meta\n為什麼他們要採用\n因為我不需要用到像這個\n揮打GPU這麼高的這個算力的時候\n或許用這個EMIBT\n會是比較好的這個技術\n那當然因為這樣來說\n臺積電當然會緊張\n也就是說\n如果我要保有靈活度\n跟我的成本的時候\n我也要發展\n類似這樣一個產品\n所以現在傳言說\n他跟景碩\n為什麼會跟景碩合作\n因為我剛才講到\n他是要在ABF基板裡面挖橋\n所以他一定要跟ABF合作\n原因就在這個地方\n那你看到說\n這個Intel跟誰合作\nIntel當然就是跟這個星星\n或是跟這個Ebiton\n來互相的合作\n所以對臺積電來講\n為什麼他要發展\n這個類似EMIB的產品\n因為它目前為止的產能蠻宅\n它很怕說\n很多人會因為這個技術的便宜\n它就轉到那邊\n那我也有寄出相關的產品的話\n你未來就可能\n這個你要跳槽的可能性就比較低\n不過它現在EMIB遇到一個問題\n這是我們國內的這個栽班廠商\n或是日本廠商這個講的\n就是說沒有錯\n傳言說它的良率90%\n但是這個栽班廠商說還早\n我們國內的廠商就說\n這個良率目前要挖下去\n目前良率只有50%\n所以如果假設\n它良率只有50%的話\n你真的要大規模商產\n你說你90%\n但是基本上說是50%\n所以看起來我才說\n短時間之內可能\n很可能是實驗室90%\n對 或者說小批次OK\n但是你要真正大量量產\n可能有很大難度\n不過我們比如說\nEMIB來說對臺灣有沒有好處\n當然有\n事實上除了這個所謂\n這個Intel之外\n因為它要找一些相關的供應鏈\n目前為止最重要功力有兩個\n一個就是我們一直講到\n你要挖細橋\n細橋就是由臺積\n由聯電來做\n細橋原件這個部分\n另外一個部分是什麼\n細電容\n那細電容目前為止來說\n跟立基電互相的合作\n所以目前為止\n兩個可能是EMIB的\n還有聯發科要切入這個平臺\n那另外一個就是\n我覺得這個會讓怎麼樣\n因為他們會排擠掉一些\n成熟製程的這個產能\n所以原本成熟製程的\n已經是很缺了\n結果他們會受惠到這個封裝\n他們也會產能更缺\n所以你看前一陣子\n包括說像世界先進\n聯電 利基電都說什麼\n我們現在的產能利用率\n已經百分之90了\n那明年的產能會增加\n甚至明年還要再漲價\n所以你看毛利率以前\n如果以這個世界先進\n或聯電來說\n30就很偷笑了\n現在毛利率可以挑戰到\n45到50%\n所以完全是不一樣了\n那尤其是最近剛才\n大家都會討論到利基電\n因為黃衝任董事長\n不幸的往生了\n但是現在按照新團隊的說法是說\n明年我們一定會配息\n既然是黃聰能董事長的遺願\n我們一定會這樣做\n經營團隊不變\n賣給美光的可以500億的現金\n然後包括說跟美光合作\nHBM等等\n所以目前為止外資\n也把目標價上修到100塊\n所以我覺得其實這個部分\n就EMIB跟成熟製程\n我們可以一併合併來看\n裡面來講話\n當然利基電\n那你今天來說的話\n當然我覺得新經營團隊\n回到所謂專業經理人的部分\n那我覺得當然後續我們很期待說\n他能夠慢慢的走出\n黃松東董事長過市的壓力\n目前為止來說\n股價還沒有回到季線\n紅色是季線\n我覺得應該有機會回到季線之後\n站穩應該還有機會再往上挑戰\n那聯電來說的話\n剛才杜達士已經講了\n我覺得其實聯電在往下跌\n他今年EPS只好7塊到8塊\n你說百元左右\n我覺得其實是相對\n進入一個投資的價值\n另外一個就是\n剛才杜納斯有講到的\nABF載板這兩塊\n這兩塊來講的話\n你如果去看他們的\n第二季的獲利跟毛利\n其實升得最快的\n就是景碩跟新興兩檔\n尤其是他們接下來來說\n景碩獲得臺積電的合作\nIMIT的EMIB要跟他合作\n新興本來就有跟臺積電\n有在合作Coast的產品\n那又有在跟Intel在合作\n所以這兩家公司都是可以留意\n只是說他們的問題是什麼\n你看他們短期漲幅都很大\n他們都已經談過了季限\n而且還談了有一段幅度\n甚至緊縮距離歷史新高都不遠\n那這種股票我們只能夠\n拉回你再來考慮\n你千萬不要去追高\n就是他等談\n他這陣子談得非常的高\n談得非常高的時候表示什麼\n他有機會再創新高\n但是你千萬不要去追高\n等到拉回的時候\n再來逢低佈局\n這個景碩跟信心這兩家公司\n好 所以我們看到了\n這個是先進封裝的一個\n這個技術的一個\n這個拉扯競爭\n當然這個臺積電\n這個無庸置疑\n現在跑得最前面了\n那現在英特爾在往後追\n那帶出來的一些相關技術\n給大家做參考",
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  "duration": 864.4325,
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    {
      "start": 0.0,
      "end": 1.8,
      "text": "我們要帶你們來看到這個是聯發科",
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    {
      "start": 1.8,
      "end": 3.5,
      "text": "現在我們看到了這個業界",
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    {
      "start": 3.5,
      "end": 6.1,
      "text": "產業界大家對它的一個前景有志一同",
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    {
      "start": 6.1,
      "end": 8.0,
      "text": "到底呢 聯發科最近在做什麼",
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    {
      "start": 8.0,
      "end": 10.4,
      "text": "趕快有請這個國政哥帶我們來看看囉",
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      "text": "很懸殊的道路",
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      "start": 119.6,
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      "text": "那當然先來講博通",
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      "text": "博通就去想一件事情是",
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      "start": 123.6,
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      "text": "我去做這些系統",
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      "start": 125.1,
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      "text": "其實我會拉低我的毛利",
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      "start": 126.84,
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      "text": "我好好的專心",
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      "start": 128.2,
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      "text": "做好我的純晶片服務的話",
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      "start": 130.14,
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      "text": "我的毛利可以鎖定在65%",
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      "start": 132.24,
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      "text": "所以大家會覺得說",
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      "start": 133.3,
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      "text": "那我這樣還是很賺錢",
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      "start": 135.18,
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      "text": "所以我投資價值不會被減下來",
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      "start": 137.72,
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      "text": "可是對聯發科來講",
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      "start": 139.04,
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      "text": "如果我去做基板的話",
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      "start": 143.2,
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      "text": "或機櫃設計",
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      "text": "我相對的毛利就會比較低",
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      "start": 146.24,
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      "text": "那大家怎麼去看聯發科呢",
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      "start": 148.08,
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      "text": "就可能會產生不一樣的",
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      "start": 149.62,
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      "text": "可是這兩條路選擇",
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      "start": 151.38,
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      "text": "我們再看聯發科到底在想什麼",
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      "start": 154.14,
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      "text": "當然我們這裡還必須回應一件事情是",
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      "text": "這些新買家以及舊買家",
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      "start": 159.32,
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      "text": "他們過去都有體驗一件事情是",
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      "start": 162.18,
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      "text": "他們繳了很多東西",
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      "start": 163.64,
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      "text": "你知道叫做輝達稅跟博通稅",
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      "text": "也就是說我本來在跟你買晶片的時候",
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      "text": "我還必須跟博通跟輝達",
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      "start": 172.34,
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      "text": "繫結相關係統的產品",
