{ "text": "中美全面脱钩,在疫情期间其实就已经开始了,已经持续好几年了。\n中国一直在寻求完整的产业链,避免被制裁。美国也开始构建关键的产业链。\n中国要解决问题,其实可以进行分配改革,扩大开放,建立内需,避免因为出口遭遇贸易壁垒而面临经济压力。\n此外,内需市场的扩大也增加了自己的谈判筹码,让西方在制裁的时候投鼠忌器。\n毕竟没有哪个资本家愿意失去中国这样一个大市场。\n但进行分辨改革非常非常难\n也没有办法建立一个以消费为中心的市场环境\n这种情况下\n靠外贸出口来维持经济增长非常困难\n也很脆弱\n容易受到他国的制裁\n再加上房地产的崩溃\n更加是雪上加霜\n联应现有的发展模式而不改变的话\n老百姓的日子恐怕会越来越难\n大家好\n今天是2016年的8月5号\n昨晚传出一条重磅消息\n根据路透社的报道\n美国政府正在起草一项新禁令\n打算禁止从中国进口光模块\n目的就是加强他们对AI基础设施供应链的控制\n这项措施由美国联邦通信委员会\n也就是FCC牵头制定的\n美国这边争取在2026年年内正式对外公布\n公布之后就马上生效\n虽然目前还只是个草案\n最终会怎么落地还不确定\n但这个消息实在是太炸裂了\n已经迅速传遍全球\n市场立刻陷入恐慌\n国内的官方媒体也跟进报道了\n资本市场可能又要迎来一轮腥风血雨\n最先大跌的就是龙头一中天\n也就是中纪续创、新益胜等龙头企业\n他们的业务绝大部分来自美国\n中纪续创和新益胜合计在北美数据中心\n高端光模块市场占据极高份额\n接近半壁江山\n昨晚美股盘前和盘中\n美国本土光模块相关公司已经出现明显反应\nAOR大涨16%到19%\nCOHR涨超11%到13%\nLRTE涨6%到11%\n康宁等也跟涨\n市场迅速把中国光模块背禁\n导致美国本土替代受益的逻辑定价进去\n今天A股和港股开盘后\n光模块板块直接冲压\n中继续创A股和港股双双下跌约8%到10%\n新益胜也跌超7%\n整个通信服务指数早盘一度重挫于9%\n出口依赖度高的光模块公司普遍大跌\n当然也有一些公司可能因此受益\n因为美国缺上游原材料\n光模块的上游核心材料\n比如零化烟 泥酸锂\n还有光学滤镜波片 陶瓷套管等\n高度依赖中国供应\n就算美国自己在本土生产\n也得从中国进口这些原材料\n目前中国方面的自新回应是\n中国驻美大使馆已经明确表态\n督促美方倾听两国工商界客观理性声音\n停止抹黑中国企业并以制裁相威胁\n并强调\n对于任何严重损害中方利益的行为\n中国都将采取一切必要措施予以回应\n目前还没有看到更具体的对等反制措施\n但态度已经摆得很清楚\n如果美方真的推进\n中方也可能会采取对等反制\n现在全球高端光模块7种以上的产能都掌握在中国企业手里\n尼伟达谷歌Meta这些北美顶级AR数据中心\n大量的800G 1.6T光模块几乎全是国内的厂商共用的\n可以说中国的光模块就是全世界AR算力的高速公路\n也正是因为中国在这个领域有明显优势\n美国为了避免再像稀土那样被卡脖子\n所以开始想办法逐步摆脱对中国光模块的依赖\nAR是下一代科技竞争的主战场\n光模块就是算力网络的咽喉要道\n美国可以接受中国继续做组装制造\n但绝对不愿意看到中国的企业牢牢掌控\nAR基础设施的关键硬件\n这里我带领大家回顾一下整件事情的前因后果\n只要看懂美国一环扣一环的布局套路\n就明白这个消息绝不是空穴来风\n基本上已经快要落地了\n早在今年4月份FCC就先下发了新规\n中国生产的高速光模块想要销往美国\n必须跑到欧美日韩的第三方实验室去做检测认证\n这样一来\n大批中小型中国厂商直接被抬高的门槛挡在门外\n到了7月监管又升级了一步\n只要光模块设备里面搭载了黑名单厂商的元器件\n整台设备都禁止在美国售卖\n现在这一步可能就是直接针对所有下一代AI光模块硬件\n彻底关上转入大门\n很多人会问美国真的能落地全面禁止进口中国光模块吗\n现在北美云厂的光模块产能本来就紧缺\n英伟达 谷歌 麦塔这些巨头的数据中心\n急需大批硬件来支撑AR建设\n全球产能缺口很大\n短期内美国本土根本造不出足够的高端产品来替代中国\n建厂打磨良绿至少得一到两年的时间\n强行禁令难道不会拖累美国自己的AR产业吗\n一旦真的落地\n确实会直接拖慢\n美国AR数据中心的建设进度\n硅谷一大堆科技巨头\n肯定会第一个站出来反对\n但是美国的首要目标\n是和中国进行脱钩\n减少对中国供应链的依赖\n然后才是他们自己的进度\n就算代价再高\n他们依然有办法绕开现实的约束\n而且美国的脱钩策略\n从来不会选择一刀切式的硬封锁\n还是温水煮青蛙一步一步来\n我认为大概率会分四步慢慢剥离中国供应链\n以下是我的一个推演\n也不一定完全正确\n第一步 新老话段\n只封进新款1.6T CPO光模块\n已经拿到认证的老款产品\n暂时允许正常流通\n避免短期内硬件短缺\n冲击本土AR企业\n第二 抬高海外准入门槛\n用供严苛的安全审查和认证\n大幅抬高中国厂商出海的成本\n第三步 扶持本土\n以及日韩东南亚供应商\n给出政策倾斜\n花一到两年的时间培育本土产业链\n补其产能缺口\n第四步\n等到海外供应链成熟之后\n彻底把国产光模块\n提出北美AR算力市场\n就算中国企业跑去东南亚建厂\nFCC的穿透式审查\n也能识破中资背景\n很难真正绕开监管限制\n这不是会不会的问题\n只是时间早晚的问题\n一旦相关禁定政策真正推进\n对相关公司的冲击可想而知\n国内头部光模块企业\n很大一部分营收和利润都来自北美客户\n如果海外大门慢慢关上\n订单直接萎缩\n企业的业绩会遭遇重创\n光模块这一大条赛道\n会带动上游光器件光芯片PCB\n整条产业链\n全部迎来情绪的剧烈踩踏\n到那个时候\n不管你是棱头还是爱线跟风标的\n泥沙巨下\n绝大多数个股都躲不过沙谷值\n总而言之\n我们要清楚的意识到\n中美新一轮科技站已经再次打响了\n全球AR供应链一定会走向分裂\n形成两套独立的体系\n一边是美国千头盟友搭建起欧美日韩闭环的算力产业链\n硬件全部优先选用本土和盟友国家的货源\n首先考虑供应链安全\n其次才是产品的性价比\n另一边国内会开启自如可控的AR赛道建设\n搭建属于中国自己完整安全的算力网络\n形成完全不同的两道体系\n再说说对资本市场的影响\n很多攒户最大的误区\n就是只看见AR产业的宏大叙事\n完全忽略了地缘政治这把利剑\n资本市场炒的不光是产业前景\n还要看大国博弈\n利好可以把股价推上天\n地缘风险同样可以瞬间把预期全部撕碎\n不要觉得传闻离我们很远\n我们要分清手里的标的\n到底是靠海外订单吃饭\n还是有硬核自研技术做护城河\n风口固然强大\n但大国博弈风浪来的时候\n再火爆的赛道一样会掀起滔天巨浪\n关于中美贸易冲突\n向松诺教授早在2018年的一场演讲中\n就认为这不仅仅是经济层面的摩擦\n更深层次则是价值观的冲突\n且在当时的演讲中\n他认为中国存在几个问题\n一个是缺少法治的环境导致民营企业信心丧失\n第二个是中国的债务问题\n一些地方政府拖欠民营企业账款\n还有就是中美贸易冲突的问题导致外部环境恶化\n他认为2018年可能是未来十年最好的一年\n现在来看的话\n很多东西都被他给说中了\n现在这个演讲在国内已经被删除了\n大家可以听听看\n我們現在面臨的問題主要是自己的問題。我們的問題實在是太多。我認為我們現在很多東西講的是輕描淡寫。\n实际上现在中美的贸易摩擦贸易战已经不是贸易战不是经济战\n是中美两国之间价值观的严重的冲突\n中美关系现在面临巨大的历史的考验怎么办\n我想现在还没有找到一个真正妥善的办法\n坦率的说\n我们有没有反思过从年初开始各种言论瞬嚣尘上\n什么中美贸易战\n美国人是搬起石头砸自己的脚\n中国必胜\n什么贸易战中国要打下去\n大打大赢中打中赢小打小赢\n这不是我们主流媒体的声音吗\n地方债务\n现在是我们金融市场\n非常非常大的一个麻烦\n实际金额到底多少\n国家审计数说是\n17.8万亿\n人大财经委的副主任赫坑先子说是\n40万亿还要还不止\n超过40万亿\n而且没有一个地方政府想还债\n中国最不守信用的是谁\n最不守信用的是政府\n所以现在要把一些政府立为脑赖\n解决企业相互拖欠的问题\n首先是要解决政府拖欠企业\n国有企业拖欠民营企业\n大的民营企业\n拖欠小的民营企业\n现在经济下行压力可能是巨大\n不是可能啊\n绝对是巨大\n这三强改革把它开关成为叫税改\n政改国改\n能不能在这些改革方面\n有真正的突破性的进展\n如果没有\n我最后的结论是\n中国经济将陷入相当长期的\n非常非常困难的境地\n今年中国有三件事情\n我想是我们没有想到\n或者说我们有严重的误判\n中美贸易战\n中美贸易战我们有没有误判\n我们有没有低估\n现在中美贸易战大半年过去\n快一年过去\n我们回忆一下\n年初的我们那些言论\n我们主流媒体的那些言论\n什么中美贸易战\n美国人是搬起石头砸自己的脚\n中国必胜\n什么贸易战中国要打下去\n大打大赢中打中赢小打小赢\n这不是我们主流媒体的声音吗\n为什么会有这样的判断\n到目前为止\n我们对中美贸易摸擦\n对中美贸易战的形式的判断\n我想仍然是有很大的误区\n很大的误区\n直到我们去深刻的反思\n第二个导致我们经济下行的\n是什么呢\n为什么民营企业\n在2018年遭受重创\n我这里讲的叫遭受重创\n我们看看各种数据\n民间的投资\n民营企业的投资大幅放缓\n为什么出现这样的情况\n民营企业家的信心\n为什么遭受重创\n到了11月1号\n国家领导人\n专门召开会议\n啊\n如此高调的\n有人说法是现在经济不行了\n要开始讨好民营企业\n我们有没有反思过从连初开始\n各种言论\n瞬嚣尘上\n什么要消灭私有制啊\n什么暂时不消灭以后再消灭啊\n什么民营企业的任务已经完成了\n该退场了\n什么所有的民营企业都要交个职工啊\n高调学习马克思\n高调学习共产党宣言\n共产党宣言的一句话是什么\n消灭私有志\n那么如此高调的纪念马克思\n如此高调的学习共产党宣言\n这民意企业在传起什么信号呢\n所以中国经济的下行\n中国经济面临的压力\n包括中美贸易摩擦\n中美贸易战的日益的恶化\n我们要反思啊\n我们要反思我们做错了什么\n我们要反思我们面向未来\n要真正的提振中国经济\n要真正的让中国经济能够持续稳定的增长\n我们应该做什么\n也许我讲的观点大家不一定同意\n在座的各位校园你们可以批评\n在今天这么一个新年论坛上\n我希望我的讲话结束以后\n你们的心情非常的沉重\n为什么我希望你们的心情非常沉重呢\n我们现在面临的问题主要是自己的问题\n我们的问题实在是太多\n我认为我们现在很多东西讲的是轻描淡写\n轻描淡写\n总说就在11月1号的座谈会上讲了六个问题\n这六个问题\n我最关心的是第六个\n我们可以思考一下\n在一个法治稍微健全的国家\n在法律面前人人平等的国家\n不用说企业家了\n我们这些普通老百姓的人身和财产安全\n不是也应该得到妥善的保障吗\n改革开放搞了40年\n现在竟然由总书记专门来提\n保障企业家的人权和财产安全\n可见我们的法治\n可见我们的社会的治理\n国家治理的问题\n多么的严峻呢\n那么中国经济面向未来\n我想有这六个方面的内部挑战\n是我们需要深刻的反思的\n深刻的思考的\n这六个方面的巨大挑战\n实践关系不可能一一跟大家讲\n每位同学每位校友大家都应该值得思考\n那么除了内部的以外\n外部的还有三个巨大挑战\n首先是中美的贸易摩擦中美的贸易战\n实际上现在中美的贸易摩擦贸易战已经不是贸易战不是经济战\n是中美两国之间价值观的严重的冲突\n可以完全肯定的说中美关系现在走在一个十字路口\n中美关系现在面临巨大的历史的考验怎么办\n我想现在还没有找到一个真正妥善的办法\n坦率的说\n那么大家最近注意到\n华为孟晚舟\nCF孟晚舟在温哥华被扣\n前两天就这两天CNN BBC都在报道\n美国的盟国全面围堵华为\n这说明什么\n这不是简单的贸易和经济的问题\n所以我们过去有一句话说\n中国经济增长的战略机遇期\n那么现在的战略机遇期还存不存在\n我个人认为现在的战略机遇期\n这个问题是值得反思\n我个人觉得我们现在的国际的战略机遇期\n正在快速的消退\n那么在这样的大的背景下我们怎么办呢\n什么叫国际的战略机遇期\n就是过去的国际规则\n对我们比较有利\n技术资金人才对我们相对开放\n市场对我们相对开放\n所以为什么我今天跟各位校友分享的题目叫\n40年未有之大变局\n40年未有之大变局\n这个大变局是内外的大变局\n我们有没有真正的想明白\n有没有真正的想清楚\n那当然我们现在短期的问题\n是所谓的经济下行\n这里面有大量的数据我不说了\n大家看看10月份的数据\n11月份的数据还没出来呀\n几乎是全线的下行\n无论是我们从\n社会消费到汽车消费\n到房地产的消费\n大家看看出口\n谁说贸易战对中国没有影响\n谁说打贸易战\n我们是大打大营小打小营\n中打中营呢\n我经常问呢\n我说年初四五月份喊这些话的人\n现在这些人到哪去了\n现在这些人出来讲一讲啊\n所以我们对形式的判断\n我们对国际形式的判断\n为什么我们会出错\n为什么我们会有误判\n大家看看这些数据\n那麼我們這個經濟下行當然是一個長期的下行,這本來是沒有太大問題的。\n但是大家注意到\n我们在经济下行的过程里面\n我们现在是消费和第三产业\n消费和第三产业现在占到GDP增长的78.5%\n我按照我们官方的说法说这是好事\n说经济转型已经取得成功\n过去我们依靠投资依靠出口\n现在已经是依靠消费和第三产业\n听起来好像有道理\n但是大家要看到\n在我们这样一个国家\n投资大幅度的放缓\n依靠消费\n我们还能够维持经济的稳定吗\n还能够维持经济的稳定吗\n我想消费现在对GDP的增长\n供应按照官方的说法达到78.5%\n这本身一方面可能是一个好消息\n但是更重要的可能是一个不好的消息\n看看我们的投资\n更重要的是我们的消费现在还能够支撑经济快速的增长吗\n过去40年改革开放40年我们有过五次的消费浪潮\n五次的消费浪潮第一次是解决温饱\n第二次是新三大建\n第三次是信息消费\n第四次是什么\n第四次是汽车\n第五次是房地产\n但是现在这样的五次的消费浪潮\n大家可以看到\n基本上都已经处在一个尾身\n汽车的消费在大幅度下降\n房地上的消费也在大幅度下降\n所以我们现在就面临一个巨大的问题\n这就是政治局会议题的六个吻\n六个吻\n网友调侃上轻轻的六个吻\n轻轻的六个吻\n其实不止六个吻\n再多给你三个吻\n还有三个吻\n还要吻汇率\n吻储备\n吻房价\n显然大家可以看到\n现在这几个吻是很难吻的\n目前看来这个吻汇率\n吻储并问题不大\n外资\n基本上稳定\n但是大家可以看\n投资出口房价股市就业\n怎么能吻呢\n所以为什么我说我今天跟大家分享的关键词叫反思\n我们一起要反思\n为什么会出现这样的情况\n出现这样的情况\n我们正确的对策到底是什么\n在经济下行的同时\n金融风险\n金融风险的大幅的\n影子银行急剧的萎缩\n影子银行急剧的萎缩\n央行的行长出来说了\n有的媒体讲说\n央行行长出来认错\n说以前政策考虑不周\n缺乏协调\n执行偏离\n强奸管效应叠加\n导致到信用的紧缩\n这当然是重要的原因\n但是其实这并非是\n最深层次的原因\n我们看到我们的\n直接融资的市场\n债券融资也好\n股票融资也好\n今年2018年都是被腰斩\n更多的是违约\n企业债的违约\n10月份以前\n三季度前三季度企业债的违约\n已经超过1000个亿\n按照官方的数据\n企业债的违约今年会\n超过1200亿\n还有大量企业的破产\n企业的破产\n按照曹德旺的说法\n现在的企业是纯片的倒下\n国有企业也倒下了\n渤海钢铁\n这是我们伟大的世界500强\n这个企业倒下\n它的负债预额1920个亿\n实际上它的负债预额\n可能达到2800亿\n地方债务\n地方债务\n现在是我们金融市场\n非常非常大的一个麻烦\n实际金额到底多少\n国家审计书说是17.8万亿\n人大财经委的副主任赫坑先生说是40万亿\n还不止超过40万亿\n而且没有一个地方政府想还债\n那么在这样的一个大的背景下\n还有股市的下跌\n等一会我的好朋友金言石先生\n金大侠要专门跟大家讲\n好像他的说法是股市的春天要来的是吧\n等会大家听听股市的春天是不是会来\n我认为春天还早着呢\n大家可以看一看\n这个股市的下跌\n我要讲的不对\n请金大侠批评一下\n这个股市的下跌\n只有1929年华尔街的崩盘\n可以以此相提并论\n华尔街股市崩盘了十年\n不就是全部的股票被腰斩吗\n大多数股票跌到80%\n跌至90%\n你看看我们\n那么我们今天要反思的一个问题\n思考的问题是\n股市之痛到底痛在哪里呢\n股市之痛到底痛在哪里\n有人骂证监会骂刘主席骂这骂那\n我认为是骂错了对象\n监管政策不合适\n监管政策可能不到位\n股市的政策面不到位\n可能是重要原因\n但不是关键原因\n看看我们的利润结构\n中国的上市公司说白了\n不赚钱嘛\n三千多家上市公司\n这么一点利润谁拿走了\n银行板块和房地上两个板块\n拿走全部利润三分之二\n1444家中小版的上市公司\n创业版上市公司的利润比不上一个半工商银行\n这样的股市\n它怎么可能成为牛市呢\n我们买股票主要是买公司的利润吧\n企业的利润他能不能赚钱吧\n不是靠消息炒作是吧\n靠消息炒作我们的去找金大侠\n啊\n那这么一个利润的情况\n我最近看到一个报告\n对比了中国的公司和美国公司的盈利的情况\n美国上市公司\n盈利超过百亿美金\n数十亿美金的那可要数字不尽\n中国的科技企业制造企业\n有几家上市利润能超过百亿美金的\n有一家\n但是没上市\n你们都知道是谁\n那这样的话\n那这样说明什么\n就是耶鲁大学的教授\n罗伯特希特讲的说股市短期\n不是经济的权益表\n但是长期一定是\n所以我想这个股市如此的糟糕\n只能说明一个问题\n中国实力经济相当麻烦\n实力经济相当麻烦\n那么\n股市的春天在哪里呢\n我认为信心还是没有恢复\n10月19号20号\n连续出来了那么多条的政策\n刘和副总理\n我们的校友亲自牵头\n喊话\n那个话喊得够好\n现在怎么样\n上个礼拜五又跌破2600\n始终在2600左右\n要是不活\n所以股市的春天什么时候到来\n等会请金大侠来分享\n请金大侠分解\n是不是有春天\n有春天你提前告诉我\n房地产\n房地产是不用乐观的\n这个话题\n我的时间快到了\n我不讲了\n大家把这个数据\n你们自己拍下来\n我不能占用金大侠的时间\n金大侠告诉你们买什么股票更重要\n那么从这个意义上来讲\n我们的金融风险\n为什么叫三大攻坚战\n所以从这个意义上\n大家知道中国经济的下行\n说到底是我们过去这种扩张的模式\n增长的方式\n发展的这种思维\n重大的问题\n什么问题\n脱石向虚\n都玩虚的\n都玩虚的\n这是前任央行行\n周小山好呢\n讲的\n現在我們的金融風險是什麼?隱蔽性、複雜性、突發性、傳染性、危害性。結構失衡問題突出。違法違規現象重生。既要防止黑天鵝,又要防止灰犀牛。\n有一个记者问周航长\n说周航长你说的黑天鹅在哪里\n黑天鹅是哪几个\n周航长笑而不答\n黑天鹅在你身边\n但飞呀你看不见\n灰犀牛呢\n灰犀牛随时发生\nP2P是不是黑天鹅\n弄不弄的融资的骗局是不是黑天鹅\n区块链罚币圈\n是不是黑天鹅\n房地产就是最大的灰犀牛\n所以我们这种\n拖时向虚\n在中国的表现那就太多了\n我这里列到十个表现\n总之就是套利\n去年在全国金融工作会议上\n总说就和总理\n严厉的批评中国的金融业\n说你们是自娱自乐\n脱实向虚\n金融乱象重生\n触目惊心\n都是用的最高级的词\n然后除了这些金融套利以外\n大量的企业拿了钱去干嘛\n不是去搞主业\n干嘛去呢\n我们的上市公司是没钱吗\n这是官方的数据啊\n权威机构的数据\n过去十年\nIPO定征差不多九万多亿\n九万多亿百分之四十拿去干嘛\n拿去炒股票\n炒期货参股金融公司\n并没有拿去搞主业\n他上市公司能好吗\n所以股权直压\n现在股线质押要爆仓要完蛋\n从一个经济学者的角度\n我是反对政府去救的\n股线质押你爆仓就该爆仓\n你干嘛要救啊\n你为什么要把股线质押去搞别的东西呢\n股线质押的负债你拿去干嘛去呢\n我也认识不少上市公司的创始人和老板\n坦率的说\n相当一些股线质押的资金\n并没有拿去真正搞它的主业\n都去干嘛去了\n都去玩虚的\n还有很多的各种系\n我们上市公司买理财\n买房子\n官方公布的数据\n我们上市公司买投机性买房\n就是一万多亿\n一两万个亿\n所以中国经济全部都是玩虚的\n全部都是靠杠杆\n加杠杆\n2019年开始\n中国就走上了这个不归路\n杠杆率急剧的飙升\n我们现在企业的杠杆率\n是美国的平均的杠杠率的三倍\n日本的两倍\n企业的负债率\n非金融企业的负债率全球最高\n那房地上就更不用说了\n房地上就不用说了\n所以我想这些数据\n分享给大家\n我们这个反思是不是有一个结论了\n是不是有一个结论了\n好\n三年一度\n燕归来\n现在又来了\n现在又来了\n怎么办呢\n现在经济下行压力可能是巨大\n不是可能的\n绝对是巨大\n怎么办\n又把老一套拿出来了\n老一套\n货币政策宽松\n信贷政策激进\n财政政策宽松\n资本政策激进\n但是我要问一个问题\n在座的各位都是我们人大商学院的校友\n刚才我们的书记讲\n人大商学院这么流\n在座的各位都有独立的思考能力\n你们思考一下这些政策行吗\n这些政策能够解决中国的根本问题吗\n我们今年的货币政策不是不宽松啊\n今年我们释放4万亿流动性\n对中教中期接款便利\n释放2.3万亿\n2.3万亿乘以货币乘速\n也是十几万亿吧\n然后现在政策设出了三支箭\n号称一行长三支箭\n第一支箭是贷款\n第二支箭是发债\n第三支箭解决股权质押\n还有更奇葩的\n提出到125的目标\n我们最近到珠三角到一些地方去调研\n当地讲啊\n说地方政府的官员把银行行长找过去开会\n说你们要求给哪些银行贷款\n这不又是胡闹吗\n这是不是胡闹\n所以我们我们现在的问题\n大家要反思我们这样的政策\n能够解决我们深层次的问题吗\n然后再就是要求债转股\n要求债转股\n资本市场\n当然这个政策\n出台那么多条\n我看不是真正管用吧\n出台那么多条\n两个月了吧\n10月19号到现在两个月了\n能管用吗\n这难道不值得我们去认真反思\n我们到底经济的问题在哪里\n所以我的基本结论\n我反思的结论是什么\n我们现在中国经济的问题\n已经不是这个速度的问题\n数量的问题\n它是一个质量的问题\n十九道报告写的好啊\n十八年三中全会也写的非常好\n重大决定写的非常好\n可惜我们很多没有落实\n我们中国结构的问题\n十九道讲的六大不平衡\n更多的是不充分的\n在座的各位都是企业家\n都是我们人民大学商学院的校友\n你们去思考\n各位去思考\n这些问题靠什么信贷\n激进货币宽松\n能解决吗\n能解决吗\n而且\n我真的讲\n信贷货币财政制的短期调整\n无法从根本上解决上述不平衡\n不充分发展的问题\n我们仍然没有跳出旧的政策框架和思维方式\n能否转型升级成功\n关键是看民营企业的活力\n关键是看政策能否激发\n企业家的创新活力\n玩货币玩信贷\n我们玩这么多年\n现在的这些麻烦不就是玩货币\n玩信贷玩出来的吗\n房价玩的这么高\n大家看一看民营企业\n真正面临的核心问题\n不是融资难融资贵\n融资难融资贵\n是叫苦叫苦不迭\n当然也有这方面的问题\n根本的问题是什么\n害怕政策的不确定性\n害怕政府不守信用\n国务院的领导人在常务会上明确讲\n中国最不守信用的是谁\n最不守信用的是政府\n所以现在要把一些政府立为老奈\n解决企业相互拖欠的问题\n首先是要解决政府拖欠企业\n国有企业拖欠民营企业\n大的民营企业拖欠小的民营企业\n三大成本的持续上涨\n所以减税降幅是首要的诉求\n在这个大的背景下\n我的基本结论是\n短期的这些货币信贷政策\n根本解决不了问题\n中国的经济要真正的\n持续的稳定的\n增长要走出今天面临的困境\n必须要\n实施这三项\n实质性的改革\n这三项改革我把它开挂成为叫税改\n政改\n国改\n减税降负\n那怎么谈到减税降负呢\n必须要把政府的这个\n结构把它精简\n人员要大幅的裁掉\n政府要精简\n政府的开支要下降\n就必须要实施政治体制的改革\n政府体制的改革\n北京大学的周启仁教授\n我非常尊重他\n我也非常喜欢周启仁教授\n他这些年一直讲\n中国最大的问题是什么\n中国最大的问题是什么\n中国最大的问题是社会智力成本太高\n社会治理成本太高\n所以这三改\n那么还有政改\n政改再就是国改\n国家治理体系\n当然还有一项教育\n科研教育科研体系的改革\n所以据说啊\n后天要召开\n今年改革开放40周年的\n隆重的大会\n我们衷心的期待\n在这个大会上能够\n吹响进一步升华改革的号角\n我们拭目以待\n能不能在这些改革方面\n有真正的突破性的进展\n如果没有\n我最后的结论是\n中国经济将陷入相当长期的\n非常非常困难的境地\n以上就是这期的全部内容\n好\n我是刘大\n如果你觉得我的分享还不错的话\n欢迎点赞订阅和留言\n这次的分享就到这里\n谢谢大家", "language": "zh", "duration": 2006.761375, "segments": [ { "start": 0.0, "end": 5.4, "text": "中美全面脱钩,在疫情期间其实就已经开始了,已经持续好几年了。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10049495970803585, "no_speech_prob": 8.665727857515293e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.360655737704918 }, { "start": 5.4, "end": 11.6, "text": "中国一直在寻求完整的产业链,避免被制裁。美国也开始构建关键的产业链。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10049495970803585, "no_speech_prob": 8.665727857515293e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.360655737704918 }, { "start": 11.6, "end": 19.8, "text": "中国要解决问题,其实可以进行分配改革,扩大开放,建立内需,避免因为出口遭遇贸易壁垒而面临经济压力。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10049495970803585, "no_speech_prob": 8.665727857515293e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.360655737704918 }, { "start": 19.8, "end": 25.8, "text": "此外,内需市场的扩大也增加了自己的谈判筹码,让西方在制裁的时候投鼠忌器。