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大家好,我是魔王,在两家摩根JP Morgan以及摩根Stanley的买方工作30年,我姓王,这是魔王想两下,在市场中开解现象,我们找到趋势。

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这次我想探讨的主题是关于日本年金转向的问题,我计划用两集。

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第一集我们来探讨一下日元有大概1.8兆美元的在外投资的资金回流,

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那这个对于日本国债的重沽

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还有日元的防线

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它是怎么交互影响的

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第二题呢我想谈一下

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就私募基金

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它的僵尸基金的僵局

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对于日本

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它这个资金转向呢

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它有什么影响

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那我们来拆解一下

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我想今天这一集呢

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第一个部分我想谈一下

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就是说为什么我会谈这个

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追踪这一条呢

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这个基本上就是政府

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以日本为首

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它开始用老本了

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因为最近有一条消息引起了我的注意

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就是Bloomberg还有WashJournal同时有公开报道

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日本的财务大臣片山

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他在近期有公开的表示

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日本政府正在严宁相关的措施

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他要鼓励包含这个GPIF

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就是日本的政府年金投资基金

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在内的公共的年金

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就是等于说政府主导的这个大资金

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要将资金呢

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把它进一步投向

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日本本土的金融资产

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那随后呢

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主管GPIF的后生劳动省

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因为资金属于后生劳动省来主管的

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后生劳动省的大臣上野贤一郎

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他也公开呼应

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证实说在必要的时候呢

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我们会检讨以及修订GPIF的

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他的投资组合

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那这个讯号一出呢

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你就知道我为什么会关注这个

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我们一直在讲说要跟着大前走

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那这些就是最大的大钱

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那这个讯号出来之后市场就比较震撼

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也会比较大的关注

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原因呢就是因为日本的GPIF

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是全球最大的主权的退休基金之一

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就是年金的这个管理

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那它管理的资产大概有多少呢

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大概是不到300兆日元

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就293兆日元

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相当于1.8兆美元

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那这个资金很庞大嘛

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那过去30年呢

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这个庞大的资金呢

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它有大量的资金是配置在海外

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那成为全世界全球金融市场

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很重要的一个资金的流动性的提供者

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那如今它如果是转向回流本土

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当然我觉得它不会全部

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但是它一旦这个方向转了

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它开始营造这个趋势的时候

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所以为什么市场会很关注

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那我自己也很关注这个题目

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所以应该会对全球的资本市场

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会引发一些连锁的反应

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所以这是为什么这政策出来呢

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对我来讲我就关心这个题目

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那这个题目呢

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除了我们在讲大钱本身

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它的吸引力之外

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还有它的引导作用

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还有一个更深层

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而且我觉得是有点很危险的讯号

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就是说看起来这些政府要动老本

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他自己他要发展

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他要发展大建设

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可是自己的钱不够了

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所以他要用老本的钱

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我们来看一下日本

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日本最近其实老实讲

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他的经济呢是有点麻烦的

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包含他的通货膨胀

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因为它已经日本通缩很多年了

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几十年

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那现在通货膨胀复苏

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而且日元呢

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也节节的贬值

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它现在已经逼近了40年的低点

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还有日本的央行BOJ

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它基本上BOJ也退场

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导致国债的发行的压力呢

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很大

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所以现在看起来

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它在财政预算呢

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也是着金见着

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而且各类的资源呢

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都已经差不多挪用的差不多了

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因为这几十年

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日本消失了30年吧

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这个已经

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让他的资源已经几乎耗光

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那日本政府呢怎么办呢

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那日本还是有家底的

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所以如果大家有兴趣可以看

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我就是我之前有做过日本系列

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就是在高手早苗上任之后

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我有去拆解一下

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有去重新爬梳了一下

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日本的这个资本市场

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还有他的经济环境的一个状况

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那日本他现在是有一些问题

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有一些困难

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那筹码不够了嘛

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好那怎么办呢

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他就把脑筋动到了

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国民最后的吃老本的账户

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就是年金还有加户储蓄上面

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那这个是一个

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我认为这是一个重要的讯号

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因为日本政府

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这是一个全球最保守

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也比较讲究它的制度规范的

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一个官僚体系

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它都开始主动打破了这个

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所谓我们一直信奉的资本

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自由市场的默契

