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如果一种技术能让国家更富裕

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你会支持它吗

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大多数人会说

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当然

5
00:00:07,340 --> 00:00:10,580
但历史上有很多统治者

6
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他们的答案恰恰相反

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00:00:12,660 --> 00:00:14,620
1485年

8
00:00:14,620 --> 00:00:17,980
德国金匠古腾堡发明了活字印刷机

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00:00:17,980 --> 00:00:21,560
他以惊人的速度改写欧洲文明的走向

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书籍的价格暴跌了80%

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00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,220
原本只有贵族才能接触到的知识

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开始涌入普通人的家里

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大学在扩张

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思想在碰撞

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一个崭新的时代正在到来

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与此同时

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横跨欧亚非三大洲的

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鄂图曼帝国

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做出了一个令人费解的决定

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禁止使用阿拉伯文印刷

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为者处死

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于是

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在接下来整整三百年里

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欧洲靠印刷传播知识

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催生了宗教改革

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科学革命

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启蒙运动

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而鄂图曼帝国

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这个曾经让整个欧洲颤抖的超级大国

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依然在用手抄书

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这些人为何要这样决定呢

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鄂图曼帝国的苏丹们精明得很

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他们非常清楚印刷机的威力

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正是因为太清楚了才要禁止它

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他们怕的不是技术本身

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他们怕的是技术背后的东西

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当知识不再被少数人垄断

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当普通人开始有能力思考

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现有的权力秩序还能维持多久

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这个故事是打开今天这本书最好的钥匙

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欢迎来到天天读书会

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这期我们分享的书是

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国家为什么会失败

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两位经济学家

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戴伦·艾塞莫鲁和詹姆斯·罗宾森

46
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花了15年走遍武大洲写成了这本书

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这本书帮助他们获得了

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2024年诺贝尔经济学奖

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他们要回答的是一个困扰人类

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几百年的终极问题

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为什么有些国家富裕

52
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有些国家贫穷

53
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他们找到的答案

54
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指向了一群很有权势的人

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同样的天空

56
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不同的命运

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在给出答案之前

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我们先来看一个案例

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美国和墨西哥边境

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有一座叫诺加莱斯的城市

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一道铁丝网从中间穿过

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把它分成了两个世界

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北边属于美国

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南边属于墨西哥

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铁丝网两边的人

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说着同样的语言

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有着相似的文化

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很多家庭甚至拥有共同的祖先

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如果做基因检测

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他们几乎没有区别

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但北边的人收入是南边的三倍以上

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治安更好

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孩子更容易接受教育

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开一家小餐馆只要合法经营

75
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就有机会把生意做大

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而难辨的人却长期生活在犯罪

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腐败和低效率之中

78
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同样开一家餐馆

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面对的却是繁琐审批

80
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层层盘剥和各种不确定性

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同一片沙漠

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同一种文化

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同一群人的后代

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唯一不同的是他们脚下那套规则

85
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那么为什么仅仅规则的差别

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就能决定一个国家的贫与负呢

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两种制度

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书里没有笼统地说

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搞好制度就行了

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两位作者把制度精确地分成了两种类型

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第一种叫诈取型制度

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它的核心逻辑是

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把权力和财富集中在少数人手里

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政治上决策被一小群人垄断

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普通人没有参与权

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经济上

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规则被设计成

98
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从多数人身上抽取

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供养少数人

100
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你辛辛苦苦干活

101
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成果被拿走大半

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在这种制度下

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努力不会让你变富

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只会让剥削你的人更富

105
00:04:02,940 --> 00:04:06,060
第二种叫广纳型制度

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它的核心逻辑恰恰相反

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让大多数人都有参与的机会

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权力被分散

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产权受保护

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法律面前人人平等

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你有好点子就能去尝试

112
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失败了可以再来

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成功了果实是你自己的

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在这种制度下

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创新被鼓励

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努力有回报

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所以每个人都有动力去创造

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一句话概括

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广纳型制度让多数人创造财富

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榨取型制度让少数人掠夺财富

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回到开头的印刷机

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同样的技术

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欧洲欢迎他

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因为广纳型制度正在萌芽

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新知识 新思想被允许流通

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鄂图曼帝国封杀他

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因为榨取形的权力结构

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不允许任何动摇

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现有秩序的东西存在

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技术从来不是问题

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谁有权决定

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技术能不能被使用才是问题

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这种逻辑不仅适用于国家

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企业 组织 乃至家庭

135
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其实都遵循同样的规律

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但问题来了

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既然答案这么清楚

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搞广纳型制度就好了

139
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那为什么全世界还有那么多穷国

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那些领导人是太蠢了

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还是不懂这个道理

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接下来这一层

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是这本书最刺痛人的地方

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贫穷是被设计出来的

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答案不是他们不懂

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恰恰相反

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他们太懂了

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世界银行

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国际货币基金组织

150
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几十年来做了一件事

151
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派一批又一批经济学家去穷国

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教他们怎么搞好经济

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开放市场

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保护产权

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投资教育

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打击腐败

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所有正确答案都端上桌了

158
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结果呢

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大部分时候

160
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钱花了

161
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顾问走了

162
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什么也没改变

163
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,720
很多国家甚至越援助越穷

164
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为什么

165
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因为那些统治者

166
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不是不知道怎么让国家变富

167
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他们非常清楚

168
00:06:12,540 --> 00:06:14,520
但他们算了一笔账

169
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如果真的开放市场

170
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就会冒出新的有钱人

171
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来挑战他们的地位

172
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如果产权得到保护

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他们就不能随意

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没收别人的财产了

175
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如果教育普及了

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人民开始独立思考

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就不那么好控制了

178
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如果腐败被打击了

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他们自己的利益链条就断了

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所以他们做了一个冷静的

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理性的

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深思熟虑的选择

183
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让国家继续穷

184
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因为在一个贫穷

185
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无力反抗的社会里

186
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他们的权力最稳固

187
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他们的榨取最容易

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对他们来说

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一个贫穷但可控的国家

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远远好过一个富裕

191
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但无法掌控的国家

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这本书举了一个

193
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很黑色幽默的例子

194
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津巴布韦的穆加贝总统

195
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在位37年

196
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,800
他把白人农场主的土地没收

197
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分给了他的政治盟友

198
00:07:08,700 --> 00:07:11,340
一群根本不会种地的人

199
00:07:11,340 --> 00:07:14,840
结果粮食产量断崖式下跌

200
00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:16,600
全国陷入饥荒

201
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,340
但穆家贝本人和他的圈子

202
00:07:19,340 --> 00:07:20,780
从来没有挨过饿

203
00:07:20,780 --> 00:07:22,220
更荒诞的是

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00:07:22,220 --> 00:07:25,400
他曾经在自己操纵的国家彩票里