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10049495970803585, "no_speech_prob": 8.665727857515293e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.360655737704918 }, { "start": 25.8, "end": 29.8, "text": "毕竟没有哪个资本家愿意失去中国这样一个大市场。", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10049495970803585, "no_speech_prob": 8.665727857515293e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.360655737704918 }, { "start": 29.8, "end": 32.52, "text": "但进行分辨改革非常非常难", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 32.52, "end": 35.88, "text": "也没有办法建立一个以消费为中心的市场环境", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 35.88, "end": 37.5, "text": "这种情况下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 37.5, "end": 40.46, "text": "靠外贸出口来维持经济增长非常困难", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 40.46, "end": 41.2, "text": "也很脆弱", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 41.2, "end": 42.8, "text": "容易受到他国的制裁", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 42.8, "end": 44.74, "text": "再加上房地产的崩溃", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 44.74, "end": 46.14, "text": "更加是雪上加霜", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 46.14, "end": 49.38, "text": "联应现有的发展模式而不改变的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 49.38, "end": 51.76, "text": "老百姓的日子恐怕会越来越难", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 51.76, "end": 52.5, "text": "大家好", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 52.5, "end": 55.08, "text": "今天是2016年的8月5号", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 55.08, "end": 57.68, "text": "昨晚传出一条重磅消息", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 57.68, "end": 59.0, "text": "根据路透社的报道", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09630644126016585, "no_speech_prob": 1.677059532911862e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.25 }, { "start": 59.0, "end": 61.6, "text": "美国政府正在起草一项新禁令", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 61.6, "end": 64.36, "text": "打算禁止从中国进口光模块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 64.36, "end": 68.06, "text": "目的就是加强他们对AI基础设施供应链的控制", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 68.06, "end": 71.14, "text": "这项措施由美国联邦通信委员会", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 71.14, "end": 73.54, "text": "也就是FCC牵头制定的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 73.54, "end": 77.26, "text": "美国这边争取在2026年年内正式对外公布", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 77.26, "end": 79.34, "text": "公布之后就马上生效", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 79.34, "end": 81.7, "text": "虽然目前还只是个草案", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 81.7, "end": 83.48, "text": "最终会怎么落地还不确定", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 83.48, "end": 85.72, "text": "但这个消息实在是太炸裂了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 85.72, "end": 87.36, "text": "已经迅速传遍全球", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0872465432023203, "no_speech_prob": 1.4160613653890763e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2347560975609757 }, { "start": 87.36, "end": 89.0, "text": "市场立刻陷入恐慌", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 89.0, "end": 91.76, "text": "国内的官方媒体也跟进报道了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 91.76, "end": 95.08, "text": "资本市场可能又要迎来一轮腥风血雨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 95.08, "end": 97.72, "text": "最先大跌的就是龙头一中天", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 97.72, "end": 101.5, "text": "也就是中纪续创、新益胜等龙头企业", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 101.5, "end": 104.06, "text": "他们的业务绝大部分来自美国", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 104.06, "end": 108.16, "text": "中纪续创和新益胜合计在北美数据中心", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 108.16, "end": 110.62, "text": "高端光模块市场占据极高份额", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 110.62, "end": 111.84, "text": "接近半壁江山", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 111.84, "end": 114.48, "text": "昨晚美股盘前和盘中", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08508445739746094, "no_speech_prob": 1.603885600720556e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.313167259786477 }, { "start": 114.48, "end": 118.12, "text": "美国本土光模块相关公司已经出现明显反应", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 118.12, "end": 122.52, "text": "AOR大涨16%到19%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 122.52, "end": 126.38, "text": "COHR涨超11%到13%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 126.38, "end": 129.46, "text": "LRTE涨6%到11%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 129.46, "end": 130.8, "text": "康宁等也跟涨", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 130.8, "end": 133.4, "text": "市场迅速把中国光模块背禁", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 133.4, "end": 136.52, "text": "导致美国本土替代受益的逻辑定价进去", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 136.52, "end": 139.04, "text": "今天A股和港股开盘后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 139.04, "end": 140.7, "text": "光模块板块直接冲压", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1281306830635906, "no_speech_prob": 9.937282767491507e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.1594827586206897 }, { "start": 140.7, "end": 145.98, "text": "中继续创A股和港股双双下跌约8%到10%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 145.98, "end": 147.94, "text": "新益胜也跌超7%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 147.94, "end": 152.46, "text": "整个通信服务指数早盘一度重挫于9%", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 152.46, "end": 155.48, "text": "出口依赖度高的光模块公司普遍大跌", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 155.48, "end": 157.8, "text": "当然也有一些公司可能因此受益", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 157.8, "end": 159.76, "text": "因为美国缺上游原材料", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 159.76, "end": 161.54, "text": "光模块的上游核心材料", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 161.54, "end": 163.94, "text": "比如零化烟 泥酸锂", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 163.94, "end": 166.86, "text": "还有光学滤镜波片 陶瓷套管等", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 166.86, "end": 168.22, "text": "高度依赖中国供应", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 168.22, "end": 170.24, "text": "就算美国自己在本土生产", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11584177165451445, "no_speech_prob": 1.4509834306286606e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2443729903536977 }, { "start": 170.24, "end": 172.22, "text": "也得从中国进口这些原材料", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 172.22, "end": 174.82, "text": "目前中国方面的自新回应是", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 174.82, "end": 176.8, "text": "中国驻美大使馆已经明确表态", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 176.8, "end": 179.94, "text": "督促美方倾听两国工商界客观理性声音", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 179.94, "end": 182.68, "text": "停止抹黑中国企业并以制裁相威胁", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 182.68, "end": 183.66, "text": "并强调", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 183.66, "end": 186.7, "text": "对于任何严重损害中方利益的行为", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 186.7, "end": 189.56, "text": "中国都将采取一切必要措施予以回应", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 189.56, "end": 193.0, "text": "目前还没有看到更具体的对等反制措施", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 193.0, "end": 195.1, "text": "但态度已经摆得很清楚", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 195.1, "end": 196.86, "text": "如果美方真的推进", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 196.86, "end": 198.94, "text": "中方也可能会采取对等反制", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.062176920238294096, "no_speech_prob": 1.51538573356369e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3719512195121952 }, { "start": 198.94, "end": 204.3, "text": "现在全球高端光模块7种以上的产能都掌握在中国企业手里", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 204.3, "end": 207.7, "text": "尼伟达谷歌Meta这些北美顶级AR数据中心", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 207.7, "end": 212.98, "text": "大量的800G 1.6T光模块几乎全是国内的厂商共用的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 212.98, "end": 217.08, "text": "可以说中国的光模块就是全世界AR算力的高速公路", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 217.08, "end": 220.34, "text": "也正是因为中国在这个领域有明显优势", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 220.34, "end": 223.36, "text": "美国为了避免再像稀土那样被卡脖子", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 223.36, "end": 227.3, "text": "所以开始想办法逐步摆脱对中国光模块的依赖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09817189520055597, "no_speech_prob": 1.2806335852877382e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2395209580838322 }, { "start": 227.3, "end": 230.4, "text": "AR是下一代科技竞争的主战场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 230.4, "end": 232.96, "text": "光模块就是算力网络的咽喉要道", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 232.96, "end": 236.04, "text": "美国可以接受中国继续做组装制造", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 236.04, "end": 239.06, "text": "但绝对不愿意看到中国的企业牢牢掌控", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 239.06, "end": 240.78, "text": "AR基础设施的关键硬件", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 240.78, "end": 245.18, "text": "这里我带领大家回顾一下整件事情的前因后果", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 245.18, "end": 248.1, "text": "只要看懂美国一环扣一环的布局套路", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 248.1, "end": 250.64, "text": "就明白这个消息绝不是空穴来风", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 250.64, "end": 252.58, "text": "基本上已经快要落地了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 252.58, "end": 256.24, "text": "早在今年4月份FCC就先下发了新规", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0538460674181662, "no_speech_prob": 1.3217698636991404e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2588235294117647 }, { "start": 256.24, "end": 260.02, "text": "中国生产的高速光模块想要销往美国", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 260.02, "end": 263.9, "text": "必须跑到欧美日韩的第三方实验室去做检测认证", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 263.9, "end": 265.34, "text": "这样一来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 265.34, "end": 269.38, "text": "大批中小型中国厂商直接被抬高的门槛挡在门外", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 269.38, "end": 271.74, "text": "到了7月监管又升级了一步", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 271.74, "end": 275.3, "text": "只要光模块设备里面搭载了黑名单厂商的元器件", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 275.3, "end": 277.84, "text": "整台设备都禁止在美国售卖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 277.84, "end": 282.9, "text": "现在这一步可能就是直接针对所有下一代AI光模块硬件", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 282.9, "end": 284.44, "text": "彻底关上转入大门", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06293902554354824, "no_speech_prob": 1.3007994854874472e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178 }, { "start": 284.44, "end": 288.98, "text": "很多人会问美国真的能落地全面禁止进口中国光模块吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 288.98, "end": 292.34, "text": "现在北美云厂的光模块产能本来就紧缺", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 292.34, "end": 295.2, "text": "英伟达 谷歌 麦塔这些巨头的数据中心", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 295.2, "end": 298.72, "text": "急需大批硬件来支撑AR建设", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 298.72, "end": 300.18, "text": "全球产能缺口很大", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 300.18, "end": 304.56, "text": "短期内美国本土根本造不出足够的高端产品来替代中国", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 304.56, "end": 308.14, "text": "建厂打磨良绿至少得一到两年的时间", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 308.14, "end": 312.5, "text": "强行禁令难道不会拖累美国自己的AR产业吗", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09437888927674026, "no_speech_prob": 1.6195319391121288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2911392405063291 }, { "start": 312.5, "end": 313.62, "text": "一旦真的落地", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 313.62, "end": 315.08, "text": "确实会直接拖慢", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 315.08, "end": 317.2, "text": "美国AR数据中心的建设进度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 317.2, "end": 318.92, "text": "硅谷一大堆科技巨头", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 318.92, "end": 320.82, "text": "肯定会第一个站出来反对", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 320.82, "end": 323.5, "text": "但是美国的首要目标", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 323.5, "end": 325.42, "text": "是和中国进行脱钩", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 325.42, "end": 327.82, "text": "减少对中国供应链的依赖", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 327.82, "end": 329.78, "text": "然后才是他们自己的进度", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 329.78, "end": 330.82, "text": "就算代价再高", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 330.82, "end": 333.32, "text": "他们依然有办法绕开现实的约束", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 333.32, "end": 335.56, "text": "而且美国的脱钩策略", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 335.56, "end": 338.14, "text": "从来不会选择一刀切式的硬封锁", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 338.14, "end": 340.3, "text": "还是温水煮青蛙一步一步来", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06305991167797469, "no_speech_prob": 1.4397779843355885e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3 }, { "start": 340.3, "end": 344.02, "text": "我认为大概率会分四步慢慢剥离中国供应链", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 344.02, "end": 345.52, "text": "以下是我的一个推演", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 345.52, "end": 346.66, "text": "也不一定完全正确", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 346.66, "end": 348.5, "text": "第一步 新老话段", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 348.5, "end": 351.9, "text": "只封进新款1.6T CPO光模块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 351.9, "end": 353.86, "text": "已经拿到认证的老款产品", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 353.86, "end": 355.64, "text": "暂时允许正常流通", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 355.64, "end": 357.46, "text": "避免短期内硬件短缺", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 357.46, "end": 358.98, "text": "冲击本土AR企业", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 358.98, "end": 361.18, "text": "第二 抬高海外准入门槛", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 361.18, "end": 363.7, "text": "用供严苛的安全审查和认证", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 363.7, "end": 366.08, "text": "大幅抬高中国厂商出海的成本", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 366.08, "end": 368.22, "text": "第三步 扶持本土", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 368.22, "end": 370.22, "text": "以及日韩东南亚供应商", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09389288285199333, "no_speech_prob": 1.3316482465330903e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.258160237388724 }, { "start": 370.22, "end": 371.62, "text": "给出政策倾斜", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 371.62, "end": 374.7, "text": "花一到两年的时间培育本土产业链", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 374.7, "end": 375.96, "text": "补其产能缺口", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 375.96, "end": 