{ "text": "大家好,我是魔王,在两家摩根JP Morgan以及摩根Stanley的买方工作30年,我姓王,这是魔王想两下,在市场中开解现象,我们找到趋势。\n这次我想探讨的主题是关于日本年金转向的问题,我计划用两集。\n第一集我们来探讨一下日元有大概1.8兆美元的在外投资的资金回流,\n那这个对于日本国债的重沽\n还有日元的防线\n它是怎么交互影响的\n第二题呢我想谈一下\n就私募基金\n它的僵尸基金的僵局\n对于日本\n它这个资金转向呢\n它有什么影响\n那我们来拆解一下\n我想今天这一集呢\n第一个部分我想谈一下\n就是说为什么我会谈这个\n追踪这一条呢\n这个基本上就是政府\n以日本为首\n它开始用老本了\n因为最近有一条消息引起了我的注意\n就是Bloomberg还有WashJournal同时有公开报道\n日本的财务大臣片山\n他在近期有公开的表示\n日本政府正在严宁相关的措施\n他要鼓励包含这个GPIF\n就是日本的政府年金投资基金\n在内的公共的年金\n就是等于说政府主导的这个大资金\n要将资金呢\n把它进一步投向\n日本本土的金融资产\n那随后呢\n主管GPIF的后生劳动省\n因为资金属于后生劳动省来主管的\n后生劳动省的大臣上野贤一郎\n他也公开呼应\n证实说在必要的时候呢\n我们会检讨以及修订GPIF的\n他的投资组合\n那这个讯号一出呢\n你就知道我为什么会关注这个\n我们一直在讲说要跟着大前走\n那这些就是最大的大钱\n那这个讯号出来之后市场就比较震撼\n也会比较大的关注\n原因呢就是因为日本的GPIF\n是全球最大的主权的退休基金之一\n就是年金的这个管理\n那它管理的资产大概有多少呢\n大概是不到300兆日元\n就293兆日元\n相当于1.8兆美元\n那这个资金很庞大嘛\n那过去30年呢\n这个庞大的资金呢\n它有大量的资金是配置在海外\n那成为全世界全球金融市场\n很重要的一个资金的流动性的提供者\n那如今它如果是转向回流本土\n当然我觉得它不会全部\n但是它一旦这个方向转了\n它开始营造这个趋势的时候\n所以为什么市场会很关注\n那我自己也很关注这个题目\n所以应该会对全球的资本市场\n会引发一些连锁的反应\n所以这是为什么这政策出来呢\n对我来讲我就关心这个题目\n那这个题目呢\n除了我们在讲大钱本身\n它的吸引力之外\n还有它的引导作用\n还有一个更深层\n而且我觉得是有点很危险的讯号\n就是说看起来这些政府要动老本\n他自己他要发展\n他要发展大建设\n可是自己的钱不够了\n所以他要用老本的钱\n我们来看一下日本\n日本最近其实老实讲\n他的经济呢是有点麻烦的\n包含他的通货膨胀\n因为它已经日本通缩很多年了\n几十年\n那现在通货膨胀复苏\n而且日元呢\n也节节的贬值\n它现在已经逼近了40年的低点\n还有日本的央行BOJ\n它基本上BOJ也退场\n导致国债的发行的压力呢\n很大\n所以现在看起来\n它在财政预算呢\n也是着金见着\n而且各类的资源呢\n都已经差不多挪用的差不多了\n因为这几十年\n日本消失了30年吧\n这个已经\n让他的资源已经几乎耗光\n那日本政府呢怎么办呢\n那日本还是有家底的\n所以如果大家有兴趣可以看\n我就是我之前有做过日本系列\n就是在高手早苗上任之后\n我有去拆解一下\n有去重新爬梳了一下\n日本的这个资本市场\n还有他的经济环境的一个状况\n那日本他现在是有一些问题\n有一些困难\n那筹码不够了嘛\n好那怎么办呢\n他就把脑筋动到了\n国民最后的吃老本的账户\n就是年金还有加户储蓄上面\n那这个是一个\n我认为这是一个重要的讯号\n因为日本政府\n这是一个全球最保守\n也比较讲究它的制度规范的\n一个官僚体系\n它都开始主动打破了这个\n所谓我们一直信奉的资本\n自由市场的默契\n它强行引导庞大的本土的年金\n还有加户的资本\n来帮它政府护盘\n可以看到现在当前\n全世界的政府\n尤其是富裕国家\n我们传统观念里面的富裕国家\n欧美这些富裕国家\n它其实不富裕了\n它已经是普遍的高负债\n再加上地缘政治撕裂的这个环境\n所以我们看到其他的发达国家\n和新兴政府市场\n看到日本这一招能够抗拒诱惑吗\n所以可能会想说有为者当弱势\n那我也跟着干吧\n所以我觉得这个讯号\n是我觉得要注意的\n所以从日本开始\n会不会诱发全球的资本回家的大戏\n这个是需要追踪的\n今天的第二个部分\n我来看一些数据\n就是现在全世界\n大概有68兆美元的\n这个年金的规模\n那我们来看\n整个大搬家是怎么样的状况\n这个第一个部分\n我们来看一下\n全球它68兆美元年金\n它也产生了一些regime shift\n就是范式转移\n那我们看到最新的一个统计\n它做2026年的\n全球年金的资产研究\n这是WTW最近的一个发表的报告\n它这个报告其实一直持续都每年都有\n它持续追踪全球22个国家\nTop22的国家叫做P22\n它的资产的规模现在大概\n你管理年金的规模大概是68.3兆美元\n我另外也找了一些其他的报告\n像OECD\nOECD它有一份报告是2025年的Pension Market in Focus\n因为他们也是持续追踪\n所以我就会看这些报告\n还有哪些新的讯息出来\n那OECD的报告\n它指出全球退休金的资产\n在经历了2022年\n有些疫情之后的剧烈的修正之后\n现在它也都膨胀\n因为股市都在涨\n但是它的主要的关键不是说它变大\n而是它现在大家都比较烦恼\n说我要怎么配\n所以我们看到这些报告有提出\n过去几十年\n全球的年金采取的就是传统的\n这个资产配置的模型\nSAA\nStrategic Asset Allocation\n那就是把资产呢\n它切割成像股啊\n债啊\n还有海外资产等不同的类别\n那日本的GPIF\n就是一个典型的代表\n那它\n你可以看到它也\n你可以说它很僵化\n也可以说它很纪律性\n那它常年就是维持了\n国内的股票25%\n海外的股票25%\n日本的国内的债券25%\n海外的债券25%\n这个是四分法\n所以你可以看他也很自视的一直维持这样\n那这个平衡呢\n其实现在要改变\n那我们看到在高利率\n还有地缘政治常态化的今天\n全球大型的年金\n他正在在做一些调整\n我们刚刚前面提到他\n传统上面P22这几个国家\n他的年金是采取的是SAA\n就是战略资产配置的方式\n但现在他开始调整\n调整成叫做Total Portfolio Approach\n当然这是一些名词\n就是整体组合法\n但讲白了就是说\n把这个传统的这个模式\n要做一些改变\n而且这样的改变\n更明显的展现出\n很强的本土偏好\n就是更多的资金\n更多的资源\n它要挪回到它的本土\n因为大家都\n更多的强调安全性\n然后建制本身\n效率已经不是最重要\n所以就做了这一条\n所以资金的安排\n甚至老百姓的年金退收金\n都被这样子的\n等于说这样子操弄吧\n这样子的挪移\n那另外呢\n我们再看这些数据的\n第二个部分呢\n我来看一下\n日本我觉得他就是一个替代干\n他现在有300兆日元\n他现在引导要回来\n我们来看为什么日本财务大臣和劳动省大臣\n他会在近期连续的\n他们上台是很有默契的\n放出说检讨GPIF的资产配置\n而且是鼓励增加本土资产\n我们来看一组数据\n日本的财务省\n他表达希望GPIF增持国内的资产之后\n市场也迅速的做出反应\n这里面包含日元对美元短线\n从162.38就升到161.57\n那另外日本的国债的殖利率也下降\n十年期的日本的JGB它也下降\n下降11个basis point到2.77\n那40年期日本有40年期长端的国债的殖利率\n更大幅的下降到3.95%\n日经指数225指数它上涨了1.4\n虽然这些是短期的数字\n但是我们可以看到他做了\n这有一些反应\n因为这样做的目的性是什么呢\n因为日本的央行呢\n他作用大概一兆美元左右的外汇存底\n如果每一次日元跌破163\n他的干预的防线的时候\n他就会直接抛售美元外汇存底\n来进行汇市的干预\n那这个呢就是很消耗\n但是如果透过政策的引导\n让GPIF他现在\n他这个规模是有1.8兆美元\n还有日本加户庞大的储蓄\n都可以留在日本国内\n那就形成了一个本土的\n很坚实的一个互盘的机制\n所以它这个是有它这个目的性\n再看数据的第三个\n我们来看日本它还有\n除了GBIF之外\nGBIF是日本政府\n它来管理的这个年金\n它另外还有第二个\n就是日本国内\n它的个人投资免税的账户\n叫NISA\n那它现在日本政府\n它这个脑筋还动到免税账户上\n根据它官方的数据呢\n截至2025年底\n日本的NISA的账户突破了2800万户\n资产规模达到71兆日元\n所以也很庞大\n但是这里面过去它的制度呢\n有一个困难之处\n就是日本的散户拿到了免税额度之后\n绝大多数呢\n它都是买S&P500\n或者是全球的股票基金\n那这形成了说\n你这个部分是免税的嘛\n日本政府给你免税\n可是散户的钱呢\n他是把这个资本\n就是这个NISA的账户\n他去投海外\n尤其大部分是到美国去\n所以这是为什么他觉得\n有点矛盾的地方\n同时日本的家户呢\n持有JGB的比例呢\n就是日本国债的比率低于2%\n相比之下\n美国散户\n他持有美债的比例是9%\n其实很可以理解啦\n因为日本你这么低的利率\n我放在你这个公债上面\n不是很傻吗\n那所以我把钱放到海外去\n也比较合理\n我即使买美国国债\n也比收益也比你\n这个日本国债要高\n所以这个长期都形成\n这样的一个做法\n这个是非常合理的安排\n那现在也因为这样\n所以日本\n因为它要吸收资源\n它资源不够\n所以它要脑筋动到\n日本个人的账户上面\n所以财务省\n它现在在做什么事情\n它全力推动\n把JGB纳入了NISA的免税范围\n就是你投资日本的国债\n我也让你免税\n这也是配合高市扫描政府\n他的目标\n希望在2040年之前\n将加户金融资产中的股票\n基金和债券的比例\n有23%提升到40%\n就是让他更多的\n这个日本人手上的钱\n可以为尽到\n还是留在日本国内\n所以日本政府呢\n其实讲白了\n他就是推动把民间散户的\n这些老百姓的荷包里面的钱\n账户里面的钱\n以及国家的主权债务\n他强行绑定\n换句话说\n老百姓的储蓄呢\n他面对未不保的政府官僚\n因为他开的支票越来越多\n那怎么办呢\n他没有钱了\n所以就来动老百姓的钱\n就等于是在收拾\n不但收拾过去几十年的烂摊子\n另外呢\n他还要面对政府\n他现在在搞的AI军备竞赛\n其实我自己在写这个研究报告\n写到这里的时候\n我就想到我\n很多年前我看\n大陆拍的那个走向共和\n那个电视剧\n它里面有一段\n就是在讲到\n它包含日本明治维新\n还有之后\n它到要打二战\n日本要打二战的时候\n当时的军政府\n其实日本也是资源有限\n它也是征用很多民间的资源\n甚至老百姓\n其实穷的都没饭吃\n都把家里面的\n等于说卖锅卖铁\n所以他就请进老百姓\n所有的资源\n他为了去打这一战\n所以我自己写到这边\n我就觉得\n我还是觉得政府\n其实是必须要做克制\n你不能让政府\n政府变成一个胃不保的巨兽\n它一直在吸收资源\n日本现在就有点往这个方向去\n今天在讲\n我们看数据的第三点\n我们来看\n我们一直在讲\n日本有一个carry trade\n就是日元的套利交易\n所以我们来看\n它在做这件事情\n日本政府在做这件事情的时候\n它动用它的年金GPIF\n还有要把它的\n日本的加户资金回流\n对国际投资人来讲\n我们要怎么看这件事情\n所以这是我今天要谈的\n第三点就是Carrie Trade\nCarrie Trade它现在看起来是有要动摇了\n甚至要瓦解\n因为日本的套利交易就是Japan Yen\nCarrie Trade它的结构性已经开始转折\n因为过去长达数十年\n全世界最受欢迎的交易之一就是借日元\n然后投海外的资产\n因为海外资产利息比较高\n收益比较高\n可是日元是利息成本非常的低\n甚至有一段时间它是负利率\n但是我们看当GPIF\n它减少海外资产的投资\n而且日本的散户\n它也透过NISA\n回流到它日本的国债的时候\n日元在结构上的卖压\n就会稍微消停一些\n那靠日元单向贬值来躺赚的\nCarrie Trade的时代就走向终结\n那我们对投资人来讲\n我们要注意什么呢\n就是第一个我们还是要注意\n外汇避险的这个成本\n现在这个情况之下\n海外的低值利率的债券的\n它的实质收益已经转为负向\n等于说日本的它的动向\n对我们确实是有一些影响\n对于我们一般的投资人来讲\n你要审\n我们可能审视一下\n我们手上的全球型的股票\n还有美股的ETF\n如果我们不做外汇避险的话\n未来可能会面临说赚了股价\n会赔了日元\n所以这个要注意一下\n今天这一集呢\n我们谈到的是\n日本政府动用了\n日本的吃老本的账户\n来为国家的经济\n还有它的债务来背书\n那公开市场的日元和国债\n其实我们看到的只是第一个层面\n那下一期呢我想要来谈一下\n其实这个是\n我觉得是更深一层的思考\n就是因为日本它现在也要允许\n它的GPIF\n投资日本本土的私募基金\n那这个私募基金\n其实不只是日本的GPIF\n就是它的退休基金\n被允许去投私募基金\n其实全球市场也在往这样发展\n那这样发展有哪些好处\n还有哪些潜在的风险呢\n所以我想要来探讨一下\n我是魔王\n频道命名魔王想两下\n提醒自己多想一层\n直面恐惧与贪婪\n如果你喜欢这样的分析方式\n对于今天的题目\n我们欢迎你留言分享\n你的看法\n我们下次再见", "language": null, "duration": 944.21625, "segments": [ { "start": 0.94, "end": 10.02, "text": "大家好,我是魔王,在两家摩根JP Morgan以及摩根Stanley的买方工作30年,我姓王,这是魔王想两下,在市场中开解现象,我们找到趋势。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12652791830209587, "no_speech_prob": 2.3917008998286526e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1818181818181819 }, { "start": 10.6, "end": 16.48, "text": "这次我想探讨的主题是关于日本年金转向的问题,我计划用两集。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12652791830209587, "no_speech_prob": 2.3917008998286526e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1818181818181819 }, { "start": 17.16, "end": 25.78, "text": "第一集我们来探讨一下日元有大概1.8兆美元的在外投资的资金回流,", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12652791830209587, "no_speech_prob": 2.3917008998286526e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.1818181818181819 }, { "start": 25.78, "end": 28.56, "text": "那这个对于日本国债的重沽", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 28.56, "end": 29.74, "text": "还有日元的防线", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 29.74, "end": 31.68, "text": "它是怎么交互影响的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 31.68, "end": 33.38, "text": "第二题呢我想谈一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 33.38, "end": 34.26, "text": "就私募基金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 34.26, "end": 36.04, "text": "它的僵尸基金的僵局", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 36.04, "end": 37.48, "text": "对于日本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 37.48, "end": 39.34, "text": "它这个资金转向呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 39.34, "end": 