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      "text": "所以以至於",
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      "start": 176.52,
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      "text": "他付了相對比較多的錢",
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    {
      "start": 178.88,
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      "text": "這採購硬體",
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      "start": 179.78,
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      "text": "那這個對於他們講",
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      "start": 181.1,
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      "text": "叫做博通稅 揮達稅",
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      "text": "在Google這些雲章業者",
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      "start": 184.48,
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      "text": "都體驗到了",
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      "text": "那聯發科就想到",
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      "start": 187.38,
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      "text": "那我要解決這個問題",
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      "text": "Google他們就解決的問題就是",
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      "start": 190.54,
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      "text": "那有人是不是能夠幫我",
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      "start": 194.08,
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      "text": "把基板的採購跟伺服器的採購",
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    {
      "start": 197.08,
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      "text": "好好的搞明白 說清楚",
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      "start": 199.28,
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      "text": "所以對於來講",
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      "start": 200.54,
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      "text": "聯發科就可以把所謂的",
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    {
      "start": 203.42,
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      "text": "系統效能極大化",
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      "start": 205.92,
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      "text": "以及客戶的需求",
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      "start": 207.56,
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      "text": "給提高到極致",
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      "text": "所以對於Google",
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      "start": 210.34,
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      "text": "這些買家來講",
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      "text": "我總算有人來",
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      "start": 212.9,
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      "text": "好好的幫我搞清楚",
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    {
      "start": 214.22,
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      "text": "硬體這一端的事情",
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    {
      "start": 215.94,
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      "text": "跟整個機櫃的事情",
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      "start": 217.34,
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      "text": "好 那對於聯發科來講",
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      "start": 219.04,
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      "text": "這問題好處是什麼",
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      "text": "那我可以學會一件事情是",
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      "text": "我會學會揮打的模式",
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      "text": "我不只揮打",
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      "text": "聯花科為什麼敢說是",
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      "start": 266.6,
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      "text": "或者是馬斯克特斯拉",
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      "start": 274.16,
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      "text": "晶片加整套服務之外",
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      "start": 278.94,
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      "text": "正在崛起",
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      "text": "包括OpenAI跟Enthopi",
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      "start": 283.74,
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      "text": "他也要跨入所謂的",
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      "start": 286.18,
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      "text": "內系設計",
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      "text": "他也要自己做晶片",
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      "start": 289.04,
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      "text": "那這裡必須要解釋一件事情",
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      "start": 293.4,
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      "start": 309.88,
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      "text": "甚至算力提供業者",
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      "start": 323.96,
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      "text": "可是對於聯發科來講",
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      "start": 325.18,
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      "text": "大家也不用說期待這塊會很大",
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      "text": "因為這個業務是相對會比較長",
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      "start": 334.06,
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      "start": 336.38,
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      "start": 338.56,
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      "text": "不太可能",
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      "start": 344.42,
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      "start": 352.98,
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      "text": "還有臺灣的供應鏈",
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      "start": 354.24,
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      "text": "因為為什麼博通不去選擇這條路",
