{
  "text": "今天跟大家講一講美日聯合干預日元匯率這件事情\n美東時間2026年7月31號上午\n外匯市場出現了一次罕見的行情\n日元對美元從接近164的位置\n幾個小時之內拉伸到了157\n單日的漲幅超過了4%\n這是今年5月份中旬以來最大的一次\n單獨看新聞並不算什麼\n但是接下來緊接著後面幾天發生的事情\n就成了一場近代金融史上都罕見的匯率干預事件\n8月1號到3號\n事情的全貌陸陸續續扶著水滅了\n這不是市場的自發行為\n這是美國和日本兩國的政府的聯合行動\n紐約聯邦儲備銀行代表美國財政部\n直接進場買進日元\n8月3號\n日本財務大城片山高越\n正式對外確認了這一點\n為什麼說這件事情\n在近代金融史上都罕見呢\n我們用三個時間座標來衡量\n上一次美日聯合干預匯率市場是2011年\n東日本大地震之後\n距今已經15年了\n再上一次兩個聯手方向買進日元的干預呢\n是1998年亞洲金融風暴期間\n距今已經28年了\n如果把天災和金融海嘯這類極端的情況都排除掉\n在一個正常運轉的市場裡面\n美國政府主動出手買日元\n近代金融史上幾乎找不到潛力\n還有一個細節\n行動前幾天\n美國財政部長貝森特在公開場合\n被記者拍到了一張筆記上面寫著\n買進日元50億到100億美元\n這幾個字寫的那恨不得比黑板報還要大還要清晰\n難道這只是疏忽嗎\n貝森特為什麼要這麼做呢\n今天這期節目\n我們就把這件事情從頭到尾也講清楚\n不止發生了什麼\n還包括它為什麼會發生\n為什麼是現在\n為什麼是這兩個國家\n以及它跟我們有什麼關係\n要看懂這一切\n得先回答一個最最基礎的問題\n日元的價格到底是怎麼決定的\n先說結論\n不是政府定的\n日元對美元的價格\n由全球外匯市場每一天的買賣所決定\n想買日元的人多\n日元就漲\n想賣的人多就跌\n政府平時不參與定價\n所以在自由市場裡面\n政府親自下場買賣\n一旦發生就是大事\n它意味著政府認為\n市場給的這個價格已經不能接受了\n那麼最近日元是一個什麼價格呢\n2026年7月中下旬\n日元對美元一路往下跌\n單週跌破了163的關卡\n逼近164的這個40年曆史低位\n也就是說\n最近賣出日元的人\n賣出日元的數量都太多了\n才會這樣\n那麼下一個問題是\n是誰在賣日元\n為什麼會賣\n答案是兩個字\n利差\n現在把錢存在美國\n年利率是3.5以上\n而存在日本呢\n大約是1%\n同樣一筆錢\n放在美元資產裡的回報\n是日元資產的三倍以上\n資金它是會流動的\n它會自己往回報高的地方去\n於是呢\n全球的錢\n包括日本人自己的存款\n都在持續的賣出日元\n買入美元\n很多精明的投資者呢\n在這個基礎之上\n還發展出了一種更主動的操作\n叫套利交易\n做法是以大約1%的利率\n借入日元換成美元\n去買回報4%上下的美元資產\n中間這個差額就是利潤\n這種交易在全球的規模非常大\n遠遠超過買日本商品\n去日本旅遊所產生的那個實體的換匯需求\n這就是為什麼這幾年去日本再火熱\n免稅店排再長的隊\n都拉不動這個日元的原因\n這裡可能有觀眾會問\n貨幣要是跌多了\n不是會自己漲回來嗎\n教科書上確實是這麼寫的\n貶值讓出口變得便宜\n外國人買日本的貨\n就得先把本地的貨幣變成日元\n那很多人說\n我買日本東西也沒有換\n那是因為你的交易系統\n自動的替你做了這件事情\n好買日本貨多了\n匯率就會回升\n但是這個機制在今天的日本失靈了\n兩個原因\n第一2011年福島核事故之後\n日本的核電長期停擺\n石油天然氣等能源高度依賴進口\n買這些都需要美元\n付出去的美元比出口賺回來的要多\n日本已經從順差國變成了常態的逆差國\n第二日本大企業的工廠早在幾十年前就搬到了海外\n豐田在美國賺的美元\n大部分都留在了美國繼續投資\n不再會回日本\n為什麼呢\n因為投資款回日本利率低\n遠不如在美國繼續投資賺錢多\n所以出口數字再好看\n也換不成買日元的實際需求\n這兩重擋機之下\n日元就只剩下下跌這一個方向了\n跌到什麼程度呢\n按國際清算銀行的資料\n日元實際有效匯率\n已經跌回到了1970年代的水平\n163塊日元才能兌換1美元這個價格\n比多數模型給出的合理估值\n要低了大約四成左右\n但是講到這裡有觀眾會問\n不太對\n有個地方說不通啊\n日美之間的利差不是今天才有的\n過去十年日本是零利率\n甚至是負利率\n利差比現在還大\n那時候市場平穩無視\n為什麼日本利率升到了一\n利差還縮小了\n偏偏是現在出事呢\n這是整件事情裡面最反直覺的一環\n也是理解後面所有內容的關鍵\n2016年到2024年\n日本利率是負的或者是零\n日美利差最大的時候超過了5個百分點\n市場沒有崩\n而現在利差在縮小\n市場反而劇烈震盪\n其中原因在於\n市場在意的不是利差的大小\n而是利差的方向\n什麼意思呢\n來看下面三個具體的機制\n第一個機制是確定性消失了\n在負利率時代\n日本央行等於每天向全世界做一個保證\n利率不會動\n今天明天都會像這條鹹魚一樣躺在這\n這種情況下\n對於借日元做套利的人來說\n成本是所死的\n風險也是所死的\n可以放心的把這個倉位越做越大\n十幾年下來\n全球積累了規模龐大的日元借貸\n但是呢\n一旦日本進入這個升息週期\n這個保證就失效了\n借款成本以後會漲到多少呢\n日元會升得多快呢\n全部都變成了未知數\n金融市場真正定價的\n從來不是現狀而是預期\n預期要是一變\n過去十幾年建立在\n利率永遠不動\n在這個值上的所有部署都要重新計算\n這是第一個機制\n第二個機制是\n升息對套利交易是雙重打擊\n為什麼這麼說呢\n我們來算筆賬\n一個借日元買這個美元資產的投資者\n在日本升息之後\n他要面對兩頭同時惡化\n一頭是利息\n借日元的成本在上升\n另一頭呢是本金\n他將來啊要還的是日元\n借的時候呢\n一美元能換160日元\n可是還的時候一美元只能換140日元\n你看同樣一筆美元換回的日元還變少了\n這等於啊\n他的債務是憑空加重了\n利息在漲\n債務也在漲\n這兩頭一起擠壓\n於是過去借的那麼多日元\n現在都想集中的撤出\n這是第二個機制\n第三個機制是\n日本自己的錢要慢慢的挽回挪\n什麼意思呢\n日本的受險公司還有養老基金\n包括日本的政府養老基金\n那是全世界規模最大的養老基金\n過去因為放在本國完全沒有利息\n所以被迫把這麼多錢配置在海外\n現在日本國內也有1%的收益了\n扣除匯率避險的成本之後\n一部分資金留在國內就開始變得划算了\n那這一批全球最大的機構資金要是一旦轉向\n他們就要把持有的海外資產持續的賣出\n你看這三個機制要是一起轉動起來\n趨勢反轉這件事情\n就變成了市場上必須要去跟的一件事\n聽到這兒可能還有觀眾會問\n既然升息會讓日元升值\n那麼日本早點升息不就沒有這場危機了嗎\n這個問題問到了要害了\n答案是日本不是不想而是不敢\n原因我們放到後面講\n因為它牽涉到這一次美日交易裡面\n日本真正要付出的那個代價\n現在先來解決眼前這個問題\n日元跌到了163接近164了\n進口物價在上漲民生受壓\n這是日本的事情啊\n美國為什麼會著急\n美國為什麼要親自下場呢\n難道日元的問題演變成美國的問題了\n沒錯\n而且呢\n答案還藏在一個大多數人平常不會關注的市場裡面\n美國的國債市場\n先給一個前提\n日本政府要把跌到163將近164的這個日元給救回來\n辦法只能是出手買日元\n道理我們前面講過\n自由市場上的一個東西買的多價格自然就上去了\n那麼用什麼買呢\n只能用美元買\n這就要求日本政府手裡\n得有足夠多的美元\n但是日本的美元\n主要以什麼形式存在呢\n答案是1.14兆美元的美國國債\n按照傳統的做法\n日本要拿到足夠的美元現金\n那只有一條路\n把這些美債賣掉一部分\n就換回美元現金\n問題就來了\n日本賣美債\n為什麼會傷到美國呢\n這裡需要三分鐘\n講清楚一個基本的概念\n債券價格和直利率的這個關係\n這個關係很重要\n理解了這個關係\n你會發現自己突然能多理解了\n許多國際金融現象了\n一張面額100塊的債券\n到期還你100塊\n外加5塊錢的利息\n你如果用100塊錢買入\n回報率這是多少\n5%\n現在假設市場上有人大量的拋售這種債券\n價格就下跌了\n假設下跌到95塊錢\n那麼新的買家\n花95塊錢買進這張面額100的債券\n到期同樣能拿回105塊\n它的實際的回報率就變成了大約10.5%\n這個實際回報率就叫做直利率\n這個直意思就是財富累積利息滋生繁殖了\n這個意思\n注意\n在這個過程中\n沒有任何人去修改明面上的利率\n但是隨著這個債券的價格下跌\n直利率就上升\n拋售越猛\n殖利率標的越高\n這是第一環\n第二環呢\n美債的殖利率\n是美國所有貸款利率的定價基準\n我們要明白銀行的邏輯\n美國國債被全球公認為\n世界上最安全的資產\n因為背後是美國政府的稅收和軍隊\n既然銀行反正是要把錢借出去\n因為借出去才能收利息\n那麼為什麼不借錢給美國政府呢\n也就是去買美國國債\n零風險還能穩賺\n比如5%的回報\n而借給一個普通人買房買車\n這個人很有可能跑路失業破產\n正因為有這個風險\n所以呢借款給個人公司企業\n這個利率就只能比買美債的利率要高\n比如6%不可能再低了\n所以呢假如日本自救大量拋售美債來換美元\n而美債的價格一下跌\n美債值利率從5%漲到了6% 7%\n銀行一看無風險買美債都能賺個6%到7%\n那麼房貸車貸信用卡\n還有銀行的貸款就必須要提升\n水漲船高\n必須要漲到8%到10%\n那這樣一來\n普通美國人的房貸不就立刻飆升了\n企業的成本不就立刻增加了\n那怎麼辦\n只有裁員或者破產\n那美國本土這不就金融海嘯了嗎\n這就是為什麼日元的危機牽動著美國的命門\n美國出手還有第二個動機\n簡單交代一下\n日元最近三年內貶值了將近三成\n等於日本所有的商品進入美國市場時\n變相打了七折\n這就直接抵消了川普政府關稅政策的效果\n匯率不管住\n他的那個關稅加的再高等於白加\n還有一個背景需要補上\n7月30號也就是聯合行動的前一天\n日本已經獨自進場干預過一次了\n這一天呢\n日本投入了6兆到8.45兆的日元\n單日記錄啊\n結果是市場只回調了一下\n空頭沒有退場\n還在不斷的做空\n所以你看光靠日本單獨單邊的干預\n極限就是這樣了\n所以到了7月31號這點早上\n美國面臨著一到兩難的題目\n不幫日本呢\n日本只能繼續賣美債\n那美國會不會反噬\n而幫日本呢\n等於美國政府親手干預這個匯率\n這是美國幾十年來公開反對\n並且呢經常用來指責別國的這種行為\n那怎麼辦呢\n還好美國人手裡啊\n還有一件工具\n這件工具還是2020年疫情期間發明的\n這個工具叫FEMA回購機制\n運作方式很簡單\n日本手裡的美債不賣了\n而是作為抵押品交給美聯儲\n美聯儲拿到日本的這一批美債抵押品之後\n直接就向日本提供短期美元貸款\n干預結束之後\n日本還錢付一筆短期貸款利息\n取回原本屬於它的美債\n這樣一來不需要賣出一張美債\n日本就能拿到大筆的現金美元\n而美國債勢也毫髮無傷\n是不是很好用\n那這個工具是怎麼來的呢\n2020年3月疫情爆發\n全球經濟瞬間停擺\n各國的企業銀行突然面臨著一個巨大的風險\n沒有收入了\n但是到期的債務得還\n拿什麼還呢\n美元\n於是大家同時去搶美元\n搶的人越多越恐慌\n就連美債這種工人最安全的資產都被拋售\n用來換美元現金\n這不就又出現了剛才我們分析過的\n各國銀行拋美債這一幕了嗎\n所以當時美國政府嚇出一身冷汗\n美聯儲趕緊緊急創生了這個非嘛\n就等於說大家別再賤賣美債了\n把美債拿過來抵押\n我直接印美元現鈔借給你們\n這一招的效果太好了\n2021年也就是一年後\n它就從臨時措施變成了一個常設工具\n這一次美日聯合干預日元的匯率的\n動用的就是這個工具\n不同之處是這一次的規模超大\n大到什麼程度呢\n理論上沒有上限\n貝斯特公開說\n未來幾個月將擴大FEMA的這個規模\n那翻譯成市場語言就是\n日本政府買回日元的這個美元彈藥\n無限量供應\n要多少有多少\n好\n這個強大的工具講完了\n接下來講人\n因為啊\n同樣的工具放在那兒\n換一個人來\n大機率不會去用它\n這個人就是美國的財政部長\n那有觀眾可能會問\n財政部長換個人\n結果真的會不一樣嗎\n我們就來對比一下前後兩任財長的這個思路\n前任財長耶倫\n學者出身\n當過美聯儲的主席\n典型的建制派\n他的立場一貫是很明確的\n尊重市場定價\n反對行政力量直接去幹預這個匯率\n2022年到2024年\n日元也多次暴跌\n日本是幾次單邊進場干預\n耶倫每一次都不支援\n這一次要還是他\n9成9美國的反應\n大機率就是口頭關心一下了事\n但是現在的財長貝森特\n履歷完全不同\n他是對沖基金出身\n曾經就擔任過索羅斯基金的那個首席投資官\n他可是親手做過這門生意的\n清楚的知道外匯市場上的投機是怎麼玩的\n槓桿的弱點在哪裡\n更知道在外匯市場上預期比資金更能左右價格\n所以他的打法跟教科書完全相反\n教科書會說\n秘密的分批進場避免打掃金車\n他則完全反過來\n先讓市場知道我要進場規模有多大\n後面還有多少\n所以一個戲劇性的細節就出現了\n干預的前幾天\n他就寫了一張紙條\n擺在了這個會議桌的桌上\n買進日元50億到100億美元\n放在那兒被記者拍到\n干預的當天\n他還在社交平臺上公開確認\n然後喊話\n我們會隨時擴大這個非門的規模\n再放話\n絕不猶豫再次干預\n在對沖基金這一行\n放風讓對手知道\n你的底牌比他厚\n就是一種武器\n但是大家別誤以為\n這是財長貝森特他的個人行為\n這次行動是有法律依據的\n2025年9月\n美日兩國是簽署了一個財務大臣的聯合宣告\n雙方早在一年前就已經書面約定了\n日元匯率出現無秩序波動的時候\n兩國可以協調行動\n也就是說授權書早就放在那了\n講到這裡還剩最後一點疑問\n既然貝森特是華爾街對沖基金出身\n那套高調進場的打法\n那他以前的那些同行\n哪有不知道的道理呢\n估計很多人都能判斷出來\n貝森特實際動用的資金未必有多大\n而很大的一個成分呢\n他就是喊話\n那麼問題來了\n既然他的前同行們看穿了\n那麼為什麼幾天之內空投\n全線撤退\n日元的價格迅速回升呢\n這個問題你搞懂了\n你對市場的理解會超過大多數人\n我們先來定義什麼叫做空\n做空日元的意思是\n借進來日元立刻賣掉\n等它價格跌了\n再用更低的這個價格買回來\n把借來的日元還掉\n那中間這個差價不就出來了嗎\n所以啊\n做空者的這個損益\n跟日元的價格正好相反\n日元跌他就賺\n日元漲呢\n他就虧了\n理解了這個\n再看下面三個機制\n第一個機制叫槓桿\n外匯投機呀\n普遍使用高槓杆\n20倍的槓桿的意思是\n拿10萬美元做保證金\n操作200萬美元\n槓桿能放大收益\n同時也放大虧損算比仗\n在50倍槓桿下\n日元只要反向的上漲2%\n保證金就會全部的虧光\n一旦保證金為零\n系統就會強制的平倉\n本金也就歸零\n而7月31號那一天\n日元幾個小時之內漲了超過4%\n這個漲幅頓時會讓多少的空頭本金歸零呢\n第二個機制\n決策權不在交易員手裡\n這是外行業的人普遍不知道的一點\n在對沖基金內部\n有獨立於交易部門的這個風控部門\n當兩國的政府公開宣佈\n無上限去幹預的這個意向的時候\n封控部門會強制要求降低配置\n不管基金經理個人怎麼判斷\n為什麼呢\n因為賠率不對稱\n你如果判斷這只是喊話\n賭對了呢\n你只能賺到一筆正常的收益\n可是要是賭錯了\n虧掉的可能是整家基金\n收益很有限\n但是風險無限\n沒有任何一家機構會允許交易員\n用整個公司的存亡去賭\n這是第二個機制\n第三個機制是撤退本身會引發連鎖反應\n做空日元的人怎麼樣才能退出交易呢\n唯一動作是買回日元就還掉借來的那些\n注意啊\n這個動作本身就是在推高日元\n於是就出現了一個自我強化的過程\n當第一批人要撤退的時候\n他會買回日元\n那麼日元的價格會有一點上漲\n這個上漲呢會觸發第二批人的這個止損線\n迫使他們也買入日元退出\n那越來越多的人要退出\n日元的價格就會加速的上漲\n觸發更多批人要退出\n那麼越晚離場的人\n他買回日元的成本就會越高\n這個過程在市場上有個名字叫嘎空\n它的特點是一旦啟動\n跟基本面的判斷已經沒有關係了\n所有人比的就只有一件事情\n看誰跑得快\n所以空頭不是被說服了\n它是被機制鎖死了\n這次干預\n美國實際動用的資金可能相當有限\n但它改變了市場上每一個做空者的風險計算\n當這個虧光的這種可能性\n從小機率變成隨時可能的時候\n離場就不再是一個觀點問題\n而是一個紀律問題\n到這裡日元匯率保衛戰打贏了\n一切似乎都可以結束了\n但是事情並沒有結束\n英國和日本的主流財經媒體\n產生了一個新的說法\n日美貨幣同盟正式成型\n注意我們以前只聽說日美軍事同盟\n現在就連貨幣也要同盟了嗎\n這對日本來說是好事還是壞事\n對亞洲其他的國家和地區呢\n比如臺灣中國大陸又意味著什麼呢\n首先為什麼說是同盟而不是合作呢\n這裡有下面這幾個依據\n第一是有書面授權\n前面提到的2025年9月兩國財長的聯合宣告\n就意味著這不是一次性的救援\n而是事先約定好的一個框架\n第二是有那個常設工具就是FEMA\n它在擴大\n而且日本另外還有一項特別協議\n和美聯儲的常設美元互換協議\n全世界只有五個經濟體有這個待遇\n英日歐澳加\n工具一旦長射\n事情就隨時可以重複發生\n第三也是最關鍵的一條\n有政策繫結\n美國出美元它不是無償的\n貝森特公開提出了交換條件\n日本央行需要在未來幾個月深息\n一次性的幫助叫合作\n但是有授權有工具\n有條件交換的長期安排\n這就叫機制\n現在三者齊備了\n這不就是投盟了嗎\n為什麼美國要求日本升息\n邏輯前面已經講得很清楚了\n因為干預只能臨時解決價格波動\n而兩國的利差才是根源\n只要日本利率還在1%\n美國還在3.5%以上\n賣日元的動力就一直存在\n干預的效果會被時間慢慢的磨掉\n要根治就必須要縮小這個利差\n這就又回到前面我們提到過的那個問題\n既然日本升息能救日元\n那麼為什麼30年來它就是不敢升呢\n有三個原因\n第一是債務\n日本政府的債務佔GDP大約260%\n是全球主要經濟體中最高的\n年度預算裡面有將近四分之一用來還本付息\n利率要是一升\n那麼日本政府的利息負擔就直接加重很多\n第二是經濟結構\n日本的低利率環境已經30年了\n大量的中小企業還有揹著房貸的家庭\n是依賴便宜資金來生存的\n要是這個利率快速上升\n最先倒下的就是他們\n第三還有歷史記憶\n日本也不是沒有嘗試過深息\n2000年2006年兩次嘗試\n但是兩次經濟很快都掉頭往下\n現在好不容易剛剛走出30年的通縮\n日本的央行對於深息這個心理陰影\n實在是太大了\n那講到這兒\n很多人可能立刻就會想起一段經歷\n1985年廣場協議\n日本同樣是為了配合美國的利益\n接受了日元大幅升息\n之後的10年\n日本的資產先膨脹後破裂\n再之後是長期的停滯\n相比之下\n這一次是機制不同\n方向也是相反的\n當年被要求升息\n這一次是被幫助升息\n但是貨幣政策與美國利益繫結這個結構是相似的\n相似到什麼程度呢\n會不會走向相同或者不同的結果呢\n只能交給時間去驗證\n但同時也要說明另外一方面\n這對日本不完全是損失或者是壞事\n它換到的東西也是實打實的\n美元體系最高級別的保護\n那從此以後任何人要是做空日元\n他都要先掂量掂量背後站著的那個美聯儲\n沒想到吧\n一個以美元和日元為核心的貨幣防禦體系\n就這樣在亞太成型了\n日美貨幣同盟對華人海外華人以及臺灣人又有什麼影響呢\n還有很多人想問\n這對人民幣國際化又有什麼影響呢\n對中國的影響可以分三個方面來看\n第一層\n續美元化的推進難度上升了\n這幾年部分亞太國家在考慮增加人民幣結算比重\n動機之一就是不滿美元利率週期反覆波動帶來的衝擊\n但是這一次事件向所有人展示了一個現實\n當危機來臨的時候\n能夠在幾天之內調動理論上無上限美元的\n就只有美聯儲和它的核心盟友網路\n而人民幣目前還不能完全自由兌換\n暫時無法提供同等級別的危機支援\n這無關立場只是關乎能力\n對於很多正在權衡的國家來說\n雖然轉向的意願未必消失\n但是腳步會更加慎重\n第二層呢\n人民幣的政策空間被壓縮了\n這裡涉及一個機制\n人民幣的定價參考是一籃子貨幣\n日元在其中佔有可觀的權重\n此前日元暴跌\n人民幣呢\n為了維持自己的出口競爭力\n承受著被動貶值的壓力\n而現在反過來了\n日元被拉回來了\n而且隨著日本隨後繼續升息\n大機率會繼續走強\n這就帶來了一個兩難\n如果中國因為國內經濟需要\n而要降息放鬆銀耕人民幣走落\n可能會引發資本外流的壓力\n但是如果為了穩定匯率而不降息\n國內經濟又得不到支援\n不過這個兩難原本也就在那\n現在只不過是日元轉向之後\n被進一步放大了\n今後人民幣的節奏就多了一個\n必須參照的外部變數\n第三是中國的對沖佈局在加速\n中國還有好幾個可以觀察到的方向\n比如持續的減持美債\n增持黃金儲備\n擴大自己的跨境支付系統\n很多人說的那個亞太金融體系\n兩套系統並行的這個輪廓\n在這一次事件之後呢\n也許會更加清晰\n最後啊\n落到具體的人身上\n這件事情跟我們有什麼關係呢\n對於臺灣的觀眾來說\n如果你還在等日元低點換匯\n要知道164這個位置\n已經被兩國政府確定為防守底線了\n再加上日本如果在8月9月升息\n日元的便宜週期大機率會進入尾聲\n與其在等一個等不到的低點\n分批換匯還是最穩妥的做法\n好訊息是臺灣的機械產業\n過去三年在外銷市場被日元貶值壓著打\n這個劣勢可以暫時止住\n那對於北美觀眾來說\n這次美國干預保護的正是美債殖利率\n也就是北美華人朋友們的房貸利率\n車貸利率依然能夠穩住\n不會暴走\n但有一件事情需要留意\n日本升息會引發全球套利交易的平倉\n資金從美股撤出迴流日本這麼一個過程\n2024年8月就曾經造成美股的劇烈的震盪\n未來幾周特別是科技股的波動\n值得您多留意\n對於香港的觀眾來說\n第一呢\n香港金管局本身就是這個非馬機制的使用方之一\n這套工具跟香港的聯絡匯率體系直接相關\n第二呢\n港元掛鉤美元\n而日元走強會讓區內的資金流向重新洗牌\n關注接下來幾個月的資金面的變化\n好 今天我們就講到這兒\n下期再見",
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      "text": "今天跟大家講一講美日聯合干預日元匯率這件事情",
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      "text": "美東時間2026年7月31號上午",
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      "text": "日元對美元從接近164的位置",
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      "text": "幾個小時之內拉伸到了157",
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      "text": "單日的漲幅超過了4%",
