Trump considering an Iran attack 'bigger than ever before'

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pay up. That's what Trump is demanding of Iran 
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as it launches new strikes tonight. In a post  
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Trump just put out, he said, quote, "Please 
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let the statement serve to represent until  
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further notice that from this point forth, 
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any and all damages done to ships, cargo,  
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or anything related there, too will be paid for 
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by Iranian money that the United States has in  
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its possession and controls. These damages 
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may be very substantial, but nevertheless,  
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this is the fair and equitable thing to do." Now,
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  it's worth noting that this is the same man who  
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said he was going to give Iran its money back as 
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part of theou, right? That was the whole thing. He  
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was giving them this money back. He actually said 
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this, "It's not our money. It's their money." And  
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we froze it at a certain point in time. It's 
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not our money. It's their money. Those are his  
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words. Now, Trump's claim about where the money 
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is going to come comes after he has just leveled  
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another massive threat, telling Axios, quote, "I 
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am considering a massive attack, bigger than ever  
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before. I am close to making a decision. We're all 
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set for it." What are you hearing about where his  
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head is tonight? And frankly, how quickly he 
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keeps changing his mind. Well, Erin, I mean,  
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as you said, it's 5 months and counting, and the 
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end is not anywhere in sight. First of all, you  
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have Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying things 
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like Iran is begging to get the table. Something  
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we've heard from President Trump, too. But then
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  President Trump today saying he doesn't think  
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Iran is ready for a deal. Even going further than 
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that, saying they need more of the same. Well,  
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more of the same likely is referring to the fact 
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that we've had 12 consecutive nights of bombings  
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in Iran. But our reporting today that the CIA and
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  the DIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, have re  
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recently assessed that this kind of bombing that 
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the US is doing every single night is unlikely  
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to move Iran's negotiating position. So what 
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exactly is it that President Trump is trying to  
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do? And we've heard this kind of rhetoric from him 
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before. Now, when we've talked to US officials,  
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they have said that Trump has yet to sign off 
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on the most aggressive military action. So,  
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is what he's trying to do get Iranians back to 
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the negotiating table? It's really unclear at this  
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point. But, as you noted, he is making all of the 
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moves, setting up for a potential uh escalation in  
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military operation. But what does that do for this 
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war in Iran? What does that do for the American  
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people? I can tell you from every conversation 
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that I have from the with the White House, with  
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White House officials, US officials, anyone close 
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to President Trump, they do not want to be talking  
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about this war. They do not want to be engaging in 
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this war. they would take a ceasefire now if they  
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could just get a ceasefire, hope for the prices to 
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kind of level and or at least go down a little bit  
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and then they could move on to talking about 
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things like the economy. That's obviously not  
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going to happen if President Trump escalates this.
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  So, is he willing to escalate this and potentially  
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even put boots on the ground? We just aren't clear 
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right now what the strategy is and we're getting  
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nothing from President Trump's orbit as to what 
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he's going to do to break this impass between  
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Iran and the United States. at this point seems 
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like it's just going to continue. Yeah. All right,  
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Kristen, thank you very much. And of course, just 
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just so much confusion on strategy and also what  
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the end goal even is uh what what they actually 
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want. Kristoff Kettle is here with the New York  
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Times. Seth Jones is also here with me and I know 
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both of you have so much new information. So,  
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Seth, can I just start with you? I know you've 