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赢得了头奖

206
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,840
所以贫穷不是失误

207
00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:30,840
而是选择

208
00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,340
不是事故

209
00:07:32,340 --> 00:07:33,520
而是设计

210
00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,640
换一个场景想想

211
00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,220
有没有一种公司的管理层

212
00:07:38,220 --> 00:07:41,280
明明知道放权能让公司做得更大

213
00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:42,520
但就是不放

214
00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:43,940
因为他算了一下

215
00:07:43,940 --> 00:07:45,380
放权之后

216
00:07:45,380 --> 00:07:47,140
蛋糕虽然变大了

217
00:07:47,140 --> 00:07:50,440
但自己不再是那个切蛋糕的人了

218
00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:51,660
对很多人来说

219
00:07:51,660 --> 00:07:53,220
切蛋糕的权利

220
00:07:53,220 --> 00:07:55,560
比蛋糕有多大更重要

221
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,360
最可怕的不是无知

222
00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,680
而是清醒地选择不改变

223
00:08:01,489 --> 00:08:06,189
理解了上面这一层

224
00:08:06,189 --> 00:08:08,109
我们再回头看历史上

225
00:08:08,109 --> 00:08:09,809
那些阻挡进步的故事

226
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就全通了

227
00:08:11,049 --> 00:08:12,609
19世纪

228
00:08:12,609 --> 00:08:14,589
铁路技术横扫欧洲

229
00:08:14,589 --> 00:08:15,969
谁都看得出来

230
00:08:15,969 --> 00:08:18,329
铁路意味着更快的运输

231
00:08:18,329 --> 00:08:19,509
更广的贸易

232
00:08:19,509 --> 00:08:20,649
更强的经济

233
00:08:20,649 --> 00:08:23,929
但奥匈帝国皇帝弗朗茨一世

234
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亲手阻止了铁路

235
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在帝国境内的修建

236
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俄国沙皇尼古拉一世

237
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也做了同样的事

238
00:08:30,909 --> 00:08:32,969
他们的理由很坦率

239
00:08:32,969 --> 00:08:35,289
铁路会带来人口流动

240
00:08:35,289 --> 00:08:37,509
流动会催生新阶级

241
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新阶级会要求分享权利

242
00:08:40,349 --> 00:08:42,509
他们做了一道算术题

243
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铁路让国家变富

244
00:08:44,749 --> 00:08:46,749
但我可能失去权力

245
00:08:46,749 --> 00:08:48,389
不修铁路

246
00:08:48,389 --> 00:08:49,509
国家穷一点

247
00:08:49,509 --> 00:08:50,809
但我的位子稳

248
00:08:50,809 --> 00:08:52,769
两害相权

249
00:08:52,769 --> 00:08:54,989
他们选择了让国家穷

250
00:08:54,989 --> 00:08:57,329
经济学家熊彼得

251
00:08:57,329 --> 00:08:58,829
有一个重要概念叫

252
00:08:58,829 --> 00:09:00,309
创造性破坏

253
00:09:00,309 --> 00:09:02,889
这是社会进步必经的阶段

254
00:09:02,889 --> 00:09:04,749
马车被汽车淘汰

255
00:09:04,749 --> 00:09:07,089
胶片被数码相机消灭

256
00:09:07,089 --> 00:09:09,909
传统书店被网络平台冲击

257
00:09:09,909 --> 00:09:11,829
这个过程虽然残酷

258
00:09:11,829 --> 00:09:14,329
但它是推动文明持续进步的

259
00:09:14,329 --> 00:09:15,129
唯一隐情

260
00:09:15,129 --> 00:09:17,249
但创造性破坏

261
00:09:17,249 --> 00:09:19,249
对当权者来说意味着什么

262
00:09:19,249 --> 00:09:22,229
意味着可能冒出新的赢家

263
00:09:22,229 --> 00:09:23,249
来取代他们

264
00:09:23,249 --> 00:09:26,549
所以在一个权力集中的体制里

265
00:09:26,549 --> 00:09:29,769
创新一定是最先被扼杀的东西

266
00:09:29,769 --> 00:09:32,469
不是因为当权者不懂创新好

267
00:09:32,469 --> 00:09:34,789