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      "start": 21.04,
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      "text": "單獨看新聞並不算什麼",
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      "start": 23.52,
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      "text": "但是接下來緊接著後面幾天發生的事情",
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      "start": 26.84,
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      "text": "就成了一場近代金融史上都罕見的匯率干預事件",
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      "start": 32.26,
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      "text": "8月1號到3號",
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      "start": 33.7,
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      "text": "事情的全貌陸陸續續扶著水滅了",
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      "start": 38.46,
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      "text": "這是美國和日本兩國的政府的聯合行動",
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      "start": 41.7,
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      "text": "紐約聯邦儲備銀行代表美國財政部",
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      "text": "直接進場買進日元",
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      "start": 47.7,
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      "text": "8月3號",
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      "start": 48.94,
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      "text": "日本財務大城片山高越",
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    {
      "start": 51.08,
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      "text": "正式對外確認了這一點",
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    {
      "start": 52.9,
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      "text": "為什麼說這件事情",
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      "start": 54.58,
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      "text": "在近代金融史上都罕見呢",
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      "start": 57.48,
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      "text": "我們用三個時間座標來衡量",
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      "start": 59.98,
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      "text": "上一次美日聯合干預匯率市場是2011年",
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      "start": 64.3,
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      "text": "東日本大地震之後",
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      "start": 66.02,
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      "text": "距今已經15年了",
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      "start": 67.5,
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      "text": "再上一次兩個聯手方向買進日元的干預呢",
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    {
      "start": 71.2,
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      "text": "是1998年亞洲金融風暴期間",
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      "start": 74.08,
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      "text": "距今已經28年了",
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      "start": 75.7,
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      "text": "如果把天災和金融海嘯這類極端的情況都排除掉",
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      "start": 80.18,
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      "text": "在一個正常運轉的市場裡面",
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      "start": 82.54,
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      "text": "美國政府主動出手買日元",
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      "start": 85.1,
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      "text": "近代金融史上幾乎找不到潛力",
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      "start": 88.22,
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      "text": "還有一個細節",
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      "start": 89.0,
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      "text": "行動前幾天",
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      "start": 90.02,
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      "text": "美國財政部長貝森特在公開場合",
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    {
      "start": 92.74,
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      "text": "被記者拍到了一張筆記上面寫著",
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      "start": 95.7,
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      "text": "買進日元50億到100億美元",
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    {
      "start": 98.4,
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      "text": "這幾個字寫的那恨不得比黑板報還要大還要清晰",
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      "start": 102.4,
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      "text": "難道這只是疏忽嗎",
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      "text": "貝森特為什麼要這麼做呢",
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      "start": 106.24,
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      "text": "今天這期節目",
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      "start": 107.54,
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      "text": "我們就把這件事情從頭到尾也講清楚",
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      "start": 110.08,
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      "text": "不止發生了什麼",
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      "start": 111.46,
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      "text": "還包括它為什麼會發生",
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      "start": 116.04,
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      "text": "以及它跟我們有什麼關係",
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      "start": 118.72,
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      "text": "要看懂這一切",
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      "start": 120.42,
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      "text": "得先回答一個最最基礎的問題",
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      "text": "日元的價格到底是怎麼決定的",
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      "text": "不是政府定的",
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      "text": "日元對美元的價格",
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      "start": 130.3,
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      "text": "由全球外匯市場每一天的買賣所決定",
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      "text": "日元就漲",
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      "text": "想賣的人多就跌",
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      "text": "政府平時不參與定價",
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      "start": 140.34,
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      "text": "所以在自由市場裡面",
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      "start": 144.32,
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      "text": "一旦發生就是大事",
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      "start": 145.88,
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      "start": 147.8,
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      "text": "市場給的這個價格已經不能接受了",
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      "start": 150.36,
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      "text": "那麼最近日元是一個什麼價格呢",
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    {
      "start": 152.7,
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      "text": "2026年7月中下旬",
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      "text": "日元對美元一路往下跌",
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    {
      "start": 157.18,
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      "text": "單週跌破了163的關卡",
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      "start": 159.82,
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      "text": "逼近164的這個40年曆史低位",
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      "start": 163.48,
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      "text": "也就是說",
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      "text": "才會這樣",
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      "text": "利差",
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      "text": "現在把錢存在美國",
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      "text": "同樣一筆錢",
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      "text": "放在美元資產裡的回報",
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      "text": "是日元資產的三倍以上",
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      "text": "資金它是會流動的",
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      "text": "包括日本人自己的存款",
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      "text": "買入美元",
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      "text": "在這個基礎之上",
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      "text": "還發展出了一種更主動的操作",
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      "text": "借入日元換成美元",
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      "text": "去買回報4%上下的美元資產",
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      "text": "中間這個差額就是利潤",
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      "text": "遠遠超過買日本商品",
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      "text": "去日本旅遊所產生的那個實體的換匯需求",
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      "text": "這就是為什麼這幾年去日本再火熱",
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      "text": "免稅店排再長的隊",
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      "text": "都拉不動這個日元的原因",
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      "text": "這裡可能有觀眾會問",
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      "text": "貨幣要是跌多了",
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      "text": "不是會自己漲回來嗎",