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been with and you've been speaking to senior  
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US officials. Are we about to see a massive 
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escalation here? the bigger bigger strikes,  
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bigger action than since the war began. Well, 
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Erin, only one person knows the answer to that  
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and that is President Trump right now. I will tell 
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you what the military has given him is options.  
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Uh they've given him options if he wants to open 
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up the straight. This will be risky. Uh they've  
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given him air options. They've given him air 
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plus naval options. So to put in naval vessels,  
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including potentially destroyers through the 
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straight to bring in uh tankers and others. and  
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then uh air plus naval plus ground options. So 
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the president does have options if he wants to  
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forcibly open up the straight. It does have risks.
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  That's where we're at right now. Uh which is an  
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incredible moment. Kristoff, let me ask you. 
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You did this incredible visual investigation  
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of what has actually happened. Uh destruction 
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at US military bases in the region and what's  
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happening. And with US troops dying in recent 
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days, perhaps in part because of defenses on  
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those bases being so severely compromised. Your 
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reporting is so central. So um you got images  
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that Iran had put out for propaganda purposes that 
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you then went and verified what exactly is. So,  
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damage to structures at the US air base in 
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Jordan, uh, which we're looking at right here. Uh,  
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that that as well as damage at tower 22, which 
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is a US military out outpost on the northern  
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Jordanian border up by Syria and damage to 
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US military a tent in Herbiel, Iraq up uh,  
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in in Iraqi Kurdistan. So, what were you able to 
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learn from this? What we were able to learn from  
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this is that uh, Iran has a lot of firepower left.
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  So they're able to conduct precision strikes. So  
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if you look at the satellite images, uh you see 
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that they're targeting specific radar sites,  
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drone shelters, airplane hangers, and so on. So
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  they can conduct precision strikes and inflicting  
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very heavy damage. And of course, the the most 
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severe damage happened last week on Friday when  
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several US service members were killed, were 
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killed in a terrible tragedy. By the way, I  
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will note the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,
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did  not answer the question directly whe
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n he was asked  
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yesterday if China was providing that targeting 
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information. Obviously, we have reported that  
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both China and Russia were helping provide much 
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of that information early in the war. So, Seth,  
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when you look at satellite images that you've 
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been focused on uh on the Iranian side of things,  
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right, you look at the ground there, you're 
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seeing something pretty significant in Iran.  
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Yeah, this just sort of dovetales with uh with 
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what we've just seen of damage on the US side,  
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which is we're seeing the Iranians actively 
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rebuilding like busy bees. Uh they're rebuilding  
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uh missile silos. They're they're building 
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infrastructure sites. And what's important, Aaron,  
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is that uh the Iranians have so much underground,
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  too, that that much of what they're having to do  
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in some areas is just reopen uh areas where Earth 
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has just like shut off the the tunnel. So, it's  
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like redigging excavation and and what appears to 
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be the case is a lot of the US strikes are just  
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not destroying those missile launchers. They're 
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being they're underground. The Shahed underground  
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missiles themselves, crews are ballistic 
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underground. That seems to be a strategy that  
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has been successful for the Iranians so far. Yeah.
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  And I and I'll note, Seth, from you know, from  
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your reporting and and and what we understand from 
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reporting the New York Times did about the CIA,  
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what 2/3 of the missile uh capacity was in place.
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  Those numbers though are now 6 to 8 weeks old. So,  