恰恰是因为他们太懂了

268
00:09:34,789 --> 00:09:35,829
才更害怕

269
00:09:35,829 --> 00:09:37,589
每一次创新

270
00:09:37,589 --> 00:09:40,809
本质上都是一次权力的重新洗牌

271
00:09:40,809 --> 00:09:42,569
进步最大的敌人

272
00:09:42,569 --> 00:09:43,929
从来不是愚蠢

273
00:09:43,929 --> 00:09:46,269
而是那些比谁都聪明

274
00:09:46,269 --> 00:09:48,369
但害怕在进步中

275
00:09:48,369 --> 00:09:49,949
失去自己位子的人

276
00:09:49,949 --> 00:09:52,349
比如在公司里

277
00:09:52,349 --> 00:09:54,149
当一个新人进入团队

278
00:09:54,149 --> 00:09:55,089
带来一种

279
00:09:55,089 --> 00:09:57,069
我们不熟悉的做事方式

280
00:09:57,069 --> 00:09:58,909
我们的第一反应是什么

281
00:09:58,909 --> 00:10:00,209
是好奇

282
00:10:00,209 --> 00:10:01,809
还是本能的抵触

283
00:10:01,809 --> 00:10:03,689
当一项新技术出现

284
00:10:03,689 --> 00:10:05,949
可能改变我们赖以为生的行业

285
00:10:05,949 --> 00:10:07,709
我们是主动学习

286
00:10:07,709 --> 00:10:09,609
还是找各种理由否定它

287
00:10:09,609 --> 00:10:11,349
权力的逻辑

288
00:10:11,349 --> 00:10:13,209
并不只存在于国家

289
00:10:13,209 --> 00:10:16,429
当一个人开始害怕失去既有位置时

290
00:10:16,429 --> 00:10:19,389
他往往会本能地抗拒改变

291
00:10:19,389 --> 00:10:22,569
替换掉当权者行吗

292
00:10:22,569 --> 00:10:24,209
好

293
00:10:24,209 --> 00:10:26,149
如果问题出在统治者

294
00:10:26,149 --> 00:10:28,049
那把统治者换掉不就行了

295
00:10:28,049 --> 00:10:30,069
历史给出的答案是

296
00:10:30,069 --> 00:10:31,629
远没有那么简单

297
00:10:31,629 --> 00:10:34,809
法国大革命推翻了路易十六

298
00:10:34,809 --> 00:10:35,789
然后呢

299
00:10:35,789 --> 00:10:37,989
罗伯斯比尔的恐怖统治来了

300
00:10:37,989 --> 00:10:38,929
再然后

301
00:10:38,929 --> 00:10:40,409
拿破仑称帝了

302
00:10:40,409 --> 00:10:42,809
俄国革命推翻了沙皇

303
00:10:42,809 --> 00:10:43,929
然后呢

304
00:10:43,929 --> 00:10:45,249
斯大林来了

305
00:10:45,249 --> 00:10:48,409
一个比沙皇还恐怖的独裁者

306
00:10:48,409 --> 00:10:50,229
非洲更典型

307
00:10:50,229 --> 00:10:51,609
殖民者走了

308
00:10:51,609 --> 00:10:54,609
但殖民者留下的那套榨取性结构

309
00:10:54,609 --> 00:10:56,429
被新的本国领导人

310
00:10:56,429 --> 00:10:58,049
原封不动地接了过来

311
00:10:58,049 --> 00:10:59,149
在塞拉利昂

312
00:10:59,149 --> 00:11:02,549
英国殖民者用那套结构榨取钻石

313
00:11:02,549 --> 00:11:03,749
独立之后

314
00:11:03,749 --> 00:11:06,769
新领导人也用它来榨取钻石

315
00:11:06,769 --> 00:11:09,789
只不过钱进了不同人的口袋

316
00:11:09,789 --> 00:11:11,969
他们拆掉了国王

317
00:11:11,969 --> 00:11:13,449
却没有拆掉王座

318
00:11:13,449 --> 00:11:14,689
换了人

319
00:11:14,689 --> 00:11:16,149
却没有改变制度

320
00:11:16,149 --> 00:11:18,229
德国社会学家

321
00:11:18,229 --> 00:11:19,869
罗伯特·米歇尔斯

322
00:11:19,869 --> 00:11:22,129
提出过一个很绝望的概念

323
00:11:22,129 --> 00:11:24,129
叫寡头铁律

324
00:11:24,129 --> 00:11:24,849
他说

325
00:11:24,849 --> 00:11:26,189
任何组织

326
00:11:26,189 --> 00:11:28,089
无论起初多么民主

327
00:11:28,089 --> 00:11:29,049
多么平等

328
00:11:29,049 --> 00:11:32,229
最终都会走向少数人掌权

329
00:11:32,229 --> 00:11:34,229
因为管理需要专业化

330
00:11:34,229 --> 00:11:35,749
专业化需要集中

331
00:11:35,749 --> 00:11:38,129
集中就产生了权力不对等

332
00:11:38,129 --> 00:11:39,789
一旦有人掌了权

333
00:11:39,789 --> 00:11:41,689
他们就会用手中的权力

334
00:11:41,689 --> 00:11:43,309
来巩固自己的位置

335
00:11:43,309 --> 00:11:46,049
于是历史出现了一个

336
00:11:46,049 --> 00:11:47,569
最让人绝望的循环

337
00:11:47,569 --> 00:11:50,489
革命者推翻了旧的压迫者

338
00:11:50,489 --> 00:11:53,509
自己却变成了新的压迫者

339
00:11:53,509 --> 00:11:55,589
血流了 命赔了

340
00:11:55,589 --> 00:11:57,329
排面还是差不多

341