376.88, "text": "第四步", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 376.88, "end": 378.86, "text": "等到海外供应链成熟之后", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 378.86, "end": 380.58, "text": "彻底把国产光模块", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 380.58, "end": 382.5, "text": "提出北美AR算力市场", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 382.5, "end": 385.14, "text": "就算中国企业跑去东南亚建厂", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 385.14, "end": 387.16, "text": "FCC的穿透式审查", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 387.16, "end": 388.74, "text": "也能识破中资背景", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 388.74, "end": 390.98, "text": "很难真正绕开监管限制", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 390.98, "end": 392.98, "text": "这不是会不会的问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 392.98, "end": 394.48, "text": "只是时间早晚的问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 394.48, "end": 396.94, "text": "一旦相关禁定政策真正推进", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 396.94, "end": 399.26, "text": "对相关公司的冲击可想而知", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10225970928485577, "no_speech_prob": 1.587047160356292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2707692307692309 }, { "start": 399.26, "end": 401.74, "text": "国内头部光模块企业", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 401.74, "end": 404.5, "text": "很大一部分营收和利润都来自北美客户", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 404.5, "end": 406.28, "text": "如果海外大门慢慢关上", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 406.28, "end": 407.32, "text": "订单直接萎缩", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 407.32, "end": 409.42, "text": "企业的业绩会遭遇重创", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 409.42, "end": 411.28, "text": "光模块这一大条赛道", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 411.28, "end": 414.2, "text": "会带动上游光器件光芯片PCB", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 414.2, "end": 415.16, "text": "整条产业链", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 415.16, "end": 417.52, "text": "全部迎来情绪的剧烈踩踏", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 417.52, "end": 418.46, "text": "到那个时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 418.46, "end": 421.1, "text": "不管你是棱头还是爱线跟风标的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 421.1, "end": 422.58, "text": "泥沙巨下", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 422.58, "end": 425.16, "text": "绝大多数个股都躲不过沙谷值", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 425.16, "end": 426.36, "text": "总而言之", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 426.36, "end": 427.8, "text": "我们要清楚的意识到", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09480490684509277, "no_speech_prob": 1.503364793764561e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2621951219512195 }, { "start": 427.8, "end": 430.44, "text": "中美新一轮科技站已经再次打响了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 430.44, "end": 433.18, "text": "全球AR供应链一定会走向分裂", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 433.18, "end": 434.78, "text": "形成两套独立的体系", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 434.78, "end": 439.32, "text": "一边是美国千头盟友搭建起欧美日韩闭环的算力产业链", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 439.32, "end": 443.06, "text": "硬件全部优先选用本土和盟友国家的货源", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 443.06, "end": 445.16, "text": "首先考虑供应链安全", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 445.16, "end": 447.02, "text": "其次才是产品的性价比", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 447.02, "end": 451.0, "text": "另一边国内会开启自如可控的AR赛道建设", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 451.0, "end": 454.38, "text": "搭建属于中国自己完整安全的算力网络", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 454.38, "end": 456.72, "text": "形成完全不同的两道体系", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09107160568237305, "no_speech_prob": 1.3946972916845102e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3564668769716088 }, { "start": 456.72, "end": 459.22, "text": "再说说对资本市场的影响", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 459.22, "end": 460.74, "text": "很多攒户最大的误区", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 460.74, "end": 463.22, "text": "就是只看见AR产业的宏大叙事", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 463.22, "end": 466.02, "text": "完全忽略了地缘政治这把利剑", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 466.02, "end": 468.76, "text": "资本市场炒的不光是产业前景", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 468.76, "end": 470.2, "text": "还要看大国博弈", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 470.2, "end": 472.46, "text": "利好可以把股价推上天", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 472.46, "end": 475.88, "text": "地缘风险同样可以瞬间把预期全部撕碎", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 475.88, "end": 478.24, "text": "不要觉得传闻离我们很远", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 478.24, "end": 479.92, "text": "我们要分清手里的标的", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 479.92, "end": 481.78, "text": "到底是靠海外订单吃饭", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 481.78, "end": 484.8, "text": "还是有硬核自研技术做护城河", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 484.8, "end": 486.42, "text": "风口固然强大", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.06967995771721228, "no_speech_prob": 1.4688477864566174e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879 }, { "start": 486.42, "end": 488.26, "text": "但大国博弈风浪来的时候", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 488.26, "end": 491.06, "text": "再火爆的赛道一样会掀起滔天巨浪", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 491.06, "end": 492.78, "text": "关于中美贸易冲突", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 492.78, "end": 495.7, "text": "向松诺教授早在2018年的一场演讲中", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 495.7, "end": 498.4, "text": "就认为这不仅仅是经济层面的摩擦", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 498.4, "end": 500.92, "text": "更深层次则是价值观的冲突", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 500.92, "end": 502.46, "text": "且在当时的演讲中", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 502.46, "end": 504.08, "text": "他认为中国存在几个问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 504.08, "end": 507.92, "text": "一个是缺少法治的环境导致民营企业信心丧失", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 507.92, "end": 509.88, "text": "第二个是中国的债务问题", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 509.88, "end": 512.14, "text": "一些地方政府拖欠民营企业账款", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 512.14, "end": 516.08, "text": "还有就是中美贸易冲突的问题导致外部环境恶化", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.054487999171426854, "no_speech_prob": 1.4567975298307445e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4069767441860466 }, { "start": 516.08, "end": 519.58, "text": "他认为2018年可能是未来十年最好的一年", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09594260231923249, "no_speech_prob": 9.843431625355947e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0903225806451613 }, { "start": 519.58, "end": 520.78, "text": "现在来看的话", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09594260231923249, "no_speech_prob": 9.843431625355947e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0903225806451613 }, { "start": 520.78, "end": 522.72, "text": "很多东西都被他给说中了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09594260231923249, "no_speech_prob": 9.843431625355947e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0903225806451613 }, { "start": 522.72, "end": 525.24, "text": "现在这个演讲在国内已经被删除了", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09594260231923249, "no_speech_prob": 9.843431625355947e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0903225806451613 }, { "start": 525.24, "end": 526.36, "text": "大家可以听听看", "chunk": 0, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09594260231923249, "no_speech_prob": 9.843431625355947e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.0903225806451613 }, { "start": 526.703, "end": 535.883, "text": "我們現在面臨的問題主要是自己的問題。我們的問題實在是太多。我認為我們現在很多東西講的是輕描淡寫。", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13107484929701863, "no_speech_prob": 9.546182420938631e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.4014336917562724 }, { "start": 535.883, "end": 541.963, "text": "实际上现在中美的贸易摩擦贸易战已经不是贸易战不是经济战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 541.963, "end": 547.223, "text": "是中美两国之间价值观的严重的冲突", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 547.223, "end": 551.423, "text": "中美关系现在面临巨大的历史的考验怎么办", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 551.423, "end": 555.163, "text": "我想现在还没有找到一个真正妥善的办法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 555.163, "end": 555.863, "text": "坦率的说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 555.863, "end": 561.423, "text": "我们有没有反思过从年初开始各种言论瞬嚣尘上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 561.423, "end": 563.023, "text": "什么中美贸易战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 563.023, "end": 564.783, "text": "美国人是搬起石头砸自己的脚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.09228068131666917, "no_speech_prob": 1.4176196674875463e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3686131386861313 }, { "start": 564.783, "end": 565.523, "text": "中国必胜", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 565.523, "end": 567.883, "text": "什么贸易战中国要打下去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 567.883, "end": 570.183, "text": "大打大赢中打中赢小打小赢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 570.183, "end": 572.603, "text": "这不是我们主流媒体的声音吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 572.603, "end": 574.343, "text": "地方债务", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 574.343, "end": 575.563, "text": "现在是我们金融市场", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 575.563, "end": 578.163, "text": "非常非常大的一个麻烦", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 578.163, "end": 580.143, "text": "实际金额到底多少", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 580.143, "end": 582.043, "text": "国家审计数说是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 582.043, "end": 583.043, "text": "17.8万亿", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 583.043, "end": 585.843, "text": "人大财经委的副主任赫坑先子说是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 585.843, "end": 587.783, "text": "40万亿还要还不止", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 587.783, "end": 589.163, "text": "超过40万亿", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 589.163, "end": 591.883, "text": "而且没有一个地方政府想还债", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 591.883, "end": 594.303, "text": "中国最不守信用的是谁", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16715781845732364, "no_speech_prob": 1.4914130694321237e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.348122866894198 }, { "start": 594.303, "end": 596.323, "text": "最不守信用的是政府", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 596.323, "end": 598.843, "text": "所以现在要把一些政府立为脑赖", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 598.843, "end": 601.523, "text": "解决企业相互拖欠的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 601.523, "end": 604.083, "text": "首先是要解决政府拖欠企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 604.083, "end": 605.783, "text": "国有企业拖欠民营企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 605.783, "end": 606.663, "text": "大的民营企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 606.663, "end": 608.323, "text": "拖欠小的民营企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 608.323, "end": 610.783, "text": "现在经济下行压力可能是巨大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 610.783, "end": 612.263, "text": "不是可能啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 612.263, "end": 613.163, "text": "绝对是巨大", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 613.163, "end": 615.683, "text": "这三强改革把它开关成为叫税改", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 615.683, "end": 617.443, "text": "政改国改", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 617.443, "end": 620.243, "text": "能不能在这些改革方面", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 620.243, "end": 621.983, "text": "有真正的突破性的进展", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 621.983, "end": 623.543, "text": "如果没有", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14136611319877007, "no_speech_prob": 1.574776940793665e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4673913043478262 }, { "start": 623.543, "end": 625.483, "text": "我最后的结论是", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 625.483, "end": 630.523, "text": "中国经济将陷入相当长期的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 630.523, "end": 633.243, "text": "非常非常困难的境地", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 633.243, "end": 635.983, "text": "今年中国有三件事情", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 635.983, "end": 638.483, "text": "我想是我们没有想到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 638.483, "end": 641.283, "text": "或者说我们有严重的误判", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 641.283, "end": 643.163, "text": "中美贸易战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 643.163, "end": 646.023, "text": "中美贸易战我们有没有误判", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 646.023, "end": 648.083, "text": "我们有没有低估", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 648.083, "end": 651.163, "text": "现在中美贸易战大半年过去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 