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      "text": "教科書上確實是這麼寫的",
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      "text": "貶值讓出口變得便宜",
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      "text": "外國人買日本的貨",
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      "text": "我買日本東西也沒有換",
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      "start": 245.68,
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      "text": "那是因為你的交易系統",
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      "text": "自動的替你做了這件事情",
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      "text": "好買日本貨多了",
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      "start": 251.74,
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      "text": "匯率就會回升",
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      "text": "但是這個機制在今天的日本失靈了",
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      "start": 255.7,
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      "text": "兩個原因",
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      "start": 256.48,
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      "text": "第一2011年福島核事故之後",
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      "text": "日本的核電長期停擺",
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      "start": 261.8,
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      "text": "石油天然氣等能源高度依賴進口",
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      "text": "買這些都需要美元",
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      "start": 266.22,
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      "text": "付出去的美元比出口賺回來的要多",
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      "start": 269.24,
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      "text": "日本已經從順差國變成了常態的逆差國",
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      "start": 273.82,
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      "text": "第二日本大企業的工廠早在幾十年前就搬到了海外",
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      "start": 277.98,
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      "text": "豐田在美國賺的美元",
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      "start": 279.76,
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      "text": "大部分都留在了美國繼續投資",
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      "start": 282.06,
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      "text": "不再會回日本",
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      "start": 283.42,
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      "text": "為什麼呢",
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      "start": 284.34,
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      "text": "因為投資款回日本利率低",
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      "text": "遠不如在美國繼續投資賺錢多",
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      "text": "所以出口數字再好看",
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      "start": 291.38,
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      "text": "也換不成買日元的實際需求",
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    {
      "start": 294.46,
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      "text": "這兩重擋機之下",
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    {
      "start": 296.2,
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      "text": "日元就只剩下下跌這一個方向了",
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    {
      "start": 299.28,
      "end": 300.32,
      "text": "跌到什麼程度呢",
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    {
      "start": 300.32,
      "end": 302.24,
      "text": "按國際清算銀行的資料",
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      "start": 302.24,
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      "text": "日元實際有效匯率",
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    {
      "start": 304.48,
      "end": 307.34,
      "text": "已經跌回到了1970年代的水平",
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    {
      "start": 307.34,
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      "text": "163塊日元才能兌換1美元這個價格",
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    {
      "start": 310.94,
      "end": 313.36,
      "text": "比多數模型給出的合理估值",
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    {
      "start": 313.36,
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      "text": "要低了大約四成左右",
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    {
      "start": 315.0,
      "end": 317.12,
      "text": "但是講到這裡有觀眾會問",
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    {
      "start": 317.12,
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      "text": "不太對",
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    {
      "start": 317.7,
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      "text": "有個地方說不通啊",
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      "start": 319.08,
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      "text": "日美之間的利差不是今天才有的",
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      "start": 321.62,
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      "text": "過去十年日本是零利率",
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      "text": "甚至是負利率",
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      "text": "利差比現在還大",
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      "start": 325.76,
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      "text": "那時候市場平穩無視",
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      "start": 327.46,
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      "text": "為什麼日本利率升到了一",
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      "text": "利差還縮小了",
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    {
      "start": 330.78,
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      "text": "偏偏是現在出事呢",
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    {
      "start": 332.42,
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      "text": "這是整件事情裡面最反直覺的一環",
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    {
      "start": 335.38,
      "end": 337.74,
      "text": "也是理解後面所有內容的關鍵",
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    {
      "start": 337.74,
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      "text": "2016年到2024年",
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      "start": 339.96,
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      "text": "日本利率是負的或者是零",
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      "start": 341.98,
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      "text": "日美利差最大的時候超過了5個百分點",
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      "text": "而現在利差在縮小",
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      "start": 347.92,
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      "text": "其中原因在於",
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      "start": 353.46,
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      "text": "而是利差的方向",
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      "start": 355.26,
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      "text": "什麼意思呢",
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    {
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      "text": "來看下面三個具體的機制",
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      "start": 360.62,
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      "text": "在負利率時代",
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      "text": "日本央行等於每天向全世界做一個保證",
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      "start": 366.04,
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      "text": "今天明天都會像這條鹹魚一樣躺在這",
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      "start": 369.0,
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      "text": "這種情況下",
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      "start": 370.2,
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      "text": "對於借日元做套利的人來說",
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      "start": 375.7,
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      "text": "可以放心的把這個倉位越做越大",
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      "text": "十幾年下來",
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      "start": 385.62,
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      "text": "這個保證就失效了",
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      "text": "借款成本以後會漲到多少呢",
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      "text": "金融市場真正定價的",
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      "start": 400.94,
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      "text": "在這個值上的所有部署都要重新計算",
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      "text": "這是第一個機制",
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      "text": "升息對套利交易是雙重打擊",
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      "start": 410.86,
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      "text": "我們來算筆賬",
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      "text": "一個借日元買這個美元資產的投資者",
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    {
      "start": 416.34,
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      "text": "在日本升息之後",
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    {
      "start": 418.14,
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      "text": "他要面對兩頭同時惡化",
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    {
      "start": 420.04,
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      "text": "一頭是利息",
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    {
      "start": 421.48,
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      "text": "借日元的成本在上升",
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    {