40.46, "text": "它有什么影响", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 40.46, "end": 41.86, "text": "那我们来拆解一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 41.86, "end": 44.44, "text": "我想今天这一集呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 44.44, "end": 45.62, "text": "第一个部分我想谈一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 45.62, "end": 48.04, "text": "就是说为什么我会谈这个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 48.04, "end": 49.66, "text": "追踪这一条呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 49.66, "end": 52.26, "text": "这个基本上就是政府", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 52.26, "end": 53.08, "text": "以日本为首", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 53.08, "end": 54.44, "text": "它开始用老本了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12109653205628608, "no_speech_prob": 1.4336612626231204e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4888059701492538 }, { "start": 54.44, "end": 57.36, "text": "因为最近有一条消息引起了我的注意", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 57.36, "end": 60.92, "text": "就是Bloomberg还有WashJournal同时有公开报道", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 60.92, "end": 63.42, "text": "日本的财务大臣片山", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 63.42, "end": 65.52, "text": "他在近期有公开的表示", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 65.52, "end": 69.3, "text": "日本政府正在严宁相关的措施", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 69.3, "end": 72.5, "text": "他要鼓励包含这个GPIF", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 72.5, "end": 75.34, "text": "就是日本的政府年金投资基金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 75.34, "end": 77.42, "text": "在内的公共的年金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 77.42, "end": 80.1, "text": "就是等于说政府主导的这个大资金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12866337115948018, "no_speech_prob": 2.0540817310954473e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.237918215613383 }, { "start": 80.1, "end": 81.82, "text": "要将资金呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 81.82, "end": 83.76, "text": "把它进一步投向", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 83.76, "end": 85.5, "text": "日本本土的金融资产", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 85.5, "end": 86.38, "text": "那随后呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 86.38, "end": 89.22, "text": "主管GPIF的后生劳动省", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 89.22, "end": 92.2, "text": "因为资金属于后生劳动省来主管的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 92.2, "end": 94.9, "text": "后生劳动省的大臣上野贤一郎", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 94.9, "end": 96.24, "text": "他也公开呼应", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 96.24, "end": 98.1, "text": "证实说在必要的时候呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 98.1, "end": 101.36, "text": "我们会检讨以及修订GPIF的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 101.36, "end": 102.46, "text": "他的投资组合", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 102.46, "end": 104.38, "text": "那这个讯号一出呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 104.38, "end": 106.4, "text": "你就知道我为什么会关注这个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 106.4, "end": 108.6, "text": "我们一直在讲说要跟着大前走", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08832495393808822, "no_speech_prob": 1.4069899759161508e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794326241134751 }, { "start": 108.6, "end": 110.58, "text": "那这些就是最大的大钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 110.58, "end": 113.9, "text": "那这个讯号出来之后市场就比较震撼", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 113.9, "end": 115.6, "text": "也会比较大的关注", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 115.6, "end": 118.98, "text": "原因呢就是因为日本的GPIF", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 118.98, "end": 123.54, "text": "是全球最大的主权的退休基金之一", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 123.54, "end": 125.84, "text": "就是年金的这个管理", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 125.84, "end": 128.2, "text": "那它管理的资产大概有多少呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 128.2, "end": 130.26, "text": "大概是不到300兆日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 130.26, "end": 131.84, "text": "就293兆日元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 131.84, "end": 133.94, "text": "相当于1.8兆美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 133.94, "end": 135.76, "text": "那这个资金很庞大嘛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 135.76, "end": 137.54, "text": "那过去30年呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09050921599070232, "no_speech_prob": 1.2463080914515423e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3460076045627376 }, { "start": 137.54, "end": 138.82, "text": "这个庞大的资金呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 138.82, "end": 140.86, "text": "它有大量的资金是配置在海外", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 140.86, "end": 143.28, "text": "那成为全世界全球金融市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 143.28, "end": 146.62, "text": "很重要的一个资金的流动性的提供者", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 146.62, "end": 149.42, "text": "那如今它如果是转向回流本土", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 149.42, "end": 151.12, "text": "当然我觉得它不会全部", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 151.12, "end": 153.32, "text": "但是它一旦这个方向转了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 153.32, "end": 155.62, "text": "它开始营造这个趋势的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 155.62, "end": 158.26, "text": "所以为什么市场会很关注", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 158.26, "end": 160.22, "text": "那我自己也很关注这个题目", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 160.22, "end": 162.48, "text": "所以应该会对全球的资本市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 162.48, "end": 164.5, "text": "会引发一些连锁的反应", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 164.5, "end": 167.32, "text": "所以这是为什么这政策出来呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06600264825764493, "no_speech_prob": 2.0383590648709315e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4620253164556962 }, { "start": 167.32, "end": 169.78, "text": "对我来讲我就关心这个题目", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 169.78, "end": 170.58, "text": "那这个题目呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 170.58, "end": 172.44, "text": "除了我们在讲大钱本身", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 172.44, "end": 173.68, "text": "它的吸引力之外", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 173.68, "end": 175.3, "text": "还有它的引导作用", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 175.3, "end": 176.7, "text": "还有一个更深层", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 176.7, "end": 179.42, "text": "而且我觉得是有点很危险的讯号", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 179.42, "end": 182.74, "text": "就是说看起来这些政府要动老本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 182.74, "end": 184.44, "text": "他自己他要发展", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 184.44, "end": 186.2, "text": "他要发展大建设", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 186.2, "end": 187.58, "text": "可是自己的钱不够了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 187.58, "end": 189.04, "text": "所以他要用老本的钱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 189.04, "end": 