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who knows what has, you know, even been added 
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back on top of that. I It's obviously unclear.  
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Kristoff, you were able to verify some of the 
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uh with video some of what Iran was putting out,  
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including a video that Iran had put out showing a 
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strike on that air base in Jordan. And so you say,  
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let's just we'll show this what what looked 
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like to you that the explosion appeared to  
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be pre-fabricated housing. Um so you were able 
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to sort of match this up. So can you talk about  
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that? How you were able to match up what we're 
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actually seeing to confirm if it's real? it. So  
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it's it's a very unusual footage, right? And it's 
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actually filmed probably by a US soldier because  
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it's inside the the air base. Uh but what we are 
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doing is we use this sort of footage as well as  
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satellite imagery to match this up with each other 
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to match up buildings to uh check the damage when  
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it actually occurred. Satellite imagery allows 
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you to go back in time to make sure like a week  
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ago this building was still standing. And that's 
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how we verify and that's how we can assess both  
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the damage up close but also on on the whole base 
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in this case. Seth, how vulnerable are US troops?  
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I mean, when you think about in the early days 
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of the war when virtually every THAD uh missile  
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defense system of the that the US had in the 
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region was was taken out except for maybe one  
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and now here we are seeing strikes like Kristoff 
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is going through on that air base in Jordan where  
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US soldiers were killed in just the past few 
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days. How vulnerable are US sites? I mean,  
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how much of that missile defense and radar and 
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all of these things that they've been taking out,  
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how much of it has even been repaired on the 
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US side? Well, Aaron, uh, there does appear  
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to be some effort to repair some of what the US 
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has done, but I will tell you, I was in Europe  
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last week looking at an update on the war in 
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Ukraine. What is what is striking, that war  
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has been going on for four and a half years, is 
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the Ukrainians have been uh targeted by missiles  
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and drones for four and a half years. They have 
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their uh bases underground. Uh they've got uh a  
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range of both point and area defense, so counter 
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drone capabilities. The US should have been  
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better prepared when this war started for these 
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kinds of missiles, cruise ballistic missiles,  
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and drones. This was entirely predictable from 
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what we've seen for 4 and a half years in Ukraine  
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and how to defend against it. So having like 
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structures that are hitable uh and not underground  
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is a major lesson from the war in Ukraine that 
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was not moved over to the Persian Gulf right
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付錢。這就是特朗普對伊朗的要求
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因為伊朗今晚發動了新的襲擊。在一篇
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特朗普剛剛發布的帖子中，他說，引號，“請
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讓這份聲明作為代表，直到
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另行通知為止，從這一點開始，
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任何對船隻、貨物、
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或相關事物的損害，也都會由
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美國持有並控制的伊朗資金來支付
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這些損害
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可能非常巨大，但即便如此，
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這才是公平合理的做法。”現在，
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值得注意的是，這位也是
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曾說過要把錢退給伊朗的人，作為
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協議的一部分，對吧？這就是整件事。他
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要把這些錢退給他們。他實際上說了
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這句話，“這不是我們的錢。這是他們的錢。”並且
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我們在某個時間點凍結了它。這不是
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我們的錢。這是他們的錢。這些是他的
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話。現在，特朗普關於錢將從哪裡來的說法
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是在他剛剛發出
0:57.520–1:00.005
另一項巨大威脅之後，告訴 Axios，引號，“我
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正在考慮一次巨大的襲擊，比以往任何時候都
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大。我即將做出決定。我們都準備好了。”你今晚聽說了關於他
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頭腦的什麼情況？坦率地說，他
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改變主意有多快。好吧，艾琳，我的意思是，
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正如你所說，已經5個月了，而且
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結束還遠未顯現。首先，你
1:17.027–1:19.680
有國務卿馬可·魯比奧說的話
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像伊朗乞求回到談判桌。我們也聽過
1:21.523–1:23.520
特朗普總統說過的話。但然後
1:23.520–1:25.104
我們從川普總統那裡聽到的同一個人。但之後
1:25.104–1:27.360
伊朗還沒有準備好達成協議。甚至比這
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更進一步，說他們需要更多同樣的東西。好吧，
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更多同樣的東西很可能指的是事實
1:31.840–1:34.228
我們已經連續12個晚上在伊朗進行轟炸
1:34.228–1:37.040
。但我們今天的報導顯示，中情局和
1:37.040–1:39.920
在伊朗。但我們今天的報導指出，中情局和
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評估說，這種美國每晚都在進行的轟炸
1:44.240–1:46.915
不太可能
1:46.915–1:49.760