      "start": 423.22,
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      "text": "另一頭呢是本金",
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      "start": 424.82,
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      "text": "他將來啊要還的是日元",
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    {
      "start": 427.42,
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      "text": "借的時候呢",
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    {
      "start": 428.62,
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      "text": "一美元能換160日元",
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      "start": 430.2,
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      "text": "可是還的時候一美元只能換140日元",
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      "text": "你看同樣一筆美元換回的日元還變少了",
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    {
      "start": 437.52,
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      "text": "這等於啊",
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      "start": 438.38,
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      "text": "他的債務是憑空加重了",
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    {
      "start": 440.42,
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      "text": "利息在漲",
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      "text": "債務也在漲",
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      "start": 442.98,
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      "text": "這兩頭一起擠壓",
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      "start": 444.24,
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      "text": "於是過去借的那麼多日元",
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      "start": 446.54,
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      "text": "現在都想集中的撤出",
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    {
      "start": 449.299,
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      "text": "這是第二個機制",
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      "text": "第三個機制是",
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      "text": "日本自己的錢要慢慢的挽回挪",
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    {
      "start": 454.819,
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      "text": "什麼意思呢",
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      "start": 455.879,
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      "text": "日本的受險公司還有養老基金",
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    {
      "start": 458.039,
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      "text": "包括日本的政府養老基金",
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    {
      "start": 460.319,
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      "text": "那是全世界規模最大的養老基金",
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    {
      "start": 462.479,
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      "text": "過去因為放在本國完全沒有利息",
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      "start": 465.419,
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      "text": "所以被迫把這麼多錢配置在海外",
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      "start": 468.439,
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      "text": "現在日本國內也有1%的收益了",
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    {
      "start": 471.019,
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      "text": "扣除匯率避險的成本之後",
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    {
      "start": 473.199,
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      "text": "一部分資金留在國內就開始變得划算了",
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    {
      "start": 476.559,
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      "text": "那這一批全球最大的機構資金要是一旦轉向",
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    {
      "start": 480.319,
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      "text": "他們就要把持有的海外資產持續的賣出",
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      "start": 483.999,
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      "text": "你看這三個機制要是一起轉動起來",
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    {
      "start": 487.739,
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      "text": "趨勢反轉這件事情",
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      "start": 489.119,
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      "text": "就變成了市場上必須要去跟的一件事",
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      "start": 491.539,
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      "text": "聽到這兒可能還有觀眾會問",
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      "text": "既然升息會讓日元升值",
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      "text": "那麼日本早點升息不就沒有這場危機了嗎",
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      "start": 498.699,
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      "text": "這個問題問到了要害了",
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    {
      "start": 503.519,
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      "text": "原因我們放到後面講",
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    {
      "start": 505.279,
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      "text": "因為它牽涉到這一次美日交易裡面",
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      "text": "日本真正要付出的那個代價",
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    {
      "start": 510.719,
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      "text": "現在先來解決眼前這個問題",
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      "start": 513.019,
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      "text": "日元跌到了163接近164了",
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    {
      "start": 516.199,
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      "text": "進口物價在上漲民生受壓",
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      "start": 518.779,
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      "text": "這是日本的事情啊",
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    {
      "start": 520.039,
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      "text": "美國為什麼會著急",
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    {
      "start": 521.339,
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      "text": "美國為什麼要親自下場呢",
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      "start": 523.539,
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      "text": "難道日元的問題演變成美國的問題了",
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      "start": 526.299,
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      "text": "沒錯",
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      "text": "而且呢",
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      "start": 528.119,
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      "text": "答案還藏在一個大多數人平常不會關注的市場裡面",
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    {
      "start": 532.299,
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      "text": "美國的國債市場",
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      "start": 533.919,
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      "text": "先給一個前提",
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      "text": "日本政府要把跌到163將近164的這個日元給救回來",
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      "start": 540.539,
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      "text": "辦法只能是出手買日元",
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      "start": 543.199,
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      "text": "道理我們前面講過",
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      "start": 544.639,
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      "text": "自由市場上的一個東西買的多價格自然就上去了",
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      "text": "那麼用什麼買呢",
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      "text": "只能用美元買",
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      "text": "這就要求日本政府手裡",
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      "start": 552.419,
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      "text": "得有足夠多的美元",
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      "start": 554.059,
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      "text": "但是日本的美元",
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      "text": "主要以什麼形式存在呢",
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      "text": "答案是1.14兆美元的美國國債",
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    {
      "start": 561.139,
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      "text": "按照傳統的做法",
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      "text": "日本要拿到足夠的美元現金",
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      "start": 565.779,
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      "text": "把這些美債賣掉一部分",
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      "text": "就換回美元現金",
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      "start": 569.579,
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      "text": "問題就來了",
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      "text": "日本賣美債",
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      "start": 572.399,
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      "text": "為什麼會傷到美國呢",
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      "text": "這裡需要三分鐘",
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      "start": 575.239,
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      "text": "講清楚一個基本的概念",
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      "start": 576.859,
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      "text": "債券價格和直利率的這個關係",
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      "text": "理解了這個關係",