651.163, "end": 652.043, "text": "快一年过去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1489910409470235, "no_speech_prob": 1.1393838997286743e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4773869346733668 }, { "start": 652.043, "end": 653.803, "text": "我们回忆一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 653.803, "end": 655.363, "text": "年初的我们那些言论", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 655.363, "end": 657.643, "text": "我们主流媒体的那些言论", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 657.643, "end": 659.183, "text": "什么中美贸易战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 659.183, "end": 660.943, "text": "美国人是搬起石头砸自己的脚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 660.943, "end": 661.683, "text": "中国必胜", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 661.683, "end": 664.043, "text": "什么贸易战中国要打下去", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 664.043, "end": 666.363, "text": "大打大赢中打中赢小打小赢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 666.363, "end": 669.063, "text": "这不是我们主流媒体的声音吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 669.063, "end": 671.803, "text": "为什么会有这样的判断", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 671.803, "end": 673.863, "text": "到目前为止", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 673.863, "end": 675.123, "text": "我们对中美贸易摸擦", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 675.123, "end": 677.083, "text": "对中美贸易战的形式的判断", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 677.083, "end": 680.343, "text": "我想仍然是有很大的误区", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10479786229688068, "no_speech_prob": 1.5572867648194766e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5525291828793775 }, { "start": 680.343, "end": 682.323, "text": "很大的误区", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 682.323, "end": 683.843, "text": "直到我们去深刻的反思", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 683.843, "end": 686.623, "text": "第二个导致我们经济下行的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 686.623, "end": 688.143, "text": "是什么呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 688.143, "end": 689.963, "text": "为什么民营企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 689.963, "end": 692.643, "text": "在2018年遭受重创", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 692.643, "end": 695.103, "text": "我这里讲的叫遭受重创", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 695.103, "end": 697.583, "text": "我们看看各种数据", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 697.583, "end": 699.603, "text": "民间的投资", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 699.603, "end": 701.363, "text": "民营企业的投资大幅放缓", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 701.363, "end": 703.143, "text": "为什么出现这样的情况", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 703.143, "end": 705.503, "text": "民营企业家的信心", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 705.503, "end": 706.663, "text": "为什么遭受重创", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 706.663, "end": 708.863, "text": "到了11月1号", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12523982331559463, "no_speech_prob": 1.315819328495671e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4017094017094016 }, { "start": 708.863, "end": 710.403, "text": "国家领导人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 710.403, "end": 712.623, "text": "专门召开会议", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 712.623, "end": 712.923, "text": "啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 712.923, "end": 715.003, "text": "如此高调的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 715.003, "end": 718.063, "text": "有人说法是现在经济不行了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 718.063, "end": 720.043, "text": "要开始讨好民营企业", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 720.043, "end": 723.363, "text": "我们有没有反思过从连初开始", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 723.363, "end": 724.663, "text": "各种言论", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 724.663, "end": 725.643, "text": "瞬嚣尘上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 725.643, "end": 727.923, "text": "什么要消灭私有制啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 727.923, "end": 730.623, "text": "什么暂时不消灭以后再消灭啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 730.623, "end": 732.983, "text": "什么民营企业的任务已经完成了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 732.983, "end": 733.703, "text": "该退场了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 733.703, "end": 736.623, "text": "什么所有的民营企业都要交个职工啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 736.623, "end": 738.843, "text": "高调学习马克思", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.21870732026941636, "no_speech_prob": 1.580987250837662e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3656716417910448 }, { "start": 738.843, "end": 740.343, "text": "高调学习共产党宣言", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 740.343, "end": 742.063, "text": "共产党宣言的一句话是什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 742.063, "end": 743.983, "text": "消灭私有志", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 743.983, "end": 746.743, "text": "那么如此高调的纪念马克思", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 746.743, "end": 748.603, "text": "如此高调的学习共产党宣言", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 748.603, "end": 750.663, "text": "这民意企业在传起什么信号呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 750.663, "end": 753.783, "text": "所以中国经济的下行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 753.783, "end": 755.563, "text": "中国经济面临的压力", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 755.563, "end": 758.203, "text": "包括中美贸易摩擦", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 758.203, "end": 760.283, "text": "中美贸易战的日益的恶化", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 760.283, "end": 762.623, "text": "我们要反思啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 762.623, "end": 765.403, "text": "我们要反思我们做错了什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 765.403, "end": 768.463, "text": "我们要反思我们面向未来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1156745289647302, "no_speech_prob": 1.4565003716993097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.579591836734694 }, { "start": 768.463, "end": 770.623, "text": "要真正的提振中国经济", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 770.623, "end": 774.323, "text": "要真正的让中国经济能够持续稳定的增长", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 774.323, "end": 775.643, "text": "我们应该做什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 775.643, "end": 778.443, "text": "也许我讲的观点大家不一定同意", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 778.443, "end": 779.983, "text": "在座的各位校园你们可以批评", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 779.983, "end": 782.603, "text": "在今天这么一个新年论坛上", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 782.603, "end": 784.403, "text": "我希望我的讲话结束以后", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 784.403, "end": 786.023, "text": "你们的心情非常的沉重", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 786.023, "end": 789.303, "text": "为什么我希望你们的心情非常沉重呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 789.303, "end": 792.963, "text": "我们现在面临的问题主要是自己的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 792.963, "end": 795.263, "text": "我们的问题实在是太多", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12086429595947265, "no_speech_prob": 1.6184066239932626e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4785714285714286 }, { "start": 795.263, "end": 799.363, "text": "我认为我们现在很多东西讲的是轻描淡写", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 799.363, "end": 801.183, "text": "轻描淡写", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 801.183, "end": 804.783, "text": "总说就在11月1号的座谈会上讲了六个问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 804.783, "end": 806.803, "text": "这六个问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 806.803, "end": 808.823, "text": "我最关心的是第六个", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 808.823, "end": 810.923, "text": "我们可以思考一下", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 810.923, "end": 814.123, "text": "在一个法治稍微健全的国家", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 814.123, "end": 816.103, "text": "在法律面前人人平等的国家", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 816.103, "end": 817.503, "text": "不用说企业家了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 817.503, "end": 821.163, "text": "我们这些普通老百姓的人身和财产安全", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 821.163, "end": 823.683, "text": "不是也应该得到妥善的保障吗", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12187536401686326, "no_speech_prob": 1.5625160887378087e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3516483516483517 }, { "start": 823.683, "end": 826.043, "text": "改革开放搞了40年", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 826.043, "end": 828.223, "text": "现在竟然由总书记专门来提", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 828.223, "end": 830.663, "text": "保障企业家的人权和财产安全", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 830.663, "end": 832.583, "text": "可见我们的法治", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 832.583, "end": 835.143, "text": "可见我们的社会的治理", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 835.143, "end": 836.943, "text": "国家治理的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 836.943, "end": 840.283, "text": "多么的严峻呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 840.283, "end": 842.743, "text": "那么中国经济面向未来", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 842.743, "end": 845.103, "text": "我想有这六个方面的内部挑战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 845.103, "end": 846.843, "text": "是我们需要深刻的反思的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 846.843, "end": 848.143, "text": "深刻的思考的", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 848.143, "end": 850.423, "text": "这六个方面的巨大挑战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 850.423, "end": 852.123, "text": "实践关系不可能一一跟大家讲", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11255178696069962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3518433768233695e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3464285714285715 }, { "start": 852.123, "end": 855.363, "text": "每位同学每位校友大家都应该值得思考", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 855.363, "end": 858.883, "text": "那么除了内部的以外", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 858.883, "end": 860.943, "text": "外部的还有三个巨大挑战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 860.943, "end": 864.403, "text": "首先是中美的贸易摩擦中美的贸易战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 864.403, "end": 870.303, "text": "实际上现在中美的贸易摩擦贸易战已经不是贸易战不是经济战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 870.303, "end": 875.583, "text": "是中美两国之间价值观的严重的冲突", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 875.583, "end": 879.683, "text": "可以完全肯定的说中美关系现在走在一个十字路口", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08806906283741266, "no_speech_prob": 1.3161827530638881e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4567901234567902 }, { "start": 879.683, "end": 884.163, "text": "中美关系现在面临巨大的历史的考验怎么办", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 884.163, "end": 887.903, "text": "我想现在还没有找到一个真正妥善的办法", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 887.903, "end": 888.583, "text": "坦率的说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 888.583, "end": 890.983, "text": "那么大家最近注意到", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 890.983, "end": 892.683, "text": "华为孟晚舟", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 892.683, "end": 895.743, "text": "CF孟晚舟在温哥华被扣", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 895.743, "end": 899.943, "text": "前两天就这两天CNN BBC都在报道", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 899.943, "end": 905.063, "text": "美国的盟国全面围堵华为", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 905.063, "end": 906.463, "text": "这说明什么", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10359182665424962, "no_speech_prob": 1.3739505193288704e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2103004291845494 }, { "start": 906.463, "end": 909.423, "text": "这不是简单的贸易和经济的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 909.423, "end": 912.123, "text": "所以我们过去有一句话说", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 912.123, "end": 915.603, "text": "中国经济增长的战略机遇期", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 915.603, "end": 918.483, "text": "那么现在的战略机遇期还存不存在", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 918.483, "end": 921.543, "text": "我个人认为现在的战略机遇期", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 921.543, "end": 922.903, "text": "这个问题是值得反思", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 922.903, "end": 927.043, "text": "我个人觉得我们现在的国际的战略机遇期", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 927.043, "end": 928.543, "text": "正在快速的消退", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 928.543, "end": 931.963, "text": "那么在这样的大的背景下我们怎么办呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 931.963, "end": 934.423, "text": "什么叫国际的战略机遇期", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.08969305063548841, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129804972949021e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6351931330472103 }, { "start": 934.423, "end": 