美國每晚都在做的每一件事，如果川普總統升級局勢，不太可能
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迫使伊朗改變談判立場。那麼，
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特朗普總統究竟想做什麼？
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我們之前聽過他這樣的言論。
1:57.453–1:59.680
現在，當我們與美國官員談話時，
1:59.680–2:02.375
他們表示，特朗普尚未批准
2:02.375–2:05.520
最激進的軍事行動。所以，
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他試圖做的是讓伊朗人回到
2:08.082–2:11.360
談判桌嗎？到目前為止，
2:11.360–2:14.160
這一點還很不清楚。但是，正如你所指出的，
2:14.160–2:17.520
他正在採取所有行動，為潛在的軍事行動升級做準備。
2:17.520–2:20.145
但這對伊朗戰爭有什麼影響？
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這對美國人民有什麼影響？
2:22.880–2:24.888
我可以告訴你，在我與白宮、
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白宮官員、美國官員、
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以及特朗普總統身邊的任何人的每一次對話中，
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他們都不想談論這場戰爭。
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他們不想參與這場戰爭。
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如果他們能達成停火，他們現在就會接受停火，
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希望價格能穩定下來，或者至少稍微下降一點，
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然後他們就可以繼續討論
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經濟等問題。這顯然不會發生，
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如果特朗普總統升級了這場衝突。
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發生。
2:47.811–2:51.120
那麼，他是否願意升級這場衝突，甚至
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可能派遣地面部隊？我們現在還不清楚
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戰略是什麼，我們也從特朗普總統周圍的人那裡
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得不到任何關於他將如何打破
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伊朗和美國之間僵局的信息。
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到目前為止，似乎只會繼續下去。是的。
3:04.436–3:07.360
好的，克里斯汀，非常感謝。當然，
3:07.360–3:09.335
策略上還有如此多的混亂，
3:09.335–3:11.520
甚至最終目標是什麼，
3:11.520–3:14.003
他們實際上想要什麼，都令人困惑。
3:14.003–3:16.880
克里斯托弗·凱特爾來自《紐約時報》。
3:16.880–3:19.178
塞思·瓊斯也在我身邊，我知道
3:19.178–3:21.680
你們兩位都有很多新資訊。所以，
3:21.680–3:23.886
塞思，我可以先從你開始嗎？
3:23.886–3:26.400
我知道你一直在與
3:26.400–3:29.572
美國高級官員會面。
3:29.572–3:33.440
我們即將看到一場規模更大的打擊，
3:33.440–3:36.361
比戰爭爆發以來更重大的行動。嗯，
3:36.361–3:39.680
艾琳，只有一個人知道答案，
3:39.680–3:41.752
那就是現在的特朗普總統。我會告訴你，
3:41.752–3:44.000
軍隊給他的選擇。
3:44.000–3:46.438
嗯，他們給了他如果他想打開
3:46.438–3:49.200
直航的選項。這將是風險。嗯，他們
3:49.200–3:51.396
給了他空中選項。他們給了他空中
3:51.396–3:54.000
加海軍的選項。所以部署海軍艦艇，
3:54.000–3:56.428
包括可能驅逐艦通過
3:56.428–3:59.120
直航來引入油輪和其他人。然後
3:59.120–4:01.929
空中加海軍加地面選項。所以
4:01.929–4:05.120
總統確實有選項，如果他想要
4:05.120–4:07.760
強制打開直航。這確實有風險。
4:07.760–4:11.280
這就是我們目前的情況。嗯，這
4:11.280–4:13.503
令人驚嘆的時刻。克里斯托夫，讓我問你。
4:13.503–4:16.080
你做了這項令人驚嘆的視覺調查
4:16.080–4:18.646
關於實際上發生了什麼。嗯，破壞
4:18.646–4:21.440
美國在該地區的軍事基地以及正在發生
4:21.440–4:23.825
什麼。並且隨著美國軍隊在近期
4:23.825–4:26.480
幾天死亡，也許部分原因是因為防禦設施
4:26.480–4:29.496
在那些基地受到嚴重損害。你的
4:29.496–4:32.640
報導非常核心。所以嗯，你獲得了圖像
4:32.640–4:35.588
伊朗為了宣傳目的發布的圖像，然後你去驗證了究竟是什麼。所以，
4:35.588–4:38.720
美國在約旦的機場設施損壞，
4:38.720–4:41.069
我們現在正在看這裡。嗯，
4:41.069–4:44.240
以及塔22的損壞，這是
4:44.240–4:47.189
美國在約旦北部邊境靠近敘利亞的軍事前哨站，以及損壞
4:47.189–4:50.480
美國在伊拉克赫爾比爾的軍事帳篷，嗯，
4:50.480–4:53.496
在伊拉克庫爾德斯坦地區。所以，你從中
4:53.496–4:56.880
學到了什麼？我們從中
4:56.880–5:00.105
學到的是，嗯，伊朗還有很多火力。
5:00.105–5:03.760
從中吸取教訓？我們從中能夠學到的是，
5:03.760–5:05.958
如果你看衛星圖像，嗯，你會看到
5:05.958–5:09.200
他們針對特定的雷達站點，
5:09.200–5:11.460
無人機機庫，飛機機庫等等。所以
5:11.460–5:14.080
他們正針對特定的雷達站，
5:14.080–5:16.520
非常嚴重的損壞。當然，最
5:16.520–5:20.240
嚴重的損壞發生在上週五，當時
5:20.240–5:22.550
造成極嚴重的損傷。當然，最嚴重的損傷發生在上週五，
5:22.550–5:25.280
當時
5:25.280–5:27.291
多名美國軍人喪生，
5:27.291–5:29.440
在一場悲慘的災難中遇難。順便一提，我
5:29.440–5:31.336
要指出國務卿馬可·魯比奧
5:31.336–5:33.282
沒有
5:33.282–5:34.400
直接回答這個問題，
5:34.400–5:36.261
昨天當他被問到中國是否提供目標定位
5:36.261–5:38.320
情報時。顯然，我們已經報導過
5:38.320–5:40.748
中國和俄羅斯在戰爭初期都協助提供大量
5:40.748–5:43.440
這類情報。所以，塞斯，
5:43.440–5:45.970
當你查看你一直關注的
5:45.970–5:48.960
伊朗方面的衛星圖像時，
5:48.960–5:50.803
對吧，你看著地面，
5:50.803–5:53.040
你在伊朗看到了相當重大的情況。
5:53.040–5:55.689
是的，這有點類似於我們剛剛看到的
5:55.689–5:58.640
美國方面的損壞情況，
5:58.640–6:01.158
也就是我們看到伊朗人正像忙碌的蜜蜂一樣
6:01.158–6:04.320
積極重建。他們正在重建
6:04.320–6:06.281
導彈發射井。他們正在建設
6:06.281–6:08.880
基礎設施地點。而重要的是，亞倫，
6:08.880–6:11.457
伊朗擁有大量的地下設施，
6:11.457–6:15.040
這也意味著他們在許多地區
6:15.040–6:18.222
不得不做的只是重新開啟那些因地球運動而關閉的隧道區域。所以，這就像
6:18.222–6:21.680
重新挖掘和挖掘，而情況似乎是
6:21.680–6:24.920
許多美國空襲並沒有摧毀那些導彈發射器。它們
6:24.920–6:28.160
位於地下。沙赫德地下
6:28.160–6:30.449
導彈本身，人員也位於地下。這似乎是
6:30.449–6:33.120
一種對伊朗人迄今為止成功的策略。是的。
6:33.120–6:35.494
並且我要指出，塞斯，根據你的
6:35.494–6:38.320
報導以及我們從《紐約時報》關於中情局的報導中了解到的情況，
6:38.320–6:40.502
三分之二的導彈容量已就位。
6:40.502–6:43.360
不過，這些數字現在已經是6到8週前的了。所以，
6:43.360–6:45.726
誰知道在那之上又增加了什麼。
6:45.726–6:48.240
顯然不清楚。克里斯托夫，你有能力用視頻驗證
6:48.240–6:51.211
伊朗發布的一些內容，
6:51.211–6:55.520
包括伊朗發布的一段視頻，顯示了一場
6:55.520–6:58.331
對約旦那個空軍基地的
6:58.331–7:01.600
空襲。所以你說，讓我們展示一下，這看起來
7:01.600–7:05.296
像是你認為爆炸似乎
7:05.296–7:09.680
發生在
7:09.680–7:12.647
包括伊朗發布的一段影片，顯示
7:12.647–7:16.000
針對約旦該空軍基地的攻擊。所以你們說，
7:16.000–7:18.190
我們就展示這個，這個看起來
7:18.190–7:20.640
對你來說，爆炸似乎
7:20.640–7:23.857
是預製房屋。嗯，所以你們能夠
7:23.857–7:27.360
大致將這些對應起來。那麼，你能談談
7:27.360–7:29.300
那個嗎？你們是如何將我們實際看到的
7:29.300–7:31.600
內容對應起來，以確認它是否真實？所以
7:31.600–7:33.931
這是一段非常不尋常的影片，對吧？而且它
7:33.931–7:36.560
很可能是由一名美國士兵拍攝的，因為
7:36.560–7:39.512
它是在空軍基地內部。但我們所做的
7:39.512–7:42.800
是，我們也使用這類影片以及
7:42.800–7:45.718
衛星影像來將它們相互對應
7:45.718–7:48.880
以對應建築物，並檢查在
7:48.880–7:51.057
實際發生時的損壞情況。衛星影像允許
7:51.057–7:53.280
你回溯時間，確保像一週前
7:53.280–7:55.567
這棟建築還矗立著。這就是我們
7:55.567–7:58.000
進行驗證的方式，這也是我們能夠評估兩者
7:58.000–8:00.718
近距離損壞以及整體基地
8:00.718–8:03.920
損壞情況的方式，在這種情況下。塞斯，美國軍隊的脆弱程度如何？
8:03.920–8:05.933
我的意思是，當你想到戰爭初期
8:05.933–8:08.320
幾乎每個THAD，嗯，導彈
8:08.320–8:10.106
防禦系統，美國在該
8:10.106–8:12.240
地區的系統都被摧毀，除了可能
8:12.240–8:14.756
一個，而現在我們看到這樣的攻擊，就像克里斯托夫
8:14.756–8:17.600
正在對約旦該空軍基地進行的那樣，在
8:17.600–8:19.978
過去幾天裡，美國士兵在那裡喪生。美國基地的脆弱程度如何？我的意思是，
8:19.978–8:22.640
他們被摧毀的那些導彈防禦和雷達以及
8:22.640–8:24.854
所有這些東西中，有多少
8:24.854–8:27.520
甚至已經在美國方面得到修復？嗯，亞倫，嗯，確實似乎
8:27.520–8:30.579
有一些努力去修復美國
8:30.579–8:34.160
所做的一些事情，但我告訴你，我上周在歐洲
8:34.160–8:36.655
查看關於烏克蘭戰爭的最新情況。令人震驚的是，這場戰爭
8:36.655–8:39.440
已經進行了四年半，
8:39.440–8:41.541
烏克蘭人已經遭受導彈
8:41.541–8:44.000
和無人機的攻擊長達四年半。他們
8:44.000–8:46.365
將他們的基地設在地下。他們擁有一套
8:46.365–8:49.280
點防禦和區域防禦系統，因此反制
8:49.280–8:52.541
以及無人機長達四年半。他們
8:52.541–8:56.320
將基地設在地下。他們擁有
8:56.320–8:58.915
點防禦和區域防禦的各種能力，因此反
8:58.915–9:01.680
無人機能力。美國應該在
9:01.680–9:04.233
這場戰爭開始時，就為這些
9:04.233–9:07.120
類型的飛彈、巡弋飛彈和彈道飛彈、
9:07.120–9:10.041
以及無人機做好更充分的準備。這完全是可預見的，
9:10.041–9:13.280
從我們在烏克蘭過去四年半所見到的
9:13.280–9:16.432
以及應對方法來看。因此，擁有
9:16.432–9:20.560
易受攻擊且非地下的
9:20.560–9:23.477
結構，是從烏克蘭戰爭中汲取的一項重大教訓，
9:23.477–9:25.920
這項教訓並未轉移至波斯灣地區
0:00.160–0:02.734
pay up. That's what Trump is demanding of Iran 
付錢。這就是特朗普對伊朗的要求
0:02.734–0:05.600
as it launches new strikes tonight. In a post  
因為伊朗今晚發動了新的襲擊。在一篇
0:05.600–0:07.952
Trump just put out, he said, quote, "Please 
特朗普剛剛發布的帖子中，他說，引號，“請
0:07.952–0:10.640
let the statement serve to represent until  
讓這份聲明作為代表，直到
0:10.640–0:12.664
further notice that from this point forth, 
另行通知為止，從這一點開始，
0:12.664–0:14.880
any and all damages done to ships, cargo,  
任何對船隻、貨物、
0:14.880–0:17.305
or anything related there, too will be paid for 
或相關事物的損害，也都會由
0:17.305–0:20.000
by Iranian money that the United States has in  
美國持有並控制的伊朗資金來支付
0:20.000–0:22.393
its possession and controls. These damages 
這些損害
0:22.393–0:25.120
may be very substantial, but nevertheless,  
可能非常巨大，但即便如此，
0:25.120–0:27.653
this is the fair and equitable thing to do." Now,
這才是公平合理的做法。”現在，
0:27.653–0:31.200
  it's worth noting that this is the same man who  
值得注意的是，這位也是
0:31.200–0:33.958
said he was going to give Iran its money back as 
曾說過要把錢退給伊朗的人，作為
0:33.958–0:37.280
part of theou, right? That was the whole thing. He  
協議的一部分，對吧？這就是整件事。他
0:37.280–0:40.326
was giving them this money back. He actually said 
要把這些錢退給他們。他實際上說了
0:40.326–0:43.760
this, "It's not our money. It's their money." And  
這句話，“這不是我們的錢。這是他們的錢。”並且
0:43.760–0:47.473
we froze it at a certain point in time. It's 
我們在某個時間點凍結了它。這不是
0:47.473–0:52.000
not our money. It's their money. Those are his  
我們的錢。這是他們的錢。這些是他的
0:52.000–0:54.618
words. Now, Trump's claim about where the money 