00:11:57,329 --> 00:11:59,949
推翻一个暴君很容易

342
00:11:59,949 --> 00:12:01,889
难的是不让自己

343
00:12:01,889 --> 00:12:03,369
变成下一个暴君

344
00:12:03,369 --> 00:12:06,689
我们身边也有小规模的版本

345
00:12:06,689 --> 00:12:08,529
很多人创业的初衷是

346
00:12:08,529 --> 00:12:11,309
我受够了那种糟糕的管理方式

347
00:12:11,309 --> 00:12:14,089
可等他自己当了老板之后呢

348
00:12:14,089 --> 00:12:16,129
不知不觉就变成了

349
00:12:16,129 --> 00:12:17,829
他当初最讨厌的那种人

350
00:12:17,829 --> 00:12:19,709
不是因为他变坏了

351
00:12:19,709 --> 00:12:20,969
是因为椅子没变

352
00:12:20,969 --> 00:12:22,609
那个鼓励极权

353
00:12:22,609 --> 00:12:25,009
缺乏制衡的结构没有变

354
00:12:25,009 --> 00:12:26,589
人一坐上去

355
00:12:26,589 --> 00:12:28,429
就会被那个结构塑造

356
00:12:28,429 --> 00:12:30,289
那么问题来了

357
00:12:30,289 --> 00:12:32,089
如果换人没用

358
00:12:32,089 --> 00:12:34,009
靠什么才能真正改变

359
00:12:34,009 --> 00:12:37,089
繁荣杀死了自己

360
00:12:37,089 --> 00:12:41,069
如果只有穷国和独裁国家

361
00:12:41,069 --> 00:12:42,329
才会陷入困局

362
00:12:42,329 --> 00:12:44,409
那事情还不算太复杂

363
00:12:44,409 --> 00:12:48,029
但这本书告诉我们一个更残酷的真相

364
00:12:48,029 --> 00:12:51,029
即使曾经辉煌到极致的地方

365
00:12:51,029 --> 00:12:53,789
也可能亲手把繁荣杀死

366
00:12:53,789 --> 00:12:56,369
13世纪之前的威尼斯

367
00:12:56,369 --> 00:12:58,249
是全欧洲最开放

368
00:12:58,249 --> 00:12:59,749
最有活力的城市

369
00:12:59,749 --> 00:13:01,589
它有一种制度创新

370
00:13:01,589 --> 00:13:03,489
叫康曼达契约

371
00:13:03,489 --> 00:13:05,149
一个穷小子

372
00:13:05,149 --> 00:13:08,069
可以跟有钱的投资人合伙做生意

373
00:13:08,069 --> 00:13:09,929
赚了按比例分成

374
00:13:09,929 --> 00:13:11,829
亏了各担风险

375
00:13:11,829 --> 00:13:14,049
这让穷人也能靠本事翻身

376
00:13:14,049 --> 00:13:15,509
阶层流动飞快

377
00:13:15,509 --> 00:13:17,029
靠着这种开放

378
00:13:17,029 --> 00:13:19,009
威尼斯成了地中海上

379
00:13:19,009 --> 00:13:20,329
最耀眼的明珠

380
00:13:20,329 --> 00:13:24,009
然后1297年发生了一件事

381
00:13:24,009 --> 00:13:26,789
那些已经靠这套制度

382
00:13:26,789 --> 00:13:28,049
发了大财的家族

383
00:13:28,049 --> 00:13:29,929
现在他们已经是

384
00:13:29,929 --> 00:13:31,089
威尼斯的贵族了

385
00:13:31,089 --> 00:13:32,529
他们做了一个决定

386
00:13:32,529 --> 00:13:35,049
他们立法关闭了大议会

387
00:13:35,049 --> 00:13:36,349
从此以后

388
00:13:36,349 --> 00:13:38,869
只有已经在策的贵族家族

389
00:13:38,869 --> 00:13:40,909
才能参与政治和商业

390
00:13:40,909 --> 00:13:43,869
他们还废除了康曼达契约

391
00:13:43,869 --> 00:13:45,449
把赚钱的生意

392
00:13:45,449 --> 00:13:48,249
全部垄断在几大家族手里

393
00:13:48,249 --> 00:13:50,589
当时的威尼斯贵族

394
00:13:50,589 --> 00:13:52,089
一定觉得自己做了

395
00:13:52,089 --> 00:13:53,789
全世界最聪明的决定

396
00:13:53,789 --> 00:13:55,129
我上来了

397
00:13:55,129 --> 00:13:56,209
把梯子收走

398
00:13:56,209 --> 00:13:58,509
后面的人永远别想上来

399
00:13:58,509 --> 00:14:01,229
我家的财富就能代代永享

400
00:14:01,229 --> 00:14:02,989
但结果呢

401
00:14:02,989 --> 00:14:04,469
创新枯萎了

402
00:14:04,469 --> 00:14:06,109
因为新人进不来

403
00:14:06,109 --> 00:14:07,509
贸易萎缩了

404
00:14:07,509 --> 00:14:09,509
因为垄断杀死了竞争

405
00:14:09,509 --> 00:14:11,589
年轻人要么离开

406
00:14:11,589 --> 00:14:12,749
要么认命

407
00:14:12,749 --> 00:14:15,509
曾经全欧洲最繁华的商业帝国

408
00:14:15,509 --> 00:14:16,949
慢慢变成了一座

409
00:14:16,949 --> 00:14:19,329
供游客参观的博物馆

410
00:14:19,329 --> 00:14:22,309
没有任何外敌打败威尼斯

411
00:14:22,309 --> 00:14:25,529
它是被最成功的那批人亲手杀死的

412
00:14:25,529 --> 00:14:28,849
作者从这里揭示了一条残酷的规律

413
00:14:28,849 --> 00:14:30,689
创造繁荣的制度

