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這兩天大家熱意的新聞是台積電有沒有可能被英特爾威脅?因為英特爾的封測EMIB的良率來到90%。可以說這個數字震撼業績。所以問一下吳總,它的EMIB真的很厲害嗎?

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第一個EMIB,如果從技術的角度來講,它是比COVAS厲害。

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技術的角度比COVAS厲害?

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对 因为COVAS是主要

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其实COVAS也是在AI的时代

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出来的一个封装

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它是一个很大的一个封装

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所以它有一个非常大面积的中介层

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它很大面积的

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就是它底下的大面积的

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silicon base在那里

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要细穿孔 那很大

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然后放了GPU

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旁边再放HBM的DRAM这样

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这么多的

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那这个部分呢

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這個封裝其實進入門檻很高

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因為台積電

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COAS的進入門檻很高

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COAS進入很高

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那只有台積電可以做

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台積電也是花了很多時間

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當然COAS的良率是都非常好

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為什麼呢

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這個封裝坦白講

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封裝的良率最主要在哪裡

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那個GPU很貴

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萬一封裝壞了以後

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那個成本是高得不得了

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所以Intel的EMIV

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封装的良率是90%

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但是90%还不够好

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但是它成本只有COAS一半

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对 成本50%而已

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那这样我们简单的来讲

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这个EMIB的技术是

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它等于是小晶片的一个互联

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那它透过一些矽巧

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矽巧

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矽巧 Silicon Bridge

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就是矽巧

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Silicon Bridge它是怎么样呢

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它跟COAS不一样

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COAS是整片的一个

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就是等于那个silicon base在底下

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它是在窄板上面

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这个EMIP在窄板上

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挖出一些小小的一个洞

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那这些挖出来以后

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再把那个矽桥

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就是silicon bridge放进去

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那它的困难在哪里

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因为放进去以后

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然后它当然可以在晶片连接

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那个连接的话就是

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晶片之间它的那个路径是非常短了

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而且非常有效力

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也不会花那么多热

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但是问题是在

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你要把它埋进去

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什么埋进去

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是细桥埋进去

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细桥在那个窄板上面要挖洞

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然后埋进去

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这个困难度很高

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那细桥的概念我想问

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是不是就是晶片和晶片之间的一个连接的道路

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对 没有错

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然后要把那个道路埋进去很难吗

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對 要埋進去非常難

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因為那個線路很多

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那你要埋進去之間

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然後另外還有一個問題

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就是說那個載板

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跟那個細橋之間

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會有一些膨脹係數的不一樣

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那個也是有問題

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目前它的量力最大的問題

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就是在載板裡面

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把那個就是把細橋放進去

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它的量力現在大概50%而已

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那EMIB的這些載板的

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主要的供應商

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所以因为它的基板燃绿就50%

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所以影响到它整个

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E-M&IBT的封装的燃绿

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只能到90%

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所以基板是关键

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对 这个是关键

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所以它基板里

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就是像Intel以前主要摘板

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像日本的EV-Den

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台湾的新兴电子

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这个都是它主要的供应商

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好 那刚刚有谈到矽桥

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矽桥是谁供应的呢

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在Intel的矽桥这个部分

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是由联电做的

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我们来看一下连电的股价

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2303的连电

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连电股价在今天是上涨0.42%

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其实这一波它有涨过一波了

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我们来看日K线

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它是从低档来到半年线之后

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往上进行反弹

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在这个地方震荡整理

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不过有另外一档跟英特尔的

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封装息息相关的利基电在今天打涨

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我们来看一下利基电

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在今天是亮灯涨停满

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据说它是独家供应英特尔EIBT

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所谓的细电容这个部分

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所以因为它独家供应细电容

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所以骨架供到了掌听

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我来问细电容在整个封庄里头

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又扮演什么角色

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它细电容是这样

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因为我们电容

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现在当然像什么国具和生堂

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他们做的是MLCC

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MLCC

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就是陶瓷基层电容

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那这个细电容是直接在半导体制程

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做出来的

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它直接就是可以跟IC之间

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封裝在一起

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所以EMIB

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就是说你EMIB的话

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跟封裝做在一起

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细电容那个效率就会

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等于整个电路的效率会非常的高

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那也不是只有利基电

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像供给细电容的公司是非常多

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但是据说Intel是由利基电独家供应