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      "text": "許多國際金融現象了",
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      "text": "一張面額100塊的債券",
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      "text": "到期還你100塊",
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      "text": "外加5塊錢的利息",
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      "text": "回報率這是多少",
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      "text": "是美國所有貸款利率的定價基準",
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      "text": "我們要明白銀行的邏輯",
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      "text": "世界上最安全的資產",
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      "text": "而借給一個普通人買房買車",
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      "text": "這個利率就只能比買美債的利率要高",
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      "text": "所以呢假如日本自救大量拋售美債來換美元",
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      "text": "而美債的價格一下跌",
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      "text": "美債值利率從5%漲到了6% 7%",
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      "text": "銀行一看無風險買美債都能賺個6%到7%",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07466357838023793,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1988262813011907e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3623188405797102
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    {
      "start": 692.419,
      "end": 694.499,
      "text": "那麼房貸車貸信用卡",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2892880339732127e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3621794871794872
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    {
      "start": 694.499,
      "end": 696.979,
      "text": "還有銀行的貸款就必須要提升",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2892880339732127e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3621794871794872
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    {
      "start": 696.979,
      "end": 697.779,
      "text": "水漲船高",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2892880339732127e-11,
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    {
      "start": 697.779,
      "end": 700.139,
      "text": "必須要漲到8%到10%",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 700.139,
      "end": 700.739,
      "text": "那這樣一來",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2892880339732127e-11,
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    {
      "start": 700.739,
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      "text": "普通美國人的房貸不就立刻飆升了",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2892880339732127e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3621794871794872
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    {
      "start": 703.479,
      "end": 705.359,
      "text": "企業的成本不就立刻增加了",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3621794871794872
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    {
      "start": 705.359,
      "end": 706.039,
      "text": "那怎麼辦",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2892880339732127e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3621794871794872
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    {
      "start": 706.039,
      "end": 707.499,
      "text": "只有裁員或者破產",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
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    {
      "start": 707.499,
      "end": 710.219,
      "text": "那美國本土這不就金融海嘯了嗎",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 710.219,
      "end": 714.599,
      "text": "這就是為什麼日元的危機牽動著美國的命門",
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    {
      "start": 714.599,
      "end": 717.159,
      "text": "美國出手還有第二個動機",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
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    {
      "start": 717.159,
      "end": 718.119,
      "text": "簡單交代一下",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
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    {
      "start": 718.119,
      "end": 721.059,
      "text": "日元最近三年內貶值了將近三成",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10520917625837428,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3621794871794872
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    {
      "start": 721.059,
      "end": 723.999,
      "text": "等於日本所有的商品進入美國市場時",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1521376734602295e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879
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    {
      "start": 723.999,
      "end": 725.619,
      "text": "變相打了七折",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10141091482979911,
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    {
      "start": 725.619,
      "end": 729.299,
      "text": "這就直接抵消了川普政府關稅政策的效果",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.1521376734602295e-11,
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    {
      "start": 729.299,
      "end": 730.259,
      "text": "匯率不管住",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10141091482979911,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1521376734602295e-11,
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    {
      "start": 730.259,
      "end": 732.959,
      "text": "他的那個關稅加的再高等於白加",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10141091482979911,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1521376734602295e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3048780487804879
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    {
      "start": 732.959,
      "end": 734.859,
      "text": "還有一個背景需要補上",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10141091482979911,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1521376734602295e-11,
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    {
      "start": 734.859,
      "end": 737.659,
      "text": "7月30號也就是聯合行動的前一天",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.10141091482979911,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.1521376734602295e-11,
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    {
      "start": 737.659,
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      "text": "日本已經獨自進場干預過一次了",
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    {
      "start": 740.659,
      "end": 741.419,
      "text": "這一天呢",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "start": 741.419,
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      "text": "日本投入了6兆到8.45兆的日元",
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    {
      "start": 743.839,
      "end": 744.939,
      "text": "單日記錄啊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.10141091482979911,
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    {
      "start": 744.939,
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      "text": "結果是市場只回調了一下",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 747.359,
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      "text": "空頭沒有退場",
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    {
      "start": 748.779,
      "end": 750.119,
      "text": "還在不斷的做空",
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    {
      "start": 750.119,
      "end": 753.819,
      "text": "所以你看光靠日本單獨單邊的干預",
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    {
      "start": 753.819,
      "end": 755.099,
      "text": "極限就是這樣了",
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    {
      "start": 755.099,
      "end": 757.919,
      "text": "所以到了7月31號這點早上",
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    {
      "start": 757.919,
      "end": 760.459,
      "text": "美國面臨著一到兩難的題目",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3389261744966443
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    {
      "start": 760.459,
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      "text": "不幫日本呢",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3389261744966443
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    {
      "start": 761.859,
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      "text": "日本只能繼續賣美債",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 763.839,
      "end": 765.339,
      "text": "那美國會不會反噬",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 765.339,
      "end": 766.539,
      "text": "而幫日本呢",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3389261744966443
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    {
      "start": 766.539,
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      "text": "等於美國政府親手干預這個匯率",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 768.879,
      "end": 771.299,
      "text": "這是美國幾十年來公開反對",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 771.299,
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      "text": "並且呢經常用來指責別國的這種行為",
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    {
      "start": 774.379,
      "end": 775.759,
      "text": "那怎麼辦呢",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11001615813284209,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0735702257735902e-11,
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    {
      "start": 775.759,
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      "text": "還好美國人手裡啊",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3389261744966443
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    {
      "start": 777.659,
      "end": 778.859,
      "text": "還有一件工具",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.11001615813284209,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.0735702257735902e-11,
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    {
      "start": 778.859,