話。現在，特朗普關於錢將從哪裡來的說法
0:54.618–0:57.520
is going to come comes after he has just leveled  
是在他剛剛發出
0:57.520–1:00.005
another massive threat, telling Axios, quote, "I 
另一項巨大威脅之後，告訴 Axios，引號，“我
1:00.005–1:02.800
am considering a massive attack, bigger than ever  
正在考慮一次巨大的襲擊，比以往任何時候都
1:02.800–1:05.421
before. I am close to making a decision. We're all 
大。我即將做出決定。我們都準備好了。”你今晚聽說了關於他
1:05.421–1:08.320
set for it." What are you hearing about where his  
頭腦的什麼情況？坦率地說，他
1:08.320–1:11.274
head is tonight? And frankly, how quickly he 
改變主意有多快。好吧，艾琳，我的意思是，
1:11.274–1:14.640
keeps changing his mind. Well, Erin, I mean,  
正如你所說，已經5個月了，而且
1:14.640–1:17.027
as you said, it's 5 months and counting, and the 
結束還遠未顯現。首先，你
1:17.027–1:19.680
end is not anywhere in sight. First of all, you  
有國務卿馬可·魯比奧說的話
1:19.680–1:21.523
have Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying things 
像伊朗乞求回到談判桌。我們也聽過
1:21.523–1:23.520
like Iran is begging to get the table. Something  
特朗普總統說過的話。但然後
1:23.520–1:25.104
we've heard from President Trump, too. But then
我們從川普總統那裡聽到的同一個人。但之後
1:25.104–1:27.360
  President Trump today saying he doesn't think  
伊朗還沒有準備好達成協議。甚至比這
1:27.360–1:29.507
Iran is ready for a deal. Even going further than 
更進一步，說他們需要更多同樣的東西。好吧，
1:29.507–1:31.840
that, saying they need more of the same. Well,  
更多同樣的東西很可能指的是事實
1:31.840–1:34.228
more of the same likely is referring to the fact 
我們已經連續12個晚上在伊朗進行轟炸
1:34.228–1:37.040
that we've had 12 consecutive nights of bombings  
。但我們今天的報導顯示，中情局和
1:37.040–1:39.920
in Iran. But our reporting today that the CIA and
在伊朗。但我們今天的報導指出，中情局和
1:39.920–1:44.240
  the DIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, have re  
評估說，這種美國每晚都在進行的轟炸
1:44.240–1:46.915
recently assessed that this kind of bombing that 
不太可能
1:46.915–1:49.760
the US is doing every single night is unlikely  
美國每晚都在做的每一件事，如果川普總統升級局勢，不太可能
1:49.760–1:52.391
to move Iran's negotiating position. So what 
迫使伊朗改變談判立場。那麼，
1:52.391–1:55.440
exactly is it that President Trump is trying to  
特朗普總統究竟想做什麼？
1:55.440–1:57.453
do? And we've heard this kind of rhetoric from him 
我們之前聽過他這樣的言論。
1:57.453–1:59.680
before. Now, when we've talked to US officials,  
現在，當我們與美國官員談話時，
1:59.680–2:02.375
they have said that Trump has yet to sign off 
他們表示，特朗普尚未批准
2:02.375–2:05.520
on the most aggressive military action. So,  
最激進的軍事行動。所以，
2:05.520–2:08.082
is what he's trying to do get Iranians back to 
他試圖做的是讓伊朗人回到
2:08.082–2:11.360
the negotiating table? It's really unclear at this  
談判桌嗎？到目前為止，
2:11.360–2:14.160
point. But, as you noted, he is making all of the 
這一點還很不清楚。但是，正如你所指出的，
2:14.160–2:17.520
moves, setting up for a potential uh escalation in  
他正在採取所有行動，為潛在的軍事行動升級做準備。
2:17.520–2:20.145
military operation. But what does that do for this 
但這對伊朗戰爭有什麼影響？
2:20.145–2:22.880
war in Iran? What does that do for the American  
這對美國人民有什麼影響？
2:22.880–2:24.888
people? I can tell you from every conversation 
我可以告訴你，在我與白宮、
2:24.888–2:27.120
that I have from the with the White House, with  
白宮官員、美國官員、
2:27.120–2:29.234
White House officials, US officials, anyone close 
以及特朗普總統身邊的任何人的每一次對話中，
2:29.234–2:31.520
to President Trump, they do not want to be talking  
他們都不想談論這場戰爭。
2:31.520–2:33.660
about this war. They do not want to be engaging in 
他們不想參與這場戰爭。
2:33.660–2:36.080
this war. they would take a ceasefire now if they  
如果他們能達成停火，他們現在就會接受停火，
2:36.080–2:38.766
could just get a ceasefire, hope for the prices to 
希望價格能穩定下來，或者至少稍微下降一點，
2:38.766–2:41.680
kind of level and or at least go down a little bit  
然後他們就可以繼續討論
2:41.680–2:43.378
and then they could move on to talking about 
經濟等問題。這顯然不會發生，
2:43.378–2:45.440
things like the economy. That's obviously not  
如果特朗普總統升級了這場衝突。
2:45.440–2:47.811
going to happen if President Trump escalates this.
發生。
2:47.811–2:51.120
  So, is he willing to escalate this and potentially  
那麼，他是否願意升級這場衝突，甚至
2:51.120–2:53.665
even put boots on the ground? We just aren't clear 
可能派遣地面部隊？我們現在還不清楚
2:53.665–2:56.480
right now what the strategy is and we're getting  
戰略是什麼，我們也從特朗普總統周圍的人那裡
2:56.480–2:59.153
nothing from President Trump's orbit as to what 
得不到任何關於他將如何打破
2:59.153–3:02.000
he's going to do to break this impass between  
伊朗和美國之間僵局的信息。
3:02.000–3:04.436
Iran and the United States. at this point seems 
到目前為止，似乎只會繼續下去。是的。
3:04.436–3:07.360
like it's just going to continue. Yeah. All right,  
好的，克里斯汀，非常感謝。當然，
3:07.360–3:09.335
Kristen, thank you very much. And of course, just 
策略上還有如此多的混亂，
3:09.335–3:11.520
just so much confusion on strategy and also what  
甚至最終目標是什麼，
3:11.520–3:14.003
the end goal even is uh what what they actually 
他們實際上想要什麼，都令人困惑。
3:14.003–3:16.880
want. Kristoff Kettle is here with the New York  
克里斯托弗·凱特爾來自《紐約時報》。
3:16.880–3:19.178
Times. Seth Jones is also here with me and I know 
塞思·瓊斯也在我身邊，我知道
3:19.178–3:21.680
both of you have so much new information. So,  
你們兩位都有很多新資訊。所以，
3:21.680–3:23.886
Seth, can I just start with you? I know you've 
塞思，我可以先從你開始嗎？
3:23.886–3:26.400
been with and you've been speaking to senior  
我知道你一直在與
3:26.400–3:29.572
US officials. Are we about to see a massive 
美國高級官員會面。
3:29.572–3:33.440
escalation here? the bigger bigger strikes,  
我們即將看到一場規模更大的打擊，
3:33.440–3:36.361
bigger action than since the war began. Well, 
比戰爭爆發以來更重大的行動。嗯，
3:36.361–3:39.680
Erin, only one person knows the answer to that  
艾琳，只有一個人知道答案，
3:39.680–3:41.752
and that is President Trump right now. I will tell 
那就是現在的特朗普總統。我會告訴你，
3:41.752–3:44.000
you what the military has given him is options.  
軍隊給他的選擇。
3:44.000–3:46.438
Uh they've given him options if he wants to open 
嗯，他們給了他如果他想打開
3:46.438–3:49.200
up the straight. This will be risky. Uh they've  
直航的選項。這將是風險。嗯，他們
3:49.200–3:51.396
given him air options. They've given him air 
給了他空中選項。他們給了他空中
3:51.396–3:54.000
plus naval options. So to put in naval vessels,  
加海軍的選項。所以部署海軍艦艇，
3:54.000–3:56.428
including potentially destroyers through the 
包括可能驅逐艦通過
3:56.428–3:59.120
straight to bring in uh tankers and others. and  
直航來引入油輪和其他人。然後
3:59.120–4:01.929
then uh air plus naval plus ground options. So 
空中加海軍加地面選項。所以
4:01.929–4:05.120
the president does have options if he wants to  
總統確實有選項，如果他想要
4:05.120–4:07.760
forcibly open up the straight. It does have risks.
強制打開直航。這確實有風險。
4:07.760–4:11.280
  That's where we're at right now. Uh which is an  
這就是我們目前的情況。嗯，這
4:11.280–4:13.503
incredible moment. Kristoff, let me ask you. 
令人驚嘆的時刻。克里斯托夫，讓我問你。
4:13.503–4:16.080
You did this incredible visual investigation  
你做了這項令人驚嘆的視覺調查
4:16.080–4:18.646
of what has actually happened. Uh destruction 
關於實際上發生了什麼。嗯，破壞
4:18.646–4:21.440
at US military bases in the region and what's  
美國在該地區的軍事基地以及正在發生
4:21.440–4:23.825
happening. And with US troops dying in recent 
什麼。並且隨著美國軍隊在近期
4:23.825–4:26.480
days, perhaps in part because of defenses on  
幾天死亡，也許部分原因是因為防禦設施
4:26.480–4:29.496
those bases being so severely compromised. Your 
在那些基地受到嚴重損害。你的
4:29.496–4:32.640
reporting is so central. So um you got images  
報導非常核心。所以嗯，你獲得了圖像
4:32.640–4:35.588
that Iran had put out for propaganda purposes that 
伊朗為了宣傳目的發布的圖像，然後你去驗證了究竟是什麼。所以，
4:35.588–4:38.720
you then went and verified what exactly is. So,  
美國在約旦的機場設施損壞，
4:38.720–4:41.069
damage to structures at the US air base in 
我們現在正在看這裡。嗯，
4:41.069–4:44.240
Jordan, uh, which we're looking at right here. Uh,  
以及塔22的損壞，這是
4:44.240–4:47.189
that that as well as damage at tower 22, which 
美國在約旦北部邊境靠近敘利亞的軍事前哨站，以及損壞
4:47.189–4:50.480
is a US military out outpost on the northern  
美國在伊拉克赫爾比爾的軍事帳篷，嗯，
4:50.480–4:53.496
Jordanian border up by Syria and damage to 
在伊拉克庫爾德斯坦地區。所以，你從中
4:53.496–4:56.880
US military a tent in Herbiel, Iraq up uh,  
學到了什麼？我們從中
4:56.880–5:00.105
in in Iraqi Kurdistan. So, what were you able to 
學到的是，嗯，伊朗還有很多火力。
5:00.105–5:03.760
learn from this? What we were able to learn from  
從中吸取教訓？我們從中能夠學到的是，
5:03.760–5:05.958
this is that uh, Iran has a lot of firepower left.
如果你看衛星圖像，嗯，你會看到