190.1, "text": "我们来看一下日本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 190.1, "end": 191.68, "text": "日本最近其实老实讲", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 191.68, "end": 193.66, "text": "他的经济呢是有点麻烦的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 193.66, "end": 195.44, "text": "包含他的通货膨胀", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0866966825543028, "no_speech_prob": 2.2922719278284376e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4551495016611296 }, { "start": 195.44, "end": 197.46, "text": "因为它已经日本通缩很多年了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 197.46, "end": 198.04, "text": "几十年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 198.04, "end": 199.6, "text": "那现在通货膨胀复苏", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 199.6, "end": 200.94, "text": "而且日元呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 200.94, "end": 202.78, "text": "也节节的贬值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 202.78, "end": 205.34, "text": "它现在已经逼近了40年的低点", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 205.34, "end": 206.98, "text": "还有日本的央行BOJ", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 206.98, "end": 208.68, "text": "它基本上BOJ也退场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 208.68, "end": 210.92, "text": "导致国债的发行的压力呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 210.92, "end": 211.68, "text": "很大", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 211.68, "end": 212.98, "text": "所以现在看起来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 212.98, "end": 214.38, "text": "它在财政预算呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 214.38, "end": 215.62, "text": "也是着金见着", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 215.62, "end": 217.48, "text": "而且各类的资源呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 217.48, "end": 219.64, "text": "都已经差不多挪用的差不多了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 219.64, "end": 220.64, "text": "因为这几十年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 220.64, "end": 223.02, "text": "日本消失了30年吧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 223.02, "end": 224.32, "text": "这个已经", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11109582767930141, "no_speech_prob": 1.624980185133129e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3771043771043772 }, { "start": 224.32, "end": 226.36, "text": "让他的资源已经几乎耗光", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 226.36, "end": 228.54, "text": "那日本政府呢怎么办呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 228.54, "end": 229.92, "text": "那日本还是有家底的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 229.92, "end": 231.7, "text": "所以如果大家有兴趣可以看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 231.7, "end": 234.14, "text": "我就是我之前有做过日本系列", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 234.14, "end": 236.2, "text": "就是在高手早苗上任之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 236.2, "end": 237.58, "text": "我有去拆解一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 237.58, "end": 240.0, "text": "有去重新爬梳了一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 240.0, "end": 241.6, "text": "日本的这个资本市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 241.6, "end": 244.04, "text": "还有他的经济环境的一个状况", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 244.04, "end": 246.9, "text": "那日本他现在是有一些问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 246.9, "end": 247.9, "text": "有一些困难", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 247.9, "end": 249.28, "text": "那筹码不够了嘛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 249.28, "end": 250.16, "text": "好那怎么办呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 250.16, "end": 251.64, "text": "他就把脑筋动到了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 251.64, "end": 253.74, "text": "国民最后的吃老本的账户", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1039709991283631, "no_speech_prob": 2.426956725865015e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4711538461538463 }, { "start": 253.74, "end": 256.5, "text": "就是年金还有加户储蓄上面", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 256.5, "end": 257.6, "text": "那这个是一个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 257.6, "end": 259.32, "text": "我认为这是一个重要的讯号", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 259.32, "end": 260.48, "text": "因为日本政府", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 260.48, "end": 262.36, "text": "这是一个全球最保守", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 262.36, "end": 265.14, "text": "也比较讲究它的制度规范的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 265.14, "end": 266.22, "text": "一个官僚体系", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 266.22, "end": 268.9, "text": "它都开始主动打破了这个", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 268.9, "end": 271.44, "text": "所谓我们一直信奉的资本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 271.44, "end": 273.12, "text": "自由市场的默契", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 273.12, "end": 276.42, "text": "它强行引导庞大的本土的年金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 276.42, "end": 277.66, "text": "还有加户的资本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 277.66, "end": 279.18, "text": "来帮它政府护盘", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 279.18, "end": 280.98, "text": "可以看到现在当前", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 280.98, "end": 282.0, "text": "全世界的政府", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 282.0, "end": 283.18, "text": "尤其是富裕国家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07569845423978917, "no_speech_prob": 1.6372587313684406e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.390728476821192 }, { "start": 283.18, "end": 285.38, "text": "我们传统观念里面的富裕国家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 285.38, "end": 286.7, "text": "欧美这些富裕国家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 286.7, "end": 287.88, "text": "它其实不富裕了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 287.88, "end": 290.16, "text": "它已经是普遍的高负债", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 290.16, "end": 293.62, "text": "再加上地缘政治撕裂的这个环境", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 293.62, "end": 296.02, "text": "所以我们看到其他的发达国家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 296.02, "end": 297.98, "text": "和新兴政府市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 297.98, "end": 300.74, "text": "看到日本这一招能够抗拒诱惑吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 300.74, "end": 303.22, "text": "所以可能会想说有为者当弱势", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 303.22, "end": 304.52, "text": "那我也跟着干吧", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 304.52, "end": 305.94, "text": "所以我觉得这个讯号", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 305.94, "end": 308.02, "text": "是我觉得要注意的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 308.02, "end": 309.5, "text": "所以从日本开始", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 309.5, "end": 312.74, "text": "会不会诱发全球的资本回家的大戏", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07468294555490668, "no_speech_prob": 1.4291207973970987e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.403225806451613 }, { "start": 312.74, "end": 314.28, "text": "这个是需要追踪的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 314.28, "end": 315.4, "text": "今天的第二个部分", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 315.4, "end": 