414
00:14:30,689 --> 00:14:33,549
最终会制造既得利益集团

415
00:14:33,549 --> 00:14:35,609
而既得利益集团

416
00:14:35,609 --> 00:14:37,889
又会反过来封闭制度

417
00:14:37,889 --> 00:14:39,069
扼杀繁荣

418
00:14:39,069 --> 00:14:40,949
想想我们自己

419
00:14:40,949 --> 00:14:42,949
当我们在某个领域

420
00:14:42,949 --> 00:14:44,769
积累了一些经验和地位

421
00:14:44,769 --> 00:14:45,929
内心深处

422
00:14:45,929 --> 00:14:48,129
是不是也有一种隐隐的冲动

423
00:14:48,129 --> 00:14:50,489
最好不要来新人超过我

424
00:14:50,489 --> 00:14:53,289
最好这个行业不要变化太快

425
00:14:53,289 --> 00:14:55,769
这种念头太微小了

426
00:14:55,769 --> 00:14:57,329
微小到我们自己

427
00:14:57,329 --> 00:14:58,929
都不觉得它是危险的

428
00:14:58,929 --> 00:15:00,369
但它的本质

429
00:15:00,369 --> 00:15:01,989
和1297年

430
00:15:01,989 --> 00:15:04,249
威尼斯贵族关闭大议会时

431
00:15:04,249 --> 00:15:05,489
心里想的东西

432
00:15:05,489 --> 00:15:06,549
没有区别

433
00:15:06,549 --> 00:15:09,269
时代的岔路口

434
00:15:09,269 --> 00:15:12,129
还有一个更深的问题

435
00:15:12,129 --> 00:15:14,209
历史上的制度本身

436
00:15:14,209 --> 00:15:15,569
是怎么形成的

437
00:15:15,569 --> 00:15:18,029
为什么有的国家走向了开放

438
00:15:18,029 --> 00:15:20,309
有的国家走向了封闭

439
00:15:20,309 --> 00:15:22,149
1347年

440
00:15:22,149 --> 00:15:24,569
一艘从克里米亚驶来的商船

441
00:15:24,569 --> 00:15:26,649
停靠在意大利西西里岛

442
00:15:26,649 --> 00:15:29,069
这艘船带来了鼠疫赶军

443
00:15:29,069 --> 00:15:30,889
在接下来几年里

444
00:15:30,889 --> 00:15:33,449
它杀死了欧洲将近一半的人口

445
00:15:33,449 --> 00:15:35,509
这就是黑死病

446
00:15:35,509 --> 00:15:38,289
人类史上最恐怖的瘟疫之一

447
00:15:38,289 --> 00:15:41,549
但让人深思的不是死亡的规模

448
00:15:41,549 --> 00:15:45,109
而是同一场灾难落在不同的土壤上

449
00:15:45,109 --> 00:15:47,469
竟然长出了完全相反的果实

450
00:15:47,469 --> 00:15:50,529
在西欧 英国 法国

451
00:15:50,529 --> 00:15:53,609
黑死病造成了劳动力的急剧短缺

452
00:15:53,609 --> 00:15:56,709
活下来的农民突然变得稀缺了

453
00:15:56,709 --> 00:15:58,509
领主急需人干活

454
00:15:58,509 --> 00:16:00,409
农民的溢价能力飙升

455
00:16:00,409 --> 00:16:02,649
他们开始要求更高的工资

456
00:16:02,649 --> 00:16:03,749
更多的自由

457
00:16:03,749 --> 00:16:06,189
封建农奴制开始松动

458
00:16:06,189 --> 00:16:06,829
瓦解

459
00:16:07,145 --> 00:16:09,265
这条路走了几百年

460
00:16:09,265 --> 00:16:11,885
最终通向了后来的商业革命

461
00:16:11,885 --> 00:16:12,885
工业革命

462
00:16:12,885 --> 00:16:13,945
现代民主

463
00:16:13,945 --> 00:16:15,665
但在东欧

464
00:16:15,665 --> 00:16:16,405
波兰

465
00:16:16,405 --> 00:16:17,285
普鲁士

466
00:16:17,285 --> 00:16:18,125
俄国

467
00:16:18,125 --> 00:16:20,025
同样的劳动力短缺

468
00:16:20,025 --> 00:16:21,545
领主的反应

469
00:16:21,545 --> 00:16:22,585
不是让步

470
00:16:22,585 --> 00:16:23,905
而是加码

471
00:16:23,905 --> 00:16:25,305
他们趁着混乱

472
00:16:25,305 --> 00:16:27,085
加强了对农民的控制

473
00:16:27,085 --> 00:16:30,425
用法律把农民更紧地绑在土地上

474
00:16:30,425 --> 00:16:31,825
加重劳逸义务

475
00:16:31,825 --> 00:16:35,485
历史上把这叫做第二次农奴制

476
00:16:35,485 --> 00:16:37,325
比之前还要严苛

477
00:16:37,325 --> 00:16:39,245
同样的灾难

478
00:16:39,245 --> 00:16:40,425
同样的冲击

479
00:16:40,425 --> 00:16:42,385
完全相反的结果

480
00:16:42,385 --> 00:16:44,305
差别在哪里

481
00:16:44,305 --> 00:16:46,505
差在一个微小的初始条件

482
00:16:46,505 --> 00:16:48,365
黑死病来临之前

483
00:16:48,365 --> 00:16:50,865
西欧的城市化程度稍微高一些

484
00:16:50,865 --> 00:16:53,285
农民的组织力稍微强一些

485
00:16:53,285 --> 00:16:55,565
领主的控制稍微松一些

486
00:16:55,565 --> 00:16:56,665
注意

487