5:05.958–5:09.200
  So they're able to conduct precision strikes. So  
他們針對特定的雷達站點，
5:09.200–5:11.460
if you look at the satellite images, uh you see 
無人機機庫，飛機機庫等等。所以
5:11.460–5:14.080
that they're targeting specific radar sites,  
他們正針對特定的雷達站，
5:14.080–5:16.520
drone shelters, airplane hangers, and so on. So
非常嚴重的損壞。當然，最
5:16.520–5:20.240
  they can conduct precision strikes and inflicting  
嚴重的損壞發生在上週五，當時
5:20.240–5:22.550
very heavy damage. And of course, the the most 
造成極嚴重的損傷。當然，最嚴重的損傷發生在上週五，
5:22.550–5:25.280
severe damage happened last week on Friday when  
當時
5:25.280–5:27.291
several US service members were killed, were 
多名美國軍人喪生，
5:27.291–5:29.440
killed in a terrible tragedy. By the way, I  
在一場悲慘的災難中遇難。順便一提，我
5:29.440–5:31.336
will note the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,
要指出國務卿馬可·魯比奧
5:31.336–5:33.282
did  not answer the question directly whe
沒有
5:33.282–5:34.400
n he was asked  
直接回答這個問題，
5:34.400–5:36.261
yesterday if China was providing that targeting 
昨天當他被問到中國是否提供目標定位
5:36.261–5:38.320
information. Obviously, we have reported that  
情報時。顯然，我們已經報導過
5:38.320–5:40.748
both China and Russia were helping provide much 
中國和俄羅斯在戰爭初期都協助提供大量
5:40.748–5:43.440
of that information early in the war. So, Seth,  
這類情報。所以，塞斯，
5:43.440–5:45.970
when you look at satellite images that you've 
當你查看你一直關注的
5:45.970–5:48.960
been focused on uh on the Iranian side of things,  
伊朗方面的衛星圖像時，
5:48.960–5:50.803
right, you look at the ground there, you're 
對吧，你看著地面，
5:50.803–5:53.040
seeing something pretty significant in Iran.  
你在伊朗看到了相當重大的情況。
5:53.040–5:55.689
Yeah, this just sort of dovetales with uh with 
是的，這有點類似於我們剛剛看到的
5:55.689–5:58.640
what we've just seen of damage on the US side,  
美國方面的損壞情況，
5:58.640–6:01.158
which is we're seeing the Iranians actively 
也就是我們看到伊朗人正像忙碌的蜜蜂一樣
6:01.158–6:04.320
rebuilding like busy bees. Uh they're rebuilding  
積極重建。他們正在重建
6:04.320–6:06.281
uh missile silos. They're they're building 
導彈發射井。他們正在建設
6:06.281–6:08.880
infrastructure sites. And what's important, Aaron,  
基礎設施地點。而重要的是，亞倫，
6:08.880–6:11.457
is that uh the Iranians have so much underground,
伊朗擁有大量的地下設施，
6:11.457–6:15.040
  too, that that much of what they're having to do  
這也意味著他們在許多地區
6:15.040–6:18.222
in some areas is just reopen uh areas where Earth 
不得不做的只是重新開啟那些因地球運動而關閉的隧道區域。所以，這就像
6:18.222–6:21.680
has just like shut off the the tunnel. So, it's  
重新挖掘和挖掘，而情況似乎是
6:21.680–6:24.920
like redigging excavation and and what appears to 
許多美國空襲並沒有摧毀那些導彈發射器。它們
6:24.920–6:28.160
be the case is a lot of the US strikes are just  
位於地下。沙赫德地下
6:28.160–6:30.449
not destroying those missile launchers. They're 
導彈本身，人員也位於地下。這似乎是
6:30.449–6:33.120
being they're underground. The Shahed underground  
一種對伊朗人迄今為止成功的策略。是的。
6:33.120–6:35.494
missiles themselves, crews are ballistic 
並且我要指出，塞斯，根據你的
6:35.494–6:38.320
underground. That seems to be a strategy that  
報導以及我們從《紐約時報》關於中情局的報導中了解到的情況，
6:38.320–6:40.502
has been successful for the Iranians so far. Yeah.
三分之二的導彈容量已就位。
6:40.502–6:43.360
  And I and I'll note, Seth, from you know, from  
不過，這些數字現在已經是6到8週前的了。所以，
6:43.360–6:45.726
your reporting and and and what we understand from 
誰知道在那之上又增加了什麼。
6:45.726–6:48.240
reporting the New York Times did about the CIA,  
顯然不清楚。克里斯托夫，你有能力用視頻驗證
6:48.240–6:51.211
what 2/3 of the missile uh capacity was in place.
伊朗發布的一些內容，
6:51.211–6:55.520
  Those numbers though are now 6 to 8 weeks old. So,  
包括伊朗發布的一段視頻，顯示了一場
6:55.520–6:58.331
who knows what has, you know, even been added 
對約旦那個空軍基地的
6:58.331–7:01.600
back on top of that. I It's obviously unclear.  
空襲。所以你說，讓我們展示一下，這看起來
7:01.600–7:05.296
Kristoff, you were able to verify some of the 
像是你認為爆炸似乎
7:05.296–7:09.680
uh with video some of what Iran was putting out,  
發生在
7:09.680–7:12.647
including a video that Iran had put out showing a 
包括伊朗發布的一段影片，顯示
7:12.647–7:16.000
strike on that air base in Jordan. And so you say,  
針對約旦該空軍基地的攻擊。所以你們說，
7:16.000–7:18.190
let's just we'll show this what what looked 
我們就展示這個，這個看起來
7:18.190–7:20.640
like to you that the explosion appeared to  
對你來說，爆炸似乎
7:20.640–7:23.857
be pre-fabricated housing. Um so you were able 
是預製房屋。嗯，所以你們能夠
7:23.857–7:27.360
to sort of match this up. So can you talk about  
大致將這些對應起來。那麼，你能談談
7:27.360–7:29.300
that? How you were able to match up what we're 
那個嗎？你們是如何將我們實際看到的
7:29.300–7:31.600
actually seeing to confirm if it's real? it. So  
內容對應起來，以確認它是否真實？所以
7:31.600–7:33.931
it's it's a very unusual footage, right? And it's 
這是一段非常不尋常的影片，對吧？而且它
7:33.931–7:36.560
actually filmed probably by a US soldier because  
很可能是由一名美國士兵拍攝的，因為
7:36.560–7:39.512
it's inside the the air base. Uh but what we are 
它是在空軍基地內部。但我們所做的
7:39.512–7:42.800
doing is we use this sort of footage as well as  
是，我們也使用這類影片以及
7:42.800–7:45.718
satellite imagery to match this up with each other 
衛星影像來將它們相互對應
7:45.718–7:48.880
to match up buildings to uh check the damage when  
以對應建築物，並檢查在
7:48.880–7:51.057
it actually occurred. Satellite imagery allows 
實際發生時的損壞情況。衛星影像允許
7:51.057–7:53.280
you to go back in time to make sure like a week  
你回溯時間，確保像一週前
7:53.280–7:55.567
ago this building was still standing. And that's 
這棟建築還矗立著。這就是我們
7:55.567–7:58.000
how we verify and that's how we can assess both  
進行驗證的方式，這也是我們能夠評估兩者
7:58.000–8:00.718
the damage up close but also on on the whole base 
近距離損壞以及整體基地
8:00.718–8:03.920
in this case. Seth, how vulnerable are US troops?  
損壞情況的方式，在這種情況下。塞斯，美國軍隊的脆弱程度如何？
8:03.920–8:05.933
I mean, when you think about in the early days 
我的意思是，當你想到戰爭初期
8:05.933–8:08.320
of the war when virtually every THAD uh missile  
幾乎每個THAD，嗯，導彈
8:08.320–8:10.106
defense system of the that the US had in the 
防禦系統，美國在該
8:10.106–8:12.240
region was was taken out except for maybe one  
地區的系統都被摧毀，除了可能
8:12.240–8:14.756
and now here we are seeing strikes like Kristoff 
一個，而現在我們看到這樣的攻擊，就像克里斯托夫
8:14.756–8:17.600
is going through on that air base in Jordan where  
正在對約旦該空軍基地進行的那樣，在
8:17.600–8:19.978
US soldiers were killed in just the past few 
過去幾天裡，美國士兵在那裡喪生。美國基地的脆弱程度如何？我的意思是，
8:19.978–8:22.640
days. How vulnerable are US sites? I mean,  
他們被摧毀的那些導彈防禦和雷達以及
8:22.640–8:24.854
how much of that missile defense and radar and 
所有這些東西中，有多少
8:24.854–8:27.520
all of these things that they've been taking out,  
甚至已經在美國方面得到修復？嗯，亞倫，嗯，確實似乎
8:27.520–8:30.579
how much of it has even been repaired on the 
有一些努力去修復美國
8:30.579–8:34.160
US side? Well, Aaron, uh, there does appear  
所做的一些事情，但我告訴你，我上周在歐洲
8:34.160–8:36.655
to be some effort to repair some of what the US 
查看關於烏克蘭戰爭的最新情況。令人震驚的是，這場戰爭
8:36.655–8:39.440
has done, but I will tell you, I was in Europe  
已經進行了四年半，
8:39.440–8:41.541
last week looking at an update on the war in 
烏克蘭人已經遭受導彈
8:41.541–8:44.000
Ukraine. What is what is striking, that war  
和無人機的攻擊長達四年半。他們
8:44.000–8:46.365
has been going on for four and a half years, is 
將他們的基地設在地下。他們擁有一套
8:46.365–8:49.280
the Ukrainians have been uh targeted by missiles  
點防禦和區域防禦系統，因此反制
8:49.280–8:52.541
and drones for four and a half years. They have 
以及無人機長達四年半。他們
8:52.541–8:56.320
their uh bases underground. Uh they've got uh a  
將基地設在地下。他們擁有
8:56.320–8:58.915
range of both point and area defense, so counter 
點防禦和區域防禦的各種能力，因此反
8:58.915–9:01.680
drone capabilities. The US should have been  
無人機能力。美國應該在
9:01.680–9:04.233
better prepared when this war started for these 
這場戰爭開始時，就為這些
9:04.233–9:07.120
kinds of missiles, cruise ballistic missiles,  
類型的飛彈、巡弋飛彈和彈道飛彈、
9:07.120–9:10.041
and drones. This was entirely predictable from 
以及無人機做好更充分的準備。這完全是可預見的，
9:10.041–9:13.280
what we've seen for 4 and a half years in Ukraine  
從我們在烏克蘭過去四年半所見到的
9:13.280–9:16.432
and how to defend against it. So having like 
以及應對方法來看。因此，擁有
9:16.432–9:20.560
structures that are hitable uh and not underground  
易受攻擊且非地下的
9:20.560–9:23.477
is a major lesson from the war in Ukraine that 
結構，是從烏克蘭戰爭中汲取的一項重大教訓，
9:23.477–9:25.920
was not moved over to the Persian Gulf right
這項教訓並未轉移至波斯灣地區