316.84, "text": "我来看一些数据", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 316.84, "end": 319.3, "text": "就是现在全世界", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 319.3, "end": 321.34, "text": "大概有68兆美元的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 321.34, "end": 323.1, "text": "这个年金的规模", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 323.1, "end": 324.6, "text": "那我们来看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 324.6, "end": 327.7, "text": "整个大搬家是怎么样的状况", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 327.7, "end": 328.5, "text": "这个第一个部分", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 328.5, "end": 329.2, "text": "我们来看一下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 329.2, "end": 331.66, "text": "全球它68兆美元年金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 331.66, "end": 333.9, "text": "它也产生了一些regime shift", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 333.9, "end": 335.36, "text": "就是范式转移", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 335.36, "end": 338.74, "text": "那我们看到最新的一个统计", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 338.74, "end": 340.32, "text": "它做2026年的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 340.32, "end": 342.16, "text": "全球年金的资产研究", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09013691463985958, "no_speech_prob": 1.3515738875313765e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3523131672597866 }, { "start": 342.16, "end": 345.04, "text": "这是WTW最近的一个发表的报告", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 345.04, "end": 348.12, "text": "它这个报告其实一直持续都每年都有", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 348.12, "end": 351.34, "text": "它持续追踪全球22个国家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 351.34, "end": 354.4, "text": "Top22的国家叫做P22", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 354.4, "end": 356.8, "text": "它的资产的规模现在大概", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 356.8, "end": 361.22, "text": "你管理年金的规模大概是68.3兆美元", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 361.22, "end": 363.44, "text": "我另外也找了一些其他的报告", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 363.44, "end": 364.32, "text": "像OECD", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 364.32, "end": 368.96, "text": "OECD它有一份报告是2025年的Pension Market in Focus", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 368.96, "end": 370.64, "text": "因为他们也是持续追踪", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10384732267282305, "no_speech_prob": 1.45663394540696e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2369337979094077 }, { "start": 370.64, "end": 372.24, "text": "所以我就会看这些报告", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 372.24, "end": 374.02, "text": "还有哪些新的讯息出来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 374.02, "end": 375.28, "text": "那OECD的报告", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 375.28, "end": 377.72, "text": "它指出全球退休金的资产", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 377.72, "end": 379.34, "text": "在经历了2022年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 379.34, "end": 381.84, "text": "有些疫情之后的剧烈的修正之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 381.84, "end": 383.76, "text": "现在它也都膨胀", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 383.76, "end": 385.1, "text": "因为股市都在涨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 385.1, "end": 387.92, "text": "但是它的主要的关键不是说它变大", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 387.92, "end": 389.66, "text": "而是它现在大家都比较烦恼", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 389.66, "end": 390.7, "text": "说我要怎么配", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 390.7, "end": 392.76, "text": "所以我们看到这些报告有提出", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 392.76, "end": 393.96, "text": "过去几十年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 393.96, "end": 396.62, "text": "全球的年金采取的就是传统的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 396.62, "end": 398.36, "text": "这个资产配置的模型", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08071784551631021, "no_speech_prob": 1.4801274789144614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.346875 }, { "start": 398.36, "end": 399.06, "text": "SAA", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 399.06, "end": 401.02, "text": "Strategic Asset Allocation", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 401.02, "end": 402.74, "text": "那就是把资产呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 402.74, "end": 404.6, "text": "它切割成像股啊", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 404.6, "end": 405.38, "text": "债啊", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 405.38, "end": 407.88, "text": "还有海外资产等不同的类别", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 407.88, "end": 409.64, "text": "那日本的GPIF", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 409.64, "end": 411.34, "text": "就是一个典型的代表", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 411.34, "end": 411.8, "text": "那它", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 411.8, "end": 413.0, "text": "你可以看到它也", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 413.0, "end": 414.34, "text": "你可以说它很僵化", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 414.34, "end": 416.0, "text": "也可以说它很纪律性", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 416.0, "end": 418.14, "text": "那它常年就是维持了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 418.14, "end": 420.38, "text": "国内的股票25%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 420.38, "end": 422.22, "text": "海外的股票25%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 422.22, "end": 424.56, "text": "日本的国内的债券25%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 424.56, "end": 426.72, "text": "海外的债券25%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 426.72, "end": 427.76, "text": "这个是四分法", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16533403511506967, "no_speech_prob": 1.1041877481798856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313868613138686 }, { "start": 427.76, "end": 430.52, "text": "所以你可以看他也很自视的一直维持这样", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 430.52, "end": 431.76, "text": "那这个平衡呢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 431.76, "end": 432.88, "text": "其实现在要改变", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 432.88, "end": 434.48, "text": "那我们看到在高利率", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 434.48, "end": 436.82, "text": "还有地缘政治常态化的今天", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 436.82, "end": 438.84, "text": "全球大型的年金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 438.84, "end": 441.2, "text": "他正在在做一些调整", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 441.2, "end": 442.8, "text": "我们刚刚前面提到他", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 442.8, "end": 445.44, "text": "传统上面P22这几个国家", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 445.44, "end": 448.78, "text": "他的年金是采取的是SAA", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 448.78, "end": 451.08, "text": "就是战略资产配置的方式", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 451.08, "end": 453.08, "text": "但现在他开始调整", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 453.08, "end": 456.78, "text": "调整成叫做Total Portfolio Approach", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09057964374816496, "no_speech_prob": 