00:16:56,665 --> 00:16:57,905
只是稍微

488
00:16:57,905 --> 00:16:59,865
平时这点差别

489
00:16:59,865 --> 00:17:01,305
几乎看不出来

490
00:17:01,305 --> 00:17:04,845
但当黑死病这个巨大的外力冲击降临时

491
00:17:04,845 --> 00:17:06,365
这些微小的差异

492
00:17:06,365 --> 00:17:08,185
就像裂缝遇到了地震

493
00:17:08,185 --> 00:17:09,405
被急剧放大

494
00:17:09,405 --> 00:17:11,425
变成了不可逆的分场

495
00:17:11,425 --> 00:17:13,525
历史不是宿命

496
00:17:13,525 --> 00:17:14,585
也不是偶然

497
00:17:14,585 --> 00:17:16,465
它是微小的差异

498
00:17:16,465 --> 00:17:18,905
在关键时刻被无限放大

499
00:17:18,905 --> 00:17:21,145
然后不断自我强化

500
00:17:21,145 --> 00:17:24,125
最终变成了我们今天看到的世界

501
00:17:24,125 --> 00:17:26,805
我们自己身上也是类似

502
00:17:26,805 --> 00:17:29,805
我们人生中那些看似微不足道的选择

503
00:17:29,805 --> 00:17:32,025
二十几岁时读的一本书

504
00:17:32,025 --> 00:17:34,745
三十岁时接下的一个项目

505
00:17:34,745 --> 00:17:36,925
某个下午答应参加的一场聚会

506
00:17:36,925 --> 00:17:39,085
在当时完全不起眼

507
00:17:39,085 --> 00:17:41,245
但几十年后回头看

508
00:17:41,245 --> 00:17:44,085
它们可能就是我们人生中的分叉时刻

509
00:17:44,085 --> 00:17:47,345
那个把微小差异无限放大的节点

510
00:17:47,345 --> 00:17:50,245
国家为什么会穷

511
00:17:50,245 --> 00:17:54,605
好 让我们把所有线索收拢

512
00:17:54,605 --> 00:17:56,885
诺加莱斯的铁丝网告诉我们

513
00:17:56,885 --> 00:17:58,965
决定贫富的是制度

514
00:17:58,965 --> 00:18:01,985
鄂图曼帝国和沙皇俄国告诉我们

515
00:18:01,985 --> 00:18:05,145
掌权者不是不懂什么对国家好

516
00:18:05,145 --> 00:18:07,785
而是清醒地选择了对自己好

517
00:18:07,785 --> 00:18:09,125
维尼斯告诉我们

518
00:18:09,125 --> 00:18:11,505
既得利益者会主动封闭

519
00:18:11,505 --> 00:18:13,305
曾经让他们成功的制度

520
00:18:13,305 --> 00:18:16,705
法国革命和非洲独立运动告诉我们

521
00:18:16,705 --> 00:18:18,145
换人没有用

522
00:18:18,145 --> 00:18:19,625
必须换制度

523
00:18:19,625 --> 00:18:21,265
黑死病告诉我们

524
00:18:21,265 --> 00:18:23,545
制度的走向有偶然性

525
00:18:23,545 --> 00:18:25,325
但一旦走上某条路

526
00:18:25,325 --> 00:18:27,205
就会不断自我强化

527
00:18:27,205 --> 00:18:30,605
所有线索指向同一个结论

528
00:18:30,605 --> 00:18:32,285
国家贫穷

529
00:18:32,285 --> 00:18:34,505
从来不是因为人民懒惰

530
00:18:34,505 --> 00:18:36,165
不是因为民族愚蠢

531
00:18:36,165 --> 00:18:37,805
不是因为文化落后

532
00:18:37,805 --> 00:18:40,185
甚至不是因为资源贫瘠

533
00:18:40,185 --> 00:18:43,045
真正决定贫富的是制度

534
00:18:43,045 --> 00:18:45,645
而制度背后是权力

535
00:18:45,645 --> 00:18:48,385
当权力被少数人垄断

536
00:18:48,385 --> 00:18:50,605
制度就变成了榨取的工具

537
00:18:50,605 --> 00:18:51,925
进步被压制

538
00:18:51,925 --> 00:18:53,065
创新被扼杀

539
00:18:53,065 --> 00:18:54,205
财富被集中

540
00:18:54,205 --> 00:18:56,905
这短期内可能看起来很有效率

541
00:18:56,905 --> 00:18:58,745
苏联在1950年代

542
00:18:58,745 --> 00:19:00,925
曾经让整个西方世界恐惧

543
00:19:00,925 --> 00:19:02,785
增长速度快得惊人

544
00:19:02,785 --> 00:19:05,085
但那种繁荣是有保质期的

545
00:19:05,085 --> 00:19:06,745
苏联的高速增长

546
00:19:06,745 --> 00:19:08,465
靠的是用国家暴力

547
00:19:08,465 --> 00:19:11,305
把大量农民从田里赶进工厂

548
00:19:11,305 --> 00:19:13,665
这是一种一次性的资源搬运

549
00:19:13,665 --> 00:19:15,045
效果立竿见影

550
00:19:15,045 --> 00:19:16,505
但搬完就没了

551
00:19:16,505 --> 00:19:19,225
真正能带来持续繁荣的增长

552
00:19:19,225 --> 00:19:21,265
必须靠创造性破坏

553
00:19:21,265 --> 00:19:23,585
允许新东西不断冒出来

554
00:19:23,585 --> 00:19:24,865
替代旧东西

555
00:19:24,865 --> 00:19:28,325
但榨取型制度最做不到的

556
00:19:28,325 --> 00:19:30,745
恰恰就是容忍创造性破坏

557
00:19:30,745 --> 00:19:33,365
因为每一个新生力量的崛起

558
00:19:33,365 --> 00:19:36,225