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      "text": "這件工具還是2020年疫情期間發明的",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 782.819,
      "end": 785.099,
      "text": "這個工具叫FEMA回購機制",
      "chunk": 1,
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    {
      "start": 785.099,
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      "text": "運作方式很簡單",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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      "start": 786.419,
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      "text": "日本手裡的美債不賣了",
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    {
      "start": 788.599,
      "end": 791.139,
      "text": "而是作為抵押品交給美聯儲",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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    {
      "start": 791.139,
      "end": 794.639,
      "text": "美聯儲拿到日本的這一批美債抵押品之後",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07605536778767903,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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    {
      "start": 794.639,
      "end": 797.639,
      "text": "直接就向日本提供短期美元貸款",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.07605536778767903,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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    {
      "start": 797.639,
      "end": 798.899,
      "text": "干預結束之後",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07605536778767903,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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    {
      "start": 798.899,
      "end": 802.099,
      "text": "日本還錢付一筆短期貸款利息",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07605536778767903,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3591549295774648
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    {
      "start": 802.099,
      "end": 803.879,
      "text": "取回原本屬於它的美債",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07605536778767903,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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    },
    {
      "start": 803.879,
      "end": 806.719,
      "text": "這樣一來不需要賣出一張美債",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.07605536778767903,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.103997015333702e-11,
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    {
      "start": 806.719,
      "end": 809.179,
      "text": "日本就能拿到大筆的現金美元",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3081761006289307
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    {
      "start": 809.179,
      "end": 811.659,
      "text": "而美國債勢也毫髮無傷",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
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    {
      "start": 811.659,
      "end": 813.019,
      "text": "是不是很好用",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3081761006289307
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    {
      "start": 813.019,
      "end": 815.159,
      "text": "那這個工具是怎麼來的呢",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3081761006289307
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    {
      "start": 815.159,
      "end": 817.379,
      "text": "2020年3月疫情爆發",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3081761006289307
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    {
      "start": 817.379,
      "end": 819.219,
      "text": "全球經濟瞬間停擺",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3081761006289307
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    {
      "start": 819.219,
      "end": 822.439,
      "text": "各國的企業銀行突然面臨著一個巨大的風險",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
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    {
      "start": 822.439,
      "end": 823.379,
      "text": "沒有收入了",
      "chunk": 1,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.08316164016723633,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.6906137947914068e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.3081761006289307
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    {
      "start": 823.379,
      "end": 825.459,
      "text": "但是到期的債務得還",
      "chunk": 1,
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      "text": "拿什麼還呢",
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      "text": "美元",
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      "text": "於是大家同時去搶美元",
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      "start": 829.639,
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      "text": "搶的人越多越恐慌",
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      "text": "就連美債這種工人最安全的資產都被拋售",
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      "start": 834.599,
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      "text": "用來換美元現金",
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      "text": "這不就又出現了剛才我們分析過的",
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      "text": "各國銀行拋美債這一幕了嗎",
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      "text": "所以當時美國政府嚇出一身冷汗",
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      "text": "美聯儲趕緊緊急創生了這個非嘛",
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      "text": "就等於說大家別再賤賣美債了",
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      "text": "把美債拿過來抵押",
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      "text": "我直接印美元現鈔借給你們",
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      "text": "這一招的效果太好了",
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      "text": "2021年也就是一年後",
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      "text": "它就從臨時措施變成了一個常設工具",
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      "text": "未來幾個月將擴大FEMA的這個規模",
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      "text": "那翻譯成市場語言就是",
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      "text": "日本政府買回日元的這個美元彈藥",
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      "text": "好",
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      "text": "這個強大的工具講完了",
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      "text": "因為啊",
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      "text": "同樣的工具放在那兒",
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      "text": "換一個人來",
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      "text": "大機率不會去用它",
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      "text": "這個人就是美國的財政部長",
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      "text": "結果真的會不一樣嗎",
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      "text": "反對行政力量直接去幹預這個匯率",
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      "text": "日元也多次暴跌",
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      "text": "耶倫每一次都不支援",
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      "text": "這一次要還是他",
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      "text": "9成9美國的反應",
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      "text": "大機率就是口頭關心一下了事",
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      "text": "但是現在的財長貝森特",
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      "text": "履歷完全不同",
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      "text": "他是對沖基金出身",
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      "text": "曾經就擔任過索羅斯基金的那個首席投資官",
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      "text": "他可是親手做過這門生意的",
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      "text": "清楚的知道外匯市場上的投機是怎麼玩的",
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      "text": "槓桿的弱點在哪裡",
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      "text": "更知道在外匯市場上預期比資金更能左右價格",
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      "start": 947.295,
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      "text": "所以他的打法跟教科書完全相反",
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      "text": "教科書會說",
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      "text": "他則完全反過來",
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      "text": "先讓市場知道我要進場規模有多大",
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      "text": "後面還有多少",
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      "text": "所以一個戲劇性的細節就出現了",
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      "text": "干預的前幾天",
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      "start": 962.655,
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      "text": "他就寫了一張紙條",
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      "text": "擺在了這個會議桌的桌上",
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      "text": "買進日元50億到100億美元",
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      "text": "放在那兒被記者拍到",
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      "text": "干預的當天",
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      "text": "他還在社交平臺上公開確認",
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      "text": "然後喊話",
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      "text": "我們會隨時擴大這個非門的規模",
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      "text": "再放話",
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      "start": 977.715,
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      "text": "絕不猶豫再次干預",
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      "start": 979.535,
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      "text": "在對沖基金這一行",
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      "start": 981.515,
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      "text": "放風讓對手知道",
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      "start": 982.975,
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      "text": "你的底牌比他厚",