1.3953098225438776e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.213166144200627 }, { "start": 456.78, "end": 457.92, "text": "当然这是一些名词", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 457.92, "end": 459.4, "text": "就是整体组合法", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 459.4, "end": 460.58, "text": "但讲白了就是说", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 460.58, "end": 461.94, "text": "把这个传统的这个模式", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 461.94, "end": 462.84, "text": "要做一些改变", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 462.84, "end": 464.18, "text": "而且这样的改变", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 464.18, "end": 466.22, "text": "更明显的展现出", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 466.22, "end": 467.7, "text": "很强的本土偏好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 467.7, "end": 469.02, "text": "就是更多的资金", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 469.02, "end": 470.02, "text": "更多的资源", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 470.02, "end": 471.74, "text": "它要挪回到它的本土", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 471.74, "end": 472.52, "text": "因为大家都", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 472.52, "end": 475.06, "text": "更多的强调安全性", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 475.06, "end": 476.84, "text": "然后建制本身", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 476.84, "end": 478.42, "text": "效率已经不是最重要", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 478.42, "end": 479.6, "text": "所以就做了这一条", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09174348938633019, "no_speech_prob": 2.838702883867228e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 480.0, "end": 480.74, "text": "所以资金的安排", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 480.74, "end": 483.36, "text": "甚至老百姓的年金退收金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 483.36, "end": 484.76, "text": "都被这样子的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 484.76, "end": 486.04, "text": "等于说这样子操弄吧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 486.04, "end": 487.32, "text": "这样子的挪移", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 487.32, "end": 488.28, "text": "那另外呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 488.28, "end": 489.46, "text": "我们再看这些数据的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 489.46, "end": 490.32, "text": "第二个部分呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 490.32, "end": 491.08, "text": "我来看一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 491.08, "end": 493.2, "text": "日本我觉得他就是一个替代干", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 493.2, "end": 494.76, "text": "他现在有300兆日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11469997829861112, "no_speech_prob": 2.468364228291886e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4024767801857585 }, { "start": 494.76, "end": 496.44, "text": "他现在引导要回来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 496.44, "end": 500.32, "text": "我们来看为什么日本财务大臣和劳动省大臣", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 500.32, "end": 502.48, "text": "他会在近期连续的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 502.48, "end": 504.76, "text": "他们上台是很有默契的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 504.76, "end": 507.88, "text": "放出说检讨GPIF的资产配置", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 507.88, "end": 509.96, "text": "而且是鼓励增加本土资产", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 509.96, "end": 511.26, "text": "我们来看一组数据", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 511.26, "end": 513.04, "text": "日本的财务省", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 513.04, "end": 517.16, "text": "他表达希望GPIF增持国内的资产之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 517.16, "end": 519.32, "text": "市场也迅速的做出反应", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 519.32, "end": 521.68, "text": "这里面包含日元对美元短线", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0943018729428211, "no_speech_prob": 1.467793768472614e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.289855072463768 }, { "start": 521.68, "end": 526.16, "text": "从162.38就升到161.57", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 526.16, "end": 529.56, "text": "那另外日本的国债的殖利率也下降", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 529.56, "end": 532.68, "text": "十年期的日本的JGB它也下降", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 532.68, "end": 535.72, "text": "下降11个basis point到2.77", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 535.72, "end": 540.18, "text": "那40年期日本有40年期长端的国债的殖利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 540.18, "end": 543.6, "text": "更大幅的下降到3.95%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 543.6, "end": 546.64, "text": "日经指数225指数它上涨了1.4", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 546.64, "end": 548.8, "text": "虽然这些是短期的数字", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11345518097396969, "no_speech_prob": 9.821348595506763e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.2378854625550662 }, { "start": 548.8, "end": 550.4, "text": "但是我们可以看到他做了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 550.4, "end": 551.7, "text": "这有一些反应", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 551.7, "end": 553.88, "text": "因为这样做的目的性是什么呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 553.88, "end": 555.22, "text": "因为日本的央行呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 555.22, "end": 558.5, "text": "他作用大概一兆美元左右的外汇存底", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 558.5, "end": 561.1, "text": "如果每一次日元跌破163", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 561.1, "end": 562.74, "text": "他的干预的防线的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 562.74, "end": 565.92, "text": "他就会直接抛售美元外汇存底", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 565.92, "end": 567.54, "text": "来进行汇市的干预", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 567.54, "end": 569.38, "text": "那这个呢就是很消耗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 569.38, "end": 571.24, "text": "但是如果透过政策的引导", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 571.24, "end": 572.68, "text": "让GPIF他现在", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 572.68, "end": 574.56, "text": "他这个规模是有1.8兆美元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 574.56, "end": 577.16, "text": "还有日本加户庞大的储蓄", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10783031029615574, "no_speech_prob": 1.311300980993968e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3427672955974843 }, { "start": 577.16, "end": 578.78, "text": "都可以留在日本国内", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 578.78, "end": 580.84, "text": "那就形成了一个本土的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 580.84, "end": 583.54, "text": "很坚实的一个互盘的机制", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 583.54, "end": 586.18, "text": "所以它这个是有它这个目的性", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 586.18, "end": 588.64, "text": "再看数据的第三个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 588.64, "end": 590.08, "text": "我们来看日本它还有", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 590.08, "end": 591.44, "text": "除了GBIF之外", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 591.44, "end": 592.84, "text": "GBIF是日本政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 