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      "start": 356.16,
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      "start": 359.78,
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      "text": "相關的系統業者都在臺灣",
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      "start": 366.5,
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      "text": "它的優勢比較明顯",
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      "start": 373.5,
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      "start": 374.82,
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      "text": "在整個供應鏈都在臺灣的時候",
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      "start": 378.74,
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      "start": 380.54,
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      "start": 382.02,
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      "text": "跟博通不一樣的選擇",
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      "start": 383.52,
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      "start": 386.78,
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      "text": "會不會走得很順暢呢",
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      "start": 388.16,
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    {
      "start": 391.54,
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      "text": "這個最近的一個大訊息",
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      "text": "就是臺積電最近",
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      "start": 394.62,
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      "text": "有一點壓力",
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      "start": 401.54,
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      "start": 405.5,
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      "text": "這也是不爭的事實",
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      "start": 407.1,
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      "text": "好我們來看先進封裝當中",
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      "start": 411.7,
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      "text": "拉到了將近九成",
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      "start": 414.68,
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      "start": 416.72,
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      "start": 418.08,
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      "text": "他們說臺積電非常罕見的",
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      "start": 421.36,
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      "text": "要跟著英特爾的屁股後面",
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      "start": 424.14,
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      "text": "也要做他們的同樣的技術",
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    {
      "start": 426.8,
      "end": 430.06,
      "text": "要開發類EMIB的一個專案",
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      "start": 430.06,
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      "text": "是拉著緊碩一起",
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      "start": 431.54,
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      "text": "這又代表什麼意思",
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      "start": 433.12,
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      "start": 434.6,
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      "text": "所以臺積電要學嗎",
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      "start": 437.98,
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      "text": "真的會威脅到臺積電嗎",
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    {
      "start": 439.46,
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      "text": "請教一下石聰哥",
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      "start": 440.5,
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      "text": "對 我覺得這個EMIB",
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    {
      "start": 441.9,
      "end": 443.16,
      "text": "這個短時間之內",
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    {
      "start": 443.16,
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      "text": "不會對臺積電造成威脅",
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    {
      "start": 444.8,
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      "text": "但是長遠的來看",
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      "start": 446.02,
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      "text": "的確是有可能",
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      "start": 446.98,
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      "text": "所以為什麼臺積電",
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    {
      "start": 447.96,
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      "text": "它也要發展類似這樣的一個產品",
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      "start": 451.16,
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      "text": "那我先跟它講",
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    {
      "start": 452.28,
      "end": 454.0,
      "text": "主要原因是因為最近傳出來說",
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    {
      "start": 454.0,
      "end": 456.22,
      "text": "英特爾的EMIB-T的良率",
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    {
      "start": 456.22,
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      "text": "已經來到90%",
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      "start": 457.9,
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      "text": "那90%來說",
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    {
      "start": 458.92,
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      "text": "其實跟臺積電的CoOS的封裝",
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    {
      "start": 461.28,
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      "text": "是差不多的",
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    {
      "start": 462.24,
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      "text": "所以如果真的假設是這樣子的話",
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      "start": 464.52,
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      "text": "我先說是假設是這個樣子的話",
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      "start": 467.18,
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      "text": "那的確會對臺積電造成很大的壓力",