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它强行引导庞大的本土的年金

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还有加户的资本

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来帮它政府护盘

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可以看到现在当前

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全世界的政府

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尤其是富裕国家

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我们传统观念里面的富裕国家

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欧美这些富裕国家

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它其实不富裕了

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它已经是普遍的高负债

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再加上地缘政治撕裂的这个环境

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所以我们看到其他的发达国家

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和新兴政府市场

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看到日本这一招能够抗拒诱惑吗

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所以可能会想说有为者当弱势

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那我也跟着干吧

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所以我觉得这个讯号

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是我觉得要注意的

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所以从日本开始

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会不会诱发全球的资本回家的大戏

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这个是需要追踪的

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今天的第二个部分

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我来看一些数据

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就是现在全世界

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大概有68兆美元的

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这个年金的规模

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那我们来看

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整个大搬家是怎么样的状况

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这个第一个部分

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我们来看一下

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全球它68兆美元年金

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它也产生了一些regime shift

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就是范式转移

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那我们看到最新的一个统计

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它做2026年的

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全球年金的资产研究

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这是WTW最近的一个发表的报告

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它这个报告其实一直持续都每年都有

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它持续追踪全球22个国家

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Top22的国家叫做P22

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它的资产的规模现在大概

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你管理年金的规模大概是68.3兆美元

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我另外也找了一些其他的报告

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像OECD

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OECD它有一份报告是2025年的Pension Market in Focus

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因为他们也是持续追踪

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所以我就会看这些报告

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还有哪些新的讯息出来

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那OECD的报告

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它指出全球退休金的资产

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在经历了2022年

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有些疫情之后的剧烈的修正之后

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现在它也都膨胀

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因为股市都在涨

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但是它的主要的关键不是说它变大

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而是它现在大家都比较烦恼

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说我要怎么配

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所以我们看到这些报告有提出

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过去几十年

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全球的年金采取的就是传统的

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这个资产配置的模型

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SAA

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Strategic Asset Allocation

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那就是把资产呢

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它切割成像股啊

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债啊

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还有海外资产等不同的类别

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那日本的GPIF

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就是一个典型的代表

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那它

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你可以看到它也

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你可以说它很僵化

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也可以说它很纪律性

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那它常年就是维持了

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国内的股票25%

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海外的股票25%

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日本的国内的债券25%

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海外的债券25%

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这个是四分法

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所以你可以看他也很自视的一直维持这样

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那这个平衡呢

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其实现在要改变

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那我们看到在高利率

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还有地缘政治常态化的今天

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全球大型的年金

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他正在在做一些调整

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我们刚刚前面提到他

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传统上面P22这几个国家

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他的年金是采取的是SAA

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就是战略资产配置的方式

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但现在他开始调整

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调整成叫做Total Portfolio Approach

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当然这是一些名词

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就是整体组合法

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但讲白了就是说

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把这个传统的这个模式

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要做一些改变

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而且这样的改变

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更明显的展现出

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很强的本土偏好

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就是更多的资金

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更多的资源

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它要挪回到它的本土

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因为大家都

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更多的强调安全性

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然后建制本身

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效率已经不是最重要

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所以就做了这一条

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所以资金的安排

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甚至老百姓的年金退收金

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都被这样子的

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等于说这样子操弄吧

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这样子的挪移

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那另外呢

243
00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:09,460
我们再看这些数据的

244
00:08:09,460 --> 00:08:10,320
第二个部分呢

245
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:11,080
我来看一下

246
00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:13,200
日本我觉得他就是一个替代干

247
00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:14,760
他现在有300兆日元

248
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,440
他现在引导要回来

249
00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,320
我们来看为什么日本财务大臣和劳动省大臣

250
00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,480
他会在近期连续的

251
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,760
他们上台是很有默契的

252
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,880
放出说检讨GPIF的资产配置

253
00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:29,960
而且是鼓励增加本土资产

254
00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:31,260
我们来看一组数据

255
00:08:31,260 --> 00:08:33,040
日本的财务省

256
00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:37,160
他表达希望GPIF增持国内的资产之后