592.84, "end": 595.0, "text": "它来管理的这个年金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 595.0, "end": 596.64, "text": "它另外还有第二个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 596.64, "end": 599.56, "text": "就是日本国内", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 599.56, "end": 601.74, "text": "它的个人投资免税的账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 601.74, "end": 602.78, "text": "叫NISA", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 602.78, "end": 604.94, "text": "那它现在日本政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 604.94, "end": 606.86, "text": "它这个脑筋还动到免税账户上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10514810350206164, "no_speech_prob": 1.2908204886918906e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4386617100371748 }, { "start": 606.86, "end": 609.2, "text": "根据它官方的数据呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 609.2, "end": 610.92, "text": "截至2025年底", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 610.92, "end": 614.86, "text": "日本的NISA的账户突破了2800万户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 614.86, "end": 617.54, "text": "资产规模达到71兆日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 617.54, "end": 618.5, "text": "所以也很庞大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 618.5, "end": 621.04, "text": "但是这里面过去它的制度呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 621.04, "end": 622.32, "text": "有一个困难之处", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 622.32, "end": 626.04, "text": "就是日本的散户拿到了免税额度之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 626.04, "end": 627.16, "text": "绝大多数呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 627.16, "end": 628.84, "text": "它都是买S&P500", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 628.84, "end": 630.66, "text": "或者是全球的股票基金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 630.66, "end": 632.2, "text": "那这形成了说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 632.2, "end": 634.08, "text": "你这个部分是免税的嘛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 634.08, "end": 635.36, "text": "日本政府给你免税", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09286843813382663, "no_speech_prob": 1.2441877389468559e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2366666666666666 }, { "start": 635.36, "end": 637.2, "text": "可是散户的钱呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 637.2, "end": 638.38, "text": "他是把这个资本", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 638.38, "end": 640.32, "text": "就是这个NISA的账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 640.32, "end": 641.26, "text": "他去投海外", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 641.26, "end": 642.88, "text": "尤其大部分是到美国去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 642.88, "end": 644.46, "text": "所以这是为什么他觉得", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 644.46, "end": 645.9, "text": "有点矛盾的地方", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 645.9, "end": 647.64, "text": "同时日本的家户呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 647.64, "end": 649.38, "text": "持有JGB的比例呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 649.38, "end": 651.84, "text": "就是日本国债的比率低于2%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 651.84, "end": 653.04, "text": "相比之下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 653.04, "end": 653.94, "text": "美国散户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 653.94, "end": 656.26, "text": "他持有美债的比例是9%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 656.26, "end": 657.6, "text": "其实很可以理解啦", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 657.6, "end": 659.22, "text": "因为日本你这么低的利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 659.22, "end": 661.08, "text": "我放在你这个公债上面", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 661.08, "end": 662.08, "text": "不是很傻吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 662.08, "end": 664.58, "text": "那所以我把钱放到海外去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09426167590469964, "no_speech_prob": 1.1892661334889087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3858520900321543 }, { "start": 664.58, "end": 665.64, "text": "也比较合理", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 665.64, "end": 667.06, "text": "我即使买美国国债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 667.06, "end": 668.68, "text": "也比收益也比你", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 668.68, "end": 669.84, "text": "这个日本国债要高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 669.84, "end": 671.94, "text": "所以这个长期都形成", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 671.94, "end": 673.46, "text": "这样的一个做法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 673.46, "end": 675.52, "text": "这个是非常合理的安排", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 675.52, "end": 677.6, "text": "那现在也因为这样", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 677.6, "end": 678.32, "text": "所以日本", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 678.32, "end": 679.86, "text": "因为它要吸收资源", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 679.86, "end": 680.68, "text": "它资源不够", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 680.68, "end": 682.82, "text": "所以它要脑筋动到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 682.82, "end": 684.5, "text": "日本个人的账户上面", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 684.5, "end": 685.36, "text": "所以财务省", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 685.36, "end": 686.92, "text": "它现在在做什么事情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 686.92, "end": 687.98, "text": "它全力推动", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 687.98, "end": 691.5, "text": "把JGB纳入了NISA的免税范围", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 691.5, "end": 693.06, "text": "就是你投资日本的国债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 693.06, "end": 694.54, "text": "我也让你免税", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09087439205335535, "no_speech_prob": 1.6318736292819658e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4092409240924093 }, { "start": 694.54, "end": 696.54, "text": "这也是配合高市扫描政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 696.54, "end": 697.38, "text": "他的目标", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 697.38, "end": 699.32, "text": "希望在2040年之前", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 699.32, "end": 702.04, "text": "将加户金融资产中的股票", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 702.04, "end": 703.92, "text": "基金和债券的比例", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 703.92, "end": 706.72, "text": "有23%提升到40%", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 706.72, "end": 708.06, "text": "就是让他更多的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 708.06, "end": 709.5, "text": "这个日本人手上的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 709.5, "end": 711.06, "text": "可以为尽到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 711.06, "end": 712.66, "text": "还是留在日本国内", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 712.66, "end": 713.84, "text": "所以日本政府呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 713.84, "end": 714.64, "text": "其实讲白了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 714.64, "end": 717.68, "text": "他就是推动把民间散户的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 717.68, "end": 720.82, "text": "这些老百姓的荷包里面的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 