936.083, "text": "就是过去的国际规则", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 936.083, "end": 937.023, "text": "对我们比较有利", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 937.023, "end": 939.963, "text": "技术资金人才对我们相对开放", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 939.963, "end": 941.603, "text": "市场对我们相对开放", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 941.603, "end": 945.003, "text": "所以为什么我今天跟各位校友分享的题目叫", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 945.003, "end": 946.703, "text": "40年未有之大变局", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 946.703, "end": 949.243, "text": "40年未有之大变局", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 949.243, "end": 951.283, "text": "这个大变局是内外的大变局", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 951.283, "end": 953.923, "text": "我们有没有真正的想明白", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 953.923, "end": 955.123, "text": "有没有真正的想清楚", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 955.123, "end": 957.843, "text": "那当然我们现在短期的问题", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 957.843, "end": 959.023, "text": "是所谓的经济下行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 959.023, "end": 961.463, "text": "这里面有大量的数据我不说了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 961.463, "end": 963.643, "text": "大家看看10月份的数据", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10028748822635447, "no_speech_prob": 1.7172239324958483e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.494915254237288 }, { "start": 963.643, "end": 966.103, "text": "11月份的数据还没出来呀", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 966.103, "end": 968.463, "text": "几乎是全线的下行", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 968.463, "end": 970.563, "text": "无论是我们从", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 970.563, "end": 973.063, "text": "社会消费到汽车消费", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 973.063, "end": 974.343, "text": "到房地产的消费", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 974.343, "end": 975.603, "text": "大家看看出口", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 975.603, "end": 978.583, "text": "谁说贸易战对中国没有影响", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 978.583, "end": 980.723, "text": "谁说打贸易战", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 980.723, "end": 982.323, "text": "我们是大打大营小打小营", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 982.323, "end": 983.103, "text": "中打中营呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 983.103, "end": 984.883, "text": "我经常问呢", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 984.883, "end": 987.763, "text": "我说年初四五月份喊这些话的人", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 987.763, "end": 988.763, "text": "现在这些人到哪去了", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 988.763, "end": 991.503, "text": "现在这些人出来讲一讲啊", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1231016690217996, "no_speech_prob": 1.4687648666744657e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4133858267716535 }, { "start": 991.503, "end": 994.283, "text": "所以我们对形式的判断", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0979720691464982, "no_speech_prob": 1.0323577062654188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2980769230769231 }, { "start": 994.283, "end": 996.543, "text": "我们对国际形式的判断", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0979720691464982, "no_speech_prob": 1.0323577062654188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2980769230769231 }, { "start": 996.543, "end": 998.183, "text": "为什么我们会出错", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0979720691464982, "no_speech_prob": 1.0323577062654188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2980769230769231 }, { "start": 998.183, "end": 1000.643, "text": "为什么我们会有误判", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0979720691464982, "no_speech_prob": 1.0323577062654188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2980769230769231 }, { "start": 1000.643, "end": 1002.743, "text": "大家看看这些数据", "chunk": 1, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.0979720691464982, "no_speech_prob": 1.0323577062654188e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2980769230769231 }, { "start": 1003.304, "end": 1008.704, "text": "那麼我們這個經濟下行當然是一個長期的下行,這本來是沒有太大問題的。", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.24425320811085888, "no_speech_prob": 1.0742003640762388e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2953367875647668 }, { "start": 1008.704, "end": 1010.484, "text": "但是大家注意到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1010.484, "end": 1012.844, "text": "我们在经济下行的过程里面", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1012.844, "end": 1018.184, "text": "我们现在是消费和第三产业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1018.184, "end": 1022.864, "text": "消费和第三产业现在占到GDP增长的78.5%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1022.864, "end": 1025.964, "text": "我按照我们官方的说法说这是好事", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1025.964, "end": 1028.584, "text": "说经济转型已经取得成功", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1028.584, "end": 1031.104, "text": "过去我们依靠投资依靠出口", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1031.104, "end": 1033.744, "text": "现在已经是依靠消费和第三产业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1033.744, "end": 1035.624, "text": "听起来好像有道理", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1035.624, "end": 1037.684, "text": "但是大家要看到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12386190806720274, "no_speech_prob": 1.276169621367007e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3870967741935485 }, { "start": 1037.684, "end": 1040.104, "text": "在我们这样一个国家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1040.104, "end": 1043.324, "text": "投资大幅度的放缓", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1043.324, "end": 1045.364, "text": "依靠消费", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1045.364, "end": 1048.384, "text": "我们还能够维持经济的稳定吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1048.384, "end": 1051.084, "text": "还能够维持经济的稳定吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1051.084, "end": 1055.084, "text": "我想消费现在对GDP的增长", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1055.084, "end": 1057.784, "text": "供应按照官方的说法达到78.5%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1057.784, "end": 1061.424, "text": "这本身一方面可能是一个好消息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1061.424, "end": 1063.564, "text": "但是更重要的可能是一个不好的消息", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1063.564, "end": 1065.464, "text": "看看我们的投资", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13870684780291656, "no_speech_prob": 1.1302500602106136e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3547008547008548 }, { "start": 1065.464, "end": 1071.224, "text": "更重要的是我们的消费现在还能够支撑经济快速的增长吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1071.224, "end": 1075.504, "text": "过去40年改革开放40年我们有过五次的消费浪潮", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1075.504, "end": 1078.944, "text": "五次的消费浪潮第一次是解决温饱", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1078.944, "end": 1080.124, "text": "第二次是新三大建", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1080.124, "end": 1081.664, "text": "第三次是信息消费", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1081.664, "end": 1082.864, "text": "第四次是什么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1082.864, "end": 1084.844, "text": "第四次是汽车", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1084.844, "end": 1086.884, "text": "第五次是房地产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1086.884, "end": 1091.144, "text": "但是现在这样的五次的消费浪潮", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1091.144, "end": 1091.924, "text": "大家可以看到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11389020722487878, "no_speech_prob": 1.30082672064602e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4913793103448276 }, { "start": 1091.924, "end": 1096.884, "text": "基本上都已经处在一个尾身", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1096.884, "end": 1099.764, "text": "汽车的消费在大幅度下降", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1099.764, "end": 1102.524, "text": "房地上的消费也在大幅度下降", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1102.524, "end": 1104.944, "text": "所以我们现在就面临一个巨大的问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1104.944, "end": 1107.844, "text": "这就是政治局会议题的六个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1107.844, "end": 1110.784, "text": "六个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1110.784, "end": 1113.964, "text": "网友调侃上轻轻的六个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1113.964, "end": 1115.884, "text": "轻轻的六个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1115.884, "end": 1116.824, "text": "其实不止六个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1116.824, "end": 1118.044, "text": "再多给你三个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1118.044, "end": 1119.884, "text": "还有三个吻", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1119.884, "end": 1120.744, "text": "还要吻汇率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1120.744, "end": 1121.224, "text": "吻储备", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1121.224, "end": 1121.804, "text": "吻房价", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1296911821132753, "no_speech_prob": 1.3267863370469701e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.513157894736842 }, { "start": 1121.804, "end": 1124.524, "text": "显然大家可以看到", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1124.524, "end": 1128.104, "text": "现在这几个吻是很难吻的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1128.104, "end": 1130.424, "text": "目前看来这个吻汇率", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1130.424, "end": 1131.824, "text": "吻储并问题不大", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1131.824, "end": 1133.124, "text": "外资", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1133.124, "end": 1135.364, "text": "基本上稳定", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1135.364, "end": 1137.344, "text": "但是大家可以看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1137.344, "end": 1140.204, "text": "投资出口房价股市就业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1140.204, "end": 1142.144, "text": "怎么能吻呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1142.144, "end": 1146.084, "text": "所以为什么我说我今天跟大家分享的关键词叫反思", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1146.084, "end": 1147.904, "text": "我们一起要反思", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1147.904, "end": 1149.424, "text": "为什么会出现这样的情况", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1149.424, "end": 1151.084, "text": "出现这样的情况", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1491330073429988, "no_speech_prob": 1.2160174776842947e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3703703703703705 }, { "start": 1151.084, "end": 1152.864, "text": "我们正确的对策到底是什么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1152.864, "end": 1155.004, "text": "在经济下行的同时", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1155.004, "end": 1155.764, "text": "金融风险", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1155.764, "end": 1158.504, "text": "金融风险的大幅的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1158.504, "end": 1161.384, "text": "影子银行急剧的萎缩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1161.384, "end": 1163.344, "text": "影子银行急剧的萎缩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1163.344, "end": 1164.824, "text": "央行的行长出来说了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1164.824, "end": 1166.504, "text": "有的媒体讲说", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1166.504, "end": 1167.804, "text": "央行行长出来认错", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1167.804, "end": 1170.584, "text": "说以前政策考虑不周", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1170.584, "end": 1171.404, "text": "缺乏协调", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1171.404, "end": 1172.364, "text": "执行偏离", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1172.364, "end": 1174.084, "text": "强奸管效应叠加", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1174.084, "end": 1175.164, "text": "导致到信用的紧缩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1175.164, "end": 1177.664, "text": "这当然是重要的原因", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1177.664, "end": 1180.324, "text": "但是其实这并非是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11500408338463824, "no_speech_prob": 1.8325327366675026e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3969465648854962 }, { "start": 1180.324, "end": 1182.344, "text": "最深层次的原因", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1182.344, "end": 1184.624, "text": "我们看到我们的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1184.624, "end": 1187.224, "text": "直接融资的市场", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1187.224, "end": 1189.224, "text": "债券融资也好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1189.224, "end": 1190.184, "text": "股票融资也好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1190.184, "end": 1193.104, "text": "今年2018年都是被腰斩", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1193.104, "end": 1195.124, "text": "更多的是违约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1195.124, "end": 1197.324, "text": "企业债的违约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1197.324, "end": 