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对 主要它绑住了这个部分

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那我们要讲EMIB

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现在大家有一个比较

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对台积电比较大的威胁

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是联发科刚开完

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联发科下单给Intel

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对 蔡立行她就公告了

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因为联发科替Google做TPU-9

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那TPU-9它采用的封装

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它会采用EMIV-T

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那EMIV呢

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EMIV-T也拿到蛮多大单子

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Google的单子

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对对

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然后包括联发科的单子

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甚至外面一直传

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挥大的单子要给他

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部分的单子要给他

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对 他现在是这样

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主要是蔡立行从他的口中透露出

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他们已经研究

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就是事实上在开发

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这个EMIV的封装很久

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然后他觉得解决了很多问题

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他确认2028年

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可以用EMIV来封装谷歌的TPU

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好 那回到股价

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我们来看Intel和台积电的股价

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来创新

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从股价的角度来看

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你怎么做观察

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对 我讲其实现在就变成说

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外资跟内资的基调完全不一样

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我们先来看我们最喜欢的台积电

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台积电下面放外资

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其实外资在这边除了控盘之外

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我先说其实外资是一直在调节台积电

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因为外资他们现在什么

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开始在回防这个所谓的Intel

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所以以外资角度来

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全体一路卖

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所以外资改去买Intel了吗

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对 外资其实卖的

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他卖的台積電

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从本来73%到74%的持股比例

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现在卖到69%

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我算过将近快100万张

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然后英特尔反而持股结构

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法人的单越来越多

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所以如果说看台積电

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单单看本身

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就是退辅基金

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劳动基金

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受险国贷金 富邦金

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全部都买它

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但这个就是这样子

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所以看左边

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退辅基金

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国贷富邦

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通通都在买台積电

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所以我们自己的台積电

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我们自己买

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因为你台电过去

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应该说

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自己的台机自己救

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但我们来看一下英特尔

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花尔街包括科技巨头

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现在都大力做多英特尔

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对而且做多英特尔

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当然是就是川普

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那再来说美国制造

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那他们讲的在概念就是说

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英特尔具备转型的力道

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英特尔大家不要这样看

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今年大概从四五十块

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一口气飙到150

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现在又回来了

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可是包含

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回答当然嘛

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合作自己投嘛

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那贝莱德先锋离航

216
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这些是做ETF了

217
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他們也有持有

218
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大家可以看到有沒有

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拉長一點

220
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從今年度大概四十幾塊

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一口氣飆到142

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你看現在又會貨回100

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所以Intel今年度漲幅確實是比較大

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那現在回到90到100之後

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現在外資這些投行又說

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基本上他們認為台...

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所以我最後換到右下角

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其實除了這種所謂的投行之外

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幾個美國的公開分析師

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包含那個Jim Campbell

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美銀的集團

232
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通通都調高這種所謂台積

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Intel的目標價

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從110條到160

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所以現在大概90幾塊

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所以基本上他們認為空間比較大

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反而對於所謂的台積電來講

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現在的外資是側

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所以我覺得最後講了一個

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為什麼外資側台積電

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因為他們沒有想到台積電

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長這麼快

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因為他們都給他3000塊的目標價

244
00:08:43,980 --> 00:08:46,060
可是涨到2500他觉得空间有限嘛

245
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所以回过头来

246
00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:48,780
卖台机买Intel

247
00:08:48,780 --> 00:08:50,160
Intel现在回档之后

248
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:51,880
我觉得就是极其的表现

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各位投资朋友们大家好

250
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:54,020
我是阿关

251
00:08:54,020 --> 00:08:56,440
有一个很好的好消息跟大家分享

252
00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,720
是因为最近的股市大涨大跌

253
00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,980
动辄涨千点动辄跌千点

254
00:09:00,980 --> 00:09:03,720
很多人说选股票真的难度很高

255
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:04,740
而且头很痛

256
00:09:04,740 --> 00:09:06,180
这样的情况之下呢

257
00:09:06,180 --> 00:09:07,660
我们即将举行一场

258
00:09:07,660 --> 00:09:10,140
不再选股必胜数

259
00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:12,520
你不做什么就能够赚大钱

260
00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:13,800
那我家里还在待一期

261
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,580
时间就在8月15号

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特别是我们邀请到

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毕胜教主周冠南老师

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老师你好

265
00:09:19,740 --> 00:09:21,520
我们现在为您视讯来解教老师

266
00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:22,280
老师你好

267
00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:23,780
培娟好

268
00:09:23,780 --> 00:09:25,020
各位听众大家好

269
00:09:25,020 --> 00:09:26,940
老师你曾经公开说过

270
00:09:26,940 --> 00:09:29,380
你说投资没有捷径

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00:09:29,380 --> 00:09:31,180
但有公式