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    {
      "start": 469.88,
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      "text": "為什麼這樣講",
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      "start": 470.76,
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      "text": "我先跟大家稍微解釋一下",
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    {
      "start": 472.2,
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      "text": "什麼叫做CoA",
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      "start": 473.1,
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      "text": "什麼叫EMIB",
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      "start": 474.36,
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      "text": "那我們知道事實上現在",
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      "start": 476.3,
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      "text": "我們不是在一個晶片上面有",
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      "start": 478.36,
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      "text": "包括說像CPU GPU",
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      "start": 480.0,
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      "text": "HBM等等嗎",
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    {
      "start": 480.84,
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      "text": "然後把它完全的組裝在一起嗎",
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    {
      "start": 483.6,
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      "text": "你要封裝到下面的",
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    {
      "start": 485.4,
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      "text": "這個PCB上面的時候",
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      "start": 486.8,
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      "text": "你要用一個中介層",
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      "text": "中介層下面是基板",
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      "start": 490.62,
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      "text": "就是ABF基板",
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      "text": "但是你ABF跟這個晶片中間",
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      "start": 494.7,
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      "text": "還有一個叫做這個COWAS",
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      "start": 496.24,
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      "text": "這個系中介層",
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      "text": "COWAS就是所謂的系中介層",
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      "start": 499.7,
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      "text": "當成是這個連線的這個過程",
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      "start": 502.4,
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      "text": "那因為它也是要用系的來",
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      "start": 504.5,
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      "text": "這個製程",
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      "start": 505.24,
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      "text": "所以我們知道系是很貴的東西",
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      "start": 507.34,
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      "text": "所以它就是成本比較貴",
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      "start": 508.84,
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      "text": "那系橋是怎麼樣",
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      "start": 510.34,
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      "text": "它把它變成是說",
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      "start": 511.16,
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      "text": "它在這個ABF裡面去挖這個橋",
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      "start": 513.76,
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      "text": "挖那種這個橋",
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    {
      "start": 515.26,
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      "text": "這個我等於是晶片跟晶片",
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      "start": 516.76,
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      "text": "之後我就用這個類似一個系橋",
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      "start": 518.5,
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      "text": "用橋的方式把它接起來的一個狀況",
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    {
      "start": 520.9,
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      "text": "我就不要一整片",
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    {
      "start": 521.86,
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      "text": "對 我不用一整片",
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      "start": 522.76,
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      "text": "我就省一些錢起來",
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      "start": 524.36,
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      "text": "對 所以理論上",
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    {
      "start": 525.6,
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      "text": "它本來就會比這個太極電的",
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      "start": 527.7,
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      "text": "因為它也要用矽",
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      "start": 528.72,
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      "text": "我們知道這個矽條是誰在做",
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      "start": 531.3,
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      "text": "聯電",
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      "start": 531.9,
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      "text": "它也是要用晶圓代工的矽製程",
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      "start": 534.0,
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      "text": "但是它的面積就小很多",
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      "start": 535.72,
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      "text": "所以它直觀上",
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      "start": 536.98,
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    {
      "start": 538.14,