1199.184, "text": "10月份以前", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1199.184, "end": 1201.104, "text": "三季度前三季度企业债的违约", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1201.104, "end": 1202.104, "text": "已经超过1000个亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1202.104, "end": 1204.344, "text": "按照官方的数据", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1204.344, "end": 1206.564, "text": "企业债的违约今年会", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1206.564, "end": 1208.564, "text": "超过1200亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10463525111379188, "no_speech_prob": 1.0790207269351093e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4170616113744077 }, { "start": 1208.564, "end": 1210.844, "text": "还有大量企业的破产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1210.844, "end": 1212.844, "text": "企业的破产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1212.844, "end": 1215.284, "text": "按照曹德旺的说法", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1215.284, "end": 1217.864, "text": "现在的企业是纯片的倒下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1217.864, "end": 1219.964, "text": "国有企业也倒下了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1219.964, "end": 1221.684, "text": "渤海钢铁", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1221.684, "end": 1223.264, "text": "这是我们伟大的世界500强", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1223.264, "end": 1225.244, "text": "这个企业倒下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1225.244, "end": 1227.064, "text": "它的负债预额1920个亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1227.064, "end": 1229.424, "text": "实际上它的负债预额", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1229.424, "end": 1231.464, "text": "可能达到2800亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1231.464, "end": 1233.224, "text": "地方债务", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1233.224, "end": 1235.084, "text": "地方债务", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1235.084, "end": 1236.304, "text": "现在是我们金融市场", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13227546739878146, "no_speech_prob": 1.1801243142428586e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3883928571428572 }, { "start": 1236.304, "end": 1238.884, "text": "非常非常大的一个麻烦", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1238.884, "end": 1240.864, "text": "实际金额到底多少", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1240.864, "end": 1244.064, "text": "国家审计书说是17.8万亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1244.064, "end": 1248.224, "text": "人大财经委的副主任赫坑先生说是40万亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1248.224, "end": 1250.504, "text": "还不止超过40万亿", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1250.504, "end": 1253.224, "text": "而且没有一个地方政府想还债", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1253.224, "end": 1256.044, "text": "那么在这样的一个大的背景下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1256.044, "end": 1258.144, "text": "还有股市的下跌", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1258.144, "end": 1261.164, "text": "等一会我的好朋友金言石先生", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1261.164, "end": 1262.664, "text": "金大侠要专门跟大家讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1262.664, "end": 1265.584, "text": "好像他的说法是股市的春天要来的是吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785652882344015, "no_speech_prob": 1.3796431878876358e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3286713286713288 }, { "start": 1265.584, "end": 1269.204, "text": "等会大家听听股市的春天是不是会来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1269.204, "end": 1271.264, "text": "我认为春天还早着呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1271.264, "end": 1273.224, "text": "大家可以看一看", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1273.224, "end": 1275.344, "text": "这个股市的下跌", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1275.344, "end": 1277.304, "text": "我要讲的不对", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1277.304, "end": 1278.484, "text": "请金大侠批评一下", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1278.484, "end": 1280.684, "text": "这个股市的下跌", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1280.684, "end": 1283.084, "text": "只有1929年华尔街的崩盘", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1283.084, "end": 1285.064, "text": "可以以此相提并论", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1285.064, "end": 1287.304, "text": "华尔街股市崩盘了十年", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1287.304, "end": 1289.144, "text": "不就是全部的股票被腰斩吗", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1289.144, "end": 1291.704, "text": "大多数股票跌到80%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1291.704, "end": 1292.924, "text": "跌至90%", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1292.924, "end": 1294.104, "text": "你看看我们", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1570683125429933, "no_speech_prob": 1.4343051052412292e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3794466403162056 }, { "start": 1294.104, "end": 1296.964, "text": "那么我们今天要反思的一个问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1296.964, "end": 1297.884, "text": "思考的问题是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1297.884, "end": 1300.864, "text": "股市之痛到底痛在哪里呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1300.864, "end": 1304.304, "text": "股市之痛到底痛在哪里", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1304.304, "end": 1308.104, "text": "有人骂证监会骂刘主席骂这骂那", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1308.104, "end": 1310.344, "text": "我认为是骂错了对象", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1310.344, "end": 1312.944, "text": "监管政策不合适", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1312.944, "end": 1314.684, "text": "监管政策可能不到位", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1314.684, "end": 1316.804, "text": "股市的政策面不到位", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1316.804, "end": 1317.984, "text": "可能是重要原因", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1317.984, "end": 1319.544, "text": "但不是关键原因", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1319.544, "end": 1321.184, "text": "看看我们的利润结构", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11569454653043273, "no_speech_prob": 1.2467106340341427e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4482758620689655 }, { "start": 1321.184, "end": 1324.284, "text": "中国的上市公司说白了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1324.284, "end": 1326.284, "text": "不赚钱嘛", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1326.284, "end": 1329.324, "text": "三千多家上市公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1329.324, "end": 1330.804, "text": "这么一点利润谁拿走了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1330.804, "end": 1334.064, "text": "银行板块和房地上两个板块", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1334.064, "end": 1335.544, "text": "拿走全部利润三分之二", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1335.544, "end": 1339.364, "text": "1444家中小版的上市公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1339.364, "end": 1342.464, "text": "创业版上市公司的利润比不上一个半工商银行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1342.464, "end": 1344.084, "text": "这样的股市", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1344.084, "end": 1347.124, "text": "它怎么可能成为牛市呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1347.124, "end": 1351.044, "text": "我们买股票主要是买公司的利润吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.17449353800879586, "no_speech_prob": 1.0213121147406579e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4411764705882353 }, { "start": 1351.044, "end": 1352.824, "text": "企业的利润他能不能赚钱吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1352.824, "end": 1355.264, "text": "不是靠消息炒作是吧", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1355.264, "end": 1357.444, "text": "靠消息炒作我们的去找金大侠", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1357.444, "end": 1358.784, "text": "啊", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1358.784, "end": 1361.384, "text": "那这么一个利润的情况", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1361.384, "end": 1363.444, "text": "我最近看到一个报告", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1363.444, "end": 1366.764, "text": "对比了中国的公司和美国公司的盈利的情况", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1366.764, "end": 1368.904, "text": "美国上市公司", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1368.904, "end": 1370.404, "text": "盈利超过百亿美金", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1370.404, "end": 1372.404, "text": "数十亿美金的那可要数字不尽", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1372.404, "end": 1375.164, "text": "中国的科技企业制造企业", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1375.164, "end": 1377.724, "text": "有几家上市利润能超过百亿美金的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1377.724, "end": 1378.244, "text": "有一家", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1378.244, "end": 1379.924, "text": "但是没上市", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1294097900390625, "no_speech_prob": 1.6002379976676195e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5402298850574712 }, { "start": 1379.924, "end": 1381.844, "text": "你们都知道是谁", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1381.844, "end": 1383.644, "text": "那这样的话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1383.644, "end": 1384.924, "text": "那这样说明什么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1384.924, "end": 1387.484, "text": "就是耶鲁大学的教授", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1387.484, "end": 1389.884, "text": "罗伯特希特讲的说股市短期", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1389.884, "end": 1390.984, "text": "不是经济的权益表", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1390.984, "end": 1392.324, "text": "但是长期一定是", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1392.324, "end": 1395.444, "text": "所以我想这个股市如此的糟糕", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1395.444, "end": 1396.284, "text": "只能说明一个问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1396.284, "end": 1397.964, "text": "中国实力经济相当麻烦", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1397.964, "end": 1400.324, "text": "实力经济相当麻烦", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1400.324, "end": 1401.724, "text": "那么", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1401.724, "end": 1404.884, "text": "股市的春天在哪里呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1404.884, "end": 1407.524, "text": "我认为信心还是没有恢复", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11258845426598374, "no_speech_prob": 1.2129806707672497e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.359375 }, { "start": 1407.524, "end": 1410.284, "text": "10月19号20号", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1410.284, "end": 1412.684, "text": "连续出来了那么多条的政策", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1412.684, "end": 1413.784, "text": "刘和副总理", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1413.784, "end": 1415.304, "text": "我们的校友亲自牵头", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1415.304, "end": 1416.884, "text": "喊话", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1416.884, "end": 1418.624, "text": "那个话喊得够好", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1418.624, "end": 1420.544, "text": "现在怎么样", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1420.544, "end": 1423.244, "text": "上个礼拜五又跌破2600", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1423.244, "end": 1425.224, "text": "始终在2600左右", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1425.224, "end": 1425.904, "text": "要是不活", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1425.904, "end": 1428.584, "text": "所以股市的春天什么时候到来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1428.584, "end": 1430.544, "text": "等会请金大侠来分享", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1430.544, "end": 1432.864, "text": "请金大侠分解", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1432.864, "end": 1433.704, "text": "是不是有春天", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1433.704, "end": 1434.904, "text": "有春天你提前告诉我", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1434.904, "end": 1436.644, "text": "房地产", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15508805094538508, "no_speech_prob": 1.533536318765183e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2623574144486691 }, { "start": 1436.644, "end": 1439.644, "text": "房地产是不用乐观的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1439.644, "end": 1441.184, "text": "这个话题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1441.184, "end": 1442.364, "text": "我的时间快到了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1442.364, "end": 1443.084, "text": "我不讲了", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1443.084, "end": 1444.844, "text": "大家把这个数据", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1444.844, "end": 1446.904, "text": "你们自己拍下来", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1446.904, "end": 1450.344, "text": "我不能占用金大侠的时间", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1450.344, "end": 1452.944, "text": "金大侠告诉你们买什么股票更重要", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1452.944, "end": 1455.424, "text": "那么从这个意义上来讲", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1455.424, "end": 1457.644, "text": "我们的金融风险", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1457.644, "end": 1460.124, "text": "为什么叫三大攻坚战", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1460.924, "end": 1462.204, "text": "所以从这个意义上", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1462.204, "end": 1464.364, "text": "大家知道中国经济的下行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15992018127441407, "no_speech_prob": 1.1168017031992772e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3855932203389831 }, { "start": 1464.364, "end": 1468.584, "text": "说到底是我们过去这种扩张的模式", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1468.584, "end": 1470.044, "text": "增长的方式", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1470.044, "end": 1471.944, "text": "发展的这种思维", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1471.944, "end": 1473.744, "text": "重大的问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1473.744, "end": 1474.304, "text": "什么问题", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1474.304, "end": 1475.364, "text": "脱石向虚", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1475.364, "end": 1477.084, "text": "都玩虚的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1477.084, "end": 1478.884, "text": "都玩虚的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1478.884, "end": 1480.804, "text": "这是前任央行行", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1480.804, "end": 1481.604, "text": "周小山好呢", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1481.604, "end": 1482.124, "text": "讲的", "chunk": 2, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.3239052129346271, "no_speech_prob": 1.4454761172733033e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2077922077922079 }, { "start": 1483.074, "end": 1495.074, "text": "現在我們的金融風險是什麼?