都可能威胁到现有的当权者

559
00:19:36,225 --> 00:19:38,125
让即将被取代的人

560
00:19:38,125 --> 00:19:39,965
来决定要不要取代自己

561
00:19:39,965 --> 00:19:41,505
答案永远是不

562
00:19:41,505 --> 00:19:44,885
苏联永远生不出苹果公司或台积电

563
00:19:44,885 --> 00:19:46,585
因为乔布斯这种人

564
00:19:46,585 --> 00:19:48,225
本质上是一个搅局者

565
00:19:48,225 --> 00:19:50,985
他出现在一个已有巨头的行业里

566
00:19:50,985 --> 00:19:52,465
用全新的方式

567
00:19:52,465 --> 00:19:54,345
把老巨头打得措手不及

568
00:19:54,345 --> 00:19:56,865
如果有一个中央计划委员会

569
00:19:56,865 --> 00:19:58,745
来决定谁能做电脑

570
00:19:58,745 --> 00:19:59,685
谁不能做

571
00:19:59,685 --> 00:20:02,725
你觉得他们会允许两个年轻人

572
00:20:02,725 --> 00:20:04,805
在车库里挑战IBM吗

573
00:20:04,805 --> 00:20:05,665
不可能

574
00:20:05,665 --> 00:20:09,125
所以没有创造性破坏的经济体

575
00:20:09,125 --> 00:20:11,365
就像燃烧自己的家具来取暖

576
00:20:11,365 --> 00:20:12,505
很暖

577
00:20:12,505 --> 00:20:13,305
很快

578
00:20:13,305 --> 00:20:14,605
火光很耀眼

579
00:20:14,605 --> 00:20:16,865
但烧完就什么都没了

580
00:20:16,865 --> 00:20:18,965
而当权力被约束

581
00:20:18,965 --> 00:20:21,445
当机会向大多数人开放

582
00:20:21,445 --> 00:20:23,165
当创新得到保护

583
00:20:23,165 --> 00:20:25,005
财富能够被创造

584
00:20:25,005 --> 00:20:26,225
而不是被掠夺

585
00:20:26,225 --> 00:20:28,265
国家就能持续繁荣

586
00:20:28,265 --> 00:20:30,885
不是因为出了一个英明的领袖

587
00:20:30,885 --> 00:20:33,305
而是因为制度本身在运转

588
00:20:33,305 --> 00:20:35,765
一个成熟制度的标志

589
00:20:35,765 --> 00:20:37,645
不是出了一个好领袖

590
00:20:37,645 --> 00:20:41,045
而是连坏领袖也坏不到哪里去

591
00:20:41,045 --> 00:20:43,985
因为规则比个人更强

592
00:20:43,985 --> 00:20:46,565
书里有一个精彩的案例

593
00:20:46,565 --> 00:20:48,305
美国总统罗斯福

594
00:20:48,305 --> 00:20:49,885
大萧条时期

595
00:20:49,885 --> 00:20:51,645
力挽狂澜的传奇总统

596
00:20:51,645 --> 00:20:54,085
1930年代推出了新政

597
00:20:54,085 --> 00:20:55,705
全市达到巅峰

598
00:20:55,705 --> 00:20:58,865
但最高法院不断判他的法案违宪

599
00:20:58,865 --> 00:21:00,025
他很恼火

600
00:21:00,025 --> 00:21:02,285
提出要增加法官人数

601
00:21:02,285 --> 00:21:03,865
把自己的人塞进去

602
00:21:03,865 --> 00:21:05,685
这个计划如果成功

603
00:21:05,685 --> 00:21:08,325
总统就能实质控制最高法院

604
00:21:08,325 --> 00:21:10,865
三权分立就名存实亡了

605
00:21:10,865 --> 00:21:12,665
但他没有成功

606
00:21:12,665 --> 00:21:14,125
国会 公众

607
00:21:14,125 --> 00:21:15,625
甚至罗斯福自己

608
00:21:15,625 --> 00:21:17,605
党内的人都站出来反对

609
00:21:17,605 --> 00:21:18,505
他们说

610
00:21:18,505 --> 00:21:20,185
我们支持新政

611
00:21:20,185 --> 00:21:22,465
但我们不能让任何一个人

612
00:21:22,465 --> 00:21:24,005
凌驾于制度之上

613
00:21:24,005 --> 00:21:26,525
哪怕这个人是我们最信任的总统

614
00:21:26,525 --> 00:21:29,325
这就是广纳型制度的力量

615
00:21:29,325 --> 00:21:31,625
连最受爱戴的总统之一

616
00:21:31,625 --> 00:21:32,805
试图越线的时候

617
00:21:32,805 --> 00:21:34,425
都会被制度拉回来

618
00:21:34,425 --> 00:21:37,225
不是因为有某个英雄挺身而出

619
00:21:37,225 --> 00:21:40,485
而是因为规则本身就有这个功能

620
00:21:40,485 --> 00:21:43,765
但这里面藏着一层更深的东西

621
00:21:43,765 --> 00:21:46,285
如果我们仔细审视整条链条

622
00:21:46,285 --> 00:21:47,865
会发现最底层

623
00:21:47,865 --> 00:21:50,085
隐藏着一个关于人性的洞察

624
00:21:50,085 --> 00:21:52,125
人类最大的困境

625
00:21:52,125 --> 00:21:54,025
不是不知道什么是对的

626
00:21:54,025 --> 00:21:56,085
而是在知道什么是对的之后

627
00:21:56,085 --> 00:21:58,145
仍然缺乏去做的勇气

628
00:21:58,145 --> 00:22:00,325
尤其当做对的事

629
00:22:00,325 --> 00:22:03,185
意味着自己会失去某些东西的时候

630
00:22:03,185 --> 00:22:05,745