257
00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,320
市场也迅速的做出反应

258
00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,680
这里面包含日元对美元短线

259
00:08:41,680 --> 00:08:46,160
从162.38就升到161.57

260
00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,560
那另外日本的国债的殖利率也下降

261
00:08:49,560 --> 00:08:52,680
十年期的日本的JGB它也下降

262
00:08:52,680 --> 00:08:55,720
下降11个basis point到2.77

263
00:08:55,720 --> 00:09:00,180
那40年期日本有40年期长端的国债的殖利率

264
00:09:00,180 --> 00:09:03,600
更大幅的下降到3.95%

265
00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,640
日经指数225指数它上涨了1.4

266
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:08,800
虽然这些是短期的数字

267
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,400
但是我们可以看到他做了

268
00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:11,700
这有一些反应

269
00:09:11,700 --> 00:09:13,880
因为这样做的目的性是什么呢

270
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:15,220
因为日本的央行呢

271
00:09:15,220 --> 00:09:18,500
他作用大概一兆美元左右的外汇存底

272
00:09:18,500 --> 00:09:21,100
如果每一次日元跌破163

273
00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:22,740
他的干预的防线的时候

274
00:09:22,740 --> 00:09:25,920
他就会直接抛售美元外汇存底

275
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:27,540
来进行汇市的干预

276
00:09:27,540 --> 00:09:29,380
那这个呢就是很消耗

277
00:09:29,380 --> 00:09:31,240
但是如果透过政策的引导

278
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:32,680
让GPIF他现在

279
00:09:32,680 --> 00:09:34,560
他这个规模是有1.8兆美元

280
00:09:34,560 --> 00:09:37,160
还有日本加户庞大的储蓄

281
00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:38,780
都可以留在日本国内

282
00:09:38,780 --> 00:09:40,840
那就形成了一个本土的

283
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,540
很坚实的一个互盘的机制

284
00:09:43,540 --> 00:09:46,180
所以它这个是有它这个目的性

285
00:09:46,180 --> 00:09:48,640
再看数据的第三个

286
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,080
我们来看日本它还有

287
00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:51,440
除了GBIF之外

288
00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:52,840
GBIF是日本政府

289
00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,000
它来管理的这个年金

290
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:56,640
它另外还有第二个

291
00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,560
就是日本国内

292
00:09:59,560 --> 00:10:01,740
它的个人投资免税的账户

293
00:10:01,740 --> 00:10:02,780
叫NISA

294
00:10:02,780 --> 00:10:04,940
那它现在日本政府

295
00:10:04,940 --> 00:10:06,860
它这个脑筋还动到免税账户上

296
00:10:06,860 --> 00:10:09,200
根据它官方的数据呢

297
00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:10,920
截至2025年底

298
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,860
日本的NISA的账户突破了2800万户

299
00:10:14,860 --> 00:10:17,540
资产规模达到71兆日元

300
00:10:17,540 --> 00:10:18,500
所以也很庞大

301
00:10:18,500 --> 00:10:21,040
但是这里面过去它的制度呢

302
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:22,320
有一个困难之处

303
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:26,040
就是日本的散户拿到了免税额度之后