720.82, "end": 721.8, "text": "账户里面的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 721.8, "end": 724.04, "text": "以及国家的主权债务", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10044377108654344, "no_speech_prob": 1.221993513322861e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.297945205479452 }, { "start": 724.04, "end": 725.06, "text": "他强行绑定", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 725.06, "end": 725.9, "text": "换句话说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 725.9, "end": 727.16, "text": "老百姓的储蓄呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 727.16, "end": 729.58, "text": "他面对未不保的政府官僚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 729.58, "end": 731.18, "text": "因为他开的支票越来越多", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 731.18, "end": 732.56, "text": "那怎么办呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 732.56, "end": 733.62, "text": "他没有钱了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 733.62, "end": 735.22, "text": "所以就来动老百姓的钱", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 735.22, "end": 736.64, "text": "就等于是在收拾", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 736.64, "end": 739.34, "text": "不但收拾过去几十年的烂摊子", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 739.34, "end": 740.2, "text": "另外呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 740.2, "end": 741.28, "text": "他还要面对政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 741.28, "end": 743.7, "text": "他现在在搞的AI军备竞赛", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 743.7, "end": 746.12, "text": "其实我自己在写这个研究报告", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 746.12, "end": 747.06, "text": "写到这里的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 747.06, "end": 748.36, "text": "我就想到我", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 748.36, "end": 750.28, "text": "很多年前我看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 750.28, "end": 752.76, "text": "大陆拍的那个走向共和", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0749917189280192, "no_speech_prob": 1.8180602856521233e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3259493670886076 }, { "start": 752.76, "end": 754.3, "text": "那个电视剧", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 754.3, "end": 755.3, "text": "它里面有一段", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 755.3, "end": 756.46, "text": "就是在讲到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 756.46, "end": 758.12, "text": "它包含日本明治维新", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 758.12, "end": 758.98, "text": "还有之后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 758.98, "end": 761.04, "text": "它到要打二战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 761.04, "end": 762.72, "text": "日本要打二战的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 762.72, "end": 763.76, "text": "当时的军政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 763.76, "end": 765.46, "text": "其实日本也是资源有限", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 765.46, "end": 767.56, "text": "它也是征用很多民间的资源", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 767.56, "end": 768.68, "text": "甚至老百姓", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 768.68, "end": 770.42, "text": "其实穷的都没饭吃", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 770.42, "end": 771.44, "text": "都把家里面的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 771.44, "end": 772.42, "text": "等于说卖锅卖铁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 772.42, "end": 774.0, "text": "所以他就请进老百姓", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 774.0, "end": 774.98, "text": "所有的资源", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 774.98, "end": 776.38, "text": "他为了去打这一战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 776.38, "end": 778.14, "text": "所以我自己写到这边", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 778.14, "end": 778.74, "text": "我就觉得", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 778.74, "end": 780.36, "text": "我还是觉得政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 780.36, "end": 782.68, "text": "其实是必须要做克制", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09247977608128598, "no_speech_prob": 2.4491252775815653e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4466019417475728 }, { "start": 782.68, "end": 784.18, "text": "你不能让政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 784.18, "end": 786.26, "text": "政府变成一个胃不保的巨兽", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 786.26, "end": 788.12, "text": "它一直在吸收资源", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 788.12, "end": 791.18, "text": "日本现在就有点往这个方向去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 791.18, "end": 792.02, "text": "今天在讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 792.02, "end": 793.88, "text": "我们看数据的第三点", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 793.88, "end": 794.68, "text": "我们来看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 794.68, "end": 795.58, "text": "我们一直在讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 795.58, "end": 796.88, "text": "日本有一个carry trade", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 796.88, "end": 798.7, "text": "就是日元的套利交易", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 798.7, "end": 799.58, "text": "所以我们来看", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 799.58, "end": 801.1, "text": "它在做这件事情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 801.1, "end": 802.82, "text": "日本政府在做这件事情的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 802.82, "end": 804.88, "text": "它动用它的年金GPIF", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 804.88, "end": 805.96, "text": "还有要把它的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 805.96, "end": 807.54, "text": "日本的加户资金回流", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 807.54, "end": 809.04, "text": "对国际投资人来讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 809.04, "end": 810.54, "text": "我们要怎么看这件事情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 810.54, "end": 812.28, "text": "所以这是我今天要谈的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09837950107663176, "no_speech_prob": 3.345666105269984e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.471875 }, { "start": 812.28, "end": 814.22, "text": "第三点就是Carrie Trade", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 814.22, "end": 818.18, "text": "Carrie Trade它现在看起来是有要动摇了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 818.18, "end": 819.06, "text": "甚至要瓦解", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 819.06, "end": 822.04, "text": "因为日本的套利交易就是Japan Yen", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 822.04, "end": 824.7, "text": "Carrie Trade它的结构性已经开始转折", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 824.7, "end": 826.56, "text": "因为过去长达数十年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 826.56, "end": 829.92, "text": "全世界最受欢迎的交易之一就是借日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 829.92, "end": 831.66, "text": "然后投海外的资产", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 831.66, "end": 834.16, "text": "因为海外资产利息比较高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 834.16, "end": 835.08, "text": "收益比较高", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 835.08, "end": 838.14, "text": "可是日元是利息成本非常的低", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 