影片筆記：Trump considering an Iran attack 'bigger than ever before'

一句話總結

影片分析指出，儘管特朗普威脅進行「前所未有的大規模攻擊」並要求伊朗賠償，但情報評估認為持續轟炸未能改變伊朗立場；同時，美國在中東的軍事基地防禦薄弱且未從烏克蘭戰爭吸取教訓，面臨伊朗精確打擊與地下設施保護的雙重挑戰，導致美國內部策略混亂。

核心重點

  1. 談判僵局與軍事升級：特朗普要求伊朗賠償對美國船隻和貨物的損害，並威脅進行比過去更大規模的攻擊，但 CIA 與 DIA 評估認為目前的每晚轟炸不太可能改變伊朗的談判立場。
  2. 美國內部策略分歧：白宮部分官員希望立即停火以穩定油價並轉向經濟議題，但特朗普的升級行動阻礙了這一點，且目前尚不清楚特朗普是否願意派遣地面部隊。
  3. 伊朗的反制與防禦能力：伊朗仍具備精確打擊能力，針對雷達站和無人機機庫等目標；同時積極重建地下設施（如導彈發射井），保護 Shahed 導彈和彈道導彈人員，使許多美國轟炸未能達成摧毀效果。
  4. 美國基地的脆弱性：美國在中東的基地（如約旦空軍基地、Tower 22、伊拉克赫爾比爾）遭受損壞，THAAD 防禦系統在戰爭初期幾乎被全部摧毀。專家指出美國未能從烏克蘭戰爭中吸取教訓，未將設施地下化，導致對導彈、巡航導彈和無人機的防禦準備不足。

詳細大綱

1. 特朗普的賠償要求與威脅

  • 特朗普發布聲明，要求伊朗使用美國扣押的資金，賠償對船隻、貨物及相關物品的損害。
  • 特朗普向 Axios 表示，考慮進行「比過去更大規模的攻擊」，並稱已做好準備，接近做出決定。
  • 提及特朗普過去曾承諾歸還伊朗資金（文中提及 "part of theou, right?"，疑為特定協議或口誤）。

2. 美國內部策略混亂與談判僵局

  • 國務卿 Marco Rubio 表示伊朗「乞求回到談判桌」，但特朗普認為伊朗未準備好，需要「更多同樣的（轟炸）」。
  • CIA 和 DIA 評估認為，目前的每晚轟炸不太可能改變伊朗的談判立場。
  • 白宮官員不願談論戰爭，希望立即停火以穩定油價，隨後轉向經濟議題，但特朗普的升級行動阻礙了這一點。
  • 目前不清楚特朗普是否願意升級衝突或派遣地面部隊（boots on the ground）。

3. 軍事選項與伊朗的反制能力

  • 特朗普擁有軍事選項：打開海峽（Straight）的風險選項、空中選項、海軍選項（包括驅逐艦和油輪）、以及空海陸綜合選項。
  • 伊朗仍保留大量火力，能進行精確打擊，針對雷達站、無人機機庫等特定目標。
  • 伊朗積極重建基礎設施，包括導彈發射井和地下設施，許多美國轟炸未能摧毀位於地下的 Shahed 導彈和彈道導彈人員。

4. 美國基地的脆弱性與防禦問題

  • 記者 Kristoff Kettle（New York Times）通過衛星影像和視頻驗證了美國在約旦（Jordan）空軍基地、Tower 22（約旦北部邊境哨所）和伊拉克赫爾比爾（Herbiel）的設施損壞。
  • 近期數名美國軍人在約旦空軍基地的襲擊中喪生。
  • 美國在中東的 THAAD（薩德）導彈防禦系統在戰爭初期幾乎被全部摧毀，僅剩一個。
  • 專家 Seth Jones 指出，美國未能從烏克蘭戰爭（持續四年半）中吸取教訓，未將基地設施地下化，導致對導彈、巡航導彈和無人機的防禦準備不足。

工具 / 模型 / 名詞整理

  • THAAD：美國在中東部署的導彈防禦系統。
  • Shahed：伊朗使用的導彈型號（文中提及 "Shahed underground missiles"）。
  • CIA：美國中央情報局。
  • DIA：美國國防情報局（Defense Intelligence Agency）。
  • Axios：媒體機構，特朗普向其發表言論。
  • New York Times：媒體機構，記者 Kristoff Kettle 所屬單位。
  • Marco Rubio：美國國務卿。
  • Seth Jones：專家，評論美國防禦策略。
  • Kristoff Kettle：記者，通過衛星影像驗證設施損壞。

操作流程整理

  • 美國軍事行動流程：
  1. 特朗普發布聲明要求賠償。
  2. 執行每晚轟炸行動。
  3. 評估伊朗談判立場變化（CIA/DIA 評估認為無變化）。
  4. 考慮升級軍事選項（海峽、空中、海軍、空海陸綜合）。
  5. 伊朗進行精確打擊反制，並重建地下設施保護導彈。
  6. 美國基地（約旦、伊拉克）遭受損壞，防禦系統（THAAD）失效。

值得注意的限制或風險

  • 防禦系統失效風險：THAAD 系統在戰爭初期幾乎被全部摧毀，僅剩一個，顯示現有防禦體系在中東的脆弱性。
  • 情報評估與決策脫節：CIA 和 DIA 評估認為當前轟炸無法改變伊朗立場，但特朗普仍傾向於升級衝突，顯示情報與決策之間可能存在落差。
  • 基地生存能力風險：美國未能從烏克蘭戰爭中吸取教訓，未將基地設施地下化，導致對導彈、巡航導彈和無人機的防禦準備不足，面臨高損傷風險。
  • 油價與經濟穩定風險：白宮官員希望停火以穩定油價，但升級行動可能加劇油價波動，影響經濟議題轉向。

逐字稿辨識疑點

  • theou：逐字稿中提及 "part of theou, right?"，疑為特定協議名稱、口誤或聽寫錯誤，需查證。
  • Straight：文中多次提及 "open up the straight" 和 "through the straight"，疑為 "Strait"（海峽，如霍爾木茲海峽）的聽寫錯誤。
  • Herbiel：文中提及 "US military a tent in Herbiel, Iraq up uh, in in Iraqi Kurdistan"，疑為地名聽寫錯誤，需查證伊拉克庫爾德斯坦地區具體地點名稱。
  • Earth：文中提及 "areas where Earth has just like shut off the the tunnel"，疑為口誤或聽寫錯誤，語境不通，需查證。
  • crews are ballistic underground：文中提及 "Shahed underground missiles themselves, crews are ballistic underground"，語法與邏輯疑點，需查證原意。
  • 2/3 of the missile uh capacity：文中提及 "what 2/3 of the missile uh capacity was in place"，語句不完整或聽寫不清，需查證。

可延伸追問

  • 特朗普所指的「比過去更大規模的攻擊」具體包含哪些軍事選項？
  • 伊朗如何保護其地下導彈設施免受美國轟炸？
  • 美國為何未能從烏克蘭戰爭中吸取教訓，將基地設施地下化？
  • 白宮官員希望停火穩定油價，但特朗普為何拒絕立即停火？
  • THAAD 系統被摧毀後，美國在中東的防禦策略將如何調整？