304
00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:27,160
绝大多数呢

305
00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:28,840
它都是买S&P500

306
00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,660
或者是全球的股票基金

307
00:10:30,660 --> 00:10:32,200
那这形成了说

308
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,080
你这个部分是免税的嘛

309
00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:35,360
日本政府给你免税

310
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,200
可是散户的钱呢

311
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:38,380
他是把这个资本

312
00:10:38,380 --> 00:10:40,320
就是这个NISA的账户

313
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:41,260
他去投海外

314
00:10:41,260 --> 00:10:42,880
尤其大部分是到美国去

315
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:44,460
所以这是为什么他觉得

316
00:10:44,460 --> 00:10:45,900
有点矛盾的地方

317
00:10:45,900 --> 00:10:47,640
同时日本的家户呢

318
00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:49,380
持有JGB的比例呢

319
00:10:49,380 --> 00:10:51,840
就是日本国债的比率低于2%

320
00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,040
相比之下

321
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:53,940
美国散户

322
00:10:53,940 --> 00:10:56,260
他持有美债的比例是9%

323
00:10:56,260 --> 00:10:57,600
其实很可以理解啦

324
00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:59,220
因为日本你这么低的利率

325
00:10:59,220 --> 00:11:01,080
我放在你这个公债上面

326
00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:02,080
不是很傻吗

327
00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,580
那所以我把钱放到海外去

328
00:11:04,580 --> 00:11:05,640
也比较合理

329
00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,060
我即使买美国国债

330
00:11:07,060 --> 00:11:08,680
也比收益也比你

331
00:11:08,680 --> 00:11:09,840
这个日本国债要高

332
00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:11,940
所以这个长期都形成

333
00:11:11,940 --> 00:11:13,460
这样的一个做法

334
00:11:13,460 --> 00:11:15,520
这个是非常合理的安排

335
00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:17,600
那现在也因为这样

336
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:18,320
所以日本

337
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:19,860
因为它要吸收资源

338
00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:20,680
它资源不够

339
00:11:20,680 --> 00:11:22,820
所以它要脑筋动到

340
00:11:22,820 --> 00:11:24,500
日本个人的账户上面

341
00:11:24,500 --> 00:11:25,360
所以财务省

342
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:26,920
它现在在做什么事情

343
00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:27,980
它全力推动

344
00:11:27,980 --> 00:11:31,500
把JGB纳入了NISA的免税范围

345
00:11:31,500 --> 00:11:33,060
就是你投资日本的国债

346
00:11:33,060 --> 00:11:34,540
我也让你免税

347
00:11:34,540 --> 00:11:36,540
这也是配合高市扫描政府

348
00:11:36,540 --> 00:11:37,380
他的目标

349
00:11:37,380 --> 00:11:39,320
希望在2040年之前

350
00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,040
将加户金融资产中的股票

351
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,920
基金和债券的比例

352
00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,720
有23%提升到40%

353
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:48,060
就是让他更多的

354
00:11:48,060 --> 00:11:49,500
这个日本人手上的钱

355
00:11:49,500 --> 00:11:51,060
可以为尽到

356
00:11:51,060 --> 00:11:52,660
还是留在日本国内

357
00:11:52,660 --> 00:11:53,840
所以日本政府呢

358
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:54,640
其实讲白了

359
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,680
他就是推动把民间散户的

360
00:11:57,680 --> 00:12:00,820
这些老百姓的荷包里面的钱

361
00:12:00,820 --> 00:12:01,800
账户里面的钱

362
00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,040
以及国家的主权债务

363
00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:05,060
他强行绑定

364
00:12:05,060 --> 00:12:05,900
换句话说

365
00:12:05,900 --> 00:12:07,160
老百姓的储蓄呢

366
00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,580
他面对未不保的政府官僚

367
00:12:09,580 --> 00:12:11,180
因为他开的支票越来越多

368
00:12:11,180 --> 00:12:12,560
那怎么办呢

369
00:12:12,560 --> 00:12:13,620
他没有钱了

370
00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:15,220
所以就来动老百姓的钱

371
00:12:15,220 --> 00:12:16,640
就等于是在收拾

372
00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,340
不但收拾过去几十年的烂摊子

373
00:12:19,340 --> 00:12:20,200
另外呢

374
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:21,280
他还要面对政府

375
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,700
他现在在搞的AI军备竞赛

376
00:12:23,700 --> 00:12:26,120
其实我自己在写这个研究报告

377
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:27,060
写到这里的时候

378
00:12:27,060 --> 00:12:28,360
我就想到我

379
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,280
很多年前我看

380
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:32,760
大陆拍的那个走向共和

381
00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:34,300
那个电视剧

382
00:12:34,300 --> 00:12:35,300
它里面有一段

383
00:12:35,300 --> 00:12:36,460
就是在讲到

384
00:12:36,460 --> 00:12:38,120
它包含日本明治维新

385
00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:38,980
还有之后

386
00:12:38,980 --> 00:12:41,040
它到要打二战

387
00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:42,720
日本要打二战的时候

388
00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:43,760
当时的军政府

389
00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:45,460
其实日本也是资源有限

390
00:12:45,460 --> 00:12:47,560
它也是征用很多民间的资源

391
00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:48,680
甚至老百姓

392
00:12:48,680 --> 00:12:50,420
其实穷的都没饭吃

393
00:12:50,420 --> 00:12:51,440
都把家里面的

394
00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:52,420
等于说卖锅卖铁

395
00:12:52,420 --> 00:12:54,000
所以他就请进老百姓

396
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:54,980
所有的资源

397
00:12:54,980 --> 00:12:56,380
他为了去打这一战

398
00:12:56,380 --> 00:12:58,140
所以我自己写到这边

399
00:12:58,140 --> 00:12:58,740
我就觉得

400
00:12:58,740 --> 00:13:00,360
我还是觉得政府

401
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,680
其实是必须要做克制

402
00:13:02,680 --> 00:13:04,180
你不能让政府

403
00:13:04,180 --> 00:13:06,260
政府变成一个胃不保的巨兽

404
00:13:06,260 --> 00:13:08,120
它一直在吸收资源

405
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,180
日本现在就有点往这个方向去

406
00:13:11,180 --> 00:13:12,020
今天在讲

407
00:13:12,020 --> 00:13:13,880
我们看数据的第三点

408
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:14,680
我们来看

409
00:13:14,680 --> 00:13:15,580
我们一直在讲

410
00:13:15,580 --> 00:13:16,880
日本有一个carry trade

411
00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:18,700
就是日元的套利交易

412
00:13:18,700 --> 00:13:19,580
所以我们来看

413
00:13:19,580 --> 00:13:21,100
它在做这件事情

414
00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:22,820
日本政府在做这件事情的时候

415
00:13:22,820 --> 00:13:24,880
它动用它的年金GPIF

416
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:25,960
还有要把它的

417
00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:27,540
日本的加户资金回流

418
00:13:27,540 --> 00:13:29,040
对国际投资人来讲

419
00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:30,540
我们要怎么看这件事情

420
00:13:30,540 --> 00:13:32,280
所以这是我今天要谈的

421
00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,220
第三点就是Carrie Trade