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      "text": "成本比較低的",
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    {
      "start": 539.38,
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      "text": "但它會有一個問題是這樣子",
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      "start": 540.98,
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      "text": "你在這個很多晶片要組合的時候",
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      "start": 543.68,
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      "text": "你就要挖很多矽條",
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    {
      "start": 545.48,
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      "text": "這個難度會很高",
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      "start": 547.06,
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      "text": "所以現在在大晶片",
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    {
      "start": 548.62,
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      "text": "或是說你要這個傳輸速度快的時候",
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    {
      "start": 550.76,
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      "text": "可能還是要用這個所謂COVAS",
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      "start": 553.44,
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    {
      "start": 556.46,
      "end": 558.44,
      "text": "比如說挖的越來越成熟的時候",
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    {
      "start": 558.44,
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      "text": "這可能的確會造成相關的影響",
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    {
      "start": 561.9,
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      "text": "尤其是如果我只要某些晶片",
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    {
      "start": 564.0,
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      "text": "跟某些晶片連線在一起的時候",
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    {
      "start": 565.72,
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      "text": "它的靈活度會更好",
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    {
      "start": 567.22,
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      "text": "那我可以省更多成分",
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    {
      "start": 568.92,
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      "text": "所以現在包括說像Google",
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    {
      "start": 570.68,
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      "text": "或者說像這個聯發科",
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    },
    {
      "start": 572.48,
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      "text": "甚至像這個所謂Meta",
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    {
      "start": 573.88,
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      "text": "為什麼他們要採用",
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      "start": 574.78,
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      "text": "因為我不需要用到像這個",
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    {
      "start": 576.76,
      "end": 579.46,
      "text": "揮打GPU這麼高的這個算力的時候",
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      "text": "或許用這個EMIBT",
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      "start": 581.6,
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      "text": "會是比較好的這個技術",
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      "start": 583.3,
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      "text": "那當然因為這樣來說",
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      "start": 584.78,
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      "text": "臺積電當然會緊張",
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      "start": 585.76,
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      "start": 586.4,
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      "text": "如果我要保有靈活度",
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    {
      "start": 587.88,
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      "text": "跟我的成本的時候",
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      "text": "我也要發展",
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    {
      "start": 590.1,
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      "text": "類似這樣一個產品",
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      "text": "所以現在傳言說",
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      "start": 593.06,
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      "start": 594.52,
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      "text": "因為我剛才講到",
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    {
      "start": 595.26,
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      "text": "他是要在ABF基板裡面挖橋",
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    {
      "start": 598.36,
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      "text": "所以他一定要跟ABF合作",
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    {
      "start": 601.08,
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      "text": "原因就在這個地方",
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    {
      "start": 602.2,
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      "text": "那你看到說",
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    {
      "start": 602.9,
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      "text": "這個Intel跟誰合作",
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      "start": 604.18,
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      "text": "Intel當然就是跟這個星星",
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    {
      "start": 606.44,
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      "text": "或是跟這個Ebiton",
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      "start": 607.76,
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      "text": "來互相的合作",
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      "start": 608.78,
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      "text": "所以對臺積電來講",
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    {
      "start": 610.22,
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      "text": "為什麼他要發展",
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    {
      "start": 611.28,
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      "text": "這個類似EMIB的產品",