隱蔽性、複雜性、突發性、傳染性、危害性。結構失衡問題突出。違法違規現象重生。既要防止黑天鵝,又要防止灰犀牛。", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.28909755098646966, "no_speech_prob": 9.439921067055934e-12, "compression_ratio": 1.3542435424354244 }, { "start": 1495.074, "end": 1497.274, "text": "有一个记者问周航长", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1497.274, "end": 1498.934, "text": "说周航长你说的黑天鹅在哪里", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1498.934, "end": 1499.894, "text": "黑天鹅是哪几个", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1499.894, "end": 1502.114, "text": "周航长笑而不答", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1502.114, "end": 1504.974, "text": "黑天鹅在你身边", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1504.974, "end": 1506.014, "text": "但飞呀你看不见", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1506.014, "end": 1507.374, "text": "灰犀牛呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1507.374, "end": 1509.894, "text": "灰犀牛随时发生", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1509.894, "end": 1511.914, "text": "P2P是不是黑天鹅", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1511.914, "end": 1514.874, "text": "弄不弄的融资的骗局是不是黑天鹅", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1514.874, "end": 1517.214, "text": "区块链罚币圈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1517.214, "end": 1518.254, "text": "是不是黑天鹅", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1518.254, "end": 1520.994, "text": "房地产就是最大的灰犀牛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1520.994, "end": 1522.854, "text": "所以我们这种", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1522.854, "end": 1523.834, "text": "拖时向虚", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.19045727069561297, "no_speech_prob": 1.7238066876701374e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4935622317596566 }, { "start": 1523.834, "end": 1526.914, "text": "在中国的表现那就太多了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1526.914, "end": 1529.194, "text": "我这里列到十个表现", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1529.194, "end": 1530.394, "text": "总之就是套利", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1530.394, "end": 1533.474, "text": "去年在全国金融工作会议上", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1533.474, "end": 1534.434, "text": "总说就和总理", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1534.434, "end": 1536.654, "text": "严厉的批评中国的金融业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1536.654, "end": 1539.074, "text": "说你们是自娱自乐", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1539.074, "end": 1540.154, "text": "脱实向虚", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1540.154, "end": 1542.614, "text": "金融乱象重生", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1542.614, "end": 1544.654, "text": "触目惊心", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1544.654, "end": 1546.774, "text": "都是用的最高级的词", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1546.774, "end": 1551.014, "text": "然后除了这些金融套利以外", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15760490982620803, "no_speech_prob": 1.562976484348333e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2727272727272727 }, { "start": 1551.014, "end": 1554.074, "text": "大量的企业拿了钱去干嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1554.074, "end": 1556.354, "text": "不是去搞主业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1556.354, "end": 1557.374, "text": "干嘛去呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1557.374, "end": 1560.234, "text": "我们的上市公司是没钱吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1560.234, "end": 1562.334, "text": "这是官方的数据啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1562.334, "end": 1563.294, "text": "权威机构的数据", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1563.294, "end": 1564.774, "text": "过去十年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1564.774, "end": 1567.714, "text": "IPO定征差不多九万多亿", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1567.714, "end": 1569.414, "text": "九万多亿百分之四十拿去干嘛", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1569.414, "end": 1571.554, "text": "拿去炒股票", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1571.554, "end": 1573.554, "text": "炒期货参股金融公司", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1573.554, "end": 1575.074, "text": "并没有拿去搞主业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1575.074, "end": 1577.754, "text": "他上市公司能好吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1577.754, "end": 1579.714, "text": "所以股权直压", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.15785501565143562, "no_speech_prob": 1.1658486676058288e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3983050847457628 }, { "start": 1579.714, "end": 1582.254, "text": "现在股线质押要爆仓要完蛋", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1582.254, "end": 1584.774, "text": "从一个经济学者的角度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1584.774, "end": 1587.634, "text": "我是反对政府去救的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1587.634, "end": 1590.034, "text": "股线质押你爆仓就该爆仓", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1590.034, "end": 1590.994, "text": "你干嘛要救啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1590.994, "end": 1594.134, "text": "你为什么要把股线质押去搞别的东西呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1594.134, "end": 1596.474, "text": "股线质押的负债你拿去干嘛去呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1596.474, "end": 1599.934, "text": "我也认识不少上市公司的创始人和老板", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1599.934, "end": 1601.274, "text": "坦率的说", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1601.274, "end": 1604.174, "text": "相当一些股线质押的资金", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1604.174, "end": 1605.934, "text": "并没有拿去真正搞它的主业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1605.934, "end": 1606.714, "text": "都去干嘛去了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1606.714, "end": 1608.534, "text": "都去玩虚的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13593825262946052, "no_speech_prob": 1.9145541055309856e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.488888888888889 }, { "start": 1608.534, "end": 1610.734, "text": "还有很多的各种系", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1610.734, "end": 1614.054, "text": "我们上市公司买理财", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1614.054, "end": 1616.374, "text": "买房子", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1616.374, "end": 1618.414, "text": "官方公布的数据", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1618.414, "end": 1620.594, "text": "我们上市公司买投机性买房", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1620.594, "end": 1621.914, "text": "就是一万多亿", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1621.914, "end": 1622.694, "text": "一两万个亿", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1622.694, "end": 1626.174, "text": "所以中国经济全部都是玩虚的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1626.174, "end": 1627.154, "text": "全部都是靠杠杆", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1627.154, "end": 1627.714, "text": "加杠杆", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1627.714, "end": 1629.794, "text": "2019年开始", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1629.794, "end": 1632.394, "text": "中国就走上了这个不归路", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1632.394, "end": 1634.854, "text": "杠杆率急剧的飙升", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1634.854, "end": 1637.374, "text": "我们现在企业的杠杆率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12294242117140028, "no_speech_prob": 1.3008798899205587e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.380952380952381 }, { "start": 1637.374, "end": 1640.634, "text": "是美国的平均的杠杠率的三倍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1640.634, "end": 1641.694, "text": "日本的两倍", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1641.694, "end": 1643.634, "text": "企业的负债率", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1643.634, "end": 1645.834, "text": "非金融企业的负债率全球最高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1645.834, "end": 1648.334, "text": "那房地上就更不用说了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1648.334, "end": 1650.414, "text": "房地上就不用说了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1650.414, "end": 1652.734, "text": "所以我想这些数据", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1652.734, "end": 1654.134, "text": "分享给大家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1654.134, "end": 1657.774, "text": "我们这个反思是不是有一个结论了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1657.774, "end": 1660.834, "text": "是不是有一个结论了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1660.834, "end": 1661.374, "text": "好", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1661.374, "end": 1663.574, "text": "三年一度", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1663.574, "end": 1664.214, "text": "燕归来", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1664.214, "end": 1665.634, "text": "现在又来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.18947091279206452, "no_speech_prob": 1.2367393567580542e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4651162790697674 }, { "start": 1665.634, "end": 1667.414, "text": "现在又来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1667.414, "end": 1669.214, "text": "怎么办呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1669.214, "end": 1672.314, "text": "现在经济下行压力可能是巨大", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1672.314, "end": 1673.734, "text": "不是可能的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1673.734, "end": 1674.674, "text": "绝对是巨大", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1674.674, "end": 1675.514, "text": "怎么办", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1675.514, "end": 1677.774, "text": "又把老一套拿出来了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1677.774, "end": 1679.374, "text": "老一套", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1679.374, "end": 1681.214, "text": "货币政策宽松", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1681.214, "end": 1682.574, "text": "信贷政策激进", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1682.574, "end": 1683.834, "text": "财政政策宽松", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1683.834, "end": 1684.934, "text": "资本政策激进", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1684.934, "end": 1687.194, "text": "但是我要问一个问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1687.194, "end": 1689.514, "text": "在座的各位都是我们人大商学院的校友", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1689.514, "end": 1690.394, "text": "刚才我们的书记讲", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1690.394, "end": 1691.914, "text": "人大商学院这么流", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1691.914, "end": 1694.854, "text": "在座的各位都有独立的思考能力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.13206366578975837, "no_speech_prob": 1.6363611854419702e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.524 }, { "start": 1694.854, "end": 1696.374, "text": "你们思考一下这些政策行吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1696.374, "end": 1700.054, "text": "这些政策能够解决中国的根本问题吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1700.054, "end": 1703.914, "text": "我们今年的货币政策不是不宽松啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1703.914, "end": 1706.314, "text": "今年我们释放4万亿流动性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1706.314, "end": 1708.814, "text": "对中教中期接款便利", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1708.814, "end": 1709.934, "text": "释放2.3万亿", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1709.934, "end": 1711.894, "text": "2.3万亿乘以货币乘速", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1711.894, "end": 1713.194, "text": "也是十几万亿吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1713.194, "end": 