838.14, "end": 840.42, "text": "甚至有一段时间它是负利率", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10728423400495038, "no_speech_prob": 1.6961579710206287e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.318032786885246 }, { "start": 840.42, "end": 842.32, "text": "但是我们看当GPIF", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 842.32, "end": 844.64, "text": "它减少海外资产的投资", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 844.64, "end": 846.06, "text": "而且日本的散户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 846.06, "end": 847.5, "text": "它也透过NISA", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 847.5, "end": 849.64, "text": "回流到它日本的国债的时候", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 849.64, "end": 851.66, "text": "日元在结构上的卖压", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 851.66, "end": 853.26, "text": "就会稍微消停一些", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 853.26, "end": 856.24, "text": "那靠日元单向贬值来躺赚的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 856.24, "end": 858.66, "text": "Carrie Trade的时代就走向终结", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 858.66, "end": 860.34, "text": "那我们对投资人来讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 860.34, "end": 861.68, "text": "我们要注意什么呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 861.68, "end": 863.0, "text": "就是第一个我们还是要注意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 863.0, "end": 864.88, "text": "外汇避险的这个成本", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 864.88, "end": 866.32, "text": "现在这个情况之下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 866.32, "end": 868.82, "text": "海外的低值利率的债券的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11273520333426339, "no_speech_prob": 1.22207842803701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3052959501557633 }, { "start": 868.82, "end": 871.64, "text": "它的实质收益已经转为负向", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 871.64, "end": 873.3, "text": "等于说日本的它的动向", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 873.3, "end": 875.26, "text": "对我们确实是有一些影响", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 875.26, "end": 877.26, "text": "对于我们一般的投资人来讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 877.26, "end": 877.92, "text": "你要审", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 877.92, "end": 879.04, "text": "我们可能审视一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 879.04, "end": 880.94, "text": "我们手上的全球型的股票", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 880.94, "end": 882.34, "text": "还有美股的ETF", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 882.34, "end": 884.48, "text": "如果我们不做外汇避险的话", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 884.48, "end": 887.54, "text": "未来可能会面临说赚了股价", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 887.54, "end": 889.14, "text": "会赔了日元", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 889.14, "end": 890.62, "text": "所以这个要注意一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 890.62, "end": 891.66, "text": "今天这一集呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 891.66, "end": 892.8, "text": "我们谈到的是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 892.8, "end": 894.32, "text": "日本政府动用了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 894.32, "end": 896.06, "text": "日本的吃老本的账户", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 896.06, "end": 897.42, "text": "来为国家的经济", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0755802985676174, "no_speech_prob": 1.6500297655985818e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.394904458598726 }, { "start": 897.42, "end": 899.12, "text": "还有它的债务来背书", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 899.12, "end": 901.68, "text": "那公开市场的日元和国债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 901.68, "end": 904.44, "text": "其实我们看到的只是第一个层面", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 904.44, "end": 906.42, "text": "那下一期呢我想要来谈一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 906.42, "end": 907.34, "text": "其实这个是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 907.34, "end": 909.92, "text": "我觉得是更深一层的思考", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 909.92, "end": 912.06, "text": "就是因为日本它现在也要允许", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 912.06, "end": 913.3, "text": "它的GPIF", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 913.3, "end": 916.16, "text": "投资日本本土的私募基金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 916.16, "end": 917.3, "text": "那这个私募基金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 917.3, "end": 919.1, "text": "其实不只是日本的GPIF", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 919.1, "end": 920.64, "text": "就是它的退休基金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 920.64, "end": 922.72, "text": "被允许去投私募基金", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 922.72, "end": 924.96, "text": "其实全球市场也在往这样发展", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 924.96, "end": 927.26, "text": "那这样发展有哪些好处", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07716757910592216, "no_speech_prob": 1.2855683531598494e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.506896551724138 }, { "start": 927.26, "end": 929.16, "text": "还有哪些潜在的风险呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 929.16, "end": 930.56, "text": "所以我想要来探讨一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 930.56, "end": 931.56, "text": "我是魔王", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 931.56, "end": 932.96, "text": "频道命名魔王想两下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 932.96, "end": 934.26, "text": "提醒自己多想一层", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 934.26, "end": 935.68, "text": "直面恐惧与贪婪", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 935.68, "end": 937.58, "text": "如果你喜欢这样的分析方式", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 937.58, "end": 938.66, "text": "对于今天的题目", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 938.66, "end": 940.1, "text": "我们欢迎你留言分享", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 940.1, "end": 940.84, "text": "你的看法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 }, { "start": 940.84, "end": 941.62, "text": "我们下次再见", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.07776957035064697, "no_speech_prob": 1.3570033985388363e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2169811320754718 } ], "segmented_transcription": { "status": "SEGMENTED_TRANSCRIPT_OK", "created_at": "2026-08-10T10:53:04", "manifest": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260810_105229__摩王想兩下_日本年金大轉向_EP1_1.8_兆美元大回流_日圓防線與日本國債重估_摩王_王鴻嬪/segmented_work/chunk_manifest.json", "audio": "/Users/sagawa/AI_WORK/video_notes/url/20260810_105229__摩王想兩下_日本年金大轉向_EP1_1.8_兆美元大回流_日圓防線與日本國債重估_摩王_王鴻嬪/audio_16k_mono.wav", "audio_sha256": "d26b7d7ba55b50a7b9ffb7744b2ca718db019e26f7d4e91a0a8b13ef1a38a407", "audio_duration": 944.21625, "model": "mlx-community/whisper-large-v3-turbo", "language_hint": null, "condition_on_previous_text": false, "chunk_count": 2, "resumed_chunks": 0, "merged_segment_count": 490, "final_segment_end": 941.62, "global_repeat_run": 1, "global_repeat_text": "大家好,我是魔王,在两家摩根JP Morgan以及摩根Stanley的买方工作30年,我姓王,这是魔王想两下,在市场中开解现象,我们找到趋势。", "tail_repeat_run": 1, "tail_repeat_text": "我们谈到的是", "hallucination_region_count": 0, "hallucination_regions": [], "qc_ok": true, "qc_errors": [] } }