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      "text": "就是一種武器",
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      "text": "但是大家別誤以為",
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      "text": "這是財長貝森特他的個人行為",
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      "text": "這次行動是有法律依據的",
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      "start": 991.315,
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      "text": "2025年9月",
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      "start": 992.515,
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      "text": "美日兩國是簽署了一個財務大臣的聯合宣告",
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      "start": 996.115,
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      "text": "雙方早在一年前就已經書面約定了",
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      "start": 998.815,
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      "text": "日元匯率出現無秩序波動的時候",
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      "text": "兩國可以協調行動",
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      "text": "也就是說授權書早就放在那了",
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    {
      "start": 1006.095,
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      "text": "講到這裡還剩最後一點疑問",
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      "text": "既然貝森特是華爾街對沖基金出身",
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      "text": "那套高調進場的打法",
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      "text": "那他以前的那些同行",
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      "text": "哪有不知道的道理呢",
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      "text": "估計很多人都能判斷出來",
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      "text": "貝森特實際動用的資金未必有多大",
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      "start": 1022.615,
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      "text": "而很大的一個成分呢",
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      "text": "他就是喊話",
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      "start": 1025.115,
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      "text": "那麼問題來了",
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    {
      "start": 1026.375,
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      "text": "既然他的前同行們看穿了",
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      "text": "那麼為什麼幾天之內空投",
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      "start": 1030.975,
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      "text": "全線撤退",
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      "start": 1031.835,
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      "text": "日元的價格迅速回升呢",
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      "start": 1033.675,
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      "text": "這個問題你搞懂了",
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      "text": "你對市場的理解會超過大多數人",
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      "start": 1038.055,
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      "text": "我們先來定義什麼叫做空",
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      "text": "做空日元的意思是",
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      "start": 1041.935,
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      "text": "借進來日元立刻賣掉",
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    {
      "start": 1043.975,
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      "text": "等它價格跌了",
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    {
      "start": 1045.335,
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      "text": "再用更低的這個價格買回來",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2290766494837957e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1047.555,
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      "text": "把借來的日元還掉",
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    {
      "start": 1049.015,
      "end": 1051.315,
      "text": "那中間這個差價不就出來了嗎",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1051.315,
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      "text": "所以啊",
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    {
      "start": 1052.435,
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      "text": "做空者的這個損益",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1080733383257772,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4158075601374571
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    {
      "start": 1053.975,
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      "text": "跟日元的價格正好相反",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1055.875,
      "end": 1057.655,
      "text": "日元跌他就賺",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1057.655,
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      "text": "日元漲呢",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1058.495,
      "end": 1059.275,
      "text": "他就虧了",
      "chunk": 2,
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    {
      "start": 1059.275,
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      "text": "理解了這個",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "compression_ratio": 1.4158075601374571
    },
    {
      "start": 1060.675,
      "end": 1061.935,
      "text": "再看下面三個機制",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
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      "no_speech_prob": 1.2290766494837957e-11,
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    {
      "start": 1061.935,
      "end": 1063.075,
      "text": "第一個機制叫槓桿",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "avg_logprob": -0.1080733383257772,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2290766494837957e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4158075601374571
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    {
      "start": 1063.075,
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      "text": "外匯投機呀",
      "chunk": 2,
      "language": "zh",
      "avg_logprob": -0.1080733383257772,
      "no_speech_prob": 1.2290766494837957e-11,
      "compression_ratio": 1.4158075601374571
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    {
      "start": 1064.715,
      "end": 1065.975,
      "text": "普遍使用高槓杆",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "text": "拿10萬美元做保證金",
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      "text": "操作200萬美元",
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      "text": "槓桿能放大收益",
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      "text": "同時也放大虧損算比仗",
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      "text": "在50倍槓桿下",
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      "text": "日元只要反向的上漲2%",
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      "text": "而7月31號那一天",
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      "text": "第二個機制",
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      "text": "在對沖基金內部",
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      "text": "當兩國的政府公開宣佈",
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      "text": "不管基金經理個人怎麼判斷",
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      "text": "你只能賺到一筆正常的收益",
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      "text": "可是要是賭錯了",
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      "text": "沒有任何一家機構會允許交易員",
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      "text": "用整個公司的存亡去賭",
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      "text": "這個過程在市場上有個名字叫嘎空",
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      "text": "看誰跑得快",
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      "text": "美國實際動用的資金可能相當有限",
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      "text": "但它改變了市場上每一個做空者的風險計算",
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      "text": "從小機率變成隨時可能的時候",
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    {
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      "text": "離場就不再是一個觀點問題",
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    {
      "start": 1195.695,
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      "text": "而是一個紀律問題",
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    {
      "start": 1196.895,
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      "text": "到這裡日元匯率保衛戰打贏了",
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    {
      "start": 1200.115,
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      "text": "一切似乎都可以結束了",
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      "start": 1202.055,
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      "text": "但是事情並沒有結束",
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    {
      "start": 1203.875,
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      "text": "英國和日本的主流財經媒體",
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    {
      "start": 1206.315,
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      "text": "產生了一個新的說法",
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    {
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      "text": "日美貨幣同盟正式成型",
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    {
      "start": 1210.955,
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      "text": "注意我們以前只聽說日美軍事同盟",
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      "text": "現在就連貨幣也要同盟了嗎",
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      "text": "這對日本來說是好事還是壞事",
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    {
      "start": 1219.435,
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      "text": "對亞洲其他的國家和地區呢",
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    {
      "start": 1221.515,
      "end": 1224.495,
      "text": "比如臺灣中國大陸又意味著什麼呢",