422
00:13:34,220 --> 00:13:38,180
Carrie Trade它现在看起来是有要动摇了

423
00:13:38,180 --> 00:13:39,060
甚至要瓦解

424
00:13:39,060 --> 00:13:42,040
因为日本的套利交易就是Japan Yen

425
00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,700
Carrie Trade它的结构性已经开始转折

426
00:13:44,700 --> 00:13:46,560
因为过去长达数十年

427
00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:49,920
全世界最受欢迎的交易之一就是借日元

428
00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:51,660
然后投海外的资产

429
00:13:51,660 --> 00:13:54,160
因为海外资产利息比较高

430
00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:55,080
收益比较高

431
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:58,140
可是日元是利息成本非常的低

432
00:13:58,140 --> 00:14:00,420
甚至有一段时间它是负利率

433
00:14:00,420 --> 00:14:02,320
但是我们看当GPIF

434
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,640
它减少海外资产的投资

435
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,060
而且日本的散户

436
00:14:06,060 --> 00:14:07,500
它也透过NISA

437
00:14:07,500 --> 00:14:09,640
回流到它日本的国债的时候

438
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,660
日元在结构上的卖压

439
00:14:11,660 --> 00:14:13,260
就会稍微消停一些

440
00:14:13,260 --> 00:14:16,240
那靠日元单向贬值来躺赚的

441
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,660
Carrie Trade的时代就走向终结

442
00:14:18,660 --> 00:14:20,340
那我们对投资人来讲

443
00:14:20,340 --> 00:14:21,680
我们要注意什么呢

444
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,000
就是第一个我们还是要注意

445
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:24,880
外汇避险的这个成本

446
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:26,320
现在这个情况之下

447
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,820
海外的低值利率的债券的

448
00:14:28,820 --> 00:14:31,640
它的实质收益已经转为负向

449
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:33,300
等于说日本的它的动向

450
00:14:33,300 --> 00:14:35,260
对我们确实是有一些影响

451
00:14:35,260 --> 00:14:37,260
对于我们一般的投资人来讲

452
00:14:37,260 --> 00:14:37,920
你要审

453
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:39,040
我们可能审视一下

454
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:40,940
我们手上的全球型的股票

455
00:14:40,940 --> 00:14:42,340
还有美股的ETF

456
00:14:42,340 --> 00:14:44,480
如果我们不做外汇避险的话

457
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,540
未来可能会面临说赚了股价

458
00:14:47,540 --> 00:14:49,140
会赔了日元

459
00:14:49,140 --> 00:14:50,620
所以这个要注意一下

460
00:14:50,620 --> 00:14:51,660
今天这一集呢

461
00:14:51,660 --> 00:14:52,800
我们谈到的是

462
00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:54,320
日本政府动用了

463
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,060
日本的吃老本的账户

464
00:14:56,060 --> 00:14:57,420
来为国家的经济

465
00:14:57,420 --> 00:14:59,120
还有它的债务来背书

466
00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,680
那公开市场的日元和国债

467
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,440
其实我们看到的只是第一个层面

468
00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,420
那下一期呢我想要来谈一下

469
00:15:06,420 --> 00:15:07,340
其实这个是

470
00:15:07,340 --> 00:15:09,920
我觉得是更深一层的思考

471
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,060
就是因为日本它现在也要允许

472
00:15:12,060 --> 00:15:13,300
它的GPIF

473
00:15:13,300 --> 00:15:16,160
投资日本本土的私募基金

474
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:17,300
那这个私募基金

475
00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:19,100
其实不只是日本的GPIF

476
00:15:19,100 --> 00:15:20,640
就是它的退休基金

477
00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:22,720
被允许去投私募基金

478
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,960
其实全球市场也在往这样发展

479
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,260
那这样发展有哪些好处

480
00:15:27,260 --> 00:15:29,160
还有哪些潜在的风险呢

481
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:30,560
所以我想要来探讨一下

482
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:31,560
我是魔王

483
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:32,960
频道命名魔王想两下

484
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,260
提醒自己多想一层

485
00:15:34,260 --> 00:15:35,680
直面恐惧与贪婪

486
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:37,580
如果你喜欢这样的分析方式

487
00:15:37,580 --> 00:15:38,660
对于今天的题目

488
00:15:38,660 --> 00:15:40,100
我们欢迎你留言分享

489
00:15:40,100 --> 00:15:40,840
你的看法

490
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:41,620
我们下次再见