272
00:09:31,180 --> 00:09:33,360
在8月15号这场论坛当中

273
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:34,780
你会分享公式吗

274
00:09:34,780 --> 00:09:37,100
当然我常常跟人家讲说

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00:09:37,100 --> 00:09:38,380
投资是一门科学

276
00:09:38,380 --> 00:09:40,340
是有数学的最佳解的

277
00:09:40,340 --> 00:09:42,460
那当然当天我会把这个解方

278
00:09:42,460 --> 00:09:43,120
跟大家讲

279
00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:44,460
它确实是有公式的

280
00:09:44,460 --> 00:09:46,300
而且是一个轻松的公式

281
00:09:46,300 --> 00:09:47,740
我想大家都可以理解的

282
00:09:47,740 --> 00:09:49,800
好 所以有人说我们想躺平转

283
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:51,300
那另外呢

284
00:09:51,300 --> 00:09:52,440
有很多人说

285
00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:53,840
我根本已经没有钱投资了

286
00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:54,960
或者已经套牢了

287
00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:56,640
甚至也没时间做功课

288
00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,320
那么现在很多人都很想早退休

289
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:00,620
但是又怕没有钱

290
00:10:00,620 --> 00:10:01,580
又活得很久

291
00:10:01,580 --> 00:10:02,180
你知道吗

292
00:10:02,180 --> 00:10:02,760
很担心

293
00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:03,880
这样的情况之下

294
00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:04,500
老师你说

295
00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:06,620
这些问题都有解

296
00:10:06,620 --> 00:10:08,600
在8月15号的论坛当中

297
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:09,780
会提供解方吗

298
00:10:09,780 --> 00:10:10,840
当然

299
00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,200
我常常跟人家讲

300
00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,560
最好的投資時間是20年前

301
00:10:15,560 --> 00:10:17,000
其次就是現在

302
00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,300
因為你因為沒有錢就不投資

303
00:10:19,300 --> 00:10:22,100
你的未來只會越來越沒希望

304
00:10:22,100 --> 00:10:24,100
那我覺得沒有錢這件事情

305
00:10:24,100 --> 00:10:25,660
其實是一個心理作用

306
00:10:25,660 --> 00:10:27,660
你的錢比你想像要來的多

307
00:10:27,660 --> 00:10:29,440
因為你常會浪費掉很多錢

308
00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,860
所以在這一堂講座裡面

309
00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:34,500
我會特別跟各位講怎麼樣控制自己

310
00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:36,500
然後讓自己成為一個長期投資者

311
00:10:36,500 --> 00:10:37,560
我覺得這是很重要

312
00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:39,760
那你的退休才跟你的投資

313
00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:41,500
可以連接在一起

314
00:10:41,500 --> 00:10:43,020
要不然现在长寿风险

315
00:10:43,020 --> 00:10:43,820
这么的严重

316
00:10:43,820 --> 00:10:45,280
我想投资是你一辈子

317
00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:46,420
应该要关注的事情

318
00:10:46,420 --> 00:10:48,840
好 所以阿关也好想提早退休

319
00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:50,300
所以8月15号

320
00:10:50,300 --> 00:10:51,820
老师我们现场见

321
00:10:51,820 --> 00:10:53,620
当然我们也希望所有的投资人

322
00:10:53,620 --> 00:10:55,760
在8月15号跟我们在现场

323
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:57,300
能够跟老师交流

324
00:10:57,300 --> 00:10:59,760
请你现在马上拿起点手机

325
00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,240
扫描我们的报名系统QR Code

326
00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:03,760
扫描了QR Code之后

327
00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:04,820
进入我们报名系统

328
00:11:04,820 --> 00:11:05,720
赶快报名

329
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:07,520
因为这个座位非常非常的少

330
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:08,660
那么时间呢

331
00:11:08,660 --> 00:11:11,040
论坛的时间是在8月15号

332
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:12,220
在台北举行

333
00:11:12,220 --> 00:11:14,640
要跟周冠南老师请教的

334
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,660
要跟周冠南老师面对面的

335
00:11:16,660 --> 00:11:19,040
我们在8月15号现场见

336
00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:42,400
周一到周五晚上九点到十一点

337
00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:43,760
问我什么事