鄂图曼苏丹知道印刷好

631
00:22:05,745 --> 00:22:06,985
但不敢开放

632
00:22:06,985 --> 00:22:09,105
沙皇知道铁路好

633
00:22:09,105 --> 00:22:10,225
但不敢修

634
00:22:10,225 --> 00:22:13,085
威尼斯贵族知道开放好

635
00:22:13,085 --> 00:22:14,305
但不敢维持

636
00:22:14,305 --> 00:22:16,765
他们都输给了同一样东西

637
00:22:16,765 --> 00:22:18,465
对失去的恐惧

638
00:22:18,465 --> 00:22:21,945
而这不正是我们每个人内心深处

639
00:22:21,945 --> 00:22:23,425
最熟悉的感受吗

640
00:22:23,425 --> 00:22:26,605
这讲的仅是国家吗

641
00:22:26,605 --> 00:22:28,405
这本书的名字叫

642
00:22:28,405 --> 00:22:30,505
《国家为什么会失败》

643
00:22:30,505 --> 00:22:31,985
但读完之后你会发现

644
00:22:31,985 --> 00:22:34,205
它讲的远远不只是国家

645
00:22:34,205 --> 00:22:36,325
它讲的是人性

646
00:22:36,325 --> 00:22:38,305
一家企业会停滞

647
00:22:38,305 --> 00:22:41,145
往往是因为鼓励创新的文化变了

648
00:22:41,145 --> 00:22:43,345
变成了保护既得利益的文化

649
00:22:43,345 --> 00:22:45,505
曾经开放的决策流程

650
00:22:45,505 --> 00:22:47,705
慢慢变成了一个人的独角戏

651
00:22:47,705 --> 00:22:49,965
一个家庭会僵化

652
00:22:49,965 --> 00:22:53,025
往往是因为沟通的规则变了

653
00:22:53,025 --> 00:22:55,665
从双向交流变成了单向命令

654
00:22:55,665 --> 00:22:57,925
从倾听变成了说教

655
00:22:57,925 --> 00:23:00,825
孩子和父母的那条沟通的管道

656
00:23:00,825 --> 00:23:01,985
被堵死了

657
00:23:01,985 --> 00:23:04,485
甚至一个人的人生也是这样

658
00:23:04,485 --> 00:23:06,525
年轻时对什么都好奇

659
00:23:06,525 --> 00:23:07,485
什么都想试

660
00:23:07,485 --> 00:23:08,725
慢慢地

661
00:23:08,725 --> 00:23:10,385
人们积累了一些成就

662
00:23:10,385 --> 00:23:12,005
也积累了一些恐惧

663
00:23:12,005 --> 00:23:14,185
人们开始害怕失去

664
00:23:14,185 --> 00:23:15,865
已经拥有的东西

665
00:23:15,865 --> 00:23:17,305
于是不知不觉的

666
00:23:17,305 --> 00:23:18,725
人们把梯子抽掉

667
00:23:18,725 --> 00:23:19,685
把门关上

668
00:23:19,685 --> 00:23:21,505
把自己封在一个安全

669
00:23:21,505 --> 00:23:23,365
但越来越小的世界里

670
00:23:23,365 --> 00:23:26,445
这本书用500年的历史

671
00:23:26,445 --> 00:23:27,705
五大洲的证据

672
00:23:27,705 --> 00:23:29,285
最终指向了一个

673
00:23:29,285 --> 00:23:31,445
对我们每个人都适用的结论

674
00:23:31,445 --> 00:23:33,005
决定命运的

675
00:23:33,005 --> 00:23:34,765
是我们有没有一套

676
00:23:34,765 --> 00:23:37,145
持续自我更新的内在规则

677
00:23:37,145 --> 00:23:39,025
1485年

678
00:23:39,025 --> 00:23:40,805
鄂图曼帝国禁止印刷

679
00:23:40,805 --> 00:23:43,345
他们以为自己保护的是权力

680
00:23:43,345 --> 00:23:44,485
后来才发现

681
00:23:44,485 --> 00:23:46,525
他们失去的是未来

682
00:23:46,525 --> 00:23:49,065
历史一次又一次证明

683
00:23:49,065 --> 00:23:51,025
一个国家最危险的

684
00:23:51,025 --> 00:23:52,665
从来不是贫穷

685
00:23:52,665 --> 00:23:54,085
不是资源不足

686
00:23:54,085 --> 00:23:56,185
甚至不是缺少人才

687
00:23:56,185 --> 00:23:58,285
而是掌握权力的人

688
00:23:58,285 --> 00:23:59,965
开始害怕改变

689
00:23:59,965 --> 00:24:01,185
因为

690
00:24:01,185 --> 00:24:03,325
所有失败国家的背后

691
00:24:03,325 --> 00:24:05,445
几乎都站着同一群人

692
00:24:05,445 --> 00:24:07,625
不愿被改变的既得利益者

693
00:24:07,625 --> 00:24:10,405
而所有繁荣国家的背后

694
00:24:10,405 --> 00:24:12,305
也都藏着同一个秘密

695
00:24:12,305 --> 00:24:14,425
让权力受到约束

696
00:24:14,425 --> 00:24:17,025
让机会向多数人开放

697
00:24:17,025 --> 00:24:20,865
这就是国家为什么会失败的答案

698
00:24:20,865 --> 00:24:22,465
国家如此

699
00:24:22,465 --> 00:24:23,585
企业如此

700
00:24:23,585 --> 00:24:24,625
家庭如此

701
00:24:24,625 --> 00:24:25,885
人也是如此

702
00:24:25,885 --> 00:24:28,825
感谢观看天天读书会

703
00:24:28,825 --> 00:24:30,345
我们下期见