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    {
      "start": 1224.495,
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      "text": "首先為什麼說是同盟而不是合作呢",
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      "start": 1228.215,
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      "text": "這裡有下面這幾個依據",
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      "start": 1229.835,
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      "text": "第一是有書面授權",
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    {
      "start": 1231.555,
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      "text": "前面提到的2025年9月兩國財長的聯合宣告",
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      "language": "zh",
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      "start": 1235.115,
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      "text": "就意味著這不是一次性的救援",
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      "text": "而是事先約定好的一個框架",
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      "text": "第二是有那個常設工具就是FEMA",
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      "start": 1242.555,
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      "text": "它在擴大",
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      "text": "而且日本另外還有一項特別協議",
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    {
      "start": 1246.055,
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      "text": "和美聯儲的常設美元互換協議",
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    {
      "start": 1249.255,
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      "text": "全世界只有五個經濟體有這個待遇",
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      "text": "英日歐澳加",
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      "start": 1253.775,
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      "text": "工具一旦長射",
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      "start": 1255.935,
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      "text": "事情就隨時可以重複發生",
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      "start": 1257.915,
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      "text": "第三也是最關鍵的一條",
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      "start": 1260.355,
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      "text": "有政策繫結",
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      "text": "美國出美元它不是無償的",
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      "start": 1264.315,
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      "text": "貝森特公開提出了交換條件",
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      "text": "日本央行需要在未來幾個月深息",
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    {
      "start": 1269.055,
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      "text": "一次性的幫助叫合作",
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      "compression_ratio": 1.3061224489795917
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      "start": 1271.315,
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      "text": "但是有授權有工具",
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      "text": "有條件交換的長期安排",
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    {
      "start": 1275.215,
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      "text": "這就叫機制",
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      "start": 1276.315,
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      "text": "現在三者齊備了",
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      "start": 1278.295,
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      "text": "這不就是投盟了嗎",
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      "text": "為什麼美國要求日本升息",
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      "start": 1281.915,
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      "text": "邏輯前面已經講得很清楚了",
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    {
      "start": 1283.995,
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      "text": "因為干預只能臨時解決價格波動",
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      "text": "而兩國的利差才是根源",
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      "text": "只要日本利率還在1%",
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      "text": "美國還在3.5%以上",
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      "start": 1292.355,
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      "text": "賣日元的動力就一直存在",
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      "text": "干預的效果會被時間慢慢的磨掉",
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      "text": "要根治就必須要縮小這個利差",
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    {
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      "text": "這就又回到前面我們提到過的那個問題",
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      "text": "既然日本升息能救日元",
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      "text": "那麼為什麼30年來它就是不敢升呢",
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      "text": "有三個原因",
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      "text": "第一是債務",
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      "text": "日本政府的債務佔GDP大約260%",
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    {
      "start": 1314.555,
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      "text": "是全球主要經濟體中最高的",
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    {
      "start": 1317.275,
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      "text": "年度預算裡面有將近四分之一用來還本付息",
      "chunk": 2,
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      "text": "利率要是一升",
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      "text": "那麼日本政府的利息負擔就直接加重很多",
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      "text": "第二是經濟結構",
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      "text": "日本的低利率環境已經30年了",
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      "text": "大量的中小企業還有揹著房貸的家庭",
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    {
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      "text": "是依賴便宜資金來生存的",
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      "text": "要是這個利率快速上升",
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      "text": "第三還有歷史記憶",
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      "text": "日本也不是沒有嘗試過深息",
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      "text": "2000年2006年兩次嘗試",
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      "text": "但是兩次經濟很快都掉頭往下",
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      "start": 1351.255,
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      "text": "現在好不容易剛剛走出30年的通縮",
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      "text": "日本的央行對於深息這個心理陰影",
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      "text": "實在是太大了",
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      "text": "那講到這兒",
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      "text": "很多人可能立刻就會想起一段經歷",
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      "text": "1985年廣場協議",
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      "text": "日本同樣是為了配合美國的利益",
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      "text": "接受了日元大幅升息",
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      "text": "之後的10年",
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      "text": "日本的資產先膨脹後破裂",
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      "text": "再之後是長期的停滯",
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      "text": "相比之下",
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      "text": "這一次是機制不同",
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      "text": "方向也是相反的",
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      "text": "當年被要求升息",
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      "text": "但是貨幣政策與美國利益繫結這個結構是相似的",
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      "text": "相似到什麼程度呢",
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      "text": "會不會走向相同或者不同的結果呢",
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      "text": "它換到的東西也是實打實的",
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      "text": "美元體系最高級別的保護",
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      "text": "他都要先掂量掂量背後站著的那個美聯儲",
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      "text": "沒想到吧",
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      "text": "一個以美元和日元為核心的貨幣防禦體系",
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      "text": "就這樣在亞太成型了",
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      "text": "日美貨幣同盟對華人海外華人以及臺灣人又有什麼影響呢",
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      "text": "這對人民幣國際化又有什麼影響呢",
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      "text": "對中國的影響可以分三個方面來看",
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      "text": "這幾年部分亞太國家在考慮增加人民幣結算比重",
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      "text": "動機之一就是不滿美元利率週期反覆波動帶來的衝擊",
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      "text": "能夠在幾天之內調動理論上無上限美元的",
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      "text": "對於很多正在權衡的國家來說",
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      "text": "第二層呢",
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      "text": "人民幣的政策空間被壓縮了",
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      "text": "這裡涉及一個機制",
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      "text": "此前日元暴跌",
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      "text": "為了維持自己的出口競爭力",
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      "text": "承受著被動貶值的壓力",
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      "text": "值得您多留意",
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      "text": "下期再見",
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