生字列表

生字讀音類型中文
pay upペイ アップ動詞句付錢；清償債務
launchローンチ動詞發動；發起；發射
further noticeフーザー ノティス名詞句另行通知
damagesダメージズ名詞損害賠償金；損失
substantialサブスタンシャル形容動詞大量的；重大的；實質的
neverthelessネヴァーザレス副詞然而；不過
levelレベル動詞指控；提出（批評或指責）
escalateエスカレート動詞升級；惡化
impassインパス名詞僵局；死胡同
precision strikeプレシジョン ストライク名詞句精確打擊
vulnerableヴァルネラブル形容動詞脆弱的；易受攻擊的
predictableプレディクタブル形容動詞可預見的；可預測的

生字解說

pay up ペイ アップ

動詞句 · N3

意思：付錢；清償債務

解說：口語用法，指必須支付應付的款項，常帶有被迫或最終必須承擔責任的語氣。

影片原句
pay up. That's what Trump is demanding of Iran
付錢。這就是特朗普對伊朗的要求
延伸例句
彼は借金を全てpay upした。
他付清了所有的債務。

launch ローンチ

動詞 · N2

意思：發動；發起；發射

解說：指開始進行軍事行動、攻擊或發射飛彈等。

影片原句
as it launches new strikes tonight.
因為伊朗今晚發動了新的襲擊。
延伸例句
会社は新しい製品をlaunchした。
公司推出了新產品。

further notice フーザー ノティス

名詞句 · N2

意思：另行通知

解說：直到收到進一步的通知為止，常用於官方聲明或公告中。

影片原句
until further notice that from this point forth
直到另行通知為止，從這一點開始，
延伸例句
休館はfurther noticeまで延期された。
休館延長至另行通知。

damages ダメージズ

名詞 · N2

意思：損害賠償金；損失

解說：法律用語，指因侵權或違約而需賠償的金額或損失。

影片原句
any and all damages done to ships, cargo
任何對船隻、貨物、
延伸例句
彼は事故のdamagesを請求した。
他請求了事故的損害賠償。

substantial サブスタンシャル

形容動詞 · N2

意思：大量的；重大的；實質的

解說：形容數量、價值或重要性很大。

影片原句
These damages may be very substantial
這些損害可能非常巨大，
延伸例句
彼はsubstantialな進歩を遂げた。
他取得了實質性的進步。

nevertheless ネヴァーザレス

副詞 · N2

意思：然而；不過

解說：表示轉折，儘管前文所述情況如此，但後文情況依然成立。

影片原句
but nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do.
但即便如此，這才是公平合理的做法。
延伸例句
雨は降っている。 nevertheless、彼は外出した。
雖然下著雨，但他還是出門了。

level レベル

動詞 · N2

意思：指控；提出（批評或指責）

解說：常與against連用，表示對某人提出指控或指責。

影片原句
he has just leveled another massive threat
是在他剛剛發出另一項巨大威脅之後，
延伸例句
彼は彼に犯罪をlevelした。
他指控他犯罪。

escalate エスカレート

動詞 · N2

意思：升級；惡化

解說：指衝突、戰爭或情況變得更加嚴重或激烈。

影片原句
if President Trump escalates this.
如果特朗普總統升級了這場衝突。
延伸例句
紛争がescalateした。
衝突升級了。

impass インパス

名詞 · N1

意思：僵局；死胡同

解說：指無法前進或達成協議的狀態，通常指談判或局勢陷入停滯。

影片原句
break this impass between Iran and the United States.
打破伊朗和美國之間僵局的信息。
延伸例句
交渉はimpassに陥った。
談判陷入了僵局。

precision strike プレシジョン ストライク

名詞句 · N1

意思：精確打擊

解說：軍事用語，指使用精確制導武器對特定目標進行攻擊，以減少附帶損害。

影片原句
So they're able to conduct precision strikes.
他們針對特定的雷達站點，無人機機庫，飛機機庫等等。所以他們正針對特定的雷達站，
延伸例句
軍はprecision strikeを実行した。
軍隊執行了精確打擊。

vulnerable ヴァルネラブル

形容動詞 · N2

意思：脆弱的；易受攻擊的

解說：指容易受到傷害、攻擊或影響的狀態。

影片原句
Seth, how vulnerable are US troops?
塞斯，美國軍隊的脆弱程度如何？
延伸例句
この建物は地震にvulnerableだ。
這棟建築對地震很脆弱。

predictable プレディクタブル

形容動詞 · N2

意思：可預見的；可預測的

解說：指可以根據現有信息或情況提前預知結果。

影片原句
This was entirely predictable from what we've seen
這完全是可預見的，從我們在烏克蘭過去四年半所見到的
延伸例句
彼の行動はpredictableだった。
他的行動是可預見的。

句型解說（含實例）

serve to + 動詞原形

意思：作為……的作用；起到……的效果

接續：serve to + V(原形)

解說：表示某事物具有某種功能或作用，通常用於正式或書面語境。

影片原句
let the statement serve to represent until further notice
讓這份聲明作為代表，直到另行通知為止，
實例
  1. この規則は安全をserve to確保する。
    這項規則起到確保安全的作用。
  2. 彼の発言は警告をserve to伝える。
    他的言論起到傳達警告的作用。

from this point forth

意思：從今以後；從這一點開始

接續：from this point forth + 文

解說：表示從現在開始的未來時間點，常用於聲明或規定中。

影片原句
from this point forth, any and all damages
從這一點開始，任何對船隻、貨物、
實例
  1. from this point forth、彼は真実を話す。
    從今以後，他說真話。
  2. from this point forth、このルールが適用される。
    從現在開始，適用此規則。

worth + V-ing

意思：值得……

接續：worth + V-ing

解說：表示某事物具有某種價值或意義，值得去做。

影片原句
it's worth noting that this is the same man
值得注意的是，這位也是
實例
  1. この映画は見るworthがある。
    這部電影值得看。
  2. 彼は助けるworthがある人だ。
    他是個值得幫助的人。

as part of

意思：作為……的一部分

接續：as part of + 名詞

解說：表示某事物是更大整體或協議的一部分。

影片原句
as part of theou, right?
作為協議的一部分，對吧？
實例
  1. 彼はチームの一員としてpart of活動している。
    他作為團隊的一部分進行活動。
  2. これは計画の一部としてpart of実行された。
    這作為計劃的一部分被執行。

considering + 名詞/動名詞

意思：考慮到……；鑑於……

接續：considering + N/V-ing

解說：表示基於某種情況或事實進行判斷或決定。

影片原句
I am considering a massive attack
正在考慮一次巨大的襲擊，
實例
  1. considering彼の経験、彼は優秀だ。
    考慮到他的經驗，他很優秀。
  2. considering天気、外出はやめよう。
    考慮到天氣，我們還是別出門了。

be about to + 動詞原形

意思：即將……；快要……

接續：be about to + V(原形)

解說：表示即將發生某事，強調時間上的緊迫性。

影片原句
Are we about to see a massive escalation here?
我們即將看到一場規模更大的打擊，
實例
  1. 彼は出発するabout toだ。
    他即將出發。
  2. 雨が降るabout toだ。
    馬上要下雨了。

be able to + 動詞原形

意思：能夠……

接續：be able to + V(原形)

解說：表示有能力或條件去做某事。

影片原句
So they're able to conduct precision strikes.
他們針對特定的雷達站點，無人機機庫，飛機機庫等等。所以他們正針對特定的雷達站，
實例
  1. 私は日本語を話すableだ。
    我能說日語。
  2. 彼は問題を解決するableだ。
    他能解決問題。