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    {
      "start": 613.68,
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      "text": "因為它目前為止的產能蠻宅",
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    {
      "start": 615.8,
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      "text": "它很怕說",
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    {
      "start": 616.98,
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      "text": "很多人會因為這個技術的便宜",
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    {
      "start": 619.32,
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      "text": "它就轉到那邊",
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    {
      "start": 620.28,
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      "text": "那我也有寄出相關的產品的話",
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    {
      "start": 622.58,
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      "text": "你未來就可能",
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    {
      "start": 623.56,
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      "text": "這個你要跳槽的可能性就比較低",
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    {
      "start": 625.88,
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      "text": "不過它現在EMIB遇到一個問題",
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    {
      "start": 628.8,
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      "text": "這是我們國內的這個栽班廠商",
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    {
      "start": 631.82,
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      "text": "或是日本廠商這個講的",
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    {
      "start": 633.88,
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      "text": "就是說沒有錯",
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    {
      "start": 634.74,
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      "text": "傳言說它的良率90%",
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      "text": "成熟製程的這個產能",
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      "text": "現在毛利率可以挑戰到",
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      "text": "所以完全是不一樣了",
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      "text": "大家都會討論到利基電",
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      "text": "不幸的往生了",
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      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.15913419672512116,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.7184494238996493e-11,
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    {
      "start": 729.4,
      "end": 733.12,
      "text": "但是現在按照新團隊的說法是說",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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      "start": 733.12,
      "end": 735.3,
      "text": "明年我們一定會配息",
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    {
      "start": 735.3,
      "end": 737.4,
      "text": "既然是黃聰能董事長的遺願",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 737.4,
      "end": 738.4,
      "text": "我們一定會這樣做",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 738.4,
      "end": 740.1,
      "text": "經營團隊不變",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 740.1,
      "end": 744.6,
      "text": "賣給美光的可以500億的現金",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.17723778674477025,
      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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      "start": 744.6,
      "end": 746.18,
      "text": "然後包括說跟美光合作",
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      "start": 746.18,
      "end": 746.96,
      "text": "HBM等等",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 746.96,
      "end": 748.7,
      "text": "所以目前為止外資",
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 748.7,
      "end": 751.0,
      "text": "也把目標價上修到100塊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 751.0,
      "end": 752.52,
      "text": "所以我覺得其實這個部分",
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    {
      "start": 752.52,
      "end": 753.98,
      "text": "就EMIB跟成熟製程",
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 753.98,
      "end": 755.44,
      "text": "我們可以一併合併來看",
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    {
      "start": 755.44,
      "end": 756.62,
      "text": "裡面來講話",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 756.62,
      "end": 758.18,
      "text": "當然利基電",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 4.7203522340888426e-11,
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    {
      "start": 758.18,
      "end": 759.48,
      "text": "那你今天來說的話",
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    {
      "start": 759.48,
      "end": 760.88,
      "text": "當然我覺得新經營團隊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 760.88,
      "end": 764.08,
      "text": "回到所謂專業經理人的部分",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1716879770427407,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 764.08,
      "end": 766.34,
      "text": "那我覺得當然後續我們很期待說",
      "chunk": 1,
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    },
    {
      "start": 766.34,
      "end": 768.1,
      "text": "他能夠慢慢的走出",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 768.1,
      "end": 770.2,
      "text": "黃松東董事長過市的壓力",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 770.2,
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      "text": "目前為止來說",
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    {
      "start": 771.54,
      "end": 772.86,
      "text": "股價還沒有回到季線",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 772.86,
      "end": 773.8,
      "text": "紅色是季線",
      "chunk": 1,
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    },
    {
      "start": 773.8,
      "end": 775.68,
      "text": "我覺得應該有機會回到季線之後",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 775.68,
      "end": 777.9,
      "text": "站穩應該還有機會再往上挑戰",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1716879770427407,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 777.9,
      "end": 779.14,
      "text": "那聯電來說的話",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 779.14,
      "end": 780.9,