1716.114, "text": "然后现在政策设出了三支箭", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1716.114, "end": 1718.714, "text": "号称一行长三支箭", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1718.714, "end": 1720.094, "text": "第一支箭是贷款", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1720.094, "end": 1721.014, "text": "第二支箭是发债", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1721.014, "end": 1723.054, "text": "第三支箭解决股权质押", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14175629085964628, "no_speech_prob": 1.5619274970624097e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4365671641791045 }, { "start": 1723.054, "end": 1726.534, "text": "还有更奇葩的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1726.534, "end": 1728.874, "text": "提出到125的目标", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1728.874, "end": 1732.194, "text": "我们最近到珠三角到一些地方去调研", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1732.194, "end": 1733.894, "text": "当地讲啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1733.894, "end": 1736.814, "text": "说地方政府的官员把银行行长找过去开会", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1736.814, "end": 1738.834, "text": "说你们要求给哪些银行贷款", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1738.834, "end": 1741.114, "text": "这不又是胡闹吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1741.114, "end": 1743.054, "text": "这是不是胡闹", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1743.054, "end": 1746.054, "text": "所以我们我们现在的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1746.054, "end": 1748.014, "text": "大家要反思我们这样的政策", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1748.014, "end": 1750.394, "text": "能够解决我们深层次的问题吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1750.394, "end": 1752.694, "text": "然后再就是要求债转股", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11852606681928243, "no_speech_prob": 1.3011184143985055e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.326086956521739 }, { "start": 1752.694, "end": 1755.754, "text": "要求债转股", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1755.754, "end": 1757.254, "text": "资本市场", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1757.254, "end": 1759.054, "text": "当然这个政策", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1759.054, "end": 1760.614, "text": "出台那么多条", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1760.614, "end": 1762.914, "text": "我看不是真正管用吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1762.914, "end": 1765.094, "text": "出台那么多条", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1765.094, "end": 1765.834, "text": "两个月了吧", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1765.834, "end": 1768.074, "text": "10月19号到现在两个月了", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1768.074, "end": 1769.614, "text": "能管用吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1769.614, "end": 1772.374, "text": "这难道不值得我们去认真反思", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1772.374, "end": 1773.974, "text": "我们到底经济的问题在哪里", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1773.974, "end": 1776.274, "text": "所以我的基本结论", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1776.274, "end": 1777.914, "text": "我反思的结论是什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1777.914, "end": 1780.634, "text": "我们现在中国经济的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14361002995417668, "no_speech_prob": 1.1844952102491035e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3948497854077253 }, { "start": 1780.634, "end": 1782.754, "text": "已经不是这个速度的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1782.754, "end": 1783.974, "text": "数量的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1783.974, "end": 1785.574, "text": "它是一个质量的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1785.574, "end": 1788.394, "text": "十九道报告写的好啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1788.394, "end": 1791.474, "text": "十八年三中全会也写的非常好", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1791.474, "end": 1793.534, "text": "重大决定写的非常好", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1793.534, "end": 1794.974, "text": "可惜我们很多没有落实", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1794.974, "end": 1797.354, "text": "我们中国结构的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1797.354, "end": 1800.174, "text": "十九道讲的六大不平衡", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1800.174, "end": 1803.634, "text": "更多的是不充分的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1803.634, "end": 1805.754, "text": "在座的各位都是企业家", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1805.754, "end": 1807.554, "text": "都是我们人民大学商学院的校友", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1807.554, "end": 1809.074, "text": "你们去思考", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1809.074, "end": 1810.354, "text": "各位去思考", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.1843353797649515, "no_speech_prob": 1.6507028383072608e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.482490272373541 }, { "start": 1810.354, "end": 1812.814, "text": "这些问题靠什么信贷", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1812.814, "end": 1815.234, "text": "激进货币宽松", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1815.234, "end": 1816.494, "text": "能解决吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1816.494, "end": 1818.434, "text": "能解决吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1818.434, "end": 1819.714, "text": "而且", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1819.714, "end": 1821.694, "text": "我真的讲", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1821.694, "end": 1824.014, "text": "信贷货币财政制的短期调整", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1824.014, "end": 1826.134, "text": "无法从根本上解决上述不平衡", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1826.134, "end": 1827.194, "text": "不充分发展的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1827.194, "end": 1830.894, "text": "我们仍然没有跳出旧的政策框架和思维方式", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1830.894, "end": 1833.234, "text": "能否转型升级成功", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1833.234, "end": 1834.794, "text": "关键是看民营企业的活力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1834.794, "end": 1837.114, "text": "关键是看政策能否激发", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1837.114, "end": 1838.614, "text": "企业家的创新活力", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.11599902783410024, "no_speech_prob": 1.4056394069539291e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.372093023255814 }, { "start": 1838.614, "end": 1841.034, "text": "玩货币玩信贷", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1841.034, "end": 1842.174, "text": "我们玩这么多年", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1842.174, "end": 1845.174, "text": "现在的这些麻烦不就是玩货币", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1845.174, "end": 1846.634, "text": "玩信贷玩出来的吗", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1846.634, "end": 1848.654, "text": "房价玩的这么高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1848.654, "end": 1851.054, "text": "大家看一看民营企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1851.054, "end": 1852.334, "text": "真正面临的核心问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1852.334, "end": 1854.734, "text": "不是融资难融资贵", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1854.734, "end": 1856.914, "text": "融资难融资贵", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1856.914, "end": 1858.454, "text": "是叫苦叫苦不迭", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1858.454, "end": 1859.794, "text": "当然也有这方面的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1859.794, "end": 1861.134, "text": "根本的问题是什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1861.134, "end": 1865.014, "text": "害怕政策的不确定性", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1865.014, "end": 1866.474, "text": "害怕政府不守信用", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.118529600974841, "no_speech_prob": 1.3682985300356165e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.4197530864197532 }, { "start": 1866.474, "end": 1870.134, "text": "国务院的领导人在常务会上明确讲", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1870.134, "end": 1872.554, "text": "中国最不守信用的是谁", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1872.554, "end": 1874.814, "text": "最不守信用的是政府", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1874.814, "end": 1877.734, "text": "所以现在要把一些政府立为老奈", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1877.734, "end": 1880.414, "text": "解决企业相互拖欠的问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1880.414, "end": 1882.974, "text": "首先是要解决政府拖欠企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1882.974, "end": 1884.674, "text": "国有企业拖欠民营企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1884.674, "end": 1886.694, "text": "大的民营企业拖欠小的民营企业", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1886.694, "end": 1889.094, "text": "三大成本的持续上涨", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1889.094, "end": 1892.134, "text": "所以减税降幅是首要的诉求", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1892.134, "end": 1894.514, "text": "在这个大的背景下", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.10890645419850069, "no_speech_prob": 1.4859039346171166e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.5060728744939271 }, { "start": 1894.514, "end": 1896.794, "text": "我的基本结论是", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1896.794, "end": 1899.274, "text": "短期的这些货币信贷政策", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1899.274, "end": 1900.694, "text": "根本解决不了问题", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1900.694, "end": 1903.434, "text": "中国的经济要真正的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1903.434, "end": 1905.594, "text": "持续的稳定的", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1905.594, "end": 1907.774, "text": "增长要走出今天面临的困境", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1907.774, "end": 1909.654, "text": "必须要", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1909.654, "end": 1911.674, "text": "实施这三项", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1911.674, "end": 1912.634, "text": "实质性的改革", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1912.634, "end": 1915.654, "text": "这三项改革我把它开挂成为叫税改", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1915.654, "end": 1916.754, "text": "政改", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1916.754, "end": 1917.954, "text": "国改", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1917.954, "end": 1920.014, "text": "减税降负", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1920.014, "end": 1921.934, "text": "那怎么谈到减税降负呢", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.16162242005202945, "no_speech_prob": 1.2169936065842268e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.2765957446808511 }, { "start": 1921.934, "end": 1924.994, "text": "必须要把政府的这个", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1924.994, "end": 1927.114, "text": "结构把它精简", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1927.114, "end": 1929.254, "text": "人员要大幅的裁掉", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1929.254, "end": 1931.234, "text": "政府要精简", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1931.234, "end": 1932.534, "text": "政府的开支要下降", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1932.534, "end": 1934.474, "text": "就必须要实施政治体制的改革", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1934.474, "end": 1935.474, "text": "政府体制的改革", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1935.474, "end": 1937.954, "text": "北京大学的周启仁教授", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1937.954, "end": 1939.734, "text": "我非常尊重他", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1939.734, "end": 1941.054, "text": "我也非常喜欢周启仁教授", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1941.054, "end": 1942.594, "text": "他这些年一直讲", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1942.594, "end": 1944.134, "text": "中国最大的问题是什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1944.134, "end": 1946.154, "text": "中国最大的问题是什么", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1946.154, "end": 1949.634, "text": "中国最大的问题是社会智力成本太高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.12470305593390214, "no_speech_prob": 1.4282679206001347e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.6153846153846154 }, { "start": 1949.634, "end": 1952.234, "text": "社会治理成本太高", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1952.234, "end": 1954.154, "text": "所以这三改", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1954.154, "end": 1956.874, "text": "那么还有政改", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1956.874, "end": 1958.714, "text": "政改再就是国改", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1958.714, "end": 1959.614, "text": "国家治理体系", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1959.614, "end": 1961.954, "text": "当然还有一项教育", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1961.954, "end": 1964.654, "text": "科研教育科研体系的改革", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1964.654, "end": 1966.814, "text": "所以据说啊", "chunk": 3, "language": "zh", "avg_logprob": -0.14271473539048346, "no_speech_prob": 1.2256457133930088e-11, "compression_ratio": 1.3218884120171674 }, { "start": 1966.814, "end": 1968.754, "text": "后天要召开", 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