      "text": "剛才杜達士已經講了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1716879770427407,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 780.9,
      "end": 783.14,
      "text": "我覺得其實聯電在往下跌",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 783.14,
      "end": 786.08,
      "text": "他今年EPS只好7塊到8塊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1716879770427407,
      "no_speech_prob": 2.943718532821826e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 786.08,
      "end": 787.6,
      "text": "你說百元左右",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3920972644376899,
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    },
    {
      "start": 787.6,
      "end": 788.98,
      "text": "我覺得其實是相對",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    },
    {
      "start": 788.98,
      "end": 791.12,
      "text": "進入一個投資的價值",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.2413797340646866e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    },
    {
      "start": 791.12,
      "end": 792.38,
      "text": "另外一個就是",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    },
    {
      "start": 792.38,
      "end": 793.92,
      "text": "剛才杜納斯有講到的",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.2413797340646866e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    {
      "start": 793.92,
      "end": 795.58,
      "text": "ABF載板這兩塊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    {
      "start": 795.58,
      "end": 796.88,
      "text": "這兩塊來講的話",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    {
      "start": 796.88,
      "end": 798.22,
      "text": "你如果去看他們的",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    },
    {
      "start": 798.22,
      "end": 800.68,
      "text": "第二季的獲利跟毛利",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.18160116134151336,
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    },
    {
      "start": 800.68,
      "end": 802.44,
      "text": "其實升得最快的",
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    },
    {
      "start": 802.44,
      "end": 804.18,
      "text": "就是景碩跟新興兩檔",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.2413797340646866e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    {
      "start": 804.18,
      "end": 806.48,
      "text": "尤其是他們接下來來說",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    },
    {
      "start": 806.48,
      "end": 809.14,
      "text": "景碩獲得臺積電的合作",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.2413797340646866e-11,
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    {
      "start": 809.14,
      "end": 811.14,
      "text": "IMIT的EMIB要跟他合作",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 811.14,
      "end": 813.28,
      "text": "新興本來就有跟臺積電",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    {
      "start": 813.28,
      "end": 815.62,
      "text": "有在合作Coast的產品",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3380782918149465,
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    {
      "start": 815.62,
      "end": 817.96,
      "text": "那又有在跟Intel在合作",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 817.96,
      "end": 820.08,
      "text": "所以這兩家公司都是可以留意",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
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    {
      "start": 820.08,
      "end": 821.98,
      "text": "只是說他們的問題是什麼",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
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    {
      "start": 821.98,
      "end": 824.22,
      "text": "你看他們短期漲幅都很大",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09720758531914382,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 824.22,
      "end": 826.18,
      "text": "他們都已經談過了季限",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09720758531914382,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3933933933933933,
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    {
      "start": 826.18,
      "end": 827.96,
      "text": "而且還談了有一段幅度",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3933933933933933,
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    },
    {
      "start": 827.96,
      "end": 830.38,
      "text": "甚至緊縮距離歷史新高都不遠",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.09720758531914382,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
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    {
      "start": 830.38,
      "end": 831.7,
      "text": "那這種股票我們只能夠",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.09720758531914382,
      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3933933933933933,
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    {
      "start": 831.7,
      "end": 833.42,
      "text": "拉回你再來考慮",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 3.545080548561508e-11,
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    {
      "start": 833.42,
      "end": 834.56,
      "text": "你千萬不要去追高",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3933933933933933,
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    {
      "start": 834.56,
      "end": 835.7,
      "text": "就是他等談",
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      "text": "他這陣子談得非常的高",
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      "text": "談得非常高的時候表示什麼",
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      "text": "但是你千萬不要去追高",
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      "text": "等到拉回的時候",
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      "text": "再來逢低佈局",
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    {
      "start": 844.48,
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      "text": "這個景碩跟信心這兩家公司",
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      "text": "好 所以我們看到了",
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      "text": "這個是先進封裝的一個",
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      "text": "這個技術的一個",
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      "start": 852.94,
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      "text": "當然這個臺積電",
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      "text": "現在跑得最前面了",
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      "text": "那帶出來的一些相關技術",
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      "text": "給大家做參考",
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